Friday 10/10/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #8 - Rating = 1


#2 Risk Parity - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Waging War - Fair odds 3/1
#11 Obsidian Splendor - Fair odds 4/1
#10 Bottom Line - Fair odds 4/1
#6 Roma Road - Fair odds 9/2


Exactas: 2 over 6,7,10,11 and (reverse) 6,7,10,11 over 2.


Risk Parity finished 3rd in his debut on 8/23 then 2nd on 9/13 in career start #2, to a 5 lengths winner, with a strong (for a 2 year old) 85 Equibase Speed Figure. He's still improving, gets a top jockey in Napravnik, and is the key to profit here because if he's not first he's highly likely to be 2nd.

Waging War showed good ability in his debut on 8/2 in a full field at Saratoga, well regarded at 5/2 odds, moving up fast from 9th to 7th to 2nd then holding fourth. In his 2nd start he had no shot at all as a horse fell and he had to slow down and go around and with two very strong workouts coming into the race and improvement off the debut he'd be no surprise if running well enough to win.

Obsidian Splendor missed winning by a nose and a head in his debut last month and should improve but will need to as he earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 76, 9 points (or about 4 lengths) slower than the 85 Risk Parity earned. 2 year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next so that kind of improvement is possible.

Bottom Line finished okay for 3rd of 7 in his debut and can improve as well, while Roma Rode finished 3rd of 10 and although beaten 11 lengths the race was a bit better than it looks as the winner won by 10 so he was in contention for 2nd to the wire, also with improvement possible.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 10/10 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: AMERICAN IN PARIS (2nd)

Spot Play: HUNCH MAN (7th)


Race 1

(5) OLYMPIC SON comes from top connections, has the most money banked this season of his nine rivals and begins from a good post. (3) NOBLE POWER draws inside and has been rounding into form as of late. (2) DELCREST MASSY comes from the Puddy barn, drops in class and was a game second two back. He gets McNair back in the bike and may offer a price.

Race 2

(5) AMERICAN IN PARIS will gain a lot of attention again this week in this top class after winning three of her last four starts. (4) VOELZ HANOVER looks like a main threat again for top honors with her recent efforts, consistency and back class. (2) LIGHTS GO OUT has an unmatchable late kick. She draws inside in a short field.

Race 3

(6) MAJESTE DUHARAS has hit the board in two of her last three starts in this class, enjoys racing off a helmet and may command a fair price. (1) RANDOM MARGIN has hit the board in each of her last three starts with her lowest price being 10-1. She’s been a proven threat in this classification. (2) JAYPORT SUNRISE draws inside, comes from good connections and gets MacDonald in the bike.

Race 4

(2) ITS NO SECRET has been the post time favorite in each of her last two starts in this class and has disappointed. I’ll try her again and hope for a better effort. (6) ADDISON BAY comes from the Menary barn, draws in the middle of the gate and is fresh off a win. (7) WINDSUN SOHO has hit the board in two of her last three starts and comes from the Baillargeon camp. She’s been much better as of late and draws nicely.

Race 5

(4) OZZY OZZY won his qualifier with ease and is capable of returning to the winner’s circle in his first start off the bench. He draws well and gets Hall of Famer Condren in the bike. (9) EXEMPLAR is fresh off a win in this class in gate-to-wire fashion and will offer a short price. (6) MAGICAL POCKETS continues to be a threat in this class, is versatile and should offer a price again this week.

Race 6

(9) D GS PESQUERO drops out of the Fillies & Mares Preferred, comes from the Moreau barn and has a terrific record this season. (8) RUBIS PRESCOTT comes from the Nixon barn, has been very consistent all season and gets MacDonell back in the bike. (7) MATTIE TERROR GIRL has hit the board in each of her last two and is a much better mare than she’s been showing. She’s capable of winning this dash and is a top threat.

Race 7

(6) HUNCH MAN may offer a nice price in this dash and is worth a look. He’s had too far to come in each of his last two, but gets a better post and class relief tonight. (3) VIP BAYAMA draws inside, comes from top connections and closed well in his latest. (8) FALCON JUSTICE is fresh off a win in impressive form with a :27 final frame.

Race 8

(2) ST LADS PENNY LANE has a terrific late kick, draws inside and has hit the board in four of her last five starts, including a pair of wins. (8) EXHILARATED is fresh off a win in this class and will offer a short price once again. (9) DAZZLE N DELIGHT has been very consistent as of late, gets MacDonald in the bike and is a good option for the triactor.

Race 9

(1) JEWELS IN THE SAND gets the rail and was a winner last week in this class. (6) MOONLIGHT ESPOIR comes from a top barn in Beaver and has been a threat in this class over the past few weeks. (9) ANDOVERS TOUCH was a game third last week, comes from the Moreau barn and has a good overall record this season.

Race 10

(9) MEA LILLEY MARK was a closing fourth last week in the Grassroots final. She may offer a price from the outside and can’t be overlooked. (4) PALM BEACH HANOVER comes from the Menary barn and has won two straight. (8) BET YA went the biggest mile of her career last week and is in top form right now.

Race 11

(7) SOMEWHERE FANCY just missed last week in this class with a solid final quarter. (1) NAKED CITY was a winner two back in this class and drops back down into this level. (3) ANDREIOS KARDIA should offer a nice price in here. He enjoys racing off a helmet, draws inside and shows the speed.

Race 12

(7) WILDCAT HANNA is a much better mare than she’s been showing and is due for a winning effort. (5) SHADYS M THREE was a closing third last week, draws in the middle of the gate and gets Waples in the bike. (6) HUSTLEONHOME has terrific gate speed, gets Henry aboard this week and should offer a nice price.

Race 13

(9) SIR LBS Z TAM enters the Moreau barn, which is a good angle to consider. (5) BEE FULLOF STEINAM is fresh off a win, comes from the Nixon barn and may be the favorite in this dash. (6) PALM PATROL has terrific gate speed, comes from the Auciello barn and can’t be overlooked

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 10/10 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 302 - 1141 / $1,951.50 BEST BETS: 23 - 95 / $113.90

Best Bet: HANDSOFFMYCOOKIE (12th)

Spot Play: WATERSIDE CHAMP (5th)


Race 1

(3) JOLLY JUBITER was sharp in victory last time out and this gelding seems to have the right stuff to make it two straight. (1) VIPER HANOVER was sent down the road last out for all the glory. (8) SEA VENTURE put in a late surge for win honors last time around.

Race 2

(3) PINE TAB was nailed for the score last time out and this trotter can put it all together against these. (2) SAILER EDDIE gets class relief and that might help his cause. (5) IM FABULOUS can be right in the mix.

Race 3

(5) PICTONIAN PRIDE moves to the five-slot where this guy was a easy winner four tries ago and could move forward with a fine-timed drive from Dube. (4) LARAMARS SOUL flashed some speed in his most recent outing. (1) ARRONS MATTJESTY retains the one-hole and Brennan signs on.

Race 4

(4) MUGSHOT JESS was a game second last time out and this trotting gelding can boss these at his best. (1) SWEET JUSTICE should do much better from the fence. (2) BOUNCING BAX put in a tough break at the start last time around but she could rebound.

Race 5

(2) WATERSIDE CHAMP can take these to task for all the marbles with the right trip. (3) REPORT FOR DUTY N showed fine speed and hit the board in his last three starts. (4) LULUS BOY is a Freehold invader who picks up Sears.

Race 6

Will go with (8) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL to get back to her winning form. It is good to see Sears with the call, and perhaps they can turn the tables on (4) COFFEE ADDICT, who rallied strongly last out for the victory. (5) ROCKAROUND SUE has hit the board in her last four trips to the post.

Race 7

(6) RIVIERA was nailed for the victory in her last try. Pacing miss fits well in here and could take this at her best. (2) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N should fare quite well from the two-hole. (3) OCEANS MOTION could be right in the mix.

Race 8

(6) GURAL HANOVER put in a nice effort at Philly last time out. Trotting gelding can top this group and Brennan stays. (4) SOMEBODY AS was very game in his last three starts and seems to be a threat in here. (5) FORT VALLEY AS has good early zip; watch out.

Race 9

(2) ROCK OF CASHEL has a good late kick and is sharp of late; gets the call. (5) ROYAL MALINDA drops a bit in class; worth a look. (3) WILD SMILE raced evenly in his last try.

Race 10

(6) P L FIGHTER moves down in class and has the tactical speed to pounce and score. (2) PENCE HANOVER & (1) LATE NITE FLIGHT get serious post relief.

Race 11

(5) BASTILLE posted an even trip in his last start. Trotting gelding has every right to make tonight a winning one. (1) ON THE PODIUM has wheeled off three straight scores; main danger. (4) BACKSTREET HANOVER moves down the ladder; watch out.

Race 12

Let's hope (1) HANDSOFFMYCOOKIE can get back on the winning track from the one-hole; capable. (4) MAGIC STARLIGHT was second best in her previous start. (2) ROCK N LOAD has speed and could contend with this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (4th) Arctic Ocean, 8-1
(5th) My Tee Time, 6-1


Belterra Park (2nd) Saucy Sarah, 3-1
(3rd) Wakes Week, 9-2


Charles Town (2nd) Lander Road, 3-1
(7th) Thegames a Bustout, 8-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Wild Hardships, 5-1
(5th) Our Day in Court, 6-1


Gulfstream Park West (5th) Blings Express, 3-1
(8th) French Politics, 4-1

Hawthorne (3rd) Purely Given, 7-2
(8th) Hawk's Image, 7-2

Keeneland (6th) Indygo Bo, 7-2
(10th) Miraculousmo, 4-1


Laurel Park (3rd) My Beholder, 3-1
(7th) E Biscuit, 8-1

Meadowlands (1st) Wildly Good Lookin, 6-1
(5th) Silent Honor, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Sir J. J., 7-2
(9th) Our Prize, 9-2

Remington Park (6th) Charlie Webb, 5-1
(7th) Steel Cut, 5-1


Retama Park (3rd) Night Tide, 3-1
(5th) Championship Gold, 9-2

Santa Anita (2nd) Speedy Tornado, 6-1
(6th) Nueva Fortuna, 4-1

Thistledown (4th) Palmetto Star, 4-1
(7th) Forester's Diva, 10-1


Woodbine (5th) Vader, 6-1
(8th) Breaking Doors, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Friday's free selection: New York Islanders even

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: San Diego St/New Mexico Over 51½ Points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Hamilton + 3 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: Fresno St/UNLV Over 65½ Points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Friday: Hamilton Bearcats + 3 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Anthony Sports

Friday's Free Selection: New York Islanders even

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Comp MLB Pick for Friday, October 10, 2014: 8:05 PM

(951) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (952) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, October 10, 2014 comes in baseball as the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals meet in Camden yards. Both teams have fine starting pitching and defense in the field. The under is 5-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a road underdog, as well as 37-17-5 under the total when the Royals are a dog of +110 to +150. At least they have ace James Shields on the hill, and the under is 6-2-1 in Shields' last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Baltimore has a strong starter and a deep, lights out bullpen. They are 7-2-1 under the total as a favorite. The under is 18-7-1 in Chris Tillman's last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams meet the under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings, including 6-1 under the total at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Play Kansas City/Baltimore Game 1 under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Allen Sports

FRI FREE Selection

NY ISLANDERS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Washington State vs. Stanford

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Washington State +17

The Washington State Cougars are much better than their 2-4 record would indicate. All four of their losses have come by 11 points or fewer, including three by a touchdown or less. They lost to Rutgers 38-41, Oregon 31-38 and California 59-60. Those three efforts against very solid teams, especially Oregon, show that the Cougars are capable of playing within anyone in the country. That includes Stanford this week.

I just am not sold on Stanford this season. While it does have one of the best defenses in the country, its offense leaves a lot to be desired. It has managed 20 points or less in three of its five games this season, including 10 to USC and 14 to Notre Dame, which both resulted in losses. Kevin Hogan really holds his team back as he just isn’t a very efficient, accurate quarterback. This Stanford offense is averaging just 371.6 yards per game this season.

Washington State’s offense, on the other hand, is the reason it is capable of competing with a team like Stanford and keeping this game close. The Cougars are putting up 38.0 points and 579.5 yards per game this season. That’s impressive when you consider their opponents are allowing 29.4 points and 474 yards per game. Their defense is giving up 438.2 yards per game, but that’s not that terrible when you consider opposing offenses are averaging 436 yards per game on the season.

Connor Halliday is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is executing Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense at a very high level. Halliday is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 3,052 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions already this season. He shares the wealth to his receivers as Vince Mayle (51 receptions, 703 yards, 6 TD), River Cracraft (43, 576, 6), Isiah Myers (45, 574, 7), and Dom Williams (24, 496, 6) are all having monster seasons.

Two years ago, Stanford only won 24-17 at home against Washington State as a 25-point favorite. Two years before that in 2010, the Cougars were only beaten 28-38 at Stanford as 37-point underdogs. They have played tough in their last two visits to Stanford Stadium, and I look for them to likely make that three in a row this year. Also, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.

Washington State is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Stanford is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Cougars are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss. Washington State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Washington State Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jesse Schule

Washington State vs. Stanford

Free NCAAF Play WSU@STAN to go OVER the total

When the Washington State Cougars take on Stanford at The Farm Friday night, we'll see the nation's leading passer matched up against the Cardinal's top ranked defense. Last week Halliday threw for an FBS record 734 yards, and the Cougars still lost at home to Cal. As good as the Cougars are on offense, they simply can't stop opponents from scoring. That was the case when these teams played in Washington last season as the Cardinal won 55-17.

The score was a lot closer the last time the Cougars traveled to Palo Alto, and I expect Halliday to put a few points on the board here on Friday. The Cougars are just 1-2 during a three game stretch that has seen them score 118 points. They upset the Utes in Utah two weeks ago, proving they have what it takes to compete on the road.

Kevin Hogan had a big game in last year's meeting, throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. He's been limited in practice all week suffering a leg injury, but is expected to start tonight.

Keep an eye on River Cracraft, the Cougars WR caught 11 passes for 172 yards and three TDs on Saturday. It's not like they can put a double team on him, with senior Vince Mayle on the other side, the team leader with 703 yards and six TDs.

Stanford might have the best defense in the country, but their strength is in stopping the run. That's not going to help them against the Cougars, who don't have much of a running game anyway.

The Cardinal are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams with a losing record, and they've seen the total go over in 10 of their last 14 coming off a loss.

Take OVER

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Fresno St. at UNLV 10:00PM

Prediction: UNLV

Edges - Rebels: 16-6 ATS home with Bobby Hauck; and 5-1 ATS Home off previous SU home loss.? Bulldogs: 2-11 ATS road favorites? -6 or more points versus foe off SU loss more than 21 points; and 6-14 ATS in 4th away game of season.? With Fresno looking dead ahead to a bigger fish in Boise State, we recommend a 1-unit play on UNLV.? Thank you and good lucks as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

5* MLB Bonus Play Kansas City Royals -105

The Orioles have yet to announce their game one starter but for me it doesn’t really matter. James Shields is going for the Royals and I like his ability to shut down the O’s lineup while KC scores enough to win.

The even up value is a pretty good indicator of where the advantage are for this game one. I just hope the time off hasn’t let the Royals cool off too much or messed with their head.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

San Diego St. at New Mexico 9:30PM

5* New Mexico

Reason: 5* Play on New Mexico. Points are very appealing in this matchup of two rush-heavy offenses, and we'll grab the points with New Mexico in the home underdog role, looking for them to have a decent shot at an outright win. Home underdogs are usually appealing anyway in these weeknight games featuring teams that don't usually have many chances to show themselves off to a national audience.

New Mexico was a big 14.5-point road underdog at San Diego State last year, and while they came up short on the scoreboard by five points they played very well in an easy ATS cover. Look for a similar type of game this time around with both teams running the ball in excess of 40 times each. Have to point out San Diego State's road record this season - going 0-3 straight up while committing 8 turnovers in those three games (just one turnover committed in two home games combined). One mistake could be the difference and we'll back the home team to pull the upset! 5* Play on New Mexico.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'ALCS'

The Baltimore Orioles coming off a sweep of the Detroit Tigers play host in game-one to Kansas City Royals who polished off Anaheim in three, the team with the best record in baseball. Orioles vying for an AL pennant for first time since 1983 count on Chris Tillman carrying a 13-6 record, 3.34 ERA to the mound (25-10 TSR). Tillman picking up a victory in the ALDS has a sparkling 12-1 team start record the past 13 on the mound. Royals this deep into October for the first time since '85 hand the ball to with James Shields. The hurler picking up a win in the ALDS heads to the hill 14-8 on the campaign (23-16 TSR) with a 3.21 ERA. Royals have won 6 of Shields' last 7 starts. Quality pitching on both mounds along with this series having a propensity to stay 'Under' the oddsmakers totals makes for a great opportunity to cash on the 'Under'. The clubs have played 'Under' in 11 of 14 meetings including 5-1 'Under' at Camden Yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Royals-Orioles

Shields is 1-1, 4.40 in his last five starts, 3-4, 4.96 in eight postseason starts; he is 2-0, 3.21 against Baltimore this season.

Tillman is 3-1, 3.03 in his last five starts; he threw nine shutout innings in his only '14 start vs Kansas City, but didn't get a decision. Tillman allowed two runs in five IP in winning his first postseason start.

Royals won ten of last twelve games, including last five in row; they're 8-2 in their last ten road games.

Orioles won last four games, allowing 10 runs; they're 22-6 in last 28 at home.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Friday, 10/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

American League Championship Series

#951 KANSAS CITY @ #952 BALTIMORE
TV: 8:07 PM EST, TBS
Line: Orioles -125, Total: 7

The Kansas City Royals are entering their first American League Championship Series since winning the World Series in 1985. The Baltimore Orioles, who host the Royals in Game #1 of the American League Championship Series on Friday evening, are back for the first time since 1997 and are searching for the franchise’s first pennant since 1983. The Orioles and Kansas City present a contrast of styles but got to the ALCS the same way – with strong starting pitching and dominant bullpen work.

Baltimore led the majors in home runs and was last in stolen bases during the regular season while Kansas City was last in home runs but sat on top in stolen bases. The Royals do all the things well that teams need to do to win without hitting home runs, including playing great defense, but started to power up in the postseason with key extra-inning blasts from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Even without Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in the lineup, the Orioles pounded Detroit pitching in the American League Divisional Series behind a strong series from Nelson Cruz and consistent production from Nick Markakis in the leadoff spot.

PITCHING MATCHUP
•Royals RH James Shields (15-8, 3.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.189) - “Big Game” James was bailed out by his offense after allowing four runs in five innings in the wild-card game against Oakland and surrendered a pair of solo home runs before earning the win over Los Angeles in his lone ALDS start. The free agent to-be’s big-game reputation outpaces the actual results as he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason starts, including 0-2 in the ALCS. Shields picked up a pair of wins over the Orioles earlier this season, yielding a total of five runs and 12 hits in 14 innings.

--SHIELDS is 7-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

--SHIELDS is 18-3 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2.

--SHIELDS is 9-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.2, OPPONENT 1.7.

--SHIELDS is 15-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.7, OPPONENT 2.2.

•Orioles RH Chris Tillman (14-6, 3.26 ERA, WHIP: 1.220) - Tillman battled through five innings against Detroit in Game #1 of the ALDS and held the Tigers to a pair of solo home runs in earning the win. The 26-year-old completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts but issued only one walk against Detroit while striking out six. Tillman had no trouble going deep into the game against the Royals on May 16th, when he tossed a five-hit shutout.

--TILLMAN is 14-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.7, OPPONENT 3.7.

--TILLMAN is 11-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.3, OPPONENT 2.5.

--TILLMAN is 19-4 (+14.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.1, OPPONENT 3.0.

--TILLMAN is 17-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.9, OPPONENT 3.3.

--TILLMAN is 15-3 (+13.7 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.7, OPPONENT 2.5.

--TILLMAN is 16-4 (+11.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.6, OPPONENT 2.3.

•SUPPORTING TRENDS
--TILLMAN is 18-5 against the run line (+16.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.1, OPPONENT 3.0.

--TILLMAN is 16-5 against the run line (+13.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.9, OPPONENT 3.3.

--TILLMAN is 14-4 against the run line (+11.6 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.7, OPPONENT 2.5.

--TILLMAN is 12-4 against the run line (+9.7 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 4.6, OPPONENT 2.6.

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•PREGAME NOTES: Cruz owns 16 career postseason home runs, including eight in 12 ALCS games.... Kansas City DH Billy Butler went 0-for-9 with three walks in the ALDS.... Baltimore LHP Andrew Miller totaled 3 1/3 hitless innings in the ALDS.... Kansas City led the majors with 153 stolen bases during the regular season then, with blazing-fast rookie Terrance Gore, added seven in a wild-card win over Oakland and five more in a three-game wipeout of the top-seeded Los Angeles Angels.... Baltimore finished dead last in the majors with 44 stolen bases, it led the majors with 211 home runs. Nelson Cruz had 40 of them, only 55 fewer than the Royals hit while finishing last in the big leagues as the only team that didn't hit 100.... There is a 74 percent chance of rain at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while temperatures will be in the mid 50's. There will also be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing in from center field.

•RESEARCH NOTES
--The Royals chased 23 percent of the fastballs they saw out of the zone with fewer than two strikes in the count, most often in the AL. The Royals chased 31 percent of the fastballs they saw out of the zone in the ALDS, and they hit .238 in those at-bats.

--The Royals led MLB with a .267 batting average on pitches up in the zone, but they hit home runs in fewer than two percent of their at-bats against those pitches (the only AL team to do so). Only Chris Young threw more pitches up in the zone than Tillman this season. On those pitches, Tillman allowed a .332 slugging percentage, below the league average. Opposing hitters were 1-for-7 with four strikeouts on 41 pitches that Tillman threw up in the strike zone in Game One of the ALDS against Detroit.

--The Royals and Orioles will meet in the ALCS beginning Friday night, and the teams could not be any different offensively. The Royals rely on small-ball, finishing dead last in baseball in home runs, but first in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Orioles are exactly the opposite: first in home runs and last in steals.

--67 of James Shields' 180 regular-season strikeouts came against his changeup, the most of any pitch he threw. In two-strike counts, the Orioles missed on 52 percent of their swings against changeups, highest in the AL. Nick Markakis was 1-for-6 in at-bats ending in a changeup in the ALDS after hitting .216 in the regular season in at-bats ending in the pitch (below league average).

--The Orioles chased 28 percent of the curveballs they saw out of the strike zone when the count had fewer than two strikes, highest in the AL (next-most was 21 percent). Adam Jones chased 52.5 percent of the curveballs he saw out of the strike zone in the regular season, highest in the AL (next-highest 47 percent).

•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 34-15 against the run line (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.1.

--BALTIMORE is 45-21 against the run line (+24.6 Units) versus American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2.

--BALTIMORE is 28-15 against the run line (+15.9 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.0.

--BALTIMORE is 45-21 against the run line (+26.4 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2.

--BALTIMORE is 31-16 against the run line (+18.0 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

--BALTIMORE is 50-24 against the run line (+28.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

--BALTIMORE is 43-22 against the run line (+19.9 Units) versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 12-11 (+1.8 Units) against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons. 16 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +8.9 Units.

--Games This Season: KANSAS CITY is 4-3 (+0.6 Units) against BALTIMORE this season. 5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +2.5 Units.

--All Games At BALTIMORE Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 7-6 (+2.5 Units) against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons. 9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +4.4 Units.

--Games Played At BALTIMORE This Season: KANSAS CITY is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season. 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +0.8 Units.

--Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore.

•RECENT TRENDS
--KC is 2-6 in their L8 as an underdog of +110 to +150.
--KC is 3-8 in their last 11 versus American League East.
--KC is 2-5 L7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

--BAL is 10-1 in their last 11 versus American League Central.
--BAL is 8-0 in TILLMANS last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less.
--BAL is 5-0 in TILLMANS last 5 starts versus American League Central.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(77-44 since 1997.) (63.6%, +33.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (74-47)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +100
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 60 (49.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (13-12, +0.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-26, +9.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (53-33, +20.8 units).
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