FYI:
**Special-TOP RATED DOG PLAY OF THE WEEK ON: (5 Units)
Hawaii +10 (buy .5pt)
First of all...this number it opened at is crap...You mean to tell me that the # 17 ranked team in the BCS poll is only a TD favorite over a 4-6 team from the weak WAC Conf....LOL...I mean, I did witness this Wisconsin team beat Purdue (a preseason top 25 team)....Badgers should of beaten NW (another team that was ranked and who did beat Iowa)...They beat N Carolina on the road (a team who beat # 18 ranked BCS team)...They did beat Minny at Minny (a team that beat Michigan in the Big House..and was also ranked at one time)....And, I did witness this Badger team beat Michigan (a team who is also in the BCS ranking and a team who was the only one to beat BCS #3 ranked team in Penn St)...In addition to this, didnt the Badgers go into 2nd to last week of the Big Ten schedule playing for a tie for first place in the Big Ten Conf as well...The Big Ten, a conference which I might add also does currently have 4 BCS ranked teams, including Wisconsin in its poll...A conference who at one time or another this season also had 9 teams gaining national rankings from the start of the season to current...So with all of this on the Badgers resume, is this team only favored by a TD or less to my Warriors?
Well, could be a Trap set up by the Boys in Vegas to get money on the Badgers as they feel Hawaii is good at home...or it could be that they feel Wisconsin is overrated...Or maybe, they are doing that old reverse Trap crap, I keep hearing about...trying to catch people going with Hawaii because of those two wins over NW and Mich St last year in the islands, when both teams came in needing to win to go bowling, but ended up being beaten by the Warriors, and remarkably in back to back weeks as well...The books could of set this line to catch Warrior backers due to those 2 wins last season being still fresh on the mines of everyone...
Well, whatever the case my be...I feel it is another bullshit line, for whatever reasons...This, is one reason why I do not spend all my time watching lines or caring to much about what Vegas is trying to do...No one will know with any certainty anyway, whats really going on...So, why waste your time assuming or guessing...I, rather stick to what is working for me and that is the plain old Fundamental and Situational Handicapping Methods, which have over the years were incorporated in with my own personal experience in this game, as a player, coach, scout, trainer, etc...Not to mention also, my personal ties and contacts, with players past and present, as well as, coaches and personal involved with this team...This has always netted me a profit when it comes to Warrior sports and this year in FB and CBB is no different as we are 5-1 ATS in FB (only lost was vs Fresno St..and by 72 secs left to play)..and 1-0 ATS in CBB, so far this year....I dont win them all, but I sure as hell will give you the best info, insights, and personal knowledge, based on my present and past experiences, that no one else will have...So with that said, here is just some of that info and insights for you on this one....Going to try my best to keep it very short so that I wont bore or put you to sleep...LOL.
First, the Warriors are not going bowling for the first time in the last 4 years....You would think it would result in discouraging circumstances...However it has not, and the Warriors blowing out Utah St, two weeks ago was a good indication of that it is not....One reason, is because of this game vs the Big Ten's nationally ranked Wisconsin Badgers....This is the Warriors Bowl Game...and this regular season game, if won will do more for this Warrior FB program and Coach Jones, plan to get the Warriors to national prominance...He already taken the Warriors to that level in the past years, with a win over Oregon St in the Aloha Bowl...Then a big upset win over the legendary Alabama Crimson Tide, a couple of years later....and then with last season's two big wins over NW and Mich St from the Big Ten....You did notice that I missed talking about the other 3 bowl games that came inbetween these big victories didnt you....Well, I didso because this game is a much bigger game than any of those Bowl games were....Why?...Because this is a game against the Big Ten's national BCS ranked team..and not a team from Conf Usa...
Of course, this game is not as big as if we could of beaten #1 USC this year....But it is definately a bigger game then even those against Alabama, NW, and Mich St were...Again, you may be wondering why....Well because those teams were not ranked in the BCS, and they were on seemingly down years, when Hawaii upset them...This year is not a down year...and this opponent is currently ranked in the BCS poll...So, when I say this is a big game...believe me, this is a Big One....Now with that part out of the way....Lets go on to some advantages I feel will play a big part in helping the Warriors tonight..
The Warriors are not 100% healthy and will be without several key players..but, this has been the case since last season..so they have already adjusted and should have enough depth to cover it, barring no further losses in this game...But with some players missing this game...other key players be available for this game...One of them is starting DE Mel Purcell, who is the best lineman they have..and who most were stating could be better than the Tenn Titans LaBoy, who he replaced...His return in this game is Key because defensive ends are very important to defending this Wisconsin offense, who relies heavily on a perimeter running attack, led by the nations leader in TDs, RB Calhoun (22 TDs)....Purcells return is also important because his immediate replacement, who moved over to replace the injured Purcell, is also nursing an injury and is questionable for this game...Purcell is one of the leaders on this defense and he makes big plays in the backfield, so his presence, his size, and his speed is something that will help the Warriors defense both against the run...but moreso, against the pass..
Dont expect to see the Warriors play man up and smash mouth football agains the Badgers....no no no, this wont happen at all because the Warriors are not built to play that style...But expect them to fuckin bring the house on QB Stoco, with blitzes up the ying yang today...Glanville will Kamikaze out on him, especially when its an obvious passing situation...and this OL better be ready...A thing that will also help this defense out is the fact that Wisconsin likes to run the ball...Gang, it is fuckin hot and humid right now...about 3 hours till gametime...and its going to be even hotter and humid then...Wisconsin coming from a colder area wont be able to handle this heat and humidity and it will wear on them...Believe me, other teams who liked to run it with their Big Uglies..ie, LA Tech and RB Moats, Alabama with RB Williams...both couldnt handle playing in this heat and humidity...and these guys came from weather worst than this....Just like how a warm weather team gets affected when it needs to travel to a cold weather state to play...well, the same can be true when a cold weather team comes to play in very warm weather...They dont have time to climatize..and by mid 3rd quarter is when this heat + humidity + Jetlag + all the running around by Fat Heavy players start to wear on them....Secret ingredient..could be...Advantage to the Warriors, definately..
This will also help the offense of the Warriors as well...because of the running around that the Badgers secondary must do...and also all the pass rushing the Big Dogs from the defense will be doing, all game long...Hawaii has alot of depth at WR's and they use it alot to their advantage at home...However, they dont just use players as decoys...no not like last season when most of the passes either went to WR Dickerson or SB Owens....No this season, Hawaii, beside their tandem Fr WR sensations Bess and Grace-Mullen, who by the way avg approx 100+ yards receiving a game and who scored 21 TDs...they also have 8 WRs who have caught DD's passes on the year and 17 WRs who have at least 2 or more catches...All in all, 19 different receivers have caught at least 1 pass this season for the Warriors....and 8 different receivers have caught a TD pass as well...All I know, is everyone one of Wisconsin secondary, including LB'ers will get a workout today...something like what they got when they played NW...Only difference being the amount of times they actually be dropping into pass coverage...Advantage goes to Hawaii here as they have the solid depth and WRs to keep them working all game long...and because Wisconsin wont be ready for a wide open attack like this one....Alabama wasnt, Mich St wasnt, and also NW's defense wasnt...Wisconsin, I say wont either, because they play in a conf were defense and running are the way they play...
An advantage for both teams is that they both had two weeks to prepare for eachother...But common, do you think Wisky prepared enough for the Warriors or just prepared to come to the tropical island of Hawaii..a place where most would never even have a chance to ever visit outside of this game...I dont believe like everyone is saying that Wisky will want to get Alvarez his last regular season win for him...I think they are more concerned with getting that last bowl win for him instead....Plus, Wisconsin's trend in the past seasons is that they seem to always come out of the blocks fast and then start to falter down the stretch...Last season is a perfect example, as they came out strong recording 9 wins and with the defense allowing just 9.1 ppg...only to lose their last 3 games where they gave up 34.3 ppg....Hmmm, doesnt this year seem to be mirroring Wisky's season ending trends...as they have lost their last two games and also in the process given up 35 pts and 20 pts in those losses...I believe that they will follow their late season trend of ending it with losses...And one reason is because they play in a tough conference, that is smash mouth football and these things do take a toll on your body, so its only natural that it will catch up to you at sometime...But, losing like this late in the season could also say alot about their conditioning program as well....Late in the season, when its cold and snowing..and not much continued running, conditioning, or hitting is done, inorder to avoid injuries or even to allow the injured to heal up more for that bowl game...If this is the case, than that is definately not a good thing for Wisky coming here to play in hot weather and after such a long trip....You need to be in shape to play the Warriors at home, and this is moreso true for your defense...cause you will do a hell of alot of running around...
Speaking of defenses though...Wisky, if they came in with last season's defensive front intact...I would have to be concerned abit as they were bad ass...This year though, I am not because they only return 4 from last season and their whole defensive front four is gone gone gone...leaving them with youngins in the trenches...One strength to Hawaii's offense is in their offensive line...This is why Hawaii has been so successful year after year running this type of offense...The Big Uglies are the ones that should get the credit but it doesnt as usual, but I will tell you...when it comes to producing solid Offensive lineman...Coach C for the Warriors has done a fantastic job...If I am not mistaken, every year since he has coached with Jones at Hawaii...he has had an OL get drafted...Last season, OG Manuwai was drafted and now starts for Jacksonville in the NFL...This year, Hawaii may have lost alot of its skilled players in QB Timmy Chang...and WR's Owens...but one big reason why this offense led by soph QB Brennan and a bunch of Fr WRs have been able to rank again 2nd in the nation in passing offense..is mostly due to these veterans in the trenches for the Warriors...This is another area where I feel the Badgers will be outmatched...and will be controlled from pressuring QB Brennan...and when this happens, I expect Brennan who is accurate as hell to do his damage again..
Side note: QB Brennan, is #1 in the nation completing 68.7% of his passess...averages 357.2 ypg passing ..has thrown 27 TDs to just 11 ints...And, the Warriors are averaging 32 completions a game...this is about the same amount of attempts that the Badgers are used to seeing per game, and its their avg amount being completed....Solid!
Ok...I going to wind this shit down...The number 2 is key to a Warriors win today....They had 2 weeks to prepare for Wisky...They have 2 former NFL Head Coaches preparing the gameplan for Wisky....The Warriors are returning 2 key players on defense....The Warriors have 2 nationally ranked WRs (in the top 25) that Wisky wont be able to stop...Wisky has already lost their last 2 games and are following their late season trend of losing....2 times Hawaii will be on National TV and we all saw how they took Fresno to the limit with many chances of even will outright as a dd dog....The Warriors have already beaten 2 Big Ten teams in NW and Mich St...2 little respect is given to the Warriors....Looks like 2 many of the public is on the Badgers which is driving this line up alot....It was just 2 damn long a trip for Wisky to recover from to be able to play up to their full potential...Its 2 close to Christmas time when wisky is usually use to the cool weather.....It will be 2 damn Hot for the Big Uglies and Big Dawgs on Wisky to have to deal with chasing Hawaii's little runts around all game long...There is just 2 many damn distrations to keep Wisky's minds on FB...and one of them is 2 many damn beautiful Chicks...And last but not least because I am just 2 damn tired of typing...is the FACT that the Warriors in this situation is just 2 damn pumped up with Pride, Focus, and Motivation..as they want to show the rest of the mainland..that no one comes here and Kicks Our Ass Without a Fight....And although, I always have said this and that is the reasons to why teams come here and struggle, it seems that these big time schools always come in taking the Warriors 2 damn lightly and that is 2 damn Stupid!....Ok, I ran out of 2's so I will end with these stats..
*Some Stats and Trends:
*UPDATE:...HAWAII'S RECENT BIG NON-CONF OPPONENTS GAME RESULTS....
01': Hawaii +3 vs Byu..........Result: Hawaii 72 Byu 45.
(note: The Cougars came in ranked # 3 in the nation and with an undefeated 12-0 record...not to mention a Top ranked offense and defense.)
02': Hawaii -4.5 vs Cincy......Result: Hawaii 20 Cincy 19.
(note: Cincy brought in a top ranked Conf USA offense and running game...The Bearcats this year came within a hair of beating that years National Champions in Ohio St.)
02': Hawaii +9.5 vs Alabama....Result: Hawaii 16 Alabama 21.
(note: Alabama came in with one of their All-Time Career leading rushers in RB Williams and the All-Time Career leading QB rushers in Wyatts..not to mention the SEC's top ranked Defense...and a 9-3 record.)
03': Hawaii +2 vs Alabama......Result: Hawaii 37 Alabama 29.
(note: Alabama's RB Shaud Williams this year was the SEC's leading rusher and All SEC selection, with over 1200+ rushing yards.)
04': Hawaii +6.5-7 vs NW.......Result: Hawaii 49 NW 41.
(note: NW finished 4th in Big Ten Conf, beating Ohio St and Purdue...NW also had the Big Ten Conf's # 1 pasing QB Basanez who lead the Big Ten in total passing yards (2838, 236.5 ypg, 12 TDs)...and the Big Ten's #1 leading rusher in RB Herron (1381, 5.0 ypc, 14 TDs)
04': Hawaii +7 vs Mich St.......Result: Hawaii 41 Mich St 38.
(note: Mich St finished ranked 5th in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 238.5 ypg and 5.7 ypc...They were also ranked # 1 in the Big Ten in Run Offense, and had 3 RB's who all had over 600 yards rushing and QB in Stanton who had 687 yards rushing on the year...Their defense vs the pass was 3rd best in the Big Ten as well...This Spartan team also routed 17th ranked Wisconsin and Minnesota, and almost beat rival Michigan.)
Recent Record SU and ATS:
Hawaii recent record at Home vs Big non-conf opponents, last 7 games...5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS.
*Hawaii when Home Dogs to recent Big non-conf opps last 6 games....4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.
Note: 1 of the losses both SU and ATS was to #1 USC this year...
Ok Gang...I think this info is way more than enough to back the Warriors up today....Lets hope it turns out again in our favor, like it has done so many times in the recent past...This year, if your wondering what my record is on Hawaii games...in FB I am currently 5-1 ATS only losing in the Fresno St game...And in CBB I am currently 1-0 ATS going against my Warriors when they played Unlv....Now, good luck to us..and LETS GO GET EM! ...ALOHA CC.
*please disregard any typos and grammatical errors...no time to edit this book...
*ML PLAYS ON: (1 Unit)
Hawaii +224
Cont Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM
