Fore! 2019

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Feb 13, 2008
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Rapiscan:

Outrights:

Steve Flesch(175/1) e.w.
Darren Clarke(66/1) e.w.
Woody Austin(25/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Sunday:

Kuchar(-105) over Kisner
Bjerregaard(+145) over Molinari
- - I could pass on Kuchar, but that's not how I roll. I would hedge on Kuchar if that's how I saw it, but I don't.

GL
 
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Valero Texas Open:

Outrights:

Jason Kokrak(28/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(33/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(33/1) e.w.
Luke List(50/1) e.w.
Ryan Palmer(55/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(75/1) e.w.
Scott Stallings(100/1) e.w.
Harold Varner(150/1) e.w.
J.J. Spaun(175/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(200/1) e.w.
- - The only real capping behind the names on that roster is that after passing on Sungjae Im and Cameron Tringale, it features all of this week's participants who in some form or fashion have "most" caught my attention but not tasted victory in the run-up to the Masters since the start of the calendar year.

GL
 
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Masters:

Outrights:

Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Justin Harding(35/1) e.w. Top Rest of World
Lucas Bjerregaard(60/1) e.w. Top European
Rory McIlroy(7/1) e.w.
Tiger Woods(16/1) e.w.
Matt Kuchar(40/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(45/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(90/1) e.w.
Justin Rose(14/1) e.w.
Bubba Watson(33/1) e.w.


Matchups:

Kuchar(-125) over Mickelson (Tournament)
Casey(-110) over Koepka (Tournament)
Kuchar(+120) over Z.Johnson/Poulter (Thursday)
Bradley(+175) over Noren/Fitzpatrick (Thursday)
Bjerregaard(+187) over Grace/Grillo (Thursday)
Finau(+162) over Garcia/Stenson (Thursday)


GL
 
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While scrounging for those last few plays, I didn't feel any inspiration for taking any outsiders and sided with two proven performers (but now hoping for some in-running inspiration), and felt more adventuresome with the 3 Balls.

GL
 

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must ask...what is e.w.??? and 3 ball??

"each way"...he is betting the player to win and to finish 2nd-4th, i believe 2 separate bets.....correct me if i'm wrong, lostinamerica. these types of bets are more popular in the u.k. than in the u.s.

3 ball is a 3-man competition, you take one player against the entry of the other 2 so your player has to beat the other two (check house rules for what happens in event of a win and a push vs the other 2 players). generally players in the same 3 some are matched up in a 3 ball.
 
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must ask...what is e.w.??? and 3 ball??

Thanks, scrubs, for furnishing an accurate response to the question.

I had a very busy week last week, with barely any time for capping The Masters (but I made time to watch much of the four days, because it's The Masters), but I now have time to answer your question.

It is accurate to think of an each-way (e.w.) bet as basically two bets - one bet is to win, the other is to “place”.

Traditionally, most books with e.w. betting have offered odds of 1/4th the win odds for any finish in the Top 5 (i.e., 16/1 for Woods to Win, and 4/1 for Woods to finish in the Top 5). Now, more books that offer e.w. betting are offering odds of 1/5th the Win odds for finishing in the Top 6 or even Top 8 (i.e., 40/1 odds for Kuchar to Win, and 8/1 for Kuchar to finish in the Top 8) . . . Also, most American books may not offer the simple expedient of placing an e.w. wager, and you actually have to make one wager on winning, then make a separate wager on placing in the Top 5, in which case there is often little consistency on every player in the field with regard to the precise ratio between the win odds and the place odds (i.e., you may get Woods at 16/1 to Win and 3/1 for top 5, while ketting Kuchar at 45/1 to Win and 12/1 for Top 5, and Martin Kaymer at 150/1 to Win and 18/1 for Top 5, etc.).

For consistency in posting my record, all e.w. wagers are treated as 1/4th Win odds for Top 5 on the place wagers.

One additional aspect of e.w. betting that needs to be understood and discussed is the “dead heat rule”, which is fairly consistent at all books. As an example, if the book pays for the Top 5 on a place wager, and if 4 players are tied for 3rd-4th-5th-6th, then 3/4 of my e.w. wager will be paid off as a winning wager (3rd, 4th and 5th), while 1/4th will be treated as a losing wager (6th). Similarly, if 6 players tie for 5th, 1/6th of my e.w. wager is a winning bet (5th), while 5/6ths of the wager is a loser (6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th).

And with regard to 3 Balls, it is a wager on who will prevail in an actual "pairing" of 3 players in the same group. Here the dead heat rules can also come into play, so if I wager on Finau(+162) over Garcia/Stenson, and Finau and Stenson tie for low score with 71 (while Garcia shoots 74), then 1/2 of my +162 wager is a winning wager, and 1/2 is a losing wager, for a return of (.81 +.50) = 1.31 units (+0.31*) on a 1 unit wager.

Hope that helps.

GL
 
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Through 15 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 17-200 (+13.56*)
Matchups YTD: 7-15 (-8.17*)


RBC Heritage:

Outrights:

Jim Furyk(33/1) e.w.
Patton Kizzire(100/1) e.w.
Aaron Baddeley(80/1) e.w.
Webb Simpson(25/1) e.w.
Justin Harding(80/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Sungjae Im(40/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(50/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(110/1) e.w.


GL
 
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Mitsubishi Electric:

Outrights:

Woody Austin(28/1) e.w.
Darren Clarke(100/1) e.w.
Billy Andrade(40/1) e.w.
- - 100/1 winner here last year with Steve Flesch, a play I felt really good about from the start, but no such feelings or expectations this time.

GL
 
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Trophee Hassan II:

Outrights:

Christian Bezuidenhout(35/1) e.w.
Adrian Otaegui(50/1) e.w.
Benjamin Herbert(60/1) e.w.
Ashley Chesters(100/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(250/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Zurich:

Outrights:

Finau/Stanley(18/1) e.w.
Reavie/Glover(40/1) e.w.
Hoffman/Watney(40/1) e.w.
Harmon/Kizzire(66/1) e.w.
Kim/Bae(80/1) e.w.
Kim/Im(100/1) e.w.
Castro/Tringale(175/1) e.w.

GL
 

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Friedeggpaulie picks so far:

Week 18: Wells Fargo Championship
Updates:


  • [*=left]Key Attributes and Outrights posted 6:08pm CST Monday

Key Attributes:
Players who have success at this course typically succeed in 3 key areas:


  • [*=left]Length off the tee


  • [*=1|left]This is one of the longest courses on Tour and allows players to hit driver on most holes.


  • [*=left]Mid to long iron prowess


  • [*=1|left]With the course playing so long, players who aren’t insanely long off the tee will be forced to have a lot of approaches from 175-225.


  • [*=left]Chipping/Pitching:


  • [*=1|left]With long approach shots combined with rough that is difficult to judge iron shots out of and firm greens we see a larger than normal percentage of greens missed. The scores typically aren’t super low here so grinding out pars after errant shots is key.

Outrights:


  • [*=left]Mickelson +3000 (.83 for 25) True Line +2200


  • [*=1|left]12th or better 11 of the last 14 years at this event. He has been working this year to increase his distance off the tee which he has which should help him even more on this course. 30/1 is just too high of a number for a world class player at one of his favorite courses.


  • [*=left]Glover +5500 (.45 for 25) True Line +4000


  • [*=1|left]Glover has 3 top 4 finishes at this event including a win in 2011. He has been in great form this year finishing 17th or better in 10 of his last 13 starts.


  • [*=left]An +6000 (.41 for 25) True Line +4500


  • [*=1|left]An is a great statistical fit for this course and we get some higher odds than normal after his MC at the Heritage where he was 40/1 in a just as strong field.


  • [*=left]List +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6000


  • [*=1|left]List is an elite ball striker who will win on the PGA Tour eventually. His length and consistency off the tee will give him a massive advantage this week.


  • [*=left]Mitchell +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6000


  • [*=1|left]Mitchell will have an advantage this week with his length off the tee. He is a brand new player after capturing the win at the Honda. He isn’t afraid to contend with the best players in the world. He finished 34th here in his debut last year as PGA Tour rookie when he wasn’t even playing that well. 80/1 is just too high for a guy with this much upside.


  • [*=left]Holmes +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6500


  • [*=1|left]Holmes is a long hitter who won here in 2014 and also won earlier this year at Torrey Pines. 80/1 is just too high for a guy who we know can win on Tour when his game is on.


  • [*=left]Mullinax +11000 (.23 for 25) True Line +8000


  • [*=1|left]If you watched the Zurich last week, you would have seen how well Mullinax played (carried Stallings most of the event) and how good his swing looks right now. His game is firing on all cylinders and he is one of the longest players on Tour which bodes well for this week.
Total outlay: 2.85 units
Top 10/20:
Tuesday
Tournament HTH
Tuesday
Round 1 HTH
Wednesday
First Round Leader
Wednesday
DK Sportsbook Bets
Tuesday/Wednesday
Monkey Knife Fight Props
Wednesday
One and Done League Advice
Wednesday
 
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Wells Fargo:

Outrights:

Tony Finau(20/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(28/1) e.w.
Webb Simpson(20/1) e.w.
Byeong Hun An(60/1) e.w.
Luke List(80/1) e.w.
Harold Varner(150/1) e.w.
Roberto Castro(175/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(35/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(50/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Byron Nelson:

Outrights:

Pat Perez(66/1) e.w.
Marc Leishman(25/1) e.w.
Jimmy Walker(90/1) e.w.
Lucas Bjerregaard(60/1) e.w.
Cameron Tringale(200/1) e.w.

GL
 
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PGA:

Outrights:

Rickie Fowler(20/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(110/1) e.w.
Tiger Woods(12/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(200/1) e.w.
Jason Day(22/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(70/1) e.w.
Pat Perez(100/1) e.w. Top American
Steve Stricker(150/1) e.w. Top American
Ryan Palmer(90/1) e.w. Top American
Matt Wallace(40/1) e.w. Top European
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(33/1) e.w. Top ROW


GL
 
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Made in Denmark:

Outrights:

Benjamin Herbert(45/1) e.w.
Sam Horsfield(80/1) e.w.
Ashley Chesters(125/1) e.w.
Thongchai Jaidee(150/1) e.w.
Ashun Wu(150/1) e.w.

GL
 
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Senior PGA:

Outrights:

Steve Flesch(125/1) e.w.
Stephen Ames(80/1) e.w.
Tom Lehman(40/1) e.w.
Darren Clarke(150/1) e.w.

GL
 

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