Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 4

[AFLGuru]

Updated record following the Orlando/Dallas under W (+2.86 units)

Sides Record: 6-3 (+10.73 units)
Totals Record: 6-2 (+7.19 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 0-2 (-3 units)... and this was my strength last year...

Anway, that brings my composite record to...

YTD: 13-9
Net: +15.47 units

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

Nice call, Guru!

 

[AFLGuru]

Recapping this Orlando/Dallas game a bit further...

Preds had their worst defensive effort. Only mounted 3.5 stops on the game, one of which was a great goalline stand that gave them a shot with a minute left. No sacks. No turnovers. Dallas sacked Hamilton 4 times and forced 1 turnover that directly turned into 7 points. Neither team had a noticeable problem in the kicking game, though Carlos Martinez for Dallas missed a kick in the 3rd he probably should have made. The 21 points in the 2nd half is an AFL low this season. Orlando essentially admits to having overlooked the game. "Maybe we came in with too much confidence." -- Kenny McEntyre

I'm still not overly impressed with this Dallas team and don't think they're even going to be on the playoff map come week 14 and 15, let alone 16 and 17. Clint Stoerner had an okay game, but still hasn't shown signs of greatness needed in this league to compete and make a solid playoff push. Dallas gets a game at Philly next week, which shouldn't be overly close. Dallas has been a nice story at home, beating Orlando, Chicago, and Columbus, but this team has a lot of road dates left, which should catch up with them in the end. Don't be too overly shocked if we still win under 6 with this team, though it looks quite grim.

As for my Preds... Next up is Chicago, in a game they were looking forward to. Orlando isn't necessarily the better team in this matchup, though I do feel that it pits two of the top 5 teams in the AFL (no particular order, San Jose, Tampa, Orlando, Chicago, New Orleans in my opinion). The Predators still have a relentless defense, averaging giving up just 41.25 points per game (almost 4 points per game of which were bullcrap points by Tampa). Chicago also has a great defense, and should they not falter this week against Columbus, will have the momentum. Orlando will have a couple extra days off, though, and this should give them an advantage built in... Should be a GREAT game for NBC next Sunday.

Looking forward to tomorrow night's action. Should be some fun games to track.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[LakersFan4Life]

well after following u AG i decided to take it a step further in learning this game.im 15 mins from staples center so i got tickets for sundays game avengers vs the saberkitties.this ones to the game sunday :toast:

 

[LakersFan4Life]

you were the only one who got the orlando game right o 0 (should start fading other predictions) i wonder if the thread will read top 50 bling blings "cant trust them" haha gl to all

 

[AFLGuru]

LakersFan--

I don't believe in fading people in general. It's easier to hit 58% right ATS than it is to hit 40% ATS... and if someone is posting picks and hitting at 40%, they either are in a terrible stretch of luck and bound to get better, or will probably stop making picks...

And I can't say anything about BrownsFan, PPeter, Olddog, or CERTAINLY Budworth, but after speaking to Ace, I can almost guarantee that he's going to end up being a winner this year. He's not going to do it by chasing things. He's going to do it by being methodical and working with a system that he will have dead perfect by year's end. I'm very confident in his abilities, though we've ended up clashing on several picks in the past three weeks (and I believe 5 in the past 2 weeks including the over in the New Orleans/Philly game).

And I'm glad to hear I've born another AFL fan. Every fan is great for the game. Be proud of your hometown Avengers whether you bet on San Jose or not. They've had a hell of a start to the season and might make me look quite foolish tomorrow night. Just out of curiosity, how much do they want for seats in La La Land? I know in Orlando, the seats are as cheap as $7 and as expensive as like $55. In Tampa it's about the same, except I think the cheapest seat is $12 unless they open up the very upper level. Perhaps TampaLuke knows better than I, as I've only been to 5 games in Tampa, and two of those were playoff games where the prices were surely higher (especially for the Arena Bowl a few years back when Orlando picked apart Tampa in the greatest game in AFL history as far as I'm concerned).

--AFLGuru

 

[LakersFan4Life]

you know they get us out here haha there were from 10-$66 i went ahead n coughed up the $66 figuring the first time the best seat will make the best impression.yeah i was reading up on both teams i still like your pick -8 i think its going to be a bad day for the avengers.im checking out the teams and there rosters i know alot of these people from all teams from college etc.should be a fun time.

 

[AFLGuru]

$66, wow... better get a football from those seats... Hell, if you get the football, it'll pay for the seats... Just buying a ball at the game is like $45.

Enjoy the game my friend. You'll never think the same thing after seeing the game up close and in person.

--AFLGuru

 

[LakersFan4Life]

you want a ball i got no problem getting you one.all the work and effort you put forth for us thats the least i can do.just let me know and its done.

 

[buzz21]

Hey - I used to live in Tampa and I think it was like $5 when they were playing in the old Thunderdome....even at current prices it is good entertainment. The "WAR ON I-4" was always a blast between Tampa and Orlando...both teams travel well for it and the crowds were nuts!

 

[LakersFan4Life]

hey buzz what part of so cal?im from san bernadino county

 

[AFLGuru]

Lol... LakersFan...

Where I sit at Preds games, it's impossible to get a football. I'm right behind the net, 4 rows up. I mean I'm literally right on the field where the guys come out from, but there's never a shot at a football... I'll live without one. Of course, I miss the games... I go to roughly 1 a season now that I live in Tallahassee instead of Orlando. Parents still have season tickets. I'll be going to the San Jose game in two weeks (Spring Break), but aside from that, probably no tickets the rest of the year for me.

Enjoy yourself at the game. Should be a blast. Make sure you get there early enough and watch warm-ups. That's a great part of the game, especially if you have good seats. You'll get some good interaction with the players on the field on both sides. If you happen to see Barry Wagner out there, tell him Orlando can't wait for his return. We miss him so dearly in Orlando it's not even funny. Guaranteed, he gets the best ovation anyone, home or away, will get all season when he comes through the tunnel. Hope they let him wear 82 that game too... He'll always be 82 in our hearts... None of this "2" crap. Wagner proposed at a Preds game. He broke records in the Jungle. Became "the ultimate Ironman" in Orlando. Won games on both sides of the ball and simply won over the hearts of Predators fans everywhere. No joke, the city was more disappointed when the news leaked that Barry Wagner was headed to San Jose than when the news leaked that Shaq left for La La Land.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[LakersFan4Life]

wow well that sux i shall keep an eye out for him as far as the seats there sec 108 thats going to be midfield 7 rows up.i saw your post early san jose -8.im going to lay on that then go root for a great game that covers of course.if a football does happen to come my way its all yours.gl to ev1 on a great sports weekend coming up. :howdy:

 

[AFLGuru]

Keep an eye out for a late play tomorrow... Feeling a bit lucky and developing some interesting reads on two of the games.

Note in the San Jose game that Omar Smith is out, which doesn't bode well for us... Smith may miss the rest of the season because his knee injury is worse than initially thought... I believe they said something about the PCL, but I didn't read the report very closely. "Knee" was enough for me. But he's certainly out the next two games on IR. The line is probably going to fall back to around 7.5 or 8 by gametime, which I still believe to be a solid number anywhere up to about 11.5. San Jose still needs to put together this "San Jose" game. Let's remember that this is still the favorite to win it all, and against the other Western Division team they played, they only shut out Vegas in the 2nd half and romped them for the game. The two teams they lost to were both long road trips and against solid opponents much superior to that of this LA team. Remy Hamilton is bound to miss some kicks eventually.... you'd like to think.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Couple reasons for this...

First off, I went back and read the posts from before, and I do sound like a pretty big a$$ about this whole mess going on at the beginning of the week. I wanna make sure it's known that these aren't my real thoughts about this place. I was just really really p.o.ed at the current moment and needed to vent some steam. Tuesday, you'll see my plays back here once again, though I'm changing the way I'm going to go about posting these... explanation coming next week. Don't worry, picks will be here Tuesday afternoon, or whenever Pinny opens up the lines. I still have the utmost respect for everyone on these boards and try to answer everyone's questions and comments in timely fashions, along with supplying some winners to you all. Extra money for tourney time!

To correct the San Jose report for certain: Omar Smith: out, James Hundon: out.

To correct the Colorado/Arizona game: Shredrick Bonner is "doubtful" for the game according to my buddy who works for a local radio station in Phoenix. Despite any report that Bonner is officially out, as of about an hour ago, Bonner was reportedly practicing with the first team but could hardly move. This leads him and myself to believe that Bonner is going to sit another week out before coming back, but the outside chance is there that he'll suit it up tomorrow night to start, or perhaps be set to come in should Germaine struggle or get injured.

To recap what we've got tomorrow thus far...

Chicago -3 as part of a teaser with San Jose -1 for 3 units. Should collect on the first part of this teaser to set up SJ -1 on Sunday for 3 units. Starting to like Chicago's chances more and more in this one as the reports roll in. Watch for Raymond Philyaw to go nuts in this one.

Reiteration: Austin/Grand Rapids is going to be the worst game to try to cap all season. No one has any clue what's going on. Nothing would shock me in this game. Austin is the better team. Grand Rapids is at home still working into a new offensive system that might have come into its own a couple weeks back in the 2nd half. Austin hasn't been able to score. Grand Rapids hasn't been able to defend and has a whole new secondary... basically it's just a big mess. Don't bet this game unless you're simply craving the action. But even then, I don't even know where to begin to make a prediction on the game.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[buzz21]

LakerFan - I'm in beautiful San Diego and lovin it !

Guru - what do you think about teasing that CHI -3 with that Philly/NO over 100.5...maybe that insulates us if SJ has some problems....????

 

[LakersFan4Life]

i havnt made a bid yet i didnt get it when it first opened so i was waiting to hear of anyone out like the san jose game is it still a strong bet? from reading everything your posting i think it is but it never hurts to double check =)

 

[AFLGuru]

Not a bad call at all Buzz... The only problem I have with that is that the teased number is still higher than the number I initially got, which is always scary. The fact that the lines have moved that much is insane. Anyway, I do like teasing Chicago across the board tonight (obviously don't do that... I'm saying that teasing Chicago with anything is probably a good start), but always beware that let down fact. To be honest, Buzz... I'd be more afraid of Chicago than San Jose, particularly if we can get that SJ line to drop another half point to 8.5, giving you SJ -1 like I had them. Basically a moneyline bet, and a void if they come out and win on a missed PAT... which would be awfully poetic considering EVERYONE is up Remy Hamilton's a$$ right now... he's a kicker... he'll resort back to a mean of PATs and FGs as the season progresses.

And follow Ace tonight... I'm not going to make it one of my "official" plays because you can't get the offer on Pinnacle. But tail him. He's due for something massive. Even though I know I said no one knows anything about this Grand Rapids/Austin game... and I still contend that I'm right because I don't even know if the guys on Grand Rapids can name their defensive specialists right now... tail him. I trust him on this one 100%. The play is under in the 1st half of the Grand Rapids/Austin game.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

And follow Ace tonight... I'm not going to make it one of my "official" plays because you can't get the offer on Pinnacle. But tail him. He's due for something massive. Even though I know I said no one knows anything about this Grand Rapids/Austin game... and I still contend that I'm right because I don't even know if the guys on Grand Rapids can name their defensive specialists right now... tail him. I trust him on this one 100%. The play is under in the 1st half of the Grand Rapids/Austin game.

--AFLGuru:toast:

CONSENSUS OF THE MIND......THANKS FOR SENDING THE ELEVATOR BACK DOWN!!!

ITS TRUE LOOKS LIKE UNDER .....OR A LONG WAY TO BREAK EVEN:sad3:

ACE

 

[AFLGuru]

Adding:

Chicago (-13.5) @ Columbus (2 units, +129): I'm sold on this Columbus team being pretty bad. I'm also sold on the fact that Chicago is a massively better team than Columbus and should destroy them. I'll take my chances that Chicago wants to send a big message to the Preds about their chances next Sunday in Chicago.

Nashville @ New York over 100.5 (2 units, +100): A lot of this is a play of percentages... New York is going to play an over game at some point this year... lol. But really, I don't think this game is going to be anything close. New York is dangerous at home. Kevin Swayne coming back leaves a full compliment of weapons for Aaron Garcia to pick on a Nashville secondary that is still getting burned by blown coverage. If this game doesn't stay close, it'll soar over, as Pat Sperdeuto isn't afraid to onside kick early and often.

Grand Salami over 783 (3 units, -105): Once again, percentage play. I think that this is the week we see the insane 77-74 final score or something like that. Possibly the New Orleans/Philly game, possibly the San Jose/Los Angeles game. This bet will be won or lost tonight though. We need to average 102 points per game in this last 7 to be a winner. Tonight we have Chicago and New York who should blow out their opponents. Games that are blowouts are more prone to be 72-45 final scores, which would help us out a lot. Shredrick Bonner likely not playing for Arizona probably means a lower scoring game, but regardless, anything over 90 should leave us solid enough in that game. Remember in this bet we get a 70 point head start thanks to Orlando/Dallas not being good contributers. But I can see either or both of the New York and Chicago games being ugly ugly 2nd halfs with TONS of points between the teams. I won't play this stupid Grand Salami often, but tonight I will. I think this number should be around 800 still. In fact it was 813 before the Orlando game and dropped 30 points thanks to Orlando being under. Too much value in it not to bet.

Best of luck tonight on all of your action.

--AFLGuru:toast: