I've already got Western Michigan. Nevada/Maryland is a very tough game. If I knew Maryland's stud WR Heyward-Bey was going to play, I might consider Maryland. He questionable for the game. Without him I'm not sure Maryland can move the ball effectively on the ground without a pass game to get the win. Tough call..Right now I have a small lean to OSU over Oregon. But it goes against my running dog system. So that's also a tough one. But after the bad showing by Missouri tonight, we might actually get a more decent line on OSU by kickoff. Another tough game. But it's just my opinion that the Pac-10 is way way down this year. And that's why Oregon has the better run numbers than OSU. But I believe OSU is the more well balanced team with a similar strength defense. I'll have a lot more on this game tomorrow if I decide to play it.
GS-
i was just remembering this post from the beginning of this thread...i didn't play it bc i'm trying to be judicious with my plays, and i know NW didn't win, but the flow of that game certainly felt the same as that game a few years ago, or like you mentioned the texas-iowa game...the only difference was iowa had been to bowls before, but nebraska and now NW hadn't which made me think of the similarities
taking tmrw off but will be playing on the 31st-
good luck tmrw
I'm probably done playing totals for these bowls unless I see one that I can't resist. But if I was playing the total for this game it would worry me a little that not one person has said they like the under. Other than that, I can easily see both of these teams getting to 76 if they play like their recent form.
Yeah, I really need to start looking at the motivation factor in these games. Although it can be very hard to guess sometimes how a team is going to come out.. It was obvious that NW was very happy to be there in the dog role, and they played like it all game. Mizzou played just well enough to win. But they probably didn't deserve to. NW outplayed them for most of the game. I kind of feel sorry for them. They are still winless in their bowl games since 1949. Trent...Do you have any thoughts on the Kansas/Minny game? I really haven't looked at it much yet.
Trentmoney has a pretty good explanation for this in post #379 above. And I think there is something to his theory. Although personally I think the under is a more hittable total in these bowls than the over. At least that's what I've done better with.. But totals are tricky anyway you look at it. You've got teams who have been preparing for each other for a month. And many times the defenisve coordinators win the gameplan.
when the lines came out for these bowls i looked at motor city and i couldn't believe they set the total at 62 and even told my bookie/friend that it was set too low...but by game time it was 70.5!!! i was talking about it with a friend and this was my take:
between the 24 combined games of fau and cmu only 5 would have gone over the new 70.5 total
if those 2 teams met in october the line would have been 58 or 59
books already shaded it 3-4 pts at 62
by the time it reached 70.5 it was almost 2 TDs over what the normal line would have been had it been a regular season game, thus presenting tremendous value
now i didn't play it bc my initial feeling was over at 62 so for me to change my mind and then have it turn into a shootout would have really bothered me...but ultimately, 38-31 is a shootout and that still would have gone under 70.5
with today's game both offenses were hot, but rutgers defense had played well last few games, and nc st held wake and unc to low point totals...the opening was 48, which obviously hit, but by the time it hits 57-58 the move is just too big to win consistently...you might hit that once in a while but you can't give away 10 pts on a line and make a living...the oddsmakers are too good for that to happen
good luck
it's tough for me to play teams like mich st or minny because i felt they were over-rated in november and faded them each a few times...but now they are both big dogs to under-achieving teams and could represent value
i don't know kansas that well, but it surprised me when they opened DD favs...what did they do to deserve that? 7-5 teams shouldn't be big faves over another 7-5 team if they're both from BCS conferences imo, i don't care how they ended the season...
as you saw with missouri tonight, if you play bad defense all year, you can't just go out and expect to make key stops all game long, and that's what you need when you're that big a favorite. look how many 3rd down conversions NW made tonight!
now i know texas and oklahoma play defense, but the bottom line is when you play that type of style all year long, you can't just use it as an excuse that "no one plays defense"...either you play defense, know your assignments, and KNOW HOW TO TACKLE, or you don't! you can't just turn it on, especially after being off for 4 weeks...so for teams like mizzou, texas tech, kansas, ok st, nebraska, i just don't know how they will fair in these bowl games, especially if your a big fave, which kansas is
i know minny will play tough, and maybe they're a little salty after getting blown out in their final game, as opposed to kansas being giddy after beating mizzou, and unmotivated after playing in the orange bowl last year...if you had to ask kansas players which game they would rather win, i'm sure they would say beating mizzou is much bigger than beating minny in a bowl game
having said that, i'm passing on both minny and mich st, but if i had to i would take the points with both
good luck
If I played a teaser I would probably have to go with Maryland and Western Michigan. Maryland because so far the ACC is 5-0 ATS this bowl season. And also because they will have their stud WR Heyward-Bey more than likely back playing in this game after an injury. Which is BIG for this team's chances.. And Western Michigan because Rice doesn't have a good enough defense to be giving 3 points, much less 10 points...BOL
Trent...If you had told me before the game that Missouri was going to hold Northwestern to 72 yards rushing, I probably would have given the points again. The thing that surprised me more than anything about that game last night was how ineffective Missouri was on offense in front a a pro-Big 12 crowd. Chase Daniel had only 200 yards passing. Which was another surprise. Actually, I thought Missouri's defense played well in the second half of that game. But I've got to give NW credit on defense. It looked much better than I thought it would against Missouri's spread. I think the two big weaknesses on both the Missouri and Kansas teams is not as much their defense as their running games. It has been almost nonexsistent at times this season for both teams. And it puts a lot of pressure on both Daniel and Ressing to make plays. And Daniel tried to force a lot of plays last night. I still don't know what to make of the Big 10. NW looked good in losing and Wisconsin got blown out, but had a big day rushing the ball. Special teams and turnovers did them in. I'm not sure what to make of Minny yet. But as far as Michigan State and Georgia go, keep in mind that Georgia is about like Missouri. They don't play defense. And now they're asked to win by a TD or more over a well coached Michigan State team on the road? I'm not sure I'm buying that.
I've seen one person pull the trigger here on the UNDER but that is it. It is a high line but I think easily achievable if teams hold true to form. Personally, I don't believe that OSU has a chance in hell of shutting down the ducks run game. They'll have to try to do what every team has tried, load up the box and dare the ducks to beat them in the air. Difference in last 3 games was that Oregon was able to do just that and this was against much better defenses than OSU will put out on the field. If Oregon can manage an early DD lead then I expect OSU to go to the air, they'll have success in that and most likely the second half of this game will be a back and forth affair.
Best of luck, you are having yet another nice bowl run!
