Nine for nine: Surprise starters cashing for MLB bettors
After Thursday night's near-perfect game Colby Lewis is +$923 when it comes to starters money.
On June 8, highly-touted 24-year-old pitching prospect Jameson Taillon made his Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates in what eventually hit the box scores as a 6-5 loss to the defending National League Champion New York Mets. In that defeat, the 6-5, 240-pound righty from Lakeland, Florida surrendered just three earned runs through six credible innings of work. For all his efforts, Taillon was sent back down to the minors.
That’s not to say the Pirates weren’t impressed, because they most certainly were. There just wasn’t enough space on the 25-man roster to retain their bright young pitching star. But Taillon was called up again this past week when ace Gerrit Cole went on the disabled list with a right triceps strain and this time around he dazzled to the tune of 8.0 innings of work with just two hits and zero runs surrendered in a 4-0 win over that same New York Mets club.
The point of the story here is that the Pirates aren’t the only club in Major League Baseball that will be calling up highly-regarded pitching prospects over the next few months. In fact, several clubs will want to take a good, long look at what they have in their respective farm systems. The key, however, is to identify which of these pitchers will be able to deliver the goods at a great betting price night in and night out. But before we take a look at the prospects who could make some waves in the near future, let’s analyze nine surprising pitchers who have turned a sizeable profit through the first three months of the 2016 MLB season.
Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (2.87 ERA)
Decisions: 9-1, +$883
Overall: 12-2, +$1,065
Analysis: The Orioles have emerged victorious in ten of Tillman’s last 11 starts, with the eight-year veteran surrendering two or fewer earned runs eight times during that stretch. Tillman boasts a diverse four-pitch arsenal (four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, knuckle-curve) that devastated the Red Sox for seven full innings on June 14 (5 hits, 1 earned run, 7 Ks) en route to a 3-2 Orioles victory despite entering the game as +176 underdogs. Take note, however, that the 6-5, 200-pound righty has been listed as a favorite in eight of his last nine trips to the bump.
Next start: Sunday, June 19 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Colby Lewis, RHP, Texas Rangers (2.81 ERA)
Decisions: 6-0, +$821
Overall: 10-4, +$923
Analysis: Despite pitching for the A.L. West-leading Texas Rangers, Lewis has taken the mound as an underdog in six of his last seven starts, delivering a tremendous return on investment in the process. His latest gem came in the form of a complete game, two-hit masterpiece in Oakland on Thursday where the 36-year-old took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before surrendering a lone run in a 5-1 Texas victory. After losing back-to-back Lewis starts on May 4 and May 9, the Rangers have since rattled off seven straight wins with Lewis leading the charge, a stretch that has seen the pitcher lower his ERA from 3.20 to 2.81.
Next start: Tuesday, June 21 vs. Cincinnati Reds
Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers (2.52 ERA)
Decisions: 7-1, +$710
Overall: 8-1, +$860
Analysis: Since surrendering five runs on ten hits in a 9-4 loss at Cleveland on May 5, Fulmer has won six straight decisions while dropping his ERA from a lofty 6.30 to 2.52. More recently, the 23-year-old from Oklahoma City has rattled off a four-start stretch that has featured four wins, 27.1 innings pitched, nine hits and a staggering zero total earned runs. Give a large portion of the credit for that run to Fulmer’s incendiary fastball, the four-seam variety of which averages 94.4 mph with a complementary two-seamer that sits at 94.9 mph.
Next start: Friday, June 17 at Kansas City Royals
Josh Tomlin, RHP, Cleveland Indians (3.27 ERA)
Decisions: 8-1, +$707
Overall: 10-2, +$805
Analysis: Tomlin has allowed more than two earned runs in an outing just four times in 12 starts this season and only once over his last six trips to the hill, which has been intriguing to most observers considering the Cleveland staff features three starters in Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar who were expected to dominate the headlines in 2016. Another big plus here is the fact that despite all his early-season success, Tomlin has still been listed as an underdog in three of his last five starts, a trend we expect to see shift in the very near future.
Next start: Monday, June 20 vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (3.38 ERA)
Decisions: 6-1, +$486
Overall: 8-5, +$151
Analysis: Yes, Sanchez has turned a very respectable profit in his seven decisions this season, but bettors need to be advised that the 23-year-old has been the benefactor of elite run support through the first three months of the 2016 MLB campaign, with the Blue Jays scoring seven or more runs in five of Sanchez’s last six starts. Granted, the 6-4, 220-pound righty has limited the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine outings, but that explosive Toronto lineup is a big reason why Sanchez has been listed as a favorite of -140 or higher in four of his last six trips to the bump.
Next start: Friday, June 17 at Baltimore Orioles
Rich Hill, LHP, Oakland A’s (2.25 ERA)
Decisions: 8-3, +$480
Overall: 8-3, +$480
Analysis: Acquired on a one-year, $6 million free agent contract this past winter, Hill may go down as the best value signing of the offseason…and in classic Billy Beane/Oakland Athletics fashion, will likely be flipped at the trade deadline for prospects. The 36-year-old southpaw has enjoyed quite the renaissance in 2016 thanks to a devastating curveball that features more than eight inches of both horizontal and vertical movement. The downside here, however, is the fact that Hill is currently on the disabled list due to a groin injury and won’t resume throwing off a mound until next week at the earliest.
Next start: TBD
Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Colorado Rockies (2.89 ERA)
Decisions: 8-4, +$434
Overall: 9-4, +$534
Analysis: Prior to the start of the season, many industry insiders considered the Rockies to be nothing more than a 70-win team at best. Yet, here we are on June 17 and Colorado resides at just one game under .500 thanks, in part, to the efforts of Chatwood, who has surrendered a grand total of just 12 earned runs over his last seven starts, with the 26-year-old winning four of his last five decisions. Credit a nasty two-seam fastball for the five-year veteran’s success, as Chatwood currently ranks first in the National League in ground ball percentage at 58.7 percent. Like they say, if the ball is on the ground, it can’t leave the yard.
Next start: Saturday, June 18 at Miami Marlins
Steven Wright, RHP, Boston Red Sox (2.22 ERA)
Decisions: 8-4, +$418
Overall: 8-5, +$289
Analysis: Wright has emerged victorious in each of his last five starts while permitting two or fewer earned runs in four of those aforementioned outings. But perhaps what is more impressive is that the 31-year-old’s knuckleball has induced at least 12 ground ball outs in three of his last four trips to the hill after the four-year veteran notched just one such effort through his first nine starts of the season. Wright is coming on strong and bettors would be wise to take notice.
Next start: Monday, June 20 vs. Chicago White Sox
Christian Friedrich, LHP, San Diego Padres (2.12 ERA)
Decisions: 3-1, +$268
Overall: 4-2, +$301
Analysis: True to form, the Padres are a dumpster fire, with two of their best pitchers (Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross) on the disabled list unable to spray any additional gasoline on the fire. But almost too quietly, Friedrich joined the rotation in mid-May and has since proven to serve as a glimmer of hope, with six total starts featuring three or fewer earned runs surrendered. Not only that, but the 28-year-old lefty has allowed only one home run on 603 total pitches this season. The best part here? Friedrich has been listed as an underdog in five of six starts since joining the rotation.
Next start: Friday, June 17 vs. Washington Nationals.
