GREG SHAKER
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Play: Cubs +135
Note: Great odds here with Zamby on the mound and perhaps Peavy being a bit unfocused with all of the trade talk going on. Zambrano likes the road, and he likes being a road dog. They Cubs are 3-0 last 3 he has thrown away from Wrigley and 6-1 the last 7 times he has done so as a Dog. He is a competitor and his team has lost 4 straight. This has good performance written all over it. Zambrano, who needs one victory for 100 in his career, has had no trouble beating San Diego lately. The three time All-Star is 6-1 with a 1.80 ERA in eight starts against the Padres since 2003, and 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four career outings at Petco Park. The only blemish came in 2007, when he gave up one run and two hits in a complete game, 1-0 loss. The Cubs do like to play here and are 7-1 the last 8 times they have played this team. San Diego has lost 5 of the last 6 that Peavy has thrown and that is primarily do to their lack of scoring runs. They are not scoring right now for sure but they are managing to win games. However, this can't last forever with SD batting right near the .200 mark over the last 10 played. The Cubs pose a lot more of a threat than the Giants and Reds and at this price a Cubs Play is a Must Do.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Play: Cubs +135
Note: Great odds here with Zamby on the mound and perhaps Peavy being a bit unfocused with all of the trade talk going on. Zambrano likes the road, and he likes being a road dog. They Cubs are 3-0 last 3 he has thrown away from Wrigley and 6-1 the last 7 times he has done so as a Dog. He is a competitor and his team has lost 4 straight. This has good performance written all over it. Zambrano, who needs one victory for 100 in his career, has had no trouble beating San Diego lately. The three time All-Star is 6-1 with a 1.80 ERA in eight starts against the Padres since 2003, and 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four career outings at Petco Park. The only blemish came in 2007, when he gave up one run and two hits in a complete game, 1-0 loss. The Cubs do like to play here and are 7-1 the last 8 times they have played this team. San Diego has lost 5 of the last 6 that Peavy has thrown and that is primarily do to their lack of scoring runs. They are not scoring right now for sure but they are managing to win games. However, this can't last forever with SD batting right near the .200 mark over the last 10 played. The Cubs pose a lot more of a threat than the Giants and Reds and at this price a Cubs Play is a Must Do.
Drew Gordon
Kansas City +115 at ST. LOUIS
Despite their issues on the highway, one Royals pitcher I'll happily back on the road is Kyle Davies, who boasts a stellar 1.89 ERA away. True, he's winless on the road thus far this season, but if you saw him pitch at the Angels (1 run over 6 innings), at the Rangers (3 runs over 6 innings), and at the White Sox (7 scoreless) before that, then you know he's pitched well enough to win. Look for him to continue his success in hostile territory tonight at Busch, where he won his only start there back in June, allowing 1 run over 7 strong innings!
Opposing Davies is the Cardinals struggling righty Todd Wellemeyer, who started the month of May well, but had tail-spun in his last starts, allowing 11 runs over his last 10 innings, losing at Pittsburgh and then against Milwaukee in his last one. Like Davies, his ERA at home (1-3, 6.51 ERA) is much worse than his ERA on the road (2-1, 4.91 ERA), so to say Wellemeyer should pitch well at Busch tonight goes against everything we've seen this season!
Finally, while we give the edge to the Cardinals offense overall, of late its been the Royals who've been hitting righties well, batting a solid .275 over their L10 games in that spot. Compare that to the Redbirds, who are batting just .226 vs righties over the same 10-game span, and all of a sudden the plus money is looking mighty good in this one. In the end, I know the Cardinals are tough at home, but remember Kansas City has played well in St. Louis, going 7-3 in their last 10 meetings there! In the end, Royals are the play here, as Davies delivers another solid road start!
Take Kansas City behind Davies over St. Louis and Wellemeyer in this MLB match up.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Kansas City +115 at ST. LOUIS
Despite their issues on the highway, one Royals pitcher I'll happily back on the road is Kyle Davies, who boasts a stellar 1.89 ERA away. True, he's winless on the road thus far this season, but if you saw him pitch at the Angels (1 run over 6 innings), at the Rangers (3 runs over 6 innings), and at the White Sox (7 scoreless) before that, then you know he's pitched well enough to win. Look for him to continue his success in hostile territory tonight at Busch, where he won his only start there back in June, allowing 1 run over 7 strong innings!
Opposing Davies is the Cardinals struggling righty Todd Wellemeyer, who started the month of May well, but had tail-spun in his last starts, allowing 11 runs over his last 10 innings, losing at Pittsburgh and then against Milwaukee in his last one. Like Davies, his ERA at home (1-3, 6.51 ERA) is much worse than his ERA on the road (2-1, 4.91 ERA), so to say Wellemeyer should pitch well at Busch tonight goes against everything we've seen this season!
Finally, while we give the edge to the Cardinals offense overall, of late its been the Royals who've been hitting righties well, batting a solid .275 over their L10 games in that spot. Compare that to the Redbirds, who are batting just .226 vs righties over the same 10-game span, and all of a sudden the plus money is looking mighty good in this one. In the end, I know the Cardinals are tough at home, but remember Kansas City has played well in St. Louis, going 7-3 in their last 10 meetings there! In the end, Royals are the play here, as Davies delivers another solid road start!
Take Kansas City behind Davies over St. Louis and Wellemeyer in this MLB match up.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Tony Karpinski
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
Nine straight wins and the Bronx Bombers are hosting the defending champion Phillies. Sounds like a winner to me. After all, what better time to make even more of a statement, like when you're winning as much as New York is, and step right into Interleague play to take on the defending champs. The Yankees have won seven straight at home during their winning streak, and are on additional runs of 8-0 as a chalk, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 37-18 at home, 7-1 on Friday and 54-20 when hosting N.L. opponents.I like A.J. Burnett since the Yanks are 3-1 in his first four home starts in the Bronx and he is getting used to this stadium.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
Nine straight wins and the Bronx Bombers are hosting the defending champion Phillies. Sounds like a winner to me. After all, what better time to make even more of a statement, like when you're winning as much as New York is, and step right into Interleague play to take on the defending champs. The Yankees have won seven straight at home during their winning streak, and are on additional runs of 8-0 as a chalk, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 37-18 at home, 7-1 on Friday and 54-20 when hosting N.L. opponents.I like A.J. Burnett since the Yanks are 3-1 in his first four home starts in the Bronx and he is getting used to this stadium.
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Think things don't change quickly in the world of sports? Bob Melvin, the 2007 NL Manager of the Year, was fired by the D'backs on May 8. He was replaced by AJ Hinch, the director of the team's farm system, but someone with no managerial experience. Go figure? The D'backs initially went into a 1-6 slide under Hinch but enter this game having won four of five. However, one can't be too confident in playing on the D'backs in this one, with little-used Billy Buckner on the mound. Buckner made seven appearances (five starts) for the Royals back in 2007, posting a 5.29 ERA (he was 1-2 with a 6.49 ERA in his five starts). He made 10 appearances with the D'backs last season, all in relief, pitching only 14 innings. Buckner opened the season with the big club but made three relief appearances early on, allowing seven hits and seven ERs in just four innings (15.75 ERA), so off he went to Reno. He's done OK there, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) and has been recalled today, to open this three-game series with the A's. The A's will counter with Tom Cahill, who will be making his ninth start of 2009, which is his rookie season. He's had two awful outings, including his last one at Detroit (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 7 ERs). He also allowed seven ERs at home to Tampa Bay on April in just 2.1 innings but one can't ignore the fact that in his other six starts, he has allowed just nine ERs over 36.1 innings (2.23 ERA). Neither team hits much, with the D'backs batting .234 (29th) and the A's, .241 (28th). However, most of Oakland's woes have come vs lefties in 2009, as the A's are 4-11 vs southpaws, while going 11-12 vs right-handers. Cahill has won his last two home starts (2.08 ERA) and he should be just fine here, vs the light-hitting D'backs. The A's are worth a small play.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Think things don't change quickly in the world of sports? Bob Melvin, the 2007 NL Manager of the Year, was fired by the D'backs on May 8. He was replaced by AJ Hinch, the director of the team's farm system, but someone with no managerial experience. Go figure? The D'backs initially went into a 1-6 slide under Hinch but enter this game having won four of five. However, one can't be too confident in playing on the D'backs in this one, with little-used Billy Buckner on the mound. Buckner made seven appearances (five starts) for the Royals back in 2007, posting a 5.29 ERA (he was 1-2 with a 6.49 ERA in his five starts). He made 10 appearances with the D'backs last season, all in relief, pitching only 14 innings. Buckner opened the season with the big club but made three relief appearances early on, allowing seven hits and seven ERs in just four innings (15.75 ERA), so off he went to Reno. He's done OK there, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) and has been recalled today, to open this three-game series with the A's. The A's will counter with Tom Cahill, who will be making his ninth start of 2009, which is his rookie season. He's had two awful outings, including his last one at Detroit (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 7 ERs). He also allowed seven ERs at home to Tampa Bay on April in just 2.1 innings but one can't ignore the fact that in his other six starts, he has allowed just nine ERs over 36.1 innings (2.23 ERA). Neither team hits much, with the D'backs batting .234 (29th) and the A's, .241 (28th). However, most of Oakland's woes have come vs lefties in 2009, as the A's are 4-11 vs southpaws, while going 11-12 vs right-handers. Cahill has won his last two home starts (2.08 ERA) and he should be just fine here, vs the light-hitting D'backs. The A's are worth a small play.
BEN BURNS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Padres were swept at Wrigley earlier this month. They come in as the much hotter team for this weekend's series though. In fact, they've won six straight. Conversely, the Cubs have lost four in a row. For the season, the Cubs are a money-burning 9-11 (-3) on the road while the Padres are a profitable 14-6 (+7.2) here at Petco Park.
After refusing to be traded to the White Sox, Peavy should be highly motivated to deliver a strong performance here. Judging by his recent stats, that's a fairly strong possibility. Looking at Peavy's last three starts and we find him with an excellent 2.45 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. In his last game, he tossed a complete-game 4-hitter, allowing just a single run. He had eight K's and just one walk and the Padres won by a score of 3-1.
Of course, when he's on his game, Zambrano is also capable of dominating. While he's had success vs. the Padres in the past, he hasn't been quite as sharp as Peavy in his most "recent" starts and his road WHIP of 1.474 shows that he's allowing a relatively high number of baserunners. Worse, he's been on the disabled list and hasn't made a start since May 3rd. He's expected to be on a limited pitch count.
Note that Zambrano allowed four runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings of a rehab start for single-A Daytona. Peavy, who averages greater than seven innings per start here at home, should be able to outlast him. Consider San Diego
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Padres were swept at Wrigley earlier this month. They come in as the much hotter team for this weekend's series though. In fact, they've won six straight. Conversely, the Cubs have lost four in a row. For the season, the Cubs are a money-burning 9-11 (-3) on the road while the Padres are a profitable 14-6 (+7.2) here at Petco Park.
After refusing to be traded to the White Sox, Peavy should be highly motivated to deliver a strong performance here. Judging by his recent stats, that's a fairly strong possibility. Looking at Peavy's last three starts and we find him with an excellent 2.45 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. In his last game, he tossed a complete-game 4-hitter, allowing just a single run. He had eight K's and just one walk and the Padres won by a score of 3-1.
Of course, when he's on his game, Zambrano is also capable of dominating. While he's had success vs. the Padres in the past, he hasn't been quite as sharp as Peavy in his most "recent" starts and his road WHIP of 1.474 shows that he's allowing a relatively high number of baserunners. Worse, he's been on the disabled list and hasn't made a start since May 3rd. He's expected to be on a limited pitch count.
Note that Zambrano allowed four runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings of a rehab start for single-A Daytona. Peavy, who averages greater than seven innings per start here at home, should be able to outlast him. Consider San Diego
Dwayne Bryant
Half-unit play on Orlando Magic +9
Cleveland is a very public team and everyone expects them to bounce back at home and even this series. And while I think they do just that, I also think this number is way too high.
There's a reason Orlando has won three of four against LeBron and the Cavs this season; The Magic match up extremely well with Cleveland. Their perimeter shooting (Turkoglu, Lewis, etc.) combined with Dwight Howard's presence down low presents all kinds of problems for the Cavs.
LeBron was on absolute fire in Game 1, but that also led to his teammates standing around looking more like spectators than anything else. There was little motion, ball movement or strategy. And while I expect LeBron to put the team on his back again and get the win tonight, I don't expect them to win in a blowout.
I like how Orlando matches up with the Cavs, so I'll gladly take +9 with the Magic tonight for a half-unit.
Half-unit play on Orlando Magic +9
Cleveland is a very public team and everyone expects them to bounce back at home and even this series. And while I think they do just that, I also think this number is way too high.
There's a reason Orlando has won three of four against LeBron and the Cavs this season; The Magic match up extremely well with Cleveland. Their perimeter shooting (Turkoglu, Lewis, etc.) combined with Dwight Howard's presence down low presents all kinds of problems for the Cavs.
LeBron was on absolute fire in Game 1, but that also led to his teammates standing around looking more like spectators than anything else. There was little motion, ball movement or strategy. And while I expect LeBron to put the team on his back again and get the win tonight, I don't expect them to win in a blowout.
I like how Orlando matches up with the Cavs, so I'll gladly take +9 with the Magic tonight for a half-unit.
Rocketman Sports
NY Mets @ Boston
Play: NY Mets
NY Mets is 8-1 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. NY Mets bullpen has a 2.88 ERA overall and a 3.03 ERA on the road this year. Johan Santana is 5-2 with a 1.36 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA his last 3 starts. Matsuzaka is 0-1 with a 12.80 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA at home this season. Santana has a 2.47 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets tonight!
NY Mets @ Boston
Play: NY Mets
NY Mets is 8-1 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. NY Mets bullpen has a 2.88 ERA overall and a 3.03 ERA on the road this year. Johan Santana is 5-2 with a 1.36 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA his last 3 starts. Matsuzaka is 0-1 with a 12.80 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA at home this season. Santana has a 2.47 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets tonight!
IC Leans
MLB
Baltimore vs. Washington
Baltimore obviously is in a foul mood after getting spanked by the Yankees. The Os were swept by the fellas from the Bronx in 3 games. Hill pitched great for his new ballclub at KC helping his team win 3-2 in the last contest. Something interesting is that manager Trembly called Hill's performance one of the best this year, if not the best, go figure Trembley is kissing up already to one of his new additions. Zimmerman has given up 16 runs in 17 innings of late as he has been struggling. The line on the game makes it a bit worrisome, as the oddsmakers are figuring in my opinion that Zimmerman has to have a decent performance at home here. Rumor mill has it that he might be headed back to the minors given his 3 straight shaky starts. A small lean on the under here and the Os as its hard not to back Hill despite the fact he might be in for a small let down; of course, he is still with his new team so he will look to pitch well for them again.
Philadelphia vs. NY Yankees
What a series this should be. The Phillies have won 6 of 7 and sit atop the NL East and give credit to my Bravos, they are not that far behind either. Myers has pitched back to back quality starts, and something about Brett is that he usually goes 3:1 - 3 quality starts to after non-quality start. Burnett has not picked up a win in 6 starts, but he has been pitching well of late giving up just 2 runs on more than 6 innings against the Twins. But, he has struggled to put together back to back quality starts of late. There is some value here on the Phillies imo as I think Myers will likely pitch well again and Burnett might give up around 4-5 runs today.
NY Mets vs. Boston
Santana still picked up the win but oddly enough he got shelled in San Fran in his last start. The effort brought his era up to 1.36 - notice I say "up to" in quotations as that is still a remarkable era effort. That was the first non-quality effort for Santana in the season. Dice-K finally makes his much awaited reppearance for the Sox today. Santana has actually struggled at Fenway with over a 6era there, but having said that, you know he is ticked at having his era lifted in his prior start due to poor defense. Dice-K has looked sound in his minor league stints as he is back up in the majors, so I can see this game going either way. It is tempting to take the over on a 8.5 line at Fenway though.
Toronto vs. Atlanta
The Jays come off getting swept at Boston in a 3 game series and look to bounce-back at Atlanta. The Braves got spanked 0-9 yesterday after winning 12-4 against the Rockies in the game before. Halladay is an unbelievable 8-1 with a 2.78era as he has given up 3 runs in 24 innings. Kawakami hasn't pitched all that bad for the Braves but he has been the tough luck loser in several games; granted, last game despite him giving up 3 earned runs in 5 innings, the Braves lost 0-12. No lean one way or another as the Jays are ticked coming off getting swept and the Braves will look to bounce-back after losing 0-12 - who knows, this game might even go over despite Halladay on the mound.
KC vs. St. Louis
Davies has given up just 3 runs over the last 13 innings, but he usually struggles to put together 3 straight quality starts. The Cards are hot right now as they just recently took it to the Cubs but Davies split 2 decisions against the Cards last year when he was with the Royals as he had a 2.7era against them. Well continues to struggle giving up 11 runs over the last 10 innings as the Cardinals hope that he breaks out of his slump. After all, he had a huge year last year and they wanted him to have a successfull sophomore season of sorts - but that has just not been the case. Well needs a good start today given the lack of starts in the last 2 games and I think Davies shows up today as well. A lean on the Under here.
Cleveland vs. Cincinatti
Arroyo pitched well in his last start as he gave up 3 runs in 7 innings but Jake Peavy got the better of him. Cleveland has won back to back games while Cincy has lost 5 of their last 6. Reyes gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in his last start and he is simply a lackluster pitcher that tries to allow 3 runs or less in 5 innings or less. I never trust Arroyo though as after a quality start he usually struggles and has a non-quality start. The Indians are obviously quite familiar with his stuff having seen him in Boston in the AL so they are likely to do well against his pitching today imo. Having said that, Arroyo is on a W,L,W,L,W,L trend as he usually helps his team after a previos loss. So, some conflicting information here so just staying away.
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MLB
Baltimore vs. Washington
Baltimore obviously is in a foul mood after getting spanked by the Yankees. The Os were swept by the fellas from the Bronx in 3 games. Hill pitched great for his new ballclub at KC helping his team win 3-2 in the last contest. Something interesting is that manager Trembly called Hill's performance one of the best this year, if not the best, go figure Trembley is kissing up already to one of his new additions. Zimmerman has given up 16 runs in 17 innings of late as he has been struggling. The line on the game makes it a bit worrisome, as the oddsmakers are figuring in my opinion that Zimmerman has to have a decent performance at home here. Rumor mill has it that he might be headed back to the minors given his 3 straight shaky starts. A small lean on the under here and the Os as its hard not to back Hill despite the fact he might be in for a small let down; of course, he is still with his new team so he will look to pitch well for them again.
Philadelphia vs. NY Yankees
What a series this should be. The Phillies have won 6 of 7 and sit atop the NL East and give credit to my Bravos, they are not that far behind either. Myers has pitched back to back quality starts, and something about Brett is that he usually goes 3:1 - 3 quality starts to after non-quality start. Burnett has not picked up a win in 6 starts, but he has been pitching well of late giving up just 2 runs on more than 6 innings against the Twins. But, he has struggled to put together back to back quality starts of late. There is some value here on the Phillies imo as I think Myers will likely pitch well again and Burnett might give up around 4-5 runs today.
NY Mets vs. Boston
Santana still picked up the win but oddly enough he got shelled in San Fran in his last start. The effort brought his era up to 1.36 - notice I say "up to" in quotations as that is still a remarkable era effort. That was the first non-quality effort for Santana in the season. Dice-K finally makes his much awaited reppearance for the Sox today. Santana has actually struggled at Fenway with over a 6era there, but having said that, you know he is ticked at having his era lifted in his prior start due to poor defense. Dice-K has looked sound in his minor league stints as he is back up in the majors, so I can see this game going either way. It is tempting to take the over on a 8.5 line at Fenway though.
Toronto vs. Atlanta
The Jays come off getting swept at Boston in a 3 game series and look to bounce-back at Atlanta. The Braves got spanked 0-9 yesterday after winning 12-4 against the Rockies in the game before. Halladay is an unbelievable 8-1 with a 2.78era as he has given up 3 runs in 24 innings. Kawakami hasn't pitched all that bad for the Braves but he has been the tough luck loser in several games; granted, last game despite him giving up 3 earned runs in 5 innings, the Braves lost 0-12. No lean one way or another as the Jays are ticked coming off getting swept and the Braves will look to bounce-back after losing 0-12 - who knows, this game might even go over despite Halladay on the mound.
KC vs. St. Louis
Davies has given up just 3 runs over the last 13 innings, but he usually struggles to put together 3 straight quality starts. The Cards are hot right now as they just recently took it to the Cubs but Davies split 2 decisions against the Cards last year when he was with the Royals as he had a 2.7era against them. Well continues to struggle giving up 11 runs over the last 10 innings as the Cardinals hope that he breaks out of his slump. After all, he had a huge year last year and they wanted him to have a successfull sophomore season of sorts - but that has just not been the case. Well needs a good start today given the lack of starts in the last 2 games and I think Davies shows up today as well. A lean on the Under here.
Cleveland vs. Cincinatti
Arroyo pitched well in his last start as he gave up 3 runs in 7 innings but Jake Peavy got the better of him. Cleveland has won back to back games while Cincy has lost 5 of their last 6. Reyes gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in his last start and he is simply a lackluster pitcher that tries to allow 3 runs or less in 5 innings or less. I never trust Arroyo though as after a quality start he usually struggles and has a non-quality start. The Indians are obviously quite familiar with his stuff having seen him in Boston in the AL so they are likely to do well against his pitching today imo. Having said that, Arroyo is on a W,L,W,L,W,L trend as he usually helps his team after a previos loss. So, some conflicting information here so just staying away.
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