Look, I'm going to preface this by saying a number of things about this Predators game before the line opens back up.
1) Fleming is going on IR with a hamstring injury. This is worse news for Orlando in their next match with San Jose than this one. Orlando and Chicago both like to play slower games. It is proven that when teams play faster games that Chicago struggles keeping up... See, the Dallas game AND the Columbus game. With Fleming out, it means the Preds will use more of Justin Skaggs and Michael Brown, both of which are a lot faster than Corey Fleming. The Predators offense will become more high risk, high reward because of this. Chicago's corners are smaller than San Jose's, thus causing the bigger matchup problems next week without the services of Fleming. Bret Cooper will get forced into the jack linebacker position a lot more, but he is an experience veteran, and the jack isn't a very hard position to play on defense... Just stand still and don't leave the box you've gotta stay in.
2) The books were slow with this one as well if this is the true reason the line is shut down. Apparently, the whole city of Orlando knew this at 9:30 this morning when the Predator report came on a local radio station, and my Orlando insider knew this last night... apparently my cell phone service hasn't been the greatest up here and it makes me very unhappy. I apologize for not getting that information sooner, as it's my own team and their struggles with injuries, which should be my specialty.
3) Most importantly: THE LINE SHOULDN'T MOVE IN THIS GAME UNLESS PHILYAW IS PLAYING!!!! But I'll guarantee this... The o/u will drop because of this stereotype that Fleming produces a TD a game for the Preds. Though this is true, he's not the favorite target down by the goalline. Either Skaggs or Brown is starting to get that role a bit more until 3rd down. It's on 3rd and goal they go to Fleming. The Preds have gone out of the way to make sure that he continues his streak of games with a TD reception. The o/u should raise a couple points, not lower a couple points like it probably will. This nixes our under bet in this game, as under 90 or whatever they pick to open the lines at is too low. I wouldn't go back and middle my number though. Orlando will still use the short slants to Michael Brown, the guy they are grooming to be the next Corey Fleming for this team. Skaggs will be on the field more, meaning more deep ball. Against all stereotype, Orlando will take shots more often on first down than most other AFL teams... this isn't a stat I actually track, it's just a trend I have followed. These will likely increase. However, as per risk vs. reward, more often than not, it'll be 2nd and 10 for Orlando, not 6 points. If Orlando works back into their game without Fleming, this will make ZERO difference. Hamilton was getting more used to the other receivers anyway, and I think this could still be a real big game for Orlando.
Now the trap... next week against San Jose... that game's gonna be ugly in my estimation... hope I'm really wrong, as I'll be at the game, but I don't see this one being close, even in the Jungle. But that's next week and we'll get to that then.
--AFLGuru:toast:
1) Fleming is going on IR with a hamstring injury. This is worse news for Orlando in their next match with San Jose than this one. Orlando and Chicago both like to play slower games. It is proven that when teams play faster games that Chicago struggles keeping up... See, the Dallas game AND the Columbus game. With Fleming out, it means the Preds will use more of Justin Skaggs and Michael Brown, both of which are a lot faster than Corey Fleming. The Predators offense will become more high risk, high reward because of this. Chicago's corners are smaller than San Jose's, thus causing the bigger matchup problems next week without the services of Fleming. Bret Cooper will get forced into the jack linebacker position a lot more, but he is an experience veteran, and the jack isn't a very hard position to play on defense... Just stand still and don't leave the box you've gotta stay in.
2) The books were slow with this one as well if this is the true reason the line is shut down. Apparently, the whole city of Orlando knew this at 9:30 this morning when the Predator report came on a local radio station, and my Orlando insider knew this last night... apparently my cell phone service hasn't been the greatest up here and it makes me very unhappy. I apologize for not getting that information sooner, as it's my own team and their struggles with injuries, which should be my specialty.
3) Most importantly: THE LINE SHOULDN'T MOVE IN THIS GAME UNLESS PHILYAW IS PLAYING!!!! But I'll guarantee this... The o/u will drop because of this stereotype that Fleming produces a TD a game for the Preds. Though this is true, he's not the favorite target down by the goalline. Either Skaggs or Brown is starting to get that role a bit more until 3rd down. It's on 3rd and goal they go to Fleming. The Preds have gone out of the way to make sure that he continues his streak of games with a TD reception. The o/u should raise a couple points, not lower a couple points like it probably will. This nixes our under bet in this game, as under 90 or whatever they pick to open the lines at is too low. I wouldn't go back and middle my number though. Orlando will still use the short slants to Michael Brown, the guy they are grooming to be the next Corey Fleming for this team. Skaggs will be on the field more, meaning more deep ball. Against all stereotype, Orlando will take shots more often on first down than most other AFL teams... this isn't a stat I actually track, it's just a trend I have followed. These will likely increase. However, as per risk vs. reward, more often than not, it'll be 2nd and 10 for Orlando, not 6 points. If Orlando works back into their game without Fleming, this will make ZERO difference. Hamilton was getting more used to the other receivers anyway, and I think this could still be a real big game for Orlando.
Now the trap... next week against San Jose... that game's gonna be ugly in my estimation... hope I'm really wrong, as I'll be at the game, but I don't see this one being close, even in the Jungle. But that's next week and we'll get to that then.
--AFLGuru:toast:
http://orlandopredators.nmnathletics.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=3700&ATCLID=110620
Here's the article in case anyone is interested... Not too sure what time it was released, but it's gotta be around 4:00 when these lines all closed up. I got this report direct from Orlando instead of from this website, but decided to go peeking around. No report was there around 12:30 today, so at least the books aren't THAT far behind...
Here's the article in case anyone is interested... Not too sure what time it was released, but it's gotta be around 4:00 when these lines all closed up. I got this report direct from Orlando instead of from this website, but decided to go peeking around. No report was there around 12:30 today, so at least the books aren't THAT far behind...
OK, let's clear all of this up......
First and foremost, we live in a quad apartment at Tallahassee, Florida and we all go to Florida State. There are 3 different people that are on this site, one is AFLGuru, one is Budworth, and I am Brownsfan31 & Big Ben Godsend. Secondly, yes different people can have the same IP address if they use the same network, that's just a fact. Thirdly, I was not trying to undermine AFLGuru and was certainly not jealous, I was just having fun like I usually do like when I sent a Valentine to a friend of mine under the name of a girl he secretly liked and laughed when he asked her out. That's just what I do, am I an ass, most certainly I am. I just thought that it would be funny to do all this and planned on telling AFLGuru after the AFL season was over. Personally, I think it's stupid that such a big deal is being made out of it. I don't think people out there care about the interactions of 3 roommates especially not on the Intraweb.
On the subject of my threatening comment last night, I thought that what the mods had done was post the EXACT IP address on the forum. (Yes, I know I should've read BucsFan's full post) And yes, that is illegal due to the preponderance of one-year nukes and trojans out there. It was only later I found out that you just posted that we are all on the same IP address without mentioning the exact IP address. That is by no means illegal. My most abject apologies for that.
Finally, I am not going to post about this again. Like I said, I doubt that you people care and I feel that this is a roommate problem to be discussed among roommates. This forum should not be used to air out personal disagreements. I was just trying to have a little fun with AFLGuru and that's it.
PS AFLGuru, Come on dude. I'm actually UP money gambling this year. I love the dig about jealousy and me being a bad capper but come on man, I've said from the start you know your stuff on this like I know my WAC and AFC North football. But to dig me when in fact I've made more money than you this year dude? Childish.....inaccurate......and completely preposterous.
First and foremost, we live in a quad apartment at Tallahassee, Florida and we all go to Florida State. There are 3 different people that are on this site, one is AFLGuru, one is Budworth, and I am Brownsfan31 & Big Ben Godsend. Secondly, yes different people can have the same IP address if they use the same network, that's just a fact. Thirdly, I was not trying to undermine AFLGuru and was certainly not jealous, I was just having fun like I usually do like when I sent a Valentine to a friend of mine under the name of a girl he secretly liked and laughed when he asked her out. That's just what I do, am I an ass, most certainly I am. I just thought that it would be funny to do all this and planned on telling AFLGuru after the AFL season was over. Personally, I think it's stupid that such a big deal is being made out of it. I don't think people out there care about the interactions of 3 roommates especially not on the Intraweb.
On the subject of my threatening comment last night, I thought that what the mods had done was post the EXACT IP address on the forum. (Yes, I know I should've read BucsFan's full post) And yes, that is illegal due to the preponderance of one-year nukes and trojans out there. It was only later I found out that you just posted that we are all on the same IP address without mentioning the exact IP address. That is by no means illegal. My most abject apologies for that.
Finally, I am not going to post about this again. Like I said, I doubt that you people care and I feel that this is a roommate problem to be discussed among roommates. This forum should not be used to air out personal disagreements. I was just trying to have a little fun with AFLGuru and that's it.
PS AFLGuru, Come on dude. I'm actually UP money gambling this year. I love the dig about jealousy and me being a bad capper but come on man, I've said from the start you know your stuff on this like I know my WAC and AFC North football. But to dig me when in fact I've made more money than you this year dude? Childish.....inaccurate......and completely preposterous.
I'm still puzzled as to why this game is still offline. I don't think it's that hard to come up with a line at that point, again, unless they are waiting on word on Philyaw, which is FAR more important than Fleming is to the Preds. Just a side note, if this line comes back with the Preds at -4 or so, Philyaw isn't the issue. If the line is a pick 'em again, Philyaw might be playing. I'll be on the issue the rest of the week.
wow. theres ALOT of warnings about this mighty riggs guy and ive always felt anyone with so much to boast about has far more to hide than offer, i suggest to quell confusion just use the IGNORE feature the rx offers. youll never see that persons posts nor know they are even in your post. but apparently others here who know people on covers are sounding the alarm on a few covers defectors. now...aflguru based on the lines currently on pinnacle what are your best suggestions? i am and always have been a believer in you and i have put the crummy roomys caper behind us.
~RG
~RGCan't recommend Orlando giving 6.5... That's a ton of points on the road, though I believe they still might do it. The under in that game I believe to be still good for a few more points, but perhaps for fewer units.
Philly still isn't bad... I think they're going to crush Dallas.
Arizona back up to 5.5 is great. Still no announcement on Bonner. The line moved back today when Vegas opened their line. This is an overrated New York team. Under still good even 11 points lower than what I got it at.
Note... for some reason the Grand Rapids/Columbus o/u dropped a TD... I've gotta look into this.
Philly still isn't bad... I think they're going to crush Dallas.
Arizona back up to 5.5 is great. Still no announcement on Bonner. The line moved back today when Vegas opened their line. This is an overrated New York team. Under still good even 11 points lower than what I got it at.
Note... for some reason the Grand Rapids/Columbus o/u dropped a TD... I've gotta look into this.
Official injury reports are out. I once said I was going to let the Preds ride... I've decided not. I can't hide the information from you. Travis McGriff, Orlando's offensive specialist suffered a concussion today in practice. He's likely to miss the game against Chicago. That being said, Orlando doesn't have a kick returner, as they would use Fleming as a kick returner instead. Guarantee you that Orlando loses at least 1 possession thanks to whomever they use as a kick returner on Friday night if it isn't McGriff. Orlando practices outdoors, so the first time this guy tries a ball off of the net is going to be about 45 minutes before the game. Oh yeah, another minor detail... Raymond Philyaw is recovering just fine and has been officially listed as "probable" though all of what I hear it's more questionable than probable... Still, let's take our middle and run... Chicago should be -2.5 in this game now. Sorry guys... injuries suck really bad. I'm not discounting Orlando's possibility of winning this game, but it's not as good as Chicago's chance, especially if Philyaw is playing like it sounds he's working towards. Chicago owns Orlando over the years and with all of these injuries, Orlando is probably going down.
Adding: Chicago (+4) vs. Orlando (4 units +121)
Now that we know that Shredrick Bonner is out, we're STEALING the over/under at this number as well as 103.5 at the current. Stealing it. Not going to add units to this play, but for those of you that haven't hit it yet, this would be a teaser option that looks very solid. Can't see Arizona dropping 50, which would require NY to get to 55 on a rather solid Arizona defense. Keep the 6.5 on the Rattlers as well. They're covering someone, and for 2 units, I think it's worth it to let it ride. Still wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright... New York is massively overrated.
The Philly play is still good, as there are no notable injuries that should have any major effect.
Regarding the over in the Nashville/LV game. Clint Dolezel is out for Vegas. Jarrick Hillary is out for Nashville. Honestly, this doesn't look like a good spot for an over... it looks like a great spot for another 35-31 game. But to be honest with you, Las Vegas' offense has to get healthy at some point... They've been shut out in the 2nd half twice in games this season, which is just horrid. That being said, I'll leave middling this up to you... but I'm letting this ride for the one unit. Nashville still tries the onsider more often than anyone, and this could surprise some people. I think the way that Las Vegas plays defense plays into Nashville's hands. Mobile QB won't get sacked as much. I really think Leon Murray can make some things happen against Vegas... maybe a 50-42 backdoor over... it'd be nice. I'm suggesting to let it ride, but if you feel more comfortable middling this, by all means the option is there for you. 94 is still probably an appropriate number in this game.
Best,
--AFLGuru:toast:
Adding: Chicago (+4) vs. Orlando (4 units +121)
Now that we know that Shredrick Bonner is out, we're STEALING the over/under at this number as well as 103.5 at the current. Stealing it. Not going to add units to this play, but for those of you that haven't hit it yet, this would be a teaser option that looks very solid. Can't see Arizona dropping 50, which would require NY to get to 55 on a rather solid Arizona defense. Keep the 6.5 on the Rattlers as well. They're covering someone, and for 2 units, I think it's worth it to let it ride. Still wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright... New York is massively overrated.
The Philly play is still good, as there are no notable injuries that should have any major effect.
Regarding the over in the Nashville/LV game. Clint Dolezel is out for Vegas. Jarrick Hillary is out for Nashville. Honestly, this doesn't look like a good spot for an over... it looks like a great spot for another 35-31 game. But to be honest with you, Las Vegas' offense has to get healthy at some point... They've been shut out in the 2nd half twice in games this season, which is just horrid. That being said, I'll leave middling this up to you... but I'm letting this ride for the one unit. Nashville still tries the onsider more often than anyone, and this could surprise some people. I think the way that Las Vegas plays defense plays into Nashville's hands. Mobile QB won't get sacked as much. I really think Leon Murray can make some things happen against Vegas... maybe a 50-42 backdoor over... it'd be nice. I'm suggesting to let it ride, but if you feel more comfortable middling this, by all means the option is there for you. 94 is still probably an appropriate number in this game.
Best,
--AFLGuru:toast:
Sons of a b*tches just shut it down... I'm sorry about leading you all the wrong way on this one... I assumed a full strength Preds team and a Chicago team without Philyaw. Both of these Predator injuries were practice injuries, while Philyaw has recovered faster than some, including the few insiders I have, thought. I've got the feeling we're gonna see this game revert back to the pick 'em it should be at... honestly, I'm not going to opening put a selection out there to take Chicago at -2.5 or something like that, as I won't bet against my Predators (though I've hedged twice)... but Chicago's probably winning this game.
Interesting story I can't believe anyone is talking about in the AFL...
Nashville has no clue who their QB is this week.
As reported by Arena Fan, Leon Murray is questionable and Tony Zimmerman is ready to go for the Kats. But is this bad news for us? I'll contend that we are getting lucky if Zimmerman starts. Having been in Orlando's camp this offseason, I saw a lot of Zimmerman and like what I see. The kid has pretty good awareness of the field... two years in the af2 makes him a bit more ready for the AFL then some NFL Europe or Canadian League guys. Most importantly in Zim vs. Murray?
Zimmerman stood up to the Orlando pass rush in practices. Tough, tough S.O.B. Las Vegas is going to get to him or Murray this Saturday. The difference is that Zimmerman will still deliver the ball. Murray will take the sack or try running for it. Zimmerman will throw the ball away. Murray will throw the ball to a defender. I can not believe that Nashville is still a favorite in this game, no matter who is QBing for Las Vegas. I believe this helps our chances though, of a Nashville win and an over ball game. Nashville win onside kick and onside kick a lot. If it's Rod Robinson in the game for Vegas, he's been massively prone to screwing up inside the 10 yard line (in the past 2 weeks alone, he's had 11 drives inside the ten... 3 TDs, 5 turnovers, 2 possessions end on downs, 1 FG... terrible) It's a much tighter area to try to throw the ball into when you're inside the 10 yard line... The jack linebacker comes into real play if you try throwing a slant. And if you try going outside, DBs can afford to jump routes. There's not that much room behind him. In Nashville they have a slightly chopped end zone if I remember right, meaning if you DO go outside, you're running into a corner that sucks. Great leverage for DBs.
So under all of that logic, Nashville onside kicks and puts Rod Robinson in a bad spot. The first time James Baron pressures him (awfully inevitable I believe, as Baron has been VERY quiet all season), something bad is going to come out of it for Las Vegas. And if it's Craig Whelihan that starts... Don't get me started... He was Orlando's STARTING QB for 2 seasons... and somehow we made the playoffs both years. That guy fumbled more damn center exchanges than anyone in any level of football I've ever seen... and my high school team in my 4 years went 0-10, 2-8, 4-6, and 1-9. We were terrible.
Anyway, just an interesting point about the game to share. If you haven't middled your Orlando line, or if you haven't bet the game yet, Chicago +anything is ripe. Chicago should be -2.5 unless Philyaw is deemed out... But even then, Orlando's got a world of hurt in this game coming.
By the way, our boy at FSU, AD McPherson... Colts... round 5. Book it. The Colts love this guy for some reason. He was released by Nashville to let Zimmerman on the roster. Good thing too, but if AD McPherson was in the game at QB, we could never bet on a Nashville game again.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Nashville has no clue who their QB is this week.
As reported by Arena Fan, Leon Murray is questionable and Tony Zimmerman is ready to go for the Kats. But is this bad news for us? I'll contend that we are getting lucky if Zimmerman starts. Having been in Orlando's camp this offseason, I saw a lot of Zimmerman and like what I see. The kid has pretty good awareness of the field... two years in the af2 makes him a bit more ready for the AFL then some NFL Europe or Canadian League guys. Most importantly in Zim vs. Murray?
Zimmerman stood up to the Orlando pass rush in practices. Tough, tough S.O.B. Las Vegas is going to get to him or Murray this Saturday. The difference is that Zimmerman will still deliver the ball. Murray will take the sack or try running for it. Zimmerman will throw the ball away. Murray will throw the ball to a defender. I can not believe that Nashville is still a favorite in this game, no matter who is QBing for Las Vegas. I believe this helps our chances though, of a Nashville win and an over ball game. Nashville win onside kick and onside kick a lot. If it's Rod Robinson in the game for Vegas, he's been massively prone to screwing up inside the 10 yard line (in the past 2 weeks alone, he's had 11 drives inside the ten... 3 TDs, 5 turnovers, 2 possessions end on downs, 1 FG... terrible) It's a much tighter area to try to throw the ball into when you're inside the 10 yard line... The jack linebacker comes into real play if you try throwing a slant. And if you try going outside, DBs can afford to jump routes. There's not that much room behind him. In Nashville they have a slightly chopped end zone if I remember right, meaning if you DO go outside, you're running into a corner that sucks. Great leverage for DBs.
So under all of that logic, Nashville onside kicks and puts Rod Robinson in a bad spot. The first time James Baron pressures him (awfully inevitable I believe, as Baron has been VERY quiet all season), something bad is going to come out of it for Las Vegas. And if it's Craig Whelihan that starts... Don't get me started... He was Orlando's STARTING QB for 2 seasons... and somehow we made the playoffs both years. That guy fumbled more damn center exchanges than anyone in any level of football I've ever seen... and my high school team in my 4 years went 0-10, 2-8, 4-6, and 1-9. We were terrible.
Anyway, just an interesting point about the game to share. If you haven't middled your Orlando line, or if you haven't bet the game yet, Chicago +anything is ripe. Chicago should be -2.5 unless Philyaw is deemed out... But even then, Orlando's got a world of hurt in this game coming.
By the way, our boy at FSU, AD McPherson... Colts... round 5. Book it. The Colts love this guy for some reason. He was released by Nashville to let Zimmerman on the roster. Good thing too, but if AD McPherson was in the game at QB, we could never bet on a Nashville game again.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Hawk, upon going back and reading the thread, I didn't address a point you tried making to me earlier. Now that everything changes between Chicago and Orlando, it's a bit obsolete, but I'll address your question anyway...
You mentioned how the common opponents of Orlando and Chicago would favor Chicago over the Preds, particularly at home for the Rush. I'm not going to say you're wrong. But I will say the following things about those games.
Orlando was running away from Colorado and got sloppy. Chicago came back from a game they were dead in. It's a matter of which is considered more valueable... Chicago is clearly a resilient team. I'll give them that. But the fact that Orlando continues to shoot themselves in the foot and still win games is incredible. The Dallas game was a CLEAR trap for Orlando... kinda like the Columbus game for Chicago. I look at the games as the exact same game for both teams. The Tampa demolition and the Chicago rout out Philly are also almost the same win, though I believe the I-4 war was a much more difficult game to win. I think everyone is consensus that Philly might be explosive, but they're overrated. On paper, the two teams are even.
But there's a ton to play for in this game, and I believed that Orlando would be the more hyped up team. The kicking game finally looks better. The return game is getting better. Penalties are down. All of the things that have haunted the Preds for years throughout seasons are down. That being said, Orlando is still facing problems that plagued them at the start of last season. Hamilton, though improving, still finds the jack linebacker too often... and he's still too short. Passes get batted down at the line too often. He telegraphs passes very badly. But again, he's improving. By the time he figured it all out in the 2nd half of last season when the Preds closed 7 out of 8, the little things like the penalties, the botched snaps, and the poor return game ultimately cost them the game in Chicago. That being said, these two teams returned a lot of the same players. Chicago is missing All-World lineman James Baron from last year's team, and especially if they were without Philyaw and Douglas for the game, this Orlando team would have been miles better. That being said, Douglas IS out, while Philyaw is likely in, and the Preds have caught two bad WR breaks over the past couple practices. Granted, they were without Travis McGriff in this playoff game last year as well... but then return the kick returning problems.
So as you can see, I believe I made a good read on this game without the use of statistics. My stats simply backed up my initial thought, though I think Chicago's numbers are all going to get better as the year progresses. Great article on arenafan about the "real Storm please stand up"... I think Chicago is the best comparison of that. They beat Philly and Colorado but lose to Dallas and Columbus? Ouch. Hope that answers all of your questions about my initial thoughts and current thoughts on the game. Note that as a current prediction assuming Philyaw plays, is that the Rush win a game a lot like this Dallas/Orlando game last week... Rush in the mid to high 40s, Preds in the high 20s or low 30s.
--AFLGuru
You mentioned how the common opponents of Orlando and Chicago would favor Chicago over the Preds, particularly at home for the Rush. I'm not going to say you're wrong. But I will say the following things about those games.
Orlando was running away from Colorado and got sloppy. Chicago came back from a game they were dead in. It's a matter of which is considered more valueable... Chicago is clearly a resilient team. I'll give them that. But the fact that Orlando continues to shoot themselves in the foot and still win games is incredible. The Dallas game was a CLEAR trap for Orlando... kinda like the Columbus game for Chicago. I look at the games as the exact same game for both teams. The Tampa demolition and the Chicago rout out Philly are also almost the same win, though I believe the I-4 war was a much more difficult game to win. I think everyone is consensus that Philly might be explosive, but they're overrated. On paper, the two teams are even.
But there's a ton to play for in this game, and I believed that Orlando would be the more hyped up team. The kicking game finally looks better. The return game is getting better. Penalties are down. All of the things that have haunted the Preds for years throughout seasons are down. That being said, Orlando is still facing problems that plagued them at the start of last season. Hamilton, though improving, still finds the jack linebacker too often... and he's still too short. Passes get batted down at the line too often. He telegraphs passes very badly. But again, he's improving. By the time he figured it all out in the 2nd half of last season when the Preds closed 7 out of 8, the little things like the penalties, the botched snaps, and the poor return game ultimately cost them the game in Chicago. That being said, these two teams returned a lot of the same players. Chicago is missing All-World lineman James Baron from last year's team, and especially if they were without Philyaw and Douglas for the game, this Orlando team would have been miles better. That being said, Douglas IS out, while Philyaw is likely in, and the Preds have caught two bad WR breaks over the past couple practices. Granted, they were without Travis McGriff in this playoff game last year as well... but then return the kick returning problems.
So as you can see, I believe I made a good read on this game without the use of statistics. My stats simply backed up my initial thought, though I think Chicago's numbers are all going to get better as the year progresses. Great article on arenafan about the "real Storm please stand up"... I think Chicago is the best comparison of that. They beat Philly and Colorado but lose to Dallas and Columbus? Ouch. Hope that answers all of your questions about my initial thoughts and current thoughts on the game. Note that as a current prediction assuming Philyaw plays, is that the Rush win a game a lot like this Dallas/Orlando game last week... Rush in the mid to high 40s, Preds in the high 20s or low 30s.
--AFLGuru
If anyone has any doubt that BigBenGodSend and I aren't the same person, take this prop he says is good. I'm not going to go into the statistics as to why it is a losing wager (the least of which is that if the teams end up with the same amount of TDs you push) more often than the odds would suggest, but I'll just say you'll NEVER catch me posting a bullcrap prop like that when the odds are against us as gamblers. And just believe me when I say the odds are against you on this prop. Should you play it, yes, the odds have it that more often than not, you are going to win. However, more often than not at a 40% profit isn't nearly good enough. And if anyone wants all the stats, I'll post them all. But I don't want this to turn into a fight of unnecessary statistics if no one cares... and to be honest, I wouldn't care if I were any of you.
--AFLGuru
--AFLGuru
There are a ton of percentage props on all sports... For example, betting no for an overtime game in every NFL game it's offered... More often than the odds suggest, you're going to win. Same thing here. If you played no on this prop of the winning team to score more TDs, you'd win enough to make it worthwhile. Same is true with will there be a defensive or special teams TD and will there be a safety or 2-pt conversion. Normally I don't play them because these things are what built the Mirage, but the percentages are there if you keep track of these things. Though the percentages are the same on every game, sometimes it just feels more due than others, and in some games, the feeling that a defense might record a safety is also apparent. Any time Orlando, Chicago, Nashville, Georgia, or Colorado is involved, the likelihood of a safety is slightly greater. 2-pt conversions are proven to be pretty random, though it feels like about every game someone at least attempts a 2-pt conversion.
--AFLGuru
--AFLGuru
Since I feel obligated to post the proper stats now.... roughly 28% of the time, not 12.5% you'd lose that bet this year... because a push doesn't exist... pushing is losing. Doesn't say who's scoring more and if they're even you get your money back. It says will the winner score more TDs, insinuating winning team -0.5 TDs to losing team. If you bet $100 100 times on this and the trends hold (which you'll probably find that they will), you'd be up $80.
Though this looks not, let's throw out certain games. Throw out ANY game that the spread was more than a TD and the favorite covered. If you do this alone, you'd find that this bet is roughly 38/62 losers/winners. If you hit this bet 62 out of 100 times for $100 each time, you'd be down $1320.
Granted, this is off of a sample set of a mere 4 weeks in the AFL, and I don't have the stats at hand for last season. But you'll find these trends to hold pretty close over the season.
I can do math just fine thanks.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Though this looks not, let's throw out certain games. Throw out ANY game that the spread was more than a TD and the favorite covered. If you do this alone, you'd find that this bet is roughly 38/62 losers/winners. If you hit this bet 62 out of 100 times for $100 each time, you'd be down $1320.
Granted, this is off of a sample set of a mere 4 weeks in the AFL, and I don't have the stats at hand for last season. But you'll find these trends to hold pretty close over the season.
I can do math just fine thanks.
--AFLGuru:toast:
