NCAAF Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**BYU at Boise State**
-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise State (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 58. Gamblers can take the Cougars on the money line for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240).
-- BYU (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost three in a row, including a pair of gut-wrenching defeats in the last two weeks. On Oct. 9 at Central Florida, Bronco Mendenhall's team lost a 31-24 decision in overtime. Then last week in Provo, the Cougars allowed three separate double-digit leads to get away in a 42-35 loss to Nevada. They enjoyed a 28-13 advantage at halftime, only to lose outright as 10-point home favorites.
-- In his second start since replacing the injured Taysom Hill, Christian Stewart played his best game against the Wolf Pack. Stewart completed 39-of-63 passes for 408 yards and four TDs without an interception. Mitch Mathews hauled in 16 catches for 182 yards and a pair of TDs.
-- BYU has failed to cover the spread in five straight games.
-- BYU will welcome two of its best players back into the starting lineup this week. Jamaal Williams didn't play against Nevada and left the UCF game after his first carry due to a sprained ankle. Williams has been upgraded to 'probable' this week, however. The junior RB has only played in four games (we won't count his one carry for one yard in Orlando), rushing for 396 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Senior safety Craig Bills, the team's leading returning tackler from 2013, is also ready to go after suffering a concussion at UCF and missing the loss to Nevada. It's a good thing that Williams is returning because two back-up RBs are unlikely to play on the smurf turf. Adam Hine, who has 55 rushing yards on 19 carries, is listed as 'doubtful,' while Algernon Brown is out with an ankle injury. Brown has rushed 30 times for 158 yards and has also caught 11 balls for 101 yards. WR Devon Blackmon is also 'doubtful.' Blackmon, the juco transfer who began his career at Oregon, has been an immense disappointment. He has just three receptions for 58 yards.
-- Boise St. beat Fresno St. by a 37-27 count last Friday, but it never threatened to cover the number as a 17.5-point home favorite. Jay Ajayi ran for 158 yards and two TDs on 30 carries and also had four receptions for 37 yards. QB Grant Hedrick threw for 190 yards and one TD without being intercepted. He also rushed 15 times for 56 yards.
-- Ajayi has rushed for 867 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. He has gone for 150 yards or more four times, including a season-high 219-yard effort in a 37-24 home win over Colorado St. Ajayi also has 35 catches for 317 yards and a pair of TDs.
-- Hedrick has a great completion percentage (71.9%), but he has been turnover prone with a mediocre 8/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hedrick has 1,831 passing yards, in addition to 260 rushing yards for two scores.
-- BYU has the nation's fifth-ranked run defense, limiting opponents to 97.1 yards rushing per game. -- The 'over' is 5-2 overall for BYU, cashing in four consecutive games. The Cougars have seen the 'over' go 2-1 in their three road assignments.
-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for BSU, 2-1 in its home games.
-- When these schools met last year, BYU collected a 37-20 win as a 6.5-point home favorite. In the last encounter on the blue carpet, BSU won by a 7-6 count thanks to a defensive stop on a two-point conversion attempt by the Cougars after scoring with 3:37 remaining. The Broncos failed to cover as six-point home 'chalk' because they came up empty on five fourth-down conversion attempts inside of BYU territory.
-- ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Oregon at California**
-- This game will be played in Santa Clara, which is 51 miles south of Berkeley. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Oregon (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 79.5. Bettors can back the Bears to win outright for a +700 payout (risk $100 to win $700).
-- California (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games after winning four of its first five. Sonny Dykes's squad dropped a 36-34 decision to UCLA last week, but it did hook up its gambling supporters as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 70 combined points stayed 'under' the 72.5-point total.
-- In the loss to the Bruins, Cal QB Jared Goff was intercepted by Marcus Rios in the final minute. UCLA had taken the lead on a short field goal with 3:40 remaining. Goff threw for 303 yards and a pair of TDs and the last-minute pick was his only one of the day.
-- Goff has connected on 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,482 yards with a 24/4 TD-INT ratio. The true sophomore is second in the Pac-12 and sixth in the nation in passing yards.
-- Cal WR Trevor Davis suffered a head/neck injury in the loss to UCLA and is 'out' vs. Oregon. Davis has made 21 receptions for 360 yards and four TDs.
-- Cal compiled an abysmal 1-5 spread record as a home underdog in Dykes's first year in 2013. The spread cover vs. UCLA last week was the first home 'dog spot of this season.
-- Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is enjoying a spectacular season. He has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,957 yards and 19 TDs without an interception. Mariota also has 289 rushing yards and five TDs, in addition to catching a 26-yard TD pass. He completed 24-of-33 throws for 336 yards and two TDs in last week's 45-20 win over Washington. The Ducks took the cash as 21-point favorites.
-- Royce Freeman rushed for a season-high 169 yards and four TDs on 29 carries against the Huskies. For the season, Freeman has rushed for a team-best 636 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.
-- According to Friday's edition of The Oregonian, WR Keanon Lowe remains 'questionable' this week with a hamstring injury. Lowe suffered the injury two weeks ago in a win at UCLA. He has 17 receptions for 266 yards and four TDs.
-- Oregon owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite on Mark Helfrich's watch. The Ducks failed to cover in a 38-31 win at Washington St. on Sept. 20, but they did take the money in a 42-30 win at UCLA.
-- Oregon has won five in a row over Cal in this rivalry, going 4-1 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-1 roll in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these schools. When they squared off in Eugene last year, Oregon captured a 55-16 win as a 38.5-point home 'chalk.' Mariota threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score.
-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for the Bears, 2-2 in their home games. The 'over' had hit in four consecutive games for Cal until the 'under' appeared in its last two outings. This is the highest total Cal has seen all year, with the previous high (72.5) coming last week vs. UCLA.
-- Totals have been an overall split (3-3-1) for the Ducks, who have seen the 'under' go 1-0-1 in their two road assignments. This is Oregon's second-highest tally of the season. When the Ducks lost 31-24 to Arizona at home, the 55 combined points dipped way 'under' the 81.5-point tally.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1.
