148th Open Championship:
Outrights:
Justin Rose(22/1) e.w.
Justin Thomas(40/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(75/1) e.w.
Marc Leishman(70/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(30/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(70/1) e.w.
Patrick Cantlay(35/1) e.w.
Erik Van Rooyen(110/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(66/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Zander Lombard(80/1) e.w. Top ROW
Jorge Campillo(80/1) e.w. Top European
Andy Sullivan(55/1) e.w. Top European
Lucas Glover(80/1) e.w. Top American
- - My take from various reports about the unfamiliar venue are that power will be an advantage, mistakes will be penalized, weather may make late on Thursday the worst of the draw, the green complexes seem particularly unique, and the opportunities to play along the ground seem less than usual, and all of those elements have factored into my capping. And as always, I ask what the player has done for a week or two prior to Monday to get in touch with their links game . . . So, I’ve been tracking Poulter for this major championship all year, but I don’t think it is suited to his game like a Birkdale or Troon or Turnberry might be . . . Justin Thomas impressed me from the first moment I caught him in action at the Scottish Open . . . Leishman may just have the all around game that will go well at this venue . . . Gotta try someone as a mudder, and my compass pointed to the old chestnut Lowry.
GL
Outrights:
Justin Rose(22/1) e.w.
Justin Thomas(40/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(75/1) e.w.
Marc Leishman(70/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(30/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(70/1) e.w.
Patrick Cantlay(35/1) e.w.
Erik Van Rooyen(110/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(66/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Zander Lombard(80/1) e.w. Top ROW
Jorge Campillo(80/1) e.w. Top European
Andy Sullivan(55/1) e.w. Top European
Lucas Glover(80/1) e.w. Top American
- - My take from various reports about the unfamiliar venue are that power will be an advantage, mistakes will be penalized, weather may make late on Thursday the worst of the draw, the green complexes seem particularly unique, and the opportunities to play along the ground seem less than usual, and all of those elements have factored into my capping. And as always, I ask what the player has done for a week or two prior to Monday to get in touch with their links game . . . So, I’ve been tracking Poulter for this major championship all year, but I don’t think it is suited to his game like a Birkdale or Troon or Turnberry might be . . . Justin Thomas impressed me from the first moment I caught him in action at the Scottish Open . . . Leishman may just have the all around game that will go well at this venue . . . Gotta try someone as a mudder, and my compass pointed to the old chestnut Lowry.
GL
Okay.
(1) Under ideal circumstances, those ribbons of fairway I’m seeing still present a major challenge. IMO, Spieth is badly failing the challenge. I’ll be looking elsewhere for contenders when the conditions and circumstances are getting turned up several notches this weekend.
(2) IMO, the best story line from here has to include Westwood in the mix.
(3) The betting angle of Westwood as a links savvy nearly man poised for more, it works for me. But of course I’ve seen how this story ends, with his Sunday putter.
(4) I thought Lowry was very capable of going better today. And probably needed to. Damn.
(5) Justin Thomas is now untethered from the good golf played in the Fleetwod/Olesen 3-Ball, and I gotta believe his game is carrying solid tangibles and intangibles to the re-pairing. I will be some synonym of shocked if the record book shows Thomas failed to move up from T-32 in this rendition.
(6) After-timing for profits . . . Looking for an in-running play to embrace after Day 1, the best I had on my sheet was Alex Noren(50/1) e.w. at -3, on credentials rather than something palpable. It was a fairly easy decision not to force a play and keep my powder dry, and although I’ve only seen Noren hit one shot, his stats remained solid, and his scorecard features birdies early and late. With the odds now stretched to 150/1, it’s a fairly easy decision for me to take the plunge.
(7) Portrush is presenting an awesome test for these pros. The 1st hole is just outstanding, producing birdies and snowmen.
(8 ) The angle being pushed by The Golf Channel on Thursday was the fact that only 9 times in 147 prior editions has the winner been outside of the Top 20 after the first round (-1 was T-20).
(9) Introducing a new variable is the spot as the final major of the season, something very different for us fans, and probably for the storylines of a fairly righteous 2019 season.
(10) I’m pretty sure I’ll remember these plays as the easiest 5 matches of my life - plays against Woods as a contender, and on Clarke as a story.
(11) Tough to watch Dazzler crash and burn so miserably on the 18th hole. But I sense it could actually be useful motivation for Westwood. Just sayin’.
(12) That was fun. Now hoping to break even.
Saturday:
In- running:
Lee Westood(14/1) e.w.
- - I think I can promise you fun.
Justin Thomas(175/1) e.w.
- - Too many regrets are possible if I pass.
Alex Noren(150/1) e.w.
- - My capping puts this play high on my sheet.
Sam Saunders(750/1) e.w.
- - Sam is in a rich vein of form. There is lots of motivation, in a stretch he’s pretty used to experiencing. Angles enough to take on those odds.
Matchups:
Westwood(-120) Un70'
Thomas(-120) Un69'
Noren(-120) Un 70'
Kokrak(-110) over Stanley
Kuchar(-125) over Spieth
D.Johnson(-105) over Rahm
Pepperell(-110) over McDowell
GL
(1) Under ideal circumstances, those ribbons of fairway I’m seeing still present a major challenge. IMO, Spieth is badly failing the challenge. I’ll be looking elsewhere for contenders when the conditions and circumstances are getting turned up several notches this weekend.
(2) IMO, the best story line from here has to include Westwood in the mix.
(3) The betting angle of Westwood as a links savvy nearly man poised for more, it works for me. But of course I’ve seen how this story ends, with his Sunday putter.
(4) I thought Lowry was very capable of going better today. And probably needed to. Damn.
(5) Justin Thomas is now untethered from the good golf played in the Fleetwod/Olesen 3-Ball, and I gotta believe his game is carrying solid tangibles and intangibles to the re-pairing. I will be some synonym of shocked if the record book shows Thomas failed to move up from T-32 in this rendition.
(6) After-timing for profits . . . Looking for an in-running play to embrace after Day 1, the best I had on my sheet was Alex Noren(50/1) e.w. at -3, on credentials rather than something palpable. It was a fairly easy decision not to force a play and keep my powder dry, and although I’ve only seen Noren hit one shot, his stats remained solid, and his scorecard features birdies early and late. With the odds now stretched to 150/1, it’s a fairly easy decision for me to take the plunge.
(7) Portrush is presenting an awesome test for these pros. The 1st hole is just outstanding, producing birdies and snowmen.
(8 ) The angle being pushed by The Golf Channel on Thursday was the fact that only 9 times in 147 prior editions has the winner been outside of the Top 20 after the first round (-1 was T-20).
(9) Introducing a new variable is the spot as the final major of the season, something very different for us fans, and probably for the storylines of a fairly righteous 2019 season.
(10) I’m pretty sure I’ll remember these plays as the easiest 5 matches of my life - plays against Woods as a contender, and on Clarke as a story.
(11) Tough to watch Dazzler crash and burn so miserably on the 18th hole. But I sense it could actually be useful motivation for Westwood. Just sayin’.
(12) That was fun. Now hoping to break even.
Saturday:
In- running:
Lee Westood(14/1) e.w.
- - I think I can promise you fun.
Justin Thomas(175/1) e.w.
- - Too many regrets are possible if I pass.
Alex Noren(150/1) e.w.
- - My capping puts this play high on my sheet.
Sam Saunders(750/1) e.w.
- - Sam is in a rich vein of form. There is lots of motivation, in a stretch he’s pretty used to experiencing. Angles enough to take on those odds.
Matchups:
Westwood(-120) Un70'
Thomas(-120) Un69'
Noren(-120) Un 70'
Kokrak(-110) over Stanley
Kuchar(-125) over Spieth
D.Johnson(-105) over Rahm
Pepperell(-110) over McDowell
GL
Through 29 Weeks:
Outrights YTD: 31-380 (+19.07*)
Matchups YTD: 27-31 (-6.30*)
WGC - FedEx St. Jude:
Outrights:
Justin Thomas(14/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(40/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(75/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(66/1) e.w.
Tyrell Hatton(60/1) e.w.
Xander Schauffele(22/1) e.w.
Andrew Putnam(50/1) e.w.
June 20, 2019:
- - Chez Reavie(60/1) e.w. at Travelers was the most recent example of the third proposition, Shane Lowry(70/1) last week a notch in the belt for the second proposition, Retief Goosen(20/1) e.w. at Senior Players Championship an exception to the rule regarding the first proposition.
- - Apropos that this week features an event that I recall having very little success capping when it was the week before the U.S. Open, and now it moves to a spot after a major . . . As I said in last week’s preview, “ Justin Thomas impressed me from the first moment I caught him in action at the Scottish Open”; it seemed fairly obvious he was beautifully “in the moment” of a U.K. links adventure, and now I’ll stay invested in his chances against the rest of the field in dealing with quickly adapting to more familiar circumstances (and I’ll be closely watching to see whether something happens early this week, as opposed to the slow starts on both Thursday and Friday that needed to be overcome last week) . . . Patrick Reed has been trending to the point that IMO I should probably have him on autoplay because of the likelihood he pops through, or at least continues to threaten, before the season culminates . . . Snedeker has a stellar record of bouncing back after tasting further disappointment in a major championship, this time missing the weekend by a stroke despite holing a 25 foot birdie putt on the 36th hole of a venue that didn’t particularly suit his game; hopefully getting a transatlantic jump on many, and getting a home state opportunity to relish . . . On the one hand I’m not entirely confident Willett and/or Hatton can seize this WGC championship here and now, but on the other hand I like the chances of both to have a really good tournament . . . Schauffele has a chip on his shoulder that screams the moment is getting his full attention . . . I have no real clues on Putnam, except from my homework it seems I am tagging along on a fairly popular ride.
GL
Outrights YTD: 31-380 (+19.07*)
Matchups YTD: 27-31 (-6.30*)
WGC - FedEx St. Jude:
Outrights:
Justin Thomas(14/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(40/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(75/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(66/1) e.w.
Tyrell Hatton(60/1) e.w.
Xander Schauffele(22/1) e.w.
Andrew Putnam(50/1) e.w.
June 20, 2019:
- - Chez Reavie(60/1) e.w. at Travelers was the most recent example of the third proposition, Shane Lowry(70/1) last week a notch in the belt for the second proposition, Retief Goosen(20/1) e.w. at Senior Players Championship an exception to the rule regarding the first proposition.
- - Apropos that this week features an event that I recall having very little success capping when it was the week before the U.S. Open, and now it moves to a spot after a major . . . As I said in last week’s preview, “ Justin Thomas impressed me from the first moment I caught him in action at the Scottish Open”; it seemed fairly obvious he was beautifully “in the moment” of a U.K. links adventure, and now I’ll stay invested in his chances against the rest of the field in dealing with quickly adapting to more familiar circumstances (and I’ll be closely watching to see whether something happens early this week, as opposed to the slow starts on both Thursday and Friday that needed to be overcome last week) . . . Patrick Reed has been trending to the point that IMO I should probably have him on autoplay because of the likelihood he pops through, or at least continues to threaten, before the season culminates . . . Snedeker has a stellar record of bouncing back after tasting further disappointment in a major championship, this time missing the weekend by a stroke despite holing a 25 foot birdie putt on the 36th hole of a venue that didn’t particularly suit his game; hopefully getting a transatlantic jump on many, and getting a home state opportunity to relish . . . On the one hand I’m not entirely confident Willett and/or Hatton can seize this WGC championship here and now, but on the other hand I like the chances of both to have a really good tournament . . . Schauffele has a chip on his shoulder that screams the moment is getting his full attention . . . I have no real clues on Putnam, except from my homework it seems I am tagging along on a fairly popular ride.
GL
Elizabeth Warren(+750) in 2020
- - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/is-elizabeth-warren-the-one
- - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-a-radical-plan-to-beat-trump-at-his-own-game
I'm getting not quite daily a text message or phone call from one or another candidate organizer about attending local appearances, debate watch parties, contributions, etc. Right now I expect my first choice will probably be Mayor Pete (a guy who has maybe never before even gotten 10,000 votes in an election) when I attend my 9th or 10th Iowa caucus.
GL
- - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/07/is-elizabeth-warren-the-one
- - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-a-radical-plan-to-beat-trump-at-his-own-game
I'm getting not quite daily a text message or phone call from one or another candidate organizer about attending local appearances, debate watch parties, contributions, etc. Right now I expect my first choice will probably be Mayor Pete (a guy who has maybe never before even gotten 10,000 votes in an election) when I attend my 9th or 10th Iowa caucus.
GL
