Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]2013 ranks update: Oldies but goodies

[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
[h=5]ne month of games is complete, which of course still leaves a lot more of the fantasy season. But at least now we have a pretty good idea who is good and who is a Jacksonville Jaguar. The exercise remains the same in this space each Tuesday, as we rank each position and the overall as if we could all start over. Perhaps it helps you gauge value for free-agent pickups or for potential trades.

Remember, these are not the Week 5 rankings; those will be posted Wednesday. Have thoughts? Hit me up on Twitter (@karabellespn). And enjoy!

<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Quick click by position, for easy reference:</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 40 Quarterbacks[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1 Peyton Manning Den 1
2 Aaron Rodgers GB 2
3 Drew Brees NO 3
4 Cam Newton Car 4
5 Matt Ryan Atl 5
6 Tom Brady NE 6
7 Matthew Stafford Det 7
8 Colin Kaepernick SF 8
9 Andrew Luck Ind 10
10 Michael Vick Phi 9
11 Tony Romo Dal 13
12 Robert Griffin III Wsh 12
13 Philip Rivers SD 18
14 Russell Wilson Sea 11
15 Terrelle Pryor Oak 14
16 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 21
17 Sam Bradford StL 15
18 Jay Cutler Chi 16
19 Joe Flacco Bal 19
20 Matt Schaub Hou 24
21 Brian Hoyer Cle 31
22 Andy Dalton Cin 20
23 Alex Smith KC 29
24 Eli Manning NYG 17
25 Geno Smith NYJ 22
26 EJ Manuel Buf 23
27 Carson Palmer Ari 25
28 Ryan Tannehill Mia 26
29 Ryan Fitzpatrick Ten --
30 Christian Ponder Min 27
31 Matt Cassel Min --
32 Blaine Gabbert Jac 32
33 Mike Glennon TB 35
34 Matt Flynn Oak 38
35 Jake Locker Ten 28
36 Josh Freeman TB 30
37 Chad Henne Jac 33
38 Brandon Weeden Cle 34
39 Nick Foles Phi 37
40 Kirk Cousins Wsh 36

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Let's start at the top: Clearly what Denver Broncos Hall of Famer Peyton Manning is doing is special, and it might seem tough to argue against any fantasy owner basically trading away "what it takes" to get him. You'll see Manning separate himself from the other top quarterbacks a bit in the overall top 100 this week. However, colleague Christopher Harris accurately summarizes in his Monday article why Manning being awesome might not mean as much to your overall fantasy team as you might think, and it explains why we keep preaching running backs in the first round of drafts:

"The fact is that when Manning scores 29 fantasy points in a week, it's really satisfying, but it's 'only' roughly a 13-point advantage over the replacement-level quarterback. When Adrian Peterson scores 26 fantasy points, it's about a 20-point advantage over the replacement-level RB. That's why, in a vacuum, having the best RBs play like the best RBs is the best-case scenario for your fantasy team."

Just something to consider while talking trade for Manning. He's still the No. 1 quarterback, though. In fact, there's no change among the top eight in the quarterback rankings. Andrew Luck does switch spots with Michael Vick in the top 10, while Tony Romo and Philip Riversmove up to potential-starter range, withRussell Wilson taking a minor hit. Wilson looked awful in the win over the Houston Texans until he began running in the second half, and let's be clear, he hasn't done much running this season. That's his differentiator. Romo and Rivers are effective, safe pocket passers; Romo is annually undervalued, while I finally admit the new Rivers under coordinator Ken Whisenhunt does look pretty good. Rivers has topped 20 fantasy points three times. He, Manning and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks with double-digit touchdown passes, and after tossing 35 interceptions over the previous two seasons, Rivers has only two through four contests this season. He and Romo are strong backups, or deep-league starters. Vick is, too, but be careful in judging any player by season statistics; Vick has averaged 14 fantasy points the past two games.

Deeper down at this position, it's reasonable to believe in Cleveland Browns newcomerBrian Hoyer, though he still sits down at No. 21 in the rankings. I'd still be a little wary that the Browns give the starting job back to Brandon Weeden as soon as Hoyer struggles. But in the short term, I'd take him over Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and the AFC East rookies (Geno Smith, EJ Manuel). Dalton is holding back the Cincinnati Bengals. Eli Manning isn't the lone reason the New York Giants stink, but he's part of the problem. The Eli ranking is probably a bit unfair; if he can't throw on the miserable Philadelphia Eagles defense in Week 5, then I'll feel it'll be more warranted. Entering the rankings are backups Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Tennessee Titans and Matt Cassel of the Minnesota Vikings. We've seen their acts before. Fitzpatrick replaces the injured Jake Locker, which is a shame because Locker was playing so well. Then again, Fitzpatrick is a veteran guy who has had periods of fantasy relevance before, so it's not going to hurt the offense. Cassel is less likely to keep his starting role.

</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 60 Running Backs[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1 Adrian Peterson Min 1
2 Jamaal Charles KC 3
3 LeSean McCoy Phi 2
4 Marshawn Lynch Sea 4
5 Arian Foster Hou 6
6 Matt Forte Chi 7
7 Doug Martin TB 5
8 Alfred Morris Wsh 8
9 Reggie Bush Det 15
10 C.J. Spiller Buf 9
11 Ray Rice Bal 11
12 Trent Richardson Ind 12
13 Chris Johnson Ten 10
14 Frank Gore SF 17
15 DeMarco Murray Dal 13
16 Darren Sproles NO 18
17 DeAngelo Williams Car 14
18 Lamar Miller Mia 20
19 Le'Veon Bell Pit 45
20 Giovani Bernard Cin 22
21 Eddie Lacy GB 23
22 Darren McFadden Oak 16
23 Joique Bell Det 24
24 Steven Jackson Atl 25
25 Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 19
26 Knowshon Moreno Den 30
27 Fred Jackson Buf 26
28 Stevan Ridley NE 27
29 David Wilson NYG 28
30 Ahmad Bradshaw Ind 21
31 Ryan Mathews SD 29
32 Bilal Powell NYJ 35
33 Bernard Pierce Bal 31
34 Rashard Mendenhall Ari 32
35 Jacquizz Rodgers Atl 40
36 Ben Tate Hou 33
37 BenJarvus Green-Ellis Cin 34
38 Willis McGahee Cle 43
39 Jason Snelling Atl 41
40 Danny Woodhead SD 54
41 LeGarrette Blount NE 43
42 Daryl Richardson StL 36
43 Isaiah Pead StL 37
44 Daniel Thomas Mia 38
45 Bryce Brown Phi 47
46 Montee Ball Den 39
47 Brandon Bolden NE 46
48 Michael Bush Chi 42
49 Ronnie Hillman Den 52
50 James Starks GB 44
51 Kendall Hunter SF 50
52 Roy Helu Wsh --
53 Andre Ellington Ari 53
54 Pierre Thomas NO 55
55 Khiry Robinson NO 57
56 Mark Ingram NO 48
57 Chris Ogbonnaya Cle --
58 Chris Ivory NYJ 49
59 Rashad Jennings Oak --
60 Tashard Choice Buf --

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Texans star Arian Foster moves back into the top five on the heels of his fine and somewhat surprising Sunday performance, in which he rushed 27 times and totaled 171 yards and a touchdown. On the surface, it's not odd that Foster did well; when healthy, he's arguably the No. 2 running back after Adrian Peterson, and the case can be made he deserves that designation again. Foster achieved his 22 fantasy points -- he entered Week 4 with 28 fantasy points in three games -- against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense, and co-conspirator Ben Tate was bestowed only seven carries. Tate ran well while active, but he also lost a fumble, which could have led to Foster getting more touches. For now, Foster is only fifth overall, though he could move up soon.Jamaal Charles, now at No. 2, is playing at a high level, though it will be nice to see if he can feast on some non-NFC East defenses.LeSean McCoy still leads the NFL in rushing, and Marshawn Lynch has some tasty matchups on the horizon.

As noted in Sunday's Four Downs blog entry,Detroit Lions star Reggie Bush has forced his way into the top 10, passing several players who didn't do much Sunday. Is C.J. Spillerhealthy, and what happens if Fred Jackson is healthier? It's doubtful we'll get an answer this week. Why did the Baltimore Ravens use their running backs sparingly, including Ray Rice, on Sunday? Rice and his sore hip were good enough to play, but with the offensive line struggling, it might not matter. And is it possible everyone has simply overratedIndianapolis Colts starter Trent Richardson? Sure, he scored a touchdown in Week 4, but he turned his 20 rushing attempts into just 60 yards. Are people expecting him to suddenly average 4.5 yards per carry, as Bush has done for years? Richardson remains just outside the top 10, but if Ahmad Bradshaw hadn't missed the Week 4 game -- and who knows about his future -- then would Richardson have seen 20 touches? I'd consider selling high.

Frankly, it's getting tougher to find 20 reliable running backs to fill the top 20, so much that a leap of faith must be taken with rookiesLe'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers,Giovani Bernard of the Bengals and Eddie Lacy of the Green Bay Packers. Bell's first game went reasonably well. He scored a pair of touchdowns and wasn't sharing touches. The job is his. The Steelers figure to give him plenty of attention. Bernard didn't have a great game Sunday, but one would think at some point the Bengals will realize that Andy Dalton throwing 40-something times in a game is a bad idea. BenJarvus Green-Elliswasn't much of a factor. And Lacy comes off a bye week and figures to be healthy, and like Bell, he'll be handling most of the running back touches for his team. Hey, it beats relying on veterans who can't stay healthy, such as the Oakland Raiders' Darren McFadden -- we never seem to learn on him -- and poor Maurice Jones-Drew of theJacksonville Jaguars. That Jaguars situation is not improving.

The Raiders' Rashad Jennings used to back up Jones-Drew and now does so for McFadden. Hey, it's a living, and a potentially profitable one because Jennings might end up starting this week with McFadden dealing with a hamstring injury. Jennings enters the rankings, as does Chris Ogbonnaya of the Browns and Roy Helu of the Washington Redskins. Ogbonnaya is a fullback who catches passes, and he scored Sunday. Willis McGahee still gets more touches, but Ogbonnaya has value in a deeper format too, perhaps as a Marcel Reece type. By the way, Reece is hurt, too. Helu is insurance for Alfred Morris, who was dinged up Sunday but says he'll play in Week 6 (after the bye week). And because both relevant Buffalo Bills running backs are hurting, it's possible Tashard Choice becomes the choice this Thursday against the Browns. Hard to believe.

</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 60 Wide Receivers[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1 Calvin Johnson Det 1
2 Dez Bryant Dal 3
3 Julio Jones Atl 4
4 A.J. Green Cin 2
5 Demaryius Thomas Den 6
6 Brandon Marshall Chi 5
7 Wes Welker Den 9
8 Larry Fitzgerald Ari 7
9 Randall Cobb GB 8
10 Victor Cruz NYG 12
11 Jordy Nelson GB 10
12 Andre Johnson Hou 13
13 Reggie Wayne Ind 14
14 Vincent Jackson TB 11
15 Eric Decker Den 15
16 Marques Colston NO 16
17 Pierre Garcon Wsh 17
18 Antonio Brown Pit 22
19 Anquan Boldin SF 21
20 Steve Smith Car 20
21 DeSean Jackson Phi 18
22 Hakeem Nicks NYG 19
23 Steve Johnson Buf 23
24 Torrey Smith Bal 31
25 Mike Wallace Mia 24
26 Roddy White Atl 25
27 James Jones GB 26
28 Julian Edelman NE 27
29 Cecil Shorts Jac 28
30 Dwayne Bowe KC 30
31 Danny Amendola NE 32
32 Tavon Austin StL 29
33 Josh Gordon Cle 33
34 Greg Jennings Min 39
35 Mike Williams TB 37
36 T.Y. Hilton Ind 36
37 Brian Hartline Mia 35
38 Kenbrell Thompkins NE 44
39 DeAndre Hopkins Hou 38
40 Sidney Rice Sea 34
41 Alshon Jeffery Chi 47
42 Eddie Royal SD 40
43 Lance Moore NO 41
44 Golden Tate Sea 43
45 Kendall Wright Ten 48
46 Chris Givens StL 42
47 Miles Austin Dal 45
48 Nate Washington Ten 55
49 Aaron Dobson NE 46
50 Emmanuel Sanders Pit 52
51 Marlon Brown Bal 57
52 Robert Woods Buf --
53 Justin Blackmon Jac 60
54 Denarius Moore Oak 51
55 Jeremy Kerley NYJ --
56 Vincent Brown SD 53
57 Jerome Simpson Min --
58 Ryan Broyles Det 54
59 Keenan Allen SD --
60 Austin Pettis StL --

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How much difference does a quarterback make to a wide receiver? Well, sometimes it can mean a great deal, and it can affect fantasy value. Just don't get carried away.Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson is a strong example. With rookie quarterback Mike Glennon taking over forJosh Freeman, Jackson's value seemed to drop. And then he caught a mere two passes Sunday, though in fairness Arizona Cardinalscornerback Patrick Peterson is a tough cover corner. Jackson did see 11 targets, and colleague Mike Williams scored a touchdown. If you own these guys, don't run away, even if their value drops slightly.

Then there are the backup quarterbacks taking over in Tennessee and Minnesota. The Titans' Nate Washington tied with the Giants'Victor Cruz and Baltimore Ravens' Torrey Smith as the highest-scoring wide receivers in Week 4, but those other two fellows are far more reliable. Washington had a big game in Week 3 as well, with Jake Locker as his quarterback, and most of his fantasy goodness Sunday came on a 77-yard touchdown play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Steve Johnson managed to be a decent WR2/WR3 (depending on league size) with Fitzpatrick at quarterback, but don't overrate Washington. He's not likely to become a No. 3 fantasy receiver anytime soon. The Vikings' Greg Jennings has a better shot; he turned a short Matt Cassel pass into a 70-yard score and later had a 16-yard touchdown. Jennings has WR2 upside, though that's a bit optimistic.

Perhaps it's also a bit optimistic in thinking the low-scoring Jaguars can produce anything valuable, but let's remember the 2012 season. Cecil Shorts finished 22nd among all wide receivers in standard scoring, and Justin Blackmon wasn't far behind. And this was accomplished with, for most of the time,Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Chad Hennehad one great game, but that was it. The point is, Blackmon's suspension is finally over and he'll likely start this week. Shorts, for those who have noticed, has an impressive 23 receptions over the past three weeks, averaging nearly 100 receiving yards per game. I'd prefer to own Shorts over Blackmon, but even if it's for their garbage-time numbers, both should be owned and occasionally started.

Among the receivers movin' on up this week are the Steelers' Antonio Brown, the Ravens' Torrey Smith, the Patriots' Kenbrell Thompkins, the Chicago Bears' Alshon Jefferyand Bills rookie Robert Woods. Brown has seen 13 targets each of the past two weeks, and Ben Roethlisberger has been productive. Smith was playing well before his monster game Sunday, approaching 100 receiving yards each game. Thompkins remains a bit erratic, but he certainly delivered the numbers Sunday night, with 127 yards and a touchdown. The return of Danny Amendolacould hurt Julian Edelman just as much, if not more. Jeffery will likely remain hit or miss -- this was his first "hit" -- but there are awful NFC East defenses coming up. Woods still isn't getting many targets, but his multitouchdown effort Sunday should earn him more.

Philly's DeSean Jackson, the Giants' Hakeem Nicks, the St. Louis Rams' Tavon Austin andChris Givens, the Seahawks' Sidney Rice and the Lions' Ryan Broyles are among those movin' down this week. Jackson's value is tied to Vick's; he still has never caught 65 passes in a season, and it doesn't look likely this year as defenses have adjusted to the fact that the Eagles don't possess receiving depth and can key on him. Jackson has five catches in two weeks. Nicks caught three passes Sunday, but at least it was three more than the week prior. With the Rams, perhaps this now-struggling offense was given too much credit a month ago. Rice had a nice Week 3 game against the Jaguars, but in the other three games he has caught four passes total. And Broyles might be the biggest disappointment of all. Starter Nate Burleson breaks an arm in an auto accident and Broyles gets the start, then sees one target in a game in which his team scores 40 points.

</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 30 Tight Ends[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1 Jimmy Graham NO 1
2 Jordan Cameron Cle 3
3 Rob Gronkowski NE 2
4 Tony Gonzalez Atl 5
5 Jason Witten Dal 4
6 Julius Thomas Den 7
7 Vernon Davis SF 6
8 Antonio Gates SD 10
9 Greg Olsen Car 8
10 Owen Daniels Hou 11
11 Jared Cook StL 9
12 Martellus Bennett Chi 14
13 Coby Fleener Ind 15
14 Heath Miller Pit 16
15 Brandon Myers NYG 12
16 Kyle Rudolph Min 13
17 Charles Clay Mia 17
18 Jermichael Finley GB 18
19 Tyler Eifert Cin 19
20 Brent Celek Phi 20
21 Garrett Graham Hou --
22 Joseph Fauria Det 21
23 Jermaine Gresham Cin 22
24 Dallas Clark Bal 23
25 Brandon Pettigrew Det 24
26 Kellen Winslow NYJ 28
27 Delanie Walker Ten 25
28 Rob Housler Ari 27
29 Scott Chandler Buf 29
30 Zach Miller Sea 30

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Three tight ends caught 10 or more passes Sunday. Jordan Cameron of the Browns was first that day, seeing another 12 targets and scoring for the fifth time. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is, Cameron moves up to the No. 2 spot in the rankings. Why does he leapfrog the great Rob Gronkowski? Well, it's Week 5 now, folks. Gronk has been cleared to play, according to reports, yet still hasn't played. And who knows if it happens in Week 5? The point is, we know Cameron is healthy and productive. With Gronkowski, I'm starting to worry a bit. And by the way, not only has Jimmy Graham gotten off to a magical start, but there is no wide receiver with more fantasy points than Cameron, too!

Gronkowski remains ahead of Tony Gonzalez(for now), who after catching a mere 11 passes in three weeks exploded for 12 catches Sunday night, including a pair of touchdowns. It was one of the bigger games in Gonzalez's storied career, in fact. Reports of any demise with him were obviously exaggerated. And finally, speaking of demise, check out San Diego's Antonio Gates! He has three consecutive games of double-digit fantasy scoring, just like the good ol' days. Man, the Chargers have a nice schedule this season.

It remains to be seen if the Colts' Coby Fleener is worthy of top-10 status. He caught his second touchdown Sunday and is producing big numbers after the catch. It's clear Andrew Luck is looking at his Stanford teammate Fleener more, and with Dwayne Allen out for the season, there's little competition at tight end in Indy. Fleener moves up a few spots, along with the Bears'Martellus Bennett and the Texans' Garrett Graham. Bennett did not score Sunday, but he can be forgiven because he saw 12 targets and hauled in eight of them for 90 yards. And as noted with wide receiver Jeffery, check the Bears' schedule: Up next are the Saints, Giants, Redskins, bye, Packers and Lions. As for Graham, perhaps it's odd picking up a clear reserve tight end, but he has scored touchdowns in three of four games. Owen Danielsgets more receptions, yards and fantasy points, but touchdowns matter.

</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 32 Defense/Special Teams[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"> </center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rank</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1 Seattle Seahawks 1 17 New Orleans Saints 19
2 Chicago Bears 2 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
3 Cincinnati Bengals 3 19 Arizona Cardinals 18
4 Denver Broncos 4 20 Detroit Lions 24
5 Baltimore Ravens 5 21 Tennessee Titans 23
6 Houston Texans 6 22 Carolina Panthers 20
7 New England Patriots 7 23 St. Louis Rams 21
8 San Francisco 49ers 10 24 Minnesota Vikings 22
9 Kansas City Chiefs 13 25 New York Jets 25
10 Cleveland Browns 15 26 San Diego Chargers 26
11 Green Bay Packers 8 27 Buffalo Bills 27
12 Miami Dolphins 9 28 Oakland Raiders 29
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 11 29 Washington Redskins 32
14 Atlanta Falcons 14 30 New York Giants 28
15 Dallas Cowboys 12 31 Philadelphia Eagles 30
16 Indianapolis Colts 17 32 Jacksonville Jaguars 31

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</offer>[/h][h=3]Top 100 Overall[/h][h=5]<offer style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Ovr.
Rank</center> Player <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos.
Rank</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Next 3
Weeks</center> <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.
Rank</center>
1 Adrian Peterson Min RB1 BYE, Car, @NYG 1
2 Jamaal Charles KC RB2 @Ten, Oak, Hou 3
3 LeSean McCoy Phi RB3 @NYG, @TB, Dal 2
4 Marshawn Lynch Sea RB4 @Ind, Ten, @Ari 4
5 Arian Foster Hou RB5 @SF, StL, @KC 6
6 Matt Forte Chi RB6 NO, NYG, @Wsh 7
7 Doug Martin TB RB7 BYE, Phi, @Atl 5
8 Alfred Morris Wsh RB8 BYE, @Dal, Chi 8
9 Reggie Bush Det RB9 @GB, @Cle, Cin 17
10 C.J. Spiller Buf RB10 @Cle, Cin, @Mia 9
11 Ray Rice Bal RB11 @Mia, GB, @Pit 11
12 Trent Richardson Ind RB12 Sea, @SD, Den 12
13 Peyton Manning Den QB1 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 20
14 Chris Johnson Ten RB13 KC, @Sea, SF 10
15 Calvin Johnson Det WR1 @GB, @Cle, Cin 14
16 Jimmy Graham NO TE1 @Chi, @NE, BYE 15
17 Frank Gore SF RB14 Hou, Ari, @Ten 26
18 DeMarco Murray Dal RB15 Den, Wsh, @Phi 13
19 Dez Bryant Dal WR2 Den, Wsh, @Phi 19
20 Julio Jones Atl WR3 NYJ, BYE, TB 25
21 Aaron Rodgers GB QB2 Det, @Bal, Cle 21
22 Drew Brees NO QB3 @Chi, @NE, BYE 22
23 Cam Newton Car QB4 @Ari, @Min, StL 23
24 A.J. Green Cin WR4 NE, @Buf, @Det 18
25 Demaryius Thomas Den WR5 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 28
26 Brandon Marshall Chi WR6 NO, NYG, @Wsh 27
27 Wes Welker Den WR7 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 31
28 Darren Sproles NO RB16 @Chi, @NE, BYE 35
29 DeAngelo Williams Car RB17 @Ari, @Min, StL 16
30 Larry Fitzgerald Ari WR8 Car, @SF, Sea 29
31 Randall Cobb GB WR9 Det, @Bal, Cle 30
32 Matt Ryan Atl QB5 NYJ, BYE, TB 32
33 Victor Cruz NYG WR10 Phi, @Chi, Min 37
34 Tom Brady NE QB6 @Cin, NO, @NYJ 34
35 Jordan Cameron Cle TE2 Buf, Det, @GB 58
36 Lamar Miller Mia RB18 Bal, BYE, Buf 42
37 Jordy Nelson GB WR11 Det, @Bal, Cle 33
38 Andre Johnson Hou WR12 @SF, StL, @KC 41
39 Matthew Stafford Det QB7 @GB, @Cle, Cin 38
40 Colin Kaepernick SF QB8 Hou, Ari, @Ten 40
41 Reggie Wayne Ind WR13 Sea, @SD, Den 43
42 Vincent Jackson TB WR14 BYE, Phi, @Atl 36
43 Eric Decker Den WR15 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 44
44 Marques Colston NO WR16 @Chi, @NE, BYE 45
45 Pierre Garcon Wsh WR17 BYE, @Dal, Chi 46
46 Le'Veon Bell Pit RB19 BYE, @NYJ, Bal NR
47 Giovani Bernard Cin RB20 NE, @Buf, @Det 48
48 Eddie Lacy GB RB21 Det, @Bal, Cle 52
49 Darren McFadden Oak RB22 SD, @KC, BYE 24
50 Antonio Brown Pit WR18 BYE, @NYJ, Bal 57
51 Anquan Boldin SF WR19 Hou, Ari, @Ten 54
52 Joique Bell Det RB23 @GB, @Cle, Cin 56
53 Steve Smith Car WR20 @Ari, @Min, StL 53
54 DeSean Jackson Phi WR21 @NYG, @TB, Dal 49
55 Andrew Luck Ind QB9 Sea, @SD, Den 66
56 Steven Jackson Atl RB24 NYJ, BYE, TB 59
57 Hakeem Nicks NYG WR22 Phi, @Chi, Min 51
58 Rob Gronkowski NE TE3 @Cin, NO, @NYJ 50
59 Tony Gonzalez Atl TE4 NYJ, BYE, TB 72
60 Maurice Jones-Drew Jac RB25 @StL, @Den, SD 39
61 Jason Witten Dal TE5 Den, Wsh, @Phi 62
62 Steve Johnson Buf WR23 @Cle, Cin, @Mia 60
63 Knowshon Moreno Den RB26 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 78
64 Fred Jackson Buf RB27 @Cle, Cin, @Mia 61
65 Torrey Smith Bal WR24 @Mia, GB, @Pit 77
66 Mike Wallace Mia WR25 Bal, BYE, Buf 64
67 Michael Vick Phi QB10 @NYG, @TB, Dal 55
68 Stevan Ridley NE RB28 @Cin, NO, @NYJ 63
69 David Wilson NYG RB29 Phi, @Chi, Min 67
70 Roddy White Atl WR26 NYJ, BYE, TB 65
71 James Jones GB WR27 Det, @Bal, Cle 69
72 Tony Romo Dal QB11 Den, Wsh, @Phi 93
73 Robert Griffin III Wsh QB12 BYE, @Dal, Chi 73
74 Julian Edelman NE WR28 @Cin, NO, @NYJ 70
75 Julius Thomas Den TE6 @Dal, Jac, @Ind 84
76 Vernon Davis SF TE7 Hou, Ari, @Ten 83
77 Cecil Shorts Jac WR29 @StL, @Den, SD 74
78 Dwayne Bowe KC WR30 @Ten, Oak, Hou 76
79 Danny Amendola NE WR31 @Cin, NO, @NYJ 79
80 Antonio Gates SD TE8 @Oak, Ind, @Jac NR
81 Tavon Austin StL WR32 Jac, @Hou, @Car 75
82 Greg Olsen Car TE9 @Ari, @Min, StL NR
83 Ahmad Bradshaw Ind RB30 Sea, @SD, Den 47
84 Owen Daniels Hou TE10 @SF, StL, @KC NR
85 Ryan Mathews SD RB31 @Oak, Ind, @Jac 68
86 Josh Gordon Cle WR33 Buf, Det, @GB 82
87 Bilal Powell NYJ RB32 @Atl, Pit, NE 90
88 Greg Jennings Min WR34 BYE, Car, @NYG 97
89 Bernard Pierce Bal RB33 @Mia, GB, @Pit 80
90 Mike Williams TB WR35 BYE, Phi, @Atl 91
91 Rashard Mendenhall Ari RB34 Car, @SF, Sea 81
92 T.Y. Hilton Ind WR36 Sea, @SD, Den 89
93 Jacquizz Rodgers Atl RB35 NYJ, BYE, TB 99
94 Brian Hartline Mia WR37 Bal, BYE, Buf 87
95 Philip Rivers SD QB13 @Oak, Ind, @Jac NR
96 Ben Tate Hou RB36 @SF, StL, @KC 85
97 Kenbrell Thompkins NE WR38 @Cin, NO, @NYJ NR
98 DeAndre Hopkins Hou WR39 @SF, StL, @KC 95
99 Sidney Rice Sea WR40 @Ind, Ten, @Ari 86
100 Alshon Jeffery Chi WR41 NO, NYG, @Wsh NR

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</offer>[/h]

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 5[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

He is the No. 3 scorer in fantasy thus far, the leader in 400-yard passing games (two) and he ranks second in the league in Total QBR (81.4).
And despite that, Philip Rivers is as strong a sell-high candidate as there is.
Rivers, fresh off a 26-point fantasy Week 4, and two weeks removed from a career-best 29-point Week 2, might be a popular name right now. However, a quick look at his performance in terms of consistency metrics -- and that's not merely from a career perspective, but alsothis year -- raises questions, some of the same ones that surrounded him during the preseason.

Rivers is the only one of the top 12 fantasy scorers through four weeks to have registered a "Stiff" score -- bearing in mind that a quarterback must finish outside the top 20 at the position to be labeled that -- as he's nine days removed from an 11-point stinker at the Tennessee Titans (Week 3). Where was the Rivers love then? Granted, the Titans' defense is off to a hot start, allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (11.0), but at the same time, Matt Schaub, owned in considerably fewer leagues (33.8 percent of ESPN leagues, compared to Rivers' 72.3), dropped 19 points on them in Week 2.

Rivers also has only the 13th-best Consistency Rating (40.4 percent) among quarterbacks since the beginning of 2010, his nine "Stiff" performances during that span second only to Eli Manning's 15 among those in the 40 percent-or-better group. Now let's break down Rivers' consistency stats by matchup:

Toughest 8: 11 G, 2 Start (18.2 percent), 0 Stud, 3 Stiff
Middle 16: 19 G, 8 Start (42.1 percent), 0 Stud, 6 Stiff
Easiest 8: 22 G, 11 Start (50.0 percent), 3 Stud, 0 Stiff

In addition, as arm strength was a question for him during his poor 2012, Rivers appears to be easing off deeper throws: He has averaged just 7.0 attempts of at least 15 yards and 3.0 of at least 20 yards downfield this season, within the ballpark of 2012's 6.8 and 3.6 and still beneath his 8.7 and 4.2 averages from 2009 to 2011. Consider that Rivers tallied 342 of his 802 yards in the Philadelphia Eagles (Week 2) and Dallas Cowboys (Week 4) games on throws of that depth, both of those representing two of the bottom-eight pass defenses in the game, and there's compelling evidence that he's again exploiting only his most favorable matchups.

Granted, Rivers' short-term schedule supports the notion of keeping him on hand: The San Diego Chargers' schedule goes @Oak, Ind, @Jac leading into their Week 8 bye, then @Wsh coming out of it. However, from Week 10 forward -- the critical fantasy weeks -- the Chargers have some potentially treacherous matchups: Den (Week 10), @KC (Week 12), Cin (Week 13), @Den (Week 15) and KC (Week 17).

Maybe the best move with Rivers is to hope he'll boost his trade stock leading into the Week 8 bye, with that Washington Redskins matchup after it a prime selling point. If you're formulating your late-season roster plans around him, however, you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Sticking with the theme of potential sell-high candidates, here are a few other players whose consistency numbers label them shaky long-term bets:

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: He's still 100 percent owned in ESPN leagues, he's the subject of countless weekly start-or-sit questions and perhaps his owners feel as if there's a little hope surrounding him now that he has multiple double-digit fantasy efforts in the past three weeks. Still, Bowe's history of inconsistency and, more importantly, of exploiting only the most favorable matchups, is disconcerting. Consider his 2010 to 2013 stats by matchup:
Toughest 8: 13 G, 1 Start (7.7 percent), 0 Stud, 5 Stiff
Middle 16: 21 G, 9 Start (42.9 percent), 5 Stud, 5 Stiff
Easiest 8: 15 G, 10 Start (66.7 percent), 2 Stud, 2 Stiff
Bowe has 453 fantasy points total since the beginning of 2010, or 9.2 per game. Nearly 40 percent of those came in games against the eight most favorable matchups for wide receivers in those seasons (38.9 percent to be exact), as he has averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game in those, but only 4.7 points per game against the eight toughest matchups for the position. That meaningless 34-yard score with approximately three minutes to play in Week 4 might have given Bowe's owners their last opportunity to cash in his chip.
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys: He was a smart mid-to-late-round pick, or quarterback in the 10-12 range at his position, in the preseason, but no one should've mistaken that for significant growth potential. Through four weeks, Romo ranks 10th in fantasy points (67), averaging 16.8 per game. Last season, he averaged 16.9 fantasy points per contest. The Consistency Ratings have always underscored how maddeningly unpredictable he can be; since the beginning of 2010 he has warranted being in your starting lineup in only 42.9 percent of the games he has played (keeping in mind that he sat 10 games during that time).
Breaking down Romo's consistency stats also shows how difficult he is to predict even when the matchups suggest he's worth a look:
Toughest 8: 10 G, 3 Start (30.0 percent), 0 Stud, 2 Stiff
Middle 16: 20 G, 9 Start (45.0 percent), 2 Stud, 3 Stiff
Easiest 8: 12 G, 6 Start (50.0 percent), 1 Stud, 1 Stiff
It might seem as if Romo's passing stats will receive a boost when he's playing within the division, as the NFC East places all four of its teams within the top six in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but those numbers hint that it's no guarantee. It's the most favorable case to be made for him -- adding the fact his remaining out-of-division games are Den (Week 5), @Det (Week 8), Min (Week 9), @NO (Week 10), Oak (Week 13), @Chi (Week 14) and GB (Week 15) -- but one that could be as much a sell-high as a stick-with case.
[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2012 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:

	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>
QB	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
RB	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
WR	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
TE	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
K	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
D/ST	Top 10	Top 2	21st+

Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears: In a season during which running back production is down, it might be tempting to treat Forte as a top-five option at his position, considering that he ranks fourth in fantasy scoring at the position thus far (61 points). The problem with that, however, is that he is traditionally not a strong bet for touchdown production, and his fantasy production has been inflated by his having already scored half as many this year (three) as last (six). Once again, let's go to those consistency matchups breakdowns, though in Forte's case, bear in mind that his percentages will be higher here because of the five games he has missed since the beginning of 2010:
Toughest 8: 11 G, 6 Start (54.5 percent), 3 Stud, 1 Stiff
Middle 16: 20 G, 15 Start (75.0 percent), 1 Stud, 0 Stiff
Easiest 8: 16 G, 14 Start (87.5 percent), 6 Stud, 1 Stiff
Here's why these numbers matter with Forte:
• During that time span, he has two multi-TD games. All of his TDs in those games were of 18 yards or greater and both games were against bottom-eight D's.
• Twelve of Forte's 22 total TDs during that time came against bottom-eight D's, and all but one was of greater than 5 yards in distance.
Forte's production -- or in his case lack thereof -- at the goal line represents the most significant argument against him ever being a top-five running back … except possibly in PPR formats. His three touchdowns this season have been 1, 5 and 53 yards in length, and the following stats show how poor a performer he has been at the goal line since 2010:
• 20.0 percent TD conversion rate at the 1-yard line (league average 52.3 percent)
• 18.8 percent TD conversion rate inside the 3 (league average 44.8)
• 18.5 percent TD conversion rate inside the 5 (league average 38.4)
(minimum 10 attempts for each of these statistics)
[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have met at least one of the following minimums for inclusion in the chart: 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in standard scoring leagues, 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in PPR formats. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.
These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">%</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sat</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">PPR%</center>
Peyton Manning	Den	100.0%	QB	4	4	2	0	0	100.0%
Jamaal Charles	KC	100.0%	RB	4	4	2	0	0	100.0%
Jordan Cameron	Cle	100.0%	TE	4	4	1	0	0	100.0%
Matt Forte	Chi	100.0%	RB	4	4	2	0	0	100.0%
Julio Jones	Atl	100.0%	WR	4	4	1	0	0	100.0%
Jordy Nelson	GB	100.0%	WR	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Fred Jackson	Buf	100.0%	RB	4	4	0	0	0	100.0%
Adrian Peterson	Min	100.0%	RB	4	4	2	0	0	75.0%
LeSean McCoy	Phi	100.0%	RB	4	4	3	0	0	75.0%
DeAngelo Williams	Car	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	66.7%
Bilal Powell	NYJ	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Drew Brees	NO	75.0%	QB	4	3	2	0	0	75.0%
Philip Rivers	SD	75.0%	QB	4	3	0	1	0	75.0%
Jimmy Graham	NO	75.0%	TE	4	3	3	0	0	75.0%
Matthew Stafford	Det	75.0%	QB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Andrew Luck	Ind	75.0%	QB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Chiefs D/ST	KC	75.0%	D/ST	4	3	1	0	0	75.0%
Matt Schaub	Hou	75.0%	QB	4	3	0	1	0	75.0%
Victor Cruz	NYG	75.0%	WR	4	3	2	1	0	75.0%
Demaryius Thomas	Den	75.0%	WR	4	3	2	0	0	75.0%
Wes Welker	Den	75.0%	WR	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Seahawks D/ST	Sea	75.0%	D/ST	4	3	1	0	0	75.0%
Calvin Johnson	Det	75.0%	WR	4	3	1	1	0	75.0%
DeMarco Murray	Dal	75.0%	RB	4	3	1	0	0	75.0%
Arian Foster	Hou	75.0%	RB	4	3	1	0	0	75.0%
Matt Prater	Den	75.0%	K	4	3	1	0	0	75.0%
Brandon Marshall	Chi	75.0%	WR	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Julius Thomas	Den	75.0%	TE	4	3	1	1	0	75.0%
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	75.0%	K	4	3	2	0	0	75.0%
Antonio Gates	SD	75.0%	TE	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Frank Gore	SF	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Doug Martin	TB	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Alfred Morris	Wsh	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Dan Carpenter	Buf	75.0%	K	4	3	0	1	0	75.0%
Lions D/ST	Det	75.0%	D/ST	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Darren McFadden	Oak	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Trent Richardson	Ind	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	75.0%
Dez Bryant	Dal	75.0%	WR	4	3	2	1	0	50.0%
Marlon Brown	Bal	75.0%	WR	4	3	0	1	0	25.0%
Chris Johnson	Ten	75.0%	RB	4	3	0	0	0	25.0%
Aaron Rodgers	GB	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Randall Cobb	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Ted Ginn	Car	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Jermichael Finley	GB	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
James Jones	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Torrey Smith	Bal	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	0	0	75.0%
Joique Bell	Det	50.0%	RB	4	2	2	0	0	75.0%
Pierre Garcon	Wsh	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	0	0	75.0%
Julian Edelman	NE	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	75.0%
Giovani Bernard	Cin	50.0%	RB	4	2	1	0	0	75.0%
Andre Johnson	Hou	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	75.0%
Michael Vick	Phi	50.0%	QB	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
Matt Ryan	Atl	50.0%	QB	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Alex Smith	KC	50.0%	QB	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Tony Romo	Dal	50.0%	QB	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Jake Locker	Ten	50.0%	QB	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Marshawn Lynch	Sea	50.0%	RB	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
Reggie Bush	Det	50.0%	RB	3	2	2	0	1	50.0%
Titans D/ST	Ten	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
Antonio Brown	Pit	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
DeSean Jackson	Phi	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Eddie Royal	SD	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
A.J. Green	Cin	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Anquan Boldin	SF	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Colts D/ST	Ind	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Nate Washington	Ten	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Knowshon Moreno	Den	50.0%	RB	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
Cowboys D/ST	Dal	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Darren Sproles	NO	50.0%	RB	4	2	1	0	0	50.0%
Bears D/ST	Chi	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Saints D/ST	NO	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	50.0%	WR	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Blair Walsh	Min	50.0%	K	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Nick Novak	SD	50.0%	K	4	2	1	2	0	50.0%
Reggie Wayne	Ind	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Browns D/ST	Cle	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Martellus Bennett	Chi	50.0%	TE	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Buccaneers D/ST	TB	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
David Akers	Det	50.0%	K	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Caleb Sturgis	Mia	50.0%	K	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Broncos D/ST	Den	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Garrett Hartley	NO	50.0%	K	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Brian Hartline	Mia	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Steve Johnson	Buf	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Ravens D/ST	Bal	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Robbie Gould	Chi	50.0%	K	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Matt Bryant	Atl	50.0%	K	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Dan Bailey	Dal	50.0%	K	4	2	1	2	0	50.0%
Charles Clay	Mia	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Marques Colston	NO	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Bengals D/ST	Cin	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Bills D/ST	Buf	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Jerome Simpson	Min	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw	Ind	50.0%	RB	3	2	1	0	1	50.0%
Justin Tucker	Bal	50.0%	K	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Ryan Mathews	SD	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	0	0	50.0%
Jason Witten	Dal	50.0%	TE	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Jason Snelling	Atl	50.0%	RB	4	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Lamar Miller	Mia	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
49ers D/ST	SF	50.0%	D/ST	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Coby Fleener	Ind	50.0%	TE	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Bernard Pierce	Bal	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	2	0	50.0%
Denarius Moore	Oak	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Garrett Graham	Hou	50.0%	TE	4	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Daniel Thomas	Mia	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Da'Rel Scott	NYG	50.0%	RB	4	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Mike Williams	TB	50.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	0	0.0%
Greg Olsen	Car	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	0	0	66.7%
Cam Newton	Car	33.3%	QB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Panthers D/ST	Car	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
James Starks	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Mason Crosby	GB	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Graham Gano	Car	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Steve Smith	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Brandon LaFell	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Packers D/ST	GB	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Johnathan Franklin	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Eddie Lacy	GB	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Danny Woodhead	SD	25.0%	RB	4	1	1	1	0	75.0%
Eric Decker	Den	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	1	0	50.0%
Owen Daniels	Hou	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	1	0	50.0%
Jared Cook	StL	25.0%	TE	4	1	1	2	0	50.0%
Cecil Shorts	Jac	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	50.0%
Brandon Myers	NYG	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	50.0%
Kellen Winslow	NYJ	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	50.0%
Daryl Richardson	StL	25.0%	RB	3	1	0	1	1	50.0%
Robert Griffin III	Wsh	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Sam Bradford	StL	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Tom Brady	NE	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Jay Cutler	Chi	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Russell Wilson	Sea	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
EJ Manuel	Buf	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Colin Kaepernick	SF	25.0%	QB	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Geno Smith	NYJ	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Eli Manning	NYG	25.0%	QB	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Tony Gonzalez	Atl	25.0%	TE	4	1	1	1	0	25.0%
Christian Ponder	Min	25.0%	QB	3	1	0	1	1	25.0%
Steven Hauschka	Sea	25.0%	K	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Greg Jennings	Min	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Brian Hoyer	Cle	25.0%	QB	2	1	0	0	2	25.0%
Nick Folk	NYJ	25.0%	K	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Jerricho Cotchery	Pit	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Adam Vinatieri	Ind	25.0%	K	4	1	1	1	0	25.0%
Texans D/ST	Hou	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Robert Woods	Buf	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Alshon Jeffery	Chi	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Rob Bironas	Ten	25.0%	K	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Ryan Succop	KC	25.0%	K	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Redskins D/ST	Wsh	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
DeAndre Hopkins	Hou	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Alex Henery	Phi	25.0%	K	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Vernon Davis	SF	25.0%	TE	3	1	0	1	1	25.0%
Jay Feely	Ari	25.0%	K	4	1	1	1	0	25.0%
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Josh Gordon	Cle	25.0%	WR	2	1	1	0	2	25.0%
Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Patriots D/ST	NE	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Cardinals D/ST	Ari	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Vikings D/ST	Min	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	1	1	0	25.0%
Shaun Suisham	Pit	25.0%	K	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Vincent Jackson	TB	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Austin Pettis	StL	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Doug Baldwin	Sea	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Donnie Avery	KC	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Stephen Hill	NYJ	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Greg Zuerlein	StL	25.0%	K	4	1	1	2	0	25.0%
Jets D/ST	NYJ	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Sidney Rice	Sea	25.0%	WR	4	1	1	3	0	25.0%
Rashard Mendenhall	Ari	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Kendall Wright	Ten	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Tavon Austin	StL	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Raiders D/ST	Oak	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Nate Burleson	Det	25.0%	WR	3	1	0	1	1	25.0%
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Mike Wallace	Mia	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Santana Moss	Wsh	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Ronnie Hillman	Den	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	25.0%	K	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
C.J. Spiller	Buf	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Andre Ellington	Ari	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
LeGarrette Blount	NE	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Scott Chandler	Buf	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Ben Tate	Hou	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	0	0	25.0%
Chris Givens	StL	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Le'Veon Bell	Pit	25.0%	RB	1	1	0	0	3	25.0%
Dolphins D/ST	Mia	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Zach Miller	Sea	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Josh Brown	NYG	25.0%	K	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Chris Ogbonnaya	Cle	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	25.0%
Sean McGrath	KC	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Roy Helu	Wsh	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Marcel Reece	Oak	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Golden Tate	Sea	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Steven Jackson	Atl	25.0%	RB	2	1	0	0	2	25.0%
Jason Avant	Phi	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Phil Dawson	SF	25.0%	K	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Shane Vereen	NE	25.0%	RB	1	1	1	0	3	25.0%
Dexter McCluster	KC	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Dexter McCluster	KC	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Rashad Jennings	Oak	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Malcom Floyd	SD	25.0%	WR	2	1	0	1	2	25.0%
Ray Rice	Bal	25.0%	RB	3	1	0	2	1	25.0%
Kyle Rudolph	Min	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Brandon Bolden	NE	25.0%	RB	2	1	0	1	2	25.0%
Danny Amendola	NE	25.0%	WR	1	1	0	0	3	25.0%
Chris Polk	Phi	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Vonta Leach	Bal	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Gavin Escobar	Dal	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Luke Willson	Sea	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	25.0%
Eagles D/ST	Phi	25.0%	D/ST	4	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Kendall Hunter	SF	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Aaron Dobson	NE	25.0%	WR	3	1	0	1	1	0.0%
Brent Celek	Phi	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Mychal Rivera	Oak	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Justin Hunter	Ten	25.0%	WR	3	1	0	1	1	0.0%
Rueben Randle	NYG	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Jackie Battle	Ten	25.0%	RB	4	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Joseph Fauria	Det	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Marvin Jones	Cin	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Clay Harbor	Jac	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Jermaine Kearse	Sea	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Jeff Cumberland	NYJ	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Jeff Maehl	Phi	25.0%	WR	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Robert Meachem	NO	25.0%	WR	3	1	0	2	1	0.0%
Levine Toilolo	Atl	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Dion Sims	Mia	25.0%	TE	4	1	0	3	0	0.0%
Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	0.0%	RB	4	0	0	1	0	50.0%
Pierre Thomas	NO	0.0%	RB	4	0	0	0	0	50.0%
Delanie Walker	Ten	0.0%	TE	4	0	0	0	0	25.0%
Dallas Clark	Bal	0.0%	TE	4	0	0	2	0	25.0%
Jordan Reed	Wsh	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	1	1	25.0%
Andre Roberts	Ari	0.0%	WR	4	0	0	3	0	25.0%
Miles Austin	Dal	0.0%	WR	3	0	0	2	1	25.0%
Heath Miller	Pit	0.0%	TE	2	0	0	1	2	25.0%
Logan Paulsen	Wsh	0.0%	TE	4	0	0	3	0	25.0%
Isaiah Pead	StL	0.0%	RB	2	0	0	1	2	25.0%
Falcons D/ST	Atl	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Rams D/ST	StL	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Jaguars D/ST	Jac	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Steelers D/ST	Pit	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Giants D/ST	NYG	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Chargers D/ST	SD	0.0%	D/ST	4	0	0	3	0	0.0%

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]Favorable fantasy matchups ahead[/h][h=3]Mathews, Bowe and others have soft schedules ahead of them[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

A number of the big fantasy football point performances this past week occurred in part because of highly favorable matchups. Torrey Smith racked up 22 points (ESPN standard scoring) against a very banged-up Buffalo Bills secondary; Alex Smith notched 22 points versus a suspect New York Giants secondary; and Victor Cruz beat cornerback Dunta Robinson (who was filling in for injured Brandon Flowers) for a 67-yard touchdown pass en route to a 22-point game.
The injury factor in each of those matchups was key. Normally it isn't until later in a season that injuries start having a huge matchup implications. But, as John Clayton recently noted, this season already has been significantly affected, with many starting-caliber players on IR before Sunday's games. Then we saw players such as Vince Wilfork, Dwight Freeney and Jake Locker get hit with major injuries, too.
Combine the injuries with the typical slate of starting defenders who are deemed favorable matchups (a factor designated via a green rating for those defenders) and it means there should be many more upside opportunities for fantasy owners to put into their lineups.
This week's Fantasy Foresight will take a look at some players who are in the best shape -- in terms of green-rated matchups -- over the next four weeks.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">

</center>[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

Cutler

</center>
Cutler isn't putting up dominant numbers, but his tally of 60 fantasy points this season places him only one point behind Tom Brady. The Bears' Week 5 matchup against the Saints looks somewhat unfavorable, but that is followed up by favorable Week 6 and 7 matchups against the Giants and theWashington Redskins, respectively. This makes him a justifiable high-end waiver selection for owners needing quarterback depth. If he makes it through waivers unclaimed (something that is possible, given that he is available in 29.9 percent of ESPN leagues), owners in those leagues should put him on their roster as soon as he becomes available.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">

</center>[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

Mathews

</center>
Mathews has been a disappointment this season, but it hasn't been thanks to a lack of carries, as his 64 rush attempts rank tied for 12th among running backs. Getting that workload has allowed Mathews to post double-digit fantasy points in two of his four starts. It also should lead to strong double-digit point opportunities twice in the next three weeks when the Chargers face the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams that have allowed 19 or more fantasy points to running backs in five of their eight combined games.
Any running back, Denver Broncos

The running back-by-committee situation in Denver once again is making fantasy owners pull out their hair. Start 'em or sit 'em? Unfortunately, the workload division among those backs might not be resolved this season. However, fortunately for Denver running back owners, the Broncos are slated to face very weak Jaguars and Redskins run defenses in Weeks 6 and 8. This combination could make the Broncos' backs buy-low candidates in leagues with owners who can't deal with the workload uncertainty.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">

</center>[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

Jeffrey

</center>
Jeffery finally paid back fantasy owners who stuck through his terrible first three weeks (14 total points) with a 20-point game against Detroit in Week 4. Those owners might be tempted to sell high after such a performance, but Jeffery has Jabari Greer, Corey Webster and DeAngelo Hall on his cornerback schedule the next three weeks. Those three are listed with green ratings (although Greer is on the precipice of being upgraded to a yellow rating), so fantasy owners thinking of selling high should do so only if they are receiving value commensurate with three weeks of potentially strong point totals.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Bowe

</center>
Bowe's 11 points against the Giants in Week 4 somewhat ameliorated the pain of fantasy owners dealing with Bowe's role in a conservative Chiefs offense. Still, Bowe's failure to consistently post WR1 totals is disappointing. He might never reach that level on a week-to-week basis this season, but matchups against Oakland cornerback Mike Jenkins (whom Denver targeted with great success) and Tennessee Titans cornerback Jason McCourty in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively, should give Bowe a very good chance of posting high-end WR2/low-end WR1 point levels the next two weeks.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">

</center>[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Witten

</center>
Witten gave fantasy owners many headaches last season during his early-season struggles, and his 11 points over the past three weeks this season has to be bringing back that pain.
The good news is there is a dose of fantasy matchup aspirin on the way in Weeks 5-7 in the form of Duke Ihenacho, Brandon Meriweather and Nate Allen, respectively. Ihenacho and Allen have had issues in coverage this season (Allen's Week 2 performance against San Diego was positively abysmal); Meriweather hasn't been as bad in terms of coverage, but Washington has given up a touchdown to tight ends in all four of its games. Look for Witten to replicate last season and follow up his slow start with a much stronger stretch run.
Brandon Myers, New York Giants

Myers

</center>
The matchup against a very tough Chiefs defense led to Myers being held to zero receptions for the first time since the 2011 season. This might lead to a significant drop in his 91.5 percent ownership rate, but owners might want to think twice before making that move. In Weeks 5 and 7, Myers is due to face the aforementioned Nate Allen in coverage, and he has a Week 7 matchup against a Vikings secondary that has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Minnesota's situation could get even worse if Jamarca Sanford, their starting strong safety, misses more time with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Week 4 game against Pittsburgh.
</offer>

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]A look at productivity off bye weeks[/h][h=3]Location actually does matter at some positions, like QB and D/ST[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com
Rest has a varying impact upon people, and that's no less true in fantasy football.
The bye weeks are upon us, and with them, the age-old question of whether a bye week's rest rejuvenates a football player. At casual glance, NFL teams benefit from a week off: In the past five seasons combined (2008-12), teams are 85-72-3 (.541 winning percentage) in their first games following their bye week, the group never posting a losing record in any of those individual years.
Digging deeper, individual players also benefited from the week's rest during those past five seasons: Fantasy production -- by measure of average points per game -- was 4.3 percent greater among all players in the week following the bye compared to the other 15 weeks of the season. Or, for another perspective, players averaged 0.5 more points in the game following the bye compared to in the other 15 weeks.
But there's an odd twist to this analysis: It's actually not NFL players as a whole who benefit from a week's rest. It's specific positions that gain the advantage, and where they play in that first week back matters.
Quarterbacks experienced the largest increase in production in games following the bye, particularly in home games. From 2008 to 2012, the position as a whole enjoyed an 8.0 percent boost in the week following the bye, and 17.9 percent in home games (that percentage comparing home games to other home games). And if those numbers don't strike you, this might: That's a 1.09 fantasy points per game increase for quarterbacks overall, and a whopping 2.51 per game boost in home games.

Suddenly, Drew Brees' Week 8 game against theBuffalo Bills looks all the more attractive. It should've anyway; Brees has experienced arguably the greatest benefit from a bye week's rest of anyone in the league, historically speaking.
Brees has managed his best single-game fantasy point total of the year in the first week coming off the bye in each of the past three seasons, and has scored no fewer than 27 fantasy points the week after the bye in any of the past four years. In his career, he has averaged 20.3 fantasy points in the week after the bye; he has averaged 16.3 points per game the remainder of the year.
Running backs and wide receivers, meanwhile, also enjoy a boost, though not to the extent that quarterbacks do. Running backs enjoyed a 3.2 percent increase and wide receivers 6.2 percent, and it was the wide receivers who saw that boost occur regardless of whether the game was at home or on the road.
When looking to running backs, consider age and workload in players fresh off the bye. Steven Jacksonwas an excellent example of a player helped by the bye week; in three of the past four seasons he tallied his highest fantasy point total of the year in the week following the bye. That might not be a valuable lesson for Jackson himself, considering he's no guarantee to be ready for the Atlanta Falcons' Week 6 game, their first after the bye, but it could be supporting evidence for older players such as Frank Gore(Week 8 bye) or Darren Sproles (Week 7 bye), or for players likely to rank among the leaders in rushing attempts at the time of their bye weeks, like Marshawn Lynch or LeSean McCoy (both have Week 12 byes).
Finally, defense/special teams have an unexpected advantage: They enjoyed no boost in their first weeks following the bye when playing at home, but in their road games, they were far more competent fantasy scorers. Strangely, defense/special teams units scored 14.6 percent more fantasy points when playing a road game following the bye week than they did in any other road game all season.
That's a substantial advantage, and a strategic nugget to stash away, being that fantasy defense/special teams overall averaged more than a point per game (1.07, to be exact) at home compared to on the road from 2008-12. Road games are generally bad news for defenses; but they are not nearly as scary coming off a week's rest.
Listed below are the 32 NFL teams' bye weeks, as well as their first matchups following the bye. Keep that defense/special teams note in mind if you're the owner of the Chicago Bears(@GB, following Week 8 bye), Denver Broncos (@SD, following Week 9 bye), Cleveland Browns (@Cin, following Week 10 bye), New England Patriots (@Car, following Week 10 bye) or Cincinnati Bengals (@SD, following Week 12 bye) squads. These matchups -- that Bears at Green Bay Packers one, especially -- should scare you a little bit less with this knowledge.

Team	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Bye</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Site</center>	Opp.	Team	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Bye</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Site</center>	Opp.
Carolina Panthers	4	Road	@Ari	Arizona Cardinals	9	Home	Hou
Green Bay Packers	4	Home	Det	Denver Broncos	9	Road	@SD
Minnesota Vikings	5	Home	Car	Detroit Lions	9	Road	@Chi
Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Road	@NYJ	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	Road	@Ten
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	Home	Phi	New York Giants	9	Home	Oak
Washington Redskins	5	Road	@Dal	San Francisco 49ers	9	Home	Car
Atlanta Falcons	6	Home	TB	Cleveland Browns	10	Road	@Cin
Miami Dolphins	6	Home	Buf	Kansas City Chiefs	10	Road	@Den
New Orleans Saints	7	Home	Buf	New England Patriots	10	Road	@Car
Oakland Raiders	7	Home	Pit	New York Jets	10	Road	@Buf
Baltimore Ravens	8	Road	@Cle	Dallas Cowboys	11	Road	@NYG
Chicago Bears	8	Road	@GB	St. Louis Rams	11	Home	Chi
Houston Texans	8	Home	Ind	Buffalo Bills	12	Home	Atl
Indianapolis Colts	8	Road	@Hou	Cincinnati Bengals	12	Road	@SD
San Diego Chargers	8	Road	@Wsh	Philadelphia Eagles	12	Home	Ari
Tennessee Titans	8	Road	@StL	Seattle Seahawks	12	Home	NO

The full analysis of each position, and the league as a whole, can be seen in the chart below. Keep in mind that, just like fantasy scoring in general, these numbers vary by year. There's no guarantee that every quarterback, for instance, will enjoy a 17.8 percent boost to his fantasy points per game average in a home game following the bye; this is merely the league average and a player might have been as apt to score fewer points in that game than in the rest of the year as to score twice his average.
Consider these numbers as you evaluate matchups and formulate weekly odds of success, but the upshot is that there is something to fresh-off-the-bye strategy … if you target players from the correct positions.

Split	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">QB</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">RB</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">WR</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">TE</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">K</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">D/ST</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">All positions</center>
Overall	8.0%	3.2%	6.2%	-2.0%	-0.3%	4.8%	4.3%
Home	17.8%	10.9%	9.3%	-2.3%	-0.2%	-3.3%	8.0%
Road	-3.0%	-5.7%	2.9%	-1.8%	-0.5%	14.6%	0.0%

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]Four Downs: Bush flourishing in Detroit

[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Give [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Detroit Lions[/FONT] running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Reggie Bush[/FONT] credit. For most of his five seasons with the[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New Orleans Saints[/FONT], the Heisman Trophy winner out of USC was a huge disappointment, struggling to stay healthy and failing to produce the statistics expected of him. In the past two seasons with the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Miami Dolphins[/FONT], however, Bush turned the corner and became a productive player with little around him; he stayed on the field and finished each campaign close to top-10 fantasy running back status. Well, Bush is a different player in a different offense these days, and his performance Sunday should push him -- finally -- into that pantheon of top-10 running backs.

Bush missed Week 3 with a left knee ailment and admitted he was concerned about how it would feel, reminding many fantasy owners about his perceived lack of durability. Then again, Bush missed just one game in his two seasons with Miami. This weekend there were 15 running backs active in more leagues than Bush, including strugglers such as [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ray Rice[/FONT] -- not exactly healthy himself -- and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Stevan Ridley[/FONT]. So how do those owners who sat Bush in Sunday's 40-32 win over the defensive-minded [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chicago Bears[/FONT] feel now after Bush rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and added another 34 yards receiving? This is an elite player on an elite offense performing at an elite level. Through most of four NFL weeks (entering the Sunday night Patriots-Falcons game), a running back has scored 22 or more standard fantasy points only 11 times; Bush and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Adrian Peterson[/FONT] have each achieved this twice. That's telling.

On Sunday, Bush did most of his damage between the tackles, generating 121 of his rushing yards on 13 carries. He's averaging 5.7 yards per attempt this season in such situations, which is quite a change from his Saints and Dolphins days, when the book on Bush was to get him out in open space and let him make something happen. Bush averaged 4.5 yards per rush -- still effective, mind you -- on attempts between the tackles prior to this season, but certainly wasn't utilized as often in those situations. The Lions figured to keep Bush busy on screen passes and have bigger, sturdier options like[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Joique Bell[/FONT] and the forgotten [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mikel Leshoure[/FONT] do the dirty work, but the popular Bell -- he was active in 42.5 percent of ESPN leagues -- saw just half the touches Bush did Sunday.

Bush certainly appears to be up to the task of handling this workload, and his knee looked just fine when he exploded for a 37-yard touchdown jaunt late in the first half. While aiming to run down the clock in the fourth quarter, Bush was the one taking handoffs, leading to the team's final points. This new version of Bush, still agile and quick, is able to thrive in the middle of the field with the big boys, and let's not dismiss the presence of the awesome[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Calvin Johnson[/FONT] as aiding in the big picture. Bush is back on pace for more than 1,000 rushing yards despite performing in basically just two full games. The upside, should he stay healthy, is for far more than that, and it's time to move him past [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]C.J. Spiller[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Alfred Morris[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Trent Richardson[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chris Johnson[/FONT] into the top 10 and make him a weekly play.

Second down: One could argue that Bush deserves a higher ranking than Baltimore Ravensstar Ray Rice as well, and it's certainly a worthy debate. The Ravens seemed oddly disinterested in the running game Sunday against a Buffalo Bills defense that had been shredded by Bilal Powell last week, giving Rice and Bernard Pierce a combined nine carries, which they turned into a sad 24 yards. Quarterback Joe Flacco, meanwhile, has now eclipsed 50 pass attempts in two of four games (and thrown seven interceptions in those losses). Over one stretch Sunday, the Ravens threw the football on 30 consecutive plays. Flacco is a marginal fantasy play to begin with, but Rice remains regarded as a must-start option when active, despite failing to reach 40 rushing yards in a game. Whether it's his hip injury or Baltimore's run-blocking woes, it's fair to wonder if those days are over. Suddenly, buying low on Rice doesn't seem so wise.

Third down: A positive running back story from Sunday came all the way from London, England, as Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell finally suited up and responded with 84 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is exactly what fantasy owners need; we're desperate for running back depth. Bell, perhaps still battling a foot injury, played the role of feature back effectively, barely sharing with the likes of Felix Jones and Jonathan Dwyer. The Michigan State product made a solid cut to score on his 8-yard touchdown, then used his impressive size and balance to break through the line on a 1-yarder. Bell will get to rest this coming week with the Steelers' bye, but as others fall, he'll likely be regarded as a top-20 running back by mid-October.

Fourth down: There were eight instances in which a wide receiver scored 23 or more fantasy points in the first two weeks of the season, but since then it has happened just once -- the Steelers' Antonio Brown in Week 3. It did not happen Sunday. Can fantasy owners derive meaning from this? Well, wide receiver play is largely inconsistent to begin with, and fantasy owners should stick with their stars. While most New York Giants options continue to disappoint, wide receiver Victor Cruz caught 164 yards worth of passes and scored his fourth touchdown. Fantasy owners are obviously souring -- and for good reason -- on the likes of Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton and Flacco, but Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Torrey Smith remain reliable options, as proven Sunday. Be patient with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Vincent Jackson; he caught only two passes from raw rookie Mike Glennon on Sunday, but he did see 11 targets. As Glennon improves, Jackson will remain a coveted fantasy option, just like the aforementioned wide receivers.

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy football injury notebook - Week 5[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Stephania Bell[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Here's a look at some key injuries in the fantasy football world that we'll be following ahead of Week 5 of the NFL season.

C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (knee), RBs, Buffalo Bills: Spiller came into the Week 4 contest fresh off a quad injury but practiced daily leading up to the game, hinting at a swift recovery. By the second half of Sunday’s game, however, Spiller had another ailment. With the Bills’ next contest slated for Thursday, just four days later, Spiller is now dealing with an ankle injury and sat out practice Monday.

Spiller has indicated that he hopes to play in Week 5, not an unreasonable possibility given that he returned to Sunday’s game after the injury. However, the short turnaround doesn't allow much recovery time, and even Spiller said he’d like to get to 80-85 percent to be well enough to play. It begs the question as to just how much fantasy owners can expect from what will certainly be a less-than-fully-healthy Spiller, if he takes the field. “The last two games I haven’t even completed a half,” Spiller noted, according to the Bills’ official website.

As for Jackson, he sustained a sprain of the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his right knee. This is not a first for Jackson, who suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain in the same knee last December and ended up missing the Bills’ final three games. "I sprained my MCL again, but it's not as significant [as in the past]," Jackson said. He did practice on a limited basis Monday and expects to be ready to go by Thursday night. Both running backs will enter Thursday’s game at less than 100 percent and on short rest, not an ideal scenario.

Darren McFadden (hamstring) and Marcel Reece (knee), RBs, Oakland Raiders: Another team, another tandem of running backs impacted by injury. McFadden injured his hamstring in the first half of Sunday’s game and the sight of him in street clothes in the second half made it clear he would not return. Reece injured his knee in the same game, but a subsequent MRI indicated his is a non-surgical situation. Coach Dennis Allen has not given any hints as to whether he expects either or both backs to be available this week, saying it’s “too early to speculate.” That won’t stop fantasy owners from speculating about the possible scenarios they’ll have to contend with if both RBs sit out, which includes the prospect of [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Rashad Jennings[/FONT] taking the lead.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins (ribs): Morris gingerly exited the field Sunday and looked to be in a fair amount of discomfort on the sideline. The injury was reported as a rib contusion and Morris did not return. X-rays were reportedly negative but even the absence of a fracture does not necessarily diminish the pain associated with a bruising shot to the ribs. Morris admitted to being “[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]a little tender[/FONT],” and perhaps the greatest point in his favor is that the Redskins have a bye in Week 5. Given his level of discomfort, he very well could have been forced to sit this week out. Expect little in the way of updates on Morris over the next seven days, as the primary focus for him is likely to be rest. Look for news once pregame practices and injury reports resume for the Redskins in advance of Week 6.

Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets (hamstring): Holmes has been a little slow to get started this season in his return from Lisfranc surgery, and it’s going to get even slower. Holmes injured his hamstring in Sunday’s game and it looks as if it’s going to sideline him for an extended period. ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini reports the Jets will sign veteran wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]David Nelson[/FONT] in anticipation of Holmes [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]missing extended time[/FONT].

HacheMan · Oct 2, 2013

[h=1]Ranks reaction: Assessing the Rams RBs[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
The annoying [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]St. Louis Rams[/FONT] running back situation took another odd twist Wednesday morning when assumed starter [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Daryl Richardson[/FONT] announced on Twitter that he was not going to be starting in Week 5.

OK, so who is starting for the Rams' tasty matchup against the winless [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Jacksonville Jaguars[/FONT]? Well, Richardson didn't supply that critical piece of information, but certainly [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Isaiah Pead[/FONT] figures to be in the equation, or perhaps [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Benny Cunningham[/FONT]. Pead did not play in Week 4, and it apparently wasn't due to injury.

Rams coach Jeff Fisher told reporters that Pead was a surprise inactive for the Week 4 game -- it was on Thursday, and it went poorly for the Rams against the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Francisco 49ers[/FONT] -- so rookie wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tavon Austin[/FONT] could get more snaps at running back. Huh? Austin, a top-10 NFL draft pick who ended up getting nary a rushing attempt, has enough problems learning to play wide receiver in the NFL. I applaud the sentiment to get the quick playmaker more touches, perhaps in the way the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Minnesota Vikings[/FONT] achieved with [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Percy Harvin[/FONT] -- um, remember him? -- a year ago, but so far, Austin has just four rushes in four games for 10 yards, and his 23 fantasy points with standard wide receiver numbers [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]ranks him after 49 others[/FONT] at his spot, including ignored teammate [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Austin Pettis[/FONT]. I have little doubt Austin's future is bright, but even with the Jaguars up next, he ended up ranked 40th by our staff for Week 5.

Pead has intriguing upside, I suppose, especially in this matchup, but there's no way I want to rely on him when Richardson, who I really liked a month ago, managed to average just 2.7 yards per rush through four games. Last week, he ran for 16 yards on 12 carries. Surely a foot injury hasn't helped, but neither has the offensive line or, for the past two games, the erratic play of quarterback [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Sam Bradford[/FONT] and his all-or-nothing weapons.

The Rams are 1-3 and trending downward, and I'll be honest, I'm not choosing them in my Eliminator Pool this week. It's a trap game, even at home against a team that has scored 31 points this season. The Detroit Lions scored 30 first-half points in Week 4.

Pead has become the Rams running back I want this week, but I can't rank him near the class of utterly disappointing running backs such as David Wilson and Stevan Ridley. Those guys are incredibly in the top 25 for Week 5 -- guilty! -- because there are frighteningly few options and three top-10 running backs are on bye. Is Pead a decent add in case things work out? Sure, perhaps he explodes for 100 rushing yards Sunday and becomes a popular add next week. The Jaguars have permitted the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. You know which team has allowed the most? That's right, it's the Rams.Maurice Jones-Drew is my No. 13 running back for the week. Pead is safely outside my top 30 for Sunday because it's impossible to know whether he gets 20 touches or two, and when in doubt, that's the number to look at entering a game. Richardson will be involved as well, I presume, and Cunningham, too. So far it hasn't really mattered whom the Rams use at running back, and it might not matter much this week either.

Quarterback: The staff seldom disagrees about who the top-10 passers are. Indy'sAndrew Luck is a clear downgrade this week against the Seattle Seahawks. We all thinkTerrelle Pryor is a darn good option, even though he's listed as questionable and his game starts minutes before midnight ET Sunday. That start time is just ridiculous. Make sure Pryor is going to be active before you pass on your early Sunday choices, even Eli Manning orMatt Schaub.

Running back: Here it gets trickier, starting with the Buffalo Bills situation Thursday. I did not rank C.J. Spiller. I don't know for sure if he plays or not, but if he does, he wouldn't make my top 15. I expect Fred Jackson to play, and he is top-20. Point is, if Spiller does play, he's not an awesome fantasy start. And I don't expect much fromTashard Choice, even if he gets a lot of carries. The Browns are fifth toughest to accrue running back fantasy points against. … Knowshon Moreno is top-10, though. What more proof do we need? Rookie Montee Ball gets garbage-time carries, and that's it. Expecting those carries each week is risky. … How does David Wilson earn a No. 21 rank? Two reasons: One, the Eagles can't defend. The Giants did cut Da'Rel Scott, which should garner Wilson more touches. And two, find me 21 better running back plays this week. Go ahead. They don't exist. Wilson looked reasonable in Week 4 and is a reasonable RB2 this week. … Good luck relying on Darren McFadden. I doubt he plays. He rarely has been called a quick healer in the past. But you can't take the risk with the game starting so late. And before you get excited about Rashad Jennings, remember that, ahem, he's Rashad Jennings.

Wide receiver: Hakeem Nicks fans seem awfully excited about Sunday's matchup with Philly, but Nicks really hasn't done much lately. Yes, it's an enticing matchup, but it's tough to view him as a top-20 receiver. … Hey, Justin Blackmon is starting this week! Hey, he's still not a top-30 option! … Roddy White plays every week, but now he's ranked worse thanJeremy Kerley, Nate Washington and Blackmon. How embarrassing. This isn't the matchup to get him going. … Nearly half my top 10 receivers this week are Broncos and Packers. That Lions-Packers game should be a blast. Just don't expect much from Ryan Broyles after he burned many of you in Week 4. I didn't even rank him. … It's not looking likely that Rob Gronkowski plays this week, but Danny Amendola could. If you're an Amendola owner, don't overrate him. He is barely top 20 but is over Julian Edelman. I don't think rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is hurt much by injured teammates returning, though. They're not deep threats like he is.

HacheMan · Oct 2, 2013

[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Le'Veon Bell, Alshon Jeffery among players on the rise following Week 4[/h]
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus
With a quarter of the 2013 NFL season in the books, we're beginning to get a very good idea of which players will pace the league in touchdowns at season's end. To achieve this, we'll be taking our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD).
If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receivingoTD. The oTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
Four weeks in, oTD tells us to buy on Le'Veon Bell and Alshon Jeffery.
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[h=3]Rushing[/h][h=4]Rushing oTD leaders after Week 4[/h]

Rk	Rusher	Att	TD	2013oTD	Wk 4oTD
1	Arian Foster	76	1	2.6	0.4
2	Jamaal Charles	70	2	2.5	0.2
3	Marshawn Lynch	79	3	2.5	0.5
4	DeMarco Murray	72	1	2.5	0.1
5	Adrian Peterson	92	5	2.3	0.3
6	Darren McFadden	51	2	2.1	0.0
7	Bernard Pierce	56	2	2.0	0.0
8	Ahmad Bradshaw	41	2	1.9	0.0
9	Trent Richardson	64	2	1.9	0.8
10	Matt Forte	69	3	1.9	0.1
11	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	52	2	1.9	0.2
12	Maurice Jones-Drew	57	1	1.8	0.4
13	Michael Bush	16	1	1.7	0.0
14	Jackie Battle	29	1	1.5	0.7
15	Le'Veon Bell	16	2	1.5	1.5
16	Joique Bell	41	3	1.5	0.2
17	Frank Gore	61	2	1.4	0.2
18	Chris Johnson	84	0	1.4	0.4
19	Brandon Jacobs	11	1	1.4	0.0
20	Daniel Thomas	25	2	1.3	0.5
21	Mark Ingram	17	0	1.3	0.0
22	Ronnie Brown	14	1	1.2	0.0
23	Reggie Bush	48	1	1.2	0.2
24	Rashard Mendenhall	52	1	1.1	0.3
25	Jacquizz Rodgers	38	0	1.1	0.1
26	LeSean McCoy	78	2	1.0	0.1
27	Rashad Jennings	21	0	1.0	0.1
28	Pierre Thomas	29	0	1.0	0.0
29	Stevan Ridley	47	0	1.0	0.6
30	Anthony Dixon	5	1	0.9	0.9
31	Fred Jackson	48	2	0.9	0.2
32	James Starks	34	1	0.9	0.0
33	Ray Rice	30	1	0.9	0.1
34	Knowshon Moreno	46	3	0.9	0.5
35	Ronnie Hillman	25	1	0.9	0.2
36	Giovani Bernard	32	2	0.8	0.2
37	Mike Tolbert	19	1	0.8	0.0
38	Doug Martin	100	1	0.8	0.3
39	C.J. Spiller	66	0	0.8	0.3
40	David Wilson	38	0	0.8	0.0

Out for the first three weeks because of injury, Bell (1.5) stepped right in as the Steelers' feature back in Week 4. The rookie carried the ball 16 times and already has jumped to No. 15 in rushing oTD this season. Bell handled five carries inside Minnesota's 5-yard line, including a pair from 1 yard out. He scored twice and is already back on the RB2 radar.
Following their trade of Trent Richardson to Indianapolis, the Cleveland Browns signed veteran Willis McGahee (0.7) as a replacement. McGahee played sparingly in his Week 3 debut, but was handed the ball 15 times in Week 4. McGahee handled four carries in the red zone, including one attempt from Cincinnati's 1-yard line, and was in the top five in rushing oTD this past week. He has yet to score on 23 carries this season, but he is clearly Cleveland's primary goal-line back.
Speaking of Richardson (1.9), only five backs have added more to their oTD since he made his Colts debut in Week 3. Powered by four carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line over the past two weeks, Richardson now ranks ninth in rushing oTD this season. He has converted both of his tries from the opponent's 1-yard line this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew (1.8) has been a major fantasy disappointment thus far, but there is some good news: The Jaguars' feature back sits at No. 12 in rushing oTD. Jones-Drew has carried the ball within 3 yards of the end zone four times this season, converting once. Rushing oTD tells us to expect five or six scores from Jones-Drew the rest of the way.
No player with 35-plus carries has a lower rushing oTD than Ryan Mathews (0.5) this season. San Diego's early-down back has handled only one carry inside the opponent's 10-yard line (it was from 9 yards out). Digging a bit deeper, only four of Mathews' 64 carries have come in the red zone. Ronnie Brown (1.2) has handled both of San Diego's carries from the opponent's 1-yard line this year.
Four weeks into the season, we're also seeing some trends on the defensive side of rushing oTD. The Lions' defense (1.4) has already allowed five rushing touchdowns. That's a 3.6 difference from what was expected this season -- an NFL high. Detroit allowed a touchdown on the only attempt it faced from the 1-yard line. Additionally, Lions opponents have scores from 4, 30, 53 and 78 yards out.
On the flip side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.4) have yet to allow a rushing touchdown despite possessing the league's 13th-highest rushing oTD against. Opposing backs have failed on five tries inside the 10-yard line, three of which came within 2 yards of the end zone.
[h=3]Receiving[/h]Note: Remember that receiving oTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to properly weight throws into the end zone.
[h=4]Receiving oTD leaders after Week 4[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	TD	2013oTD	Wk 4oTD
1	Calvin Johnson	39	4	4.1	1.2
2	Martellus Bennett	30	3	3.5	0.8
3	Kenbrell Thompkins	38	3	3.5	1.2
4	A.J. Green	48	3	3.3	0.8
5	Wes Welker	36	6	3.2	0.7
6	Tony Gonzalez	32	3	2.9	1.2
7	Alshon Jeffery	31	1	2.7	1.7
8	Jason Witten	33	2	2.6	0.8
9	Jimmy Graham	41	6	2.6	0.5
10	Pierre Garcon	41	2	2.5	0.7
11	Michael Floyd	29	0	2.5	0.8
12	Larry Fitzgerald	34	3	2.2	0.5
13	Coby Fleener	17	2	2.2	1.0
14	DeSean Jackson	34	2	2.2	0.8
15	Mike Williams	28	2	2.1	0.4
16	Steve Johnson	33	2	2.1	0.4
17	Reggie Wayne	32	2	2.1	0.8
18	Denarius Moore	24	2	2.1	0.0
19	Dez Bryant	35	4	2.0	0.5
20	Aaron Dobson	24	1	2.0	0.4
21	Marlon Brown	23	3	2.0	0.8
22	Vernon Davis	18	3	2.0	0.4
23	Jordan Cameron	37	4	2.0	0.6
24	T.Y. Hilton	29	0	1.9	0.6
25	Julian Edelman	42	2	1.9	0.1
26	Victor Cruz	41	4	1.9	0.1
27	Brandon Marshall	41	2	1.9	0.5
28	Antonio Brown	39	2	1.9	0.4
29	Austin Pettis	29	2	1.9	0.3
30	Torrey Smith	40	1	1.9	1.0
31	Eddie Royal	19	5	1.8	0.0
32	Demaryius Thomas	37	4	1.8	0.5
33	Cecil Shorts	50	0	1.7	0.4
34	Robert Woods	25	2	1.7	0.8
35	DeAndre Hopkins	29	1	1.7	0.1
36	Delanie Walker	18	2	1.6	0.4
37	Owen Daniels	30	3	1.6	0.3
38	Sidney Rice	20	2	1.6	0.4
39	Brandon Myers	24	1	1.6	0.0
40	Jordy Nelson	24	3	1.6	0.0

No player added more to his receiving oTD this week than Jeffery (2.7). The second-year wideout was targeted four times within 2 yards of the end zone, one of which was converted into a touchdown. Jeffery now has five end zone targets this season, three of them coming this past Sunday. On the year, Jeffery ranks seventh overall in receiving oTD and is on pace to score nine touchdowns. He's a top-35 fantasy option at the wide receiver position.
Peyton Manning continues to make use of Wes Welker (3.2) near the end zone. No player with at least five end zone targets has a higher conversion rate than Welker's 80 percent. In addition to the five end zone targets, Welker has been within 6 yards of the end zone six times. Denver's slot man isn't going to sustain his current touchdown rate (he's on pace for 24 scores), but receiving oTD tells us that 9-10 scores over the team's final 12 games is very realistic.
Coby Fleener (2.2) holds the honor for highest receiving oTD among all players with fewer than 20 targets. Of his 17 targets this season, three have come while he was in the end zone and another four have come inside the 10-yard line. Fleener needs more targets in order to produce TE1 numbers, but oTD tells us that touchdowns should be easy to find. Don't be surprised if he scores seven or eight times from here on out.
Kenbrell Thompkins (3.5) continues to climb the receiving oTD ranks. Now third overall in the category, Thompkins was targeted inside the end zone three more times this past week. He converted on only one, however, and is now 2-of-7 (28.5 percent) on end zone looks this season. The impending returns of Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are sure to cost Thompkins targets, but he's likely to reach double digits in touchdowns if he continues to work in two-wide reciever sets.
No wide receiver with 25-plus targets has a lower receiving oTD than Josh Gordon (0.4) this season. Although he sat out Weeks 1 and 2 because of suspension, Gordon has already racked up 26 targets. Unfortunately for his touchdown total, none have come within 12 yards of the opposing end zone. Gordon's lone touchdown was a catch-and-run from 15 yards out.
Flipping over to defensive oTD, we see standout production from the Lions (8.1). Detroit has allowed only four passing touchdowns, which is an NFL-best 4.1 lower than its receiving oTD against. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted 13 passes into the end zone against the Lions, but have converted only two. The other passing scores allowed by Detroit came after catches from 5 and 14 yards out.
On the other hand, we have the Philadelphia Eagles (6.0) and St. Louis Rams (6.0). Both teams have allowed nine scores, which is a league-worst three scores above expected. The Eagles have allowed seven scores on 15 throws to targets within 10 yards of the end zone. The Rams, meanwhile, have surrendered five scores on nine targets into their end zone.

HacheMan · Oct 2, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst Week 5 matchups[/h][h=3]Philip Rivers among the players with favorable matchups this week[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Scott Kacsmar[/FONT] | Football Outsiders

Now that the season is about a quarter of the way over, we start to understand which teams are good and which are bad. Furthermore, we have a better understanding of why some teams are good and some, such as the one in Jacksonville, are so bad.
At Football Outsiders, the key efficiency metric DVOA (explained here) stands for defense-adjusted value over average. However, for the first four weeks we were basing matchups just on VOA, as it was too early to apply opponent adjustments at any strength. Now we can do that, making the "D" a factor that is essential to studying this game.
After all, the NFL is a matchup league. What works against one opponent may not against another.
When Peyton Manning threw seven touchdowns against Baltimore in Week 1, we could only naively assume the Ravens were one of the worst pass defenses in football. But with more data the past three weeks -- Baltimore has allowed two total touchdowns (one passing) since -- we can see that the Ravens (No. 12 in defensive DVOA and No. 16 against the pass) are not that bad.
We also are quickly learning that Denver is just that good. Manning has 16 touchdown passes in four games, which is already more than 155 teams have had in a full 16-game season since 1988. As I mentioned last week, if you have Denver receivers on your fantasy team, start them every week. If you don't have them, maybe trade for one if you are in need.
Denver's big four pass-catchers are all nearly on pace for 1,000 yards: Demaryius Thomas(1,592), Eric Decker (1,360), Wes Welker (1,064) and Julius Thomas (948). When you look at the remaining schedule, it's not out of question this could be the first offense in NFL history with four 1,000-yard receivers.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 5:
<offer></offer>
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h][h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For more on the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	SD	Philip Rivers	+5
QB	OAK	Terrelle Pryor	+4
QB	NYG	Eli Manning	+4
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	+3
RB	TEN	Chris Johnson	+2
RB	OAK	Darren McFadden	+2
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	+2
RB	STL	Daryl Richardson	+2
WR	NYG	Victor Cruz	+2
RB	BAL	Bernard Pierce	+1
QB	PHI	Michael Vick	+1
QB	DAL	Tony Romo	+1
WR	SD	Eddie Royal	+1
RB	GB	Johnathan Franklin	+1
WR	JAC	Cecil Shorts	+1
WR	NYG	Hakeem Nicks	+1
RB	SD	Ryan Mathews	+1
RB	SD	Danny Woodhead	+1
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	+1
WR	PHI	DeSean Jackson	+1

Philip Rivers, (plus-5 points)
Rivers did not need to be "fixed" as some suggested this offseason. He just needed to stop imploding late in games after strong starts. This season, Rivers has been very good in almost every quarter, completing 73.9 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. It's a late start in Oakland this week because of baseball, but that's still a tasty matchup (No. 28 pass defense) no matter when they kick it off. As with Denver, when you look at the AFC schedule, it's hard not to see Rivers as a strong No. 1 quarterback option in fantasy this season.
Andrew Luck (minus-5 points)
Seattle boasts the league's No. 1 pass defense. It already has decimated Colin Kaepernick, though at least Luck will be at home. Matt Schaub had some success early, but once Seattle tightened up on his receivers, we know what he did late in the game. The Colts are trying to run the ball more, which would be smart this week even though Seattle is No. 10 in rush defense. Last season, Luck played five games against top-10 pass defenses. His fantasy point production was 9.3, 28.9, 5.1, 16.4 and 15.7. Seattle is allowing 12.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]Chris Johnson (plus-2 points)
Johnson has 84 carries this year and none have gone longer than 23 yards. The Chiefs are quickly earning a reputation for their defense, but the run defense is last in the league thanks in part to playing the Eagles. Johnson can have a quality fantasy day by breaking off one long scoring run. With Ryan Fitzpatrick in for Jake Locker at quarterback, the Titans may be wise to lean on Johnson more this week.
Daryl Richardson (plus-2 points)
The St. Louis Rams are off to their worst rushing start in team history with 189 yards and zero touchdowns. Richardson had just 16 yards on 12 carries against the 49ers. However, let's give him one more shot with the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 29 rush defense) coming to town. Need I say more?
[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For more on the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	-5
QB	CLE	Brian Hoyer	-4
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	-4
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	-4
RB	DAL	DeMarco Murray	-3
RB	NO	Darren Sproles	-2
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	-2
RB	BUF	Fred Jackson	-2
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	-1
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	-1
QB	KC	Alex Smith	-1
RB	ATL	Jacquizz Rodgers	-1
QB	SF	Colin Kaepernick	-1
RB	ATL	Jason Snelling	-1
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	-1
RB	SF	Frank Gore	-1
RB	NO	Pierre Thomas	-1
RB	DET	Joique Bell	-1
RB	MIA	Lamar Miller	-1
RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	-1
RB	ARI	Rashard Mendenhall	-1
RB	MIA	Daniel Thomas	-1
WR	CLE	Josh Gordon	-1
WR	IND	Reggie Wayne	-1

DeAngelo Williams (minus-2 points)
Carolina is coming off a bye week, but this is a tough matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals just held Doug Martin, a better runner than Williams, to 45 yards on 27 carries and Arizona's run defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA and No. 3 in yards per carry allowed. They have allowed only one rushing touchdown, while Williams has yet to find the end zone in 2013.
Fred Jackson (minus-2 points) and C.J. Spiller(minus-1 point)
This is just a reminder about the generally poor quality of Thursday night games. Buffalo is on the road, Jackson has a MCL sprain, Spiller is scoreless and the Browns are No. 6 against the run. Start both Buffalo RBs at your own risk, though with all the running back problems around the league, you may not have a better option.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]Hakeem Nicks (plus-1 point)
I can feel the frustration of Nicks owners after three catches for 33 yards in the past two games combined, but help is on the way in the form of Philadelphia's 30th-ranked pass defense. After 16 targets for Victor Cruz last week, expect Nicks to share in some of the wealth in Week 5. Hopefully Eli Manning can learn something from what big brother Peyton and others have done to the Eagles this season.
Reggie Wayne (minus-1 point)
These may not be the Peyton Manning-led Colts who always kept Wayne lined up on the left, but you can expect Richard Sherman to cover him quite a bit around the field. Wayne will not be shut down like Anquan Boldin (one catch for seven yards) was in Week 2, but as with the Luck projection, you should not expect a big day.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]Jordan Cameron (minus-1 point)
Here's the second warning for Thursday night's often sloppy brand of football. Besides, canBrian Hoyer continue to play this well for Cleveland? Even if he does, Cameron will probably still have a solid game, but his touchdown per reception rate (16.7 percent) is completely unsustainable.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]These are the elite fantasy players for Week 5 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.
[h=4]Week 5 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	+5	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	+1
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	+1	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	+1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	0	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	+1
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	0	WR	ATL	Julio Jones	0
QB	NE	Tom Brady	0	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	-1
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	+1	TE	SD	Antonio Gates	+1
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	0	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	0
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	-1	TE	ATL	Tony Gonzalez	0
WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	+1	TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	-1

While players such as Jimmy Graham and Cameron may be the future, it's a return to glory for Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates -- two future Hall of Fame tight ends. Gonzalez had a career-high 149 receiving yards last week and Gates (364 yards this season) looks like his old self again.
Tom Brady also returns to the elite club. While not the best matchup this week at Cincinnati, he has been getting better with his receivers and it won't be long until Rob Gronkowski andDanny Amendola return.

HacheMan · Oct 3, 2013

[h=1]Week 5 flex ranks: Broncos galore!

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]Welcome to October, when a fantasy team's record can often force changes, whether it's necessary or not. Plenty of time remains for your team to turn things around, but perhaps you feel a bit more pressure to make the correct pick for your flex position. Well, that's why we're here! Every Thursday we combine the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends -- oh yes, there are many valuable tight ends -- into one tidy package to help with your Week 5 decisions.

Remember to use all the good information presented to you by the ESPN Fantasy staff to augment your decisions -- not make them for you -- and if you still have questions or play in a league with a unique scoring system, try us on Twitter or in our many chats. As for my Wednesday chat wrap, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]here's the link[/FONT]. And here are the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Week 5 staff rankings[/FONT]!

<offer style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Good luck to all in Week 5 and beyond!
</offer>
1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Let's face it, the Eagles can't defend, but neither can the Giants. If only the Giants' running back was a sure thing, too!

2. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: He runs, he catches, he scores fantasy points. No Adrian Peterson this week, by the way.

3. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Legit top-10 guy now.

4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears

5. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

6. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Still concerned? Not an easy matchup this week, but neither was last week's.

7. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Well, he has outscored the next guy, so it's not a slight to rank him better.

8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

9. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: He appears to be safe and reliable again.

10. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: Looks more dominant than ever, with no end in sight.

11. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

12. Victor Cruz, WR, Eagles: Should torch the Philly D, and Eli's interceptions don't count on Cruz's ledger.

13. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos

14. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: If I were to re-draft today, I'd definitely take him in the top 20.

15. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: No injuries so far. There is some concern the Cowboys will get down early this week and abandon the run, but if you have him, you probably don't have many RB choices.

16. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

17. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: The Jets D has been kind to opposing wide receivers.

18. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Andy Dalton isn't holding him back too much. Just a little.

19. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: It's understandable if you're concerned about his touches. I know I am.

20. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

21. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: What, you expected a 2,000-yard season? He'll get his 1,100 yards, and you'll have to accept it.

22. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: A tad overrated, it seems. Gets his three yards per carry, and we have to accept it. He'll score touchdowns, though.

23. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

24. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns

25. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Has torched the Giants in the past. Should do fine here.

26. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: What choice do we have but to rank him this well? It's actually a sweet matchup. The Rams are the easiest team to run on for fantasy purposes.

27. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: He's better than you think. Numbers are fine.

28. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

29. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

30. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

31. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Time to sell high before the Panthers backfield gets too crowded, but he's not a bad option this week.

32. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: Might be your last chance to acquire this guy on the cheap.

33. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Same here. Fitzgerald didn't look healthy last week, but he still caught a touchdown.

34. James Jones, WR, Packers

35. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: I did not rank C.J. Spiller, because I don't expect him to play, but if he does, he'd rank in the next spot. Jackson gets double-digit fantasy points each week … and he's playing.

36. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

37. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

38. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

39. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: One of these weeks he'll get many, many touches. Why not this week?

40. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: First monster game, but he'd been doing just fine before that.

41. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: I really doubt the Browns trade him. They're playing well now.

42. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: Monday came just in time; his owners were panicking.

43. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: His owners are certainly panicking. Here comes what's left of the Philly defense!

44. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: If you still have him, this isn't a bad week to flex him.

45. David Wilson, RB, Giants: Same here. He has to improve. Has to.

46. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: If he plays, he's worth using. But this is still where I'd rank him.

47. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

48. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: Currently among the top-10 fantasy running backs in scoring.

49. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

50. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: See, he's not too old!

51. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Perhaps he's not that bad after all.

52. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders

53. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Overrated, but you might need him.

54. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Well, see the guy above.

55. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

56. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

57. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos

58. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

59. Willis McGahee, RB, Browns: Yeah, he did better in Week 4 than the nine rushing yards he posted the week before, but it's not like he was Adrian Peterson.

60. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills

61. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: It will get better. Stick with him.

62. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots: Everyone will jump ship when reinforcements arrive, but that's a mistake.

63. Rashad Jennings, RB, Raiders: He's not so good, but Darren McFadden is not so healthy.

64. Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers: A fine PPR-league producer, but he's not Sproles yet.

65. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

66. Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers

67. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens: Man, his owners realize he had a chance to shine, but didn't.

68. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins: At some point, he might rank better than his teammate Wallace.

69. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Brian Hartline over Roddy White. Hard to believe.

70. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Big Week 4, and the schedule does get attractive. The NFC East foes are coming up!

71. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals

72. Nate Washington, WR, Titans: Schedule for him and his new QB gets tougher.

73. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals

74. Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens

75. Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets

76. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: No sign of Mark Ingram anymore.

77. Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons

78. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams: Would be interesting if Rams gave him 6-8 rushing attempts per game.

79. Ben Tate, RB, Texans

80. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

81. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans

82. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos

83. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

84. Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers: Where one fumble costs so much. But really, he's behind Lacy regardless.

85. Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams: Tough rank? Perhaps, but what has he proven?

86. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks

87. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

88. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots

89. Chris Givens, WR, Rams

90. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers

91. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars: Makes his debut, and deserves to be owned.

92. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks: Remember when his fantasy fans thought he'd be a top-20 receiver? Funny, I don't hear from them anymore.

93. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

94. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos: With him, it's not as funny. He should be a far more valuable fantasy option.

95. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals

96. Robert Woods, WR, Bills

97. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams: Lost opportunity.

98. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

99. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles

100. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers

Others: Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals; Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots; Rod Streater, WR, Raiders; Jared Cook, TE, Rams; Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions; Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears;Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers; Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers; Davone Bess, WR, Browns; Austin Pettis, WR, Rams; Michael Bush, RB, Bears; Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams; Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns; Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins; Tashard Choice, RB, Bills.

HacheMan · Oct 3, 2013

[h=1]Matthew Berry on Matthew Berry[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Before we start -- and by "we" I really mean me, because let's face it, I'm the one doing all the work here, and no, what you're doing right now doesn't count as work, no matter how much you grunt -- I just wanted to thank everyone for all their kind words about both the Muppets column and the actual Muppets script I posted in social media last week. Obviously meant a lot to me.

Speaking of social media, if you follow me on Twitter or on Facebook, you no doubt saw me promoting the "60 Minutes Sports" profile they did on me and fantasy sports that aired Wednesday night. If you missed it, you can read more about it here.
Being interviewed by "60 Minutes Sports" was, as you might imagine, surreal. The crew was very nice and professional; I had a blast with Sharyn Alfonsi, the correspondent; and they were very thorough. All told, they spent the better part of six days with me, filming our ESPN Radio event in Dallas, a book signing event for "Fantasy Life," me at home with my family, me at work on a Sunday morning here at ESPN, me actually drafting at the "Howard Stern Show" fantasy football league and then speaking with them on camera for a few hours at their NYC studios.
I watched it when it originally aired Wednesday night, of course, and it was definitely a bit weird to sit there and watch the piece with my family; the familiar ticking of the stopwatch and then there I am, in the famous "60 Minutes" interview pose and Sharyn is talking about me. I've been on TV plenty in my life, but very rarely when someone was talking about me. Usually, I'm the one talking about someone else. Anyone who listens to the podcast knows I can talk forever, and the whole piece was probably about 15 minutes, so there are definitely some topics we didn't get to that I wish we'd covered. So with that in mind, I'm continuing the interview. Sharyn's not here to ask the questions, but whatever; I can handle that too. How tough can it be, right? So let's adjust the lights, put on the microphone, take a sip of water and get to it.

Sits down, shakes hand)
Q: Really? You're wearing that?
A: Is that a question? Has the interview started?
Q: Well, it's a profile piece, "60 Minutes Sports," the whole deal; just surprised that's what you chose. Are you wearing makeup? Is that lipstick?
A: What happened to a nice welcome, thanks for being here, that sort of thing?
Q: Thanks for being here. Welcome to the show.
A: That's better ...
Q: Seriously, are you wearing lipstick?
A: No. I mean, I don't think so. I don't remember actually. I just sort of go to makeup and zone out and let them do what they do.
Q: So they might have put lipstick on you?
A: Probably not, maybe, whatever, I need all the help I can get.
Q: No question. Just an agreement.
A: You could have argued with me a little bit on that one. My wife thought I looked great.
Q: She's legally required to. Are you going to talk actual fantasy football at any point?
A: I'm just answering the questions you're asking.
Q: So now it's my fault? Do I have to do everything?
A: I mean, not everything but …
Q: How come you never take responsibility for your own actions?
A: OK then! So ... how about some buy-low guys? It's four weeks into the season now, I always say you shouldn't make a major move in fantasy until four weeks in; that's when you have enough of a sample size to see what your team is made of, but there's still enough season left to make a move.
Q: Sure, what do you have?
A: Here's my list of players that I think will increase in value going forward:
• Tom Brady: completing 67 percent of passes the past two weeks, reinforcements coming.
• Giovani Bernard: might be a tough get because chances are his owner is a believer, but the touches keep increasing.
• Danny Woodhead: averaging 4.7 yards per carry, at least seven targets a game over the past three and now getting red zone carries. Not a typical running back, but getting the job done in San Diego in a way Ryan Mathews is not.
• Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris: Better days ahead for three of the best running backs in the NFL. If I can get any of them for less than top-seven value, I'm doing it.
• David Wilson: schedule gets a lot easier the rest of the way, as only two of the teams he'll face are currently top 12 in run defense.
• Antonio Brown: Of the Steelers' 12 remaining games, only two are against opponents in that are top-10 in limiting points to wide receivers.
• Torrey Smith: discussed below as well, but averaging 10 targets a game, including the most deep targets in the NFL; the touchdowns will come.
Q: Not a bad list. Who says you're totally useless?
A: Someone says that?
Q: I don't know, do they?
A: No.
Q: Are you sure?

A: No. Is this the part where you make me cry? Where you get all personal with me?

Q: No, that's later, when we remind people you recommended Maurice Jones-Drew in the preseason.
A: Yeah, that was a bad call. Brutal. I'm selling him for 50 cents on the dollar, especially if he does anything this week against the Rams. Upcoming schedule is brutal and I don't think he gets traded to a better team.
Q: OK, although in fairness, your evaluation of Maurice Jones-Drew really shouldn't be trusted at all, should it?
A: I'm starting to well up.
Q: Good, it's about time you showed some emotion, you robot.
A: Robot? I'm emoting all over the place here.
Q: That's not emoting, that's saying stats with flair.
A: You want me to dig deep? Get emotional?
Q: I was surprised there wasn't more of that in the piece.
A: We talked about it. They must have cut for time. I mentioned how fantasy sports saved my life.
Q: That's a bit over the top, Johnny Drama.
A: Maybe. But in the book there's a really uplifting chapter on how fantasy has helped people overcome great personal demons and tragedies, from the loss of a loved one, to cancer, to alcoholism and drug use, to physical disability to, in my case, intense clinical depression. Without fantasy, I'm still depressed in Los Angeles living a life I hated. Without it, I'm not at ESPN; without ESPN I don't meet my wife; without her I don't have my kids. I certainly felt saved. It's circle-of-life stuff. Big theme in the book and in my life. It's important to me.
Q: Am I supposed to hug you now? What was that?
A: I'm just trying to show some depth here. This is "60 Minutes." Shouldn't you be grilling me? Cornering me with the tough questions, getting to the truth by using my own words against me?
Q: Think you're doing that all by yourself.
A: No need to be condescending.
Q: Need? No. Fun? Yes.
A: Is this over yet?
Q: You're the one who wanted this. Truthfully, I voted for us to do Karabell. I'm doing whatever I can to make you interesting.
A: What are you doing, exactly? You're all over the place! You're not asking anything.
Q: What's to ask? You just spill everything anyway. I'm trying to get you to shut up, actually.
A: Shut up?!? It's an interview! I'm supposed to talk.
Q: Talk, not pontificate. Yawn. Seriously, what about Stephania Bell? She seems interesting.
A: Hey now, you're starting to get personal here.
Q: What are you gonna do about it?
A: Really? You're calling me out?
Q: Chicken.
A: This isn't happening, right? You're serious?
Q: Bak bak bak. Bak! BAK! BAK!!
A: That's it.
(Gets up from chair, lunges at interviewer, punches thrown, rolling around on the floor, light knocked over ...)
Huh. Well, that didn't go like I thought. It never does. In fantasy or in life. My sincere thanks to Alan Goldberg, James Watson and Sharyn Alfonsi; the piece was actually great and it was an honor. I'd also like to thank Zach Rodgers and the gang at ESPN Stats & Information. They had nothing to do with the "60 Minutes" piece but he did, as always, help with this column. Rock stars.
As always, this is not a pure start/sit column. Most of the people you're starting or sitting aren't listed here, as I try to avoid obvious names (on both sides) unless something specifically stands out. For questions about whether I'd start this guy or that guy check my rankings, which are updated every day.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 5[/h]
Tom Brady, Patriots: Super Bowl MVP. Supermodel wife. The ability to yell at wide receivers who drop passes. Tom's a hero to regular folk and fantasy owners alike, yet I'm the only one to have him in the top five this week. Part of it is that I expect him to get at least one of Danny Amendola or Rob Gronkowski back. Part of it is Kenbrell Thompkins, who has now dropped the "Dropkins" nickname (see what I did there?) Part of is the banged-up Bengals secondary that just gave up 269 yards and two scores to Brian Hoyer, who, according to at least one former depth chart, is not as good as Tom Brady. But mostly it's just that he's Tom Flippin' Brady and coming off his first 300-yard game of the year, he's gonna remind you of that.
Philip Rivers, Chargers: At least 22 points in three of four games this year, he's top-10 in the NFL in yards, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns and fans saying "Wait, Philip Rivers? THAT Philip Rivers? Really?" A shoddy defense and struggling run game means he'll continue to throw, and he's playing Oakland. If you need an RG III replacement this week, here he is. Only question left to answer is who sold his soul to the devil, Rivers or Mike McCoy?
Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: Even better, you don't have to stay up and watch him! It's not just the matchup that's tasty (San Diego is 29th versus the pass and gives up the most points to opposing quarterbacks), but it's the rushing, too: The Chargers are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, third-most. I'm expecting him to play and to be a top-12 option this week.
If you're desperate: In Eli Manning's past six against the Eagles, he's averaged three touchdowns, and Philly is currently giving up the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Concentrate on those two facts and not the whole "Eli has only two touchdowns in the past three games" thing. ... All he does is win games! Brian Hoyer has five scores in the past two games and, while Thursday games tend to be lower-scoring, the Bills' defense has given up at least two touchdowns to every quarterback they've faced this year.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 5[/h]Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Last three games haven't been great for Mr. Wilson. He's averaging just 155.7 passing yards, completing just 54 percent of his passes (29th in the league), and rumor has it he burned his eggs five breakfasts in a row. The Seahawks average just 24 passes a game (lowest among qualified quarterbacks) and they're on the road against a Colts defense that is seventh in passing, fourth in scoring and allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Now, Indy isn't this good, they've feasted on a nice schedule of QBs, but given other available options and his lack of big numbers, I have Wilson outside my top ten this week.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Another guy struggling over the past three, Colin has thrown for under 168 yards in each game, has seven turnovers in four games and has just two touchdown passes in his past three. The rushing has been inconsistent and it's not a great matchup, as Houston forces opponents to go three-and-out on 50 percent of their possessions, the highest rate in the league. They are also holding opposing quarterbacks to just 141 passing yards per game, by far the fewest in the league. I expect a lowish-scoring game (Vegas has the over/under at 41.5), so while he'll be OK, Kaepernick, like Wilson, is outside my top 10 this week.
Jay Cutler, Bears: From the "Yawn, you don't say" department, Jay Cutler has completed just 42 percent of his passes when under pressure this season. The Saints will bring some. Plus, they have the highest interception-per-pass-attempt rate in the league (5.4 percent), they are top-10 in recording a sack on dropbacks and they allow the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: The Panthers' defense is a lot better than you think. Carson Palmer is not.
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 5[/h]Ray Rice, Ravens: How many times do we say, "Don't get cute? Start your studs." Last week the Ravens got cute, benched their stud and lost. It won't happen again.
Matt Forte, Bears: I keep putting him in "Love," he keeps exceeding high expectations. Saints pass defense has been legit this year. The run defense? Not so much. Obvious name, of course, but I put him in because I have him as a top-three play and this is a good week to use him in single-eliminator games or salary-cap games.
Chris Johnson, Titans: I know, I know. I own him in a dynasty league and it's killing me too. But dude leads the NFL in red zone carries, is third in total carries and I expect Tennessee to lean on him even more with Jake Locker out. You can run on Kansas City (they're allowing 5.4 yards per carry), so expect the touchdown drought to end this week.
Eddie Lacy, Packers: Pick a stat, any stat: Lions allow third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, tied for fourth-highest yards per carry, tied for third-most rushing touchdowns. Very simply, Saturday is your last day to buy low on Eddie Lacy.
David Wilson, Giants: "Here lies Matthew Berry. He believed in David Wilson too long." If he can't do it against Philly, very good chance you're reading that next week. I'm in for one more week.
Rashad Jennings, Raiders: Thought Jennings looked solid after taking over for McFadden last week, and it's a good matchup. San Diego is allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, third-most in the league. And its 5.3 yards on zone read carries, which is good since I expect Terrelle Pryor to play in this game. Sneaky PPR play here as well. Raiders running backs are tied for sixth in the league in targets.
Bilal Powell, Jets: Over 100 total yards in two straight, double-digit fantasy points in three straight, I expect him to be the focal point of the offense, with much of the Jets receiving corps banged-up. If Chris Ivory plays in this game, I'll lower Powell to a flex (currently have him as a high RB2), but the Falcons have given up at least 15 points to opposing running backs in every game except the Rams one, so I like Powell's chances at double digits here.
If you're desperate: Willis McGahee should get the ball more than any other Brown and has a solid matchup with Buffalo on Thursday night. ... I don't expect Danny Woodhead to have two touchdowns every week, but he leads the Chargers' running backs in snaps and he's good for at least five catches in what should be a high-scoring game.
[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 5:[/h]
C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, Bills:Now, this assumes both are active. If Spiller is ruled out, Jackson becomes interesting, but I'm worried they are not 100 percent healthy, that Browns defense is sneaky good, it's a short week and they are splitting carries. You probably don't have better options, especially this week, if you own either of these guys, especially Spiller, but as a wise man once said, curb your enthusiasm.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: No scores this year with Cam Newton andMike Tolbert back there; I don't think that's a fluke. He'll score eventually, probably this week since I just put him in the "Hate" section, but I'm a believer in Arizona's run defense this year. Cards have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per carry and they've given up only one rushing touchdown as well.
Rams running backs: As of this writing we're not sure who is starting, and sadly, I'm not sure it matters. The run game is a hot mess and I want no part of it, even with a cushy matchup. If we get clarity before Sunday that one specific guy will be the starter, then fine, start him as a flex if you must, but this is too murky for me to trust.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: Panthers are legit (they've help opponents to 70 rush yards or less in six of the last seven) and Mendenhall averaged just 1.8 yards per carry last week. Don't be surprised to see Andre Ellington do better in this game and become the starter there sooner than later.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers: In Week 3, it was Ronnie Brown. Last week, it was Danny Woodhead. Woodhead received the only two red zone carries for the Chargers last Sunday. Think about that. Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead have more red zone rushes and more touchdowns than Ryan Mathews.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 5[/h]Josh Gordon, Browns: Normally I don't like guys on Thursday night, but the combo of Gordon's talent, bad Bills secondary and the two first names is too much to resist. Since he returned two weeks ago, no receiver has been targeted more on throws at least 15 yards downfield. The Bills, meanwhile, are allowing the second-most receiving yards on throws at least 15 yards downfield. Oh, and they've allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this year.
Victor Cruz, Giants: Only on here because I have him second overall. He's red-hot, the Eagles are red-not. See what I did there? This is like a master class in fantasy analysis. Or basic rhyming. You're welcome, America. Eagles have allowed the most receptions and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this year and they don't have anyone that can keep up with Cruz, who torches them every time he plays them.
Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots: See Brady, Tom.
Torrey Smith, Ravens: Averaging 10 targets a game and catching at least four balls for 85 yards in every game this year -- he's an every-week starter these days; people just don't realize it.
Calvin Johnson, Lions: The most obvious of the obvious names, I'm just putting him here because he torches the Packers. Eleven scores in 11 games, he's averaging better than 8 receptions and 168 yards in this past three against them. Worth the money this week in salary-cap games.
Jeremy Kerley, Jets: They gotta throw it to someone, so why not last year's team-leading receiver?
If you're desperate: Alshon Jeffery has at least eight targets in three of four games, including the last two. ... Nothing but a gut call here, but Chris Givens is due. ... Again, don't love Thursday night games, but worth noting that Robert Woods has now seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks, had a score and came very close to a second last week.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 5[/h]Mike Wallace, Dolphins: So Mike Wallace has averaged 11.7 yards per reception this season, which, if it continues, would be the lowest of his career. His yards per catch have dropped each season since 2010 and Wallace only has one catch at least 15 yards downfield this season, which is fourth on the Dolphins. Ravens have allowed just one score to an opposing wide receiver in the past three games.
Stevie Johnson, Bills: Bad hammy, short week, Joe Haden. Pick a reason, any reason.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts: Love his talent but he's a secondary receiver on a run-first team these days (just one red zone target so far), and Seattle has allowed just one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver (and the fewest fantasy points).
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 5[/h]
Jordan Cameron, Browns: Before, now and forever.
Greg Olsen, Panthers: Olsen has basically doubled his average red zone targets from last year, while on pace for the highest catch rate of his career. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. With Patrick Peterson on Steve Smith (Peterson is overrated as a shut-down corner, but still), Olsen should get extra love this week.
Coby Fleener, Colts: Since Week 2, after Dwayne Allen's injury, Fleener is top-10 in tight end targets and receptions and top-six in yards and red zone targets and has two scores in three games. Seattle is 18th in yards allowed to tight ends.
If you're desperate: Someone's got to catch the ball for the Jets and it can't always be Kerley, so maybe Kellen Winslow gets a little more love. ... Brent Celek is more appealing this week than most. The Giants give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. … It's now three scores in four games for Garrett Graham of the Texans.
[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 5[/h]Vernon Davis, 49ers: Yeah, he caught a touchdown last week, but his targets, receptions and yards have dropped in all three games he's played in since the start of this season. Given the depth of the position this week, I don't wanna have to hope for a score from Davis, especially since the Texans have allowed only eight receptions to opposing tight ends, fewest in the league.
Brandon Myers, Giants: 7, 6, 3... His reception totals are heading in the wrong direction. He's needed to block more, and for all the issues in Philly, they've actually defended the tight end fairly well, with the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 5[/h]
Cleveland Browns: Scoring 12 points in each of the last two games, Buffalo is banged -up on a short week. Don't see them having a ton of success here, which should mean another double-digit game for Cleveland's defense.
Kansas City Chiefs: Three different 20-point games in four weeks, how are they not 100 percent owned yet? How many weeks do I gotta keep talking about them?
If you're desperate: The St. Louis Rams are the answer to "What team plays the Jags this week?" ... The Atlanta Falcons have 13 interceptions in home games since the start of 2012, tied for the fifth-most in the league. And now they get Geno "five interceptions in two road games" Smith and a banged-up receiving corps. ... As much as I talked up Hoyer and Gordon, the Buffalo Bills have actually played pretty decent fantasy defense this year, and again, short week, etc.
[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 5[/h]Philadelphia Eagles: I know, I know, they're playing the Giants, but I'd rather bet on Eli and his gang figuring it out than on Philly stopping someone. Don't get cute.
Cincinnati Bengals: See Thompkins, Kenbrell.
And there you have it. Week 5 Love/Hate is in the books. Aren't you glad you asked?

HacheMan · Oct 7, 2013

[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 5[/h][h=3]Plenty of unsung wideouts shine; Vick, Wilson, Mathews leave with injuries[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Of the consensus top 11 wideouts heading into the season, check out the Week 5 carnage (with one obvious exception):

1. Calvin Johnson: Didn't play because of a knee injury
2. A.J. Green: Five catches for 61 yards
3. Dez Bryant: Six catches for 141 yards and two TDs, also known as: the exception
4. Brandon Marshall: Four catches for 30 yards and a TD
5. Julio Jones: Plays Monday
6. Demaryius Thomas: Five catches for 57 yards
7. Roddy White: Plays Monday
8. Vincent Jackson: Bye
9. Andre Johnson: Three catches for 39 yards
10. Randall Cobb: Four catches for 35 yards (but added two carries for 72 yards)
11. Larry Fitzgerald: Three catches for 43 yards

Fortunately for Megatron's fantasy owners, the Detroit Lions announced before game time that their stud wideout would be inactive, so you had a chance to change your lineup. Unfortunately, no Lions replacement was good; likeliest suspect Ryan Broyles had two grabs for 27 yards.

Meanwhile, such supposedly middling fantasy commodities as Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Terrance Williams, Rueben Randle, Justin Blackmon, Keenan Allen and Austin Pettis went bonkers. Jeffery was the best: He produced 218 yards and a TD on 13 targets and 10 grabs, giving him 325 yards and two scores in his past two games, after managing 104 yards and zero scores in his first three. Does this mean Jeffery is the new Marshall, and a must-start? Let's put it this way: Defensive help isn't shifting to Jeffery's side anytime soon, and the Chicago Bears face the awful New York Giants' defense Thursday night. No doubt there comes a point where we can consider using these short-term wonders in place of struggling options like Dwayne Bowe, Steve Smith and Steve Johnson. Are we there yet? It's up to your individual risk tolerance. I'll say this: Jeffery was No. 32 on my WR list this week, the highest of this week's shocking WR studs. He'll be even higher in Week 6.

Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• David Wilson scored a touchdown! All was right with the world! For about one quarter. Wilson is utterly determined not to give you any solace. Either that, or he owns Brandon Jacobs on his fantasy team. On the final play of the first quarter Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, Wilson got a carry up the gut from his own 5, smacked into the line and bounced backward. Half of the Philly defense crowded into him in the end zone, driving him to the turf, and Wilson suffered a neck injury. (No truth to the rumor that Wilson hurt his neck doing a double-backflip after his TD.) Initial reports indicate that Wilson's injury isn't considered serious, but he was held out of the rest of the game as a precaution. As I just mentioned, the Giants play Thursday against the Bears, which doesn't give Wilson much time to get ready. Jacobs had 37 yards on 11 carries in Wilson's absence, and it was painful to watch. Don't rule out New York signing a street free agent.

• Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh wasn't lying when he said Ray Rice would be the focus of his Week 5 game plan. Rice never broke a play longer than 7 yards Sunday, but he touched it an impressive 33 times for 102 total yards, and more importantly, converted two goal-line runs for short TDs. It seems safe to assert that Rice's hip problem is behind him. You're using him without reservation next week against the Green Bay Packers.

• Speaking of the Pack, they cruised over the Lions in the second half using Eddie Lacy as their primary weapon. Lacy got 13 carries and one target in the first half, followed by 10 carries in the second. I'm not the least bit concerned that Lacy had no runs longer than 13 yards. If you watched him go, you saw the violent, powerful, change-of-direction player we all hoped we were getting. Lacy's biggest worry at this point is a Packers offense that bogs down in opposing territory too frequently; the last piece he's missing is a plethora of short scores. It's worth noting that Week 3 celebrity Johnathan Franklin was barely used even with James Starks out; Franklin had three carries for 1 yard and then fumbled in the second quarter (Aaron Rodgers recovered) and was never heard from again. I'm not ditching Franklin just yet unless I'm in need of a roster spot, because his Week 3 effort was legit and no joke. But let's see if a residency in the Packers' doghouse is forthcoming.

• Tom Brady failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in 52 games (though he came within inches in the fourth quarter on a weird, uncoordinated catch by Danny Amendola), leading to an awful five standard-league fantasy points. The song remains the same: Brady awaits Rob Gronkowski. But the hard facts of the case are: You can't blame Tom Terrific's pass catchers for this one. Brady was massively pressured in this game and made some inaccurate throws. And then there was the running game. Stevan Ridley was inactive. LeGarrette Blount had a couple of spry runs, but then did what he always does: hurt his team with mistakes. Blount lost a fumble in Cincinnati Bengals territory and was scarcely seen again, as Brandon Bolden took over backfield duties. In fact, the only time I really noticed another Blount carry came on the play after Amendola just missed scoring. He got a carry from the Cincy 1 and -- surprise! -- couldn't convert. He's the worst giant short-yardage runner I've ever seen. What a mess. Brady will presumably get better. This RB situation is hands-off, pure and simple.

• Michael Vick is hurt again. And water is wet.

• But seriously, folks. Vick was on his way to a huge Sunday, with 105 passing yards and 79 rushing yards in less than a half before he pulled a hamstring. In his place, Nick Foles had some down moments, but mostly played quite well, including two solid throws for TDs. Vick was able to keep playing for a couple of snaps after his injury, so it's probably not a major one. But Foles is worth keeping an eye on.

• Ryan Mathews suffered a concussion on his third carry of Sunday night's loss against the Oakland Raiders, but I seriously was getting to the point of ranking him behind Danny Woodhead even without the injury. Before Mathews got hurt, Woody had out-touched him 5-to-3, and had clearly out-snapped him as well. I don't want to sell you Woodhead as anything resembling a must-start player; he lost most short-yardage carries to Ronnie Brown once Mathews was out, though he did score a red-zone TD from the Oakland 5. But it's time to pull the plug on Mathews. In a 10-team league, I'm OK with dropping him. If he comes back to haunt you later in the season, well, stuff happens. But I'm not counting on it.

• Pierre Thomas got 19 carries! Holy schnikey! Of course, he did next-to-nothing with those looks, getting stymied for 36 yards. But he took the Darren Sproles role in the New Orleans Saints' offense by catching all nine of his targets for 55 yards and two scores. Certainly Mark Ingram's absence has clarified things a bit in the Saints' backfield, but probably not enough. I had several angry tweeters demand an explanation of why I didn't have Sproles (six touches, 41 yards) in the top 10 in this week's RB ranks. Now you understand why.

• Another Thomas went kooky Sunday: Denver Broncos TE Julius Thomas. Orange Julius scored twice and grabbed nine of 12 targets for 122 yards, and now is up to six TDs for the season. Thomas' usage is pretty obviously situational. The Dallas Cowboys put everything they had into stopping Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, and left Julius Thomas man-to-man all afternoon with either a free safety or a middle linebacker on him. They picked their poison, and Julius Thomas crushed them. Some weeks, defenses will choose differently, and he will be quieter. But he's still worth a start most weeks, just for his upside.

• Two of fantasy's most annoying players, Chris Johnson and Hakeem Nicks, finally made some plays that made them worth owning. Johnson was mostly his typical doggy self, rushing it 10 times for 17 yards and yielding all high-value carries to Jackie Battle, but Ryan Fitzpatrick avoided a midfield sack just long enough to offer a desperation flip pass to Johnson, who took it to the house. Hey! He can do that? Awesome! It was Johnson's first TD of the season, and at the moment, he doesn't look like a guy who'll get five all year. If I could, I'd sell based on this performance. As for Nicks, he had nine grabs for 142 yards against the Eagles' awful corners, but of course, he had to poke a finger in his fantasy owners' eyes by allowing an easy TD on a fade route to clang off his hands. (Randle scored on the next play.) I'd be just as willing to sell Nicks high.

• Mike Wallace stuffed the stat sheet with 16 targets and seven grabs for 105 yards, but I was left unimpressed. Much of that work came early, and later on, he was a woof-meister. I'm not sure how many drops the official scorer will give Wallace, but I counted four, including two on a crucial late-game drive. Listen, the Miami Dolphins don't have much in the way of other playmaking options. Mr. Sixty Minutes will continue to be Ryan Tannehill's top target. But I'm sorry, the man should be better than he is. It's frustrating.

• Zac Stacy didn't stir the echoes of Marshall Faulk (or even Steven Jackson), but he generated the most rushing yards of any St. Louis Rams RB in a single game so far this year: He had 14 carries for 78 yards. This was still a split job with Daryl Richardson, who had 10 carries before Stacy left the game with a minor rib injury, plus it came against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I didn't see much of this game, and look forward to watching Stacy on tape Monday; he wasn't a potential NFL star at Vanderbilt, but I liked his toughness and vision, so I'm hopeful. Still, no matter who the Rams' lead back is in Week 6, expect tougher sledding against the Houston Texans.

• Taking a page from starter Darren McFadden's playbook, Raiders backup RB Rashad Jennings played decently in the first half Sunday night, then suffered a hamstring pull and was never heard from again. In his stead, Marcel Reece got the backfield work and was just fine. If the universe is merciful, we'll get DMC and Jennings ruled out early this week for Oakland's Sunday tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs, and Reece will be named the starter. In such a scenario, at minimum he'd be a decent flex option.

• Before the Carolina Panthers' bye, Cam Newton produced his first Newton-esque game of his third season: three pass TDs, one rush TD and 28 fantasy points. There was reason to expect he'd keep it going against the Arizona Cardinals, especially because his rushing is supposed to make him relatively slump-proof. Um, no. Newton did eclipse 300 yards passing for the first time this season, but he tossed three picks (one was deflected, but still) and most troublingly rushed it four times for 25 yards. The big guy has 118 rush yards in four games, putting him on pace for 472; he's never been below 706 in his prior seasons. So much for slump-proof.

• Two of fantasy's most annoying players, Chris Johnson and Hakeem Nicks, finally made some plays that made them worth owning. Johnson was mostly his typical doggy self, rushing it 10 times for 17 yards and yielding all high-value carries to Jackie Battle, but Ryan Fitzpatrick avoided a midfield sack just long enough to offer a desperation flip pass to Johnson, who took it to the house. Hey! He can do that? Awesome! It was Johnson's first TD of the season, and at the moment, he doesn't look like a guy who'll get five all year. If I could, I'd sell based on this performance. As for Nicks, he had nine grabs for 142 yards against the Eagles' awful corners, but of course, he had to poke a finger in his fantasy owners' eyes by allowing an easy TD on a fade route to clang off his hands. (Randle scored on the next play.) I'd be just as willing to sell Nicks high.

• Mike Wallace stuffed the stat sheet with 16 targets and seven grabs for 105 yards, but I was left unimpressed. Much of that work came early, and later on, he was a woof-meister. I'm not sure how many drops the official scorer will give Wallace, but I counted four, including two on a crucial late-game drive. Listen, the Miami Dolphins don't have much in the way of other playmaking options. Mr. Sixty Minutes will continue to be Ryan Tannehill's top target. But I'm sorry, the man should be better than he is. It's frustrating.

• Zac Stacy didn't stir the echoes of Marshall Faulk (or even Steven Jackson), but he generated the most rushing yards of any St. Louis Rams RB in a single game so far this year: He had 14 carries for 78 yards. This was still a split job with Daryl Richardson, who had 10 carries before Stacy left the game with a minor rib injury, plus it came against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I didn't see much of this game, and look forward to watching Stacy on tape Monday; he wasn't a potential NFL star at Vanderbilt, but I liked his toughness and vision, so I'm hopeful. Still, no matter who the Rams' lead back is in Week 6, expect tougher sledding against the Houston Texans.

• Taking a page from starter Darren McFadden's playbook, Raiders backup RB Rashad Jennings played decently in the first half Sunday night, then suffered a hamstring pull and was never heard from again. In his stead, Marcel Reece got the backfield work and was just fine. If the universe is merciful, we'll get DMC and Jennings ruled out early this week for Oakland's Sunday tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs, and Reece will be named the starter. In such a scenario, at minimum he'd be a decent flex option.

• Before the Carolina Panthers' bye, Cam Newton produced his first Newton-esque game of his third season: three pass TDs, one rush TD and 28 fantasy points. There was reason to expect he'd keep it going against the Arizona Cardinals, especially because his rushing is supposed to make him relatively slump-proof. Um, no. Newton did eclipse 300 yards passing for the first time this season, but he tossed three picks (one was deflected, but still) and most troublingly rushed it four times for 25 yards. The big guy has 118 rush yards in four games, putting him on pace for 472; he's never been below 706 in his prior seasons. So much for slump-proof.

HacheMan · Oct 7, 2013

[h=1]Beware of Thursday games[/h][h=3]Tight ends, QBs see large declines, while defenses/special teams naturally thrive[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

If you thought the Cleveland Browns' 37-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills this past Thursday night was unusual, you're not alone.

Unusual, in this case, doesn't refer merely to two mediocre teams outscoring their season-to-date averages by 23 points combined. Rather, it's acknowledgement of there being a high-scoring Thursday affair at all … and, well, we can toss in the added fact that it was the Bills and Browns who played it.

The Bills and Browns, neither of whom had quarterbacks ranked among the top 18 at their position in fantasy points entering the week and both of whom had to call upon their backup quarterbacks in the same game, engaged in the fifth-highest-scoring Thursday game since the beginning of 2011; the only ones that featured more scoring were the three Thanksgiving 2012 games and Week 1 of this season (you'll remember that as Peyton Manning's 46-point masterpiece). The two teams also combined to score nearly 19 points more than the Thursday average from 2011-13 (42.3 points combined, including Week 5).

And yet, even with all those points on the scoreboard, Bills-Browns followed largely the same blueprint that other Thursday games in recent history did.

The same fantasy blueprint, that is.

You might have heard whispers of scoring being down in general on Thursday nights -- a point colleague Matthew Berry even made in his Sept. 26 "Love/Hate" -- but what you might not know is the impact of those lower point totals upon individual positions. There's a strange, strange phenomenon present on Thursday, and the best way to illustrate it is to take things position-by-position.

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Here is the puzzling reality: Quarterbacks stink on Thursdays.

OK, that might be an extreme statement, considering we're only 32 days removed from Manning's aforementioned 46-point fantasy outburst -- that one the 11th-best single-game fantasy effort since 2000 and the fifth-best fantasy day by a quarterback since 1960 -- but let's not forget the important distinction between Manning's performance and the others: It was the season opener, not your traditional Thursday game with both teams playing on only three days' rest. The preseason schedule was completed seven days earlier, and besides, the players we label "fantasy superstars" rarely ever play much, if any, of their teams' fourth preseason games. For the purpose of this analysis, the Thursday games taken into consideration are only those in which the team in question played four days earlier on Sunday, and ones played between 2011 and 2013; and for the record, that means the only games excluded were the Thursday "NFL kickoff" games in 2011 and 2013.

OK, that might be an extreme statement Part 2: In fairness, not every quarterback out-and-out stunk on Thursday. For example, Tom Brady had a 30-point performance, tops among three-days-rest Thursday quarterbacks from 2011-13, last Thanksgiving. For some reason, Thanksgiving -- or perhaps merely Thanksgiving 2012 -- was seemingly an anomaly. But there will always be outliers to any study, and the evidence in support of the theory is overwhelmingly greater.

For your consideration, here are five notable fantasy quarterbacks, all of whom were selected among the top seven at the position this preseason, who have endured terribly disappointing Thursdays comparative to their 2011-13 per-game averages:

Aaron Rodgers: 10 FPTS (2012 Week 2), 22.8 FPTS per game 2011-13
Drew Brees: 3 FPTS (2012 Week 13), 22.5 FPTS per game 2011-13
Tom Brady: 11 FPTS (2012 Week 2), 20.2 FPTS per game 2011-13
Cam Newton: 9 FPTS (2012 Week 3), 20.1 FPTS per game 2011-13
Matt Ryan: 10 FPTS (2012 Week 13), 17.5 FPTS per game 2011-13

As an aside, this isn't necessarily just a "fantasy thing," either. Listed below are the Thursday averages comparative to other days; look specifically at how significant the difference in touchdown-to-interception ratio on that particular day.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
[h=4]NFL Statistics in Thursday Games Versus Other Days (2011-13)[/h]

<CENTER>Sample
Size (G)</CENTER> <CENTER>PPG*</CENTER> <CENTER>Avg. Win
Margin</CENTER> <CENTER>Touches
per G</CENTER> <CENTER>Passing
Att/G</CENTER> <CENTER>Rushing
Att/G</CENTER> <CENTER>Passing
TD/Int</CENTER> <CENTER>Rushing
YPC</CENTER>
Thursdays 60 21.1 +6.3 47.1 34.3 27.1 1.18 4.1
All Other Days 1116 22.6 +6.0 48.2 34.7 27.1 1.57 4.3
* Average points per game for one team, not both, in the given contest.

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Suddenly, Eli Manning's hope of correcting his interception issue and getting his New York Giants back into the win column Thursday in Chicago doesn't look so good.

[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
[h=4]Player Performance Comparison:
Thursdays vs. All Other Games (2011-13)[/h]

Pos. <CENTER>Thursdays</CENTER> <CENTER>Previous
Sunday</CENTER> <CENTER>All Other
Games*</CENTER>
QB 11.9 17.1 14.8
RB 16.2 15.1 15.9
WR 18.3 22.7 20.4
TE 4.5 6.7 7.0
K 7.9 6.9 7.9
D/ST 8.6 5.9 6.8
* Players' averages in all games that were not a Thursday game immediately following a Sunday game. For example, though the first game of Week 1 of the 2013 season was on a Thursday, it did not occur four days after the Baltimore Ravens' or Denver Broncos' previous regular-season contests, therefore it is included in this calculation.

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This is the unexpected one: Running backs exhibited scarcely any change in fantasy production on Thursdays, and looking at the raw numbers in the table to the right, one could argue that they've actually performed better on Thursday.

Why this is -- and why quarterbacks struggle -- remains unclear, but one theory for running backs' fantasy success is that they might have been asked to shoulder more of the burden in scoring position on that day to compensate for their quarterbacks' passing inadequacies. To that point, teams have run the football 48.6 percent of the time in the red zone and 64.2 percent of the time within the opponent's 5-yard line on Thursdays from 2011-13; they have run the football 46.7 percent of the time in the red zone and 53.6 percent within the 5-yard line on all other days of the week.

In other words, fantasy owners shouldn't shy from their running backs during the short week, with the lone exceptions being those coming off injuries four days earlier.

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Naturally, if quarterbacks suffer in terms of fantasy production on Thursday, it follows that so do wide receivers. The numbers support this, though wide receivers' diminished production is actually not as stark as that of their quarterbacks; wide receivers perform approximately 10 percent worse on Thursday than they do on all other days, while quarterbacks perform about 20 percent worse.

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
This is the position that positively plummets on Thursday, as tight ends have performed more than 35 percent worse on that day compared to all others.

Want the startling reality? In 30 Thursday games since the beginning of 2011, the only tight end to score more than 13 fantasy points was Julius Thomas (23) … and again, that came in the Week 1 game this season during which he was fully rested.

Exactly four tight ends have even reached double-digit fantasy points on a "three days' rest" Thursday: Martellus Bennett (13, Week 3 of 2012), Dustin Keller (12, Week 12 of 2012), Tony Gonzalez (11, Week 13 of 2012) and Antonio Gates (10, Week 9 of 2012). Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham (5, Week 13 of 2012), Jordan Cameron (3, Week 5 of 2013), Tony Gonzalez (1, Week 15 of 2011), Jason Witten (4, Week 12 of 2011) and Vernon Davis (3, Week 12 of 2011, and 0, Week 7 of 2012) endured some of their worst fantasy games on a Thursday.

Turning to the on-field game, tight ends have garnered only 18.6 percent of their quarterbacks' targets in Thursday games; that percentage rises to 22.6 percent on all other days of the week.

[h=3]Kickers[/h]
Who cares, they're kickers, right?

Right. Kicker is the one of these six fantasy positions that showed no discernible difference between Thursday and other-day performances. Their 6.9 average during the previous Sunday's games can be easily explained as statistical variance, considering kickers averaged exactly the same number of fantasy points in Thursday games on three days' rest as they did in any other game all year: 7.9.

[h=3]Defenses/Special Teams[/h]
Ah, here is where we reap a particular advantage. Naturally, if scoring is down on Thursdays, that'd benefit fantasy defense/special teams units, but what you might not realize is the extent of that benefit.

Defense/special teams units have averaged 8.6 fantasy points during Thursday games since the beginning of the 2011 season, nearly three full points greater than their averages four days earlier on Sunday (5.9), and more than a point and a half greater than their averages the entire remainder of the year.

There are three significant statistical differences between defenses' performance on Thursday versus other days of the week:

Sacks: 2.95 per game on Thursdays, 2.32 on other days
Fumbles recovered: 0.85 per game on Thursdays, 0.62 on other days
D/ST touchdowns: 0.32 per game on Thursdays, 0.25 on other days

Understandably, ball control and offensive line performance appears to be down on Thursdays, and defenses have capitalized. Tuck that away, because it could mean very good things for the Chicago Bears, the aforementioned Eli Manning's next opponent.

It also means potential matchups opportunities for defenses like the Carolina Panthers (Week 8 at Tampa Bay), Washington Redskins (Week 10 at Minnesota) and Dallas Cowboys (Week 13 versus Oakland), in upcoming weeks.

[h=3]Finally, the "sample size" question[/h]
It's a legitimate one, as Thursday games have accounted for only 5.3 percent of all scheduled games since the beginning of 2011. Statistical variance could therefore have influenced this study, meaning this shouldn't completely drive your decision-making: It would be ludicrous to bench Drew Brees during his Week 12 Thursday game at Atlanta simply because of the numbers above; the point is to temper his -- and any quarterback's -- projection accordingly. And if quarterbacks tend to suffer a 3-point drop in fantasy production on average on Thursday, applying that to Brees' 2011-13 average still results in a 19.5 score, which would've ranked him 11th, ninth, 10th, seventh and seventh at his position, going off weekly fantasy points by the position to date.

That still means a potential dropoff from must-start to barely-start status, however, and it's precisely the lesson to glean from this Thursday analysis.

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[h=4]Top 10 Fantasy Performances in Thursday Games (Since 1960)[/h]

Player <CENTER>Pos.</CENTER> <CENTER>Year</CENTER> <CENTER>Week</CENTER> <CENTER>Team</CENTER> <CENTER>Opp.</CENTER> <CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>
Corey Dillon RB 1997 15 Cin Ten 51
O.J. Simpson RB 1976 12* Buf @Det 39
Jim Braxton RB 1975 11* Buf @StL 37
Brian Westbrook RB 2008 13* Phi Ari 37
Sterling Sharpe WR 1994 13* GB @Dal 36
Eddie George RB 1999 14 Ten Oak 36
Randy Moss WR 1998 13* Min @Dal 36
Matt Cassel QB 2008 11 NE NYJ 36
Walter Payton RB 1977 11* Chi @Det 35
Emmitt Smith RB 1994 13* Dal GB 34
Barry Sanders RB 1997 14* Det Chi 34
* Thanksgiving Game

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HacheMan · Oct 8, 2013

Free-agent finds for Week 6

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 6's best fantasy roster additions:

(Week 6 byes: Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins)

Standard ESPN league finds

Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams (owned in 1.2 percent of ESPN leagues): All caveats should be invoked; Stacy's debut as a starting back came against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team. That said, I liked the tape quite a bit. The thing that led me and others to speculate this summer that Stacy might be a good early-down alternative to Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead was there: He's not a blazer (4.55 40), not huge (5-foot-8, 216 pounds) and probably not a future star, but he seems to have good vision and he does have terrific balance. You should know that Richardson was just about as involved as Stacy in Week 5, so we're probably in platoon-land. But Stacy is the head of that platoon. Richardson is quicker and faster, and I still think his 2013 game tape is just fine. But this week, Stacy's was probably better. He's a must add in all leagues, and one of the better finds of the season. (I should finish by saying: Field Yates identified Stacy last week -- before he was named the Rams' starter -- as his favorite sleeper for the rest of the year. Where did he do this? The Fantasy

Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders (3.7 percent): Rashad Jennings had 10 carries for 41 yards at halftime Sunday night but wasn't seen on the field again. He left the game with an injured hamstring, apparently taking a cue from the starter, Darren McFadden, who has his own hammy injury. Thereafter, when the Raiders lined up in a "diamond formation" with three RBs, it was Reece, Jeremy Stewart and Jamize Olawale. Just in case you're wondering, two of those players (including Reece) are fullbacks. But the thing about Reece is he's a darned good player. The converted college wideout won't blow you away with quickness or speed, but he has predictably good hands and doesn't make dumb plays. In Oakland, that'll take you far. As of this writing, we don't know whether McFadden or Jennings will be able to play Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs, but my guess is that neither will. That puts Reece in line for the start, and that's intriguing, especially in a PPR league.

Garrett Graham, TE, Houston Texans (3.4 percent): Owen Daniels reportedly might miss multiple weeks with an injured fibula, putting Graham in the crosshairs of what figures to be a conservative Texans passing attack moving forward. As if Matt Schaub hadn't done enough the past 12 months to prove he's not an above-average NFL QB, he has thrown a pick-six in four straight contests and overall in '13 has eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Houston will run all over the Rams in Week 6, but Graham -- who has three TDs already this year -- will be involved on the short stuff. He's the man Daniels owners should target.

Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1.3 percent): Williams made my "deep" list last week, when I wrote, "His only real path to fantasy relevance is continued poor health for Miles Austin." And that almost certainly continues to be true. Early speculation is that Austin will be ready to play Sunday night against the Washington Redskins, which relegates Williams to the No. 3 WR job in Big D. But I'm still moving T-Will up to the "standard-league" list because (a) Austin is no sure bet to stay healthy; and (b) Tony Romo proved his early-season short-passing ways are gone, and might actually have been related to the rib injury that sidelined him temporarily in Week 1. If it works out that Williams winds up Romo's permanent No. 2 WR because of another Austin injury, he's going to merit top-30 consideration.

LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden, RBs, New England Patriots (19.9 and 5.7 percent, respectively): Gross. Blount and Bolden submitted gross and disgusting moments in Week 5's loss. Blount lost a fumble at the end of a 7-yard run as the Pats were threatening the Cincinnati Bengals' red zone in the second quarter. Bolden dropped a screen pass in the first quarter that might've turned into a 40-yard gain. And Blount did what Blount does in short yardage, getting stuffed at the goal line in the game's key moment in the fourth quarter. I almost certainly would not be comfortable starting either of these players in Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints. Nevertheless, I'm promoting them from the "deep" list to the "standard" one because, if Stevan Ridley is still out with a knee injury, someone is getting backfield work.

Carolina Panthers defense (37.1 percent): It's not a great week for streaming defenses, as the usual-suspect terrible offenses all seem to be facing widely owned stud D/STs. The Panthers' front seven can play with anyone: Charles Johnson might have only three sacks, but there aren't many more disruptive 4-3 defensive ends; rookie Star Lotulelei has lived up to his reputation as a run stuffer; and right now Luke Kuechly is my All-Pro middle linebacker. You never like to invest heavily in the defense that's about to stare down Adrian Peterson, and Matt Cassel made the Minnesota Vikings' offense click a couple of weeks back. Add a shaky corner duo in Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Thomas and I feel just a tad queasy. That said, this still seems like the best play of a bad lot.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Willis McGahee, RB, Browns (22.2 percent); Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (15.5 percent); Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals (4.0 percent); Rashad Jennings, RB, Raiders (20.4 percent); Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers (8.8 percent); Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (41.6 percent); Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars (20.0 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (39.5 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (21.1 percent); Coby Fleener, TE, Colts (23.3 percent).

Deeper-league finds

Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (0.5 percent): Foles started rough after Michael Vick went out with a bad hamstring, but he did get better. His path to midgame improvement leading the Eagles to a come-from-behind win over the New York Giants was remembering the underneath passing game, and not trying so hard to connect on a bomb right away. It was clear his comfort level rose as his defense got him good field position in the fourth quarter, and he even ran one read-option keeper in the red zone, although he could barely Frankenstein his way back to the line of scrimmage, let alone the end zone. Let's be clear: Chip Kelly likes running the ball, and the Week 6 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be way more difficult than the Jints were. Still, Foles isn't an awful desperation option in one of the league's fastest-paced offenses.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers (1.2 percent): Allen was a favorite of mine coming out of Cal this spring, and I was disappointed to see him fall in April's draft; I had him rated as my No. 2 rookie wideout coming out of the combine, but a knee injury and speed concerns saw him plummet to the third round. Injuries to Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd have landed Allen alongside Vincent Brown in the starting lineup, and he has logged 11 catches for 195 yards and a TD over the past two games. Mike McCoy's offense seems more invested in using Antonio Gates, Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal in the middle of the field, which could lead to inconsistent production from the outside men. But when the Chargers have to play catch-up, as they did in Week 5 against the Raiders, Allen and Brown can produce.

Austin Pettis, WR, Rams (1.2 percent): Tavon Austin has been Sam Bradford's most-targeted and most-red-zone-targeted receiver so far in '13, but Austin played only 23 snaps Sunday (although he did see six targets) and has caught only 23 of his 40 targets, with an NFL-worst six drops. Pettis has found the end zone four times, including twice against the Jags last week, although he has yet to eclipse 78 yards receiving in a game this year. If you watch the Rams closely, you know Pettis is the first man Bradford looks at when he really needs a play. There are too many mouths to feed and the blocking, play calling and QB play in St. Louis are all too crummy for any of these guys to be startable in a 10-team league (and that includes Chris Givens and Jared Cook). But if I'm in a deeper league, I don't mind giving up a bench spot to Pettis.

Da'Rel Scott, RB, Giants (0.9 percent): As of this writing, it was unclear whether David Wilson (neck injury) would be able to play in Thursday night's game against the Chicago Bears. But I'm not counting on it, especially given that the Giants re-signed Scott on Monday evening. We're likely to see some kind of awful platoon between Scott and utterly cooked Brandon Jacobs. Although that almost assuredly won't go well, I feel it's my civic duty to alert the most desperate owners among us. Scott was on the "deep" list early this season but was removed after New York released him.

Ted Ginn, WR, Carolina Panthers (7.3 percent): Are you about done waiting for Brandon LaFell to turn into a consistent No. 2 wideout? So are the Panthers. LaFell had another mind-numbing mental error in Week 5, a drop on fourth-and-1 on the Arizona Cardinals' 15. It's not as though Ginn -- a slight speedster who's never been a reliable fantasy player -- is a candidate to play flanker for Cam Newton, but at least when they ask him to run straight down the field and catch the ball, he does it. He has caught only 11 passes in four games, but he has made gains of 32, 21, 47 and 40 yards, two of which went for TDs. As wild-flier acquisitions go, against a scuffling Vikings secondary, Ginn is decent.

Josh Freeman, QB, Vikings (4.0 percent): I'm almost completely alone in my belief that Freeman is going to be a good starting NFL QB again someday. (I'm not even sure the Vikings believe it.) The thing is, I've seen Freeman be exactly the player he should be: smart with the ball, athletic in the pocket and capable of making any throw. It's clear there's something wrong with the kid's noggin. There's too much smoke not to believe he was a problem child in Tampa. And I'm not sold Leslie Frazier is the coach who's going to shake Freeman awake. But Minny spent $3 million to sign Freeman, Christian Ponder is hurt and Matt Cassel is Matt Cassel. (Cassel will start in Week 6.) I've heard some folks lump Freeman into the Ponder category, but Ponder is his own particular kind of milquetoast awful. Freeman is a wild man. Should the Vikes rein him in, he could turn his career around.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders (32.5 percent); Mike Goodson, RB, Jets (2.5 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (6.3 percent); Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints (0.6 percent); Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants (1.4 percent); Donnie Avery, WR, Chiefs (11.0 percent); Robert Woods, WR, Bills (10.3 percent); Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings (4.3 percent); Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins (28.2 percent); Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions (34.3 percent).

HacheMan · Oct 8, 2013

[h=1]Tough fantasy matchups ahead[/h][h=3]Lacy among those with hardest schedules over the next four weeks[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

Last week's Fantasy Foresight article covered players with highly favorable matchups over the next four weeks.
For this week's piece, the tables will be turned to take a look at five players who have highly unfavorable matchups (designated by a red matchup rating) over the next four weeks.
[h=3]Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers[/h]
Injuries are a big part of why Lacy has produced just 21 fantasy points this season. His improved health has led fantasy owners to hope he can take more steps toward becoming a true RB2, but his schedule will place a pretty hefty barrier in the way.

<CENTER>Lacy</CENTER>

The Packers are due to face three red-rated run defenses from Weeks 6-9 (Baltimore, Cleveland and Chicago) and also face a Minnesota defense that has allowed 100 or more rushing yards to running backs in only one of their four games this year. Lacy's schedule gets somewhat easier after this stretch, but he still faces Minnesota, Dallas (ranked fourth in the league in rush yards allowed per game) and Chicago again, so the opponent docket does him few favors. This means Lacy's fantasy owners should strongly consider trading him for a running back with comparable value and a more favorable schedule.
<OFFER><CENTER>

</CENTER>[h=3]Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins[/h]
Morris isn't having a bad season, but his scoring pace (39 points in four games) is more like an RB2 rather than the RB1 his No. 9 ranking in running back ADP placed him at expectation-wise.

<CENTER>Morris</CENTER>
Those expectations aren't likely to be better given that Washington's schedule has Morris facing red-rated run defenses in Weeks 6 (Dallas), 7 (Chicago) and 8 (Denver). Morris' matchups do get much easier down the stretch, as he has just two red-rated defenses from Weeks 10-17. This means teams that can weather the Weeks 6-9 matchup storm should keep Morris around, but teams that aren't in a position to deal with that type of situation should consider dealing him.
<CENTER>

</CENTER>[h=3]Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, New England Patriots[/h]
Thompkins' ownership rate shot up to 84.7 percent because of his 34 total points scored in Weeks 3 and 4, but the one point he scored against Cincinnati in Week 5 has his fantasy owners wondering if he is going to be a long-term wide receiver solution.

<CENTER>Thompkins</CENTER>

The likely answer to that question is "no," as there are many factors pointing toward Thompkins not being a solid starting-caliber wideout. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is averaging just 6.2 yards per target, which is an entirely unacceptable total for a wide receiver. Thompkins also has to deal with the returns of Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski. The addition of Amendola was likely a contributing factor to Thompkins seeing just four targets against the Bengals and having Gronkowski around would make it even harder for Thompkins to claim a larger role in this offense. Add in a schedule that includes matchups against shutdown cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie (Week 7) and Ike Taylor (Week 9), a matchup against Keenan Lewis (who was a red-rated cornerback not very long ago) and a bye in Week 10, and it means Thompkins might not be producing quality fantasy totals for a while.
<CENTER>

</CENTER>[h=3]Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns[/h]
Cameron is coming off of a three-point showing against Buffalo that was easily his worst of his young NFL career and he is now once again working with Brandon Weeden, who was not under center when Cameron racked up a combined 39 points in Weeks 3 and 4.

<CENTER>Cameron</CENTER>

Those factors are concerning enough, but what really gets Cameron on this list is facing Kansas City in Week 8 and Baltimore in Week 9. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year and the Ravens held Cameron to nine points in their Week 2 matchup. Cameron does have the skills to continue the dominant point production he showed in Weeks 3 and 4 but the odds are good he is about to hit some bumps in the road. If a fantasy owner can find someone who still holds Cameron in the same esteem he was held in prior to the Bills game, it might be time to sell high, which could result in getting more trade value for Cameron than the matchups and other factors say he should be worth.
<CENTER>

</CENTER>[h=3]Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens[/h]
Flacco isn't really considered a fantasy starting lineup candidate in anything outside of a really deep or two-quarterback league, but his 51.6 percent ownership rate indicates he is being relied upon as a QB2 in many leagues

<CENTER>Flacco</CENTER>
Scoring 12 or fewer points in four straight weeks (including two games in the single-digit range) should put Flacco's fantasy owners on the verge of moving to upgrade their QB2, but if there is any hesitation to make this move, consider this: Flacco has matchups against defenses that have three or four red-rated defenders (out of five possible defensive coverage players) in Weeks 6, 7 and 9 to go along with a bye in Week 8. This stacked deck will most likely preclude his ability to post quality fantasy point totals in those contests and thus will keep him around the unacceptable production levels of late.
Since Flacco will draw very little (if any) interest on the trade market, fantasy owners should consider waiver upgrades such as Terrelle Pryor (32.5 percent ownership rate, faces Philadelphia and the New York Giants in Weeks 9 and 10), Alex Smith (54.1 percent ownership rate, faces Oakland in Week 6 and Buffalo in Week 9) and even Nick Foles (0.5 percent ownership rate, faces the New York Giants in Week 8 and Oakland in Week 9). Each of these QBs could be a better overall replacement and switching between them could be a really good option in certain leagues.

HacheMan · Oct 9, 2013

Week 6 rankings reaction: Start Gronk?

Eric Karabell

The way the sly New England Patriots do business, it's downright impossible to know whether tight end Rob Gronkowski will really suit up and play in Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints, and perhaps we won't know before the 1 p.m. ET games begin. And even if he does play, are we talking about 15 snaps or 50? Hey, it makes a difference for fantasy owners, especially the ones debating Gronkowski's value versus the potential fantasy replacement, perhaps one of the surprise -- but legitimate -- tight end stars added off free agency early on, such as the Denver Broncos' Julius Thomas and Cleveland Browns' Jordan Cameron.

The fact is that as of Wednesday, Gronkowski still wasn't a full participant in the team's practices as he recovers from arm and back injuries. The Patriots host the Saints in a 4:25 p.m. ET tilt Sunday and, well, let's just say I'd be really careful in relying on Gronkowski for this week. I ranked him in the top 10, but the other fellows in that class are pretty obvious plays, and most will perform in earlier games. You might find it too much of a risk to wait on Gronkowski, a fact that is also reflected in Tristan H. Cockcroft's rankings this week.

Let's face it, Patriots coach Bill Belichick doesn't seem in full control of this situation, either. The Patriots have managed to win four of five games heading into this showdown with Drew Brees and what has become a solid, respectable Saints defense, but they've done so with the worst production from tight end in the NFL. Preseason fave Zach Sudfeld never caught a pass -- that's about the worst August misread in fantasy circles I can recall -- and is now a buried New York Jet. Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan, not quite household names, have five receptions between them as Tom Brady's lone tight end targets.

And the Saints are no joke. They've hardly faced juggernaut offenses, but no team has scored 20 points on them. They're eighth toughest for opposing quarterbacks to accrue fantasy points against -- and Brady is coming off a miserable five-point fantasy performance -- and at tight end, the Saints are permitting 5.6 fantasy points per game, also among the 10 best. A healthy, thriving Gronkowski would be a no-brainer play regardless of foe, but this isn't that situation. I don't see Brady as a surefire play, either, which is why he barely made the staff top 10. I think Gronk ultimately catches a few passes, and if he scores a touchdown, then he's worth it. If not, then he's no better than Greg Olsen, which is pretty telling.

I'm betting many Gronkowski owners -- he's owned in all leagues -- would like to redo their draft when it comes to Gronk and the tight end position. The Patriots already have played five games, more than a third of the fantasy regular season, and that fifth-round fantasy pick could have been spent on something else to help the first month-plus. It's too late to go back now, of course, and I'll stop a bit short of selling on one of the game's most dynamic players today and "taking your best offer," but the fact is this situation worries me. I feel Gronkowski is doomed to disappoint on Sunday -- if he even plays -- and we're unlikely to see the fellow who warranted fantasy MVP consideration in 2011, and thrived the first half of last season. Yeah, I'd consider another tight end Sunday -- perhaps 10 others -- and several other for the rest of this season. There's reward at the end of the risk, but quite a bit of each.

Quarterback: Well, it seems like any player against the New York Giants is a worthy play, so if you have the Chicago Bears' Jay Cutler, this week, it seems like a prime time to use him. I thought about him for my top 10, but then I remember the fact that even the Giants can intercept a pass or two. … I didn't rank the Washington Redskins' Robert Griffin III quite as strongly as others, because I don't think he's leading his team to 51 points. Or even 31 points. He's not Peyton Manning. He's still in my top 10, though. … Important week for Colin Kaepernick. He's not in anyone's top 10 anymore but can alter opinions this week. … One can do worse than use Chad Henne and Mike Glennon this week. Henne will need to throw 50 times to keep up with Manning, and Glennon is at home against Philly. Upset special there.

Running back: Arian Foster is going to eat up the St. Louis Rams this week. One has to think he gets many carries against a bad rush defense. And you'll see Philly's LeSean McCoy didn't fare so well in the rankings. It's on the road, and he did little once Michael Vick left Sunday's game. Still, he's in the top 10, just not the top three. Foster is. … Three of the four rankers went with Fred Jackson over C.J. Spiller, including myself. Very interesting. Still buying low on Spiller? I am, but I am thinking twice about it. … I'm wary about Stevan Ridley, but this isn't like the Gronkowski situation. The word is Ridley is likely to play, and he should get plenty of touches. … I don't see Rashad Jennings as even a decent play at Kansas City this week, even if he plays. I'd prefer Marcel Reece. And nobody ranked Darren McFadden. … Andre Ellington ended up ranked about the same as teammate Rashard Mendenhall, but the bottom line with the Arizona running backs is that neither is a great option in San Francisco.

Wide receiver: Two rankers chose Cecil Shorts over Justin Blackmon, which means two did not. Interesting, eh? I'll say this: I don't think the Jaguars can win in Denver, but I do think both wide receivers can put up top-30 numbers, probably better. Each was ranked in the top 30. … A few weeks ago, Vincent Jackson was a top-10 guy. Now he's barely top 20 against a terrible Philly D. I'm thinking, however, that I've underrated Jackson at 19 this week. … Same with Andre Johnson. The Matt Schaub interceptions aren't charged to him, and I'm thoroughly unimpressed with the Rams' defense. … Liking Keenan Allen this week, as well as Terrance Williams, though there is considerable depth at wide receiver this week, more than normal.

HacheMan · Oct 9, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy hints from next-level data[/h][h=3]Woodhead, Allen and Graham should be targeted[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

The absence of Rob Gronkowski for the New England Patriots, and more specifically, to Tom Brady, has been significant. Through their first five games, the Patriots are averaging just over 10 plays per game in the red zone. However, they have scored only two touchdowns on those 52 plays, which means they are converting less than 4 percent of their red zone snaps into touchdowns. For comparison, last year they converted almost 25 percent (49 of 200) of their red zone snaps into touchdowns.

The return of Gronkowski means the return of Brady's favorite red zone option, which should lead to increased red zone efficiency from the Patriots. Last season, Gronkowski's rate of 1.64 red zone targets per game was second only to Brandon Marshall's in the NFL. Additionally, Gronkowski's blocking proficiency benefits Stevan Ridley & Co. as well. Last season, Ridley averaged 4.5 yards per carry when Gronkowski was on the field, and just 4.1 yards per carry when Gronkowski wasn't.

Don't expect an immediate resurrection in Foxborough. The Patriots draw the New Orleans Saints this week, who feature a rejuvenated defense that allows less than 15 points per game. However, with a healthy Danny Amendola and Gronkowski, the Patriots offense should start to resemble that of the 2012 version, rather than the junior varsity version that they have fielded early this season.

[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 5.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 5[/h]

[h=4]Week 5 Targets Report[/h]

Player	Targets*	RZ
Cecil Shorts	12.5	2
Julio Jones	12.0	4
Victor Cruz	11.8	1
Antonio Brown	11.3	0
A.J. Green	11.3	0
Jimmy Graham	11.3	0
Josh Gordon	11.0	0
Calvin Johnson	10.3	0
DeSean Jackson	10.3	2
Andre Johnson	10.0	0
Julian Edelman	10.0	1
Steve Smith	10.0	2
Tony Gonzalez	10.0	5
Torrey Smith	10.0	1
Pierre Garcon	9.7	0
Randall Cobb	9.7	1
Antonio Gates	9.5	2
Jamaal Charles	9.5	2
Mike Wallace	9.5	4
Vincent Jackson	9.3	0
Alshon Jeffery	9.3	3
Dez Bryant	9.3	3
Brandon Marshall	9.0	2
Danny Amendola	9.0	1
Justin Blackmon	9.0	2
Eric Decker	8.8	1
Robert Woods	8.8	0
E. Sanders	8.7	0
James Jones	8.7	1
Jason Witten	8.5	3
Nate Burleson	8.5	0
Reggie Wayne	8.5	0
Danny Woodhead	8.3	5
D. Thomas	8.3	0
Tavon Austin	8.3	2
Kendall Wright	8.0	0
Nate Washington	8.0	0
Owen Daniels	8.0	0
Rueben Randle	8.0	1
Steve Johnson	8.0	0
*Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games.

• Danny Woodhead leads all running backs with 31 receptions through five games. With Ryan Mathews sidelined because of a concussion, Woodhead will see an increase in playing time. Those in PPR leagues should be starting Woodhead as their second running back most weeks already, but if you haven't been, you've been given a fantasy gift. Make sure you don't miss out on this opportunity.
• As bad as the New York Giants are, I'm going all-in on all three Giants wide receivers. From now until the end of the year, the Giants face only one team (Seattle in Week 15) that isn't among the 13 defenses that give up the most passing yardage. There have been some rough weeks in the first part of the season, but things should get better.
• Keenan Allen has been thrust into a starting role for the San Diego Chargers following the loss of Malcom Floyd. Though Woodhead and Antonio Gates will remain Philip Rivers' primary options in the passing game, look for Allen to overtake Eddie Royal as the season progresses. Allen should be owned in all formats, and under consideration for a starting spot.
• Owen Daniels' eight targets per game over the past four weeks are notable, especially because of an injury that will sideline him for the next month or so. Garrett Graham steps in for Daniels, and is worthy of a roster spot immediately. The only game in which Graham failed to receive at least five targets was Week 3 against the Ravens, a game where he was questionable to play because of a groin/hip injury. Given the Texans' offensive system, the starting TE is a very valuable commodity.
• The return of Amendola didn't appear to affect Julian Edelman's chances as much as some had expected, as Edelman was still targeted seven times against the Cincinnati Bengals. With Gronkowski likely to return Sunday, Edelman can expect to become the third option sooner than later. Kenbrell Thompkins is another story. After averaging almost 10 targets per game in the first four weeks, Thompkins saw only five targets Sunday. If you own Thompkins, it's recommended that you look to trade him before this week's game.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were 10 NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each. They were: Russell Wilson (5), Michael Vick (4), Marshawn Lynch (4), Knowshon Moreno (4), Arian Foster (4), Trent Richardson (3), Maurice Jones-Drew (3), Jamaal Charles (3), Frank Gore (3) and Andre Ellington (3).
Meanwhile, there were 14 players (up from four last week) with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer. They were Willis McGahee (7), Jacquizz Rodgers (3), Jackie Battle (3), Anthony Dixon (3), Peyton Manning (2), Sam Bradford (2), Ray Rice (2), LeSean McCoy (2), Moreno (2), Fred Jackson (2), Gore (2), DeMarco Murray (2), Woodhead (2) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2). Of this group, only Battle and Woodhead failed to score on at least one of these attempts.
Manning's inclusion in the second group is a pure anomaly. For those who didn't watch the game, Manning closed the game out with three kneel downs inside the 10 before the Denver Broncos kicked the game-winning field goal. (He also scored on a 1-yard run in the second quarter.)
McGahee's seven carries inside this area led to a total of minus-2 yards, but he did manage to score a touchdown on his fifth attempt. To say that the Cleveland Browns had no faith in Brandon Weeden would be a fair statement based on the play selection.
Anyone who thinks the zone-read option is dead should look at how well the Philadelphia Eagles are executing it right now. The Eagles offense is first in the league in rushing yards, with the Seattle Seahawks, who also utilize the zone-read option frequently, coming in second. That being said, the loss of Vick to a hamstring pull will affect the Eagles' rushing production significantly.
There are five players in the league who have at least four carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer this year who do not have multiple touchdowns on those chances. While each of these players has one touchdown, check out their total opportunities and yardage totals on those carries:
• Willis McGahee: 8 carries, minus-3 yards
• Jackie Battle: 7 carries, 7 yards
• Jacquizz Rodgers: 5 carries, 2 yards
• Maurice Jones-Drew: 4 carries, minus-4 yards
• Arian Foster: 4 carries, 1 yard
Those five players average 0.1 yards per carry in those situations. All other players with at least four carries are averaging 1.6 yards per carry in that area of the field.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed so far this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play where the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked and all other plays are deemed as a rush.

[h=4]Red Zone Play Calling Chart[/h]

Team	Snaps	Pass	Rush
Atlanta Falcons	70	69%	31%
Denver Broncos	58	55%	45%
San Diego Chargers	53	72%	28%
New England Patriots	52	58%	42%
Green Bay Packers	49	57%	43%
Tennessee Titans	49	41%	59%
St. Louis Rams	48	67%	33%
Chicago Bears	47	68%	32%
Kansas City Chiefs	47	49%	51%
Detroit Lions	46	61%	39%
Philadelphia Eagles	45	49%	51%
Cleveland Browns	45	58%	42%
Dallas Cowboys	44	61%	39%
Baltimore Ravens	44	59%	41%
New Orleans Saints	44	64%	36%
San Francisco 49ers	41	27%	73%
Seattle Seahawks	39	44%	56%
Indianapolis Colts	37	46%	54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	37	73%	27%
Buffalo Bills	36	31%	69%
Houston Texans	35	63%	37%
Oakland Raiders	35	54%	46%
Carolina Panthers	35	46%	54%
Minnesota Vikings	34	47%	53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	32	75%	25%
Cincinnati Bengals	30	37%	63%
New York Giants	30	67%	33%
Miami Dolphins	28	57%	43%
Washington Redskins	28	75%	25%
Arizona Cardinals	27	48%	52%
New York Jets	26	54%	46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	67%	33%

HacheMan · Oct 9, 2013

[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Willis McGahee, Jason Witten among players getting good opportunities[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Five weeks into the 2013 season, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).

If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.

<OFFER></OFFER>

[h=3]Rushing[/h]

[h=4]Rushing OTD Leaders After Week 5[/h]

Rk	Rusher	Att	TD	2013 OTD	Week 5 OTD
1	Willis McGahee	49	1	4.2	3.4
2	Jamaal Charles	92	3	3.3	0.8
3	DeMarco Murray	84	2	3.2	0.8
4	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	70	3	3.1	1.2
5	Jackie Battle	35	1	2.9	1.4
6	Marshawn Lynch	96	3	2.7	0.2
7	Frank Gore	78	3	2.7	1.3
8	Arian Foster	97	1	2.7	0.1
9	Jacquizz Rodgers	52	2	2.3	1.3
10	Adrian Peterson	92	5	2.3	0.0
11	Darren McFadden	51	2	2.1	0.0
12	Anthony Dixon	10	2	2.1	1.2
13	Rashard Mendenhall	69	2	2.1	1.0
14	Knowshon Moreno	65	4	2.1	1.2
15	Bernard Pierce	67	2	2.0	0.0
16	Trent Richardson	82	2	2.0	0.1
17	Fred Jackson	65	4	2.0	1.1
18	LeSean McCoy	98	3	2.0	1.0
19	Ahmad Bradshaw	41	2	1.9	0.0
20	Matt Forte	81	3	1.9	0.1
21	Ray Rice	57	3	1.9	1.0
22	Maurice Jones-Drew	74	1	1.8	0.1
23	Michael Bush	18	1	1.7	0.0
24	Ronnie Brown	21	1	1.7	0.5
25	Joique Bell	46	3	1.5	0.0
26	Le'Veon Bell	16	2	1.5	0.0
27	Brandon Jacobs	22	1	1.4	0.1
28	Chris Johnson	94	0	1.4	0.1
29	Daniel Thomas	27	2	1.4	0.0
30	Ronnie Hillman	32	1	1.3	0.5
31	Mark Ingram	17	0	1.3	0.0
32	Reggie Bush	60	1	1.2	0.0
33	Pierre Thomas	48	0	1.2	0.3
34	Rashad Jennings	31	0	1.2	0.2
35	Danny Woodhead	28	0	1.2	0.8
36	LeGarrette Blount	46	1	1.1	0.6
37	Jason Snelling	28	1	1.0	0.3
38	Montee Ball	40	0	1.0	0.4
39	Giovani Bernard	45	2	1.0	0.1
40	David Wilson	44	1	1.0	0.2

In a bizarre turns of events, your rushing OTD leader through five weeks of play is none other than Willis McGahee (4.2). McGahee has appeared in only three games this season, but he's already racked up five carries from the opponent's 1-yard line. No other back has more than three carries from 1 yard out this season (BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Michael Bush and Darren McFadden have three each). In addition, McGahee has one carry from the 2-yard line and a pair from the 3. What's most impressive about McGahee's usage is that a whopping seven of those eight carries came in Week 5. What's most unimpressive is that he's converted just one of 49 carries into a touchdown. At minus-3.2 in differential, no player has underperformed more than the aforementioned McGahee. McGahee doesn't figure to provide much in terms of yardage, but it's clear he'll be heavily utilized near the goal line.

With the Titans pulling Chris Johnson (1.4) off the field in goal-line situations (zero carries inside the 5-yard line this year), Jackie Battle (2.9) has jumped to fifth overall in rushing OTD. Of Battle's 35 carries this season, seven have come inside the opponent's 5-yard line, which include a pair of unsuccessful tries from 1 yard out. Battle doesn't have much fantasy value, but this provides optimism for Shonn Greene's flex appeal once he returns from injury. Greene will spell Johnson and replace Battle as Tennessee's goal-line back.

Green-Ellis (3.1) continues to lose reps to rookie Giovani Bernard (1.0), but that hasn't stopped him from racking up scoring opportunities. Green-Ellis has already attempted nine carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Of those 10, three have come from 1 yard out. Green-Ellis has three rushing touchdowns in five games, each coming from within 5 yards of the end zone.

Only McGahee has a higher rushing OTD than Jamaal Charles (3.3) this season. The Chiefs' feature back has handled 76 percent of the team's carries, an absurd 23 percent of the total targets and 92 percent (11 of 12) of team carries from within 10 yards of the end zone. In fact, Charles' three touchdowns have come from distances of 1, 2 and 3 yards out. He's arguably the best player you can own in PPR formats.

No player has outperformed his rushing OTD more than Adrian Peterson (2.3) this season. Peterson has scored five times, which is an NFL-high 2.7 above his OTD. The big boost comes via touchdown sprints of 60 and 78 yards out.

[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Remember that receiving OTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted, not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to properly weight throws into the end zone.

[h=4]Receiving OTD Leaders After Week 5[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	TD	2013 OTD	Week 5 OTD
1	Calvin Johnson	39	4	4.1	0.0
2	Alshon Jeffery	44	2	4.0	1.4
3	Wes Welker	42	7	3.8	0.6
4	Jason Witten	43	3	3.8	1.2
5	A.J. Green	56	3	3.8	0.5
6	Martellus Bennett	35	3	3.8	0.3
7	Tony Gonzalez	44	3	3.6	0.7
8	Dez Bryant	45	6	3.6	1.5
9	Kenbrell Thompkins	43	3	3.5	0.0
10	Larry Fitzgerald	40	3	3.0	0.8
11	Cecil Shorts	61	1	2.9	1.2
12	Michael Floyd	36	0	2.9	0.4
13	Aaron Dobson	29	1	2.8	0.7
14	DeSean Jackson	46	3	2.7	0.5
15	Jimmy Graham	51	6	2.7	0.1
16	Austin Pettis	34	4	2.6	0.7
17	Victor Cruz	52	4	2.6	0.7
18	Pierre Garcon	41	2	2.5	0.0
19	Denarius Moore	32	3	2.5	0.4
20	Jordan Cameron	41	4	2.4	0.4
21	T.Y. Hilton	35	2	2.4	0.4
22	Brandon Marshall	46	3	2.3	0.4
23	Julian Edelman	47	2	2.3	0.4
24	Vernon Davis	23	4	2.3	0.3
25	Julio Jones	57	2	2.3	1.0
26	Reggie Wayne	41	2	2.3	0.2
27	Harry Douglas	25	0	2.3	0.8
28	Steve Smith	32	1	2.2	1.0
29	Eddie Royal	26	5	2.2	0.4
30	Coby Fleener	20	2	2.2	0.0
31	Steve Johnson	36	2	2.1	0.0
32	Mike Williams	28	2	2.1	0.0
33	Marlon Brown	23	3	2.0	0.0
34	Sidney Rice	24	2	2.0	0.4
35	Antonio Gates	40	2	2.0	0.7
36	Demaryius Thomas	43	4	2.0	0.2
37	Randall Cobb	34	2	2.0	0.5
38	Torrey Smith	49	1	1.9	0.1
39	Antonio Brown	39	2	1.9	0.0
40	Delanie Walker	24	2	1.8	0.2

Alshon Jeffery (4.0) has scored on only two (or 4.5 percent) of his 44 targets this season. As if that isn't enough reason to expect regression (which is a good thing, in this case), consider that he now sits second overall in receiving OTD in 2013. Jeffery has seen an NFL-high eight end zone targets -- no surprise considering his 6-foot-3, 216-pound frame -- but has converted only twice. En route to a breakout sophomore season, Jeffery makes for a strong WR3 going forward.

Dez Bryant (3.6) was Week 5's big winner, adding a league-high 1.5 to his receiving OTD. Of Bryant's 10 targets this past Sunday, four came while he was in the end zone. Fantasy's top-scoring wide receiver through five weeks was able to haul in two of those targets for scores. Bryant has proven dominant inside the confines of the end zone this season, catching five of seven end zone looks.

Witten (3.8) has been a target monster for years, but often struggles to find paydirt. Last season, for example, he was targeted only eight times while in the end zone and converted three -- his only touchdowns on the year. In 2013, however, Witten has been a favorite target of Tony Romo near the end zone. Witten has already matched both of those numbers in five games, seeing eight end zone targets and converting three. On pace for around 11 touchdowns, Witten sits fourth overall in receiving OTD.

Of the top 50 players in receiving OTD, only two have yet to score a touchdown this season. One is a guy we've highlighted here before: Michael Floyd (2.9). Floyd is 0-for-4 on end zone targets this season. In Week 5, he failed to convert when targeted at the opponent's 1-yard line.

The other is Harry Douglas (2.3). The Falcons' primary slot man checks in at just 6-foot, 183 pounds, but has been forced into additional work, including targets near the goal line, with Roddy White struggling with injuries. This has led to three end zone targets and two more from 1 yard out. With reports that Julio Jones' season is over, Douglas is a worthwhile target on waivers this week.

No player has underperformed his receiving OTD more than Floyd and no player has outperformed it more than Julius Thomas. Despite scoring six times in five games, Thomas has yet to be targeted in the end zone. That's quite the incredible feat. Thomas' scores have come on catch-and-runs from 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 13 yards out.

HacheMan · Oct 9, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst Week 6 matchups[/h][h=3]Matt Ryan still a top-tier QB, but his other receivers have value, too[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

How do you slow down the NFL's best wide receiver? Apparently injury is the only way, as it appears Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones might be out for the season after suffering a foot injury Monday night. Jones is leading the league with 41 receptions and is second with 580 yards.
The reeling Falcons (1-4) already have been dealing with an injury to running back Steven Jackson and wide receiver Roddy White has not been himself all year thanks to a high ankle sprain and now a hamstring injury. The bye week comes at a good time for Atlanta, but this situation does present a lot of fantasy questions for what was expected to be an elite offense. And it gives fantasy owners a preview period on how they could possibly compensate.
Without Jones and with an ailing White, will the team look to hand off the ball more to Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling? Atlanta's 97 carries rank just 29th in the league, so that does not seem too likely. Getting Jackson back could be a boost to the running game.
Matt Ryan leads all quarterbacks in pass attempts (218) and completions (151). Ryan is on pace for more than 30 touchdowns and 5,200 yards, but losing one of the best receiving talents in the league has to significantly bring those down.
However, it's not as though Ryan will be struggling to throw for 150 yards every week. The production has to be picked up somewhere, which obviously can mean more passes to Tony Gonzalez, but what about Harry Douglas as a sleeper? He's owned in just 2.1 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues (as of Tuesday), yet he's on pace for 701 receiving yards.
Without Jones, that number should only go up. So if you are hunting the waiver wire for a third wide receiver or flex play, jump on Douglas now while keeping in mind Atlanta is on the bye week.
<OFFER>Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 6:
[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	+4
QB	HOU	Matt Schaub	+4
QB	BAL	Joe Flacco	+3
RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	+3
RB	SD	Danny Woodhead	+2
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	+2
RB	SD	Ryan Mathews	+2
WR	JAC	Justin Blackmon	+2
QB	DAL	Tony Romo	+1
WR	BAL	Torrey Smith	+1
RB	DAL	DeMarco Murray	+1
RB	TB	Doug Martin	+1
QB	KC	Alex Smith	+1
WR	IND	Reggie Wayne	+1
WR	HOU	Andre Johnson	+1
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin III	+1
RB	NE	LeGarrette Blount	+1
WR	IND	T.Y. Hilton	+1
RB	IND	Trent Richardson	+1
WR	HOU	DeAndre Hopkins	+1
RB	NYJ	Bilal Powell	+1
TE	IND	Coby Fleener	+1
WR	CHI	Alshon Jeffery	+1
WR	DEN	Eric Decker	+1

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Matt Schaub (plus-4 points)
Yes, Schaub is the first quarterback to throw a pick-six in four consecutive games and there is no guarantee he is still the starting quarterback of the Houston Texans. However, if he cannot get right in a home game against St. Louis' 29th-ranked pass defense, then that should be the last straw for him. Even Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars scored 20 points on the Rams. Keep in mind during his struggles that Schaub played against a brutal schedule of Tennessee, at Baltimore, Seattle and at San Francisco. The Rams should offer some relief this week.
Tony Romo (plus-1 point)
Please, let's just forget about Sunday's interception for a moment. Romo passed for 506 yards and five touchdowns. He had three receivers go over 120 yards and that's with Miles Austin inactive. Rookie Terrance Williams has come on as the latest big-play threat in Dallas. This passing game is loaded and Romo gets Washington's miserable pass defense (ranked 25th thanks in part to Matt Flynn's inability to read defenses). He should have another big game.
Terrelle Pryor (minus-4 points)
Recent expectations were the Raiders would need a new quarterback in the 2014 draft, but Pryor has been impressive this season. However, the Chiefs have the No. 1 pass defense in the league and are at home this week. If Michael Vick, Romo and Eli Manning couldn't solve this defense, Pryor, making his sixth NFL start behind a weak supporting cast, should have a rough time as well. The Chiefs defense leads the league with 21 sacks.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Knowshon Moreno (plus-3 points)
Everyone knows about Peyton Manning and his four receivers in Denver, but Moreno ranks sixth in fantasy points among running backs and has played very well. This week he gets Jacksonville's 31st-ranked run defense. Given the four-touchdown spread, there's a good chance the Broncos have a lot of rushing attempts in this one as they play with the lead. This could be Moreno's biggest game yet.
Ryan Mathews (plus-2 points) and Danny Woodhead (plus-2 points)
The San Diego backfield has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but the projection likes them this week as the Chargers are at home and the Colts still rank 28th in run defense. It's really the pass defense (No. 7) that has stepped up in Indianapolis. Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore had little trouble running on them, but those were not the most accurate days by their quarterbacks. Mathews suffered a concussion Sunday night in Oakland so he is questionable to play. If he's out, that just makes Woodhead an even better play, especially in a PPR league.
Le'Veon Bell (minus-3 points)
It was a solid debut for the rookie in London with two touchdowns, but the offensive line is still a mess in Pittsburgh. Now they come off the bye to play the Jets and the No. 1 run defense in the league. The Jets already have shut down Doug Martin (24 carries for 65 yards), Chris Johnson (15 carries for 21 yards) and Stevan Ridley (16 carries for 40 yards). Bell will have better days, but the mismatch in the trenches in this one makes him an unfavorable play in Week 6.
[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	NE	Tom Brady	-4
QB	OAK	Terrelle Pryor	-4
RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	-3
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	-3
RB	PIT	Le'Veon Bell	-3
QB	TEN	Ryan Fitzpatrick	-3
RB	SF	Frank Gore	-2
QB	SD	Philip Rivers	-2
QB	PHI	Nick Foles	-2
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	-2
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	-1
QB	STL	Sam Bradford	-1
RB	GB	Johnathan Franklin	-1
RB	GB	James Starks	-1
RB	BUF	Fred Jackson	-1
RB	JAC	Maurice Jones-Drew	-1
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	-1
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	-1
RB	TEN	Chris Johnson	-1
RB	CIN	Giovani Bernard	-1
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	-1
RB	BAL	Bernard Pierce	-1
WR	PHI	DeSean Jackson	-1

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Justin Blackmon (plus-2 points)
Welcome back, Justin Blackmon. The suspended receiver returned last week and quickly reminded us of his talent with a 67-yard touchdown catch. Pick him up if he's available. There are two things favorable about this matchup: Chad Henne will start instead of Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars will be throwing a ton against a banged-up defense as they play from behind. If you're a Matt Ryan owner, this also makes Henne a reasonable option as your Week 6 starter. Even if a touchdown is thrown when you're behind 42-7, it counts just the same in fantasy.

DeSean Jackson (minus-1 point)
Vick had a good connection early this year with Jackson, but Nick Foles will start in Tampa this week. That might not be a huge problem, but Darrelle Revis often is problematic for young quarterbacks as he shadows the best receivers. Lower your expectations here.

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
Coby Fleener (plus-1 point)
The projection system really loves all the skill players on the Colts this week as the Chargers rank 32nd against the pass and 30th against the run. After a big game by T.Y. Hilton, the Chargers will surely try to take him away, meaning Andrew Luck can focus on his tight end in San Diego. Trent Richardson might even have his best game of the season.

[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 6 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis. At this point we almost need a weekly "Projections for Denver Broncos" table as we welcome Julius Thomas to the elite party.
[h=4]Week 6 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	+2	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	+1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	0	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	+1
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	0	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	+1
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	-2	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	+1
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	0
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	0	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	+1
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	0	TE	SD	Antonio Gates	0
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	0	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	0
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	-2	TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	0

HacheMan · Oct 10, 2013

The Rules of Negotiation

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The email came in at 1:04 p.m. ET.

His wide receiver for my running back. Do I want to do that?

I get out of my meeting at 1:20 and check my email. I, of course, blow past any actual work emails to the one about a fantasy football trade. It's a firm offer and am I interested?

You're damn right I'm interested. "I'll do that deal," I write back. It is now 1:21 p.m.; 17 minutes have elapsed since I received the offer.

He emails back about five minutes after that. "Sorry. I already dealt him."

Wait, what?

I mentioned this on my Facebook page and a few hours later, more than 700 of you had weighed in. Many agreed with me, but not all. "You snooze you lose Berry." "Don't be bitter." "What's the big deal?"

So I will tell what the big deal is. A firm offer means, you know, firm. As in, yours to accept or reject. If I can accept the deal and the deal does not go through, then it was not a firm offer, now was it class? If the player is being offered around the league, then it is a contingent offer. It is contingent on the trader not getting another offer he or she likes better, for example.

But the fact that some people on my Facebook page didn't realize the significance of the term, or worse, understood it but just didn't agree with it, let me know we have a real problem here. There is no guide to fantasy etiquette. There needs to be a set list of rules on how we act and behave in a fantasy league. It's the only thing separating us from animals. Well, that and a good Wi-Fi connection.

So here, now, is the official guide to fantasy football trade etiquette.

1. Be clear. Be crystal clear. Offering up a player to multiple teams is fine as long as you are clear about that. "Hey, any interest in Stevan Ridley for Maurice Jones-Drew? FYI, talking to some other teams about MJD" is a perfectly legitimate email. As is a group email saying MJD is on the block. If you are not sure you want to do the deal, make that clear. "Just thinking out loud here, not sure I'd do it, but if I offered it, would you do Ridley for MJD?" Also fine. Ridley's owner understands you're just talking. But if you say, "Wanna trade MJD for Ridley?" or something similar, well, then that's a firm offer and you need to give the other person a reasonable amount of time to respond.

Unless it's indicated up front that you are talking to other people, a negotiation should be between two teams and only two teams. Work it out or don't, but you owe it to that person (and to the negotiation) to not go outside the talks until it's resolved one way or the other. Think of it this way. You can date a person who has multiple partners or you can date someone in an exclusive relationship. Both are fine, but if one person thinks it's exclusive and the other is sleeping with everyone in town, you've got a problem. And probably a disease or something.

2. Your word should mean something. If you negotiate in good faith over text, email or on the phone and then say, "OK, done deal, offer it on the site," then you've got to accept the offer when it shows up. I don't care if you got a better offer an hour later. Or you found out the guy you're trading is now the starter instead of half of a committee. You agreed to a deal. It's done. The Web part is just the paperwork.

3. Take no for an answer. If you offer a trade to a league member and they say no, you are allowed one generic follow-up. "Well, I am still interested in so and so. Is there anyone on my team who interests you or could I put together another offer?" If the answer is still no, then that's it. Leave it alone. The only person who likes begging less than my editor when I get a joke rejected is another person in your fantasy league.

4. Respond. You don't have to do the deal you've been offered. You don't even have to counter if you're not into it. But you need to respond, even if it's with a simple yes or no. Are you in this league or not? Oh, you are? Then respond like a normal human being. Or as you would if this were a work email. Because let's face it. Your league is much more important than work.

5. Veto the veto. You've heard me say this before, but until this miscarriage of justice is abolished, you're going to keep hearing it. Unless you can prove actual collusion, no trade should ever be vetoed. It is not your job to manage someone's team for them. Everyone should be allowed to manage their own team their own way. Even if you don't agree with it. Even if it's badly. You don't think he got nearly enough for his star tight end? So what? Not your team, not your tight end. The guy dealing him thought he got a good deal, that's all that matters. There's a special level of hell reserved for the people who veto just because it's a deal that didn't involve them or because "it's part of their strategy." That's not strategy, it's being a jerk. Win on the virtual field, not in some technocratic loophole. The art of negotiation is a skill in fantasy and is part of the game. A big part.

6. Be human. Remember we play this game for fun. I got a note yesterday from Matt Boyd, the editor of my book "Fantasy Life," -- or as I like to call it "My New York Times Best-Selling Book Fantasy Life Which Makes A Great Columbus Day Gift" -- who asked my opinion on a trade that went through in his league. On Monday, a guy offers up Julian Edelman and Bilal Powell for Julio Jones. Tuesday, the news of Jones' injury breaks. And the Julio owner accepts the offer ... two hours after the news broke.

Now, my ruling on this is that the guy getting Julio is out of luck. It's not as though he didn't know Jones was banged up and clearly he was trying to buy low. He had two hours when the news broke to rescind the trade, he didn't, them's the breaks. But, I added ... from a human being standpoint, I thought it was a crappy thing to do. The second owner knows Julio is done for the year and accepts anyway. You know in your heart that no one is trading for a guy who is out for the year. And as I said, ultimately, this game should be fun. What fun is getting screwed by your friend? Stop with the damaged goods trades or being duplicitous. As my late, great Uncle Lester would like to say, a good deal is a deal where both sides win. I suggested they split the difference and either Edelman or Powell goes back, but the point is, be a rational human being above a cutthroat fantasy owner.

Repeat after me. We play for fun. With our friends. Friends we will want to trade with in the future. After I was told the firm deal that had been offered was now off the table, I sent a gentle rebuke.

"Dude!" I wrote him, "Gotta give me more than 15 minutes to accept an offer. Or at least give me a heads up that you're talking with others. Come on, man!"

He quickly responded. "Sorry. Bad GM etiquette on my part. I was just shooting from the hip a bit panicked."

To which I replied ... "No worries. I'll live. By the way, you mind if I write about this?"

He had no issue and here we are. He and I will trade again in the future and we're good. It really comes back to the golden rule, when you think about it. Do unto others as you would have them do to you. You wouldn't want a negotiation pulled from under you. You wouldn't want someone else to abuse the waiver wire, picking up guys and waiving them so no one else can get them. You wouldn't want to chase someone down for dues. You don't want to play with people who forget to set their lineup every week, and you wouldn't want someone to say something on a message board, Facebook or Twitter that they wouldn't say to someone's face.

So, you know ... just be people. Is that so hard?

Time now for this week's Love/Hate. Usual caveats apply, this is not a start-sit column. This is about players I expect to exceed or fall short of expectations. If you want my opinion on specific this payer versus that player, check my rankings, which get updated all the way up to Saturday night. Then follow me on Twitter and watch "Fantasy Football Now," as news changes Sunday morning and I can't update ranks while I am on TV. Do all that and then make your own decision; it's your team and I can't tell the future.
Big shoutout and thanks as always to Zach Rodgers and the gang at ESPN Stats & Information for their contributions to this column, and away we go.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love for Week 6[/h]Tony Romo, Cowboys and Robert Griffin III, Washington: Adding them together because they are on this list for the same, if overly simplistic reason: Two bad pass defenses and two good quarterbacks makes for fantasy goodness. Last four versus Washington, Romo has averaged over 300 yards and two scores. RG III averaged 22 points a game against the Cowboys last year and they've had two weeks to prepare for this game. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it isn't true.

Jay Cutler, Bears: Nineteen. N-n-n-nineteen long weeks, Jay Cutler failed to throw for over 300 yards, dating back (ding!) to Week 1 of the 2012 season. But now ... 300 yards in back-to-back games, the emergence of Alshon Jeffery and the New York Giants are coming to town. I used to call them the New York Football Giants, but that no longer seems appropriate because, I don't know what they're doing, but it ain't football. Second-most passing touchdowns allowed, third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and seven members of their defense showed up on the injury report Wednesday night. I like Cutler's chances at a 300-yard game for the third week in a row.

Andrew Luck, Colts: I've been down on Luck as a fantasy quarterback this year because, as skilled as he is, the Colts are a power run team and I don't think his fantasy rushing is sustainable. Case in point, he's tied for 19th in passing attempts this year, the same number as Geno Smith. He's throwing a lot less (as I expected and predicted in the preseason), but one thing he is doing this year is being more effective downfield. Luck has completed 44 percent of his passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield after completing 39 percent of such throws last year. And only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning have more touchdowns of 20 or more yards. Meanwhile, only three teams have given up more completions of 20 yards or more than the San Diego Chargers.
If you're desperate: Joe Flacco is traditionally good at home, especially when he has to keep up with a high-scoring team like the Packers. ... With Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and 10 days to prep, I think Brandon Weeden is solid against the Lions' 20th-ranked pass defense.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate for Week 6[/h]
Eli Manning, Giants: Bad offensive line, no run game, short week ... shouldn't even be owned in standard 10-team leagues. He might get some junk-time scoring in this game, but I can't see him finishing as a top-10 play this week.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Since Week 2, he has averaged 139.3 passing yards per game. He's had fewer than 25 yards rushing in four of five games this year. San Francisco has gone back to what it does well: running the football, which is great for them but not for us. Arizona's defense is better than you think and they blitz on the second-most dropbacks in the league. Why is this important, you ask? Kaepernick has completed only 24 percent of his passes under pressure this season, 33rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Also not a top-10 play this week.

Sam Bradford, Rams: Bad matchup with Houston, which is the No. 1 pass defense in the league despite not ever getting to face Matt Schaub. But here's the stat that will make Rams fans tear their hair out, thinking about the fact they traded away the pick that Washington used to draft RG III: Since 2010, only Blaine Gabbert has a lower completion percentage on throws at least 15 yards downfield than Sam Bradford. Under 250 yards in three straight games, I'm not optimistic he breaks the streak Sunday.

Nick Foles, Eagles: I tend not to like going against teams off the bye, especially at home (two weeks to prepare, all that) and for all the dysfunction in Tampa, they actually have the eighth-best scoring defense and a defense that is giving up just over 12 points a game to opposing quarterbacks (and that includes games against the Saints and Patriots). Take out Michael Vick's rushing yards and scores this year and he's the 27th-best fantasy quarterback. Foles will throw more than Vick, but not that much more.

[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 6[/h]
Doug Martin, Buccaneers: This is the week you remember why you drafted him in the first round. Obvious name, but putting him here because he's worth the money in a salary cap or daily format.

Broncos running backs: Yes, Peyton and gang will put up big numbers. But at some point, after they have a 28-point lead or so, probably mid-second quarter, they'll run some. Everyone's going to get a turn here. Knowshon Moreno is obvious, but I bet Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball get some run here as flex plays.

Giovani Bernard, Bengals: Since Week 3, Friend of the Podcast Giovani Bernard has played 112 snaps to BenJarvus Green-Ellis' 73. In addition to being part of the pass game -- the Law Firm isn't -- Bernard has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on rushes outside the tackles this season. The Bills have allowed 5.0 yards per carry on such carries. He's a top-20 play for me this week.

Willis McGahee, Browns: Despite not playing the first two games of the year and being used sparingly in Week 3, Willis McGahee has 13 red zone rushes this season, tied for sixth most in the NFL. Granted, that's because it takes him so many tries to move the ball, but it also shows you that the Browns have nobody else they think can do a better job, so he'll get the lion's share again against Detroit. Well, not the Lions' share: Those will go to Joique Bell and Reggie Bush. But he'll get the Browns' share. Detroit allows 3.3 yards per rush in the red zone, tied for sixth most in the league.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots: Gut call here, but it's easier to run on the Saints than it is to pass on them, Rob Gronkowski being back helps open up the offense (plus he's a good blocker) and I'm guessing that being this close to losing his gig last week motivates him. Flex play with upside this week.

Danny Woodhead, Chargers: Feel as if I've been mentioning this guy every week. I always like football players who are smaller than I am. Anyway, over the past two weeks, Woodhead has played twice as many snaps as any other Chargers running back (Woodhead 75, Ryan Mathews 37, Ronnie Brown 28). Now some of that is because Mathews got hurt, but you think that can't happen again? Here's the other crazy thing: During that span, Woodhead leads the Chargers in red zone carries. You read that right. Carries. At least five receptions in four straight games, it's a nice matchup with Indy, especially given the amount of passing the Chargers do. Still available in 20 percent of leagues.

If you're desperate: Andre Ellington continues to be the best back the Cardinals have, he's got at least three catches per game in his past three, and Arizona will be throwing against San Francisco. ... For those of you in PPR leagues, Pierre Thomas has more receptions (28) so far than Darren Sproles (26). ... With Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings at less than 100 percent, I could see Marcel Reece getting enough work to be decent in deep PPR leagues.

[h=3]Running Backs I hate in Week 6[/h]
Chris Johnson, Titans: Last week, I predicted that Johnson's touchdown drought would end and he made me look good on a broken play, a desperate flip from Ryan Fitzpatrick that he turned into something. That's what Chris Johnson does -- turns nothing into something -- but when I went back to watch this game, I didn't like what I saw outside of the one play. They refuse to give him the ball at the goal line, Fitzpatrick doesn't stretch the field the way Jake Locker does and CJ had little to no room to run. He needs space to be Chris Johnson and they didn't create very much of it for him, I expect that trend to continue, especially at Seattle. Not a top-20 play.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: Not a part of the passing game, so junk time is out and, while everyone is talking about Peyton, the Broncos quietly have the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Now they've also had the sixth-fewest carries against them, a result of them getting big leads and teams needing to throw, but that's going to be the case here too. He's averaging 2.8 yards per carry on the year. Hope you sold last week.

Giants running backs: I mean, maybe Brandon Jacobs lucks into a rushing touchdown, but a time share behind a bad offensive line in a game they'll be trailing on a short week? Bleah. Don't get cute.

Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: Less than 50 rushing yards in three straight; I prefer Andre Ellington.

[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 6

Brandon Marshall, Bears: Alshon Jeffery is legit but so is Marshall's sensitivity. No one knows this better than Jay Cutler, who will make sure to feed his star receiver. Worth noting, however, is that Jeffery has been targeted in the end zone eight times, tied for most among wide receivers. Think both get theirs Thursday night.

Pierre Garcon, Washington: See Griffin III, Robert. Top-10 play this week.

Josh Gordon, Browns: Not worried about Brandon Weeden. Since 2012, when they've played together, Gordon has averaged two targets per game at least 15 yards downfield, including six touchdowns on deep throws in 16 games. And since his return in Week 3, Gordon is tied for the league lead in receptions at least 15 yards downfield. Does this bode well against Detroit? Yes indeedly-doodly. The Lions have allowed 613 yards on such throws, fourth most in the NFL. You can beat them deep, and beat them deep, Josh Gordon will.

Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, Buccaneers: Eagles horrible defense > Mike Glennon's terrible play. They've had a bye week to develop some chemistry so Jackson is a high-end WR2 and Williams a WR3 with upside. The Eagles have allowed the most receptions, yards, touchdowns, fantasy points, illegal downloads and free french fries to opposing wide receivers this season.

Reggie Wayne, Colts: Since 2012, only two receivers have had at least three receptions in every game: Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker. The Chargers have allowed the third-most receptions and fourth-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season. I also like T.Y. Hilton in this game for those reasons.

If you're desperate: I prefer Vincent Brown over Keenan Allen but both should be involved in a high-scoring "Monday Night Football" affair. ... In his past two games, Denarius Moore has averaged over nine targets and 104 yards a game, and he has scored in both. ... Even if Miles Austin plays, they like Terrance Williams in Dallas and against Washington, you should too. ... Speaking of that game, in 14 career games against the Cowboys as a member of Washington, Santana Moss has seven touchdowns and averages over 80 yards a game. ... Worth noting that Michael Floyd has at least six targets in every game this year and secondary wide receivers have had success against the 49ers.

<H3>Wide receivers I hate in Week 6</H3>
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: Basically, he needs a touchdown to have top-20 fantasy value this year. Under 65 yards in the three games this year without a touchdown, I don't love his chances this week on the road at San Francisco, especially given the state of the Cardinals offense. I have him outside my top 20 this week.

Steve Johnson, Bills: It's not that he's banged up, nor is it that his quarterback is named Thad, though neither helps. It's that Johnson lines up mostly in the slot. In fact, 74 percent of his targets and both touchdowns this year have come out of the slot. Bengals have not allowed a touchdown to a slot receiver since Week 1.

Tavon Austin, Rams: Austin has caught 83 percent of his passes out of the slot this season as his 34 slot targets are tied for the second most in the league. Austin leads the league with six drops this season, two more than any other player. The Texans have allowed three slot receptions per game to opposing receivers this season, fewest in the league.

<H3>Tight ends I love in Week 6</H3>
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: If Gronk plays for the Patriots, he plays for you.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: I'm back on Olsen. Look, he leads the Panthers in both receptions and receiving yards and no team has allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year than the Minnesota Vikings.

Garrett Graham, Texans: Two first names or two last names? You decide. While you mull, consider this: No team has targeted their tight ends this season more than the Texans (61). They also run the most two-tight end sets of any team in the NFL and they are tied for third-most tight end red zone targets in the league. No Owen Daniels, and given the issues at quarterback, I expect some checking down and a top-10 day from "two first names" over there. Or did we decide it was last names? Little help, please.

If you're desperate: If he were healthy, Martellus Bennett would be a full-on love. That said, if he's active tonight, I like the match-up against his former team. ... When your quarterback likes to check down and there are no other healthy tight ends out there, you could have a little bit of fantasy value, which is exactly what Sean McGrath has.

<H3>Tight ends I hate in Week 6

Jared Cook, Rams: Last time I put Cook on the hate list he went off, so maybe this will jump-start him. Bad matchup is obvious, but his receptions have dropped each of the past three weeks and he hasn't had more than 45 receiving yards in a game since Week 1. Want to hear something even worse? Since that Week 1 game, Cook has zero red zone targets. Lance Kendricks has three. He's also outscored Cook two touchdowns to zero over the past three.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Has yet to have more than 42 receiving yards in a game, has just one target inside the opponents' 10-yard line and Carolina gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Rudolph should not be owned in 10-team standard leagues. I'd drop him for Garrett Graham in a nanosecond.

Brandon Myers, Giants: Five. Friend of the Podcast Brandon Myers is no friend of Eli's, apparently. Just five total targets over his past two games, he's run a route on just 54 percent of the snaps he has played this year (and targeted on just 20 percent of those routes). Given the problems with the offensive line, he's staying in more and that's no good. Another guy who can be safely dropped in 10-team leagues.

<H3>Defense/special teams I love in Week 6:</H3>
Carolina Panthers: They've scored 31 points the past two games, this is a dominating front seven that should have no trouble with Matt Cassel and a Vikings team that has given up at least 11 fantasy points in three of four games this year. Admittedly, all those were Christian Ponder games and Cassel is going to start this one, but still. It's the third-best scoring defense in the NFL and it's legit.

New York Jets: Only two teams allow more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Steelers, and the Jets are available in almost every league.

If you're desperate: The Cardinals just shut down Cam Newton and you know I'm not high on Kaepernick this week, so I expect this game to be low scoring. ... Detroit is going to be the best offense they've faced so far this year, but it's worth noting that the Browns have scored at least seven points in every game this year.

<H3>Defense/special teams I hate in Week 6</H3>
Green Bay Packers: During the five games Clay Matthews missed last season, the Packers averaged 1.8 sacks per game. In the games Matthews fully played in last season, the Packers averaged 3.5 sacks per game. No Matthews in this one, on the road at a Ravens team that has allowed just five points a game at home to opposing defenses.

Baltimore Ravens: It's not like it's the Packers offense that suffers without Matthews.

There you have it. Week 6 Love/Hate in the books. Good luck this week, but if for some reason it doesn't work out, remember: Fun. Friends. Be a human.

</H3>[/h]

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Rk</center>	Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev.</center>
1	Jimmy Graham	NO	1
2	Jordan Cameron	Cle	3
3	Rob Gronkowski	NE	2
4	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	5
5	Jason Witten	Dal	4
6	Julius Thomas	Den	7
7	Vernon Davis	SF	6
8	Antonio Gates	SD	10
9	Greg Olsen	Car	8
10	Owen Daniels	Hou	11
11	Jared Cook	StL	9
12	Martellus Bennett	Chi	14
13	Coby Fleener	Ind	15
14	Heath Miller	Pit	16
15	Brandon Myers	NYG	12
16	Kyle Rudolph	Min	13
17	Charles Clay	Mia	17
18	Jermichael Finley	GB	18
19	Tyler Eifert	Cin	19
20	Brent Celek	Phi	20
21	Garrett Graham	Hou	--
22	Joseph Fauria	Det	21
23	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	22
24	Dallas Clark	Bal	23
25	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	24
26	Kellen Winslow	NYJ	28
27	Delanie Walker	Ten	25
28	Rob Housler	Ari	27
29	Scott Chandler	Buf	29
30	Zach Miller	Sea	30

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Ovr. Rank</center>	Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos. Rank</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Next 3 Weeks</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Prev. Rank</center>
1	Adrian Peterson	Min	RB1	BYE, Car, @NYG	1
2	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB2	@Ten, Oak, Hou	3
3	LeSean McCoy	Phi	RB3	@NYG, @TB, Dal	2
4	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	RB4	@Ind, Ten, @Ari	4
5	Arian Foster	Hou	RB5	@SF, StL, @KC	6
6	Matt Forte	Chi	RB6	NO, NYG, @Wsh	7
7	Doug Martin	TB	RB7	BYE, Phi, @Atl	5
8	Alfred Morris	Wsh	RB8	BYE, @Dal, Chi	8
9	Reggie Bush	Det	RB9	@GB, @Cle, Cin	17
10	C.J. Spiller	Buf	RB10	@Cle, Cin, @Mia	9
11	Ray Rice	Bal	RB11	@Mia, GB, @Pit	11
12	Trent Richardson	Ind	RB12	Sea, @SD, Den	12
13	Peyton Manning	Den	QB1	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	20
14	Chris Johnson	Ten	RB13	KC, @Sea, SF	10
15	Calvin Johnson	Det	WR1	@GB, @Cle, Cin	14
16	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE1	@Chi, @NE, BYE	15
17	Frank Gore	SF	RB14	Hou, Ari, @Ten	26
18	DeMarco Murray	Dal	RB15	Den, Wsh, @Phi	13
19	Dez Bryant	Dal	WR2	Den, Wsh, @Phi	19
20	Julio Jones	Atl	WR3	NYJ, BYE, TB	25
21	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB2	Det, @Bal, Cle	21
22	Drew Brees	NO	QB3	@Chi, @NE, BYE	22
23	Cam Newton	Car	QB4	@Ari, @Min, StL	23
24	A.J. Green	Cin	WR4	NE, @Buf, @Det	18
25	Demaryius Thomas	Den	WR5	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	28
26	Brandon Marshall	Chi	WR6	NO, NYG, @Wsh	27
27	Wes Welker	Den	WR7	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	31
28	Darren Sproles	NO	RB16	@Chi, @NE, BYE	35
29	DeAngelo Williams	Car	RB17	@Ari, @Min, StL	16
30	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR8	Car, @SF, Sea	29
31	Randall Cobb	GB	WR9	Det, @Bal, Cle	30
32	Matt Ryan	Atl	QB5	NYJ, BYE, TB	32
33	Victor Cruz	NYG	WR10	Phi, @Chi, Min	37
34	Tom Brady	NE	QB6	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	34
35	Jordan Cameron	Cle	TE2	Buf, Det, @GB	58
36	Lamar Miller	Mia	RB18	Bal, BYE, Buf	42
37	Jordy Nelson	GB	WR11	Det, @Bal, Cle	33
38	Andre Johnson	Hou	WR12	@SF, StL, @KC	41
39	Matthew Stafford	Det	QB7	@GB, @Cle, Cin	38
40	Colin Kaepernick	SF	QB8	Hou, Ari, @Ten	40
41	Reggie Wayne	Ind	WR13	Sea, @SD, Den	43
42	Vincent Jackson	TB	WR14	BYE, Phi, @Atl	36
43	Eric Decker	Den	WR15	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	44
44	Marques Colston	NO	WR16	@Chi, @NE, BYE	45
45	Pierre Garcon	Wsh	WR17	BYE, @Dal, Chi	46
46	Le'Veon Bell	Pit	RB19	BYE, @NYJ, Bal	NR
47	Giovani Bernard	Cin	RB20	NE, @Buf, @Det	48
48	Eddie Lacy	GB	RB21	Det, @Bal, Cle	52
49	Darren McFadden	Oak	RB22	SD, @KC, BYE	24
50	Antonio Brown	Pit	WR18	BYE, @NYJ, Bal	57
51	Anquan Boldin	SF	WR19	Hou, Ari, @Ten	54
52	Joique Bell	Det	RB23	@GB, @Cle, Cin	56
53	Steve Smith	Car	WR20	@Ari, @Min, StL	53
54	DeSean Jackson	Phi	WR21	@NYG, @TB, Dal	49
55	Andrew Luck	Ind	QB9	Sea, @SD, Den	66
56	Steven Jackson	Atl	RB24	NYJ, BYE, TB	59
57	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR22	Phi, @Chi, Min	51
58	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE3	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	50
59	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	TE4	NYJ, BYE, TB	72
60	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB25	@StL, @Den, SD	39
61	Jason Witten	Dal	TE5	Den, Wsh, @Phi	62
62	Steve Johnson	Buf	WR23	@Cle, Cin, @Mia	60
63	Knowshon Moreno	Den	RB26	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	78
64	Fred Jackson	Buf	RB27	@Cle, Cin, @Mia	61
65	Torrey Smith	Bal	WR24	@Mia, GB, @Pit	77
66	Mike Wallace	Mia	WR25	Bal, BYE, Buf	64
67	Michael Vick	Phi	QB10	@NYG, @TB, Dal	55
68	Stevan Ridley	NE	RB28	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	63
69	David Wilson	NYG	RB29	Phi, @Chi, Min	67
70	Roddy White	Atl	WR26	NYJ, BYE, TB	65
71	James Jones	GB	WR27	Det, @Bal, Cle	69
72	Tony Romo	Dal	QB11	Den, Wsh, @Phi	93
73	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	QB12	BYE, @Dal, Chi	73
74	Julian Edelman	NE	WR28	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	70
75	Julius Thomas	Den	TE6	@Dal, Jac, @Ind	84
76	Vernon Davis	SF	TE7	Hou, Ari, @Ten	83
77	Cecil Shorts	Jac	WR29	@StL, @Den, SD	74
78	Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR30	@Ten, Oak, Hou	76
79	Danny Amendola	NE	WR31	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	79
80	Antonio Gates	SD	TE8	@Oak, Ind, @Jac	NR
81	Tavon Austin	StL	WR32	Jac, @Hou, @Car	75
82	Greg Olsen	Car	TE9	@Ari, @Min, StL	NR
83	Ahmad Bradshaw	Ind	RB30	Sea, @SD, Den	47
84	Owen Daniels	Hou	TE10	@SF, StL, @KC	NR
85	Ryan Mathews	SD	RB31	@Oak, Ind, @Jac	68
86	Josh Gordon	Cle	WR33	Buf, Det, @GB	82
87	Bilal Powell	NYJ	RB32	@Atl, Pit, NE	90
88	Greg Jennings	Min	WR34	BYE, Car, @NYG	97
89	Bernard Pierce	Bal	RB33	@Mia, GB, @Pit	80
90	Mike Williams	TB	WR35	BYE, Phi, @Atl	91
91	Rashard Mendenhall	Ari	RB34	Car, @SF, Sea	81
92	T.Y. Hilton	Ind	WR36	Sea, @SD, Den	89
93	Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	RB35	NYJ, BYE, TB	99
94	Brian Hartline	Mia	WR37	Bal, BYE, Buf	87
95	Philip Rivers	SD	QB13	@Oak, Ind, @Jac	NR
96	Ben Tate	Hou	RB36	@SF, StL, @KC	85
97	Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	WR38	@Cin, NO, @NYJ	NR
98	DeAndre Hopkins	Hou	WR39	@SF, StL, @KC	95
99	Sidney Rice	Sea	WR40	@Ind, Ten, @Ari	86
100	Alshon Jeffery	Chi	WR41	NO, NYG, @Wsh	NR

	<CENTER>Sample Size (G)</CENTER>	<CENTER>PPG*</CENTER>	<CENTER>Avg. Win Margin</CENTER>	<CENTER>Touches per G</CENTER>	<CENTER>Passing Att/G</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rushing Att/G</CENTER>	<CENTER>Passing TD/Int</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rushing YPC</CENTER>
Thursdays	60	21.1	+6.3	47.1	34.3	27.1	1.18	4.1
All Other Days	1116	22.6	+6.0	48.2	34.7	27.1	1.57	4.3
* Average points per game for one team, not both, in the given contest.

Pos.	<CENTER>Thursdays</CENTER>	<CENTER>Previous Sunday</CENTER>	<CENTER>All Other Games*</CENTER>
QB	11.9	17.1	14.8
RB	16.2	15.1	15.9
WR	18.3	22.7	20.4
TE	4.5	6.7	7.0
K	7.9	6.9	7.9
D/ST	8.6	5.9	6.8
* Players' averages in all games that were not a Thursday game immediately following a Sunday game. For example, though the first game of Week 1 of the 2013 season was on a Thursday, it did not occur four days after the Baltimore Ravens' or Denver Broncos' previous regular-season contests, therefore it is included in this calculation.

Player	<CENTER>Pos.</CENTER>	<CENTER>Year</CENTER>	<CENTER>Week</CENTER>	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Opp.</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>
Corey Dillon	RB	1997	15	Cin	Ten	51
O.J. Simpson	RB	1976	12*	Buf	@Det	39
Jim Braxton	RB	1975	11*	Buf	@StL	37
Brian Westbrook	RB	2008	13*	Phi	Ari	37
Sterling Sharpe	WR	1994	13*	GB	@Dal	36
Eddie George	RB	1999	14	Ten	Oak	36
Randy Moss	WR	1998	13*	Min	@Dal	36
Matt Cassel	QB	2008	11	NE	NYJ	36
Walter Payton	RB	1977	11*	Chi	@Det	35
Emmitt Smith	RB	1994	13*	Dal	GB	34
Barry Sanders	RB	1997	14*	Det	Chi	34
* Thanksgiving Game

Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

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