Friday 6/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers

Hottest team: Rockies (8-2 last 10)

Colorado has pulled with one game of the .500 mark following a successful 5-1 homestand. The Rockies swept the Yankees in a two-game series at Coors Field, while plating 19 runs in the two victories. Colorado embarks on a six-game road trip to Miami and New York looking for its second five-game winning streak of the season. However, the Rockies have slumped to a 4-8 mark in its previous 12 opportunities as a road underdog, while dropping three of four visits to Marlins Park last season.

Coldest team: Athletics (2-10 last 12)

Since sweeping the Twins at home to begin June, Oakland has fallen apart recently. The A’s were swept at Houston and Milwaukee, while salvaging the final game at Cincinnati to avoid an 0-8 road swing. Following a blowout of Texas in its first contest back from the road trip, the A’s lost three consecutive games to the Rangers, including squandering a 5-0 lead in Wednesday’s 7-5 setback. The A’s host the Angels for a weekend series, as Los Angeles swept Oakland back in April with the A’s scoring one run in two of the losses.

Hottest pitcher: Michael Fulmer, Tigers (7-1, 2.52 ERA)

Past Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Verlander, Detroit has found a right-hander that is nearly an automatic win every time he hits the mound. Fulmer hasn’t allowed a run in his last four starts, while giving up a total of nine hits in this span. Detroit is 8-1 in Fulmer’s nine starts this season, including a 6-1 mark away from Comerica Park. Each of Fulmer’s past three road starts have finished ‘under’ the total, while four of the six away wins with him on the mound have come by three runs or more.

Coldest pitcher: Jose Quintana, White Sox (5-7, 2.66 ERA)

Chicago won six of Quintana’s first seven starts this season, but the Sox are winless in the southpaw’s last six trips to the mound. Quintana has put together four quality starts during this 0-6 run, while the Sox offense has scored two runs or less in five of those defeats. The Sox are riding an incredible 12-0 run to the ‘under’ in Quintana’s last 12 starts, which includes a 4-3 loss to Cleveland on May 25 on a 7 ½ total. Last season, Quintana dominated the Indians at Progressive Field with a 2-0 mark which included a shutout of the Tribe on July 24.

Biggest UNDER run: Astros (8-0 last eight)

Houston’s pitching stepped up in a two-game road sweep of red-hot St. Louis by allowing just three runs. The Astros cashed the ‘under’ in the final eight contests of their nine-game road swing, including a trio of ‘unders’ with totals of 7 ½ at Tampa Bay. Right-hander Lance McCullers continues to hit the ‘under’ for the Astros, as four of his past five starts have finished below the post total. Houston is currently on a 7-4 run to the ‘under’ in the last 11 games at Minute Maid Park.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (5-2 last seven)

Texas came within three outs of a no-hitter on Thursday at Oakland, cashing the first ‘under’ of its four-game series against the Athletics. The Rangers have eclipsed the ‘over’ in nine of the past 11 games played away from Arlington, as Texas begins a three-game series at St. Louis. In six of seven contests on their current road swing, the Rangers have scored at least five runs. Texas finished ‘under’ the total in six of its first seven road series openers this season, but the ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive away Game 1’s.

Matchup to watch: Blue Jays vs. Orioles

These two AL East rivals are meeting up for the second time in a week as Toronto grabbed three of four matchups at home last weekend. The Blue Jays are heating up at the right time by winning six of the past seven games, coming off a 3-1 series against the reeling Phillies. The Orioles managed a series victory at Boston to sit in first place of the AL East all by themselves, capping things off with a 5-1 triumph on Thursday. Orioles’ right-hander Mike Wright picked up a no-decision the last time he faced the Blue Jays by allowing four earned runs in five innings of an 11-6 setback. Baltimore has won four of Wright’s last five home outings, while the O’s are 7-1 in the past eight contests at Camden Yards.

Betcha didn’t know: The Mariners head to Fenway Park to face the Red Sox for the first time this season. When these teams hooked up in Boston last August, they combined for 16, 32, and 18 runs in a three-game set. The Red Sox plated 15 and 22 runs in their two victories, as the last six meetings in Boston have sailed ‘over’ the total.

Biggest public favorite: Mets (-260) vs. Braves

Biggest public underdog: Giants (+105) at Rays

Biggest line move: Angels (-115 to -135) at Athletics

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday, June 17, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Need a shortstop for the rest of the season? Former All-Star Jose Reyes is on the market. To no surprise, the Colorado Rockies designated Reyes for assignment on Wednesday. With how well rookie shortstop Trevor Story was playing and the fact that Reyes recently finished serving his 51-game suspension for violating MLB's domestic violence policy, there was no way the Rockies were going to put Reyes on the big-league roster. There was also no way the Rockies were going to be able to trade Reyes considering he has about $40 million still owed to him. Thus, Reyes is obviously going to clear waivers and become a free agent. I can maybe see a few teams interested in signing Reyes despite a bit of a PR hit. Apparently one of Reyes' former teams, the Mets, won't be one of them, however. I think Reyes would be an upgrade on Ketel Marte for the Mariners, and they are in contention in the AL West. Perhaps the Diamondbacks would take a shot. I also think Reyes would be better than Danny Espinosa for Washington, but the Nats also have top prospect Trea Turner waiting in the wings there. Reyes might have to wait until a team suffers a key injury at shortstop or even second base.


Pirates at Cubs (-290, TBA)

The lone matinee of the day with a 2:20 p.m. ET start and televised nationally by the MLB Network and thus will have live betting at sportsbooks. The Cubs have won five of six meetings with the Pirates this season. It should be six of seven by Friday evening as Chicago starts ace Jake Arrieta (10-1, 1.86). He ended a two-start losing streak (one personally) with a victory in Atlanta on Saturday, allowing two runs and four hits over seven innings. Arrieta is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Pirates this season. He has allowed only five hits in 15 innings. Matt Joyce hits him well, if he plays, going 7-for-17 with a homer and four RBIs. Andrew McCutchen is a career .310 hitter with nine strikeouts in 29 at-bats off Arrieta. Gregory Polanco is just 4-for-22 with seven strikeouts. The Bucs go with lefty Francisco Liriano (4-6, 4.92). He lost a third straight Saturday, allowing four runs (one earned) over six innings vs. the Cardinals. Liriano's worst start of the year was May 13 at Wrigley, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings.

Key trends: The Pirates are 1-6 in their past seven vs. a right-hander. The Cubs are 10-2 in Arrieta's past 12 at home. They are 6-0 in his past six vs. Pittsburgh. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Arrieta's past nine in the series.

Early lean: Cubs.

Rockies at Marlins (-116, 8.5)

Double bummer if you are a Marlins fan living in South Florida and had tickets to this game. First off, Ichiro Suzuki on Wednesday broke Pete Rose's record of 4,257 professional hits. I honestly didn't think he'd get enough at-bats on that road trip to break the mark before returning home. Secondly, Marlins fans won't get to see ace Jose Fernandez here as the team is skipping his start to conserve innings. The Marlins go with lefty Adam Conley (3-4, 4.13). He is winless since May 16 and is 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA since. Conley was roughed up for six runs and a career-high 11 hits over five innings Sunday in Arizona. He has never faced Colorado. The Rockies go with Jon Gray (4-2, 4.70). He is starting to live up to the expectations of being the No. 3 overall pick a few years ago as Gray hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts. He has never faced the Marlins.

Key trends: The Rockies are 5-1 in their past six after an off day. They are 2-7 in Gray's past nine series openers. The Marlins are 1-6 in their past seven after an off day. The over is 4-0-1 in Gray's past five.

Early lean: Rockies and over.

Mariners at Red Sox (-133, 9.5)

In December, the Boston Red Sox traded starting pitcher Wade Miley to Seattle for reliever Carson Smith and swingman Roenis Elias. That move has looked like a bust thus far for the Sox as Smith barely pitched this year before needing Tommy John surgery. Elias has made just one big-league appearance in 2016, allowing three runs in 1.2 innings on April 23 in Houston. But he will be called up from Triple-A to start here as the Sox are short a No. 5 starter at the moment. Elias has been pitching well with Pawtucket. He has never faced his former teammates. Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma (5-5, 4.10) has won four of his past five outings. He beat Texas last Friday, allowing three runs in seven innings -- his fourth straight start of seven innings. Iwakuma is 0-1 with a 10.20 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. David Ortiz is 4-for-8 off him with two homers.

Key trends: The Mariners are 11-4 in Iwakuma's past 15 on the road. The Sox are 1-5 in their past six on Friday. The over is 10-3 in Iwakuma's past 13 in Game 1 of a series.

Early lean: Mariners and over.

Tigers at Royals (-102, 8)

Where would Detroit be without Michael Fulmer? The 23-year-old, acquired last July from the Mets for Yoenis Cespedes, has to be a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. Fulmer (7-1, 2.52) hasn't allowed a run in his past four starts, and he and the Cubs' Arrieta are the only pitchers in the modern era with four straight starts allowing no runs and three or fewer hits. Fulmer is the only one to do it in the same season. Overall, Fulmer has thrown 28.1 scoreless innings, putting him just 12.2 shy of the rookie record Grover Cleveland Alexander set in 1911. It's the longest by a Tigers rookie since John Hiller had a 28 2/3-inning streak in 1967. Can you imagine if the Mets had Fulmer on that already-stellar staff? But that Cespedes trade has worked out well for both teams. Fulmer has never faced the Royals. Kansas City goes with hot-head Yordano Ventura (5-4, 4.93), who continues to pitch while appealing his nine-game suspension. Ventura dominated the White Sox on Sunday, allowing one run and striking out 10 in seven innings. He beat the Tigers on April 19, giving up two runs in five innings. Victor Martinez is 4-for-16 off him with two homers and five RBIs.

Key trends: The Tigers are 6-14 in their past 20 on Friday. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's past six at home vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Ventura's past six vs. Detroit.

Early lean: Royals and under.

Rangers at Cardinals (+103, 8)

This also will be televised by the MLB Network and have live betting at sportsbooks. Not impossible this could be a World Series preview, and these clubs played one of the best Fall Classics against one another in 2011, with the Cardinals winning in seven. The Rangers will lose the DH, which means either Mitch Moreland or Prince Fielder takes a seat. Texas starts ace lefty Cole Hamels (6-1, 3.14). He won in Seattle on Sunday, allowing one run and four hits in his third straight outing of seven innings. Hamels was a long-time Phillie, so plenty of Cardinals have seen him. Matt Holliday is 4-for-13 with a double and two RBIs. Yadier Molina hits .240 off him with five RBIs in 25 at-bats. Jhonny Peralta is 4-for-11 with three doubles. St. Louis goes with Michael Wacha (2-6, 4.91). He finally had a quality start on Friday in Pittsburgh, allowing two runs and three hits over seven innings but didn't get a decision. Wacha hasn't faced the Rangers.

Key trends: The Rangers are 9-3 in Hamels' past 12 on the road. The Cards are 4-11 in Wacha's past 15 vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 9-1-1 in Hamels' past 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Rangers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Betting Big Favorites'

It's a common held belief that betting big favorites in baseball can turn out to be extremely costly over the long haul, especially favorites of -$200 or more. Many baseball bettors have this theory ingrained in their heads and usually bypass those games when looking at the schedule. Being old school, must confess to being amoung them, untill a recent study revealed surprising results.

Between 2010 and 2015, betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or greater resulted in a 71.3% win rate (697-281) but more importanly yielded a +$4619 profit for a 4.7% return on investment. If the big favorite was off a loss, they were 206-85 in their next game good for $1,606 in profit, 5.5% return on money risked.

Obviously, wildly betting each and every favorite of -$200 or more demands a huge investment in order to ride the ups/downs that occur through out a season. That in mind, focusing on fewer plays to consider with less total money at risk was in order. To that end, the analysis revealed the best strategy was to concentrate strickly on a big road favorites. In this case, the road favorites won at a 75.9% clip stuffing +$1921 into betting accounts for an enourmous 23.1% return on investment.

So much for history, but what about the current 2016 campaign. Well, heading into Tuesday June 15th action the trend is alive and well. Betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or more has returned 12.2% on money risked (+$921) split between +$542 for homies (44-17), +$379 for teams wearing road jersey's (10-3). Once again, focusing sticking on road favorites produced a whopping 29.2% return.

While there's no guarantee big favorites will continue to perform the rest of the way, it's something that bettors can't afford to overlook down the stretch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'A.L. East rivals clash'

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles June 17, 7:05 EST

Baltimore and Toronto play a crucial three-game series at Camden Yards this weekend with top spot in the East at stake. The bettings odds have Blue Jays -$1.40 road favorites with the total set at 9 runs.

A.L. East leading Orioles looking to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division open the set with Mike Wright on the hill. In his last start, Wright, tagged with a no-decision in Orioles 11-6 loss vs. Toronto allowed four earned run on six hits while walking five in five-plus innings. Orioles are now 0-4 vs Blue Jays handing the ball to Wright.

The Blue Jays two games back hoping to inch closer will counter with Aaron Sanchez who struggled his last time out against the O's allowing six runs, four home runs, but he was picked up by the Blue Jays' offense in a 10-9 victory. Jays are 2-2 in Sanchez's four career starts vs O's.

Division games are always tough, taking the road team can be risky. However, Blue Jays finding their stroke winning six of seven, platting 56 runs behind 83 hits, 18 long-ball are worth a look. Keep in mind, Jays have enjoyed success lately vs the division with Sanchez (5-0), the Orioles not so much with Wright (2-6). Additionally, Jays are in the midst of a hot 16-6 spurt, 12-3 streak against the A.L. East, 7-2 stretch handing Sanchez starting duties.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Friday's games

National League games

Pirates @ Cubs
Liriano is 0-3, 5.87 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. .

Arrieta is 1-1, 2.37 in his last three starts (over 11-2).

Pirates lost 12 of their last 16 games; six of their last eight games went over. Pittsburgh is 8-4 in road series openers. Chicago won eight of last ten home games; they're 9-1 in home series openers. Six of last seven Wrigley games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Ray is 1-3, 4.94 in his last five starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.

Morgan is 0-5, 7.52 in his last six starts, five of which went over.

Arizona lost six of last eight road games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Phillies are 1-7 in last eight games; they're 2-9 in home series openers. Seven of last eight Philly home games went over the total.

Rockies @ Marlins
Gray is 3-0, 3.29 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five.

Conley is 0-2, 5.60 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Rockies won six of last seven games; they're 7-4 in road series openers. Five of their last six road games stayed under. Miami is 5-7 in its last 12 games, 5-6 in road series openers. Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Braves @ Mets
Gant allowed three runs in 4.1 IP (88 PT) in his first MLB start.

Harvey is 1-1, 0.90 in his last three starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Braves lost six of last seven road games; they're 2-8 in road series openers. Six of last eight Atlanta road games stayed under. New York is 5-3 in its last eight games, 8-2 in home series openers; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Nationals @ Padres
Ross is 2-0, 3.60 in his last four starts (under 8-3-1). .

Friedrich is 3-0, 2.55 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Padres lost six of their last eight games; four of their last six home games went under total. Washington won nine of last 11 games; seven of their last eight road games went over the total.

Brewers @ Dodgers
Davies is 4-0, 2.70 in his last four starts; all three of his road starts went over.

Urias is 0-2, 6.35 in four starts this year (over 2-2).

Milwaukee lost five of last seven road games; six of its last seven road games went over the total. Dodgers won eight of last 11 at home; six of their last eight home games went under the total.


American League games

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Sanchez is 3-0, 3.78 in his last five starts (under 9-4).

Wright is 1-1, 6.57 in his last five starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Toronto won seven of last nine games; they're 8-3 in road series openers. Six of their last eight games went over. Orioles won seven of last eight home games; they're 7-4 in home series openers. Over is 9-6 in their last fifteen games.

White Sox @ Indians
Quintana is 0-6, 4.15 in his last six starta; his last 12 starts all stayed under the total. White Sox scored total of 19 runs in his last 17 losses.

Bauer is 1-0, 2.78 in his last three starts; five of his last seven stayed under.

White Sox lost nine of last 11 road games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Over is 17-5 in their last 22 road games. Cleveland just got swept in KC but they've won last five home games. Royals are 6-4 in home series openers. Under is 8-3-2 in their last thirteen games.

Mariners @ Red Sox
Iwakuma is 4-1, 4.24 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.

Former Mariner Elias is 15-20, 4.04 in 49 MLB starts; this is his first '16 start. He is 4-3, 3.54 in nine AAA starts this year.

Mariners lost five of last six road games; they're 6-5 in road series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Boston lost five of last seven home games; they're 6-5 in home series openers. Over is 14-6 in their last 20 home games.

Tigers @ Royals
Fulmer is 5-0, 0.25 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under. He has a 28.1 inning scoreless streak right now.

Ventura is 1-2, 5.64 in his last five starts; six of his last eight starts went over. .

Tigers won eight of their last 12 games; nine of its last 12 road games stayed under. Royals won nine of last ten home games; under is 7-4-1 in KC's last 12 games.

Bronx @ Twins
Tanaka is 0-2, 4.19 in his last three starts; his last five starts stayed under. .

Dean is 0-1, 6.32 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

New York lost seven of last ten road games; four of their last six road games went over the total. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 home games.

Angels @ A's
Shoemaker is 1-2, 1.88 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under. .

Graveman is 1-5, 6.70 in his last nine starts; four of his last six stayed under.

A's lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 3-1 in their last four home games. Oakland is 4-6 in home series openers. Angels lost seven of last nine road games; they're 6-4 in openers of a road series. Over is 10-2-1 in their last thirteen games.


Interleague

Giants @ Rays
Samardzija is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over.

Archer is 1-4, 6.16 in his last five starts; five of his last seven starts went over.

Giants won their last five games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Six of last nine SF road games went over. Tampa Bay won nine of last 12 games; they're 4-7 in 11 home openers. Under is 21-9 in Rays' last 30 home games.

Reds @ Astros
Lamb is 1-4, 7.03 in his last six starts (under 4-3-1).

McCullers is 3-1, 3.91 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Cincinnati is 10-7 in its last 17 games, 2-8 in road series openers. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Astros won three of last four games; they're 6-4 in home series openers. Last eight Houston games stayed under the total.

Rangers @ Cardinals
Hamels is 1-0, 2.57 in his last three starts; six of his last seven went over.

Wacha is 1-5, 8.25 in his last eight starts; his last seven starts went over.

Rangers are 19-6 in their last 25 games; nine of their last 11 road tilts went over. Texas is 5-5 in road series openers. Cardinals lost five of last seven home games; they're 4-7 in home series openers. Over is 7-4-1 in their last twelve home games.


Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:

Pitt-Chi-- Liriano 6-6; Arrieta 11-2
Az-Phil-- Ray 4-9; Morgan 2-7
Col-Mia-- Gray 5-5; Conley 6-7
Atl-NY-- Gant 0-1; Harvey 5-8
Mil-LA-- Davies 6-5; Urias 1-3
Wsh-SD-- Ross 8-4; Friedrich 4-2

Tor-Balt-- Sanchez 8-5; Wright 7-4
Chi-Clev-- Quintana 6-7 (0-6 last 6); Bauer 4-5
Sea-Bos-- Iwakuma 7-6; Elias 0-0
NY-Min-- Tanaka 8-5; Dean 4-1
Det-KC-- Fulmer 8-1; Ventura 8-5
LA-A's-- Shoemaker 4-8; Graveman 3-9

SF-TB-- Samardzija 8-5; Archer 5-9
Cin-Hst-- Lamb 2-6; McCullers 4-2
Tex-StL-- Hamels 9-4; Wacha 6-7


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

Pitt-Chi-- Liriano 3-12; Arrieta 1-13
Az-Phil-- Ray 1-13; Morgan 4-9 (4 of last 4)
Col-Mia-- Gray 4-10; Conley 5-13
Atl-NY-- Gant 1-1; Harvey 3-13
Mil-LA-- Davies 3-11; Urias 1-4
Wsh-SD-- Ross 2-12; Friedrich 3-6

Tor-Balt-- Sanchez 2-13; Wright 2-11
Chi-Clev-- Quintana 1-13; Bauer 3-9
Sea-Bos-- Iwakuma 2-13; Elias 0-0
NY-Min-- Tanaka 2-13; Dean 2-5
Det-KC-- Fulmer 2-9; Ventura 4-13
LA-A's-- Shoemaker 3-12; Graveman 3-12

SF-TB-- Samardzija 2-13; Archer 6-14
Cin-Hst-- Lamb 4-8; McCullers 3-6 (3 of last 3)
Tex-StL-- Hamels 3-13; Wacha 4-13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
Play On - Any team (HOUSTON) terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL)
50-24 since 1997. ( 67.6% | 27.4 units )
4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | -3.1 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 80-38 (+32.9 Units) against the money line in Home games in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.7)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's six-pack

-- Cavaliers 115, Warriors 101-- First time since 1966 that a team down 3-1 in Finals forced a Game 7.

-- Last time a road team won Game 7 in NBA Fials; Washington Bullets at Seattle Supersonics, way back in 1978.

-- 12 different American Presidents have been in office since Vin Scully has been calling Dodger games.

-- Tigers 10, Royals 4-- Victor Martinez missed last three games with a bad knee, but hit three solo home runs in this game.

-- Whit Merrifield has scored in Royals' last ten home games.

-- A's AAA farm team in Nashville drew10,092 fans Thursday night; no way the A's drew that many fans for their listless loss to Texas Thursday afternoon. Announced crowd was 14,236, which is science fiction.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

MARINERS (Iwakuma) @ RED SOX (Elias) 7:10 PM

Take: RED SOX -120

It’s the opener of a weekend set at Fenway Park between the Mariners and Red Sox, and I’m jumping in on the Friday night hookup. Here’s what I’m keying on in tonight’s battle.

Seattle righty Hisashi Iwakuma has steadied somewhat lately, but he really isn’t pitching at his past performance level. I don’t think he’s anything more than a middle of the rotation guy at this point, although he will get by thanks to rarely beating himself with walks. A quick look at Iwakuma’s history vs. the Red Sox offers some ugly numbers, though I don’t really put much into that as that data was accrued mostly against guys he won’t be seeing tonight. Nevertheless, let’s just say that facing Boston hasn’t been a good thing for Iwakuma previously.

Roenis Elias has been called up by Boston and gets to face his former team, which I don’t mind as he figures to be very fired up. Elias has been red hot at Pawtucket lately. Last five starts, 36 innings with a 2.00 ERA, but what’s eye opening is the 8/40 BB/K in that stretch. The key is a revised arm slot and a slower delivery that he’s worked on with Bob Kipper, the pitching coach at Pawtucket. The Red Sox need a #5 starter, and this is the chance for Elias to grab that spot. So if you’re a fan of isolating a little in the way of extra incentive, there’s plenty of it in the Elias column tonight.

The Mariners bullpen was seriously extended in the Tampa series, and I would suspect that neither Joaquin Benoit or Steve Cishek will be available here. So there figures to be an enormous late inning edge for the Red Sox. Given how vital relievers have been to so many results this season, I see the potential fatigue for the Seattle pen being a liability here.

It’s entirely possible that Elias will end up being the latest failure at the back end of the Boston rotation. Clay Buchholz couldn’t get it done, Joe Kelly couldn’t get it done, Henry Owens couldn’t get it done. I’m not convinced Roenis Elias is the long term answer either. No matter how much the Red Sox want to avoid having to deal a prospect or two for a reliable arm as they drive for a playoff spot, I suspect they’re going to have to bite the bullet at some point and make a trade. But for one night at least, I like the concept of taking the very motivated southpaw Elias in what amounts to a big time audition. I have no problem at all with the price, so the Red Sox are on my card tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: Fri WhiteSox w/Quintana+110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -260

The Cubs are 15.3 off a loss and they fit a solid system that is 35-9 since 2004 ths plays on certain home favorites off a road loss vs an opponent like Pittsburgh also off a road loss. The pirates have lost 7 of the last 8 and are 8-42 long term as a road dig of +225 or higher. The Cubs have won 3 of the last 4 here in the series and have Arietta on the mound and he is 11-1 with a 1.41 era vs the Pirates. Liriano is on the mound for the Pirates and he allowed 8 runs here earlier in the year in 4 innings and has a dismal 7.09 road era this season. Look for the Cubs to take this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 8

American League Central rivals Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians will open a three-game set Friday night. I think runs will come at a premium with two hot pitchers on the mound.

Trevor Bauer (4-2, 3.69) will take the ball for Cleveland. He has posted a 1.72 ERA with 13 strikeouts and two walks in his last two starts, both on the road. Bauer has a 4.75 ERA in seven appearances at Progressive Field on the season, but I think he'll put up a strong performance tonight as he has a solid .213 batting average against over 127 at bats versus the current White Sox team.

The White Sox turn to Jose Quintana (5-7, 2.66 ERA). The White Sox have lost each of his last six starts despite solid pitching from the left-hander, and they've scored just an average of just 2.76 runs in Quintana's 13 starts on the season. Quintana recorded eight strikeouts while conceding three runs on five hits in six innings of 4-3 home loss against Cleveland on May 25. He is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 15 career appearances (13 starts) vs. the Tribe.

Under is 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts vs. White Sox, Under is 5-0 in Quintana's last five starts vs. Indians. Look for this game to go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Los Angeles at Oakland
Play: Los Angeles -134

The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels have won 11 of the last 14 American League West titles but the challenge this season is to avoid a last place finish in the division. Tonight the two longtime rivals open a three-game series in the Bay Area where the Angels and Matt Shoemaker (-134) are favored over Kendall Graveman and the A’s. The total is set at eight. First pitch is set for 9:35 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum.

The fourth-place Angels (29-37, 28-38 RL) have won two straight but have lost seven of their last 10. They have a two game lead over the Athletics (27-39, 33-33 RL) heading into the weekend set. The two teams haven’t met since mid-April when the Halos swept a three-game series in Oakland.

The A's dropped three of four against Texas to begin the week and have lost 10 of 12 overall, nearly getting no-hit by Rangers' right-hander Colby Lewis in Thursday's 5-1 loss. Oakland has been held to one or zero runs in half of its last eight contests and enters the series batting .244 at home on the season. Angels starter Matt Shoemaker, who has been dominant over a five-start stretch, will hope to take advantage as he opposes fellow righty Kendall Graveman.

Shoemaker (3-7, 4.76 ERA) has been dominant over a five-start stretch. He held Cleveland to three hits and struck out 11 in eight scoreless frames his last time out. He has a 1.88 ERA during his five-start surge striking out 48 and walking one in 38.1 innings. Graveman (2-6, 5.28 ERA) has failed to finish five innings in three of his last four starts but does own a 3.38 ERA in five home starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jesse Schule

San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: San Francisco Giants +110

The Giants are way out in front in the NL West, and they will be an underdog in Tampa, facing the last place team in the AL East. The Rays are one of the weakest offensive teams in the majors, and with their leader Evan Longoria battling injury, I don't think they have any business being favored here. Longoria leads the team in home runs, RBIs as well as batting average, and he sat out last night with arm soreness. Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for San Fran, and he's having a solid season in his first year with the Giants. Samardzija (7-4, 3.36 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers his last time out. He's been great under the lights, going 6-2 with a 2.51 ERA in night games in 2016. The Rays will counter with ace Chris Archer, who hasn't lived up to expectations this season. Archer (4-8, 4.61 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 4-3 home loss to Houston his last time out. The Giants roughed him up in the only previous meeting, and Brandon Belt was 3-for-3 with a home run in that game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: Washington

The Padres sit dead last in the NL West, and they've lost five of their last six overall. The Nats took Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-5, and I see no reason not to jump right back on Washington in Game 2. The Nationals are on a roll, coming into tonight's game as winners of six of their last seven.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats will turn to Joe Ross, who has won four straight. Ross (5-4, 3.01 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits, fanning eight in seven innings in a 5-4 win over the Phillies in his last start. His ERA on the road is more than 1 run lower than it is at home (3-2, 2.51).

2. San Diego's Bullpen - The Padres relief pitchers have posted an ERA of 4.68 so far this season. The only two teams that rank worse are Cincinnati and Texas, and at least they have the excuse of pitching in a hitter's park.

3. X-Factor - The Nationals are 8-1 in their last nine road games versus a left-handed starter, while the Padres are 5-17 in their last 22 games versus a right-handed starter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BUSTER SPORTS

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Texas Rangers +100

The starting pitchers for tonight's game are for the Rangers LH Cole Hamels (6-1, 3.14 ERA) and he goes up against the Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (2-6, 4.91) Hamels has been pitching excellent for the Rangers every since his trade form Philadelphia last year. He has been especially good on the road. He has a 4-0 record and a 1.94 ERA with a WHIP just over 1 this year. As for the Cardinals starter Michael Wacha he has not started the year as well as his previous years. In 2014 Wacha had a yr ending ERA of 3.20 in 2015 a year ending ERA of 3.38 unfortunately most of this year his ERA has been hovering just under 5. At home it has been worse for Wacha as he has a 5.54 ERA and a WHIP of 1.487. With Texas being one of the hotter teams in baseball of late we see tremendous value here and we will take it.

Backing our selection is the fact that the Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and also the Rangers are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT SPREITZER

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Play: Detroit Tigers -111

Detroit's hitters have warmed up with the weather and after last night's 10-4 win at Kansas City, the Tigers have averaged 7.2 runs while winning four of their last six games. Victor Martinez hit three of the Tigers' six home runs as they totaled 13 hits after recording 38 hits in a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox. Michael Fulmer has been nothing short of sensational allowing one run in his last five outings covering 34 2/3 innings while allowing just 13 hits and striking out 30. The Tigers are on a 7-0 run when the right-hander toes the rubber. Yordano Ventura is 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and has had trouble putting two good starts together while still getting in trouble by starting fights. Ventura gave up one run in seven innings in a 3-1 win at the White Sox on Sunday after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Baltimore. KC has won just one of their last eight following a loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

There will be a Game 7 in the NBA Finals come Sunday in Oakland and on Saturday, the San Francisco Bay Area is buzzing due to the return of Tim Lincecum as the Angels' starter on Saturday. However, Friday night it’s the series opener between the Angels and A’s. Oakland has scheduled a fireworks show following tonight’s opener and given the recent forms of the Angels Matt Shoemaker and A's Kendall Graveman, “the show” get an early start. Shoemaker is 3-7 with a 4.76 ERA on the season with Graveman coming in 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA.

Shoemaker owns a 5.27 road ERA in five away starts in 2016 and since April 30 has allowed 14 ERs on 23 hits over 15 innings of three road outings (8.40 ERA). As for Graveman, he’s struggled no matter where he's pitched this season. He’s allowed 32 ERs on 66 hits in 43.2 innings over his last nine starts, going 0-5 with a 6.60 ERA (team is 2-7). Graveman has failed to finish five innings in three of his last four starts and will face an Angels lineup which totaled 19 runs in winning two of three from the Minnesota Twins earlier this week.

The A's were nearly no-hit by Texas Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis on Thursday afternoon (first hit came in the 9th inning) and while the team is in no danger of going hitless against Shoemaker, his recent road struggles may be coming to an end.

Shoemaker limited Cleveland to three hits and struck out 11 in eight scoreless innings his last time out and owns a 1.88 ERA during a five-start surge, striking out 48 and walking just ONE over 38.1 innings. Yes, FOUR of those five have come at home but the bet here is, Shoemaker get his act together on the road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pirates at Cubs

GAME: Pittsburgh Pirates (33-33) at Chicago Cubs (44-20)
DATE/TIME: Friday, June 17 - 2:20 PM EST
WHERE: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

If the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to climb back into the National League Central race, this weekend would be a good time to start. The fading Pirates have lost seven of their last eight heading into Friday afternoon’s series opener at Wrigley Field against the division-leading Chicago Cubs, who are 24 games above .500 and boast the league’s best home record at 22-8.

The third-place Pirates have fallen 12 games behind a Chicago team that added to its already impressive depth on Thursday with the promotion of top catching prospect Willson Contreras from Triple-A Iowa. The 24-year-old was hitting .350 with nine home runs and 43 RBI through 54 contests for Iowa and figures to share time behind the plate with veterans Miguel Montero and David Ross. The Cubs are 5-1 this season against the Pirates, who hope to have Starling Marte back in the lineup Friday after the left fielder missed Thursday’s 6-4 loss to the Mets with an injured left cheekbone. Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was moved to the third spot in the order on Thursday after hitting second for most of the season and snapped a 0-for-17 slump with three hits.

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, ROOT (Pittsburgh), ABC7 (Chicago)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (4-6, 4.92 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (10-1, 1.86)

Liriano dropped his third straight decision last Saturday after allowing four runs (one earned) and striking out eight over six frames against St. Louis. The 32-year-old has struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA in six starts. Kris Bryant is 4-for-9 with a home run against Liriano, who is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs but was pulled in the fifth inning of a loss at Wrigley Field on May 13.

Arrieta bounced back from his first loss by holding Atlanta to two runs on four hits and two walks in an 8-2 victory last Saturday. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is 8-1 with a 1.58 ERA in 11 career starts against the Pirates, including 5-1 with a 0.88 ERA in his last seven regular-season outings. Gregory Polanco is 4-for-22 with seven strikeouts against Arrieta, who also threw a complete game shutout against Pittsburgh in last season’s NL wild-card game.

WALK-OFFS

1. The Cubs have outscored the Pirates 38-13 in their six meetings this season.

2. The Pirates are the only team in the majors that has not been shut out this season.

3. Reserve C Tim Federowicz is expected to be designated for assignment by the Cubs on Friday to make room for Contreras.

PREDICTION: Cubs 9, Pirates 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Diamondbacks at Phillies

GAME: Arizona Diamondbacks (29-39) at Philadelphia Phillies (30-37)
DATE/TIME: Friday, June 17 - 7:05 PM EST
WHERE: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

The City of Brotherly Love is home to a baseball team that has showing too much love for its opponents of late. The Arizona Diamondbacks look to be the latest to take advantage of the generosity of the free-falling Philadelphia Phillies on Friday when they begin a 10-game road trip with the opener of a four-game series.

Philadelphia was on the wrong end of yet another lopsided loss with a 13-2 setback to Toronto on Thursday and has been outscored by a staggering 61-25 total en route to losing seven of its last eight and 20 of 26 overall. The Phillies' failures must be music to the ears of Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt, who has reached base in 20 straight games, hit safely in 10 consecutive contests and is batting .382 since May 27. The 28-year-old has driven in a run in each of his last five outings for the Diamondbacks, who have lost two in a row following a three-game winning streak. Arizona is a respectable 16-14 away from Chase Field while Philadelphia has only heard the jeers gain in volume at Citizens Bank Park.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, FSN Arizona, NBC-10 (Philadelphia)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (3-5, 4.57 ERA) vs. Phillies LH Adam Morgan (1-5, 6.33)

Ray recorded his first victory since May 16 in scintillating fashion on Sunday, scattering three hits - all singles - over a career high-tying 7 2/3 innings in a 6-0 rout of Miami. The 24-year-old kept the ball in the park for the first time in over a month to snap a four-start winless stretch. Ray struck out six versus the Marlins, marking the sixth time in seven outings that he has fanned at least that many.

Despite setting a season high with eight strikeouts on Sunday, Morgan saw his winless stretch extend to six outings with a no-decision versus Washington. The 26-year-old is 0-5 since posting his lone victory of the season on May 10, surrendering eight homers in his last six starts. Morgan will be making his 25th career start and first versus Arizona.

WALK-OFFS

1. Arizona SS Jean Segura has collected 12 hits and five runs scored in his last seven games.

2. Philadelphia SS Freddy Galvis is 5-for-57 in his last 15 contests.

3. Diamondbacks LF Brandon Drury is 1-for-15 with six strikeouts in his last five outings.

PREDICTION: Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blue Jays at Orioles

GAME: Toronto Blue Jays (38-31) at Baltimore Orioles (38-27)
DATE/TIME: Friday, June 17 - 7:05 PM EST
WHERE: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

After winning a showdown with Boston for first place in the American League East, the Baltimore Orioles must prepare for a visit from the hard-charging Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. The Blue Jays have won three in a row and six of seven, including the final three contests of a four-game set against the Orioles last week in Toronto.

The Blue Jays scored 30 runs against Baltimore a week ago and amassed 31 in taking the final three games of a home-and-home series against Philadelphia. Edwin Encarnacion is on a tear with six home runs, 14 RBIs and 12 runs scored during a six-game hitting streak while Josh Donaldson (9-for-14 versus the Phillies) has posted a nine-game string to help Toronto pull within two games of the division lead. Baltimore's Adam Jones homered each of the last two nights and has recorded four blasts and eight RBIs during his five-game hitting streak. Manny Machado, who notched three hits on Thursday, is 13-for-31 in seven games against the Blue Jays this season.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, Sportsnet, TVA (Toronto), MASN (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Aarón Sánchez (6-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Mike Wright (3-3, 5.31)

Sanchez was pounded by the Orioles on Sunday but managed to pick up the win despite surrendering six runs and 10 hits - four homers - over five innings. The 23-year-old Californian, who will be shifted to the bullpen later in the season to keep his innings down, struck out 12 and permitted two runs over eight frames at Detroit in his previous turn. Baltimore's Chris Davis has tormented Sanchez, going 6-for-10 with three homers and four RBIs.

Wright struggled with his control in a rough outing at Toronto on Saturday, walking five batters while allowing four runs over five innings in a no-decision to remain undefeated in his last six starts. He earned the victory with seven frames of one-run ball versus Kansas City on June 6 - a nice bounce-back effort after surrendering four homers against Boston. He has yet to beat Toronto, posting an 0-3 record and bloated 7.13 ERA in five career appearances.

WALK-OFFS

1. Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista exited Thursday's game after injuring his toe while crashing into the outfield wall and was sent for precautionary X-rays.

2. Machado will have a hearing Tuesday on his appeal of a four-game suspension for his fight with Royals RHP Yordano Ventura.

3. Toronto CF Kevin Pillar, a .325 career hitter versus Baltimore, belted two homers Thursday for his seventh multi-hit performance in 10 games.

PREDICTION: Blue Jays 6, Orioles 3