Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2013

[h=1]Should you panic on RG III?[/h][h=3]Lack of rushes have limited Robert Griffin III's output to this point[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Don't forget, I do a twice-weekly podcast called the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Fantasy Underground[/FONT], where Field Yates and I discuss what we've seen on film, and how it relates to your fantasy team. Subscribe on iTunes, that way you'll never miss a show! And while you're at it, follow me on Twitter [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]@CHarrisESPN[/FONT]. All right, let's get to today's topics:

Four In Depth:
1. The Trent Richardson trade, Cleveland Browns edition: Now that I'm over the shock, I believe it's my job to try to understand what the Browns are thinking. I rule out the idea that T-Rich is "damaged goods," except he's already suffered broken ribs as an NFL back, and needed two knee scopes before his rookie season. I also completely disregard the argument that Richardson is a bad "scheme fit," which is something the Browns were trying to sell to reporters Wednesday night. We can't completely rule out the human element, the idea that T-Rich has hitherto unknown maturity problems that were dragging his teammates down. (Under the "Department of Convenient Timing," I've no doubt such stories will come to light this week.) But this would be surprising, considering the extent to which Richardson was the new face of the Browns franchise.
I suppose we have to factor the franchise's desire to be "Unsteady For Teddy," whereby they get really bad, try to get a high draft pick, and select Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, if that's the case, that would mean the Browns secretly thought Richardson wasa difference-maker whose absence makes the team significantly worse.
Some combination of these conspiracy theories may track, but I'm a film guy, so I went back and watched Richardson's play this season. After all, he's got 105 yards on 31 carries, which isn't good. But anyone who wants to proclaim that T-Rich is some kind of plodding 224-pound doof of a running back should re-watch his first carry of the season, against theMiami Dolphins. It was a simple pitch to the left, well-blocked except for TE Gary Barnidge, who initially got a nice seal against LB Oliver Vernon, but lost his technique a little and allowed Vernon to get upfield. But Richardson attacked the perimeter with such speed that by the time Vernon pushed into his path, T-Rich was already past him and around the edge, getting a 9-yard gain. This was not the speed of a lumbering, fullback-style player. I'm not trying to sell him as Jamaal Charles. But he's not Jason Snelling, either.
Or look at Richardson's third carry of the season, on that same initial drive, a pretty simple run to the right where right guard Oniel Cousins gets jolted at the snap by DE Cameron Wake, and suddenly Wake is in the backfield to meet T-Rich. But Richardson sees it happen and accelerates, surprising a grasping Wake, who gets his hands on the RB, but who can't get enough of him. T-Rich's combination of power and speed get him to the edge, Wake tries to hold on but spins off and goes flying to the turf, and Richardson gets 10 yards.
Have there been plays where T-Rich got stuffed? Absolutely. But maybe not as many as his 3.4 yards-per-carry mark might indicate. In the first two games of this season, Richardson gained two yards or fewer on 12 of 31 attempts. That doesn't seem so bad when you consider Doug Martin has gained two yards or fewer on 29 of 53 attempts, or Marshawn Lynch on 25 of 45. No, I'm sorry, the evidence that Richardson is already some kind of plodding bust just isn't what I see. And that's what makes this such a weird, weird move.
Fantasy owners can invest in Willis McGahee and hope he stays healthy; he was a nice surprise for the Denver Broncos last year and should easily outpace Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey once he's up to speed. (Obie is a third-down back; Rainey is Bilal Powell.) But Richardson was almost literally the least of what was wrong with the Browns.
2. The Trent Richardson trade: Indianapolis Coltsedition: I've heard the argument floated that all University of Alabama RBs are overvalued (see also:Mark Ingram) because their offensive line is so dominant in the college game that rushers find copious room to roam that doesn't exist in the NFL. Maybe there's some truth to that. But in a single season, I've already seen Richardson do things that Ingram hasn't done in two years. The speed and change-of-direction with which Richardson attacks defenses when there's room to run is something Ingram has never shown. If you watch film on those two players, you'd swear Ingram is the bigger player (he's two inches shorter and 10 pounds lighter). In short, no RB's health is ever guaranteed, but we're talking about a 22-year-old who runs a 4.45 40 at 224 pounds, catches the ball wonderfully, is willingly physical when he needs to be and certainly says all the right things about being a team player. I'm sure I'm going to get scorned Browns fans telling me they're happy this move was made. But the idea that 31 NFL franchises wouldn't want Richardson is wrong.
So what happens in Indy? Well, hopefully we no longer need to ponder Donald Brown as a potential starter at some point this season. Ahmad Bradshaw loses all but handcuff value for T-Rich owners, as he'll put his extraordinary pass-protecting skills to use as the Colts' third-down back much of the time (though remember, Richardson excels in that role when he needs to).
T-Rich will be the power back for a squad that desperately wants to provide relief forAndrew Luck. Through two weeks, Luck has been sacked seven times and pressured another 19 times, which is too much. Against the Dolphins Sunday, the Indy O-line did an OK job at the game's beginning, but allowed more and more push up the middle until by the final few drives, Luck was having to tap-dance in the pocket to stay upright. He's remarkably adept at doing this. But his crucial interception on the Colts' second-to-last drive (on a pass into the end zone intended for Reggie Wayne) was absolutely influenced by RGMike McGlynn getting steamrolled by Randy Starks. Indy's tackles played well in Week 2 and certainly have the pedigree, but it's the line's interior that continues to be a huge question mark.
So on the one hand, the presence of a true power back with some breakaway ability should balance out a defense's desire to pin its ears back and send the cavalry up the middle. Of course, on the other hand, a shaky interior line doesn't usually bode well for a fantasy RB. The idea that Richardson's value suddenly skyrockets as a result of this trade is, I think, the domain of the overly excitable. The fact is, we were already ranking Richardson as a borderline top-10 RB in Cleveland, but that was under the assumption that offensive coordinator Norv Turner was going to use him in a proper manner, not have him split time with Ogbonnaya.
The best fantasy owners can hope for here, I think, is that T-Rich goes back to being a feature back, one who's actually on the field most of the time when there's a chance for a short TD. I don't think this unleashes Richardson into becoming a 1,500-yard back. But I think it definitely puts the double-digit TDs he scored last season (and very much appearednot to be headed for after two games in Cleveland) back into play. So in my mind, Richardson doesn't become a top-five fantasy RB. He just stays where he should've been, had he been used properly in Cleveland.
3. Panic on Robert Griffin III begins In 3...2...1... : It started well for Bobby Three Sticks Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. On his first snap, he got no pressure, took his time, and found Leonard Hankerson over the middle for a 14-yard gain. But as early as his second throw, the cracks began to show. On a third-and-4 around midfield, RG III did get pressure, and he did his new thing: He didn't step into his throw, and it sailed ludicrously on him. When he's on time, when he's in rhythm, Griffin doesn't look any different to me this season than he did last. He executed a second-quarter play-action fake and instantly zipped a pass to Pierre Garcon for an 18-yard gain, on time, no muss. But when there were bodies around him, we saw too many batted balls, too many across-the-body downfield wings, too many stressed-out mechanics.
I never want to be the guy who tries to get inside an athlete's head, call him "scared," call him "gun-shy," question his competitiveness. And I won't do that here. All I can report is what I see, and I see a player who's not fully committed to using his plant leg on every play. When defenders aren't around him, he looks relaxed, but in traffic it seems that his first motion after throwing a pass is to jump backward. I don't think this is intentional, or represents some kind of strike against his character. But it's there.
The good news, however, is that I don't see any diminution of Griffin's athletic talents. He's still slippery in and around the pocket, and is still frustratingly elusive when he has to be. He's still fast. He still confused the Packers' D later in the game, when the Redskins started to employ some triple-option concepts (out of which RG III mostly threw). This is not a completely lost cause, nor would I blame Griffin for his team's horrid start. That falls much more on a defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone.
However, RG III's fantasy status depends largely on his ability to run. Regular readers of this column are probably tired of reading this, but Griffin wasn't an elite fantasy thrower last season. I'll trod out this chart one more time to illustrate the point:
[h=3]Notable QBs, 2012 Scoring Breakdown[/h]

	Fantasy Pts	Pts from Rushing	Pct.
Colin Kaepernick	164	66	40.2%
Robert Griffin III	304	116	38.2%
Cam Newton	309	115	37.2%
Russell Wilson	259	65	25.1%
Michael Vick	140	29	20.7%
Aaron Rodgers	329	33	10.0%
Tom Brady	329	25	7.6%
Drew Brees	337	7	2.1%
Peyton Manning	304	0	0.0%

You may have the impression that Griffin was a great deep-ball thrower last year, but that's all it is: an impression. He tied Christian Ponder for 27th in pass attempts that traveled 20-plus yards in the air. (To be fair, he tossed for seven TD passes on those 35 attempts, which is good, but he didn't do it often.) The reason RG III was a fantasy stud last season involved his legs, and so far this year, the team hasn't called any designed runs for him. I think that will change, and maybe soon. I'm not giving up on him as a fantasy asset. I rated him No. 12 among QBs this week, but something must change for him to live up to his billing.
4. Is Terrelle Pryor rescuing Darren McFadden? I studied the Oakland Raiders film in great detail this week, to get a sense of what Pryor is really doing for that offense. I think there's a big risk in getting too excited about some kind of Raiders resurgence under Pryor, because they've faced the Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars, neither of whom boasts a great defense. But any objective soul would have to admit that the Pryor/McFadden dynamic is putting pressure on opposing defenses that wouldn't be there without the threat of a running QB.
Juxtapose two plays: Pryor's second-quarter 27-yard run and DMC's third-quarter 30-yard scamper. On the former, defensive end Jason Babin dramatically overcommits to the run, making a classic mistake defending the read-option. Pryor sees Babin dive inside, keeps the ball, runs to the space Babin vacated, and is off. On the latter, the Jags have good contain on Pryor, with an outside linebacker in their 3-4 play-call performing a scrape exchange with the defensive end. But middle linebacker Geno Hayes (not known for being a strong run defender) doesn't trust the contain, sees the read-option, and takes a fateful step to the outside, thinking he needs to help get Pryor. Pryor takes advantage of the tongue-lashing the Jags' D no doubt received for making a mistake on Pryor's big second-quarter run, hands it to DMC, and watches him plow through an open hole for a long run. This dynamic is a good example of why the read-option isn't really a "gimmick." It's meant to stress the defense.
And in the Raiders' case, it's probably entirely necessary, because when they line up man-on-man and just try to straightforward beat you, they haven't succeeded. McFadden has 36 carries this season. Of those, eight have been stuffed for zero or fewer yards, and 21 have gained two yards or fewer. In each case, that "stuff percentage" puts him among the five worst in the league among RBs who have had at least 20 carries. If watching film has taught me anything about RBs, it's that stuffs rarely have tons to do with the rusher. Sure, sometimes a RB has poor instincts and runs himself into tackles, but when a guy is met in his own backfield? That's the line.
My point is that I think DMC is a good bet to make a couple of pretty nice gains per week as a result of the Raiders' commitment to misdirection and forcing defensive mistakes. But they'd better get those big plays, because their lunch-pail plays don't tend to yield much. Listen, coming off a 185 total-yard effort where chunk plays were common, I'd have a hard time sitting McFadden even in a Monday night tilt against the powerful Broncos. I think Pryor has brought hope to Oakland that I never would've expected. That said, given DMC's tortured injury history and his offense's limitations, would I consider him a decent sell-high candidate? I sure would.
Four In Brief:
5. Knowshon Moreno is a fantasy starter you can trade: I don't look at Moreno's tape and see a total dud of a running back. He's not all that fast, he's not all that big (nor is he all that small), he's not all that elusive ... but he's not a dud. His second TD run against theNew York Giants last week was a nice one, and there was a strong third-quarter 7-yard scamper where I saw him put his foot in the ground and make a linebacker miss, something he doesn't do very often. Furthermore, he was already his team's best pass-protecting RB and has taken advantage of Montee Ball's horrendous beginning to become the unquestioned current Broncos top back. He's No. 17 on my RB list this week, and most of his fantasy owners are going to start him Monday night, but I can absolutely see trading him.
I don't think we've seen the last of Ball as a thumper. He was famous for almost neverfumbling at Wisconsin despite his huge workload, yet bobbled away a red-zone touch thatPeyton Manning magnanimously gave him in Week 2. The kid just isn't ready (much to my surprise). But I don't think he'll stay "unready" all year. Given Moreno's long (and I meanlong) injury history, my guess is Ball still will get a chance to be a fantasy factor later in the season. This doesn't absolve me of a bad call about his Week 1 readiness, but it does lead me to the conclusion that if someone wanted to overpay me for Moreno, I'd consider it. For as long as he's healthy and on my roster, however, I'm probably starting him.

6. Do the St. Louis Rams need to re-think their backfield? Through two weeks, Daryl Richardson has 98 yards on 30 carries, and that's not good. But stats aren't really my currency; I'm more concerned with how he looks. Against the Atlanta Falcons last week, Richardson didn't provoke great love from his fantasy owners: 80 total yards and no TDs. There's concern brewing, no doubt, that as Isaiah Pead gets up to speed, the Rams may try him as a real alternative in the backfield. Pead had three touches Sunday, but actually (vexingly) was on the field quite a bit as the Rams played catch-up. But here's the thing: While I don't rule out the possibility of St. Louis trying to get a spark by changing things up, the tape tells me that it isn't really necessary. While he's undersized at 195 pounds, D-Rich does a pretty solid job on all kinds of runs. This isn't Jacquizz Rodgers (who's supposedly about the same weight as Richardson, but is several inches shorter) bouncing backward off defensive players. I see strong vision and heads-up running and near-elite receiving talent.

I grant you that an ideal situation would probably see the Rams employ a thundering first- and second-down back, with Richardson used more as a third-down guy. But I don't think that "other RB" is on the roster right now. Could Pead be that guy? Truthfully, he hasn't put down enough NFL game tape to answer that question one way or another, but that in itself is a condemnation. Richardson and Pead are similar players, I suppose, but there's a reason the Rams have clearly chosen D-Rich to this point: He's a smarter, better player. If I've been rolling with him as a fantasy flex -- especially in a PPR league -- I'm not losing faith just yet. Despite his numbers, to me he's been a fairly pleasant surprise.

7. Stay at (T.Y.) Hilton: I'm hoping that the ridiculous notion that Darrius Heyward-Bey is somehow worthy of the No. 2 receiving job in Indy fell by the wayside in Week 2, after he suffered a shoulder injury and Hilton went off. Actually, that notion seemed foolish as early as the Colts' first possession, when out of a three-WR set, DHB got targeted on a deep "in" route, let the ball carom off his breadbasket, and Hilton swooped in and made the ricochet catch. Life doesn't usually present such perfect metaphors. Hilton has some DeSean Jackson in his game, and the Colts know it: They put him in a bunch formation and threw him a short pass with two blocking WRs in front of him, they threw him crossing routes (which hasn't regularly been the norm with him), and of course they gave him deep shots, including one in the second quarter where he showed terrific ball skills for such a little guy, outmuscling (and outsmarting) Brent Grimes for a huge catch.

Heyward-Bey supposedly is going to be OK for Week 3, but the Colts would be crazy to continue playing him in two-wideout sets. Hilton has run only 19 of his 48 routes so far this year from the slot, which is consistent with his usage last season; Reggie Wayne is actually more commonly the slot wideout. Does Hilton occasionally struggle getting off the line against press coverage? Maybe. But the rewards are obvious. Hilton is a "buy" right now in fantasy leagues.

8. The Philadelphia Eagles' offense hits a speed bump: Thursday night wasn't a good look for Chip Kelly and Michael Vick. But don't jump to conclusions about Kelly's tempo or schemes. The problems, as is often the case when it comes to Vick, were turnovers and sacks. Vick personally accounted for two interceptions and a fumble, and took five sacks. He had a couple of long runs (winding up with 95 yards on the ground) to salvage his fantasy night, but 13-of-30 passing looked just as bad as it sounds. And that's to say nothing of the fact that he took numerous blows and looked questionable to stay in the game late, had his last-gasp drop of the football not been ruled a fumble. LeSean McCoy overcame a scary-looking ankle injury to produce another wonderful effort, and DeSean Jackson at least made a late catch that got him up to 62 yards.

But there are two issues here. One: Vick. If you don't know his deal by now, you aren't great at learnin' stuff. Two: When you pair a high-tempo offense with a defense that -- even when it's not allowing a ton of yards -- can't get off the field, you're asking to be dominated in time of possession. That doesn't automatically mean you're going to lose, but it makes every offensive trip that much more important. Listen, even in a horrendous effort, Vick scored 15 fantasy points. We're not in panic mode with him yet. At least until he gets injured. Which is definitely, definitely coming.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2013

[h=1]A TRUM for Trent Richardson[/h]By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Back in the day, way back when they still used phrases like back in the day, I wrote a blog. It was an every-night occurrence, the last thing I wrote before I went to bed, and often very late at night. I wrote it for my old TalentedMrRoto.com website and it was called "the TRUM." TRUM stood for "Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless Information and Musings" and its loose nature was basically an excuse for me to do a late-night brain dump, a smattering of random ideas that were not in any order beyond what came into my mind. I wrote it in one sitting, first draft as is, the lack of formality and structure excused by both the premise of the piece and the fact that I wrote it late at night.
It was only my favorite thing to write ever.
For a variety of reasons, I stopped doing it when I came to ESPN, but I have occasionally brought it back, almost always when I write baseball. I wasn't planning on doing one today, either, but then Trent Richardson went and screwed everything up. Well, that's not true. It would appear Jim Irsay screwed everything up. Or the Colts. Or the Browns. I don't know. Someone is to blame for this mess and for once it's not me. The point, and I'm almost positive there is one, is that I just got off the "Olbermann" show, it is now very late at night as I sit down to write this open, and I have to tape a baseball podcast in a handful of hours, so you know what? Call me the Justin Timberlake of fantasy, I'm bringing TRUM back. You heard me. Clearly, even though we killed off the TRUM, some staples, such as bad jokes and awkward transitions, still remain.

"WHAT WHAT WHAT?!?"
Like Sheila Broflovski on South Park, that was my reaction when I first saw the tweet from Adam Schefter. I quickly clicked on Adam's profile to make sure it was, in fact, him who tweeted it and not some parody account, because that's what I was sure it was. No way the Browns were trading Richardson, their 2012 first-round draft pick, two weeks into the season ... were they? Yep. Adam's profile had the tweet, the blue check mark, it was from him all right. "WHAT WHAT WHAT??!!?"
But now I've had time to gather my thoughts. And for Richardson, this helps. The Colts want to go power run game, and thanks toAndrew Luck and the passing offense, T-Rich will have more room to run, he'll have more scoring opportunities, the Colts will have more sustained drives. Indy is tied for 17th in rush attempts so far this year, the Browns are tied for 30th. If Richardson was a top-10 back before, he's now top six or seven. Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles,Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin and Arian Foster; those are the only running backs I would want ahead of Richardson now, and Foster is a borderline call.
Luck, Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener; this helps them all a little bit as well. More balanced offense, defenses having to respect the run, it's an upgrade for Indy. Luck was already docked a bit in preseason (by me at least) for a more conservative offense, which is happening, but he's making up for it with his rushing, oddly: In two games, he has totaled 76 yards and a touchdown on the ground, despite a lack of designed runs. By virtue of an improved offense (and Dwayne Allen being out for the year), Fleener is now a low-end TE1/high-end TE2. And he's available in a ton of leagues. For now.
So all Colts are up except, of course, Ahmad Bradshaw. Pity the poor owner who had Bradshaw. Or worse, just dealt for him after the Vick Ballard news. You know those guys are out there. Bradshaw is usable this weekend as a flex if you need a running back, but then, he's a backup and handcuff to Richardson. That's it. No issue dropping him in a 10-team standard league.
Speaking of this weekend, I ranked Trent Richardson at 40 this week. The other three rankers have him as a top-20 play. One of us is going to look really stupid. Maybe it'll be me. Won't be the first time. But my editor called me when he saw the ranks, asking if it was a mistake. Here's what I wrote back: "Nope. How much do you think he plays on 3 days with no knowledge of blocking, plays, etc? On road at SF?" That's the same question you need to answer if you own Richardson and have other good options. How much risk can you take? One thing's for sure, I'm not using him in Gridiron Challenge or Player Eliminator this week.
On the Browns, it's fantasy zombie time. Willis McGahee, yes, Willis McGahee is coming back. If he passes a physical, they're going to sign him. My guess is Chris Ogbonnaya gets the majority of carries this weekend, but he's a fullback and nothing exciting. As soon as the news broke, I tweeted out "Just picked up Willis McGahee and Bobby Rainey in my 16-team league." I also made the same move in a 14-team league I'm in. I ignored them both in 10-team leagues.
McGahee is the veteran and, interesting tidbit, played for Browns coach Rob Chudzinski when Chud was the offensive coordinator at the University of Miami. So there's some familiarity there, and maybe it's among the reasons they'll sign him. Once he gets up to speed and in football shape, he'll probably be the guy you want. Rainey is interesting to me. On the Ravens in the preseason, he showed a little something (OK, mostly the fourth game, but still) scoring two touchdowns and having 47 total yards. The Ravens ended up cutting him and Cleveland scooped him up. He has been part of the kickoff return game, and my feeling is the Browns are going nowhere this year so at some point they'll see what they have in Rainey. They already know what Ogbonnaya is, and the answer is not much. I expect McGahee to be flex worthy or a low-end RB2 in some leagues, but I wouldn't go nuts trying to get one of them off waivers unless you're in a deep league where any running back with a pulse is rostered. Speaking of running backs with a pulse and not much else going for them, time to release Donald Brown, if you grabbed him and were hoping.
Figure you'll see a lot of throwing in Cleveland as they trail in every game, so while I'm not trying to trade for Jordan Cameron or Josh Gordon, I'm not freaking out if I have them. Finally, see below, but the Vikings make a good plug-and-play defense this week against Brian Hoyer and whatever running game the Browns scrounge up.

More football thoughts, now that we're off and running. ...The Ryan Cladyinjury is obviously not great for the Denver offensive line, but ultimately what it tells me is that Knowshon Moreno becomes more entrenched as the starter there. They are taking nochances with pass protection now. Top-20 running back with top-12 or so upside the rest of the way. ... I am sticking by or buying low on Eddie Lacy,Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson (you saw where I ranked him among running backs the rest of the season) and David Wilson and anything less than first-round value is a steal forAlfred Morris and Arian Foster if their owners are underwhelmed so far. And while I'm not a huge Frank Gore fan, he's better than he has shown. ... I'm still a believer in Maurice Jones-Drew, but it's getting harder and harder to hang tough. ... Randy Bullock is a kicker who is owned in 92 percent of leagues. This needs to change. He missed three field goals last game and is on a super-short leash. And by super-short leash, I mean I already dropped him in the leagues where I had him. … One of these days, either Kenbrell Thompkins or Aaron Dobson is going to learn how to catch, and then, watch out. I'm hanging on wherever I have the bench to do so.
Some unintended fallout from the Richardson trade? I'm annoyed at Howie Schwab. Howie, of course, is my former colleague here at ESPN and was the star of "Stump the Schwab." He was also a co-analyst on a show that I also was on in 2007 called "Fantasy Insider." I've known him ever since I came to ESPN and he is as kind a man as you'll ever meet, and I follow him on Twitter. So ... Wednesday night is the finale of "Big Brother," a show that is a huge guilty pleasure for my wife and me to watch together. We love it (and love to hate some of the people on it. Most … despicable … cast … ever!). I actually wanted to go home and watch it and then come back to work for my 11:45 p.m. segment on the Olbermann show, but then the Richardson news broke and then I'm updating ranks and doing "SportsCenter" and digital video and whatever, the evening is shot. So I'm on Twitter scanning for news and Howie suddenly tweets, at 11 p.m. ET, "Congrats to xxx on winning Big Brother!"
I'm not putting the name there because I am sure there are people who have DVR'd it or whatever and don't know who won yet. And Howie blows the answer on Twitter! Forget me; this is before anyone on the West Coast has even gotten a chance to see it! I tweeted at him asking why he would do that, he apologized and said he didn't even think about the West Coast. So now I'm super annoyed. I know who won (my wife and I were going to watch the finale this weekend) and I can't even be properly annoyed at Howie because it's not as if it's some jerk who did it, it's Howie, who, as I said, is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet. You can't be mad at Howie. I want to be mad at someone. Maybe it's at Jim Irsay. Or Trent Richardson. Or the Colts. Or the Browns. I don't know. I'm here way too late and it's their fault. It's someone's fault.
Rambling on, this past weekend, "Sunday NFL Countdown" did a segment where they talked to the guys in the "Tattoo League" that is featured in my book "Fantasy Life." It's terrific - you must watch it. Then you'll know that no matter how hard-core you think your league is, these guys are more hard-core.
I really want "Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D." to be good.
Got sent this stat by the former SWAN, Zach Jones:
15-Point Fantasy Games
Through 2 Weeks

	2012	\|	2013
WRs	16		29
RBs	22		14
TEs	3		8

>> ESPN.com standard scoring
Until we see more stability from running backs (or you are loaded at the position), more often than not, your flex is coming from a wide receiver these days. Food for thought as you settle into the running back panic and scarcity that I keep seeing everywhere. Depth is nice (and will be an issue soon with bye weeks coming in Week 4), but the key is two good running backs, not three. ... I've gotten a lot of panic-stricken emails from fantasy owners who are 0-2 and worried about what to do with failing stars. Keep in mind, through the first two weeks of the 2012 season, Eli Manning was the fourth-highest scoring QB in fantasy (he finished 15th), Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady had the same number of points, Kevin Ogletree had more points than Roddy White, Calvin Johnson had the same number of points as Jeremy Kerley, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a two-point advantage over Doug Martin. It's a long season. Calm down. ... It's not like you have a to get a tattoo if you lose. Or someone ruined the "Big Brother" finale for you.
Your usual caveats. This is not a start/sit column, it's a "guy I like to exceed or fall short of normal expectations" column. Use my player rankings if you'd like my opinion on whom I would start or bench. Big bear hug to Zach Rodgers of ESPN Stats & Information for his help, and away we go.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 3[/h]
Matthew Stafford, Lions: I would say that it has been a struggle for my Washington Professional Football Franchise, except it would mean that they are a professional-caliber franchise. Their defense hasn't looked like it the first two weeks and there aren't two players in D.C. who can guard Calvin Johnson. HavingJoique Bell means that even if Reggie Bush can't go, Stafford still has his outlet man. The guy with the best wideout in football, whose game plan usually involves throwing it 40 times a game, is facing the defense that has given up the highest completion percentage and the most yards per attempt in the league so far? Just because it's obvious doesn't make it wrong. Top-four play this week.
Robert Griffin III, Washington: So, I've been doing the "Love/Hate" column for 13 years now. They run anywhere between 3,500 words and 5,000 words. And usually about an eight-to-10K piece in the preseason. And this next sentence is the most depressing one I have ever written: I like RG III this week in a "Carson Palmer junk time" kind of way. That's what he has become. Zero offensive points in the first two halves of their games, yet RG III is currently in a five-way tie for the seventh-most points in fantasy (41). Against the Lions, I see more of the same. It won't be pretty, but by the end of the game, the points will be there.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks: It's Jacksonville. If not now, when? If not him, whom? If not last week, why not do this joke a second time?
Eli Manning, Giants: Well, they can't run the ball, so Eli is throwing. When he throws, he throws deep. Only Slingin' Joe Flacco has more pass attempts 15 yards downfield than Eli. The Panthers secondary is really banged up and they weren't all that to begin with, allowing opposing QBs to complete 72 percent of passes (hint -- that's a lot, especially because one of those QBs is a rookie). Eli gets out of the "Eli face zone" and is a low-end QB1 this week.
If you're desperate: Did you know that I know that only one QB has attempted more passes than Sam Bradford, and that he actually has thrown the most red zone pass attempts this season? Only one team has given up more red zone scores than Dallas so far. ... Andy Dalton missed everything in sight last Monday night, but in a shootout with Green Bay, there will points to be had. … If you can't have the "new Carson Palmer" in RG III, why not settle for the original model? Assuming Larry Fitzgerald plays, and despite the fact that I like what Rob Ryan has done with the Saints defense, Palmer should still put up solid double-digit points on the turf in New Orleans as the Cardinals play from behind.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 3[/h]Andrew Luck, Colts: Yes, he has a new running back. But that's not helping this week as T-Rich needs to learn the playbook, his blocking assignments, and what to do when an angry 49ers linebacker or defensive end is coming right at you. Which is what the Colts face this week, on the road. Not a top-10 play this week.
Josh Freeman, Buccaneers: In case you were thinking this might be a shootout with the Patriots. Freeman has missed on an NFL-high 54.7 percent of his throws this season. The New England defense has put opposing quarterbacks under duress on 30.6 percent of pass attempts, fourth highest in the league. I didn't even rank Freeman this week. Wouldn't start him in a two-QB league if I didn't have to.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: On last week's "Fantasy Football Now" (Sundays at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2 and WatchESPN), Tim Hasselbeck said he was starting Terrelle Pryor over Big Ben. I agreed with the call. Should tell you everything you need to know, and it doesn't get easier for the Steelers against Chicago.
For the second week in a row, not many great names to put in "hate." I'll say it again, quarterback is deep this year!
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 3[/h]Frank Gore, 49ers: I'm not a huge fan of Gore these days, but he's better than this. And against the Colts this week, he proves it. Since 2012, Gore has scored single-digit fantasy points in six weeks. The following week, Gore has averaged 15.2 fantasy points. The Colts are tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed and fourth-most rushing yards. In their defense, they've faced noted offensive powerhouses Oakland and Miami, so, you know. …
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: As rambled about above, the Ryan Clady injury means Moreno is even more entrenched in his starting RB role thanks to the pass protection he provides. Off a two-touchdown game, he keeps the good times rolling against Oakland, which should become their new slogan. Instead of "Commitment to Excellence" or "Just Win, Baby," I'm pitching "Keeps the good times rolling!"
Chris Johnson, Titans: So it looks like the Titans aren't ... terrible. Johnson has 11 red zone rushes this season, four more than anyone else in the league. Meanwhile, when fantasy zombies Philip Rivers and Eddie Royal aren't hooking up, the Chargers defense has allowed 333 yards to opposing running backs and are giving up 4.7 yards per rush in the red zone, third highest in the NFL.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: They might run a little more with Fitz banged up and trying to slow down the Saints, and you know what? He has been very not-terrible this year, averaging more than 4 yards per carry, and he got both of Arizona's goal-line carries last week. The Saints, meanwhile have allowed 5.3 yards per carry so far this season, third most in the NFL.
If you're desperate: Reggie Bush is either not going to play, or be limited this week, which means Joique Bell becomes fairly useful in a high-scoring game. … Of the Jets' 47 run plays this season, 46 have been between the tackles, and Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards between the tackles, so Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell have flex appeal this week. ... Total gut call, but I bet Montee Ball gets a touchdown this week as Denver gets up big on Oakland and gets him some reps. ... The same junk-time logic applies to Robert Turbin, who will get some run against the Jags, who give up 5.7 yards per carry, most in the NFL.
[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 3[/h]Trent Richardson, Colts: As mused about above.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: I still believe, I do... but it's wavering, and I'm not starting any Jaguar at Seattle. Not in a 16-teamer, not while riding in an ocean steamer, not while eating green eggs and ham. I do not like MJD this week, Sam I Am.
Darren McFadden, Raiders: Fine, he has been better than expected, and by that, I mean he's still upright and not terrible. But the Broncos have allowed only 81 rushing yards through two games, fewest in the league. If they can stop Ray Rice and David Wilson, er ... fine, if they can stop Ray Rice, they can stop the likes of DMC.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys: Pick a number, any number. Like Murray's 3.5 yards per carry, 27th in the league. Which is worse than his 4.8 yards per carry of the past two seasons. Or how about 2.9, as in, the Rams have allowed only 2.9 yards per carry this season, seventh fewest in the league. Or 12, as in, last game, he got only 12 carries. Or zero, as in, he has yet to score a touchdown this year. My guess is you don't have better options this week, so you're probably starting him, but I don't see him as the top-15 running back that two of my fellow rankers do, nor would I use him in Gridiron Challenge.
James Starks, Packers: Running out the clock with a big lead against the Washington Professional Football Team is one thing, doing it against the Bengals (allowing just 63 rushing yards a game) is another. He's not a top-20 running back this week.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 3[/h]Victor Cruz, Giants: See Manning, Eli.
Anquan Boldin, 49ers: You either believe he is closer to Week 1 Boldin, a guy they are going to force feed the ball to and line up all over the place, or you believe in last week, where he was completely shut out. Indy ain't Seattle. I'm a Week 1 guy.
Steve Johnson, Bills: Why so serious? He caught this game winner. The Jets do have a good run defense, so even though C.J. Spiller will get his, Buffalo will need to throw to move the ball. Johnson already has two red zone touchdowns through two weeks, as many as he had in all of 2012. So off to a hot start and the matchup is right. Three scores in six games against the Jets in his career while averaging over 70 yards a game, he's a solid third wide receiver or flex this week.
T.Y Hilton, Colts: They use all of Hilton, Wayne and Fleener in the slot and I've written a lot in the past about San Francisco's struggle with the slot receiver. I expect Hilton to play even more snaps this week and for San Fran to concentrate on stopping Wayne, so I have Hilton as a medium risk/reward WR3 this week.
Stephen Hill, Jets: They've got to throw it to someone in New York, and the guy they're choosing these days is Hill. Most targets and yards on the Jets, he's raw but has chemistry with Geno Smith and is getting the ball thrown his direction a lot. Sometimes, that's all you need. Against the Bills, it will be, in a flex sort of way.
If you're desperate: I assume Andre Johnson plays, but if he doesn't, I'm all about theDeAndre Hopkins. He's a full-grown man, son. Full grown. ... I also like the guy on the other side of the field, Marlon Brown. ... If Kendall Wright ends up playing this weekend, it's worth noting that since 2012, when Jake Locker is under center, Wright leads the Titans in targets, yards after the catch and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns. ... You already know the I think Washington-Detroit is a high-scoring game, so it's worth noting that Nate Burleson has seen almost as many targets as Calvin Johnson (14 to Johnson's 16) and that no receiver with at least 10 targets has a higher catch rate than Burleson. ...You saw the note about Eli (and Cruz) and the deep balls and the banged-up Panthers secondary, so it's worth mentioning that Rueben Randle actually has been targeted downfield this year more than Hakeem Nicks. … Finally, it would have to be a deep league to start him this week, but I strongly suggest finding a way to add Cordarrelle Patterson, who will make a difference this year and sooner rather than later.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 3[/h]Reggie Wayne, Colts: Believe it or not, he's actually second on the Colts in targets (to T.Y. Hilton) and I believe we'll see more of Hilton in the slot than Wayne. Meanwhile, back at Wayne Manor, nine of his 13 receptions have been on throws 10 yards or fewer downfield. The 49ers have allowed the fewest number of receptions 10 yards or fewer this season. Not a top-20 play for me this week.
Greg Jennings, Vikings: Insert wideout facing Joe Haden here.
Cecil Shorts, Jaguars: He is truth, justice, the American Way, and benched against Seattle.
Josh Gordon, Browns: No run game, Brian Hoyer at quarterback and, since 2012, the Vikings are tied for ninth-fewest receptions allowed thrown at least 25 yards downfield, and seventh-fewest yards allowed on such throws. Love Gordon this year but this probably isn't his game.

[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 3[/h]
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: I think he plays. And if he plays for the Patriots, he plays for you.
Antonio Gates, Chargers: Since 2012, no team has allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than theTennessee Titans. Philip Rivers is going to pass in this game and Gates will be heavily involved.
Jordan Cameron, Browns: It's not as though they're going to run it anymore. I expect Cleveland to have to throw a lot and, given the volume and the matchup, I'm not worried about Cameron. The Vikings have already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the most in the league.
Owen Daniels, Texans: Another nice matchup for a tight end who is getting used a lot.Matt Schaub has targeted his tight ends seven times in the red zone this season, leading to five touchdowns, both of which lead the league. Meanwhile, quoth the research department, the Ravens have allowed 205 yards (third most in the league) and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the first two games. With the potential of Andre Johnson missing this game, expect Schaub to look for Daniels when he decides to pass.
Martellus Bennett, Bears: No tight end has been targeted more in the red zone this year than Bennett. Pittsburgh has struggled so far against the tight end (seventh-most tight end yards allowed this year), so expect a top-10 performance here.
If you're desperate: Coby Fleener is the only game in town on a team that will struggle to run against the Niners. ... Chargers have given up three touchdowns to opposing tight ends in two games and frankly, it would be four if James Casey had caught the ball cleanly at the goal line. They've allowed the fourth-most points so far and Delanie Walker did score last week. … I had Charles Clay in this section last week and that seemed to work out, so I'm back again. Tannehill continues to look for him underneath as Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline stretch the field.
[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 3:[/h]Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Well, he scored last week. I was wrong there. But just three receptions. I can't trust a guy who is so touchdown dependent as a regular top-10 play.
Brandon Myers, Giants: Banged up a bit himself, and only three teams in the NFL allow fewer fantasy points per game than the Carolina Panthers. Of course, they've faced Zach Miller and Scott Chandler, so not exactly tough to do, but still, I expect the Giants to try to get their run game going and take shots deep, making Myers a not-top-10 play this week.
Brent Celek, Eagles: Two receptions (on four targets) in two games; he's just not a consistent part of the offense. Don't want to brag, but I figured that one out all by myself.
Fred Davis, Washington: Not that you were really starting Davis anyway, but I put him in here just to mention that I really like Jordan Reed, their rookie tight end, and so do they. Athletic, nice pass-catcher, it will be a while before he contributes with any consistency, but good name for deeper dynasty leagues.

[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 3[/h]Denver Broncos D/ST: It's Oakland. Come on. This ain't rocket science.
Minnesota Vikings D/ST: Hello, Brian Hoyer. And no Trent Richardson. And an offensive line that is tied for the league lead in sacks allowed.
If you're desperate: The Buffalo Bills defense is averaging almost 10 points a game and now gets to face Geno Smith and the Jets. ... TheNew Orleans Saints have put together solid games back-to-back and will be at home against the less-than-mobile Carson Palmer, who might be short Larry Fitzgerald. ...The Tennessee Titans kind of have a sneakily solid defense, with 10 scores and 22 interceptions in the past 18 games, and when you're playing against Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews, turnovers are always in play.
[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 3[/h]Cleveland Browns D/ST: Normally I like this defense a lot, especially against Christian Ponder, but I'm worried they will be worn out after a lot of three and outs from what passes for the offense they are rolling out there.

Arizona Cardinals D/ST: Has yet to score double-digit points and, on the road, on the turf, against Drew Brees, there's pretty good odds it's gonna stay that way.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2013

[h=3]Key fantasy injuries for Week 3[/h][h=5]Stephania Bell[/h]
The list of injured players heading into Week 3 just might exceed the list of healthy ones. OK, maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it’s not far off. Despite the number of players listed on the injury report as of Friday, many of them are expected to take the field. There are a few who will sit and some who have that all-time favorite designation of game-time decision. Where do your players stand? Here’s what we know as of Saturday morning:

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, ribs (P): Last week, Romo needed a pain-relieving injection before playing. He might require the same pregame treatment this week. Rib injuries are nothing to sneeze at, and Romo has certainly had his share of them. Still, he has practiced fully every day and will be out there Sunday when the Cowboys host the Rams.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers, foot (P): The sight of Kaepernick on the injury report for the first time in his career with a foot injury is obviously worrisome for 49ers fans and fantasy owners given how much of a threat he can be with his legs. The sentiment in San Francisco, however, is that this is not anything serious, especially since he practiced fully each day. After last Sunday night’s outing, there is no doubt that Kaepernick is eager to hit the reset button.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, right shoulder (P): Tannehill’s throwing shoulder took a hit in last week’s game, and he was limited in practice Wednesday. Thursday is an off day for the Dolphins, but if they would have practiced, Tannehill would have been limited, which is why he is listed that way on Thursday’s practice report. He did put in a full practice Friday and will start Sunday when the Dolphins host the Falcons.

Running backs

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens, hip flexor (D): The Baltimore Sun reports Bernard Pierce will get his first NFL start Sunday, with Rice’s injury considered to be a two-week injury. Rice did not practice all week after straining his hip flexor late in last Sunday’s game, but coach John Harbaugh said earlier in the week that it wouldn’t necessarily prevent him from playing. The Ravens were hinting at calling Rice a game-time decision, but the odds of him playing never appeared to be in his favor, especially given the doubtful tag.

Players labeled as doubtful can play Sunday, should their status improve dramatically, but the intent of the designation is to reflect the likelihood that they will sit out. If that was where the team viewed Rice’s recovery Friday, was it really realistic to think he could play Sunday? Perhaps. Sometimes a 48-hour window can help significantly in terms of how a player’s body feels. But the more important question would be whether Rice could play effectively and whether he could last four quarters. There is no definitive way of knowing, but as outlined Tuesday, this type of injury, even if not severe, can pose challenges for a running back. It appears the Ravens made the smart choice in allowing Rice another week to rest.

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers, concussion (Q): Lacy suffered a concussion on the first play of last Sunday’s game, and his status for Week 3 has been in question since. He has made progress throughout the week, according to coach Mike McCarthy, but has not practiced at all.

He would need to demonstrate no return symptoms after high-level physical activity (for most teams that includes some type of contact test) and be cleared by an independent neurological consultant in order to return. It seems unlikely he will take the field; James Starks has already been announced as the starter.

Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions, knee (Q): After explosive performances in Week 1 and the first half of Week 2, one of the biggest questions heading into Sunday is whether Bush will play and how he will perform if he does. Bush did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but sounded hopeful that he would be able to take the field Sunday.

On Friday, he appeared a step closer to doing so as he participated in practice on a limited basis. Bush was sporting a knee sleeve and appeared to be moving well, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Bush’s questionable status could result in a game-time decision, but even if he does suit up, his productivity and the work split between him and Joique Bellwill be difficult to predict.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars, ankle (Q): After resting Wednesday and Thursday, Jones-Drew returned to limited practice Friday. The swelling in his ankle subsided enough to allow him to test cutting on that side. Jones-Drew would like to play but acknowledges the Jaguars would like him to be close to 100 percent.

His status for Sunday’s game in Seattle is still undetermined, although Jones-Drew’s comments indicate he will attempt to go, if able. This scenario has all the elements a fantasy owner fears: late game, game-time decision, player not likely to be 100 percent healthy. Oh, and the Jaguars are playing in Seattle.

Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona Cardinals, toe (Q): Mendenhall again comes into this week as questionable, but he hopes to take the field in the Superdome on Sunday when the Cardinals face the Saints. He sat out Wednesday and Thursday but returned to practice Friday for a limited workout. According to ESPN.com’s Josh Weinfuss, coach Bruce Arians described Mendenhall’s injury as something “damn close” to turf toe. A painful toe could make it challenging to push off or plant and pivot off that foot. Still, his presence at Friday’s practice makes it more likely he could be available.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals, hamstring (P): After a surprising appearance on the Thursday injury report, Bernard alleviated fantasy owners’ concerns by putting in a full practice Friday. Coach Marvin Lewis says Bernard was removed early from practice as a precaution and he expects him to play this week. The probable tag reflects the team’s confidence that Bernard will be ready for Sunday.

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers, foot (Q): Bell had not practiced with the team since suffering a foot sprain in the preseason until Wednesday. After a limited practice, Bell surprisingly turned in a full practice Thursday, a clear sign that his foot responded positively to the increased work. He followed it up with another full practice Friday. While Bell was quick to say that he was still recovering and did not want to rush his return, there is a chance he could see some game action Sunday night. Felix Jones is still expected to get the start, and Bell would likely see only limited action.

Wide receivers

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans, concussion (P): Johnson was on track with his progression throughout the week, increasing his activity daily. He then got final clearance to return from an independent neurological consultant, and coach Gary Kubiak declared him ready to go Friday. Johnson should be able to play without limitation when the Texans face the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday.

Roddy White, ankle, and Julio Jones, knee, Atlanta Falcons (Q): White has returned to practice, although he remains limited. There is little doubt that White will take the field when it’s game time; the uncertainty surrounds just how well he can move on his ailing ankle.

For his part, Jones never appeared to be limited by his knee in last week’s game. Perhaps his controlled reps in practice were as much about preserving him for Sunday as anything else. Expect both receivers to take the field in Miami.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, hamstring (Q):Fitzgerald has made it clear throughout the week that he expects to play. No one has doubted his work ethic or competitive desire, but many have questioned whether his left hamstring will cooperate. It appears we will all learn the answer Sunday. According to ESPN.com’s Josh Weinfuss, Fitzgerald is expected to play despite the questionable tag, and he did run full speed routes during the open portion of Friday’s practice, the only day this week he participated. Expect Fitzgerald to play barring a setback, but there’s no telling how he’ll hold up through the game. Working in his favor is an additional week of rest and treatment since sustaining the original injury Sept. 11 in practice.

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys, back (P): Tightness in his back kept Bryant off the practice field Wednesday, but he was back Thursday doing work. By Friday he was a full participant, and he will be on the field Sunday.

T.Y. Hilton, groin, and Reggie Wayne, shoulder, Indianapolis Colts (P): After his big performance in Week 2, fantasy owners are in a panic about Hilton’s injury. That panic increased when it initially appeared Friday as if he could miss the game. A later update to the Colts injury report noted Hilton’s status as probable, allowing fantasy owners to breathe a sigh of relief.

Wayne is just about as reliable as they come, so his appearance on the report rarely prompts a panic. He too is listed as probable. Both receivers are expected to take the field along with their new teammate, running back Trent Richardson, when they face the 49ers at Candlestick on Sunday.

Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears, back (P): When Marshall left Thursday’s practice early with back tightness, the Bears indicated it was largely precautionary. It appears that was indeed the case as Marshall returned to full practice Friday and, at probable, is expected to play Sunday night against the Steelers.

Danny Amendola, New England Patriots, groin (D): Despite his presence on the practice field (at least during the early portions open to the media), Amendola never progressed past limited status. The sense is that he still has a ways to go to return to playing in games. The doubtful tag indicates the team does not plan to have him Sunday.

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins, groin (Q): Wallace was a late addition to the injury report with a groin injury. He went from listed as a full practice participant Thursday to limited Friday. It’s worth remembering the Dolphins do not practice Thursdays, so practice reports on those days are a projection of what might have been. It’s unclear how or when he sustained the injury, but Wallace did have a mild groin ailment in the preseason that kept him out of a couple of practice sessions and the first preseason game. The good news is that he did participate to some degree Friday. The bad news is that this is a late game Sunday and, with the questionable tag, his status is likely to be uncertain until an hour beforehand.

Tight ends

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers, toe (P): Despite remaining on the injury report again this week because of a toe injury, Finley is expected to play Sunday, just as he did last week. Finley got Wednesday off and saw limited work Thursday and Friday, but the probable tag tells us he should be in the lineup.

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers, hamstring (Q): Throughout the week, Davis had not shown any sign of discouragement about his hamstring; in fact, he expressed confidence early on that he would be ready for Sunday’s contest against the Colts. On Friday, however, his comments seemed a little more cryptic. Asked about his status, Davis told The Sacramento Bee, “We shall see when Sunday comes." He did say he was feeling “pretty good,” yet he also described himself as “sore.”

Although he didn’t practice formally all week, Davis was able to do some light running Friday. It bears repeating: Hamstring strains are notoriously difficult to predict and are extremely easy to aggravate. While it would seem Davis has a chance to play Sunday, this is a late game and his status may not be known until just prior to kickoff.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers, knee (P): Miller’s practice activity took a marked upturn this week as he participated in consecutive full practices from Wednesday through Friday. After coming into the past two games as questionable, Miller this week is upgraded to probable, which tells us the Steelers expect him to take the field. It will be nice to see him return to action after such a devastating knee injury last season, but it’s worth remembering there is still some adjustment to playing in live games (think: RG III).

As ESPN.com’s Scott Brown reported, Miller offered this perspective: “Whenever I'm ready to play, I think it's unrealistic to think I'm going to come back in midseason form." Expectations should be guarded initially, but he could provide a boost for what has been a lackluster offense.

Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots, back/forearm (Q): Much has already been said in this space about Gronkowski’s ongoing progress. His status for Sunday is still uncertain, although it seems he would likely take part in more than just limited work in practice before returning to game situations.

Fred Davis, Washington Redskins, ankle (Q): Davis was added to the injury report Saturday with an ankle injury of uncertain severity. The questionable tag coming the day before the game suggests fantasy owners should make a backup plan.

Out

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints, foot: Ingram was not practicing throughout the week because of the foot. The Saints did fantasy owners a favor by removing him from the list of available backs in Week 3. Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas will face the Falcons.

Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons, hamstring: The Falcons made the announcement Thursday that Jackson would miss Week 3, and coach Mike Smith intimated that his absence would extend another week or two, at least.

Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego Chargers, neck: Floyd was taken off the field last week on a spine board after suffering a frightening neck injury. Thankfully the injury was not more serious, but it will take time before Floyd is released to contact. It is no surprise that he is out this week and likely for a bit longer.

Brandon Weeden, QB, Cleveland Browns, thumb: Weeden was ruled out earlier in the week after injuring his thumb late in last week’s game. The Browns surprised some by announcing Brian Hoyer will get the start. There is no timetable for when Weeden will be available (and it’s unclear whether he will automatically reclaim the starting role), but it appears he will not need surgery on his thumb.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2013

[h=1]Sneaky fantasy pickups entering Week 3

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
New Arizona Cardinals running back Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for 60 and 66 yards in his first two games, scored a touchdown in Week 2 and has 20 fantasy points so far, good for 14th in standard scoring among running backs. He’s no fantasy star, but the case can be made he is close to being a top-20 running back and certainly should be owned in all leagues.
But should he be trusted? After all, the Cardinals have interesting young legs on their running back depth chart, including rookie Andre Ellington, who scored Sunday on a 36-yard pass reception from Carson Palmer. Ellington, a sixth-round pick from Clemson, finished his college career with consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons and 35 touchdowns, and he looks like a late-round gem capable of handling more responsibility.

This new, diversified Cardinals offense is off to a decent start, with a legit quarterback, Larry Fitzgerald and other receiving weapons, and the capable Mendenhall at least making defenses honest. Mendenhall is not much of a receiver, though, and that’s where Ellington seemed to emerge in Week 2. A month ago, Ellington, who stands 5-foot-9 but brings an explosive dimension to the backfield that Mendenhall, ahem, does not, was no lock to make the roster. After all, it seems like we’ve been waiting years for brittle Ryan Williams to get healthy, but it hasn’t happened. Stanford rookieStepfan Taylor, who also looked good Sunday, was selected a round earlier than Ellington, but he’s not the upside pick Ellington is. Coach Bruce Arians clearly isn’t afraid of using inexperienced players, and with Mendenhall listed as questionable for an enticing matchup with the New Orleans Saints this week, there could be opportunity.
Ultimately, fantasy owners shouldn’t presume Ellington -- or any of the Cardinals backups -- plays a significant role soon, but this is an intriguing offense to watch. As is our wont in the Sneaky Pickups blog entry, it’s not so much about this week but about identifying future value and snapping those players up before they’re known by all. Mendenhall has toe and knee woes and played in six games a year ago. He also tallied 324 rushing attempts for thePittsburgh Steelers in 2010, and let’s face it, some running backs don’t recover from high workloads. Alfonso Smith has been listed as the main backup, but he’s nothing special. Williams wasn’t even active last week. Ellington, meanwhile, has five receiving targets in two weeks, which might not seem like much, but it’s more than Cincinnati Bengals rookieGiovani Bernard, Indianapolis Colts veteran Ahmad Bradshaw and San Diego Chargersunderachiever Ryan Mathews have. Ellington lined up occasionally on the outside as a receiver in preseason games, a harbinger the team just wants him on the field. So far, so good, and keep an eye on Mendenhall’s health.
Quarterback: It’s a wonderful time to buy low on Washington Redskins sophomore Robert Griffin III, but if you’re in a really deep league, it can’t hurt to secure backup Kirk Cousinsjust in case. But I don’t see a change coming. … The new Cleveland Browns are going with third-stringer Brian Hoyer this week, and expectations are low. Real low. Just note the opposing Minnesota Vikings, a team defense suddenly very popular, hasn’t been very good against opposing quarterbacks so far. … Miami Dolphins sophomore Ryan Tannehill has been competent, in double-digit scoring for a pair of road games. Just note that the bye weeks start in Week 4, with top-10 choices Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton off. Tannehill will be in New Orleans that week. Plan ahead.
Running back: We’re a bit past sneaky when it comes to the Browns in the wake of the stunning Trent Richardson trade, but veteran Willis McGahee is the guy you want. It’s possible the Browns take a look at Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey, but I think the Browns think McGahee can perform as well as Richardson was. By the way, McGahee was the No. 14 fantasy running back when he butchered his leg in Week 11. He was certainly competent. … See if Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell, enticing Dallas Cowboys choice Lance Dunbar, St. Louis Rams sophomore Isaiah Pead, forgotten Detroit Lions option Mikel Leshoure and San Francisco 49ers veteran Kendall Hunter are available, in that order. The Steelers will let Bell play as soon as he’s ready. Dunbar didn’t get many chances in Week 2, but at least he’s playing, and we know that’s often a problem for DeMarco Murray. Leshoure seems buried, but if Reggie Bush sits, he’ll play. The Lions could also trade Leshoure at some point to a more desperate team. And I think Frank Gore will be just fine and didn’t expect much in Week 2 against the tough Seattle Seahawks, but if Gore struggles this week against the Colts, well, something could be wrong and Hunter is next.
Wide receiver: Kudos to fantasy owners for sticking with Browns receiver Josh Gordon. This guy is good, and he’s active this week. Don’t worry about the quarterback situation. … Get ahead of the game with Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Justin Blackmon, eligible for their Week 5 game at St. Louis. … San Francisco star Michael Crabtree is owned in more leagues than Mario Manningham, but which guy is likely returning to the field first? It’s Manningham, who wrecked a knee last December but is expected to return in October.Anquan Boldin currently has 14 of the team’s 22 receptions from the position. … Don’t forget about the New York Jets' Jeremy Kerley. He missed Week 2 with a concussion, but he saw more than double the targets of any Jets wide receiver last season and remains relevant. … Keep an eye on the Steelers and young Markus Wheaton, a deep threat who hasn’t been on the field much but is certainly capable of making defenses think. While we’re on the Steelers, there’s no shortage of tight end depth these days, but Heath Miller is one of the good ones and he could play this week. Those in deeper formats should see if he’s an upgrade for them.
Best of luck to all in Week 3 and beyond!

HacheMan · Sep 23, 2013

[h=1]Instant Impressions from Week 3[/h][h=3]Browns' passing game sparkles; what to make of running back injuries[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

There's no other way for me to express my feelings for the man: Brian Hoyer for president.
OK, not really. But Hoyer offered competent work at quarterback for the Cleveland Brownson Sunday, and more importantly offered hope that Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron can be fantasy factors. Hoyer went 30-of-54 for 321 yards, three TDs and three INTs. Against a better and/or healthier defense than the Minnesota Vikings, one gets the sense that Hoyer's continued mistakes would've been fatal, and I wouldn't consider starting him next week against the Cincinnati Bengals. But with the Browns showing zero sign of a running game sans Trent Richardson -- Willis McGahee had eight carries for 9 yards -- it was heartening to know Hoyer was capable of taking advantage of a good matchup. That's often been beyond Brandon Weeden.

Gordon -- who reportedly might be made available for trade by the Browns -- was targeted an overwhelming 19 times Sunday, and caught 10 of them for 146 yards, including a 47-yard bomb TD. Cameron was a red zone monster with three TDs (to be fair, one came on a fake field goal attempt). Per my friend and colleague Tristan Cockcroft, Cameron's 49 standard-league fantasy points is the third-most for a TE through three weeks since 2001. (Jimmy Graham's 58 this year is the most.) Please believe me that it absolutely won't be this easy every week. The Vikings lost a couple of members of their secondary during Sunday's game, and aren't good on the back end anyway. The Bengals, for instance, are awfully good on defense and in particular at stopping opposing passing games (they haven't allowed a 300-yard passer for 18 straight games, including some fellow namedAaron Rodgers on Sunday). But no matter the state of Weeden's injured thumb, Hoyer is starting next week. And that's good news. Keep your expectations for Gordon in check, but feel free to go loony on Cameron, who now at minimum looks like a top-five fantasy TE.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:
• Speaking of Twitter, hey followers: Remember when some of you were slagging me because I didn't have C.J. Spiller at No. 2 overall in my draft rankings? Yeah, that was great. Of course, I still did have Spiller at No. 8 overall, which isn't looking very good, either. Sunday afternoon, Spiller had 10 yards on 11 touches, and had to leave the game with what the Buffalo Bills called a "knee injury," and refused to clarify. In his stead, Fred Jackson was his usual lunch-pail self, with 109 total yards on 11 touches (59 of them came on a single run). We'll wait for word on Spiller's longer-term health, but here's hoping you handcuffed Jackson to him. F-Jax would likely be a flex next week against the Baltimore Ravens.
• Drew Brees and Cam Newton took their turn among the elite QBs, producing giant weeks, including each man's first rushing TD of the season. Brees and Graham are well-nigh unstoppable; they connected nine times for 134 yards and two scores Sunday. Newton started slow and still hasn't exceeded 229 yards passing in a game this season, but he was strong in finding Brandon LaFell in the end zone a couple of times. It'll be a rare week when each of these guys isn't in the top five of my QB ranks.
• Why can't DeMarco Murray play the St. Louis Rams every game? In Week 6 of his rookie season, he produced a Dallas Cowboys team-record 253 rushing yards, which served as his fantasy coming-out party. Sunday, Murray rushed for 175 and a TD against the Rams and didn't even play in the fourth quarter because the game was a blowout. It was Murray's first 100-yard rushing game since Week 1 last season.

• Of the two handcuffs thrust into a clear starting RB role Sunday, Joique Bell produced better numbers thanBernard Pierce. Bell's skills really don't match those of Reggie Bush; he's not particularly quick or straight-line fast. But he's a tremendous receiver and an almost impossibly slippery and balanced runner who's very difficult to bring down. In other words: TheDetroit Lions' offense hums just fine when Bush isn't in there. Bell racked up 132 yards from scrimmage and a TD. Meanwhile, Pierce had a more difficult matchup against the Houston Texansand he gutted out some strong runs in traffic, but 65 yards on 24 carries isn't pretty. He got two straight chances inside Houston's 5 and converted on the second, saving his fantasy day. Expect Bush back in the Lions' lineup next week, relegating Bell to deep-league flex territory. Meanwhile, Ray Rice could miss another game, and if that's so, Pierce will continue to be a No. 2 fantasy back against the Bills.
• Maybe we can't dismiss Ahmad Bradshaw so easily after all. Richardson's first carry Sunday afternoon came from the San Francisco 49ers' 1, and he converted for a TD. But Bradshaw was easily the better RB Sunday, especially when the Indianapolis Colts were in clock-killing mode and the Niners were clearly stuffing the box to stop him. This is a reminder to be circumspect about T-Rich next week. My guess is still that eventually Richardson will be the more valuable commodity, not least because Bradshaw will have a hard time staying healthy with 22 touches per week. But it's hard to imagine the Colts withdrawing Bradshaw from the game plan after this performance.
• Speaking of the Niners, what the heck is up with Colin Kaepernick? I can't wait to break down the film and get the full story for myself, but having seen Frank Gore just eat the Colts alive on the game's first drive, and then seeing San Francisco do absolutely nothing thereafter? Weird. Kaepernick's problem in Week 2 was supposedly the vicious Seattle Seahawks defense, but having already watched them play twice this season, I have a hard time buying the Indy D as elite. There seems to be very little read-option in the 49ers game plan now, which was fine Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers, but hasn't worked since.

• The Packers are going to need their Week 4 bye. James Starks had 55 yards on 14 carries against that tough Bengals D before suffering a knee injury, from which he didn't return. That's just not a surprise; Starks has talent, but has never been able to stay healthy when given significant playing time. Jermichael Finley took a brutal hit over the middle and suffered a concussion. Clay Matthews suffered a hamstring injury and didn't return. And Eddie Lacy and John Kuhn were both inactive with injuries. In particular the RB carnage is significant because it gave rookie Johnathan Franklin a huge opportunity. For a while, he did a lot with it. Franklin wound up with 126 total yards on 16 touches and scored a nice speedy red zone TD, but he also fumbled at a terrible time, when the Packers were going for it on fourth-and-inches trying to salt the game away. The lost fumble was returned for the winning Cincy TD. Franklin did some good things, and it's possible he'll stay involved. But any chance that he ran away with the starting job ended with that fumble. Lacy is the starter here.
• All the way back in 2009, the New England Patriots were known as the Bermuda Triangle of fantasy RBs. You never knew from week to week who'd be the game plan's focus, as such luminaries as Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk took turns. Then BenJarvus Green-Ellis became Tom Brady's goal-line caddie for a couple of years, and Stevan Ridley took over that role last season. Well, it's back to the future in New England. Ridley, Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount seem set to create a problematic backfield triumvirate. Don't be fooled by Blount's 14 carries; eight of those came in clock-killing mode against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his old team. But Bolden was out there a ton with the score close, and proved he's the best receiving RB Brady has without Shane Vereen in the mix. Ridley is still the best runner in New England, but he isn't always used that way. I'm going to have a difficult time ranking any of these guys as better than a flex in Week 4 against the Atlanta Falcons.
• Speaking of Green-Ellis, he lost a fumble that the Packers returned for a TD on Sunday, and once again was easily outshone skills-wise by rookie Giovani Bernard. Fantasy owners desperately want Bernard to get a chance to be a true lead back, and maybe that's coming soon. I admit that despite his Week 3 mistake, Green-Ellis is a trustworthy (if uninspiring) veteran. That said, Bernard and the Law Firm shared a pair of red zone scores, and Bernard is just a menace catching it out of the backfield. In terms of talent, Bernard deserves to be rated as a top-20 fantasy back. I think the Bengals are going to figure that out sooner rather than later.

• This Week in Tom Brady Panic: Tom Terrific scored only 15 fantasy points by going 25-of-36 for 225 yards, two TDs and an end zone interception, which still isn't good enough. That said, his rookie wideouts were much better.Aaron Dobson actually seemed like the more reliable of the kids; I didn't see him drop anything, plus Brady absolutely blew what should've been an all-alone red zone TD to Dobson. But Kenbrell Thompkins scored two TDs (and had an awful drop). At this point, you have to figure Rob Gronkowski is on his way back for next week, which could render all these guys pretty much unusable. But things look rosier for Brady now than they did after Week 2.
• We all figured it would be a nice matchup for the New York Jets' backfield against a soft Buffalo run defense. We just thought it might beChris Ivory who'd take advantage, because he looked stronger than Bilal Powell in Week 2. But Ivory suffered a hamstring injury early, and totaled just 5 yards on four carries. In his absence, Powell put together the first 100-yard rushing day of his NFL career, with 149 yards on a whopping 29 carries. (Third-stringer Alex Green saw five totes himself). It seems pretty possible the oft-injured Ivory will miss more time, which would mean Powell would have a starting job to himself in Week 4 against the Tennessee Titans.
• Wideout injuries continue to daunt fantasy owners. Andre Johnson suffered an injured shin in the first half and returned after halftime, but was unable to continue. Vincent Jackson hurt his ribs and couldn't return. And Miles Austin pulled a hamstring and left the game (surprise!). Stay tuned for updates on these guys throughout the week. The most interesting fantasy asset among all these guys' backups is DeAndre Hopkins.
• Daryl Richardson aggravated his foot injury on the first snap of the game Sunday, which gave Isaiah Pead a full workload. Pead didn't do anything with his carries (six totes for 20 yards) but did catch all seven of his targets from check-down monster Sam Bradford. The Rams play the 49ers on Thursday night, which puts Richardson's status very much in doubt for Week 4.

• Are you proud that I've gone this long without complaining about David Wilson? In the New York Giants' shutout loss, Wilson had 11 carries for 39 yards, but was stuck on six carries for minus-2 yards until the game was 31-0. There was momentary hope early in the second quarter when Wilson flashed the sick speed we all know he has, getting around the left edge and scampering for a 17-yard TD, but the play was called back because of a hold. Brandon Jacobs and Da'Rel Scott weren't factors, and the offensive line is just horrendous. But Wilson is just such a disappointment. I'll continue to rank him way outside my top 20 RBs.
• Marshawn Lynch was stopped twice on the one-inch line. Ouch. I lip-read Pete Carroll telling Beast Mode that he'd get him into the end zone next time, but it never happened. Instead, unusual suspects Sidney Rice and Zach Miller each scored two TDs. That stings.
• Christian Ponder scored 21 standard-league fantasy points. Thirteen of those were on rushing TDs (which went for a combined 14 yards). Nobody can take those scores away from him, but otherwise the Vikings QB was an uninspiring mess. He checks almost everything down, or else throws long passes up for grabs. When he gets pressure, he starts running around backwards in the pocket and inevitably either gets sacked or fumbles. At one point in the game broadcast, in unwarranted praise of Ponder, Solomon Wilcots said, "There are some quarterbacks who need playmakers, and there are some quarterbacks that are playmakers." And I just shook my head.
• Eddie Royal caught another TD! Unfortunately, it came on a blatant pick play, which was called back for offensive pass interference. So everyone's favorite San Diego Chargers slot receiver is only on pace for 26.7 TDs now. For shame.

HacheMan · Sep 23, 2013

[h=1]Four Downs: What's wrong with San Fran?

[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
The high-flying offensive team that represented the NFC in the last Super Bowl is now saddled with the first losing streak in the Jim Harbaugh era. Last week the San Francisco 49ers were dominated in the rain in Seattle against the Seahawks, which is somewhat understandable. The Seahawks are terrific, especially at their loud home. However, on Sunday the Indianapolis Colts came to the Bay Area and shut down Colin Kaepernick & Co. 27-7. It's the second consecutive week that no 49ers player scored more than 10 standard fantasy points, and it's likely going to push overreacting fantasy owners to either sit Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis for Thursday's matchup at St. Louis, or worse yet trade them for less than full value. That would be a mistake.

Kaepernick remains a fascinating and intriguing talent, but nine fantasy points in a two-game span isn't supposed to happen to a top-10 quarterback. Well, chances are, many won't view him this way any longer. The problems from the past few Sundays seem somewhat obvious yet potentially fixable by a smart coaching staff. After all, the 49ers aren't panicking, so why should fantasy owners this soon? Kaepernick needs more weapons than Boldin, for one, and defenses know it after the Week 1 performance in which Boldin had 208 receiving yards. Tight end Davis and his balky hamstring did not dress for the blowout loss, the first time he has not played in six years. And receivers Kyle Williams, Marlon Moore and Quinton Patton were rarely open Sunday. Kaepernick completed more than 55 percent of his passes that were 10 yards or more downfield a season ago, but after three games -- and notably withoutMichael Crabtree -- that number is below 38 percent. Davis, for one, excelled downfield in Week 1, but without him, Kaepernick was 1-for-6 for 30 yards on such plays Sunday.

<offer style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">As for the running game, other than one first-quarter drive in which Gore had three runs for 54 yards and Kendall Hunter scored on a 13-yard jaunt, there was little opportunity, though the score also dictated a different offensive game plan as well. Gore carried the ball three times after halftime. A week ago, Kaepernick was running for his life and still gained 87 yards on nine carries. On Sunday, the Colts swarmed defensively like the Seahawks had, and he gained only 20 yards. For a player who became a fantasy monster in part due to his running ability, perhaps that's the most disturbing number.

Kaepernick, with only 10 career starts, seemed unsure of himself against the Colts, as the read option was muted, his offensive line was getting manhandled and his receivers rarely created separation. Kaepernick completed only two passes in the first half! But give the Colts credit. It's the same defense that in Week 1 was run all over by Oakland Raidersquarterback Terrelle Pryor. Adjustments were clearly made and Kaepernick, who has been dealing with a foot injury but did not cite this as a factor, didn't run with his normal aplomb.

And yet, things are likely to improve, which is exactly how a fantasy owner should view things. I'll take talent over a few ugly performances. Davis is expected to play Thursday against the Rams, a team the Dallas Cowboys ran and threw on Sunday with relative ease. The schedule remains enticing for the 49ers, with several defenses that were manhandled this week (Rams, Texans, Cardinals, Jaguars). Assuming Kaepernick is healthy and more confident in his ability and decision-making moving ahead, his line and running game can be more consistent and someone other than Boldin and Davis can step up on occasion, the 49ers offense is going to help fantasy owners. Just remain patient.

Second down: As for the surprising Colts, it wasn't quarterback Andrew Luck producing massive numbers in the win; the defense and running game led the way. Newcomer Trent Richardson scored on his first Colts rush, but after that, incumbent starter Ahmad Bradshawwas more effective, rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown and catching three passes. Could it be that fantasy owners were premature in dismissing Bradshaw as a reasonable flex option moving ahead? Richardson is obviously capable of scoring touchdowns and catching passes, too. In this case, early impressions shouldn't be overrated, but it seems unlikely the Colts will simply push Bradshaw, with 16 and 13 fantasy points, respectively, over the past fortnight, to the side. I'll feel compelled to rank Richardson better than Bradshaw in Week 4, but not among my top 10 running backs, and those cutting Bradshaw (he's down a few ticks to 95 percent owned) should reconsider. There remains value here.

Third down: For about an hour or so early in Sunday's first round of games, Cleveland Browns third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer was the most talked-about player in the league, sure to be a fantasy pickup. And then he came down to earth, though he still finished with 18 fantasy points and the actual victory in Minnesota, costing many folks an Eliminator Challenge entrant. Hoyer is part of the story; he was able to get the ball downfield, where talented wide receiver Josh Gordon, fresh off his two-game suspension, was ridiculously open for a 47-yard touchdown pass in the opening quarter and ended up with an impressive 146 receiving yards on 10 catches, with a silly 19 targets. Meanwhile, tight end Jordan Cameron hauled in three touchdown passes. Put simply, Hoyer might keep the starting job from Brandon Weeden, but he's not a true fantasy factor yet; the value is that perhaps soon we'll view him the way we do Arizona Cardinals gunslingerCarson Palmer or Cincinnati Bengals option Andy Dalton in trusting his weapons. Gordon is legit. He's owned in most leagues, and a decent play -- perhaps top-20 -- in Week 4 versus the Bengals. Cameron is clearly a top-5 tight end at this point. Also, the Browns should run the ball better in future weeks. With Richardson gone, newcomer Willis McGahee ran eight times for nine yards, but we're talkin' baby steps here, folks. At least the passing game is finally relevant.

Fourth down: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees led all players in standard fantasy scoring entering the Sunday night Chicago Bears-Pittsburgh Steelers tilt, but perhaps more surprising was the fact that the Saints defense was again stifling to fantasy performers. In Week 1, the Atlanta Falcons scored 17 points. In Week 2, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 14 points, half of them on defense. And then on Sunday, Carson Palmer and the Cardinals figured to air things out and put up numbers, but after an early touchdown they frustratingly punted eight times. Palmer threw for only 187 yards after averaging 100 more than that the first two weeks. Fantasy owners always look at the Saints as a chance for their own players to fatten up statistically, but these Saints are forcing turnovers and avoiding shootouts, and winning each week. Ryan Tannehill and theMiami Dolphins looked pretty sweet in Sunday's win over Atlanta, but don't assume big numbers are coming in the Week 4 Monday night showdown against the Saints.</offer>

varkeyboy · Sep 24, 2013

Hache,

Thank u for posting this stuff on a weekly basis. Very much appreciated over here! Go BEARS...

HacheMan · Sep 24, 2013

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 4[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 4's best fantasy roster additions:
(Week 4 byes: Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers)
Standard ESPN League Finds
Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons (owned in 15.3 percent of ESPN.com leagues). It's been slim pickings at the top through the first month of waiver adds. Last year we had Alfred Morris and James Jones. This year we get ... Jason Snelling? Don't get me wrong, both Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers (who's owned in 82.8 percent of leagues) played well Sunday. Rodgers was the lead back, playing on about 60 percent of snaps, while Snelling played on about half. Quizz is the guy you'd probably rather start, but Snelling -- the close-in TD maker and a good pass-catcher -- isn't horrible in a pinch for Steven Jackson owners, who are reportedly likely to be without their man for at least another couple of weeks. I made Snelling a "deep-league" add in last week's column simply because it sounded as though Jackson wouldn't be out that long. Now he graduates to being ownable in all leagues.

Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers (1.6 percent). I was to blame for Franklin's high fantasy ranking all summer. I loved him at UCLA, loved him coming into April's draft, and kept propping up his ESPN rating despite reports that he was botching his first training camp. Some of you probably drafted Franklin because of me, and rightly dropped him when he didn't sniff the field through two games. But Eddie Lacy and John Kuhn missed Sunday's game and James Starks suffered a knee injury, meaning Franklin was the last man standing. And for most of the game, he was a revelation, running with the speed and power I admired from his college days. Unfortunately, he also fumbled on a fourth-and-short as the Pack was in clock-killing mode, a turnover that the Cincinnati Bengals returned for the game-winning TD. Green Bay would be best off with Lacy as their early-down back and Franklin as the changeup man. We'll have to see how things shake out after this week's bye. But Franklin can once again be added in all leagues.
Willis McGahee, RB, Cleveland Browns (27.7 percent). The numbers in McGahee's first game with the Browns don't look good: 9 yards on 8 carries. And in a shootout with theMinnesota Vikings, the Browns passed it 54 times and rushed it only 17. Unless Brian Hoyeris ready to become Kurt Warner, that ratio isn't anything close to sustainable. Trent Richardson is, of course, gone, and only McGahee, Bobby Rainey and Chris Ogbonnayaremain. I'll talk about Rainey below, but despite this first effort, McGahee still seems like the guy to own. He had a couple nice runs Sunday, and still welcomes contact as frequently as ever. He's a battering ram.

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints (17.8 percent). It's pretty crazy to think that whileMark Ingram is out with a bad toe, Frenchy is still only owned in 17.8 percent of leagues. True, even with 17 touches Sunday, he accounted for only 67 total yards. But Thomas is still the same spark plug you remember from the past five-plus seasons, still an all-around winning player. My only reservation in adding him in all leagues is imperfect knowledge about Ingram's future. Certainly, to date Ingram hasn't proved he's an NFL-caliber RB, and if the Saints decide to marginalize him, then Thomas is going to get enough work to be a fantasy factor. But if Sean Payton keeps Ingram around as part of the game plan, well, Thomas will continue to be the frustrating dude we've known for two years.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions (54.9 percent). This is a clear violation of this column's rules, which call for omitting anybody owned in more than half of ESPN.com leagues. But I have an excuse. The first draft I wrote had Nate Burleson in it. And then Burleson crashed his car early Tuesday morning, fracturing his arm in two places. Burleson had been the clear No. 2 wideout in Detroit, with 23 targets and 19 catches, but he's out indefinitely, and the Lions have no choice but to look back at Broyles. A flag player of mine this summer, Broyles has a ton of route-running chops and great hands out of the slot, so the only question comes down to his surgically repaired knees. If he holds up, he'll be a startable fantasy player, especially in point-per-reception leagues. You probably can't put him in your lineup right away, but you can definitely add him.
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST (40.9 percent). I've said it a hundred times this year: We stink at predicting fantasy defenses before the season starts. There's a reason you shouldn't select your fantasy defense before the final couple of rounds of your draft. The Chiefs are an example why. Do I think this is a great Kansas City squad? Absolutely not. Do I think we're going to see better, more consistent offenses poke holes in this defense? Sure. But you can't watch Justin Houston blossom as an elite pass-rusher opposite Tamba Hali and not have your interest piqued. Heck, somehow Andy Reid is getting strong play out of former No. 3 overall pick (and four-year bust) Tyson Jackson. If there's a weakness here, it's actually the fairly poor play of high-priced corners Brandon Flowers and Dunta Robinson, but they could come around. As it is, this unit is the highest-scoring D/ST in fantasy through three weeks, and probably should be added in all leagues.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (7.0 percent); Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots (8.1 percent); Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots (34.9 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (50.0 percent); Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars (10.6 percent); Andre Roberts, Cardinals (29.3 percent); Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens (16.5 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (6.7 percent).
Deeper League Finds

Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots (0.3 percent). This is cheating. I had Bolden on the "deep" list just two weeks ago. But I removed him after he didn't contribute in a Thursday night win over the New York Jets, so I'm writing him up again to mark his return to the column. With Shane Vereen out, Bolden is the Pats' best pass-catching back, and he grabbed five passes for 49 yards Sunday. You'll probably get the biggest bang for your buck out of Bolden in a PPR league, because Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount will do most of the heavy lifting on early downs. But if the Patriots can get back to their up-tempo ways and keep defenses from substituting, Bolden might be a prime beneficiary.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets (8.1 percent). Let's face it, Holmes is hard to trust. He's catching passes from a rookie quarterback. He's coming off a serious foot injury. And he'd caught four passes for 64 yards in his first two games of '13. But he looked mighty fine Sunday. Playing against overmatched Buffalo Billscorner Justin Rogers for most of the day, Holmes separated at will and hauled in a couple of circus catches, winding up with 154 yards (albeit on only five grabs). Does this presage a return to form for Holmes? I'm skeptical, not least because of Geno Smith's inconsistency. But if you're in a deeper league, I don't hate the idea of stashing him to find out.
Bobby Rainey, RB, Browns (2.5 percent). I already mentioned that McGahee is my favorite for value in the Cleveland backfield, but that's really because I'm a stubborn old coot who only begins to believe things he sees over a longer period of time. Though he had only five touches, you can make the argument that Rainey was the most impressive man in the Browns' backfield Sunday, in that he was only stuffed once and looked shot out of a cannon a couple of times. I'm fine adding Rainey in a deep league and waiting to see how things shake out. Remember, though, that Chris Ogbonnaya (1.6 percent) is also in the mix as the primary passing-down back.
Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins (20.3 percent). By this point, you should be convinced that Moss is a deep-league PPR staple. I know he's 34 and any outside-receiver chops he had early in his career are long gone. But he's a fine weapon out of the slot. He's got 15 grabs already in '13, as Robert Griffin III turns into checkdown Charlie. He won't threaten 1,000 yards, and he probably won't approach the fluky eight TDs he scored last year. But his 23 targets have him inside the top 30 among WRs, and it won't be a shock to me if he stays there all year.
Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans (7.6 percent). Washington submitted a terrific game worthy of a No. 1 NFL wideout in Sunday's come-from-behind win, flashing deep speed and all-around route running, albeit against a San Diego Chargers pass defense that's struggling. Washington wound up with eight grabs for 131 yards. Unfortunately, he had only seven catches combined in the Titans' first two games, and that has been the story of Washington's career: He's got five career 100-yard receiving days in Tennessee, and has never followed one up with more than 62 yards the following week (and has averaged 30.6). So while it's tempting to imagine Jake Locker will get some great consistent chemistry going with Washington, it's just not likely.

Donnie Avery, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (4.3 percent). Seven grabs for 141 yards! Yes! Donnie Avery is back, baby! I mean, except he was never really here in the first place. It's not only that I don't trust Avery, who's inconsistent as a route runner. It's that I don't expect opposing defenses to be as ridiculously incompetent covering the underneath stuff on which Alex Smith is focused as the Philadelphia Eagles were last Thursday. If you were paying attention to the Indianapolis Colts last year, you saw Avery produce a couple fantasy-relevant games, but he'd be mighty tough to trust in anything but a deep league.

Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (2.2 percent). LaFell was a flag player of mine last summer and began the '12 campaign with two solid games, but he disappeared thereafter. So it's tough for me to be persuaded by a single great outing, especially one in which he caught three balls and two TDs. I've always been tempted by LaFell's raw tools. He's big and is a great leaper, the kind of flanker who should be a solid complement to Steve Smith. But he just doesn't get open. Add him in a 14-teamer, but don't start him until you see something resembling consistency, especially because Ted Ginn Jr. (1.3 percent) has siphoned off looks as a situational deep threat.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders (18.2 percent); E.J. Manuel, QB, Bills (12.8 percent); Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs (32.0 percent); Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals (2.7 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (6.0 percent); Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers (13.3 percent); Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers (0.4 percent); Stephen Hill, WR, Jets (2.8 percent); Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons (2.6 percent); Robert Woods, WR, Bills (5.6 percent); Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (1.5 percent);Coby Fleener, TE, Colts (15.4 percent); Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins (12.8 percent).

HacheMan · Sep 24, 2013

[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 4[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

You hear it said all the time: It's a quarterback's game.
So how about a little love for the running backs? After all, it has been a difficult time for running backs, whose fantasy production has been in perpetual decline as NFL teams shift their strategies more and more to the air.
Consider the facts:
• The top 10 running backs selected on average have averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game, with Ray Rice the only one to miss a game.
• The 10 most productive running backs in fantasy who were not selected among the first 10 have averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game. Six of these players were selected outside the top 25.
• There has been a 5.6 percent decline in fantasy production among the top 10 running backs -- that's the leaders to date -- comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2012, and 15.8 percent comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2011.
• The running back position as a whole has suffered a 4.5 percent decline in fantasy production through the first three weeks of this season comparative to the first three weeks of 2012, and a 7.5 percent decline comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2011.
And that's merely an overall position breakdown. Going individually, half of the top 20-selected running backs from the preseason have dealt with some sort of difficulty -- injury or effectiveness -- through three weeks:
No. 2 Arian Foster, who battled calf and back problems during the preseason, has 28 fantasy points through three games, his worst three-game, single-season point total since taking over as a starter at the end of 2009.
No. 4 Ray Rice missed Week 3 with a hip injury, though he seems fairly likely to return to action in Week 4.
No. 7 C.J. Spiller has 14 fantasy points through three games and left Week 3 early with a thigh injury, though he, too, is expected to play in Week 4.

No. 8 Trent Richardson might now be in prime position to thrive following his trade to the Indianapolis Colts, but he's still in the process of adapting to his new surroundings, evidenced by his playing 28 of 67 offensive snaps, that and his 41.8 percent of team snaps played his fewest (by far) since Week 7 of 2012.
No. 10 LeSean McCoy injured his ankle during the Week 3 Thursday game, though he's expected to play in Week 4.
No. 11 Steven Jackson injured his thigh in Week 2 and might not return to theAtlanta Falcons until after their Week 6 bye.
No. 14 Stevan Ridley has nine fantasy points. Total.
If you think that's bad, No. 17 David Wilson has one fantasy point in three games.
No. 19 Reggie Bush missed Week 3 with a knee injury he suffered the week before, and is no guarantee to suit up for Week 4.
No. 20 Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion during Week 2, sat out Week 3 and by all indications hasn't yet received medical clearance to return.
Now, this isn't either to say that all 10 players mentioned warrant long-term concern from their fantasy owners -- Rice, Richardson and McCoy, for instance, should -- or that the running back landscape is substantially more barren than in seasons past. Running back has always been a difficult position to navigate, but the needle appears to be pointing ever more toward a demand of careful, week-over-week analysis of your fantasy backfield.
At casual glance, the Consistency Ratings below might hint that running back has been a more productive position than quarterback to date; there have been more 3-for-3 "Start" running backs (10) than quarterbacks (2). But remember that these statistics are calculated comparative to replacement levels in ESPN fantasy leagues: Those two quarterbacks have averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, those 10 running backs 13.0, thus far. The least productive of those 3-for-3 quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford, has averaged 18.0 fantasy points per game, while the least productive of the running backs, Chris Johnson, has averaged 8.3.
The point is to utilize this tool to extract value, much in the same fashion that you would use VBD (Value Based Drafting) analysis. It is another way of illustrating players' values comparative to their brethren.
As fantasy owners are surely seeking help at running back, let's use these metrics to identify four value picks, either players you might consider targeting via trade ... or whom you should not deal if you already own them.
[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2012 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>
QB	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
RB	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
WR	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
TE	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
K	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
D/ST	Top 10	Top 2	21st+

Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: Bell seems like an easy inclusion, after posting the fourth-best fantasy point total among running backs in Week 4 (18), to earn the No. 4 spot for the season thus far (45). But the fact that he is traditionally a backup -- or at least the man listed second on the depth chart -- when Bush is healthy casts some doubt on his, and Bush's, value.
First, let's address Bush, as he's probably going to recapture the No. 1 back job once healthy. Bush's consistency numbers have suffered historically, a product of both lackluster rushing performances early in his career as well as his stature as a running back for a pass-happy New Orleans Saints offense through 2010. From 2010-13, 16 running backs were worth a fantasy "Start" more often than him, 13 a fantasy "Stud" more often. He has warranted being in your lineup less than half the time, as his 43.1 percent Consistency Rating will attest.
That said, Bush, as skilled a pass-catcher as any running back, is now on a team as apt to throw the ball as anyone. Consider that much of his sketchy consistency history is the product of missed games -- his 10 absences since the beginning of 2010 are more than any of the prominent fantasy backs except Darren McFadden (16), Jamaal Charles (14) and Maurice Jones-Drew (12) -- and when he has played, 53.7 percent of the time he was worth the start, 63.4 in PPR formats.
Bell, meanwhile, has had remarkably good consistency numbers in his brief career. He has a 31.6 percent Consistency Rating since the beginning of last season, 52.6 percent in PPR formats, and he has been a "Stiff" in a standardleague just three times ... remarkable for a player who has averaged just 9.6 touches per game during that time.
Owning these players in tandem is probably your smartest move, but so long as the division of labor remains clear entering any Lions game, either one will be well worth your while in any format.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals: A three-game sample is hardly a proper amount from which to make judgments, but in Bernard's case, his represents the seeds of an intriguing, up-and-coming superstar. Twice in three weeks he was a fantasy "Start" and once a "Stud" -- that's a top-five player at the position -- and he did it despite totaling 20 fewer touches than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in those three games.
But this pick is as much about what Green-Ellis can't do as much as it is what Bernard can. Green-Ellis' consistency numbers might paint the picture of a surefire NFL starter, as he has a 64.7 percent Consistency Rating since the beginning of 2010 that ranks him 11th, but it's a distinct lack of weekly upside that makes this an easy decision. Green-Ellis' five "Stud" games during that span are a number exceeded by 14 other running backs -- keeping in mind that many of the elite backs in fantasy haven't even played as many as four seasons -- and even that number has been padded by the fact that, during that same time, he has the second-most carries in the league within the opponent's 3-yard line (43, successful conversion on 19).
If you're wondering whether that'll continue, keep this in mind: As a member of the Cincinnati Bengals, Green-Ellis is only 6-for-15 in touchdowns in those situations, his 40.0 percent conversion rate beneath the league average of 48.3.
Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: I remain of the mind that he won't hit his full stride for a good 3-5 games into his Colts career, and that too much is being made of his potential for his new team, which really doesn't possess a good offensive line. The seasonal resultmight be a player who struggles to finish with a top-10 running back fantasy point total.
That said, Richardson's second-half appeal is monstrous. He's a member of a much more loaded offense now, with a quarterback sure to keep defenses honest, and by mid-October he should be fully acclimated to his new team. Besides, his Consistency Rating -- 68.4 percent thus far in his career, eighth-best at his position -- shows how reliable he had been, even on a bad team.
Here's another consistency-related nugget that supports the buy-low claim on Richardson: Former Colts starter Vick Ballard, whom no one would put close to on equal par to Richardson skills-wise, had a 56.3 percent Consistency Rating in 2012. It might be that the best time to target him in trade is in a few weeks -- perhaps coming off the tough Week 7 matchup and headed into the bye is ideal -- but he'll certainly warrant buy-low status if you can get him soon.
[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have met at least one of the following minimums for inclusion in the chart: 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in standard scoring leagues, 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in PPR formats. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.
These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">%</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sat</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">PPR%</center>
Peyton Manning	Den	100.0%	QB	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
LeSean McCoy	Phi	100.0%	RB	3	3	3	0	0	100.0%
Matthew Stafford	Det	100.0%	QB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Jordy Nelson	GB	100.0%	WR	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Julio Jones	Atl	100.0%	WR	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Julius Thomas	Den	100.0%	TE	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Seahawks D/ST	Sea	100.0%	D/ST	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Jamaal Charles	KC	100.0%	RB	3	3	2	0	0	100.0%
Matt Forte	Chi	100.0%	RB	3	3	2	0	0	100.0%
Jordan Cameron	Cle	100.0%	TE	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Doug Martin	TB	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Darren McFadden	Oak	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Fred Jackson	Buf	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Alfred Morris	Wsh	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Adrian Peterson	Min	100.0%	RB	3	3	1	0	0	66.7%
DeAngelo Williams	Car	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	66.7%
Chris Johnson	Ten	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	33.3%
Joique Bell	Det	66.7%	RB	3	2	2	0	0	100.0%
Bilal Powell	NYJ	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	100.0%
Jimmy Graham	NO	66.7%	TE	3	2	2	0	0	66.7%
Matt Prater	Den	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Aaron Rodgers	GB	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Michael Vick	Phi	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Philip Rivers	SD	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Matt Schaub	Hou	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
DeSean Jackson	Phi	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Eddie Royal	SD	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Andrew Luck	Ind	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Victor Cruz	NYG	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Randall Cobb	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Brandon Marshall	Chi	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Dan Bailey	Dal	66.7%	K	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Arian Foster	Hou	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Garrett Hartley	NO	66.7%	K	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Jermichael Finley	GB	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Lions D/ST	Det	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Trent Richardson	Ind	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Demaryius Thomas	Den	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
A.J. Green	Cin	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Drew Brees	NO	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Chiefs D/ST	KC	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Cowboys D/ST	Dal	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Calvin Johnson	Det	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Steve Johnson	Buf	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Wes Welker	Den	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Brian Hartline	Mia	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Caleb Sturgis	Mia	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Jason Witten	Dal	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Giovani Bernard	Cin	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Bears D/ST	Chi	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
DeMarco Murray	Dal	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Dan Carpenter	Buf	66.7%	K	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw	Ind	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Frank Gore	SF	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Antonio Gates	SD	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Bernard Pierce	Bal	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Ted Ginn	Car	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Bengals D/ST	Cin	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Jason Snelling	Atl	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Justin Tucker	Bal	66.7%	K	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Ravens D/ST	Bal	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Marlon Brown	Bal	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Da'Rel Scott	NYG	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Dez Bryant	Dal	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	33.3%
James Jones	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Daniel Thomas	Mia	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	33.3%
Denarius Moore	Oak	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Julian Edelman	NE	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Andre Johnson	Hou	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Brandon Myers	NYG	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Daryl Richardson	StL	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	0	1	66.7%
Pierre Garcon	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	0	0	66.7%
Jared Cook	StL	33.3%	TE	3	1	1	1	0	66.7%
Greg Olsen	Car	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	0	0	66.7%
Torrey Smith	Bal	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	66.7%
Cecil Shorts	Jac	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Eric Decker	Den	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	66.7%
Titans D/ST	Ten	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Jay Feely	Ari	33.3%	K	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Alex Henery	Phi	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Dolphins D/ST	Mia	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Doug Baldwin	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
EJ Manuel	Buf	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Tony Romo	Dal	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Russell Wilson	Sea	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Jake Locker	Ten	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Christian Ponder	Min	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Geno Smith	NYJ	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Robbie Gould	Chi	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Browns D/ST	Cle	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Saints D/ST	NO	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Matt Bryant	Atl	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Mason Crosby	GB	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Antonio Brown	Pit	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Nate Burleson	Det	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Colts D/ST	Ind	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Donnie Avery	KC	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ryan Succop	KC	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Nate Washington	Ten	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Stephen Hill	NYJ	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Panthers D/ST	Car	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Marcel Reece	Oak	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Golden Tate	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Zach Miller	Sea	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Shaun Suisham	Pit	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Scott Chandler	Buf	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Sidney Rice	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Ronnie Hillman	Den	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Jason Avant	Phi	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Brandon LaFell	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Brandon Bolden	NE	33.3%	RB	1	1	0	0	2	33.3%
Josh Gordon	Cle	33.3%	WR	1	1	1	0	2	33.3%
Gavin Escobar	Dal	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Johnathan Franklin	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Luke Willson	Sea	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Packers D/ST	GB	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Sam Bradford	StL	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Matt Ryan	Atl	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Robert Griffin III	Wsh	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Eli Manning	NYG	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Alex Smith	KC	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Colin Kaepernick	SF	33.3%	QB	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Marshawn Lynch	Sea	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Jay Cutler	Chi	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Reggie Bush	Det	33.3%	RB	2	1	1	0	1	33.3%
Martellus Bennett	Chi	33.3%	TE	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Knowshon Moreno	Den	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Anquan Boldin	SF	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Owen Daniels	Hou	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Vernon Davis	SF	33.3%	TE	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Broncos D/ST	Den	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Buccaneers D/ST	TB	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Nick Novak	SD	33.3%	K	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
James Starks	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Vincent Jackson	TB	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Charles Clay	Mia	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Patriots D/ST	NE	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Greg Zuerlein	StL	33.3%	K	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Rashard Mendenhall	Ari	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Blair Walsh	Min	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Tavon Austin	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Reggie Wayne	Ind	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Josh Brown	NYG	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Bills D/ST	Buf	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Texans D/ST	Hou	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Jerome Simpson	Min	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Marques Colston	NO	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Mike Wallace	Mia	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Jets D/ST	NYJ	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Rob Bironas	Ten	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Steven Jackson	Atl	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	0	1	33.3%
Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Nick Folk	NYJ	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Steve Smith	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ryan Mathews	SD	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Raiders D/ST	Oak	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Shane Vereen	NE	33.3%	RB	1	1	1	0	2	33.3%
Vikings D/ST	Min	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Darren Sproles	NO	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
C.J. Spiller	Buf	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Kellen Winslow	NYJ	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Austin Pettis	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ben Tate	Hou	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Malcom Floyd	SD	33.3%	WR	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Ray Rice	Bal	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Andre Ellington	Ari	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
49ers D/ST	SF	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
David Akers	Det	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Eddie Lacy	GB	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Phil Dawson	SF	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Kyle Rudolph	Min	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Chris Givens	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Graham Gano	Car	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Kendall Wright	Ten	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Lamar Miller	Mia	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Coby Fleener	Ind	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Danny Amendola	NE	33.3%	WR	1	1	0	0	2	33.3%
Eagles D/ST	Phi	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Vonta Leach	Bal	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Santana Moss	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Cam Newton	Car	33.3%	QB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Garrett Graham	Hou	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Mike Williams	TB	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Rueben Randle	NYG	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Brent Celek	Phi	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Jermaine Kearse	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Jackie Battle	Ten	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Clay Harbor	Jac	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Joseph Fauria	Det	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Marvin Jones	Cin	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Robert Meachem	NO	33.3%	WR	2	1	0	1	1	0.0%
Levine Toilolo	Atl	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Dion Sims	Mia	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Pierre Thomas	NO	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	0	0	66.7%
Danny Woodhead	SD	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	1	0	66.7%
Andre Roberts	Ari	0.0%	WR	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Dallas Clark	Bal	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	1	0	33.3%
Delanie Walker	Ten	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	0	0	33.3%
Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	1	0	33.3%
Isaiah Pead	StL	0.0%	RB	2	0	0	1	1	33.3%
Logan Paulsen	Wsh	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Miles Austin	Dal	0.0%	WR	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Cardinals D/ST	Ari	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Jaguars D/ST	Jac	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Rams D/ST	StL	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Falcons D/ST	Atl	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Redskins D/ST	Wsh	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	1	0	0.0%
Steelers D/ST	Pit	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	1	0	0.0%
Giants D/ST	NYG	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Chargers D/ST	SD	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	3	0	0.0%

HacheMan · Sep 24, 2013

[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 4[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

You hear it said all the time: It's a quarterback's game.
So how about a little love for the running backs? After all, it has been a difficult time for running backs, whose fantasy production has been in perpetual decline as NFL teams shift their strategies more and more to the air.
Consider the facts:
• The top 10 running backs selected on average have averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game, with Ray Rice the only one to miss a game.
• The 10 most productive running backs in fantasy who were not selected among the first 10 have averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game. Six of these players were selected outside the top 25.
• There has been a 5.6 percent decline in fantasy production among the top 10 running backs -- that's the leaders to date -- comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2012, and 15.8 percent comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2011.
• The running back position as a whole has suffered a 4.5 percent decline in fantasy production through the first three weeks of this season comparative to the first three weeks of 2012, and a 7.5 percent decline comparative to Weeks 1-3 of 2011.
And that's merely an overall position breakdown. Going individually, half of the top 20-selected running backs from the preseason have dealt with some sort of difficulty -- injury or effectiveness -- through three weeks:
No. 2 Arian Foster, who battled calf and back problems during the preseason, has 28 fantasy points through three games, his worst three-game, single-season point total since taking over as a starter at the end of 2009.
No. 4 Ray Rice missed Week 3 with a hip injury, though he seems fairly likely to return to action in Week 4.
No. 7 C.J. Spiller has 14 fantasy points through three games and left Week 3 early with a thigh injury, though he, too, is expected to play in Week 4.

No. 8 Trent Richardson might now be in prime position to thrive following his trade to the Indianapolis Colts, but he's still in the process of adapting to his new surroundings, evidenced by his playing 28 of 67 offensive snaps, that and his 41.8 percent of team snaps played his fewest (by far) since Week 7 of 2012.
No. 10 LeSean McCoy injured his ankle during the Week 3 Thursday game, though he's expected to play in Week 4.
No. 11 Steven Jackson injured his thigh in Week 2 and might not return to theAtlanta Falcons until after their Week 6 bye.
No. 14 Stevan Ridley has nine fantasy points. Total.
If you think that's bad, No. 17 David Wilson has one fantasy point in three games.
No. 19 Reggie Bush missed Week 3 with a knee injury he suffered the week before, and is no guarantee to suit up for Week 4.
No. 20 Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion during Week 2, sat out Week 3 and by all indications hasn't yet received medical clearance to return.
Now, this isn't either to say that all 10 players mentioned warrant long-term concern from their fantasy owners -- Rice, Richardson and McCoy, for instance, should -- or that the running back landscape is substantially more barren than in seasons past. Running back has always been a difficult position to navigate, but the needle appears to be pointing ever more toward a demand of careful, week-over-week analysis of your fantasy backfield.
At casual glance, the Consistency Ratings below might hint that running back has been a more productive position than quarterback to date; there have been more 3-for-3 "Start" running backs (10) than quarterbacks (2). But remember that these statistics are calculated comparative to replacement levels in ESPN fantasy leagues: Those two quarterbacks have averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, those 10 running backs 13.0, thus far. The least productive of those 3-for-3 quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford, has averaged 18.0 fantasy points per game, while the least productive of the running backs, Chris Johnson, has averaged 8.3.
The point is to utilize this tool to extract value, much in the same fashion that you would use VBD (Value Based Drafting) analysis. It is another way of illustrating players' values comparative to their brethren.
As fantasy owners are surely seeking help at running back, let's use these metrics to identify four value picks, either players you might consider targeting via trade ... or whom you should not deal if you already own them.
[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2012 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;"></center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>
QB	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
RB	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
WR	Top 25	Top 5	51st+
TE	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
K	Top 10	Top 2	21st+
D/ST	Top 10	Top 2	21st+

Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: Bell seems like an easy inclusion, after posting the fourth-best fantasy point total among running backs in Week 4 (18), to earn the No. 4 spot for the season thus far (45). But the fact that he is traditionally a backup -- or at least the man listed second on the depth chart -- when Bush is healthy casts some doubt on his, and Bush's, value.
First, let's address Bush, as he's probably going to recapture the No. 1 back job once healthy. Bush's consistency numbers have suffered historically, a product of both lackluster rushing performances early in his career as well as his stature as a running back for a pass-happy New Orleans Saints offense through 2010. From 2010-13, 16 running backs were worth a fantasy "Start" more often than him, 13 a fantasy "Stud" more often. He has warranted being in your lineup less than half the time, as his 43.1 percent Consistency Rating will attest.
That said, Bush, as skilled a pass-catcher as any running back, is now on a team as apt to throw the ball as anyone. Consider that much of his sketchy consistency history is the product of missed games -- his 10 absences since the beginning of 2010 are more than any of the prominent fantasy backs except Darren McFadden (16), Jamaal Charles (14) and Maurice Jones-Drew (12) -- and when he has played, 53.7 percent of the time he was worth the start, 63.4 in PPR formats.
Bell, meanwhile, has had remarkably good consistency numbers in his brief career. He has a 31.6 percent Consistency Rating since the beginning of last season, 52.6 percent in PPR formats, and he has been a "Stiff" in a standardleague just three times ... remarkable for a player who has averaged just 9.6 touches per game during that time.
Owning these players in tandem is probably your smartest move, but so long as the division of labor remains clear entering any Lions game, either one will be well worth your while in any format.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals: A three-game sample is hardly a proper amount from which to make judgments, but in Bernard's case, his represents the seeds of an intriguing, up-and-coming superstar. Twice in three weeks he was a fantasy "Start" and once a "Stud" -- that's a top-five player at the position -- and he did it despite totaling 20 fewer touches than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in those three games.
But this pick is as much about what Green-Ellis can't do as much as it is what Bernard can. Green-Ellis' consistency numbers might paint the picture of a surefire NFL starter, as he has a 64.7 percent Consistency Rating since the beginning of 2010 that ranks him 11th, but it's a distinct lack of weekly upside that makes this an easy decision. Green-Ellis' five "Stud" games during that span are a number exceeded by 14 other running backs -- keeping in mind that many of the elite backs in fantasy haven't even played as many as four seasons -- and even that number has been padded by the fact that, during that same time, he has the second-most carries in the league within the opponent's 3-yard line (43, successful conversion on 19).
If you're wondering whether that'll continue, keep this in mind: As a member of the Cincinnati Bengals, Green-Ellis is only 6-for-15 in touchdowns in those situations, his 40.0 percent conversion rate beneath the league average of 48.3.
Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: I remain of the mind that he won't hit his full stride for a good 3-5 games into his Colts career, and that too much is being made of his potential for his new team, which really doesn't possess a good offensive line. The seasonal resultmight be a player who struggles to finish with a top-10 running back fantasy point total.
That said, Richardson's second-half appeal is monstrous. He's a member of a much more loaded offense now, with a quarterback sure to keep defenses honest, and by mid-October he should be fully acclimated to his new team. Besides, his Consistency Rating -- 68.4 percent thus far in his career, eighth-best at his position -- shows how reliable he had been, even on a bad team.
Here's another consistency-related nugget that supports the buy-low claim on Richardson: Former Colts starter Vick Ballard, whom no one would put close to on equal par to Richardson skills-wise, had a 56.3 percent Consistency Rating in 2012. It might be that the best time to target him in trade is in a few weeks -- perhaps coming off the tough Week 7 matchup and headed into the bye is ideal -- but he'll certainly warrant buy-low status if you can get him soon.
[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have met at least one of the following minimums for inclusion in the chart: 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in standard scoring leagues, 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in PPR formats. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.
These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

Player	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">%</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Pos</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">G</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Start</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stud</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Stiff</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sat</center>	<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">PPR%</center>
Peyton Manning	Den	100.0%	QB	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
LeSean McCoy	Phi	100.0%	RB	3	3	3	0	0	100.0%
Matthew Stafford	Det	100.0%	QB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Jordy Nelson	GB	100.0%	WR	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Julio Jones	Atl	100.0%	WR	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Julius Thomas	Den	100.0%	TE	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Seahawks D/ST	Sea	100.0%	D/ST	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Jamaal Charles	KC	100.0%	RB	3	3	2	0	0	100.0%
Matt Forte	Chi	100.0%	RB	3	3	2	0	0	100.0%
Jordan Cameron	Cle	100.0%	TE	3	3	1	0	0	100.0%
Doug Martin	TB	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Darren McFadden	Oak	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Fred Jackson	Buf	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Alfred Morris	Wsh	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	100.0%
Adrian Peterson	Min	100.0%	RB	3	3	1	0	0	66.7%
DeAngelo Williams	Car	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	66.7%
Chris Johnson	Ten	100.0%	RB	3	3	0	0	0	33.3%
Joique Bell	Det	66.7%	RB	3	2	2	0	0	100.0%
Bilal Powell	NYJ	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	100.0%
Jimmy Graham	NO	66.7%	TE	3	2	2	0	0	66.7%
Matt Prater	Den	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Aaron Rodgers	GB	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Michael Vick	Phi	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Philip Rivers	SD	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Matt Schaub	Hou	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
DeSean Jackson	Phi	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Eddie Royal	SD	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Andrew Luck	Ind	66.7%	QB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Victor Cruz	NYG	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Randall Cobb	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Brandon Marshall	Chi	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Dan Bailey	Dal	66.7%	K	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Arian Foster	Hou	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Garrett Hartley	NO	66.7%	K	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Jermichael Finley	GB	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Lions D/ST	Det	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Trent Richardson	Ind	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Demaryius Thomas	Den	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
A.J. Green	Cin	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Drew Brees	NO	66.7%	QB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Chiefs D/ST	KC	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Cowboys D/ST	Dal	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Calvin Johnson	Det	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Steve Johnson	Buf	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Wes Welker	Den	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Brian Hartline	Mia	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Caleb Sturgis	Mia	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Jason Witten	Dal	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Giovani Bernard	Cin	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	66.7%	K	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Bears D/ST	Chi	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
DeMarco Murray	Dal	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Dan Carpenter	Buf	66.7%	K	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw	Ind	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	0	0	66.7%
Frank Gore	SF	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Antonio Gates	SD	66.7%	TE	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Bernard Pierce	Bal	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	66.7%
Ted Ginn	Car	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Bengals D/ST	Cin	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	0	1	0	66.7%
Jason Snelling	Atl	66.7%	RB	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Justin Tucker	Bal	66.7%	K	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Ravens D/ST	Bal	66.7%	D/ST	3	2	1	1	0	66.7%
Marlon Brown	Bal	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Da'Rel Scott	NYG	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Dez Bryant	Dal	66.7%	WR	3	2	1	1	0	33.3%
James Jones	GB	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Daniel Thomas	Mia	66.7%	RB	3	2	0	0	0	33.3%
Denarius Moore	Oak	66.7%	WR	3	2	0	1	0	33.3%
Julian Edelman	NE	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Andre Johnson	Hou	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Brandon Myers	NYG	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Daryl Richardson	StL	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	0	1	66.7%
Pierre Garcon	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	0	0	66.7%
Jared Cook	StL	33.3%	TE	3	1	1	1	0	66.7%
Greg Olsen	Car	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	0	0	66.7%
Torrey Smith	Bal	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	66.7%
Cecil Shorts	Jac	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	66.7%
Eric Decker	Den	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	66.7%
Titans D/ST	Ten	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Jay Feely	Ari	33.3%	K	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Alex Henery	Phi	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Dolphins D/ST	Mia	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Doug Baldwin	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
EJ Manuel	Buf	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Tony Romo	Dal	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Russell Wilson	Sea	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Jake Locker	Ten	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Christian Ponder	Min	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Geno Smith	NYJ	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Robbie Gould	Chi	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Browns D/ST	Cle	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Saints D/ST	NO	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Matt Bryant	Atl	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Mason Crosby	GB	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Antonio Brown	Pit	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Nate Burleson	Det	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Colts D/ST	Ind	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Donnie Avery	KC	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ryan Succop	KC	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Nate Washington	Ten	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Stephen Hill	NYJ	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Panthers D/ST	Car	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Marcel Reece	Oak	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Golden Tate	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Zach Miller	Sea	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Shaun Suisham	Pit	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Scott Chandler	Buf	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Sidney Rice	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Ronnie Hillman	Den	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Jason Avant	Phi	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Brandon LaFell	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Brandon Bolden	NE	33.3%	RB	1	1	0	0	2	33.3%
Josh Gordon	Cle	33.3%	WR	1	1	1	0	2	33.3%
Gavin Escobar	Dal	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Johnathan Franklin	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Luke Willson	Sea	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Packers D/ST	GB	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Sam Bradford	StL	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Matt Ryan	Atl	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Robert Griffin III	Wsh	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Eli Manning	NYG	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Alex Smith	KC	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Colin Kaepernick	SF	33.3%	QB	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Marshawn Lynch	Sea	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Jay Cutler	Chi	33.3%	QB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Reggie Bush	Det	33.3%	RB	2	1	1	0	1	33.3%
Martellus Bennett	Chi	33.3%	TE	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Knowshon Moreno	Den	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	0	0	33.3%
Anquan Boldin	SF	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Owen Daniels	Hou	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
Vernon Davis	SF	33.3%	TE	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Broncos D/ST	Den	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Buccaneers D/ST	TB	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Nick Novak	SD	33.3%	K	3	1	1	2	0	33.3%
James Starks	GB	33.3%	RB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Vincent Jackson	TB	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Charles Clay	Mia	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Patriots D/ST	NE	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Greg Zuerlein	StL	33.3%	K	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Rashard Mendenhall	Ari	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Blair Walsh	Min	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Tavon Austin	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Reggie Wayne	Ind	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Josh Brown	NYG	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Bills D/ST	Buf	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Texans D/ST	Hou	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Jerome Simpson	Min	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Marques Colston	NO	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Mike Wallace	Mia	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Jets D/ST	NYJ	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Rob Bironas	Ten	33.3%	K	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Steven Jackson	Atl	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	0	1	33.3%
Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Nick Folk	NYJ	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Steve Smith	Car	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ryan Mathews	SD	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Raiders D/ST	Oak	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Shane Vereen	NE	33.3%	RB	1	1	1	0	2	33.3%
Vikings D/ST	Min	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Darren Sproles	NO	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
C.J. Spiller	Buf	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Kellen Winslow	NYJ	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Austin Pettis	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Ben Tate	Hou	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Malcom Floyd	SD	33.3%	WR	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Ray Rice	Bal	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Andre Ellington	Ari	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
49ers D/ST	SF	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
David Akers	Det	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Eddie Lacy	GB	33.3%	RB	2	1	0	1	1	33.3%
Phil Dawson	SF	33.3%	K	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Kyle Rudolph	Min	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Chris Givens	StL	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Graham Gano	Car	33.3%	K	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Kendall Wright	Ten	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Lamar Miller	Mia	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Coby Fleener	Ind	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Danny Amendola	NE	33.3%	WR	1	1	0	0	2	33.3%
Eagles D/ST	Phi	33.3%	D/ST	3	1	0	1	0	33.3%
Vonta Leach	Bal	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	2	0	33.3%
Santana Moss	Wsh	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	0	0	33.3%
Cam Newton	Car	33.3%	QB	3	1	1	1	0	33.3%
Garrett Graham	Hou	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Mike Williams	TB	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Rueben Randle	NYG	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Brent Celek	Phi	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Jermaine Kearse	Sea	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Jackie Battle	Ten	33.3%	RB	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Clay Harbor	Jac	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Joseph Fauria	Det	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	1	0	0.0%
Marvin Jones	Cin	33.3%	WR	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Robert Meachem	NO	33.3%	WR	2	1	0	1	1	0.0%
Levine Toilolo	Atl	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Dion Sims	Mia	33.3%	TE	3	1	0	2	0	0.0%
Pierre Thomas	NO	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	0	0	66.7%
Danny Woodhead	SD	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	1	0	66.7%
Andre Roberts	Ari	0.0%	WR	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Dallas Clark	Bal	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	1	0	33.3%
Delanie Walker	Ten	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	0	0	33.3%
Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	0.0%	RB	3	0	0	1	0	33.3%
Isaiah Pead	StL	0.0%	RB	2	0	0	1	1	33.3%
Logan Paulsen	Wsh	0.0%	TE	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Miles Austin	Dal	0.0%	WR	3	0	0	2	0	33.3%
Cardinals D/ST	Ari	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Jaguars D/ST	Jac	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Rams D/ST	StL	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Falcons D/ST	Atl	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	2	0	0.0%
Redskins D/ST	Wsh	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	1	0	0.0%
Steelers D/ST	Pit	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	1	0	0.0%
Giants D/ST	NYG	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	3	0	0.0%
Chargers D/ST	SD	0.0%	D/ST	3	0	0	3	0	0.0%

HacheMan · Sep 24, 2013

[h=1]Time to cut struggling players?[/h][h=3]David Wilson among players off to slow starts in fantasy football in 2013[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

For many fantasy owners, the biggest reaction they had in Week 3 was cringing after hearing about the 16 points (in ESPN standard scoring) Green Bay Packers running backJohnathan Franklin put up. Franklin was a popular sleeper pick early in the fantasy draft season, but he fell out of favor once he dropped to third on the Packers' running back depth chart.
This caused nearly all fantasy owners to drop Franklin from their rosters -- he currently has a 1.6 percent ownership rate in ESPN leagues -- but given his skill fit with the Packers' system, those owners are now second-guessing if they should have kept him on the roster with the hope that he would turn things around as the season progresses.
This type of second-guessing happens even more often when it comes to starting-caliber players who are falling short of expectations. This week's Fantasy Foresight article aims to help with this situation by reviewing four players fantasy owners might be thinking of giving up on, but whose metrics and matchups indicate that they should be kept.

Wilson

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David Wilson, RB, New York Giants
There probably isn't a more disappointing fantasy running back than Wilson. He had the 17th-highest ADP among running backs (34.2), yet after three games, his owners have all of one fantasy point to show for what was on average a fourth-round pick.
A major factor in Wilson's scoring total is the Giants' 27.9 percent total in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its rushers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That is a more than 20 percent drop from the team's 48.8 percent GBR in 2012, which ranked sixth in the league.
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Some of that drop can be blamed on injuries, but some of it can also be placed on having played two teams that currently rank 1-2 in rushing yards allowed (Denver and Dallas) and another that ranks in the top 10 (Carolina).
That will not be the case down the road, as eight of the Giants' future opponents currently rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed. Add to that Wilson's solid 7.3-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges a rusher's productivity on plays with good blocking, and it means better days look to be in his future.
Fantasy owners who have Wilson on the roster should not trade low, and those who don't own Wilson should aim to make him a high-priority buy-low candidate if he is available.

Nicks

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Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Wilson isn't the only Giants player to be a fantasy football letdown. Nicks ranked 18th in wide receiver ADP (55.0) and gave his team owners a good start with 11 points in Week 1, but has posted only eight points total in his next two starts, including a goose egg against Carolina.
Like Wilson, Nicks' turnaround will stem in part from the Giants getting their offensive line in order so that Eli Manning has enough time to throw, but Nicks' fantasy value will also shoot upward because of an incredibly favorable set of cornerback matchups ahead.
From Weeks 4 to 17, Nicks has seven cornerbacks who currently grade out with a green rating. A green rating indicates they are suspect in coverage and thus give the wide receiver a significant amount of upside potential. Most receivers are lucky if they get green-rated matchups in one-third of their matchups, and Nicks has them in half of his remaining slate, including a stretch from Weeks 8 to 14 when he has five green-rated cornerbacks in six games (the Giants' bye is also within this time frame).
This kind of upside is very hard to come by and indicates that Nicks should be another Big Blue buy-low candidate in those leagues where his fantasy owners are thinking of giving up on him.

Bowe

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Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are in great shape as a team with a 3-0 record, but the scoreboard victories have not translated into very good numbers for Bowe. He currently isn't even the highest-scoring wide receiver on his own team (Donnie Averytops that list with 24 points).
This isn't what fantasy owners had in mind when they made Bowe No. 21 on the wide receiver ADP chart and took him higher than Jordy Nelson (46 fantasy points),Antonio Brown (43), Pierre Garcon (34) or DeSean Jackson (47).
A big part of Bowe's problems stem from the fact that, according to ESPN Stats & Information, no team has thrown fewer vertical passes (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) than Kansas City. Their 17 vertical attempts are seven fewer than the next team on the list (Dallas), and that total is just less than half of the league average in this category (35 attempts).
Having noted this issue, Bowe may be primed for a short-term turnaround because he faces green-rated cornerbacks in Weeks 4 through 6. His long-term prospects might not be very good, given how downfield-averse the Chiefs offense has been this season. But his fantasy owners would do well to see if he rebounds over the next three weeks and then aim to trade him high, as his schedule currently has only one more green-rated cornerback after Week 6.

Palmer

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Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
There are many reasons to think that Palmer is on the verge of becoming the next Franklin. His fantasy totals so far this season have been less than notable (31 points in three games), yet he has a list of positives that many other QB2s will struggle to equal.
Palmer plays in a Bruce Arians vertical-based passing game that has thus far had him throw 47 vertical passes, a total that, according to ESPN Stats & Information, ranks second only to Drew Brees (51) in that category. He has the benefit of throwing many of those passes to Larry Fitzgerald and also has a favorable upcoming schedule. The Cardinals are due to face Tampa Bay in Week 4 (11.89 vertical YPA allowed, ranked 24th), Carolina in Week 5 (a team with maybe the most banged-up secondary in the NFL) and Atlanta in Week 8 (13.15 vertical YPA allowed, ranked 26th).
He isn't the type of quarterback a fantasy team wants to put in the active lineup every week, but someone of Palmer's value should be owned in more than 14.5 percent of all ESPN leagues and should certainly be owned in every league that places extra value on quarterback production (e.g. six-point passing TD leagues, two quarterback leagues, leagues with 14 or more teams, etc.).

HacheMan · Sep 25, 2013

[h=1]Ranks reaction: Assessing the Bucs offense[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
One might consider the news of a [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/FONT] quarterback change from veteran[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Josh Freeman[/FONT] to rookie [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mike Glennon[/FONT] as potentially devastating to the value of top-five running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Doug Martin[/FONT] and top-10 wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Vincent Jackson[/FONT], but being the optimistic soul I am, I think it's actually a good thing. Hey, at least it offers hope! Freeman had played miserably this month and many months since his inspiring 2010 season, throwing 42 interceptions in 34 games and making one poor decision after another. When an unknown quarterback takes over, fantasy owners often panic about the effect on his weapons, but there's ample proof that that's an overrated theme.

After all, check out what [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cleveland Browns[/FONT] quarterback [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Brian Hoyer[/FONT] did just a few days ago. Few people even knew who he was, but would wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Josh Gordon[/FONT] have been able to produce monster numbers with [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Brandon Weeden[/FONT] at the helm? It's not necessarily a recommendation of the quarterback -- statistically or in a supporting role -- to continue trusting those who score the all-important touchdowns and rack up the fantasy numbers. Plus -- as I often say when I refer to [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Arizona Cardinals[/FONT] quarterback [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Carson Palmer[/FONT] and his stud receiver, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Larry Fitzgerald[/FONT], and before him the likes of [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Denarius Moore[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chad Johnson[/FONT] -- the receivers don't get charged with the interceptions. Don't consider Hoyer or Glennon reasonable fantasy options in 10- or 12-team leagues from the get-go, but don't totally dismiss the possibility that they will get there, and don't automatically downgrade their weapons.

Ultimately, the erratic Freeman was not among my top 25 quarterbacks for this week's matchup against Palmer's Cardinals anyway, and neither is Glennon, the tall, strong-armed third-rounder from North Carolina State who will take over for the rest of the season. Freeman's work is done, fortunately. Glennon doesn't need to be Dan Fouts to keep Martin, Jackson and fellow wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mike Williams[/FONT]relevant, but then again, it's hard to imagine anyone making poorer decisions than the physically capable Freeman was. Martin remains safely among my top 10 running backs. He has managed to generate double-digit fantasy points in all three games despite his team failing to reach 20 actual points in a contest. Martin is getting a ton of touches -- he's first in rushing attempts, second in rushing yards and has 13 receiving targets -- and that should continue.

Jackson (ribs) and Williams (leg) are a bit beaten up physically and questionable for Sunday's game, but both are expected to play. Well, I ranked each the way I normally would, which is to say Jackson is a borderline top-10 WR option, and the underrated Williams belongs in the top 30. Why change now? Jackson led the league in average yards at the catch a season ago, just like in his [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Diego Chargers[/FONT] days, and Glennon shouldn't have a deleterious effect there. Glennon has yet to throw an NFL pass, and nobody will credit him for being mobile -- Freeman provided some rushing numbers previously -- but Jackson is good enough to make plays regardless of who's throwing him the ball. Plus, what if Glennon is really good? Everyone who dismissed [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Russell Wilson[/FONT] a year ago would like a do-over. I got laughed at for projecting [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Terrelle Pryor[/FONT] in my top 20 last month. And look at Hoyer so far! Hey, I like this quarterback change for the Buccaneers, and for fantasy as well.

Quarterback: Remember the bye weeks! Two of the top five quarterbacks are off in Week 4, meaning that your opponent might be starting a Pryor, Hoyer or Glennon. That might not be such great news for you after all! … Pryor (concussion) is questionable for this week, though I love the matchup. If Matt Flynn starts, he would not make my top 25 quarterbacks. … Don't assume whoever faces the New Orleans Saints will simply produce top numbers. It hasn't happened yet. I like the Miami Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill, but he didn't make my top 20.

Running back: People are getting a bit too down on Denver Broncos optionKnowshon Moreno for his poor statistical outing Monday. Yes, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman played better, but the victory was never in doubt. Moreno didn't need to play much. He's still their top guy, and he's a top-20 RB in my book. … I'm not overrating how average Darren Sproles has looked so far, but I'm not too concerned about his tough matchup with Miami. Still top-20 for me. … Ahmad Bradshaw owners must be really confused at this point. We all ranked Trent Richardson as a starter, and three of us consider Bradshaw a lesser play than Ryan Mathews, just to add some perspective. Hey, most people wanted to cut Bradshaw after the trade. He's not a bad flex. … I haven't totally given up on Daryl Richardson, but I liked 36 other running backs better this week. One of them was his teammate Isaiah Pead. Hey, Richardson had opportunities. I also expect a spirited return to dominant defense for the embarrassed 49ers.

Wide receiver: I also like Anquan Boldin to bounce back against the Rams. Top-20 WR for me. … Josh Gordon is a borderline top-20 wide receiver this week, certainly with upside. I just don't like the Ohio matchup for him. … The Redskins can't defend. It's why Denarius Moore got a nice bump from me this week, and I could see using Rod Streater in a deep league. … Lot of questions about Julian Edelman's value should tight end Rob Gronkowskisuit up. I don't think it hurts Edelman one bit. I think when Danny Amendola comes back, it does. … Yes, I ranked three Broncos wide receivers among my top 10. Why try to guess which one won't have a big game? All three should against the Eagles. … We all seem to like Torrey Smith of the Ravens more than usual for this week at Buffalo. I couldn't go as high as No. 12, though. Smith does seem on the verge of a really big performance, having reached 85-plus yards in all three games.

HacheMan · Sep 25, 2013

[h=1]Targets, other data offer hints[/h][h=3]Assessing hot starts from Hartline, Thompkins, Hopkins and others[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Ken Daube[/FONT] | Special to ESPN.com

Changes in reality should drive changes in perception. For example, if you own Stevan Ridley, you are firmly aware of the drastic difference in his productivity last year versus this year. You are likely looking to move him to someone who hasn't changed their perception of Ridley. But are you making those adjustments when evaluating your weekly starters against opposing team defenses?

Let's start with a rather simple question. Which Team Defense has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season? If you haven't been paying close attention, the answer may surprise you. It's the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are allowing an average of 24 fantasy points per game to running backs. That's more than the "awful" run defenses of the Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. This week the 49ers play the St. Louis Rams. While Daryl Richardson might be a game-time decision, starting him (or Isaiah Pead if Richardson is inactive) is not, by any means, a bad decision.

Conversely, the New Orleans Saints defense is very much improved versus last year. For those of you that forgot, the Saints were thrown into disarray when head coach Sean Payton was suspended for all of 2012. This season, Rob Ryan is their new defensive coordinator and the unit he oversees currently places the Saints as third-best against fantasy quarterbacks, fifth-best against fantasy wide receivers and seventh-best against fantasy tight ends. Last season, they gave up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers and ninth-most against tight ends. If you still view the Saints as a desirable matchup for your starters, then you aren't matching your perception with this year's reality.

On target
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If he had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.

Below, you'll see all the players who are averaging eight or more targets through Week 3 and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 3.

Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats and Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is, a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball, and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

Fantasy insights based on data through Week 3
Week 3 Targets Report
Player Targets* RZ
Josh Gordon 18.0 1
Danny Amendola 14.0 0
Cecil Shorts 12.7 2
Jimmy Graham 12.3 4
A.J. Green 11.7 1
Julian Edelman 11.3 1
Andre Johnson 11.3 2
Julio Jones 11.0 0
Pierre Garcon 10.7 2
DeSean Jackson 10.3 1
Randall Cobb 10.0 1
Vincent Jackson 10.0 0
E. Sanders 10.0 1
Aaron Dobson 10.0 2
Shane Vereen 10.0 0
Anquan Boldin 9.7 0
Torrey Smith 9.7 0
Calvin Johnson 9.7 5
Steve Johnson 9.7 1
Eric Decker 9.7 1
Davone Bess 9.3 1
Antonio Brown 9.3 1
K. Thompkins 9.3 3
Brian Hartline 9.3 1
Wes Welker 9.0 2
Victor Cruz 9.0 0
Brandon Marshall 9.0 0
Greg Little 9.0 2
Steve Smith 9.0 1
D. Thomas 9.0 1
DeAndre Hopkins 8.7 0
Dez Bryant 8.7 2
Larry Fitzgerald 8.7 0
Jordan Cameron 8.7 4
Tavon Austin 8.7 0
Jamaal Charles 8.0 0
Santana Moss 8.0 0
Brandon Myers 8.0 0
*Target data presented here is average number of targets through first three weeks.
• In case you missed it, the following New England Patriots are averaging more than eight targets per game: Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. It's expected that TE Rob Gronkowski will return this weekend, which will shake everything up. Look for Gronkowski and Amendola/Edelman to be the top options going forward. Don't be too encouraged by Thompkins' touchdowns this past Sunday, as he only caught three of his seven targets and his 41 yards were the lowest total he posted so far this year.

• Last season, Brian Hartline frustrated fantasy owners with erratic production, but this season he's a reliable option. He's been targeted at least six times each game, and his 11 receiving first downs rank 25th in the league.

• Tavon Austin is currently being overrated based on his production. Austin is owned in 100 percent of ESPN.com leagues, but ranks behind Donnie Avery (owned in 4.6 percent), Kenbrell Thompkins (35.4), Stephen Hill (2.8) and Leonard Hankerson (8.2) in fantasy points scored. If you own Austin, move him now before people realize that the only real comparison between Austin and the player he was compared to on draft day, Percy Harvin, is that neither is helping their teams win.

• While the Pittsburgh Steelers might not challenge the Baltimore Ravens or Cincinnati Bengals for the AFC North crown this season, their offensive line played well enough in the second half of Sunday's game to make both Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders usable in fantasy again. They will remain that way as long as Ben Roethlisberger stays upright, which is no sure thing.

• If you are sitting with two high-end tight ends and need a receiver, the guy I would target is DeAndre Hopkins. Andre Johnson seems to be getting more frail, and Hopkins would not only have the opportunity if Johnson misses any sort of time, he also has the skills to be a clear number one receiver.

• Calvin Johnson has been targeted eight times in the red zone through three weeks, after receiving only 17 such targets for all of last season. While it seems impossible that the best receiver on earth could actually improve over last season's record-breaking season, an increase in red zone usage would certainly be one way in which this could happen in the fantasy football realm.

• Do not sell Hakeem Nicks or Rueben Randle, as tempting as the thought may be. Their performances Sunday were horrible, but the Giants' passing attack has one the most generous schedules remaining. From Week 5 through the end of the season, the Giants face only one team currently in the upper half of defenses in terms of passing yards allowed.

Big plays and up close
There were 11 NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each. They were: DeMarco Murray (5), DeAngelo Williams (4), Bilal Powell (4), Pierre Thomas (3), Michael Vick (3), LeSean McCoy (3), Joique Bell (3), Jamaal Charles (3), Jake Locker (3), Frank Gore (3) and David Wilson (3).

Meanwhile, there were 12 players with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer. That group consists of Ahmad Bradshaw (3), Murray (3), Charles (3), Marshawn Lynch (3), Michael Bush (3), Bernard Pierce (2), Darren McFadden (2), Giovani Bernard (2), James Starks (2), Maurice Jones-Drew (2), Mike Tolbert (2) and Ronnie Brown (2). Of this group, only Lynch and Starks failed to score on at least one of these attempts.

Many will point to domination against the Rams as an indication that Murray may be on the verge of living up to the hype he earned not so long ago. I'd advise against that. While Murray gained 175 yards on the ground, only 26 of those yards came after contact. Of the 30 games this season in which a running back gained at least 85 yards via the rush, Murray's 1 yard after contact-per-carry average was the fifth-worst rate of the season. Simply put, Murray's domination was a result of great blocking, and not primarily attributable to Murray himself.

Similar to Murray, Powell dominated because of great blocking. Powell gained only .93 yards per carry after contact, which is the second-worst performance among backs who have gained at least 85 yards in a game this season. That being said, the loss of Chris Ivory will likely yield additional carries for Powell going forward, so he makes an intriguing option as a flex play until Ivory returns.

Through three weeks, the Tennessee Titans seem to be utilizing Locker in the manner the franchise used to utilize Steve McNair. Comparing Locker to the former MVP isn't really fair, but if this trend becomes the norm, then Locker will be a viable option in most fantasy formats.

Wilson's three rushes of 10 yards or more are more indicative of his projected performance going into this season than what was delivered during the first two weeks. Last season, Wilson broke a run of 10 or more yards on one of every six carries. Before Week 3, Wilson only had one such run in 14 attempts.

Bell has earned a greater role in the Lions' offense and not just because of his performance last week subbing in for the injured Reggie Bush. While most are bumping Ryan Broyles in their rankings due to Nate Burleson's accident this week, don't overlook the idea that we'll continue to see a lot of Bell even when Bush is back in the active lineup.

Based on their year-to-date production, it's only a matter of time before Bernard displaces BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the primary running back for the Bengals. Bernard has top-10 running back potential from the point that the Law Firm gets removed as the starting running back for the Bengals.

Red zone play calling chart
Below is a listing of the percentage of run and pass plays each team has executed so far this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play where the quarterback attempts a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as rush plays.

Red Zone Play Calling Chart
Team Snaps Pass Rush
Green Bay Packers 42 52% 48%
New England Patriots 35 60% 40%
Detroit Lions 34 59% 41%
Atlanta Falcons 32 66% 34%
Seattle Seahawks 31 39% 61%
Chicago Bears 30 53% 47%
Minnesota Vikings 30 50% 50%
New Orleans Saints 30 63% 37%
St. Louis Rams 29 76% 24%
Dallas Cowboys 28 57% 43%
San Diego Chargers 27 74% 26%
Oakland Raiders 27 48% 52%
Houston Texans 26 62% 38%
Kansas City Chiefs 26 35% 65%
Baltimore Ravens 26 50% 50%
Carolina Panthers 26 46% 54%
Indianapolis Colts 24 42% 58%
Tennessee Titans 24 29% 71%
Philadelphia Eagles 24 46% 54%
Denver Broncos 23 70% 30%
New York Giants 23 70% 30%
Jacksonville Jaguars 22 73% 27%
Washington Redskins 21 81% 19%
San Francisco 49ers 21 43% 57%
Cleveland Browns 21 86% 14%
Buffalo Bills 21 38% 62%
Cincinnati Bengals 17 41% 59%
New York Jets 16 50% 50%
Arizona Cardinals 15 67% 33%
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 77% 23%
Miami Dolphins 12 50% 50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 75% 25%
In closing, some shameless self-promotion.

HacheMan · Sep 25, 2013

[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Arian Foster and Calvin Johnson likely to hit pay dirt in Week 4?[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

tatheads love a good sample size.
With three weeks of the 2013 NFL season in the books, we're starting to get one. Wednesday, we'll be taking our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns.
If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receivingoTD. The oTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
Three weeks in, oTD tells us that DeMarco Murray and Wes Welker are doing their part to power fantasy owners to a playoff berth.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">[h=3]Rushing[/h]
[h=4]Rushing oTD leaders after Week 3[/h]

Rk	Rusher	Att	TD	2013oTD	Wk 3oTD
1	Arian Foster	50	1	2.6	0.3
2	DeMarco Murray	58	1	2.4	1.7
3	Jamaal Charles	52	2	2.3	1.6
4	Darren McFadden	47	2	2.1	1.1
5	Marshawn Lynch	62	2	2.0	1.1
6	Bernard Pierce	52	2	2.0	1.4
7	Adrian Peterson	68	3	2.0	0.9
8	Ahmad Bradshaw	41	2	1.9	1.1
9	Matt Forte	54	2	1.8	0.3
10	Michael Bush	16	1	1.7	1.7
11	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	46	2	1.7	0.4
12	Brandon Jacobs	10	1	1.4	0.0
13	Maurice Jones-Drew	44	1	1.3	0.8
14	Joique Bell	34	3	1.3	0.3
15	Mark Ingram	17	0	1.3	0.0
16	Frank Gore	41	1	1.2	0.0
17	Ronnie Brown	13	1	1.2	1.1
18	Trent Richardson	44	1	1.1	0.6
19	Chris Johnson	69	0	1.0	0.2
20	Reggie Bush	31	0	1.0	0.0
21	Jacquizz Rodgers	31	0	1.0	0.7
22	Pierre Thomas	25	0	0.9	0.5
23	James Starks	34	1	0.9	0.6
24	LeSean McCoy	62	2	0.9	0.1
25	Rashad Jennings	6	0	0.9	0.0
26	Daniel Thomas	21	2	0.9	0.2
27	Mike Tolbert	19	1	0.8	0.7
28	Rashard Mendenhall	40	1	0.8	0.0
29	Jackie Battle	18	1	0.8	0.4
30	Ray Rice	25	1	0.8	0.0
31	David Wilson	25	0	0.8	0.0
32	Fred Jackson	32	1	0.7	0.3
33	Giovani Bernard	22	2	0.7	0.5
34	Shane Vereen	14	0	0.7	0.0
35	Johnathan Franklin	13	1	0.7	0.7
36	Ronnie Hillman	14	1	0.7	0.6
37	Eddie Lacy	15	1	0.6	0.0
38	DeAngelo Williams	58	0	0.6	0.2
39	Montee Ball	31	0	0.6	0.0
40	Jason Snelling	13	1	0.6	0.5

Michael Bush was the big winner in Week 3. The Chicago Bears' goal-line back was handed the ball just eight times, but three came on the opponent's 1-yard line. Bush converted only one of the tries, but is a strong 11-of-17 (64.7 percent) from 1 yard out over the past five years. Teammate Matt Forte, meanwhile, ranks ninth in rushing oTD on the season. In Week 3, he converted from 5 yards out -- his only attempt inside Pittsburgh's 10-yard line. Unfortunately for Forte owners, coach Marc Trestman has named Bush the team's goal-line back going forward. He'll dominate the carries inside the 5.
Powered by 26 carries, Murray added 1.7 to his oTD this week. Murray didn't have a carry from the 1-yard line, but did have three from 2 yards out, converting one into a score. Murray is averaging two carries per game inside the opponent's 10-yard line this season.
Ray Rice was out with an injury in Week 3, which allowed Bernard Pierce to jump to sixth overall in rushing oTD. The second-year back scored on one of two tries from the Texans' 1-yard line. He's now been asked to handle eight carries inside the opponent's 15-yard line this year.
The cream tends to rise and we see an example of that with Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles,Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson joining Murray and Pierce inside our overall top 7. Foster kept his overall oTD lead despite only one carry inside Baltimore's 10-yard line in Week 3. Charles wins this week's award for most bizarre stat, having carried the ball one time each from the opponent's 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, 7- and 8-yard line this year. He converted on two of the carries. McFadden is 2-of-3 on tries from the opponent's 1-yard line this season. Lynch has scored only once inside the 10 this year, but he's had seven tries at it. Peterson is 2-of-3 on carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line, and has accrued five additional carries inside the 10.
A popular breakout candidate, Lamar Miller has the league's lowest oTD mark for a player with at least 30 carries this season. Miami's lead back hasn't attempted a single carry inside the opponent's 10-yard line. His only score came from exactly 10 yards out. Daniel Thomas(two) and Charles Clay (one) have accounted for Miami's three tries inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Remember that receiving oTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to properly weight throws into the end zone.
[h=4]Receiving oTD leaders after Week 3[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	TD	2013oTD	Wk 3oTD
1	Calvin Johnson	29	3	2.9	1.5
2	Martellus Bennett	19	3	2.7	0.8
3	Wes Welker	27	4	2.5	0.8
4	A.J. Green	33	3	2.4	0.4
5	Kenbrell Thompkins	27	2	2.3	0.7
6	Jimmy Graham	37	4	2.1	1.6
7	Steve Johnson	28	2	2.0	0.7
8	Michael Floyd	20	0	2.0	0.1
9	Denarius Moore	19	2	2.0	1.1
10	Pierre Garcon	34	1	1.9	0.8
11	Julian Edelman	34	2	1.8	0.1
12	Victor Cruz	26	3	1.8	0.1
13	Eddie Royal	16	5	1.8	0.0
14	Jason Witten	23	2	1.7	0.5
15	Larry Fitzgerald	25	2	1.7	0.1
16	Tony Gonzalez	18	1	1.7	0.4
17	Mike Williams	23	1	1.7	0.8
18	Dez Bryant	26	2	1.6	0.6
19	Vernon Davis	14	2	1.6	0.0
20	Brandon Myers	23	1	1.6	0.0
21	Austin Pettis	20	2	1.6	0.8
22	DeAndre Hopkins	26	1	1.6	0.1
23	Jordy Nelson	24	3	1.6	0.3
24	Randall Cobb	26	2	1.5	0.5
25	Joseph Fauria	6	2	1.5	1.1
26	Greg Olsen	22	1	1.4	0.7
27	Jordan Cameron	25	3	1.4	0.8
28	Antonio Brown	27	2	1.4	1.3
29	DeSean Jackson	28	2	1.4	0.4
30	Brandon Marshall	28	2	1.4	0.0
31	T.Y. Hilton	20	0	1.4	0.4
32	Owen Daniels	20	3	1.3	0.3
33	Cecil Shorts	39	0	1.3	1.1
34	Ted Ginn	12	2	1.3	0.8
35	Harry Douglas	15	0	1.3	0.5
36	Aaron Dobson	20	1	1.3	0.8
37	Demaryius Thomas	27	2	1.3	0.5
38	Rueben Randle	20	0	1.3	0.4
39	Reggie Wayne	23	1	1.3	0.1
40	Steve Smith	23	1	1.3	0.5

During the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Calvin Johnson was targeted while inside the opponent's end zone a whopping 49 times. He caught a healthy 20 for touchdowns. Since that point, Johnson has converted only 3 of 21 (14.3 percent) end zone targets. That includes a 1-of-5 (20 percent) mark in 2013. Having now been targeted nine times while within 8 yards of pay dirt this season, Johnson leads the NFL in receiving oTD. That's the good news. The bad news is that he's not converting at a high enough rate.
Of the top 30 players in receiving oTD this season, only one has failed to score a touchdown: Michael Floyd. We talked about Floyd at length last week, so I won't get too in depth here except to, once again, recommend trying to acquire him via trade. Floyd has been targeted while inside the opponent's end zone a promising three times this season.
Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are fairly large targets, each standing at least 6-foot-3. Wes Welker, meanwhile, is 5-9. Yet it's Welker who leads the team and is top 3 in the NFL in receiving oTD. Welker has a success rate of 75 percent on four targets inside the opponent's end zone. His only other score came after a short catch-and-run from the opponent's 2-yard line. Welker has seen eight targets while within 5 yards of pay dirt, which is only two shy of his total on 191 targets in 2012.
No player has racked up more end zone targets than Martellus Bennett this season. Second overall in receiving oTD, Bennett has converted three of his six targets while in the end zone. Although he's seen just 19 targets on the year, Bennett is a strong candidate to sustain a high touchdown rate.
Lions backup tight end Joseph Fauria is a name worth monitoring. The undrafted rookie has managed just six targets in limited action this year, but four of the six have come while in the confines of the end zone and he's caught two for scores. With Nate Burleson out indefinitely due to injury, Fauria's role figures to increase.
No wide receiver with 20-plus targets has a lower receiving oTD than Vincent Jackson this season. The Bucs' No. 1 receiver is averaging a massive 10 targets per game, but only one has come while inside the opponent's 20. Having averaged nearly one end zone target per game in 2012, he's a safe bet for regression.
</offer>

HacheMan · Sep 25, 2013

[h=1]Best/Worst Week 4 matchups[/h][h=3]Why Colin Kaepernick, Jason Witten and others are strong starts[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Scott Kacsmar[/FONT] | Football Outsiders

For the first time in NFL history, the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers are all 0-3 to start the season. This has caused many fans to abandon all hope for 2013, but what about the fantasy assets these teams had?
Giants quarterback Eli Manning leads the league with eight interceptions and was sacked six times on his first 10 drop-backs against the Panthers in a 38-0 defeat. Wide receiverHakeem Nicks caught zero passes.
During the sack-fest, did you notice running back David Wilson's 17-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a penalty? That skill is the reason Wilson was a high draft pick and fantasy hopeful this season, but things have not worked out, as he still has more fumbles (two) than scores (zero). The Giants are dead last in rushing with 133 yards -- the fifth-worst start by an offense since 1950. It does not look likely that Wilson will produce much this season. Trade him if you can.
Washington's offense was efficient last season, but so far it's only been able to put up volume -- more about yards than touchdowns, as Alfred Morris owners can attest -- and that often comes from a big deficit. Robert Griffin III has thrown for 329, 320 and 326 yards, respectively, this season. Last week was just the third time he did not throw or rush for a touchdown.
Pierre Garcon is benefiting from the increase in pass attempts, but he continues to tell the media that Griffin is not fully healthy this year. Any day now, expect Griffin's passing yards to fall and his rushing yards to go up a little.
Pittsburgh's offensive struggles are well-documented this season, but you should grab running back Le'Veon Bell from the waiver wire, as he is expected to make his regular-season debut in London. The Steelers are dying for a running back to whom they can give the ball and not fear there will be a fumble. Tight end Heath Miller also could be a worthwhile addition as a backup tight end and perhaps a starter as he gets his groove back. After one game, he's averaging as many fantasy points per game as Cincinnati'sJermaine Gresham.
What about the defense? The Steelers are the sixth team in NFL history to have zero takeaways through the first three games. As one of the popular fantasy defenses, that lack of big plays -- keep in mind the Steelers have only three sacks (tied with the Giants for the fewest) -- means a lack of fantasy points. Of the previous five defenses to have no takeaways in three games, they finished the season with an average of 21.8 takeaways. You may want to hang on this week for the Minnesota matchup (Christian Ponder has seven giveaways), but with a Week 5 bye, it'll be time to find your next defense.
Week 4 begins the bye weeks, with Green Bay and Carolina off. With that in mind, here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 4.
<offer></offer>

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h][h=4]Players with Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin	+5
QB	DAL	Tony Romo	+4
QB	OAK	Terrelle Pryor	+4
QB	SF	Colin Kaepernick	+4
RB	DAL	DeMarco Murray	+2
RB	OAK	Darren McFadden	+2
RB	JAC	Maurice Jones-Drew	+2
RB	MIA	Lamar Miller	+2
RB	NO	Darren Sproles	+2
RB	NO	Pierre Thomas	+1
RB	MIA	Daniel Thomas	+1
WR	DEN	Eric Decker	+1
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	+1
TE	SF	Vernon Davis	+1
TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	+1
RB	IND	Ahmad Bradshaw	+1
QB	NE	Tom Brady	+1
WR	SF	Anquan Boldin	+1
RB	IND	Trent Richardson	+1
TE	DAL	Jason Witten	+1
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	+1
RB	BAL	Bernard Pierce	+1

Colin Kaepernick (plus-4 points)
Relying on the concept of "good player on good team following bad game," do consider starting Kaepernick on a short week if he's your guy. The past two weeks have been brutal, but the Rams' defense (No. 28 against the pass in Football Outsiders' rankings) may be just what the doctor ordered. Can you really imagine three straight duds from a talent like this? Keep your eyes on the playing status of Vernon Davis, but the 49ers should find more offense this week.
Matt Ryan (minus-5 points)
Despite the negative projection, do not be afraid to start Ryan this Sunday. The Patriots have the No. 4 pass defense, thanks to feasting on two rookie quarterbacks (one in his first start; the other on a short week) and a struggling Josh Freeman. Although Roddy White has been ineffective because of injury, Julio Jones is going to give the Patriots problems, just as he does every defense. Jones leads the league with 27 catches and 373 yards. Expect a big performance from Ryan in what is virtually a must-win game for Atlanta (1-2).
[h=3]Running backs[/h]DeMarco Murray (plus-2 points)
He just decimated the Rams for 175 yards, which pales in comparison to the 253 he had against them in 2011. While the Chargers are a different challenge on the road, I think Dallas is finding its running game again and Murray will have a nice follow-up performance against a San Diego defense (ranked 31st overall) that really has not stopped anyone this season.
Marshawn Lynch (minus-3 points)
With Seattle on the road, you always wonder about them in an early game, which is what we have here in Houston. Lynch had just 17 carries for 43 yards in Carolina in Week 1. Despite last week's bad loss to the Ravens, the defense did a solid job. Since Wade Phillips took over as defensive coordinator in 2011, the Texans have not allowed any running back to rush for at least 80 yards and with a touchdown. No running back has scored multiple touchdowns in the same game against Houston in the past 36 regular-season games.
[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h][h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	-5
QB	HOU	Matt Schaub	-4
QB	NYG	Eli Manning	-4
QB	MIA	Ryan Tannehill	-3
RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	-3
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	-3
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	-3
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	-3
RB	TEN	Chris Johnson	-2
RB	DET	Joique Bell	-2
RB	SD	Ryan Mathews	-2
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	-1
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	-1
RB	SF	Frank Gore	-1
RB	ARI	Rashard Mendenhall	-1
RB	NE	Stevan Ridley	-1
RB	CIN	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	-1
WR	NYG	Victor Cruz	-1
WR	WAS	Pierre Garcon	-1

Eric Decker (plus-1 point)
If you have a skill player in Denver's passing game, start him this week. The Eagles, on the road, will be no match for what Peyton Manninghas going right now with Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Even the running backs (Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball) may be good plays this week. Chip Kelly can flash the high-tempo offense, but Manning's no-huddle attack at Mile High -- where he has 32 touchdowns against three interceptions (in 10 games) -- will roll in this one.
With both teams expecting to push the pace, that could mean a ton of snaps, which means a ton of fantasy points. Start your Eagles, too, if you have them. Leave both defenses on the bench, but you probably knew that already in the case of the Eagles.
Victor Cruz (minus-1 point)
The Chiefs are 3-0 thanks in large part to the defense, which ranks second against the pass. While it would seem unlikely the Giants can play any worse than they did last week, a trip to Arrowhead looks daunting. Brandon Flowers and company did well against DeSean Jackson and the Eagles. If Eli Manning is under such pressure again -- Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (7.5 sacks) is an emerging stud -- then it could be another quiet day for Cruz.
[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]Jason Witten (plus-1 point)
As mentioned before, the Chargers have not been stopping offenses this season. Witten's not a big touchdown threat, but he does have two this year and is second on the team with 16 catches. San Diego has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]These are the elite fantasy players for Week 4 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.
[h=4]Week 4 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	+6	WR	DEN	Wes Welker	+1
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	0	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	+1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	-2	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	0
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	+1	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	0
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	-1	WR	ATL	Julio Jones	-1
RB	TB	Doug Martin	-3	TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	0
WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	+1	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	0

Apparently Jordan Cameron has quickly made me eat some crow, so here's some love for the breakout tight end and his four touchdowns. He actually has just as many catches (20) and yards (269) as Brandon Marshall. "Elite" in the fantasy world certainly means something different from the real world, but Cameron has been great to this point.

HacheMan · Sep 26, 2013

[h=1]A Muppets love story[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Singers:
It's time to play the music
It's time to light the light
It's time to meet the Muppets
On the Muppet Show tonight
It's time to put on makeup
It's time to dress up right ...
And now let's get things started
All Muppets:
Why don't you get things started?
Kermit:
It's time to get things started
Singers:
On the most sensational!
Inspirational!
Celebrational!
Muppetanional!
This is what we call the Muppet Show!
(Gonzo plays the last off-key note on his trumpet.)Jim Henson, the man who gave us the Muppets, "Sesame Street," "Fraggle Rock" and so much more, would have been 77 years old on Sept. 24. And like millions of others around the world, I continue to mourn his passing and thank him for the years of entertainment and pleasure he gave me. My daughters have just discovered "Sesame Street" and they love it, asking for "Emmo" -- which is what they call "Sesame Street" -- so there's now yet another generation of fans of Henson's world in my household, just as there is in virtually every family across the country.
I am a Muppet freak. Loved the show as a kid, saw all the movies, am of the belief that "The Muppet Movie" is among the greatest movies of all time (well, until Miss Piggy shows up).
I don't like the Muppets. I don't fondly remember the Muppets. I love the Muppets. LOVE.
And Henson's birthday made me reflect on something that was among my happiest and saddest moments in show biz. I've written about this before, both in this column and in my book, but never with the detail I'm about to share.
In 2002, Fox announced they had reached a deal with The Jim Henson Company and a non-writing production team called Team Todd (they did the Austin Powers movie) to produce a new prime-time version of "The Muppet Show." And I went insane. Nothing I would rather do. Wanted it bad. Worse than anything I ever wanted professionally. And to this day, as much as I love my job and as much as I don't miss show business, I have told my agent that if I ever got a chance to do something with the Muppets, I would do it in a heartbeat. That's my dream. That I someday get to do something, anything with them.
I came close. When the project was announced, our agent called and tried to get a pitch meeting for us. My writing partner Eric Abrams and I were good, respected writers at that point, but we certainly weren't "sexy." We weren't on "The Simpsons" or "Friends" or "Frasier" or any of the popular, hip writing shows of the day. So while the producers were going out to all these big-name writers asking them to pitch on this project, we were desperately trying to get in. I met the development girl at a party through a mutual friend and begged her in person. We weren't the biggest names. We knew that. But we were the most passionate, and all we wanted was a chance.
They weren't sure what they wanted, talking about reinventing the Muppets, there was talk about showing the puppeteer along with the Muppet, there was talk about making it a hybrid sitcom/sketch show. Should there be humans as regular cast members? Where does it take place? How do we make it different from the original show, and its short-lived predecessor, "Muppets Tonight!"? And how do we go about updating it for the edgy Fox audience, while still remaining true to the characters that people had grown up with and, in 2002 had forgotten? Remember, in 2002 the Muppets had been gone for a long time. How adult are they, or are they still more innocent and childlike? Everything was on the table. And they wanted the show to start with a "bang!" What would be our "Live from New York?" they asked. Lots of questions, not a lot of direction, but we didn't care.
We wanted it.
So we got a meeting and pitched our hearts out. We showed our passion. We discussed how we would update the Muppets while maintaining the core of their character that we all loved. We brought up obscure Muppets. We did everything short of wearing felt and putting a hand up ourselves. We said, in essence, you guys are making this too complicated. Stop with the "showing the puppeteer" or the "sitcom hybrid" or anything that isn't "The Muppets." They are classic characters. They are beloved. They are funny. Just make the sketches a little edgier to update for the times and for the Fox audience and go from there. There's nothing wrong with the Muppets. There's nothing that needs fixing.
Trust in what you love about them, we said.
We were thanked for our time, passion and ideas. They were going with some guy from "The Simpsons." We were crushed. But about six months later, we got a call. The Simpsons guy couldn't crack it. The project was due in two weeks, they had nothing and they were desperate.

Were we still interested?
Hell yes we were. I have my prideful moments. There are many occasions in which I would have said, no, you had your chance. I'm not crawling back because you can't get anyone else on such short notice and getting into a situation where everyone knows we're your second choice. But this is not one of them. It's the Muppets. And I am a Muppet freak. So ... where do we sign?
We basically kill ourselves for two weeks, writing all day and all night nonstop and at the end, we have a script that we are proud of. And more important, a script that everyone else ... loves!
This is not hyperbole or selective memory. Trust me, I had plenty of scripts that many people hated. This one? No notes. No notes from the producers, no notes from Lisa Henson (I loved working with Lisa Henson), no notes from Fox. Which is unheard of. There are always notes. If there are no notes, development executives aren't totally needed, you know? There are always notes.
But nope, everyone loved it. It went up the chain at Fox, the network president at the time, Gail Berman, loved it, everyone loved it. Talk was turning to how soon could we start production and what a good time slot would be. "Great job," they said. "Hilarious." "You remained true to the characters but brought them into present day," they said. We'd kept the core of what people loved about the Muppets but made it accessible to both longtime fans of the show and people who had never heard of them. "How did we do it," they said? Simple, we said.
We trusted what we loved about them.
We wrote with passion, we wrote with love and mostly, we wrote with trust. They didn't need to be reinvented. They are classic, beloved, amazing characters. They have lasted multiple generations and will continue to do so.
So, in an "only in Hollywood" end to the story, the script was sent to the chairman of Fox, who read this script that everyone else who worked for him loved ... and he passed.
Everyone was shocked and soon, the producers met with him.
Producers: Why'd you pass? Is there something the guys could address that you didn't like? Can you give us some notes?
Chairman: No notes. Liked the script. Thought it was very funny.
Producers: Then what's the problem?
Chairman: Does it have to be the Muppets?
Seriously. They had literally made an expensive deal with the Muppets (a known quantity, obviously) and then the problem with the show was ... the Muppets. He didn't think they would work on Fox. Which begs the question: then why'd you make the deal with them in the first place???
Boggles the mind.
That feeling of "everything was so good" quickly turning to a feeling of "what the hell just happened?" is one a lot of fantasy owners are going through right now. You drafted well. You have two stud running backs. A young stud of a QB. Solid wide receivers. And you're 1-2. Or 0-3.
What the ...?
You're freaking out. Do you blow up the team? Do you trade one of your studs? Is your season over? Seriously. What happened?
And I go back to what I realized with the Muppets.
Trust in what you love.
In the preseason, you loved the fact that C.J. Spiller was the seventh-best fantasy running back in 2012 despite just 250 touches. You loved his big-play ability, his third-highest yards after contact average and Doug Marrone's promise to run. You loved the fact that, over the past three years, no team in the NFL has more rushing touchdowns or rushing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line than the New England Patriots, and that with a questionable passing game, they'd lean more on Stevan Ridley. You loved MJD in a contract year, that once David Wilson got a chance last year, he was the seventh-best RB in fantasy over the final four weeks. You loved the consistency of Arian Foster, Ray Rice and Frank Gore. You loved the fact that Roddy White has never missed a game in his NFL career and has been super-consistent as a fantasy force every year; that Colin Kaepernick was a dual threat; that Tony Gonzalez was a great red zone target. You researched and watched and read and thought and, in the end you chose them for your team over anyone else. Because you loved them.
Trust what you love.
It's been just three games. C.J. Spiller did not forget how to play football in three games. Now, not everything will work out. Every year, there's disappointment. There may come a time at the end when the chairman says, "Sorry, Tony Gonzalez, we're passing. I just don't think the Mupp, er, an older tight end will work in this offense."
But in the end, you'll have at least gone down with your best shot. I'm as proud of that Muppet script as anything I've ever done, especially because I know what we were up against, how no one could figure it out, the deadlines and multiple cooks in the kitchen, the challenge of updating the characters and remaining true ... all of it. It didn't ultimately work out, but that script generated a lot of other jobs for us, the guy at Fox got fired not super long afterward and Fox spent quite a while longer looking for another comedy hit. And many years later, the worldwide success of "The Muppets" proved there's still a very large audience, young and old, that wants these characters in their lives.
It didn't end exactly how I wanted but it was a great experience and one that I am so grateful I got.
I trusted what I loved.
Let's get to it. As always, don't use this as a start/sit column, but rather opinions on players I think will exceed or fall short of general expectations. Use my rankings for any "this guy or that guy" questions.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 4[/h]Robert Griffin III, Washington Football Franchise: It's not just that Oakland is bad! I mean, they are, but it's not just that. It's also that Washington's defense is bad! Oakland is actually going to move the ball here (see below) and even though Washington wants to run more, they are going to have to throw like Lew Zealand and his fish. Over 320 yards in three straight games, RG III should have had 57 more yards and a score last week (grumble, Aldrick Robinson, grumble) and that gets rectified this week. I have a horrible feeling in my stomach as a Washington fan that we lose this game, but it won't be before RG III puts up serious points.
Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: Currently undergoing tests in accordance with the NFL's concussion protocol, there is a chance he misses this game. It's a late game, so make sure you have a Plan B, otherwise known as "someone other than Matt Flynn who also has a late start," in case you want to roll the dice with Pryor and and he gets ruled out just before game time.
For those of you with Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton on your bench, Pryor is my choice for a plug-and-play QB. I have him as a top-10 quarterback this week as I expect a high-scoring game between two teams that allow more scoring than some actress in the current pop-culture zeitgeist who is well known for her promiscuity. Look, one of us was going to have to fill in the blank on that hacky joke, this week it's you. By the way, Pryor is 11th in the NFL in completion percentage. Why, he completes more passes than an actor in the current pop-culture zeitgeist who is well known for having brief relationships with many high-profile, attractive young women! Hey-oh!
Tony Romo, Cowboys: No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Chargers. They've played Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Jake Locker. Vick I'll give you but, come on! Most yards, most touchdowns, highest completion percentage, pick a stat, any stat and San Diego is not good against the pass. Romo has just one interception this year and threw for 298 against what we now know is a very good K.C. defense. Just for kicks, it's worth noting the Chargers also allow the second-most yards after contact to opposing receivers this season. And Dez Bryant plays for the Cowboys.
If you're desperate: Alex Smith is averaging 17 points a game and is at home against the, shall we say, struggling New York Giants. ... Philip Rivers is a top-five fantasy quarterback so far. And while I don't expect him to end the year like that, I do think he'll be solid against a Cowboys team that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

[h=3]
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 4[/h]
Andrew Luck, Colts: Josh Freeman. Christian Ponder.Geno Smith. Sorry, just listing some of the quarterbacks who have more pass attempts this year than Andrew Luck. He's 25th in the NFL in that category, he's 26th in passing yards, he has three touchdowns in three games. I know, it's Jacksonville and Luck has bailed you out with two rushing scores and over 20 yards rushing in every game, but while he is mobile, I just don't see that as sustainable. Indy wants to go power running game with their new toyTrent Richardson -- especially in the red zone -- and while I feel Luck has a solid game, this isn't the high-flying offense we saw last year. Not a top-10 play for me, as Indy gets up big quickly and then runs, runs, runs.
Eli Manning, Giants: "Everytime you love Eli, he stinks. Please go back to hating Eli." That was requested from me on Twitter and it's true, I've made a career on hating Eli. Much more than not, when I hate Eli, I'm right. When I've ventured to the other side, like last week, it never goes well. So I'm back, America! Chiefs D is for real and so are the Giants' offensive line issues. Eli has been sacked 11 times, and the Chiefs lead the NFL in sacks. Bleah.
Matt Schaub, Texans: He's averaging 6.55 yards per attempt. By comparison, Alex Smith is averaging 6.37. Andre Johnson is banged up and I don't want my fantasy fortunes resting on Matt Schaub's ability to dink and dunk his way to glory against the Seahawks.
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 4[/h]

Trent Richardson, Colts: See Luck, Andrew. They take the new toy for a test drive against a Jags team allowing 5.2 yards per carry, third most in the league. By the way, Ahmad Bradshaw isn't going away. He'll be a decent flex play this week.</photo></p>Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: Colts have given up four rushing touchdowns in three games so far (tied for third most), they allow 4.7 yards per carry and MJD traditionally owns the Colts. I'd be lying if I said I was thrilled with Blaine Gabbert back at quarterback, but whatever, he's scoring in junk time regardless and you can get there with Gabbert just as easy as with Chad Henne. Solid RB2 this week.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys: Just know I don't feel good about this.
Matt Forte, Bears: A super-obvious name here but putting him in because he's now a legit top-eight running back. This is a good game to use him if you play our Gridiron Challenge Eliminator game, where you play any player you want but can use him only once a season. It's a really fun game, actually. Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but here's a fun piece of info-tainment from the crack research team here at TMR HQ: Matt Forte has 10 red zone rushes this season, fourth most in the league. I hope you toast me with the drink you'll win with that bar bet.
Darren McFadden, Raiders: Three easy reasons.
1. Washington isn't just terrible against the pass, it's also bad against the run! Only two teams have given up more rushing yards per game.
2. When Terrelle Pryor hands it off on a zone-read, DMC is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Of course, the whole "will Terrelle Pryor actually play?" thing factors in here, but if Matt Flynn is starting, does that mean they don't hand it off to RunDMC? Right.
3. I'm playing Trent Dilfer this week in the 16-team "War Room" league you've heard many of us discuss ad nauseum. It's a big game this week as we are in the same division. He has McFadden, so you just know he's going off. I went against Eric Decker in this league last week. You're welcome, America.
If you're desperate: One of these days, David Wilson is going to go off. This weekend makes the most sense, because everyone will have bailed on him, and Kansas City has allowed 5.6 yards per carry this season (most in NFL) and the Giants have to do something to keep Eli upright. Remember, he did have a touchdown called back last week. ... Tough to throw on the Saints these days, but you can run on them, which makes Lamar Millersomewhat interesting. ... Did you know Danny Woodhead is third in the NFL in receptions among RBs? Great little PPR flex play. ... Spiller or no Spiller, Fred Jackson continues to have value. ... I think New England will struggle to run against Atlanta so they'll pass, andBrandon Bolden will be a part of that.
[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 4[/h]Arian Foster, Texans: You're starting him if you have him. I have him in my family league with my 9-year-old, and we're starting him. As good as Seattle is, you can run on them a little (12th in rushing yards allowed), but are we sure that it will be Arian Foster who runs against them? Check this out: Ben Tate has averaged more yards after contact (4.5) than Foster has gained overall (3.9). Tate has gained 106 yards on eight rushes outside the tackles this season. Foster has gained 20 yards on eight rushes outside the tackles. And Foster is averaging a career-low 3.9 yards per rush. He's due for a score, so I bet he gets into the end zone here, but I don't see a huge day and, for the first time in a long time, I have him outside my top 10. I'm not using him in my player eliminator pool or salary cap games.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots: I still believe in him, actually. And the time to buy low is after this week. As noted in the Bolden bit above, Atlanta is tough to run on (fifth in yards allowed, third-fewest yards after contact) and while I don't expect Bolden or LeGarrette Blount to overtake him, they'll both touch the ball enough to bring Ridley's value outside the top 20. Flex play this week.
Le'Veon Bell, Steelers: Glad he's back. But much like Kermit with Dr. Honeydew and Beaker, caution is the best approach here. Let's see him do something first and get more than 12 carries before I put him in my lineup.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: No idea what happened last week. Dude averaged 3.2 yards per carry last week in what looked like a good matchup, and lost carries to the likes of Alfonso Smith. Regardless, it doesn't make you feel all happy, like you're at a Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayem concert or something, now that he goes against Tampa Bay. The Bucs offense is a mess but they can play the run; one of only three teams in the NFL to not have allowed a rushing TD.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers: He ceded the goal-line carry to Ronnie Brown last week. I repeat. To Ronnie Brown. The Chargers coaching staff, when faced with the opportunity to let Ryan Mathews carry the ball on the goal line, turned to each other and decided, in their collective wisdom, that they liked their odds of scoring better with Ronnie Brown. Once again, that's Ronnie Brown.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 4[/h]
Pierre Garcon, Washington Football Franchise: Top 10 in the NFL in targets and receptions, the only quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games arePeyton Manning, Drew Brees and ... Robert Griffin III. When RG III throws against the Raiders, it'll be to his guy Garcon. Top-10 play for me this week.
Marques Colston, Saints: Just a pure and total gut call here. Been three games, hasn't really gone off ... think he's due.
Torrey Smith, Ravens: No wide receiver has been targeted more on throws at least 15 yards downfield than Torrey Smith. "Why is this relevant," you ask? Because last week the Bills allowed 247 yards and two touchdowns on receptions more than 15 yards downfield, and their secondary is still banged up. "Oh," you say.
Julian Edelman, Patriots: No team has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to slot receivers than the Falcons this season.
Josh Gordon, Browns: You know how an NFL franchise gets the most for someone in a trade? You feed him the ball over and over and over like he's Animal and you have meat. And as good as the Bengals defense is, it's tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers. Gordon is a top-20 play this week.
Tavon Austin, Rams: Remember when they were the Niners D? Yeah. Thursday games are historically less offensive than others, but slot receivers have had success against San Fran this year and Austin has run 86 routes out of the slot this season, so I like his chances of doing something in this game as a flex play.
If you're desperate: You don't pay a guy $56 million to ignore him for two straight weeks, so I bet Dwayne Bowe has a solid game this week. ... Denarius Moore has two scores in three games and I bet he has a good shot at three in four if Pryor plays against Washington. ... No Nate Burleson, lots of attention on Calvin Johnson; OK Ryan Broyles, now is your moment, kid. ... I continue to believe in Cordarrelle Patterson. Every week he plays a little bit more. Just like with Gonzo, you know the explosion is coming, it's just a matter of when.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 4[/h]Andre Johnson, Texans: Banged up, game-time decision and it's the physical secondary of the Seahawks he'd face. Not a top-10 play for me.
Greg Jennings, Vikings: Although he's second in targets on the Vikes, it's not a great matchup this week for him. For all the issues the Steelers have, they can still defend the pass. Not if he's running through the field with a bed around him, of course, but the repeatability of that is very slim. Believe in yoursmelf. Just don't believe in Greg Jennings finally putting up numbers against the Steelers.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: When you limp onto Revis Island, it's not your week. Outside my top 20 this week.
Lance Moore, Saints and Kenny Britt, Titans: Not that you were thinking of starting either guy, but I bring this up because both of them are owned in over 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues and they shouldn't be. Cut both of these guys ASAP and get someone even slightly more consistent in there.
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 4[/h]
Pierre Garcon, Washington Football Franchise: Top 10 in the NFL in targets and receptions, the only quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games arePeyton Manning, Drew Brees and ... Robert Griffin III. When RG III throws against the Raiders, it'll be to his guy Garcon. Top-10 play for me this week.
Marques Colston, Saints: Just a pure and total gut call here. Been three games, hasn't really gone off ... think he's due.
Torrey Smith, Ravens: No wide receiver has been targeted more on throws at least 15 yards downfield than Torrey Smith. "Why is this relevant," you ask? Because last week the Bills allowed 247 yards and two touchdowns on receptions more than 15 yards downfield, and their secondary is still banged up. "Oh," you say.
Julian Edelman, Patriots: No team has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to slot receivers than the Falcons this season.
Josh Gordon, Browns: You know how an NFL franchise gets the most for someone in a trade? You feed him the ball over and over and over like he's Animal and you have meat. And as good as the Bengals defense is, it's tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers. Gordon is a top-20 play this week.
Tavon Austin, Rams: Remember when they were the Niners D? Yeah. Thursday games are historically less offensive than others, but slot receivers have had success against San Fran this year and Austin has run 86 routes out of the slot this season, so I like his chances of doing something in this game as a flex play.
If you're desperate: You don't pay a guy $56 million to ignore him for two straight weeks, so I bet Dwayne Bowe has a solid game this week. ... Denarius Moore has two scores in three games and I bet he has a good shot at three in four if Pryor plays against Washington. ... No Nate Burleson, lots of attention on Calvin Johnson; OK Ryan Broyles, now is your moment, kid. ... I continue to believe in Cordarrelle Patterson. Every week he plays a little bit more. Just like with Gonzo, you know the explosion is coming, it's just a matter of when.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 4[/h]Andre Johnson, Texans: Banged up, game-time decision and it's the physical secondary of the Seahawks he'd face. Not a top-10 play for me.
Greg Jennings, Vikings: Although he's second in targets on the Vikes, it's not a great matchup this week for him. For all the issues the Steelers have, they can still defend the pass. Not if he's running through the field with a bed around him, of course, but the repeatability of that is very slim. Believe in yoursmelf. Just don't believe in Greg Jennings finally putting up numbers against the Steelers.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: When you limp onto Revis Island, it's not your week. Outside my top 20 this week.
Lance Moore, Saints and Kenny Britt, Titans: Not that you were thinking of starting either guy, but I bring this up because both of them are owned in over 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues and they shouldn't be. Cut both of these guys ASAP and get someone even slightly more consistent in there.
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 4[/h]

HacheMan · Sep 26, 2013

[h=1]Flex ranks: Don't overrate bad matchups

[/h]
[h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Everyone ready to flex again? It's Thursday, and you know what that means! We combine the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends -- and there are many tight ends this week -- into one tidy package to help with your Week 4 decisions. Although it has been apparent for a while that running back is not strong, there are some pretty interesting options deeper down the list this week. So how do they compare to the wide receivers? Well, that's why this blog entry exists!

Remember to use the information presented to you by the ESPN Fantasy staff to augment your decisions, not make them for you, and if you still have questions, or play in a unique scoring system, try us on Twitter or in our many chats. As for my Wednesday chat session,[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]here is the wrap[/FONT], and here are the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Week 4 staff rankings[/FONT].

<offer style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">Good luck to all in Week 4 and beyond!

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Great player, great matchup.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: It's nit-picking, but since his very first carry of the season, a 68-yard touchdown rumble, he has averaged a mere 3.1 yards per carry. Still, he's pretty good.

3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: What we haven't seen yet is how McCoy's workload will be adjusted in a blowout loss. Well, we'll probably find out Sunday in Denver.

4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: He ran on the 49ers. He's matchup-proof.

5. Matt Forte, RB, Bears

6. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: His new rookie quarterback won't hurt him at all. He'll still get a ton of touches.

7. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: The Redskins are 0-3. The Giants are 0-3. But at least the Redskins score points.

8. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Pretty much unstoppable, and he faces a bad defense.

9. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

10. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Ooh, he faces Seattle. Ooh, he shares touches. And ooh, I like him anyway.

11. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

12. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: A year ago, he was sharing targets pretty evenly with two others. Now he's not.

13. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Expected to play, and obviously I think he'll play well.

14. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

15. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

16. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Passing touchdowns count as well. It's not like when pitchers hit home runs, though it would be nice if those counted as well.

17. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: Production? Check. Health? Check. Surprised? A little.

18. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos

19. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: Don't overthink this. He won't get all of the RB touches, but he won't need to to produce.

20. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

21. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Ran for 103 yards two weeks ago, so let's not take this slump too far. Shouldn't see a full workload, but as with Richardson, he doesn't need to. All it takes is one big play.

22. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans

23. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Mike Glennon has a big arm. Jackson will be fine.

24. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

25. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Supposed to play, and even with only 15 touches, he should be productive.

26. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Just because the 49ers' win was achieved mainly by the running game (and defense), don't think Andrew Luck and Wayne won't have their fun moving forward.

27. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

28. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: Still the main guy. Only concern is if it's another blowout, then we'll see more of the young running backs. Maybe Moreno will win this week's version of "rock, paper, scissors."

29. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles

30. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: He whined about a lack of targets, and look what happened. They came in droves. Every wide receiver should whine more.

31. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

32. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

33. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

34. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: Slow start, but no reason to panic.

35. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Team says he could have a reduced workload. I say a touchdown or two among his four or five receptions is still worth it.

36. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

37. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

38. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills

39. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Well, now that Blaine Gabbert is back, things should get so much better. (Cough, cough.)

40. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Nice matchup for him. He has been getting the yards each week, now it's time to score!

41. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

42. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns: Superstar. But if you own him and Gronk, you trade this guy. And you do it off his three-touchdown game -- as in, before this week.

43. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens

44. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

45. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: Still tough to trust him, but he's gotta be owned.

46. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: Would like to see the Bengals really trust him.

47. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: Obviously a better play if Reggie Bush is out again.

48. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: Talented enough to perform well no matter the quarterback.

49. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: Didn't expect him to ever have a 149-yard rushing game.

50. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: We want to believe he'll rip up the Giants' secondary, but he was awfully quiet in Philly.

51. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

52. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Has three double-digit fantasy games in three attempts. Spiller has one in three.

53. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins: Hey, it's not going to be a statistical party every week.

54. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: The latest to whine about targets, which usually means big targets ahead.

55. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals

56. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars

57. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals

58. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: Look who's ready to play! Just remember, his offensive line is a mess.

59. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams

60. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: Won't see many better matchups than the Redskins at home.

61. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

62. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

63. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

64. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers

65. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos

66. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: Honestly, at this point it's hard to keep him active. But you can't cut him.

67. David Wilson, RB, Giants: Well, him, too. So talented, so disappointing.

68. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins: At least with Hartline you know you're getting five points, right?

69. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

70. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans

71. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

72. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: So many tight ends are off to nice starts, but not this Hall of Famer. Give it time.

73. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

74. Ben Tate, RB, Texans

75. Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers

76. Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams: Not a great play this week, but add him in case he takes the starting role.

77. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: Can't expect a touchdown each week, or that many touches, for that matter. But he's going to be involved.

78. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Well, his fall from grace happened quickly. But he can get it back when healthy.

79. Willis McGahee, RB, Browns: Has to do better than his Cleveland debut.

80. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots

81. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks

82. Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons

83. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets: Showed last week how talented he is. But tough to depend on his quarterback finding him.

84. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams

85. Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions: Gets his opportunity, with Nate Burleson out for a while. Just don't expect a top-20 wide receiver. They do have Megatron.

86. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

87. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks

88. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos: Starting to wonder if he'll even get close to top-20 running back consideration.

89. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints

90. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers

91. Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots

92. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

93. Chris Givens, WR, Rams

94. Michael Bush, RB, Bears

95. Jared Cook, TE, Rams

96. Nate Washington, WR, Titans

97. Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens

98. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles

99. Rod Streater, WR, Raiders

100. Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots

Others: Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers; Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears; Donnie Avery, WR, Chiefs;Stephen Hill, WR, Jets; Lance Moore, WR, Saints; Mark Ingram, RB, Saints; Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos; Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals; Kendall Wright, WR, Titans; Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins; Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders; Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys; Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears; Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers.</offer>

HacheMan · Sep 30, 2013

[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 4[/h][h=3]Peterson, Foster come up big; many top backs struggle; quarterbacks quiet down[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

If you're an NFL quarterback and your name isn't [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Peyton Manning[/FONT], you didn't go crazy in Week 4.

The past three weeks, we've seen a passel of signal-callers post huge fantasy days. In Week 1, 10 QBs scored 20-plus standard-league fantasy points. Then we saw eight QBs score 20-plus in Week 2 and nine do it in Week 3. But this Sunday? Only five men reached that mark: Manning, Philip Rivers, Alex Smith, Matt Ryanand Tom Brady. (Hopefully, you used Rivers or Smith as a replacement for the resting Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton.) And unlike the three previous weeks, no QB reached 30 fantasy points, whereas five QBs had done it in the season's first three games.
What does this mean? Maybe nothing. But it may also mean that some order was restored to the universe, as a few of the game's great running backs finally produced days that made us remember why we drafted them in the first round. The fact is that when Manning scores 29 fantasy points in a week, it's really satisfying, but it's "only" roughly a 13-point advantage over the replacement-level QB. When Adrian Petersonscores 26 fantasy points, it's about a 20-point advantage over the replacement-level RB. That's why, in a vacuum, having the best RBs play like the best RBs is the best-case scenario for your fantasy team.
Of course, if Manning is going to average nearly 30 fantasy points per week and never score fewer than 20, well, that's something. Certainly, we haven't seen any RB give you that kind of consistency yet this year. But it usually does happen eventually, and I'm still counting on the majority of the first-round RBs to do what Peterson and Arian Foster did this week: bounce back. And perhaps Week 4 was the beginning of some sanity restoration amid the QB ranks.
Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• None of this is to say that some running backs can't frustrate the heck out of you. After beginning Sunday's game with two nice runs, Darren McFadden reaffirmed his essential Darren McFadden-ness by apparently injuring a hamstring on the Oakland Raiders' second series and sitting out the rest of the game. Rashad Jenningswill be a popular add this week, especially since Marcel Reece also suffered an injury. Alfred Morrismanaged 71 yards on 16 rugged carries, but suffered a rib injury and couldn't return; Roy Helu would probably be the Washington Redskins' best option if Morris misses time after the team's Week 5 bye. Maurice Jones-Drew continued a disastrous first month with 28 yards on 14 touches. We can blame the Jacksonville Jaguars' terrible overall play all we want, but the fact is that MJD isn't making anything happen, either; the only thing that might rescue him in Week 5 is a matchup against the horrible St. Louis Rams run defense. Chris Johnsonproduced 21 yards on 15 carries against the rugged New York Jets run defense, and didn't get any goal-line carries. And finally, C.J. Spiller racked up 25 yards on five carries on theBuffalo Bills' first possession, but managed only 52 yards on his next 18 carries and lost a touchdown to Fred Jackson. Much worse, Spiller suffered an ankle injury that forced him out of the game in the third quarter. Jackson is obviously owned in all leagues, but it's worth noting that the Bills play the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night, so Jackson (who also suffered a knee injury Sunday but was able to return to the game) may be the starter. Spiller told reporters it might be difficult for him to play in four days.
• It wasn't all bad news for RBs. Le'Veon Bell didn't look like any sort of sublime talent in his first game running for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the team's other backfield options are so lousy, Bell immediately becomes a no-doubt feature back after his 57 yards on 16 carries and four catches for 27 yards. Most importantly, Bell got every red zone look and converted two of them. His first TD showed some nice quickness in space, allowing him to get to the outside. His second was a straightforward plunge. Is Bell anything more than a Rashard Mendenhall redux? The coming weeks will tell. But heck, in his Pittsburgh heyday, Mendy was a consistent No. 2 RB.
• Reggie Bush was incredible in his return, with 22 touches, 173 yards and an acrobatic 37-yard TD run. He did this against a Chicago Bears defense that contained Adrian Peterson just two weeks ago, making Bush's afternoon all the more impressive. Joique Bell got some overflow work, to the tune of 11 touches and 42 yards, but it's clear that when Bush is right, Bell isn't going to be a strong standard-league option. By the same token, if you want to bet that Bush won't get injured and miss time again in '13, feel free. I, myself, will not.

• Arian Foster also chose a surprising week to make a fantasy statement. In a loss made unforgivable by a horrendous late pick-six by Matt Schaub, Foster was persistent and took advantage of creases in the impressive Seattle Seahawks defense. It added up to 102 yards on 27 carries, coupled with six catches for 69 yards and a TD. For some reason, there's a tendency right now in the fantasy community to be disappointed with Foster, but his fantasy point total is healthy, and most importantly his tape is basically exactly the same as previous seasons. And as I've been saying for weeks, Ben Tate is no threat to Foster's workload.

• Are Baltimore Ravens fans pining for the days of Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator? Well, probably not. But the Ravens' play calling Sunday was curious to say the least. They just came out slinging, and pretty much ignored Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. In the first half, Joe Flacco was 9-of-23 for 101 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs, while Rice had three carries for 8 yards and Pierce had four carries for 7. And then in the second half, with the score still competitive, the Ravens didn't call a single run play until five minutes were left in the fourth quarter; in the interim, Flacco threw another 27 passes. All this added up to a huge day for Torrey Smith, who caught his first pass with a minute to go in the first half but wound up with five grabs for 166 yards and a score. But Flacco won't usually succeed with that kind of workload. (Despite his 50 attempts, he scored only 11 standard-league fantasy points, thanks in part to five interceptions.) It's particularly confusing that only two of Flacco's attempts went to running backs. Baltimore has to figure some stuff out in advance of next week's contest against the Miami Dolphins. The only silver lining here is that Rice played a vast majority of downs, so his hip must be feeling OK.
• My go-to line about Josh Freeman's benching last week was: "Well, Mike Glennon couldn't play any worse." I may have to amend that contention. Glennon's only TD-scoring drive came on a short field in the first quarter after an Arizona Cardinals fumble. He was gawkily brutal thereafter. Showing minimal pocket presence, losing a fumble on a botched handoff, and throwing an unforgivable interception deep in his own territory while leading 10-3 with four minutes left in the game, Glennon doesn't look like an NFL player. He tried to get the ball to Vincent Jackson, but Big Vince couldn't corral nine of the 11 targets he saw Sunday. Even worse, Doug Martin saw safeties pushing toward the line of scrimmage all day and wound up with 45 yards on 27 carries. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on bye in Week 5, and it couldn't come at a better time after a brutal loss.
• Who's starting to wonder whether the Cincinnati Bengals might be a better team if they swapped quarterbacks with the Cleveland Browns? For the second straight week, Brian Hoyer scored 18 fantasy points, but he was steadier Sunday, completing 25-of-38 passes for 269 yards and two TDs. But the larger point is that where Brandon Weeden looks shaky in the pocket and refuses to take shots, Hoyer smartly feeds his two playmakers -- Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon -- while hanging tough in the pocket and usually eschewing the Browns' typical "3-yard pass on third-and-7." Gordon made a crazy athletic 33-yard grab early Sunday and wound up with 71 yards on four grabs, while Cameron scored his fifth TD of the year. Meanwhile, A.J. Green found the sledding tough against Joe Haden, and Andy Dalton continued his checkdown, skittish ways.

• Matt Cassel is an arm-strength upgrade overChristian Ponder, even if Cassel didn't necessarily show it in Sunday's win in London. Cassel's yardage total (248) looks fine, but much of that damage was done on short passes with long runs by Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson. (To be fair, Simpson did catch a couple deeper balls later in the game.) But for one week, anyway, the Minnesota Vikings were a competent passing offense, with a QB who delivered balls on time and in stride. I don't want to oversell Cassel, but if he keeps the gig, there's hope for Jennings, who scored two TDs.
• A week after both men shocked the fantasy world with big days, Santonio Holmes andStephen Hill both left the New York Jets' blowout loss Sunday with injuries. Hill suffered a likely concussion on Geno Smith's first throw (an interception), while Holmes reportedly suffered a hamstring injury. Smith was awful in Week 4, illustrating why you shouldn't have been buying after last week's fluky result.
• Who'd have believed the world could miss Terrelle Pryor in an NFL game this much? Matt Flynn cleared up any lingering question about why he's been unable to keep a starting job, looking hesitant and confused in the pocket whenever he couldn't throw on time to his first receiver. A Washington Redskins defense that had produced eight sacks in three games registered seven sacks of Flynn on Sunday. Hurry back, Terrelle.
• If you've been a complaining Dwayne Bowe owner over the past month, you're not allowed to feel satisfied now. Bowe had three catches for 24 yards (and a pass interference call drawn and an interception allowed) before the Kansas City Chiefs' final meaningless drive, whereupon he rumbled for a 34-yard score through a desultory New York Giantsdefense. You officially have my permission to peddle Bowe at what could be the peak of his 2013 value. Alex Smith just isn't going to force the ball down the field to him.

• There hadn't been all that much difference between the way Tom Brady had used Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson heading into Sunday night, but the two rookie WRs took diverging paths in Atlanta. Despite two more horrendous drops (and another bobbling catch), Thompkins took a big step forward, with 11 targets, six catches, 127 yards and a lovely diving TD grab. Dobson had only one grab but probably should've scored on a third-quarter red zone throw, save a blatant and uncalled defensive holding; to add injury to insult, on the same play, Dobson took a shot to his head that wrenched around his neck, and he had to leave the game. Both Rob Gronkowski andDanny Amendola could return in Week 5 (where have we heard that before?), which would certainly mess with Thompkins' stock. But he's definitely emerging as a legit weapon.
• Last week, I wrote a piece asking whether there was anything wrong with Tony Gonzalez. I concluded there wasn't. Good conclusion. Gonzo lit up the New England Patriotson Sunday night with a career-high 149 receiving yards on 12 grabs, two of which went for touchdowns. The Atlanta Falcons keep running a hobbled Roddy White out there, which frankly makes it too easy for opposing defenses to defend the pass, unless Gonzalez pulls a nutty. He did that in Week 4, and almost single-handedly rescued the team's bacon.

HacheMan · Sep 30, 2013

[h=1]Four Downs: Bush flourishing in Detroit

[/h][h=5]Eric Karabell[/h]
Give [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Detroit Lions[/FONT] running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Reggie Bush[/FONT] credit. For most of his five seasons with the[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New Orleans Saints[/FONT], the Heisman Trophy winner out of USC was a huge disappointment, struggling to stay healthy and failing to produce the statistics expected of him. In the past two seasons with the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Miami Dolphins[/FONT], however, Bush turned the corner and became a productive player with little around him; he stayed on the field and finished each campaign close to top-10 fantasy running back status. Well, Bush is a different player in a different offense these days, and his performance Sunday should push him -- finally -- into that pantheon of top-10 running backs.

Bush missed Week 3 with a left knee ailment and admitted he was concerned about how it would feel, reminding many fantasy owners about his perceived lack of durability. Then again, Bush missed just one game in his two seasons with Miami. This weekend there were 15 running backs active in more leagues than Bush, including strugglers such as [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Ray Rice[/FONT] -- not exactly healthy himself -- and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Stevan Ridley[/FONT]. So how do those owners who sat Bush in Sunday's 40-32 win over the defensive-minded [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chicago Bears[/FONT] feel now after Bush rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and added another 34 yards receiving? This is an elite player on an elite offense performing at an elite level. Through most of four NFL weeks (entering the Sunday night Patriots-Falcons game), a running back has scored 22 or more standard fantasy points only 11 times; Bush and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Adrian Peterson[/FONT] have each achieved this twice. That's telling.

On Sunday, Bush did most of his damage between the tackles, generating 121 of his rushing yards on 13 carries. He's averaging 5.7 yards per attempt this season in such situations, which is quite a change from his Saints and Dolphins days, when the book on Bush was to get him out in open space and let him make something happen. Bush averaged 4.5 yards per rush -- still effective, mind you -- on attempts between the tackles prior to this season, but certainly wasn't utilized as often in those situations. The Lions figured to keep Bush busy on screen passes and have bigger, sturdier options like[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Joique Bell[/FONT] and the forgotten [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Mikel Leshoure[/FONT] do the dirty work, but the popular Bell -- he was active in 42.5 percent of ESPN leagues -- saw just half the touches Bush did Sunday.

Bush certainly appears to be up to the task of handling this workload, and his knee looked just fine when he exploded for a 37-yard touchdown jaunt late in the first half. While aiming to run down the clock in the fourth quarter, Bush was the one taking handoffs, leading to the team's final points. This new version of Bush, still agile and quick, is able to thrive in the middle of the field with the big boys, and let's not dismiss the presence of the awesome[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Calvin Johnson[/FONT] as aiding in the big picture. Bush is back on pace for more than 1,000 rushing yards despite performing in basically just two full games. The upside, should he stay healthy, is for far more than that, and it's time to move him past [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]C.J. Spiller[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Alfred Morris[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Trent Richardson[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Chris Johnson[/FONT] into the top 10 and make him a weekly play.

Second down: One could argue that Bush deserves a higher ranking than Baltimore Ravensstar Ray Rice as well, and it's certainly a worthy debate. The Ravens seemed oddly disinterested in the running game Sunday against a Buffalo Bills defense that had been shredded by Bilal Powell last week, giving Rice and Bernard Pierce a combined nine carries, which they turned into a sad 24 yards. Quarterback Joe Flacco, meanwhile, has now eclipsed 50 pass attempts in two of four games (and thrown seven interceptions in those losses). Over one stretch Sunday, the Ravens threw the football on 30 consecutive plays. Flacco is a marginal fantasy play to begin with, but Rice remains regarded as a must-start option when active, despite failing to reach 40 rushing yards in a game. Whether it's his hip injury or Baltimore's run-blocking woes, it's fair to wonder if those days are over. Suddenly, buying low on Rice doesn't seem so wise.

hird down: A positive running back story from Sunday came all the way from London, England, as Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell finally suited up and responded with 84 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is exactly what fantasy owners need; we're desperate for running back depth. Bell, perhaps still battling a foot injury, played the role of feature back effectively, barely sharing with the likes of Felix Jones and Jonathan Dwyer. The Michigan State product made a solid cut to score on his 8-yard touchdown, then used his impressive size and balance to break through the line on a 1-yarder. Bell will get to rest this coming week with the Steelers' bye, but as others fall, he'll likely be regarded as a top-20 running back by mid-October.

Fourth down: There were eight instances in which a wide receiver scored 23 or more fantasy points in the first two weeks of the season, but since then it has happened just once -- the Steelers' Antonio Brown in Week 3. It did not happen Sunday. Can fantasy owners derive meaning from this? Well, wide receiver play is largely inconsistent to begin with, and fantasy owners should stick with their stars. While most New York Giants options continue to disappoint, wide receiver Victor Cruz caught 164 yards worth of passes and scored his fourth touchdown. Fantasy owners are obviously souring -- and for good reason -- on the likes of Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton and Flacco, but Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Torrey Smith remain reliable options, as proven Sunday. Be patient with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Vincent Jackson; he caught only two passes from raw rookie Mike Glennon on Sunday, but he did see 11 targets. As Glennon improves, Jackson will remain a coveted fantasy option, just like the aforementioned wide receivers.

HacheMan · Oct 1, 2013

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 5[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 5's best fantasy roster additions:
(Week 5 byes: Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins)
Standard ESPN league finds

Rashad Jennings, RB, Oakland Raiders (owned in 0.9 percent of ESPN leagues): For the second straight year, Jennings finds himself the target of desperate fantasy owners. Last season, Jennings seemed the logical inheritor once Maurice Jones-Drew got hurt, and indeed he started six games for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately, he played badly, including a 2.8 yards-per-carry mark and shoulder and concussion problems. Sunday, he ran acceptably well after Darren McFaddenand Marcel Reece left the Raiders' game because of injury; Reece is likely out for multiple weeks with a knee problem, while DMC has a pulled hamstring. As of this writing, it's unknown whether McFadden will return for Week 5, but given his injury history, it's easy to imagine he won't. Jennings is a big kid with some straight-ahead pop, and while he's nobody's long-term solution as a RB, he should probably be added in all leagues.
Tashard Choice, RB, Buffalo Bills (0.0 percent): Here's another milquetoast repeat offender. Because C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have proven to be brittle, Choice has become a waiver-wire pickup in each of the past three seasons. Has he done anything with his scant opportunities? Um, no. But the Bills play Thursday night, and both Spiller and Jackson suffered injuries in Week 4. Spiller's ankle problem is reportedly more serious than Jackson's knee issue, but neither has been ruled out yet. Choice is simply addable if you've been waiting around for Spiller to finally perform, but I have little faith that he'd get much done against a good Cleveland Browns defense even if he gets the start.
Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins (43.1 percent): Helu is a better player than either Jennings or Choice, but he's also least likely to get playing time once his team gets back on the field again. Alfred Morris injured his ribs in Week 4, but the Redskins are on bye this week, and Morris reportedly should be fine to play in Week 6. However, I'll use the occasion of Helu's 84 yards on 15 touches Sunday to mention that if you're a Morris owner and youhaven't handcuffed him to Helu, you're asking for trouble. More than the potential replacements in Oakland or Buffalo, Helu actually could do some every-down damage if the starter did stay hurt long term.
Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (17.0 percent): I'm promoting Woodhead here from the "deep" list, where he's resided since Week 1, to this "standard" one. I got a note in my Twitter feed Monday morning telling me that I was crazy for undervaluing Woodhead, because he's "basically the same as Darren Sproles." Come on. I mean, it's great that Woody scored two receiving TDs Sunday, on his way to 20 ESPN standard-league fantasy points. But he'd scored 12 fantasy points the first three weeks combined. In 56 career regular-season games, he's exceeded 100 total yards three times. (And that's saying something, considering 46 of those games took place with the New England Patriots.) None of this is to say Woodhead is a bad player. He's not. But the Chargers' backfield is a three-headed mess with Ryan Mathews and Ronnie Brown also involved. I think Woody is addable, especially if your team is in a PPR league. But don't chase points until you see a couple of more weeks of production in a row.
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals (1.8 percent): This is the guy I'm really interested in as a long-term add this week. He's another promotion from the "deep" to the "standard" list. Rashard Mendenhall did dominate snaps for the Cards in their comeback win Sunday, but he was pretty dreadful. He dropped a pass, lost a fumble one snap after recovering his own fumble, ran out of bounds while his team was trying to run the clock, plus nearly fumbled on that same play. Ellington, a Super-Deep Sleeper of mine this summer, had only seven touches in Week 4 but produced 51 yards and also submitted a highlight-reel ankle break of Darrelle Revis. Ellington is slender and doesn't have insane breakaway speed, but his quicks are terrific and he's not tiny. I question whether any Cardinals RB will produce fantasy glory behind a struggling offensive line, but I won't be surprised if Ellington sees his playing time go the way of Giovani Bernard's. I'd stash him in all leagues.

Cleveland Browns defense (4.3 percent): I've been trying to sell the ESPN universe on the Browns' D since I was so impressed with them Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins, but as you can tell by their ownership numbers, not that many folks have listened. The pass rush still needs to get going consistently (especially with Jabaal Sheard sidelined by a knee sprain), but the run D is among the league's best and Joe Haden has just been terrific. Thursday night, they get a home game against the Buffalo Bills and their rookie QB. This is your Week 5 streaming special, but honestly, I can see holding onto this unit for a good long while.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers (6.8 percent); Willis McGahee, RB, Browns (24.1 percent); Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (15.0 percent); Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons (38.5 percent); Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars (13.2 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (44.7 percent); Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens (9.1 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (24.0 percent); Coby Fleener, TE, Colts (20.1 percent).
Deeper league finds

Mike Goodson, RB, New York Jets (2.6 percent): Goodson's four-game suspension has ended, and he's ready to assume a potentially significant role in the Jets' backfield, especially since Chris Ivory is (surprise!) out indefinitely with his injured hamstring. Bilal Powell has posted back-to-back 100-plus-total-yard games, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight, so I don't believe we're immediately going to see a straight platoon between him and Goodson. But in theory, Goodson would make a nice, fairly explosive complement to Powell's average skills. He should certainly be a speculative add in all deeper leagues, and frankly if you're desperate in a 10-teamer, I don't hate using a bench spot on Goodson. However, his biggest problem as an NFL player is that he's been as brittle as Ivory.

Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (0.8 percent): The hamstring injury that kept Miles Austinout of Week 4 reportedly isn't expected to be a long-term problem, and the Cowboys think he's got a chance to play this week. That's the only thing that keeps Williams from being a standard-league add. Then again, who among us believes that Austin won't get hurt again at some point this season? Williams is an athletic rookie in the Austin mode, and on Sunday he caught seven of eight targets for 77 yards. Unfortunately, he also lost track of where he was on the field and stretched for the goal line while still outside the 2, leading to a crushing lost fumble. His only real path to fantasy relevance is continued poor health for Austin.
Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland Browns (1.3 percent): Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, Hoyer didn't make the bevy of spectacular plays that hallmarked his unexpected road win against the Vikings, but he probably played better. Certainly, he made fewer out-of-control throws, while continuing his aggressive ways. Hoyer has proven he's not afraid to jam passes in to his best receivers, and he's not a pure dink-and-dunker. If you're casting around for a new option in a two-QB league, you could probably do worse.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (1.3 percent): Obie is a Swiss army knife of a player whom the Browns use all over the place, including as a fullback in some formations. Alongside Willis McGahee and Bobby Rainey, Ogbonnaya probably won't see many carries, but he's been the team's prime receiver out of the backfield, having caught nine passes and a TD over the past two games since Trent Richardson left town. The only way you should be interested in him, however, is in a very deep PPR league in which you've got a high degree of desperation.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions (36.7 percent): Stop me if you've heard this before: Brandon Pettigrew came out of nowhere to have a big week! After catching five passes in his first three games, Pettigrew grabbed seven Sunday, for 54 yards. It'll take more than one quasi-strong game for me to consider trusting this guy outside a really deep league. Unlike many of the new breed of TEs, Pettigrew doesn't make plays down the field.
Khiry Robinson, RB, New Orleans Saints (0.1 percent): For the second straight game, the Saints used Robinson to close out the fourth quarter of a blowout Monday night, and the kid proved he's got decent chops. Robinson is another of my Super-Deep Sleepers and just like all Saints RBs is unlikely to contribute consistently in the run game. But disappointingMark Ingram remains on the shelf with a bad toe, and for as long as he's out, Robinson figures to see some action as the team's power option. I recall Chris Ivory briefly becoming a factor in that role.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs (45.6 percent); Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders (22.9 percent); E.J. Manuel, QB, Bills (24.0 percent); Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (9.3 percent); Bobby Rainey, RB, Browns (1.1 percent); LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots (2.5 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (5.9 percent); Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots (8.1 percent); Robert Woods, WR, Bills (5.0 percent);Nate Washington, WR, Titans (17.8 percent); Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings (3.0 percent);Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets (34.8 percent); Donnie Avery, WR, Chiefs (12.5 percent);Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (3.4 percent); Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (1.0 percent); Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins (17.1 percent).