Note: If you're hitting Tampa, hit them now... I estimate them to close -3 or so. I can't bring myself to it... Gonna be rooting like hell for Georgia. Big card here to discuss... what's one more....
Adding: Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids (2.5 units +108)
Sunday Card
Orlando (-9.5) vs. Los Angeles (3 units -105): Had this game tabbed for awhile now. The impressive performance against Austin didn't help my case any in this game. This play is only three units because of Remy Hamilton... Dude can hit cross-bar every damn time on a kickoff, and Jarrian James still can't field the ball off of the damn net. Anyway, LA plays a wicked style of football much like Orlando... take your shots down field at every chance and try to play good defense. The difference here? Cross country flight for LA at an early start time for them (9:00 AM WST, noon EST) in the Jungle, against a team that plays their style better than they do. This game has all of the makings of a real nasty and ugly game, especially since these two teams really don't like each other very much. Orlando's had LA's number over the past few years, beating them in LA to clinch a playoff birth last year, and having the beaten the year before if Kenny McEntyre doesn't run an onside kick in for a TD. Game means much more to Orlando than it does LA, though both teams are in the thick of a playoff fight. I think we're seeing that the 3 teams that Orlando lost to are all pretty damn good squads in Dallas, Georgia, and San Jose, while LA's losses and close calls have been to lesser competition (though beating Georgia). I think the superior team reigns, and the game shouldn't be very close.... three stops should be the difference in this one... Preds by about 17 in a bigtime statement game heading into Tampa next week.
Orlando/LA under 93.5 (3.5 units -105): Just slightly more confidence that Orlando isn't scoring 50 in this game... Hell, Tampa only scored 4 TDs against LA, and two of those were absolutely in crap time....
Philly/Columbus over 101 (4 units -105): I think this is going to be a cupcake game. Philly's offense hasn't been stopped since Trigg got fired. Philly's defense hasn't stopped anyone since their inception to the league. No problem. Both sides should reach 50 in this one, even if Vena/D'Orazio DOES turn the ball over 4 or 5 times. More turnovers = more TDs in the 2nd half of this one. I'll take my chances on a Philly over this low.
Nashville (pk) @ Grand Rapids (2.5 units +108): Alright Nashville, you've got ONE more shot to impress me. One more... ya hear me? Anyway, Nashville comes into the game having screwed us over against Arizona. Not only did they have the game covered, they had it won... and pissed it away at the end. My goodness, don't let them do that this week... But the truth of the matter says here... I'll take the better 1-7 team. Grand Rapids is pretty putred and this Nashville team is still showing more spunk than most 1-7 teams do at this point of the season. STILL sold that this team is playing spoiler the rest of the way and doing it well. Too much talent on that team on both sides of the ball. If Austin can go into Grand Rapids and win, so can Nashville. I'll take my chances for a relatively small play in the middle of the Sunday card.
Vegas (+7) @ Colorado (2 units -105): Vegas proved they can play with anyone when they came back on San Jose, despite giving up 81 points. The truth here says they were dominated in the first half, but came back REALLY strong at the end of the 3rd quarter and really perhaps should have won this game. Colorado comes off of a big victory @ Dallas. I think perhaps Colorado used a bit too much energy in that game against Dallas, though they have a longer week than that of Vegas. Colorado, though a tough place to play, has already been snakebit at home this year by Chicago, and very well could see the same thing happen to them at home against a fiesty Vegas team, who's defense is nowhere near this bad. Colorado has had problems scoring lately, and a couple stops should keep Vegas within the number, if not winning the game outright. Still, out of respect for the Pepsi Center, only a 2 unit play with perhaps a half unit or so going on Vegas moneyline later in the week.
Vegas/Colorado under 106.5 (3 units -105): Thank you San Jose for giving me this generous line. If you don't drop 81 on Vegas, I can't get anywhere near the 101-102 I had this game tabbed at. Once again, Colorado has had problems finding the end zone lately, though having played 3 straight pretty formidable foes defensively (Nashville, Columbus, and Dallas). Vegas' offense appears to be clicking at the right time, but it's their defense that is struggling... But in retrospective, short of that Arizona game, the rest of the points have come against quality opponents. This is still a swarming defense. I'm afraid of the Colorado hurry up to start the game off, but if the first half yields less than 56 and they're right about on pace on the scoreboard, this should turn out alright for us.
San Jose (-13) vs. Arizona (5 units -105): Throw the records out in this game folks. I know what you're gonna say here... I can already hear it. San Jose shouldn't be laying this many points to an arch rival that will give it their all to beat them. But let's remember a few things... San Jose remembers that they had to play the Arena Bowl in Arizona last year when Arizona beat them in San Jose (and Arizona for what it's worth). That Arizona team was left for dead last year at that time, and came back to host the Arena Bowl. However... no Bonner, no Cooper, no Danny White. Enter: Todd Shell, Joe Germaine, and the high flying Rattlers on their record 1 game winning streak. In all seriousness though, this game caters right to the strengths of San Jose. Germaine wants to go deep. San Jose will play bump and run and pressure him. Arizona wants to keep receivers in front of them. Rashied Davis will run circles around them. LOVE the spot of the Saberkitties here to continue the cover streak by whooping up on a team that they would LOVE to whoop more than anyone else. I expect this to be close through 3, but San Jose to pull away at the end, just like they ultimately did to Vegas this week... but don't expect 81 again from the Cats... that was ridiculous.
--AFLGuru:toast:
