And that explains the weird line movement that is sometimes contrary to the way the lines have been moving.
But let's be honest... take the New York-Dallas game in week 2. That line opened at like 101.5 and got up as high as 114 at one point... On Thursday the line went back to 108.5 if memory serves presumably due to Vegas opening a line... Are you really gonna come up with a line that's 7.5 points higher than what a professional sportsbook comes up with the opening line at on your own? You've gotta factor in what the public's been doing in these numbers. No way you can just pull these numbers out of your a$$es.
But let's be honest... take the New York-Dallas game in week 2. That line opened at like 101.5 and got up as high as 114 at one point... On Thursday the line went back to 108.5 if memory serves presumably due to Vegas opening a line... Are you really gonna come up with a line that's 7.5 points higher than what a professional sportsbook comes up with the opening line at on your own? You've gotta factor in what the public's been doing in these numbers. No way you can just pull these numbers out of your a$$es.
This isn't the article I'm talking about but as reported by arenafootball.com....
With Chicago’s unbelievable come-from-behind win at Colorado in Week 2, this weeks battle against the winless Columbus Destroyers looked to be a major trap. Buzzsaw is more like it, as the Rush got pounded in the second half. They lost the battle on both sides of the ball, and made Destroyers QB Matt D’Orazio look like an all-world AFL field general. As bad as it looked, the Rush had several opportunities to claw back into the game which speaks well for the type of character this club has. That being said, character won’t get it done by itself, and it looks as if two key components on offense might be on the injured list (QB [url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95905"]Raymond Philyaw[/url]/OS [url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"][url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"][url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"]Henry Douglas[/url][/url][/url]). A must-win home date is on deck against Orlando, but you can bet that the Preds won’t be gracious visitors.
I'll keep looking for that article later on.
With Chicago’s unbelievable come-from-behind win at Colorado in Week 2, this weeks battle against the winless Columbus Destroyers looked to be a major trap. Buzzsaw is more like it, as the Rush got pounded in the second half. They lost the battle on both sides of the ball, and made Destroyers QB Matt D’Orazio look like an all-world AFL field general. As bad as it looked, the Rush had several opportunities to claw back into the game which speaks well for the type of character this club has. That being said, character won’t get it done by itself, and it looks as if two key components on offense might be on the injured list (QB [url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95905"]Raymond Philyaw[/url]/OS [url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"][url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"][url="http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19886&SPID=1562&DB_OEM_ID=3500&ATCLID=95968"]Henry Douglas[/url][/url][/url]). A must-win home date is on deck against Orlando, but you can bet that the Preds won’t be gracious visitors.
I'll keep looking for that article later on.
Here's some stats for you to chew on BrownsFan... Or should I post these on your thread?
New York D allows 45 points per game
Last time your boy Aaron Garcia played Arizona? 41 points...
NY statistically #3 against the rush and probably better than that
One of the highest penalized teams in the AFL
Aaron Garcia... 9th rated passer in the AFL... not good
Third from the bottom in comp. %, meaning lots of clock running
Also two bad PAT percentages for both teams
Arizona, 11th best red zone offense
New York, 12th best red zone offense
Two red zone possessions ending in 0 points and there's no hope of an over. Ridiculous buddy. Quit copying me and thinking I'm taking over in every single New York game. Quit copying how I post plays. Quit trying to be like me. Just quit it. You're pissing me off. Go away and go away for good.
New York D allows 45 points per game
Last time your boy Aaron Garcia played Arizona? 41 points...
NY statistically #3 against the rush and probably better than that
One of the highest penalized teams in the AFL
Aaron Garcia... 9th rated passer in the AFL... not good
Third from the bottom in comp. %, meaning lots of clock running
Also two bad PAT percentages for both teams
Arizona, 11th best red zone offense
New York, 12th best red zone offense
Two red zone possessions ending in 0 points and there's no hope of an over. Ridiculous buddy. Quit copying me and thinking I'm taking over in every single New York game. Quit copying how I post plays. Quit trying to be like me. Just quit it. You're pissing me off. Go away and go away for good.
Look, anyone that suggests 15 units on a play that is 0-1 all time is an idiot.
New Orleans 55 - Tampa 43... and the game wasn't that close.
All of these teams in the south are very good. The Graveyard is worth 6 points. Saying that New Orleans is even with Tampa is a fair assessment... And since Tampa doesn't have Kinney or Solomon or Toliver... Man BrownsFan, do you know anything? You're giving me all the reason in the world to bet on New Orleans. I was all set to drop 5 units on New Orleans after the Kinney and Solomon injuries if the line was like 2.5. But Vegas got this one right. They really did. Nice job guys. A solid line set.
But if you want to piss away 15 units, please piss them away on your own thread. New Orleans has 1 loss at home in regular season history... and it was to Orlando last year, who's clearly superior over Tampa (no beefs Luke... just joking). Ask San Jose what happens when you go into the Graveyard... and ask the same of Philadelphia while you're at it. Tampa goes down hard in this one. NOT AN OFFICIAL PICK NOR WILL I PUT ANY MONEY ON IT.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Note- I've reported you and Budworth twice BrownsFan. Go away from my thread. Notes are fine. PICKS are not. That's what you have your own thread for.
New Orleans 55 - Tampa 43... and the game wasn't that close.
All of these teams in the south are very good. The Graveyard is worth 6 points. Saying that New Orleans is even with Tampa is a fair assessment... And since Tampa doesn't have Kinney or Solomon or Toliver... Man BrownsFan, do you know anything? You're giving me all the reason in the world to bet on New Orleans. I was all set to drop 5 units on New Orleans after the Kinney and Solomon injuries if the line was like 2.5. But Vegas got this one right. They really did. Nice job guys. A solid line set.
But if you want to piss away 15 units, please piss them away on your own thread. New Orleans has 1 loss at home in regular season history... and it was to Orlando last year, who's clearly superior over Tampa (no beefs Luke... just joking). Ask San Jose what happens when you go into the Graveyard... and ask the same of Philadelphia while you're at it. Tampa goes down hard in this one. NOT AN OFFICIAL PICK NOR WILL I PUT ANY MONEY ON IT.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Note- I've reported you and Budworth twice BrownsFan. Go away from my thread. Notes are fine. PICKS are not. That's what you have your own thread for.
Look guys... I want to separate this BrownsFan bullcrap from my own. I will leave a recap right now. If there are any misconceptions, please post and I'll clear it all up. Don't follow this BrownsFan bullcrap. Anyone that suggests to bet 15% of their account on any one game is an idiot as far as I'm concerned. That's how Vegas builds the Mirage and such. People betting mass percentages of their account. Anyway, the recap...
Friday: Orlando (-2) @ Chicago (4 units)
Friday: Orlando @ Chicago under 101.5 (4 units)
Saturday: Las Vegas @ Nashville over 90.5 (1 unit)
Sunday: Philadelphia (-2) vs. Dallas (3 units)
Sunday: Arizona (+6.5) @ New York (2 units)
Sunday: Arizona @ New York under 113 (2 units)
Now, regarding these lines...
Orlando is currently at -6. Stop betting this. It's a wee too high until knowing for certain whether Philyaw is playing... And even then, it's probably just about right.
The o/u in the Orlando game is currently at 94, which I still believe this game will be under. I honestly think this game is gonna be in the low 80s.
The o/u in the LV/Nash game is at 94. This is still not a bad number for over here. I think we're in an uncharacteristically high scoring game situation. For one unit, it's worth it.
Philly is -6.5. Not a bad number, though I can't suggest it until Dallas goes cold. I believe that Philly is going to cover this number handlely, but at -6.5, the same value isn't there that it was at -2. That being said, it's still not a bad bet, but it's one maybe to lessen the value on.
Arizona is now +3. It's not a bad play here either, but the value probably isn't there anymore. Though Riggs thinks the wrong team is favored, we still don't know if Bonner is playing. This line is probably about right now. I still think Arizona can pull an upset, but at approximately +140, there might not be as much value.
The o/u in NY/Ari is now 107. Don't listen to BrownsFan about this... If Bonner plays, Arizona slows down the offense. If Germaine plays... it's Joe Germaine... the offense can't score 50 with him at the helm. That being said, NY has to get to 67, which, despite the fact that it seemed easy this past weekend, isn't very easy to achieve.
Best of luck. Again, if there are any misconceptions as to which plays are mine and which are idiot's, please let me know. If the mods don't get rid of this crap, I'm not going to be a happy capper.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Friday: Orlando (-2) @ Chicago (4 units)
Friday: Orlando @ Chicago under 101.5 (4 units)
Saturday: Las Vegas @ Nashville over 90.5 (1 unit)
Sunday: Philadelphia (-2) vs. Dallas (3 units)
Sunday: Arizona (+6.5) @ New York (2 units)
Sunday: Arizona @ New York under 113 (2 units)
Now, regarding these lines...
Orlando is currently at -6. Stop betting this. It's a wee too high until knowing for certain whether Philyaw is playing... And even then, it's probably just about right.
The o/u in the Orlando game is currently at 94, which I still believe this game will be under. I honestly think this game is gonna be in the low 80s.
The o/u in the LV/Nash game is at 94. This is still not a bad number for over here. I think we're in an uncharacteristically high scoring game situation. For one unit, it's worth it.
Philly is -6.5. Not a bad number, though I can't suggest it until Dallas goes cold. I believe that Philly is going to cover this number handlely, but at -6.5, the same value isn't there that it was at -2. That being said, it's still not a bad bet, but it's one maybe to lessen the value on.
Arizona is now +3. It's not a bad play here either, but the value probably isn't there anymore. Though Riggs thinks the wrong team is favored, we still don't know if Bonner is playing. This line is probably about right now. I still think Arizona can pull an upset, but at approximately +140, there might not be as much value.
The o/u in NY/Ari is now 107. Don't listen to BrownsFan about this... If Bonner plays, Arizona slows down the offense. If Germaine plays... it's Joe Germaine... the offense can't score 50 with him at the helm. That being said, NY has to get to 67, which, despite the fact that it seemed easy this past weekend, isn't very easy to achieve.
Best of luck. Again, if there are any misconceptions as to which plays are mine and which are idiot's, please let me know. If the mods don't get rid of this crap, I'm not going to be a happy capper.
--AFLGuru:toast:
It's unfortunate that my posts got removed from BrownsFan's thread because they were good stuff, no bullcrap... but I understand why it was done. Anyway, we still haven't rid ourselves of Budworth, but ignore him. One post isn't so bad. But pretty much everything he says on here is to get under my skin too... and when he posts his AFL picks, they're for his personal attacks on me only. Just to see if he can BS his way to being a better "capper" than me and to make fun of me. Just check the recap and that should take care of all problems for this week.
Wish I didn't have this damn New York "I want to kill you when you say anything about me" blood in me... I've mellowed out a bit since moving to Florida many years ago, but I still have the blood in me... Wish I had known about that ignore feature before today. Would've made life a lot easier.
Riggs, this is where we will disagree. Opening lines have a TON more value than what Vegas sets. You'll never find these types of lines anywhere. Philly in a pick against Dallas? I'm still sold that these Pinny lines influence the Vegas lines more than ArenaDoc suggests. These lines were moving as I bet them and before I posted them. You've got to hit these lines early. Best value in the best line.
Yes, I remember San Jose last week... I got it at -6.5, and it closed at -8... what's the problem with that? Same with Chicago... They opened at 8 and closed at what was it, 9.5? I also didn't make that an opening lines play... it was a game day play.
Gotta get the opening lines. If I don't get 'em then, someone else says something and pounds. All of this info is there for the public to find. Don't want them beating me to it. Vegas will set Orlando at 5.5 unless Philyaw is announced one way or the other.
Yes, I remember San Jose last week... I got it at -6.5, and it closed at -8... what's the problem with that? Same with Chicago... They opened at 8 and closed at what was it, 9.5? I also didn't make that an opening lines play... it was a game day play.
Gotta get the opening lines. If I don't get 'em then, someone else says something and pounds. All of this info is there for the public to find. Don't want them beating me to it. Vegas will set Orlando at 5.5 unless Philyaw is announced one way or the other.
The injuries are killing the Storm no doubt. It will take a huge effort to win in NO. The Tolliver loss was big but they picked up a couple of wins without him. Losing Soloman is worse. The other injuries are just overkill. I disagree that this is a trap game either way. This may be the Arena Football League but it is still Football. Seven is still an important number. Hanging a 6.5 keeps sharps from pounding New Orleans. I think Guru has already proven that. They will still get plenty of Voodoo money but now they can attract Storm money as well. Tampa has only lost one game, in Orlando, not Austin. No shame in that. I think you can see backers on both sides making decent arguments. See no trap, just good oddsmaking.
