Tuesday
I'll be back early tomorrow.
Tuesday 9PM
Marshall +13(-120) over UTSA... 5 units
Marshall QB Fancher leaving(Portal) - shouldn't matter as much as how effective is QB Frank Harris for UTSA. Harris had 2 int's and UTSA had 5 turnovers their last game and lost to Tulane.
The matchup here is radically unbalanced from a competition -level, for one main reason.
Marshall faced an amazing Ten (10) straight bowlers in 13 games and was only outscored by 6 points per game average. They were 4-6 SU vs bowlers.
Cole Pennington (Son of former Pro QB Chad Pennington) will be the starter for Marshall and has had time to get ready. He did throw 6 int's in 3 games as a fill-in, but 3 of those games were over aearly as Fancher was throwing Int's himself.
Marshall was held to 9 points or less 3 tines in the 5 game losing streak with Fancher starting all 5 games. Losing him should be no big deal today.
UTSA win margin vs the 5 bowlers they faced were only by 3 points per game. Three(3) of those games, were home games...
I expect the Herd to RUN well all day vs UTSA who gave up 4.4 yds per carry vs Bowlers....
Marshall +13(-120) over UTSA... 5 units
Marshall QB Fancher leaving(Portal) - shouldn't matter as much as how effective is QB Frank Harris for UTSA. Harris had 2 int's and UTSA had 5 turnovers their last game and lost to Tulane.
The matchup here is radically unbalanced from a competition -level, for one main reason.
Marshall faced an amazing Ten (10) straight bowlers in 13 games and was only outscored by 6 points per game average. They were 4-6 SU vs bowlers.
Cole Pennington (Son of former Pro QB Chad Pennington) will be the starter for Marshall and has had time to get ready. He did throw 6 int's in 3 games as a fill-in, but 3 of those games were over aearly as Fancher was throwing Int's himself.
Marshall was held to 9 points or less 3 tines in the 5 game losing streak with Fancher starting all 5 games. Losing him should be no big deal today.
UTSA win margin vs the 5 bowlers they faced were only by 3 points per game. Three(3) of those games, were home games...
I expect the Herd to RUN well all day vs UTSA who gave up 4.4 yds per carry vs Bowlers....
Thursday
Syracuse-ML-155 over UCF. 4 units
Cuse-2.5(-130) as well if you cant get ML
Hard to bet on a team that scored only 11 points per game vs bowlers, but they are facing a pathetic defense in UCF who allowed 39pts per game vs bowlers.
In addition, Cuse has started scoring in the last 3 games of the season which tells me facing a team like UCF with a poor defense that they could score.
Cuse defense is superior especially since they play upper level teams.
The Cuse starting QB (Schrader) is out and so is the backup (Del-Rio Wilson). so here we are again with a 3rd string QB?
Well - the last 2 games that started a backup or 3rd string QB's all won SU.
Im betting that the Cuse defense will create scoring opportunities for the Cuse offense.
They do run the Wild Cat offense and have a top RB with over 1000 yards who IS playing.
UCF allowed 41,49 and 59 pts in road games vs bowlers - so their real defensive numbers are worse when traveling.
Syracuse-ML-155 over UCF. 4 units
Cuse-2.5(-130) as well if you cant get ML
Hard to bet on a team that scored only 11 points per game vs bowlers, but they are facing a pathetic defense in UCF who allowed 39pts per game vs bowlers.
In addition, Cuse has started scoring in the last 3 games of the season which tells me facing a team like UCF with a poor defense that they could score.
Cuse defense is superior especially since they play upper level teams.
The Cuse starting QB (Schrader) is out and so is the backup (Del-Rio Wilson). so here we are again with a 3rd string QB?
Well - the last 2 games that started a backup or 3rd string QB's all won SU.
Im betting that the Cuse defense will create scoring opportunities for the Cuse offense.
They do run the Wild Cat offense and have a top RB with over 1000 yards who IS playing.
UCF allowed 41,49 and 59 pts in road games vs bowlers - so their real defensive numbers are worse when traveling.
Friday
UCF -4.5 over GT. 10 units.
Central Fla returned a nearly complete team from last year with 15 starters including the QB. No one transferred.
GT QB King (Transferred from A&M in 2022) is solid, but has 15 ints on the season. Big was exceptional running the ball and he averaged 6.0 yds per carry for over 600 yds. He is a dual threat.
The GT defense was soft and lost to Bowlers by allowing over 40 pts per game in road games vs Bowlers.
GT only won 2 games vs bowlers. They beat Syracuse and Miami,fl 23-20 but were out gained by 200 yds . The only reason they won that game was because Miami had 5 turnovers.
UCF played 7 bowlers and 5 were road games. The average point difference between the 7 teams was only -2 for UCF.
UCF -4.5 over GT. 10 units.
Central Fla returned a nearly complete team from last year with 15 starters including the QB. No one transferred.
GT QB King (Transferred from A&M in 2022) is solid, but has 15 ints on the season. Big was exceptional running the ball and he averaged 6.0 yds per carry for over 600 yds. He is a dual threat.
The GT defense was soft and lost to Bowlers by allowing over 40 pts per game in road games vs Bowlers.
GT only won 2 games vs bowlers. They beat Syracuse and Miami,fl 23-20 but were out gained by 200 yds . The only reason they won that game was because Miami had 5 turnovers.
UCF played 7 bowlers and 5 were road games. The average point difference between the 7 teams was only -2 for UCF.
Tough games last 4. 3 had Large leads early but all lost.
Saturday Noon.
Troy-6.5 (-125) Over Duke. 10 units
Troy has Better offense, better defense and Duke lost starting QB Leonard to injury last month.
Troy dominated bowlers by 11 pts per game.
NIU+2.5 over Arky State. 10 units
Superior defense for NIU. NIU has 14 pt. advantage on defense over Arky state.'
More at 3PM
Saturday Noon.
Troy-6.5 (-125) Over Duke. 10 units
Troy has Better offense, better defense and Duke lost starting QB Leonard to injury last month.
Troy dominated bowlers by 11 pts per game.
NIU+2.5 over Arky State. 10 units
Superior defense for NIU. NIU has 14 pt. advantage on defense over Arky state.'
More at 3PM
3:30PM
James Madison. +3 (-135) - over Air Force. 10 units
Utah State -ML-125 over Ga Southern. 10 units
Utah State starting 3rd string QB today,
Levi Williams gets a second chance to shine at the Potato Bowl.
Utah State's backup quarterback draws the start Saturday in Boise, Idaho, where the Aggies meet slumping Georgia State with Williams returning to the same game where he was awarded Most Valuable Player honors in 2021.
Williams piloted Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State, running for 200 yards and scoring four touchdowns in that game. This year, he has the chance to lead Utah State (6-6) to a winning season and perhaps enjoy another big game while doing it.
"Bring me back to the Potato Bowl, I guess," Williams said. "But I'm super blessed and super humbled. I love this team and we're going to try to go up there and get a nice win to end the season."
Williams is a big reason Utah State is here, running for three scores and throwing for two more on Nov. 26 in a 44-41 double overtime win at New Mexico. He accounted for 351 total yards, rushing for 153 on 25 carries and completing 16 of 27 attempts for 198 yards.
His 13-yard touchdown run was the decisive score that made the Aggies bowl-eligible.
"Levi did a great job at New Mexico," said Utah State coach Blake Anderson. "I thought he did a phenomenal job coming in that last week, preparing the right way and going out playing with some poise and leadership."
Williams is actually the No. 3 quarterback on the depth chart but moved up the ladder with Cooper Legas (1,815 yards, 19 TD passes) and McCae Hillstead (1,005 yards, 10 TDs) shelved by injuries. The Aggies were 3-5 after a 42-21 loss at San Jose State Oct. 21 but won three of their four games in November, losing only to Mountain West Conference champion Boise State.
Georgia State (6-6) enters with little positive traction from the end of the regular season. The Panthers limp into bowl season with a five-game losing streak, blowing a 21-0 halftime lead in their regular-season finale on Nov. 26 in a bitter 25-24 loss at Old Dominion.
After that loss came two others, when leading rusher Marcus Carroll and top receiver Robert Lewis hit the transfer portal and surfaced quickly at Southeastern Conference programs; Carroll chose Missouri and Lewis went to Auburn.
Carroll rushed for 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and more than 100 yards per game. Lewis caught 70 passes for 881 yards and seven scores. That will be a lot of production to make up for Georgia State.
They are two of a whopping 13 Ga State players to hit the portal. Included are right tackle Montavious Cunningham (Virginia Tech) and cornerback Bryquice Brown (Boston College). One who stuck around is quarterback Darren Grainger, who threw for 2,368 yards with 17 touchdowns while adding 625 yards and eight scores on the ground.
"This is an opportunity for our football team to finish the season the right way," said Panthers coach Shawn Elliott.
--Field Level Media
E.Michigan +17.5 over So. Alabama. 10 units
EM faced 4 bowlers. All road games. Three 3 (Toledo, Minnesota and NIU) that were better than SA. (This is a home game for So.Alabama).
Northwestern +7 over Utah. 10 units.
NW ML+210. 2 units
Utah was outscored vs Bowler teams by 11 pts per game.
If NW does anything well, is creating Turnovers. They grabbed 9 in their last 3 games and won all 3 SU!
.That could be the difference in winning or losing today.
James Madison. +3 (-135) - over Air Force. 10 units
Utah State -ML-125 over Ga Southern. 10 units
Utah State starting 3rd string QB today,
Levi Williams gets a second chance to shine at the Potato Bowl.
Utah State's backup quarterback draws the start Saturday in Boise, Idaho, where the Aggies meet slumping Georgia State with Williams returning to the same game where he was awarded Most Valuable Player honors in 2021.
Williams piloted Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State, running for 200 yards and scoring four touchdowns in that game. This year, he has the chance to lead Utah State (6-6) to a winning season and perhaps enjoy another big game while doing it.
"Bring me back to the Potato Bowl, I guess," Williams said. "But I'm super blessed and super humbled. I love this team and we're going to try to go up there and get a nice win to end the season."
Williams is a big reason Utah State is here, running for three scores and throwing for two more on Nov. 26 in a 44-41 double overtime win at New Mexico. He accounted for 351 total yards, rushing for 153 on 25 carries and completing 16 of 27 attempts for 198 yards.
His 13-yard touchdown run was the decisive score that made the Aggies bowl-eligible.
"Levi did a great job at New Mexico," said Utah State coach Blake Anderson. "I thought he did a phenomenal job coming in that last week, preparing the right way and going out playing with some poise and leadership."
Williams is actually the No. 3 quarterback on the depth chart but moved up the ladder with Cooper Legas (1,815 yards, 19 TD passes) and McCae Hillstead (1,005 yards, 10 TDs) shelved by injuries. The Aggies were 3-5 after a 42-21 loss at San Jose State Oct. 21 but won three of their four games in November, losing only to Mountain West Conference champion Boise State.
Georgia State (6-6) enters with little positive traction from the end of the regular season. The Panthers limp into bowl season with a five-game losing streak, blowing a 21-0 halftime lead in their regular-season finale on Nov. 26 in a bitter 25-24 loss at Old Dominion.
After that loss came two others, when leading rusher Marcus Carroll and top receiver Robert Lewis hit the transfer portal and surfaced quickly at Southeastern Conference programs; Carroll chose Missouri and Lewis went to Auburn.
Carroll rushed for 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and more than 100 yards per game. Lewis caught 70 passes for 881 yards and seven scores. That will be a lot of production to make up for Georgia State.
They are two of a whopping 13 Ga State players to hit the portal. Included are right tackle Montavious Cunningham (Virginia Tech) and cornerback Bryquice Brown (Boston College). One who stuck around is quarterback Darren Grainger, who threw for 2,368 yards with 17 touchdowns while adding 625 yards and eight scores on the ground.
"This is an opportunity for our football team to finish the season the right way," said Panthers coach Shawn Elliott.
--Field Level Media
E.Michigan +17.5 over So. Alabama. 10 units
EM faced 4 bowlers. All road games. Three 3 (Toledo, Minnesota and NIU) that were better than SA. (This is a home game for So.Alabama).
Northwestern +7 over Utah. 10 units.
NW ML+210. 2 units
Utah was outscored vs Bowler teams by 11 pts per game.
If NW does anything well, is creating Turnovers. They grabbed 9 in their last 3 games and won all 3 SU!
.That could be the difference in winning or losing today.
Tuesday. 9PM
Kansas -7.5 over UNLV. 5 units
Kansas played 3 ranked teams and lost to Texas 40-14 but stayed in 2 games with Oklahoma and Okie State.
UNLV isnt in that group and faced a far weaker schedule.
They did play Michigan and lost 35-7 at Michigan, but the Wolverines coasted in that game.
Michigan was up 35-0 in the 3rd qtr. UNLV was gifted a TD in the 4th against backups.
UNLV is negative in several categories vs Bowlers.
Kansas owns the ground game and even without the starting QB, they should win this,
Kansas -7.5 over UNLV. 5 units
Kansas played 3 ranked teams and lost to Texas 40-14 but stayed in 2 games with Oklahoma and Okie State.
UNLV isnt in that group and faced a far weaker schedule.
They did play Michigan and lost 35-7 at Michigan, but the Wolverines coasted in that game.
Michigan was up 35-0 in the 3rd qtr. UNLV was gifted a TD in the 4th against backups.
UNLV is negative in several categories vs Bowlers.
Kansas owns the ground game and even without the starting QB, they should win this,
