Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 9

[AFLGuru]

Friday Night Card

Biggie game with Colorado tonight...

Colorado (+4.5) @ Dallas (3 units -105)
Clay Rush successful FG (+8.5 yards) vs. longest TD pass (3 units -108)Colorado (+45 NET passing yards) vs. Dallas (1.5 units -108)

Also, there's the game I can't bet in good conscious....

Austin (+11) @ Orlando (3 units -105)

The props' odds aren't exactly to my liking anymore, with both paying something like -135, which is ridiculous. However, I still think they're both good plays if you want to make them smaller plays. Your plays for tonight, though... are clearly taking Austin, currently +10.5 and Colorado, currently +3.

Best tonight as always-
--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[MathProf]

Thx for dropkick info! I suspect that this is a "lost art"

 

[AFLGuru]

Really do think we're gonna get late steam on this Austin team and still can't believe it hasn't hit yet. I think the Colorado line will stay right about where it is. So if you had to pick the play for tonight with probably the best shot at winning for your buck... Probably Austin. Rare chance where I won't help move the line... lol. So go for it ladies and gents. I'll be pulling for the Preds to win by less than 10 for you all. But get your best line regardless.

 

[AFLGuru]

Thx for dropkick info! I suspect that this is a "lost art"

Or an art never acquired...

 

[AFLGuru]

Couple ml plays here for small amounts...

Grand Rapids (ml) @ Philadelphia (1 unit +194)
Columbus (ml) vs. New York (1/2 unit +229)
Las Vegas (ml) vs. San Jose (1/2 unit +140)

 

[AFLGuru]

And one other thing... If you're taking Nashville now... go with 'em on the moneyline. Sell 'em down to a pick 'em on Pinny at +121. Still a SOLID percentage play on a team I had as a favorite. Sorry, that's the last dipcrap post for awhile.

 

[olddog]

Orlando Secondary

Guru - you stated, "Because that'll make 3 of Orlando's 8 playing out of position on defense. Michael Brown, a WR by trade, is switching to DS to replace McEntyre. This new guy is replacing Mason."

Per an article in today's Orlando Sentinel, "Kenny McEntyre has been cleared to play after suffering a neck injury. He'll line up alongside newcomer Johnnie Harris to make what may be the league's best defensive specialist tandem." The 'new guy' is John Harris, who is older, but has 5 yrs NFL experience and the Arena Football League's 1998 defensive player of the year. That year, Harris set single-season records with 33 pass defenses and 11 interceptions.

So if 'D' wins games in the AFL as you stated above and Orlando is tough at home, they may cover the big number that probably won't go down much as you suggested. Also, Orlando's 'D' is rated #3 in the AFL right behind #2 Dallas that gave Fitzgerald fits and held Austin to 28 pts. Finally, Austin's 'D' is rated next to last in the AFL ahead of only Grand Rapids.

(Speaking of GR Bishop really struggled running (5 yds on 3 carrie or vice versa) last week as he injured his hammy, so I'd also be careful of jumping on GR until I knew Bishop's hammy conditon as he isn't a very good passer).

 

[AFLGuru]

The report yesterday that McEntyre has been cleared to play I thought was nuts when I first read it. My dad back home says McEntyre's practiced all week, but looks shaky, especially trying to get on the same page with Harris. I expect Austin to exploit this very early against Orlando. And having watched Orlando's defense play... unless Harris is going to be an "enforcer" over the middle, the patented Orlando zone isn't working tonight. Getting to Fitzgerald is the only key, and the Orlando pass rush hasn't been GREAT since the Tampa game. Still don't like the spot the Preds are in here, and I'm usually pretty good with the Preds... Especially coming off of two massive games and that meeting @ Tampa lurking around the corner.

Thanks for the insight. Didn't know Bishop was nagged at all with an injury to be honest with ya. Still... if he's got his cannon locked and loaded, Chris Jackson goes nuts and GR wins the game. Not so much the feet when the protection from your offensive line is there, and with Philly's undersized linemen (and with no speed), Bishop's hammy shouldn't be a problem unless he should be sitting for it.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Stickie]

Guru, you forgot your Orl/Austin over 97.5 play in Friday's Card.

 

[MathProf]

Just noticed AFL prop at Pinny-

Guru, what do you think ? seems good if you like LV:
Winner of SJ-LV game less than 8.5points (-105)

Coversgood nos., from SJ by 8 to LV by 8

 

[AFLGuru]

Crap you're right Sticky. Nice job. So the Friday card SHOULD read....

Friday Night Card

Colorado (+4.5) @ Dallas (3 units -105)
Clay Rush successful FG (+8.5 yards) vs. longest TD pass (3 units -108)Colorado (+45 NET passing yards) vs. Dallas (1.5 units -108)
Orlando vs. Austin over 97.5 (2.5 units -105)

and the "no soul bet"

Austin (+11) @ Orlando (3 units -105)

Thanks buddy.

 

[AFLGuru]

I'll be here in about 25 more minutes for the Preds game on AFLNet if anyone else is gonna be around. Sure you will be Tommy and gang, but I've gotta take roll call anyway... lol

 

[TOMMYB]

Ill Be A Little Late, Got To Run An Errend.

 

[scottw]

McEntyre is playing. They introduced him last.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright buddy, lemme know when you get back... or if anyone else gets here, let me know and I'll start giving the updates. Kenny McEntyre is definitely playing though... tough s.o.b.

 

[AFLGuru]

Scott, I'm assume you're watching on AFLNet? Because the game shouldn't be on TV anywhere I don't believe.

 

[scottw]

Yep, AFL net. And I'll have COL-DAL on TV in an hour on FOX.

 

[AFLGuru]

Sweet. I'll let you take care of the Dallas/Colorado game then if you don't mind.

 

[AFLGuru]

If I hear "Orlando Predators... presented by Hummer" one more time, I'm gonna KILL someone... my Kenny McEntyre jersey that I'm wearing doesn't say that on it... it says Orlando Predators. Stop this crapola...

 

[scottw]

Did you miss the first score too? Damn, another night of skipping video.