History of Offense vs. Defense in the AFL
*Only start reading this if you actually care about the history of the AFL and why some teams are way more successful than others in the league... it'll take ya awhile... took my about 30 minutes just to type out*
Glen Parker wrote a great piece last season about offenses in the AFL.
You run one of two offenses. I don't remember the names of them, but one
is a methodical offense that requires larger, possession type receivers
who can jump over their defenders and break tackles. The other is a
"shoot it out" offense that requires faster receivers that can run by
their defender on a deep route, whether it be a post, corner, or flag.
Offense A (possession offense) and Offense B (shoot it out) are proven to
be equally effective.
HOWEVER... The most efficient play in the entire AFL is??? WR screen.
That's right. The wide receiver screen. It's proven that a WR screen is
near impossible to intercept because of respect for the deep ball and
averages over 6 yards per attempt at it. This is a great strategy to use
for a few reasons... first off, it is almost impossible for something to
go horrifically wrong. It's a very high percentage pass with almost no
room for interception or sack. However, with low risk comes low reward.
This is the basis of offense A. 3 step drops with quick slants, curls,
and screens to your WRs that are too slow to make it in the NFL, but have
a big size advantage over their opposing DBs in most cases. Classic WRs
that fit this mold include Cory Fleming, Chris Jackson, Thabiti Davis,
and Etu Molden. Running the ball is also a must. Unfortunately, a lot
of teams have taken the screen out of the arsenal, meaning more slants
and curls, which ARE subject to being jumped by gambling DBs. I'll
return to this in a minute to explain why offenses are trumped by GOOD
defenses.
Offense B, in my opinion, is ridiculous. These are the offenses that
average insane yards per dropback/pass. Almost exclusive a 5 step drop
offense, which gives up many sacks, but also forces DBs into coverage
longer. Higher risk and higher reward. Receivers to small to be in the
NFL are used to run fly patterns on near every play. Tampa is beginning
to run this offense. Philly does. Grand Rapids does. Vegas does, but
only with Dolezel at QB (and Marcus Nash is an exception to the "small
WR" rule... there's a reason he was an NFL WR first), Arizona uses it.
And you see what all of their records are, right? Sure, there are teams
that have used this offense quite successfully, but you have to go back
to the Grand Rapids Rampage of '01-'02 and then back to the Kurt
Warner-led Iowa Barnstormers to find the last championships this offense
has won. Basically all of your tiny WRs are the prototypical Offense B
receivers.
Now, why defense will ALWAYS rule the day in the AFL... We all know that
this is a game of serve and volley. Break your opponent's serve, and
you're way ahead in the game. Offense A tries making it so there are
8-10 legit full offensive possessions for each team in a game. Offense B
tries making that number 10-12.
So how to counter offense A? ANY decent coordinator will just look at
tape of the early 90s Predators and Storm, where the WR screen was almost
eliminated from the AFL. Orlando was the first team in the AFL to use
the idea of press coverage. Durwood Roquemore was THE defensive
specialist in the AFL at the time, and made Orlando's defense go.
Orlando would tell offense A, which most teams ran at the time, to go
ahead and throw deep. Orlando was the first defense to take away the WR
screen by playing all DBs at the line. But the trick in this, was after
the intial bump, Orlando would back away into zone, much line the
Sabercats have done these past couple weeks. They wouldn't blitz the
mack linebacker, which would take away any quick crossing patterns. This
eliminates either the X or Y receiver from the play. The yo-yo receiver
(the one in motion) is almost always the deep threat on the play. He
should always be matched up with the best DB. The yo-yo almost always
lines up next to the receiver that is running the crossing, check down
pattern. That being said, the DB on the X or Y can easily switch into
man coverage with the yo-yo, with a deep safety covering. By this time,
the QB is on WR option 3, the X or Y that isn't running the cross. Most
of the time they are running a quick out, which is a purely timing route
disrupted by the bump coverage. By the time the QB figures this all out,
it's a sack or a bad throw. Nothing the offense did wrong. Everything
the defense did right. And every offense did it the same way. Not to
say it was a flawless defense, but Orlando averaged giving up less than
40 points per game in those seasons, including pitching the only shut out
in AFL history, holding 5 teams at or under 10 points, and hold many more
with less than 3 scores.
After teams figured out that they can't work this offense on Orlando, a
genius named Danny White came up with the idea of sending multiple men
into deep routes that cross each other down the field. This would cross
up the deep safety and leave someone uncovered. This is a very easy
thing to do. Send your yo-yo on a corner and your X/Y on a post. Leave
yourself a check down and you've got Orlando's (and by this time, most
everyone's decent defensive) scheme burned. In '93, Orlando won 13 games
by an average of over 20 ppg. They lost twice that year... @ Danny
White's Rattlers, and hosting the Arena Bowl against Danny White's
Rattlers. Both times, the same thing got Orlando... Hunkie Cooper
running those damn crossing routes that would cross up Roquemore. This
opened up an age of high flying AFL scores. Games were played in the
130s consistently after this for quite some time... that is until the
dawn of the true pass rushing lineman and linebacker.
This idea was created by John Gregory, Iowa's coach in the Kurt Warner
era. His offense was high flying and could drop 70 on anyone, but had a
tough time stopping the same offense on the other side of the field. He
decided that he was determined to stop this deep ball madness, and
decided to bring in some smaller, yet faster linemen. What he found was
a loophole in the AFL rules. Linemen would always line up parallel to
each other... What Gregory found was only a portion of your body, any
part of it needs to be in line with the offensive lineman. Once the ball
is snapped, you can rush as wide as you want. So Gregory created a more
modern pass rush in the AFL. His quicker linemen reeked tons of havoc on
QBs that would try these 5 step drops, a requirement for the crossing
patterns. He let his bigger linemen of before play mack linebacker and
give them a running start before making contact with anyone. Should a QB
try throwing a check down pass, the pocket was collapsing on him, and any
lineman could easily tip the ball at the line. Should he try throwing
deep, he'd better have a good offensive line, or he'd be in trouble.
Teams nowadays with the really good defenses run a hybrid of this. They
all know that there are about 10 plays in Offense A's playbook and
Offense B's playbook, and everyone in the AFL knows it. Yeah, there are
trick plays up everyone's sleeve, and they almost always work... but for
the most part, it's the same bullcrap 10-12 plays. So you're not fooling
a defense with your offensive alignments or routes. The offense though,
needs to guess right with its specific playcall on any given play. If a
defense thinks they're preparing for a dominant offense A playbook, a
bump and run, gambling style is the ticket. However, on those plays that
offense A tries turning into offense B... QB better be ready to read 3
DBs really quickly. Don't get me wrong... there is no exclusive offense
A or offense B... Everyone runs a bit of a hybrid... but there's two
bases. And defenses know what's coming. The KEY to all of this is
having the guys to run bump and run, having the linemen to rush the
passer, having the mack linebacker, arguably the most important position
on the defense, to be able to be a coverage, zone backer, and a monster
blitzer. Look at all of the teams with the greatest defenses in the
AFL... Orlando, had three monster mack linebackers before trading Grant.
Nashville: Alexander is a beast. New Orleans last year... Dan Curran.
Chicago last year. McGourty and McMillan. These guys aren't just
fullbacks. These guys can rush the passer like its no one's business.
Every thinks that Soul Train is so good in Philly because he demolishes
people when he runs... but he's too slow to play mack linebacker, thus
he's useless. That's the reason the line gets no pressure on the QB.
And in this game, regardless... all it takes is one stop sometimes.
That's all it takes. Because though offense B is more flashy and is
running less plays, thus giving less room for error, those plays are all
lower percentage plays. You wouldn't believe that Orlando runs offense
B, but they do. And they don't do it very well thanks... Offense A is
clearly the better offense in the AFL. It's more prone to fumbles and
4th downs, yes. But offense A will keep your quarterback standing and
will likely be fewer picks unless your QB is all-world. It's why
Graziani was good in LA. It's why Garcia is good in NY. It's why Warner
was good in Iowa. It's why Dolezel was good in Grand Rapids. They were
good. They were freaks. But if you don't have a freak QB that is THAT
good... and no one does in the AFL right now except New York, this is a
game that defenses win with their styles, not offenses with theirs.
And to say that the kicking game doesn't mean anything... tell that to
offense A when they've gotta run 20 more yards after the kick team leaves
them on their own 5 yard line to start drives. Remember, kicking a FG is
only half a stop, not a full stop. Missing a FG is as good as a
turnover. Kicking is worth a solid 10% of the game. Defense is worth
40%. Offense is worth 25%, namely your QB being the majority of the
importance. Coaching is 20%. The last 5% is that element of the AFL
that makes the game so exciting... it's called Lady Luck. And I don't
care HOW good you are. If you don't have that 5% on your side at times,
you can't win the Arena Bowl. THAT'S the element of the "bad beat" in gambling that also applies to winning the games.
--AFLGuru:toast:
arty: 
