Friday 12/5/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green

Bonus Play Over

I'm recommending a play on the Over between Northern Illinois & Bowling Green on Friday night. The last time these teams met came in last year's MAC Championship game and we saw 64 points on the scoreboard by the end of the contest. I expect more points in this one. The NIU ground game needs no mention...everyone knows just how strong it is. But QB Drew Hare is also effective with his arm, throwing for more than 18-hundred yards with 15 TD passes and just 1 INT. Da'Ron Brown is Hare's go-to receiver and he's a nightmare matchup for MAC defenses, including Bowling Green's. But of equal or maybe more concern for Bowling Green is a run defense that gave up 5.1 and 6.1 yards per carry to their last two opponents. Falcons' QB James Knapke has led his offense to an average of 31 ppg. Knapke has thrown for more than 24-hundred yards and he will throw the occasional pick, which could mean a short-field situation or two for the Huskies tonight. BG's ground game is also effective with multiple weapons to carry the football. The winning side in the last two meetings has scored 47 and 45 points. We expect more of the same, plus expect the losing side to do its share of scoring on Thursday, sending Northern Illinois & Bowling Green Over the total. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Arizona vs. Oregon

10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Oregon in the PAC-12 Conference Championship game being played in Santa Clara and starting at 9:00 PM ET.

The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. It is well documented how Arizona has been able to contain the Oregon scoring machine and specifically their QB Marcus Mariota. He leads the FBS in Total QBR and has been responsible for an FBS-high 48 touchdowns. Mariota has a higher Total QBR than each of the last five Heisman-winning QBs in the season they won the award and already has been responsible for more touchdowns than the last three winners. However, the stats and story line have been the complete opposite when playing Arizona. Oregon is 0-2 against Arizona and 22-1 against all other teams. Two of the Ducks' three lowest scoring games during that time have come against the Wildcats as Arizona has held Marcus Mariota to a 62 Total QBR in those games. In all sports there are elite players and teams, who simply are vexed at defeating a conference rival. Arizona carries that swagger into this game and all the pressure is squarely on Oregon to win and qualify for the playoffs. Flying under the radar is Arizona QB Anu Solomon, who leads Power 5 QBs in passing yards with 1,016, touchdowns with 10, and 20-yards completions with 14 when on the move and flushed out of the pocket. This mobility is a very real problem for an Oregon defense that has been torched in games this season by QB, who are able to extend plays with their legs. Arizona is coming off a big 42-35 win versus ASU and covered as 1 1/2 point favorites. They are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points since 1992. Take Arizona.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green 7:00PM

5* Northern Illinois

Reason: 5* Play on Northern Illinois. We didn't think the Huskies would win at Western Michigan last week, but six turnovers certainly helps matters on the field and UNI is back in the MAC Championship Game this year in a rematch of last year's MAC Championship Game won by Bowling Green. Big revenge spot for the Huskies here as BG ruined their perfect season, and we think they get their revenge in a big win and cover.

Falcons had nearly 400 yards of passing offense in last year's upset win, but they're not the same team they were a year ago. Already with five losses (including a pair of losses in their two most recent games), BG has been held to under 200 yards passing in 4 of their last 5 games overall. UNI's defense helped them in a bad matchup last week - they have the matchup advantages this week and with big revenge they win easily! 5* Play on Northern Illinois.