Through 31 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 41-338 (+62.09*)
Matchups YTD: 36-34 (+2.65*)
100th P.G.A. Championship:
Dustin Johnson(8/1) e.w.
Brooks Koepka(18/1) e.w.
Rory McIlroy(12/1) e.w.
Justin Thomas(14/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(75/1) e.w.
Jason Dufner(150/1) e.w.
Jason Day(18/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(45/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(100/1) e.w.
Beau Hossler(110/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Matthew Fitzpatrick(40/1) e.w. Top European
Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w. Top European
Danny Willett(50/1) e.w. Top European
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w. Top ROW
Patrick Cantlay(25/1) e.w. Top American
J.J. Spaun(125/1) e.w. Top American
Rory McIlroy(-145) Finish Un20'
Brooks Koepka(-105) Finish Un20'
Justin Thomas(-115) Finish Un20'
Dustin Johnson(+125) Finish Un10'
GL
Outrights YTD: 41-338 (+62.09*)
Matchups YTD: 36-34 (+2.65*)
100th P.G.A. Championship:
Dustin Johnson(8/1) e.w.
Brooks Koepka(18/1) e.w.
Rory McIlroy(12/1) e.w.
Justin Thomas(14/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(75/1) e.w.
Jason Dufner(150/1) e.w.
Jason Day(18/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(45/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(100/1) e.w.
Beau Hossler(110/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Matthew Fitzpatrick(40/1) e.w. Top European
Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w. Top European
Danny Willett(50/1) e.w. Top European
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w. Top ROW
Patrick Cantlay(25/1) e.w. Top American
J.J. Spaun(125/1) e.w. Top American
Rory McIlroy(-145) Finish Un20'
Brooks Koepka(-105) Finish Un20'
Justin Thomas(-115) Finish Un20'
Dustin Johnson(+125) Finish Un10'
GL
First . . . I see that for the first time this year I overlooked posting a play at theRX that I did post on "another forum".
I only keep one record, so I am posting this documented play here now, and will be including it in my record:
Wyndham:
Outrights::
Si Woo Kim(45/1) e.w.
Chris Kirk(70/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(100/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(70/1) e.w.
Sam Ryder(100/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
Ryan Moore(33/1) e.w.
Harold Varner(55/1) e.w.
Andres Romero(200/1) e.w.
Johnson Wagner(80/1) e.w.
Hunter Mahan(110/1) e.w.
Second . . . Wyndham . . . In-running:
Sam Saunders(500/1) e.w.
GL
I only keep one record, so I am posting this documented play here now, and will be including it in my record:
Wyndham:
Outrights::
Si Woo Kim(45/1) e.w.
Chris Kirk(70/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(100/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(70/1) e.w.
Sam Ryder(100/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
Ryan Moore(33/1) e.w.
Harold Varner(55/1) e.w.
Andres Romero(200/1) e.w.
Johnson Wagner(80/1) e.w.
Hunter Mahan(110/1) e.w.
Second . . . Wyndham . . . In-running:
Sam Saunders(500/1) e.w.
GL
Through 33 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 44-369 (+94.97*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
- - The week started with a 59, and so, so close to a 300/1 payoff. Greatly enhances my definite propensity for above average weeks immediately after one of the four men's majors, when the capping motivation isn't always there, but the ANGLES and INFORMATION are frequently at a peak.
GL
Outrights YTD: 44-369 (+94.97*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
- - The week started with a 59, and so, so close to a 300/1 payoff. Greatly enhances my definite propensity for above average weeks immediately after one of the four men's majors, when the capping motivation isn't always there, but the ANGLES and INFORMATION are frequently at a peak.
GL
Northern Trust:
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(18/1) e.w.
- - I’ve seen stats broken down that are consistent with Jordan’s claims of being close, so I’d rather be on board a week or two early instead of a week or two late.
Stewart Cink(100/1) e.w.
- - It’s been a LONG journey, so IMO Cink has to be relishing the taste of the bit in his mouth, and IMO the time and place line up just fine, with Destination East Lake very much a goal.
Gary Woodland(66/1) e.w.
- - Woodland holds his good form and bad form more so than most. Says he’s on point, and although I doubted his chops to deliver from out in front at a major, he’s likely looking for some redemption, seasoned with some up close Tiger exposure.
Kevin Streelman(150/1) e.w.
- - A run of 4th, 10th and disappointing 46th at a place that holds more meaning for Streelman than quite possibly anyone else in the field qualifies as attractive course form in my catechism, and a 7th place in his late season current form offers some hope.
https://www.pgatour.com/beyond-the-...idgewood-country-club-the-northern-trust.html
Sam Saunders(275/1) e.w.
- - Saunders has been on the outside looking in at events of this stature, and he’s playing awesome enough to perhaps flip a switch toward making some noise.
Jamie Lovemark(200/1) e.w.
- - I’ll take a stab per another punter’s analysis that Ridgewood has classic, quirky and shot value elements that are right up Lovemark’s street.
Brandt Snedeker(45/1) e.w.
- - Sneds could be emotionally spent after the events of last week, but I won’t be picking up this winning marker, and a former FedEx Cup Champion has exhibited momentum before under playoff circumstances.
Phil Mickelson(90/1) e.w.
- - I can’t abide that price unless Lefty’s form and narratives are pretty sour . . . Joining the twitter universe this week doesn’t seem on point with a moment of struggles and disinterest.
Sean O’Hair(600/1) e.w.
- - IMO, lame as it might be, I think there is definitely something wrongish in a price that says O’Hair has the least chance of all.
Kyle Stanley(90/1) e.w.
- - I’ve given enough serious consideration to the likes of Dechambeau, Na, Schauffele, Matsuyama and Knox to be kicking myself if they deliver, but I’ll let Stanley carry my remaining cash.
GL
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(18/1) e.w.
- - I’ve seen stats broken down that are consistent with Jordan’s claims of being close, so I’d rather be on board a week or two early instead of a week or two late.
Stewart Cink(100/1) e.w.
- - It’s been a LONG journey, so IMO Cink has to be relishing the taste of the bit in his mouth, and IMO the time and place line up just fine, with Destination East Lake very much a goal.
Gary Woodland(66/1) e.w.
- - Woodland holds his good form and bad form more so than most. Says he’s on point, and although I doubted his chops to deliver from out in front at a major, he’s likely looking for some redemption, seasoned with some up close Tiger exposure.
Kevin Streelman(150/1) e.w.
- - A run of 4th, 10th and disappointing 46th at a place that holds more meaning for Streelman than quite possibly anyone else in the field qualifies as attractive course form in my catechism, and a 7th place in his late season current form offers some hope.
https://www.pgatour.com/beyond-the-...idgewood-country-club-the-northern-trust.html
Sam Saunders(275/1) e.w.
- - Saunders has been on the outside looking in at events of this stature, and he’s playing awesome enough to perhaps flip a switch toward making some noise.
Jamie Lovemark(200/1) e.w.
- - I’ll take a stab per another punter’s analysis that Ridgewood has classic, quirky and shot value elements that are right up Lovemark’s street.
Brandt Snedeker(45/1) e.w.
- - Sneds could be emotionally spent after the events of last week, but I won’t be picking up this winning marker, and a former FedEx Cup Champion has exhibited momentum before under playoff circumstances.
Phil Mickelson(90/1) e.w.
- - I can’t abide that price unless Lefty’s form and narratives are pretty sour . . . Joining the twitter universe this week doesn’t seem on point with a moment of struggles and disinterest.
Sean O’Hair(600/1) e.w.
- - IMO, lame as it might be, I think there is definitely something wrongish in a price that says O’Hair has the least chance of all.
Kyle Stanley(90/1) e.w.
- - I’ve given enough serious consideration to the likes of Dechambeau, Na, Schauffele, Matsuyama and Knox to be kicking myself if they deliver, but I’ll let Stanley carry my remaining cash.
GL
Boeing Classic:
Outrights:
Michael Bradley(100/1) e.w.
Kirk Triplett(50/1) e.w.
Tim Petrovic(30/1) e.w.
- - Bradley was overlooked on the capping printout I was working from, but I never intended to pick up that almost winning marker. It appears Jobe is no longer in the field, so my alternate is Triplett. And after the further capping I'll add Petrovic as well (over Parel, Perry or Jimenez).
GL
Outrights:
Michael Bradley(100/1) e.w.
Kirk Triplett(50/1) e.w.
Tim Petrovic(30/1) e.w.
- - Bradley was overlooked on the capping printout I was working from, but I never intended to pick up that almost winning marker. It appears Jobe is no longer in the field, so my alternate is Triplett. And after the further capping I'll add Petrovic as well (over Parel, Perry or Jimenez).
GL
- - Having documented a close sniff of both a four stroke winner in DeChambeau(66/1 e.w.), and a three stroke winner in Parel(30/1 e.w.), it's at least one too many that got away to not at least follow through with documentation that I'm kicking myself.
****************
****************
Through 34 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 44-390 (+73.97*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
GL
Dell Technologies:
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
Billy Horschel(50/1) e.w.
Charley Hoffman(100/1) e.w.
Bryson DeChambeau(33/1) e.w.
Louis Oosthuizen(60/1) e.w.
Nick Watney(200/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Hideki Matsuyama(35/1) e.w.
Stewart Cink(140/1) e.w.
Bubba Watson(80/1) e.w.
Gary Woodland(80/1) e.w.
GL
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
Billy Horschel(50/1) e.w.
Charley Hoffman(100/1) e.w.
Bryson DeChambeau(33/1) e.w.
Louis Oosthuizen(60/1) e.w.
Nick Watney(200/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Hideki Matsuyama(35/1) e.w.
Stewart Cink(140/1) e.w.
Bubba Watson(80/1) e.w.
Gary Woodland(80/1) e.w.
GL
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
- - Last week I had a large number of long shots that were definitely "in the hunt to some extent" (at least for a Top 5) after 36 holes, including Jamie Lovemark(200/1) tied for the lead, Chase Koepka(400/1 e.w.) somewhere way over in central Europe, Sean O'Hair(600/1 e.w.), and others. Then even though at the start of the week my capping had me betting very much against the short favorites coming out on top at the Northern Trust, and even though I still felt very much the same after 36 holes, the fact is I looked at my player roster on Friday night and was expecting nothing but a march down the leaderboard (which definitely happened early and often) (the one player I held out the most hope for was Mr. 600/1 Sean O'Hair, and he acquitted himself just O.K.) . . . On to this week, and while I liked my effort and roster in Europe, the takeaways from my capping the PGA Tour for this week are as follows: (1) I feel it is much more likely that this week the Sunday leaderboard will be heavy with the cream of the crop of current players; (2) I had much less time for capping this week than during the past several weeks; (3) I can't pick up my winning marker on Snedeker, and I am playing as though I am not picking up the winning marker that should have been on DeChambeau; and (4) in making final decisions of whom to pull the trigger on during the last hour, my one minimum criteria was that I would probably not be pessimistic about their movement on the weekend leaderboard if they did get heavily involved in the proceedings.
GL
- - Last week I had a large number of long shots that were definitely "in the hunt to some extent" (at least for a Top 5) after 36 holes, including Jamie Lovemark(200/1) tied for the lead, Chase Koepka(400/1 e.w.) somewhere way over in central Europe, Sean O'Hair(600/1 e.w.), and others. Then even though at the start of the week my capping had me betting very much against the short favorites coming out on top at the Northern Trust, and even though I still felt very much the same after 36 holes, the fact is I looked at my player roster on Friday night and was expecting nothing but a march down the leaderboard (which definitely happened early and often) (the one player I held out the most hope for was Mr. 600/1 Sean O'Hair, and he acquitted himself just O.K.) . . . On to this week, and while I liked my effort and roster in Europe, the takeaways from my capping the PGA Tour for this week are as follows: (1) I feel it is much more likely that this week the Sunday leaderboard will be heavy with the cream of the crop of current players; (2) I had much less time for capping this week than during the past several weeks; (3) I can't pick up my winning marker on Snedeker, and I am playing as though I am not picking up the winning marker that should have been on DeChambeau; and (4) in making final decisions of whom to pull the trigger on during the last hour, my one minimum criteria was that I would probably not be pessimistic about their movement on the weekend leaderboard if they did get heavily involved in the proceedings.
GL
Through 35 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 47-408 (+83.52*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
Omega Masters:
Outrights:
Matt Wallace(25/1) e.w.
Robert Rock(55/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(28/1) e.w.
Richie Ramsay(50/1) e.w.
Andres Romero(150/1) e.w.
Nino Bertasio(80/1) e.w.
Lee Slattery(75/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(250/1) e.w.
Adrian Otaegui(55/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(28/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(250/1) e.w.
GL
Outrights YTD: 47-408 (+83.52*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
Omega Masters:
Outrights:
Matt Wallace(25/1) e.w.
Robert Rock(55/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(28/1) e.w.
Richie Ramsay(50/1) e.w.
Andres Romero(150/1) e.w.
Nino Bertasio(80/1) e.w.
Lee Slattery(75/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(250/1) e.w.
Adrian Otaegui(55/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(28/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(250/1) e.w.
GL
BMW Championship:
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
- - Definitely class, definitely displaying extended form that seems so close to a breakthrough reward, but also being his own worst enemy for some reason or another. With some level of pressure to perform at 27th in FedEx points, and a very interesting marquee pairing with Fowler and Woods, he definitely gets a chance to carry my cash again this week.
Hideki Matsuyama(20/1) e.w.
- - Some excellent play of late, but the price is not inviting.
Tiger Woods(22/1) e.w.
- - Breaking it down as generous but sloping fairways, demanding approaches on the revamp that reward patience, judgment and excellence, typical Donald Ross greens that put serious demands on the short game and putting, maybe even some scary winds on the weekend, and a fairly flat performance last weekend while paired with DeChambeau and Koepka. I think this is the only time this year other than Carnoustie and Firestone when I will have ventured out with Tiger carrying my cash.
Bryson DeChambeau(16/1) e.w.
- - Seems unlikely to stack another win, but not picking up a winning marker.
C.T. Pan(90/1) e.w.
- - With a limited field of 70 known quantities, and only 23 names ticked for consideration after my initial capping, it wasn’t a stretch to give at least a few minutes of focused research on a whole passel of likely suspects, and settle upon the most preferred INFORMATION and ANGLES, for good or bad . . . Based on recent viewing, I’ve got C.T. Pan on the brain from Wyndham and Boston as a threat to get to East Lake by doing great things.
Kyle Stanley(66/1) e.w.
- - Has achieved well on classic east coast venues, and sort of like him right now when getting some opportunities on the biggest stages, but don’t know why his putter would cooperate this week.
Bubba Watson(55/1) e.w.
- - Usually his best at a handful of familiar tracks, but this underappreciated classic course perhaps offers a pleasing mix of definition and “wide berths”. Regardless, some trending form and a generous price for a proven winner of big events.
J.J. Spaun(400/1) e.w.
- - Was not included in the 23 names I had in mind after my initial capping, but upon further analysis this play eclipsed the other long shots as offering good value and a punchers chance.
GL
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
- - Definitely class, definitely displaying extended form that seems so close to a breakthrough reward, but also being his own worst enemy for some reason or another. With some level of pressure to perform at 27th in FedEx points, and a very interesting marquee pairing with Fowler and Woods, he definitely gets a chance to carry my cash again this week.
Hideki Matsuyama(20/1) e.w.
- - Some excellent play of late, but the price is not inviting.
Tiger Woods(22/1) e.w.
- - Breaking it down as generous but sloping fairways, demanding approaches on the revamp that reward patience, judgment and excellence, typical Donald Ross greens that put serious demands on the short game and putting, maybe even some scary winds on the weekend, and a fairly flat performance last weekend while paired with DeChambeau and Koepka. I think this is the only time this year other than Carnoustie and Firestone when I will have ventured out with Tiger carrying my cash.
Bryson DeChambeau(16/1) e.w.
- - Seems unlikely to stack another win, but not picking up a winning marker.
C.T. Pan(90/1) e.w.
- - With a limited field of 70 known quantities, and only 23 names ticked for consideration after my initial capping, it wasn’t a stretch to give at least a few minutes of focused research on a whole passel of likely suspects, and settle upon the most preferred INFORMATION and ANGLES, for good or bad . . . Based on recent viewing, I’ve got C.T. Pan on the brain from Wyndham and Boston as a threat to get to East Lake by doing great things.
Kyle Stanley(66/1) e.w.
- - Has achieved well on classic east coast venues, and sort of like him right now when getting some opportunities on the biggest stages, but don’t know why his putter would cooperate this week.
Bubba Watson(55/1) e.w.
- - Usually his best at a handful of familiar tracks, but this underappreciated classic course perhaps offers a pleasing mix of definition and “wide berths”. Regardless, some trending form and a generous price for a proven winner of big events.
J.J. Spaun(400/1) e.w.
- - Was not included in the 23 names I had in mind after my initial capping, but upon further analysis this play eclipsed the other long shots as offering good value and a punchers chance.
GL
Through 37 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 48-432 (+184.52*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
A winning bet that matches my biggest longshot ever of Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w at the 2009 U.S. Open (an event which also included a 5th for Ross Fisher at 125/1 e.w.), although Stanford was for smaller stakes. Actually, Sunday’s result was equaled earlier this year with a 3rd place finish on Trevor Immelman(1000/1) e.w. . . But my most amazing week ever is still from 2006 when I hit winners with both Stephen Ames (150/1 e.w.) and Jean Van de Velde(100/1 e.w.).
I know my time tonight would be better spent capping golf and football, but I’d rather reflect for a while on a memorable season.
“Angela Stanford in a major” was definitely "high on on my list" of "players I want to be on when they win". She has been an auto-play every year in the U.S. Women’s Open, ANA Inspiration, and Evian because simply put, time after time I would track how she would play seriously well while carrying my cash in those events in order to justify more plays . . . Watching her rack up the birdies on my computer during a stunning 64 on Friday, then a string of 4 straight birdies while I was watching on TV on Saturday, and I was pretty hopeful her narrative would make for a truly distinguished effort on Sunday. I was certainly glued to the proceedings on Sunday as she made a stunning eagle on 15, and then holed a stunning 25 foot birdie putt on 17 to bounce back from a memorable double bogie, and then piped her drive down 18, and I definitely and literally stood up and applauded on four occasions on Sunday as simply put, I realized that as long as she finished 5th or better, I was in that moment enjoying my reward for being faithful. Whether 5th or 1st, it would have felt incredibly hollow if I hadn’t been on board, but no problem there. Amazing and Righteous.
( Looking back, Tiger Woods in a major (28/1) at Carnoustie would have been super high on my list of players I want to be on when they win, and I was super bummed when it slipped away. Looking forward, I have to put Sam Saunders ahead of Lucas Glover as my current #1 want . . . Jean Van de Velde is the name that was my most wanted EVER on that "list".
)
*********************************************
This also a good time to look back at my first post of the year on January 5:
Although 312.5 units of my 184.52 units of profits for the year have come from just 3 plays (Angela Stanford, Trevor Immelman and Steve Flesch(100/1 e.w.), I have not been whiffing on my other 477 outright plays to date. I remember distinctly the first sign of good things to come came modestly enough with Jason Day(22/1 e.w.) at the Farmer’s Open in Week#4, and many, many plays since have offered real chances week after week after week. I definitely persevered all season and didn’t get frustrated before Immelman in July finally got me into positive territory for the season. It’s been very fun to discover again that I can trust my stuff when it includes doing the work . . . The only area where I have slacked off this season is in making consistent and serious efforts to make in-running wagers.
*********************************************
Finally, this seems like a good time to remember exactly how I landed a 3rd place on Trevor Immelman(1000/1 e.w.) . . . That story truly begins with Andres Romero at the U.S. Open in 2017. When I saw Romero qualified in 2017, I hemmed and hawed, and finally settled on a small wager for Top European at around 200/1 e.w. I was then tracking his scoring for 36 holes and thought I detected a steady pulse despite missing the cut by 5 strokes, but carding 6 birdies in rounds of 74 and 76. The following week his price was 600/1 e.w at the BMW in Germany, on a track that seemed to me virtually ideal for a staging a comeback from years in the wilderness, but I just didn’t pull the trigger. Lo and behold, Romero wins, which is not just my biggest regret for 2017, but for several years . . . Fast forward to 2018, and I don’t really recall anything except the price that had me “privately” dabble with a tiny wager on Immelman for the Irish Open. Then for two days I saw plain as day on my computer that he was dishing out some answers to the test, but the final result was some sort of bizarre combo of double bogie and a DQ on the 36th hole that sent him packing. Then it was on to the Scottish Open the next week and it was a no-brainer for me to conclude that the venue was more suitable, the narrative was intriguing, and there was value (and a mistake) in his price being the same as it was the prior week. At that point, I told myself multiple times before Thursday that I was not going to pull an Andres Romero, and Immelman was the first bet (nothing significant) I made for the week. Gotta trust my stuff. Thank you, Trevor.
GL
Outrights YTD: 48-432 (+184.52*)
Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
A winning bet that matches my biggest longshot ever of Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w at the 2009 U.S. Open (an event which also included a 5th for Ross Fisher at 125/1 e.w.), although Stanford was for smaller stakes. Actually, Sunday’s result was equaled earlier this year with a 3rd place finish on Trevor Immelman(1000/1) e.w. . . But my most amazing week ever is still from 2006 when I hit winners with both Stephen Ames (150/1 e.w.) and Jean Van de Velde(100/1 e.w.).
I know my time tonight would be better spent capping golf and football, but I’d rather reflect for a while on a memorable season.
“Angela Stanford in a major” was definitely "high on on my list" of "players I want to be on when they win". She has been an auto-play every year in the U.S. Women’s Open, ANA Inspiration, and Evian because simply put, time after time I would track how she would play seriously well while carrying my cash in those events in order to justify more plays . . . Watching her rack up the birdies on my computer during a stunning 64 on Friday, then a string of 4 straight birdies while I was watching on TV on Saturday, and I was pretty hopeful her narrative would make for a truly distinguished effort on Sunday. I was certainly glued to the proceedings on Sunday as she made a stunning eagle on 15, and then holed a stunning 25 foot birdie putt on 17 to bounce back from a memorable double bogie, and then piped her drive down 18, and I definitely and literally stood up and applauded on four occasions on Sunday as simply put, I realized that as long as she finished 5th or better, I was in that moment enjoying my reward for being faithful. Whether 5th or 1st, it would have felt incredibly hollow if I hadn’t been on board, but no problem there. Amazing and Righteous.
( Looking back, Tiger Woods in a major (28/1) at Carnoustie would have been super high on my list of players I want to be on when they win, and I was super bummed when it slipped away. Looking forward, I have to put Sam Saunders ahead of Lucas Glover as my current #1 want . . . Jean Van de Velde is the name that was my most wanted EVER on that "list".
)*********************************************
This also a good time to look back at my first post of the year on January 5:
Although 312.5 units of my 184.52 units of profits for the year have come from just 3 plays (Angela Stanford, Trevor Immelman and Steve Flesch(100/1 e.w.), I have not been whiffing on my other 477 outright plays to date. I remember distinctly the first sign of good things to come came modestly enough with Jason Day(22/1 e.w.) at the Farmer’s Open in Week#4, and many, many plays since have offered real chances week after week after week. I definitely persevered all season and didn’t get frustrated before Immelman in July finally got me into positive territory for the season. It’s been very fun to discover again that I can trust my stuff when it includes doing the work . . . The only area where I have slacked off this season is in making consistent and serious efforts to make in-running wagers.
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Finally, this seems like a good time to remember exactly how I landed a 3rd place on Trevor Immelman(1000/1 e.w.) . . . That story truly begins with Andres Romero at the U.S. Open in 2017. When I saw Romero qualified in 2017, I hemmed and hawed, and finally settled on a small wager for Top European at around 200/1 e.w. I was then tracking his scoring for 36 holes and thought I detected a steady pulse despite missing the cut by 5 strokes, but carding 6 birdies in rounds of 74 and 76. The following week his price was 600/1 e.w at the BMW in Germany, on a track that seemed to me virtually ideal for a staging a comeback from years in the wilderness, but I just didn’t pull the trigger. Lo and behold, Romero wins, which is not just my biggest regret for 2017, but for several years . . . Fast forward to 2018, and I don’t really recall anything except the price that had me “privately” dabble with a tiny wager on Immelman for the Irish Open. Then for two days I saw plain as day on my computer that he was dishing out some answers to the test, but the final result was some sort of bizarre combo of double bogie and a DQ on the 36th hole that sent him packing. Then it was on to the Scottish Open the next week and it was a no-brainer for me to conclude that the venue was more suitable, the narrative was intriguing, and there was value (and a mistake) in his price being the same as it was the prior week. At that point, I told myself multiple times before Thursday that I was not going to pull an Andres Romero, and Immelman was the first bet (nothing significant) I made for the week. Gotta trust my stuff. Thank you, Trevor.
GL
