Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 9

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You play... to win... the game
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<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>451</TD><TD width=185>Austin Wranglers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>452</TD><TD width=185>Orlando Predators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-11</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>101</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:30 pm Week 9 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>453</TD><TD width=185>Colorado Crush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>454</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Desperados</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>103½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Saturday, March 26, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 9 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>455</TD><TD width=185>New York Dragons</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>102½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>456</TD><TD width=185>Columbus Destroyers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 9 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>457</TD><TD width=185>Grand Rapids Rampage</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>458</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Soul</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>117</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:00 pm Week 9 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>459</TD><TD width=185>Georgia Force</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>460</TD><TD width=185>New Orlean VooDoo</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-5</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>103</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>10:30 pm Week 9 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>463</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-2½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>109</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Waiting on the LV game
 

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Hate to say this, but the best OLY line might be Austin +11... Orlando's D is in bad bad shape right now
 

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Here's The Rest

Gr R 116
Phil -9

Geo 103
No -6.5

Az 97
Nash -1

Tb -2.5
La 108.5

Sj -3
Lv 107.5
 

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Yeah, none of this is a real surprise... Nashville's back to +2... I really expect this game to close where it belongs... PICK 'EM.

Vegas has shot up to -4.5, New Orleans down to 3.. Interesting that GR is now -6 on Olympic, which might force Pinny to move off of that 7 number.
 

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Wish I were still living in Vegas with my Stardust phone account. Georgia +6.5 at the Dust. That will be gone in a few minutes.
 

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Don't be surprised if N.O. covers any number thrown on the board... that's why I haven't hit the game... Georgia's too good, but it's another team that's not real road tested yet. New Orleans HAS to win this game by at least 3 to win the tiebreak with Georgia, so the line is about right.
 

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Okay, looks like the lines have stablized on both sites...

Very small scalp on Georgia (+3 +111) @ Pinny and New Orleans (-3 -110), but that's it for now... usually we've got a few more than this... Obviously if you jumped the lines earlier, you made out a bit better with your scalps than at the current moment. I blew it and should have jumped Georgia at the 5. Knew that line was settling back down though I think New Orleans is gonna win the game by just enough.
 

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Pinny just refuses to move Grand Rapids to the implied +6.5 and Nashville to the implied +2.5... Sure they will with time. But at these numbers, even at -125, Nashville looks good at +3.5 and Grand Rapids looks good at +7 (-111)
 

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I'm not officially adding it to my card because I have a conscious, but if I were a bettor with no team I'd take...

Austin (+11) @ Orlando (3 units -105)

Again, I'm not counting this in the records because I'm not betting it, but it's what I would do if I had no soul for my Preds. I hope this bet wins with the Preds winning even by the smallest of margins... But the Preds aren't blowing anyone away right now, especially with no defensive specialists healthy that aren't brand freakin' new to the team.

Also note that this line is on Olympic, though I almost recommended taking Austin last night at 8.5... the extra 2.5 points was a dead give away. I'd say Austin is good til about 7 on the books.
 

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I just hope ORL wins but doesn't cover. I have AUS +11 and AUS under 6 wins.
 

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More on the game from Austin's standpoint...

Fitzgerald is playing lights out right now having torched New York's secondary... and that's a big time secondary to torch. Charlie Davidson and gang have looked pretty solid at WR and having watched the game on AFLNet, I can tell that Austin is at least getting to the QB, but not necessarily sacking him. This plays into Orlando's weakness of protection Joe Hamilton, and I expect to see a lot of Super Joe on his a$$ on Friday night. If Austin's D comes up with 2 stops on the Preds, something that isn't that difficult to do... they'll cover this easily. You don't know how afraid I am that Orlando is losing this game... and I'm usually right on with my Preds... Dangerous spot overlooking these games going into the Tampa game...

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Yeah Fitzy was fine vs. NY, but what about the week before vs. DAL? Three offensive TDs? Yuck. If ORL had McEntyre and Mason and the gang, I would likely have stayed off this one. But 11 points against a team with a ton of changes, including the 2 big DSs, I'll bite.
 

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Dallas's defense has been downright nasty this year. Austin shouldn't have problems scoring on Orlando in this one unless Orlando's line carries the day... Because that'll make 3 of Orlando's 8 playing out of position on defense. Michael Brown, a WR by trade, is switching to DS to replace McEntyre. This new guy is replacing Mason. Reggie Doster is also banged up for Orlando with a thigh bruise, but will likely play. Jerrian James plays jack linebacker most of the time, but he must already lead the league in out of the box penalties... b*tch had 4 out of the boxes himself against Georgia. OS by trade, now playing both ways.
 

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Olympic moved the Dallas o/u from 103 to 106.5 in a very short period of time... I'd think this game would be an under game, but not a strong enough opinion to bet it.

Pinnacle finally dropped Nashville to 3 and consistently dropping. If you haven't bit, bite now before this game slides all the way to a pick 'em. Hopefully it'll be like the Chicago/Philly game when Chicago went from +8 to -2 by game time and they covered it all very easily by winning by, I believe it was 27, but don't hold me to that... it's irrelevent anyway. Cover is a cover is a cover.
 

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CHI won that game by 10, 51-41. Man, you sound sure on NAS. I can make cases both ways on this one. I just wanna see what NAS can do, if anything, with the new offense.
 

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