MLB strike zones are growing, so should Under profits
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER
Major League Baseball strike zones are growing, according to David Leonhardt of the New York Times, who recently wrote about the impact video technology is having on how baseball umpires call balls and strikes.
The expanded strike zones have played a big part in the decline of scoring in the major leagues, and could be adding extra value to the Under when handicapping MLB totals. Scoring was down to 4.07 team runs per game in 2014, with the regular season finishing with a combined 1,125-1,187 Over/Under record – a 51 percent lean toward the Under.
That offensive production is a steep drop from the 4.17 team runs averaged in 2013 and a significant dip from the 4.38 runs per game in 2010. According to Marc Lawrence, the lowest average team score had been 4.60 runs per game during the 17 seasons prior to 2010.
"There has definitely been a drastic drop in overall scoring in MLB the past few seasons and pitchers are dominating, especially since starters pitch fewer innings and managers are more likely to turn to middle relievers and other specialists out of the bullpen," says Steve Merril.
Leonhardt writes that the new pitch-tracking software used to evaluate umpires is not only creating a larger strike zone – sticking closer to what is written in the rule book – but also more consistent calls. That’s led to a golden age for pitchers, where strikeouts have risen more than 19 percent since 2000.
“The strike zone has increased in size significantly,” Brian Mills, a professor of sports management at the University of Florida, told the New York Times, “and it’s had a huge impact on run scoring over the past eight years or so.”
Leonhardt writes: “The share of pitches between 18 and 24 inches high rose to 18.3 percent this season, from 16.8 percent in 2009, according to Jon Roegele’s research. Batters now swing at 49.2 percent of those pitches, up from 45 percent. The trends lead to more strikeouts and more at-bats when a batter, behind in the count, becomes defensive. And they also lead to more ground-ball outs, because low pitches are tough to hit.”
This season, 46 of the 90 MLB umpires who worked behind home plate in the regular season finished with an Under mark above .500. Last season, there were 42 of 83 umps leaning toward the Under and in 2012, 40 of 82 umpires finished with a record favoring the Under.
The biggest culprits – and perhaps umpires with the largest strike zones – this season were Tony Randazzo (4-15 O/U), Kerwin Danley (6-20 O/U), and Brian O'Nora (7-20 O/U). Those three umpires didn’t call balls and strikes in the postseason, with O'Nora serving as a replay assistant for the World Series.
As for the postseason, October baseball has produced a 14-13 Over/Under record following Game 2 of the World Series. However, the league championship series and World Series (which has gone Over in both games) has produced a 8-3 O/U record heading into Game 3 of the Fall Classic in San Francisco Friday.
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER
Major League Baseball strike zones are growing, according to David Leonhardt of the New York Times, who recently wrote about the impact video technology is having on how baseball umpires call balls and strikes.
The expanded strike zones have played a big part in the decline of scoring in the major leagues, and could be adding extra value to the Under when handicapping MLB totals. Scoring was down to 4.07 team runs per game in 2014, with the regular season finishing with a combined 1,125-1,187 Over/Under record – a 51 percent lean toward the Under.
That offensive production is a steep drop from the 4.17 team runs averaged in 2013 and a significant dip from the 4.38 runs per game in 2010. According to Marc Lawrence, the lowest average team score had been 4.60 runs per game during the 17 seasons prior to 2010.
"There has definitely been a drastic drop in overall scoring in MLB the past few seasons and pitchers are dominating, especially since starters pitch fewer innings and managers are more likely to turn to middle relievers and other specialists out of the bullpen," says Steve Merril.
Leonhardt writes that the new pitch-tracking software used to evaluate umpires is not only creating a larger strike zone – sticking closer to what is written in the rule book – but also more consistent calls. That’s led to a golden age for pitchers, where strikeouts have risen more than 19 percent since 2000.
“The strike zone has increased in size significantly,” Brian Mills, a professor of sports management at the University of Florida, told the New York Times, “and it’s had a huge impact on run scoring over the past eight years or so.”
Leonhardt writes: “The share of pitches between 18 and 24 inches high rose to 18.3 percent this season, from 16.8 percent in 2009, according to Jon Roegele’s research. Batters now swing at 49.2 percent of those pitches, up from 45 percent. The trends lead to more strikeouts and more at-bats when a batter, behind in the count, becomes defensive. And they also lead to more ground-ball outs, because low pitches are tough to hit.”
This season, 46 of the 90 MLB umpires who worked behind home plate in the regular season finished with an Under mark above .500. Last season, there were 42 of 83 umps leaning toward the Under and in 2012, 40 of 82 umpires finished with a record favoring the Under.
The biggest culprits – and perhaps umpires with the largest strike zones – this season were Tony Randazzo (4-15 O/U), Kerwin Danley (6-20 O/U), and Brian O'Nora (7-20 O/U). Those three umpires didn’t call balls and strikes in the postseason, with O'Nora serving as a replay assistant for the World Series.
As for the postseason, October baseball has produced a 14-13 Over/Under record following Game 2 of the World Series. However, the league championship series and World Series (which has gone Over in both games) has produced a 8-3 O/U record heading into Game 3 of the Fall Classic in San Francisco Friday.
