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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How to get rich betting NBA back-to-back scenarios
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Ask yourself a simple question before we dive into this week’s column: Have you come across a single NBA analyst, former player, friend or even twitter troll who has predicted anything but a Golden State-Cleveland showdown in this season’s NBA Finals?

While I’m virtually certain that Planet Earth contains at least one human being who believes that, perhaps, the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs or Houston Rockets will prevent us from the championship trilogy we appear destined to enjoy, the fact remains that the Warriors and Cavaliers boast such ridiculously impressive resumes that very few would be willing to bet against either team making it back to the NBA Finals.

Entering Wednesday night’s slate of action, Golden State and Cleveland ranked in the top five in the NBA in scoring, three-point percentage and a bevy of other statistical categories. But interestingly enough, there is one wagering category in which both the top seed in the Western Conference and the top seed in the Eastern Conference rank in the bottom five of the Association.

Boys and girls, if you plan to bet against the Warriors or Cavaliers, do it when either team is on the second half of a back-to-back stretch.

As of the close of business on Tuesday, January 16, LeBron James and the Cavaliers are just 2-6 against the spread this season when playing the second half of a back-to-back. As for Kevin Durant and the Warriors, Golden State is an abysmal 1-6 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back situation this season. Only Indiana (1-6 ATS) comes close to matching Golden State’s ATS futility as it pertains to this particular scenario.

A litany of reasons exist as to why certain teams struggle while others thrive when playing the second half of a back-to-back. Resting starters or established veterans, long travel, late nights and a lack of sleep are just a few of the possible reasons when it comes to the “why.” But now that we’re officially halfway through the 2016-2017 NBA season, it’s time to take a good, long look as to which teams excel and which clubs falter in this situation so we can better position ourselves to gain a potential edge over the bookmakers.

Entering Wednesday night, there were exactly 248 instances in which an NBA team played the second half of a back-to-back scenario this season:

Overall record straight-up: 101-147 (.407)
Overall record against the spread: 116-128-4 (.475)

At first glance, there really isn’t much to get excited about here. If we had bet against every single team every time they were playing in the second half of a back-to-back, we would barely have broken even up until this point.

But what if we were betting ON the top five clubs and AGAINST the bottom five franchises?

Top five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 33-10 ATS (.767)
Bottom five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 8-30 ATS (.210)

Granted, there was no way to know at the beginning of the season which teams would rank in the top five and which squads would rank in the bottom five at the midway point of the 2016-2017 NBA campaign. However, this should serve as useful information moving forward, as betting ON the top five and AGAINST the bottom five in the second half of a back-to-back has produced a combined record of 63-18 ATS this season (.777).

NBA teams in the second half of a back-to-back this season

*All records updated as of Wednesday, January 18.

Miami Heat: 7-1 ATS (2-6 SU)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU)
San Antonio Spurs: 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU)
Houston Rockets: 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU)
Memphis Grizzlies: 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU)
Atlanta Hawks: 6-3 ATS (6-3 SU)
Orlando Magic: 6-3 ATS (3-6 SU)
Toronto Raptors: 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU)
Los Angeles Clippers: 5-3 ATS (5-3 SU)
Phoenix Suns: 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU)
Boston Celtics: 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU)
Chicago Bulls: 5-5 ATS (4-6 SU)
New York Knicks: 4-5 ATS (1-8 SU)
Utah Jazz: 4-5-1 ATS (6-4 SU)
Sacramento Kings: 3-4-1 ATS (2-6 SU)
Los Angeles Lakers: 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU)
Brooklyn Nets: 2-3-1 ATS (0-6 SU)
Charlotte Hornets: 3-5 ATS (3-5 SU)
Denver Nuggets: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)
Philadelphia 76ers: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)
Washington Wizards: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)
Portland Trail Blazers: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)
New Orleans Pelicans: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)
Dallas Mavericks: 2-5 ATS (0-7 SU)
Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-6 ATS (3-5 SU)
Detroit Pistons: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)
Milwaukee Bucks: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)
Golden State Warriors: 1-6 ATS (6-1 SU)
Indiana Pacers: 1-6 ATS (1-6 SU)

Here’s your rundown of back-to-back scenarios to monitor as we head into the weekend:

FRIDAY

None

SATURDAY

Trail Blazers at Celtics (5:00pm ET): Portland is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Blazers are 3-6 ATS.

Nets at Hornets (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

76ers at Hawks (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Bucks at Heat (7:30pm ET): Milwaukee is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Bucks are just 2-6 ATS.

Rockets at Grizzlies (8:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Pacers at Jazz (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Kings at Bulls (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

SUNDAY

Suns at Raptors (6:00pm ET): Phoenix is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Suns are 4-3 ATS.

Nuggets at Timberwolves (7:00pm ET): Denver is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Trail Blazers (18-26) at 76ers (14-26)

Date: January 20, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

The Philadelphia 76ers, a laughingstock in recent seasons, have new life.

The Portland Trail Blazers, thought to be a team on the rise, are in the meantime searching for their old mojo.

The two teams square off Friday night in Philadelphia.

The Sixers (14-26) are in a stretch that has seen them win five of six games and seven of nine, while the Blazers (18-26) are on a three-game losing streak.

Philadelphia has been bolstered by the play of rookie center Joel Embiid, who leads his team, as well as all first-year players, in scoring (19.9), rebounding (7.8) and blocked shots (2.4).

Before the Sixers faced Toronto on Wednesday night, Raptors coach Dwane Casey went so far as to compare Embiid to a young Shaquille O'Neal.

"Shaq didn't shoot it like this young man," Casey said, "but his athletic ability, his quickness, his speed for his size, his ability to get where he wants to go off the dribble presents a huge problem on both ends of the floor, because defensively now he's moving his feet to protect the rim."

Embiid then generated 26 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in Philadelphia's 94-89 victory, which ended a 14-game losing streak to the Raptors dating back to 2013.

It was the 10th straight game in which Embiid scored 20 points or more, even though he did not play more than 30 minutes in any of them. He is the first player with such a streak since the Elias Sports Bureau began tracking minutes in 1951-52.

The team continues to limit Embiid, the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, to 28 minutes a night, after he missed two seasons while recovering from a pair of foot surgeries.

He has fully connected with a fan base weary of losing. Again and again the spectators launch into chants of "Trust the process" -- his catchphrase -- and he eggs them on. He is also an active and amusing presence on social media.

"Even on the road you hear 'trust the process' chants," Embiid said after Wednesday's game. "I feel like everybody around the world is starting to follow and trust us, and trust the process. The fans have been great. I'm glad we're winning games for them, (and) we're doing good for the city."

The Blazers had high hopes heading into this season, after upsetting the Clippers and testing the Warriors in last year's playoffs. Instead they have struggled. Wednesday's 107-85 loss in Charlotte, their third straight, dropped them to a season-low eight games under .500.

Portland, which will make its third stop on a four-game road trip Friday, shot 35.1 percent from the floor and 25.8 percent from 3-point range against the Hornets. While the Blazers got off to a better start than in their two previous games -- losses to Orlando and Washington -- they were outscored 31-20 in the second quarter and 28-13 in the fourth.

"I don't think our energy is good, man," center Mason Plumlee told the Oregonian. "Honestly, I think it is in spurts. We'll rally sometimes, but it's not sustained and that has to change."

Guard Damian Lillard agreed that the team's energy needs to be "more consistent."

"It's typical for every team," he told the Oregonian. "When things go well, that comes with energy. You're making shots, you're stopping the other team, you get energy from that because you feel good about what you're doing. I don't think we're giving ourselves enough situations to feel good about what we're doing often enough. Our energy drops because of that and teams take advantage of that."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raptors (28-14) at Hornets (21-21)

Date: January 20, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

There's no place like home whether it's somewhere in Kansas or Charlotte, and the Hornets were ecstatic to return to North Carolina on Wednesday after a horrid road trip that resulted in five losses and no wins.

Back at the Spectrum Center, Charlotte walloped the Portland Trail Blazers 107-85 to end their five-game skid. The Hornets will try to keep the momentum going when they play host to the Toronto Raptors (28-14) on Friday.

Kemba Walker led Charlotte (21-21) with 23 points against the Blazers, making four 3-pointers. Nicolas Batum contributed 17 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

"I almost forgot what it felt like to win," Walker said. "It's been a while, but it feels good, especially here at home. I thought we did a great job. We came out with great intensity from the beginning of the game and I thought we did a great job on both ends of the floor for 48 minutes. Defensively, we were on it, on our games. We were in the right spots all night communicating."

But the key to getting back on the winning track was the Hornets' defense, which held the Trail Blazers to 35 percent shooting from the field.

That defense, which had given up more than 100 points in eight straight games, will be severely tested by the Raptors (28-14). Toronto comes to Charlotte averaging 111 points per game -- third best in the league.

Last time out, however, the Raptors laid an egg in a 94-89 loss to Philadelphia. The Raptors had won 14 straight against the Sixers, their longest winning streak against one team since they beat the Bulls 16 times in a row from 1999-2002.

Game planning for the Raptors starts and ends with Toronto's talented All-Star backcourt duo of DeMar DeRozan (28.2 points per game) and Kyle Lowry (22.2 ppg). Against the 76ers, DeRozan did his usual damage (25 points), and Lowry dropped 24 points in the loss. However, Lowry's subpar overall performance opened the door, and Philadelphia took advantage.

Lowry went 5 of 13 from the floor and committed five of Toronto's 11 turnovers. An 82 percent free-throw shooter, he also missed five of 16 free throws.

"We missed so many shots," Lowry said. "We missed tons of shots. It happens. We lost the game."

The Raptors shot just 40 percent from the field and were outrebounded, which together is a recipe for disaster.

Toronto coach Dwane Casey credited the 76ers for playing tough, tenacious defense, but also said he was bit surprised the Raptors struggled on offense so much.

"They're a good team. They've been playing well. But we missed a lot of open shots," he said. "Fatigue doesn't make any difference. Those are shots we normally make."

If Friday night's game is anything like the first time the Raptors and Hornets met, Casey and Charlotte coach Steve Clifford can expect another grind-it-out game.

In that first meeting on Nov. 11, Walker outscored DeRozan 40-34. However, the Raptors came out ahead, 113-111. Toronto led by as many as 16 in the first half but had to rally from a 10-point deficit early in the fourth quarter to post the victory.

A big difference -- literally -- from that game to today is that the Raptors did not have the services of free agent acquisition forward/center Jared Sullinger -- but on Friday they will.

After missing the first 41 games after October surgery to implant a screw in his left foot, the 6-foot-9, 260-pound Sullinger was active for Toronto's game against the 76ers.

The wide-bodied Sullinger played only 14 minutes but showed flashes on defense while scoring eight points and grabbing three rebounds.

"I felt pretty good," he said. "I've still got a lot of work to do, but overall it felt great."

Sullinger could see his minutes increase quickly with forward Patrick Patterson's status in limbo. Patterson (7.1 points, 5.5 rebounds) missed his fourth straight game on Wednesday because of a balky knee, and he will be a game-time decision on Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bucks (20-21) at Magic (17-27)

Date: January 20, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

The anger and frustration was palpable in Nikola Vucevic's voice as he spoke to the media following the Orlando Magic's 118-98 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, wrapping up a difficult 1-5 road trip.

A season that started out with promise has quickly fallen apart. The Magic have lost nine of their past 11 games and sit at 17-27 and seemingly losing contact more and more with the pack.

The Magic's problems are many but they start with the simplest thing -- effort. And the team was searching for it and frustratingly not finding it after this latest loss.

"We don't play the right way," Vucevic told the Orlando Sentinel. "We can play as hard as we want -- as long as we keep playing like this, this is how it's going to be. It's hard for certain guys to keep giving effort when you don't do the right things out there. We take bad shots. We play selfish. It's embarrassing. We've been losing to everybody by 20. It's bad, man."

Frustration for the Magic has seemed to boil over. Three of the last six games have fit the description from Vucevic -- lifeless efforts where the Magic were blown out and beaten pretty handily.

For a team with playoff aspirations and needing to pull together some wins, this road trip went from hopeful to depressing very quickly.

The Magic have fallen to the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive rating (points per and points allowed per 100 possessions). Their play on both sides of the ball resembles a team focused more on the lottery than thinking about the playoffs.

That is not a place their opponent Friday at the Amway Center, the Milwaukee Bucks, expect to be. But quickly, the Bucks too are struggling and trying to find a grip to stay in the playoff race as the season passes the midpoint.

Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to astound. On Thursday, he was named an Eastern Conference All-Star starter. This year, he's averaging 23.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while shooting better than 50 percent.

Antetokounmpo scored 32 points with 11 rebounds, making 13 of 20 field goals, in the Bucks' 111-92 loss to the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. Antetokounmpo carried a heavy burden in that game as the Bucks struggled to keep pace with the fast-paced Rockets.

"What we've got to do as a team, not just in this game but in all the other games, we've got to play harder," Antetokounmpo told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "We're trying to build good habits over here and I think we're on the right path. We've got to click a little bit and make a step forward. We're chasing something right here. We're not playing for fun."

The Bucks are talking about the same things the Magic are talking about, even at 20-21 and tied for that final playoff spot.

Milwaukee has lost five of its past seven games and is also struggling to find some footing. The Bucks may be getting some good news as starting guard Khris Middleton soon may return from a hamstring injury that has prevented him from playing this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nets (8-33) at Pelicans (17-26)

Date: January 20, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- The New Jersey Nets have not won a game in 2017 and have lost their last 11 in a row.

The New Orleans Pelicans are responsible for one of those losses and they'll try to add another to the Nets' streak Friday night in the Smoothie King Center.

The Pelicans beat the Nets 104-95 on Jan. 12 in Brooklyn despite playing without All-Star forward Anthony Davis, who left a 118-98 victory against Orlando on Wednesday to have his left hand X-rayed but returned and should be ready to go against New Jersey this time.

The victory Wednesday started a season-long six-game homestand for New Orleans (17-26), which is hanging around the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Pelicans took advantage of a tired Magic team that was finishing a six-game road trip on which it won just one game.

"We came out really knowing that they are going home after this, and just going from the start and punching them in the mouth," guard Jrue Holiday said. "That just builds our confidence, especially for this homestand."

Now comes the team with the worst record in the NBA (8-33) before the homestand gets much tougher with Cleveland, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Washington coming to New Orleans.

"It's a big one," Pelicans guard Langston Galloway said of Friday's game. "We have to continue to take care of (homecourt advantage), and that's important, especially going forward. I think that this will be a great stretch for us."

Galloway scored 18 points off the bench against Orlando, making 5-of-8 field goals, including 4-of-7 3-pointers.

"I thought Langston did a good job of shooting the ball and getting himself in open space," New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry said.

Galloway has emerged as a consistent scoring threat off the bench. He has made at least three 3-pointers in nine of his last 21 games.

The Nets also have had a young player emerge of late as rookie No. 1 draft choice Caris LeVert had 14 points -- including Brooklyn's final 10 points in the third quarter -- on 6-of-8 shooting in a 119-109 home loss to Toronto on Monday.

In his last 10 games, LeVert is averaging 8.9 points and shooting 51 percent from the field.

"We want to bring him along intelligently, grow him," Nets coach Kenny Atkinson told the New York Post of LeVert. "He's pushing us for more minutes, and it's something we'll look at. But if he keeps playing like this, he's obviously demanding more minutes, more time."

Nets guard Jeremy Lin is expected to miss his 12th straight game because of a strained left hamstring. Forward Lucas Nogueira did not play in the second half Monday because of blurred vision.

"We all know it's a process, but obviously no one likes losing," LeVert said. "We all came from winning programs in college, so it's definitely something new to us. But it's something that we're not going to get used to. We're going to get better each and every day, and soon we'll be on the other side of things."

In the first meeting Tyreke Evans scored a season-high 29 points and Terrence Jones filled in nicely as Davis rested a bruised left hip and had 24 points and 12 rebounds. New Orleans finished the game on a 13-1 run.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bulls (21-22) at Hawks (24-18)

Date: January 20, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

ATLANTA -- The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls haven't squared off since Nov. 9, but they'll get very familiar with each other over the next six days.

The teams meet in Atlanta on Friday and then in Chicago next Wednesday.

The Hawks, who have a five-game winning streak against the Bulls, won 115-107 at home in the first meeting as part of a 9-2 start that included a victory the night before in Cleveland.

Atlanta (24-18) then went into a 1-10 funk before recovering to post a 14-6 mark, with nine wins in the past 11 games.

The Hawks, though, are coming off a 118-95 loss at Detroit on Wednesday in which they trailed 42-18 after the first quarter and were down 54-24 in the second.

"They punched us, punched us hard," said forward Paul Millsap, who was one of the few Hawks to play well with 21 points, eight rebounds and four assists. "We weren't able to come back from that."

"We just didn't come ready to play," said guard Tim Hardaway Jr., who scored 10 points.

Chicago (21-22) is also coming off a loss, but a much different kind of one. The Bulls haven't played since a 99-98 disappointment at home on Tuesday against Dallas when Wes Matthews won it for the Mavericks with a late 3-pointer.

"We were coming off one of our better performances of the year, but you've got to play 48 minutes in this league," said coach Fred Hoiberg, whose team had won a Memphis the previous day.

Jimmy Butler had just put the Bulls ahead before Matthews outdid him for heroics. After being sidelined by the flu last week, the forward had his third straight strong game with 24 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds.

"You've gotta maintain your body through the grind," said Butler, who lost about 10 pounds while ill. "That's what this job calls for. This is the dream that we wanted. Now that you have it, it's what you have to put up with."

Chicago reserve forward Nikola Mirotic returned against Dallas after missing four games with an illness, but the Bulls played without starter Taj Gibson, sidelined by left ankle soreness. Gibson could be available against the Hawks.

Mike Muscala, the first big man off the bench for Atlanta, has missed three games after spraining his left ankle against Boston last Friday. He is doubtful to play against Chicago.

Butler had 30 points and guard Dwyane Wade scored 25 for the Bulls in the first meeting for the Hawks, but Chicago received little else offensively.

The Bulls need another scorer, which brings attention to forward Doug McDermott. He had a career-best 31 points at Memphis, but scored just seven against Dallas as his inconsistency continued.

The Hawks outrebounded the Bulls 49-30 back in November, but were dominated on the boards in the loss at Detroit.

"I can't remember the last time 60-32," coach Mike Budenholzer said of the rebounding difference against the Pistons. "It's just indicative. They were just better than us."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (16-25) at Grizzlies (25-19)

Date: January 20, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

Wednesday night turned out to be disastrous for the Sacramento Kings.

Not only did they blow a 22-point lead in their loss to the Indiana Pacers, but the Kings lost forward Rudy Gray to a season-ending injury.

Sacramento (16-25) travels to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies (25-19) on Friday night at FedExForum.

Gay tore his Achilles tendon, CSN California has reported, when he fell hard after trying to make a baseline move late in the third quarter.

The loss of Gay hurts the Kings' already dimming playoff hopes. They lost six of their last seven to fall just out of playoff position.

Sacramento point guard Ty Lawson said the mood in the locker room after Wednesday's game was somber.

"Rudy's a good guy, and for him to go down like that this time of year, in this point of his life is kinda tough," Lawson told CSN California. "I'm probably one of the closest to him on the team. It kind of hurt my soul."

DeMarcus Cousins, who had 25 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists, vowed to soldier on.

"That's still our brother out there," Cousins told the Sacramento Bee, "so we have to finish this thing out for Rudy."

Cousins leads the team in scoring (28 points per game), rebounds (10.1) and assists (4.4).

This is the third of four meetings this season. Memphis, which won the most recent meeting on Dec. 31, is riding a two-game losing streak.

On Wednesday in the nation's capital, Memphis became the 13th straight victim of the Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.

Center Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies leading scorer, had 28 points but Washington's Otto Porter Jr. made 9 of 12 shots, including six 3-pointers, in the Wizards' 104-101 victory. Porter and point guard John Wall led Washington with 25 points each.

After the loss, in which the Grizzlies trailed 66-51 at halftime, Memphis coach David Fizdale called out his defense.

"You can't spot a team (19) points and think that every time you're going to come back and win the game," Fizdale said. "It's the same thing I've been stressing to our guys over the last month -- consistent effort and focus. We didn't decide to do that until the second half. There were no adjustments to the schemes. We played harder and with more focus."

Gasol emphasized the importance of stopping opponents.

"Defense," Gasol said. "Sixty-six points in the first half, that's too many points. If we don't get it defensively, it's going to be hard for us.

"We don't have the firepower to match 66 points in two halves. We're not going to be a 130-120 game -- those aren't the games that we're going to win consistently. We have to do a better job on that."

For Sacramento, Friday marks the beginning of an eight-game road trip. The Kings don't return home until Feb. 3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Warriors (36-6) at Rockets (33-12)

Date: January 20, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- At their best, the Golden State Warriors can evoke the image of a buzz saw ripping through an opponent with so much verve that even quality opponents seem helpless in their wake.

After blitzing the reigning league champion Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points on Monday, the Warriors turned a 37-point third quarter into a 121-100 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder two nights later.

Golden State capped what was a three-week stay in Northern California with a 9-1 record, dropping one of nine games at Oracle Arena while beating the Sacramento Kings on the road on Jan. 8.

On Friday night, the Warriors (36-6) will face the Rockets (33-12) at Toyota Center. Houston is one of just three teams to defeat the Warriors in Oakland this season.

Given its recent run of dominance, Golden State seems set for revenge.

"I still don't think we've really reached our peak," Warriors forward Draymond Green said. "I don't think that's it."

The Warriors pace the league in offensive rating (113.4) and net rating (12.3), effective field goal percentage (56.8) and assists percentage (71.9). Defensively they rank first in steals (9.5) and blocks (6.3) per game while leading the NBA in defensive rating (101.1).

As presently constructed, the Warriors remain an unstoppable force.

Before losing veteran forward David West to a non-displaced left thumb fracture against the Thunder, Golden State was the picture of health.

West will be sidelined for at least two weeks before being re-evaluated. He has been helpful but not essential, and after the Warriors ripped the Cavaliers in their rematch following their Christmas Day loss in Cleveland, the Rockets should be on alert.

Houston toppled Golden State in double overtime 132-127 on Dec. 1.

The Rockets steadied themselves with their 111-92 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. Houston had lost three of four games previously, including back-to-back losses for the first time this season.

Injuries have caught up with the Rockets, with center Clint Capela returning on Tuesday from a month-long absence (leg) and guard Eric Gordon attempting to settle in after missing two games with a sprained left big toe.

Forward Ryan Anderson missed consecutive games against the Heat and Bucks with the flu but is expected to return on Friday night in what amounts to a showdown between contenders.

"We know that we put ourselves in a hole (Monday) night by losing and they know it and they had to dig a little deeper, and they did," Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni said. "Just a good win to get us out of our little funk without Ryan, and hopefully we will get him back.

"Obviously, we get a big test on Friday, but we're ready to see how good we are."

The Warriors offer another opponent in a grueling stretch of games for Houston.

The Rockets will play their fourth contest in five nights on Saturday in Memphis, the first game of their third five-game road trip already this season. Houston will travel to Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia and Indiana before returning home to host the Kings on the final day of January.

"We know that these next two or three weeks are going to be tough for us," Rockets guard James Harden said. "It's a good test."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jazz (27-16) at Mavericks (14-28)

Date: January 20, 2017 8:30 PM EDT

The Utah Jazz arrive in Dallas the hot team. But surprisingly the Mavericks aren't far behind.

The Jazz (27-16) are on a season-high-tying four-game winning streak going into Friday night's clash at American Airlines Center. It's the fourth time this season that Utah has captured at four games in a row.

Getting to five might not be that easy against the Mavericks, despite their 14-28 record. Dallas has climbed out of the Western Conference cellar by winning eight of its last 16 games.

The Mavs had a season-high three-game winning streak snapped Thursday night at Miami. Dallas faltered down the stretch in a 99-95 loss despite getting 19 points from Dirk Nowitzki.

"It was a really tough stretch for us," Nowitzki said of the fourth-quarter collapse. "We went from being up a couple to down seven or eight and then we put the starters back in or the other unit, so that was a bad stretch."

The Mavericks do catch a break with Rodney Hood out. The Jazz shooting guard is traveling to Dallas, but won't suit up as he continues to recover from a bone bruise and hyperextended right knee.

Hood drained a game-winning 3-pointer last month to give Utah a 103-100 victory over Dallas.

His absence likely means a second straight start for Joe Ingles.

"Coming in, I didn't think I would be playing this much," the third-year swingman told The Salt Lake Tribune. "I've been lucky enough to play when I've got those opportunities."

Ingles had 11 points and five assists in Monday's 106-101 win over Phoenix.

"I've got a lot of confidence in him," Utah coach Quin Snyder said. "That comes from a very, very transparent relationship. I've said hard things to him about what I think he needs to do as a player. ... As a result, I think there's a trust there. I can tell him when I think he's made a mistake."

The Mavericks and Nowitzki do have to deal with Rudy Gobert. Dallas is without Andrew Bogut (hamstring strain) but has found success with Nowitzki starting at center in a small lineup that includes shooting guard Seth Curry.

Gobert, however, is a load down low. The 7-foot-1 Frenchman had 18 points, 17 rebounds and four blocks against the Suns. He has had seven games already this season with at least 15 points and 15 boards.

In addition to Gobert, Jazz leading scorer and possible All-Star reserve Gordon Hayward figures to be a tough matchup. Expect the Mavs to try to contain Hayward with Wesley Matthews.

"I think he's one of the best perimeter defenders we have in this league," Nowitzki said. "When perimeter defense is being talked about, I don't think he's in the discussion enough. The job he's doing this year is incredible."

The Jazz have already beaten the Mavericks twice this season, both times in Salt Lake City. Besides the win last month, George Hill scored 25 in a 97-81 victory in early November.

Deron Williams is averaging 15.0 points and 8.0 assists this season against his former team, and Harrison Barnes is scoring 17.5 points per game against the Jazz.

Utah has won four of the last six meetings overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 20, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Have we seen the last of the Los Angeles Clippers as Western Conference contenders? As currently constructed, I believe we have. I really would have liked to have seen what this team could do in the playoffs with everyone healthy at once, but it never seemed to work out that way. The latest injury to hit the team was All-Star point guard Chris Paul, in the midst of one of his best seasons, undergoing thumb surgery on Wednesday following a Monday injury. He's going to miss 6-8 weeks. Of course the team is already without All-Star forward Blake Griffin. The Clips have been very good with Paul and without Griffin over the years but not the other way around -- and then terrible sans both. During Paul's six-year tenure in L.A., the Clippers are 264-120 (.688) when he suits up and 27-26 (.509) when he doesn't. Griffin, who should be back in a week or two, and Paul certainly should be healthy for the playoffs (knock on wood), but the problem now is the Clips have no shot at the West's No. 2 or No. 3 seed and the chance to avoid Golden State until the conference finals. Now they could slide down to No. 7 and have to open at San Antonio. The Clippers aren't winning that series. Paul, Griffin and J.J. Redick all are free agents next summer. Coach Doc Rivers decided to keep the band together for one last run. I don't think it's going to work out. L.A. is now a +2000 long shot to win its first Western Conference title.

Trail Blazers at 76ers (+1, 210)

Portland dropped a third in a row Wednesday, 107-85 in Charlotte. The Blazers were down seven entering the fourth. Damian Lillard scored 21 points and C.J. McCollum had 18 for Portland, which got only 22 bench points. Philadelphia won for the seventh time in nine games Wednesday, a 94-89 upset of Toronto. Joel Embiid continues to amaze with 26 points and nine rebounds in 27 minutes. Jahlil Okafor never got off the bench; the Blazers have been rumored as a trade partner for him. First meeting of the season between Portland and Philadelphia. They split last year, each winning at home.

Key trends: The Blazers are 1-4 against the spread in the past five meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Philly's past seven at home.

Early lean: 76ers and under.

Raptors at Hornets ( -1.5, 216)

Toronto had a four-game winning streak end Wednesday, losing by five in Philadelphia in the second of a back-to-back. DeMar DeRozan scored 25 and Kyle Lowry had 24 points. I actually took the Sixers and the points as I thought one of those two might sit, and Coach Dwane Casey did consider doing so on DeRozan. Forward DeMarre Carroll left with a neck injury in the third quarter, but fellow forward Jared Sullinger made his season debut off foot surgery. Charlotte returned home from a winless five-game road trip and beat Portland by 22 on Wednesday. Kemba Walker had 23 points and Roy Hibbert, who sometimes doesn't even play, had a season-high 16 points. Charlotte lost the first meeting with Toronto 113-111 at home on Nov. 11. The Hornets led by five with four minutes left.

Key trends: The Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 in Charlotte. The over is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Hornets and over.

Bucks at Magic (+2, 209.5)

Milwaukee dropped a third in a row with a 111-92 loss in Houston on Wednesday. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 32 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and three blocks. However, the Bucks scored just 39 first-half points. Orlando is also on a three-game skid following a 118-98 loss in New Orleans on Wednesday to complete a six-game trip. The Magic played their third straight game without leading scorer Evan Fournier, who is out with a bruised right heel. Jodie Meeks, who started in place of Fournier, left with a dislocated right thumb in the second half. Milwaukee is 2-0 vs. Orlando this season, but the Magic have won 19 of the last 21 meetings at home.

Key trends: The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 in Orlando. The Magic are just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The under is 7-2 in the Magic's past nine on Friday.

Early lean: Magic and under.

Kings at Grizzlies (-6.5, 200.5)

Sacramento completed a seven-game homestand at 1-6 with a 106-100 loss to Indiana on Wednesday and lost Rudy Gay to a season-ending injury. I'll talk more about that in Saturday's Opening Line Report. The Kings led the Pacers by 22 in the first half. DeMarcus Cousins had 25 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for his fifth career triple-double. Memphis lost a second consecutive game Wednesday, 104-101 in Washington. Marc Gasol led Memphis with 28 points. This begins an eight-game trip for Sacramento. The Kings ended a 12-game losing streak at Memphis with a 96-92 victory there on Dec. 16.

Key trends: The Kings are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 10-3 in the past 13.

Early lean: Grizzlies and under.

Nets at Pelicans (TBA)

Brooklyn lost its 11th in a row Tuesday, 119-109 at home vs. Toronto. Brook Lopez had 28 points for the Nets. Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson scored 14 apiece. Jeremy Lin was out again with his hamstring injury, and you won't see him here. New Orleans ended a two-game losing streak with a 118-98 home win over Orlando on Wednesday. Anthony Davis was questionable, left for a little bit after hurting his hand but came back and finished with 21 points and 15 rebounds. It's now clear that guy is never going to play even 70 regular-season games in his career. Too brittle but so talented. New Orleans won the first meeting with Brooklyn 105-103 on Jan. 12 despite Davis missing the game.

Key trends: The Nets are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 8-2 in the Pelicans' past 10.

Early lean: Make sure Davis is playing.

Warriors at Rockets (TBA)

First of an ESPN doubleheader. Golden State won its fifth in a row Wednesday, 121-100 over Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant had a season-high 40 points to go with 12 rebounds as he was clearly fired up to face Russell Westbrook again. Klay Thompson was iffy due to a personal matter but played and had 14 points. Zaza Pachulia was called for a flagrant foul on Westbrook but shouldn't be facing suspension. Houston played terribly in Miami on Tuesday but bounced back with a 19-point home win over Milwaukee on Wednesday behind 38 points, eight assists and six rebounds from James Harden. Ryan Anderson missed his second in a row due to an illness. Houston won the first meeting with Golden State 132-127 in double OT on Dec. 1 in one of the season's best games. The Warriors have won four in a row in Houston, though.

Key trends: The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their past eight in Houston. The over is 7-1 in the Rockets' past eight vs. the West.

Early lean: Like Houston here as it's been an emotional week thus far for the Dubs with games vs. the Cavs and OKC so they could be flat.

Bulls at Hawks (-4.5, 202.5)

Chicago had a two-game winning streak end in a 99-98 home loss to Dallas on Tuesday. The Bulls gave up a late 3-pointer and then Dwyane Wade, not Jimmy Butler, took the final shot for Chicago and missed on his 35th birthday. Butler finished with 24 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds. Taj Gibson was out with a sore ankle. Atlanta had its two-game winning streak end Wednesday in a 118-95 loss in Detroit. The Hawks were down 42-18 after a quarter and that was that. Atlanta won the first meeting with Chicago 115-107 and has taken five in a row in the series.

Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 5-1 in Chicago's past six overall.

Early lean: Hawks and under.

Jazz at Mavericks (TBA)

Utah has been off since extending its winning streak to four on Monday with a 106-101 victory in Phoenix. Joe Johnson scored 10 of his 15 points in the fourth quarter, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with 49.8 seconds to play. Utah scored the game's final seven points. Rudy Gobert had 18 points and 17 rebounds. Rodney Hood was out with a knee injury and unlikely here. Dallas was in Miami on Thursday night most likely without Andrew Bogut again. He certainly wouldn't play both back-to-backs even if in there vs. the Heat. Dirk Nowitzki also might sit one of the two. Utah is 2-0 vs. Dallas this season, with both in Salt Lake City.

Key trends: The Jazz are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five in Dallas. The under is 5-2 in the Mavs' past seven at home.

Early lean: Jazz and under regardless.

Pacers at Lakers (+3.5 220)

Second ESPN game. Indiana won a second straight Wednesday, 106-100 in Sacramento, outscoring the Kings 65-40 in the second half. Jeff Teague had 22 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds in Nate McMillan's 500th career win as a head coach. Only three other active coaches -- Gregg Popovich, Doc Rivers and Rick Carlisle -- have 500 or more victories. L.A. has lost five in a row following a 127-121 defeat at home vs. Denver on Tuesday. The Lakers did nearly rally from a 17-point fourth-quarter hole. Luol Deng missed the game with a sprained right wrist and is out indefinitely. Indiana beat the Lakers 115-108 on Nov. 1 and has taken the past three in the series.

Key trends: The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 5-2 in the Lakers' past seven after a loss.

Early lean: Lakers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Friday’s games

76ers won seven of last nine games, winning/covering last four at home. Sixers are 13-6 as home underdogs. Five of their last six games stayed under total. Trailblazers lost 11 of last 13 road games; they’re 4-2 as road favorites. Over is 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Portland won three of last four games with Philly; underdogs covered four of last five series games- teams split last four played here (over 3-1).

Toronto won four of its last five games, but lost five of last seven on road; they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight road games. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Hornets lost five of last six games, but won seven of last eight at home (6-2 vs spread). Four of last five Charlotte games stayed under. Raptors won five of last six games with Charlotte; they lost three of last five visits here. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Milwaukee lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-1 vs spread as road favorites. Four of their last five games went over total. Magic lost seven of last eight games, are 1-8 vs spread as home underdogs; last four Orlando games went over the total. Bucks won four of last five games with Orlando; teams split last four series games played here. Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

Nets lost their last 11 games (3-8 vs spread); they’re 7-9-1 as road underdogs. Last three Brooklyn games went over. New Orleans won five of last six home games; they’re 6-9 as home favorites. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Pelicans won their last six games with Brooklyn; Nets lost by 9 at home to New Orleans eight days ago. Brooklyn lost last three visits here, by 2-6-5 points; dogs covered five of last six series games. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Bulls lost eight of last ten road games but covered three of last four; they’re 9-9 as road underdogs. Last three Chicago games went over. Atlanta won nine of last 11 games, is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite. Last three Hawk games went over. Hawks won seven of last eight games with Chicago, which lost last four visits here (0-4 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under.

Sacramento lost six of last seven games and now Rudy Gay is out for year; Kings covered three of last four road games, are 7-9 as road underdogs. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Grizzlies lost three of last four games, are 5-6 as home favorites. Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Memphis won five of last six games with Sacramento; under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Kings lost four of last five visits here (2-3 vs spread).

Golden State won its last five game (4-1 vs spread), beating Cavs/Thunder in last two games; Warriors are 2-6 in last eight games as a road favorite. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Houston lost three of last five games; they’re 13-2 in last 15 home games, 0-1 as home dogs. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Warriors won eight of last ten games with Houston; they won three of last four visits here (3-1 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under.

Utah won its last four games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five road games (2-3 SU). Five of his last seven games stayed under. Mavericks won three of last four games; they’re 5-6 SU in last 11 home games. Five of their last seven games stayed under the total. Jazz won three of last four games with Dallas, but lost three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games went over.

Pacers won seven of last eight games (only loss was in London); they’re 1-4 as road favorites. Seven of their last nine games went over total. Lakers lost last five games; they split last ten home games, are 7-8 as home dogs. Four of their last six games stayed under. Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Indiana; over is 4-2 in last six series games. Pacers won four of last five visits here (3-1-1 vs spread)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Snapshot
By Joe Nelson

Not even a third of the way into the Big Ten season and every team has a loss in what looks like a balanced group of teams in a league that appears a bit down from its normal national stature. 0-6 Rutgers appears to be at the bottom to stay but the other 13 teams could shuffle around quite a bit in the coming weeks with 10 teams currently separated by just two games in the middle of the standings.

The Big Ten currently projects to have as many as eight NCAA Tournament teams but none of those teams would currently be top four seeds in the field and only three teams currently crack the current Top 25 polls, all outside of the top 15. Here is a look at those eight teams leading the conference as we approach late January.

Favorite – Wisconsin (4-1 S/U, 3-2 ATS): The Badger program has continued a high level of success in Greg Gard’s first full season with a 15-3 overall record and the lone conference loss came in a competitive game at Purdue right after the team picked up a key road win at Indiana. Wisconsin’s track record in recent years carries some weight for a veteran group that returned all the key contributors from last season’s Sweet 16 team. This year’s non-conference slate didn’t feature any high end wins and right now, Wisconsin doesn’t have a win over a team that would be considered in the nation’s top 25. The Badgers face Maryland and Michigan State just once each and they won’t have to play Purdue again as 14-4 looks pretty realistic for this team and in a balanced league that should be enough to be at the top.

Contender – Purdue (4-2 S/U, 3-3 ATS): The two losses for Purdue have been a bit puzzling in league play, blowing a big lead and falling at home in overtime vs. Minnesota and then losing on the road against a very young Iowa squad. The non-conference losses for Purdue came vs. Villanova and Louisville in very close games with Purdue also beating Notre Dame in December as the Boilermakers are on pace for a fine season looking to redeem last season’s early upset loss in the NCAA Tournament. Two early losses in Big Ten play may not be all that damaging for Purdue as the remaining Big Ten schedule is favorable. Purdue won’t play either of the teams they lost to again and they will have the tiebreaker over Wisconsin winning the lone meeting this season. Four games ahead with Indiana and Michigan State will likely determine whether Purdue claims the conference title or is a runner-up.

Overachiever – Maryland (4-1 S/U, 4-1 ATS): The Terrapins were supposed to be a nationally elite squad last season with a star-studded starting five. Twenty-seven wins and a Sweet 16 run wasn’t a bad season but it was a mild disappointment for a team that started the season ranked in the top 5. This year’s team has matched last season’s 16-2 start as junior guard Melo Trimble leads a really young squad that has also had to play without two contributors in the Big Ten season due to injuries. Maryland’s only loss came at home and outside of the three-point win over Indiana they haven’t faced the top teams in the conference. Working in Maryland’s favor is a schedule that includes just one meeting each with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, but the 4-1 ATS mark could erode in the coming weeks for a team that has squeaked out nine of 16 wins by seven or fewer points.

Sleeper – Northwestern (4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS): The Wildcats have never made the NCAA Tournament and while right now they would probably get in, there is a lot of work to be done. The 4-2 Big Ten start lacks high end wins and non-conference wins over Texas, Wake Forest, and Dayton aren’t looking quite as strong at this point in the season. Northwestern is still a threat to be part of the Big Ten race however as the 4-2 start has come with four road games already taken care of, getting three wins. The Wildcats do draw two games with Purdue ahead but they will face Wisconsin and Maryland just once each and they won’t have to face Michigan State or Minnesota again. A double-digit conference win season looks likely with the remaining path and this is a year where 12-6 might realistically be enough to be in serious contention in the Big Ten if there are some upsets at the top.

Bubble Squad – Minnesota (3-3 S/U, 3-3 ATS): Many were surprised that Richard Pitino survived last season’s ugly 8-23 season that featured only two Big Ten wins. The Gophers were much more competitive than the record showed however with nine conference losses by single-digits. Minnesota impressed in the non-conference schedule this fall with the only loss coming at Florida State and a 3-1 start in Big Ten play with the only loss in overtime announced the Gophers as contenders. After entering the Top 25, the Gophers lost back-to-back road games at Michigan State and at Penn State and they have many tough remaining games. Minnesota won’t have to face Purdue or Northwestern again, but two meetings each with Wisconsin and Maryland remain. The Gophers beat a number of decent, but not great teams in the non-conference campaign as a NCAA Tournament berth will come down to putting together a winning season in the Big Ten.

Underachiever – Indiana (2-3 S/U, 2-3 ATS): The good news for Indiana is that the overtime loss to Fort Wayne from November might be a top 100 loss by season’s end as the Mastadons look like a contender in the Summit League. Indiana’s wins over Kansas and North Carolina will also continue to carry a ton of weight as even in a down season for the Big Ten Indiana’s NCAA Tournament candidacy will still be alive and well as long as they can finish with a .500 conference season. Right now that looks somewhat challenging with two home losses and one of the tougher remaining conference schedules. Indiana still draws Purdue twice while still facing tough road games at Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio State. The Hoosiers will close the season with road games in four of the final five as the lousy start has come with four of five conference games at Assembly Hall. The talent and offensive potential for Indiana is there and the Hoosiers are capable of a great run the rest of the way but that type of consistency hasn’t been the norm under Tom Crean.

Enigma – Michigan State (4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS): The Spartans played a brutally tough non-conference schedule and lost four of the first eight games of the season. Those defeats all came against Top 25 caliber teams but three of the four weren’t that competitive and Michigan State also lost at home to Northeastern in December with only a win over Wichita State standing out on the non-conference resume. Injuries and inexperience were factors and many trust Tom Izzo’s track record to put Michigan State back in Big Ten contention as usual. It looked that way with a 3-0 league start but Michigan State has since lost to Penn State and Ohio State. The Spartans haven’t played Indiana, Purdue, or Wisconsin yet and the statistics feature alarming numbers in turnovers and free throw shooting very uncharacteristic of Izzo squads. The next month figures to feature a bunch of toss-up type of games for the Spartans as this year’s team could go either way.

Dark Horse – Michigan (2-4 S/U, 1-5 ATS): The Wolverines have been a disappointment with a veteran squad that is now just 12-7 on the season with a tough start in Big Ten play. Michigan played right with Wisconsin on the road this week and has the potential for a strong finish with the typical strengths of John Beilein teams featuring a deliberate pace but strong shooting and ball control. Michigan has been burned by opponents shooting nearly 43 percent on 3-points shots this season and while the Wolverines have a difficult remaining schedule they are capable of beating anyone. The non-conference schedule is proving to be stronger than expected with teams like Marquette, South Carolina, and UCLA exceeding expectations and the opportunity to add quality wins in Big Ten play will be there with upcoming tests against Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue as a run back to the NCAA Tournament is possible.

Big Ten ATS Notes: Home underdogs in Big Ten play are currently 6-3 S/U and 7-2 ATS counting Penn State’s Palestra win over Michigan State. There have been eight outright wins from road underdogs in league play. Overall, Northwestern has been the league’s best ATS performer at 11-5 ATS with Michigan the worst at 5-11 ATS. Indiana won the Big Ten last season with a 15-3 regular season record going 10-8 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball's best teams are also its best bets... besides Kansas
By JASON LOGAN

College basketball bettors have got what they’ve expected from the Top 10 teams in the nation this season. That is, from every one of those elite programs besides Kansas.

The Jayhawks are the only team ranked inside the AP Top 10 that isn’t covering the spread at least 58 percent of the time. Kansas is 17-1 SU and sits No. 2 in the AP poll – and is actually No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches poll. However, Bill Self’s kids have managed to cover the spread in only six of their 16 lined games, lugging a costly 6-10 ATS record.

Kansas has little trouble scoring, averaging 85.8 points per game which sits 14th most in the country. The Jayhawks are shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from beyond the 3-point arc – both of which rank 8th. On the defensive end, however, KU is 141st in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.4 points to opponents. That’s an average margin of victory of +15.3 versus an average closing spread of -13.72.

The Jayhawks have been favorites of -15.5 or more in seven of their games this season. There has been a drop off in second-half production, with the margin dipping from +8.8 in the first half to +6.7 points in the final 20 minutes. Looking at KU's recent bet graphs (exclusive to Covers.com) for games in which it failed to cover the spread, and rarely did Kansas actually play well enough to cover the lofty lines at any point during those 40 minutes.

Kansas is undefeated in its first six Big 12 conference games, but is only 2-4 ATS in those contests after going 67-57-4 ATS inside the Big 12 in the last eight years. And, KU is 2-5 ATS inside Allen Fieldhouse - one of the best home-court advantages in sports - after posting a 54-42-2 ATS record at home since 2010.

Overall, the AP poll’s Top 10 teams in the country have a combined mark of 102-59-1 ATS as of Wednesday (169-14 SU), covering the spread 63 percent of the time. Taking KU out of that equation improves that collective record to 96-49-1 ATS – a 66 percent winner if you blindly bet on those Top 10 teams so far this season.

The best bet among the Top 10 are the No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs, who boast a 12-2 ATS record and are unbeaten at 17-0 SU. Behind the Zags in terms of ATS success among those Top-10 programs are No. 7 Creighton (13-4 ATS), No. 10 Florida State (11-5 ATS) and defending champ No. 1 Villanova (12-6 ATS).

Here’s a full list of the Top 10 AP poll programs and their SU/ATS records:

Villanova 18-1 SU, 12-6 ATS
Kansas 17-1 SU, 6-10 ATS
UCLA 18-1 SU, 11-8 ATS
Gonzaga 17-0, 12-2 ATS
Kentucky 16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS
Baylor 17-1 SU, 8-5 ATS
Creighton 18-1 SU, 13-4 ATS
West Virginia 15-2 SU, 7-5 ATS
North Carolina 17-3 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Florida State 16-2 SU, 11-5 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Friday’s games

Akron won its last eight games, is 5-0 in MAC, with home wins by 5-7-15 points. Bobcats are shooting 58.3% inside arc, 39.5% outside arc in MAC games. Eastern Michigan won five of its last six games, winning MAC road games, at Ohio/Bowling Green. Eagles won last two games by 4-6 points. EMU has 44.2% eFG% in MAC games, best in league so far. Akron won seven of last eight games with EMU, winning last three visits here, by 30-4-4 points. MAC single digit home favorites are 10-7 vs spread this season.

Oakland lost its last two games (both at home) after starting season 14-3; Grizzlies are 2-0 on Horizon road, winning at UIC/Valpo by 1-12 points. Oakland is shooting only 26.7% on arc in league games. Northern Kentucky is 3-3 in Horizon, beating Cleveland St/Youngstown St in their two home games; they’re shooting 39.9% on arc in Horizon play, best in league. Norse lost 76-65 at Oakland New Year’s Eve; game was tied at half; teams split pair of games LY, with Oakland winning 85-74 in their visit here. Horizon road favorites are 6-2 vs spread.

Wright State won six of last seven games with Detroit, winning first meeting this year 85-72 in Motor City Dec 31- Raiders made 12-21 on arc in that game. Titans lost last three visits here, by 4-1-13 points. Detroit scored 93-87 points in winning its last two games after a 2-14 start; Titans are 2-4 in Horizon, 1-2 on road, with losses by 14-7 points. Wright State is 3-3 in Horizon, 1-1 at home, losing by 5 to Youngstown. Raiders are turning ball over 22% of time in league, too much for a veteran team. Horizon home favorites of 7+ points are 6-4 vs spread.

Yale won six of last eight D-I games; they split Penn/Princeton trip last week. Bulldogs have mostly a new team from LY’s league champs; they’re shooting 39% on arc (#32)- they’re 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Brown lost three of last four games, with losses by 3-2-31 points; they’re best team in country at getting to foul line but do turn ball over 20.9% of time while playing pace #50. Yale is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Brown, winning last four, three by 9+ points. Bulldogs won last two visits here, by 18-24 points.

Cleveland State upset Oakland last game, snapping 4-game skid; Vikings are just 2-5 in league play, 1-2 on road, with losses by 4-8 points. Milwaukee lost nine of last ten games, is 1-5 in Horizon, with only win over Northern Kentucky- their home loss was by 3 to Wright State. Cleveland beat Milwaukee 62-53 at home New Year’s Eve; game was only 25-16 at half. Win snapped Vikings’ 3-game skid vs Milwaukee, which won last two series games here by 6-34 points. Horizon home favorites of 3 or less points are 0-5 vs spread.

Green Bay won first meeting 90-77 at Youngstown Dec 31; they’ve won eight of last nine games with Youngstown State, winning last 14 games played here, last three all by 15+ points. Phoenix won six of its last seven games; they’re 3-0 at home in Horizon, winning by 6-9-17 points. Green Bay is playing #9 pace in country. Youngstown lost its last three games, by 16-3-16 points; they are 1-2 on Horizon road, losing by 13-16 points with an upset over Wright State. Double digit favorites are against the spread 2-2 in Horizon League this season.

Home side won five of last six Fairfield-Iona games; Stags lost last nine visits to New Rochelle, last two by 16-24 points, but Fairfield beat Iona 93-87 in first meeting this season Jan 2, making 14-34 on arc. Stags lost last three games overall, all at home, by 14-9-14 points; Fairfield is 2-1 on MAAC road, losing by 7 at Siena, winning at Rider/Manhattan. Iona is 4-4 in MAAC, 2-1 at home, with only loss to Niagara. Gaels haven’t won consecutive games since before Christmas. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 3-8 against the spread.

Canisius is 5-3 in MAAC; they’re 0-3 vs Iona/Monmouth, 5-0 vs everyone else. Griffins force turnovers 20.9% of time in MAAC games but have worst eFG% defense in league. Canisius is 5-2 in MAAC games with Quinnipiac; road team won four of the seven games. Griffins won last two visits here, by 2-10 points. Four of last five series games were decided by 6 or less points. Bobcats are 4-4 in MAAC, 3-1 at home, with only home loss to Monmouth. Quinnipiac is rebounding 36% of its own missed shots. MAAC road favorites of 4 or less points are 4-2.

Monmouth survived Buffalo trip last weekend, has won four games in row; Hawks are 3-1 at home in MAAC, winning by 6-18-7 points, with only loss to Rider. Manhattan is 2-6 in MAAC, 0-3 on road, with losses by 14-2-9 points. Jaspers are turning ball over 18.3% of time in league games, way better than their non-conf %age. Monmouth is holding foes to 40.3% inside the arc. Jaspers shoot only 31.2% on arc. Manhattan is 5-1 in MAAC games with Monmouth, losing 79-70 here LY. Double digit favorites are 2-4 in MAAC games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

The Sunshine Millions is not as big as it used to be, but we still have five stakes on Saturday’s card highlighted by the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic which drew a field of eight runners.

The 12-race card kicks off at noon eastern and will be a good tune up for the big day next Saturday which features the inaugural running of the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1).

The Classic tomorrow is led by the Edward Plesa trained Awesome Slew, who comes in off a third-place finish in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) in his last outing. The colt won the Smarty Jones (G3) at Parx Racing back in September.

Mark Casse sends out Piloting, who was the runner up in the Millions Classic Preview in his last outing, earning a career top speed figure in the outing.

The Classic is the final race on the card. The other stakes on the card are the $100,000 Turf, $100,000 Sprint, $100,000 Distaff, and $100,000 Filly & Mare Turf.

The weather looks perfect but it won’t be as good in New Orleans for the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

A field of 12 will line up led by Louisiana Juvenile winner Saint’s Fan, Street Sense third place finisher Guest Suite and Springboard Mile runner up Totality.

I will have selections for the Lecomte in tomorrow’s column.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (12:35 ET)
#6 Heavenly Lucky 3-1
#3 Vintners Special 9-5
#7 Hana's Dream 6-1
#2 Motion's First 4-1

Analysis: Heavenly Lucky stalked the early pace while saving ground, angled out and finished up well while no match for a nine-length winner in a runner up finish. The filly makes her third start off the layoff here for the Zito barn that is having a really good meeting, 5 for 24 at the meeting. The $85,000 purchase is by Lookin At Lucky out of a Polish Numbers mare that has dropped four winners, top earner stakes winner Ventana ($383,106).

Vintners Special is back on dirt here after a couple of seventh place finishes on turf versus tougher. She ran well in her debut on dirt way back in Oct. of '15. She catches an easier group here but her price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 2,3,6,7
TRI: 3,6 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:32 ET)
#4 Tu Exageres 3-1
#1 Difference Maker 5-2
#2 Snicker 4-1
#7 Alexander David 6-1

Analysis: Tu Exageres makes his debut for the Clement barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The gelding is by Elusive Quality out of a Yes It's True mare that has dropped three winners including one turf winner, top earner stakes winner Doctor Chit ($196,589). A couple of bullet works on the morning tab at Payson.

Difference Maker tracked the early pace, came up the inside with a good move and finished up well in a runner up finish last out, beaten two lengths in his first start off an 11-month layoff. The Nicks trainee showed some promise on dirt in his first two career starts. Nicks hits at a 26% clip with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R2: #4 Ring in the Nite 8-1
R3: #1 Vision Perfect 8-1
R5: #4 Weapons Grade 8-1
R6: #4 Final Edition 10-1
R8: #8 Sassy Astray 10-1
R10: #7 Mr. Bell 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$16000 - NW $9,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $16,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 IN SECRET 4/1
# 7 ADVERSITY 7/2
# 2 AMITYVILLE LINDY 8/1

Hard not to like IN SECRET as the top pick here. Take a look at this fine animal's avg speed rating of 87 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very good wager. Had one of the most favorable speed ratings of the group of animals in his last race. Must use in your wagers. Win statistic for this driver-handler is a sparkling 24 percent - solid probability. ADVERSITY - Horoscope said take a chance today, this harness racer is as good as any to take a shot with. AMITYVILLE LINDY - Could be considered in this contest if only for the good speed fig recorded in the most recent outing. Selectors at Woodbine will notice this entrant's pace statistics are among the most solid in the grouping.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 10:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$18000 - F& M NON-WINNERS OF $15,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $150,000 IN 2016/17 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 CHEYENNE ROBIN 3/1
# 3 FOR THE LADIES N 7/2
# 4 VILLAGE JESSICA 7/1

CHEYENNE ROBIN sure does look ready to take the whole enchilada. She's performing in fine form, recording substantial speed ratings. An excellent choice. A respectable class horse cannot be passed over. With an avg class figure of 91 all signs look good for this one. FOR THE LADIES N - The wagering panel always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning stat is evidence of that. Could clearly dominate this field of starters given the 87 TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in her most recent contest. VILLAGE JESSICA - Hands down the best position at Yonkers Raceway is the 4. The win clip is very good. Could surely best this field given the 86 speed rating recorded in her most recent contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 56

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND NO GANADORES A 1,100 METROS DESDE 20 ENERO 2016. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 6 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 20, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 20, 2016 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 SELECCION 5/2

# 4 ANTILLANA 3/1

# 6 MISS WHATSAPP 10/1

I think SELECCION is a decent choice. This mare has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. With a reliable 53 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Lately Ramirez has been sizzling which may give the edge to this mare. ANTILLANA - This mare with Garcia in the irons makes her a key contender. Could beat this group of animals given the 55 speed figure garnered in her last outing. MISS WHATSAPP - The speed figure of 52 from her most recent race looks very good in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 93

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE JANUARY 20, 2016. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 SWANKY PRINCESS 6/1

# 7 SAMSONIAN 5/2

# 2 CAROLINA JASMINE 9/2

SWANKY PRINCESS looks to be a very strong contender. Must be given a chance based on the strong speed figure put up in the last affair. SAMSONIAN - Risk takers get an edge when playing this handler in a dirt sprint race. Garnered a quite good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. CAROLINA JASMINE - Garnered a decent speed rating last time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 4:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#3 RAINBOW SQUALL (ML=10/1)
#1 PROUD SINGER (ML=30/1)
#6 TAVASCO ROAD (ML=5/1)


RAINBOW SQUALL - Early speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big performance today. PROUD SINGER - This colt should give a good account of himself in today's affair. TAVASCO ROAD - With no past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Moger has a +56 pct ROI rate with first timers. Based on drills, I look for this gelding to run a big race. I always like to see a thoroughbred getting Lasix for the 1st time. Moger adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ROCK ON DUDE (ML=3/1), #11 SHADES PLAY (ML=7/2), #5 RUNS SWEET (ML=4/1),

ROCK ON DUDE - The Brain cautions me to stay away from horses in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs recently. Hasn't been doing anything at all lately. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event. SHADES PLAY - This questionable contender didn't go to the front end and didn't make up any ground down the stretch last time he ran. RUNS SWEET - Don't think that this gelding has value at 4/1 in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #3 RAINBOW SQUALL on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,3,6] with [1,3,6] with [1,3,5,6,10] with [1,3,5,6,10] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

[1,3,6] with [1,3,6] with [1,3,5,6] with [1,3,5,6,9,10] with [1,3,5,6,9,10] Total Cost: $72