ALCS Odds, Picks and Props
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- At the beginning of spring training, bettors could have had either the Kansas City Royals or Baltimore Orioles at 40-to-1 odds to win the World Series, a price that didn’t move much for either team heading into June (the Orioles were adjusted to 25-to-1). After Friday’s Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, one of these teams will be a step closer to cashing for the lucky few that had the faith and foresight.
The Royals, making their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985, have mowed through the playoffs with a 4-0 record that includes beating Jon Lester and Oakland in the wild-card game and sweeping the Angels, who were large -200 favorites, in the ALDS.
The Orioles last made the ALCS in 1997, losing 4-2 to Cleveland, and haven’t been to the World Series since 1983, Cal Ripken‘s second full season. This season, they cruised through the AL East and then in the ALDS, they swept the Tigers, who were -150 favorites behind their rotation of Cy Young starters.
In Game 1 of the ALCS, Chris Tillman is the -125 favorite for Baltimore, while the Royals counter with James Shields. Because of the home-field edge, Baltimore is -140 to win the series.
Friday, October 10, 2014 - 8:07 p.m. ET - TV: TBS
ALDS Game 1 - Kansas City Royals (89-73) at Baltimore Orioles (96-66)
Series odds: Orioles -140 (South Point)
Season series: Royals won 4-3
World Series odds: Orioles 2/1, Royals 3/1, Cardinals 5/2, Giants 3/1
Game 1 Linemakers lean: With the way these teams have been playing, you could make a case for either side, and you always want to find more reasons to back the underdog for a bigger payout. The Royals have won the last three games started by Shields, all of which were pressure-packed with the season on the line, and he also won both his starts against Baltimore this season. On April 27, the Royals won 9-3 at Camden Yards, as Shields went seven innings and allowed only two runs. Then on May 18, K.C. won 8-6 at home, with Shields going seven innings while allowing three runs and nine hits.
On the other side, we have baseball’s most profitable pitcher for bettors. The Orioles went 25-10 behind Tillman for +16.3 units of profit, which is substantially higher than the pitcher at No. 2, Bud Norris, at +12.6 units. Most of Tillman’s assault on the sports books started late in the season; since July 29, the Orioles are 12-1 behind him. In his one start against the Royals this season, he pitched the only complete-game shutout of his six-year career, a 4-0 win at Kaufman Stadium against Jeremy Guthrie.
We like the Orioles’ power to get the best of Shields here. He’s served up a home run in each of his past four games, including two solo shots to the Angels on Sunday.
Prediction: Orioles 7-4
Series Schedule:
Game 1, Friday: James Shields (15-8, 3.29 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (14-6, 3.26) -125, 7 OVER -120
Game 2, Saturday: Yordano Ventura vs. TBA (likely Chen)
Game 3, Monday: TBA vs. TBA
Game 4, Tuesday: TBA vs. TBA
2014 Royals/Orioles trends:
-- Kansas City was 23-13 (+6.8 units) behind James Shields.
-- Kansas City was 49-34 (+17 units) on the road.
-- Kansas City was 67-52 (+5.2 units) vs. right-handed starters.
-- Kansas City was 47-35 (+11.2 vs. winning teams.
-- Baltimore was 25-10 (+16.3 units) behind Chris Tillman.
-- Baltimore was 88-59 (+33.4 units) vs. right-handers starters.
-- Baltimore was 73-36 (+42.7 units) in night games.
-- Baltimore was 48-27 (+27.6 units) vs. winning teams.
Home/away streaks: The Royals are 23-9 in their last 32 road games, while the Orioles are 37-15 in their last 52 home games.
UNDER-fest? Five of the seven head-to-head meetings this season have stayed UNDER the total. In the past three seasons, 16 of the 22 games have stayed UNDER.
Series lean: This figures to be a very competitive series -- no sweeps here -- but we ultimately have the Orioles winning in seven games. While both starting rotations have been outstanding over the past month, the back-end for the Orioles has been a little better. Surprisingly, the biggest edge may come in Game 4 Tuesday, where Miguel Gonzalez is expected to match up against former Oriole Jeremy Guthrie in Kansas City. In Gonzalez’s last five starts, he’s posted a 1.69 ERA over 32 innings.
Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph will play a major role in this series, not only with his surprising power, but also with his arm against the Royals’ rabbits on the bases. The Royals had 12 steals in their four playoff games, including seven against Oakland. Only Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina was better at throwing out would-be base stealers (47 percent) than Joseph, who nailed 40 percent. If the Orioles can neutralize that area, it’ll take away part of what makes the Royals so dangerous and give Baltimore an even bigger edge.
Royals at Orioles - Game 1 props
Total Strikeouts thrown by: James Shields (KC)
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 EVEN
Will James Shields (KC) allow a Home Run?
Yes -110
No -110
Total Strikeouts thrown by: Chris Tillman (Bal)
Over 4.5 -130
Under 4.5 +110
Will Chris Tillman (Bal) allow a Home Run?
Yes EVEN
No -120
Most Total Bases
(Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0)
Eric Hosmer (KC) +110
Adam Jones (Bal) -130
Most Total Bases
(Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0)
Alex Gordon (KC) EVEN
Nick Markakis (Bal) -120
Most Total Bases
(Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0)
Nori Aoki (KC) EVEN
Alejandro DeAza (Bal) -120
Will Nelson Cruz (Bal) hit a Home Run?
Yes +425
No -550
Total Number of Different Players to Throw a Pitch in Game #1
Over 8.5 -140
Under 8.5 +120
Total Runs+Hits+Errors by: Royals+Orioles
Over 25.5 -110
Under 25.5 -110
