Friday 12/5/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mizzou looks for SEC upset

SEC Championship Preview

Missouri Tigers (10-2) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)

Line & Total: Alabama -14.5, Total: 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Alabama -14, Total: 48.5

No. 1 Alabama will look to win its second SEC Championship in three years when it takes on No. 16 Missouri this Saturday in Atlanta.

Missouri has quietly had a great season within the SEC with its one conference loss coming against Georgia by a score of 34-0 as 3-point underdogs back on Oct. 11. Since that defeat, the Tigers have won six consecutive games SU (5-1 ATS) by an average of 11.8 PPG. They were underdogs in each of their past three games, including being 2-point 'dogs in their final contest of the season where they took a 21-14 victory at home against Arkansas while outgaining their opponent 423 to 288.

The Crimson Tide are only 4-7-1 ATS, but had another near-flawless campaign with their one SU loss coming against Ole Miss on Oct. 4 by a score of 23-17 as 4-point favorites. Since that defeat, they have ripped off seven straight wins (3-4 ATS). Alabama put together a valiant effort in its final showing of the year against Auburn, defeating the rival Tigers 55-44 as 10-point favorites at home. Auburn actually outgained the Crimson Tide 628 to 539 in the game, but 'Bama outscored the Tigers 21-7 in the final quarter.

These two programs last played in 2012 when Alabama laid a whooping on Missouri by a score of 42-10 as 21-point favorites on the road. The Crimson Tide put up 533 yards in the victory while holding Missouri to a meager 129 yards of offense, including just three yards on 28 rushing attempts. Trends show that the Tigers are 9-1 ATS (90%) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games in the past two seasons while Alabama is 44-24 ATS (65%) in road games after two or more consecutive SU wins since 1992.

On the injury front, HB Russell Hansbrough (ankle) was injured in the last game for Missouri, but is probable moving forward. QB Blake Sims (ankle) is also listed as probable for this one on the Crimson Tide side of the ball.

Missouri’s offense hasn’t been all that great in 2014, putting up 28.6 PPG (70th in FBS) behind 189.9 passing YPG (100th in nation) and 176.0 rushing YPG (57th in FBS). QB Maty Mauk (2,279 pass yards, 22 TD, 11 INT) was great over the final five games of the regular season, averaging 210.4 YPG while throwing 8 TD and just 2 INT.

It will be important that Missouri gets HB Russell Hansbrough (949 rush yards, 9 TD) back in the fold, as he has averaged 5.4 YPC on the year and has gone over the 100-yard mark three times. If for some reason he is slowed by his ankle injury, they do have a legitimate backup in HB Marcus Murphy (747 rush yards, 4 TD) who has three touchdowns in the past two games and has been a viable option in the receiving game with 185 yards on 25 catches (7.4 avg) and a touchdown. WR Bud Sasser (904 rec yards, 9 TD) has scored five touchdowns in the past five games while hitting the century mark in receiving yards three times, as WR Jimmie Hunt (529 rec yards, 7 TD) has been impressive also.

What has gotten the Tigers this far is their defense, which has allowed a mere 19.7 PPG (13th in nation) on the season and have given up 16.5 PPG over the six-game winning streak to end the season. LBs Kentrell Brothers (103 tackles, 5 TFL) and Michael Scherer (100 tackles, 3 TFL) have paired with DLs Shane Ray (12 sacks, 59 tackles) and Markus Golden (8.5 sacks, 62 tackles) to create a tough task for any opposing offense.

Alabama has done well once again with a balanced offense that has tallied 282.6 YPG through the air (22nd in FBS) and 206.8 YPG on the ground (37th in nation) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Blake Sims (2,988 pass yards, 24 TD, 7 INT) had just four picks all year long, but tossed three interceptions in the Iron Bowl. Sims still managed to throw for 312 yards and 4 TD in the impressive win. He’s contributed quite a bit to the run game this year as well, gaining 302 yards on 64 attempts (4.7 YPC) while getting into the end zone six times.

HB T.J. Yeldon (885 rush yards, 8 TD) has added 180 receiving yards (12.0 avg) with a touchdown this season, and is coming off a nice performance (127 rush yards, 2 TD) against Auburn as well. Backup HB Derrick Henry (754 rush yards, 8 TD) would start on most teams and has at least one touchdown in each of the past three games while averaging 5.4 YPC on the year. WR Amari Cooper (1,573 rec yards, 14 TD) has been nearly unstoppable all year long and is coming off his best performance of the season in which he gained 224 receiving yards and three touchdowns against Auburn. He has now gone over 200 receiving yards three times, and over 100 yards another four times while averaging 15.3 yards per catch.

The defense has been equally impressive as the offense, while allowing just 16.9 PPG (6th in FBS) with the 44 points the Tigers scored last week being the highest total of the year. LBs Xzavier Dickson (8 sacks, 35 tackles), Trey DePriest (77 tackles) and Reggie Ragland (84 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 INT) will need to continue playing at a high level in order to grab another SEC Championship for the program.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Championship Preview

Match-up: Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks
Venue: Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
Date: Friday, December 5, 2014
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – FOX
Line: Oregon -14 ½, Over/Under 73 ½

Oregon will have revenge on its mind at Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The Ducks suffered their lone loss of the season to Arizona in Eugene on Oct. 2, but they'll have a shot at redemption against the Wildcats with the league title and a berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.

Rich Rodriguez's squad is also in the hunt for a CFP invite, but it needs a victory and a little help. If seventh-ranked Arizona knocks off the second-ranked Ducks, it needs two other teams in front of it to lose. If Wisconsin beats Ohio St. and Kansas St. tops Baylor, the Wildcats are probably in business. They would have two losses like Wisconsin and Kansas St., but their two victories over Oregon would trump the resumes of the Badgers and Bill Snyder's team.

There's also the possibility of Alabama and/or FSU losing, but it's debatable whether or not the committee would choose Arizona over either of those schools that are currently ranked first and fourth, respectively.

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Oregon (11-1 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) installed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 73. Gamblers can back the Wildcats on the money line for a +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

For first-half wagers, the Ducks are favored by 7.5 with a total of 37.

The line opened at 13.5 this past Sunday. However, it moved to 14 and then 14.5 late Tuesday afternoon. As for the total, it started at 70 at a few offshores, but most Vegas shops opened at 72.

Mark Helfrich's squad has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, winning every game by 12 points or more. Oregon is off of last week's Civil War victory over Oregon St. by a 47-19 count as a 20.5-point road favorite.

Marcus Mariota produced another brilliant performance against the Beavers. The junior QB completed 19-of-25 passes for 367 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Mariota also rushed for 39 yards and a pair of scores. Royce Freeman rushed for 135 yards on 22 carries and also had a pair of catches for 19 yards and one TD. Byron Marshall had a team-high six receptions for 131 yards and one TD, in addition to 34 rushing yards on just two totes.

Mariota has had an amazing season that'll almost certainly result in his name being called as the Heisman Trophy winner next week. He has completed 68.6 percent of his throws for 3,470 passing yards, with a remarkable 36/2 TD-INT ratio. Mariota has also run for 636 yards and 11 TDs.

Freeman rushed for a team-high 1,185 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Marshall hauled in a team-best 56 receptions for 791 yards and five TDs.

Arizona (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) has been an underdog three times this season, compiling a 2-1 record both SU and ATS. The Wildcats won outright at Oregon and at Utah, but they dropped a 17-7 decision at UCLA as 6.5-point underdogs. I was on 'Zona that night and it would've covered if not for missing a short field goal and having another short attempt blocked in the second half.

R-Rod's team clinched the Pac-12 South by beating Arizona St. and getting an assist from Stanford in its 31-10 win at UCLA. Arizona downed the Sun Devils 42-35 as a two-point home favorite. Nick Wilson was the catalyst with 178 rushing yards and three TDs on 24 carries. Anu Solomon connected on 15-of-21 passes for 208 yards and two TDs without an interception.

Samajie Grant had four catches for 91 yards and two TDs, but he was cited for a DUI later in the weekend. There are conflicting reports on his availability for Friday night. The story earlier in the week was that he wouldn't start, but other publications have indicated that Grant won't play at all.

Solomon has shined under center as a redshirt freshman. He has 3,424 passing yards with a 27/7 TD-INT ratio. Cayleb Jones has been his favorite target, making 63 catches for 831 yards and eight TDs. Wilson has rushed for 1,263 yards and 15 TDs, averaging 6.2 YPC.

Oregon has been a double-digit favorite nine times this year, going 5-4 versus the number.

When these schools met at Autzen Stadium on a Thursday night in early October, Arizona captured a 31-24 win as an enormous 21.5-point road underdog. The 55 combined points easily stayed 'under' the 81.5-point total.

Terris Jones-Grisby rushed for 115 yards and his one-yard TD plunge with 2:54 remaining put Arizona in front to stay. He also had four receptions for 95 yards. Wilson, a true freshman, rushed 13 times for 92 yards and two TDs. He also had a 34-yard TD reception. Solomon threw for 287 yards.

Mariota threw for 276 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had a 26-yard TD catch from Royce Freeman on a trick play. Freeman rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries.

After Jones-Grisby's TD run put Arizona ahead at crunch time, Mariota drove the Ducks into UA territory in hopes of a tying score. However, he was sacked and stripped by Scooby Wright III and the Wildcats recovered to secure the victory.

Wright was named the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year earlier this week. The sophomore linebacker finished the regular season with 139 tackles, 27 tackles behind the line and six forced fumbles.

Arizona has won back-to-back meetings against Oregon. In 2013, the Wildcats spanked the Ducks 42-16 as 20.5-point home underdogs. The 'under' has been a winner in three consecutive head-to-head encounters.

The 'over' is 6-5-1 overall for Oregon, but it has seen back-to-back 'unders.' The Ducks' games have had average combined scores of 69.2 points per game.

The 'under' is 8-4 overall for Arizona, cashing in four of its last five games. The Wildcats' games have had average combined scores of 62.2 PPG.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Title Tips

MAC Championship Preview
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (10-2) vs. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (7-5)

Line & Total: Northern Illinois -7, Total:62
Opening Line & Total: Northern Illinois-5.5, Total: 59

Northern Illinois attempts to win its third MAC Championship in four years when it takes on Bowling Green Friday evening in Detroit.

The Huskies are playing in this conference title game for the fifth straight season, but after capturing wins in both 2011 and 2012, they entered last year's game with a 12-0 record and these Falcons shocked them with a 47-27 blowout win, racking up 574 yards of offense and intercepting two NIU passes.

This year, the Huskies put together another stellar season and dominated their conference with a 7-1 record SU with their lone loss coming to Central Michigan on Oct. 11 by a score of 34-17 as 8-point favorites at home. They have ripped off six straight wins since that setback, but in conference play they did not do very well for bettors, though, going 3-5 ATS while actually covering three of their past four games. NIU had some close calls down the stretch, winning by an average of just 6.7 PPG in its past three contests while being the underdog in each of the past two games. The school finished off the year with a nice win over Western Michigan in which it outscored the Broncos 31-21 while getting 8.5-points on the road. Northern Illinois scored the final 24 points of the game behind 355 yards of offense and six forced turnovers.

Bowling Green has not been quite as dominant as its counterpart in this one, going 5-3 SU (2-5 ATS) in conference, and made this championship game despite losing its past two games. The Falcons took defeats against Toledo (by a score of 27-20), and then finished the regular season off with a disappointing 41-24 loss to Ball State as 10-point favorites at home. They were able to get 314 yards rushing in the game against the Cardinals but failed to make plays when they needed to in a contest where the teams combined for 939 yards of total offense.

Before last season's MAC Championship Game upset, the Huskies had won the previous three meetings in this series (2-1 ATS) by an average of 17.0 PPG. Trends show that NIU is 11-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992, while Bowling Green is 12-3 ATS (80%) after playing a game at home over the past three seasons. There are no significant injuries to either roster in this big game.

Northern Illinois has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they gain 246.2 YPG on the ground (18th in FBS) while passing for a mere 187.2 YPG (103rd in nation) and have scored 30.6 PPG (55th in FBS). QB Drew Hare (1,879 pass yards, 15 TD, 1 INT) may not have a ton of volume, but is extremely efficient with a 60% completion rate for 7.5 YPA. He attempted just 20.8 passes per game and surpassed 200 yards only twice, but mainly serves as a runner while leading the team with 790 yards on the ground (5.9 YPC) and seven touchdowns.

Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Stingily (779 rush yards, 11 TD) who has three performances of 100+ rushing yards, but has averaged a mere 51.3 YPG over the past three games. Stingily rushed for 74 yards on 12 carries (6.2 YPC) in last year's MAC title game versus Bowling Green.

Northern Illinois' one receiver of note is WR Da’Ron Brown (932 rec yards, 6 TD) who has averaged a strong 16.9 yards per catch while hitting the century mark for yards on three separate occasions.

The Huskies defense has been decent while allowing opponents to score 24.2 PPG (45th in nation) on 390.9 total yards per game, and have allowed more than 21 points just once over their past five performances. DB Marlon Moore (86 tackles, 1 INT), LB Rasheen Lemon (81 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and DL Jason Meehan (46 tackles, 7 sacks) have all been impressive on this side of the ball.

The Falcons bring a much more balanced offense to the table in this one while scoring 30.8 PPG (54th in FBS) behind 258.9 passing YPG (42nd in nation) and 180.6 rushing YPG (49th in FBS). QB James Knapke (2,654 pass yards, 12 TD, 10 INT) has struggled with turnovers, as he has thrown a pick in eight of his 11 games while actually going over 300 yards in four different performances. He performed very poorly in the final two contests of the year as the team lost both times and Knapke combined to connect on just 25-of-51 passes (49%) with an average of 105.5 YPG through the air.

HB Travis Greene (803 rush yards, 9 TD) is coming off his best showing of the year when he rushed for 159 yards (11.4 YPC) and a score in the loss to Ball State. He has also been a solid receiver with 180 yards on 24 catches (7.5 avg) and 1 TD. In last year's MAC Championship, Greene racked up 156 total yards with a pair of touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). Greene has some solid depth behind him, as both HBs Fred Coppet (653 rush yards, 6 TD) and Andre Givens (474 rush yards, 8 TD) have done well. WR Roger Lewis (934 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the biggest threat through the air while the team has plenty of great options with WRs Ryan Burbrink (663 rec yards, 3 TD) and Ronnie Moore (598 rec yards, 5 TD) getting some solid production.

The reason this team isn’t better, is a defense that has allowed 32.5 PPG (101st in nation) and has giving up more than 40 points five times this year. The Falcons have surrendered 494.7 total yards per game, including 565.8 total YPG in six non-home games. LB Gabe Martin (100 tackles, 2 INT, 15 TFL) and DB Nick Johnson (61 tackles, 5 INT) have been bright spots on this side of the ball, but will need do a much better job to win the championship game.


Pac-12 Championship Preview
ARIZONA WILDCATS (10-2) vs. OREGON DUCKS (11-1)

Line & Total: Oregon -14, Total: 73
Opening Line & Total: Oregon -14.5, Total: 72

No. 2 Oregon looks to get revenge for its one loss on the year when it faces No. 7 Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game on Friday night.

The Wildcats have looked great all season while losing just two games SU, but is a meager 5-7 ATS on the season. They were able to cover in each of their final two contests though, as they first secured a huge 42-10 win over Utah as 5.5-point underdogs and then earned a trip to this conference championship game with a solid 42-35 victory as 1.5-point favorites at home against in-state rival Arizona State. Arizona was outplayed in nearly every facet of last week's game, as it was outgained 380-333 while each school committed two turnovers.

The Ducks had no trouble getting to their second conference championship game in four years, as they went 8-1 SU in conference play (7-2 ATS) and defeated their opponents by an average of 24.3 PPG over their seven-game winning streak to cap off the season. Their final game came on the road as big 21-point favorites against Oregon State and they had no trouble in that contest, jumping out to a 30-3 halftime lead and cruising to a 47-19 win. They dropped 565 yards of offense on their opponent with 367 of those yards coming through the air.

Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon’s side over the past two seasons in handing them two of their three SU losses during that time. The Wildcats have won by an average of 16.5 PPG in those meetings and were 31-24 victors as 21.5-point underdogs earlier this season when they met in Eugene. They outgained the Ducks 495 to 466, and allowed just 144 yards (3.5 YPC) on the ground.

Bettors should be aware that Arizona is 12-3 ATS (80%) after a home game were both teams score 31 or more points since 1992, while Oregon is 25-5 ATS (83%) after leading its previous two games by 14+ points at the half since 1992 as well. The only significant injury in this game is Arizona RB Terris Jones-Grigsby (ankle), who is listed as questionable. When these schools met in October, Jones-Grisby compiled 210 total yards and a touchdown.

Arizona has put forth a solid offensive effort all season long as it is throwing for 291.4 YPG (18th in nation) and running for 189.8 YPG (44th in FBS) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in nation). Freshman QB Anu Solomon (3,424 pass yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) has been out of this world, as he is averaging 39.9 pass attempts per game and has thrown for over 390 yards in three contests. He has been relied on much less in the past three games though, throwing just two touchdowns and averaging 202.7 YPG passing. He’s had some big performances running the ball as well, and has 282 rushing yards (2.6 YPC) and a touchdown on the ground this year. Solomon threw for 287 yards (9.3 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT in the upset over the Ducks earlier this year.

The real star in the rushing attack is HB Nick Wilson (1,263 rush yards, 15 TD) who has seven performances of 100+ yards this year and rushed for 92 yards and scored 3 total TD in the win at Oregon on Oct. 2. He has scored 8 TD in the past three games and is averaging 163.3 YPG over his past four contests. WR Cayleb Jones (831 rec yards, 8 TD) has been the benefactor of Solomon’s big year, but has put up a mere 32.2 receiving YPG over the past five games. The Wildcats like to spread the ball out, and have six other receivers with 20 or more catches while 10 different players have a touchdown.

The defense has been decent in allowing 25.5 PPG (57th in nation), but also surrenders 434.7 total yards per game. Superstar LB Scooby Wright III (140 tackles, 14 sacks) continues to anchor this unit.

As usual, the Ducks have one of the best offenses in the nation while putting up the nation's fourth-most points (45.9 PPG) as they pass for 307.5 YPG (11th in FBS) and run for 232.0 YPG (24th in nation). QB Marcus Mariota (3,470 yards, 36 TD, 2 INT) is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy as he is completing 68.2% of his passes for 10.4 YPA and has averaged 289.1 YPG. His two picks came in back-to-back games against Cal and Stanford and since then, he has thrown 10 TD in three games, including a big performance in the win over Oregon State when he tallied 406 total yards and 6 TD (4 passing, 2 rushing).

Of course one of Mariota's biggest assets is his ability to run the ball, and he has totaled 636 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 11 TD on the year. Although he threw the ball well versus Arizona on Oct. 2 with 276 yards (8.6 YPA) and 2 TD and even caught a 26-yard touchdown pass, the Wildcats held Mariota to one yard on nine carries.

HB Royce Freeman (1,185 rush yards, 16 TD) has been huge as a freshman, and has been especially big recently with all five of his 100-yard rushing performances coming in the past seven games where he is averaging 119.8 YPG. WR Byron Marshall (791 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top option through the air, while the trio of WR Devon Allen (638 rec yards, 6 TD), WR Dwayne Stanford (557 rec yards, 6 TDs) and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TDs) have also been effective.

The defense for this team has also been solid on the year and is giving up 23.3 PPG (32nd in nation), but also 429.6 total yards per game to its opponents. DB Erick Dargan (81 tackles, 5 INT) has been a difference maker for this team in his final collegiate season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Keep a close eye on total for ACC Championship
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5)

Cincinnati opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Houston, and money has yet to come in on this game. But I do expect Cincinnati money to come in and push this line up to -7 or higher. The Bearcats have won and covered the spread in their last six games, so bettors will be inclined to back Cincinnati once again.

Houston doesn’t have the offensive firepower to trade points with Cincinnati. The Cougars are only averaging 5.4 yards per play despite playing opposing defenses that are giving up 5.7 yards per play. Houston’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but it’s faced an extremely weak slate of opposing offenses. Cincinnati is averaging 35.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play. The Bearcats are less than a TD favorites with a high-octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+12.5) at Marshall Thundering Herd

Marshall is currently a 12.5-point home favorite versus Louisiana Tech, and I anticipate this line going higher. The Thundering Herd are 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS and since they’re laying less than two touchdowns, bettors will be inclined to lay the points in this game.

Louisiana Tech is quietly having a good season as it comes into this game at 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are catching Marshall at the perfect time, with the Thundering Herd coming off their first loss of the season which likely cost them a New Year’s Day bowl bid. This is a huge letdown spot for Marshall after losing 67-66 versus Western Kentucky in overtime last week. Wait this game out and take Louisiana Tech plus the points later in the week.

Total to watch

Florida State Seminoles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (60.5)

Florida State has played in four straight low-scoring games with point totals of 43, 37, 56, and 54. All four of those games went Under the number. Off their recent four games, the oddsmakers are going to deflate the total on this game by a couple of points, especially since the Seminoles have gone 4-8 Over/Under this season.

Georgia Tech was featured in this space last week as a slow-paced, methodical offense. The game against Georgia still went Under the total despite going into overtime. The Yellow Jackets have gone Under the total in three of their past four games and that recent low-scoring trend coincides with Florida State’s recent game results. If this total drops to the 50s, there will be value on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Report: SEC title game to move into new Atlanta stadium
The Sports Xchange

The SEC is working on a long-term agreement to play its football championship game in the new Atlanta Falcons stadium, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Thursday.

The plan calls for the SEC championship game to move into the $1.4 billion retractable-roof stadium in 2017 and remain there through 2026.

"We're not in position to really comment right now, except to say that we are in negotiations and we are encouraged by where we are and certainly anticipate continuing those negotiations," SEC associate commissioner Herb Vincent said, according to the newspaper.

Alabama and Missouri will play Saturday night in the Georgia Dome for the SEC championship. The conference title game has been held there for 21 years and will remain at the dome until it closes after the 2016 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oregon dominating the spread this season
Justin Hartling

The Oregon Ducks have gone a perfect 7-0 against the spread in their past seven games. The Ducks faced a large average spread of -15.5 during those games.

Oregon averaged 47.5 points compared to allowing a mere 23.5 points per game during that seven game stretch.

The Ducks are currently -14.5 against Arizona Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rain expected for Pac-12 championship game
Justin Hartling

Rain is expected to fall on Levi's Stadium starting early Friday morning and straight through the Pac-12 championship game. Showers are supposed to amount to 5-10 mm with winds gusting to 20 miles per hour.

The current total for the Wildcats and Ducks is 74.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten championships going over historically
Justin Hartling

The Big Ten championship has gone over in all three contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Those three games have totaled an average of 80 points per game, with the lowest scoring team putting up 24 points.

The Buckeyes this season have gone 10-2 over/under this season while averaging 44 ppg. The other sideline will be Wisconsin who went 6-5-1 O/U this season, while holding opponents to a mere 16.8 ppg.

The current total for the Big Ten title game is 52.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FSU defense keeping ACC title games under
Justin Hartling

Florida State has gone to the past two ACC championship games and in both instances the game went under. The under trend is thanks to the Seminoles defense which has held opponents to a combined 22 points in those two games.

FSU and Georgia Tech is currently set at 61.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NIU a poor spread play in recent MAC title games
Justin Hartling

Northern Illinois has made it to the past four MAC title games and have gone a terrible 0-3-1 against the spread. The Huskies went into all four of those games as faves of an average of -8.

NIU is currently 6.5-point faves against Bowling Green.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Friday games

Bowling Green (+4.5) upset Northern Illinois 47-27 in this game LY, as Falcons ended 4-game series losing streak. BG threw for 393 yards. Dogs covered four of last six series games. Falcons lost three of last five games overall, giving up 68 points in losing last two games, to Toledo/Ball St. Huskies won last six games, covering three of last four; they're 3-5 as the favorite this season. Remember MAC West is much better than East this year, which favors NIU.

Oregon's only loss this season was 31-24 at home to Arizona way back on October 2, a Thursday night; Wildcats ran ball for 208 yards in their second straight upset of Oregon. Arizona ran for 304 yards LY in 42-16 win over the Ducks. Oregon won/covered all seven of its games since the Arizona loss, winning all seven by 12+ points while scoring 47.6 ppg. Arizona is 3-1 as an underdog this year; their losses were 28-26 to USC, 17-7 to UCLA- six of their ten wins are by 7 or less points.

Saturday games

Conference championship games


Rest of schedule

-- Home side won last four UCF-East Carolina games, covering five of last six; Pirates covered once in last seven games, are 2-2 as home faves this season. UCF won last three games by a combined 100-14.
-- UConn is 2-9 this season, losing last three games by combined total of 117-31; they're 0-1 as a favorite. SMU hired a new coach this week; they are 0-11, 3-8 vs spread, losing last two by combined 88-16.
-- TCU scored 47.7 ppg in winning last six games since losing to Baylor 61-58; they're 4-1 when laying double digits this year. Cyclones allowed 30+ points in every game but one; they're 3-3-1 as double digit dogs.
-- Temple lost last three games, needs win to be bowl eligible; they lost last three games, scoring total of 32 points, but have won couple of road games. Tulane lost last two games, outscored 72-13.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Dec. 5

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
N Illinois: 8-7 UNDER after a 2 game road trip
Bowling Green: 17-6 UNDER after playing a conference game

Arizona at Oregon, 9:00 ET
Arizona: 8-20 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game
Oregon: 7-0 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

College Football Betting Trends - Sat, Dec. 6

SMU at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
SMU: 17-32 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Connecticut: 13-2 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Iowa State at TCU, 12:00 ET
Iowa St: 13-27 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game
TCU: 33-16 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game

Temple at Tulane, 7:30 ET
Temple: 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Tulane: 1-6 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game

Houston at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Houston: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Cincinnati: 6-1 UNDER against conference opponents

Kansas State at Baylor, 3:30 ET
Kansas St: 19-5 ATS after playing a conference game
Baylor: 27-12 OVER after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 17.5 to 21 points
Oklahoma: 13-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Louisiana Tech at Marshall, 12:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 7-21 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Marshall: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Missouri at Alabama, 4:00 ET
Missouri: 3-10 ATS in December games
Alabama: 27-13 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins

Florida State at Georgia Tech, 8:00 ET
Florida St: 14-5 UNDER as a neutral field favorite
Georgia Tech: 12-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Wisconsin at Ohio State, 8:15 ET
Wisconsin: 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Ohio State: 0-6 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival

Fresno State at Boise State, 10:10 ET
Fresno St: 16-10 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Boise St: 59-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 2:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$5100 - FILLIES & MARES NON-WINNERS $3,500 LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $500 HORSES THAT RACED FOR A PURSE OF $13,500 OR HIGHER IN LAST 2 STS INEL AE:NON-WINNERS 5 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE. OPT. CLAIM $12,500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 CAN'T STOP ME NOW 5/2


# 4 MAKE MAGIC 9/5


# 2 UMYGEORGIA HANOVER 9/2


CAN'T STOP ME NOW sure does look ready to dominate. Could very well be the most solid in the group of horses here, showing really strong stats of late. Average speed is a solid 84. This fine animal has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 86 average class figure. Should play well today. Had one of the best speed figures of the field of starters in her last competition. I'd recommend using in your wagers. MAKE MAGIC - She's squaring off in good form, recording clear-cut speed ratings. An excellent selection. Could most likely better this group of horses given the 81 TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in her last gathering. UMYGEORGIA HANOVER - Had one of the strongest speed figs of the field in her last competition. Must use in your bets. Looks like a strong selection in this group of horses and her positive winning percentage says she has the raw talent to score here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 10:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$4200 - NON-WINNERS $2,100 LAST 5 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 CRAZY ABOUT NY 3/1


# 3 NEVERDIE 2/1


# 7 PAINITE 9/2

Hey, listen up! CRAZY ABOUT NY is the sharp bet if you like to win. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 82). NEVERDIE - Worth considering in this race if only for the very good TrackMaster SR earned in the last affair. The number crunching team always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning percentage is proof of that. PAINITE - Could be the best in the field here, showing very nice ratings of late. Avg speed is a solid 82. Been performing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 83).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 10 ALI'S WINNER 6/1


# 4 DAPPER DRAPER 4/1


# 9 PROMETHEUS CROWN 6/1

I like ALI'S WINNER here. Could beat this field given the 89 speed figure earned in his last outing. A solid 89 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. It's a good sign that Englehart is using Davila on this horse. DAPPER DRAPER - He has been running very well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this group of horses. Will most likely go to the lead and might never look back. PROMETHEUS CROWN - Will likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. Berrios has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 15 percent rate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 5, 2014 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $1,500 TO $12,000 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 A. P WILD 4/1


# 2 PUT BACK THE HALO 10/1


# 7 CITIZEN CHRIS 6/1

A. P WILD looks to be a respectable contender. McCarthy has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 20 percent rate. Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be close to the front end early on. In against a much softer field than last time out. PUT BACK THE HALO - Martinez will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out early in this competition. CITIZEN CHRIS - This colt looks very good in this contest since Magee has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Ran a very solid last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,200 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 HOLY ROSIE (ML=3/1)
#4 OUR BARRY GIRL (ML=7/2)
#3 ROBINSILVERBADGE (ML=6/1)


HOLY ROSIE - Lantz and Dobbs getting together are a handicapper's friend. This filly is in good form, having run a nice race on November 21st, finishing second. This filly's last speed rating is high enough to win here, I'll invest in her back again today. Look at this pattern of improvement. 52/55/67 are the last three Equibase speed figures. OUR BARRY GIRL - This filly is in good physical condition, having run a good race on Nov 21st, finishing third. Took a class drop last race out at Hawthorne. Williamson keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move. ROBINSILVERBADGE - Lots of positive 'vibes' joined to this horse and her stable.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SCORPIOBDANCING (ML=5/1), #10 CHARLOTTE'S CAPE (ML=8/1), #2 NO NOTION (ML=8/1),

SCORPIOBDANCING - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but she comes up short most every time. CHARLOTTE'S CAPE - Just cannot bet on this horse. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on October 24th. This sustainer will probably be coming much too late to make a mark in this race. This less than sharp equine ran a common speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat in today's race running that number. NO NOTION - Unlikely that the fig she notched on October 25th will hold up in this event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 HOLY ROSIE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #4 - Post: 2:55pm - Maiden Special - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 MYSTERY GATE (ML=8/1)
#12 SPIRIT FLIGHT (ML=9/2)
#5 JOCKAMO'S SONG (ML=5/1)


MYSTERY GATE - It's a big plus that this first timer has been working over the same track that he makes his debut at today. Don't often see a profitable ROI like +35. This rider/trainer tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. This trainer has an ROI of +116 with horses first time out. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here. SPIRIT FLIGHT - This colt should find these state breds easier than what he faced in his last race on September 13th. Colt has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. This colt's last speed figure recorded on September 13th is number one in last race Equibase speed figs. JOCKAMO'S SONG - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Fair Grounds oval and makes his debut here today. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SOUTHERN KOWBOY (ML=4/1), #7 COWBOY CON (ML=8/1), #6 CENTS OF LEGION (ML=8/1),

SOUTHERN KOWBOY - This morning-line choice hasn't visited the track in awhile. No drills since last race. COWBOY CON - Not likely for this horse to make a winning move with no recent success in a sprint contest. The eighth place finish in the last affair was not the best. The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor. CENTS OF LEGION - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #8 MYSTERY GATE on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[5,8,12] with [5,8,12] with [3,4,5,8,12] with [3,4,5,8,12] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Valuline at Delta Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Delta Downs, Race 4 (Friday December 5, 2014)
TUPELO PLAYBOY

DED-4 1mile DIRT Twelve Horses
"A" CLM 4,000 3YUP $10,000
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL

9 TUPELO PLAYBOY 9/5 45% 6/5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM

8.3 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $65,000.00 PURSE

#3 SMITTEN BY GOLD
#1A CARAMEAWAY / #1 DREAMING OF CARA
#2 LADY GRACENOTE
#5 MISS DA POINT

#3 MITTEN BY GOLD, a 6-1 shot on top folks, is the pace profile leader in this allowance field racing at, or about, today's distance of a mile and seventy yards on the dirt, and has won four straight, including back-to-back, "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts.Jockey David Lopez and Trainer Michael Ferraro send her to the post ... they've hit the board with an impressive, 65% of more than 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #1A CARAMEAWAY has hit the board in four of her last five outings overall, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back. If this entry is scratched, I would not consider using the stablemate, #1 DREAMING OF CARA near the top of my multiple entry contender's list.