Fantasy MVP, breakout player, bust?

[PatsFan1283]

I think Brown is slightly overrated based on Ben's lack of durability. When you are taking the top 3 WR's you are splitting hairs and floor matters a lot more than ceiling since all of them are going to eat regardless if everything goes right.

But Brown was awful last year when Ben was hurt and given how he can go down, just doesn't seem worth the risk when compared to Julio or ODB. Another instance why drafts suck, because it is tough to draft ODB over Brown, most will just conform and be a rankings bitch or rankings slave.

Brown has more of a chance to bust based on Ben getting hurt though. Especially in leagues where the lions share of the $ is decided in the final few weeks, what if Ben is hurt for those weeks? Not good!

 

[CHOPTALK]

That is tough to take a guy who is a consensus 6-10 range pick at 2nd overall. That is why I like auction, draft just handcuffs you so much that you can't even really have opinions.

It's either pick a guy 2nd who normally goes 8-10th and be a rankings bitch, or take way the worst of it value wise compared to his normal spot.

You should probably just try to trade down if you can.

Yea it's tough .
Im my experience sometimes it's better to be a ratings bitch if you really high on someone .
Anytime I've gone with the flow on a player in my spot that I don't like I always seem to regret it.

I have no doubts Bell is a better 16 game back then Gurley based on team and situation I just need to figure out what those extra 3 games are worth.

 

[CHOPTALK]

chop why not Antonio Brown in the 2 spot?

That is not a logical pick in a non PPR

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yea it's tough .
Im my experience sometimes it's better to be a ratings bitch if you really high on someone .
Anytime I've gone with the flow on a player in my spot that I don't like I always seem to regret it.

I have no doubts Bell is a better 16 game back then Gurley based on team and situation I just need to figure out what those extra 3 games are worth.

It is always a balance, not just in fantasy but many other areas. I remember you saying Jeremy Hill was gonna be the man last year and Bell was available when Hill was. Sometimes the guy is just ranked lower for a reason.

The extra 3 games isn't the problem if you can get D Will for those 3 games, in an auction that is easy, when he comes up you just bid more than people and unless some maniac is in the league then you are going to get him because he has a higher value to you than everyone else. But in a draft, all someone has to do is reach 1 rd too early and you are stuck punting the first 3 weeks at RB.

Your comment confuses me after reading it. Rankings bitch is going with the guy that you don't like but is the logical and consensus pick. I think you are saying sometimes it is better to not be a rankings bitch and trust your instincts.

 

[Michelangelo]

Chop, the biggest question for you (and all LeVeon takers) is what pick will you need to use to get DeAngelo Williams. If you are confident that you can wait 'till round 8, I say Bell is a fine pick. If you need to take Williams before round 8 the pick is dubious in the #2 slot.

 

[JustinCruise]

That is not a logical pick in a non PPR

he's the consensus #1 pick in all leagues.

Also, I thought you were higher on Ezekial than leveon?

 

[JustinCruise]

I think Brown is slightly overrated based on Ben's lack of durability. When you are taking the top 3 WR's you are splitting hairs and floor matters a lot more than ceiling since all of them are going to eat regardless if everything goes right.

But Brown was awful last year when Ben was hurt and given how he can go down, just doesn't seem worth the risk when compared to Julio or ODB. Another instance why drafts suck, because it is tough to draft ODB over Brown, most will just conform and be a rankings bitch or rankings slave.

Brown has more of a chance to bust based on Ben getting hurt though. Especially in leagues where the lions share of the $ is decided in the final few weeks, what if Ben is hurt for those weeks? Not good!

Any WR value plummets if his qb goes down, granted Ben has more durability issues than Matty ice or eli. But Julio himself has an injury history.

I would take ODB over brown in standard for his big play/TD prowess, but not ppr. Brown is an absolute ppr machine. He's on an entirely different level in that format than any other player in the league.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Eli/Ryan have very little injury risk and even if they do go down, they aren't as good as Big Ben so it isn't as big of a dropoff.

Big Ben's durability is certainly something to factor in as a variable for taking AB.

I wouldn't take ODB over Brown in PPR, that would be too much heart. What I'm moreso saying is I would take him at his market value over ODB in PPR. So what this means is that Brown would go for 68 bucks in an auction and Beckham 53 bucks, I'd rather have Beckham or Julio because I think the Ben durability thing doesn't get enough play. It is not properly priced into his value.

Obviously in a draft you gotta just be a rankings slave and take Brown.

Thu 10/1	vs BAL	L 20-23 (OT)	5	9	42	8.4	17	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Mon 10/12	@ SD	W 24-20	3	6	45	15.0	39	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sun 10/18	vs ARI	W 25-13	3	8	24	8.0	23	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sun 10/25	@ KC	L 13-23	6	8	124	20.7	41	0	1	6	6.0	6	0	0	0

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That is AB's 4 games last year w/o Ben. Probably ran a little under expected value, but he was basically Willie Snead.

 

[JustinCruise]

Dion Lewis having surgery. most likely will be out to start the season

RB's dropping like flies

 

[CHOPTALK]

he's the consensus #1 pick in all leagues.

Also, I thought you were higher on Ezekial than leveon?

Bell
Gurley
Elliot

not gonna mention number 4 because people in my league read this and I can get number 4 in the 5 or 6th round

 

[CHOPTALK]

Chop, the biggest question for you (and all LeVeon takers) is what pick will you need to use to get DeAngelo Williams. If you are confident that you can wait 'till round 8, I say Bell is a fine pick. If you need to take Williams before round 8 the pick is dubious in the #2 slot.

Im not sure but a promise you I won't reach for a handcuff . If he is there when I feel it's a good time to draft him I will.

But no I will certainly not reach for him.

And if I don't get DW I would be ok with that.

If I draft LB it will be with the assumption of not getting DW.

 

[CHOPTALK]

It's funny how almost overnight everyone is converting over to my strategy that I have been using for over 5 years .
People been overdrafting running backs for over a decade and it finally looks like it's going the other direction.

Now it's starting to look like its shifting too far in the WR direction so I guess now it's time for me to become the guy who collects running backs.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't think it has really been overdrafting in standard leagues. WR's just have had a lot less value.

And for most leagues, the goal isn't to come in 6th place, it is to win the game so upside tends to get rewarded in rankings. Why RB's go over WR's. The floor/lower bust rate WR's have had just isn't that valuable in a lot of leagues where the $ goes to 2-3 people.

It is now changing because the NFL is literally changing. More platoons, more injuries at RB, more passing than ever.

Obviously it all depends on the league too.

 

[JustinCruise]

It is now changing because the NFL is literally changing. More platoons, more injuries at RB, more passing than ever.
.

this was going to be my exact response to chop

 

[PatsFan1283]

Another thing is you can't just look at RB vs WR as being about production. A lot of it is about positional scarcity and potential.

People don't take a CJ Anderson 2nd rd strictly because they're so bullish on him, they take him 2nd rd because they don't wanna go with LeGarrette Blount or Darren Sproles as their 2nd RB.

 

[JustinCruise]

if I'm top 5 pick, no question whatsoever I'm taking a wr

in this order.

Antonio Brown
ODB
Julio Jones
DeAndre Hopkins
AJ Green


If picking 6-9, just have to hope a few guys reach early for a RB.

picking 10-12 is no mans land, at least from my mock drafts. The elite WR are gone, I don't really like taking Gronk in round 1, so what do you do. I could see myself going after someone like Leveon Bell here

 

[PatsFan1283]

Cruise, what you do is tell people in your league to man up and go auction.

Pure free market deciding who gets who.

And also a chance to bid on black people if you are salty you missed the whole slavery thing.

 

[Jstack34]

That is not a logical pick in a non PPR

Are you kidding? He had more points than any RB/WR/TE in a standard league in 2015 and that is with Big Ben missing games. And in the games Big Ben missed, he had to deal with Mike Vick as his QB.

 

[Jstack34]

Cruise, what you do is tell people in your league to man up and go auction.

Pure free market deciding who gets who.

And also a chance to bid on black people if you are salty you missed the whole slavery thing.

That last line is too funny.

I think auction does allow you to pick the players you want and build a team based on your strategy....but just something about a snake draft that I love.

 

[seldomseen]

I have AR in a keeper league too. I think this guy will be right there in the second tier of WR. I wouldn't sell on him.

Someone with Dominators should tell us what they say about him.

I almost think he is being underrated in non ppr. He can high point the football with the best of them and has the frame to box defenders out. The question is with the talent surrounding him with Herns, Lee, Green, and Thomas will he get as many opportunities as one of the top 3. Julie had 203 targets ly. Brown 193 and Hopkins 192.

Draft Dominator:
189 PTS
219 UPSIDE
53 VBD
14 EDP

Allen Robinson broke out in a big way in 2015 as he put an enormous statline of 80/1400/14 and became an instant WR superstar. QB Blake Bortles had eyes for Robinson in every phase of the game as he targeted the 2nd-year WR 151 times during the season. Robinson also did the mot with his catches as well as he averaged 17.5 yards per catch and had 4 multi touchdowns games on the season. there is almost nothing bad to say about Robinson's game movin forward as all the same pieces are in place in 2016 to help him continue to have the same success as he did last season. You can still get Robinson at a slight discount in fantasy drafts as he comes with the stigma that he plays for the Jaguars. and they have been a bad offense over the years. That is far from the truth as the Jaguars are one of the offenses on the rise as they have a great group of young core players that have developed together along the way and are ready to continue to put up big numbers moving forward. Robinson will be a nice draft prize for his current ADP.