Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

HacheMan · Oct 22, 2013

[h=1]Top bye-week fantasy fill-ins[/h][h=3]Replacement options for starters who will be off in weeks 10 through 12[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

Last week's Fantasy Foresight featured a bye-week fill-in primer for players on teams that would be off at some point between Week 7 and Week 9.

This week's Fantasy Foresight article will offer that same type of advice for fantasy players with byes in weeks 10-12. It will identify which fantasy starters and flex picks are on a bye and will offer fill-in options ranging from borderline bench candidates who are starting-quality, given favorable matchups, to waiver pickups and long shots who are options in deep leagues.

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[h=3]Week 10[/h]
RB starters or flex picks on bye: Jamaal Charles, Stevan Ridley, Willis McGahee, Chris Ivory

Le'Veon Bell vs. Buffalo: The downside to Bell is that, in his past two starts, he has posted a total of 14 fantasy points. The upside is that he has tallied 16 or more carries in all of his starts, so he is getting close to bell cow territory in that department. The Bills rank 12th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing RBs, but they rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and have allowed opposing runners to gain 100 or more yards in five of seven contests. Look for Bell to add another triple-digit game to that total.
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Andre Ellington vs. Houston: Ellington posted a solid 8.3-yard mark last year in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges a running back's productivity on plays with good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That he did this despite some issues with coordinating his rushing with his blocking illustrates the kind of potential Ellington has. He has posted three games of eight or more fantasy points thus far this season despite seeing a total of 60 rushes and targets combined, so he can produce solid fantasy numbers even when being used as a change-of-pace player. The Houston run defense ranks 26th in rush yards allowed per game and has given up double-digit running back fantasy points in all of its contests thus far. That makes Ellington a high-priority pickup in deep leagues for Week 10.

WR starters or flex picks on bye: Dwayne Bowe, Danny Amendola, Josh Gordon, Kenbrell Thompkins

Alshon Jeffery vs. Detroit: Jeffery has been the ultimate boom/bust fantasy player this year, bouncing from huge games (47 combined points in Weeks 4 and 5) to being bench fodder (four games with five or fewer points). Having a backup quarterback might make fantasy owners think Jeffery will end up in the latter category more often than not for the foreseeable future, but that should not be the case against the Lions. Jeffery is due to line up against cornerback Chris Houston, whose 12.4 yards per attempt (YPA) mark is setting him on track to be one of the worst coverage cornerbacks in the NFL this year. Even a backup passer can beat a defender of this caliber, so look for Jeffery to end up in double-digit fantasy points territory against this matchup.

TE starters on bye: Jordan Cameron, Rob Gronkowski

Charles Clay vs. Tampa Bay: There is something of a fantasy football disconnect with Clay, as he ranks tied for eighth in fantasy points by tight ends (52, the same as Tony Gonzalez) yet is owned in only 43.7 percent of ESPN leagues. The Buccaneers have fared well against tight ends since Week 3, but they really haven't faced many decent tight ends in that time. Clay isn't the best receiving threat on the Dolphins, and therefore likely will be a coverage afterthought for Tampa Bay. That mindset will allow him to post another top-10-TE-caliber performance.

QB starter on bye: Tom Brady

Ryan Tannehill vs. Tampa Bay: Clay won't be the only Dolphins player who should post quality numbers in Week 10. The Bucs' secondary has ample talent but, as is the case with much of their squad, those players have been quite inconsistent this season. Miami's passing game is better than the Philadelphia and Atlanta passing offenses that generated a combined total of 569 yards passing, 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions the past two weeks against the Bucs' defense. Look for Tannehill to be a 15- to 17-point fill-in candidate in Week 10.

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[h=3]Week 11[/h]
RB starters or flex picks on bye: DeMarco Murray, Zac Stacy

Chris Ivory vs. Buffalo: Ivory made the list of "Gruden's Grinders" on "Monday Night Football" because of a physical performance against the Patriots that led to his gaining 104 yards on 34 carries. Ivory's toughness is augmented by some home run ability (he tallied a 14.8 GBYPA with New Orleans last year on a very small sample size), and both of those traits could be showcased in a game against the Bills' aforementioned struggling run defense.

WR starters or flex picks on bye: Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams

Sidney Rice vs. Minnesota: The Seahawks' original plan this year was to bring in Percy Harvin to provide a dangerous short and medium pass threat that, when combined with their powerful ground game, would open up the opportunity for Russell Wilson to throw more deep passes to speedsters such as Rice. That hasn't panned out so far this year because of Harvin's injury, but he is back at practice and could be back in the lineup very soon. If Harvin does make it back to the lineup for this game, the Vikings are going to go all out to keep him in check and make the Seahawks look bad for trading him. That alone could achieve the goal of opening up long passes for Rice, and it makes him a very good upside pick in this game.

TE starter on bye: Jason Witten

Zach Miller vs. Minnesota: Miller isn't a vertical threat, but ESPN Stats & Information tracks him as leading the Seahawks in red zone targets (5). That could be a major plus against a Vikings secondary that has allowed nine red zone touchdown passes (tied for 23rd). He's a long-shot player, but one with upside given this combination.

QB starter on bye: Tony Romo

Russell Wilson vs. Minnesota: The potential addition of Harvin, the downfield presence of Rice and the goal-line potential offered by Miller are compelling enough reasons to start Wilson. Throw in the fact that the Vikings are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and it means this is a week to get Wilson into the starting lineup.

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[h=3]Week 12[/h]
RB starters or flex picks on bye: LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Giovani Bernard

Chris Johnson vs. Oakland: The Raiders' defense started the season with two strong performances against running backs (10 total points allowed versus Indianapolis and Jacksonville), but its numbers have gone south since then. Oakland has allowed 20 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs in three of its past four games. Johnson isn't breaking off big runs the way he did in the past, but he is racking up some big gains through the air (including receptions of 49 and 66 yards in the past three games), so his path to fantasy football starting viability is wider than it was earlier this year, especially against this caliber of matchup.

WR starters or flex picks on bye: DeSean Jackson, Steve Johnson

Mike Williams vs. Detroit: Williams is owned in 90.2 percent of ESPN leagues, and it is almost a certainty that each one of those owners is frustrated at his 29 total fantasy points this year. That frustration might continue to recur in many weeks, but this matchup likely will offer some relief, as Williams is due to face Houston, the aforementioned struggling Lions cornerback.

TE starter or flex pick on bye: Scott Chandler, Tyler Eifert, Brent Celek

Coby Fleener vs. Arizona: One of Fleener's strengths in college was an ability to hit the deep pass. In 2011, he had a ridiculously high 18.4 vertical YPA (which measures productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 22.3 stretch vertical YPA (aerials thrown 20 or more yards). Now that he has been reunited with former offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, this trait is starting to show up in the NFL (as evidenced by his 24.0 vertical yards per reception, which ranks ninth among tight ends, according to ESPN Stats & Info). The Cardinals are dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, and it isn't even close (they are the only team to allow an average of more than 15 points per game). With the loss of Reggie Wayne to a season-ending knee injury, the Colts will need all the help they can get in their passing game. Fleener will benefit from this the rest of the season, and doubly so in this contest.

QB starters on bye: Russell Wilson, Michael Vick, Andy Dalton

Case Keenum or Matt Schaub vs. Jacksonville: The fill-in quarterback pickings are rather slim this week, but this option might not be as bad as it seems at first glance. Keenum did a solid job this past week in filling in for Schaub (13 fantasy points), and the Jaguars' defense has allowed 13 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in all but one game this year.

HacheMan · Oct 23, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy hints from next-level data[/h][h=3]What to expect from Hilton and Heyward-Bey after Wayne injury[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Each week, this column highlights players who receive two or more rush attempts from inside their opponent's 5-yard-line. That data is normally near the bottom of the column, but its placement there doesn't mean it is less valuable than the information that precedes it. In fact, a player's opportunities in that scoring area are generally what separate the elite running backs from the second tier.
Not sold? Take a look at the following statistics:
• 74 percent of all rushing touchdowns attained by the 33 running backs with at least 60 rush attempts this season have come from inside their opponent's 5.
• The top five fantasy running backs (Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno) average almost four touchdowns, year-to-date, from inside their opponent's 5.
• The other 28 running backs with at least 60 carries average just over one touchdown from inside their opponent's 5.
• The top five fantasy running backs convert a smaller percentage of their carries inside the 5 into touchdowns (66 percent) than the other 28 qualifying backs (78 percent).
Only Charles and McCoy would remain among the top five fantasy running backs if they had only managed the league average for touchdowns inside their opponent's 5-yard-line. Typically, statistical outliers have a way of reverting toward the league average. Based on the quality of their offenses, it's certainly possible that the top five continue along their current trajectory. However, if you own one of the top five and have questions about their future value -- such as whether the Chicago Bears will generate as many red zone opportunities in the upcoming weeks without Jay Cutler as they did with him -- use this data to adjust your expectations.

[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all of the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 7.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 7[/h]

[h=4]Week 7 Targets Report[/h]

Player	Targets*	RZ
Rob Gronkowski	17.0	0
Vincent Jackson	15.7	5
Justin Blackmon	12.7	2
Julio Jones	11.5	0
Dez Bryant	11.0	1
Mike Wallace	11.0	0
Calvin Johnson	10.7	1
A.J. Green	10.5	0
Pierre Garcon	10.3	2
Tony Gonzalez	10.3	0
Victor Cruz	10.0	2
Brandon Marshall	9.8	1
Antonio Brown	9.7	0
Owen Daniels	9.5	0
Hakeem Nicks	9.3	2
Alshon Jeffery	9.0	0
Andre Johnson	9.0	0
Antonio Gates	9.0	3
Cecil Shorts	9.0	3
Kendall Wright	9.0	0
Reggie Wayne	9.0	1
Jerome Simpson	8.7	2
Eric Decker	8.5	4
Keenan Allen	8.5	1
Wes Welker	8.5	4
DeSean Jackson	8.3	0
Kris Durham	8.3	3
Greg Jennings	8.0	1
Jamaal Charles	8.0	0
Julian Edelman	8.0	0
T.Y. Hilton	8.0	0
* Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games.

• While you never root for an injury to any player, it's pretty obvious that Reggie Wayne's absence certainly boosts T.Y. Hilton's prospects for the remainder of the season. That being said, don't sleep on Darrius Heyward-Bey, who is available in 96 percent of ESPN.com leagues and will also receive an increase in the number of targets he receives going forward.
• If you haven't figured out who the Lions' No. 2 wide receiver is, it's evident that Kris Durham has seized that role by virtue of his 29 targets in the past three weeks. He should be on everyone's fantasy radar. Right now, he's virtually unowned in ESPN.com leagues.
• DeSean Jackson is averaging 19.8 yards per catch with Michael Vick as the Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback, but just 11.6 yards per catch when Nick Foles is under center. If the Jackson owner in your league soured on him because of his disappearing act in Week 7, make the move now to acquire him below market value.
• Sometimes, getting targets doesn't mean very much. Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings are both getting opportunities, but Josh Freeman has been rushed into the starting quarterback role for Minnesota without a reasonable amount of time to learn the offense, and that certainly showed on Monday night. Expect Freeman to struggle for a couple of weeks, which takes these two mediocre wide receivers and makes them unusable for the near future.
• After completing just two of his first 11 targets to Vincent Jackson, Mike Glennon completed 19 of his next 36 throws to him. While that completion rate still has room for improvement, Glennon is totally locked in on Jackson, which makes him a top-five play at the wide receiver position right now.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were five NFL players (down from eight last week) who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each. They were: Ryan Mathews (4), Josh McCown (3), Charles (3), Alfred Morris (3) and Colin Kaepernick (3).
Meanwhile, there were 13 players (up from 11 last week) with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard-line or closer. They were: Alex Smith (4), Frank Gore (4), Lynch (3), Mike James (3), Mike Tolbert (3), Brandon Bolden (2), Danny Woodhead (2), Fred Jackson (2), Charles (2), Le'Veon Bell (2), Peyton Hillis (2), Roy Helu (2) and Zac Stacy (2). Of this group, only James, Bell and Stacy failed to score on at least one of these attempts.
Apparently Mike Shanahan still hates fantasy owners. After Morris dominated last season, Shanahan's crew is utilizing Helu as the Washington Redskins' every-down back in their hurry-up, or "turbo," offense. This is a serious blow to Morris' value going forward.
Hillis went from unemployed to fantasy fill-in when Brandon Jacobs had a setback in his rehabilitation of a hamstring injury. Hillis' fantasy worthiness is limited to the length of time that Jacobs is out.
Not only is Charles dominating via long runs and scoring touchdowns, he's also performing well as a receiver. Through seven weeks, Charles already has 14 catches that have resulted in gains of 10 yards or more after having just nine such receptions in 15 games last season.
Mathews scored on his only carry inside the 5, which coincidentally was his first carry of the season in this prime scoring area. Woodhead has four such carries (including the two this past week) this season, and has scored just once in those attempts. If Mathews can take ownership of this area, his value would increase for the remainder of the season.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play where the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as a rush.

[h=4]Red Zone Play-calling Chart[/h]

Team	Snaps	Pass	Rush
Denver Broncos	91	56%	44%
Atlanta Falcons	78	67%	33%
New England Patriots	75	48%	52%
San Diego Chargers	73	63%	37%
Kansas City Chiefs	73	44%	56%
St. Louis Rams	67	61%	39%
Baltimore Ravens	66	55%	45%
Chicago Bears	65	60%	40%
Green Bay Packers	65	54%	46%
Cleveland Browns	65	60%	40%
Detroit Lions	63	63%	37%
Philadelphia Eagles	61	48%	52%
Seattle Seahawks	60	45%	55%
San Francisco 49ers	60	28%	72%
Buffalo Bills	59	29%	71%
Carolina Panthers	57	37%	63%
New Orleans Saints	56	64%	36%
Houston Texans	56	55%	45%
Tennessee Titans	56	46%	54%
Dallas Cowboys	55	60%	40%
Jacksonville Jaguars	54	76%	24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	51	69%	31%
Indianapolis Colts	49	51%	49%
Washington Redskins	46	63%	37%
Cincinnati Bengals	43	51%	49%
New York Giants	43	58%	42%
Minnesota Vikings	41	54%	46%
Miami Dolphins	40	55%	45%
Arizona Cardinals	40	60%	40%
New York Jets	39	56%	44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36	67%	33%
Oakland Raiders	35	54%	46%

HacheMan · Oct 23, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst Week 8 matchups[/h][h=3]Start your 49ers this week, but think twice about Gordon and Cameron[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

This past week was one of the toughest in recent memory, with significant injuries to Reggie Wayne, Jay Cutler, Jermichael Finley, Doug Martin and Sam Bradford, just to name a few fantasy-relevant offensive starters. It's true in fantasy football as well as actual football, the "next man up" has to perform.
Two weeks ago, when Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones went down for the season, I suggested grabbing Harry Douglas as soon as possible. With Roddy White also out for Atlanta on Sunday, Douglas exploded for a career-high 149 yards and a touchdown. That will not be the norm, but it's that kind of potential that opens up when injuries arise.
The funny part is that a few Douglas owners asked me for starter advice on Week 7, and I gave starting him little thought, not expecting much against Tampa Bay. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. If a player pops up in a favorable new role with a good quarterback, like Green Bay wide receiver Jarrett Boykin, do not be afraid to go get him. You never know when the next star is ready to emerge from the bench.
Of this week's injuries, Wayne's is most intriguing as you might see the Colts trade for a wide receiver. At the very least, this makes T.Y. Hilton's stock blow up. He already has been a hot topic in regards to how many snaps he gets, but now it will be impossible for the Colts to keep him off the field outside of the occasional breather.
Do not be surprised if Hilton finishes the season averaging over 80 yards per game as the Colts have to somehow fill Wayne's production (71.9 yards per game). This also makes Coby Fleener and Darrius Heyward-Bey more valuable, though it's hard to imagine the latter will ever be worth a roster spot on your fantasy team. The Colts are not as pass-happy as Atlanta, for example.
But if you want to upgrade at wide receiver and actually have a running back to spare, then Hilton would be an excellent trade target right now.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 8. Note that references to defensive rankings for the pass and run are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here.

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[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Colin Kaepernick (plus-3 points)

He still has not completed more than 16 passes in a game since Week 1, but Kaepernick has been warming up as the 49ers have scored 31-plus points in four straight games. He scored his first rushing touchdown of 2013 last week, and now gets the gift that keeps on giving: the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars. By air or ground, the only thing that could stop Kaepernick's domination is Jim Harbaugh calling off the dogs with the huge lead.

[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	PHI	Michael Vick	+5
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	+4
QB	SF	Colin Kaepernick	+3
QB	NYG	Eli Manning	+3
RB	SF	Frank Gore	+3
RB	BUF	Fred Jackson	+2
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	+2
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	+1
TE	SF	Vernon Davis	+1
RB	CLE	Willis McGahee	+1
WR	ARI	Larry Fitzgerald	+1
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin III	+1
WR	SF	Anquan Boldin	+1
RB	NE	Stevan Ridley	+1
QB	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	+1
WR	NYG	Hakeem Nicks	+1
WR	PHI	Riley Cooper	+1
RB	JAC	Maurice Jones-Drew	+1
WR	SEA	Golden Tate	+1
WR	GB	Jordy Nelson	+1
WR	PIT	Antonio Brown	+1

Michael Vick (plus-5 points)

Josh Freeman threw 33 incompletions against the Giants defense in Week 7, but he has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year. Vick, No. 7 in fantasy points per game (22.5) among quarterbacks, had 79 rushing yards against the Giants without even finishing the game (injury) in Week 5. That hamstring injury is the reason he may not even be Sunday's starter, but after the injury to Nick Foles, look for Vick to try to return this week for a very favorable matchup against the No. 30 pass defense.

Drew Brees (minus-6 points)

This negative projection is based on the matchup against Buffalo's No. 4 pass defense. Joe Flacco threw five interceptions, Tom Brady averaged 5.54 yards per attempt and Ryan Tannehill just had three turnovers in Week 7 against the Bills, who have received great play from Mario Williams (10.5 sacks). The difference is that Brees is playing better than all of those quarterbacks and he's at home after the bye week and a tough loss in New England. Look for him to rebound with a nice game, but this might be the "Lower Your Expectations" pick of the week.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Eddie Lacy (plus-2 points)

The Packers actually have a running game again, as the rookie has carried at least 22 times in three consecutive games. With so few of these backs out there, he's a great one to have. This week, he gets a dreadful Minnesota defense (No. 28 against the run).

Adrian Peterson (minus-3 points)

It has been a rough season for Peterson. After 10 carries against Carolina, he had only 13 carries for 28 yards in New York as the Vikings tried to break in Josh Freeman. Now playing the Packers, this may be a game where the score gets out of hand so quickly that Minnesota is forced to abandon the run. As he's not much of a threat in the passing game, this does not look like a chance for Peterson to shine in prime time.

Alfred Morris (minus-2 points)

Washington has been establishing the run again, but Roy Helu came in to score three touchdowns last week to match Morris' season total. Not only is there the RBBC concern -- no surprise on a Mike Shanahan team -- but Denver possesses the No. 5 rush defense, and has yet to allow more than 73 yards to any runner. Expecting a bounce-back Denver performance after the loss in Indianapolis, this is a better matchup for quarterback Robert Griffin III as he tries to keep pace with Peyton Manning on the road. Washington's offense has been very streaky. Another poor first half and the game may be a blowout, which would be bad news for Morris' production.

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]

[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	NO	Drew Brees	-6
QB	TB	Mike Glennon	-4
QB	MIA	Ryan Tannehill	-3
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	-3
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	-2
RB	CIN	Giovani Bernard	-2
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	-2
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	-2
RB	STL	Zac Stacy	-2
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	-2
RB	CIN	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	-2
RB	WAS	Roy Helu	-1
QB	NYJ	Geno Smith	-1
RB	PIT	Le'Veon Bell	-1
RB	DET	Joique Bell	-1
RB	ATL	Jacquizz Rodgers	-1
RB	NYJ	Bilal Powell	-1
RB	ATL	Jason Snelling	-1
TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	-1
WR	CLE	Josh Gordon	-1

Antonio Brown (plus-1 point)

He may not get the touchdowns like other No. 1 receivers, but Brown has had at least five catches, seven targets and 50 yards in all six games this season. Ben Roethlisberger has been playing better recently, and he gets to play the No. 24 pass defense in Oakland, which he shredded last season. Brown had 87 yards and a touchdown that day. He'll be the high man again this week for Pittsburgh.

Josh Gordon (minus-1 point)

Just as we have a "Start Every Denver Skill Player" clause, it's starting to become a "Sit Every Skill Player Facing Kansas City" sort of year. If you watched Brandon Weeden against Green Bay -- he was 17-of-42 passing for 149 yards, and believes in the underhand pass -- then imagine what he's going to do in Arrowhead against the No. 1 defense. Weeden may not even start this week, as Jason Campbell could take the job. Whoever is in the pocket will be under siege, as the Chiefs already have 35 sacks this season. Starting Gordon or tight end Jordan Cameron -- and expecting a huge game -- would not be wise this week.

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
Vernon Davis (plus-1 point)

You may have noticed the projection system loves all the key 49ers this week (Anquan Boldin and Frank Gore included), which says a little about their talent and a lot about the 0-7 Jaguars, who rank No. 27 against the pass and No. 32 against the run. Specifically, this is how the Jaguars rank in fantasy points allowed to each position where No. 1 means the most and No. 32 means the least: quarterback (No. 9), running back (No. 3), wide receiver (No. 11) and tight end (No. 6). The game's in London -- so the lighting is going to look all strange again -- but it's still the Jaguars.

[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 8 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.

[h=4]Week 8 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	+2	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	+1
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	+1	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	+1
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	0	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	0
RB	DEN	Knowshon Moreno	+3	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	0
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	+2	WR	CIN	A.J. Green	0
RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	0	WR	TB	Vincent Jackson	-1
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	-2	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	+1
WR	PHI	DeSean Jackson	+1	TE	ATL	Tony Gonzalez	0
WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	+1	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	-1

HacheMan · Oct 23, 2013

[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson and others with ample TD opportunities[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

As we near the midway point of the 2013 regular season, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).
If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
With seven weeks in the books, the cream is clearly rising to the top. Marshawn Lynch and Calvin Johnson pace the field in their respective OTD categories.
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[h=3]Rushing[/h]

[h=4]Rushing OTD Leaders After Week 7[/h]

Rk	Rusher	Att	TD	2013 OTD	Week 7 OTD
1	Marshawn Lynch	138	6	5.7	1.2
2	Jamaal Charles	135	6	5.4	1.3
3	Frank Gore	126	5	5.3	1.8
4	Willis McGahee	70	1	5.0	0.2
5	Knowshon Moreno	95	8	4.7	0.6
6	Fred Jackson	86	5	4.3	0.8
7	Ray Rice	86	3	3.8	0.7
8	DeMarco Murray	91	3	3.5	0.0
9	Mike Tolbert	44	3	3.5	1.6
10	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	99	3	3.3	0.0
11	Matt Forte	116	6	3.1	0.7
12	Arian Foster	121	1	3.0	0.1
13	Jackie Battle	35	1	2.9	0.0
14	Le'Veon Bell	48	2	2.7	0.7
15	Bernard Pierce	79	2	2.6	0.0
16	Rashard Mendenhall	92	3	2.5	0.4
17	LeSean McCoy	141	3	2.5	0.2
18	Adrian Peterson	115	5	2.4	0.1
19	Jacquizz Rodgers	60	2	2.4	0.1
20	Ben Tate	66	1	2.4	0.1
21	Brandon Jacobs	44	3	2.4	0.0
22	Maurice Jones-Drew	103	2	2.3	0.1
23	Stevan Ridley	78	3	2.2	0.1
24	Darren McFadden	67	2	2.2	0.0
25	Trent Richardson	106	2	2.2	0.1
26	Danny Woodhead	46	1	2.1	0.7
27	Brandon Bolden	27	1	2.1	1.1
28	Anthony Dixon	14	2	2.1	0.0
29	Ahmad Bradshaw	41	2	1.9	0.0
30	DeAngelo Williams	101	0	1.9	0.1
31	Ronnie Hillman	40	1	1.9	0.4
32	Ronnie Brown	26	1	1.8	0.0
33	Michael Bush	24	1	1.8	0.0
34	Eddie Lacy	83	2	1.7	0.7
35	Daniel Thomas	39	2	1.7	0.3
36	Reggie Bush	96	1	1.6	0.2
37	Zac Stacy	50	0	1.6	0.8
38	Joique Bell	58	3	1.6	0.0
39	Chris Johnson	115	0	1.5	0.0
40	Jason Snelling	35	1	1.4	0.4

Lynch (5.7) is your new rushing OTD leader for 2013. The Seahawks' workhorse carried the ball 21 times in Week 8, three of which came within 5 yards of the end zone. That included a successful conversion from 2 yards out and an unsuccessful try from the 1-yard line. Lynch has now converted 5 of 9 (56 percent) tries inside the 5-yard line this season.
Powered by a league-high 1.8 rushing OTD this past week, Frank Gore (5.3) now sits third overall in the category on the season. Gore scored on both his chances from the opponent's 1-yard line in Week 7. He's now 4-for-4 in that department this year. Also boosting Gore's rushing OTD this week were carries from 2 and 4 yards out.
Fred Jackson (4.3) wasn't the fantasy back of note in Buffalo entering the 2013 season, but he certainly has taken control of the Bills' backfield over the past month. The veteran back has scored five times in seven games and OTD suggests it's no fluke. Jackson's rushing OTD is sixth highest in the league. The Bills have handed the ball to a running back eight times while inside the opponent's 5-yard line this season. Jackson has handled all eight of those carries, scoring on four.
It has been a rough year for Ray Rice (3.8), but scoring opportunities have been aplenty. Rice has nine carries within seven yards of paydirt, including five from inside of three yards out. Rice's three rushing touchdowns have come from distances of 1, 2 and 3 yards out. It's fair to expect a rebound from the Ravens' talented lead back.
Doug Martin (1.0) has the league's lowest rushing OTD among backs with at least 100 carries this season. Mike James (1.4) has only 17 carries on the year, but his rushing OTD is already highest on the team. Martin doesn't have a single carry inside the 5-yard line this year, with his only score coming from five yards out. James, meanwhile, recorded three carries within four yards of paydirt in relief of an injured Martin in Week 7. With Martin out, at least this week, James will be fantasy relevant as Tampa Bay's workhorse.

[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Remember that receiving OTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to better weight throws into the end zone.

[h=4]Receiving OTD Leaders After Week 6[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	TD	2013 OTD	Week 7 OTD
1	Calvin Johnson	60	6	5.8	1.4
2	A.J. Green	75	5	5.0	0.1
3	Wes Welker	62	8	4.7	0.7
4	Alshon Jeffery	55	2	4.5	0.1
5	Dez Bryant	70	6	4.5	0.9
6	Kenbrell Thompkins	54	4	4.4	0.1
7	Martellus Bennett	43	4	4.3	0.5
8	DeSean Jackson	60	5	4.1	0.6
9	Brandon Marshall	65	5	4.1	0.7
10	Cecil Shorts	74	1	4.0	0.6
11	Jason Witten	54	3	3.9	0.1
12	Tony Gonzalez	46	3	3.6	0.0
13	Julius Thomas	49	8	3.6	0.8
14	Larry Fitzgerald	55	4	3.5	0.4
15	Michael Floyd	50	1	3.4	0.2
16	Jordan Cameron	56	5	3.4	0.9
17	Vernon Davis	42	6	3.4	0.4
18	Joseph Fauria	13	5	3.4	0.8
19	Julian Edelman	66	2	3.4	0.1
20	Aaron Dobson	45	1	3.3	0.1
21	Demaryius Thomas	57	5	3.3	1.3
22	Pierre Garcon	63	2	3.3	0.1
23	Reggie Wayne	57	2	3.2	0.1
24	Jordy Nelson	45	5	3.2	0.4
25	Victor Cruz	64	4	3.2	0.5
26	Austin Pettis	39	4	3.0	0.4
27	Steve Smith	45	3	3.0	0.3
28	Vincent Jackson	75	4	3.0	1.6
29	Eric Decker	62	3	2.9	1.1
30	Jimmy Graham	57	6	2.9	0.0
31	T.Y. Hilton	52	2	2.9	0.4
32	DeAndre Hopkins	42	2	2.9	0.8
33	Sidney Rice	31	3	2.7	0.5
34	Garrett Graham	32	3	2.7	0.7
35	Josh Gordon	47	2	2.6	1.3
36	Marlon Brown	34	3	2.6	0.0
37	Coby Fleener	31	3	2.5	0.3
38	Denarius Moore	41	4	2.5	0.0
39	Steve Johnson	47	2	2.5	0.4
40	Antonio Brown	57	2	2.5	0.1

Following a one-week dip to second place, Calvin Johnson (5.8) is back atop the receiving OTD leaderboard. Johnson scored twice this past week, catching one of two end zone targets and taking another one in from four yards out. On the year, Johnson has converted 3 of 10 end zone targets. Only A.J. Green has equaled Johnson in end zone targets this year.
Believe it or not, Wes Welker (4.7) is still Peyton Manning's primary weapon near the end zone. Welker has converted five of his six end zone targets into touchdowns, which has propelled him to third overall in receiving OTD. Manning has looked Welker's way on nine other occasions when his primary slot man was within six yards of the end zone. It's not crazy to think Welker will score 15 times this season.
Having struggled to find scoring chances earlier in the year, Vincent Jackson (3.0) was a player we talked about previously as a regression candidate. That regression kicked in and then some this week. Jackson saw a whopping 22 targets, which powered him to a league-high 1.6 receiving OTD. Three of Jackson's targets came while he was inside the confines of the end zone. He caught one. Jackson's other touchdown came after a catch and run from 15 yards out. Consider that, prior to Week 6, Jackson hadn't been targeted while inside the opponent's 9-yard line. Since then, he has seen seven in that area.
This is probably a bit surprising considering his propensity for scoring long touchdowns, but DeSean Jackson (4.1) sits eighth overall in receiving OTD this season. Jackson is tied for third in the league in end zone targets with nine. He's caught four of them. Jackson has seen only five other targets while inside the opponent's 20-yard line, with his fifth touchdown coming after a 20-yard sprint to the end zone.
Despite seeing only six targets this past week, Josh Gordon (2.6) was able to manage the league's third-highest receiving OTD mark (1.3). Exactly half of those six targets came while Gordon was in the end zone. The others came while he was six, 12 and 53 yards out. Gordon has caught only one of four end zone targets this year.
No wide receiver with 30 or more targets has a lower receiving OTD than Stephen Hill (0.7) this season. Despite standing at 6-foot-4, Hill has yet to see a single target inside the opponent's 3-yard line. In fact, he has managed only two red zone targets all year. Hill had to run his lone 2013 touchdown in from 21 yards away. He remains a strong bench stash.

HacheMan · Oct 24, 2013

Letters to the TMR

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

I get email.

Rachel: I read your article on "It comes in stages" and would like to request you to feature an article about our fantasy product called (product name). I hope to reach you by email to provide more information.

TMR: Cool. I'm surprised more people don't take me up on this. Because that's how it works. If you read my article, I promote your product. Send it along.

Nick from Luray, Va.: Just wanted to drop you a note and say I really enjoyed your book. The book is now being passed around so everyone in my league will be able to read before the season is over, kind of a new requirement I put in.

TMR: You have no idea how excited my book company is that the 10 of you are sharing one book.

Neil B from Colorado Springs: Hey Matthew! If I am looking to trade Jimmy Graham in a non-keeper H2H 10 team league, what should I be looking to get?

14 minutes later ...

Neil B from Colorado Springs: Never mind, Matthew. I traded Jimmy Graham, C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson for Vernon Davis and Jamaal Charles.

TMR: Happy to be of service!

Dan Schwartz from Vail, Colo.: Any particular reason you left Philip Rivers out of your top 25 QBs?

TMR: Well, I just think there will be 25 better quarterbacks this week since, you know, he's on a bye.

Benjamin from El Paso, Texas: I was just wondering why Vincent Jackson's projection is so low, after all he's been pretty consistent all season long so far.

TMR: I have nothing to do with our projections, positive or negative. If you want my opinion on a player, it's in my rankings or this column.

Jacob Delahaut, Green Bay, Wis.: I obsess over statistics, live and die with wins and losses, endlessly debate trades and everything else fantasy football related in two different leagues. My loving wife of over two years appears to be OK with my obsession however, aside from the occasional influx of small amounts of "jelly beans," she's never received any tangible benefit from my fantasy football pursuits. That all changed about one month ago.

My wife got a summons for jury duty. Like most people, she had no interest in missing work and money to sit around for possibly days on end. But she shows up to court and starts answering questions to determine if she can sit on the jury. They ask a group of them if any of them play fantasy football or have a significant other that plays. Apparently, the case is a lawsuit involving a fantasy football website based in Wisconsin. My wife raised her hand. They ask her how she feels about fantasy football. She replies I spend too much time with it and is very displeased about fantasy football in general and just like that, Becky is dismissed from jury duty. She arrives home and tells me her story. My reply: "You're welcome!"

TMR: Getting people out of jury duty. Is there anything fantasy football can't do? I feel like someone should write a poem about it.

Greg from Austin, Texas: I love fantasy football more than just about anything. So I wrote a poem.
Run down buildings, holed with gatherings called bars,
Under bridges I sleep, Even Under the stars,
To normals I'm le rat, Although I try to stand tall,
I own a thing called nothing, Yet I still have it all.
A long car I travel, I pay a quarter no toll, Many are pumped for this day,
To I ... it's just same ol' Spring to summer,
Summer to fall, I own a thing called nothing,
Yet I still have it all,
Hello good Stranger, How do you do?
I do fine good sir, How about you?
I own a thing called nothing, has one ever tried?
If I told you I had, you could say one just lied.
That thing in your mouth, do you have one to spare?
To deny a man with nothing, I sure would not dare.
I may own a thing called nothing, but I damn sure have it all.
Please explain how to live this life, without fantasy football?

TMR: Never mind.

Ken from Boca Raton, Fla.: Matt, for the guy that ripped off your kid. Place an ad in the local paper as if you're him that he's selling I phones for $25.00 each. Write to just come by and ring the bell any time after 8 PM. Keep doing this with other ideas until you feel somewhat vindicated. Don't hold in your anger, it'll mess up your picks and make you constipated.

TMR: Thank you and thank you to everyone who expressed kind words for my son, outrage at the guy who did it and suggestions on how to get even. The company involved actually reached out via social media and ended up refunding my son's money into his account along with an apology and an investigation into the guy who did this. And the smile when I told my son he had his money back was a mile wide.

Brandon from Houston: Hey Matt, so it's Sunday morning. I'm debating whether to play Lamar Miller or Jacquizz Rodgers, and my roommate, an avid fantasy football player, says to go look at your love/hate list, since he trusts your advice. So I do. You love Lamar Miller and you hate Jacquizz Rodgers. Sounds easy. So when you're doing your show this week and you want to put on that little witty personality and talk about the crazy emails you get and how you know you get picks wrong so that makes it ok, include this quote, which is directed at you. "You're a butt-licking, toe-sucking, hobo-kissing cat lover of an 'expert.' You make a moose with rabies look like the sun on a perfect summer day. If I had a nickel for every time I thought about smearing wet cream cheese all over your car and watching you lick it off, I'd have two nickels. Enjoy the rest of the season. I hope you eat a moldy onion and have horrible halitosis during the entire second half of the Super Bowl, enraging whomever you are sitting next to. You're a banana cream frog licker, and my dog wouldn't dare lick your feet, even if you doused them in sugar and applesauce."

TMR: Another satisfied customer!

Ben from Sherman Oaks, Calif.: To this day every time my wife sees your face she starts yelling at the TV. She thinks you are a monster.

TMR: Why do I do this again?

Mike from Elsie, Mich.: Mr. Berry, I'm sorry to hear what happened to your step son. It doesn't shock me that someone would do that. Thank you for sharing your stories each week I enjoy them. I also realize many people lose perspective of fantasy football and you catch a lot of grief for your love/ hate columns. As a father raising a special-needs child, which can be very difficult task at times, it puts things in perspective for me, what things are important. Many people take so much for granted in their lives and don't learn to appreciate the little things that makes us happy. Thank you for making my Thursday better with your column.

Seth from Pittsford, N.Y.: Wanted to thank you for putting a smile on myself and my wife's faces. We're at St. Jude Children's Hospital with my daughter, who has a brain tumor. I'm laying on one bed, my wife on the other. She is reading you on the iPad, I'm reading it on the Kindle. We are both laughing to ourselves. Keep up the great work! Seth

TMR: Oh yeah. That's why.

Let's get to it. As always, please don't use this as a typical start/sit column but rather as a guide to players who will exceed or fall short of general expectations. Consult my rankings for how I feel on specific player-versus-player calls. Thanks, once again, to Zach Rodgers and the gang at ESPN Stats & Information for their way-too-kind assistance and away we go.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 8[/h]
Robert Griffin III, Washington: Well, it's about time. He finally looked like RG III again last week and, more importantly, they're using him the way they did last season with more designed runs. He's racked up 161 yards on 20 rush attempts after averaging 18 yards on 4.5 attempts per game in the first four. Meanwhile, Washington can't stop anybody, so you know Peyton & Co. will light them up. Which means Washington will be in response mode and a big fantasy day coming for Griffin against a Broncos team allowing the most passing yards and tied for giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford, Lions: In case anyone was worried that the Cowboys defense was good after Nick Foles was so brutal last week and RG III didn't have a huge day against them two weeks ago; I'm starting Stafford with confidence. Which should be a fragrance. Stafford with Confidence. I wouldn't buy it, but I know people who would. You know about Stafford's best weapon, Megatron, of course, but Stafford has also been a check-down machine this year (thank you, Reggie Bush). He's second in yards and third in touchdowns on passes 10 yards or fewer downfield. Guess what the Cowboys really struggle with? They've allowed the second-most yards on such passes this season, and are also tied for the third-most touchdowns on such passes.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks and Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Both have great matchups, obviously, but I wanted to list them because I kind of lump them together. Young running quarterbacks that were great down the stretch last year, came in as top-10 picks this year, struggled early on and now ... look like their old selves. When I went back and watched these two, I loved what I saw and expect it to continue. You were already starting them against the Rams and Jaguars respectively, just wanted to say I think they'll be strong for the rest of the season, especially Wilson.

If you're desperate: There's always a chance Michael Vick leaves the game early and he won't be 100 percent to begin with, but against the Giants, he'll be a solid bet for 14 points or so with some upside. ... Geno Smith has been very up and down this year, but three 20-point games in his past five and no Leon Hall for the Bengals. ... Not saying it will be pretty, but worth noting that Carson Palmer now has back-to-back games of double-digit production and the Falcons give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I could see him getting you 10 to 15.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I Hate for Week 8[/h]
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Here's something you don't expect: The Raiders defense is actually -- gasp -- not bad. It ain't the Seahawks, of course, but it's better than you think: tied for 13th in scoring defense, allowing just 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. Ben will be fine in this game, but I wanted to put him in here because I feel the perception is that Oakland is bad, and they aren't. They send pressure a lot (only two teams send added pressure more than Oakland), and Big Ben has struggled with that this year. They're just mediocre, which is an upgrade from atrocious, so this is not as cushy a matchup as you might think at first glance. Big Ben lands outside my top 10.

Eli Manning, Giants: Did you see last Monday night? Oh, you did? Then on behalf of everyone here at ESPN, I thank you for your continued, if tortured, patronage. Until we see some consistency from him, I cannot recommend starting him, even in a game with an easy matchup like Philly. Because you know who else was an easy matchup? Minnesota. He's owned in 88 percent of leagues and he shouldn't be. In 10-team non-keeper leagues, don't start him, don't own him.

[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 8:[/h]
Frank Gore, 49ers: Obvious name but including here because I like this stat: Since Week 4, Gore leads the league in rushes and rushing yards and has four touchdowns. This is a good week to use him in salary-cap leagues, or the "use a player only once a season" version of Gridiron Challenge, as the Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs, rushing yards, rushing yards after contact and rushing touchdowns (tied) this year.

Reggie Bush, Lions: Pop quiz, hotshot: It's been a few days now, has Reggie Bush stopped laughing at Kanye's engagement, or is it still going on? While you ponder, consider the fact that the Cowboys have allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season.

Eddie Lacy, Packers: Every week I put him in, every week he makes me look smart. And sad, because I'm playing against him this week in one of the leagues where I don't have him. The Vikings let Peyton Hillis score on them last week. Peyton Hillis. Just let that sink it for a moment. Marinate in it. On-his-couch-a-week-ago, hasn't-been-good-since-2011 Peyton Hillis.

Fred Jackson, Bills: Fred Jackson a top-10 back? He is this week, brother. Or sister. Spiller is still banged-up and might not play and Jackson -- who apparently has taken the "writhe on the ground like you are going to die from pain and then return a few minutes later totally fine" gig from Paul Pierce -- played 40 snaps last week to just 13 for Spiller. The Saints have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season, second-most in the league.

If you're desperate: The Roy Helu thing isn't a fluke. He's their guy in the red zone, in the no-huddle, on third down. They are going to be behind in this game and throwing, which means hello to Helu. (hangs head in shame). I'm sorry. I thought I was better than that. I'm not. ... So Lamar Miller continues to be inconsistent (my word) or terrible (everyone else's) but he has averaged 5.6 yards per carry between the tackles this season, and last week, in the Patriots' first game without Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, they gave up 146 rushing yards between the tackles, tops in the league for Week 7.

[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 8[/h]
To be honest, the running back situation is so brutal this week, I have a hard time putting anyone in this section this week. I mean, Fred Jackson is a top-10 guy this week. It's ugly. Like DeAngelo Williams would normally be a "hate" this week. Mike Tolbert was on the field for more snaps last week, Williams has yet to score a touchdown this year, Tampa Bay is fifth against the run and have only allowed one rushing touchdown all year. Yet he's a top-20 guy this week! There's nobody else!

So honestly, I could tell you that I'm not buying Mike James, that you should expect lower numbers from guys like Darren Sproles (Bills allow second-fewest receptions and third-lowest receiving yards to opposing runners), that Zac Stacy, as much as I like him as a runner, probably won't have the game of his life on "Monday Night Football" against Seattle, that Willis McGahee or BenJarvus Green-Ellis are down even from their current low standards, but I'm not going to. This week, all bets are off. No running backs are in "hate" this week. Or they all are. It's a wasteland out there. Good luck, my friend. And hey, as you sift through the rubble this week for a running back, just remember: clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 8[/h]
Eric Decker, Broncos: Another super-obvious name. I mention him just because I thought it was worth noting that while Decker tends to be an afterthought to Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, did you know he actually leads the Broncos in targets and receiving yards? Just as much a top-10 play as the other guys; my Washington semi-professional football team is not only terrible on defense, but they just lost Brandon Meriwether for the game. Brandon Meriweather is not a good football player. Yet him missing is a downgrade. Seriously. It's that brutal.

Steve Smith, Panthers: Calvin Johnson. And Wes Welker. That's it. That's the list of wide receivers that have been targeted more in the red zone this year than Steve Smith. Touchdowns in two straight, Revis Island no longer exists. Revis Island is no longer a thing (thanks for the zone, Tampa Bay!) and in fact, the Bucs have allowed four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the past two weeks, which is tied for the most in the league.

Marques Colston, Saints: I'm guessing that Jimmy Graham doesn't play, or if he does, he's limited by injury. Colston is too good a player to have this long a drought, I feel it ends against the Bills who have allowed the second-most fantasy points, yards and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Admittedly, they've been banged up and they now have Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd back, but still. The Saints are gonna throw and they're gonna throw it to Colston. He's a good WR2 play this week.

Jarrett Boykin, Packers: Now, not every game is going to have Joe Haden on Jordy Nelson and James Jones out, but Boykin is legit. It's a nice matchup here (only two teams have allowed more receiving touchdowns or receptions per game to opposing wide receivers than the Vikings, who are 29th against the pass) and I'm not expecting James Jones in this one again. But even if Jones plays, he won't be 100 percent, and they're going to be short Jermichael Finley as well. Even if they are running more, as we keep saying, the Packers offense can sustain three fantasy viable wide receivers.

Terrance Williams, Cowboys: A score in three straight, Tony Romo trusts him and it's easy to see why. Since Week 4, the only qualified wide receiver catching a higher percentage of his targets than Williams is Antonio Brown. He throws it to Williams and Williams comes down with it. Meanwhile, I would say this is a tasty matchup, if I talked like Paris Hilton five years ago. The Lions rank in the top five most generous defenses in fantasy points, receptions and yards allowed to opposing wide receivers.

If you're desperate: As bad as Eli has been, he keeps finding Rueben Randle (four scores in three games) and Randle had 15 targets last time they faced Philly. ... You can throw on Atlanta and Michael Floyd has five catches in each of the past four games. ... It's the Monday night game, so you'd have to have another option, but if Percy Harvin is out there, I'm playing him as a WR 3. If he's not, I like Golden Tate the most of any Seahawks receiver in what is a terrific matchup. ... If you look at what No. 2 wide receivers have done against the Browns this season, the numbers are good. Among them? Brian Hartline in Week 1 (9 receptions, 114 yards, 1 touchdown), Marlon Brown in Week 2 (4-for-45, 1 TD), Kris Durham in Week 6, (8 for 83 yards), Jarrett Boykin in Week 7 (8 for 103 yards, 1 TD), which is a long way of saying I like Donnie Avery this week in deeper leagues as Dwayne Bowe gets Hadenized, which I just made up and semi-hate.

[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 8[/h]
Mike Wallace, Dolphins: Hasn't scored since Week 2, his quarterback is inconsistent, and I expect Aqib Talib to be active for this game and covering Wallace. The Patriots have played pretty good pass defense recently (11th best in the NFL, Drew Brees had just over 230 passing yards against them two weeks ago) and Hartline and Brandon Gibson take enough targets away that I can't see him as a top-20 play this week. FYI, since 2012, when Talib is in the lineup, the Patriots have allowed 14 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. Without Talib, the Patriots have allowed 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

Denarius Moore, Raiders: "Three scores in four games, Berry, what's the problem, yo?" Steelers defense, that's what. I'm expecting Ike Taylor to be on him and overall, the Steelers defense is pretty strong against the pass. They allow just the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and just three touchdowns all season.

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Insert wide receiver being covered by Joe Haden here. Sorry. Insert "wide receiver who was signed to a $56 million extension in the offseason by an offensive-minded coach who had been pass-happy throughout his entire career but now spends time watching as his quarterback checks down to his running back on every play because he is deathly scared to throw into coverage, and now he's wondering why they bothered to sign him for all that money in the first place" being covered by Joe Haden here.
Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots: In Rob Gronkowski's return, Thompkins saw only five targets for two catches and 16 yards, all tied for his season lows this season. Part of Thompkins' appeal was the scoring, and those opportunities are fewer now with Gronk around. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still the only team yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver, and they've allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 8:[/h]
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons: I know, he's getting doubled to death, but against the Cardinals, that's not gonna matter. You know he's getting targets in the end zone (only Jordan Cameron has been targeted more among tight ends), and you know that this is as good as it gets for matchups. The Cardinals have allowed the most receptions, yards, fantasy points and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

Jordan Reed, Washington: As mentioned a few times this year, but most recently in the "love" section of last week's Love/Hate, Reed now has three straight games of over six targets. Reed has now caught 87 percent of his targets this season, the highest among any qualified wide receiver or tight end. Fred Davis was a healthy scratch last week; they like Jordan Reed there. This is not a fluke. You already know Griffin is gonna have to throw, throw, throw in this game, and the Broncos are bottom five in receptions and yards allowed to opposing tight ends.

If you're desperate: Heath Miller now has 70 yards or a score in three straight games. ... Cowboys give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and Joseph Fauria is a legit red zone target in what should be a high-scoring game.

[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 8[/h]
Jared Cook, Rams: Averaging fewer than 35 yards a game since Week 2, he should not be owned in ESPN standard leagues.

Brandon Myers, Giants: Owned in 78 percent of ESPN.com leagues. Again, should not owned. At all. Just stop.

I know, a very lame "hate" list for tight end this week. What can I tell you? Tight end is ugly this week as well. Like, I don't love Jordan Cameron's matchup, but he's still a top-10 tight end this week. So because of injuries, the bye week and a general lack of consistent talent, people are scrambling a bit here as well, so there's not a ton to hate.

[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 8[/h]
Carolina Panthers: Still available in 40 percent of leagues or so, the Panthers have allowed the second-fewest points per game (13.8) and third-fewest yards per game (302.2) this season. In fact, only the Chiefs and Seahawks have averaged more fantasy points per game than the Panthers defense this season. And you like the opponent on a short week. The only team to score fewer points or gain fewer yards than the Buccaneers this season? The Jaguars.

New England Patriots: Patriots at home, angry, against a quarterback that gets sacked a ton and likes to throw picks? OK.

New Orleans Saints: Banged-up Bills team coming into New Orleans, where the Saints are off a bye, have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are fourth in scoring defense. Thad Lewis, incidentally, has taken nine sacks since Week 6, tied for most in the league over that time.

If you're desperate: The Philadelphia Eagles have played a lot better recently and get the human turnover, Eli Manning.

[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 8[/h]
Denver Broncos: They are at home, they are angry, the Washington special teams are terrible, so there's a chance that Trindon Holliday runs one back. I get the potential appeal here, but I'm avoiding. Denver is bottom six in both points and yards allowed per game, they are no higher than 13th in either sacks or turnovers, and Washington is top-10 in points and yards. Shootout city. No thanks.

Cleveland Browns D/ST: They'll be fine, I have them at 11, but they are outside my top 10 just because Alex Smith does not turn the ball over. He doesn't throw it anywhere near Dwayne Bowe, of course, but he also doesn't turn it over. Not a top-10 play for me this week.

HacheMan · Oct 24, 2013

Week 8 flex ranks: Very depth-challenged

Eric Karabell

Between injuries and bye weeks, sometimes it just feels like fantasy football isn't fair. Many fantasy owners are being tested this week by an extreme lack of depth, and you'll find some interesting names in the lineups of your opponents. Hopefully we can advise which interesting names to look at for your lineups with our weekly flex rankings, combining the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one handy list. After all, we're all in this together, except this week that means no Matt Forte, Torrey Smith and Antonio Gates.

Feel free to read everything provided by the ESPN Fantasy team -- it might take a while! -- and use that information to augment your decisions, not make them for you. If you still have questions or a unique scoring system, try us on Twitter or in one of our many chats. As for my Wednesday chat session, here is the link. And here are the Week 8 staff rankings.

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Best player in fantasy right now, other than that Denver quarterback. Charles has no fewer than 15 fantasy points in any game.

2. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Pretty consistent, and he's matchup-proof. This happens to be a good matchup, though.

3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: I'd cautiously sell high, but really, in this offense the only thing that can hurt Moreno is his health.

4. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Definite concerns that Philly's season could fall apart. McCoy should be OK, but he didn't exactly thrash the Giants a few weeks ago.

5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Wow, how the mighty have fallen. Buy low. Right now. Even if Fran Tarkenton has to play quarterback next week.

6. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

7. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers Pretty awesome matchup, though he'll be a long way from home while playing in London.

8. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: The Giants kind of ran the football on Minnesota. Lacy will run the football on Minnesota.

9. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

10. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Assuaged concerns with his Week 7 performance.

11. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: The Redskins secondary has really struggled this season.

12. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

13. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: Worry about a timeshare if you must, but Morris rushed for 95 yards on 19 carries last week. Doesn't sound like a big problem to me.

14. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos

15. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: The word is he should play, but we've been surprised by others this season, so you'll have to make sure. If he doesn't play, Benjamin Watson is not a bad one-week fill-in.

16. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: What, no touchdowns? I mock because I can. Gronk is back, and he's just fine.

17. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Don't laugh, but he now has double digits in fantasy scoring six of seven weeks. Check your No. 1 running back, because chances are he hasn't done that.

18. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

19. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: One of the studs you play no matter the quarterback, no matter the opponent.

20. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

21. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: Would be nice if he'd get some touches early in games, but hey, he's been productive of late. His floor is low, though.

22. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

23. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

24. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

25. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Still think Nick Foles is really awesome? Michael Vick should restore order this week … until he limps off the field again.

26. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: I have to think getting him more involved was part of the bye-week focus.

27. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: Would like to believe this offense would do the same as with Sproles above (focused on getting the little fella the ball more), but it hasn't happened.

28. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

29. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

30. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos

31. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Don't stop believing! Unless, that is, you have had enough already.

32. Marques Colston, WR, Saints: He had one fantasy point in each of his past two games. That has to get better.

33. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: Quarterback? Who needs a quarterback? My take is that Jason Campbell, unless he's as bad as Josh Freeman was on Monday, isn't that much different than what Brandon Weeden normally provides. And Gordon is really good.

34. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: I'm hoping he can score six touchdowns this season. What, you want 1,000 yards, too? I'm not seeing that. After all, he's on pace for barely 700.

35. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Maybe he could use Jason Campbell at QB, too.

36. Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys: Still a chance DeMarco Murray plays this week, but I doubt it. Randle did just fine last week.

37. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

38. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: More fights or touchdowns this week? How about one of each!

39. Zac Stacy, RB, Rams: Amazing how quickly he became one of the more reliable options.

40. Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons: Don't expect 20 points every week, but top-20 WR numbers are possible here.

41. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns: See Gordon, Josh. I'm not particularly concerned here.

42. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: Butterfingers has another nice matchup to exploit.

43. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

44. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: From 34 carries all season to 34 in one game. I'll predict 19 carries this week.

45. James Jones, WR, Packers: Make sure he's set to play. This is the Sunday night game, and you'll need to make a decision many hours prior to it.

46. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons: Blogged about him Wednesday, with cautious expectations.

47. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons

48. Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys: Has scored touchdowns in three consecutive games.

49. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars

50. Jarrett Boykin, WR, Packers

51. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Won't have to deal with Jonathan Stewart this week, but does it matter? Williams hasn't done much in a month, and he doesn't sniff the end zone any longer.

52. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

53. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: Your guess is as good as mine with this guy. But there is upside.

54. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills

55. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

56. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals

57. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars

58. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons: Don't simply forget him when Steven Jackson returns. He still catches passes, making him valuable in PPR formats.

59. Mike James, RB, Buccaneers: It's certainly possible that he's really good, so pick him up. But if Doug Martin wasn't doing much, supposedly due to what's around him, how can James?

60. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

61. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: On pace for 80 catches, 887 yards and seven scores. Stop complaining about him already!

62. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders

63. Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets

64. Willis McGahee, RB, Browns: Doing awfully little with his touches, but at least he gets touches.

65. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins

66. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals

67. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: On pace for 157 rushing attempts and 77 receptions. His career highs are 147 and 50.

68. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

69. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals

70. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Also a lot of whining about him, and questions on whether he can be cut in a fantasy league. Sure, go ahead. I can't make a case to keep him around.

71. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Wow, his value sure changed quickly! And he's supposedly healthy.

72. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: His value adjusted as well with three touchdowns. Don't get used to it, though.

73. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: Add him because he's pretty good, but not because Nicks might get traded. That's not likely.

74. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: You know, he might become more valuable if/when Percy Harvin returns. I just don't think it happens this week, which is why Harvin is not ranked here. And we won't know until Monday.

75. Peyton Hillis, RB, Giants: I'm almost embarrassed to have to rank this guy …

76. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: … but that's what the Giants have done to us by rescuing long-past-their-prime running backs. Please come back in Week 10, David Wilson!

77. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers

78. Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers

79. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: Someone in the Miami front office really likes him. Stand up and explain yourself, please!

80. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks

81. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers: Antonio Brown has twice as many catches and fantasy points. Not surprising.

82. Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers

83. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots

84. Brandon Gibson, WR, Dolphins

85. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

86. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: Got 45 fantasy points in his first three weeks, but has 13 points in four games since. The recent trend is the problem here.

87. Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots: Wouldn't you like to see him get 20 touches in a game? It's not happening.

88. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams: People will write him off with Sam Bradford gone, but maybe the Rams find more ways to get Austin involved. Talent is talent.

89. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos

90. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins: Monster Week 7 got him noticed, and should keep him noticed, too.

91. Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons

92. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

93. Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings

94. Heath Miller, TE, Steelers

95. Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals

96. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers

97. Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles

98. Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys

99. Kris Durham, WR, Lions

100. Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints

Others: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins; Robert Woods, WR, Bills; Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders; Rod Streater, WR, Raiders; Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots; Donnie Avery, WR, Chiefs; Tashard Choice, RB, Bills; Brian Leonard, RB, Buccaneers; Austin Pettis, WR, Rams; Phillip Tanner, RB, Cowboys; Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams; Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns; Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks; Kenny Stills, WR, Saints; LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots.

<OFFER>Good luck to all in Week 8 and beyond!

HacheMan · Oct 24, 2013

Panthers-Bucs Thursday injury update

Stephania Bell

"Thursday Night Football" features an NFC South matchup as the Carolina Panthers pay a Week 8 visit to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here’s an injury update on key fantasy players on both teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Doug Martin, RB, shoulder (out): Martin injured his shoulder in Sunday’s game when he landed hard on his elbow while trying to make a catch. He reportedly suffered a torn labrum, and the amount of time he will miss is not clear. Other than ruling him out early for Thursday night’s game, the team has given no indication as to how long Martin will be absent. For his part, Martin has expressed confidence that he will return this year. According to ESPN.com’s Pat Yasinskas, Martin said during his weekly radio show that his pain has decreased and his range of motion has increased, two encouraging early signs. Although it may take some time for him to attempt a return, he has not given up on this season. In the meantime, Mike James will take his place.

Mike Williams, WR, hamstring (questionable): The good news is that Williams played Sunday after being listed as questionable. The bad news is that his hamstring issue is still enough of a problem to keep him listed as “questionable” entering Thursday’s game. Williams cropped up on the injury report in Week 4 (though he played), had a bye in Week 5, sat out Week 6, and then returned without much fanfare in Week 7 (four receptions for 32 yards). Williams was listed as a full practice participant Monday, was listed as a limited participant Tuesday, and then upgraded to full status on Wednesday. Barring a setback, it appears likely that Williams will take the field Thursday night. However, it also appears his hamstring is still limiting him. Having two games only four days apart isn’t helping.

Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith, WR, ankle (probable) and Brandon LaFell, WR, knee (probable): One of the least favorite sights in fantasy football is when a player’s name is added to the injury report the day before a game. That is the case with Smith, who appeared on Wednesday’s injured list after reportedly getting his foot stepped on in practice. However, the “probable” tag tells us not to be concerned, and Smith is expected to play. As for LaFell, he was limited in Monday’s practice coming out of the Week 7 game but was back to full practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. He also is expected to play Thursday night.

Greg Olsen, TE, foot (probable): Olsen has been a regular on the injury report for several weeks with a foot ailment, often starting the week in a boot but upping his activity late in the week and playing on game day. It appears he is doing the same thing this week. Olsen sat out Monday’s practice but was a full participant Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the short week, Olsen is expected to play against the Buccaneers.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, ankle (out): Although Stewart has been ruled out for Thursday night’s game, the important note is that this week he joined his teammates on the practice field for the first time this season. Stewart started the year on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list after lingering problems with his ankles, both of which had been operated on in the offseason. According to ESPN.com’s David Newton, Stewart expects to play Nov. 3 when the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons.

HacheMan · Oct 28, 2013

[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 8[/h][h=3]Stevan Ridley's role hard to figure, as are Tom Brady's underwhelming statistics[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Tell me, friends, which is it? Is Stevan Ridley trapped in a maddening timeshare, or did he simply get benched in the first quarter of Sunday's win over the Miami Dolphins because of an excessive TD celebration in Week 7? You'll never get the answer from the New England Patriots, of course, but I'm concerned. Ridley's first Week 8 carry didn't come until the second quarter, which, OK, maybe that's disciplinary. Or maybe not, because it's the third week in a row he's been uninvolved for approximately the first 15 minutes of a game. Brandon Bolden continues to play when the Pats go hurry-up, and when the team was winning by three and making its final important drive to salt away the game, LeGarrette Blount got carries on seven out of 10 plays, gaining 42 yards. He even got a carry from the Miami 2, but he still stinks in short yardage, and lost 2. Then Ridley came in and converted the score, papering over a little bit of a mess. Ridley is so obviously the more talented RB here, it's not funny, yet New England's week-to-week backfield usage continues to be maddening. And Shane Vereen is eligible to return in Week 11. Add all this up, and I hate to say it, but Ridley is probably a pretty decent sell-high candidate. If someone in your league wants to pay for him as though he's a rock-solid top-15 RB, you should probably do it.

Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• Lest you think the Pats' running game is the only source of wild frustration, I give you the case of Tom Brady. On 2013 merit alone, we can no longer proclaim that Brady is a starting fantasy QB. At halftime Sunday, he was 6-of-8 for 25 yards and an interception; by game's end, he was 13-of-22 for 116 yards, one TD and one INT. He probably should've had a 40-yard TD to Rob Gronkowski, which was called back by a shaky offensive holding call (but by the same token, the Patriots benefited in a huge way from a couple of terrible calls by the officials in the second half). Danny Amendola caught three of six targets for 15 yards. Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted once and didn't catch it (for the second straight week, Aaron Dobson was the main outside threat). And Gronk himself had just two grabs for 27 yards, though again, he should've had that long TD. The fact remains, of course, that Brady doesn't exist in a vacuum, and we remember his great days. But next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, you're forgiven for benching Tom Terrific.

• I don't need to spend too much time on Calvin Johnson's historic Week 8. He's good. His 329 yards is the second-best single-game performance in NFL history, behind only Flipper Anderson's from a game in 1989. But imagine this: Megatron was actually tackled inside the Dallas Cowboys' 5-yard line on four separate occasions. On the first, he actually converted a TD himself on a short slant, but on the other three, someone else scored (David Akers kicked a field goal, Joique Bell and Matthew Stafford each rushed for short scores). As it was, Johnson produced 36 fantasy points. Imagine if he'd made it into the end zone three more times!

• Dez Bryant wrung lots of hype out of the Cowboys/Detroit Lions matchup, comparing himself to Johnson, and while Dez is terrific, he ain't Megatron. That realization may explain why Bryant went loopy on the sidelines multiple times, clearly frustrated with an underachieving Tony Romo. Bryant made one of the prettiest 5-yard TD catches you'll ever see, muscling through a defender and trapping the catch against his helmet, and he also showed open-field moves and good speed on a fourth-quarter 50-yard score. But Bryant had only one other catch all day. He has reason to be miffed with Romo, who played as though he were asleep for three quarters. Some late-game heroics salvaged Romo's day with 20 fantasy points, and Brady's owners can scarcely dream of such an output at this point. But setting aside his 506-yard effort against the Denver Broncos earlier this month, Romo is averaging 244 yards per game (he had 206 Sunday), plus his completion percentage has gone down in four straight contests.

• Of course, when Marvin Jones is involved, every other WR is playing for second place. Ahem. Heading into Thursday's edition of the Fantasy Underground podcast, our plan was to talk about Jones at length, but just before our record time, word came that the Cincinnati Bengals were skeptical Jones would be able to play through a shoulder injury. So we talked about Andy Dalton (disparagingly, I might add … oops), and I mentioned Jones only tangentially. Ugh! By Friday, the Bengals grew more optimistic about Jones playing, and I did rank him 39th among WRs for the week. That wasn't quite high enough. Marvelous Marvin eviscerated the New York Jets to the tune of eight catches for 122 yards and four TDs. And yes, he equaled Megatron's ludicrous 36 fantasy points. Marv will be a hot waiver add this week, though obviously he's just had the best game of his life.

• Even take away Andre Ellington's 80-yard TD run, and he still played well, with 74 yards on his other 14 carries. Rashard Mendenhall missed Sunday's win over the Atlanta Falcons because of a toe injury and Ellington proved he's capable of at least being the main man in a platoon. Stepfan Taylor got 14 touches and seemed to be the team's preferred short-yardage option, and Alfonso Smith also saw snaps. I'm looking forward to watching the tape to get a full sense of how frequently Ellington came off the field; it didn't seem like all that often to me. Arizona is on bye in Week 9, so we'll have to wait to see what happens when Mendy returns. The guess here is that Ellington, one of my Super-Deep Sleepers this summer, will be at least a flex-worthy fantasy option.

• Michael Vick wasn't ready to play Sunday, and it showed. His first throw Sunday was awful and intercepted by Antrel Rolle. Later in the first quarter, he appeared to pull up lame on his only run of the game, and had to come out soon thereafter. And because Nick Foles is still out with a concussion, Matt Barkley had to come in again, and was just as awful in Week 8 as he was in Week 7. Nobody knows when Foles will be able to play again, which could set up Barkley to start next week versus the Oakland Raiders. And that really holds players like LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson hostage.

• Speaking of the Raiders, boy, their offense started out fun Sunday. Terrelle Pryor put LaMarr Woodley in the torture chamber on Oakland's first drive, faking a read-option handoff to Darren McFadden, keeping it, and scampering for a 93-yard TD, the longest by a QB in NFL history. On the downside, Pryor wasn't able to get anything else going; that first run was worth 15 fantasy points, and Pryor wound up with 15 fantasy points on the day. His team was able to make only one first down in the entire second half. But I'm looking forward to digging into the tape, because McFadden was able to run for two TDs, perhaps at least in part because the Pittsburgh Steelers were feeling burned by Pryor and were keying on him. Anyway, Oakland looks like one of the league's prime users of the read-option, though we'll also likely see a bunch of it Monday night from the Seattle Seahawks.

• How much more do the San Francisco 49ers need to see of Colin Kaepernick running the option before they start using it much more? Kaepernick's first rushing TD against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday was actually not an option, but rather a perfectly blocked old-fashioned QB sweep led by a blocking Frank Gore. But Kaepernick's second rushing TD was a thing-of-beauty read-option special. Granted, this was against the Jags, but Kaepernick also scored on an option play in Week 7 against the Tennessee Titans. He had only 16 pass attempts in Sunday's blowout, which is embarrassing for a fantasy QB, but if the guy is going to run seven times per week, it may not matter. The Niners are off in Week 9.

• Steven Jackson's first game in six weeks didn't exactly go well. Eleven carries for 6 yards? Uh, that's Michael Turner territory. Jackson had no room to run and thudded time after time into the Arizona Cardinals' front seven, never springing anything longer than 4 yards. The Cards are tough, but this is ridiculous. The Atlanta Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 and the Seahawks in Week 10, which is no easier. Something pretty dramatic will have to change if you're going to feel great about using any Falcons players. Well, except maybe Harry Douglas, who's gone off two straight games to the tune of 19 catches for 270 yards.

• Robert Griffin III took back all the goodwill he earned in Week 7, with a pathetic 7 yards on five carries, three turnovers, and 132 yards passing. Yikes. And it started so well, as the Washington Redskins were leading the Denver Broncos 21-7 before giving up 38 consecutive points. But RGIII was overmatched in the second half, succumbing to blitz after blitz, watching his receivers drop pass after pass, and hurting his left (non-ACL-torn) knee in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, that injury doesn't appear serious. The wound he inflicted on his fantasy owners Sunday? Deadly.

• Josh Gordon's 39-yard TD came on a gimmick play, the kind we love: a flea-flicker that gave Jason Campbell some confidence late in the first half that nearly led to a Cleveland Browns upset. Was Campbell perfect? Of course not. But the Kansas City Chiefs didn't sack him until partway through the fourth quarter, mostly because he was impressively mobile in the pocket. There's no way the Browns can in good conscience go back to Brandon Weeden. And if Gordon is still a member of the Browns after Tuesday's trade deadline, Campbell's presence will be a good thing for him.

• Dolphins RB Lamar Miller had 19 touches compared to 10 for Daniel Thomas on Sunday, hopefully injecting some sanity into one of the league's least-sane backfields. But it wasn't quite so simple; while Miller did get the game's first two series to himself, Thomas asserted himself on a second-quarter drive, gaining 15 yards on a fourth-and-1 and later scoring on a middle screen from Ryan Tannehill. On the year, that means Thomas has a 3-2 TD lead over Miller. I'm heartened to see Miller get more work. I'm not ready to say we're out of platoon-land.

• Saints TE Jimmy Graham seemed only to play in red zone situations and caught only three passes, but two of them went for TDs, and the second score involved the kind of crazy athletic stretch that indicates this guy's foot is eventually going to be OK. You can't sit Graham if he's active. Ever.

• Giants K Josh Brown had seven total field goals coming into Week 8. On Sunday, he kicked five. Meanwhile, Shaun Suisham had drilled 14 of 14 attempts entering Week 8, but on Sunday, he blew two attempts inside of 40 yards in a game the Steelers lost by three. Of course.

HacheMan · Oct 28, 2013

Four Downs: Huge day for pair of WRs

Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

One of the two wide receivers to provide fantasy owners with a season-best 36 standard points Sunday is already acknowledged as the best in the game, a future Hall of Famer, and is pretty clearly no longer hobbled by a knee problem. The other wide receiver began the day owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN standard leagues, barely known despite having scored touchdowns the previous two games. Welcome to fantasy football 2013, where the unexpected continues to be, well, relatively expected.
Detroit Lions great Calvin Johnson came within a whisker of breaking the all-time mark for receiving yards in a single game, settling for a ridiculous 329 yards on 14 catches, scoring one touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys. As amazing as it sounds, Megatron’s afternoon could have been better, as he was tackled inside the 5-yard line four times, the most in one game for a receiver since the start of 2001. Still, Johnson began the day a somewhat-disappointing seventh among wide receivers in season scoring, and while nobody needs reminding that he’s a terrific weekly play and wise trade target, sometimes it’s just nice to get those 36 points and smile … until you realize Johnson’s Lions are on bye in Week 9.
<OFFER>[h=4]Multiple WRs with 35+ Fantasy Pts
Same Week, Since 1960[/h]

Week 8, 2013	Calvin Johnson (DET) 36, Marvin Jones (CIN) 36
Week 11, 2007	Terrell Owens (DAL) 41, Randy Moss (NE) 36
Week 11, 2006	Lee Evans (BUF) 38, Chad Johnson (CIN) 37
Week 13, 1994	Sterling Sharpe (GB) 36, Mark Ingram (MIA) 35
Week 1, 1994	Irving Fryar (MIA) 39, Jerry Rice (SF) 36
Credit: ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft

Perhaps Cincinnati Bengals sophomore Marvin Jones becomes Johnson’s Week 9 replacement in many leagues. After all, it’s tough to overlook someone who scored four touchdowns, equaling his total for his 18-game career. The last wide receivers to catch four touchdowns in a game were Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, each in Week 11 of 2007. Jones, who added 122 receiving yards, is owned in 0.9 percent of leagues and was started in 0.4 percent, so he’s quite a bit different from Johnson. Then again, astute fantasy owners in deeper leagues should have already had Jones on the radar, as he scored 27 fantasy points the past two contests. Jones is no threat to colleague A.J. Green, a recognized top-five wide receiver, but he could earn himself a top-20 wide receiver ranking this coming week. For the record, these 36-point performances tied for 17th-most points at the position since 2000, according to ESPN Fantasy’s Tristan H. Cockcroft, and topped the previous single-game high for a wide receiver this season of 31 points by Antonio Brown in Week 3. Now, imagine if Johnson’s yards were combined with Jones’ touchdowns … wow!

Then there are the quarterbacks, and again, as with the wide receivers, comparisons between the Lions’ Matthew Stafford and Bengals’ Andy Dalton were scarce entering the week. Perhaps perception will alter soon, however. The universally owned Stafford threw for 488 yards and rushed for the winning touchdown, totaling 26 fantasy points. He averaged an outstanding 18.3 yards per attempt when targeting Johnson, 5.3 yards when targeting others. Being an effective passer on deep passes has been Dalton’s issue in the past; his 26.3 completion percentage on attempts of more than 20 yards downfield last year was 30th in the league. Dalton was erratic the first five weeks of this season, but has delivered a terrific three-week stretch lately, averaging 27 fantasy points. Dalton’s longest of five touchdowns Sunday went for 14 yards, but he also completed a pair of 53-yard plays to Green and a 45-yarder to Jones. Dalton is a top-10 fantasy quarterback for season scoring, and due to disappointing play by others he could soon start earning top-10 rankings as well.
Second down: As for those sliding quarterbacks, the New England Patriots’ Tom Brady threw for 116 yards, his worst performance since 2009, and his third single-digit fantasy game in four weeks. The Washington Redskins’ Robert Griffin III, throwing and running so well of late and entering a seemingly nice matchup in Denver, scored a season-low 3 fantasy points and left early with a left knee injury that appeared to be minor. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw four interceptions, after entering the week with three all season. One can make the case none of these players is a safe top-10 option at this point, and the Tuesday end-of-season rankings at quarterback will likely see many changes, with Dalton, the San Francisco 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick and the Oakland Raiders’ Terrelle Pryor moving up. The point is, who could have imagined anyone questioning Brady, a relatively healthy Griffin and Ryan in late October? Expect the unexpected!

Third down: The fantasy buzz Sunday morning was pointing at New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham and his foot injury. Graham was deemed active for the game by the Saints, but fantasy owners were concerned enough to leave him active in only 80.5 percent of leagues and search for lesser-known options, including Charles Clay, Jeff Cumberland and Andrew Quarless. Graham was used mainly as a red zone threat, converting two of his three catches (and targets) in the win over the Buffalo Bills into a pair of touchdowns, and a cool 15 fantasy points. The only other tight end to reach double digits in standard fantasy scoring Sunday (entering the night game) was the 49ers’ Vernon Davis. In other tight end news, the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski caught only two of five targets for two fantasy points, and the Denver Broncos’ Julius Thomas scored two fantasy points before leaving his game early with an ankle injury. The Broncos, like the Lions, New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, 49ers and, mercifully, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are on bye in Week 9.
Fourth down: Speaking of Cardinals, the top running back performance of Week 8 entering the Sunday night game was provided by rookie Andre Ellington, as he broke off an 80-yard touchdown run and finished with 162 total yards and 21 fantasy points. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Ellington’s 130 rushing yards before contact are third most for a player this season. Ellington, started in 10.8 percent of ESPN standard leagues, seemed a wise Week 8 flex play with starter Rashard Mendenhall out with a toe injury, but fantasy owners should be wary that the time-share resumes in Week 10, perhaps preventing Ellington from reaching immediate RB2 status. Ellington, a capable pass-catcher, hadn’t received more than seven rushing attempts in any game prior to Sunday, when he was awarded 15. As with the Bengals’ annoying time-share of rookie Giovani Bernard and slower veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- both really quiet statistically Sunday -- there’s little indication one player will suddenly see all the touches. Still, Ellington, owned in 21.1 percent of leagues, is a must-add this week, in case the Cardinals realize his potential and permit him to attain it.

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2013

Free-agent finds for Week 9

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 9's best fantasy roster additions:

(Week 9 byes: Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers)

Standard ESPN League Finds

Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (owned in 1.1 percent of ESPN leagues): It's not a great week for waiver adds. If you've got the top claim in your league, look at the "previous weeks" section below for a whole bunch of better options who are still unowned in more than half of ESPN leagues. But Jones made headlines in Week 8 by scoring an incredible four TDs versus the New York Jets, giving him six scores over the past three games. However, realize this: Unless there's an injury, Mohamed Sanu (0.9 percent) plays with A.J. Green in two-wide sets. Jones is on the field only when the Bengals go multiple, and in Sunday's game (according to ESPN Stats & Info), that meant he played on only 18 of 47 offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Sanu played 29 snaps. Jones hasn't even run a route out of a two-wide formation since Week 6. Does this mean Sanu is a more attractive waiver add than Jones? Absolutely not. But it does limit Jones' potential for consistent production. So far this year, the Bengals have had three or more WRs on the field on fewer than half of their offensive snaps. So you can add Jones, and I'll rank him among the top 40 receivers for Thursday's matchup against the Miami Dolphins. But your expectations should be held in check, unless Sanu can't play because of his shoulder injury.

Mike Tolbert, RB, Carolina Panthers (17.3 percent): The Panthers have been a backfield platoon team for years, but few expected that Tolbert would a leading member this season. While DeAngelo Williams leads Tolbert in total yards, 598-252, D-Willy almost never gets involved in high-leverage situations. He did score his first TD of 2013 last Thursday from 12 yards out, but Tolbert had a red-zone TD catch in that same game, his fifth score of the season. He's the third-down and goal-line back. Clearly, when an RB is averaging fewer than nine touches per game, he's tough to justify as a must-start or even a must-add. But there are far worse ideas if you're struggling to field a fantasy backfield. You know Tolbert's ceiling is low, but his floor is surprisingly high. He's averaged 13 fantasy points per game over his past three and has eclipsed the seven-point mark in four of seven games. Realize, however, that Jonathan Stewart could return soon, and that would dampen the values of both Williams and Tolbert.

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals (43.5 percent): What can I say? The Red Rifle is ablaze. In his past three games, Dalton has totaled 1,034 passing yards, 11 TDs and 2 INTs. He's on pace for a 4,498-yard passing season, which would shatter his previous career best by 823 yards. It seems to me that Dalton accumulates many of his stats on deep jump balls, and indeed 324 of his yards the past three weeks came on eight completions that traveled 20-plus yards in the air. But that's absolutely not a criticism; after all, don't we want QBs who can make big plays? The trouble I have is that on film, I see Dalton missing even more deep throws. I'm thinking of one this past Sunday that he blew to Mohamed Sanu down the deep middle, a play Sanu might have made (it was in his hands for a moment), but which was clearly overthrown and had too much air under it despite Sanu's being wide open. This is my way of saying: I believe Dalton will regress to his career mean. In his 40 NFL games, he's averaged 233 passing yards per contest and has regularly evinced a tendency to get flustered in the pocket under pressure. If some of these red-zone TD passes become runs, the numbers will decrease. But there's no sense being stubborn. Dalton is officially a high-level No. 2 fantasy QB, and if you feel the need to bench your underachieving starter for him in an effort to partake in his hot streak, I can't argue.

Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (1.1 percent): It shouldn't be an either/or question between Stills and disappointing Marques Colston. Stills is an outside receiver and a deep threat, while Colston mainly patrols the middle of the field. But it started to feel like Stills was supplanting Colston in Week 8 versus the Buffalo Bills, didn't it? Drew Brees tried to get Colston involved early, giving him three shots (on one, Colston fell down embarrassingly), including a patented seam route that could've been a TD but was an inaccurate throw. Yet it was left to Stills to make the big plays of the game, and he wound up with two TDs and has three in the Saints' past two games. I'm not dropping Colston yet. I understand if you're frustrated by his three straight horrible games. But realize that Stills hasn't eclipsed five targets in a game yet this season, something Colston has done five times. Stills can be rostered if you need a bye-week fill-in, and he has real talent. But Brees has so many weapons, and there's nothing on film that tells me Colston's game has changed.

Deji Karim, RB, Houston Texans (0.1 percent). As of this writing, it was unclear whether Arian Foster and/or Ben Tate would be able to play coming out of Houston's bye. Remember, Foster left Week 7's game early with a reinjured hamstring, while Tate broke four ribs in that same game. Tate claims he's going to play Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts, while Foster has been more equivocal, but all this carnage explains why the Texans signed Karim, Ray Graham (0.0 percent) and Dennis Johnson (0.1 percent) during their off week. Karim is the veteran of the group, and he performed well for the Texans in the preseason, so if neither Foster nor Tate can play Sunday, he'd be my favorite for a featured role. But watch out for Johnson. He's a short guy at 5-foot-7, but he's got some thickness to him plus has real long speed. He was also known as a good pass-protector at Arkansas.

Colts Defense (22.2 percent): I'm not fully sold on this unit, but its decent showing against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos a couple of weeks ago was impressive. More important, the Texans lineup it will face Sunday night will feature Case Keenum under center and could be without Foster and/or Tate. And the hard truth is that the Colts have played a nasty schedule, are 5-2, and their defense has registered 12, 22, 10, 1 and 8 fantasy points in their past five contests. In particular, keep an eye on Robert Mathis, whom I view as a top-five defensive MVP candidate to this point, and corner Vontae Davis, who's playing like he did five years ago with Miami and who'll see a bunch of Andre Johnson on Sunday.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals (21.1 percent); Zac Stacy, RB, Rams (21.7 percent); Andre Brown, RB, Giants (18.2 percent); Mike James, RB, Buccaneers (14.3 percent); Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (34.7 percent); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (5.0 percent); Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks (38.7 percent); Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers (34.1 percent); Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Colts (10.8 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (34.4 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (21.8 percent); Coby Fleener, TE, Colts (26.7 percent); Timothy Wright, TE, Buccaneers (0.4 percent); Garrett Graham, TE, Texans (20.7 percent).

Deeper League Finds

Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins (6.1 percent): The pickings really are slim this week. Thomas came out of the Dolphins' Week 6 bye and was the primary early-down back against the Bills, but order was seemingly restored Sunday against the New England Patriots, as Lamar Miller was featured. That said, Thomas played well on a second-quarter drive and scored on a middle screen. He's touched the ball 23 times in the past two weeks combined and has 16 combined fantasy points as a result. If I ran the Dolphins, I'd insist to Joe Philbin that the more talented Miller needs to be a 20-touch-per-week player. But I don't run the Dolphins.

James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers (14.5 percent): Starks returned from the knee injury that cost him three games, and Sunday night he carried it seven times for 57 yards and a TD against the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this game became a blowout in the second half, and Eddie Lacy dominated touches when the game was competitive, so you're probably not considering starting Starks in any-size fantasy league. But it's pretty clear that Starks would be a major part of the solution if Lacy gets hurt again.

Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots (4.2 percent): For two straight weeks, Dobson has been Tom Brady's split end. Under normal circumstances, the fact that Dobson appears to have supplanted Kenbrell Thompkins would be major fantasy news. Given how poor Brady's numbers are, though, it's hard to work up a lather. Dobson did connect for a lovely second-half TD against the Dolphins Sunday, and if he can keep the starting job in time for Brady to come around, he could end up being a steal. But don't go dropping a full-time productive player for him just yet. (Thompkins, on the other hand, can be dumped in 10-team leagues.)

Tashard Choice, RB, Bills (0.4 percent): C.J. Spiller was inactive for Sunday's loss versus the Saints, leaving Choice in the backup role behind Fred Jackson. He gained 35 yards on seven carries, while Jackson touched it 17 times and gained 52 yards. That ratio sounds about right. If Spiller sits out again in Week 9 because of his bad ankle, Choice would be a legit candidate for double-digit touches against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Drew Davis, WR, Atlanta Falcons (0.1 percent): When will Roddy White be ready to return from his hamstring and ankle injuries? It sounds like we're talking a matter of weeks now, so there's no guarantee he'll be back in time for Sunday's tilt against the Panthers, which means Davis could post another decent day. Against the Cardinals, he grabbed five passes for 77 yards and a score and was entrenched as the team's No. 2 WR opposite Harry Douglas. That's a role that can generate some fantasy pop, as Julio Jones has proved in recent years. Davis could wind up being a deep-league solution even when White returns, but my guess is he'll stay relevant only while White is out.

LaVon Brazill, WR, Colts (0.2 percent): How will the Colts offense work without Reggie Wayne, who's out with a torn ACL? Nobody really knows. T.Y. Hilton will play in two-receiver sets along with Darrius Heyward-Bey, enhancing his fantasy value by quite a bit. But will Brazill be the No. 3? Or will it be possession man Griff Whalen (0.0 percent), lately signed off the practice squad? Brazill would be most interesting, because he's got some legit deep-play ability. But it's fair to simply see how things play out.

Josh McCown, QB, Chicago Bears (0.3 percent): With Jay Cutler out for at least a month, McCown takes over under center, and in Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, you know he's got legit NFL-caliber weaponry. I've seen enough of McCown in Arizona and Oakland to be suspicious that things won't go well here. But he was strong in relief in Week 7.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders (25.3 percent); Jake Locker, QB, Titans (5.6 percent); Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (49.7 percent); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (2.9 percent); Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints (0.8 percent); Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (2.1 percent); Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots (3.7 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (13.6 percent); Kris Durham, WR, Lions (1.0 percent); Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers (4.5 percent); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (2.4 percent); Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets (4.9 percent); Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers (5.1 percent); Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (7.1 percent); Dallas Clark, TE, Ravens (5.3 percent); Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions (30.6 percent); Jeff Cumberland, TE, Jets (14.0 percent); Andrew Quarless, TE, Packers (3.8 percent).

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2013

[h=1]Second-half breakout fantasy RBs[/h][h=3]Chris Johnson among RBs who could have big stretch runs[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

It is difficult to find a time when the running back position in fantasy football was weaker than it is right now. There may be no better illustration of this than this depressing fact: Chris Johnson has posted only two double-digit fantasy point games this year, hasn't reached the 100-yard rushing mark in a contest and yet he's still tied for 17th in running back fantasy points.
That is but one of many examples showing how difficult it is to get any type of consistent scoring from fantasy running backs, and it has most fantasy owners scrambling for any type of personnel upgrades for the second half of the season.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article looks to assist owners in this predicament by detailing a collection of running backs who have very good chances of posting quality point totals from Weeks 9-17. Three of these backs are potential buy-low trade options, with the rest being either potential waiver picks or trade-and-stash options.
Chris Johnson
The disappointment of Johnson's owners has less to do with his production-to-draft value ratio (he ranked 15th in running back ADP) than with their hope that he could see a return to his formerly dominant days.
He may never get back to that elite level, but part of why he has tallied less than 50 rushing yards per game in his past four contests is that the Titans faced the Jets, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers defenses in that time frame. Those four groups rank in the top half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game and are all capable of shutting down opposing ground games. <OFFER></OFFER>
Tennessee's run defense schedule gets a whole lot easier from here on out, as the Titans have a total of six games against St. Louis, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston. All of these platoons rank in the bottom 10 of the league in rush yards allowed per game and the Jaguars (whom the Titans face in Weeks 10 and, more important, Week 16) are by far the worst rush defense in the league. Paying a solid RB2 price in a trade for Johnson would be fair based on his current performance but it should be a steal based on his likely stretch run performance.

Ray Rice
Injuries are a big part of why Rice has fallen short of expectations and why he has fewer points this year than Lamar Miller, Mike Tolbert, Bilal Powell or Jacquizz Rodgers.
Rice now claims to be back at full strength due in part to resting up during Baltimore's bye week and his 72 combined rushes/targets in Weeks 5-7 indicate the Ravens are not going to switch to a platoon workload distribution in the foreseeable future.
Those positive factors offer ample value on their own and that value increases dramatically when noting Baltimore is due to face Chicago, Pittsburgh and New England in Weeks 11, 13 and 16. The Bears and Steelers both rank in the bottom seven in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs, while the Patriots have given up 100 or more rushing yards to opposing running backs in six of their eight games. Rice is apt to see a return to double-digit fantasy point form in these contests and thus is a terrific buy-low candidate or a valuable hold candidate for teams that currently have him on the roster.
Arian Foster
Foster's injury situation is troubling enough that Houston coach Gary Kubiak recently noted that he is "very concerned" about the state of the Texans running back corps.
It is normally advised to avoid players with this type of physical question mark, especially when that is combined with a midseason quarterback change. But Foster is the type of back for whom one can make an exception and that goes double given that he has a second-half schedule that includes five matchups against the aforementioned weak run defenses of Indianapolis, Jacksonville and New England. Don't sell Foster low if he is on your team's roster and aim to buy him low if he ends up on the trading block in your league.
Willis McGahee
Why would anyone want to acquire a back who has posted a meager 25 fantasy points since Week 3? In McGahee's case, the answer to that question should be framed around the idea that no one would want to trade for a back who was due to face the Bengals, Packers and Chiefs defenses, which were three of the tough run defense matchups that shut down the Browns rushing attack during that time frame.
One would want to trade for a running back on a team that has one of the most favorable run defense schedules in the league for the rest of the season. Jacksonville, New England, Pittsburgh and Chicago make up five of the Browns' last six opponents. Even if that slate doesn't move McGahee into a weekly starting running back slot, it should vault him into solid flex candidate contention.
Andre Ellington
Ellington's 21-point burst this past week will place him very high on waiver wires but there may be some trepidation in starting him given that he has only one game with double-digit rush attempts this season. That hesitance needs to go by the wayside, as Arizona faces Houston, Jacksonville and Indianapolis in Weeks 10-12. If you are lucky enough to claim Ellington, also avoid the temptation to trade high to fill in for him during the Cardinals' Week 9 bye -- stick by him and reap the rewards.
James Starks and Johnathan Franklin
These two have both been in the double-digit range in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures a runner's productivity on run plays with good blocking. They also are playing behind an offensive blocking wall that is only a couple of percentage points away from topping the 50 percent mark in GBR. That bar serves as the elite benchmark in GBR and the Packers should get to that level with a schedule that includes matchups against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit. Eddie Lacy's potential durability issues make them good bench stash players in any league and they are especially valuable prospects in deep leagues.

HacheMan · Oct 29, 2013

Consistency Ratings: Week 9

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

A thought for Brian Schottenheimer: How about calling a running play once in a while when near the goal line?

Schottenheimer's St. Louis Rams have, within their opponents' 3-yard line, run the ball only once on 10 snaps, making them by far the most pass-reliant team in scoring position in the league. You saw it on Monday night: Five times in the fourth quarter the Rams were within three yards of the end zone, and three of those times Kellen Clemens threw an incomplete pass, once he was sacked. Daryl Richardson was halted at the line of scrimmage the other time.

Zac Stacy's owners, having witnessed this as well as Clemens' miserable performance, might have their doubts about his extending his current string of back-to-back double-digit fantasy performances. Simply put, they shouldn't.

Now, let's first point out that Stacy suffered an ankle injury late in Monday's game, perhaps the reason he didn't receive a carry on any of those final three plays up close and something that could adversely impact him in coming weeks. That has a bearing on his status for Week 9 and beyond.

But if Stacy gets through the injury fine, his string of four consecutive "Start" performances makes him a legitimate contender for RB2 status. Bear in mind that in the past two weeks his matchups were poor: @CAR in Week 7, SEA in Week 8; those teams have afforded opposing running backs the 10th- and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to date.

In addition, even the slightest shift in play calling could earn Stacy the occasional look at the goal line, which would boost his prospects of double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis. With Sam Bradford now out for the season and Clemens starting -- though there's an outstanding chance a quarterback other than Clemens will log more starts for the Rams from this point forward -- Stacy might be asked to carry the football close to 20 times per week.

Available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues, Stacy is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football.

He's not alone. Here are four other underrated folks, using consistency numbers:

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: He absorbs too much criticism for A) his "injury history," which has amounted to exactly zero missed games since the beginning of 2011, B) his mere 20 passing touchdowns in 2012, which were at least somewhat impacted by inexplicably bad luck, and C) that 14-point Week 5, which was largely the product of Calvin Johnson's absence.

Here's the truth about Stafford: He has warranted a "Start" in fantasy -- that's a top-10 fantasy point total in the given week -- in 23 of his 40 games since the beginning of 2011, his resulting 57.5 percent Consistency Rating fourth behind only Drew Brees (79.5), Aaron Rodgers (71.8) and Tom Brady (60.0) during that time. Stafford is also fifth in total fantasy points during that time span with 758, and to illustrate his weekly reliability, Brees (1) and Peyton Manning (1) are the only players who have been Stiffs -- that's a point total outside the top 20 -- less often than him (3) in that period.

The fact that Stafford throws so often and has a multitude of weapons limited not solely to Calvin Johnson but also including Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and Kris Durham actually makes him one of the most consistent weekly performers, a valuable thing in a season with as many injuries and disappointments as this.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins: The Redskins might be right up there with the Rams in terms of play calling at the goal line -- they have attempted just four rushing plays out of 10 within the opponent's 3, the second-lowest rate in the league -- so perhaps this is as much about Morris' own team as it is his fantasy owners underrating him.

The truth is that Morris has been one of the most effective goal-line backs during his year and a half in the league:

• Within the opponent's 5-yard line (39.5 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 60.0 percent success rate (9-for-15 in TDs) ranks third out of 31 running backs with at least 10 attempts.
• Within the opponent's 3-yard line (46.6 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 66.7 percent success rate (8-for-12 in TDs) ranks fourth out of 28 running backs with at least eight attempts.
• Within the opponent's 1-yard line (56.5 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 85.7 percent success rate (6-for-7 in TDs) ranks third out of 22 running backs with at least five attempts.

In fairness, Roy Helu is 2-for-3 scoring touchdowns within the opponent's 5-yard line, matching Morris' performance in those situations exactly, but Morris' more extensive track record makes him the smarter bet up close going forward. It also helps explain how he has warranted the start in fantasy 82.6 percent of the time during his NFL career, the highest Consistency Rating of any running back since 2010, despite the fact that only three times in 23 games has he registered a weekly score among his position's top five.

Role is what props Morris up as a borderline top-10 running back -- if not one within that group -- so don't get too caught up by Helu's recent stats.

Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Perhaps lost in all the postgame hubbub surrounding Dez Bryant's sideline outbursts is the fact that Williams, a recent fill-in, has scored a receiving touchdown in four consecutive games, earning him fantasy Start status in each of those weeks. It might not be long before Miles Austin's practice reports aren't relevant in fantasy.

I'd argue that they aren't now.

Granted, Williams has enjoyed recent success partly because of his ascension to the starting lineup, as well as an extremely favorable set of matchups that included five consecutive games against teams ranked among the eight worst at preventing wide receiver fantasy production. But as I said during my Tuesday Spreecast with colleague Eric Karabell, Williams' remaining schedule is no less attractive than what's in his past:

Week 9, MIN: 8th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 10, @NO: Toughest matchup left on Williams' schedule.
Week 12, @NYG: Tony Romo has averaged 323 passing yards with 12 total TDs against the Giants in their past five meetings
Week 13, OAK: 14th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 14, @CHI: 13th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 15, GB: Allowed 132 FPTS to WRs in their first five games
Week 16, @WSH: 3rd-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs Week 17, PHI: 2nd-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs

In addition, while Williams has in the past been described somewhat of a "raw" prospect, keep in mind that he has now gone four consecutive games without a drop, and his 67.7 percent catch rate (percentage of his targets that were caught) the past five weeks combined ranks 19th. He's quickly developing into a reliable weekly WR3 with WR2 upside, yet somehow he remains available in more than 40 percent of ESPN leagues.

[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2012 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:

<CENTER>Start</CENTER> <CENTER>Stud</CENTER> <CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QB Top 10 Top 2 21st+
RB Top 25 Top 5 51st+
WR Top 25 Top 5 51st+
TE Top 10 Top 2 21st+
K Top 10 Top 2 21st+
D/ST Top 10 Top 2 21st+

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.

Indianapolis Colts D/ST: This one is more about performance relative to difficulty of schedule rather than consistency, though the Colts D/ST's 42.9 percent Consistency Rating nevertheless ranks a healthy eighth (they're ninth in fantasy points with 64 in seven games).

Loyal followers of the weekly Consistency Ratings might recall the old "Stack" score; this is the number of fantasy points a player -- or in this case, team D/ST -- scored comparative to the average weekly amount his opponent typically allows to his position. So, for example, total the fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks for all eight of Peyton Manning's foes to date and you'd get 139.8; Manning has 215 points for an NFL-leading Stack score of 75.2 (Jamaal Charles' 72.8 ranks second).

The Colts D/ST, meanwhile, has a Stack score of 11.8, eighth best among D/STs, having outperformed the expected fantasy output in four of their seven games: Week 3 at San Francisco (scored 12, 49ers allow 4.5 to opposing D/ST), Week 4 at Jacksonville (scored 22, Jaguars allow 13.4), Week 5 versus Seattle (10 and 7.5) and Week 7 versus Denver (8 and -0.5). Though they have the NFL's worst Consistency Rating since the beginning of 2010 (25.5 percent), the Colts aren't getting enough credit for those kinds of performances, at least in the matchups department, a point colleague Christopher Harris also made in his Free Agent Finds column. Robert Mathis currently leads all defensive linemen in IDP fantasy points per game, while linebacker Jerrell Freeman ranks 14th.

And here's why that's particularly relevant: The Colts D/ST remains available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues, and it has quite a few attractive matchups in the final nine weeks, during which the team will play every week. They include:

• Two matchups against the Houston Texans (Weeks 9 and 15), who have afforded opposing D/STs the third-most fantasy points per game, have Case Keenum starting at quarterback and a Week 9 running back picture entirely in question with Arian Foster and Ben Tate nursing injuries.
• One against the Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 17), who have afforded opposing D/STs the second-most fantasy points per game.
• One against the Arizona Cardinals (Week 12), who have committed the second-most turnovers (18).
• One against the St. Louis Rams (Week 10), who just got a miserable 16.5 QBR out of Sam Bradford's fill-in, Kellen Clemens, this past week.

[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort.

Players must have at least a 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player <CENTER>Team</CENTER> <CENTER>%</CENTER> <CENTER>Pos</CENTER> <CENTER>G</CENTER> <CENTER>Start</CENTER> <CENTER>Stud</CENTER> <CENTER>Stiff</CENTER> <CENTER>Sat</CENTER> <CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal Charles KC 100.0% RB 8 8 4 0 0 100.0%
Matt Forte Chi 100.0% RB 7 7 3 0 0 100.0%
Peyton Manning Den 87.5% QB 8 7 3 0 0 87.5%
Wes Welker Den 87.5% WR 8 7 0 0 0 87.5%
Jordan Cameron Cle 87.5% TE 8 7 1 1 0 87.5%
Fred Jackson Buf 87.5% RB 8 7 1 0 0 87.5%
LeSean McCoy Phi 87.5% RB 8 7 3 0 0 75.0%
Frank Gore SF 87.5% RB 8 7 2 0 0 75.0%
Drew Brees NO 85.7% QB 7 6 3 0 0 85.7%
Jordy Nelson GB 85.7% WR 7 6 1 0 0 85.7%
Alfred Morris Wsh 85.7% RB 7 6 0 0 0 85.7%
Adrian Peterson Min 85.7% RB 7 6 2 0 0 71.4%
Julius Thomas Den 75.0% TE 8 6 2 1 0 75.0%
Matthew Stafford Det 75.0% QB 8 6 1 0 0 75.0%
Knowshon Moreno Den 75.0% RB 8 6 4 0 0 75.0%
Seahawks D/ST Sea 75.0% D/ST 8 6 1 0 0 75.0%
49ers D/ST SF 75.0% D/ST 8 6 1 2 0 75.0%
Dez Bryant Dal 75.0% WR 8 6 3 2 0 62.5%
Julio Jones Atl 71.4% WR 5 5 1 0 2 71.4%
Arian Foster Hou 71.4% RB 7 5 1 0 0 71.4%
Jimmy Graham NO 71.4% TE 7 5 4 1 0 71.4%
Darren McFadden Oak 71.4% RB 6 5 1 0 1 71.4%
Aaron Rodgers GB 71.4% QB 7 5 1 1 0 71.4%
Eddie Lacy GB 71.4% RB 6 5 1 1 1 71.4%
Panthers D/ST Car 71.4% D/ST 7 5 2 1 0 71.4%
Brandon Marshall Chi 71.4% WR 7 5 1 0 0 57.1%
DeAngelo Williams Car 71.4% RB 7 5 0 0 0 57.1%
Chris Johnson Ten 71.4% RB 7 5 0 0 0 42.9%
Reggie Bush Det 62.5% RB 7 5 3 0 1 75.0%
DeMarco Murray Dal 62.5% RB 6 5 1 0 2 62.5%
Chiefs D/ST KC 62.5% D/ST 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
Marshawn Lynch Sea 62.5% RB 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
Matt Prater Den 62.5% K 8 5 1 1 0 62.5%
Stephen Gostkowski NE 62.5% K 8 5 2 1 0 62.5%
Demaryius Thomas Den 62.5% WR 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
A.J. Green Cin 62.5% WR 8 5 2 1 0 62.5%
Calvin Johnson Det 62.5% WR 7 5 3 2 1 62.5%
Vernon Davis SF 62.5% TE 7 5 2 1 1 50.0%
Doug Martin TB 57.1% RB 6 4 0 0 1 57.1%
Garrett Hartley NO 57.1% K 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Matt Ryan Atl 57.1% QB 7 4 0 0 0 57.1%
Charles Clay Mia 57.1% RB 7 4 0 0 0 57.1%
Philip Rivers SD 57.1% QB 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Antonio Gates SD 57.1% TE 7 4 0 2 0 57.1%
Andrew Luck Ind 57.1% QB 7 4 1 1 0 57.1%
Justin Tucker Bal 57.1% K 7 4 1 2 0 57.1%
Robbie Gould Chi 57.1% K 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Antonio Brown Pit 57.1% WR 7 4 1 0 0 57.1%
Mason Crosby GB 57.1% K 7 4 2 2 0 57.1%
Denarius Moore Oak 57.1% WR 7 4 0 1 0 42.9%
Jermichael Finley GB 57.1% TE 6 4 1 2 1 42.9%
Martellus Bennett Chi 57.1% TE 7 4 1 1 0 42.9%
Ryan Mathews SD 57.1% RB 7 4 1 1 0 42.9%
DeSean Jackson Phi 50.0% WR 8 4 2 2 0 62.5%
Russell Wilson Sea 50.0% QB 8 4 0 2 0 50.0%
Dan Carpenter Buf 50.0% K 8 4 0 1 0 50.0%
Cowboys D/ST Dal 50.0% D/ST 8 4 1 3 0 50.0%
Tony Romo Dal 50.0% QB 8 4 1 1 0 50.0%
Victor Cruz NYG 50.0% WR 8 4 2 1 0 50.0%
Larry Fitzgerald Ari 50.0% WR 8 4 1 2 0 50.0%
Josh Gordon Cle 50.0% WR 6 4 1 1 2 50.0%
Dan Bailey Dal 50.0% K 8 4 2 3 0 50.0%
Bengals D/ST Cin 50.0% D/ST 8 4 1 2 0 50.0%
Andre Ellington Ari 50.0% RB 8 4 1 1 0 50.0%
Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 50.0% RB 8 4 0 0 0 50.0%
Nick Folk NYJ 50.0% K 8 4 0 2 0 50.0%
Terrance Williams Dal 50.0% WR 8 4 1 3 0 37.5%
Marvin Jones Cin 50.0% WR 8 4 1 4 0 37.5%
Zac Stacy StL 50.0% RB 6 4 0 2 2 25.0%
Danny Woodhead SD 42.9% RB 7 3 1 1 0 85.7%
Andre Johnson Hou 42.9% WR 7 3 0 2 0 57.1%
Jacquizz Rodgers Atl 42.9% RB 7 3 2 1 0 57.1%
Torrey Smith Bal 42.9% WR 7 3 1 1 0 57.1%
Reggie Wayne Ind 42.9% WR 7 3 0 1 0 57.1%
Randall Cobb GB 42.9% WR 5 3 0 0 2 42.9%
Jason Snelling Atl 42.9% RB 6 3 1 1 1 42.9%
Vincent Jackson TB 42.9% WR 7 3 2 2 0 42.9%
Shaun Suisham Pit 42.9% K 7 3 2 3 0 42.9%
Steve Smith Car 42.9% WR 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Jay Cutler Chi 42.9% QB 7 3 0 2 0 42.9%
Matt Schaub Hou 42.9% QB 6 3 0 3 1 42.9%
Colts D/ST Ind 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 2 0 42.9%
Trent Richardson Ind 42.9% RB 7 3 0 0 0 42.9%
Titans D/ST Ten 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 1 0 42.9%
Nick Novak SD 42.9% K 7 3 2 4 0 42.9%
Bears D/ST Chi 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 3 0 42.9%
Jake Locker Ten 42.9% QB 5 3 0 1 2 42.9%
Alshon Jeffery Chi 42.9% WR 7 3 2 3 0 42.9%
Eddie Royal SD 42.9% WR 7 3 1 3 0 42.9%
Coby Fleener Ind 42.9% TE 7 3 0 4 0 42.9%
Adam Vinatieri Ind 42.9% K 7 3 2 1 0 42.9%
Cam Newton Car 42.9% QB 7 3 2 2 0 42.9%
Ted Ginn Car 42.9% WR 7 3 0 3 0 42.9%
Greg Olsen Car 42.9% TE 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Lamar Miller Mia 42.9% RB 7 3 0 2 0 42.9%
Kyle Rudolph Min 42.9% TE 7 3 0 4 0 42.9%
Packers D/ST GB 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 2 0 42.9%
Saints D/ST NO 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Raiders D/ST Oak 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Mike Tolbert Car 42.9% RB 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Le'Veon Bell Pit 42.9% RB 4 3 0 0 3 42.9%
James Jones GB 42.9% WR 5 3 0 2 2 28.6%
Daniel Thomas Mia 42.9% RB 7 3 0 2 0 28.6%
Marlon Brown Bal 42.9% WR 6 3 0 2 1 14.3%
Giovani Bernard Cin 37.5% RB 8 3 1 0 0 62.5%
Bilal Powell NYJ 37.5% RB 8 3 0 1 0 50.0%
Eric Decker Den 37.5% WR 8 3 2 1 0 50.0%
Joique Bell Det 37.5% RB 8 3 2 0 0 50.0%
Brandon Bolden NE 37.5% RB 6 3 0 2 2 50.0%
Sam Bradford StL 37.5% QB 7 3 0 1 1 37.5%
Browns D/ST Cle 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 2 0 37.5%
Kenbrell Thompkins NE 37.5% WR 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
David Akers Det 37.5% K 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Jason Witten Dal 37.5% TE 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Lions D/ST Det 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 3 0 37.5%
Geno Smith NYJ 37.5% QB 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
Steven Hauschka Sea 37.5% K 8 3 0 1 0 37.5%
Bills D/ST Buf 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Alex Smith KC 37.5% QB 8 3 0 2 0 37.5%
Ryan Succop KC 37.5% K 8 3 0 4 0 37.5%
Cardinals D/ST Ari 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Greg Zuerlein StL 37.5% K 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Patriots D/ST NE 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 1 0 37.5%
Steve Johnson Buf 37.5% WR 7 3 0 2 1 37.5%
Broncos D/ST Den 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Scott Chandler Buf 37.5% TE 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
Golden Tate Sea 37.5% WR 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Rams D/ST StL 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Andy Dalton Cin 37.5% QB 8 3 2 3 0 37.5%
Colin Kaepernick SF 37.5% QB 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Jay Feely Ari 37.5% K 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Stevan Ridley NE 37.5% RB 7 3 1 0 1 37.5%
Josh Brown NYG 37.5% K 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Rueben Randle NYG 37.5% WR 8 3 1 4 0 25.0%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis Cin 37.5% RB 8 3 0 1 0 25.0%
Rashard Mendenhall Ari 37.5% RB 7 3 0 1 1 25.0%
Pierre Thomas NO 28.6% RB 7 2 1 0 0 57.1%
Pierre Garcon Wsh 28.6% WR 7 2 1 0 0 42.9%
Darren Sproles NO 28.6% RB 7 2 1 1 0 42.9%
Roy Helu Wsh 28.6% RB 7 2 1 2 0 42.9%
Ray Rice Bal 28.6% RB 6 2 1 2 1 42.9%
Jordan Reed Wsh 28.6% TE 6 2 1 1 1 42.9%
Mike Wallace Mia 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Tony Gonzalez Atl 28.6% TE 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Caleb Sturgis Mia 28.6% K 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Blair Walsh Min 28.6% K 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Brian Hartline Mia 28.6% WR 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Matt Bryant Atl 28.6% K 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Buccaneers D/ST TB 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Brandon LaFell Car 28.6% WR 7 2 0 4 0 28.6%
Jerome Simpson Min 28.6% WR 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Dolphins D/ST Mia 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Marques Colston NO 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Sebastian Janikowski Oak 28.6% K 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Robert Griffin III Wsh 28.6% QB 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Graham Gano Car 28.6% K 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Vikings D/ST Min 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Nate Washington Ten 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
T.Y. Hilton Ind 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Ravens D/ST Bal 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 1 0 28.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw Ind 28.6% RB 3 2 1 0 4 28.6%
Bernard Pierce Bal 28.6% RB 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Ben Tate Hou 28.6% RB 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Keenan Allen SD 28.6% WR 6 2 0 2 1 28.6%
Dallas Clark Bal 28.6% TE 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Kendall Wright Ten 28.6% WR 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Chargers D/ST SD 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Redskins D/ST Wsh 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 1 0 28.6%
Emmanuel Sanders Pit 28.6% WR 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
James Starks GB 28.6% RB 4 2 1 1 3 28.6%
Timothy Wright TB 28.6% WR 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Steelers D/ST Pit 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Kenny Stills NO 28.6% WR 7 2 1 4 0 28.6%
Rian Lindell TB 28.6% K 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Harry Douglas Atl 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Jarrett Boykin GB 28.6% WR 7 2 0 4 0 28.6%
Garrett Graham Hou 28.6% TE 7 2 0 4 0 14.3%
Mike Williams TB 28.6% WR 6 2 0 3 1 0.0%
Levine Toilolo Atl 28.6% TE 7 2 0 5 0 0.0%
Cecil Shorts Jac 25.0% WR 8 2 0 2 0 62.5%
Julian Edelman NE 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 37.5%
Michael Vick Phi 25.0% QB 6 2 1 1 2 25.0%
Alex Henery Phi 25.0% K 8 2 1 3 0 25.0%
Anquan Boldin SF 25.0% WR 8 2 1 3 0 25.0%
Austin Pettis StL 25.0% WR 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Hakeem Nicks NYG 25.0% WR 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
C.J. Spiller Buf 25.0% RB 7 2 0 1 1 25.0%
Phil Dawson SF 25.0% K 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Justin Blackmon Jac 25.0% WR 4 2 1 0 4 25.0%
Dwayne Bowe KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 25.0%
Chris Ogbonnaya Cle 25.0% RB 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Mike Nugent Cin 25.0% K 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Jets D/ST NYJ 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Sidney Rice Sea 25.0% WR 8 2 1 6 0 25.0%
Jeremy Kerley NYJ 25.0% WR 7 2 0 4 1 25.0%
Zach Miller Sea 25.0% TE 6 2 0 3 2 25.0%
Dexter McCluster KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Dexter McCluster KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Eagles D/ST Phi 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Mike Brown Jac 25.0% WR 4 2 0 1 4 25.0%
Giants D/ST NYG 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Peyton Hillis NYG 25.0% RB 2 2 0 0 6 25.0%
Joseph Fauria Det 25.0% TE 8 2 1 5 0 12.5%
Donnie Avery KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Jeff Cumberland NYJ 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Brent Celek Phi 25.0% TE 8 2 0 5 0 12.5%
Lance Kendricks StL 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Kris Durham Det 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Da'Rel Scott NYG 25.0% RB 5 2 0 2 3 12.5%
Joseph Randle Dal 25.0% RB 5 2 0 2 3 12.5%
Michael Floyd Ari 25.0% WR 8 2 0 2 0 12.5%
Kendall Hunter SF 25.0% RB 8 2 0 2 0 12.5%
Aaron Dobson NE 25.0% WR 7 2 0 2 1 12.5%
Jermaine Gresham Cin 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Heath Miller Pit 14.3% TE 5 1 0 2 2 28.6%
Owen Daniels Hou 14.3% TE 5 1 0 1 2 28.6%
Donald Brown Ind 14.3% RB 7 1 0 2 0 28.6%
Delanie Walker Ten 14.3% TE 7 1 0 2 0 28.6%
Falcons D/ST Atl 14.3% D/ST 7 1 0 3 0 14.3%
Texans D/ST Hou 14.3% D/ST 7 1 0 2 0 14.3%
Riley Cooper Phi 12.5% WR 8 1 1 5 0 25.0%
Jared Cook StL 12.5% TE 8 1 1 4 0 25.0%
Kellen Winslow NYJ 12.5% TE 5 1 0 2 3 25.0%
Brandon Myers NYG 12.5% TE 8 1 0 5 0 25.0%
Daryl Richardson StL 12.5% RB 8 1 0 4 0 25.0%
Jaguars D/ST Jac 0.0% D/ST 8 0 0 6 0 0.0%

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HacheMan · Oct 29, 2013

Consistency Ratings: Week 9

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

A thought for Brian Schottenheimer: How about calling a running play once in a while when near the goal line?

Schottenheimer's St. Louis Rams have, within their opponents' 3-yard line, run the ball only once on 10 snaps, making them by far the most pass-reliant team in scoring position in the league. You saw it on Monday night: Five times in the fourth quarter the Rams were within three yards of the end zone, and three of those times Kellen Clemens threw an incomplete pass, once he was sacked. Daryl Richardson was halted at the line of scrimmage the other time.

Zac Stacy's owners, having witnessed this as well as Clemens' miserable performance, might have their doubts about his extending his current string of back-to-back double-digit fantasy performances. Simply put, they shouldn't.

Now, let's first point out that Stacy suffered an ankle injury late in Monday's game, perhaps the reason he didn't receive a carry on any of those final three plays up close and something that could adversely impact him in coming weeks. That has a bearing on his status for Week 9 and beyond.

But if Stacy gets through the injury fine, his string of four consecutive "Start" performances makes him a legitimate contender for RB2 status. Bear in mind that in the past two weeks his matchups were poor: @CAR in Week 7, SEA in Week 8; those teams have afforded opposing running backs the 10th- and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to date.

In addition, even the slightest shift in play calling could earn Stacy the occasional look at the goal line, which would boost his prospects of double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis. With Sam Bradford now out for the season and Clemens starting -- though there's an outstanding chance a quarterback other than Clemens will log more starts for the Rams from this point forward -- Stacy might be asked to carry the football close to 20 times per week.

Available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues, Stacy is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football.

He's not alone. Here are four other underrated folks, using consistency numbers:

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: He absorbs too much criticism for A) his "injury history," which has amounted to exactly zero missed games since the beginning of 2011, B) his mere 20 passing touchdowns in 2012, which were at least somewhat impacted by inexplicably bad luck, and C) that 14-point Week 5, which was largely the product of Calvin Johnson's absence.

Here's the truth about Stafford: He has warranted a "Start" in fantasy -- that's a top-10 fantasy point total in the given week -- in 23 of his 40 games since the beginning of 2011, his resulting 57.5 percent Consistency Rating fourth behind only Drew Brees (79.5), Aaron Rodgers (71.8) and Tom Brady (60.0) during that time. Stafford is also fifth in total fantasy points during that time span with 758, and to illustrate his weekly reliability, Brees (1) and Peyton Manning (1) are the only players who have been Stiffs -- that's a point total outside the top 20 -- less often than him (3) in that period.

The fact that Stafford throws so often and has a multitude of weapons limited not solely to Calvin Johnson but also including Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and Kris Durham actually makes him one of the most consistent weekly performers, a valuable thing in a season with as many injuries and disappointments as this.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins: The Redskins might be right up there with the Rams in terms of play calling at the goal line -- they have attempted just four rushing plays out of 10 within the opponent's 3, the second-lowest rate in the league -- so perhaps this is as much about Morris' own team as it is his fantasy owners underrating him.

The truth is that Morris has been one of the most effective goal-line backs during his year and a half in the league:

• Within the opponent's 5-yard line (39.5 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 60.0 percent success rate (9-for-15 in TDs) ranks third out of 31 running backs with at least 10 attempts.
• Within the opponent's 3-yard line (46.6 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 66.7 percent success rate (8-for-12 in TDs) ranks fourth out of 28 running backs with at least eight attempts.
• Within the opponent's 1-yard line (56.5 percent league TD conversion rate on runs): Morris' 85.7 percent success rate (6-for-7 in TDs) ranks third out of 22 running backs with at least five attempts.

In fairness, Roy Helu is 2-for-3 scoring touchdowns within the opponent's 5-yard line, matching Morris' performance in those situations exactly, but Morris' more extensive track record makes him the smarter bet up close going forward. It also helps explain how he has warranted the start in fantasy 82.6 percent of the time during his NFL career, the highest Consistency Rating of any running back since 2010, despite the fact that only three times in 23 games has he registered a weekly score among his position's top five.

Role is what props Morris up as a borderline top-10 running back -- if not one within that group -- so don't get too caught up by Helu's recent stats.

Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Perhaps lost in all the postgame hubbub surrounding Dez Bryant's sideline outbursts is the fact that Williams, a recent fill-in, has scored a receiving touchdown in four consecutive games, earning him fantasy Start status in each of those weeks. It might not be long before Miles Austin's practice reports aren't relevant in fantasy.

I'd argue that they aren't now.

Granted, Williams has enjoyed recent success partly because of his ascension to the starting lineup, as well as an extremely favorable set of matchups that included five consecutive games against teams ranked among the eight worst at preventing wide receiver fantasy production. But as I said during my Tuesday Spreecast with colleague Eric Karabell, Williams' remaining schedule is no less attractive than what's in his past:

Week 9, MIN: 8th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 10, @NO: Toughest matchup left on Williams' schedule.
Week 12, @NYG: Tony Romo has averaged 323 passing yards with 12 total TDs against the Giants in their past five meetings
Week 13, OAK: 14th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 14, @CHI: 13th-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
Week 15, GB: Allowed 132 FPTS to WRs in their first five games
Week 16, @WSH: 3rd-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs Week 17, PHI: 2nd-most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs

In addition, while Williams has in the past been described somewhat of a "raw" prospect, keep in mind that he has now gone four consecutive games without a drop, and his 67.7 percent catch rate (percentage of his targets that were caught) the past five weeks combined ranks 19th. He's quickly developing into a reliable weekly WR3 with WR2 upside, yet somehow he remains available in more than 40 percent of ESPN leagues.

[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2012 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:

<CENTER>Start</CENTER> <CENTER>Stud</CENTER> <CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QB Top 10 Top 2 21st+
RB Top 25 Top 5 51st+
WR Top 25 Top 5 51st+
TE Top 10 Top 2 21st+
K Top 10 Top 2 21st+
D/ST Top 10 Top 2 21st+

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Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.

Indianapolis Colts D/ST: This one is more about performance relative to difficulty of schedule rather than consistency, though the Colts D/ST's 42.9 percent Consistency Rating nevertheless ranks a healthy eighth (they're ninth in fantasy points with 64 in seven games).

Loyal followers of the weekly Consistency Ratings might recall the old "Stack" score; this is the number of fantasy points a player -- or in this case, team D/ST -- scored comparative to the average weekly amount his opponent typically allows to his position. So, for example, total the fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks for all eight of Peyton Manning's foes to date and you'd get 139.8; Manning has 215 points for an NFL-leading Stack score of 75.2 (Jamaal Charles' 72.8 ranks second).

The Colts D/ST, meanwhile, has a Stack score of 11.8, eighth best among D/STs, having outperformed the expected fantasy output in four of their seven games: Week 3 at San Francisco (scored 12, 49ers allow 4.5 to opposing D/ST), Week 4 at Jacksonville (scored 22, Jaguars allow 13.4), Week 5 versus Seattle (10 and 7.5) and Week 7 versus Denver (8 and -0.5). Though they have the NFL's worst Consistency Rating since the beginning of 2010 (25.5 percent), the Colts aren't getting enough credit for those kinds of performances, at least in the matchups department, a point colleague Christopher Harris also made in his Free Agent Finds column. Robert Mathis currently leads all defensive linemen in IDP fantasy points per game, while linebacker Jerrell Freeman ranks 14th.

And here's why that's particularly relevant: The Colts D/ST remains available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues, and it has quite a few attractive matchups in the final nine weeks, during which the team will play every week. They include:

• Two matchups against the Houston Texans (Weeks 9 and 15), who have afforded opposing D/STs the third-most fantasy points per game, have Case Keenum starting at quarterback and a Week 9 running back picture entirely in question with Arian Foster and Ben Tate nursing injuries.
• One against the Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 17), who have afforded opposing D/STs the second-most fantasy points per game.
• One against the Arizona Cardinals (Week 12), who have committed the second-most turnovers (18).
• One against the St. Louis Rams (Week 10), who just got a miserable 16.5 QBR out of Sam Bradford's fill-in, Kellen Clemens, this past week.

[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort.

Players must have at least a 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player <CENTER>Team</CENTER> <CENTER>%</CENTER> <CENTER>Pos</CENTER> <CENTER>G</CENTER> <CENTER>Start</CENTER> <CENTER>Stud</CENTER> <CENTER>Stiff</CENTER> <CENTER>Sat</CENTER> <CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal Charles KC 100.0% RB 8 8 4 0 0 100.0%
Matt Forte Chi 100.0% RB 7 7 3 0 0 100.0%
Peyton Manning Den 87.5% QB 8 7 3 0 0 87.5%
Wes Welker Den 87.5% WR 8 7 0 0 0 87.5%
Jordan Cameron Cle 87.5% TE 8 7 1 1 0 87.5%
Fred Jackson Buf 87.5% RB 8 7 1 0 0 87.5%
LeSean McCoy Phi 87.5% RB 8 7 3 0 0 75.0%
Frank Gore SF 87.5% RB 8 7 2 0 0 75.0%
Drew Brees NO 85.7% QB 7 6 3 0 0 85.7%
Jordy Nelson GB 85.7% WR 7 6 1 0 0 85.7%
Alfred Morris Wsh 85.7% RB 7 6 0 0 0 85.7%
Adrian Peterson Min 85.7% RB 7 6 2 0 0 71.4%
Julius Thomas Den 75.0% TE 8 6 2 1 0 75.0%
Matthew Stafford Det 75.0% QB 8 6 1 0 0 75.0%
Knowshon Moreno Den 75.0% RB 8 6 4 0 0 75.0%
Seahawks D/ST Sea 75.0% D/ST 8 6 1 0 0 75.0%
49ers D/ST SF 75.0% D/ST 8 6 1 2 0 75.0%
Dez Bryant Dal 75.0% WR 8 6 3 2 0 62.5%
Julio Jones Atl 71.4% WR 5 5 1 0 2 71.4%
Arian Foster Hou 71.4% RB 7 5 1 0 0 71.4%
Jimmy Graham NO 71.4% TE 7 5 4 1 0 71.4%
Darren McFadden Oak 71.4% RB 6 5 1 0 1 71.4%
Aaron Rodgers GB 71.4% QB 7 5 1 1 0 71.4%
Eddie Lacy GB 71.4% RB 6 5 1 1 1 71.4%
Panthers D/ST Car 71.4% D/ST 7 5 2 1 0 71.4%
Brandon Marshall Chi 71.4% WR 7 5 1 0 0 57.1%
DeAngelo Williams Car 71.4% RB 7 5 0 0 0 57.1%
Chris Johnson Ten 71.4% RB 7 5 0 0 0 42.9%
Reggie Bush Det 62.5% RB 7 5 3 0 1 75.0%
DeMarco Murray Dal 62.5% RB 6 5 1 0 2 62.5%
Chiefs D/ST KC 62.5% D/ST 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
Marshawn Lynch Sea 62.5% RB 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
Matt Prater Den 62.5% K 8 5 1 1 0 62.5%
Stephen Gostkowski NE 62.5% K 8 5 2 1 0 62.5%
Demaryius Thomas Den 62.5% WR 8 5 2 0 0 62.5%
A.J. Green Cin 62.5% WR 8 5 2 1 0 62.5%
Calvin Johnson Det 62.5% WR 7 5 3 2 1 62.5%
Vernon Davis SF 62.5% TE 7 5 2 1 1 50.0%
Doug Martin TB 57.1% RB 6 4 0 0 1 57.1%
Garrett Hartley NO 57.1% K 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Matt Ryan Atl 57.1% QB 7 4 0 0 0 57.1%
Charles Clay Mia 57.1% RB 7 4 0 0 0 57.1%
Philip Rivers SD 57.1% QB 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Antonio Gates SD 57.1% TE 7 4 0 2 0 57.1%
Andrew Luck Ind 57.1% QB 7 4 1 1 0 57.1%
Justin Tucker Bal 57.1% K 7 4 1 2 0 57.1%
Robbie Gould Chi 57.1% K 7 4 0 1 0 57.1%
Antonio Brown Pit 57.1% WR 7 4 1 0 0 57.1%
Mason Crosby GB 57.1% K 7 4 2 2 0 57.1%
Denarius Moore Oak 57.1% WR 7 4 0 1 0 42.9%
Jermichael Finley GB 57.1% TE 6 4 1 2 1 42.9%
Martellus Bennett Chi 57.1% TE 7 4 1 1 0 42.9%
Ryan Mathews SD 57.1% RB 7 4 1 1 0 42.9%
DeSean Jackson Phi 50.0% WR 8 4 2 2 0 62.5%
Russell Wilson Sea 50.0% QB 8 4 0 2 0 50.0%
Dan Carpenter Buf 50.0% K 8 4 0 1 0 50.0%
Cowboys D/ST Dal 50.0% D/ST 8 4 1 3 0 50.0%
Tony Romo Dal 50.0% QB 8 4 1 1 0 50.0%
Victor Cruz NYG 50.0% WR 8 4 2 1 0 50.0%
Larry Fitzgerald Ari 50.0% WR 8 4 1 2 0 50.0%
Josh Gordon Cle 50.0% WR 6 4 1 1 2 50.0%
Dan Bailey Dal 50.0% K 8 4 2 3 0 50.0%
Bengals D/ST Cin 50.0% D/ST 8 4 1 2 0 50.0%
Andre Ellington Ari 50.0% RB 8 4 1 1 0 50.0%
Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 50.0% RB 8 4 0 0 0 50.0%
Nick Folk NYJ 50.0% K 8 4 0 2 0 50.0%
Terrance Williams Dal 50.0% WR 8 4 1 3 0 37.5%
Marvin Jones Cin 50.0% WR 8 4 1 4 0 37.5%
Zac Stacy StL 50.0% RB 6 4 0 2 2 25.0%
Danny Woodhead SD 42.9% RB 7 3 1 1 0 85.7%
Andre Johnson Hou 42.9% WR 7 3 0 2 0 57.1%
Jacquizz Rodgers Atl 42.9% RB 7 3 2 1 0 57.1%
Torrey Smith Bal 42.9% WR 7 3 1 1 0 57.1%
Reggie Wayne Ind 42.9% WR 7 3 0 1 0 57.1%
Randall Cobb GB 42.9% WR 5 3 0 0 2 42.9%
Jason Snelling Atl 42.9% RB 6 3 1 1 1 42.9%
Vincent Jackson TB 42.9% WR 7 3 2 2 0 42.9%
Shaun Suisham Pit 42.9% K 7 3 2 3 0 42.9%
Steve Smith Car 42.9% WR 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Jay Cutler Chi 42.9% QB 7 3 0 2 0 42.9%
Matt Schaub Hou 42.9% QB 6 3 0 3 1 42.9%
Colts D/ST Ind 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 2 0 42.9%
Trent Richardson Ind 42.9% RB 7 3 0 0 0 42.9%
Titans D/ST Ten 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 1 0 42.9%
Nick Novak SD 42.9% K 7 3 2 4 0 42.9%
Bears D/ST Chi 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 3 0 42.9%
Jake Locker Ten 42.9% QB 5 3 0 1 2 42.9%
Alshon Jeffery Chi 42.9% WR 7 3 2 3 0 42.9%
Eddie Royal SD 42.9% WR 7 3 1 3 0 42.9%
Coby Fleener Ind 42.9% TE 7 3 0 4 0 42.9%
Adam Vinatieri Ind 42.9% K 7 3 2 1 0 42.9%
Cam Newton Car 42.9% QB 7 3 2 2 0 42.9%
Ted Ginn Car 42.9% WR 7 3 0 3 0 42.9%
Greg Olsen Car 42.9% TE 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Lamar Miller Mia 42.9% RB 7 3 0 2 0 42.9%
Kyle Rudolph Min 42.9% TE 7 3 0 4 0 42.9%
Packers D/ST GB 42.9% D/ST 7 3 1 2 0 42.9%
Saints D/ST NO 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Raiders D/ST Oak 42.9% D/ST 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Mike Tolbert Car 42.9% RB 7 3 0 1 0 42.9%
Le'Veon Bell Pit 42.9% RB 4 3 0 0 3 42.9%
James Jones GB 42.9% WR 5 3 0 2 2 28.6%
Daniel Thomas Mia 42.9% RB 7 3 0 2 0 28.6%
Marlon Brown Bal 42.9% WR 6 3 0 2 1 14.3%
Giovani Bernard Cin 37.5% RB 8 3 1 0 0 62.5%
Bilal Powell NYJ 37.5% RB 8 3 0 1 0 50.0%
Eric Decker Den 37.5% WR 8 3 2 1 0 50.0%
Joique Bell Det 37.5% RB 8 3 2 0 0 50.0%
Brandon Bolden NE 37.5% RB 6 3 0 2 2 50.0%
Sam Bradford StL 37.5% QB 7 3 0 1 1 37.5%
Browns D/ST Cle 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 2 0 37.5%
Kenbrell Thompkins NE 37.5% WR 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
David Akers Det 37.5% K 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Jason Witten Dal 37.5% TE 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Lions D/ST Det 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 3 0 37.5%
Geno Smith NYJ 37.5% QB 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
Steven Hauschka Sea 37.5% K 8 3 0 1 0 37.5%
Bills D/ST Buf 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Alex Smith KC 37.5% QB 8 3 0 2 0 37.5%
Ryan Succop KC 37.5% K 8 3 0 4 0 37.5%
Cardinals D/ST Ari 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Greg Zuerlein StL 37.5% K 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Patriots D/ST NE 37.5% D/ST 8 3 0 1 0 37.5%
Steve Johnson Buf 37.5% WR 7 3 0 2 1 37.5%
Broncos D/ST Den 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Scott Chandler Buf 37.5% TE 8 3 0 5 0 37.5%
Golden Tate Sea 37.5% WR 8 3 1 3 0 37.5%
Rams D/ST StL 37.5% D/ST 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Andy Dalton Cin 37.5% QB 8 3 2 3 0 37.5%
Colin Kaepernick SF 37.5% QB 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Jay Feely Ari 37.5% K 8 3 1 2 0 37.5%
Stevan Ridley NE 37.5% RB 7 3 1 0 1 37.5%
Josh Brown NYG 37.5% K 8 3 1 4 0 37.5%
Rueben Randle NYG 37.5% WR 8 3 1 4 0 25.0%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis Cin 37.5% RB 8 3 0 1 0 25.0%
Rashard Mendenhall Ari 37.5% RB 7 3 0 1 1 25.0%
Pierre Thomas NO 28.6% RB 7 2 1 0 0 57.1%
Pierre Garcon Wsh 28.6% WR 7 2 1 0 0 42.9%
Darren Sproles NO 28.6% RB 7 2 1 1 0 42.9%
Roy Helu Wsh 28.6% RB 7 2 1 2 0 42.9%
Ray Rice Bal 28.6% RB 6 2 1 2 1 42.9%
Jordan Reed Wsh 28.6% TE 6 2 1 1 1 42.9%
Mike Wallace Mia 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Tony Gonzalez Atl 28.6% TE 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Caleb Sturgis Mia 28.6% K 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Blair Walsh Min 28.6% K 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Brian Hartline Mia 28.6% WR 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Matt Bryant Atl 28.6% K 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Buccaneers D/ST TB 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Brandon LaFell Car 28.6% WR 7 2 0 4 0 28.6%
Jerome Simpson Min 28.6% WR 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Dolphins D/ST Mia 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Marques Colston NO 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Sebastian Janikowski Oak 28.6% K 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Robert Griffin III Wsh 28.6% QB 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
Graham Gano Car 28.6% K 7 2 1 2 0 28.6%
Vikings D/ST Min 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Nate Washington Ten 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
T.Y. Hilton Ind 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Ravens D/ST Bal 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 1 0 28.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw Ind 28.6% RB 3 2 1 0 4 28.6%
Bernard Pierce Bal 28.6% RB 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Ben Tate Hou 28.6% RB 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
Keenan Allen SD 28.6% WR 6 2 0 2 1 28.6%
Dallas Clark Bal 28.6% TE 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Kendall Wright Ten 28.6% WR 7 2 0 1 0 28.6%
DeAndre Hopkins Hou 28.6% WR 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Chargers D/ST SD 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Redskins D/ST Wsh 28.6% D/ST 7 2 1 1 0 28.6%
Emmanuel Sanders Pit 28.6% WR 7 2 0 2 0 28.6%
James Starks GB 28.6% RB 4 2 1 1 3 28.6%
Timothy Wright TB 28.6% WR 7 2 0 5 0 28.6%
Steelers D/ST Pit 28.6% D/ST 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Kenny Stills NO 28.6% WR 7 2 1 4 0 28.6%
Rian Lindell TB 28.6% K 7 2 0 3 0 28.6%
Harry Douglas Atl 28.6% WR 7 2 1 3 0 28.6%
Jarrett Boykin GB 28.6% WR 7 2 0 4 0 28.6%
Garrett Graham Hou 28.6% TE 7 2 0 4 0 14.3%
Mike Williams TB 28.6% WR 6 2 0 3 1 0.0%
Levine Toilolo Atl 28.6% TE 7 2 0 5 0 0.0%
Cecil Shorts Jac 25.0% WR 8 2 0 2 0 62.5%
Julian Edelman NE 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 37.5%
Michael Vick Phi 25.0% QB 6 2 1 1 2 25.0%
Alex Henery Phi 25.0% K 8 2 1 3 0 25.0%
Anquan Boldin SF 25.0% WR 8 2 1 3 0 25.0%
Austin Pettis StL 25.0% WR 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Hakeem Nicks NYG 25.0% WR 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
C.J. Spiller Buf 25.0% RB 7 2 0 1 1 25.0%
Phil Dawson SF 25.0% K 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Justin Blackmon Jac 25.0% WR 4 2 1 0 4 25.0%
Dwayne Bowe KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 25.0%
Chris Ogbonnaya Cle 25.0% RB 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Mike Nugent Cin 25.0% K 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Jets D/ST NYJ 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 2 0 25.0%
Sidney Rice Sea 25.0% WR 8 2 1 6 0 25.0%
Jeremy Kerley NYJ 25.0% WR 7 2 0 4 1 25.0%
Zach Miller Sea 25.0% TE 6 2 0 3 2 25.0%
Dexter McCluster KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Dexter McCluster KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Eagles D/ST Phi 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 3 0 25.0%
Mike Brown Jac 25.0% WR 4 2 0 1 4 25.0%
Giants D/ST NYG 25.0% D/ST 8 2 0 5 0 25.0%
Peyton Hillis NYG 25.0% RB 2 2 0 0 6 25.0%
Joseph Fauria Det 25.0% TE 8 2 1 5 0 12.5%
Donnie Avery KC 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Jeff Cumberland NYJ 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Brent Celek Phi 25.0% TE 8 2 0 5 0 12.5%
Lance Kendricks StL 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Kris Durham Det 25.0% WR 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Da'Rel Scott NYG 25.0% RB 5 2 0 2 3 12.5%
Joseph Randle Dal 25.0% RB 5 2 0 2 3 12.5%
Michael Floyd Ari 25.0% WR 8 2 0 2 0 12.5%
Kendall Hunter SF 25.0% RB 8 2 0 2 0 12.5%
Aaron Dobson NE 25.0% WR 7 2 0 2 1 12.5%
Jermaine Gresham Cin 25.0% TE 8 2 0 4 0 12.5%
Heath Miller Pit 14.3% TE 5 1 0 2 2 28.6%
Owen Daniels Hou 14.3% TE 5 1 0 1 2 28.6%
Donald Brown Ind 14.3% RB 7 1 0 2 0 28.6%
Delanie Walker Ten 14.3% TE 7 1 0 2 0 28.6%
Falcons D/ST Atl 14.3% D/ST 7 1 0 3 0 14.3%
Texans D/ST Hou 14.3% D/ST 7 1 0 2 0 14.3%
Riley Cooper Phi 12.5% WR 8 1 1 5 0 25.0%
Jared Cook StL 12.5% TE 8 1 1 4 0 25.0%
Kellen Winslow NYJ 12.5% TE 5 1 0 2 3 25.0%
Brandon Myers NYG 12.5% TE 8 1 0 5 0 25.0%
Daryl Richardson StL 12.5% RB 8 1 0 4 0 25.0%
Jaguars D/ST Jac 0.0% D/ST 8 0 0 6 0 0.0%

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HacheMan · Oct 30, 2013

Week 9 ranks reaction: Believe in the Bolts

Eric Karabell

One might think it's odd that I have ranked San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews among my top-10 options at the position this week. Heck, even I think it's odd, because I'm well aware of the anguish this underachieving running back has caused fantasy owners in his short career. But wouldn't the world be a better place if we all learned to forgive and forget? Mathews is, after all, looking to log his third consecutive 100-yard rushing game, and the team he's facing, the defensively beleaguered Washington Redskins, have permitted the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, more than 23 points per game, with the lowest output being 18 points. Mathews seems like a lock in a running back world that is anything but!

We're roughly halfway through the season, and recent trends mean more than 2012 statistics at this point. I don't care what the Dallas Cowboys' DeMarco Murray is capable of, because he's not reliable, even those rare moments he's healthy. Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson could explode on a bad Rams defense -- which, by the way, just controlled Marshawn Lynch -- but he's hardly reliable. Let's face it, Mathews isn't reliable, either. But he has run well of late, he's coming off a bye week and these Chargers are a different team than in previous seasons. Nobody looks twice when quarterback Philip Rivers ends up among our top 10 at his position, and this week he's my No. 5 guy, as the Redskins aren't exactly strong against the pass, either (fifth-most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks). As I was ranking him there, I thought about it for a second, realizing how erratic and turnover-prone the guy had been in prior seasons, but why does that matter anymore? These Chargers are fantasy-friendly!

Perhaps there were no Chargers anyone really wanted to select in preseason drafts -- my hand is raised, except for maybe Vincent Brown, who has done little -- but now Rivers is the No. 8 fantasy scorer for the season, Mathews has four double-digit fantasy efforts (the same as Adrian Peterson, incidentally), and rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen has emerged as a solid WR2 option and my No. 15 choice. The argument can be made that Antonio Gates is a top-2 or 3 tight end not only this week, but the rest of the season, knowing the Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski situations. I can't say I'll trust Mathews and Allen and perhaps Rivers all weeks, but against the Redskins, a team that allowed about the quickest five touchdowns Sunday to turn an exciting lead in Denver into a blowout loss, it all works.

Quarterback: Why did I nearly rank Cam Newton as the top quarterback this week? Well, last year he skewered the Atlanta Falcons for 36 and 30 fantasy points. That's why! … I feel like we all ranked Andy Dalton too well, knowing that this three-game stretch is unsustainable. … Doesn't matter what you think of the Oakland Raiders' defense; you just can't rely on Nick Foles or the Philly offense. … I'm not overly concerned about the Chicago Bears' offense with Josh McCown at quarterback. Given his weapons, he's top-20 for me this week.

Running back: What seems more odd, Ryan Mathews in the top 10, or Fred Jackson? Hey, they're putting up numbers. Is Chris Johnson? … I ranked C.J. Spiller better than he deserves, and I know it. He might not even play. But I can't give up on his upside. … I trust Arian Foster as a top-10 running back if he plays. And I think he will be playing. … Lamar Miller is a pain to own, but it's hard to argue against top-20 potential. The guy has top-10 potential, really. For this week, he's my No. 20, and probably deserved better against a Bengals defense that opposing running backs have owned of late. … We're all probably being a bit harsh in ranking the Falcons' Steven Jackson so poorly. It's not as though the players ranked ahead of him, such as Darren Sproles, are doing much. … Clearly I like Pierre Thomas more than my colleagues, even against a Jets team that is tough to run on. Well, I'm probably more focused on the lack of other top-20 options. And Thomas does catch passes.

Wide receiver: Don't worry about Dez Bryant and the most overplayed non-story of the season. We aren't. The Cowboys aren't. Amazing talent will have a big game. … I do worry about DeSean Jackson getting few targets or not caring when he gets them. Not a top-10 WR for me. … I don't see the Packers' Jarrett Boykin simply going away, even if James Jones plays, which is no lock. … Marvin Jones will likely be mighty overrated by fantasy owners this week. Add him, play him over the likes of Mike Wallace if you want, but be realistic, too. … Also be realistic about the Seahawks' Percy Harvin. Those expecting immediate, top-10 numbers will be disappointed. Seattle's offense didn't struggle against the Rams because Harvin wasn't there. … I'm skeptical about relying on any Patriots wide receiver. … One can do worse than Eddie Royal, based on the matchup.

Tight end: I think it's a bit dangerous to assume the Saints' Jimmy Graham will simply score two touchdowns every week. Not saying I sit him, but he's not my No. 1, knowing what the team is thinking. There's downside for a zero, too. … Three teams are permitting 10 or more fantasy points per game to tight ends (Cardinals, Dolphins, Packers), and since I'm not too concerned about McCown, I'm similarly optimistic on Martellus Bennett as a top-10 option. … Meanwhile, the Steelers are second-toughest to accrue fantasy points again. That doesn't mean Gronkowski will struggle, but if you have Jordan Reed or Antonio Gates, you don't have to start Gronk.

HacheMan · Oct 30, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy hints from next-level data[/h][h=3]What to make of Marvin Jones after his monster day in Week 8[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

It can be extremely difficult to separate emerging players from fluke performers. It gets even tougher when a single player can fall into both categories. With the waiver wire for wide receivers becoming sparser because of some significant injuries, let's review some next-level data to evaluate a particular young receiver who is likely on your fantasy radar.

No player is going to light up the waiver wire this week like Marvin Jones. That doesn't mean you should view Jones as fantasy gold. While Jones obviously made the most of his opportunities Sunday, most fans are going to be shocked to learn that Jones was on the field for only 18 snaps. That's only four more than Dane Sanzenbacher and five more than Brandon Tate, his fellow Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers.

It's very likely that Jones will see the field more often after his historic day Sunday, but we also should realize that there was an element of luck that led to his breakout performance. In fact, the 13 routes that Jones ran during his 18 snaps Sunday represented his second-lowest number of routes run this season (he ran just 10 routes in Week 1) and Jones was barely on the fantasy radar before Sunday.

Want an idea of how abnormal Jones' performance was? Since the opening of the 2007 season, there have been 493 games where an NFL player scored two or more receiving touchdowns. On only four of those instances were multiple touchdowns scored by a wide receiver who had run 13 or fewer routes, a group that Jones joined Sunday. With the exception of Michael Crabtree, the others in that group -- Chris Chambers, Michael Jenkins and Sinorice Moss -- don't exactly instill fear into the hearts of anyone.

[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all of the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 8.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 8[/h]

[h=4]Week 8 Targets Report[/h]

Player	Targets*	RZ
Vincent Jackson	16.3	3
Calvin Johnson	13.3	4
Justin Blackmon	12.0	2
Pierre Garcon	11.7	1
Mike Wallace	11.7	2
Rob Gronkowski	11.0	0
Julio Jones	11.0	0
Hakeem Nicks	10.3	2
Dez Bryant	10.3	2
Antonio Brown	10.0	1
Kendall Wright	9.7	0
Jordan Reed	9.7	1
Harry Douglas	9.7	2
DeSean Jackson	9.5	0
Keenan Allen	9.3	0
Owen Daniels	9.0	0
Wes Welker	8.8	2
Kris Durham	8.8	1
Cecil Shorts	8.8	2
Tony Gonzalez	8.7	1
Steve Johnson	8.7	1
Victor Cruz	8.5	0
Eric Decker	8.5	1
A.J. Green	8.5	1
Reggie Wayne	8.3	0
Brandon Marshall	8.3	0
Antonio Gates	8.3	0
Alshon Jeffery	8.3	0
T.Y. Hilton	8.0	0
Kyle Rudolph	8.0	0
Brian Hartline	8.0	0
Andre Johnson	8.0	0
* Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games

• If veteran wideout Nate Burleson was dropped in your league, execute a waiver claim on him. Ryan Broyles is out for the year, and Burleson was being targeted 7.7 times per game before his unfortunate, pizza-based accident. With Burleson close to returning, you'll be adding some nice depth to your receiving corps at a very low cost.
• It's amazing how irrelevant Kyle Rudolph is despite his high number of targets. In four of seven games this season, Rudolph has failed to score more than two fantasy points. To say that Rudolph's fantasy relevance is touchdown-dependent would be completely appropriate.
• Remember when Joseph Fauria was a hot pickup candidate because of his fluky three-touchdown game? In the two games since, he had one catch for 15 yards. In Week 8, he ran only seven routes, despite the Detroit Lions playing from behind for most the of the game. If you picked him up, feel free to reverse that move at your leisure.
• Darius Johnson had nine targets for the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8, including two in the red zone. Granted, the Falcons were trailing for a significant portion of the game, but Matt Ryan needs a secondary receiving threat opposite Harry Douglas. Until Roddy White returns, Johnson has some value in that role.
• While you might feel that the New England Patriots are running more than normal once they get into the red zone, you would be wrong. The Patriots are actually running slightly less often this year (56 percent of their snaps) than they did last season (58 percent). Look for that rate to drop further in the weeks ahead, as Tom Brady's favorite red zone receiving option, Rob Gronkowski, missed several weeks and therefore the data is skewed.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were seven NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each, up from five in Week 7. They were: Zac Stacy (6), Lamar Miller (4), Andre Ellington (4), Reggie Bush (3), James Starks (3), DeAngelo Williams (3) and Alfred Morris (3).
Meanwhile, there were eight players with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer, down from 13 in Week 7. They were Bush (4), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (3), Darren McFadden (3), Fred Jackson (3), Montee Ball (3), Eddie Lacy (2), Frank Gore (2) and Russell Wilson (2). Of this group, only Green-Ellis and Wilson failed to score on at least one of these attempts.
Stacy and Daryl Richardson combined for eight big rushes against the Seattle Seahawks. That amounts to one-third of the big rushes allowed by the Seahawks for the season. With Kellen Clemens as the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, the St. Louis Rams need that level of rushing dominance to remain competitive.
This is probably the last chance you'll get to jump on the Eddie Lacy bandwagon. The Green Bay Packers face the second-best schedule for fantasy running backs for the remainder of the season. Opponents that the Packers will face allow 16.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Ball's 30 snaps played Sunday surpassed the total number of snaps he played in the previous four games combined (27). While that might sound good, Ball was on the field for 14 of Peyton Manning's pass attempts. Manning completed just 42.9 percent of those 14 attempts. While Knowshon Moreno was on the field, Manning completed 20 of 22 attempts (90.9 percent). It doesn't take a math whiz to figure out the Denver Broncos' offense is more effective with Moreno than Ball.
While Bush did score a touchdown from up close, his other three carries in that zone totaled minus-6 yards. The last time Bush had a carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line was Week 1. If Bush continues to get these types of carries, adjust his value accordingly.
Ellington's four big rushes against the Atlanta Falcons were extremely impressive. To put his performance in perspective: No other rusher has attained more than one rush of 10 or more yards against them this year. Look for Ellington to force Rashard Mendenhall to the bench.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play where the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as a rush.

[h=4]Red Zone Play-Calling Chart[/h]

Team	Snaps	Pass	Rush
Denver Broncos	104	57%	43%
Atlanta Falcons	89	67%	33%
New England Patriots	86	44%	56%
St. Louis Rams	80	61%	39%
Green Bay Packers	80	51%	49%
Kansas City Chiefs	79	46%	54%
Detroit Lions	77	61%	39%
San Francisco 49ers	73	29%	71%
San Diego Chargers	73	63%	37%
Carolina Panthers	70	37%	63%
Jacksonville Jaguars	68	74%	26%
Cleveland Browns	67	60%	40%
Buffalo Bills	67	30%	70%
Baltimore Ravens	66	55%	45%
Chicago Bears	65	60%	40%
Seattle Seahawks	64	45%	55%
Philadelphia Eagles	64	50%	50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	61	69%	31%
New Orleans Saints	61	67%	33%
Dallas Cowboys	58	60%	40%
Cincinnati Bengals	58	57%	43%
Tennessee Titans	56	46%	54%
Houston Texans	56	55%	45%
Washington Redskins	53	62%	38%
Miami Dolphins	52	58%	42%
New York Giants	50	64%	36%
Indianapolis Colts	49	51%	49%
Arizona Cardinals	48	58%	42%
Minnesota Vikings	46	52%	48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	44	73%	27%
Oakland Raiders	42	45%	55%
New York Jets	39	56%	44%

HacheMan · Oct 30, 2013

[h=1]Best, worst Week 9 matchups[/h][h=3]Look to start Terrelle Pryor, Eddie Lacy; avoid Matt Ryan, Matt Forte[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders
The Denver Broncos, fantasy football's biggest cash cow, lead a group of six teams on a bye in Week 9, creating some tough decisions. Everyone knows what Peyton Manning has been doing, but Detroit's Matthew Stafford is third in fantasy points. He too is on a bye, which means the No. 1 fantasy (and real life) receiver, Calvin Johnson, is also off.
The bye also claims some of this year's top running backs: Knowshon Moreno (No. 2), Frank Gore (No. 6) and Reggie Bush (No. 7). Vernon Davis (No. 3) and Julius Thomas (No. 4) have been two of the best tight ends in a rough year for the position.
Speaking of rough years, the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) appear headed for all-time awful status, scoring the fewest points (86) and allowing the most (264). They too are on a bye, so the "start every skill player facing Jacksonville" strategy is also out of use this week.
By now, we have a good sense of which players are the best at their positions, but just as important, we can make educated judgments about the strength of teams using Football Outsiders' advanced efficiency metrics.
Still looking to make a big trade to turn your season around? You'll want to consult this table that highlights the easiest and toughest remaining schedules (Weeks 9-16) based on pass defense DVOA and run defense DVOA:<OFFER></OFFER>

[h=4]Easiest and toughest schedules based on Football Outsiders' DVOA, Weeks 9-16[/h]

Eight Easiest Pass Eight Toughest Pass Eight Easiest Run Eight Toughest Run
GB IND DEN DET
CHI JAC CIN NO
DET STL ARI PHI
PHI NYJ HOU MIA
DAL DEN WAS SEA
WAS ATL BUF MIN
BUF PIT CAR SD
NYG MIA TEN BAL

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It's an unfair universe as Aaron Rodgers has the easiest remaining schedule of pass defenses, so hopefully Jordy Nelson has been on your trade radar. With so many injured receivers in Green Bay, he's going to be a stud down the stretch.
If you are looking for a switch at running back, trading LeSean McCoy (third-toughest schedule) for a haul that includes Arizona's Andre Ellington (third-easiest schedule) might work out. Ellington broke out with 154 rushing yards last week while McCoy is dealing with a struggling offense hampered by injured quarterbacks.
Before throwing in the towel on C.J. Spiller, note that the Bills have the sixth-easiest schedule of run defenses. Buffalo still ranks second in carries (265), so the opportunities will be there for Spiller.
With Dallas having the fifth-easiest passing schedule, rookie Terrance Williams is a must-add for any team in need of a wide receiver. He's owned in 58 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues as of Tuesday. The big-play receiver from Baylor averages 17.1 yards per reception and has scored a touchdown in four straight games.
You may want to sell high on a Denver receiver now, as the tougher defenses will be coming with two games against Kansas City (No. 2 pass defense) and a trip to New England. However, Moreno has an appealing finish of run defenses.
Finally, this looks most favorable for the Washington offense going forward as it has the sixth-easiest pass schedule and fifth-easiest run schedule. We have seen Alfred Morris and the running game improve in recent weeks, and the schedule should help sustain that the rest of the way.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 9:

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]

[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]

Pos Team Name +/- Fan Pts
QB CAR Cam Newton +5
QB WAS Robert Griffin III +4
QB OAK Terrelle Pryor +4
RB WAS Alfred Morris +3
RB OAK Darren McFadden +2
RB CAR DeAngelo Williams +2
RB SD Danny Woodhead +2
RB CIN Giovani Bernard +2
RB SD Ryan Mathews +2
WR CHI Alshon Jeffery +1
WR OAK Denarius Moore +1
WR WAS Pierre Garcon +1
RB GB Eddie Lacy +1
QB SEA Russell Wilson +1
RB PIT Le'Veon Bell +1
TE WAS Jordan Reed +1
WR CAR Steve Smith +1
TE CHI Martellus Bennett +1
TE CAR Greg Olsen +1
RB BAL Ray Rice +1
RB DAL Joseph Randle +1

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Terrelle Pryor (plus-4 points)
It's been a roller-coaster season for young Pryor, but he did just set a record with the longest run in NFL history by a quarterback (93 yards). That won't happen again, but that one play gave Pryor a game that has happened only 22 other times in 2013 (at least 93 rushing yards and one touchdown). In a tough year for backs, Pryor's 65.2 rushing yards per game are a huge bonus with what he can do in the passing game. This week, he gets the Eagles (29th against the pass, 18th against the run) at home. This is a great start if you own Manning, Stafford or Colin Kaepernick.
Matt Ryan (minus-2 points)
While he looked good against Tampa Bay without his top receivers, Ryan struggled mightily with four interceptions in Arizona. Another road game against a top pass defense (Carolina ranks No. 8 and is on the rise) is not likely to get him back on track, but at least Harry Douglas has a shot to have a third consecutive strong game.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Giovani Bernard (plus-2 points)
Yes, it's a Thursday game and the talented rookie will be on the road, but the Dolphins rank No. 29 against the run and allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Andy Dalton has been on a hot streak, but expect to see a more generic game plan and more touches for Bernard. He's a solid flex option.
Eddie Lacy (plus-1 point)
Lacy was a good play against Minnesota and will be again this week against the Bears, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. The loss of Henry Melton and Lance Briggs is a lot to overcome for the defense, which allowed 45 points to Washington and three rushing touchdowns to Roy Helu in the previous game.

[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]

Pos Team Name +/- Fan Pts
QB MIA Ryan Tannehill -4
QB TB Mike Glennon -3
QB PIT Ben Roethlisberger -3
RB BUF Fred Jackson -3
RB CHI Matt Forte -2
RB ATL Jacquizz Rodgers -2
RB MIA Lamar Miller -2
RB NO Pierre Thomas -2
QB ATL Matt Ryan -2
RB NO Darren Sproles -2
RB BUF C.J. Spiller -1
QB KC Alex Smith -1
RB ATL Steven Jackson -1
RB MIA Daniel Thomas -1
RB HOU Ben Tate -1
RB STL Zac Stacy -1
RB TEN Chris Johnson -1
RB CLE Willis McGahee -1
WR TB Vincent Jackson -1
RB STL Daryl Richardson -1
WR PIT Antonio Brown -1

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Matt Forte (minus-2 points)
Forte has been an elite fantasy back this season, but here's the "Lower Your Expectations" pick of the week. The Packers are hot and will likely be rolling in this game, which limits Forte's touches as he plays with a backup quarterback (Josh McCown). In nine career games against the Packers, Forte has averaged just 3.37 yards per carry and has only one touchdown.

[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Pierre Garcon (plus-1 point)
He has only two touchdowns this season, but Garcon has at least five catches in every game and the Chargers rank No. 30 against the pass (23rd against No. 1 receivers). This is also a great matchup for Morris, as the Chargers are 31st against the run.

Antonio Brown (minus-1 point)
This matchup will be worse if cornerback Aqib Talib plays for New England as he has been locking down No. 1 receivers this season. Foxborough has not been a kind venue to the Steelers, and Brown is coming off a game in which he had two huge drops in the fourth quarter. Both of Brown's touchdowns came against Chicago, and Ben Roethlisberger has not thrown multiple touchdowns in any other game this season.

[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Martellus Bennett (plus-1 point)
Bennett is coming off his quietest game of the season (one catch for seven yards), but the catch was a touchdown pass from McCown. The Packers allow the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Six tight ends have had at least 51 receiving yards against Green Bay this season and half added a touchdown.

[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 9 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.

[h=4]Week 9 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos Team Name Proj Pos Team Name Proj
QB GB Aaron Rodgers +1 RB HOU Arian Foster -2
QB NO Drew Brees +1 WR CHI Brandon Marshall +1
QB DAL Tony Romo +1 WR DAL Dez Bryant +1
QB SD Philip Rivers 0 WR GB Jordy Nelson +1
RB SEA Marshawn Lynch +1 WR PHI DeSean Jackson 0
RB KC Jamaal Charles 0 WR CIN A.J. Green 0
RB PHI LeSean McCoy 0 TE NO Jimmy Graham +1
RB MIN Adrian Peterson 0 TE CLE Jordan Cameron 0

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HacheMan · Oct 30, 2013

[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Frank Gore, Calvin Johnson and others with best TD opportunities[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

With eight weeks of the 2013 regular season in the books, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).

If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.

In Week 8, the OTD headlines belong to Reggie Bush and Marvin Jones.

[h=3]Rushing[/h]

[h=4]Rushing OTD Leaders After Week 8[/h]

Rk	Rusher	Att	TD	2013 OTD	Wk 8 OTD
1	Frank Gore	145	7	6.2	0.9
2	Marshawn Lynch	146	6	5.7	0.0
3	Jamaal Charles	153	6	5.6	0.2
4	Fred Jackson	101	6	5.6	1.3
5	Knowshon Moreno	108	8	5.3	0.6
6	Willis McGahee	78	1	5.0	0.1
7	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	110	3	4.4	1.1
8	Ray Rice	86	3	3.8	0.0
9	Mike Tolbert	51	3	3.5	0.1
10	DeMarco Murray	91	3	3.5	0.0
11	Reggie Bush	117	2	3.3	1.7
12	Le'Veon Bell	59	3	3.2	0.5
13	Eddie Lacy	112	3	3.2	1.5
14	Matt Forte	116	6	3.1	0.0
15	Arian Foster	121	1	3.0	0.0
16	Jackie Battle	35	1	2.9	0.0
17	Darren McFadden	89	3	2.8	0.7
18	Stevan Ridley	92	4	2.7	0.5
19	Brandon Bolden	35	2	2.6	0.5
20	Maurice Jones-Drew	122	2	2.6	0.3
21	Adrian Peterson	128	6	2.6	0.2
22	Bernard Pierce	79	2	2.6	0.0
23	LeSean McCoy	156	3	2.5	0.1
24	Rashard Mendenhall	92	3	2.5	0.0
25	Jacquizz Rodgers	62	2	2.4	0.0
26	Ben Tate	66	1	2.4	0.0
27	Brandon Jacobs	44	3	2.4	0.0
28	DeAngelo Williams	109	1	2.2	0.3
29	Trent Richardson	106	2	2.2	0.0
30	Anthony Dixon	15	2	2.1	0.0
31	Danny Woodhead	46	1	2.1	0.0
32	Joique Bell	62	4	2.1	0.5
33	Montee Ball	55	1	2.0	1.0
34	LeGarrette Blount	65	1	2.0	0.8
35	Ahmad Bradshaw	41	2	1.9	0.0
36	Zac Stacy	76	0	1.9	0.3
37	Daniel Thomas	48	2	1.9	0.2
38	Ronnie Hillman	40	1	1.9	0.0
39	Ronnie Brown	26	1	1.8	0.0
40	Michael Bush	24	1	1.8	0.0

With seven rushing touchdowns this season, Frank Gore (6.2 OTD for the season) trails only Knowshon Moreno (5.3) in that category. Gore's NFL-leading OTD tells us that his scoring production is no fluke. Gore has converted all four of his attempts from the opponent's 1-yard line this season. He's racked up 14 additional carries inside the 10, but has scored on only one. Gore's other two scores came from distances of 19 and 34 yards. Going forward, touchdowns figure to come easy for Gore.

At 1.7, no player had a higher rushing OTD than Reggie Bush (3.3 for the season) this week. Bush handled four carries inside the opponent's 4-yard line, including a conversion from 1 yard out. Prior to Week 8, Bush had not seen a single carry inside the opponent's 7-yard line. His only other score came from 37 yards out.

Second to Bush in rushing OTD this past week, Eddie Lacy (3.2) has moved to No. 13 overall in the category on the season. Only two of Lacy's career-high 29 carries on Sunday came from within 10 yards of paydirt, but both were handled at the opponent's 1-yard line. Lacy converted on one of the tries. The rookie has been impressive in scoring situations this year, converting on three of four tries from within 2 yards of the end zone.

Fred Jackson (5.6) and Willis McGahee (5.0) have each attempted an NFL-high five carries from the opponent's 1-yard line this season. Additionally, Jackson is the only back in the league with more than nine carries from inside the opponent's 5-yard line. He's attempted 11, with five resulting in a score. McGahee, Gore, Moreno, and Marshawn Lynch (5.7) each have nine.

No back with 40-plus carries has a lower rushing OTD than Andre Ellington (0.4) this season. The Cardinals standout rookie hasn't attempted a single carry within 7 yards of the end zone. His two touchdowns came from distances of 15 and 80 yards out. With Rashard Mendenhall (2.5) and Stepfan Taylor (0.3) in the mix, it's fair to expect Ellington to struggle in the touchdown department going forward. Mendenhall has handled seven carries from within 7 yards of the end zone this season.

[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Remember that receiving OTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to better weight throws into the end zone.

[h=4]Receiving OTD Leaders After Week 8[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	TD	2013 OTD	Wk 8 OTD
1	Calvin Johnson	77	7	6.9	1.0
2	A.J. Green	81	5	5.5	0.5
3	Wes Welker	72	9	5.3	0.6
4	Dez Bryant	76	8	5.3	0.8
5	Cecil Shorts	84	1	4.8	0.8
6	Alshon Jeffery	55	2	4.5	0.0
7	Larry Fitzgerald	62	5	4.4	0.9
8	Kenbrell Thompkins	55	4	4.4	0.0
9	Martellus Bennett	43	4	4.2	0.0
10	Vernon Davis	46	7	4.2	0.8
11	DeSean Jackson	71	5	4.2	0.1
12	Brandon Marshall	65	5	4.1	0.0
13	Vincent Jackson	88	4	4.1	1.1
14	Jordy Nelson	52	7	3.9	0.7
15	Jason Witten	56	3	3.9	0.0
16	Michael Floyd	54	2	3.8	0.4
17	Tony Gonzalez	54	3	3.8	0.2
18	Aaron Dobson	50	2	3.7	0.4
19	Hakeem Nicks	64	0	3.6	1.2
20	Julius Thomas	52	8	3.6	0.0
21	Pierre Garcon	74	2	3.5	0.2
22	Jordan Cameron	60	5	3.4	0.0
23	Austin Pettis	43	4	3.4	0.4
24	Victor Cruz	74	4	3.4	0.2
25	Julian Edelman	68	2	3.4	0.0
26	Joseph Fauria	13	5	3.4	0.0
27	Eric Decker	69	3	3.3	0.4
28	Jimmy Graham	60	8	3.3	0.4
29	Demaryius Thomas	66	6	3.2	0.2
30	Reggie Wayne	57	2	3.2	0.0
31	Sidney Rice	32	3	3.1	0.4
32	Harry Douglas	50	1	3.1	0.6
33	Steve Smith	52	3	3.0	0.0
34	Antonio Brown	70	2	3.0	0.5
35	Steve Johnson	58	3	2.9	0.4
36	Justin Blackmon	46	1	2.9	0.5
37	T.Y. Hilton	52	2	2.9	0.0
38	Josh Gordon	57	3	2.9	0.2
39	DeAndre Hopkins	42	2	2.9	0.0
40	Kris Durham	45	1	2.8	0.4

Calvin Johnson (6.9) had another huge week, extending his lead in receiving OTD to 1.4 over second place A.J. Green (5.5). Johnson caught his only end zone target this week, and is now 4-of-11 (36.3 percent) on end zone looks this season. Johnson scored only once on Sunday, but was targeted 17 times. Four of those targets were delivered to Johnson while he was within 7 yards of the end zone.

No shocker here, but Marvin Jones (2.7) paced the NFL in receiving OTD this past weekend. Jones scored four times on eight targets en route to a 1.4 receiving OTD. He caught all three of his targets while in the end zone, and took another one the rest of the way from 7 yards out. On the year, Jones has caught all six of his end zone targets. As impressive as that is, it's impossible to sustain. Barely playing two dozen snaps per game, Jones is a logical sell-high candidate.

We haven't talked about him much in this space, but Cecil Shorts (4.8) sits at No. 5 in receiving OTD this season. The 84 targets he's seen certainly helps a ton, but that's especially the case when you consider that 10 (or 11.9) percent of them have come while he was in the end zone. Shorts caught only one of those targets, which is his only touchdown this season.

Regression Alert! Of the top 64 players in receiving OTD, only No. 19-ranked Hakeem Nicks (3.6) has yet to score a touchdown this season. Nicks has seen seven end zone targets, and an additional two looks inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Interestingly, Nicks was also 0-for-7 on end zone looks all of last season. It's fair to expect regression here, but it's clear that the Eli Manning-to-Nicks end zone connection is struggling. Chris Givens (2.0), Jerome Simpson (1.9), Kenny Britt (1.8), Andre Johnson (1.7), Mohamed Sanu (1.6), and Andre Roberts (1.5) are the only other players inside the top 100 in receiving OTD without a touchdown this season.

Speaking of Andre Johnson, his OTD struggles have continued into 2013. The veteran has seen only one end zone target this year. That puts him on a worse pace than when he saw only eight on 175 targets last season. Johnson has been targeted within 10 yards of the end zone a total of six times this season. He's not someone from whom you can expect a bounce-back in the touchdown department.

HacheMan · Nov 2, 2013

What happened to RG III?

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Don't forget I do a twice-weekly podcast called the Fantasy Underground, where Field "Eminem Quotation Machine" Yates and I discuss what we've seen on film, and how it relates to your fantasy team. Subscribe on iTunes; that way you'll never miss a show! And while you're at it, follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN. All right, let's get to today's topics:

Four In Depth:

1. What the heck happened to Robert Griffin III last week? Things were looking so good for RG III. In his first four games, he'd only run out of the read-option four times total. Then in Weeks 6 and 7 against the Cowboys and Chicago Bears, he kept the ball on option looks 12 times, including eight against the Bears. And he looked terrific doing it. I featured him in my Fantasy Underground: Film Room segment. The world was his oyster. Then he went to Denver last week and it all went to the dogs. Not only did RG III have five runs for seven yards and just keep it once on zone reads, he also went 15 of 30 for 132 passing yards, a TD and two picks, plus suffered three sacks and he left the game early after getting his other knee dinged up. It was a three-fantasy-point afternoon that had his owners (and me!) scratching their heads.

On film, he looked just as gnarly as those numbers would indicate. Despite the Washington Redskins holding a third-quarter lead, there was really no point at which Griffin was in control. His downfield throwing continues to be scattershot. He didn't escape anyone when he scrambled. And while the Skins ran the read-option a number of times, RG III kept handing it off despite the fact that there were at least a few runs where the defensive end was cheating toward Alfred Morris or Roy Helu, and Griffin looked like he could've kept it and had hearty gains. It was strange. I honestly don't have an explanation for why RG III would go through the motions of sticking the ball into his RB's tummy while only keeping it once. In that respect, all his owners can really do is hope it was an aberration, that no problems have cropped up with his rehabbed ACL, and that as early as Week 9 against the San Diego Chargers, he'll go back to being a running threat.

As for his tosses, there was a common misconception that RG III was a terrific downfield thrower in his rookie season, and he did make some fine long plays. But he also tied Christian Ponder for 27th in attempts that traveled 20 or more air yards. Here in '13, he's thrown it deep more (he's currently tied for 14th in such attempts), but he's 6 of 29 on those tosses with a QBR of -- get this -- 4.7. (That's not a misprint.) Clearly Griffin has more than enough wing to make any throw on the field. But his decision making has been suspect. I'm not sure what he was doing throwing to Aldrick Robinson deep into double-coverage early last Sunday, but he's lucky it wasn't picked. And his late-over-the-middle, fallaway toss in the second quarter definitely should've been intercepted, and is the kind of pass for which Blaine Gabbert is rightly criticized. Everyone has a bad game, and the Denver Broncos are tough. But it was a discouraging effort, a week after the sun finally seemed to be shining on Griffin. Hopefully he finds the sledding easier in Week 9, or a re-evaluation will be due.

2. VBD at the (roughly) halfway mark. How historic has Peyton Manning's season been so far? Well, despite the fact that I think he's played below average (at least for him) in each of his past two contests (which could be related to his ankle injuries), Manning is on pace to be fantasy's MVP, which is quite a difficult task for a quarterback to pull off in Value-Based Drafting terms. In fact, since 2001, only Tom Brady in '07 has done so, and Manning is on pace to shatter Tom Terrific's NFL-record 50 TDs from that magical season. Peyton could still easily be passed by one of the top running backs, but through eight weeks, he's the man:

Rank	Player	Position
1	Peyton Manning	QB
2	Jamaal Charles	RB
3	Matt Forte	RB
4	Knowshon Moreno	RB
5	Reggie Bush	RB
6	Adrian Peterson	RB
7	Drew Brees	QB
8	Jimmy Graham	TE
9	Marshawn Lynch	RB
10	LeSean McCoy	RB
11	Jordy Nelson	WR
12	Frank Gore	RB
13	Calvin Johnson	WR
14	Aaron Rodgers	QB
15	Dez Bryant	WR
16	Fred Jackson	RB
17	Arian Foster	RB
18	Matthew Stafford	QB
19	Wes Welker	WR
20	Alfred Morris	RB

Jimmy Graham is still hanging in there, justifying his second-round selection (heck, at this point, he should've been a first-rounder), but if you're a Graham owner -- as I am -- you know there's a big-time risk in Graham's foot limiting him to 17 snaps in Sunday's win over the Buffalo Bills. The most valuable position in fantasy, through the VBD lens at least, continues to be RB, with seven in the top 10 and 11 in the top 20. However, as is always the case, if you invested a first-round pick in the wrong potential superstar RB, you suffered the consequences. Ray Rice, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson and Doug Martin have been major problems (though I give Rice and Spiller a chance to recoup some of their losses in the second half). The big shocker here is certainly Knowshon Moreno, whom most observers -- myself included -- had relegated to third string or possibly the scrap heap this summer. I wouldn't say Moreno is great. But he's in the right place at the right time, playing with the right QB.

3. Defensive units who have improved. My defensive metrics -- which measure how far above or below a player's average a defense is able to hold that player -- try to be as schedule-neutral as possible and isolate who's playing well and not so well against run or passing games. When I see interesting data in these metrics, I check the film to find the source. Here are four units I think have legitimately improved, and become tougher matchups for opposing offenses:

St. Louis Rams run defense. It was eye-catching to see that the Rams, who spent the early part of the season allowing DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore and Arian Foster to run all over them, stood up to DeAngelo Williams and Marshawn Lynch over the past two weeks. The leading culprit is Robert Quinn, who obviously made his biggest splash rushing the passer against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night, but who also did yeoman's work stopping the run, especially against the Carolina Panthers in Week 7. No longer does this unit look like the league's worst in terms of stopping the run; Chris Johnson is still probably a fantasy starter this week, but I'll be interested to see the results.

Detroit Lions run defense. After an inconsistent first month during which the Lions' vaunted defensive line offered inconsistent discipline -- Ndamukong Suh is clearly most interested in getting to the passer, but when he's focused on it, he can be a studly run defender, too -- things here have improved, too. Rookie Ziggy Ansah has been part of the reason; he's got four sacks but has disappeared getting after the QB at times, yet he made big run-stuffing plays Week 6 versus the Cleveland Browns and last week versus the Dallas Cowboys.

Washington Redskins against opposing QBs. Remember the Skins' opening night versus Michael Vick, and the historic day they allowed Aaron Rodgers the following week? Things have gotten better, Brandon Meriwether's thuggish safety play notwithstanding. Listen, it wasn't encouraging to watch Josh McCown do business against them in Week 7, but in the games before (Dallas) and after (Denver), corners DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson held their own, and Hall has made some plays. I don't fear this group, but I no longer consider them ultra-juicy. (That distinction is left for the Redskins' run defense.)

Green Bay Packers versus opposing WRs. It seems like a long time ago that the Pack got eviscerated by Anquan Boldin (remember that?). Despite a raft of injuries on all three levels of Green Bay's defense, we've seen Josh Gordon and Torrey Smith stay awfully quiet against them in the past month. (The Lions didn't have Calvin Johnson active when they played the Packers.) Sam Shields has been solid, and it's good news that Tramon Williams maybe had his best game of the year last week against the Minnesota Vikings. But the best news may actually be that Nick Perry has flashed as a situational pass rusher the past two weeks, something we just haven't seen before from the second-year linebacker.

4. Is it officially the Harry Douglas show in Atlanta? You could immediately tell that the Atlanta Falcons regretted not targeting Douglas in the first quarter last week against the Arizona Cardinals, because on their first two plays of the second quarter, they threw Douglas one WR screen on the left side, then turned around and ran the exact same play to the other side. And then just to cap things off, two plays later they did it again, back to the left. Those three plays only went for 17 yards, but definitely got Douglas involved.

Now, the first time Matt Ryan threw it to Douglas more than about three yards from the line of scrimmage came in desperation mode at the end of the first half, down 21-6. The next time Douglas got a deeper ball was down 27-6 as Tyrann Mathieu sat on a short route and Ryan popped it deep over his head. Of his 18 targets, Douglas saw exactly five travel more than seven air yards, and while he caught two of them, two were intercepted. This was pure dink-and-dunk stuff.

Listen, 18 targets are 18 targets. It's a massive workload, tied for the third-most in a game for the entire season. So it's absolutely worthwhile to consider starting Douglas this week, even against a tough Carolina Panthers defense. But this is decidedly not the same role made famous by Julio Jones and Roddy White. It's more like a Wes Welker role, except Douglas doesn't have Welker's crazy quickness. He's not always running out of the slot, but he is usually running some delayed short cross, serving as a safety valve when Ryan can't find someone else further downfield. It can be valuable, especially in a PPR league. I have Douglas ranked 14th among WRs in this heavily bye-depleted week. But don't be fooled into believing Douglas is ready to be Julio or Roddy, and if Roddy ever comes back to full health this year, he'll be the more valuable fantasy commodity by a wide margin.

Three In Brief:

5. Why you're allowed to be skeptical of Tony Romo ... and keep starting him. Color me generally unimpressed with Romo's tape lately. He worked his way up to 20 fantasy points versus the Lions last week, which makes the bottom line look respectable, but for three quarters he was merely so-so, a description that goes a long way toward classifying much of his season. Obviously it's not fair to remove his crazy 506-yard effort against the Broncos a month ago, but realize he's followed it up with 170, 317 and 206 passing yards in his past three games. Honestly, it's Terrance Williams making unexpectedly big plays despite running an ultra-limited route tree that's saved Romo's bacon, but when a QB has eclipsed 20 fantasy points exactly once all season (albeit by 20!), you're allowed to be suspicious. But then you look at the Cowboys' schedule, and you start feeling better. Romo gets the Vikings this week, then follows it up like this: @NO, bye, @NYG, OAK, @CHI, GB, @WAS, PHI. I did just get through telling you I think the Redskins and Packers have been better on the back end, but really, there's no defense here you should outright fear. I do not believe Romo finishes the season as a top-five fantasy QB. But he feels like just about a lock to finish top 10.

6. Fred Jackson's star may be setting. After Field and I recorded Thursday's podcast, in which we debated the "sell-high" merits of Mr. Jackson, the Bills strongly indicated that C.J. Spiller will return from his ankle injury and play in Week 9 in a rough matchup against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. I still would probably prefer to start Jackson over Spiller this week, if only because I don't trust that Spiller's ankle is going to look fully healed yet. But as I've said several times over the past couple weeks, when Spiller is healthy, he becomes a second-half breakout candidate. I don't believe Jackson goes away. He's a nice player who has kept his fantasy value buoyant with some short TDs over the past month. But the chunk gains we saw in September have waned, because frankly that's not the kind of player he is. All this is to say: I think the peak of Jackson's value could be right this moment. No, we're not going to see Spiller getting so many carries he'll puke. But the Bills have to get the ball into their best player's hands, if that best player is close to 100 percent. I'd imagine that within a week or two, I'm going to be ranking Spiller ahead of Jackson once again.

7. Giovani Bernard is awesome. Listen, touchdowns come and touchdowns go. But anyone who watched Thursday night's Cincinnati Bengals national TV game now knows what Cincy fans and tape-watchers have known since opening day: Bernard is a stud. He's not big and he's not the NFL's fastest RB, but he's above average at absolutely everything and his change-of-direction is flat-out dirty. His second TD run against the Miami Dolphins, during which he wove through the entire defense, is simply a run that most players aren't capable of. I understand why Cincy keeps BenJarvus Green-Ellis around; He's solid in blitz pickup, he's a veteran presence, and he'll reliably get you what's blocked. But the Law Firm is touching the ball too much. And trust me, I was saying this before Thursday night. There's no excuse for Gio getting fewer than 15 touches in a game, as he did both in Weeks 7 and 8. There's a reason Bernard was a flag player of mine this summer, and there's a reason Field and I both called him our rookie of the year way back in September. Even coming off the meager workloads in his past two games, I rated Gio No. 21 among RBs, and he has to be a No. 2 RB or flex in every league every single week. Provided the rib injury he apparently suffered in the fourth quarter Thursday isn't serious, hopefully the Bengals will tilt the workload balance further in Bernard's favor in the second half.

HacheMan · Nov 2, 2013

Sneaky pickups entering Week 9

Eric Karabell

Consider me among the many who snickered a bit when the Tennessee Titans signed running back Shonn Greene to a three-year contract back in March, and seemed proud for doing so. There were several reasons for that. One, while it’s common practice for fantasy owners to whine about Chris Johnson, wondering why he can’t rush for 2,000 yards in a season all the time, he remains employed by the team and capable of being a top-10 running back. Two, well, it’s Shonn Greene, the former New York Jets plodder who doesn’t catch passes, doesn’t have breakaway speed and isn’t exactly Jerome Bettis at the goal line, either.

Greene is apparently healthy from his knee woes and ready to contribute, and Titans coach Mike Munchak seems committed to seeing what he can do, telling surprised reporters on Wednesday that the running back’s workload should be in the 15-carry range. OK, so that seems odd to me as well, but the coach actually said it. It doesn’t mean it will happen, especially since Johnson is still active and hasn’t received as many as 13 rushing attempts in any of the team’s past three games, but who knows, maybe the Titans run the ball a ton this week. Greene’s return surely doesn’t figure to help Johnson’s value, but it’s hard to tell how this situation shakes out. After all, didn’t Chicago Bears personnel pinky-swear a month ago that Michael Bush would become really involved in the running game? That hasn’t happened. However, Matt Forte is playing some great football. Chris Johnson is not.

Fantasy owners need not overreact to what the Titans plan to do, and certainly it could be for the purposes of motivating Johnson, but make no mistake, Greene is potentially back in play for fantasy purposes. He played in Week 1, but rushed only four times for 18 yards before leaving with a hurt knee. He saw one carry in Week 7, and now he and his team come off the bye week. He’s available in roughly half of ESPN’s standard leagues and since our job in this space each Friday is to point out sneaky free-agent signings in the fantasy world, well, Greene fits the description. He’s readily available and could matter. I mean, who thought Knowshon Moreno would matter? He’s the No. 2 running back for season scoring! Who thought Joique Bell would have a third more fantasy points than first-rounder Trent Richardson? Skills matter, and while many question Greene’s, perhaps the Titans don’t agree.

After all, they did upgrade the offensive line last offseason; quarterback Jake Locker does seem to be breaking out; and Greene, for all the fun people make of him, did achieve 1,000 rushing yards each of the past two seasons for the Jets, and scored more touchdowns than Johnson. Terrific ESPN colleague KC Joyner recommended Johnson in his recent article on second-half breakout running backs, and I concur that the team’s schedule looks a whole lot better the rest of the way. Then again, it also looks better for Greene.

Running back: Sticking with the most annoying of fantasy positions, at least this season, it’s also a wise time to add a few fellows who could return to the field in the next two weeks. The Giants’ Andre Brown (Week 10) and Patriots’ Shane Vereen (Week 11) are two examples following their teams’ bye week. It would hardly be a surprise if those guys are top-30 options in our rankings when they return. … I don’t think anything is wrong with Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch, but he looked terrible -- and barely used -- Monday, and yeah, it dawned on me that if he’s hurt, Christine Michael would look really good on a fantasy team’s bench. Robert Turbin would probably start, though. Sign him first. … The 49ers’ Frank Gore has looked just dandy in recent weeks, but the team says it intends to get LaMichael James more involved moving forward. At least he’s healthy now. … As mentioned last week, the Houston Texans did re-sign Deji Karim, and he does have a chance to matter this weekend if Arian Foster and Ben Tate can’t play.

Wide receiver: The Miami Dolphins lost slot guy Brandon Gibson for the season after he tore his knee, and word is Rishard Matthews will simply inherit the role. Meaningless, right? Well, Gibson has outscored Mike Wallace this season, so no, this is not meaningless. In Thursday’s game, Matthews caught just two of his four targets for 24 yards, but keep an eye on this situation. … On the other side of Florida, cut Mike Williams. His season is over. In a deep league, take a chance on Tiquan Underwood, then Chris Owusu. … The fantasy world eagerly awaits Percy Harvin returning for the Seahawks, but what if he doesn’t? Sidney Rice is also done for the year. (Tough week for wide receivers, eh?) Doug Baldwin will get chances this week. … Darrius Heyward-Bey won’t produce Reggie Wayne numbers, but he should be owned in more than 11 percent of leagues. That’s really low. I’m also curious to see how many snaps LaVon Brazill receives. He just looks like he should be able to play. … As with Vereen and Brown, the Detroit Lions could get Nate Burleson back in a week, and he could start. Alongside Calvin Johnson. Think about it. And rehabbing Mario Manningham could be starting for San Francisco soon as well.

Well, best of luck to all the rest of Week 9 and beyond, and have a great weekend!

HacheMan · Nov 4, 2013

[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 9[/h][h=3]Zac Stacy a pleasant surprise, Ray Rice difficult to own[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

It seems pretty funny to be leading our weekly review piece with a St. Louis Rams running back, considering the Rams hadn't rushed for a single touchdown entering Week 9. But that stat is now defunct, and frankly it wouldn't matter if it wasn't. That's how good Zac Stacy looks at the moment.
It's funny, when the Rams took Stacy in the fifth round of April's draft, he instantly shot to the top of the sleeper rolls, despite the fact that hardly anyone had seen him play at Vanderbilt. That was because the St. Louis RB depth chart was unimpressive in the post-Steven Jackson era. Daryl Richardson? Isaiah Pead? Yuck. Yet Stacy was crummy in the preseason, and by Week 2 was a healthy scratch. Heck, fellow rookie Benny Cunningham was playing ahead of him. But no more.

Five weeks ago on the Fantasy Underground podcast, my partner Field Yates nominated Stacy as the player who'd come from nowhere to be ownable in all leagues. What a call! Almost immediately, Stacy began laying down game film that should be the envy of RBs around the world. Squat, heavy and powerful, and most important blessed with ridiculous balance, Stacy is in the process of dominating the NFL. He carried it 26 times for 134 yards against the Seattle Seahawks last Monday, and Sunday he chopped up the Tennessee Titans to the tune of 33 touches for 178 yards and two TDs. The performance was as good as the numbers. Stacy isn't a game-breaker, and he's not the beneficiary of great blocking. He's just a thumping pinball with great power and even greater want-to.

I know, it's Kellen Clemens, and he just fumbled away this week's game. I know the Rams' season is cooked. But Stacy has earned every-week starter status, and as some heavily publicized RBs continue to sputter, it's fair to wonder if he'll soon be inside his positional top 10. The Alfred Morris comparisons are starting to look mighty apt.

Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• Speaking of Morris, he had a very nice Sunday in the Washington Redskins' overtime win, finishing with 25 carries, 121 yards and a TD. He's rock solid, but it could've been so much better. Fullback Darrel Young pilfered three short TDs on the same misdirection play, where Robert Griffin III quickly gave it to Young, then faked as though he was going to give it to Morris. The San Diego Chargers never adjusted. No, there's utterly no reason to pick up Young.

• As good as Darrel Young's day was, it pales by comparison to Nick Foles'. If you had Foles torching the Oakland Raiders defense -- which had been better than average against the pass over the past month -- for seven passing TDs, well, you're nuts. But you also were correct. Foles tossed for 406 yards and zero picks, and became only the seventh QB in NFL history to have seven TD passes in a game (remember, Peyton Manning did it opening night against the Baltimore Ravens). Do I believe in Foles as a fantasy entity going forward? I'm going to give my answer to that question in the form of a treasure hunt. Go look up Foles' stat line from Week 7 against the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Riley Cooper has eclipsed 88 yards receiving in three of his past four, and logged a mere 32 fantasy points Sunday. He's an add, I suppose, but I still find him tough to trust.

• Last Friday, I wrote that the Rams had played better against the run, and they had. But that resurgence lasted only two games. Chris Johnson ripped a 23-yard run on the game's first play from scrimmage, then was very quiet for the remainder of the first half. But CJ1K owned the second half, with 15 touches for 106 yards and a TD. His day could've been bigger, too, as Shonn Greene is back and seems set to play inside an opponent's 5; he scored a rushing TD, as did Jake Locker. But for a day, anyway, Johnson stirred the echoes.

• Ray Rice is not fixed. Hey, the Cleveland Browns can definitely play defense, but there's no excuse for 38 total yards on 14 touches, especially when 18 of those yards came on a dump-off in lieu of an end-of-game Hail Mary. Rice not performing isn't news, I suppose, but I mention it here by way of pointing out that all the Baltimore Ravens puff pieces about how Rice's burst is back and the team used its bye to address its offensive line problems were baloney. I have no doubt about Rice's talent. But he's trapped in one of the league's least creative, least space-making, and weirdest offenses. If you want to bench him, feel free to do so.

• Has the balance of power shifted back to C.J. Spiller in the Buffalo Bills backfield? On at least two occasions, Spiller looked like his ankle was killing him and he wouldn't be able to continue, but both times he came back (once after halftime, during which one assumes a needle was involved). And he broke off plays of 27, 29 and 61 yards, and ended the day with 155 total yards. Meanwhile, Fred Jackson out-touched Spiller 17-14 and did produce 99 yards of his own, but on a crucial third-quarter possession he had two carries from inside the Kansas City Chiefs' 5-yard line and was stuffed on each. (Jeff Tuel proceeded to throw a pick-six on third down.) Jackson isn't going any place for sure, and I can't promise I'm definitely ranking him below Spiller next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But Spiller is back to being a starting option.

• Chris Ivory gave his old team an up-close look at what they traded away, with 139 yards rushing on 19 carries, including a TD. His 52-yard scamper from deep in his territory in the second quarter was perhaps the play that best stemmed the New Orleans Saints' momentum; the New York Jets were down 7-3 and facing a long field. In two of the past three contests, Ivory has been a workhorse and Bilal Powell a complement, and I think not coincidentally, the Jets have won those two games. In that horrible Week 8 effort against the Cincinnati Bengals, Powell was on the field more (because the team was down so big), and things didn't go as well. Ivory is at least an every-week flex.

• I see you, Tom Brady. That was better. Certainly, the New England Patriots' passing game benefited from some dreadful play by the Steelers defense. Danny Amendola's TD came on a blown coverage and his 57-yard gain was almost exactly the same: Troy Polamalu cheating, trying to make a big play and unfortunately covering the wrong man. Rob Gronkowski got a free release off the line way too often, and it resulted in nine grabs for 143 yards and his first TD of the season. (He also came within inches of another score.) And Aaron Dobson overcame still more drops to make the game-clinching TD grab on a fly down the left side, resulting in an 81-yard score. And so Brady wound up with 432 yards passing, four TDs and zero INTs. Is he all the way back? You have a week to decide, because the Pats are off in Week 10.

• In the same game, Stevan Ridley lost a fumble on a catch, but fortunately the Pats didn't get freaked out this time. They put him right back in there, and he was a stud in the second half. He slashed through big creases and punished would-be tacklers, and if Josh McDaniels decides to use any other RB as his primary back next week, I officially give up. For the record, Ridley produced 124 yards on 29 touches and two TDs.

• We may be through with considering the Seahawks defense as a bad matchup for opposing rushers. A week after Stacy ran through them like butter, Mike James did the same, in Seattle no less. James wound up with 158 rushing yards on 28 carries and his longest run was just 21, so this wasn't just a fluke stat line. James is a nice story as a rookie inheritor of Doug Martin's job, but he's not what you'd call a transcendent talent. The reason to be worried about Steven Jackson in Week 10 is more about his health and ability, and not so much his matchup against the Seahawks.

• Keenan Allen showed an impressive quality for a rookie Sunday: stick-to-itiveness. Allen struggled early, with a couple drops and an offensive pass interference call. With seven minutes left in regulation, he was stuck on three catches for 43 yards. But on two crucial drives that helped the Chargers get to overtime, Allen tormented rookie Redskins corner David Amerson for another five grabs, 85 yards and a TD. A cynic would say it's a dangerous game to trust a kid who can disappear for so long. But I'm taking the other view: He showed up when it mattered most. Once again, I'm impressed.

• But I'm not as impressed with Allen as I am with Andre Johnson. Sure, T.Y. Hilton is a great story from Sunday night, too, as he scored three TDs in a huge comeback win. But Hilton dropped passes and generally looked uncomfortable as the main Indianapolis Colts receiving threat unless he was running straight down the field. He's wicked fast, so that's a good thing, and his value is on the rise. But defenses will start catching on to that, so it would be nice to see Hilton be better on the short stuff. Anyway, it was AJ who really blossomed with Case Keenum flinging it to him. Thirteen targets? Nine catches for 229 yards? Three TDs? Yes, please.

• Surprise! Darren McFadden is hurt again. He pulled (re-pulled? re-re-pulled?) his hamstring at the beginning of the second quarter, and Rashad Jennings took over. You know the drill here. DMC isn't playing next week, and will probably miss multiple games. That makes Jennings a smart desperation add (he did score a red-zone TD and eclipse the 100-yard mark, albeit mostly in garbage time), but Marcel Reece will probably return from fantasy obscurity to be a drain.
• Not to be outdone by DMC, Arian Foster presented his second consecutive thumb in the eye to his fantasy owners by suiting up and leaving ridiculously early with an injury. As of this writing, it sounded like Foster was forced from Sunday night's game because of a back injury, but he did nothing athletic on the Houston Texans' first possession, so I'm not going to be surprised if we hear it was still all about his hamstring. Anyway, Ben Tate was the main man in Foster's stead, with undrafted rookie Dennis Johnson backing him up.
• Jerricho Cotchery, not Antonio Brown. Marlon Brown, not Torrey Smith. Davone Bess, not Josh Gordon or Jordan Cameron. Of course. Cotchery scored three TDs on seven grabs; he offers nothing after the catch, but clearly Ben Roethlisberger considers him after ruling out his more explosive options. Marlon Brown had two TDs on five grabs; Smith was covered by Joe Haden throughout the game, though he did shake free for five catches of his own for 78 yards. And Bess also scored twice, the second of which came on a sweet ankle-breaking move that left Lardarius Webb in his wake. In standard leagues, you probably can't chase any of these guys, alas.

• Ho hum, Jimmy Graham scored two more TDs, putting him on pace for 20. He probably won't get there. I guess. Maybe. OK, he probably will. I don't know. It's crazy.

	<CENTER>Start</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stud</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QB	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
RB	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
WR	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
TE	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
K	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
D/ST	Top 10	Top 2	21st+

Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>Start</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stud</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>	<CENTER>Sat</CENTER>	<CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal Charles	KC	100.0%	RB	8	8	4	0	0	100.0%
Matt Forte	Chi	100.0%	RB	7	7	3	0	0	100.0%
Peyton Manning	Den	87.5%	QB	8	7	3	0	0	87.5%
Wes Welker	Den	87.5%	WR	8	7	0	0	0	87.5%
Jordan Cameron	Cle	87.5%	TE	8	7	1	1	0	87.5%
Fred Jackson	Buf	87.5%	RB	8	7	1	0	0	87.5%
LeSean McCoy	Phi	87.5%	RB	8	7	3	0	0	75.0%
Frank Gore	SF	87.5%	RB	8	7	2	0	0	75.0%
Drew Brees	NO	85.7%	QB	7	6	3	0	0	85.7%
Jordy Nelson	GB	85.7%	WR	7	6	1	0	0	85.7%
Alfred Morris	Wsh	85.7%	RB	7	6	0	0	0	85.7%
Adrian Peterson	Min	85.7%	RB	7	6	2	0	0	71.4%
Julius Thomas	Den	75.0%	TE	8	6	2	1	0	75.0%
Matthew Stafford	Det	75.0%	QB	8	6	1	0	0	75.0%
Knowshon Moreno	Den	75.0%	RB	8	6	4	0	0	75.0%
Seahawks D/ST	Sea	75.0%	D/ST	8	6	1	0	0	75.0%
49ers D/ST	SF	75.0%	D/ST	8	6	1	2	0	75.0%
Dez Bryant	Dal	75.0%	WR	8	6	3	2	0	62.5%
Julio Jones	Atl	71.4%	WR	5	5	1	0	2	71.4%
Arian Foster	Hou	71.4%	RB	7	5	1	0	0	71.4%
Jimmy Graham	NO	71.4%	TE	7	5	4	1	0	71.4%
Darren McFadden	Oak	71.4%	RB	6	5	1	0	1	71.4%
Aaron Rodgers	GB	71.4%	QB	7	5	1	1	0	71.4%
Eddie Lacy	GB	71.4%	RB	6	5	1	1	1	71.4%
Panthers D/ST	Car	71.4%	D/ST	7	5	2	1	0	71.4%
Brandon Marshall	Chi	71.4%	WR	7	5	1	0	0	57.1%
DeAngelo Williams	Car	71.4%	RB	7	5	0	0	0	57.1%
Chris Johnson	Ten	71.4%	RB	7	5	0	0	0	42.9%
Reggie Bush	Det	62.5%	RB	7	5	3	0	1	75.0%
DeMarco Murray	Dal	62.5%	RB	6	5	1	0	2	62.5%
Chiefs D/ST	KC	62.5%	D/ST	8	5	2	0	0	62.5%
Marshawn Lynch	Sea	62.5%	RB	8	5	2	0	0	62.5%
Matt Prater	Den	62.5%	K	8	5	1	1	0	62.5%
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	62.5%	K	8	5	2	1	0	62.5%
Demaryius Thomas	Den	62.5%	WR	8	5	2	0	0	62.5%
A.J. Green	Cin	62.5%	WR	8	5	2	1	0	62.5%
Calvin Johnson	Det	62.5%	WR	7	5	3	2	1	62.5%
Vernon Davis	SF	62.5%	TE	7	5	2	1	1	50.0%
Doug Martin	TB	57.1%	RB	6	4	0	0	1	57.1%
Garrett Hartley	NO	57.1%	K	7	4	0	1	0	57.1%
Matt Ryan	Atl	57.1%	QB	7	4	0	0	0	57.1%
Charles Clay	Mia	57.1%	RB	7	4	0	0	0	57.1%
Philip Rivers	SD	57.1%	QB	7	4	0	1	0	57.1%
Antonio Gates	SD	57.1%	TE	7	4	0	2	0	57.1%
Andrew Luck	Ind	57.1%	QB	7	4	1	1	0	57.1%
Justin Tucker	Bal	57.1%	K	7	4	1	2	0	57.1%
Robbie Gould	Chi	57.1%	K	7	4	0	1	0	57.1%
Antonio Brown	Pit	57.1%	WR	7	4	1	0	0	57.1%
Mason Crosby	GB	57.1%	K	7	4	2	2	0	57.1%
Denarius Moore	Oak	57.1%	WR	7	4	0	1	0	42.9%
Jermichael Finley	GB	57.1%	TE	6	4	1	2	1	42.9%
Martellus Bennett	Chi	57.1%	TE	7	4	1	1	0	42.9%
Ryan Mathews	SD	57.1%	RB	7	4	1	1	0	42.9%
DeSean Jackson	Phi	50.0%	WR	8	4	2	2	0	62.5%
Russell Wilson	Sea	50.0%	QB	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Dan Carpenter	Buf	50.0%	K	8	4	0	1	0	50.0%
Cowboys D/ST	Dal	50.0%	D/ST	8	4	1	3	0	50.0%
Tony Romo	Dal	50.0%	QB	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Victor Cruz	NYG	50.0%	WR	8	4	2	1	0	50.0%
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	2	0	50.0%
Josh Gordon	Cle	50.0%	WR	6	4	1	1	2	50.0%
Dan Bailey	Dal	50.0%	K	8	4	2	3	0	50.0%
Bengals D/ST	Cin	50.0%	D/ST	8	4	1	2	0	50.0%
Andre Ellington	Ari	50.0%	RB	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	50.0%	RB	8	4	0	0	0	50.0%
Nick Folk	NYJ	50.0%	K	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Terrance Williams	Dal	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	3	0	37.5%
Marvin Jones	Cin	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	4	0	37.5%
Zac Stacy	StL	50.0%	RB	6	4	0	2	2	25.0%
Danny Woodhead	SD	42.9%	RB	7	3	1	1	0	85.7%
Andre Johnson	Hou	42.9%	WR	7	3	0	2	0	57.1%
Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	42.9%	RB	7	3	2	1	0	57.1%
Torrey Smith	Bal	42.9%	WR	7	3	1	1	0	57.1%
Reggie Wayne	Ind	42.9%	WR	7	3	0	1	0	57.1%
Randall Cobb	GB	42.9%	WR	5	3	0	0	2	42.9%
Jason Snelling	Atl	42.9%	RB	6	3	1	1	1	42.9%
Vincent Jackson	TB	42.9%	WR	7	3	2	2	0	42.9%
Shaun Suisham	Pit	42.9%	K	7	3	2	3	0	42.9%
Steve Smith	Car	42.9%	WR	7	3	0	1	0	42.9%
Jay Cutler	Chi	42.9%	QB	7	3	0	2	0	42.9%
Matt Schaub	Hou	42.9%	QB	6	3	0	3	1	42.9%
Colts D/ST	Ind	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	1	2	0	42.9%
Trent Richardson	Ind	42.9%	RB	7	3	0	0	0	42.9%
Titans D/ST	Ten	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	1	1	0	42.9%
Nick Novak	SD	42.9%	K	7	3	2	4	0	42.9%
Bears D/ST	Chi	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	0	3	0	42.9%
Jake Locker	Ten	42.9%	QB	5	3	0	1	2	42.9%
Alshon Jeffery	Chi	42.9%	WR	7	3	2	3	0	42.9%
Eddie Royal	SD	42.9%	WR	7	3	1	3	0	42.9%
Coby Fleener	Ind	42.9%	TE	7	3	0	4	0	42.9%
Adam Vinatieri	Ind	42.9%	K	7	3	2	1	0	42.9%
Cam Newton	Car	42.9%	QB	7	3	2	2	0	42.9%
Ted Ginn	Car	42.9%	WR	7	3	0	3	0	42.9%
Greg Olsen	Car	42.9%	TE	7	3	0	1	0	42.9%
Lamar Miller	Mia	42.9%	RB	7	3	0	2	0	42.9%
Kyle Rudolph	Min	42.9%	TE	7	3	0	4	0	42.9%
Packers D/ST	GB	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	1	2	0	42.9%
Saints D/ST	NO	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	0	1	0	42.9%
Raiders D/ST	Oak	42.9%	D/ST	7	3	0	1	0	42.9%
Mike Tolbert	Car	42.9%	RB	7	3	0	1	0	42.9%
Le'Veon Bell	Pit	42.9%	RB	4	3	0	0	3	42.9%
James Jones	GB	42.9%	WR	5	3	0	2	2	28.6%
Daniel Thomas	Mia	42.9%	RB	7	3	0	2	0	28.6%
Marlon Brown	Bal	42.9%	WR	6	3	0	2	1	14.3%
Giovani Bernard	Cin	37.5%	RB	8	3	1	0	0	62.5%
Bilal Powell	NYJ	37.5%	RB	8	3	0	1	0	50.0%
Eric Decker	Den	37.5%	WR	8	3	2	1	0	50.0%
Joique Bell	Det	37.5%	RB	8	3	2	0	0	50.0%
Brandon Bolden	NE	37.5%	RB	6	3	0	2	2	50.0%
Sam Bradford	StL	37.5%	QB	7	3	0	1	1	37.5%
Browns D/ST	Cle	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	2	0	37.5%
Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	37.5%	WR	8	3	0	5	0	37.5%
David Akers	Det	37.5%	K	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Jason Witten	Dal	37.5%	TE	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Lions D/ST	Det	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	3	0	37.5%
Geno Smith	NYJ	37.5%	QB	8	3	0	5	0	37.5%
Steven Hauschka	Sea	37.5%	K	8	3	0	1	0	37.5%
Bills D/ST	Buf	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Alex Smith	KC	37.5%	QB	8	3	0	2	0	37.5%
Ryan Succop	KC	37.5%	K	8	3	0	4	0	37.5%
Cardinals D/ST	Ari	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Greg Zuerlein	StL	37.5%	K	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Patriots D/ST	NE	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	1	0	37.5%
Steve Johnson	Buf	37.5%	WR	7	3	0	2	1	37.5%
Broncos D/ST	Den	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Scott Chandler	Buf	37.5%	TE	8	3	0	5	0	37.5%
Golden Tate	Sea	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Rams D/ST	StL	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Andy Dalton	Cin	37.5%	QB	8	3	2	3	0	37.5%
Colin Kaepernick	SF	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Jay Feely	Ari	37.5%	K	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Stevan Ridley	NE	37.5%	RB	7	3	1	0	1	37.5%
Josh Brown	NYG	37.5%	K	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Rueben Randle	NYG	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	4	0	25.0%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	37.5%	RB	8	3	0	1	0	25.0%
Rashard Mendenhall	Ari	37.5%	RB	7	3	0	1	1	25.0%
Pierre Thomas	NO	28.6%	RB	7	2	1	0	0	57.1%
Pierre Garcon	Wsh	28.6%	WR	7	2	1	0	0	42.9%
Darren Sproles	NO	28.6%	RB	7	2	1	1	0	42.9%
Roy Helu	Wsh	28.6%	RB	7	2	1	2	0	42.9%
Ray Rice	Bal	28.6%	RB	6	2	1	2	1	42.9%
Jordan Reed	Wsh	28.6%	TE	6	2	1	1	1	42.9%
Mike Wallace	Mia	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Tony Gonzalez	Atl	28.6%	TE	7	2	1	2	0	28.6%
Caleb Sturgis	Mia	28.6%	K	7	2	1	2	0	28.6%
Blair Walsh	Min	28.6%	K	7	2	0	2	0	28.6%
Brian Hartline	Mia	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	1	0	28.6%
Matt Bryant	Atl	28.6%	K	7	2	0	1	0	28.6%
Buccaneers D/ST	TB	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	0	2	0	28.6%
Brandon LaFell	Car	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	4	0	28.6%
Jerome Simpson	Min	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	5	0	28.6%
Dolphins D/ST	Mia	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	0	2	0	28.6%
Marques Colston	NO	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	28.6%	K	7	2	0	5	0	28.6%
Robert Griffin III	Wsh	28.6%	QB	7	2	0	2	0	28.6%
Graham Gano	Car	28.6%	K	7	2	1	2	0	28.6%
Vikings D/ST	Min	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	1	3	0	28.6%
Nate Washington	Ten	28.6%	WR	7	2	1	3	0	28.6%
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	28.6%	WR	7	2	1	3	0	28.6%
Ravens D/ST	Bal	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	1	1	0	28.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw	Ind	28.6%	RB	3	2	1	0	4	28.6%
Bernard Pierce	Bal	28.6%	RB	7	2	0	1	0	28.6%
Ben Tate	Hou	28.6%	RB	7	2	0	1	0	28.6%
Keenan Allen	SD	28.6%	WR	6	2	0	2	1	28.6%
Dallas Clark	Bal	28.6%	TE	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Kendall Wright	Ten	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	1	0	28.6%
DeAndre Hopkins	Hou	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Chargers D/ST	SD	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Redskins D/ST	Wsh	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	1	1	0	28.6%
Emmanuel Sanders	Pit	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	2	0	28.6%
James Starks	GB	28.6%	RB	4	2	1	1	3	28.6%
Timothy Wright	TB	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	5	0	28.6%
Steelers D/ST	Pit	28.6%	D/ST	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Kenny Stills	NO	28.6%	WR	7	2	1	4	0	28.6%
Rian Lindell	TB	28.6%	K	7	2	0	3	0	28.6%
Harry Douglas	Atl	28.6%	WR	7	2	1	3	0	28.6%
Jarrett Boykin	GB	28.6%	WR	7	2	0	4	0	28.6%
Garrett Graham	Hou	28.6%	TE	7	2	0	4	0	14.3%
Mike Williams	TB	28.6%	WR	6	2	0	3	1	0.0%
Levine Toilolo	Atl	28.6%	TE	7	2	0	5	0	0.0%
Cecil Shorts	Jac	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	2	0	62.5%
Julian Edelman	NE	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	37.5%
Michael Vick	Phi	25.0%	QB	6	2	1	1	2	25.0%
Alex Henery	Phi	25.0%	K	8	2	1	3	0	25.0%
Anquan Boldin	SF	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	3	0	25.0%
Austin Pettis	StL	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
C.J. Spiller	Buf	25.0%	RB	7	2	0	1	1	25.0%
Phil Dawson	SF	25.0%	K	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Justin Blackmon	Jac	25.0%	WR	4	2	1	0	4	25.0%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	25.0%
Chris Ogbonnaya	Cle	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Mike Nugent	Cin	25.0%	K	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Jets D/ST	NYJ	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Sidney Rice	Sea	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	6	0	25.0%
Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	25.0%	WR	7	2	0	4	1	25.0%
Zach Miller	Sea	25.0%	TE	6	2	0	3	2	25.0%
Dexter McCluster	KC	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Dexter McCluster	KC	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Eagles D/ST	Phi	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Mike Brown	Jac	25.0%	WR	4	2	0	1	4	25.0%
Giants D/ST	NYG	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Peyton Hillis	NYG	25.0%	RB	2	2	0	0	6	25.0%
Joseph Fauria	Det	25.0%	TE	8	2	1	5	0	12.5%
Donnie Avery	KC	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Jeff Cumberland	NYJ	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Brent Celek	Phi	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	5	0	12.5%
Lance Kendricks	StL	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Kris Durham	Det	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Da'Rel Scott	NYG	25.0%	RB	5	2	0	2	3	12.5%
Joseph Randle	Dal	25.0%	RB	5	2	0	2	3	12.5%
Michael Floyd	Ari	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	2	0	12.5%
Kendall Hunter	SF	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	2	0	12.5%
Aaron Dobson	NE	25.0%	WR	7	2	0	2	1	12.5%
Jermaine Gresham	Cin	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Heath Miller	Pit	14.3%	TE	5	1	0	2	2	28.6%
Owen Daniels	Hou	14.3%	TE	5	1	0	1	2	28.6%
Donald Brown	Ind	14.3%	RB	7	1	0	2	0	28.6%
Delanie Walker	Ten	14.3%	TE	7	1	0	2	0	28.6%
Falcons D/ST	Atl	14.3%	D/ST	7	1	0	3	0	14.3%
Texans D/ST	Hou	14.3%	D/ST	7	1	0	2	0	14.3%
Riley Cooper	Phi	12.5%	WR	8	1	1	5	0	25.0%
Jared Cook	StL	12.5%	TE	8	1	1	4	0	25.0%
Kellen Winslow	NYJ	12.5%	TE	5	1	0	2	3	25.0%
Brandon Myers	NYG	12.5%	TE	8	1	0	5	0	25.0%
Daryl Richardson	StL	12.5%	RB	8	1	0	4	0	25.0%
Jaguars D/ST	Jac	0.0%	D/ST	8	0	0	6	0	0.0%

Eight Easiest Pass	Eight Toughest Pass	Eight Easiest Run	Eight Toughest Run
GB	IND	DEN	DET
CHI	JAC	CIN	NO
DET	STL	ARI	PHI
PHI	NYJ	HOU	MIA
DAL	DEN	WAS	SEA
WAS	ATL	BUF	MIN
BUF	PIT	CAR	SD
NYG	MIA	TEN	BAL

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	CAR	Cam Newton	+5
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin III	+4
QB	OAK	Terrelle Pryor	+4
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	+3
RB	OAK	Darren McFadden	+2
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	+2
RB	SD	Danny Woodhead	+2
RB	CIN	Giovani Bernard	+2
RB	SD	Ryan Mathews	+2
WR	CHI	Alshon Jeffery	+1
WR	OAK	Denarius Moore	+1
WR	WAS	Pierre Garcon	+1
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	+1
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	+1
RB	PIT	Le'Veon Bell	+1
TE	WAS	Jordan Reed	+1
WR	CAR	Steve Smith	+1
TE	CHI	Martellus Bennett	+1
TE	CAR	Greg Olsen	+1
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	+1
RB	DAL	Joseph Randle	+1

Eight Easiest Pass	Eight Toughest Pass	Eight Easiest Run	Eight Toughest Run
GB	IND	DEN	DET
CHI	JAC	CIN	NO
DET	STL	ARI	PHI
PHI	NYJ	HOU	MIA
DAL	DEN	WAS	SEA
WAS	ATL	BUF	MIN
BUF	PIT	CAR	SD
NYG	MIA	TEN	BAL

Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

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Eight Easiest Pass	Eight Toughest Pass	Eight Easiest Run	Eight Toughest Run
GB	IND	DEN	DET
CHI	JAC	CIN	NO
DET	STL	ARI	PHI
PHI	NYJ	HOU	MIA
DAL	DEN	WAS	SEA
WAS	ATL	BUF	MIN
BUF	PIT	CAR	SD
NYG	MIA	TEN	BAL