Fantasy MVP, breakout player, bust?

[seldomseen]

Not a big fan of Lamar Miller in the first rd for a pretty simple reason. He isn't that good.

Unless a guy is in an elite offense or behind an elite offensive line, taking a RB that isn't of elite talent in rd 1 just isn't something I'm a big fan of doing. Especially these days when if you struggle a little bit and aren't a main cog, then they just find someone else to take some of your carries.

He could definitely have a big year if he stays healthy, but just not someone I'd want at his current value.

I remember we talked about this last year. I don't follow the Texans like I do the Dolphins but for all they hype he seemingly gets every year in the fantasy world 3 coaching staffs have never given him more than 15 carries a game. Always came off as a nice guy and improved every year. Worth taking an rb3 or flex option. Better option as a rb2 and certainly not an rb1.

Standard scoring, non ppr, is Gurley worth looking at in the top 3? He literally is an offense and Green/Robinson/Bryant isn't a bad looking wr1.

 

[NBAcapper08]

this thread alone is making me consider taking gurley over jones

 

[JustinCruise]

this thread alone is making me consider taking gurley over jones

I'm assuming you have the first pick in the rx 500 league.

Why Jones over Brown and ODB?

 

[NBAcapper08]

I'm assuming you have the first pick in the rx 500 league.

Why Jones over Brown and ODB?

Jones will score more touchdowns and gain more yards IMO. A bad season for him will be 1350 and 8 a good one could be 2000 and 15

 

[JustinCruise]

what are the odds that both Dez and Romo make it through the year?

Dez already hurt lol

 

[PatsFan1283]

I remember we talked about this last year. I don't follow the Texans like I do the Dolphins but for all they hype he seemingly gets every year in the fantasy world 3 coaching staffs have never given him more than 15 carries a game. Always came off as a nice guy and improved every year. Worth taking an rb3 or flex option. Better option as a rb2 and certainly not an rb1.

Standard scoring, non ppr, is Gurley worth looking at in the top 3? He literally is an offense and Green/Robinson/Bryant isn't a bad looking wr1.

Not a big fan, weak offense, tough schedule, doesn't play all 3 downs.

If I take a RB that high in that type of situation then they better run like AP or Jamaal Charles. Or catch like Matt Forte atleast.

 

[JustinCruise]

Not a big fan, weak offense, tough schedule, doesn't play all 3 downs.

If I take a RB that high in that type of situation then they better run like AP or Jamaal Charles. Or catch like Matt Forte atleast.

I bet Texans offense ends up in the top half of the league

 

[PatsFan1283]

I wasn't referring to Houston, I was referring to the Rams and answering the question he asked.

Think it is best to listen to Hans and Frans on that 1.

(we'll see if anyone gets that)

 

[seldomseen]

Not a big fan, weak offense, tough schedule, doesn't play all 3 downs.

If I take a RB that high in that type of situation then they better run like AP or Jamaal Charles. Or catch like Matt Forte atleast.

I am gonna have to disagree. He's every bit the runner AP and Charles are and given age and injury history probably even more so. Standard scoring he will outperform either of those guys and should get over 20 touches a game even if Benny Cummingham comes in on 3rd down. They brought him along pretty slowly before cutting him lose so its pretty plausible he gets between 30 and 40 receptions.

Harder schedule or not this is the best rb in football. Then again maybe i'm just behind the times and often have a hard time coming off my initial assessment.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Hans and Frans say "Don't be a Gurley Mon"

Decent chance they were talking about drafting Todd in fantasy in the top 3.

I just meant I don't really like him that high because of the negatives. He could definitely have a big year obviously.

 

[JustinCruise]

I really like masters for their payouts but good lord the draft software is horrible

 

[JustinCruise]

Tyrod Taylor is going to have a good year. He will probably end up as my guy


In my league only 4 pts for passing td vs 6 for rushing so that running ability is a huge plus. He schedule looks easy peezy too

QB's are going WAY to early in most leagues right now. Taylor can be had in the 9th or 10th round

 

[JustinCruise]

Reports are that Cam has been unfocused and shaky thus far

I'm telling you, this guy is being drafted in FIRST ROUND in a lot of drafts and we are about to witness a regression this season. He is way overvalued

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

I have participated in about ten mock drafts and can't get a grade above a B-......most are C plus and below.....

I give up....

Taylor
Hill
Murray..Oak
Jones..Atl
TY Hilt
Baldwin
M Jones
D Walker
Green
Colman RB

I let the computer pick the rest....graded a C....third pick

 

[JustinCruise]

I have participated in about ten mock drafts and can't get a grade above a B-......most are C plus and below.....

I give up....

Taylor
Hill
Murray..Oak
Jones..Atl
TY Hilt
Baldwin
M Jones
D Walker
Green
Colman RB

I let the computer pick the rest....graded a C....third pick

Completely ignore those draft grades. They mean absolutely nothing.

Last season my team was graded as A+ in my league and projected to win the whole thing. I didn't even make the playoffs.

 

[JustinCruise]

Kind of extreme, but I have found myself in a few mock drafts taking WR's with my first 5 picks

 

[CHOPTALK]

how many mocks have you done?

Problem with mocks.

Its kind of like play poker with play money.
Its not the same.
Someone is always gonna pick a clown early and mess up the entire thing.
Then when it gets late most people use auto pick.
Plus you also gotta consider location bias.
If you are in a local draft where everyone lives within 100 miles of each other.
Im sure colts players or nearby teams players will get drafted a little higher.
You are doing mocks with people from all 50 states which does not account for location bias.
So the moral of the story they dont help much.

No matter how many mocks you do none of them gonna be like the real draft.

 

[JustinCruise]

how many mocks have you done?

Problem with mocks.

Its kind of like play poker with play money.
Its not the same.
Someone is always gonna pick a clown early and mess up the entire thing.
Then when it gets late most people use auto pick.
Plus you also gotta consider location bias.
If you are in a local draft where everyone lives within 100 miles of each other.
Im sure colts players or nearby teams players will get drafted a little higher.
You are doing mocks with people from all 50 states which does not account for location bias.
So the moral of the story they dont help much.

No matter how many mocks you do none of them gonna be like the real draft.

I've done hundreds of mocks. Some on espn with real players and some against the AI

My league is people from all over the country, not local guys.

Main reason I do them is to catch myself making mistakes in certain scenario's and not repeat them in a real draft. I agree a lot of them are total BS. But experiencing a lot of different scenario's will help you be better prepared for the craziness of the real thing.

Two things i've changed in my strategy this year

1. Focus more on my leagues scoring/ppr. I underestimated the massive difference from standard scoring last season.


2. Don't fall in love with any one player. Last year, there were certain guys I knew I really wanted, so i reached early to get them. Big mistake.

 

[JustinCruise]

Jones will score more touchdowns and gain more yards IMO. A bad season for him will be 1350 and 8 a good one could be 2000 and 15

Julio jones ankle injury

 

[NBAcapper08]

Julio jones ankle injury

now that i have the first 2 picks of the draft i wouldn't mind seeing someone get hurt to make my decisions easier