Pinnacle has several games OTB right now......I know you like the Under in Orl/Dal, Guru, but the total is now down to 93. Still an Under play??......I am playing LV/GA Over 92.5 for Sunday. That is a play for sure. Vegas is due to put up some points. I think both teams can score against each other.......Any further thoughts on Arizona/Colo? The total is 102 at Pinny......
I know, I hate when Pinnacle does this... They take all the games off the board and the spreads come back all screwed up. 93 is a bit low on this Orlando game. Overs are easier to lose points in than unders because points aren't exactly usually at a premium in the AFL... lol.
Just lay off of the Colorado game. Fun game to watch. Not a fun game to try to cap or bet. Too many intangibles.
In regards to your over in the Georgia/LV game... It's not a bad play. Vegas is very due to score a ton of points, as is Georgia... It's just the fact that both teams play very ugly football. When Orlando plays Georgia this year the o/u is probably going to be set in the mid 80s the first time and the low 80s the 2nd time. Last year they played to a 30-7 game in one of the ugliest games in AFL history. Anyway, with the long road trip, this game is one that can still very easily be well under the total, but I don't mind the play since both teams are heavy on unders already and are due for a nice 100 point game. Nothing statistically suggests that except that they're due. That, and games under 99.5 I believe are over games something like 77% of the time this year, and that's an insane stat courtesy of Brewers.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Just lay off of the Colorado game. Fun game to watch. Not a fun game to try to cap or bet. Too many intangibles.
In regards to your over in the Georgia/LV game... It's not a bad play. Vegas is very due to score a ton of points, as is Georgia... It's just the fact that both teams play very ugly football. When Orlando plays Georgia this year the o/u is probably going to be set in the mid 80s the first time and the low 80s the 2nd time. Last year they played to a 30-7 game in one of the ugliest games in AFL history. Anyway, with the long road trip, this game is one that can still very easily be well under the total, but I don't mind the play since both teams are heavy on unders already and are due for a nice 100 point game. Nothing statistically suggests that except that they're due. That, and games under 99.5 I believe are over games something like 77% of the time this year, and that's an insane stat courtesy of Brewers.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Guru, that's an insane clip the Overs are cashing at when posted at 99.5 or less. Wow! I wonder what the same situation cashed at last season??? Any idea?
I'm playing Orl/Dal Over 93 and LV/Ga Over 92.5. I am going to pass on the sides this week. I just can't decide. I like Color but will take your advice & leave it alone. I like San Jose but last I saw the line, they were -13 I think. That just seemed too high.
I'll cross my fingers on the totals.
Can't wait to see Orl/Chi next week. That will be a GREAT game.
Good luck and thanks.
I'm playing Orl/Dal Over 93 and LV/Ga Over 92.5. I am going to pass on the sides this week. I just can't decide. I like Color but will take your advice & leave it alone. I like San Jose but last I saw the line, they were -13 I think. That just seemed too high.
I'll cross my fingers on the totals.
Can't wait to see Orl/Chi next week. That will be a GREAT game.
Good luck and thanks.
Either ask Brewers to repost the data or find Ace's week 2 thread... all of the info is there on the record of that trend through the past like 4 seasons. If you ever want to know obscure trends, ask Brewers. Master of that crap. Tons of respect for a man willing to go back and track that stuff.
Going to miss the first half of the game tonight... I'm mega pissed I forgot to not schedule myself for work... Anyway, the game starts at 8:30, and you should see me right around 10:00 or 10:15 to start giving a play-by-play of the game. I ref soccer. Just praying no overtime tonight, ESPECIALLY in the late game. That and no major injuries... Watched some kid get carted off to the hospital last night because of interal bleeding and a dislocated hip. Sounds awfully painful.
Anyway, recap for tonight is ORLANDO AT DALLAS UNDER 98.5 for 3 units.
Best of luck... And when IS Pinnacle going to reopen all of these AFL lines... I note that Olympic had San Jose at -9.5, which is a solid number still.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Anyway, recap for tonight is ORLANDO AT DALLAS UNDER 98.5 for 3 units.
Best of luck... And when IS Pinnacle going to reopen all of these AFL lines... I note that Olympic had San Jose at -9.5, which is a solid number still.
--AFLGuru:toast:
First time Q thanks
interested in Arena football and have a Q. I have a Pinnacle account and on West coast Pacific time at 8.48 am I see the line for the under at 94 -112. Can there be a swing that big in such a short time ? (I guess it can happen) Or did you pay the extra last night to get it at 98 ? Just very curious thanks in advance... Sand
interested in Arena football and have a Q. I have a Pinnacle account and on West coast Pacific time at 8.48 am I see the line for the under at 94 -112. Can there be a swing that big in such a short time ? (I guess it can happen) Or did you pay the extra last night to get it at 98 ? Just very curious thanks in advance... Sand
Orlando @ Dallas Under 98.5 (3 units -105): Here's what I'm going to say about this game.... DO NOT, and I repeat, DO NOT take Orlando. This is a MEGA trap game for the Preds. The high scoring game last week for the Preds is a very good omen for under in this one. We probably bought ourselves a free 4 points on this one because of it. HOWEVER... Dallas 35 - Columbus 31. Need I say more? Dallas' offense is really overrated after dropping 66 on Chicago, a very solid defense in week one. However, you can't prepare for this Orlando defense... They're too solid. Joe Hamilton is still making some poor decisions, which will surely end some drives. Both teams take in a lot of penalties, which will take several minutes off of this game. Anything over 93 or so is still good value.
sand this was in a prior post from him so i guess its pushin it but its still a good bet on the under mine is right at 93...lol
sand this was in a prior post from him so i guess its pushin it but its still a good bet on the under mine is right at 93...lol
SJ Injuries
Guru - per the injury reports released Wed, Hundon is still out with cervical problem and exc DS-Omar Smith is questionable. Lots of linemen injured also. Cle Thomas looked a little rusty at N.O. last week:
OUT-<TABLE width=397><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 112.5pt" height=150><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 150pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=200>OL/DL Sebastian Barrie (L Hamstring Strain); WR/DB Yardon Brantley (L Hamstring Strain); FB/LB Kevin Buck (R Knee Surgery); WR/DB Erin Damond (R Knee Surgery); WR/DB James Hundon (Cervical Spine); OL/DL Kevin Jordan (Ankle Sprain); OL/DL Cedric Pittman (Patellar Dislocation); OL/DL Rex Richards (R Groin Strain); OL/DL Jeff Ruffin (R Groin Strain);</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 91pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; HEIGHT: 12.75pt" width=121 height=17></TD><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 80pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=106>QUESTIONABLE</TD><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 150pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=200>DS Omar Smith (Knee)</TD></TR></TBODY>
</TABLE>
Do you updated info that Hundun's going to play?
Guru - per the injury reports released Wed, Hundon is still out with cervical problem and exc DS-Omar Smith is questionable. Lots of linemen injured also. Cle Thomas looked a little rusty at N.O. last week:
OUT-<TABLE width=397><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 112.5pt" height=150><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 150pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=200>OL/DL Sebastian Barrie (L Hamstring Strain); WR/DB Yardon Brantley (L Hamstring Strain); FB/LB Kevin Buck (R Knee Surgery); WR/DB Erin Damond (R Knee Surgery); WR/DB James Hundon (Cervical Spine); OL/DL Kevin Jordan (Ankle Sprain); OL/DL Cedric Pittman (Patellar Dislocation); OL/DL Rex Richards (R Groin Strain); OL/DL Jeff Ruffin (R Groin Strain);</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 91pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; HEIGHT: 12.75pt" width=121 height=17></TD><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 80pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=106>QUESTIONABLE</TD><TD class=xl23 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; WIDTH: 150pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in" width=200>DS Omar Smith (Knee)</TD></TR></TBODY>
</TABLE>
Do you updated info that Hundun's going to play?
Couple things...
Sand-- These lines are all based off of what is released Tuesday at roughly 1:00 EST. Tons of value in these opening lines that isn't necessary there in the lines of game day. Yes, these lines FLY, especially after I post them here.
LakerFan-- Obviously less value in a number that's that much lower... When betting under, points are MUCH more valuable than betting over. That being said, I still believe the game is going to be under this number, but out of respect for the play of Ace, which his logic I don't disagree, I won't tell you for certain that you should or should not play this.
DJBrow-- NO ONE knows what's going on in this Austin/Grand Rapids game. The game of the year was Chicago +8 when it opened against Philly. Austin sucks. Grand Rapids sucks... I agree that Austin is the better team, but the best guy on the field is on Grand Rapids, and they're gonna win a home game eventually... hell, it's been almost two seasons... Don't like the play.
Olddog-- You're right about the Hundon injury. I read somewhere that he was now ELIGIBLE to come off of the IR, but having read more reports, it doesn't sound as though that's happening this season, let alone any time in the near future. All of these other guys that have been out except Omarr Smith have been out the rest of the season if memory serves... there's no names that jump out. Missing Omarr Smith would be key if Clevan Thomas looks that bad, but let's remember that this was a terrible matchup Thomas had, going up against Thabiti Davis for the most part. Thomas is giving up about 6 inches to Davis, leaving him almost no chance. Then he just gets burned by Aaron Bailey... incredible, but predictable. This week he'll get matched up with some much better competition for him, as none of LA's receivers will strike fear into the hearts of the Saberkittens. Don't know if Smith's gonna play though... and until we know that for certain, I'd stop playing this game... Don't play it the other way... I still think San Jose is going to cover even if they don't have Smith, but lay caution to the wind until we have some more information.
Should take care of everyone's questions and comments...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Sand-- These lines are all based off of what is released Tuesday at roughly 1:00 EST. Tons of value in these opening lines that isn't necessary there in the lines of game day. Yes, these lines FLY, especially after I post them here.
LakerFan-- Obviously less value in a number that's that much lower... When betting under, points are MUCH more valuable than betting over. That being said, I still believe the game is going to be under this number, but out of respect for the play of Ace, which his logic I don't disagree, I won't tell you for certain that you should or should not play this.
DJBrow-- NO ONE knows what's going on in this Austin/Grand Rapids game. The game of the year was Chicago +8 when it opened against Philly. Austin sucks. Grand Rapids sucks... I agree that Austin is the better team, but the best guy on the field is on Grand Rapids, and they're gonna win a home game eventually... hell, it's been almost two seasons... Don't like the play.
Olddog-- You're right about the Hundon injury. I read somewhere that he was now ELIGIBLE to come off of the IR, but having read more reports, it doesn't sound as though that's happening this season, let alone any time in the near future. All of these other guys that have been out except Omarr Smith have been out the rest of the season if memory serves... there's no names that jump out. Missing Omarr Smith would be key if Clevan Thomas looks that bad, but let's remember that this was a terrible matchup Thomas had, going up against Thabiti Davis for the most part. Thomas is giving up about 6 inches to Davis, leaving him almost no chance. Then he just gets burned by Aaron Bailey... incredible, but predictable. This week he'll get matched up with some much better competition for him, as none of LA's receivers will strike fear into the hearts of the Saberkittens. Don't know if Smith's gonna play though... and until we know that for certain, I'd stop playing this game... Don't play it the other way... I still think San Jose is going to cover even if they don't have Smith, but lay caution to the wind until we have some more information.
Should take care of everyone's questions and comments...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Ton of late money coming in on Dallas and the over... 95 is starting to creep back towards a solid under number. Can't keep you posted as I'm off to... *sigh*... work until about 10:15 or so.... See you all around halftime of the game. Here's to a 48-0 Predators victory... Wait... gotta get Ace's over in there too.... 96-0 Predators... lol... that'll be the day.
--AFLGuru:toast:
--AFLGuru:toast:
