Friday
12Noon.
Clemson -3(-135) over KY. 5 units
Kentucky was out scored by 16pts per game vs bowlers. and they allowed an astonishing 40 pts per game average,
Clemson has struggled all year and losing tp Duke and FSU was the indicator they they were not as good as projected.
What is still solid about Clemson is their pass defense. It holds the average yards per pass at one of the best of all the bowlers, ranked #5 at 4.8 in regular season combined, while still very solid vs bowlers at 5.2.
KY on the other hand is very poor allowing 9.2 yds per pass ands its also 3 yds per pass less than what they do on offense vs bowlers.
The Clemson run game dominated opponents and has 163 yds per game vs bowlers while KY only averaged 98 yds vs bowlers.
Clemson also holds a superior advantage in first downs over opponents by a whopping 280 while allowing only 173.
KY first downs suffer and are negative, with 209 while opponents had 241
KY is a passing team but hey allow opponents to have more success - with a defense pass rating of 140 while Clemson hold opponents to only 98.
The SEC is a dominating conference historically - but has softened in the last several years.
The fact that Clemson dominated in first downs over KY defensively - I see KY having a hard time staying with Clemson.
KY star RB Davis ( reason for opening line dropping) is playing, after saying he was declaring for the draft - and he had 1000 yds rushing this season on a team that only avaerged only 98 yds per game vs bowlers.
I think Clemson shuts him f=down and if you cant run the ball and are relying on passing against the #5 passing defense - then show me.
More later
12Noon.
Clemson -3(-135) over KY. 5 units
Kentucky was out scored by 16pts per game vs bowlers. and they allowed an astonishing 40 pts per game average,
Clemson has struggled all year and losing tp Duke and FSU was the indicator they they were not as good as projected.
What is still solid about Clemson is their pass defense. It holds the average yards per pass at one of the best of all the bowlers, ranked #5 at 4.8 in regular season combined, while still very solid vs bowlers at 5.2.
KY on the other hand is very poor allowing 9.2 yds per pass ands its also 3 yds per pass less than what they do on offense vs bowlers.
The Clemson run game dominated opponents and has 163 yds per game vs bowlers while KY only averaged 98 yds vs bowlers.
Clemson also holds a superior advantage in first downs over opponents by a whopping 280 while allowing only 173.
KY first downs suffer and are negative, with 209 while opponents had 241
KY is a passing team but hey allow opponents to have more success - with a defense pass rating of 140 while Clemson hold opponents to only 98.
The SEC is a dominating conference historically - but has softened in the last several years.
The fact that Clemson dominated in first downs over KY defensively - I see KY having a hard time staying with Clemson.
KY star RB Davis ( reason for opening line dropping) is playing, after saying he was declaring for the draft - and he had 1000 yds rushing this season on a team that only avaerged only 98 yds per game vs bowlers.
I think Clemson shuts him f=down and if you cant run the ball and are relying on passing against the #5 passing defense - then show me.
More later
2PM
Notre Dame -4.5 over Oregon State. 10 units
Two teams with backup QB's.
The Sun Bowl could have featured a quarterback battle between Sam Hartman and DJ Uiagalelei.
Instead, two signal-callers making their first starts of the season will be on display when No. 16 Notre Dame battles No. 19 Oregon State on Friday in El Paso, Texas.
Hartman opted out of the contest for Notre Dame to prepare for the NFL draft, while Uiagalelei of Oregon State entered the transfer portal.
Also, Beavers second-string quarterback Aidan Chiles entered the portal and chose Michigan State, the school that just hired Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State to be its coach. That puts a third stringer in a QB for the Beavers..
Would have to play ND just from a player quality factor.
Notre Dame -4.5 over Oregon State. 10 units
Two teams with backup QB's.
The Sun Bowl could have featured a quarterback battle between Sam Hartman and DJ Uiagalelei.
Instead, two signal-callers making their first starts of the season will be on display when No. 16 Notre Dame battles No. 19 Oregon State on Friday in El Paso, Texas.
Hartman opted out of the contest for Notre Dame to prepare for the NFL draft, while Uiagalelei of Oregon State entered the transfer portal.
Also, Beavers second-string quarterback Aidan Chiles entered the portal and chose Michigan State, the school that just hired Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State to be its coach. That puts a third stringer in a QB for the Beavers..
Would have to play ND just from a player quality factor.
3:30PM
Iowa State -9.5 (-130) <Buy the point. over Memphis. 10 units
Iowa Stats played within 10 points of Texas and beat Kansas State Those two teams had 5 combined losses in 26 games.
Iowa St. played far tougher bowl teams all of which combined were higher ranked that who Memphis played.
Just that fact Memphis gave up an average of 443yds/gm and ISU gave up only 375 makes Iowa State the play.
Iowa State -9.5 (-130) <Buy the point. over Memphis. 10 units
Iowa Stats played within 10 points of Texas and beat Kansas State Those two teams had 5 combined losses in 26 games.
Iowa St. played far tougher bowl teams all of which combined were higher ranked that who Memphis played.
Just that fact Memphis gave up an average of 443yds/gm and ISU gave up only 375 makes Iowa State the play.
My Books. I actually bought it down to 4 after I posted this.
But For all of you who constantly come in posts and ask where did you get lines from, I post what the line is that I use and bet. If you have to buy a half or a point then do it.
When a play is made, if you want to bet lines that are against you and youre not buying points, then thats flat out wrong. Juice isnt important when you can lose a game by a number off a key number that is against you.
People can debate line moves or value to a point of losing, instead of playing smart.
Clemson pushed. Was I smarter to play it at 4 (-110) and LOSE?
If you cant buy points, then find another book.
Its also smart to buy live numbers when your team is way ahead or way behind in game that are likely going to be close.
Live lines give a great chance to guarantee a Middle win, or prevent a loss.
Usually if you have the dog and they losing badlay the live lines are posted so the loser still can't win.
Casinos are rarely beat by live loser plays by the bettors hoping to catch up and never really get inside the original number.
If you bet the Jets +13.5 after having them originally at +7, lts likely going to be another loss. Hope you get what Im saying.
BOL.
8PM
tOhio State University -4.5 over Missouri. 15 units.
Missouri faced one team with a defense better than 20 points. Georgia. They were held to 21 points.
Buckeys have the top #3 defense of all bowlers and allowed only 14points per game.
They also have the best passing D at 155yds per game.
I dont think this game will be close. .
tOhio State University -4.5 over Missouri. 15 units.
Missouri faced one team with a defense better than 20 points. Georgia. They were held to 21 points.
Buckeys have the top #3 defense of all bowlers and allowed only 14points per game.
They also have the best passing D at 155yds per game.
I dont think this game will be close. .
Thursday -friday. 4-3. -550.00
W 4. +3000.00
L 3. -3500.00
Bowls thru Dec-29. 16-15.- 2460.00
bad move on my part. Didnt think Beck was starting.
Bought the bet back as soon as I seen him in.
Too late to correct here.
Hope I streak out with the last 7 including Toledo.
Thanks Hedge.
Appreciate the comment.
The opt-outs really killed me against my numbers. No excuse here. Just facts that players were out and made it tough to justify the changes.
Decent backups that started were also knocked out of big bet games in first qtr. Hard to win with 3rd stringers...
Six 6 games had large leads and all 6 were blown.
Lets see if I can finish in the plus+ with the remaining games.
Those that are remaining should bring some wins.
BOL . Happy New Year!
