UPDATE 4 "BIG MONDAY"
**Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK on: (5 Units)
Atlanta -7 (buy .5pt) (EZ 27-14 Winner!)
Tonights game could be labeled as, "The Old QB vs the Young QB"..."The Geazer" vs "the Pleaser"..."The Ground & Pound Em" vs "the Grounded Who Gets Pounded"....or just simply the "Michael Vick Show"....Still, whatever way and whatever title this MNF game gets...wont matter because only one of these teams will have these Key Factors on their side..which when all said and done will be the reasons why the Falcons will soar up in the standings...while the Jets will contine to nose dive even further down..
*KEY FACTOR #1: Atlanta's Running Game with X-Factor Vick vs the Jets Run Defense.
-Ok we all know both teams like to run the ball...but it is the Falcons, who possess the best running game in the NFL...Atlanta currently ranks 1st in the league in yards rushing per a game..averaging a solid 185.3 ypg...It should be noted that last year the Falcons running game was also ranked 1st in the league, but they averaged less ypg rushing with167 ypg on the ground...The Falcons running game at this point in the season is showing that last year wasnt a fluke and that they are completely capable of only getting better and better, which of course only spells trouble for everyone that must face them..
Another stat that is amazing is the fact that the Falcons, this year are also averaging a solid 5.5 ypr attempt...Also, the Falcons running trio of Duckett, Dunn, and Vick...comprise the NFL's only trio of teammates that are ranked in the top 20 rushers...And, although RB Duckett wont be able to go in this one today, having two of the three of them..will be more than enough, especially because Duckett was really only a short yardage back...while RB Dunn and QB Vick, both brought a duo threat on offense...with Vick running and throwing and Dunn, running and receiving...
Some feel that RB Dunn, being on the smaller side, wont be able to handle carring the full load tonight, which for one is not true..and also because he wont really have to with Vick running the ball as well...People always think that Vick only runs when he cant find anyone open or if the pass protection breaks down around him forcing him to take off...Eventhough that part is true..who also is true is the fact that he does have plays that are designed for him to take off and run the ball himself...It is just that these plays are disguised and sold as passing plays and not running plays, when in fact they are...Still, as far as, Dunn ability to carry the majority of the load without Duckett...Dunn has already proven many times that he is capable of doing just that..
In their last game vs the Saints, Dunn led the way with 21 carries for 100 yards and 1 TD...Also, everyone seems so quick to forget that last season in Week 15 and 16, when Duckett was out..along with 3 fullbacks, Griffith, Pritchett, and Layne, all lost to season ending injuries, it was the Mighty Dunn who shouldered the entire load, rushing for 318 yards with 2 TDs and also grabbing 9 balls for 107 yards total in the final 3 weeks of the season...Dunn is one very important key to this Falcons offense in both its running and receiving game...and he has definately shown in the past and present that he is one of the best at his position...
Side Note: RB Dunn has rushed for a total of 577 yards and 2 TDs, which ranks him at 7th in the league eventhough he has played 1 less game then 5 of the 6 players above him...Also, he is averages a higher yards per an attempt then all of them with his solid 5.2 ypr average...Solid!
Tonight, 2/3rds of Atlanta's "DVD" trio will go up against a Jets defense, who unlike them has not continued their high rankings in the run defense category which was a big reason for their success last season.....This year the Jets run defense is currently ranked 27th in the league against the run, giving up an average of 129.8 ypg...both a big big step down from last seasons impressive ranking of 5th vs the run allowing just 97.9 ypg....Their lack of shutting down opponents running offense this season is one of the big reasons why they are currently sitting at 2-4 on the year...And, based on last week lost at Buffalo where they allowed the Bills to gain 177 yards on the ground, 143 of that coming from the Bill McGahee, is not good news at all for them having to now face the best running team, the past two seasons,...who also possess not one, but two runners who possess duo threats which they must also defend against.....Oh Boy!
Side Note: Atlanta averages 61 more yards rushing a game than Buffalo does...Also, Dunn although playing one less game than Buffalo's McGahee, averages 1 yard more per a attempt rushing, more total rushing yards a game, and 4 more yards per a catch, then McGahee does..
Another thing to make note of is the fact that one reason why the Jets have not fared well this year against the run as they did last season...was inpart due also to the lost of their run stuffing NT Jason Fergason...and also LB Cowart, both lost to free agency...And, last seasons success they had was due also due to their being able to force turnovers, which they were ranked 1st in turnover ratio at +17....but this year, they have not done the same and wont find it any easier as the Falcons are one of only 7 teams left in the league who has not turned the ball over by fumbling..
Side Note: The Jets defense overall has allowed 130 yards rushing per game...but on the Road they are allowing 163 ypg on the ground....Atlanta at Home is averaging 200 yards rushing and 5.6 ypr attempt..
Lastly, the Jets defense vs the run has been so suseptible that they have the highest rush attempts made against them with 34.8 run attempts a game, than any other defense in the league...Today, they dont face an average running team with a normal type of runners either...Dunn maybe smaller than the average RB in the league, but he definately is one of the best in the league, and he is also averaging 103 ypg in his last 3 games...And QB Vick, has proven that there is practically no defense that can be made against him that has proven to work on a consistant basis against him doing some damage...The spy coverage used to track him has proven useless, as who can keep up with him all game,...and the straight-up coverage on him hasn't worked much better either...as he has already had runs of at least 24 yards in four of his five starts this year...Furthermore, he has added an effective bootleg run to the right that makes him as hard to defend on that side as he is on the left....Dunn leading Atlanta's solid running attack..and Vick bringing his unpredictable and explosiveness to it, simply presents to many problems for opposing defenses...and with the Jets struggling this year to stop everyone's running attack.....That only says Big Trouble for them tonight!
*KEY FACTOR #1A: Atlanta's Passing Game vs the Jets Pass Defense..
-The reason the Jets are currently ranked 6th in the league against the pass is because they have not faced a decent passing attack yet this year...The highest passing offense they have faced this season is KC's, which ranks 16th in the league...The other teams were Miami ranked 18th, Jacksonville 22nd, Baltimore 19th, TB 23rd, and Buffalo ranking 31st in passing offense....All these teams they played are run priority teams who is set on establishing the run first and only passing when need to or when they have set up the play action enough to take advantage of the defense overplaying the run....So I am not to impressed or even convinced that they are even worthy of this high ranking...eventhough they did finish last year ranked 14th against the pass..
I know that Atlanta doesnt have a high explosive passing attack...but that is because they have a highly explosive running attack which no has been able to stop just yet...Still, they do run a West Coast offense and they do have backs in Dunn and Griffith for the short passing game...and also All Pro TE Crumpler, who is an important receiver in this offense...Not to mention, WR Jenkins who brings his ability to stretch the field averaging over 17 yards per a reception...All of these players brings to this offense a balance attack, that Mora and Vick can use to their advantage, when they chose to utilized them...Right now, the running game is getting all the work because no one can stop them and because Vick lacks the ability to effectively pass the ball around...Not True!
Although it might seem as if Vick and the offense has made no progress from last season, but that's not neccessarily true...In fact, through the first 6 games last year, Atlanta had just 4 passing TDs and the offense as well had allowed a whopping 20 sacks...But this season through 6 games, Atlanta has 8 passing TDs and just allowed 12 sacks....Thats some solid improvement.
The Falcons still currently rank near the bottom of the league as far as yards passing per a game is concern...but they still have been finding success with this type of attack..as last season they made it all the way to the NFC Championship game with a passing offense that ranked 30th in the league....And, they did this when the O-Line sucked at protecting Vick...But this year, the Falcon line, as mentioned earlier has only given up 12 sacks, including one last week Sunday vs NO's....
Also helping this offense take advantage of what the running game sets up....is All-Pro TE Crumler, who is Vicks main target....Like Vick, Crumpler also has very few players who are incharge of covering him that are fast enough to do that with any type of success...Very LB'ers are able to run with Crumpler as he runs his routes which is designed for him to utilize his speed to force covering LB'ers to turn their backs to the ball...This is what gives him a distinct advantage and why he has found success in beating many many coverages and a big reason why he has become Vick's favorite target the past seasons..
Another thing that will help give Atlanta an advantage when they do pass is the fact that the Jets havent been putting fear into any QBs this season as they have only recorded just 9 sacks so far this year...which is the 2nd fewest in the league as well...Not that Vick needs all day, but given enough time and any QB has the ability to pick any secondary apart....Again, the Jets defense ranks 6th against the pass but that is more so due to not having the face high flying passing attacks...They wont face one here tonight in Atlanta, but they will be facing an All-Pro QB, an All-Pro RB, and an All-Pro TE...who is also ranks 16 in total offense and also tied for 7th in Scoring offense in the league...
Side Note: Atlanta has scored 13 TDs in 20 trips to the Red Zone....and they have the NFL's 5th best efficiency rating....And, including 6 FGs, the Falcons have failed to score just once inside the 20-yard line...In addition, only SD (129) and Seattle (127) have more in point than Atlanta's 111.
Side Note: Atlanta's offense currently ranks 8th in the league in 3rd down conversion % (41.6)...This is another impressive increase as through 6 games last season, the Falcons were ranked last in this category at 25%.
Side Note: The Jets defense is tied for 2nd fewest sacks with just 9 this season....And the Jets DE Abraham, has been shut out again from recording a sack in 3 straight games...after he started the season with a sack in each of the Jets first 3 games.....Plus, CB Law, who leads the team in interceptions with 3...last int coming last week vs Buffalo...could be limited tonight because of back and groin injuries...The All-Pro CB Law didnt practice on Thursday, meaning rookie CB Miller should see alot more action than usual....An opening and player that will allow Atlanta to attack..with the Rookie in the game or against a less than 100% Law in the game..
Side Note: The Jets pass defense on the Road is allowing opponents to complete 65.8% of their pass attempts...and has allowed opponents to average 35:02 in TOP, while also allowing 21.3 first downs as well...Not Good!
Side Note: Atlanta at Home average 24 ppg, 362.3 ypg (5.8 ypp) ...and in their last 3 games they are averaging 30.7 ppg (5.8 ypp) and just .03 in turnovers.
The Jets, on the Road this year, have faced KC losing 27-7, Baltimore losing 13-3, and Buffalo losing 27-17...All 3 losses were SU as well as ATS...and all 3 opponents were teams whose strength on offense is running the ball....Do you see how Atlanta fits perfectly into this trend that has established with the Jets here....
*KEY FACTOR #2: Atlanta's Front 7 vs New Yorks Make-Shift OL..
The Game Plan for the Jets on offense, like the Falcons, will be to establish the run...which they did last week as RB Martin gained 148 yards on the ground....however they still lost by 10 pts.....Furthermore, the Bill have the worst run defense in the league...The Bills are allowing 5.1 ypr and 159 ypg on the ground this year...They have also given up the most rushing TDs this year with 11...They have also given up the most 1st downs via the run with 63....and they have allowed the 8th longest run from scrimmage at 59 yards...
And if the Jets still couldnt win after Martin rushed for 148 yards...against a poor run defense that the Bills have...How can they expect to win against another run defense that has not fared to well this year against the run, in Atlanta's run defense....Well one reason, they shouldn't expect to win is due to their losing the main man on the O-Line in All-Pro Center Kevin Mawae...Some people are making like this is not a big deal and it is probably because one, they know nothing about how important this position is...or two, they are buying into what is being said in interviews with LG Kendall, who is replacing the 6-Time Pro Bowler....In interviews, he states that playing center is alot easier then his other position at guard...Fuckin Bullshit!...The Centers importance and leadership is like the Catcher in baseball....He is the one who controls and calls the O-Lines blocking assignments and recognizes defensive front formations...and he also is the one who starts the offense, when he snaps the ball...It maybe easy in practice..but on MNF, on the Road, and against a Blitz Crazy defense like the Falcons are...who btw are also have recorded the 2nd most sacks (20) in the league...It wont be as easy to replace a center like that of Mawae at all and especially not in your first game doing it...
Another, factor which gives the Falcons an advantage...is the fact that Kendall is not as athletic as Mawae is...This is important because Mawae had the ability to pull and run in open space clearing the way for RBs...Furthermore, this season although Mawae didnt do much pulling because 3 of their games were against teams that ran a 3-4 defense...this is not the case with Atlanta as they run a 4-3 defense...which means the man open is the center and he will have to block downfield and open holes for the running backs...something that again, Mawae was one of the best at doing...
Atlanta's run defense maybe ranked 28th and allowing 133.5 ypg this year overall...but at Home it's a different story as both the offense and defense step up in play...AT home the defense is allowing just 85 ypg in the dome...Plus, with all the comments about them being so poor against the run, I cannot see them not stepping up in play with a bad attitude to shut them all up...In addition, what others are forgetting is that NO's run offense is ranked in the top 10 and their reserves as they call them, who came in to play for a injured Macalister...is not rookies or inexperienced players...In fact, Stecker is a 6 year veteran who has at least 30 carries this season..and Smith is a 9 year pro, who has the 2nd most carries this year with 50...Still, NO's running success is not predicated on their RBs as much as it is on the O-Line and TE's opening up the holes for them to run through...and with all the traveling that the Saints had to do, yet they still can rank that high in running offense says alot to how solid they are...The game before them against NE cant really be argued against that much, as the Pats are still the defending champs so they still are expected be able to dominate teams not yet at their caliber...But it does say alot that Atlanta was still able to make a game of it against both NE and at Seattle...The Jets offense is nowhere near the quality of these two teams at all..
Side Note: The Jets running offense also ranked 25th in the league and averages just 80.5 ypg...They average just 3.3 ypr and also have fumbled the ball 6 times...Atlanta's defense at home has averaged forcing 2.5 turnovers per game...
Side Note: With the injury to Mawae...the Jets needed to switch even more players around on the line...They already switched Fabini from LTackle to right, to protect his strained MCL in his right knee...This forced their young 2nd year player in Jones, who is also starting for the 1st time, to have to move to the right side...Now Lf Guard Kendall moves to center..and Goodwin comes off the bench to start at left guard....The Jets only have one offensive lineman in RT Guard Moore, who is still playing the same position he started at when the season began...Furthermore, the Jets will now only have two reserves that will dress for this game....Thats just 7 offensive lineman tonight for the Jets...They better pray no one gets injured.
Side Note: The Jets have allowed 21 sacks thus far...which ranks as ....
The Falcons have allowed alot of yards on the ground this season...but again this one is in the Dome and I expect that they will be able to handle the 25th rank running offense after going up against some very good running teams this year...Furthermore, even with all the yards given up...they have only given up 5 TDs via the run so far this year...and have the allowed the 3rd shortest run from scimmage at only 24 yards as well...Tonight, the front 7 facing a line where 4 of 5 are playing out of their positions, should help them find more success against the run.
*KEY FACTOR #2A: Atlanta's Blitzing Packages vs Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde...
-Oh boy, I can just hear Vinny saying, "I came off my couch for this"...For this, he would be referring to the ass pounding he will be again getting if those crazy Falcon blitzers get an open shot at his backside tonight....So far on the year Vinny has not been impressive at all...throwing for just 324 yards, 0 TD, and 3 Ints....He currently has a passer rating of 50.6...and he also is coming into this game off of a 12-for-26 for 161 yards, with 2 ints, 1 fumble, loss at Buffalo...where he was Sacked 5 times as well...Oh Boy!
Well, if the Bills can sack Vinny 5 times...then how much times do you think the Falcons, who is the best in the league at getting to the QB, will get to the slow moving Testeverde?....I say, with Mawae out, the majority of this O-Line playing out of position, along with inexperienced blockers filling in as well, the skys the limit...
Side Note: The Jets O-Line has allowed 21 sacks so far this season which is 4th most in the league...and is also another reason why this Jets passing offense is ranked 26th in the league..
Sure Testaverde will be going up against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league against the pass, allowing 222.7 ypg...but, how is he suppose to do anything when he wont have the time to do so...Expect the Falcons to bring the house all night long with their Blitzing schemes...and expect DE Kerney, to lead the way....Kerney had one sack last week to give him 45.5 since the start of 2001...Since 2001, only 5 other players has had more sacks then Kerney has...Solid! ...But DE Kerney is not along as tackle Rod Coleman, who also recorded a sack last week and who has the most sack for the Falcons with 6 to be also bringing it hard on Vinny....Oh Boy..Run Vinny Run!
Vinny has gone just 18-for-45...with 7 interceptions in only two career starts at Atlanta...Wow, the news on Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde..just gets better and better for us Falcon backers, now doesnt it...LOL...And, reports this week says that Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde needed to get some much needed rest during practice and took fewer reps..because he has not been through training camp..and thus was tiring a bit after just two games....Oh my God, if he cant handle two games...how the hell will he be able to recover from all the running he will be doing trying to avoiding the Falcons Blitzes?....Again, the news just get better and better for all us Falcon backers....Love It!
Side Note: Jets Passing Offense - 164.2 ypg (26th) overall...but on the road they are averaging just 54.1% completion...Furthermore, the Jets offense on the road is just averaging just 9 ppg and only 272.3 ypg...while they are allowing opponents to average 22.3 ppg and 329.7 ypg....And, in their last 3 games...2 of which Vinny took over they have averaged 11 .3 ppg and just 213.0 ypg..
Side Note: The Jets offense on the road also only average 78 yards rushing....which is why they only average just 24:58 in TOP and just 14.7 first downs as well.
Side Note: The Jets offense only has 3 passing TDs which is last in the league...and has 6 interceptions as well...Furthermore, the longest passing play this year was for just 37 yard..which is the 3rd shortest in the league..only in front of the Texans and Bears.
Side Note: The Jets offense is the 6th worst team on 3rd down conversion % ..converting just 33.8% of the time.
The Jets will have problems stopping the blitzes as the defenders are small but fast...and they should be able to beat this Jets offensive line, who has already been victimized by a massive switching of positions and personnel, which will make protecting Vinny tonight harder than ever...Lastly, Vinny's record in his last 13 starts for the Jets is just 4 and 9....Very Sad!
*KEY FACTOR # 4: Atlanta's Kicking Game.
-Atlanta is only one of 4 teams in the league who is still kicking 100% perfect in FG's and Xtra pts..
-Jets are 2nd to last in the league at 62.5% on all FG attempts this season....and they are also tied with the 4th shortest FG at 44 yards..
-Atlanta has recorded the longest FG made this year with a 58 yarder.
-Jets kicking game tied for the 2nd fewest in points with only 24 pts...Atlanta kicking game has scored 42 pts..
*Some Stats, Trends, and Info:
-Jets has lost 5 straight road games dating back to last season.
-Jets currently 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season.
-Jets did not play in a Dome yet this year...
-Jets on their 2nd straight road game..
-Jets 0-2 ATS when dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts.
-Jets 0-2 ATS as a Road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts this year...and 2-5 ATS in this role the last 3 seasons..
-Jets 0-2 SU and ATS in Dome games the last 3 seasons.
-Jets 0-5 SU and ATS in games played on turf the last 3 seasons.
-Jets 1-3 ATS as a Dog...and 6-12 ATS as a Dog the last 3 years.
-While some feel that the best road team in the NFC is Philly...Many feel that the best home team is Atlanta with Michael Vick.
-Atlanta needs to win this game to keep pace in their conference which is very strong with TB and Carolina being also among the elite teams in the NFC through six games...With a win tonight though...the Falcons have a chance to move ahead of the Panthers and get within a half-game of the Bucs...Making this one important as well...is the fact that Atlanta needs to still play 4 of its last 6 games on the road, including two games on short weeks....Games at home is games they need to win...
Conclusion:
The Jets offense is too depleted at this stage to be effective, and Atlanta should be able to apply constant pressure to the sitting "Old Man" duck Testaverde tonight...Offensively, the Falcons will be to strong with Vick and Dunn pounding it on the ground..and when that train gets rolling early, I really dont see the having the need to even throw the ball tonight...However, one advantage of having a solid running game is that if you do need to throw the ball...you have the edge with the play action pass which was already set up by the strong running game...Be sure that if Vick does throw it tonight, it will be when they have set those eager beaver Jets defenders up to bite on the run...Mora, will know when the time is right to capitalize on this Jets defense...and Vick will be able to execute with ease to TE Crumpler....Tonight, its going to be all Vick and Dunn...So take the Falcons as a Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK selection ....GL and Lets Go Get Em, Aloha CC.
please disregard any typos and grammatical errors as I didnt have time to edit this book..Thxs
**TOP RATED 7 PT TEASER PLAYS ON: (2 & 3 Units)
Atlanta E & Denver +10 (3 Units) (Winner!)
Atlanta E & Seattle +2 (2 Units) (Winner!)
Atlanta -.5 pt & Va Tech -6.5 (3 Units) (pending!)
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FYI:
-Ok Gang...Monday Night was definately $weet indeed as we end the Week with a Big Winner with my Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK selection...This play is my 2nd Strongest play ratings only behind my "BIG GAME PLAYS"...I also release a couple of Teasers that also hit EZ for me and my clients as well...
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Watch out Gang...who you listen to and who you chose to follow...as real $$$ is involved...Follow those who have proven themselves and who continue to always prove themselves...as this game its not what you did last year or yesterday...its about you being able to continue doing what you did, today (the present) that matters the most...
To be a Winner in this game, you need to put in the time and energy it takes to Win...Or you need to find and follow someone who will and does put in the time and energy needed to Win in this game, for you....If you feel that I can provide that for you...Then, simply jump on board the $$$ Train and I will do just that for you...
Anyways, tomorrow we Rock in the World Series again...So contact me for my Monthly & Weekly-Plays Package- "Specials...and receive as a Bonus all my World Series Plays and all my "BGPs" included at no additional cost to you....Cant beat that deal..and you cant beat the work I definately put in to capping out my plays for all my clients, especially as All the Proof of this is in the Pudding I continually provide in this thread for everyone to see....Who else does this but me...That's right, NO ONE!....GL and Aloha CC.
Cont Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM
comp play(opinion only) on: Neb -1.5
**Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK on: (5 Units)
Atlanta -7 (buy .5pt) (EZ 27-14 Winner!)
Tonights game could be labeled as, "The Old QB vs the Young QB"..."The Geazer" vs "the Pleaser"..."The Ground & Pound Em" vs "the Grounded Who Gets Pounded"....or just simply the "Michael Vick Show"....Still, whatever way and whatever title this MNF game gets...wont matter because only one of these teams will have these Key Factors on their side..which when all said and done will be the reasons why the Falcons will soar up in the standings...while the Jets will contine to nose dive even further down..
*KEY FACTOR #1: Atlanta's Running Game with X-Factor Vick vs the Jets Run Defense.
-Ok we all know both teams like to run the ball...but it is the Falcons, who possess the best running game in the NFL...Atlanta currently ranks 1st in the league in yards rushing per a game..averaging a solid 185.3 ypg...It should be noted that last year the Falcons running game was also ranked 1st in the league, but they averaged less ypg rushing with167 ypg on the ground...The Falcons running game at this point in the season is showing that last year wasnt a fluke and that they are completely capable of only getting better and better, which of course only spells trouble for everyone that must face them..
Another stat that is amazing is the fact that the Falcons, this year are also averaging a solid 5.5 ypr attempt...Also, the Falcons running trio of Duckett, Dunn, and Vick...comprise the NFL's only trio of teammates that are ranked in the top 20 rushers...And, although RB Duckett wont be able to go in this one today, having two of the three of them..will be more than enough, especially because Duckett was really only a short yardage back...while RB Dunn and QB Vick, both brought a duo threat on offense...with Vick running and throwing and Dunn, running and receiving...
Some feel that RB Dunn, being on the smaller side, wont be able to handle carring the full load tonight, which for one is not true..and also because he wont really have to with Vick running the ball as well...People always think that Vick only runs when he cant find anyone open or if the pass protection breaks down around him forcing him to take off...Eventhough that part is true..who also is true is the fact that he does have plays that are designed for him to take off and run the ball himself...It is just that these plays are disguised and sold as passing plays and not running plays, when in fact they are...Still, as far as, Dunn ability to carry the majority of the load without Duckett...Dunn has already proven many times that he is capable of doing just that..
In their last game vs the Saints, Dunn led the way with 21 carries for 100 yards and 1 TD...Also, everyone seems so quick to forget that last season in Week 15 and 16, when Duckett was out..along with 3 fullbacks, Griffith, Pritchett, and Layne, all lost to season ending injuries, it was the Mighty Dunn who shouldered the entire load, rushing for 318 yards with 2 TDs and also grabbing 9 balls for 107 yards total in the final 3 weeks of the season...Dunn is one very important key to this Falcons offense in both its running and receiving game...and he has definately shown in the past and present that he is one of the best at his position...
Side Note: RB Dunn has rushed for a total of 577 yards and 2 TDs, which ranks him at 7th in the league eventhough he has played 1 less game then 5 of the 6 players above him...Also, he is averages a higher yards per an attempt then all of them with his solid 5.2 ypr average...Solid!
Tonight, 2/3rds of Atlanta's "DVD" trio will go up against a Jets defense, who unlike them has not continued their high rankings in the run defense category which was a big reason for their success last season.....This year the Jets run defense is currently ranked 27th in the league against the run, giving up an average of 129.8 ypg...both a big big step down from last seasons impressive ranking of 5th vs the run allowing just 97.9 ypg....Their lack of shutting down opponents running offense this season is one of the big reasons why they are currently sitting at 2-4 on the year...And, based on last week lost at Buffalo where they allowed the Bills to gain 177 yards on the ground, 143 of that coming from the Bill McGahee, is not good news at all for them having to now face the best running team, the past two seasons,...who also possess not one, but two runners who possess duo threats which they must also defend against.....Oh Boy!
Side Note: Atlanta averages 61 more yards rushing a game than Buffalo does...Also, Dunn although playing one less game than Buffalo's McGahee, averages 1 yard more per a attempt rushing, more total rushing yards a game, and 4 more yards per a catch, then McGahee does..
Another thing to make note of is the fact that one reason why the Jets have not fared well this year against the run as they did last season...was inpart due also to the lost of their run stuffing NT Jason Fergason...and also LB Cowart, both lost to free agency...And, last seasons success they had was due also due to their being able to force turnovers, which they were ranked 1st in turnover ratio at +17....but this year, they have not done the same and wont find it any easier as the Falcons are one of only 7 teams left in the league who has not turned the ball over by fumbling..
Side Note: The Jets defense overall has allowed 130 yards rushing per game...but on the Road they are allowing 163 ypg on the ground....Atlanta at Home is averaging 200 yards rushing and 5.6 ypr attempt..
Lastly, the Jets defense vs the run has been so suseptible that they have the highest rush attempts made against them with 34.8 run attempts a game, than any other defense in the league...Today, they dont face an average running team with a normal type of runners either...Dunn maybe smaller than the average RB in the league, but he definately is one of the best in the league, and he is also averaging 103 ypg in his last 3 games...And QB Vick, has proven that there is practically no defense that can be made against him that has proven to work on a consistant basis against him doing some damage...The spy coverage used to track him has proven useless, as who can keep up with him all game,...and the straight-up coverage on him hasn't worked much better either...as he has already had runs of at least 24 yards in four of his five starts this year...Furthermore, he has added an effective bootleg run to the right that makes him as hard to defend on that side as he is on the left....Dunn leading Atlanta's solid running attack..and Vick bringing his unpredictable and explosiveness to it, simply presents to many problems for opposing defenses...and with the Jets struggling this year to stop everyone's running attack.....That only says Big Trouble for them tonight!
*KEY FACTOR #1A: Atlanta's Passing Game vs the Jets Pass Defense..
-The reason the Jets are currently ranked 6th in the league against the pass is because they have not faced a decent passing attack yet this year...The highest passing offense they have faced this season is KC's, which ranks 16th in the league...The other teams were Miami ranked 18th, Jacksonville 22nd, Baltimore 19th, TB 23rd, and Buffalo ranking 31st in passing offense....All these teams they played are run priority teams who is set on establishing the run first and only passing when need to or when they have set up the play action enough to take advantage of the defense overplaying the run....So I am not to impressed or even convinced that they are even worthy of this high ranking...eventhough they did finish last year ranked 14th against the pass..
I know that Atlanta doesnt have a high explosive passing attack...but that is because they have a highly explosive running attack which no has been able to stop just yet...Still, they do run a West Coast offense and they do have backs in Dunn and Griffith for the short passing game...and also All Pro TE Crumpler, who is an important receiver in this offense...Not to mention, WR Jenkins who brings his ability to stretch the field averaging over 17 yards per a reception...All of these players brings to this offense a balance attack, that Mora and Vick can use to their advantage, when they chose to utilized them...Right now, the running game is getting all the work because no one can stop them and because Vick lacks the ability to effectively pass the ball around...Not True!
Although it might seem as if Vick and the offense has made no progress from last season, but that's not neccessarily true...In fact, through the first 6 games last year, Atlanta had just 4 passing TDs and the offense as well had allowed a whopping 20 sacks...But this season through 6 games, Atlanta has 8 passing TDs and just allowed 12 sacks....Thats some solid improvement.
The Falcons still currently rank near the bottom of the league as far as yards passing per a game is concern...but they still have been finding success with this type of attack..as last season they made it all the way to the NFC Championship game with a passing offense that ranked 30th in the league....And, they did this when the O-Line sucked at protecting Vick...But this year, the Falcon line, as mentioned earlier has only given up 12 sacks, including one last week Sunday vs NO's....
Also helping this offense take advantage of what the running game sets up....is All-Pro TE Crumler, who is Vicks main target....Like Vick, Crumpler also has very few players who are incharge of covering him that are fast enough to do that with any type of success...Very LB'ers are able to run with Crumpler as he runs his routes which is designed for him to utilize his speed to force covering LB'ers to turn their backs to the ball...This is what gives him a distinct advantage and why he has found success in beating many many coverages and a big reason why he has become Vick's favorite target the past seasons..
Another thing that will help give Atlanta an advantage when they do pass is the fact that the Jets havent been putting fear into any QBs this season as they have only recorded just 9 sacks so far this year...which is the 2nd fewest in the league as well...Not that Vick needs all day, but given enough time and any QB has the ability to pick any secondary apart....Again, the Jets defense ranks 6th against the pass but that is more so due to not having the face high flying passing attacks...They wont face one here tonight in Atlanta, but they will be facing an All-Pro QB, an All-Pro RB, and an All-Pro TE...who is also ranks 16 in total offense and also tied for 7th in Scoring offense in the league...
Side Note: Atlanta has scored 13 TDs in 20 trips to the Red Zone....and they have the NFL's 5th best efficiency rating....And, including 6 FGs, the Falcons have failed to score just once inside the 20-yard line...In addition, only SD (129) and Seattle (127) have more in point than Atlanta's 111.
Side Note: Atlanta's offense currently ranks 8th in the league in 3rd down conversion % (41.6)...This is another impressive increase as through 6 games last season, the Falcons were ranked last in this category at 25%.
Side Note: The Jets defense is tied for 2nd fewest sacks with just 9 this season....And the Jets DE Abraham, has been shut out again from recording a sack in 3 straight games...after he started the season with a sack in each of the Jets first 3 games.....Plus, CB Law, who leads the team in interceptions with 3...last int coming last week vs Buffalo...could be limited tonight because of back and groin injuries...The All-Pro CB Law didnt practice on Thursday, meaning rookie CB Miller should see alot more action than usual....An opening and player that will allow Atlanta to attack..with the Rookie in the game or against a less than 100% Law in the game..
Side Note: The Jets pass defense on the Road is allowing opponents to complete 65.8% of their pass attempts...and has allowed opponents to average 35:02 in TOP, while also allowing 21.3 first downs as well...Not Good!
Side Note: Atlanta at Home average 24 ppg, 362.3 ypg (5.8 ypp) ...and in their last 3 games they are averaging 30.7 ppg (5.8 ypp) and just .03 in turnovers.
The Jets, on the Road this year, have faced KC losing 27-7, Baltimore losing 13-3, and Buffalo losing 27-17...All 3 losses were SU as well as ATS...and all 3 opponents were teams whose strength on offense is running the ball....Do you see how Atlanta fits perfectly into this trend that has established with the Jets here....
*KEY FACTOR #2: Atlanta's Front 7 vs New Yorks Make-Shift OL..
The Game Plan for the Jets on offense, like the Falcons, will be to establish the run...which they did last week as RB Martin gained 148 yards on the ground....however they still lost by 10 pts.....Furthermore, the Bill have the worst run defense in the league...The Bills are allowing 5.1 ypr and 159 ypg on the ground this year...They have also given up the most rushing TDs this year with 11...They have also given up the most 1st downs via the run with 63....and they have allowed the 8th longest run from scrimmage at 59 yards...
And if the Jets still couldnt win after Martin rushed for 148 yards...against a poor run defense that the Bills have...How can they expect to win against another run defense that has not fared to well this year against the run, in Atlanta's run defense....Well one reason, they shouldn't expect to win is due to their losing the main man on the O-Line in All-Pro Center Kevin Mawae...Some people are making like this is not a big deal and it is probably because one, they know nothing about how important this position is...or two, they are buying into what is being said in interviews with LG Kendall, who is replacing the 6-Time Pro Bowler....In interviews, he states that playing center is alot easier then his other position at guard...Fuckin Bullshit!...The Centers importance and leadership is like the Catcher in baseball....He is the one who controls and calls the O-Lines blocking assignments and recognizes defensive front formations...and he also is the one who starts the offense, when he snaps the ball...It maybe easy in practice..but on MNF, on the Road, and against a Blitz Crazy defense like the Falcons are...who btw are also have recorded the 2nd most sacks (20) in the league...It wont be as easy to replace a center like that of Mawae at all and especially not in your first game doing it...
Another, factor which gives the Falcons an advantage...is the fact that Kendall is not as athletic as Mawae is...This is important because Mawae had the ability to pull and run in open space clearing the way for RBs...Furthermore, this season although Mawae didnt do much pulling because 3 of their games were against teams that ran a 3-4 defense...this is not the case with Atlanta as they run a 4-3 defense...which means the man open is the center and he will have to block downfield and open holes for the running backs...something that again, Mawae was one of the best at doing...
Atlanta's run defense maybe ranked 28th and allowing 133.5 ypg this year overall...but at Home it's a different story as both the offense and defense step up in play...AT home the defense is allowing just 85 ypg in the dome...Plus, with all the comments about them being so poor against the run, I cannot see them not stepping up in play with a bad attitude to shut them all up...In addition, what others are forgetting is that NO's run offense is ranked in the top 10 and their reserves as they call them, who came in to play for a injured Macalister...is not rookies or inexperienced players...In fact, Stecker is a 6 year veteran who has at least 30 carries this season..and Smith is a 9 year pro, who has the 2nd most carries this year with 50...Still, NO's running success is not predicated on their RBs as much as it is on the O-Line and TE's opening up the holes for them to run through...and with all the traveling that the Saints had to do, yet they still can rank that high in running offense says alot to how solid they are...The game before them against NE cant really be argued against that much, as the Pats are still the defending champs so they still are expected be able to dominate teams not yet at their caliber...But it does say alot that Atlanta was still able to make a game of it against both NE and at Seattle...The Jets offense is nowhere near the quality of these two teams at all..
Side Note: The Jets running offense also ranked 25th in the league and averages just 80.5 ypg...They average just 3.3 ypr and also have fumbled the ball 6 times...Atlanta's defense at home has averaged forcing 2.5 turnovers per game...
Side Note: With the injury to Mawae...the Jets needed to switch even more players around on the line...They already switched Fabini from LTackle to right, to protect his strained MCL in his right knee...This forced their young 2nd year player in Jones, who is also starting for the 1st time, to have to move to the right side...Now Lf Guard Kendall moves to center..and Goodwin comes off the bench to start at left guard....The Jets only have one offensive lineman in RT Guard Moore, who is still playing the same position he started at when the season began...Furthermore, the Jets will now only have two reserves that will dress for this game....Thats just 7 offensive lineman tonight for the Jets...They better pray no one gets injured.
Side Note: The Jets have allowed 21 sacks thus far...which ranks as ....
The Falcons have allowed alot of yards on the ground this season...but again this one is in the Dome and I expect that they will be able to handle the 25th rank running offense after going up against some very good running teams this year...Furthermore, even with all the yards given up...they have only given up 5 TDs via the run so far this year...and have the allowed the 3rd shortest run from scimmage at only 24 yards as well...Tonight, the front 7 facing a line where 4 of 5 are playing out of their positions, should help them find more success against the run.
*KEY FACTOR #2A: Atlanta's Blitzing Packages vs Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde...
-Oh boy, I can just hear Vinny saying, "I came off my couch for this"...For this, he would be referring to the ass pounding he will be again getting if those crazy Falcon blitzers get an open shot at his backside tonight....So far on the year Vinny has not been impressive at all...throwing for just 324 yards, 0 TD, and 3 Ints....He currently has a passer rating of 50.6...and he also is coming into this game off of a 12-for-26 for 161 yards, with 2 ints, 1 fumble, loss at Buffalo...where he was Sacked 5 times as well...Oh Boy!
Well, if the Bills can sack Vinny 5 times...then how much times do you think the Falcons, who is the best in the league at getting to the QB, will get to the slow moving Testeverde?....I say, with Mawae out, the majority of this O-Line playing out of position, along with inexperienced blockers filling in as well, the skys the limit...
Side Note: The Jets O-Line has allowed 21 sacks so far this season which is 4th most in the league...and is also another reason why this Jets passing offense is ranked 26th in the league..
Sure Testaverde will be going up against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league against the pass, allowing 222.7 ypg...but, how is he suppose to do anything when he wont have the time to do so...Expect the Falcons to bring the house all night long with their Blitzing schemes...and expect DE Kerney, to lead the way....Kerney had one sack last week to give him 45.5 since the start of 2001...Since 2001, only 5 other players has had more sacks then Kerney has...Solid! ...But DE Kerney is not along as tackle Rod Coleman, who also recorded a sack last week and who has the most sack for the Falcons with 6 to be also bringing it hard on Vinny....Oh Boy..Run Vinny Run!
Vinny has gone just 18-for-45...with 7 interceptions in only two career starts at Atlanta...Wow, the news on Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde..just gets better and better for us Falcon backers, now doesnt it...LOL...And, reports this week says that Vinny "the Old Man" Testaverde needed to get some much needed rest during practice and took fewer reps..because he has not been through training camp..and thus was tiring a bit after just two games....Oh my God, if he cant handle two games...how the hell will he be able to recover from all the running he will be doing trying to avoiding the Falcons Blitzes?....Again, the news just get better and better for all us Falcon backers....Love It!
Side Note: Jets Passing Offense - 164.2 ypg (26th) overall...but on the road they are averaging just 54.1% completion...Furthermore, the Jets offense on the road is just averaging just 9 ppg and only 272.3 ypg...while they are allowing opponents to average 22.3 ppg and 329.7 ypg....And, in their last 3 games...2 of which Vinny took over they have averaged 11 .3 ppg and just 213.0 ypg..
Side Note: The Jets offense on the road also only average 78 yards rushing....which is why they only average just 24:58 in TOP and just 14.7 first downs as well.
Side Note: The Jets offense only has 3 passing TDs which is last in the league...and has 6 interceptions as well...Furthermore, the longest passing play this year was for just 37 yard..which is the 3rd shortest in the league..only in front of the Texans and Bears.
Side Note: The Jets offense is the 6th worst team on 3rd down conversion % ..converting just 33.8% of the time.
The Jets will have problems stopping the blitzes as the defenders are small but fast...and they should be able to beat this Jets offensive line, who has already been victimized by a massive switching of positions and personnel, which will make protecting Vinny tonight harder than ever...Lastly, Vinny's record in his last 13 starts for the Jets is just 4 and 9....Very Sad!
*KEY FACTOR # 4: Atlanta's Kicking Game.
-Atlanta is only one of 4 teams in the league who is still kicking 100% perfect in FG's and Xtra pts..
-Jets are 2nd to last in the league at 62.5% on all FG attempts this season....and they are also tied with the 4th shortest FG at 44 yards..
-Atlanta has recorded the longest FG made this year with a 58 yarder.
-Jets kicking game tied for the 2nd fewest in points with only 24 pts...Atlanta kicking game has scored 42 pts..
*Some Stats, Trends, and Info:
-Jets has lost 5 straight road games dating back to last season.
-Jets currently 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season.
-Jets did not play in a Dome yet this year...
-Jets on their 2nd straight road game..
-Jets 0-2 ATS when dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts.
-Jets 0-2 ATS as a Road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts this year...and 2-5 ATS in this role the last 3 seasons..
-Jets 0-2 SU and ATS in Dome games the last 3 seasons.
-Jets 0-5 SU and ATS in games played on turf the last 3 seasons.
-Jets 1-3 ATS as a Dog...and 6-12 ATS as a Dog the last 3 years.
-While some feel that the best road team in the NFC is Philly...Many feel that the best home team is Atlanta with Michael Vick.
-Atlanta needs to win this game to keep pace in their conference which is very strong with TB and Carolina being also among the elite teams in the NFC through six games...With a win tonight though...the Falcons have a chance to move ahead of the Panthers and get within a half-game of the Bucs...Making this one important as well...is the fact that Atlanta needs to still play 4 of its last 6 games on the road, including two games on short weeks....Games at home is games they need to win...
Conclusion:
The Jets offense is too depleted at this stage to be effective, and Atlanta should be able to apply constant pressure to the sitting "Old Man" duck Testaverde tonight...Offensively, the Falcons will be to strong with Vick and Dunn pounding it on the ground..and when that train gets rolling early, I really dont see the having the need to even throw the ball tonight...However, one advantage of having a solid running game is that if you do need to throw the ball...you have the edge with the play action pass which was already set up by the strong running game...Be sure that if Vick does throw it tonight, it will be when they have set those eager beaver Jets defenders up to bite on the run...Mora, will know when the time is right to capitalize on this Jets defense...and Vick will be able to execute with ease to TE Crumpler....Tonight, its going to be all Vick and Dunn...So take the Falcons as a Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK selection ....GL and Lets Go Get Em, Aloha CC.
please disregard any typos and grammatical errors as I didnt have time to edit this book..Thxs
**TOP RATED 7 PT TEASER PLAYS ON: (2 & 3 Units)
Atlanta E & Denver +10 (3 Units) (Winner!)
Atlanta E & Seattle +2 (2 Units) (Winner!)
Atlanta -.5 pt & Va Tech -6.5 (3 Units) (pending!)
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FYI:
-Ok Gang...Monday Night was definately $weet indeed as we end the Week with a Big Winner with my Special-TOP RATED PLAY OF THE WEEK selection...This play is my 2nd Strongest play ratings only behind my "BIG GAME PLAYS"...I also release a couple of Teasers that also hit EZ for me and my clients as well...
Gang..you see this very indepth Write-Up and Game Analysis, I posted with this solid play...Well, that is the kind of work you should expect as well from whoever your buying your plays from, especially on their so-called Big Plays that they are touting....If not, why even watse your time putting even a penny on a play posted without any backing provided.
Remember, anyone can post a play and then label it with a Big Title, followed by claims to have won won this and that with them...If it is big play that is a product of a successful method they follow to produce these plays, then it is very easy to back them up with an Investment Report like I provided with my big plays....No ifs, ands, or buts, about it...Its Very EZ! ...So ask them for one and see what they say...Their is simply to many wannabes Handicappers and Tout Scammers running around here and there claiming to be all kinds of things, and claiming to be able to do all kinds of things, when in fact they cant....Simply ask them to provide and indepth Write-Up and Game Analysis, like what I provide my clients...or ask them to post all their plays shortly after the game goes off, like I do in this Running Thread...and watch them as they run and hide, cause they know that they dont have the Skills to Pay the Bills...Actions speaks louder than words people and their failure to do these things should speak loud and clear to you.
Watch out Gang...who you listen to and who you chose to follow...as real $$$ is involved...Follow those who have proven themselves and who continue to always prove themselves...as this game its not what you did last year or yesterday...its about you being able to continue doing what you did, today (the present) that matters the most...
To be a Winner in this game, you need to put in the time and energy it takes to Win...Or you need to find and follow someone who will and does put in the time and energy needed to Win in this game, for you....If you feel that I can provide that for you...Then, simply jump on board the $$$ Train and I will do just that for you...
Anyways, tomorrow we Rock in the World Series again...So contact me for my Monthly & Weekly-Plays Package- "Specials...and receive as a Bonus all my World Series Plays and all my "BGPs" included at no additional cost to you....Cant beat that deal..and you cant beat the work I definately put in to capping out my plays for all my clients, especially as All the Proof of this is in the Pudding I continually provide in this thread for everyone to see....Who else does this but me...That's right, NO ONE!....GL and Aloha CC.
Cont Info: COCAPTAINSPORTS@YAHO*.COM
comp play(opinion only) on: Neb -1.5
