Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 11

[AFLGuru]

Well, we've seen the end of Jarrian James as a Pred. His a$$ just got benched by Gruden... two fumbles on kick returns, a fumble on a 2-pt conversion and he obviously just screwed up something on defense, because Jay dropped no less than 4 f- bombs on him and sat him down... Preds get a score and we win our over... but if Jay is SMART... they play for a FG here to get the final AT 15, because they'd win the 2nd tiebreaker over Tampa.

 

[AFLGuru]

We get our over and the Preds end up alright in terms of the tiebreaker with Tampa. In retrospect, everything went right for Tampa that didn't go right for Orlando, namely the officiating. Matt George kicked himself a hell of a game, keeping Orlando on their own 5 on just about every possession they had. This Tampa team is dangerous, though I don't know, having lost the tiebreaker with Orlando and with some long road trips left ahead whether they'll have enough steam to get into the playoffs. Orlando played about as well as it could have until it self destructed at the end of the game. Recap...

Today
Tampa/Orlando over 47.5 2nd half W (+2.5 units)
Orlando (+0.5) @ Tampa 1st half L (-1.5 units)

Added to...
Dallas (-10) vs. Nashville L (-3 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 100.5 W (+2.86 units)
Dallas/Nashville under 48.5 1st half W (+1.91 units)
Dallas/Nashville OVER 46 2nd half W (+2.38 units)
Columbus (pk) @ Arizona L (-4 units)
Columbus @ Arizona under 50.5 2nd half W (+1 unit)
Las Vegas (-7) vs. Grand Rapids W (+3.81 units)

Week 11 tally: 6-3 (+5.96 units)

YTD
Against the opening line: 28-14-1
Against that same closing line: 25-17-1

Sides Record: 20-17 (+15.73 units)
Totals Record: 22-12 (+27.56 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-1 (+0.41 units)
2nd half: 9-10 (-0.06 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-5 (-0.31 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 56-48 (53.85%)
Net: +40.88 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 52-40 (56.52%)

Units Wagered: 293 units
Units Won: 40.88 units
Net %: 13.95% profit per unit wagered

Sunday's Card
Colorado (-4) vs. Philadelphia (5 units -105)
Chicago (+7) vs. San Jose (2 units -105)
Tony Graziani over 20.5 completions (3 units +110)

 

[scottw]

THANK YOU OLYMPIC for opening this game at 98. Got the under by 2 points.

 

[AFLGuru]

15 minutes til kick... I'll be here for about the first quarter, and then again by about halftime... gotta run an errand around 1:45 for about 25-30 minutes and then I'll be back.

 

[AFLGuru]

1 Philly play. One TD... lol... pick 6. Colorado already up and no one's at the game yet in Colorado... 7-0 Crush up a stop less than a minute into the game.

 

[AFLGuru]

Colorado up TWO stops less than 5 minutes into the game. Expect a quick strike here to put 'em up 14.

 

[AFLGuru]

7-6 Chicago on pace... 14-0 Colorado up two stops.

 

[AFLGuru]

13-6 SJ

14-7 Philly

 

[MathProf]

I just logged in - good luck today!

 

[AFLGuru]

21-7 Crush up two stops
Still 13-7 SJ with Chicago on the SJ 3, on pace

 

[MathProf]

21-7 Colo at end of one

 

[AFLGuru]

About to be 28 up... dunno what happened, but Colorado lost a stop somehow... Turnover I guess.

 

[AFLGuru]

28-28, Colorado up a stop... 26-20 SJ on pace

 

[MathProf]

Col fumbles for Phil score then Phil onside kick for

Col score ! 35-28

 

[AFLGuru]

Colorado up at least 4 at the half. Philly trying a FG to get it back to 4.

 

[AFLGuru]

Crush up 7 at the half getting the ball. Chicago up a point getting the ball.

 

[AFLGuru]

No play in the 2nd half of Chicago...

 

[AFLGuru]

Graz also has 14 completions...

Adding: Colorado -3.5 second half (2 units -105)

 

[AFLGuru]

Like what I see out of the Crush. Big 2nd half team this year. Should put this one beyond doubt in the 2nd half fairly easily.

 

[AFLGuru]

Under is a system play in the 2nd half, but I'm going to forego... I think money is better spent on Colorado.