Total = 6-0 +1.6442
2008 Friendlies = 6-0 +1.6442
Posting some Euro plays. Haven't really gone through everything and figured out what I like, where and how far, but these are in already. All plays are for group stages.
Portugal -268 to advance 4.02 to win 1.5
Switzerland -132 to be eliminated 1.32 to win 1
Germany -736 to advance 7.36 to win 1
Austria -533 to be eliminated 10.66 to win 2
Spain -395 to advance 5.925 to win 1.5
2008 Friendlies = 6-0 +1.6442
Posting some Euro plays. Haven't really gone through everything and figured out what I like, where and how far, but these are in already. All plays are for group stages.
Portugal -268 to advance 4.02 to win 1.5
Switzerland -132 to be eliminated 1.32 to win 1
Germany -736 to advance 7.36 to win 1
Austria -533 to be eliminated 10.66 to win 2
Spain -395 to advance 5.925 to win 1.5
Total = 7-0 +1.9014
2008 Friendlies = 7-0 +1.9014
6/4
Spain -280 2.3234 to win .8298
Spain Draw +366 .6766 to win 2.4764
Mexico PK +263 .25 to win .6575
Spain play is Spain +.5, -1959 risking 5 units to win .2552
My take on Mexico/Argentina:
First, the game is played in the US and there will be a pro Mexico crowd. They will also, for the first time, be playing in front of their new manager Sven Goren Erickson meaning pretty much everyone is playing for a position in his squad. They also handle business fairly well against the South American teams, often better than they do against the Americans. They lost in ET to the Argies in WC06 on Maxi Rodriguez ridiculous volley, a game they probably should have won (Rafa Marquez, one of the dumbest players in the world, gave away a horrendous penalty on a handball in the box). Mexico has a nice collection of younger guys and as noted above, I think they will be out to impress Erickson. Most of the Argies also haven't played in well over a month whereas the home-based Mexicans have all played more recently. Do I think Mexico is better than Argentina, no, but combining the pro-US crowd with their likely desire to play their asses off for Erickson and the long odds on a PK, I think it is worth a small play.
2008 Friendlies = 7-0 +1.9014
6/4
Spain -280 2.3234 to win .8298
Spain Draw +366 .6766 to win 2.4764
Mexico PK +263 .25 to win .6575
Spain play is Spain +.5, -1959 risking 5 units to win .2552
My take on Mexico/Argentina:
First, the game is played in the US and there will be a pro Mexico crowd. They will also, for the first time, be playing in front of their new manager Sven Goren Erickson meaning pretty much everyone is playing for a position in his squad. They also handle business fairly well against the South American teams, often better than they do against the Americans. They lost in ET to the Argies in WC06 on Maxi Rodriguez ridiculous volley, a game they probably should have won (Rafa Marquez, one of the dumbest players in the world, gave away a horrendous penalty on a handball in the box). Mexico has a nice collection of younger guys and as noted above, I think they will be out to impress Erickson. Most of the Argies also haven't played in well over a month whereas the home-based Mexicans have all played more recently. Do I think Mexico is better than Argentina, no, but combining the pro-US crowd with their likely desire to play their asses off for Erickson and the long odds on a PK, I think it is worth a small play.
Just realized I messed up the Spain play so I am re-posting both. I made it at two different times and forgot to add the amount of the second plays to the numbers.
6/4
Spain -280 3.8724 to win 1.383
Spain Draw +366 1.1277 to win 4.1274
Mexico PK +263 .25 to win .6575
Spain play is Spain +.5, -1959 risking 5 units to win .2552
6/4
Spain -280 3.8724 to win 1.383
Spain Draw +366 1.1277 to win 4.1274
Mexico PK +263 .25 to win .6575
Spain play is Spain +.5, -1959 risking 5 units to win .2552
Brazil loses 0-2
-4.9993
YTD:
Total = 8-2 -3.0926
2008 Friendlies = 8-2 -3.0926
6/7 & 6/8
- Portugal PK -427 - 2.135 to win .5
- Portugal +.5 (-660)/Croatia +.5 (-465)/Germany +.5 (-820) - 2 to win 1.1396
- Portugal +.5/Croatia +.5 - 2 to win .7983
- Croatia +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .7265
- Portugal +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .5839
Pending, previously posted:
Portugal -268 to advance 4.02 to win 1.5
Switzerland -132 to be eliminated 1.32 to win 1
Germany -736 to advance 7.36 to win 1
Austria -533 to be eliminated 10.66 to win 2
Spain -395 to advance 5.925 to win 1.5
6/7 & 6/8
- Portugal PK -427 - 2.135 to win .5 - winner
- Portugal 1-0 +497 .25 to win 1.2425 - loser
- Portugal 2-0 +620 .25 to win 1.55 - winner
- Portugal 2-1 +740 .25 to win 1.85 - loser
Still pending:
- Portugal +.5 (-660)/Croatia +.5 (-465)/Germany +.5 (-820) - 2 to win 1.1396
- Portugal +.5/Croatia +.5 - 2 to win .7983
- Croatia +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .7265
- Portugal +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .5839
- Portugal -268 to advance 4.02 to win 1.5
- Switzerland -132 to be eliminated 1.32 to win 1
- Germany -736 to advance 7.36 to win 1
- Austria -533 to be eliminated 10.66 to win 2
- Spain -395 to advance 5.925 to win 1.5
6/7, 2-2 +1.55
YTD:
Total = 10-4 -1.5426
2008 Friendlies = 8-2 -3.0926
Euro 2008 = 2-2 +1.55
Adding for 6/8
- Germany -1 -121 1.21 to win 1
- Klose to score first goal +477 .25 to win 1.1925
- Portugal PK -427 - 2.135 to win .5 - winner
- Portugal 1-0 +497 .25 to win 1.2425 - loser
- Portugal 2-0 +620 .25 to win 1.55 - winner
- Portugal 2-1 +740 .25 to win 1.85 - loser
Still pending:
- Portugal +.5 (-660)/Croatia +.5 (-465)/Germany +.5 (-820) - 2 to win 1.1396
- Portugal +.5/Croatia +.5 - 2 to win .7983
- Croatia +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .7265
- Portugal +.5/Germany +.5 - 2 to win .5839
- Portugal -268 to advance 4.02 to win 1.5
- Switzerland -132 to be eliminated 1.32 to win 1
- Germany -736 to advance 7.36 to win 1
- Austria -533 to be eliminated 10.66 to win 2
- Spain -395 to advance 5.925 to win 1.5
6/7, 2-2 +1.55
YTD:
Total = 10-4 -1.5426
2008 Friendlies = 8-2 -3.0926
Euro 2008 = 2-2 +1.55
Adding for 6/8
- Germany -1 -121 1.21 to win 1
- Klose to score first goal +477 .25 to win 1.1925
