Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week SIX

[AFLGuru]

Rosey--

It's near instantaneous from line opening to the beginning of line movement. I don't have the quickness, nor the internet connection to take care of my personal bets, post the lines, and post the plays before the lines spike. And even if I did, your fellow "rx"ers will be pounding the lines as well, as seen by some of these movements. Just keep heeding my advice and things should work out fine. Pinny will likely keep opening up the lines before anyone else because the lines move to the proper lines very quickly with very little money. Any bet can trigger a line movement. I post here around 1:00 every Tuesday after the lines open up, and at times, even I miss some of the best lines as well because of Tuesday classes.

Two-Niner--

Pinnacle is funny about selling points. They don't mind because of the MASSIVE rake they end up taking the more points you buy and sell. Catches us for them quick. And I don't mind selling points in certain spots either, as you all have witnessed by my first 5 weeks of betting here.

 

[Rosey]

Hey Guru, and thanks for replying so quickly. I noticed in one of your write-ups that you said by playing in Tampa, (for the Storm), it's worth 4 points alone. I was wondering if you could give me a breakdown of what points you add on per every home teams arena? Much appreciated....good luck on that midterm...late. :toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Rosey, if you would unlock the ability for me to email you off of your public profile, I'd be happy to email it to you. However, I don't want to put such information out on the boards since I am already aware of one linesmaker in Vegas and one for a sportsbook that float around these boards... No need to give them any more of my information! And this isn't meant to sound harsh or anything like that... but these aren't hard stats that are available. Most of the stats I use to judge teams aren't just right at hand. They are tracked by individually watching or tracking each game and taking notes as I go... that's why we have such in depth analysis of games on here. Because this way, you all are just seeing my notes, sans a few stats that I am jotting off to the side. I type faster than I write anyway, so it helps me out as well.

Cheers!
AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Cure for Arizona's ailment? Why don't cut just cut the face of your franchise why don't ya? Hunkie Cooper was released today, in a move that really wasn't surprising at all. Cooper has had almost no role for the Rattlers this year short of emotional and will likely remain on staff as some form of an offensive assistant.

 

[Rosey]

I went into my profile and switched it up. The administrators should give you the thumbs up to reach me now....thx boss....:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Rosey... when I click on your profile, it doesn't give me the authority to view your email... if I can get a hold of your email address, I'd gladly send you the info.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Don't fear Jim Kubiak going on IR... Matt Nagy did alright last week and should do okay this week as well against another crappy team. It's a mild concern, but Georgia's defense should still role like they did to Vegas.

In other injury news... Omarr Smith is out for San Jose against Orlando, which should help Joe Hamilton a bit.... Henry Douglas is officially questionable against Nashville... but that's a screwed up report because Leon Murray should be on there somewhere. I'm pretty sure that Nashville has already announced that Zimmerman is starting again this week, but I'll look up on that. Nothing else major strikes me.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Rosey]

I think it should be squared away now...if not, I give up...LOL. Sorry for clogging the thread with this BS...:drink:

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, Jim Kubiak tore his ACL like I thought when I heard about the injury in the first place. So it's Matt Nagy all the way. This is where stars are born in the AFL. If it weren't some dude named Kurt Warner getting shipped to the NFL, we never would've heard of this guy named Aaron Garcia either... Look, Matt Nagy's almost certainly no Aaron Garcia, but he's the better QB in the game. Still: No regrets on this line. Georgia should smoke a poor Columbus team very early.

 

[TOMMYB]

My Number Says You Are Right But I Am Staying Away For 1 More Week In Backing Geo. Last Week When Kubiak Went Down Nagy Didn't Have Time To Think About Going In And Playing , Now He Has All Week To Think About It And He May Come In Up Tight And Have A Mediocre Game. He Might Win It But May Not Cover , So I Will Just Watch How He Plays Here. Good Luck With Your Bet.

 

[AFLGuru]

Matt Nagy doesn't think, c'mon! Lol

Anyway, you might be right about Nagy, but he gets the pleasure of watching his defense dismantle Columbus' offense from the sidelines, which can be a big boost to a quarterback's confidence. I'm not betting this game because of Matt Nagy... I'm betting it IN SPITE of Matt Nagy.

--AFLGuru

 

[TOMMYB]

I'm Just Curious What Your Plans Are After College . You Seem To Have A Gift For Handicapping , At Least For The Arena League , Any Thoughts On A Web Site Of Your Own Or A Sports Service ? Maybe Just A Football Service , There Are People That Just Specialize In The Football End Of Handicapping .


If You Feel This Is Too Personal , Just Ignore It And I Will Understand.

 

[AFLGuru]

Tommy--

Still got a long time to worry about that... 3 more years in undergrad and at least 2 in grad school gives me quite some time to worry about pro or anything like that.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

I mentioned a new experiment... Turns out the vast majority of the time the teams are laying at least a TD... so my thoughts ended up being quelled... Oh well. The facts are still there, and those are what matters. Vegas laying a TD right now is a solid number, with or without Clint Dolezel.

 

[AFLGuru]

Week 6 Roster Changes

Nashville makes themselves more potent on the offensive end by signing Travis McGriff and Steve Fleschman... Fleschman will suit up this week against his former team, the Chicago Rush, who released him this week... Arizona signs K Steve McLaughlin, who will surely do better than he did in Orlando....

Honestly, the more Nashville does, the more I am sold that this team can legit pull an upset here in Chicago... Rush are in disarray, and though I could totally see this being a "getting better" game for Chicago, I can also see them very easily falling flat on their faces and making Ditka wonder why he bought into this mess... lol... Okay, Chicago is a franchise far from a mess... But until Philyaw looks good, Douglas gets healthy, and the team starts playing like a team on a consistent basis, and not just in the "big" games, they're prone for a massive upset.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Some interesting propositions to choose from this week... I think we've got some great value here again.

Over 5.5 home teams to win in week 6 (1 unit +135): We've got some gimmes this week on the slate. Tampa, Vegas, Chicago, and Georgia should all hold serve fairly easily. That being said, we need two of the following 4 FAVORITES to win outright... Philly hosting New York (don't think it's gonna happen), Dallas hosting New Orleans (distinct possibility), Orlando hosting San Jose (also a distinct possibility), and Arizona hosting Los Angeles (a game I believe the home side to win). This being said, I believe we have EXTREME value in taking 2 out of 4 of these teams at on average -125 to win outright at the given odds here. Small play because of the fact that it's a prop, but something that I think is going to happen... I think 7 of the 8 win actually, but that's just me.

Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INTs (2 units +114): Stolen prop at these odds. Philly's defense is disgusting. They haven't stopped anyone this year... With Garcia having thrown 60+ on the board the past two weeks, I don't see that trend stopping. Philly is going to get thrown on, and 65 isn't out of the question. Garcia will still make his mistake or two during the game, leaving us at him throwing for 5 or 6 TDs with odds? Too easy not to play. The only fear involved that keeps me from making this a 3 unit play (the max you'll see me put on a prop) is Graziani not keeping this game close. But if it stays close, let the shoot-out begin. Game could sail into the 120 range very easily, but with the way NYs defense has played thus far, Graziani may be made to look a fool like Bonner last week. With the variables at hand, I believe New York and over are the right leans, but that the play in this game is this prop as long as Garcia is still picking apart 5'10" DBs with his 6'2" WRs.

Also a note... tonight I'll have some live updates, but I'm also starting to pack to go home for the break. You won't hear much from me again until Tuesday. I'll try my best to post a recap here Sunday night, but since I'm going to be at the Preds game, I'm not going to be able to give updates on anything else. Leave questions as you will and I'll try my best to get to them, but I won't be permanently glued to the internet at home like I am up here at college.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[KillerInstinct]

Guru, you still love TB? Thinking of pounding them on the moneyline at -430. Any thoughts? thanks!

 

[AFLGuru]

Some pretty inevitable things have happened with these lines. As mentioned in TommyB's thread, this seemingly happens every week when all of the book release their lines. People try creating middles and scalps all over the place, which is why I feel these lines are regulating themselves quickly. Here's what I'll say...

You're stealing Tampa at the current value of -11.5. Absolutely stealing them. Tampa rolls people at home, and this number shouldn't be a problem to cover as much as 14, though I believe they hammer that down as well.

In tonight's action... Vegas drops to -6. I don't want to say that this is a blatent steal as well, but the Gladiators are winning games on this stretch by more than that... Austin should prove no different.

Orlando's up to -3, which I believe is a mistakes, but some folks I've spoken to otherwise on both coasts disagree... They think the Jungle is winning this one for Orlando going away. I hope they're right, but I'm not sure about it.

Georgia finally dove a few points due to the 7.5 number they'll probably stay right around. It's a solid number, but I can see why people are jumping Columbus... still stuck on the Matt D'Orazio bandwagon.

Nashville's up to +8 because of the signings... That's not enough points for me, so disregard my possible play on Tommy's thread. Not at this number. 11 is fine, 10 is okay... 8 isn't enough.

If you have any questions, fire today or tonight or forever hold your peace! Nah, I'll be around Saturday night for sure if it's on Sunday's games. Not gonna pass up this New Orleans/Dallas game. Should be fun to track.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Go for it Killer... Tampa can't lose this puppy cock game at home.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

3/4 Arena

BACKED AUSTIN AND UNDER ALSO:drink: