All in all this was a pretty crazy day. Despite the fact that we lost Dallas in a ridiculous tie, we did a nice job with the total in the game by nailing 1st half, 2nd half, and game, all with ease. Columbus was just a terrible call, but was made up for by Vegas hammering Grand Rapids. Arizona really isn't as bad as I think they are... keep being guilty of underestimating this team. They're gonna cover someone eventually, but the way I bet, you'd never think so. Second half totals working better today than they have in the past, adding a nice little ending to our day... lucked out too... Columbus makes the 2-pt conversion try and we're screwed. That line opened 49.5 too. Half ends at 50. I take the spoils at 50.5... lol.
Dallas (-10) vs. Nashville L (-3 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 100.5 W (+2.86 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 48.5 1st half W (+1.91 units)
Dallas/Nashville OVER 46 2nd half W (+2.38 units)
Columbus (pk) @ Arizona L (-4 units)
Columbus @ Arizona under 50.5 2nd half W (+1 unit)
Las Vegas (-7) vs. Grand Rapids W (+3.81 units)
Week 11 tally: 5-2 (+4.96 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 28-14-1
Against that same closing line: 25-17-1
Sides Record: 20-17 (+15.73 units)
Totals Record: 22-12 (+27.56 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-0 (+1.91 units)
2nd half: 8-10 (-2.56 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 55-47 (53.92%)
Net: +39.88 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 51-39 (56.67%)
Units Wagered: 289 units
Units Won: 39.88 units
Net %: 13.80% profit per unit wagered
By the way, Scott McMullen.... whomever the hell he is... replaced Matt D'Orazio today at QB. Guess Columbus will be on QB #4 next week. Dunno what's worse, their QB carousel or Nashville's once Rislov gets into the flow of the AFL. No doubt that he's gonna be their starter eventually, if not this year than next year for sure. Oh, and I lie. There was a tie before in the AFL back in 1988 when the Chicago Bruisers tied the Los Angeles... okay, I don't remember what the LA team was called, but they tied in '88, the AFL's second season. So it's just been a mere 17 years since it happened. Nice job Dallas and Nashville.
No play on the War tomorrow... just gonna sit back and be a fan. Also won't be around Sunday, so you all will have to get along without me:sad3:
--AFLGuru:toast:
Dallas (-10) vs. Nashville L (-3 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 100.5 W (+2.86 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 48.5 1st half W (+1.91 units)
Dallas/Nashville OVER 46 2nd half W (+2.38 units)
Columbus (pk) @ Arizona L (-4 units)
Columbus @ Arizona under 50.5 2nd half W (+1 unit)
Las Vegas (-7) vs. Grand Rapids W (+3.81 units)
Week 11 tally: 5-2 (+4.96 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 28-14-1
Against that same closing line: 25-17-1
Sides Record: 20-17 (+15.73 units)
Totals Record: 22-12 (+27.56 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-0 (+1.91 units)
2nd half: 8-10 (-2.56 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 55-47 (53.92%)
Net: +39.88 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 51-39 (56.67%)
Units Wagered: 289 units
Units Won: 39.88 units
Net %: 13.80% profit per unit wagered
By the way, Scott McMullen.... whomever the hell he is... replaced Matt D'Orazio today at QB. Guess Columbus will be on QB #4 next week. Dunno what's worse, their QB carousel or Nashville's once Rislov gets into the flow of the AFL. No doubt that he's gonna be their starter eventually, if not this year than next year for sure. Oh, and I lie. There was a tie before in the AFL back in 1988 when the Chicago Bruisers tied the Los Angeles... okay, I don't remember what the LA team was called, but they tied in '88, the AFL's second season. So it's just been a mere 17 years since it happened. Nice job Dallas and Nashville.
No play on the War tomorrow... just gonna sit back and be a fan. Also won't be around Sunday, so you all will have to get along without me:sad3:
--AFLGuru:toast:
Okay, this goes against everything I truly believe is going to happen, and that's why I'm making it a small play, but along with everything that I've worked on in 2nd half plays, this first half play fits right in there...
Orlando (+0.5) @ Tampa 1st half (1.5 units -105): Here's the logic... Orlando, with about 80% confidence is getting the ball first in the game. If their defense can come up with one stop somehow, they'll cover this easily if they get the ball first. Again, I think Tampa is the team with the fast start, but because of this 2nd half thing I've worked on, this play comes up as "can't miss" the way I know the Preds. I'm pretty sure if Gruden wins the toss he's taking the ball and if Tampa wins the toss, they're DEFINITELY deferring. And if Orlando's damn kicker screws us out of this bet, I'll hunt him down, don't worry... lol... Dumba$$ almost cost us last week's game... he's lucky he's still got a job.
Orlando (+0.5) @ Tampa 1st half (1.5 units -105): Here's the logic... Orlando, with about 80% confidence is getting the ball first in the game. If their defense can come up with one stop somehow, they'll cover this easily if they get the ball first. Again, I think Tampa is the team with the fast start, but because of this 2nd half thing I've worked on, this play comes up as "can't miss" the way I know the Preds. I'm pretty sure if Gruden wins the toss he's taking the ball and if Tampa wins the toss, they're DEFINITELY deferring. And if Orlando's damn kicker screws us out of this bet, I'll hunt him down, don't worry... lol... Dumba$$ almost cost us last week's game... he's lucky he's still got a job.
Both very nice plays indeed... obviously the Olympic line is better... and though I might kill myself for that 0.5 point later, I'd rather take the Preds +0.5 at -105 than +1 at -110... but that's my preference. I'll leave that up to the eyes of the beholder. But yeah Olddog, that's a good option. I'm gonna look into that for a small amount. Thanks buddy. So used to you posting bad news for me... like mysteriously half of the Preds turned up with pulled hammies before the game or something like that.
The other nice thing about this play is if I could have any defense in the AFL to come up with a big stand at the end of the half, it's Orlando's. They did it to LA, they did it to Colorado, they did it to Chicago, and they did it to Georgia. In each case, they could have been down 4 or 7 points more than they were at the half. Tampa having to kick at the end of the half instead of getting 6 might be the difference. Again, don't shoot the messanger if this doesn't work, because it's a bit of a system in progress.
And for some other news, I WILL be here tomorrow now... I was gonna go to Atlanta and watch the Braves play, but my health isn't going to allow for that. Still fighting whatever this is...
And for some other news, I WILL be here tomorrow now... I was gonna go to Atlanta and watch the Braves play, but my health isn't going to allow for that. Still fighting whatever this is...
I don't wanna talk about what's gone on in this game... Officiating has been terrible. AFL is making sure Tampa makes the playoffs somehow. They'll beat Orlando in this one by at least 16, so they can hold the tiebreaker over the Preds in case of a head-to-head tie between the two in the final standings. Orlando got the ball first and Tampa did exactly what I said they would... Early turnover, Preds have to play comeback. Orlando's offense didn't even get on the field as dumba$$ Jerrian James fumbled on the kick. I'll just tell you right now, because I'm not playing this, but if Tampa's anything less than -5 in the 2nd half, you're stealing them.
Okay, feeling a bit better about things right now after two big Preds stops. Johnny Harris a massive pick to give the Preds a shot to actually take the lead before the half. 21-16 Storm at the 1 minute warning. Rules still apply about Tampa in the 2nd half. They should absolutely be -5 at the least. They're outplaying Orlando pretty badly, especially in the trenches, and with Moye-Moore out and Price not playing much (I've only seen him on the field once) there's no running game for Orlando. Tampa needs to win this big too...
Tampa stops Orlando after an easy score of their own... the rout is about to begin. Orlando just needs to get out of here by losing by less than 15 to keep the tiebreaker over Tampa. Orlando self destructing with dumb penalties, missed tackles, and not being able to get 3rd and an inch and then 4th and an inch....
Johnny Harris, now possibly my least favorite Predator. McEntyre led Solomon right into Harris in the end zone. Now I'm not saying that Harris should have made a better play on the ball as a defender, but what the Preds miss is on a play like that, the receiver would have gotten absolutely lit up and probably dropped the ball. Harris just pulled up and barely touched Solomon... sh*t like that makes me wonder what Jay Gruden was smoking when he ditched the Hitman.
Refs making sure Tampa wins again. McEntyre had himself a pick and they called it "dual possession" when McEntyre clearly had the ball fully in his possession... Should have been Preds ball. Instead Tampa scores going up 14 after a missed PAT... Gruden gets a personal foul, fight breaks out... old school Orlando/Tampa football... I think guys are getting tossed, but of course they just went to commercial break.
Still need 3 TDs to at least say I won money on the game, but for all intents and purposes, the game's over. Tampa picked off Joe on 4th and goal from forever away. Gruden's still pissed. He's gonna get tossed in this game. Orlando should have had the ball down 8... and after the bullsh*t catch call, Orlando just self-destructed. Again, the key here is whether Tampa can beat Orlando by more than 15. Guarantee you if Orlando scores once more, we'll get our over... 8:10 left in the game.
