Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Pierce not likely to hurt Rice's value[/h][h=3]Rice still owns touches on goal line, in passing game[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Fourth-and-29 is a down and distance that will go down in Baltimore Ravens lore because of the singular effort of Ray Rice. As the final option in Joe Flacco's progression on that play, Rice took a simple dump-off pass the distance needed for an improbable first down that for all intents and purposes saved what would become a Super Bowl-winning season for the Ravens.

That play notwithstanding, Rice's fantasy productivity in 2012 dropped slightly from his three previous seasons as the Ravens' primary ball carrier, and it's important to find out why.

Many people will automatically point to the opportunities that rookie Bernard Pierce was given as the cause of Rice's mild decline. That response is anecdotal and not based in fact. While Pierce was given 108 carries last season, that number is in direct line with the quantity of opportunities that Rice's primary backup has traditionally been given. Would anyone argue that Willis McGahee's 100 carries in 2009, 109 carries in 2010 or Ricky Williams' 108 carries in 2011 adversely impacted Rice's elite performance in those years? Of course not, because they didn't. What people are really missing are the carries that were given to players other than Rice or his primary backup, as that number significantly increased in 2012 and we should quantify why that happened.

The Ravens ran 1,042 plays from scrimmage in 2012. On those plays, they passed 53.7 percent of the time. This was an increase compared to 2011, when they passed on 52.5 percent of their plays. This is a minor variation that resulted in only 13 fewer rush attempts, so it should not factor into the value that Rice carries into this season. In 2011, Rice and his primary backup Williams, combined for 399 rush attempts. Those carries represented 87 percent of the Ravens' total rush attempts. In 2012, Rice and Pierce combined for 365 rush attempts, or just 82 percent of the Ravens' total rushes. That drop means that they lost more than 20 attempts -- the equivalent of nearly one full game's worth of opportunities -- to the likes of Anthony Allen and Tyrod Taylor. However, it's worth noting that Allen and Taylor did their damage in Week 17, when the Ravens sat most of their starters for the majority of that game. Therefore, while Rice's total percentage of carries decreased, a great portion of that decline was due to the use of third- and fourth-tier options in the Ravens' meaningless Week 17 game. Since the resting of players in Week 17 is extremely variable (and doesn't impact most fantasy teams), let's turn our attention to determining if there's an area of the field where Pierce has a significant opportunity to eat into Rice's opportunities.


Let's start in the red zone, where Ray Rice receives approximately 25 percent of his fantasy value, based on touchdowns alone. In this area, there is virtually no chance that Pierce makes any significant headway into Rice's value. Last season, Rice had 36 carries in the red zone, gaining 105 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on those opportunities. Pierce wasn't given nearly the same number of opportunities, perhaps because he was one of the least effective red zone rushers in the league. In nine attempts in the red zone, Pierce had just 13 yards and one touchdown.

While some may try to point to compressed defensive alignments close to the goal line as a driver of Pierce's miserable production in this area, seven of those nine attempts came from the 10-yard line or further away. Based on this data, it's safe to conclude that Rice will remain the primary rushing option for the Ravens in the red zone, and more importantly, close to the goal line.

While Rice is safe there, outside of the red zone his opportunities could be vulnerable. From the Ravens' own goal line, to the opponents' 20-yard line, Pierce was the more productive runner. Within this section of the field, Pierce averaged 5.2 yards per carry to Rice's 4.7 yards. Among players with at least 75 rushes in this area, Pierce finished fifth in the NFL behind only Adrian Peterson, C.J. Spiller, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. That being said, Rice finished 14th in this metric and exceeded the league average by almost 0.2 yards, so he's still very good. That rushing analysis misses one key factor: Rice's impact in the Ravens' passing attack.

Going into the 2012 NFL draft, Pierce was rated as below average in the passing game on his ESPN Insider draft profile:

"Limited in this area. Often substituted out during obvious passing situations. Has good size and strength in pass pro, but needs work with technique and is not overly aggressive in this area. Goes to the well too often with cut blocks. Displays adequate hands and can make the routine catches. However, lacks elite ball skills and can struggle with throws outside of the frame. Does not show great suddenness or polish with routes to consistently create separation from underneath routes."


Since Pierce managed to be targeted just 11 times last season, it's safe to assume that the Ravens don't have enough confidence in Pierce as a receiver to expand his opportunities in this area. Therefore, Rice can still be expected to receive the opportunities of an elite pass-catching running back, which puts the 81 targets he received last year as a floor of what to expect in 2013.

While Rice is the superior red-zone back and receiving option, there is cause for concern for Rice owners. Rice's production after contact significantly fell off in 2012. According to ESPN's Stats & Information, Rice acquired 425 of his 1,621 total yards last season after being substantially contacted by a defender. Those 425 yards represent 26 percent of his yardage totals.

While his rushing yards after contact remained similar, his receiving production took the big hit in this metric. In 2012, he totaled just 81 of his 478 (17 percent) receiving yards after contact. In his three previous seasons, he had acquired almost 32 percent of his receiving yardage after contact. This change in Rice's performance after contact is significant and should not be dismissed. That said, because of Pierce's lack of adequate passing game skills, Rice's role as the clear primary back in the Ravens offense is safe for 2013. However, those of you in keeper and/or dynasty leagues are advised to sell Rice during the season if his yards after contact performance doesn't rebound, because the Ravens will have no choice but to look for a complete back to replace Rice in the future.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Cowboys lose 'juice' with Dunbar injury

By Tim MacMahon | ESPNDallas.com

IRVING, Texas – The Cowboys' offense loses some “juice” with scatback Lance Dunbar sidelined by a sprained foot.

That’s the term coach Jason Garrett and quarterback Tony Romo use to describe Dunbar’s dynamic quickness and explosiveness. It’s what makes Dunbar, a second-year player who was undrafted out of North Texas, unique among the four running backs likely to make the Cowboys’ roster.

Never mind the unimpressive numbers from Dunbar’s rookie season, when he gained 75 yards on 21 carries and caught six passes for 33 yards. He had carved out a significant role as a change-of-pace and third-down back behind DeMarco Murray.

The Cowboys envision Dunbar as their version of Darren Sproles, the New Orleans Saints’ undersized spark plug. They are especially enamored by his receiving skills and ability to make plays in space, a couple of attributes Dunbar displayed on his 43-yard catch-and-run that unfortunately ended with a fumble inside the Arizona 5 in Saturday’s preseason loss.

“Totally forgive him,” Jerry Jones said after the game. “I’m so glad our fans got to see him. He’s quick, fast and makes plays.”

That will be the last fans see of Dunbar making plays for at least three or four weeks. The season opener against the New York Giants is scheduled for three weeks and a day after Dunbar suffered the injury.

Murray missed six games with a sprained foot last season. If Dunbar takes that long to recover, he’s in jeopardy of missing the first three or four games of the season.

A sprained foot is especially a concern for a player whose best trait is his quickness. The Cowboys can only hope that Dunbar recovers quickly and brings the juice when he comes back.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Ranking the top 50 dynasty players[/h][h=3]Trent Richardson tops the list of players in the dynasty fantasy football format[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

Although not as common as standard fantasy football leagues, dynasty leagues are as close to owning an NFL franchise as most fans will usually come. Dynasty leagues differ from standard leagues in that once a draft is held, owners have the option to keep all of their roster. The key, of course, is about maximizing positional value.

Each subsequent year, a draft is held consisting only of incoming rookies. Owners must decide whether the rookies have more value than the players on their team -- much like a real NFL franchise. Being a dynasty owner is a year-round project -- even when games aren't being played, player values rise and fall and there are plenty of roster additions and trades in the offseason.

In terms of strategy, I tend to be more conservative with my first couple of picks and get riskier as the rounds progress. Owners want to balance winning in the short term with having a team built for the long haul.

Below is my ranking of the top 50 dynasty players if your league is holding a draft before the 2013 NFL season (with standard fantasy scoring).


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<!--END INLINE MUG-->1. Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns
Go back and look at some of the production of Norv Turner running backs. Maybe you recall some of the fantasy production that Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson provided not so long ago? Turner believes in feeding a lead back over and over and Richardson's supporting cast in Cleveland is improving. He is young and an elite talent who also catches the ball very well. If you recall, I believe he will be the top running back in both 2015 and 2016, so picking him No. 1 overall was very easy for me.
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<!--END INLINE MUG-->2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy just turned 25 years old and hasn't even approached his prime yet. There are many, many carries to go around in Chip Kelly's new offense and while McCoy might share the load, volume as a runner and receiver will not be a problem. The Eagles could have a very good offensive line for years to come and few players optimize their touches like McCoy.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->3. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles' carry numbers could decrease with Andy Reid now in charge of the Chiefs' offense, but his reception totals could skyrocket and his overall usage should be more effective. Injuries are a concern for him, but he has elite speed and averaged 5.3 yards a carry last season coming off his ACL tear.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->4. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
I'm not totally sold that Spiller is equipped to handle a massive workload like Richardson or Doug Martin, but I am sold that he can do an awful lot with very little. This new Bills offense -- with a running threat at quarterback in EJ Manuel -- also should help him a great deal. And, like McCoy and Charles, Spiller is going to catch a lot of passes. He broke out in the second half of last season.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->5. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Most believe this is too far down the list for Martin, and I can certainly respect that. But I view Martin as a high-end talent, not an elite one. He will have a big workload, including short-yardage work, as well as many catches. He is the foundation of Tampa Bay's offense. Drafting Martin very high in your dynasty startup is a safe move.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
Johnson is an epic talent who has lived up to his ridiculous hype and is in an extremely pass-heavy offense with a supremely talented quarterback force-feeding him the football. It is the perfect storm for an elite WR. And in dynasty, this is the safest pick you can make.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->7. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
I have Bryant just edging out A.J. Green for the receiver spot right behind Megatron. That was a tough call, but I have been extremely impressed with what I've seen from Bryant so far in the 2013 preseason and the second half of 2012. Tony Romo throwing to him was instrumental in his high ranking.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->8. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Green is a superstar and could very well be an all-time great wideout. I think he will be great for another 10 years. Do cartwheels if you have this guy on your dynasty squad and never consider trading him. It's really that simple with Green.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->9. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Watch the tape of the Falcons' offense. Opposing defenses are already more afraid of Jones than they are Roddy White, who obviously is still a great player in his own right. Jones' physical tools are elite, so just wait until he really learns how to the play the position …

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->10. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
While there are a lot of mouths to feed in Denver, Peyton Manning is fully capable of feeding all them -- and Thomas will be the Broncos' biggest eater. This ultra-talented wideout is only getting better and should be an elite fantasy player for years to come.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->11. Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
Graham entered the league with very little football experience. He has come a long way in a short time and obviously is in ideal conditions for success. What's scary is that he's almost uncoverable, but he still is at the tip of the iceberg in terms what he is capable of.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->12. Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
Morris has much more value in a standard scoring system than in PPR. I don't worry that Mike Shanahan will inexplicably start using a committee backfield and I believe Morris is here to stay, while also benefiting a great deal from having Robert Griffin III's great run threat with him in the backfield.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->13. Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots
The Patriots have a great running game, and it is all about Ridley. New England has an outstanding offense and runs a ton of plays, meaning touchdowns for Ridley. He's also a much better pure talent than many seem to realize.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->14. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Gronk's injury history, especially his back and current situation, has to give owners some pause, but he is still a very young player and produces like no other tight end. I will roll the dice on him early for dynasty. If you take Gronkowski high in a dynasty draft, back him up with a young, talented upside tight end (there are many of those to choose from). However -- and this is not an exaggeration -- Gronkowski has a chance to go down as the greatest tight end the NFL has ever known. I will gamble on his greatness.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->15. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers is the only quarterback I have in my top 20, which tells you how good I think he is. More so in dynasty compared to redraft, I value this position. Rodgers is the best football player on the planet and should be for years to come.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->16. Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler loves Marshall for obvious reasons. He feeds him relentlessly, although I do expect Marshall's targets to decrease in Marc Trestman's offense. Still, Marshall produces week after week and year after year. His production also isn't extremely reliant on a physical skill set that will diminish over the next few seasons. He's a stud and isn't going away soon.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->17. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Some view Peterson as the very best player in dynasty. He is special and coming off a historic season. And frankly, I don't want to doubt him. But he is too old for what I want to accomplish in a startup dynasty draft. I do, however, think we will soon stop comparing Peterson to greats of this generation and instead compare him to players such as Walter Payton and Jim Brown when our grandkids ask us about the best ever to play the position.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->18. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Rice has logged a ton of touches over the past few seasons, so there is some concern about him wearing down. But he also consistently puts up big numbers season after season and is very durable.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->19. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Like Rice, Foster could be hitting his career wall in the very near future. What will you be able to trade for him one year from now if he shows more signs of aging in 2013? He is, though, still a highly productive player in a run-first offense.

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<!--END INLINE MUG-->20. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Lynch runs so hard and is a true feature back, but the question is how long he can keep it up. Christine Michael -- who I love for dynasty, by the way -- was drafted early for a reason and it could be Michael's job as soon as next year at this time. Lynch should have a great deal of value this season, but it could diminish with Michael and Robert Turbin in the backfield.


<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top dynasty players 21-50[/h]
No.PlayerPositionTeam
21.Andrew LuckQBIndianapolis Colts
22.Randall CobbWRGreen Bay Packers
23.Matt ForteRBChicago Bears
24.Cam NewtonQBCarolina Panthers
25.Hakeem NicksWRNew York Giants
26.Larry FitzgeraldWRArizona Cardinals
27.Colin KaepernickQBSan Francisco 49ers
28.Russell WilsonQBSeattle Seahawks
29.Robert Griffin IIIQBWashington Redskins
30.Victor CruzWRNew York Giants
31.David WilsonRBNew York Giants
32.Lamar MillerRBMiami Dolphins
33.Le'Veon BellRBPittsburgh Steelers
34.Giovani BernardRBCincinnati Bengals
35.Percy HarvinWRSeattle Seahawks
36.Matthew StaffordQBDetroit Lions
37.Matt RyanQBAtlanta Falcons
38.Jordy NelsonWRGreen Bay Packers
39.Vincent JacksonWRTampa Bay Buccaneers
40.Eddie LacyRBGreen Bay Packers
41.Montee BallRBDenver Broncos
42.Chris JohnsonRBTennessee Titans
43.Dwayne BoweWRKansas City Chiefs
44.Michael CrabtreeWRSan Francisco 49ers
45.Roddy WhiteWRAtlanta Falcons
46.Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints
47.Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots
48.Peyton ManningQBDenver Broncos
49.Tony RomoQBDallas Cowboys
50.Torrey SmithWRBaltimore Ravens

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hacheman@therx.com
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Top 10 running back handcuff options
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Eric Karabell

In most of the obvious situations in which a fantasy owner would handcuff a backup running back, the starter is a proven veteran coming off a successful 2012 season. There’s Arian Foster and Ben Tate with the run-heavy Houston Texans, and Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce with the champion Baltimore Ravens. Plus, there’s at least some reason to believe that if top overall pick Adrian Peterson went down again with a serious injury, Minnesota Vikings reserve Toby Gerhart could at least be a reasonable fantasy flex option while filling in.

Then there are the New York Giants, with electric second-year option David Wilson being chosen as a top-20 option among running backs despite producing fewer fantasy points, rushing and receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2012 than his handcuff choice, larger veteran Andre Brown. It’s an odd situation, to some degree, but certainly a relevant one. Yes, Wilson has the top-10 upside, but there are certainly red flags with him, whether it’s about him holding onto the football, being a factor on third downs or getting touches near the goal line. With Brown, it’s about the health. Regardless, Brown is the Wilson handcuff at this point, and a pretty attractive one at that, but don’t be shocked if these guys switch roles, making Wilson the handcuff.

This situation and many others bear monitoring this season, so let’s take a look at the top 10 handcuff situations from a fantasy aspect.

1. Ben Tate, Houston Texans: This situation remains fluid, as Foster hasn’t been healthy this offseason and his availability for early September seems suspect. Tate did not have a successful 2012 season, but he approached 1,000 rushing yards the year before despite clear backup status, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. If we knew today that Foster was out for the season, Tate would just miss cracking my top 10 running backs. I’m drafting him before the 10th round whether I own Foster or not.

2. Andre Brown, New York Giants: Well-traveled Brown hasn’t been able to stay healthy in his career, but, as he showed in 2012, he’s an enticing size-speed combination and a beast near the goal line. At worst, Brown figures to handle the carries inside the 5-yard line. At most, he could be a 1,000-yard back, as well. I’m drafting him ahead of Tate, for, even in a time share, he’s a flex possibility.

3. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals: In ESPN ADP, it’s actually Bernard, the first running back chosen in the recent NFL draft, as the more attractive option rather than likely starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis, making him seem like an odd handcuff. Perhaps the Law Firm is the handcuff? Well, Bernard doesn’t have the starting role yet. The diminutive North Carolina product looks a bit like Darren Sproles, and he has the pass-catching chops to prove it. Green-Ellis is larger, and, although he's ineffective at the goal line, that won’t stop the Bengals from running him into the line repeatedly anyway. Certainly the rookie is the upside option, but before the seventh or eighth round seems premature.

4. Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens: Pierce is probably being overrated just a tad. There’s no questioning his talent, and the fact he averaged nearly 5 yards per tote as a rookie is impressive, but there’s nothing wrong with Rice. He’s not hurt, like Foster, or raw and unproven, like Bernard and Wilson. Rice is in my top five overall. I’m drafting Pierce if I own Rice, but even then, given that Rice never misses a game, I don’t see scenarios in which I’d use Pierce.

5. Bryce Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Starter LeSean McCoy is healthy and ready to handle a heavy workload in Chip Kelly’s new offensive system, but Brown certainly made his mark -- ever so briefly -- a year ago. In Weeks 12 and 13, Brown exploded for 26 and 27 standard fantasy points, although he did little before that and after. I think Brown is strictly the team’s backup, and it’s no time share, and it’s even possible that Chris Polk will usurp the No. 2 spot on the depth chart, but Brown has proved his upside if given major touches.

6. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots: Stevan Ridley seems primed for a big season, but Vereen is the more versatile option, capable of lining up outside and catching passes, and this team seems to need receiving options. As with others previously mentioned, Vereen is being chosen in all leagues and could be an occasional flex option even as the handcuff.

7. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: There are miles on the 32-year-old’s tires, and those tires seem to keep hitting potholes. Jackson has played in a mere 10 games each of the past two seasons and dynamic C.J. Spiller is primed to handle the majority of the workload and challenge the big boys in fantasy. Jackson still has game, and, if he gets the chance to show it, fantasy owners will take notice.

8. Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs: The third-rounder from Arkansas is clearly the handcuff to Jamaal Charles, which matters because Charles is dealing with a foot injury. Davis has battled injury since the 2010 season, but, in Andy Reid’s West Coast offense, the lead running back gets used quite a bit -- some would say abused -- so if Charles can’t play, Davis would assume his valuable touches.

9. Marcel Reece, Oakland Raiders: When looking for an interesting handcuff running back, it’s often wise to seek out the least durable starters. Hello there, Darren McFadden! Reece, a large fullback with excellent pass-catching skills, might not be the actual McFadden backup -- it’s probably uninspiring Rashad Jennings -- but he’s likely to see enough touches to matter in PPR formats. And if McFadden and Jennings are hurt, Reece becomes flex-worthy, just like last November.

10. Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings: Well, I’ve taken Peterson in multiple drafts already and haven’t felt the need to handcuff Gerhart to him, but it’s a reasonable move. Perhaps it’s because I trust Peterson to have another monster season. Gerhart barely saw the field a year ago, earning a mere 50 rushing attempts, but he held his own in 2011 when pushed into significant duty.

Others of note: Some would say Tennessee Titans running back Shonn Greene matters because Chris Johnson has been rather inconsistent and the team improved its offensive line, but it’s still Shonn Greene, no? Still, spend a late pick on him if you have Johnson. … Rookie Eddie Lacy figures to assume starting duties with the Green Bay Packers, and most would presume fellow rook Johnathan Franklin is next in line, but it sure looks as if DuJuan Harris is the handcuff. I wouldn’t call Harris draft-worthy, and Franklin is dropping in my ranks. … I have little faith that Rashard Mendenhall will resurrect his career with the Arizona Cardinals to the point of being more than a flex option, but I’m quickly giving up on constantly hurt Ryan Williams as his handcuff. It appears Stepfan Taylor, perfectly competent at Stanford, went to the right team. … I love Matt Forte in the Chicago Bears' new offense, but Michael Bush is the goal-line option. … If I’m going to rip Oakland’s McFadden, the other top-25 running back I avoid at all costs should be mentioned: It’s Dallas Cowboys speedster DeMarco Murray. I have little doubt about his skills, but health is a skill, too, and he’s missing it. Lance Dunbar is next in line, but he’s out a month with a sprained foot, making rookie Joseph Randle potentially valuable. … I think Reggie Bush will stay healthy, but Mikel Leshoure should get chances near the goal line. … Can we say the Denver Broncos have a handcuff when we don’t know who the starter is? Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball have shown flaws in preseason action, perhaps making Knowshon Moreno, better than you think last season, relevant indeed.


[h=4]Running Back/Handcuff Chart[/h]
TEAM STARTER HANDCUFF STEALTH
Arizona Rashard Mendenhall Ryan Williams Stepfan Taylor
Atlanta Steven Jackson Jacquizz Rodgers Jason Snelling
Baltimore Ray Rice Bernard Pierce Anthony Allen
Buffalo C.J. Spiller Fred Jackson Tashard Choice
Carolina DeAngelo Williams Jonathan Stewart Kenjon Barner
Chicago Matt Forte Michael Bush Armando Allen
Cincinnati BenJarvus Green-Ellis Giovani Bernard Bernard Scott
Cleveland Trent Richardson Montario Hardesty Brandon Jackson
Dallas DeMarco Murray Lance Dunbar Joseph Randle
Denver Montee Ball Ronnie Hillman Knowshon Moreno
Detroit Reggie Bush Mikel Leshoure Joique Bell
Green Bay Eddie Lacy DuJuan Harris Johnathan Franklin
Houston Arian Foster Ben Tate Deji Karim
Indianapolis Ahmad Bradshaw Vick Ballard Donald Brown
Jacksonville Maurice Jones-Drew Justin Forsett Denard Robinson
Kansas City Jamaal Charles Knile Davis Shaun Draughn
Miami Lamar Miller Daniel Thomas Mike Gillislee
Minnesota Adrian Peterson Toby Gerhart Joe Banyard
New England Stevan Ridley Shane Vereen LeGarrette Blount
New Orleans Mark Ingram Pierre Thomas Darren Sproles
New York Giants David Wilson Andre Brown Ryan Torain
New York Jets Chris Ivory Bilal Powell Mike Goodson
Oakland Darren McFadden Rashad Jennings Marcel Reece
Philadelphia LeSean McCoy Bryce Brown Chris Polk
Pittsburgh Le'Veon Bell Jonathan Dwyer Isaac Redman
San Diego Ryan Mathews Ronnie Brown Danny Woodhead
Seattle Marshawn Lynch Robert Turbin Christine Michael
San Francisco Frank Gore Kendall Hunter LaMichael James
St. Louis Daryl Richardson Isaiah Pead Zac Stacy
Tampa Bay Doug Martin Peyton Hillis Mike James
Tennessee Chris Johnson Shonn Greene Jalen Parmele
Washington Alfred Morris Roy Helu Evan Royster

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Most overvalued fantasy QBs[/h][h=3]Tom Brady among 10 QBs being drafted too high this season[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

The glut of quality fantasy quarterback prospects has led to a number of players being undervalued at that position -- click the links above for my undervalued players at four positions. Oddly enough though, it hasn't stopped fantasy owners from overvaluing a number of passers.
This first of a four-part series looks to assist fantasy owners by identifying players who are overvalued, starting with the 10 quarterbacks who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my own value analysis. They range from long-tenured veterans (whose name value carries too much weight with some fantasy owners) to rising young players of whom some fantasy owners are expecting too much.

Here are my 10 most overvalued fantasy quarterbacks.

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[h=3]1. Tom Brady[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 21.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 4
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 8

Why is Brady being drafted so early? He ended the 2012 season in a slump. His 10.1 vertical YPA (VYPA, a measure of productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked 28th in the league last year and his stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA, production on passes thrown 20 or more yards) placed 23rd.
<OFFER>Brady's pass-catching corps consists of three players with significant injury or durability issues (Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman) along with a bunch of rookies and unproven veterans. Add in a schedule that my draft guide has ranked as the fourth-toughest among quarterbacks, and it is a lot for Brady to overcome. He might end up as a top-five fantasy quarterback, but the odds are just as good he'll end up outside of that area.

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[h=3]2. Colin Kaepernick[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 41.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 7
TFS positional rank: No. 10

Kaepernick did post some incredible numbers last year (second in VYPA and first in SVYPA) and he racked up 142 fantasy points in his last eight games. Prorate that over the course of full season and it equals 284 points. That sounds like a really high number until we look back and notice that seven quarterbacks had more than 284 points last season.
A repeat of that showing would make Kaepernick a bit overvalued to begin with, and that doesn't even take into account some of his negatives. Every defense in the NFL is working overtime to slow the read-option and Kaepernick isn't as good at producing points on scramble plays as might be generally thought. The 49ers receiving corps took a huge hit with Michael Crabtree's injury and San Francisco will still be a run-first team. All of this doesn't drop Kaepernick outside of QB1 territory, but it does place him on the precipice between QB1 and QB2.

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[h=3]3. Matthew Stafford[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 57.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 9
TFS positional rank: No. 11

This is a case where the adage about not overvaluing players after a career season seems apt. Stafford threw 740 passes last year (if penalty plays are included), which is 60 more than Drew Brees. He also became only the fourth quarterback to throw for 5,000 or more yards.
Those prolific numbers sound great, but his metrics fell short in a number of areas. Stafford didn't lead the league in vertical passes (Andrew Luck had 12 more) and he was fourth in stretch vertical passes. Eighteen quarterbacks had more touchdown throws and only four threw more interceptions. His 6.9 overall YPA mark ranked tied for 19th, a total that seems impossibly low given that Stafford threw 200 passes to Calvin Johnson during Johnson's all-time great season.

Detroit's coaching brain trust surely realizes that throwing the ball this often is not a formula for success (they did go 4-12 last season), and therefore will be doing all they can to get this number back to somewhere near the 650-attempt range. Factor in the Lions' tough schedule (Stafford is tied for 27th in the matchup strength category) and it means a regression from last year is likely in order.

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[h=3]4. Andrew Luck[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 70.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 11
TFS positional rank: No. 12

Last season, Luck was by far the most vertically inclined passer in the NFL. His 243 vertical attempts were 35 more than Brees (208) and 41 more than Peyton Manning (202).
That number isn't going to plummet in new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's offense, but it is likely to decline. To get an idea how much it will decline, consider this: Vertical passes accounted for 37.3 percent of Luck's aerials last season. In his senior campaign at Stanford with Hamilton as his offensive coordinator, vertical passes accounted for 33.3 percent of Luck's throws. If that same 4 percent decline happens in 2013, it would mean a drop of about 28 vertical passes.
Luck ranked ninth in quarterback fantasy points last year, but was only four points ahead of the No. 11 passer (Russell Wilson). With a drop-off in downfield passing, he is likely to fall by at least two spots in quarterback points and could decline a step or two below that.

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[h=3]5. Joe Flacco[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 109.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 15
TFS positional rank: No. 21

Flacco has a ton of factors going against him. He isn't a high-volume passer, as he had 555 attempts last year (if penalties are included), a total that ranked tied for 13th in that category. His 3.0 percent mark in the bad decision rate (BDR -- a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity) had him tied for 32nd, and thus puts him on the wrong side of the risk management ledger.
The Ravens' wide receiving corps is composed of an inconsistent WR1 (Torrey Smith), an even more inconsistent WR2 (Jacoby Jones) and a hodgepodge of unproven wideouts. Losing tight end Dennis Pitta to a season-ending injury makes the pass target situation even worse. A schedule that ranks as the third-toughest among quarterbacks closes out the deal, and indicates Flacco should be considered more of a low-end QB2/high-end QB3 than a mid-range QB2.

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[h=3]6. Michael Vick[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 111.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 18

The combination of Vick's history of sporadically posting otherworldly fantasy point totals and Chip Kelly's willingness to adapt his offensive approach to his team's talents make for a potentially compelling fantasy quarterback.
Those benefits are in many ways more than offset by Vick's downsides, even though he was named the starting QB. Kelly's Oregon teams were exceptionally good at protecting the football (the Ducks led the nation in turnover differential last season), and that is something the Eagles will be hard-pressed to do with Vick under center. He has a long history of posting very high BDR totals and 2012 was no exception (3.0 percent, tied for 32nd).
Losing Jeremy Maclin to a season-ending injury also hurt the receiving corps. Put all of these factors together with Vick's longstanding durability issues and it makes him an incredibly risky QB2.

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[h=3]7. Matt Schaub[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 120.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 17
TFS positional rank: No. 22

At first glance, Schaub looks like a very solid backup fantasy quarterback. He has a superb WR1 in Andre Johnson, a strong tight end in Owen Daniels and a great run game that opens up the passing attack.
Upon closer examination, however, that perception starts to fade. Schaub had a mediocre total attempt volume (tied for 14th), vertical attempt volume (ranked 17th) and one of the lowest stretch vertical target rates in the league (ranked 32nd). He threw only eight vertical touchdown passes last year (ranked 23rd). That shows the Houston passing game is built more to set up rushing touchdowns than it is to close out drives. These were major contributing factors for Schaub posting six single-digit fantasy point games last year, and indicate he just isn't consistent enough to be considered a good QB2, especially when there are so many consistent QB2 options out there.

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[h=3]8. Andy Dalton[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 125.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 18
TFS positional rank: No. 25

When Dalton is on his game, he can rack up quality fantasy numbers (20 or more points in six games last season). The trouble is Dalton posts those numbers in spite of -- rather than because of -- the metrics.
His 9.6 VYPA ranked 32nd and was lower than the VYPA marks posted by Mark Sanchez, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb or Philip Rivers. Stretch vertical passes accounted for only 9.1 percent of his overall throws, a total that was higher than only five other quarterbacks. The Bengals' 2013 opponent slate is quite brutal, and gives Dalton the second-lowest quarterback schedule strength.
If Cincinnati's offense were to lose A.J. Green for any length of time it would obliterate the receiving corps, and leave Dalton with zero high-quality targets. It is possible he will outplay his metrics once again, but it is a low-percentage play to expect it to happen two seasons in a row.

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[h=3]9. EJ Manuel[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 140.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS positional rank: No. 28

Manuel's stock is rising dramatically (he's had a 27.7 percent increase in ADP over the past seven days) in part because there is an expectation he can be like last year's great rookie quarterbacks and provide immediate fantasy impact.
While Buffalo does have the makings of a very good offense, it is still a run-first offense that revolves around the talents of C.J. Spiller. Manuel's college numbers were very good in some ways, but he threw for fewer than 200 yards in six games last season and had zero or one touchdown pass in seven. He may add some punch via scrambling, but his 866 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons equates to 33.3 yards per game and a touchdown roughly every three games.
That really isn't much added value, and it is difficult to imagine either of those rushing or passing marks moving up at the NFL level. Account for Manuel's recent injury and it means it is quite unlikely he will be the next Russell Wilson or Robert Griffin III.

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[h=3]10. Geno Smith[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 28
TFS positional rank: No. 32

Last season, Smith had the services of two top-flight receivers (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and yet he still ended up finishing fifth in the Big 12 in YPA among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts. This was one of multiple reasons Smith was among the most overrated draft prospects in the 2013 NFL draft.
An ankle injury contributed to a practice session that Rex Ryan labeled as "brutal" and that same injury prevented Smith from playing in a recent preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Smith is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues, but the truth of the matter is that number should be 0.0 percent.
 

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Super-Deep Sleepers to watch

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Dang it, Kenbrell Thompkins!

Why, oh why, did Thompkins have to show the goods so early in training camp? If he'd simply waited, he might've been a candidate for my annual "Super-Deep Sleeper" list. Alas, the undrafted rookie took New England Patriots camp by storm and now looks like a starting pass-catcher in Tom Brady's offense. That means he and fellow undrafted rookie Zach Sudfeld -- possibly the Pats' starting Week 1 tight end -- will be drafted in all fantasy leagues. And that means they're not eligible for this list.


Folks, this list is deep. In fact, outside of deeper dynasty leagues, it's doubtful any of the names I'm about to mention should be drafted. Instead, in redraft or shallow keeper leagues, these are names to file away. I think they're all talented, and all reside in situations with at least a bit of potential. Perhaps it'll take an injury to activate them. Maybe they're ready to assert themselves over a weak starter. But when a few of these names finally get bandied about by the mainstream public once the regular season begins, you'll remember them and be ready to pounce.

Some undoubtedly will amount to nothing. I mean, I'm listing third- and fourth-stringers here. In some cases, I might be listing practice squad candidates. But if history is a guide, some of these dudes will turn into players, this year or in the near future. Here's the list of all the men I've picked for this column. Many were duds, but some worked out swimmingly:

2008: Anthony Alridge, David Clowney, Will Franklin, Roy Hall, Tim Hightower, Jason Hill, Jalen Parmele, Antonio Pittman, Marcus Thomas, Mike Sims-Walker

2009: Andre Caldwell, Austin Collie, James Davis, Jermichael Finley, Arian Foster, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Marko Mitchell, Bernard Scott, D.J. Ware

2010: Andre Brown, Deon Butler, Kareem Huggins, Chris Ivory, Jeremiah Johnson, Steve Johnson, Legedu Naanee, Isaac Redman, Brian Robiskie, Keiland Williams

2011: Dezmon Briscoe, Delone Carter, Eric Decker, Jamie Harper, Kendall Hunter, Denarius Moore, Jordan Norwood, Julius Thomas, Johnny White, Damian Williams

2012: Bryce Brown, Jordan Cameron, Kellen Davis, Chris Givens, Alex Green, Lestar Jean, Jeremy Kerley, Mohamed Sanu, Michael Smith, Rod Streater

Let's get to this year's edition of the Super-Deep Sleeper list:

Kenjon Barner, RB, Carolina Panthers: Barner played the LaMichael James role in Chip Kelly's University of Oregon offense last year and scored 23 total TDs with 2,023 yards from scrimmage. At 5-foot-9 and 196 pounds with 4.4 speed, Barner faces the same question that's likely to plague James with the San Francisco 49ers: He's a great athlete, but can he be an every-down back in the NFL? After all, over the past decade, the only running back of a comparable size to Barner and James who posted a 1,000-yard rushing season is Warrick Dunn. Add the crowded Panthers backfield, where DeAngelo Williams will start and a rehabbing Jonathan Stewart is in the wings, and you understand Barner's apparent rookie limitations. Nevertheless, you couldn't watch Barner last season and not be excited by his wheels. He could play on third downs right away (especially if Stewart can't go), and could post a few highlight-reel long runs that get his career off to a strong start.

Michael Cox, RB, New York Giants: An unheralded kid from UMass goes to the Giants. How can it not work, eh, Victor Cruz fans? Listen, Cox still has time to get himself cut from New York's roster. He's a rookie compensatory seventh-rounder on a squad with two clear starters, David Wilson and Andre Brown. Plus Cox's collegiate numbers frankly stunk; he transferred from Michigan and played at UMass only in his senior year, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. But realize that UMass was severely overmatched in its first season in FBS. Cox was a terrific schoolboy runner in Massachusetts and runs a 4.5 40 at 220 pounds. I put Andre Brown on this list three years ago, and I see a lot of Brown in Cox. Even if Da'Rel Scott beats out Cox, I think the kid has an NFL future.

Patrick Edwards, WR, Detroit Lions: Edwards was a weapon for Case Keenum at the University of Houston, but went undrafted in '12 and spent last season on the Lions' practice squad. It's understandable: Edwards goes 5-9 and 172 pounds. At that size, it's obvious he'll only ever be a slot wideout in the NFL. But Edwards is a scary little dude in the open field: He's got great quicks, and a good amount of long speed, too. This former collegiate walk-on is used to playing the underdog role, and there's no question when you line him up alongside players such as rookie Corey Fuller and second-year man Kris Durham that he doesn't fill the uniform quite the same way. Plus, Ryan Broyles (one of my 2013 Flag Players) is already a great bet to produce out of the slot if he stays healthy. But Broyles is coming off a torn ACL, his second in two years. If he falters, I think Edwards will benefit. Matthew Stafford needs weapons that are legitimately dangerous, something that no longer can be said about Nate Burleson. Edwards might fill that bill; he reminds me a bit of T.Y. Hilton.

Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Figuring out where Ellington falls on the "smaller" RB scale is a challenge. Is his upside David Wilson, i.e., an electric change-of-direction player with a big back's penchant for contact? Could he be fellow Clemson alum C.J. Spiller, i.e., a straight-line burner who'll dance a little too much but also make huge plays? I would say no to both of those; he's not the freaky athlete Wilson is, and he's just not a sprinter. A better comparison might be Kendall Hunter, a favorite of mine a few years ago out of Oklahoma State who was coming into his own before a torn Achilles sidelined him last season. I see some of the same instinct and leg drive out of Ellington, although he definitely could be more decisive in his cuts and drift less. Anyway, I was shocked when Ellington lasted into the sixth round of April's draft, and he landed in a good spot for a young RB. I was ready to proclaim Ryan Williams a favorite sleeper this season, but he has been shelved already because of knee troubles and could be cut. Starter Rashard Mendenhall is a plodder who could use a dynamic complement, and that could be Ellington. Fellow rookie Stepfan Taylor is also on hand, but I prefer Ellington's dash to Taylor's ho-hum Mendenhall impersonation.

Jonas Gray, RB, Miami Dolphins: Gray tore his right ACL late in his senior year at Notre Dame and went undrafted in '12, essentially taking a redshirt rookie year with the Dolphins. A thick 223 pounds at 5-9, Gray is a scheme fit for Miami: He's a one-cut power back running behind the Fins' zone-blocking scheme. No doubt Lamar Miller is the starter in '13, and the team has talked up Daniel Thomas as the backup and short-yardage specialist. Plus, Mike Gillislee -- whom I like and think also has a viable pro career ahead of him -- is on this depth chart. But Gillislee is probably too big a name for the Super-Deep Sleeper list, as he probably could be drafted in 12-team redraft leagues. Gray shouldn't be drafted at all in any format except deep dynasty, but he's worth monitoring. Although Miller has claimed quite a lot of hype because of his speed, there isn't a proven commodity in this entire backfield.


Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seattle Seahawks: After Percy Harvin's hip surgery, the Seahawks' WR corps looks much the same as '12, with Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin starting. But Rice is already dealing with a sore knee and doesn't exactly have a clean health history. Kearse has started two exhibition games in Rice's place and produced a TD catch in each, indicating that this undrafted kid who spent last year on Seattle's special teams is improving. (He also returned a kickoff for a TD on Saturday night.) At 6-2 and 205 pounds, he has outside-receiver size, and he boasts 4.43 jets, too. I'm not so callow as to believe Kearse will jump ahead of any of the three veteran starters on this depth chart. But if any head coach is willing to reward on-field improvement and let it translate to increased playing time, it's Pete Carroll.

Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers: For a Super Bowl contender, the state of this WR corps is ugly. Anquan Boldin looked like a glorified tight end last regular season (before his insane playoff run), and Michael Crabtree is out, leaving so-so options such as Kyle Williams, Jon Baldwin, Marlon Moore and Ricardo Lockette fighting for legit playing time. I like the Austin Collie signing as a high-upside, low-risk gambit for the Niners, but relying on him to be healthy all season might be folly. Patton is a rookie fourth-rounder who fractured a finger early in training camp and only recently was cleared for contact. He has yet to play in a preseason game, so it's probably wishful thinking to believe he will be in the Week 1 game plan. I really liked Patton's Louisiana Tech game tape, though. His college routes stand out for being pro-worthy, and his hands are consistent. He's not huge (6 feet, 204 pounds) or a burner, but he has enough size and speed to make it on the outside. There's a chance this WR corps will go looking for help early in '13, and Patton could wind up being an internal answer.

Aldrick Robinson, WR, Washington Redskins: Let's imagine everything goes perfectly for Robert Griffin III. He's able to play Week 1 and play effectively, including scaring the pants off defenses with his legs. The last piece for RG III and the Shanahans is to truly open up the offense. I know many folks have the idea that Griffin was a terrific deep thrower last year, but the truth is he didn't toss it deep often at all. He was 26th in the NFL in attempts that traveled 30-plus yards in the air (18 in 15 games), and 27th in attempts that traveled 20-plus yards. Of course I'm not saying he can't go deep; his arm is spectacular. But he didn't go deep in '12. Pierre Garcon is a burner, for sure, but how confident are you he'll stay healthy? Robinson has even more flat-out speed than Garcon (although Garcon is a thicker WR better suited to all-around play). A third-year player out of SMU, Robinson scored three TDs for the Skins in '12. Sure, a mess of guys are on this depth chart, including similar-sized Santana Moss. But lumbering Leonard Hankerson and Josh Morgan don't impress me much. Robinson, at least, can be a game-breaker.


Khiry Robinson, RB, New Orleans Saints: I'll go ahead and admit right now I'm not overly familiar with West Texas A&M, the school where this rookie played. His sizzle reel looks good, but so does everyone's, and Robinson is taking a more massive step up than most, going from Division II to the NFL. Not only that but the Saints are still frustratingly stocked at RB, with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. But Chris Ivory is gone to the New York Jets and Robinson evokes Ivory, in size and in power. In mop-up duty through two exhibition games, Robinson has jumped off the screen (albeit against scrubs) in a way similar to how Ivory did back in '10. There's not much breakaway threat in Robinson, but, at 6 feet and 220 pounds, he looks like a punishing player to tackle. As was the case with Ivory the past three seasons, it would take an injury to the players ahead of him for Robinson to be anything close to fantasy relevant. But the fact that some Saints followers have him jumping ahead of Travaris Cadet on the depth chart (remember Cadet's preseason hype last year?) is interesting. I don't rule out the possibility that Robinson will hit the practice squad, but at this point, I actually think he'll make the team.

Cierre Wood, RB, Houston Texans: A touted high school prospect who came to Notre Dame amid fanfare, Wood had a collegiate career that underwhelmed. He was significantly more productive as a junior than as a senior, as Theo Riddick asserted himself in the backfield last year after Wood was suspended for two games. (Riddick almost made this Super-Deep Sleeper list himself; he was a sixth-rounder taken by the Lions.) In Houston, Wood has a chance to win the third-string job behind Arian Foster and Ben Tate; he's battling fellow undrafted rookies Dennis Johnson and Ray Graham. Wood has the NFL-readiest frame of that trio, although he didn't always run like a power back in college. At 213 pounds, he sometimes danced too much for coach Brian Kelly's liking, something the zone-blocking Texans won't abide. But I do like Wood's raw talent. His acceleration is uncommon for a guy his size, and his vision is solid. You can legitimately imagine him being a serviceable No. 1 back someday, and, on a depth chart with a couple of fairly injury-prone veterans, who knows? Maybe Wood will get involved in '13. Of course, he has to make the team first, and, in addition to his fellow rookies, veteran Deji Karim could be a threat.
 

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[h=1]Is Wilson a sure fantasy starter?[/h][h=3]Giants' second-year back looking to prove he can handle workload[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Is David Wilson a sure fantasy starter, despite just 75 career touches?

His ADP seems to say he is. Our rankings seem to say he is.

What gets lost in those valuations, however, is the meaning of the label "No. 17 running back by either ADP or our rankings," precisely where David Wilson stands in both to date. There was a time, not long ago, that a No. 17 running back was a surefire every-week fantasy starter.

Last season, however, the No. 17 running back, Michael Turner, scored 146 fantasy points. In the 10 previous seasons, No. 17 running backs averaged 159.1 fantasy points. It's fair to say, therefore, that the bottom half of today's draft-day RB2 class offers less production and demands greater week-to-week matchup management than those of the past.

Wilson might look the part of the every-week RB2, but in truth he resides in a nebulous range of draft-day running backs who either possess overwhelming upside but lack a promise of opportunity, carry significant injury or other risk factors, or both. Merely judging him by raw ranking/ADP does him a disservice.


To illustrate, let's break down his ADP. I've participated in 20 mock drafts during the past month; Wilson was selected as the 17th or 18th running back 13 times, and never earlier than 15th (once) or later than 21st (once). Overall, however, his selection spot has varied, from as early as 23rd (twice) to as late as 39th (once), and Mike Polikoff, who oversees our League Manager product, tells us that Wilson's low draft point in any ESPN draft overall is 106th. Wilson's overall ADP of 38.7 ranks 37th, which resides on a lower end of the scale. His value, therefore, is closely tied to your draft-day position strategy, as well as how well you regard his upside.

And what of that "upside"?

Wilson's final four games of 2012 best illustrate his upside. His 55 fantasy points ranked eighth among running backs -- despite his logging only 45 touches during that time -- and his 5.74 yards per carry and 2.16 yards after contact per carry both ranked fourth at the position. They exemplified the kind of speed and elusiveness that made him the New York Giants' first-round pick in 2012, and earned him a No. 3 ranking among running back prospects in that draft class.

At the same time, the earlier you select Wilson, the more trust you're putting in things like scouting reports and small sample sizes; these are some of the risk factors referred to above. There's another obstacle standing in Wilson's way: a big, bruising goal-line back named Andre Brown.

Wilson might be quick, but Brown had better yards-per-carry (5.27-5.04) and yards after contact-per-carry (2.45-1.89) marks last season. Brown is the better blocker; Pro Football Focus gave him a 1.2 rating as a blocker, compared with Wilson's minus-0.6. And Brown has the far superior reputation at the goal line, having converted eight of his 10 opportunities inside the opponent's 3-yard line. Wilson, comparatively, was 0-for-1.

It's true that Brown, with only 87 career touches to his credit, hardly boasts a more extensive track record than Wilson. But perhaps the only significant advantage Wilson possesses over Brown is health. Brown was limited to 10 games last season and has played just 14 of 64 career NFL games, mostly due to Achilles, concussion and fibula injuries. As the goal-line and short-yardage back, he's also at greater risk for future injuries.

That said, one ill-suited criticism of Wilson is his "track record of fumble-itis." It's a farce: Wilson fumbled his first NFL carry, resulting in a well-publicized trip to coach Tom Coughlin's doghouse, but he then tallied 70 consecutive carries without a fumble to conclude the season. To put that into historical perspective, in the past five seasons, Wilson's 71 carries per fumble ranked him 22nd out of the 36 rookies with at least 50 attempts.


Ex-Giant Tiki Barber, once known for ball-control issues, also serves as evidence that a player can improve in that department. After averaging 56.5 carries per fumble from 2002-04, he tallied 171.0 carries per fumble from 2005-06. Plus, among current surefire NFL starters, Reggie Bush (48.4), Ahmad Bradshaw (61.4), Darren McFadden (69.9) and Ryan Mathews (51.3) all have worse carry-per-fumble averages than Wilson's career rate.

Wilson and Brown might be an ideal partnership, Wilson getting the bulk of the first- and second-down work with Brown doing the dirty work up close, but that leaves fantasy owners banking on one of two things: (A) a long-term injury to Brown, opening up scoring opportunities for Wilson; or (B) Wilson vastly outplaying Brown in the season's early weeks and minimizing the latter's role.

Unfortunately, unless either of those scenarios occurs, anyone drafting Wilson earlier than his ADP -- or locking him in as a firm weekly RB2 -- is putting themself at risk of paying for the player's statistical-ceiling price, while ignoring a potentially greater value at, say, wide receiver. After all, only 11 running backs since 2001 managed a 200-fantasy-point season without the advantage of a double-digit touchdown total. Only three of them did so with fewer than eight scores. Without touchdowns, Wilson might have an exceedingly difficult time reaching the top 10 in fantasy scoring at his position.

Wilson is a tantalizing RB2 candidate -- and can be drafted as one -- but as the ADP data above shows, he's one of the most compelling examples of a player who could be selected too soon due to a running back position run. Some owners might -- and have -- been forced to do that, but it's hardly wise.

He is not the lock for consistent weekly production that you might think.
 

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[h=1]Chip Kelly's fantasy impact[/h][h=3]How will the Eagles coach affect the fantasy value of Philly's offensive stars?[/h]By Field Yates | ESPN Insider

The most anticipated arrival from the college ranks to the NFL in 2013 may not be top draft choice Eric Fisher, the Chiefs' new right tackle, or even more exciting prospects such as former West Virginia star Tavon Austin or Tyrann Mathieu, the talented former LSU safety known as the "Honey Badger."
Nope, the college cast-off that everyone in the NFL may be most eager to see in regular-season action is former Oregon and new Eagles head coach Chip Kelly, the mastermind behind an offensive juggernaut that routinely carved up opposing Pac-12 defenses during his time navigating the Ducks' offensive operation.
Kelly's blistering offensive tempo, catalyzed by a speed-based rushing attack, was far too much for most any NCAA defense to handle, but the NFL is a different beast, and some have wondered whether Kelly can buck the seemingly common occurrence of college coaches falling short at the pro level.
We've seen glimpses of what Kelly's offense will look like in two preseason games, and taking in a week's worth of joint practices against the Patriots provided a stronger grip on how Kelly will orchestrate his offense this season.
Some have assumed Kelly's offense in Philadelphia will replicate that which he ran at Oregon. To a degree, that's a safe assumption, as the most basic of tenets will remain the same. More precisely, Kelly's offense will again boil down to exposing numerical advantages -- create matchups featuring one defender having to account for two offensive players, for example, and exploiting them. But will those offensive advantages translate into big fantasy production for Philly's players?
Here's a look at how Kelly -- and his new Eagles offense -- will impact the team's four core offensive positions from a fantasy perspective.

<OFFER></OFFER>
Quarterback


Michael Vick, the recently named starter, has been sharp in two preseason games, completing 13 of 15 throws (with one touchdown and one interception), and adding two rushes for 20 yards. With the read-option incorporated in Philadelphia, Vick's athleticism will be on display, though he'll need to run smart, too. Vick's fearlessness as a runner has often left him vulnerable to big hits in the past.
The passing game for the Eagles will incorporate vertical elements (as we saw with Vick's 47-yard touchdown strike to DeSean Jackson against the Patriots earlier this month), but also will feature underneath throws as well as those at the line of scrimmage. In that sense, Vick's production will be tied to the run-after-catch ability of his receivers. With Jeremy Maclin down for the year with an ACL tear, the Eagles are without a top receiving option, but the cabinet isn't bare (more on the receivers later).
Fantasy owners seeking upside in their quarterbacks would hope that steadier protection from his offensive line (plus better health), the ability to use his feet and the incentive of playing for a new contract will lead to a bounce-back year from Vick.
Consider this stat line: 3,118 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 489 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 fumbles lost. It's impressive, but not otherworldly -- and not beyond Vick's reach.
That stat line is the 2012 iteration of Russell Wilson, the 11th-best quarterback in standard scoring leagues, who had some similar read-option opportunities.
Vick needs to cut back on turnovers, which have plagued him in recent seasons, but a locked-in Vick has top-eight potential if the stars align. That's also assuming he can stay healthy. If you're risk-averse, consider Vick as a backup in 10- to 12-team leagues.
Running back
No team ran more offensive plays during the first week of the preseason than the Eagles, reminding of the breakneck tempo from Kelly's Oregon days.
More snaps mean more touches, but not just for one player. The Patriots led the NFL in snaps last season with 1,191 offensive plays, and just five rushers had more attempts than Stevan Ridley's 290 carries. Ridley, ninth among running backs in fantasy scoring, accounted for just 55 percent of the Patriots' carries and had virtually zero receiving impact (six catches for just 51 yards).
The takeaway: A high volume of plays opens the door for multiple running backs to be fantasy relevant (Danny Woodhead finished 27th among backs in 2012).
In Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy is the workhorse who should be far better than he was 2012, provided he can stay healthy. He likely won't duplicate his 20-touchdown campaign from 2011, but he's due for more than three touchdowns (as he had last year). With opportunities to play in space and on the perimeter in the read-option attack, McCoy is an easy first-round pick, with the case to be made that he could ascend to top-six status.
But we knew that about McCoy already. Let's focus on the reserves, as a pair of backs has also seen extensive playing time in Philadelphia this preseason: Bryce Brown and Chris Polk, both rookies in 2012. Brown flashed in limited action, reminding why he was one of the top prep prospects over the past decade. Polk has battled injuries, but he too is an impressive prospect with upside.
We know more on Brown based on his 2012 film, and our inkling is that he'll emerge as the second back in Philadelphia (though Polk could play a factor, too). Given the number of plays Philadelphia projects to run, the backup runner is going to get his touches, both through rushes and receptions. By that logic, Brown is worth a late-round flier with the upside to be a flex player.

Wide Receiver


The Eagles already have lost a pair of receivers to ACL tears this preseason, thinning a group that produced only 12 touchdowns last season.
The name of note is Jackson, whose sprinter speed lends itself to downfield throws and yards after the catch in the aforementioned receiver screens. The allure of Jackson, and this was the case while playing for Andy Reid, is the ability for a home run week. He won fantasy owners several weeks in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, but has been pedestrian (by fantasy standards) since.
What limits Jackson is his red zone presence. He has just 59 red zone targets in five career seasons (for perspective, Calvin Johnson, among the best red zone receivers, has 58 targets since 2010). Regardless of the offense, Jackson isn't a conventional red zone target (a big-bodied, long, tall wideout). So, as has been the case throughout his career, you're investing in the big play by investing in Jackson. The unpredictability associated with big plays makes Jackson a top-30 receiver, but banking on him as much more comes with the risk of another two-touchdown season.
Among the other Eagles receivers, there's little in the way of fantasy relevancy at the moment. Riley Cooper and Jason Avant are candidates to start for Philadelphia, but neither is draftable. Damaris Johnson is an interesting piece because of his run-after-catch skills, but he'll easily be acquired via waiver wires if he pans out.
Tight end
The Eagles have made some headlines this season with their incorporation of four-tight end sets, featuring Brent Celek, Zach Ertz, James Casey and Clay Harbor (note: Harbor is essentially a receiver with a tight end's body. He has worked closely with Philly's wideouts during camp).
Schematically, the Eagles don't project to keep them all of them on the field all that often (consider that package a specialty personnel group), but they will rotate through the tight ends extensively. There will be a steady dose of one- and two-tight end sets, with Celek, Ertz and Casey all projecting to earn substantial snaps and impact the underneath passing game.
But while the Eagles may cause defensive coordinators some angst with their stable of tight ends, fantasy owners should tread lightly when it comes to drafting any of them. With three slated to play significant time, none projects to earn enough targets and catches to rise to fantasy starter status.

 

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Rethinking my rankings

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The first thing you should know is that I really like Christina Applegate.

I mention that up front because the story I am about to tell you might come across as negative toward her, and I don't want it to. Seriously, I think she's awesome. I would completely work with her again in a heartbeat if I were ever asked to.

Yes, again. In case you're not aware, long before I was able to make fantasy sports my living, I was a writer on "Married... with Children." My title was "story editor," which is Hollywood-speak for a low-level writer, but I worked on 28 episodes of the show, co-writing five episodes (getting credit for four, long story), including the 250th episode and the last original episode of the show to air (though not what is considered to be the "final episode"). I loved that show, loved working on it, and the cast was amazing. All of them brilliant (and underappreciated) comedic actors with the ability to turn bad jokes into laughs and good jokes into huge guffaws. There is no questioning their talent. And if you ever wanted a super-cool girl to have a beer with, you could do a lot worse than Christina Applegate.


Our story begins with one of the episodes my writing partner, Eric Abrams, and I wrote. One of the plot lines of this particular episode involved Kelly, who (on the show) was an aspiring actress who often got parts in bad movies with roles like "Biker bimbo No. 5" or some such. Anyway, in our episode, she gets an audition for a role in "Cat Fight: The Movie." It was a female boxing movie. At the time, female boxing had become somewhat popular, and, 250 episodes into "Married...," we were willing to try anything as long as it was somewhat new. So we wrote this scene in which, while at the gym training for the movie, Kelly runs into her archrival, a cut-from-the-same-blond-dye-bottle named Heather. Turns out Heather is up for the same role; they talk trash to each other; and eventually they decide they will box each other for real, with the loser dropping out of the audition, giving the coveted role to the winner. Of course.

I tell you all this because the role of Heather is actually important to our story. If you've seen the show, this won't shock you, but most female guest roles on "Married... with Children" were not very rewarding. They were generally one of two things: an obese woman who came into Al's shoe store and was made fun of by Al and Griff, or a stereotyped bimbo for Al, Jefferson, Griff and/or Bud to ogle and lust after. But this role was different. The role was Kelly's biggest rival, so it was three big scenes with Christina, with lots of funny jokes and insults to deliver and a showy set-piece scene at the end. Sure, it also involved boxing in tight spandex -- I mean, it's still "Married... with Children" -- but whatever. This was a very good guest role, and we got submissions from a higher caliber of actress than was typical. In fact, lots of great actresses auditioned for the role.

Now, one of the cool things about working on "Married..." was that they let the episode's writers be involved every step of the way. You got to sit in on casting, help with the final edit, etc. This is not typical of most shows with lower-level writers.

So, OK, we do the audition, and we see actress after actress vying for this role. Many are very good, but one comes in (I'll call her April) and just knocks it out of the park. She's fantastic. Plays it perfectly between hostile enough to be a real rival to Kelly, but funny enough so that you're enjoying the interplay as insults fly back and forth between them. Plus, she's great-looking, never a bad thing on "Married…" and important to the plot if we're to believe she's a legit rival to Kelly. We've heard these lines, like 20 times in a row, yet she has us legitimately laughing really hard. Audition finishes, we are profuse in our praise to her, she thanks us, the casting agent says, "We'll let you know." We turn to our executive producer.

Me: That's our winner.
Executive producer: Let's see everyone who came by.
Me: Of course, we should see everyone who came in, but April's the clubhouse leader. It's not close.

So, we see the rest of the actresses, and none of them comes close to April. The last girl leaves and the casting director turns to us.

Casting director: What do you think?
Me: Gotta be April. She was the best.
My writing partner: Definitely.
Casting director: I agree.
Executive producer: I think we should hire Lisa.

I'm surprised, and I quickly consult my notes.

Me: Lisa? She was good, but not as good as April. Not even close.

We look to the casting director for help. We're low-level writers, not about to go toe-to-toe with the show's executive producer.

Casting director: I gotta agree with the guys here. April's your winner.
Executive producer: I hear you, but it's ultimately my call and we're hiring Lisa. (To the casting director) Go hire her, please.

The casting director looks at us and shrugs with a "What are you gonna do?" look. He leaves the room, and we turn to face our boss. Why, we respectfully ask? Did you not just see the same audition we all did? And that's when our boss gave us, as Paul Harvey used to say, the rest of the story. "She was too good. That's the problem."
What? He explained. "Look, this is a big Christina episode. We've seen this before. When Christina has to carry the storyline by herself, she gets nervous. And that other woman is too good. If we hire her, she'll come to the stage and she's like a new shiny toy. All the guys on set will be all over her, flirting with her, fawning over her; she's gonna get big laughs, and everyone will be talking about the new girl and ignoring Christina. And when that happens, Christina will get even more nervous and she just retreats. She gets into her own head too much, she's not as confident and we'll get a bad performance out of her. We need someone good and pretty for the role, just not as good or as pretty as our star."


I was shocked by this, of course, but you know what? My boss was right. Now, I should say that I never saw Christina behave like he had described; she was amazing in every episode I worked on. Of course, she was also never put in a situation like this one we were proposing, where she wasn't a rock star, so who knows? My boss had been on the show for a number of years, so I assume he was telling the truth. The key point, and the correct one, is that having a great guest part is nice, but she's our star, she's the one the audience loves, she's the one we need to make look the best.

I had been given new information. With that new information, I re-evaluated what was important, and, although April was amazing, she wasn't right for everything that was needed with the role. The girl we did hire did a solid, professional job;, Christina hit it out of the park; and all was well.
I was thinking of this story this week because, much as I did back in that casting office, I've been re-evaluating things. Given new research, some preseason games, more coaches talking, more data points, more information, more everything, I've been able to re-evaluate certain things. Like my rankings. What I thought once has changed now that I have more info on certain players. So, through the first two games of the preseason, let's talk about guys who have risen in my most recent ranks and guys who have fallen.

[h=3]The risers[/h]
The obscure Patriots: They're not going to be obscure for long. I'm speaking specifically of Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins. Going undrafted a few weeks ago, these guys have shot up my rankings. If just showing up is half the battle, then three-quarters of the battle is showing up with Tom Brady throwing the ball your way. Sudfeld is the biggest climber for me as I now have him as a top-eight fantasy tight end. You heard me.
Did you see this Mike Reiss mailbag about Sudfeld on ESPNBoston.com? In essence, Reiss discusses the possibility of a Rob Gronkowski-Sudfeld tandem. He writes that, although Sudfeld doesn't have the elusiveness of Aaron Hernandez, he does have a bigger catch radius, and 6-foot-7 Sudfeld alongside 6-6 Gronkowski makes for a very interesting red zone package. Sudfeld is tall and athletic and has great hands and a pretty good quarterback, so there's no reason he couldn't put up top-eight numbers. Last year's No. 8 tight end was Owen Daniels, who had 716 yards and six touchdowns. You're telling me Sudfeld can't get that? Last year, the Patriots attempted the third-most passes to tight ends, despite Gronk and Hernandez missing a combined 12 games. And they've thrown the most passes to tight end in the past three years. Again, I ask you... You're telling me Sudfeld can't get 700 yards and 6 TDs? Add in the possibility of him being the Patriot's No. 1 tight end if (when?) Gronk misses time, and the upside is too great to ignore. TE is so deep that, if he doesn't work out, you can find another guy on the waiver wire. But the upside is worth the 12th-round pick, no doubt.

I have less to go on with Thompkins except that he is drawing rave reviews for his practice performance, he played the second-most snaps (behind Danny Amendola) with Brady in their second preseason game and, from what I've seen of him, I'm impressed. He's got a real shot at being the No. 2 receiver behind Amendola and, in the 13th round, where I have Thompkins, that's very much worth a flier.

Finally, I'll just say that the whole New England offense looks awesome so far this preseason, so I've moved Brady and Amendola up some, as well. I already had Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen pretty high, so they stayed put.


Michael Vick: Am I allowed to publicly discuss the fantasy prospects of Michael Vick yet? Is the moratorium over? Look, health is and always will be the issue with Vick, but now that he officially has been named the starter by head coach Chip Kelly, I moved him to 13th among quarterbacks. Between the running and the passing, Vick is the only quarterback going outside the top 10 who has legitimate top-five upside. The players around him, the high-tempo offense Kelly wants to run and his own talent make Vick (once again) a high-risk, high-reward player. I wouldn't want Vick as my No. 1 quarterback in a 10- or 12-team league, but as my No. 2 or in a deeper or two-QB league? Love the upside.

Golden Tate: I don't buy into the whole contract year thing, but given that this is Tate's walk year and consistency and maturity have been issues of his before, I believe what I hear from the local media covering the Seahawks. There has been a shift in Tate's attitude and focus. Percy Harvin's injury has helped Tate make his way up the depth chart, and, after a year in which he caught seven (or six, if you're a Packers fan) touchdowns, he's ready to take the next step in his fourth NFL season. The skills are there; he has looked great in limited preseason action; and, although I have him ranked as a 10th-rounder, right now he'll cost you just a 12th-rounder.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Guys, he's healthy. He's less than 12 months removed from leading the NFL in rushing. Whatever you think of the Jaguars' pass attack, it's better than it was in 2011, with the emergence of Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon (who will serve a four-game suspension to start the season, but that just means he'll be rested come Week 5!). When MJD led the NFL in rushing in 2011, the leading receiver of the Jags was Marcedes Lewis with 460 yards. MJD was third with 374 yards! Yeah. He won't see nearly as many eight-man boxes, and he keeps creeping up my ranks. I have him at 13 (he's currently going in the third round), and I suspect he'll be top-10 for me before the preseason ends.

Middle-round running backs: This just in! The earth is round, and there's a shortage of good running backs! So, chances are you're grabbing one or two backs in the middle rounds as your flex, for bench depth and upside plays, or as your starter if you screwed up the early rounds (Darren McFadden owners, I'm looking at you). Here are some of the middle-round guys I've moved up:

Daryl Richardson: He's going to be the starter, and, more important, I believe he'll keep the job and have success on an offense that's going to be better than you think. Not amazing, just better than you think.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Pep Hamilton ran the ball 55 percent of the time he was the offensive coordinator at Stanford with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. He wants to run the ball, and he doesn't want to get his quarterback killed, the way he was hit last year. Enter Bradshaw, who is a very good blocking back on a one-year contract. In other words, Bradshaw has something to prove and the Colts don't care if they run him into the ground.

Eddie Lacy: Think he has looked great so far, and it's not as though the Packers will lack in red zone opportunities.

Andre Brown: The Giants trust Brown more in pass protection, and he will be the red zone back, as well. This will be more of a time share than David Wilson owners want to admit to themselves. Still believe in Wilson's talent, but Brown is going to have flex value -- below flex prices.

DeAngelo Williams: Jonathan Stewart ain't right, and it's gonna be a long time before he is. Williams isn't what he once was, but he can still be very productive in this league and the price is right.
Mark Ingram: Finally healthy, I liked what I saw against the Raiders in their preseason game. Reports out of New Orleans are that they want to use Ingram even more, and people are so sick of him that he goes really cheap in drafts. Post-hype sleeper.

Giovani Bernard: He's even converting short touchdowns in the preseason! A sneaky good PPR play, he'll be more involved in the offense than you might think, even if BenJarvus Green-Ellis gets the early downs and red zone work. Every time I see him, I like him a little bit more and he scooches up the ranks.

[h=3]The fallers[/h]Arian Foster: From No. 2 to No. 6. I reserve the right to change this rank (and probably will) multiple times before the start of the season. But when it's Aug. 20 and you still haven't gotten on a field, well, that raises some flags. The marks against him: the usage (most touches the past three years), the declining yards per carry, the presence of Ben Tate, the knowledge that the Texans have Super Bowl aspirations so they'll be super-cautious with him, plus all the injury concerns. That's enough for me to feel nervous about taking him at No. 2, especially when you have lots of good, safer options to choose from. He has been hurt early on before and turned in monster seasons, so I wouldn't be shocked if he did it again. Certainly he and the Texans have the talent. And hey, I have him at No. 6. Still pretty high, but not at No. 2. At 2, he gives me the heebie-jeebies, which is too a fantasy football term.

DeMarco Murray: We know he's injury prone; we know the Cowboys don't run that much (31st in the NFL in rush attempts last year); and we're not sure that will improve a ton now that Bill Callahan is calling the plays (Jason Garrett is still the head coach). But this story from ESPN Dallas is what gave me pause. In it, they describe Lance Dunbar having a "Darren Sproles" type role with Dallas. Now, Dunbar got hurt and might miss a game or two into the regular season, but still... It tells me that, in the abstract, they don't want Murray to be a three-down back and that he won't be as involved in the passing game as some initially thought. And again, they don't run. Plus, you know, the whole injury thing.

The rookie running backs (except Eddie Lacy): I still expect Montee Ball to be the Broncos' red zone back, but Ronnie Hillman is still in the mix and Knowshon Moreno did a very good job last year, so he might be involved, as well. At this point, nothing suggests that Ball has the every-down job to himself, but he's being drafted as if he does. Meanwhile, I was down on Le'Veon Bell before the injury, but, now that he's missing six weeks, he is borderline undraftable in 10-team non-keeper leagues. The Steelers had trouble running the ball last year (3.7 yards per attempt, 28th in NFL, and only four teams had fewer rushing touchdowns than the Steelers); the offensive line problems don't appear to be solved; and, with no Mike Wallace to stretch defenses (will Markus Wheaton step up?), expect defenses to cheat up more. Add in Todd Haley's offense that wants to throw and the expected use of Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman and this is a situation I do not want to be involved in for fantasy. I increased the ranks on Dwyer and Redman (in that order), but, man, this does not look pretty.
Trendy post-draft rookie sleeper Zac Stacy has done nothing this preseason, and the job is Richardson's. Stacy doesn't make my top 200 for re-draft leagues and the same can be said for Johnathan Franklin, who has Lacy and DuJuan Harris in front of him. I'm still ranking Franklin for now, but much lower than I did right after the NFL draft.

Vernon Davis: I'm lowering him partially because of the emergence of tight ends such as Sudfeld and Jordan Cameron with even more upside but also because of where you have to draft Davis, in the sixth. I remind you of these numbers: 14, zero, one, zero, one, two, zero. Those were his fantasy point totals after Colin Kaepernick took over. Yes, now there's no Crabtree and Davis had a great postseason, but we have no idea what the loss of Crabtree will do to Davis' production. It could be negative just as easily as it could be positive. Plus, all this talk of Davis lining up wide has people excited about him, but did you know he actually lined up as a "wide receiver" last year some? Per ESPN Stats & Information, he had 242 snaps last year when he lined up as a wideout. The result? Twelve receptions, zero touchdowns, 200 yards. Small sample size, sure, but then again, so was the postseason.

Darren McFadden: OK, I know, it's easy. He's injury prone. He was bad last year. Yeah, yeah, but the fact still remains that it's true. Did you see that game against the Saints? Seven sacks? McFadden gaining just 17 yards on five carries (3.4 yards per carry)? That offensive line looked brutal, and the loss of left tackle Jared Veldheer is bigger than you probably realize. I've seen McFadden go at the end of the second round in some drafts. I've now ranked him outside my top 70. I still might be too high on him.
 

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QB draft strategy, 2013 sleepers
in.gif


By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

One of the things I have found strange in these awesome #MockDraftMondays is how fantasy owners in 10-team practice leagues are so quick to select backup quarterbacks. I understand why the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees go early, though I say good luck with Vick Ballard as your No. 2 running back! But really, in a 10-team league there’s no need for a backup quarterback at all. There’s ample depth at this position and I’d argue unless your starter is a serious injury risk, and Washington Redskins stud Robert Griffin III is about the only fantasy starter fitting that description, then the picks after Round 8 are far better directed at running backs and wide receivers who could emerge as useful options. Selecting the likes of Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick and Jay Cutler in a 10-teamer with Brees or Tom Brady as your starter doesn’t make sense to me.
The strategy is certainly different if the rules change. In a 12-team league, I’m a bit more apt to add one of the quarterbacks ranked in the QB2 range just in case, because if there’s an injury to your reliable starter there’s a lesser player pool to replace him with. Then again, would I be drafting someone we know, like Flacco or Dalton, for that role? Or a higher-upside option, someone who has yet to reach what is frankly an average ceiling? I’d likely go upside, if taking a reserve quarterback at all, because by Halloween there will be several one-week fill-in types such as Matt Schaub out there in free agency, not to mention in-season surprises like Russell Wilson. There always are.
The rules change again in a 14-team league, or in standard 2-QB formats, or if it’s six points per touchdown. But the bottom line is no matter the league, if Matthew Stafford is your starter, under normal circumstances you’ve got half the season before needing to find a backup for his bye week, and you’re not sitting him otherwise. Think about it: Selecting a running back with potential for opportunity and upside like Knile Davis or Lance Dunbar in Round 10 just makes more sense than having to roster someone like Cutler or Josh Freeman for two months while you wait for Stafford’s bye week. It’s not ideal roster management.

Regardless, I’ve often been asked not only for my overall quarterback strategy -- in which I generally pass on the top options if it requires a top-50 overall pick for the likes of Stafford, Andrew Luck and Tony Romo later -- but also about the backup passers. Well, in 10-team standard formats, I don’t bother. If I needed a backup in a 12-teamer, though, here are five upside quarterbacks I’d take a chance on rather than the likes of Dalton, who is pretty much what he is. If any of the following plays poorly in September then it’s no big deal, because by the time your safe, reliable starter gets his week off there’s always a Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers or Alex Smith type sitting there in free agency.
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: A former No. 1 overall pick, most of Bradford’s problems have been with the mess around him, either the coaching, offensive line or weapons to throw to. At some point these issues should get fixed, or perhaps Bradford will simply rise above for his first season of 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. It’s not out of the question. One might wonder why it’s worth taking a chance on a guy who hasn’t achieved this yet, while fellows such as Cutler, Freeman and Rivers have, and it’s simple: Bradford is the one trending up, and if you’ve seen Tavon Austin play, you know that he could be special.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Perhaps it’s faint praise to say "he wasn’t as bad as most think" as a rookie, but it’s true, and all the negative talk coming out of Dolphins camp only serves to make Tannehill easier to ignore. It’s exactly why you should embrace the sleeper possibilities. Oh, so wide receiver Mike Wallace is not a good fit? I don’t buy it, Wallace is a solid player. Oh, so the starting running back spot is surprisingly up for grabs? No, don’t buy that, either. It’s Lamar Miller. Tannehill has plenty of ability, and judging anyone statistically off his rookie season is rarely wise. I don’t have Tannehill among my top 20 quarterbacks, but I surely could see him ending up there.

Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: This reminds of Bradford’s situation to some degree, as the stuff around Weeden has improved, notably the coaching. Say what you will about Norv Turner … well, we could say a lot, but the bottom line is Weeden, now 44 years old, has ability. Same with Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron. It’d be nice if the Browns didn’t have to play six of their games against top defenses in their own division, but there’s mild upside here.
Geno Smith, New York Jets: And now we get to the runners. Look, in light of the recent success of other seemingly off-the-radar young quarterbacks like Seattle’s Wilson, I think it’s only fair to consider what Smith could do if/when given opportunity. And he will get opportunity. This is a home run threat for 12-team leagues if you own a star QB. I know plenty of people who were able to deal Griffin, Wilson and Colin Kaepernick last year or this summer because their late draft pick or free-agent addition paid off.
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills: His recent "minor" knee procedure likely keeps him out of Week 1, but this situation mirrors the Jets', only with Kevin Kolb playing the Mark Sanchez role. And I like Manuel considerably more than Smith, to be honest. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bills are relevant in mid-December, with their rookie of the year candidate leading the way. Always take a chance late on 500 rushing yards from a quarterback.
 

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Le'Veon Bell injury, Lisfranc explanation

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

Pittsburgh Steelers rookie running back Le'Veon Bell has been unable to stay on the field consistently this preseason. First, it was soreness in his left knee, which caused him to miss the Steelers' preseason opener. Days later, he aggravated the knee in practice. He returned quickly enough to make an appearance in the Steelers' second preseason game, but that outing was cut short due to injury. This time, it was not his knee; Bell sprained his right foot after playing in just one series.
The big question is how long this latest injury, called a midfoot sprain by coach Mike Tomlin (and originally referred to as a Lisfranc sprain in ESPN reports), will keep Bell on the sideline. At this point, there is no timetable being offered by the Steelers, but on the positive side, Bell's injury will not require surgery.
So what is a realistic expectation for fantasy owners? And why does panic ensue when we hear the term "Lisfranc" associated with a foot injury?


As for what fantasy owners can expect, the only sure thing is that this will be a multiweek injury. Bell has already been ruled out of Pittsburgh's third preseason game, and while the Steelers are not saying when they expect him back -- in their defense, it's too early to make that projection with any degree of certainty -- early reports suggest a recovery time of 6-8 weeks. That time frame is fairly typical for nonsurgical Lisfranc sprains, but it should be noted that, depending on the actual degree of injury, the athlete's ability to heal and whether any setbacks occur along the way, the estimate could fluctuate in either direction.
Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Thursday that Bell said he was walking without discomfort and feeling positive about his progress. While that's great news, the big tests will come when he has to push off with running and pivot, twist and cut on that foot. Although the details of the injury aren't available, if it's indeed a Lisfranc sprain, it's difficult to imagine Bell returning to football before late September. It's critical to the long-term foot health of any player who suffers this type of injury that complete healing occurs prior to a return to play, hence the slow progression, even when the player says he feels fine.
This standard slow progression is part of the reason the word "Lisfranc" engenders panic. The standard absence for players who suffer this injury ranges from six weeks for the mildest form to season-ending for the more severe variety. Last season, Jets wide receiver Santonio Holmes, Green Bay Packers running back Cedric Benson and Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew all saw their seasons end due to Lisfranc injuries.
Perhaps more noteworthy is that these injuries were all unique and Holmes was the only player whose season was declared over shortly after the injury. Benson was initially placed on the IR/designated for return list after suffering the injury in Week 5 but did not progress as hoped and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery in late November. Jones-Drew was also hoping to avoid surgery after his Week 7 injury, but his problem persisted and he too underwent surgery in December.
It should be noted that last season Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray suffered a midfoot sprain that cost him six weeks, but he recovered fully and returned during the season.
Maybe now it's a bit clearer as to why the term "Lisfranc" inspires dread. But what is this Lisfranc injury? Lisfranc refers to an area of the foot where the long bones of the forefoot (metatarsals) articulate with the small (tarsal) bones in the middle of the foot. This joint is called the tarsometatarsal joint, or the Lisfranc joint. This joint is in the midfoot region, hence the confusion about the terms, which are often used interchangeably.
Why Lisfranc? Frenchman Jacques Lisfranc, a field surgeon in Napoleon's army, described an amputation technique through this region to address forefoot gangrene following frostbite. There is also a story that soldiers wounded in battle would fall from their horses, but a foot would often remain caught in the stirrup, right at that tarsometatarsal joint. Such an injury often resulted in amputation of part of the foot, from the injured joint forward. Thankfully, with modern medicine, these injuries don't typically require amputation, and surgery can preserve the joint.
Since NFL players aren't riding horses, how does this injury happen? Well, in sports, especially football, one scenario is that the player is running forward with his weight on the ball of his foot and he gets hit or stepped on from behind against his heel. The resultant force through the portion of the foot in between the ball and the heel (midfoot) causes it to buckle, and the midfoot is injured. But it can also result from shearing forces at the foot, the result of a twisting injury when the forefoot remains planted and locked into the ground as the player moves another direction.
Not all Lisfranc injuries are identical. When the midfoot buckles, the ligaments that connect the various bones can become damaged. Ligament injury without any bony impact would be the mildest version of a Lisfranc injury. The more mild sprains can be treated conservatively with rest and rehabilitation. If the damage to the ligaments is more extensive, it can affect the relative position of the bones in the area, and they can shift or dislocate, which is often accompanied by a fracture, resulting in a more serious injury. In the worst-case scenario, an artery passing over that area can also be damaged, affecting blood supply to the foot.
Shifting of the bony alignment typically requires surgery to realign the joint and provide stability, but it's not always easy to detect. Failure to properly correct the injury, however, can result in chronic instability and pain, eventually leading to major arthritis in the area. Even with surgery, it appears that those who have suffered a significant Lisfranc injury may be at increased risk for arthritis down the road, simply because of the trauma to the joint.
The bottom line is that players who suffer these injuries must have their treatment managed carefully, not only with surgery when indicated but in the rehabilitation process as well.
 

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Rethinking my rankings

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The first thing you should know is that I really like Christina Applegate.

I mention that up front because the story I am about to tell you might come across as negative toward her, and I don't want it to. Seriously, I think she's awesome. I would completely work with her again in a heartbeat if I were ever asked to.
Yes, again. In case you're not aware, long before I was able to make fantasy sports my living, I was a writer on "Married... with Children." My title was "story editor," which is Hollywood-speak for a low-level writer, but I worked on 28 episodes of the show, co-writing five episodes (getting credit for four, long story), including the 250th episode and the last original episode of the show to air (though not what is considered to be the "final episode"). I loved that show, loved working on it, and the cast was amazing. All of them brilliant (and underappreciated) comedic actors with the ability to turn bad jokes into laughs and good jokes into huge guffaws. There is no questioning their talent. And if you ever wanted a super-cool girl to have a beer with, you could do a lot worse than Christina Applegate.


Our story begins with one of the episodes my writing partner, Eric Abrams, and I wrote. One of the plot lines of this particular episode involved Kelly, who (on the show) was an aspiring actress who often got parts in bad movies with roles like "Biker bimbo No. 5" or some such. Anyway, in our episode, she gets an audition for a role in "Cat Fight: The Movie." It was a female boxing movie. At the time, female boxing had become somewhat popular, and, 250 episodes into "Married...," we were willing to try anything as long as it was somewhat new. So we wrote this scene in which, while at the gym training for the movie, Kelly runs into her archrival, a cut-from-the-same-blond-dye-bottle named Heather. Turns out Heather is up for the same role; they talk trash to each other; and eventually they decide they will box each other for real, with the loser dropping out of the audition, giving the coveted role to the winner. Of course.
I tell you all this because the role of Heather is actually important to our story. If you've seen the show, this won't shock you, but most female guest roles on "Married... with Children" were not very rewarding. They were generally one of two things: an obese woman who came into Al's shoe store and was made fun of by Al and Griff, or a stereotyped bimbo for Al, Jefferson, Griff and/or Bud to ogle and lust after. But this role was different. The role was Kelly's biggest rival, so it was three big scenes with Christina, with lots of funny jokes and insults to deliver and a showy set-piece scene at the end. Sure, it also involved boxing in tight spandex -- I mean, it's still "Married... with Children" -- but whatever. This was a very good guest role, and we got submissions from a higher caliber of actress than was typical. In fact, lots of great actresses auditioned for the role.
Now, one of the cool things about working on "Married..." was that they let the episode's writers be involved every step of the way. You got to sit in on casting, help with the final edit, etc. This is not typical of most shows with lower-level writers.
So, OK, we do the audition, and we see actress after actress vying for this role. Many are very good, but one comes in (I'll call her April) and just knocks it out of the park. She's fantastic. Plays it perfectly between hostile enough to be a real rival to Kelly, but funny enough so that you're enjoying the interplay as insults fly back and forth between them. Plus, she's great-looking, never a bad thing on "Married…" and important to the plot if we're to believe she's a legit rival to Kelly. We've heard these lines, like 20 times in a row, yet she has us legitimately laughing really hard. Audition finishes, we are profuse in our praise to her, she thanks us, the casting agent says, "We'll let you know." We turn to our executive producer.
Me: That's our winner.
Executive producer: Let's see everyone who came by.
Me: Of course, we should see everyone who came in, but April's the clubhouse leader. It's not close.
So, we see the rest of the actresses, and none of them comes close to April. The last girl leaves and the casting director turns to us.
Casting director: What do you think?
Me: Gotta be April. She was the best.
My writing partner: Definitely.
Casting director: I agree.
Executive producer: I think we should hire Lisa.
I'm surprised, and I quickly consult my notes.
Me: Lisa? She was good, but not as good as April. Not even close.
We look to the casting director for help. We're low-level writers, not about to go toe-to-toe with the show's executive producer.
Casting director: I gotta agree with the guys here. April's your winner.
Executive producer: I hear you, but it's ultimately my call and we're hiring Lisa. (To the casting director) Go hire her, please.
The casting director looks at us and shrugs with a "What are you gonna do?" look. He leaves the room, and we turn to face our boss. Why, we respectfully ask? Did you not just see the same audition we all did? And that's when our boss gave us, as Paul Harvey used to say, the rest of the story. "She was too good. That's the problem."
What? He explained. "Look, this is a big Christina episode. We've seen this before. When Christina has to carry the storyline by herself, she gets nervous. And that other woman is too good. If we hire her, she'll come to the stage and she's like a new shiny toy. All the guys on set will be all over her, flirting with her, fawning over her; she's gonna get big laughs, and everyone will be talking about the new girl and ignoring Christina. And when that happens, Christina will get even more nervous and she just retreats. She gets into her own head too much, she's not as confident and we'll get a bad performance out of her. We need someone good and pretty for the role, just not as good or as pretty as our star."


I was shocked by this, of course, but you know what? My boss was right. Now, I should say that I never saw Christina behave like he had described; she was amazing in every episode I worked on. Of course, she was also never put in a situation like this one we were proposing, where she wasn't a rock star, so who knows? My boss had been on the show for a number of years, so I assume he was telling the truth. The key point, and the correct one, is that having a great guest part is nice, but she's our star, she's the one the audience loves, she's the one we need to make look the best.
I had been given new information. With that new information, I re-evaluated what was important, and, although April was amazing, she wasn't right for everything that was needed with the role. The girl we did hire did a solid, professional job;, Christina hit it out of the park; and all was well.
I was thinking of this story this week because, much as I did back in that casting office, I've been re-evaluating things. Given new research, some preseason games, more coaches talking, more data points, more information, more everything, I've been able to re-evaluate certain things. Like my rankings. What I thought once has changed now that I have more info on certain players. So, through the first two games of the preseason, let's talk about guys who have risen in my most recent ranks and guys who have fallen.
[h=3]The risers[/h]The obscure Patriots: They're not going to be obscure for long. I'm speaking specifically of Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins. Going undrafted a few weeks ago, these guys have shot up my rankings. If just showing up is half the battle, then three-quarters of the battle is showing up with Tom Brady throwing the ball your way. Sudfeld is the biggest climber for me as I now have him as a top-eight fantasy tight end. You heard me.
Did you see this Mike Reiss mailbag about Sudfeld on ESPNBoston.com? In essence, Reiss discusses the possibility of a Rob Gronkowski-Sudfeld tandem. He writes that, although Sudfeld doesn't have the elusiveness of Aaron Hernandez, he does have a bigger catch radius, and 6-foot-7 Sudfeld alongside 6-6 Gronkowski makes for a very interesting red zone package. Sudfeld is tall and athletic and has great hands and a pretty good quarterback, so there's no reason he couldn't put up top-eight numbers. Last year's No. 8 tight end was Owen Daniels, who had 716 yards and six touchdowns. You're telling me Sudfeld can't get that? Last year, the Patriots attempted the third-most passes to tight ends, despite Gronk and Hernandez missing a combined 12 games. And they've thrown the most passes to tight end in the past three years. Again, I ask you... You're telling me Sudfeld can't get 700 yards and 6 TDs? Add in the possibility of him being the Patriot's No. 1 tight end if (when?) Gronk misses time, and the upside is too great to ignore. TE is so deep that, if he doesn't work out, you can find another guy on the waiver wire. But the upside is worth the 12th-round pick, no doubt.
I have less to go on with Thompkins except that he is drawing rave reviews for his practice performance, he played the second-most snaps (behind Danny Amendola) with Brady in their second preseason game and, from what I've seen of him, I'm impressed. He's got a real shot at being the No. 2 receiver behind Amendola and, in the 13th round, where I have Thompkins, that's very much worth a flier.
Finally, I'll just say that the whole New England offense looks awesome so far this preseason, so I've moved Brady and Amendola up some, as well. I already had Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen pretty high, so they stayed put.


Michael Vick: Am I allowed to publicly discuss the fantasy prospects of Michael Vick yet? Is the moratorium over? Look, health is and always will be the issue with Vick, but now that he officially has been named the starter by head coach Chip Kelly, I moved him to 13th among quarterbacks. Between the running and the passing, Vick is the only quarterback going outside the top 10 who has legitimate top-five upside. The players around him, the high-tempo offense Kelly wants to run and his own talent make Vick (once again) a high-risk, high-reward player. I wouldn't want Vick as my No. 1 quarterback in a 10- or 12-team league, but as my No. 2 or in a deeper or two-QB league? Love the upside.
Golden Tate: I don't buy into the whole contract year thing, but given that this is Tate's walk year and consistency and maturity have been issues of his before, I believe what I hear from the local media covering the Seahawks. There has been a shift in Tate's attitude and focus. Percy Harvin's injury has helped Tate make his way up the depth chart, and, after a year in which he caught seven (or six, if you're a Packers fan) touchdowns, he's ready to take the next step in his fourth NFL season. The skills are there; he has looked great in limited preseason action; and, although I have him ranked as a 10th-rounder, right now he'll cost you just a 12th-rounder.
Maurice Jones-Drew: Guys, he's healthy. He's less than 12 months removed from leading the NFL in rushing. Whatever you think of the Jaguars' pass attack, it's better than it was in 2011, with the emergence of Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon (who will serve a four-game suspension to start the season, but that just means he'll be rested come Week 5!). When MJD led the NFL in rushing in 2011, the leading receiver of the Jags was Marcedes Lewis with 460 yards. MJD was third with 374 yards! Yeah. He won't see nearly as many eight-man boxes, and he keeps creeping up my ranks. I have him at 13 (he's currently going in the third round), and I suspect he'll be top-10 for me before the preseason ends.
Middle-round running backs: This just in! The earth is round, and there's a shortage of good running backs! So, chances are you're grabbing one or two backs in the middle rounds as your flex, for bench depth and upside plays, or as your starter if you screwed up the early rounds (Darren McFadden owners, I'm looking at you). Here are some of the middle-round guys I've moved up:
Daryl Richardson: He's going to be the starter, and, more important, I believe he'll keep the job and have success on an offense that's going to be better than you think. Not amazing, just better than you think.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Pep Hamilton ran the ball 55 percent of the time he was the offensive coordinator at Stanford with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. He wants to run the ball, and he doesn't want to get his quarterback killed, the way he was hit last year. Enter Bradshaw, who is a very good blocking back on a one-year contract. In other words, Bradshaw has something to prove and the Colts don't care if they run him into the ground.
Eddie Lacy: Think he has looked great so far, and it's not as though the Packers will lack in red zone opportunities.
Andre Brown: The Giants trust Brown more in pass protection, and he will be the red zone back, as well. This will be more of a time share than David Wilson owners want to admit to themselves. Still believe in Wilson's talent, but Brown is going to have flex value -- below flex prices.
DeAngelo Williams: Jonathan Stewart ain't right, and it's gonna be a long time before he is. Williams isn't what he once was, but he can still be very productive in this league and the price is right.
Mark Ingram: Finally healthy, I liked what I saw against the Raiders in their preseason game. Reports out of New Orleans are that they want to use Ingram even more, and people are so sick of him that he goes really cheap in drafts. Post-hype sleeper.
Giovani Bernard: He's even converting short touchdowns in the preseason! A sneaky good PPR play, he'll be more involved in the offense than you might think, even if BenJarvus Green-Ellis gets the early downs and red zone work. Every time I see him, I like him a little bit more and he scooches up the ranks.
[h=3]The fallers

Arian Foster: From No. 2 to No. 6. I reserve the right to change this rank (and probably will) multiple times before the start of the season. But when it's Aug. 20 and you still haven't gotten on a field, well, that raises some flags. The marks against him: the usage (most touches the past three years), the declining yards per carry, the presence of Ben Tate, the knowledge that the Texans have Super Bowl aspirations so they'll be super-cautious with him, plus all the injury concerns. That's enough for me to feel nervous about taking him at No. 2, especially when you have lots of good, safer options to choose from. He has been hurt early on before and turned in monster seasons, so I wouldn't be shocked if he did it again. Certainly he and the Texans have the talent. And hey, I have him at No. 6. Still pretty high, but not at No. 2. At 2, he gives me the heebie-jeebies, which is too a fantasy football term.
DeMarco Murray: We know he's injury prone; we know the Cowboys don't run that much (31st in the NFL in rush attempts last year); and we're not sure that will improve a ton now that Bill Callahan is calling the plays (Jason Garrett is still the head coach). But this story from ESPN Dallas is what gave me pause. In it, they describe Lance Dunbar having a "Darren Sproles" type role with Dallas. Now, Dunbar got hurt and might miss a game or two into the regular season, but still... It tells me that, in the abstract, they don't want Murray to be a three-down back and that he won't be as involved in the passing game as some initially thought. And again, they don't run. Plus, you know, the whole injury thing.
The rookie running backs (except Lacy and Bernard): I still expect Montee Ball to be the Broncos' red zone back, but Ronnie Hillman is still in the mix and Knowshon Moreno did a very good job last year, so he might be involved, as well. At this point, nothing suggests that Ball has the every-down job to himself, but he's being drafted as if he does. Meanwhile, I was down on Le'Veon Bell before the injury, but, now that he's missing six weeks, he is borderline undraftable in 10-team non-keeper leagues. The Steelers had trouble running the ball last year (3.7 yards per attempt, 28th in NFL, and only four teams had fewer rushing touchdowns than the Steelers); the offensive line problems don't appear to be solved; and, with no Mike Wallace to stretch defenses (will Markus Wheaton step up?), expect defenses to cheat up more. Add in Todd Haley's offense that wants to throw and the expected use of Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman and this is a situation I do not want to be involved in for fantasy. I increased the ranks on Dwyer and Redman (in that order), but, man, this does not look pretty.
Trendy post-draft rookie sleeper Zac Stacy has done nothing this preseason, and the job is Richardson's. Stacy doesn't make my top 200 for re-draft leagues and the same can be said for Johnathan Franklin, who has Lacy and DuJuan Harris in front of him. I'm still ranking Franklin for now, but much lower than I did right after the NFL draft.
Vernon Davis: I'm lowering him partially because of the emergence of tight ends such as Sudfeld and Jordan Cameron with even more upside but also because of where you have to draft Davis, in the sixth. I remind you of these numbers: 14, zero, one, zero, one, two, zero. Those were his fantasy point totals after Colin Kaepernick took over. Yes, now there's no Crabtree and Davis had a great postseason, but we have no idea what the loss of Crabtree will do to Davis' production. It could be negative just as easily as it could be positive. Plus, all this talk of Davis lining up wide has people excited about him, but did you know he actually lined up as a "wide receiver" last year some? Per ESPN Stats & Information, he had 242 snaps last year when he lined up as a wideout. The result? Twelve receptions, zero touchdowns, 200 yards. Small sample size, sure, but then again, so was the postseason.
Darren McFadden: OK, I know, it's easy. He's injury prone. He was bad last year. Yeah, yeah, but the fact still remains that it's true. Did you see that game against the Saints? Seven sacks? McFadden gaining just 17 yards on five carries (3.4 yards per carry)? That offensive line looked brutal, and the loss of left tackle Jared Veldheer is bigger than you probably realize. I've seen McFadden go at the end of the second round in some drafts. I've now ranked him outside my top 70. I still might be too high on him.

[/h]
 

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Is Lamar Miller a legit No. 2 back?

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Is Lamar Miller a No. 2 fantasy RB?

He's a 212-pound, 22-year-old track star who's the leading candidate to start at running back for an intriguing Miami Dolphins offense. In limited action last season, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and put down a few highlights on tape that any observer could get excited about. He's reportedly improved in pass protection during his second NFL training camp. He's Lamar Miller, and I feel like I should love him more than I do.
Miller fits the profile of a breakout candidate. The traditional path to fantasy stardom for a running back is to be a bruising, TD-heavy, volume player (think Marshawn Lynch or Alfred Morris). But recent years have convinced the savvy fantasy owner that another path is available: the slender sprinter. Such players have dotted the NFL's history (Bob Hayes, Curtis Dickey, Michael Bennett et al), but we've seen a surge in today's game. Lately, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller and Jahvid Best have all made big fantasy impacts -- Best's certainly would have been bigger without his spate of concussions -- in relatively thin bodies. In fact, despite having straight-ahead wheels that compare favorably to these other four sprinters, Miller is between 10 and 20 pounds heavier than all of them.


But measurables aren't everything. One thing Miller doesn't have that these other four players did is a lot of game tape. Miller had one year as a collegiate starter at the University of Miami and left as a redshirt sophomore. He has 51 professional totes. I've been taken to task by some Twitter followers for not acknowledging Miller's upside by ranking him well inside my top 20 RBs for 2013. But I think he carries too much risk to go that far. In my personal ranks, he's the No. 24 RB, one spot behind Reggie Bush, the man he's replacing in Miami.

You might recall that Miller was considered a potential late-first-round pick in the 2012 draft but that he fell to the fourth round. Draftniks were initially hard pressed to explain this drop, but it turned out NFL teams were nervous about Miller's injured shoulder and his limitations as a pass-blocker and short-yardage option. The shoulder is no longer a concern (with surgery more than a year ago), but what makes us certain that Miller is ready to excel on the physical side? He has two career regular-season carries on third down with less than three yards to go. According to ProFootballFocus, he's forced six missed tackles in his career. Of course, because someone hasn't done something doesn't mean he can't. But there's a reason general manager Jeff Ireland keeps relentlessly talking up third-year RB Daniel Thomas, and I think it's because Ireland knows he'll be better off if Miller has a more physical complement. The jury is way out on whether it can be Thomas, who's busted hard in two pro seasons, but that doesn't change the GM's concerns.

You might ask, so what? So what if Miller isn't ready to be a physical player in the NFL? Is Johnson physical? Is Charles? If Miller is ready to break long game-changing TDs, say, seven times this year, it won't matter. You can't teach his kind of speed, plus he seems to be a nice fit for the Dolphins' zone-blocking arrangement. Miller doesn't necessarily need to pound into the line and make something himself nor does he need to juke around defenders. Instead, he'll need to display good instincts, strong vision and decisive acceleration into the hole. I'll admit, I find the positive side of this disquisition compelling. I like Miller more in an offensive system that lets him cut once and go hard rather than weave or juke (a la Spiller). It seems like a better match for his strengths. Miller is not someone I'd characterize as elusive.


But do these positives make him a clear No. 2 fantasy RB? For me, not quite. Miller hasn't done it before. Ryan Tannehill hasn't done it before. And while Bush did have success running in Miami over the past couple of years, the offensive line has changed. Jake Long is in St. Louis and will be replaced at left tackle by shaky Jonathan Martin, and guard depth is scary with both John Jerry and Lance Louis battling injuries. In fact, if you were going to note one area of real concern on the entire Dolphins roster, it would be the team's O-line, and becoming a great zone-blocking unit requires continuity as well as skill. It's unlikely that the team's Week 1 starting five will play a single snap together in the preseason.

I absolutely acknowledge Miller's exciting upside. I can't get too ornery if fantasy owners want to shoot for the moon grabbing him as their No. 2 RB, because winning fantasy titles is often about players reaching high ceilings. But we have to acknowledge that Miller's downside is frightening. He's an unproven rusher who doesn't play a physical game on an offense that was 27th in both total yards and points scored last season. It's well within the realm of possibility that Miller could leave you holding the bag with a 600-yard, three-TD season. For that reason, I think of him more as a standard-league flex than as a No. 2 runner.
 

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[h=1]WRs rising with chemistry[/h][h=3]Why Fitzgerald, Sanders and others will have big fantasy production in 2013[/h]By Tim Hasselbeck | ESPN Insider

Five months before David Tyree made his famous catch in Super Bowl XLII, he was fighting for his roster spot.
Between training camp practices at the University of Albany that preseason, quarterbacks coach Chris Palmer asked the QBs to write down our top four wide receivers, and he would do the same. Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith were unanimous across the board in the first three spots. That fourth spot was where the disagreement began.
Eli Manning and I both named Tyree as the No. 4 receiver, while the other two QBs and Palmer had other guys as the No. 4 wideout. That started a debate about Tyree, who they said couldn't run, couldn't get separation and had suspect hands. Truthfully, we couldn't dispute that description of him as a player. In fact, he was having a horrible camp catching the football.
I described him as a "gamer," which brought a chuckle out of Palmer. But it was Eli who said, "I trust him, he can play every WR position and I know that he will be where he is supposed to be."
You can time 40-yard dashes and measure vertical jumps, but the most important thing a wide receiver or a tight end can have is the trust of his quarterback. Here are four WRs and a TE whom you should trust in fantasy the way Eli trusted Tyree.



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[h=3]Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Current ESPN ADP: 33.4[/h]
I finished my playing career with the Cardinals, and was able to see first-hand how dominant Larry could be when given the opportunity to go up and fight for the ball. No matter what the play call was -- run plays included -- once we were inside the 20-yard line, if there was ever any single coverage on Larry, Kurt Warner had the green light to throw him a jump ball in the end zone.
Larry has an unbelievable ability to track the ball, use his body to shield the defender and then fight for the ball. Not to mention he probably has the best hands in the league. He is a touchdown machine, and the chemistry and trust built up between him and Kurt was unreal to witness.
Bruce Arians will most likely give Carson Palmer the same green light in the red zone, and I believe Fitz will have yet another season where he has at least eight TD receptions. I've heard some people say that TD totals are unpredictable for WRs. I get that, but I think Fitz is the exception to the rule.
<OFFER></OFFER>
In six of his nine seasons he has had at least eight TD catches, and that includes stretches with QBs such as John Navarre, Max Hall, John Skelton and Ryan Lindley. Palmer is going to throw it a ton, giving Larry all types of opportunities both out in the open field and in the red zone. The chemistry between Carson and Fitz throughout the preseason has been clear, and by the time the regular season begins, I believe it will appear as if these guys have been playing together for years.
Taking all of this into account, Fitzgerald is a late third- or early fourth-round choice (in a 10-team league) for me. In fact, if given the choice between Larry or Andre Johnson (who has been going a few picks higher in drafts thus far), I'd give the edge to Fitz because of the touchdown production.



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[h=3]Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ESPN ADP: 113.1[/h]
People familiar with how the Steelers' training camp has gone have been very impressed with the play of Sanders. "Consistency" has been the key word from those I have talked to, and some even believe that he has been the best WR in camp (ahead of highly paid Antonio Brown).
Ben Roethlisberger clearly has great chemistry with Sanders, and Sanders has earned it by becoming a very precise route runner. When playing with Roethlisberger, the receivers have to understand the scramble rules and see things the same way that their QB does. Sanders is phenomenal in this area, and it was evident last season on multiple occasions -- two specific examples being Week 3 against the Oakland Raiders and Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens.
I believe Sanders is poised for a big year. Doubters will point to the fact that he has never had more than 44 receptions in a season, but I would say that he did that while starting only seven total games. And while I don't think that starting 16 games will necessarily double those numbers, I do think he can catch 70 balls and be up near 1,000 yards in this offense.
Remember, Roethlisberger was on pace to have his most attempts in a season in his first year in Todd Haley's offense, and now Sanders will have a much more prominent role. To think that you can get Sanders a full three rounds after a guy like Tavon Austin -- who isn't yet a proven NFL player, and is playing with a QB who has never posted numbers like Big Ben -- is a pretty sweet deal. In fact, I would take Sanders as early as Round 10 in a 10-team league.



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[h=3]Rueben Randle, New York Giants
Current ESPN ADP: 135.9[/h]
Let's put this out there right now: I want Rueben Randle on my roster.
This is a player who is being taken, on average, at the end of Round 14 in 10-team leagues, and he's playing with a QB who has averaged over 25 TDs per year as a starter. I think this is a steal, and would take Randle one or two rounds earlier. The Giants will operate out of three-WR sets a ton this season, and always get their best players on the field. This will give Randle plenty of opportunities.


Something else to consider: No. 1 wideout Hakeem Nicks always seems to be battling some type of injury -- foot, knee, hamstring, groin … the list goes on. Victor Cruz will start this season with a heel injury. Randle is phenomenal insurance for Cruz and Nicks owners, and valuable enough to merit a spot for those who don't own either of the other two.
Watching his film this preseason, it is clear that he has grown as a receiver and has a better understanding of the Giants' offense. It was evident to me the first week of the preseason, when the Steelers brought a weak safety blitz and Randle made the sight adjustment, following up his catch with a nice run afterward.
Maybe it's a result of getting so much work during the offseason with Cruz and Nicks dealing with contract issues, or maybe it's just maturity, but Eli now trusts Randle, and I do as well, especially this late.

And if he does find himself as one of the top two WRs for the Giants because of injury? Just remember back to how good Eli made Ramses Barden look against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3 last season (9 catches on 10 targets for 138 yards).



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[h=3]Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Current ESPN ADP: 170.0[/h]
You all know how I feel about Tom Brady. I think he's going to have another big season in Josh McDaniels' offense, and though neither Danny Amendola nor Edelman will be as good individually as Wes Welker, they both have the potential to make up for a huge chunk of that lost production.
Here's the difference: Amendola has an ADP of 48.3 in ESPN leagues right now, while Edelman is generally going undrafted, and is owned in only 5.4 percent of leagues.
Really? We're that sure that Amendola can stay on the field and be "the new Wes?"
I like what I've seen out of Edelman during recent seasons in New England. Remember, at one point the Pats were grooming him to be Welker's eventual replacement, and he was very good in the Welker role whenever No. 83 was unavailable because of injury or in Bill Belichick's doghouse. He didn't have a huge game on his résumé during 2012, but he does have four seasons of experience working with Brady.
Brady can give any pass-catcher the opportunity to look great -- it's the truly great WRs who take that opportunity and make something of it. There's no guarantee that either Amendola or Edelman will be able to accomplish what Welker did, but the price to bet on Edelman being that big producer is much, much lower than it is on Amendola. He's definitely worth a late-round flier for me.



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[h=3]Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns
Current ESPN ADP: 129.2[/h]
TE is once again a deep position, though there aren't as many top-flight options with injuries to guys such as Rob Gronkowski, Dennis Pitta and Dustin Keller, as well as Aaron Hernandez's departure from the league. However, there are some good young TEs who I think are poised to step up and fill the void. It seems like Zach Sudfeld is getting most of the love, and maybe rightfully so, but I have my eye on Cameron.
Brandon Weeden has been fantastic this preseason adapting to Norv Turner's offense, and Cameron has been a big part of his success. Cameron is a tall, fast, athletic TE who can create matchup issues with his size or his speed. A former basketball player, he's the latest player following that track to (hopefully) massive success in the NFL, with Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham among the predecessors.
Most important, Cameron seems to have developed good chemistry with Weeden through preseason practices as well as games. The Browns have had trouble finding a dynamic TE in recent seasons, but it looks as though they've finally caught up to the rest of the league now.
As we know, Turner has been the architect of offenses that have had TEs go on to have great success -- Gates being the most recent example. I predict a similar situation for Turner in Cleveland, and Cameron looks ready to deliver.
There are some early suspensions for the Browns at WR (Josh Gordon), and some question marks at the position in general. Cameron is going to get opportunities early and often for the Browns, who won't be shy about airing it out. His ADP (129.2) has him going at the tail end of Round 13 in a 10-team league, but I'd take him as high as Round 11, as the next TE off the board after Jermichael Finley.
 

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Separating running backs into tiers
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Eric Karabell

One of the best ways to achieve a successful draft is to rank players in a tiered system, thus making it easier to know when you need to consider drafting at a certain position. For example, you might consider three or four running backs to be of similar ability and statistical upside, and think one or more will fall to your next pick. Meanwhile, at wide receiver, you see one guy who seriously trumps all those who are left on the board. As a result, the tiebreaker on making a key decision comes down to depth and would favor the wide receiver, and a tiered system can make organizing easier. After all, in timed drafts one doesn’t get much actual time to think. Due diligence and planning are recommended.
This week in the KaraBlog, you’ll see my tiers at running back and wide receiver. My rankings are always being adjusted, frankly, but it’s instructive that I might find a great difference in players who are ranked one spot away from each other, or group them together. As always, you should make your own tiers because, let’s face it, we’re not going to agree on the rankings -- we shouldn’t, really -- and the teams you draft are yours, not mine! I have enough teams! Using a tiered system, you might find you keep getting some of the same players, because you don’t want to drop down a tier.
A few other notes before we begin: Don’t compare a running back in the fourth tier with the wide receiver of the same numbered tier. I’m all about the running backs and continually preach about the miserable depth therein, so the fourth tier at that position might go one or more rounds earlier than that of the wide receivers. Also, I see little need to tier the quarterbacks and tight ends, though it’s pretty apparent from my rankings how that exercise would go if I did.
Tier 1
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (1st RB, 1st overall): Yep, he’s all alone. He was that special last year, and should be again. The adventure begins with the next pick!


Tier 2


Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2nd RB, 2nd overall): I understand why some are cautious, but someone has to be second. I’d be fine with any of this large crew, as I view them similarly as first-rounders.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (3rd, 3rd)

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (4th, 4th): Honestly, concerns over a time-share seem foolish to me.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (5th, 5th): Is clearly over his injury scare from a few weeks ago.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans (6th, 6th): Hmm, you sure he’s healthy and ready for action in Week 1? Still, if we knew he was, he’d vault to the top of this tier. He’s that good.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (7th, 7th): People forget he was in the first tier a season ago. Is he that much older or less special now? C’mon!

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (8th, 8th): His knee is fine. And Fred Jackson is not.
Tier 3
Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns (9th, 9th): Minor concerns about the knee and shin issues, that’s all.

Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (10th, 10th): You know, if he really does catch 30 passes this season, that would be nice. Still, like all the others ahead of him, he’s in my first round.


Tier 4


Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (11th, 11th): Still a terrific offense, but there’s little chance Ridley will catch passes. Morris could do it.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (12th, 12th): Forte will do it, but he doesn’t score the touchdowns.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (13th, 14th): Top-5 guy a year ago. Now he’s healthy and motivated for one last contract. I like the possibilities, though I did rank a certain wide receiver ahead of him.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans (14th, 15th): Still a major home run threat.

Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (15th, 16th): I’ve seen colleagues rank him 11th overall, and I really don’t dislike him as much as the rank appears. It’s the same tier as Ridley. Of course, he’s not 30 years old.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (16th, 17th): Kind of underrated now.
Tier 5
Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (17th, 26th): Major drop-off from Gore to him in my overall rankings, but I had to get the safe wide receivers and top quarterbacks ranked. And let’s face it, Bush is a wonderful fit for this offense, but he’s disappointed before.

David Wilson, New York Giants (18th, 27th): We saw on Saturday when he broke an 84-yarder how good he can be. Frankly, I could see him ending up in the third tier.

Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints (19th, 30th): In the second tier of PPR formats.
Tier 6
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (20th, 34th): Pretty safe rookie at this point.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos (21st, 38th): Pretty unsafe rookie, I’d say. But major upside.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (22nd, 40th): He’s going to start, and emerge. It’s unfair to judge him too harshly from his rookie campaign. He’s only 22 years old.


Tier 7



Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (23rd, 44th): Well, I have no problem if others land this brittle guy.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (24th, 45th): Him too. Call this the injury-prone tier.


Tier 8
Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams (25th, 56th): You’re saying this is too generous for an unproven running back, but I see upside in him, Sam Bradford, several receivers and tight end Jared Cook, too.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (26th, 58th): Even if he misses a game or two, still a nice player.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (27th, 61st): Ugh. But how much further can I really drop him if I’m extolling the virtues of guys like Lamar Miller?
Tier 9
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals (28th, 63rd): He’s not perfect, but he is starting.

Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona Cardinals (29th, 65th): Well, that describes him as well.

Andre Brown, Giants (30th, 66th): I honestly could see double-digit touchdowns.

Giovani Bernard, Bengals (31st, 67th): He might eventually be Sproles, but the Law Firm isn’t going anywhere yet. And the Law Firm scores touchdowns.

Shane Vereen, Patriots (32nd, 69th): Will also hold value by catching passes.


Tier 10

Chris Ivory, New York Jets (33rd, 72nd): Loved his work in limited action with the Saints. This Jets offense is not in the same stratosphere as the Saints. And Ivory is not durable.

Mark Ingram, Saints (34th, 78th): Ingram is going to have his best season, but will it be 900 rushing yards or 650? I say closer to 900.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (35th, 80th): Remember the year he was the first tier by himself? Ah, memories. Now it’s just tears.

Ben Tate, Texans (36th, 81st): Tell me Foster is out two months and Tate is in my fourth tier. That’s how good he can be.
Tier 11
Vick Ballard, Colts (37th, 89th): Little upside, really. I like Bradshaw.

Isaiah Pead, Rams (38th, 90th): He’s a backup.

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (39th, 94th): If you can exercise patience, and ignore perhaps six missed games, move him up 30 spots. But I can’t ignore the injury.

Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (40th, 98th): I can’t ignore the fumbles, or the presence of two bigger backs, one of whom can block for the great Peyton Manning.

Bernard Pierce, Ravens (41st, 101st): Others will expect more from him.

Isaac Redman, Steelers (42nd, 102nd): Well, he’s probably starting.

Mikel Leshoure, Lions (43rd, 107th): He’ll still be busy, I think.
Tier 12
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (44th, 110th): Says a lot that he might not even play, but he leads a tier with some interesting upside guys. Stewart has some upside, too.

Bryce Brown, Eagles (45th, 112th): If he can’t hold on to the football, he can’t play.

Johnathan Franklin, Packers (46th, 114th): I don’t think he’s next in line behind Lacy, either.

Knile Davis, Chiefs (47th, 121st): He’s probably next after Charles, but Charles is healthy.

Shonn Greene, Titans (48th, 122nd): Why Titans, why?

Bilal Powell, Jets (49th, 123rd): Just not special. The team and the player.

Michael Bush, Bears (50th, 125th): Forte really does look terrific now.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (51st, 127th): Wouldn’t shock me if he starts Week 1, or barely plays all season.


Tier 13


Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (52nd, 128th): Kind of had chances to prove himself, no?

Fred Jackson, Bills (53rd, 130th): Definitely had his chances.

Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers (54th, 131st): Ho-hum. Time to stop writing notes about these guys.

Pierre Thomas, Saints (55th, 133rd)

Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (56th, 135th): OK, one more. I don’t buy him starting.

Roy Helu, Redskins (57th, 137th)

Robert Turbin, Seahawks (58th, 139th)

Lance Dunbar, Cowboys (59th, 140th)
Tier 14
Rashad Jennings, Raiders (60th, 145th)

Marcel Reece, Raiders (61st, 148th)

Danny Woodhead, Chargers (62nd, 149th)

Zac Stacy, Rams (63rd, 155th)

Toby Gerhart, Vikings (64th, 157th)

LaMichael James, 49ers (65th, 159th)

Mike Gillislee, Dolphins (66th, 161st)

Mike Goodson, Jets (67th, 162nd)

Ryan Williams, Cardinals (68th, 163rd)

Joseph Randle, Cowboys (69th, 164th)
 

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Weekend wrapup: Buying into Mark Ingram
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Eric Karabell

While so many eyes are on the rookie running backs and their week-to-week August progression, it’s worth noting that the preseason is pretty much over for most of the relevant fantasy options. After all, the fourth week of the preseason will feature many names that won’t even make NFL teams. While there are a scant few rookie running backs I have my eye on -- with the Green Bay Packers’ Eddie Lacy at the top -- I’ll generally let others overdraft them. Instead, I’ve been watching more closely how the young veteran running backs with limited experience have done recently, and in the case of the New Orleans Saints’ Mark Ingram, the New York Giants’ David Wilson and the Miami Dolphins’ Lamar Miller, it’s been mainly positive.

In the case of Ingram, it’s universally recognized that Darren Sproles is the first Saints running back off the draft board -- and he should be -- but I’m starting to buy into Ingram becoming a possible weekly flex option in standard formats, if the Saints use him properly. Sure, there are red flags galore from Ingram’s first two disappointing seasons in terms of health and performance, but he’s 23. It’s not too late for him to emerge in an elite offense if healthy, and the performance has been there the past two weeks. The former Heisman Trophy winner seemed to lack quickness and burst his first two seasons, but late last season the Saints leaned more on Ingram, giving him many more carries than usual -- an average of 15 per game the final four weeks -- and he performed fairly well, with two of his four double-digit fantasy games. He broke some bigger carries in that stretch as well. Frankly, Ingram’s season numbers don’t tell the story. He closed well.On Sunday against the Houston Texans I saw some of the best and worst of Ingram as well: the fellow who is capable of finding a hole and sprinting through it, but also the guy who looks tentative at times when the blocking isn’t there, which can be a problem on the Saints. Ingram broke off a 23-yard rush, and he later took a short pass for 29 yards. That accounts for 52 of his 54 total yards for the day, so he didn’t do much on the other four touches, but focus on the upside. The Saints aren’t tired of him. With a healthy Ingram, they could establish a running game, and while they throw so much at the goal line while he’s frustrated on the sideline, even in somewhat limited use Ingram has five rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. It’s no stretch to visualize 800 rushing yards and eight scores, at least. Sure, Drew Brees throws a ton, Sproles is the pass-catcher and Pierre Thomas will see third-down work, but let’s not diminish a healthy Ingram from being valuable.
Meanwhile, Wilson and Miller might seem to be in vastly different situations, but I think they’re both capable of big things. Wilson broke off an impressive 84-yard touchdown jaunt to start off the battle of New Jersey on Saturday night, and while he did nothing else, he doesn’t need to. I happen to like the really large Andre Brown as well for the touchdowns, but Wilson has major upside. On Twitter, people were comparing him to Chris Johnson for his home run capabilities, and I see that, but don’t rule out the possibility of him being consistent as well, unlike Johnson. And please, cease with the fumbling problems, as he fumbled once as a rookie! Bryce Brown of Philly, now he can’t hold on to the football. Wilson will be fine; he has been named the starter and he’s not only staying safely among my top 20 running backs, he’ll likely crack my top 25 overall.
Then there’s Miami, where I cannot grasp the team’s compulsion with Daniel Thomas, as Miller seems considerably better. Miller blasted through the line for 20 yards on his first carry Saturday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and finished with 35 yards on eight carries. Thomas had one 5-yard run, and on his other six rushes cumulatively lost two yards. Miller is going to be the starter, and I’ve resisted moving him down in the rankings all month because I haven’t bought any of the themes coming from Dolphins camp about a running back time-share, or Mike Wallace struggling. Miller had a disappointing rookie season, like Ingram and Wilson, all underutilized frankly, but that’s changing now.
Here are some other notes from a busy weekend:
• Arizona Cardinals veteran Rashard Mendenhall left Saturday’s game with what he called looseness in his right knee, but he actually looked good on his six rushes, gaining 47 yards. It’s looking like Ryan Williams is not next in line, though he finally played Saturday. Really, it was noticeable that the oft-ripped Cardinals offensive line made life easier for Mendenhall and No. 2 guy Alfonso Smith, and protected Carson Palmer fairly well. I’ll move Mendenhall up in my rankings; he’s too low to start with and I don’t think this knee problem is a big deal.
• Mendenhall’s former team has running back problems, with rookie Le'Veon Bell on the shelf until perhaps October. The Pittsburgh Steelers acquired retread Felix Jones from the Philadelphia Eagles -- they weren’t going to keep him -- and watched him plod his way to 29 yards on eight carries Saturday. Jonathan Dwyer didn’t look any better. Isaac Redman sat with a minor neck injury, which is probably nothing more than the Steelers wanting to protect their September starter. Redman isn’t special, but the point here is that Jones isn’t even a lock to make this team, and Redman should start being drafted in more leagues.

• New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady really leaned on rookie Kenbrell Thompkins on Thursday night in Detroit, targeting him 12 times, eight of which were receptions for 116 yards. Why is this a good thing, one guy getting so much run in one game that the team couldn’t score a touchdown in until the final minute? It will likely overinflate Thompkins’ value. The Patriots were down 40-3 in this game. Thompkins, Aaron Dobson and tight end Zach Sudfeld all possess major upside in this offense, but I don’t think it’s such a good thing the Patriots couldn’t score and there are so few healthy veterans for Brady to throw to. Thompkins might be a 1,000-yard receiver as a rookie, but I’m reminded that one can count all the rookies to achieve this distinction in my lifetime on one hand, so I’m going to let others overdraft the Patriots rookies.
• There’s nothing wrong with Seattle Seahawks stud Marshawn Lynch, but if this is the year the many rushing attempts catch up to him, watch out for rookie Christine Michael. The Texas A&M product ran all over the Green Bay Packers reserves Friday night -- yes, reserves, but the kid is physical and very fast -- and he figures to get chances to catch the ball out of the backfield in games that matter as well. There’s no real need to handcuff anyone to Lynch yet, but Michael is a name to remember.
• Poor Mark Sanchez. The New York Jets quarterback just doesn’t have a chance this season, frankly. I’m not sure any Jets do. With little threat at quarterback, I don’t see how Chris Ivory is going to blossom or stay healthy. I mean, it’s one thing to take handoffs from Drew Brees and rip apart a defense, but Geno Smith and Sanchez look terrible. Ivory and Bilal Powell combined for 31 rushing yards on 19 chances. I don’t trust Ivory, frankly, and he’s going to fall out of my top 30 running backs, past even Ryan Mathews, which says something.
• Meanwhile, in Oakland, it sure looks like former Ohio State miscreant Terrelle Pryor is going to win the starting job. How did Matt Flynn ever have a six-touchdown game with this arm? Pryor is an athletic specimen that nobody seems to be treating like the other young, raw, unaccomplished quarterbacks (like Geno Smith and EJ Manuel), but take another look. He ripped apart the Chicago Bears' reserves on the ground and through the air Friday, and while there’s quite a mess around him offensively as well -- the line, the injured star running back, etc. -- I’m kind of tempted in a deep dynasty league to take a shot.
 

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[h=1]Most overvalued fantasy TEs[/h][h=3]Kyle Rudolph tops ranking of five TEs being drafted too high this season[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

This is a year in which tight end fantasy value flattens out very quickly after the top picks are taken at this position. That leveling off makes it harder to overvalue players, but it hasn't prevented a handful of tight ends from being overvalued in fantasy drafts.
This third in a four-part series (we previously looked at overvalued QBs and RBs) aims to assist fantasy owners by identifying five tight ends who fall into this category. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN.com's average draft position) than they should be based on my own value analysis.
Here are my five most overvalued tight ends:

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[h=3]1. Kyle Rudolph[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 80.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 6
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 13
This could be a classic case where a player's numbers spike thanks to an unreasonably high touchdown volume one year, then plummet the next season. Rudolph's eight short-pass touchdowns (short being defined as passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) last year led tight ends in that category, and only one wide receiver (Eric Decker) caught more.
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As impressive as those figures are, they belie Rudolph's actual production level. His 5.6 overall yards per attempt mark ranked next to last among tight ends and was last among tight ends with 50 or more targets. Short passes accounted for 75.3 percent of his overall targets, a total that ranked ninth in that category and indicates he doesn't offer much in terms of downfield receptions. Low production levels are not a new thing, as Rudolph struggled in YPA in his days at Notre Dame.
Five of Rudolph's short-pass touchdowns last season came on play-action bootleg plays, and he was basically left uncovered on four of those plays. Defenses are not likely to let these coverage gaffes happen again. Add in a schedule that my draft guide has ranked as one of the toughest for tight ends and it likely equals a significant drop in production for Rudolph this year.

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[h=3]2. Antonio Gates[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 89.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 9
TFS positional rank: No. 14
Gates isn't the superstar he used to be. In fact, now he is something of a one-trick pony. Last year, that trick was scoring on medium-depth passes (defined as aerials thrown 11-19 yards), as Gates scored all seven of his touchdowns on routes run at that depth level. For fantasy owners, the trouble is he did next to nothing outside of those throws.
His 8.3 vertical YPA (on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked tied for 35th among tight ends, and his 2.8 stretch vertical YPA (passes thrown 20 or more yards) ranked dead last among tight ends with at least five stretch vertical targets. Even more damaging was his 5.8 short pass YPA (tied for 29th), as it indicates he doesn't possess the dink-and-dunk prowess necessary for success in the Chargers' new short-pass-oriented offense. There are many tight ends who can equal or surpass Gates' limited upside and do so without the downside potential he brings to the table.

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[h=3]3. Brandon Pettigrew[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 133.6
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 16
TFS positional rank: No. 22
It's amazing Pettigrew's fantasy reputation hasn't taken more of a hit than it has. He garnered only 93 targets last year in a season when his quarterback threw 740 passes. The reason Pettigrew didn't see more targets is that he was one of the least productive tight ends in the NFL.
To get an idea of just how bad he was, consider that Tony Scheffler, a journeyman who was Detroit's backup tight end last year, had better figures in YPA (6.5 for Scheffler, 6.1 for Pettigrew) and VYPA (8.8 for Scheffler, 6.8 for Pettigrew) on 77 targets. Pettigrew also ranked next to last among qualifying tight ends in vertical target rate (18.3 percent), so he isn't a big part of the Lions' downfield passing game. With Ryan Broyles developing into a very good dink-and-dunk receiver, Pettigrew's target chances are likely to drop off, and his fantasy value will drop along with them.

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[h=3]4. Zach Sudfeld[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 131.6
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 15
TFS positional rank: No. 19
Sudfeld's sudden rise on the fantasy tight end charts stems from New England's solid backup tight end productivity the past couple of years, but let's not forget some of his negatives. He is a rookie who caught only 47 passes in his college career. He will be battling Jake Ballard for the Patriots' No. 2 tight end targets and could be looking at third-TE-caliber targets when Rob Gronkowski returns.
Factor in the Patriots' passing-game woes in the short term and the long term -- as well as Sudfeld's lost fumble in the preseason game against Detroit -- and it should put a damper on his perceived fantasy value.

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[h=3]5. Ryan Otten[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 170.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 23
TFS positional rank: Unranked
There are always anomalies at the tail end of fantasy drafts, but Otten's 26.1 percent ownership rate is by far one of the most notable anomalies of this year. He's a rookie backup tight end on a bad offense who ranked fourth on his college team (San Jose State) in receptions last season.
That he is owned in more leagues than Coby Fleener (17.9 percent ownership rate) or Tyler Eifert (18.9 percent ownership), two highly talented tight ends who could end up with significant roles on their offenses, doesn't add up.
 

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Yeah, you heard me ...

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Richard James had a problem.

He was an engineer, so problems were what he dealt in. But he just couldn't crack this one. It was 1943 and sensitive instruments aboard naval ships were getting thrown about the ship. Because ships move violently when they are out at sea and these instruments were very sensitive, it was, to be kind, a poor combination.

It was this problem James was attempting to solve when he started working with tension springs. The idea was that these springs would suspend the instruments on the ship and stabilize them, even in rough seas, so the coils needed to be strong yet pliable.

It was during one of these long and so-far fruitless days that James got careless. When he knocked one of the springs off the shelf, the spring did something weird. As the Lemels-MIT website describes it, the spring didn't flop onto a heap but rather "the spring 'stepped' in a series of arcs from the shelf, to a stack of books, to a tabletop, to the floor, where it re-coiled itself and stood upright."

Richard James didn't know it just yet, but he had just invented the Slinky.

He had failed, of course, in his stated goal of finding a way to stabilize sensitive instruments aboard naval ships in rough waters, but over a 250 million Slinkys later, you don't hear that many complaints about it.

I bring this up because it's time, once again, for my bold predictions column. The idea, of course, is not that I nail outrageous predictions. To be a bold prediction, it has to be unlikely to happen. "Drew Brees will throw for over 4,000 yards" is not a bold prediction because he has done that every single year he has been in New Orleans. No, a bold prediction would be Drew Brees throws for less than 2,000 yards this year. That is a bold prediction because it is highly unlikely to happen.

So what use can we derive from highly-unlikely-to-happen predictions? To illustrate some of the players I have a strong feeling about, one way or the other. In this very column last year, I boldly predicted that "Matt Ryan throws for over 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns and is a top-five fantasy quarterback."

Now, I ended up getting that prediction wrong. He threw for 4,719 yards, 32 touchdowns and was the seventh-best fantasy quarterback. So he fell short on the touchdowns and end-of-year rank, but considering all the numbers were career highs and he outperformed his ADP, I doubt any of his owners were upset with where they got him last year. It's not a billion-dollar toy idea, but it's something.


Last year in this column I called for huge years from Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Jamaal Charles, Mike Williams and the Seahawks defense, plus a down year for Mike Wallace among others. Of course, I also was down on Andre Johnson and Trent Richardson and called for big years from the likes of Brandon Lloyd and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Ugh. This is high-risk, high-reward territory we are in, so don't use this as anything other than as intended: As a way to highlight players I feel strongly one way or the other about, as a way for you to feel better about your own predictions, and to subtly remind you that I still have a book out with that fancy box to the right. Now a New York Times best seller!

So here you go. One bold prediction per NFL team, in alphabetical order, with my reasoning for it. Here's what I say ...

Arizona Cardinals: I say Carson Palmer, currently being drafted 22nd among quarterbacks, throws for over 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. You heard me. What I'm thinking: What's Bruce Arians gonna do, run it? Exactly. They are going to throw, throw, throw. Palmer threw for over 4,000 yards last year with no wide receivers nearly as good as Larry Fitzgerald. I actually like Andre Roberts, Michael Floyd and Rob Housler from a skills standpoint as well, and think Roberts in particular is a very interesting deep flier this year.

Atlanta Falcons: I say Steven Jackson leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns this year. What I'm thinking: If you've read anything from me this preseason, you know I'm all-in on Steven Jackson. He's a three-down back on an explosive offense that runs when it gets in close. If Michael Turner could get 10 rushing touchdowns last year, no reason the much better Jackson can't get to 15 or so, which is what led the NFL last year. All-in.

Baltimore Ravens: I say Ray Rice finishes the year as the No. 1 running back in fantasy. What I'm thinking: Pierce, schmierce. We looked at it: Last year, under current Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, Rice averaged just as many touches and had more red zone looks and goal-to-go touches than he did under Cam Cameron. Did you see where he got 16 touches the other day … in a preseason game? He will once again be the focal point of a good offense, and Vonta Leach coming back only helps.


Buffalo Bills: I say EJ Manuel, currently going 26th at the position, is a top-15 fantasy quarterback this year. What I'm thinking: This assumes he comes back soon, of course, but it's all about the rushing. His 28 yards rushing in a half against the Colts this preseason showed his potential, and the Bills offense is going to be better than you think. Not amazing, but better than you think. Also thought about a good Fred Jackson prediction here; he's going to be a lot more valuable than folks think.

Carolina Panthers: I say Greg Olsen, currently going eighth among tight ends, is a top-three fantasy tight end this year. What I'm thinking: He's still the second-best pass-catcher they have and there has been talk of limiting the designed runs for Cam Newton, so maybe he finally gets some more red zone looks. Starting in Week 10 last season, only Jimmy Graham had more fantasy points among tight ends.

Chicago Bears: I say over 2,000 all-purpose yards for Matt Forte (which would be a career high) and double-digit touchdowns. What I'm thinking: He's a perfect fit for Marc Trestman's offense, they will give him some (not all, but some) goal-line carries this year and he plays all 16 games.
Cincinnati Bengals: I say the Bengals D/ST finishes the year as the No. 1 scoring fantasy defense. What I'm thinking: Touchdowns are flukey, especially for defenses. Did you know San Diego and Tennessee both had nine defensive/special team touchdowns last year? The Bengals were fourth in defensive scoring last year (just 12 total points fewer than the Seahawks) and scored only four touchdowns. The ferocious pass rush is still there, they just need to get a little luckier with their scoring. Don't we all?
Cleveland Browns: I say Josh Gordon (being drafted 43rd among wide receivers), Jordan Cameron (14th at tight end) and the Browns D/ST (D/ST No. 19) all outperform their ADP by at least 10 spots. Brandon Weeden (QB No. 27) is a top-20 QB. You heard me. Four times. What I'm thinking: I like what I have seen this preseason, and the amount that I don't like Norv Turner as a head coach is almost as much as the amount that I like Norv Turner as an offensive coordinator. They are going to use the tight end, they are going to throw deep and the Browns defense is a lot better than you think it is.

Dallas Cowboys: I say the running back on the Cowboys with the most fantasy points at the end of the year? Lance Dunbar. You heard me. What I'm thinking: Other than DeMarco Murray will get hurt? Once Dunbar gets healthy, they're going to use him in a "Darren Sproles-type role" (that's actually what they said they'll do, not just me thinking it) and this is a pass-first team (31st in rush attempts last year). Bill Callahan promises a more balanced approach, but I'll believe it when I see it. Same thing for Murray staying on the field.

Denver Broncos: I say the running back on the Broncos with the most fantasy points at the end of the year? Knowshon Moreno. You heard me again. What I'm thinking: Ronnie Hillman can't hold onto the ball and Montee Ball is having protection issues. Meanwhile, Moreno is back healthy, played well down the stretch last year, kept Peyton Manning upright and, with the up-tempo no-huddle offense they want to run (plus Peyton audibling all the time, which is too a verb), Moreno won't come off the field once he gets on there.

Detroit Lions: I say Reggie Bush sets the NFL record for receptions by a running back (currently 101, by Larry Centers in 1995; Eric Metcalf played WR the year he got 104). What I'm thinking: I feel like I've talked about Reggie Bush in every article this preseason, so why stop now? The Lions targeted running backs 129 times last season, and that was with Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. Dude.
Green Bay Packers: I say Eddie Lacy, currently going as running back No. 21 in the fifth round, finishes as a top-10 running back. What I'm thinking: It's not as if they won't have scoring opportunities. Double-digit touchdowns seems very doable here and the Packers were 16th in rushing attempts last year, and that was with Alex Green leading the team with 135 totes, 31st in the league. Now that they have a running back who they can feature, the Packers can go even heavier on the run, and with DuJuan Harris out for the season, Lacy gets majority of work and a crack at the goal-line carries.


Houston Texans: I say DeAndre Hopkins has a better fantasy season than Andre Johnson. What I'm thinking: Now that everyone has bought back in that Johnson isn't a health risk, he gets injured again and misses significant time. Plus, the double-teams on him open up Hopkins for more targets, especially in the red zone, where Johnson never gets any love (he's never had double-digit scores in a season).

Indianapolis Colts: I say T.Y. Hilton, currently being drafted as wide receiver No. 32, finishes as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. You heard me. What I'm thinking: He's the best wide receiver on this team (you heard me) and soon, the Colts will realize it. The big-play ability, the run after the catch; Reggie Wayne will still get his, but Hilton's talent will soon be too much to ignore.

Jacksonville Jaguars: I say Maurice Jones-Drew plays all 16 games and has the best statistical year of his career. What I'm thinking: Healthy, something to prove and an offense that is in better shape than it has been for quite some time.

Kansas City Chiefs: I say Dwayne Bowe, currently going 18th among wide receivers, is a top-five fantasy wide receiver. What I'm thinking: Pretty simple. Andy Reid likes to throw and when they throw, they are throwing it to Dwayne Bowe. He has been a top fantasy wideout before and now he has a competent QB to get him the ball.

Miami Dolphins: I say Lamar Miller, currently the 25th running back off the board, finishes with over 1,500 total yards and eight touchdowns. What I'm thinking: I've seen Daniel Thomas play. And I love Miller's talent.

Minnesota Vikings: I say Cordarrelle Patterson is the best fantasy wide receiver not only of this year's rookie class, but on the Vikings as well. What I'm thinking: Other than that I don't trust Greg Jennings to stay healthy? The Vikings will force the ball to Patterson, an explosive playmaker, with bubble screens, handoffs, quick slants, etc. He'll be starting sooner than later.
New England Patriots: I say Zach Sudfeld, currently going in the 14th round, is a top-10 fantasy tight end. What I'm thinking: The same thing I wrote about last week; That the Patriots attempted the third-most passes to tight ends, despite Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez missing a combined 12 games. And they've thrown the most passes to tight ends in the past three years. You're telling me Sudfeld can't get 700 yards and 6 TDs, which is what tight end No. 8 (Owen Daniels) did last year?

New Orleans Saints: I say Mark Ingram, currently going 34th among running backs, is a top-20 back this year. What I'm thinking: What am I gonna do, pump up Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham? Darren Sproles and Marques Colston are what they are, but there's real potential for a fully healthy (so far!) Ingram who will be more involved in the offense. He has even caught a few passes!

New York Giants: I say David Wilson is a top-10 fantasy running back. What I'm thinking: Phenomenal talent, big-play ability, no more Ahmad Bradshaw, I just picked him in the 16-team "War Room" league and really need him to deliver so I'm talking myself into it ... pick a reason, any reason.

New York Jets: I say someone on this team will be a usable fantasy starter. What I'm thinking: It's the Jets. What do you want from me? If Chris Ivory stays healthy he'll be a top-20 running back. One of the receivers (Jeremy Kerley?) will emerge. So yes, sorry, but you are going to have to pay attention to this team for a bit this year.

Oakland Raiders: I say Marcel Reece has the most fantasy points of any Raiders running back. Yep. You heard me. What I'm thinking: He almost did it last year, finishing second to Darren McFadden. He's a nice pass-catcher, the Raiders are going to be down and throwing a lot and mostly checkdowns, as they don't have the most accurate passers in Oakland. Oh, and I don't think McFadden stays healthy, but that's not really a bold prediction, is it? Oh, and I also don't believe in Rashad Jennings. Came close to doing a Rod Streater prediction, incidentally. Like Streater in deep PPR leagues.

Philadelphia Eagles: I say Michael Vick stays healthy all 16 games and becomes a top-five fantasy quarterback. What I'm thinking: Nowhere to go but up in Vick predictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers: I say 1,000 yards each for Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. What I'm thinking: It's not as though the Steelers can run the ball. Both of these receivers are nice fits for a short-passing offense that will try to get them in space and take advantage of yards after the catch. (See, if they pass short, they don't have to block as long.)

San Diego Chargers: I say Danny Woodhead is top five in the NFL in running back receptions and makes for a sneaky-good PPR play. What I'm thinking: Ryan Mathews can't stay healthy and this is a team that is going to be down and throwing. A lot. Philip Rivers has suddenly become a checkdown king.


San Francisco 49ers: I say Vernon Davis, currently going fifth among tight ends, is not a top-12 tight end this year. What I'm thinking: I'm not buying this whole "Davis is going to line up wide and it's going to be a huge boon to his value" thing. They did it some last year and the numbers weren't amazing. Once Colin Kaepernick took over, Davis wasn't even the best fantasy tight end on his team; Delanie Walker had more fantasy points. This is still a run-first offense and Davis is too inconsistent to justify his current draft position. A good postseason does not a fantasy star make.

Seattle Seahawks: I say over 1,000 yards and 10 scores for Golden Tate. What I'm thinking: Russell Wilson is going to make someone a star this year, and Tate has the best odds of being that guy.

St. Louis Rams: I say Chris Givens, currently going 40th among wide receivers, has 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. What I'm thinking: A big-play threat who has a shot to take it to the house anytime he gets the ball, he's going to get three or four long pass attempts a game. If converts them half the time -- he had five straight games last year with a pass play of over 50 yards -- we're in business.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I say everything falls apart and no Buccaneer lives up to his draft-day ADP. What I'm thinking: I'm just sort of nervous about Josh Freeman. If he really struggles, does he bring Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams down with him? And then teams start focusing on stopping Doug Martin, running behind a struggling offensive line. Something just doesn't seem 100 percent so far in the preseason.

Tennessee Titans: I say Chris Johnson is back, baby, to being a legit top-five fantasy running back. What I'm thinking: He looks good. Spry, healthy, quick, I'm buying the revamped offensive line and the removal of Chris Palmer as offensive coordinator. Not worried about Shonn Greene for two reasons: One, goal-line carries have never been a huge part of CJ2K's fantasy value anyway, and two, he's Shonn Greene.

Washington Redskins: I say Aldrick Robinson has 850 yards and seven touchdowns this year, or basically what T.Y. Hilton had last year. What I'm thinking: I just love this kid's talent and the Skins need to throw deep to keep defenses honest around Alfred Morris, and throwing out of play-action is a staple of the offense.
 

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Separating wide receivers into tiers
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Eric Karabell


Unlike the running backs, where the talent pool of options worthy of starting for a normal fantasy team just isn’t deep at all, there is tremendous depth at wide receiver. Still, separating those at this position into tiers -- as I did Monday with running backs -- plays an important role and can make life easier and more fun on draft day.
Here are my updated levels of tiers for wide receivers, and since I think it’s important, I’ve sneaked in the names of the relevant tight ends -- there aren’t many, really -- and where they would fit in with others who make their living catching footballs. After all, tight ends can be used in the flex position in most leagues and we do include them in the flex rankings -- yes, they’re coming back! -- during the season. Here we go.


Tier 1
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (1st WR, 13th overall): The reason he's not in my overall top 10 isn't because of his performance. He’ll probably improve some this season. It’s because of the lack of running back depth. He's still the best at wide receiver, and the productivity difference should be even larger in 2013.
Tier 2
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (2nd WR, 18th overall): Very consistent most of last season.

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (3rd, 19th): When he’s interested, he’s amazing.

Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears (4th, 20th): Still a PPR monster.

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (5th, 21st): Too early to expect that he can’t reach greater heights.

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (6th, 22nd): Top choice for Peyton Manning still.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (7th, 23rd): Surprise! Carson Palmer revives Fitz. Remember, the interceptions don’t count against Fitzgerald’s ledger.
Tier 3
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (8th, 28th): Ready to become a star.

Roddy White, Falcons (9th, 29th): Keep waiting for him to fall apart; it’s not happening.

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10th, 31st)

*Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (1st tight end, 32nd overall): As with the quarterbacks and Calvin Johnson, the reason he’s not ranked higher is more about the running back scarcity than any of his issues. Big season is ahead.

Victor Cruz, New York Giants (11th, 33rd)
Tier 4
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (12th, 39th): Showed he’s not close to done, but he’s not top 10 either.

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (13th, 41st)

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (14th, 42nd): See Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald. Wayne’s not too old, and the quarterback upgrade saved his career.

Wes Welker, Broncos (15th, 43rd): Will fall short of 100 receptions, but not by much.
Tier 5
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (16th, 46th): Here’s the tier of former top-10 guys with upside, and considerable downside as well. Do you feel lucky? How do these guys feel?

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (17th, 47th): Ryan Tannehill will find him plenty.
Tier 6
*Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (2nd TE, 55th overall): I put the over/under at 13½ games.

Hakeem Nicks, Giants (18th, 57th)

Eric Decker, Broncos (19th, 59th): Don’t concern yourself with him being a No. 3 receiver on his own team, because if said team throws a ton, it’s still better than being the top Jaguars receiver, for example. Though I like the top Jaguars receiver, as you’ll see soon.

Tier 7


Danny Amendola, New England Patriots (20th, 60th): Belongs in his own tier. If he plays 15 games, then wow, he’s a top-10 guy. Yes, I believe that. He could also miss so many games that he’s outside the top 50 wide receivers. He’s never reached 700 yards or four touchdowns in a season, so he gets his own tier, one I’m likely avoiding.
Tier 8
*Tony Gonzalez, Falcons (3rd at TE, 62nd overall): Remember when he was too old … back in 2008?

*Jason Witten, Cowboys (4th at TE, 64th overall): And the tight end studs end here.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (21st, 68th)

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (22nd, 70th): Yes, he made my “Do not draft” list and I still took him in the Twitter Mock Draft because he slipped outside the top 20 wide receivers, which is where I rank him. He’s not bad, just a tad overrated if you think the Mike Wallace defection means something major.

Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (23rd, 71st)

James Jones, Packers (24th, 73rd): This guy is better than you think, even if the touchdowns are cut in half. Of course …

Jordy Nelson, Packers (25th, 74th): … it’d be nice for Jones if this guy misses some games. If Nelson plays them all, he moves ahead of Jones, though perhaps up only one tier.

Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (26th, 75th): Go ahead and expect the big breakout. Just doesn’t catch enough passes, so it’s all touchdown-generated.

Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins (27th, 76th)
Tier 9
T.Y. Hilton, Colts (28th, 77th): Little speed guys with touchdown potential but little upside for total receptions. They’re not Tier 9 in PPR formats.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles (29th, 79th)
Tier 10
Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills (30th, 82nd): He will need a quarterback at some point, but I haven’t downgraded him.

Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings (31st, 83rd): He’s probably figured out already that Christian Ponder is most definitely not Aaron Rodgers. And that does matter.

Mike Williams, Buccaneers (32nd, 84th)

Miles Austin, Cowboys (33rd, 85th)

Lance Moore, Saints (34th, 86th)

Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (35th, 87th): I think he can do what Michael Crabtree was doing.

Tier 11


Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams (36th, 88th): This is why Sam Bradford has become relevant. The next guy is pretty good too. If the difference in draft value is more than two rounds, pounce on the next guy.

Chris Givens, Rams (37th, 89th)
Tier 12
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (38th, 92nd): A rookie who doesn’t figure to play like one.

Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (39th, 93rd): The first Russell Wilson weapon is ranked 39th. Says a lot but doesn’t mean you should avoid the quarterback. He didn’t have Percy Harvin at his disposal last year either, and things went fine.

Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers (40th, 95th): Seems like a better bargain than his colleague Antonio Brown.

Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders (41st, 96th): He and Terrelle Pryor could make things more interesting than you think.
Tier 13
Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns (42nd, 103rd)

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans (43rd, 104th)

Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers (44th, 105th) So underrated a few months ago that he’s no draft sleeper anymore. Everyone knows.

Rueben Randle, Giants (45th, 106th): Anytime I see Hakeem Nicks limping I get ready to move this fella up 20 spots.

Ryan Broyles, Lions (46th, 107th): Interesting prospect for a team that throws a million times.

Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots (47th, 108th): Keeps moving up all the draft rankings, and while I generally avoid rookies, it’s obvious what kind of upside is here. It’s Tom Brady!
*Tight end alert: At this point, Jared Cook (Rams), Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Greg Olsen (Panthers), Owen Daniels (Texans), the overrated Vernon Davis (49ers) and Antonio Gates (Chargers) slot in. But it’s late. Feel free to wait even longer at tight end, frankly. But I also see a big drop from the Tier 13 wide receivers to Tier 14.
Tier 14
Kendall Wright, Titans (48th, 119th)

Alshon Jeffery, Bears (49th, 120th): I kind of think Jay Cutler just keeps throwing the football to Brandon Marshall 20 times per game actually.

Michael Floyd, Cardinals (50th, 125th): Yeah, I like him, but expect inconsistency.

Andre Roberts, Cardinals (51st, 126th): Outscored Fitzgerald last season.

Malcom Floyd, Chargers (52nd, 129th)
Tier 15
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars (53rd, 134th)

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Colts (54th, 136th)

Jacoby Jones, Ravens (55th, 138th)

Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings (56th, 141st)

Brian Hartline, Dolphins (57th, 142nd)

Aaron Dobson, Patriots (58th, 143rd)

Golden Tate, Seahawks (59th, 147th)
*The next set of tight ends show up in this region, and really, they don’t look too much different from the previous set of tight ends (Brandon Myers, Giants; Martellus Bennett, Bears; Fred Davis, Redskins; Brandon Pettigrew, Lions; Jermichael Finley, Packers).
Tier 16
Santana Moss, Redskins (60th, 154th)

Robert Woods, Bills (61st, 156th)

Greg Little, Browns (62nd, 158th)

Stephen Hill, New York Jets (63rd, 160th)

Brandon LaFell, Panthers (64th, 165th)

Andrew Hawkins, Bengals (65th, 166th)

Justin Hunter, Titans (66th, 169th)

Nate Burleson, Lions (67th, 171st)

Santonio Holmes, Jets (68th, 173rd)

Brian Quick, Rams (69th, 174th)

Jon Baldwin, 49ers (70th, 176th)

A.J. Jenkins, Chiefs (71st, 177th)

Jeremy Kerley, Jets (72nd, 178th)

Keenan Allen, Chargers (73rd, 180th)
 

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[h=1]Most overvalued fantasy WRs[/h][h=3]A.J. Green, Wes Welker among WRs being drafted too high[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

Outside of quarterbacks, there may not be a position in fantasy football with more quality depth than wide receiver.
This rich vein of talent gives fantasy owners the luxury of waiting to pick wideouts in drafts. However in some cases, the wait isn't long enough and this is causing certain receivers to be selected too soon.
This is the fourth in a four-part series assisting fantasy owners by identifying 10 wide receivers who fall into the category of being overvalued. These players are being taken earlier in drafts (as determined by ESPN's average draft position) than they should be, based on my own value analysis.
Here are my 10 most overvalued wide receivers.



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[h=3]1. A.J. Green[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 16.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 2
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 4

Green is one of the most dominant pass-catchers in the NFL, but his fantasy football case is hurt by one of the toughest cornerback schedules for a wide receiver this season. Dez Bryant has just as much of a statistical impact as Green, and he has a much more favorable slate. My draft guide also has Brandon Marshall with a much better matchup docket than Green, and that is why Bryant and Marshall should be considered higher percentage picks.

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[h=3]2. Wes Welker[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 35.3
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 11
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 18

There really is no getting around this -- the target math for the Broncos' wide receivers simply doesn't add up. Denver's offense is prolific, but it cannot sustain Demaryius Thomas at 142 targets, Eric Decker at 126 targets and Welker at the 166-target mark he reached in New England last season. Thomas and Decker likely will give up some targets, but even with those contributions, Welker probably still will be capped at something in the range of 110-120 targets. That will drop his fantasy value by about 20 points.

Looking at last year's figures, that level of decline would have moved Welker from 12th to 19th in fantasy points, so his perceived fantasy value this year should be more along the lines of a low-end WR2 rather than a high-end WR2.

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[h=3]3. Victor Cruz[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 39.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 13
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 16

One experiment to do when grading players is to see how their numbers would fare if one or two of their biggest plays of the season were taken out of the equation. Do that for Cruz, and he loses an 80-yard touchdown pass against Tampa Bay in Week 2 and a 77-yard touchdown catch against Washington in Week 7. Those two plays accounted for one-eighth of Cruz's points from last year, so their removal would eliminate 16.7 percent of his fantasy value. They also account for nearly half of his stretch vertical yards (defined as passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield).
It is possible Cruz will hit two plays of that caliber this year, but if he doesn't, it will require a good amount of additional production elsewhere to replace them. He also struggled against solid or stronger cornerback competition (5.6 YPA) and that is not a good sign with a cornerback schedule that has Cruz facing 13 coverage players of that caliber. A mid-range WR2 ranking might actually be a bit high for him.

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[h=3]4. Reggie Wayne[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 44.6
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 15
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 19

There is a risk in investing too high of a draft pick in a player whose value stems largely from a huge number of targets. Wayne was second only to Calvin Johnson in terms of overall targets (188) and vertical targets (89, defined as passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield), both of which are likely to fall off in Year 1 of offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's system. Even with the extraordinary target volume, Wayne still had fantasy production issues. He had seven double-digit games last season, but followed up those contests with six or fewer points on four occasions.
His 5.5 short-pass YPA (on aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) tied for 69th in that category, and he scored only one short-pass touchdown. Those elements offset a good amount of his dink-and-dunk value, and are part of why Wayne's draft-day stock is more low-end WR2 than mid-range WR2.

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[h=3]5. Danny Amendola[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 49.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 17
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 33

Amendola is seen as being the next version of Welker, but there are many reasons to think he won't be up to that task. The most obvious is the durability question: Welker has missed only three games in his eight-year NFL career, and Amendola has missed 22 games in four seasons. Not quite as obvious is Welker's huge lead in productivity, especially on short passes. Welker's 7.7 YPA in this category last season was tied for eighth-best overall in that metric, while Amendola's 5.2-yard mark ranked 37th out 41 receivers with at least 50 short-pass targets.
Amendola is also due to face five red-rated cornerbacks (red being the toughest level of matchup in my system), including back-to-back matchups in Weeks 15 and 16. It's possible that he may end up replicating Welker, but his current ADP looks to assume this is a certainty rather than a possibility.

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[h=3]6. Steve Smith[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 57.5
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 20
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 24

To some degree, Smith's ADP makes sense, as he finished the 2012 season ranked 20th in wide receiver fantasy points. However, that assumes his production level will remain the same. This could be a problem for a wideout who has posted mediocre short-pass metrics (6.4 YPA, tied for 45th) and dismal medium-pass numbers (8.4 YPA, which ranked 66th). He also scored only four touchdowns, despite being one of the most vertically targeted receivers in the NFL (80 vertical targets, fourth-most in the league).
It doesn't help that Smith is 34 years old, an age that doesn't portend well for statistical improvement. The safe play is to say Smith's numbers will decline at least a bit in 2013, and that drops him to WR3 level.

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[h=3]7. James Jones[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 60.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 22
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 28

How many times have fantasy owners seen this -- a player comes out of nowhere to produce big points one year, only to fall back to his former scoring level the following season? The answer is way too often, and Jones looks like the next example of this. His 14 receiving touchdowns led the league in 2012, and yet the rest of his metrics indicate he is a good but not great wide receiver. His 8.6 overall YPA ranked tied for 42nd, and his 10.9 vertical YPA (VYPA) was tied for 49th. Those numbers look even worse when noting Jones plays in the Green Bay offense, and thus should be posting even better totals.
Jones posted a 6.1 YPA when facing solid cornerback competition last season and that is a significant concern, because he has a schedule featuring eight CBs of that caliber in 2013. The additions of Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin also could take away some of Jones' scoring opportunities. Take away half of his touchdowns from last year, and Jones would be a low-end WR2. However, because he scored seven touchdowns only once in his five NFL seasons prior to last year, the safer route is to consider him a WR3.

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[h=3]8. Antonio Brown[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 68.1
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 24
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 29

Brown is a medium-route specialist, but those routes work a lot better when there is a stretch vertical wide receiver of the caliber of Mike Wallace to put the fear of the long pass into the secondary. As good as Emmanuel Sanders and Markus Wheaton may be, they are not going to stretch defenses in the same way Wallace did when he was operating at an elite level. Brown has scored only seven touchdowns in his two seasons as a starter, which could be happenstance, but still has to be something of a concern.

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[h=3]9. DeSean Jackson[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 70.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 41

Jackson's talent level is unquestioned, and it is why he was able to post double-digit YPA marks in many categories last season. The barrier to rating him higher in the fantasy football world is that it has been quite the task for Jackson to reach triple digits in target volume. He has done this in only three of his five NFL seasons, and has topped the 120-target mark only once. Out of the 25 top scoring wide receivers in fantasy last season, 23 of them had 100 or more targets, and 21 of them had 110 or more targets.
It's possible Jackson will showcase a new-found durability in the Chip Kelly offense, but the higher percentage play is to assume he'll have the same durability level as before -- and that makes him a possible WR3, but more realistically a WR4.

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[h=3]10. Torrey Smith[/h]Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 71.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 26
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 31

Smith may be adept at running a lot of downfield routes, but one thing he hasn't proven adept at is beating solid or better cornerback competition. He tallied a 5.1 YPA against that caliber of coverage last year, a mark that ranked in a tie for 71st in that metric. This doesn't bode well with a schedule that is one of the toughest in fantasy football. If Baltimore had other wide receivers capable of drawing coverage away from Smith, it might not be as big of a deal. Unfortunately, the Ravens have no one that close to Smith's talent level. It means he will be battling to get open all season, and that drops his value to the high-end WR4
 

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