Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Will Torrey Smith be a greater threat?[/h][h=3]Departure of Anquan Boldin could mean a larger role in Ravens' offense[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Is Torrey Smith capable of taking the next step from deep threat to all-around WR?

Heading into the 2012 season, Ravens receiver Torrey Smith presented an interesting case. Billed by some as a potential breakout fantasy player entering his second year, Smith basically repeated his rookie season. In total, that was pretty good:

[h=3]Torrey Smith, First two seasons[/h]

	Targets	Rec	Yds	TD
2011	93	50	841	7
2012	110	49	855	8

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But as is befitting a young wideout, Smith was entirely too up-and-down to allow you to feel comfortable using him last year. He scored five fantasy points or fewer in eight regular-season games, while scoring double-digit points in six games. He also caught two passes or fewer in eight games.

However, that was with Anquan Boldin around. Given Smith's 4.43 speed and Boldin's limited wheels at age 32, Smith was always likely to see more work downfield, and while downfield targets offer higher rewards, they also lead to higher variability. We can quantify this by looking at how far down the field these two WRs were targeted in '12:

[h=3]2012 Targets Breakdown[/h]

	Anquan Boldin	Torrey Smith
Behind line	6	6
0-9 yds	55	37
10-19 yds	31	25
20-29 yds	11	15
30-39 yds	3	11
40-plus yds	0	16

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Now, Smith didn't just run straight down the field with his hand in the air. I went back and watched all 49 of his grabs from last season, and was impressed with his ability to hook, in-cut and out-cut. However, it's clear from the target numbers that Joe Flacco preferred throwing the shorter stuff to the bigger, more polished Boldin (as well as tight end Dennis Pitta, who had 80 targets of less than 20 air yards last season).

But because Boldin will play for the San Francisco 49ers this season, there's an opportunity for Smith to inherit some of the higher-percentage routes on which Boldin subsisted. The Ravens' depth chart at WR behind Smith is pedestrian: Jacoby Jones, Tandon Doss, Tommy Streeter and Deonte Thompson. (Someone like Brandon Lloyd could be a fit in Baltimore, but nobody would mistake him for the burly Boldin.) Could Smith therefore vault into the 150-plus-target neighborhood, which would likely put him inside the NFL's top 10? I don't rule out the possibility, but history isn't on Smith's side. In his five-year pro career, Flacco has never had a 150-target player:

[h=3]Most Single-Season Targets, Ravens Since 2008[/h]

	Year	Targets
Derrick Mason	2009	130
Derrick Mason	2008	119
Torrey Smith	2012	110
Anquan Boldin	2012	106
Anquan Boldin	2011	105
Anquan Boldin	2010	105
Ray Rice	2011	103

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Famously, Flacco also has never had a 4,000-yard passing season or a top-16 fantasy wideout. In addition, take a look at where Smith and Boldin made their catches laterally last season:

[h=3]Location of Receptions, 2012 Season[/h]

	Between Hashes	Between Numbers	Outside Numbers
Anquan Boldin	10	24	31
Torrey Smith	1	21	27

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In his two pro seasons, Smith has a mere six catches between the hashes. In that same span, Boldin had 26. I don't want to say Smith can't be a force over the middle merely because he hasn't in the past, but he'll have to prove it in '13. And for a guy his size, it'll be a stretch. Smith is 6-feet and 205 pounds, and it's mighty tough to find players his size who line up primarily on the outside and catch passes going over the middle. (Smith ran just 36 of his 479 routes from the slot in '12.) Mike Wallace, a player to whom Smith is sometimes compared, has never had a season where he caught more than seven passes between the hashes. DeSean Jackson is also a smaller burner and had some early success over the middle (11 between-the-hash grabs in '09), but has gotten his bell rung enough that it's really no longer part of his repertoire.

As I see it, Smith has a few different paths to a top-20 fantasy WR season:

1. He could become a high-usage WR, but that likely would require him to run more routes over the middle and/or out of the slot. The Ravens have made a lot of noise about how Smith needs to "step up" in '13, but are they really ready to put him in the slot a bunch, lessening the impact of his wheels? If so, Greg Jennings (at least in his Green Bay Packers incarnation) could be a model for Smith in this regard.

2. He could become a major red zone presence, but in 2012 his 10 red zone targets were tied for 41st among WRs. (Boldin had eight last season.) If that happens, we'd be looking at a potential transformation into a Roddy White or Reggie Wayne kind of player, shorter guys who get a lot of red zone looks.

3. He could make even more big plays, becoming a guy whose huge weeks outweigh the disappointment of his fallow periods. Think Vincent Jackson.

Of these options, to me the third seems likeliest to happen, but it's also difficult to count on. Smith is probably good for high-single-digit TDs no matter what, but breaking free for a few extra bombs is likely a matter of luck.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Ravens really are planning on shaking up their WR usage and turning Smith into a true No. 1 in terms of volume and/or quality of opportunity. He's a fairly sure-handed kid and reportedly has a good head on his shoulders. You can't teach speed, plus Boldin is gone. For me, the likeliest scenario is that he remains mostly an outside receiver, and we see No. 2 tight end Ed Dickson step into the limelight, becoming an over-the-middle threat alongside Pitta. But the chance that I'm incorrect in this conclusion is what gives Smith inviting upside. I've currently got him 28th in my personal ranks, but I also understand the argument that, as a seventh-round pick in a standard ESPN league, Smith offers a tantalizing ceiling.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Favorable matchups for WRs[/h][h=3]Why Dez Bryant and others could have big fantasy seasons[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider


When it comes to the formula for football success, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier often quotes an adage passed down to him by Pepper Rodgers, who said coaches are only as good as their players and their schedule.

The same rule applies in fantasy football. It's great to stock a team with quality players, but it is better to stock a team with quality players who have schedules that bode well for their success.

This is especially true at the wide receiver position, as the one-on-one nature of wideout-cornerback matchups can make the difference between a game-winning-caliber performance and one that will bring about a depressing loss.

So which fantasy wide receivers have the most favorable schedules in 2013? And are they capable of taking advantage of those matchups?
<INLINE1>As we start, it helps to take a quick look at how schedule strengths are measured. In my 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, cornerbacks are graded with a color-coded matchup rating system. Red-rated cornerbacks are among the top third at their position and thus tend to be the matchups one wants to avoid if possible. Yellow-rated cornerbacks rate in the middle third of the league and thus are solid positional battles for wideouts. Green-rated cornerbacks are those in the bottom third of the league and therefore are the most favorable matchups from a wide receiver's perspective.

The guide then reviews which cornerback a wide receiver is slated to face each week and assigns a point total based on the color grade. Red-rated matchups give zero points, yellow-rated matchups award one point and green-rated matchups provide two points. This means the higher the wide receiver's matchup total, the more favorable his schedule is likely to be. Anything close to 10 points is considered a very difficult schedule, while 18-20 points serves as the bar noting an extremely positive set of matchups.

Let's take a closer look at the top candidates to find out which ones have the best matchups this season.

[h=3]Dez Bryant (17 matchup points)/Miles Austin (18 matchup points)[/h]<OFFER></OFFER>

Bryant's matchup point total ranks tied for 12th-best in the league, and that is an almost unfair edge given how dominant he was last year against any level of cornerback competition. His 11.1 yards per attempt against rated corners (cornerbacks of all color grades) was tied for third-best among all receivers and was tops among wideouts with at least 50 targets against that level of competition.
Austin wasn't quite as adept against rated cornerbacks (8.6 YPA, ranked 31st), but he did torch green-rated cornerbacks to the tune of 10.8 YPA. A number of that caliber should be a big help, since Austin has a 2013 schedule that contains five matchups against green-rated cornerbacks.
Another beneficiary here will be Tony Romo, as this is one of many reasons he has the opportunity to end the year as a top-five fantasy quarterback.

[h=3]Dwayne Bowe (20 matchup points)[/h]
Bowe looks to have everything going for him. He joins a very receiver-friendly Andy Reid offense and goes from one of the worst vertical quarterbacks in the NFL (Matt Cassel, 9.2 vertical YPA, tied for 33rd) to one of the best (Alex Smith, 13.3 vertical YPA, ranked third). Bowe also has the most favorable schedule of any starting wide receiver.
This all sounds great, but it comes with one caveat: Last year, Bowe managed to post a meager 6.6 YPA when facing rated cornerbacks (his ranking tied for 63rd). While some of the blame for this poor number can be placed on the arms of the mediocre Chiefs quarterbacks last year, Bowe wasn't that much better in this metric in 2011 (6.8 YPA on 87 targets). Those numbers do put a bit of a damper on what is otherwise a remarkable confluence of favorable factors.

[h=3]Sidney Rice (19 matchup points)[/h]
Last year, Rice obliterated rated cornerbacks. His 11.7 YPA versus that matchup caliber ranked second among qualifying wide receivers. Even more amazing is Rice's composite 11.1 YPA against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks. Only one wide receiver posted a higher YPA mark in that category on at least 30 targets (Cecil Shorts). This trait already puts defensive teams at a huge disadvantage when facing Rice, and they will be even harder pressed to deal with him now that the Seahawks have added Percy Harvin to their receiving corps. If Seattle starts to pass the ball a bit more often this year, Rice could be a WR3 candidate who posts WR2 (and maybe even WR1) fantasy point totals.

[h=3]Julio Jones (19 matchup points)[/h]
Jones was superb against rated cornerbacks in general (9.8 YPA, tied for 14th) but was especially dangerous when matched up against green-rated corners (12.8 YPA). This trait should make Jones one of the highest-upside wide receivers all season long; it will especially come in handy midseason. In Weeks 7-11, Jones has four green-rated cornerbacks over a five-game stretch. All total, he has six green-rated cornerbacks on his 2013 schedule, which is the highest number of matchups of that caliber among starting wide receivers.

[h=3]Vincent Jackson (18 matchup points)[/h]
Jackson is something of a mystery. He racked up double-digit YPAs both when covered by a rated cornerback (11.2, tied for third-best) and when covered by anyone other than a rated cornerback (11.3, tied for 13th).
That sounds great, until noticing that Jackson also posted a 3.7 YPA when facing red- or yellow-rated cornerbacks, a total placing him 80th out of 86 qualifying wide receivers (48 total attempts needed to qualify).
This was not the case in past years, as Jackson ranked as the best matchup-buster wide receiver in the NFL during the 2011 season.
Whether this drop-off occurred because of a difference in quarterback play, because Jackson took a step back against tough coverage competition or something else, it is a definite concern given that, despite the high matchup points total, Jackson has two red-rated and seven yellow-rated cornerbacks on his 2013 schedule. If last year is an accurate indicator, it could mean Jackson will be one of the most volatile hit/miss wide receivers in fantasy football this year.

 

[HacheMan]

Reid, Smith will reform Chiefs' offense

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

individuals whom fantasy owners will be relying on. Perhaps Reid's most important move initially was to acquire a smart, veteran quarterback to run his special offense.

Reid, the West Coast offense and former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith are all seemingly positive additions. Reid brings innovative ideas and a track record of success, but without a capable quarterback, it wouldn't mean much. Smith is an established quarterback, an accurate, mobile passer who has the ability to make others around him look good, especially Reid.

Don't get me wrong, I'm hardly hyping Smith as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, though it seems worth pointing out that he nearly achieved that distinction for the 49ers in the 2011 season. Smith didn't come close to 4,000 passing yards or 30 touchdown passes, but what he did thrive at was getting the football where it needed to go and avoiding turnovers. Smith completed 61.3 percent of his passes and tossed a mere five interceptions in 16 games that season. And though there's no comparison between him and someone like Drew Brees, avoiding negative fantasy points does serve a nice purpose. Perhaps Smith will reach 3,200 passing yards and 20 touchdowns this season, making him a serviceable fantasy reserve, but it's his effect on his teammates that fantasy owners should be most interested in.

<OFFER>In Reid's offense, if history tells us anything, Smith will be asked to throw the ball quite a bit more than he's used to, though not deep. This style of offense worked for the veteran coach for more than a decade with the Philadelphia Eagles. Reid relied on the interesting Donovan McNabb for much of that time, and let's be clear: He was the opposite of an accurate passer and wise decision-maker. Smith is going to thrive in this offense by dinking and dunking the football in short and intermediate routes and avoiding calamity, the so-called field general who won't lose games.

Smith lost his starting job in San Francisco last season not because he was struggling, but because he was sidelined by a concussion and the fact that younger Colin Kaepernick was clearly a special talent. Smith completed more than 70 percent of his passes in his nine starts and had 30 touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions the past two seasons. He also adds value running the ball. Chiefs fans will find out shortly just how much better he is than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn.

But enough about Smith. The reason his presence should appeal to fantasy owners, other than him being a good one-week fill-in in standard leagues (or decent No. 2 guy in multiple quarterback formats), is because his ability to run a pure, effective Reid West Coast offense will aid running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe most of all.

Charles bounced back from his wrecked knee to accrue more than 1,500 rushing yards last season, though fantasy owners still couldn't stop whining about the games in which he was underused and how he didn't pile up the touchdowns. But Reid doesn't underuse his top running backs. Just ask Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, accomplished pass-catchers out of the backfield who combined for four seasons of 70 or more receptions.


Charles is a true game-breaker, and with Reid around, he will see more touches. Last season, there were five games in which Charles didn't have more than 12 rushing attempts, and he saw a total of only 48 targets and caught 35 passes. It's reasonable to expect those receiving numbers to rise quite a bit, perhaps double, though he'll likely get fewer carries. Whatever works! In 2010, Charles averaged more than 29 receiving yards per game but was still underused. He showed last season that his acceleration and cutting ability was back. Reid will use him a ton, and while it's folly to predict a 20-touchdown season like McCoy produced in 2011, Charles should finally hit double digits.

Bowe opted to remain with the Chiefs, probably because of an overwhelming contract offer, but the new Reid offense figures to help him, assuming he wants to be helped. Let's remain positive and hope the enigmatic Bowe will be motivated to have a big season. Certainly Smith will be looking for him quite a bit. In this offense, it comes down to the two of them developing a rhythm and Bowe catching passes in stride.

He has remained statistically relevant with lesser quarterbacks throwing to him. The athletic Bowe should be eager to make big plays downfield, remembering that he caught 15 touchdown passes from Cassel, an average quarterback at best, in 2010 and had he stayed healthy last season, likely would have had his third consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season and fourth in five years. He's not Calvin Johnson, so don't get thoughts of a 2,000-yard season (or even 1,500 yards), but Reid is going to get him involved. Let's assume more catches per game than normal and about 1,200 receiving yards and eight or nine touchdowns. As such, Bowe is among my top 20 wide receivers.

As for other Chiefs to watch in this Reid/Smith offense, don't forget about the tight end, as it was a staple for Reid's Eagles teams. Tony Moeaki has had moments of productivity, but knee woes have hampered him. Travis Kelce is the hotshot rookie, but Reid doesn't have a reputation for using first-year players. Watch former Miami Dolphins touchdown-maker Anthony Fasano matter in deeper leagues. He's more blocker than receiver, but he clearly has been an end zone weapon over the years.

Meanwhile, speedy wide receiver Donnie Avery was brought in to stretch the field, but he isn't likely to reach 50 receptions or five scores. The versatile Dexter McCluster will get his chances in the slot, but he's not exactly DeSean Jackson. Bowe is the clear No. 1 guy, certainly capable of a top-10 wide receiver season but at the price on draft day of a No. 3 in most leagues. A case can be made that Charles should be the No. 2 overall pick, behind only Adrian Peterson.

Good for the Chiefs. Perhaps this sounds crazy, but every season, a last-place team or two contends. Don't be stunned if the Chiefs and their last-place schedule make things interesting in 2013.

 

[HacheMan]

Hundred Little Lies[h=3]100 facts you need to know before your draft[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

When you think of it, that no one knows who said it is kind of perfect.

Even Wikipedia can't agree. It notes that radical journalist Henry Du Pré Labouchère might be the guy and that Leonard H. Courtney mentioned it in 1895. That Eliza Gutch used it under a pen name, that Sir Charles Dilke used it in a speech in 1891, and that it showed up at a meeting of the Australasian Association for the Advancement of Science in 1892.

Nineteeth-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli gets credit for it, but he mostly gets credit for it from Mark Twain, and no one can find evidence of Disraeli using it. However, Twain himself put it in his "Chapters from My Autobiography" from 1906.

I'm speaking, of course, about the phrase "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

We don't know where it comes from, and that's sort of perfect, because the point is that we don't know anything. Especially when we think we know something.

Among the definitions of the word "lie" is this from the good folks at Merriam-Webster: "To create a false or misleading impression."

And under that definition, gentle reader, I have been lying to you pretty much every time I have opened my mouth.

And I've got news for you. I am not alone.

Every person who does any kind of analysis or is paid to give his opinion does it. The guy talking about the royal baby? He does it. The two guys arguing about the latest debate issue in Washington, D.C.? They do it. The high-powered CEO, the pop culture commentators, the girl in the cube next to you who has that big presentation to your boss next week? They all do it. Every fantasy analyst you read does it. Everyone who's appeared on one of ESPN's many debate-style shows does it, and I most certainly do it.

We present facts.

But only some facts.

The facts that support whatever opinion we have. We mislead you. And we do it on purpose. For example, I want to talk to you about an amazing running back who last season had his fifth straight season of double-digit touchdowns. Super durable, he hasn't missed a game in three straight seasons, and what you like is there are so many ways he can beat you. Last season, he had his career highs in receptions, targets and receiving touchdowns. This three-down threat has become more efficient as his career has gone on, as he is scoring once every 22 carries. This is the highest touchdown-per-carry rate of any running back with at least 200 carries last season. Ball security? Not an issue, as he lost the rock the fewest number of times since 2007 and his yardage total was almost twice what it was over the first two seasons he was in the league combined!


So yeah, make sure you draft Michael Turner early!

You see? I just talked up a player who, as longtime podcast listeners know, I can't stand. A player who doesn't have a NFL team as of this writing, who had his carries significantly reduced last season, who consistently got stuffed in short-yardage situations, who managed to catch one ball and score a touchdown -- his first-ever receiving score -- and who, by all accounts, appears to be done, even if he does manage to score a new gig. And if he does, it will not be as good a role with as many scoring opportunities as he had with Atlanta last season.

That example was extreme by design to illustrate what I (and everyone else) does with startling regularity. We do it because we have to. There's only so much time in the day to listen or read or watch, and there are endless statistics that can say whatever you want them to say.
So, the truth is, I study all the stats, do the research and talk to as many folks as I can, then I choose which stats I want to show/discuss/butcher. If my research shows I should like the guy, I tell you positive stats. If it's the other way, I highlight the negative.

Listen, I can talk up or talk down anyone; I just have to choose the right stats for the job. Or, rather, I just ask John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information to get me the right stats for the job, as I did at many different points throughout writing this column. John's a stats stud. Take him in the first round of your ESPN Stats & Info draft.

Although I believe I am a true master of researching statistics and then manipulating them to serve my narrative, I'm not alone. Everyone you listen to, read, watch, download, tweet and consume does it. We all do it because it's impossible -- and I mean impossible -- to get a complete statistical overview of a player.

Potential value changes with every game, play, personnel grouping and scheme. So, to make sense of the chaos, we have to make choices as to which stats we believe are important. Choice is opinion, and once any of us has an opinion, that OPINION is what shapes which facts are presented and how they are discussed.

If you're having a little bit of déjà vu, it's because I do a version of this column every year, and I happily cop to lying to you because I feel it's important. Extremely important. Throughout this preseason, you will have countless analysts tell you all sorts of reasons to draft this guy or avoid that one, so I want you to be aware that every stat thrown at you is really an opinion. A damned lie.

Your job? Figure out whom you trust and whose thinking aligns with yours, question everyone and everything you hear, take it all in and then make your own call. Ultimately, that's all that any of us is doing: taking a small piece of a big picture and making a call.
Everything that follows is 100 percent accurate. They are my attempts to influence how you think about certain players. Some are about football players; some are about teams and tendencies. And not one of them tells the whole story.


1. Over the past four seasons, Tom Brady has completed 72.7 percent of his passes to Wes Welker.

2. That percentage is second only to Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson among QB-WR combinations with at least 200 targets over that span.
3. Welker is no longer on the Patriots. Neither are Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd or Danny Woodhead. Should Rob Gronkowski miss the first game of the season, the Patriots player with the most 2012 receiving yards and still on the roster would be Shane Vereen, with 254.

4. Speaking of Welker, last season, he led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards when lined up in the slot.

5. Last season, no quarterback completed a higher percentage -- 71.7 percent, to be exact -- of his passes to slot receivers than … Peyton Manning.

6. From 2008 to 2010, the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning ran 2,309 plays out of three-receiver sets.

7. That was the most in the NFL during that time frame, 326 more plays than the second-place team.

8. Last season, the Broncos ran 706 plays with three-receiver sets, third-most in the league.

9. This offseason, Welker left the Patriots to join the Broncos.
10. More Peyton: For all the talk of "noodle arm," Manning completed 45.9 percent of throws more than 20 yards downfield. Only Robert Griffin III (with completions on 47.1 percent of such throws) was better.

11. By comparison, from 2008 to 2010, Manning's completion rate on throws more than 20 yards downfield was 31.6 percent.

12. In 2011, Matthew Stafford attempted 663 passes, had 16 interceptions and threw 41 touchdown passes. In 2012, Stafford attempted 727 passes, had 17 interceptions and threw for 20 touchdowns.

13. Last season, Calvin Johnson was tackled an NFL-leading eight times inside the 5-yard line.

14. In addition, he was tackled at the 1-yard line five times, most in the NFL.

15. In fact, last season, Lions wide receivers as a group were tackled 23 times at or inside the 5-yard line.

16. That was at least five more times than any other team.

17. In addition to the 18 interceptions Andrew Luck threw last season, he had 10 fumbles, five of which he lost.

18. Luck also had seven interceptions dropped by defensive players.
19. Those seven dropped interceptions were tied for the most in a season since 2009.

20. Last season, Luck also had five rushing touchdowns.

21. In the past 10 NFL seasons, only 12 quarterbacks have rushed for five or more touchdowns in a season.

22. Only two of those 12 quarterbacks followed it up with another season of five or more rushing touchdowns: Cam Newton and … Tim Tebow.

23. Of Luck's 4,374 passing yards last season, 2,636 (60.2 percent) came when the Colts were playing from behind.

24. That was the fifth-highest total in the NFL.

25. This season, the Colts will have former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano as their head coach for the whole season. Between free-agent signings, drafted rookies and players returning from injury, they could have seven new starters on defense.

26. Under Bruce Arians in 2012, the Colts' offense rushed on 37.2 percent of plays, 10th-fewest in the league.

27. During 2011-12, with new Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton as the Stanford offensive coordinator, the Cardinal rushed on 56.7 percent of plays. Isolating 2011, with Luck under center, Hamilton's Stanford offense rushed on 55.4 percent of plays.

28. In the first four weeks of last season, Griffin had 28 designed rushes, or seven per game. He also had six designed rushes at or inside the 10-yard line (1.5 per game) and scored four touchdowns. In Week 5, Griffin got hurt against the Falcons and left the game early.

29. In Weeks 6 through 14, Griffin had 41 designed rushes in eight games (or 5.1 per game). He also had just four designed rushes (0.5 per game) at or inside an opponent's 10-yard line and just one rushing touchdown. In Week 14, Griffin got hurt against the Ravens and left the game.

30. After missing the Week 15 game against the Browns, Griffin had 12 designed rushes in Weeks 16, 17 and the wild-card game (or four per game). He had just one designed rush at or inside the opponent's 10-yard line in those three games (0.33 per game) and just one touchdown.

31. Over the past four seasons, the only quarterback who's been sacked more than Ben Roethlisberger (152 times) is ... Aaron Rodgers (168).

32. Last season, two running backs averaged more than 6.0 yards per rush: Adrian Peterson and … C.J. Spiller.

33. No back with at least 125 touches had a better yards-per-touch average than Spiller (6.8).

34. Last season, with new Bills coach Doug Marrone as their coach, the Syracuse Orange ran the ball 555 times, 24th-most in FBS and 63 more times than any other team in the Big East.

35. Over the first 13 weeks of the 2012 season, 95 different running backs had more fantasy points than David Wilson (12).

36. Over the final four weeks of the 2012 season, only six running backs had more fantasy points than Wilson (55).

37. Per Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 70 carries, no one had more fantasy points per opportunity (carries and pass routes) than … Wilson.

38. Wilson averaged 5.0 yards per carry. He was one of only seven running backs to have at least 70 carries and average 5 yards or more per carry last season.

39. Frank Gore has seven straight seasons with at least 203 rushes.

40. In NFL history, only 10 players have had eight straight seasons with at least 203 rushes.

41. In Weeks 1-10 last season, with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback, Gore averaged 5.4 yards per rush and 1.9 yards after contact per rush.

42. In Week 11 through the Super Bowl, with Colin Kaepernick as the starting quarterback, Gore averaged 4.3 yards per rush and 1.4 yards after contact per rush.

43. Including the playoffs, 30-year-old Gore has had 692 touches the past two seasons. The only two running backs with more touches the past two seasons are 26-year-old Ray Rice and 27-year-old Arian Foster.

44. The 49ers also have LaMichael James, Anthony Dixon and Kendall Hunter on their team.

45. In Trent Richardson's final season at Alabama, he averaged 5.1 yards per rush between the tackles.

46. Last season, in his final season at Alabama, Eddie Lacy averaged 7.6 yards per rush between the tackles.

47. Over the past three seasons, only two teams in the NFL had more rushing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line than the Atlanta Falcons. They had 136 such attempts.

48. Over that same time frame, only the Tennessee Titans had fewer rushes inside the 10 than the St. Louis Rams, who had 61.

49. Over that same time frame, former Rams and new Falcons running back Steven Jackson was seventh in the NFL in yards after contact in goal-to-go situations.

50. That average was better than Peterson's and Foster's, among many others.

51. In case you were wondering, over the past three seasons, Turner was 21st in yards after contact in goal-to-go situations.

52. Turner scored 12 rushing touchdowns in 2010, 11 in 2011 and 10 in 2012.

53. Jackson has 126 receptions the past three seasons, seventh among all running backs during that time frame and more than Reggie Bush and Gore, among others.

54. Last season, the Denver Broncos ranked in the top 10 in red zone rushing attempts and red zone rushing touchdowns.

55. They also were tied for the sixth-most goal-to-go rushes.

56. Since the start of the 2011 season, Montee Ball led the FBS in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushes of 15 yards or longer. In that two-year time frame, he scored 55 rushing touchdowns.

57. Over the past three seasons, no running back in the NFL has had more offensive touches than Foster.

58. Foster's yards per carry: 4.9 in 2010, 4.4 in 2011, 4.1 last season.

59. If you took away the touchdowns from every running back last season, Foster would have finished eighth in fantasy points among running backs, averaging just one point more per game than Matt Forte.

60. Last season, Antonio Brown dropped just 2.9 percent of his targets. Only five wide receivers had as many targets as Brown and a lower drop percentage: Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin and Anquan Boldin.

61. Last season, Brown averaged just more than eight targets per game.

62. Mike Wallace is no longer a member of the Steelers.

63. As mentioned above, Johnson was tackled an NFL-most eight times inside the 5-yard line last season. In second place, among the players tied with six tackles inside the 5-yard line were White, Marques Colston and Darren Sproles.

64. Last season, Alex Smith completed 70.2 percent of his passes, the most of any player with at least 200 attempts.

65. In Dwayne Bowe's career (2007-12), Chiefs quarterbacks have completed 57.8 percent of passes, 28th in the league in that span.

66. Over the past nine seasons, Andy Reid offenses have been top-10 in the NFL in passing yards eight times.

67. From Week 1 of 2004 to Week 8 of 2005, Terrell Owens, playing for Andy Reid, was targeted 214 times, fourth-most in the NFL during that time frame.

68. Owens had an injury in Week 8 of 2005, but from Week 1 of 2004 until that injury, he also had 1,963 yards (third-best in the NFL during that time frame) and 20 touchdowns, tied for most in the NFL.

69. Owens was listed at 6-foot-3, 226 pounds.

70. Bowe is listed at 6-2, 221 pounds. He's going in the seventh round, on average, in ESPN drafts.

71. Last season, there were 71 different players who were targeted in the end zone more or the same number of times as … Andre Johnson.

72. Johnson had just six end zone targets and caught one. Among the players with more catches in the end zone than Johnson last season? Garrett Graham, Jeff Cumberland and Lee Smith.

73. Last season, playing for West Virginia, Tavon Austin was able to gain 450 of his 1,289 receiving yards (35 percent) on passes that were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage.

74. He averaged 7.4 yards per reception on those kinds of passes.

75. Over his career, on passes he threw more than 20 yards downfield, Christian Ponder hooked up with Percy Harvin for just one catch of 39 yards, which was a touchdown.

76. Ponder targeted Harvin downfield every 24.0 attempts.

77. Last season, Russell Wilson averaged one 20-yard attempt every 6.7 passes.

78. Overall, Wilson was off target on 14.4 percent of attempts, trailing only Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Rodgers.

79. Ponder ranked 18th in that category (19.5 percent).

80. Over the past five seasons, Greg Jennings ranked seventh in the NFL with 228 fantasy points accumulated on throws of at least 20 yards downfield.

81. The only qualified quarterback in the NFL without a touchdown throw at least 20 yards downfield last season was … Ponder.

82. Over the past five seasons, only the Colts attempted more passes at least 15 yards downfield (680) than Norv Turner's San Diego Chargers.

83. Josh Gordon is usually still available in the 13th round.

84. He's suspended for two games, but still. He's 6-3, 225 pounds, runs a 4.4 40-yard dash and is going in the 13th round.

85. Last season, the only player in the league to get at least three targets in the end zone and to catch them all was Randall Cobb. He was 6-for-6.

86. From Weeks 10-17, the player who caught the lowest percentage of his targets was … Larry Fitzgerald, at just 33.3 percent.

<B.87.< b="">87. Last season, Cardinals quarterbacks were sacked every 11.7 drop-backs, the worst rate in the NFL. </B.87.<>

88. Carson Palmer completed 46.9 percent of his passes under pressure in 2012, the fourth-best average in the league.

89. Cardinals quarterbacks combined for a 55 percent completion percentage and just 11 touchdown passes. They missed (over or underthrew) receivers on 23.2 percent of throws.

90. Last season, Palmer, playing with not a single wide receiver as good as Fitzgerald, completed 61.1 percent of his passes, threw for more than 4,000 yards and had 22 touchdowns.

91. Palmer also targeted Brandon Myers 105 times, the fourth-most targets for a tight end.

92. Palmer's new tight end, Rob Housler, is 6-5 and runs a 4.4 40.

93. Only two tight ends had at least 65 fantasy points from Weeks 10-17 last season: Jimmy Graham (78) and … Greg Olsen (66).

94. As our ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine notes, last season, there were 18 different tight ends who accumulated between 500 and 800 yards.

95. From 2007 to 2011, there were 18 different tight ends who had eight or more touchdowns in a season. Fifteen of them saw their touchdown total decrease the following season.

96. More on the repeatability of touchdowns from pass-catchers: Last season, there were nine different wide receivers who had at least 10 touchdowns. The list: James Jones, Eric Decker, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Colston, Demaryius Thomas, Victor Cruz and Julio Jones.

97. Per the great Jason Vida of ESPN Stats & Information, from 2002 to 2011, 70 different wide receivers had 10-touchdown seasons, and 53 of them (or 76 percent) did not have double-digit touchdowns the following season.

98. Fourteen, zero, one, zero, one, two, zero. Those are Vernon Davis' weekly fantasy-point totals in the regular season starting in Week 11, when Kaepernick took over as the starting quarterback.

99. Last season, including the postseason, Dennis Pitta scored 10 touchdowns. Five of them came in the first 13 games (or .38 per game), during which Pitta averaged 37 yards per game under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

100. Over the final seven games, with offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell calling the plays, Pitta scored five touchdowns (or .71 TD per game) and averaged 49 yards a game.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Fantasy impact of Harvin injury[/h][h=3]Projecting ramifications for Russell Wilson, Seahawks minus the star wideout[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider


The most potentially impactful personnel move this offseason may have been the Seattle Seahawks' acquisition of Percy Harvin.

Harvin's dangerous level of perimeter quickness potentially serves as a great change of pace to Marshawn Lynch's inside power rushing. He also could add much-needed intermediate-level route depth help to an offense that needed an upgrade on those types of throws (12.9 yards per attempt on medium-depth passes last year, tied for 16th).

From a fantasy perspective, this collection of skills was seen as a potential boon to quarterback Russell Wilson and explains why a quarterback who finished 11th in fantasy quarterback points last year is currently averaging a No. 8 overall quarterback draft ranking in ESPN live drafts.

Now that Harvin could be out for a while with a hip injury (he's getting a second opinion next week in New York), it has to be expected that Wilson's fantasy value will decline by enough that he should start falling back in those same draft rooms.

But a closer look at this situation shows that even if Harvin misses extended time, while damaging from a team perspective, it should not have that big of an impact on Wilson's 2013 fantasy football prospects.
<OFFER>
It all starts by noting the most likely reason Harvin was acquired: to help bring more rush/pass balance to the Seahawks' offense.
Last year, Seattle ranked at the bottom of the league in pass attempts (405) and at the top in rush attempts (536) -- the largest imbalance between these two areas. To get an idea of just how out of balance they are, consider that a change of just 50-75 rushes to pass attempts would still leave the Seahawks near the top and bottom of the two aforementioned categories -- yet would represent a big step toward balance.
A full season with Harvin would likely see him rack up somewhere in the range of 175 combined targets and rush attempts, as he posted that many when he played 16 games for the Vikings in 2011.
Let's assume that 50 of those targets/rushes would be additional offensive plays for the Seahawks (i.e. above and beyond what they posted last year). That would mean 125 other plays would have to be cannibalized from elsewhere on the Seahawks' roster.
It's going to be difficult to take many targets away from the Seahawks' receiving corps. Last year, Sidney Rice had only 80 targets, and Golden Tate (68) and Zach Miller (53) don't have much room to spare, either. It's possible most of Doug Baldwin's 49 targets would go to Harvin, but all in all there really aren't many avenues here for Harvin to get his targets.
For the sake of argument, let's say he gets 60 targets from the receivers. That leaves 65 targets/rushes for Harvin to get from the rushing game.
Those aren't likely to come from Lynch, as Seattle already does a good job of keeping Lynch at a 275-300 carry count. It's possible Harvin could get some of Robert Turbin's 80 carries, but Turbin and Christine Michael are the power inside rushers who will be used when the Seahawks want to rest Lynch, so there isn't much to be drawn from that area.


Harvin could ostensibly pick up some of the 47 rushes compiled by the Seahawks' myriad small-change rushers last year, but there are always players like that on the stat sheet so it isn't likely they would all go away.
Because it really doesn't look like Harvin could get all of the rest of his workload from these players, let's assume he'll get slightly more than half and give him 35 of their carries.
This leaves 30 rushing plays, and there is only one more area they could come from: Wilson's rushes. Wilson ran the ball 94 times last year, which was the third-highest quarterback rushing attempt total in the NFL. Seattle almost certainly will not want Wilson, the smallest starting quarterback in the league, to take the potential punishment that 94 rush attempts can bring, and thus would be happy to find a way to dramatically reduce that number.
So what is the fantasy impact if Wilson loses 30 rush attempts but ends up picking up a net of 50 pass attempts with Harvin in the lineup? Let's do the math based on Wilson's productivity from last year.
Wilson ran for 489 yards and scored 4 touchdowns on those 94 rush attempts, good for 72 fantasy points. Divide that by 94 rushes and it equals just under eight-tenths of a points-per-rush attempt (0.77). Multiply that by 30 rushes and it turns into 23 points that Harvin would cost Wilson in rushing points.
Now let's look at the potential passing gain. Wilson averaged about 0.48 fantasy points per pass attempt last year. Multiply that by 50 passes and it equals 38 points that Harvin would have gained for Wilson.
Those are rough estimates, but put them together and Harvin would have added about 15 net points to Wilson's bottom line. That's about one point per week, which is just not enough to warrant dropping Wilson's stock, especially considering that Harvin's injury status might allow him to play for a considerable amount of time this year. Seattle will adjust its offense if Harvin is out and those adjustments will find a way to feature Wilson's skills one way or another, so keep his draft stock where it is.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]The perfect fantasy first round[/h][h=3]The ideal 10 first-round picks in standard scoring drafts[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider


Fantasy football owners know there is no such thing as a perfect world, especially on draft day. Overlapping bye weeks, missed handcuffs, players with injury risk -- the list of potential draft-day roster flaws is practically limitless.

With perfection out of the question, the goal instead is to build an ideal team that has the highest percentage chance of success.

This is especially true with first-round picks. Any player in the top 10 selections of a fantasy draft is, barring injury, bound to give a team quality value. So how does one go about playing the percentages among that caliber of prospects?

Taking a metrics approach is one good way to do this. Let's take a look at what they say would be the ideal way to rank the first-round picks in a 10-team ESPN standard scoring draft.
[h=3]Pick No. 1: Adrian Peterson[/h]Strong suits: Good Blocking Yards Per Attempt (GBYPA), rush attempt volume
Potential weakness: Low Good Blocking Rate (GBR)
According to my draft guide, Peterson racked up an insanely high 11.1-yard total in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. This measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking, roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt. No qualifying back has ever posted a higher mark in that category in the eight years it has been tracked. Peterson also has a huge workload capacity, as his 399 rushes/targets last year ranked second-highest among running backs. Crazy as it sounds, there is also upside potential, as the addition of Greg Jennings should help the Vikings diversify their attack, and thus potentially improve their 39.5 percent good blocking rate (GBR) that ranked 30th in the league.

<OFFER></OFFER>

[h=3]Pick No. 2: Arian Foster[/h]Strong suits: Rush attempt volume, GBR
Potential weakness: Relatively low GBYPA
Foster is one of the few backs in the league who can match Peterson's workload (409 rushes/targets, ranked first), and he does play behind a blocking wall that was much better than Minnesota's (47.0 percent GBR, ranked 10th). He might actually rate ahead of Peterson if not for a much lower GBYPA (7.0). The recent report of Foster having a strained right calf also adds a slight amount of risk to his pick.

[h=3]Pick No. 3: Jamaal Charles[/h]Strong suits: GBYPA, GBR
Potential weakness: Possible workload ceiling
Charles may have landed in the most ideal situation in Kansas City. He was already one of the most explosive running backs (9.3 GBYPA, tied for fourth), and new coach Andy Reid's pass-first offense will make the most of Charles' receiving ability. Having a dominant offensive blocking wall is a big plus (47.6 percent GBR, ranked ninth), and that blocking may get even better with the addition of first-round draft pick Eric Fisher. Charles also will be a prime beneficiary of the pistol elements that new offensive assistant Chris Ault will bring to the Chiefs' playbook. The only potential negative is the fact that Charles has posted just one season of 300 or more rushes/targets in his five-year NFL career.

[h=3]Pick No. 4: Doug Martin[/h]Strong suits: Rush attempt volume, GBYPA, schedule
Potential weakness: Needs more high-end point consistency
Martin's 5-foot-9, 215-pound frame belies his bell cow durability. Foster and Peterson were the only two backs to post higher rushes/targets total than Martin (390). This usage level did not negatively impact Martin, as his 9.3 GBYPA ranked tied for fourth-best in that category. Martin did all of this despite receiving good blocking on only 37.0 percent of his rushing plays (third-worst). That should change for the better because Tampa Bay will return two offensive guards who missed a combined 25 games last season. He also should benefit from a schedule that ranks as the most favorable in the league from a rushing defense perspective.

Martin's major weak point was averaging only 11.8 points per game if the 83 composite fantasy points he scored in Weeks 8 and 9 last season are taken out of the equation. He doesn't have to post games that match the huge point totals posted in the anomalous contests, but he needs to get in the ballpark on occasion.


[h=3]Pick No. 5: Marshawn Lynch[/h]Strong suits: Rush attempt volume, GBYPA
Potential weaknesses: Mediocre GBR, offensive play-calling adjustment

Lynch isn't quite in the Foster/Peterson/Martin category when it comes to workload, but his 345 rushes/targets total ranked fifth in the league. It was the second year in a row he topped the 300-mark in that category. His 8.5 GBYPA ranked sixth among backs with at least 100 good blocking rush attempts.

The main issues holding Lynch back are a middling GBR (44.7 percent, tied for 17th), and the possibility that this offense will swing toward becoming more balanced. The latter may not be a major problem, as a recent Insider article detailed how even with the addition of Percy Harvin, those changes are more likely to impact Russell Wilson than Lynch.

[h=3]Pick No. 6: C.J. Spiller[/h]Strong suits: GBYPA, GBR
Potential weakness: Will he be a bell cow?

The combination of rushing behind the best run blocking wall in the NFL (52.2 percent GBR), a 9.1 GBYPA (ranked sixth) and 56 targets helped Spiller to place seventh in running back fantasy points last season, despite tallying only 207 rushing attempts. New coach Doug Marrone is known for his passing play-calling prowess, but he has a long background as an offensive line coach, and he won't hesitate to lean on the ground attack. The only question is, will he turn the Bills' backfield from a lead-alternate approach with Spiller as the lead, to more of a bell cow approach? The prediction here is it will be the latter, and that leads to Spiller's rank on this list.

[h=3]Pick No. 7: Alfred Morris[/h]Strong suits: Rush attempt volume, GBR
Potential weakness: Low target volume

Mike Shanahan reminded us last season that he isn't averse to leaning on a bell cow. Morris had 351 combined rushes/targets, a total that ranked fourth in that category, and he was quite productive when given good blocking (8.3 GBYPA, ranked 11th). Washington's run blocking was top-10 caliber last season (48.4 percent GBR, ranked seventh) and could be even better this year if that group stays healthy.

The main impediment for Morris is he had only 16 targets. He doesn't add much value to PPR leagues. He won't offer much value in the event the Redskins fall behind and have to play catch-up offense.

[h=3]Pick No. 8: Ray Rice[/h]Strong suits: Pass-receiving volume, GBR
Potential weaknesses: Low GBYPA, possible workload reduction, tough schedule

The 2012 season was Rice's fourth straight as a bell cow. His 341 rushes/targets ranked sixth in that category. Darren Sproles was the only back to post more targets than Rice (84), so there is huge PPR upside here. The Ravens had the eighth-best run-blocking wall (48.0 percent GBR) last season, despite dealing with some personnel movement up front, so a repeat of this figure looks possible.

Rice's main negative is a relatively low GBYPA (7.2), a number that stands in stark contrast to his backup, Bernard Pierce (9.7), and potentially could lead to more carries for Pierce. The Ravens also have a schedule that is tied for third-toughest from a run-defense perspective.

[h=3]Pick No. 9: LeSean McCoy[/h]Strong suits: Workload, GBYPA, high target volume
Potential weaknesses: GBYPA, split carries

Pro-rate McCoy's usage level last season to a 16-game schedule, and he would have posted 356 rushes/targets. New coach Chip Kelly has a history of giving his lead ball carrier as much work as he can handle, so that leans in McCoy's favor. McCoy's low GBYPA (7.2) was much lower than his historic showings of eight yards or more in that category, so a turnaround here is quite possible.

The factor holding McCoy back from a higher ranking is Kelly also has shown he will share the backfield workload if there is a strong backup running back. Bryce Brown's 9.8 GBYPA ranked second in the league and indicates he fits that description.

[h=3]Pick No. 10: Trent Richardson[/h]Strong suits: Workload, consistency, pass-receiving volume
Potential weaknesses: GBYPA, GBR, schedule

Richardson answered NFL draft day questions about his durability by ranking sixth in rushes/targets (337). Despite playing on a subpar Cleveland offense, Richardson was quite consistent last season, posting 11 double-digit fantasy point games, including seven in a row at one point. The 70 targets directed his way (ranked fifth among running backs) are a big part of his value.

The biggest concerns for Richardson are a very low GBYPA (6.4), the Browns' run-of-the-mill GBR (45.4 percent GBR, ranked 15th) and a run defense schedule that rates as the toughest in the league. They keep him from rating higher on this list, but don't prevent him from closing out the top 10 of the ideal first round in a 2013 fantasy football draft.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Mock Draft Monday takeaways[/h][h=3]Players selected in multiple drafts offer value potential[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Monday, July 29 saw ESPN fantasy embark on a bold mission: a day filled with fantasy football mock drafts. Eighteen ESPN experts held 54 mocks, and the resultant social-media buzz led the phrase #MockDraftMonday to trend on Twitter.

I partook in eight drafts and had a blast. All my drafts were of the 12-team variety; one of the eight was a two-QB league, and they all featured standard scoring. As such, I made 129 draft picks. However, I selected only 76 different players (including kickers and defenses). As I did draft after draft, I found several players popping up on my radar multiple times. And that's why I'm writing today: to give perspective at the end of July on where I think some value rests in fantasy drafts.

Now, this methodology isn't perfect. In three drafts, I had the No. 1 overall pick, and each time I took Adrian Peterson. That means I like Adrian Peterson. Duh. If I could have taken him eight times, I would have. But I picked second once, fourth once, seventh once, 10th once and 12th once. So especially in the first round my hands were often tied, thus analyzing the early-round picks I made isn't going to tell us that much. But later? That exercise will reveal some places where I think value can be found, a month before the season.

Players I selected four times

Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF (average position I drafted him: 57th overall)
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN (114th)
Martellus Bennett, TE, CHI (130th)
Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR (134th)
Rueben Randle, WR, NYG (134th)
Vincent Brown, WR, SD (138th)

Most Interesting: In our ESPN group rankings, Kaepernick comes in as the No. 7 QB and No. 46 overall, and in my ranks, he's the No. 6 QB and No. 37 overall. My usual strategy on a QB is to wait, wait and then wait more, but by lasting on average until the 57th pick in drafts where I selected him, Kaepernick presented value too good to pass up. I got him late in the fifth round of several drafts, and at that price, I was biting.


Others: This must mean I believe Hillman will win the starting Denver Broncos RB gig, right? Wrong. As you'll see in a moment, I like Montee Ball more than Hillman. But just in case I'm wrong, I drafted Hillman too. … I certainly have no love for Stewart and his bad ankle, but as a 12th-round pick, I'll grab a guy who started his career with two 10-TD seasons and is 26 years old. I can always drop him. … I think Bennett is underrated as the group-ranked No. 12 TE; he's No. 7 on my list. Whenever I waited for a tight end, he was my guy. … I like late-round lottery-ticket WRs like Randle (second year) and Brown (third year) more than I do rookies.

Players I selected three times

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN (1st)
Frank Gore, RB, SF (22nd)
Montee Ball, RB, DEN (28th)
Joseph Randle, RB, DAL (121st)
Zac Stacy, RB, STL (148th)
Aaron Dobson (156th)

Most Interesting: Time and again as the RBs dwindled, I eyed Ball. A couple of times he went right before my pick. Three times I got him, on average early in the third round. Ball is No. 16 on my RB list and No. 30 overall, compared to No. 19 on the group RB list and No. 37 overall. That slight difference -- and the fact that I could tell many of the mock drafters I was competing against are mighty skeptical of Ball -- led me to draft him regularly. I'm on record: When push comes to shove, I believe Ball wins most of the early-down work and almost all the short-yardage work for a very good Broncos offense.

Others: I also apparently like Gore more than many drafters. My picking him was questioned at least a few times. What can I say? The guy finished 10th among fantasy RBs last year and has played 16 games in back-to-back seasons. It might be more the O-line than the player, but I'll take it. … I'm unconvinced that Randle is DeMarco Murray's handcuff. Lance Dunbar has gotten good pub in camp, but I didn't draft Murray at all. Taking Randle was simply a bet that Murray gets hurt and Randle gets part of the job. … I don't know anything you don't know about Stacy. He's a squat, powerful guy without great speed, but he's a tough, balanced runner. I'll take a chance he earns part of a committee with my 13th-rounder. … Tom Brady has famously never made a rookie into a good fantasy WR, but with such a late-round pick, I'm willing to take a shot with Dobson.
Players I selected twice

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI (9th)
Vincent Jackson, WR, TB (29th)
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU (39th)
Jordy Nelson, WR, GB (48th)
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND (50th)
Eddie Lacy, RB, GB (65th)
Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN (75th)
Cecil Shorts, WR, JAC (76th)
Shane Vereen, RB, NE (77th)
Johnathan Franklin, RB, GB (90th)
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI (96th)
Bryce Brown, RB, PHI (98th)
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI (120th)

Most Interesting: I'm not sure we can draw a ton of conclusions about picking a guy twice in eight drafts, other than I don't hate that guy's value. But McCoy is the player with whom I wound up both times I picked toward the back part of the top 10. I believe he's a clear first-round pick, even in 10-team drafts; he's my No. 8 RB and No. 8 player overall, compared to the group ranks that have him No. 10 among RBs and No. 11 overall. It's a small distinction, but enough to make me target Shady if I'm near the back end. If someone picks Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris or Calvin Johnson, I'm ready to take McCoy. I think his workload this year is going to be massive.

Others: At this point, I'm really just establishing a few guys I like as lottery-ticket RBs and WRs. I can't promise you any of these players will blow up in 2013, but they have a chance. As you can see, I'm emphasizing young players here, often choosing talent over situation.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Will the real Stafford please stand up?[/h][h=3]After a monster 2011, Lions' QB saw TD total drop considerably in 2012[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Which is the real Matthew Stafford: 2011 or 2012?

Matthew Stafford's 2013 fantasy value is up for debate heading into the season. Some people accepted early in his career that he would eventually join the elite level of fantasy quarterbacks, and when he achieved that level for the 2011 season, they became willing to overlook the negative data points that reared their ugly head last season. Some people point to things like Calvin Johnson getting tackled six times inside the opponent's 2-yard line last year, or Stafford setting an NFL passing record with 727 attempts, to say there's no cause for concern. The fact of the matter is that, despite that record number of attempts, his fantasy point total regressed significantly and we should really try to identify what caused that regression and whether it's likely to continue.

Let's start with the easiest statistic to measure: completion percentage. During his first two NFL seasons, Stafford had a 54.5 percent completion rate. In 2011, when he rose to the elite level, that rate skyrocketed to a 63.5 percent. Last season, it fell to 59.8 percent, which is now equal to his career rate. With the addition of Reggie Bush, it's safe to expect that the number of pass attempts Stafford tries to his running backs will increase from the 124 he had last season. Since Stafford has completed better than 73 percent of his career pass attempts to running backs, Bush's addition -- meaning more passes to running backs -- likely means an overall increase in completion percentage.


Next, let's see how effective Stafford is in the most important area on the field, the red zone. Last season, Stafford completed just 47 percent of his pass attempts in that area. That ranked him 26th in the NFL, behind such luminaries as Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel. For comparison, the top 10 in this category averaged a completion rate of 61.3 percent. Furthermore, those top 10 converted almost 31 percent of their red zone attempts into touchdowns, where Stafford converted at only an 18 percent clip. Finally, those 10 quarterbacks threw interceptions on less than 2 percent of their red zone attempts, while Stafford hovered close to 5 percent.

All of that sounds incredibly negative until you realize that, historically, this had been an area where Stafford excelled. In 2010 and 2011 combined, Stafford completed almost 52 percent of his red zone pass attempts for 35 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Since Stafford played only three games in 2010, that means he averaged almost two touchdowns per game in this area during those two seasons. For comparison, Tom Brady has averaged just over 1.5 touchdowns per game in the red zone over the past four years.

Another area for concern might be how Stafford played with the lead last season. Most fans are aware that the elite fantasy quarterbacks pile on when their team is ahead. Stafford didn't get those opportunities last season. He attempted just 117 passes while the Lions were winning, completing just 54.7 percent, with only two of them going for touchdowns. Amazingly, he was picked off seven times during those attempts. This was a dramatic turn from 2011, when he completed almost 70 percent of his throws while the Lions were winning and had 12 touchdowns and no interceptions on those throws. Look for some regression to the mean, which would be a positive development for Stafford's numbers.

Before crunching these splits, I was of the opinion that any player who had reduced fantasy production during a year when their overall opportunity increased was simply a bad play. I am very glad I delved deeper into Stafford's performance. Based on his previous three years, I find it very likely that his completion percentage and red zone efficiency will return to their previous levels of production.

Those improvements will yield significant fantasy benefits. Each percent of improvement in completion rate will yield approximately an additional 80 passing yards. His red zone efficiency should return close to his prior levels, which would have resulted in approximately an additional 16 passing touchdowns. With an increase to 62 percent passing completion and those red zone scores, Stafford would have totaled about 344 fantasy points in 2012, which would have placed him as the highest scoring fantasy quarterback.

I'm willing to bet on Stafford returning to the elite level of fantasy quarterbacks again, which means I see the 2011 version of Stafford as real. The skills and opportunity are there, and if his production reverts to his previous levels, securing Stafford in the middle rounds of your draft is an absolute steal. The best part of Stafford is that you have likely seen the bottom of his value in his 2012 performance, and you can secure his rights this year based on that low point. Best of all, it's highly unlikely that you'd have to reach for him, as his average draft position at this time places him as a seventh-round selection in 10-team leagues. When you consider that Colin Kaepernick's and Russell Wilson's primary receiving threats both have significant injury concerns, I find Stafford a much safer play. Bottom line, if you are one of those owners who prefers to watch others draft the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, your best option is waiting to snag Stafford. You will be handsomely rewarded.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Best fantasy bye-week subs[/h][h=3]When your stars sit, these subs will shine for your team[/h]
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER

In the whirlwind of a fantasy football draft, it's easy to lose track of the bigger picture and focus only on the pick at hand. In a rush to accumulate the best players available, not only can owners end up with an imbalanced roster but they can also completely ignore bye weeks. This can lead to a near-forfeiture of a week if too many quality players are off at the same time. Or, almost as bad, you're left roaming the waiver wire for scraps to replace your benched talent. Instead, a little advance planning -- and some help from our projections -- can optimize your lineup even when it's at its weakest.

Below, we've highlighted some of the best players available during every bye week in the 2013 NFL season. These are players who don't figure to be fantasy starters for most leagues but will provide maximum value in a substitute role. Be sure to check out the tables at the end for additional recommendations at each offensive position for each week.

[h=3]Week 4: Bernard Pierce vs. Buffalo Bills[/h]
In 2012, the Bills ranked second in fantasy points given up to running backs. They also had a nasty habit of giving up big games to the second running back in a committee. The biggest game was in Week 4, when Brandon Bolden of the Patriots had 137 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. With Bolden out in Week 10, it was Danny Woodhead instead, and he had a combined 61 rushing and receiving yards with two touchdowns. The Bills also gave up 73 yards to Lamar Miller in Week 16 and 56 yards to Bilal Powell in Week 17.

<OFFER></OFFER>

[h=3]Week 5: Jay Cutler vs. New Orleans Saints[/h]
The Saints gave up an average of 19.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the worst figure in the league. Keenan Lewis should bring some improvement to the pass defense, but that should be offset when the return of Sean Payton boosts the Saints' offense, which in turn will force opponents to pass more to catch up to Drew Brees. Cutler also makes a good matchup here because no team likes to throw to its No. 1 receiver as much as Chicago does. And when we say no team, we mean no team in the past two decades. Marshall was targeted on 40.2 percent of Chicago passes last year. No other receiver since at least 1991 has been higher than 36 percent. The Saints, meanwhile, allowed a league-high 98.6 yards per game to opposing No. 1 receivers in 2012 (including pass interference yards).

[h=3]Week 6: Shane Vereen vs. New Orleans Saints[/h]
Guess what? The Saints weren't just the worst fantasy defense in the league against quarterbacks. They also were the worst fantasy defense in the league against running backs, giving up an average of 22.4 fantasy points per game. That makes this a good matchup week for Vereen, especially because he probably will be racking up points not only on the ground but also through the air. The Patriots are planning to use Vereen split wide to help make up for the loss of Aaron Hernandez.

[h=3]Week 7: Martellus Bennett at Washington Redskins[/h]
Washington was the worst defense last year against tight ends, giving up a league-high 66.3 yards per game. Tight ends also scored 10 touchdowns against the Redskins. Because he was on the Giants last year, Bennett played Washington twice; he had 79 yards in Week 7, then 82 yards and a touchdown in Week 12.

[h=3]Week 8: Eli Manning at Philadelphia Eagles[/h]
It might seem odd to consider Eli Manning on a list of good backups for bye weeks, but he's currently the 13th quarterback off the board in the average ESPN.com draft -- making him a backup in any 10- or 12-team league. The Philadelphia pass defense can't possibly be as much of a mess as it was a year ago, but it isn't like to improve dramatically, and Manning combined for 517 yards, 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception in two games against the Eagles a year ago.

[h=3]Week 9: Miles Austin vs. Minnesota Vikings[/h]
Not only were the Vikings a below-average fantasy defense against wide receivers last year but they lost their best cornerback, Antoine Winfield, in the offseason. And they were particularly weak against the other team's No. 2 receiver, allowing 59.7 yards per game with eight total touchdowns and, most incredibly, a 71 percent catch rate. No other defense allowed No. 2 receivers a catch rate above 65 percent. So, while the Vikings are busy trying to stop Dez Bryant from going nuts on them, Tony Romo should be able to find Austin often, leading to a nice fantasy afternoon.

[h=3]Week 10: Cecil Shorts or Justin Blackmon vs. Tennessee Titans[/h]
You would have to be in a really, really deep and obsessive fantasy football league to even consider starting a Jacksonville wide receiver on a regular basis. But even the Jaguars' receivers make a good play with a good matchup, which they have against Tennessee. Shorts played only one of Jacksonville's two games with Tennessee last year, but he caught four passes for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Titans in Week 12. Blackmon had 62 yards and a touchdown in that game, then another 79 yards and a touchdown in the rematch Week 17.

[h=3]Week 11: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Detroit Lions[/h]
Last year, Detroit gave an average of 63.4 yards per game to the opponent's No. 2 receiver, including pass interference yards. That was the second-highest average in the league, and Detroit was one of only three teams that gave up more yards to No. 2 receivers than to No. 1 receivers. Chris Houston is underrated as Detroit's top cornerback, but the second corner is going to be either rookie Darius Slay or second-year man Bill Bentley.

[h=3]Week 12: Philip Rivers at Kansas City Chiefs[/h]
The Chiefs gave up 17.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last year. Obviously, they hope that adding players such as Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson will help them crack down on the pass, but they're still unlikely to be one of the league's best pass defenses. In particular, last year, they had a problem with deep passes. They were sixth in the NFL giving up 36 passes of 25-plus yards, even though they were dead last in how often opponents threw the ball. That makes a particularly good matchup for Rivers, especially if deep threat Danario Alexander hasn't broken down by this point. Rivers had 429 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions last year in two games against Kansas City. That's not spectacular, but it's useful, and Rivers has been very consistent against the Chiefs, with at least 200 passing yards in every game against them since 2008.

[h=3]Best Bye-Week Replacements[/h]

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top Bye-Week Choices: Quarterbacks[/h]Players with good matchups during Weeks 4-12

Week	Teams on bye	Recommendations
4	Packers, Panthers	Jay Cutler (at DET), Joe Flacco (at BUF), Eli Manning (at KC), Ryan Tannehill (at NO)
5	Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins	Jay Cutler (vs. NO), Jake Locker (vs. KC), Philip Rivers (at OAK), Alex Smith (at TEN)
6	Falcons, Dolphins	Josh Freeman (vs. PHI), Philip Rivers (vs. IND), Alex Smith (vs. OAK)
7	Raiders, Saints	Andy Dalton (at DET), Eli Manning (vs. MIN), Matt Schaub (at KC), Michael Vick (vs. DAL)
8	Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Texans	Eli Manning (at PHI), Ben Roethlisberger (at OAK), Alex Smith (vs. CLE), Brandon Weeden (at KC)
9	Broncos, Lions, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers, Jaguars	Sam Bradford (vs. TEN), Joe Flacco (at CLE), Matt Schaub (vs. IND), Michael Vick (at OAK)
10	Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Jets	Sam Bradford (at IND), Jay Cutler (vs. DET), Eli Manning (vs. OAK)
11	Cowboys, Rams	Andy Dalton (vs. CLE), Matt Schaub (vs. OAK), Ryan Tannehill (vs. SD)
12	Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Seahawks	Jay Cutler (at TEN), Jake Locker (at OAK), Philip Rivers (at KC)

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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Top Bye-Week Choices: Running backs[/h]Players with good matchups during Weeks 4-12

Week	Teams on bye	Recommendations
4	Packers, Panthers	Vick Ballard (vs. JAC), Andre Brown (at KC), Bernard Pierce (vs. BUF)
5	Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins	Ryan Mathews (at OAK), Daryl Richardson/Zac Stacy/Isaiah Pead (vs. JAC), Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams (at ARI)
6	Falcons, Dolphins	Giovani Bernard/BenJarvus Green-Ellis (at BUF), Ryan Mathews (vs. IND), Shane Vereen (vs NO)
7	Raiders, Saints	Johnathan Franklin/Eddie Lacy (vs. CLE), Kendall Hunter (at TEN), Ryan Mathews (at JAC), Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams (vs. STL)
8	Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Texans	Kendall Hunter (at JAC), Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas (vs. BUF), Fred Jackson (at NO), Jacquizz Rodgers (at ARI)
9	Broncos, Lions, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers, Jaguars	Bryce Brown (at OAK), Fred Jackson (vs. KC), Daryl Richardson/Zac Stacy/Isaiah Pead (vs. TEN)
10	Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Jets	Andre Brown (vs. PHI), Joseph Randle (at NO), Daryl Richardson/Zac Stacy/Isaiah Pead (at IND), Ben Tate (at ARI)
11	Cowboys, Rams	Vick Ballard (at TEN), Kendall Hunter (at NO), Rashard Mendenhall (at JAC), Ben Tate (vs. OAK)
12	Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Seahawks	Vick Ballard (at ARI), Jacquizz Rodgers (vs. NO), Ben Tate (vs. JAC)

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<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Top Bye-Week Choices: Wide Receivers[/h]Players with good matchups during Weeks 4-12

Week	Teams on bye	Recommendations
4	Packers, Panthers	Brian Hartline (at NO), Darrius Heyward-Bey (at JAC), Emmanuel Sanders (at MIN), Cecil Shorts (vs. IND), Mike Williams (vs. ARI)
5	Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins	Denarius Moore (vs. SD), Rueben Randle (vs. PHI), Sidney Rice (at IND), Mohamed Sanu (vs. NE)
6	Falcons, Dolphins	Danario Alexander (vs. IND), Miles Austin (vs. WAS), Josh Gordon (vs. DET), Lance Moore (at NE), Sidney Rice (vs. TEN)
7	Raiders, Saints	Danario Alexander (at JAC), Anquan Boldin (at TEN), Santonio Holmes (vs. NE), Rueben Randle (vs. MIN), Mohamed Sanu (at DET)
8	Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Texans	Anquan Boldin (at JAC), Aaron Dobson/Julian Edelman (vs. MIA), T.J. Graham/Robert Woods (at NO), Brian Hartline (at NE)
9	Broncos, Lions, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers, Jaguars	Danario Alexander (at WAS), Miles Austin (vs. MIN), Santonio Holmes (at NO), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. IND), Denarius Moore (vs. PHI)
10	Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Jets	Miles Austin (at NO), Kenny Britt/Kendall Wright (vs. JAC), DeAndre Hopkins (at ARI), Justin Blackmon/Cecil Shorts (at TEN)
11	Cowboys, Rams	Anquan Boldin (at NO), Kenny Britt/Kendall Wright (vs. IND), Emmanuel Sanders (vs. DET)
12	Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Seahawks	Anquan Boldin (at WAS), Michael Floyd (vs. IND), Denarius Moore (vs. TEN), Emmanuel Sanders (at CLE)

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<!-- end inline 3 --><!-- begin inline 4 -->[h=4]Top Bye-Week Choices: Tight ends[/h]Players with good matchups during Weeks 4-12

Week	Teams on bye	Recommendations
4	Packers, Panthers	James Casey/Brent Celek (at DEN), Dustin Keller (at NO), Marcedes Lewis (vs. IND)
5	Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins	Martellus Bennett (vs. NO), Tyler Eifert/Jermaine Gresham (vs. NE), Zach Miller (at IND), Jacob Tamme (at DAL)
6	Falcons, Dolphins	Jake Ballard (vs. NO), Fred Davis (at DAL), Marcedes Lewis (at DEN)
7	Raiders, Saints	Martellus Bennett (at WAS), James Casey/Brent Celek (vs. DAL), Jacob Tamme (at IND)
8	Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Texans	Jake Ballard (vs. MIA), Scott Chandler (at NO), Dustin Keller (at NE), Brandon Pettigrew (vs. DAL), Jacob Tamme (vs. WAS)
9	Broncos, Lions, Giants, Cardinals, 49ers, Jaguars	Jake Ballard (vs. PIT), Owen Daniels (vs. IND), Heath Miller (at NE)
10	Browns, Chiefs, Patriots, Jets	Fred Davis (at MIN), Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (vs. STL), Marcedes Lewis (vs. TEN)
11	Cowboys, Rams	James Casey/Brent Celek (vs. WAS), Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen (vs. TEN), Greg Olsen (vs. NE)
12	Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Seahawks	Martellus Bennett (at STL), Brandon Myers (vs. DAL), Jacob Tamme (at NE)

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[HacheMan]

[h=1]Could Doug Martin disappoint in '13?[/h][h=3]After tremendous rookie season, expectations have him among top five backs[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Is there a chance that Doug Martin could disappoint in his second season?

On average, Doug Martin was the 65th player selected in ESPN fantasy football drafts last year. That made him the 25th running back taken. As it turns out, that was a little low.

Martin had a tremendous rookie season, finishing fifth in rushing yards, tied for fifth in rushing TDs, fifth in receiving yards among RBs and fourth in targets among backs. In Value-Based Drafting terms, Martin tied Arian Foster as the second-most valuable player in fantasy football. You can make the argument that Alfred Morris' freshman campaign was more unexpected, but Martin's was better.

Here's the profile I wrote for Martin heading into 2012: "The Muscle Hamster is a strong all-around player; unlike LeGarrette Blount, he's an accomplished blocker and pass-catcher, and he has some wiggle to his game. ... It's ambitious to say Martin is instantly a fantasy starter, because the behemoth [LeGarrette] Blount will still be in the mix. But Martin has potential."

I'll say. His all-around game was on display immediately. On the first drive of his pro career, against the Carolina Panthers, he made a fallaway diving catch on a ball Josh Freeman never should have thrown (Martin was covered) and, in total, accounted for 39 yards using sharp cuts and power. By Week 6, his numbers didn't look great, but I went on the Fantasy Underground podcast and sang his praises. He just popped on film. And Martin proceeded to go ballistic from that point forward.

I'm an ardent admirer of Martin at his best. He has wiggle, is already among the more decisive runners in the NFL and couples breakaway speed with 220 pounds of thickness. Watch any of his highlights from 2012 and you'll understand why Martin is generating so much buzz for '13. In ESPN's group ranks and in my personal ranks, he's the No. 5 RB. And I've heard from readers who think he should be even higher than that.

It's rare for such a young, relatively unproven player to generate such universal love. It's also rare for such players to pan out. Here are the highest-drafted first- or second-year players the past eight years in fantasy:

[h=3]ADP vs. Final VBD Rank, Since 2005[/h]

Year	Player	ADP	VBD Rank
2012	DeMarco Murray	18	58
2011	Dez Bryant	37	58
2010	Shonn Greene	21	92
2009	Matt Forte	5	43
2008	Marshawn Lynch	12	27
2007	Joseph Addai	7	6
2006	Cadillac Williams	11	NR
2005	Kevin Jones	10	77

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To say the least, this is a sobering list. Only Addai lived up to his ADP; every other "best young player available" busted. Of course, this isn't a completely fair comparison. Martin is already coming off a season in which he was a clear top-five fantasy performer; Murray, Bryant and Greene all played like fantasy bench players the year before their supposed breakouts-to-be, and Lynch, Williams and Jones were all coming off rookie years that were good but not fantasy magic. The truly apt comparisons are Forte and Addai. Forte finished fifth in VBD as a rookie, and Addai finished No. 11. Although Addai responded with an even better sophomore campaign, Forte did not.


In general, Forte is a pretty great comparable for Martin. Forte is a few inches taller, but they weigh the same, are both good receivers, are solid in pass protection and can play in any down-and-distance situation. In 2008, Forte produced 1,715 total yards and 12 total TDs (Martin had 1,926 and 12 last year). Yet Forte slogged through an uninspiring '09: 1,400 total yards and four TDs. He was supposed to be every bit as bulletproof as Martin is today. Instead, he battled an MCL sprain and, although he played the full 16 games, wasn't at full strength.

Could things go similarly wrong for Martin? Yes. Here's how:

Big play overreliance: Last year, Martin scored one-third of his fantasy points in two games: Week 8 against the Minnesota Vikings and Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders. A pessimist would point out that, if you take away his four breakaway runs in those two games -- which resulted in 223 yards -- Martin would have finished ninth in rushing yards, one spot behind Chris Johnson. As the lesson of CJ1K himself points out, when you live by the big play, you often die by the big play. If Martin becomes even more of a feast-or-famine player in '13, his fantasy owners will suffer.

Injury bounce back: Naturally, any NFL running back can get hurt. But with players such as Adrian Peterson, Foster, Ray Rice et al., we've seen multiple seasons' worth of toughness. We've seen them shake off the inevitable sprains and strains, and we know they've produced when they haven't always been at their healthiest. Do we know how Martin will react to having to play hurt? I'm not impugning the man's toughness; in fact, he's an admirably powerful and vicious runner when he has to be. But if you're asking me which RBs I feel can safely perform sub-100 percent, I'll take the veterans.

Short-yardage issues: An area I noticed on film where Martin sometimes struggled in '12 was close to an opponent's goal line. On 13 attempts inside an opponent's 3, Martin scored four times and gained zero or fewer yards five times. Again, the Forte comparison is apt: In his career, Forte is a dreadful 9-of-40 converting TDs from inside an opponent's 3, with zero or negative yards an incredible 24 times. I think low-to-the-ground Martin will wind up being better in this area than 6-foot-1 Forte, and perhaps the return of guards Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph will be the tonic he needs. Still, when you have to rely on long TDs, you can get burned.

Josh Freeman: There's a not-insignificant chance that Freeman could continue the downward spiral that saw him fade hard in December. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted Mike Glennon this spring, and Freeman is entering a contract year. Speculation has been rampant that Freeman will have a short leash if his trademark mental mistakes and inconsistent mechanics rear their head again. And if Freeman goes sour, the offense could go sour. If the offense goes sour, Martin could get swept up in the mess.

Do I think Martin is doomed to suffer a sophomore slump? I most certainly don't. That's why I've ranked him No. 5 overall. Anyone who heard me talk about the Muscle Hamster last year knows how much I think of him. But if you have any question about why I don't have Martin higher than No. 5, I hope I've answered it. Peterson, Foster, Rice and Marshawn Lynch have all earned their higher ranks by doing it for a longer period and in more varied circumstances. As such, despite his admirable talent, Martin comes with more potential downside than these other RBs. As safe as some seem to want to paint Martin, he's absolutely not risk-free.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Montee Ball's fantasy value[/h][h=3]Why the second-round pick will be the starter and where he should be drafted[/h]
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider


Late last season, reliability issues as a pass protector and a light frame kept Ronnie Hillman from stepping up in Willis McGahee's absence to become the Denver Broncos' bell cow running back.
Instead, it was former first-round pick Knowshon Moreno (who earlier in the season had been relegated to a scout team back) who toted the heavy load, providing sufficient production in late-season starts.
The fact that Hillman was unable to take carries from Moreno was an indication of his readiness (or lack thereof) to step into a featured role.
The Broncos invested a second-round pick on Montee Ball in this year's draft, a strong suggestion that he -- not Hillman -- would replace departed McGahee (who remains unsigned).
But early training camp buzz suggests that Hillman is making a push to assume the starting role in Denver, as he has taken an abundance of first-team reps thus far.
I'm not buying it.
Hillman is a talent, there's little denying that, but he's a talent best used in smaller doses, especially as he struggles to keep weight on his frame and lacks the requisite power to sustain the physical pounding of 250-plus touches.

Consider this: Of Hillman's 120 touches in 2012, 65 of them went for three or fewer yards (according to ESPN Stats & Information), and 29 of his 107 carries were for no gain or negative yardage.
Not what you're looking for in your lead ball carrier.
Ball, in comparison, is a zero-flash, downhill runner whose college tread and modest speed (4.66) led some draft analysts to shy away from him as an early-round prospect.
But, in selecting Ball with the 58th overall pick, the Broncos suggested that they believe in him to be a starter, likely immediately.
It's a projection, but count me among those who believe not only that Ball will be the starter in Week 1 for Denver but that he'll also be a workhorse, just as he was at Wisconsin. Among the areas in which he edges out Hillman: pass protection skills and reliability, two pillars for any running back playing behind Peyton Manning.
Although fantasy owners love the idea of drafting nearly any player who is slated to be a workhorse back on a topflight offense, we must set expectations for Ball, both in 2013 and beyond.


He won't win you a week with a single, home-run-hitting dash, but Ball will churn out yards through good vision, power and a sturdy frame of some 215 pounds. The Broncos' passing attack will keep defenses in their sub packages most of the time, affording Manning and his unit favorable run looks on a regular basis.
Ball has experience playing in a zone-blocking scheme (some of which he'll run behind in Denver), and the Broncos don't have a superior option for goal-line carries to steal touchdowns from Ball (who tied an NCAA record with 39 scores in his junior season at Wisconsin).
Although he earned his accolades for his work on the ground as a Badger, Ball can catch passes, too. He had 24 catches in his junior season, when he played alongside Russell Wilson (the two made for a scintillating duo). Denver won't just rely on Ball to run; the Broncos also will throw his way.
Ball cracked the top 20 in our ESPN.com fantasy running back rankings, albeit narrowly at No. 19. That's fair, given the unknown involved for any rookie, but how about a ceiling?
Think Joseph Addai, circa 2006-07. Addai averaged just under 1,100 yards and 9.5 touchdowns those two seasons, a sufficient ceiling for Ball. Factor in his catches and Ball has top-15 running back potential, at least for 2013.
But for those with a long-range scope building for your dynasty leagues, what do Ball's nearly 1,000 college touches mean for his distant outlook?
A sampling of NFL backs with at least 800 carries in their college career (since 2000) shows that extensive use before their professional debut isn't necessarily a deterrent to success.
Ray Rice (910), Michael Turner (940), Matt Forte (833), DeAngelo Williams (969) and Darren Sproles (815) are among the members of the 800-plus carry club who have gone on to successful NFL careers.
Turner was aided by the fact that he was a backup for the first four seasons of his career, but, when he eventually assumed a starting role in Atlanta, he became among the top fantasy backs for several seasons. Williams has been up and down in a crowded Carolina backfield, but a Week 17 performance to close out last season has some believing in the 30-year-old for 2013. Forte and Sproles are starting backs, with each being particularly valuable in PPR formats. Rice, meanwhile, has become a perennial top-five pick.
For each Rice, Turner et al., however, there is a Kevin Smith, whose struggles to stay healthy prevented him from sustaining the modest success he found early in his career with Detroit. Same goes for Mike Hart (a 2008 sixth-rounder of the Colts) and Javon Ringer, all of whom surpassed 800 carries in their standout college careers.
Our sampling suggests that there isn't predictive validity directly tied to a benchmark number of carries for a player during college. Some have panned out to sustain success; others have flamed out after short or inglorious careers. (It's worth noting that members of the 800-carry club who were drafted in the top two rounds since 2000 have all experienced success in the NFL.)
So, back to expectations. Factoring in the notion that Ball's college workload neither predicts him to have nor precludes him from having NFL success, his long-range outlook is about your belief in his skill set.
Ball might not have the upside of Gio Bernard or Marcus Lattimore, but, outside of those two, there's not a running back in this rookie class I'm more confident in investing in for dynasty leagues. With Manning under contract for four more seasons, assuming he can stay healthy, the Denver offense figures to feature the same system for at least that long -- a benefit to Ball owners now and down the line.
The talk might linger through camp that Hillman is working with the starting offense, flashing some of the compelling skill set that made him a third-round choice just last season. But, when the dust settles and the games matter, I'm counting on Ball in the backfield for Denver, and I'm buying him as an RB2 with top-15 running back potential. Among dynasty options, the case can be made for Ball to top the list of rookie running backs.

 

[HacheMan]

Harvin scheduled for hip surgery

Stephania Bell

Percy Harvin is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip Thursday with Dr. Bryan Kelly of the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. Kelly has extensive experience operating on the hips of elite athletes across multiple sports, including Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas and Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora.
The biggest concern for fans and fantasy owners alike is whether Harvin will play this season and at what point he might return. Based on the available information, it appears Harvin has a chance to come back near the end of the regular season, with the earliest return date hovering around the 16-week post-surgery mark. Nov. 21, which happens to be the day Week 12 gets under way, is 16 weeks from this Thursday, the planned surgery date. Interestingly, Seattle has a bye that week, meaning it's likely that the soonest Harvin would be able to play is the following Monday, Dec. 2, when the Seahawks host the Saints.

Naturally, that date is fluid, depending on what specifically is addressed during the operation, how smoothly the recovery process goes and how quickly Harvin can get into football shape following surgery.



So why do surgery now? It's a fair question, given that there were early suggestions that Harvin could try to play through the injury. While it might be admirable for him to attempt to play in the presence of a known injury, it might not be in his or the Seahawks' best interest. For starters, it's possible that he could sustain additional damage, and if the cartilage surface is involved, it could have long-term implications for joint health (think: arthritis). Perhaps more worrisome is the potential for increasing stress across other joints, such as the knee or in the spine. There is even some evidence to suggest an increase in ACL injuries when limitations in the hip are present.


If an athlete is compromised at the hip, he can develop compensations elsewhere to help protect the hip, which can lead to other injuries. Then there's the bottom line of performance. If Harvin experiences pain in his hip or has motion restrictions, it can result in the shutdown of some muscle function around the hip, which will ultimately decrease his power to drive when running and his agility.

In the end, while surgery now takes Harvin out of the Seahawks' equation for a few months, it may pay off later in terms of his overall health.
No specifics have been released as to the surgical plan for Harvin, but based on earlier reports that a labral tear was suspected, the expectation is that the labrum will be either repaired or resected (removal of the damage) via an arthroscopic procedure. Additionally, some resurfacing of the bone will likely be required. The labrum is a ring of fibrocartilage, which adds depth and stability to the hip joint. When the labrum is torn, the athlete typically experiences limited motion along with pain, usually in the front of the hip or groin area. Labral tears are often associated with a condition known as FAI (femoral acetabular impingement). Essentially, FAI exists when the head (ball-shaped portion) of the femur or thighbone and the acetabulum (bone that forms the hip "socket" for the femoral head) repeatedly come into abnormal contact in certain hip positions as a result of the athlete's particular anatomy, combined with the demands of his sport. That repeated contact, or impingement ("pinching") can contribute to labral tearing, as well as other degenerative changes of the joint.
During surgery, along with addressing the labrum, any necessary bone work to correct the impingement can be performed. The more extensive the work required during surgery, the longer the potential recovery. Sometimes the full extent of the injury cannot be fully appreciated until surgery, making it hard to accurately project a timetable in advance. The joint then needs to be protected in the early phases following surgery so the athlete is on crutches, limited in weight-bearing through the hip. Regaining range of motion and light strengthening are the initial focus, with a gradual return to weight-bearing exercises as healing permits. Cardiovascular training and progressive strengthening increase until the athlete moves to sport-specific drills and, ultimately, returns to action.
The sport an athlete plays and the specific positional demands within the sport can influence the amount of time to recover. For instance, hockey players glide on ice, allowing them to return faster than runners who pound into the ground. But a football player whose job involves primarily running might not take as long to return as a lineman whose stance position and repeated explosion out of that position markedly increase stress across the hip joint. In other words, it's a sliding scale, which is why the timeframe typically issued for a labral repair with concurrent resurfacing is 4-6 months.
Harvin's light frame and positional demands allow him to potentially return in the four-month window, presuming no surprises in surgery and a smooth recovery. Even if he does return then, it's possible he will be limited in playing time early on, with a gradual increase in snaps as he tolerates the work.
For Seahawks fans, if the team is able to perform well enough to go deep into the playoffs, Harvin could potentially contribute when they need him most. For fantasy owners, this is not the year to count on him. But don't count him out in 2014.

 

[HacheMan]

QB Stock Watch: Ryan up, Wilson down?

Eric Karabell

wners. What will count are the injuries that adversely affect the rosters of NFL teams and thus fantasy owners, although hopefully not at the same rate as the final week of July, which saw Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta, among others, succumb to physical woes.

The quarterbacks have remained relatively healthy so far, which is great and hopefully will continue, but that doesn't mean value hasn't been changing. Let's take quick stock of the quarterback risers and fallers in ESPN average live drafts and aim to explain why.

Movin' on up
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: It's worth noting that every one of the top 25 quarterbacks being selected except one (we'll get to that) has seen his seven-day ADP rise, although obviously some more than others. Ryan, who recently signed a lucrative five-year extension, is a notable riser, as he starts to distance himself from San Francisco 49ers star Colin Kaepernick. There's really little explanation for this. Ryan wasn't leaving Atlanta anyway, so the contract alters nothing on the field. And Kaepernick lost his top wide receiver months ago. Fantasy owners should be working harder to secure reliable running backs in the early rounds, given that the pool is so shallow, and waiting on passers anyway. Ryan is safe -- with little concern about an Eli Manning-like fall in 2013 -- but I must admit I'd prefer each of the young running quarterbacks (Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III) a tad more, although I've ranked the four consecutively from Nos. 47-50, so it's splitting hairs.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: Anyone else following the daily reports on his injured right knee and trying to ascertain whether he'll be available in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles? Well, good luck with that. I'm certainly not raising my hand. There's just so much useless information coming from Redskins camp that doesn't tell us anything about Griffin's timetable or even how he really feels. I've been doing my best to ignore it. It seems that, this time every year, there are tons of reports from camps how every player is in the best shape of his career. I believe the amazing Griffin will play in Week 1 and play well enough to be a fantasy starter. But even if he doesn't, his value is only modestly affected. This could be the best quarterback in fantasy, or he could miss half the season. I'm confident in him, but I'd secure a top backup, just in case. With Ryan and his reliability and durability, that's really not necessary, so perhaps that's a factor in why he is movin' on up.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: The sophomore pro hasn't moved anywhere near starting consideration in standard fantasy formats, but he's being drafted regularly. After his seemingly average rookie campaign, that in itself is noteworthy. My guess is that fantasy owners are finally realizing that the accomplished -- and I'd say motivated -- Mike Wallace took his wide receiving talents to South Beach, giving Tannehill a prime target, and they're buying in. I'm kind of buying in, as well. Tannehill did not have a poor rookie season at all, and I like what Miami has done this summer. I could see Tannehill cracking the top 15 in season scoring. He's not a safe fantasy backup by definition, but, depending on who your starter is, he's likely a better upside pick than Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler.

[h=3]Movin' down

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: His drop of two spots in the seven-day average pick rankings is really all Harvin's doing, or undoing, as it were, but, as noted in my Wednesday blog post about the Seahawks' offense , Wilson managed to thrive in the 2012 season, especially in the second half, when he also didn't have Harvin. If Wilson falls out of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks -- at this pace, it seems likely he will -- pounce on that opportunity.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Although the top 25 quarterbacks being drafted in ESPN standard leagues are all moving up except Wilson, Brady is up only 0.1 percent, a negligible number, and that's significant because it shows drafters are concerned about his lack of weapons. I admit I've ranked Brady a seemingly low fifth among quarterbacks (after Peyton Manning and Cam Newton) for this reason, and, a year ago, he was first-round material for some but not for me. Still, does his situation warrant a rethinking of a monster fantasy option that has averaged 36 touchdown passes and 4,654 passing yards over the past three seasons and has three consecutive top-three finishes among fantasy quarterbacks? I really don't think it does. Brady owners should be mildly concerned that top options Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are not likely to combine for 30 games played based on their track records, but someone is going to catch the football, which seems like a topic for another blog entry. As for me, I consistently pass on the top-five quarterbacks anyway, building up running backs/wide receivers and selecting the undervalued likes of Andrew Luck and Tony Romo considerably later. I'm just a bit surprised that Brady is starting to be viewed a bit more negatively than other top options.[/h]

 

[HacheMan]

For years, you've heard the phrase, "Touchdowns drive fantasy football scoring." From a technical standpoint that's true: Nine of the 10 players to score 12 or more touchdowns in 2012 finished among the top 18 flex-play (that's all running backs, wide receivers and tight ends) options in fantasy points, and every one of the seven quarterbacks who managed at least 30 passing or six rushing scores ranked among the top seven at the position in fantasy scoring.

But what the fantasy community has learned over the years is that there's a difference between driving scoring and being predictive, and the point is that touchdowns -- especially receiving touchdowns -- are not an especially predictive statistical category.

James Jones' 2012 touchdown total serves as a basic example. Fourteen receiving scores in a season is a feat that has been accomplished by 35 different players in NFL history, and done in back-to-back seasons only twice: by Jerry Rice (1986-87) and Marvin Harrison (2000-01). Lower the bar for TD success: Since 2000, only 12 players -- Harrison (2000-06), Randy Moss (2000-01, 2003-04, 2007-09), Terrell Owens (2000-02, 2006-08), Hines Ward (2002-03), Torry Holt (2003-04), Joe Horn (2003-04), Antonio Gates (2004-05), Plaxico Burress (2006-07), Larry Fitzgerald (2007-09), Roddy White (2009-10), Rob Gronkowski (2010-12) and Calvin Johnson (2010-11) -- have managed as many as 10 receiving scores in back-to-back years.

Let's dig deeper: Jones was the aforementioned 10th player who failed to finish among the top 18 flex-play scorers, and the reason was that his fantasy point total was largely touchdown-driven. He failed to place among the top 25 wide receivers in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and among players with at least 25 targets and 20 receptions, his rates of targets per touchdown (6.9) and receptions per touchdown (4.6) were lowest in the league.

It's the assumption that Jones' touchdown total will regress to the mean -- a belief in which fantasy owners are gaining a greater understanding -- that's pushing him to third-most-draftable among Green Bay Packers wide receivers. Perhaps fueling that is this additional fact: Randall Cobb (10.0) averaged more fantasy points per game than Jones (9.9) last season, and Jordy Nelson (9.5) wasn't far behind.

With Greg Jennings now a division rival with the Minnesota Vikings, one might have made the natural assumption that Jennings' targets will be divided evenly among those who remain in Green Bay. It'd have been a mistaken assumption and one that fortunately isn't being reflected in the preseason average draft position; a quick glance at the Packers' 2012 splits in games Jennings played and missed shows that Jones' role might have already reached its maximum breadth.

Jennings played eight games and missed eight, creating a nicely balanced split. Here are Cobb's, Jones' and Nelson's -- as well as tight end Jermichael Finley's -- per-game numbers in each split:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
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	<CENTER>Jennings sat</CENTER>	<CENTER>Jennings played</CENTER>
Player	<CENTER>Snaps</CENTER>	<CENTER>% of Team's Snaps</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rec</CENTER>	<CENTER>Tgt</CENTER>	<CENTER>Routes</CENTER>	<CENTER>Snaps</CENTER>	<CENTER>% of Team's Snaps</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rec</CENTER>	<CENTER>Tgt</CENTER>	<CENTER>Routes</CENTER>
Cobb	42.1	65.6%	5.1	7.1	24.1	37.3	49.4%	5.6	6.4	22.9
Jones	59.4	92.4%	3.5	6.0	30.0	58.0	87.9%	4.5	6.0	33.5
Nelson	49.1	66.9%	4.3	6.1	26.3	41.8	39.6%	3.8	5.6	29.2
Finley	35.0	54.5%	2.5	4.0	19.6	45.9	69.5%	5.1	6.6	25.4

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Jones' usage showed no discernible change regardless of personnel on the field, and to give you an understanding of just what his snap total meant, bear in mind that he played the 11th-most snaps of any NFL wide receiver last season. He played more than 90 percent of the Packers' snaps, so if he's to make any gains, it'll have to be a noticeable increase in looks from Aaron Rodgers. Considering Jones was already the team's leader in red zone targets (18), even those might amount to low-fantasy-impact, between-the-20s yards. And remember, it takes 60 receiving yards for him to replace the production from any lost touchdown.

Cobb and Nelson, meanwhile, reaped the benefits of additional looks from Rodgers while Jennings nursed his injuries. There's also much chatter this preseason that Cobb will assume a larger role in the passing game and smaller accordingly on returns, while Nelson's 12.7 fantasy points per game from Week 1 of 2011 through Week 7 of 2012 -- the latter his final game before he first hurt his hamstring -- is difficult to ignore. There's little doubt that Cobb and Nelson, therefore, have the most to gain from Jennings' departure. Certainly they have greater room for growth than Jones.

(On an aside, that's if the Packers don't take a closer look at Jarrett Boykin, if not during the preseason, then sometime during the regular season.)

In Jones' defense, though, that he's the third-most-draftable Packers wide receiver hardly makes him undraftable; it's not a black mark by any means.

Again citing Jones' team-leading red zone target total (18), he does have Rodgers' trust where it counts, giving him some of the better odds of any receiver this millennium of pulling off the 10-plus-score repeat. One regression-related argument that carries little weight: Nelson's decline from 15 scores in 2011 to seven in 2012 shouldn't be used in comparison. Five of his 15 touchdowns in 2011 were of 50 yards or greater, eight of at least 35 yards; Nelson garnered 14 red zone targets by comparison. Jones, meanwhile, scored only three touchdowns of 20 yards or greater in 2012, and all were of 32 yards or fewer; there was little question that he had more of Rodgers' eye in scoring position than Nelson did the year before.

Let's also not gloss over the risk factors facing Cobb and Nelson. Cobb might have to be reined in at times in the receiving game should Jeremy Ross falter again on special teams; let's not forget Ross' critical muffed punt during the divisional playoffs last season. Nelson, meanwhile, missed four full games and parts of two others with hamstring and ankle issues, and needs to prove his health. It's not unthinkable that Jones could emerge as the team's fantasy leader among wide receivers for the second straight season.


[h=1]Is James Jones underappreciated?[/h][h=3]After 14 TDs in 2012, fantasy owners clearly not expecting repeat performance[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

After a 14-TD season, how can James really be the third-most-draftable Packers WR?
The simple answer: Fantasy owners are getting smarter.


You simply shouldn't draft him as though he will be.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Is Wilson a sure fantasy starter?[/h][h=3]Seahawks QB has nearly same weapons as 2012 but improvement is key[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Is Russell Wilson a no-doubt starting fantasy quarterback?

On March 11, it appeared Russell Wilson's NFL fortunes were on the uptick. That was the day the Seattle Seahawks traded a first-round pick in the '13 draft (along with a couple other picks) to the Minnesota Vikings for Percy Harvin. The team subsequently extended Harvin to a six-year, $67 million deal (albeit one with "only" $14.5 million guaranteed). Suddenly, Wilson would be paired with one of the NFL's most dynamic and versatile pass-catchers for the primes of their respective careers. On this news, I bumped Wilson up to No. 7 on my quarterback list for '13.

Of course, we all know now that Harvin has undergone hip surgery and will reportedly return Week 13, at the earliest. Where does that leave Wilson?


By all accounts, it leaves him stuck in 2012. The Seahawks' skill-position players this season will look the same as last season: Marshawn Lynch at RB, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate starting at WR and Zach Miller at TE (assuming the foot injury Miller suffered in last season's playoffs has healed). This was a group that finished ninth in overall points scored in '12 and third in points scored from Week 6 forward. It is not at all shabby.

But with this same group, Wilson finished "only" 11th in fantasy points among QBs last season. Among QBs who played 16 games, Wilson had the fewest pass attempts: 393, or 334 fewer than league leader Matthew Stafford. The Seahawks were the NFL's run-heaviest team, running on 57 percent of their snaps; Wilson had zero 300-yard passing days and nine games in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards. The average fantasy QB produced 14.7 points per game last season, and Wilson finished below that in seven contests. Without Harvin to shake up this particular apple cart in '13, it's fair to be concerned that hype about Wilson is beginning to exceed reason, thanks in part to the lofty expectations the Seahawks have as a team.

In fact, I lowered Wilson three spots to No. 10 on my QB list on news of Harvin's absence. That doesn't mean I'm completely pessimistic about Wilson's '13 prospects. I acknowledge that he was tremendous for a rookie whose lack of height was supposed to make him a career NFL backup. He got better as '12 went along, posting seven above-average fantasy days in his final eight starts. Also, I think it's fair to argue that Wilson can get better results as a rusher without stretching too far. He finished last season with the third-most rushing yards among QBs (489) but never really broke out in that regard until the season's final five games:

[h=3]Russell Wilson, Final 5 Games Last Season[/h]

Week	Rush Attempts	Rush Yards	Rush TDs
13	9	71	0
14	3	12	0
15	9	92	3
16	6	29	0
17	10	58	1

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In particular, that Week 15 contest against the Buffalo Bills (in Toronto) illustrated how dangerous Wilson can be. He rushed for three TDs in the first half: The first and third came off read-option plays on which he kept the ball and scampered untouched into the end zone, and the second came off a traditional pocket scramble on which he displayed his open-field elusiveness. Seattle used read-option looks more as last season progressed, though not nearly as much as a team like the Washington Redskins. I'd bet Wilson won't have it quite so easy on keeper run-option plays this season as he did against the Bills, but I also think that, as a changeup, it can be effective and will still be part of the Seahawks' playbook. This helps explain why I project Wilson to produce 526 yards rushing and five rushing TDs this season. If I'm right, and Wilson nets 80-plus fantasy points with his legs alone, it's hard to envision him becoming a total fantasy bust as long as he's healthy.

But it's in the passing game where Wilson would need to jump ahead to become a true fantasy stud, and, without Harvin, I'm concerned that won't happen. I don't mean to imply Wilson isn't a pleasure to watch when he's throwing: He's got a big arm, he's dynamic in the pocket with a nice feel for the pass rush, and even when he's on the move he gets himself in a sound throwing position. But unless Seattle opens things up passing the ball, Wilson has precious little margin for error. It's flat-out rare for a QB who throws for just 3,118 yards to produce 26 passing TDs, as Wilson did in '12. Of the 91 seasons in which a QB has thrown for 25-plus TDs since 2001, in only one did a QB throw for fewer yards than Wilson: Matt Cassel racked up 3,116 passing yards while tallying 27 aerial TDs in '10:

[h=3]Fewest Pass Yds, Single Season
Among QBs with at least 25 Pass TDs[/h]

	Season	Pass Yards	Pass TDs
Matt Cassel	2010	3,116	27
Russell Wilson	2012	3,118	26
Ben Roethlisberger	2007	3,154	32
Drew Brees	2004	3,159	27
Donovan McNabb	2001	3,233	25

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As such, unless Wilson's passing yardage goes up, his passing TDs are likely to come down. With Rice perpetually a candidate for injury and Miller dealing with a prolonged foot injury, and with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and head coach Pete Carroll seeming to confirm that Seattle will remain run-oriented, unfortunately, I don't see Wilson's pass yardage skyrocketing (not through any fault of his own).

All this helps to explain why, despite the fact that I really like Wilson as a player, it was fairly easy to downgrade him for fantasy purposes once Harvin got hurt. Wilson's legs make him a guy who can win you a fantasy game, and if you decide to wait a long while before drafting a QB, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend him. But if the Seahawks' attack remains conservative in '13, there will also be weeks during which Wilson can lose you a game. If his passing yardage stays in the low 3,000s, guys like Matt Ryan, Stafford and even Robert Griffin III clearly offer a better combination of security and upside.

 

[HacheMan]

Randall Cobb burst onto the scene in his very first professional game after being the 64th overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft. He had a 108-yard kickoff return touchdown and hauled in a 32-yard touchdown pass in Packers' season-opening victory against the Saints. Cobb's 15 standard-league points had owners scrambling for his services on the wire.

Unfortunately for them, Cobb didn't do much the rest of his rookie season. He didn't score even half of his Week 1 total in any of his 14 games after that, averaging just over 2.0 points per game.

So how could anyone have seen Cobb's jump from 44 points in 2010 to 150 last season, 17th among all wide receivers? Were there any clues in his rookie season that could have predicted his success? As a matter of fact, yes.

• Cobb caught 25 of 31 targets in his rookie season, posting the highest catch rate (80.6 percent) of the 117 receivers with at least 30 targets.
• He also averaged 7.5 yards after the catch per reception, fourth-highest in the data set.

• His 8.6 average target depth showed a clear role for him in the Packers' offense as well. Only aging Donald Driver joined Cobb with an average target depth below 11.5 yards, and Driver's role was diminishing in the Green Bay offense.

• Cobb took advantage of his limited third-down opportunities as well, one way to gain favor from a quarterback. Cobb converted 5-of-8 (62.5 percent) third-down targets for first downs, a better percentage than any other Packers' receiver.

In limited action, Cobb proved himself reliable and explosive. Numbers backed him for a bigger role in the Green Bay offense, and he got it in 2012.

Of course, there's no certain way to nail down who will break out or who will bust. However, digging into the numbers behind the numbers can paint a clearer picture. Here are five players with 2012 peripherals that look better (or worse) than their current ESPN Fantasy projections for 2013.

[h=3]Poised to break out[/h]
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Even though he has only 35 career starts at quarterback between college and the pros, Tannehill already has the blitz figured out. Tannehill averaged 8.4 yards per attempt when defenses sent at least five rushers after him, fourth-best among qualified QBs.

The deep ball is no concern, either. Tannehill completed 44.4 percent of passes deeper than 20 yards downfield last season. Only Robert Griffin III (47.1 percent) and Peyton Manning (45.9 percent) were better.

His numbers look even better considering whom he was targeting. Dolphins receivers dropped 5.6 percent of Tannehill's passes, eighth-highest among qualified quarterbacks.

Brian Hartline was the most-targeted Dolphin on downfield throws (24), 13th in the league. Hartline caught 57.4 percent of targets in the first three years of his career (before Tannehill), trailing 76 other qualified wide receivers. In addition, Hartline was clocked at 4.52 seconds in the 40-yard dash, hardly optimal for a big-play receiver. New Dolphin Mike Wallace was clocked at 4.33 at the combine, and brings more of a deep-threat pedigree than Hartline. Wallace has 16 touchdown catches on deep throws since the start of 2010, more than anyone else.

So why is Tannehill barely a top-25 quarterback in ESPN's rankings? He averaged 6.1 yards per attempt against standard pressure (four or fewer rushers), second-worst among qualified QBs. Tannehill's 50.0 Total QBR ranked 26th among qualified quarterbacks. Defenses keyed in on it as a weakness as the season progressed, too. Tannehill faced four or fewer rushers at a higher rate than league average (70.5 percent) in none of his first eight games, but did so in six of his final eight games.

There was cause for concern early, as Tannehill really struggled against standard pressure in his first 10 games. He completed 55.2 percent of passes with a touchdown and five interceptions against four or fewer rushers in those games. Tannehill's 40.7 Total QBR against standard pressure was 33rd among qualified quarterbacks through Week 1-11.

Tannehill's final six games were much better, as he completed 62.5 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and one interception against four or fewer rushers. His Total QBR rank against standard pressure jumped to 16th in that span. His schedule wasn't easy for a rookie quarterback down the stretch, facing the Seahawks, 49ers and Patriots twice (once with Aqib Talib).

Considering Tannehill had 19 starts at quarterback in his entire college career, it's reasonable that he needed 10 games to adjust to NFL defenses.

Now consider Wallace wasn't the only weapon Tannehill added in the offseason. The tight end with the best catch percentage among those with at least 30 targets last year was new Dolphin Dustin Keller (28 receptions on 35 targets, 80.0 percent). Former Dolphin Anthony Fasano's 63.1 catch percentage ranked 26th among tight ends.

Just how big a step will Tannehill take this year? Only slight improvement might not help many owners, but Tannehill is worth gambling on as a QB2.


Chris Ivory, New York Jets

As of this writing, 27 running backs are projected to score more standard points than Chris Ivory this season, surprising given the uncertainty at quarterback for the Jets and the lack of proven options on the roster.

Whoever gets carries for the Jets won't finish the season as the 28th-best running back in fantasy, and Ivory looks to be the favorite, although yet another injury (he's played just 12 games the past two years) -- this time a hamstring -- has kept him sidelined throughout camp at this point. After all, as disappointing or frustrating as Shonn Greene was to own last year, he finished 14 spots ahead of Ivory's preseason projection rank.

Last season, the Jets called designed rushes on 46.4 percent of plays from scrimmage, fifth-highest in the NFL. They weren't elite running the football, but anything was better than when they passed; the Jets' 3.8 yards per rush ranked 23rd last season, compared to 6.4 yards per pass attempt (28th in NFL).

Factor in Mark Sanchez's proclivity for the interception, and they could have run even more. Sanchez threw a pick every 25.2 attempts, ranked 31st out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. Maybe Geno Smith breaks out right away, but the Jets' offense will likely need to run the ball to be effective at least in the beginning.

So the Jets will run, but will Ivory? Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight both failed to seize opportunities last season, prompting the team to acquire Ivory and Mike Goodson in the offseason. All four rushers have at least 112 career rushes, but none have more than Ivory's 256 (all with the Saints), so there's a decent enough sample size to compare here. It should be noted that Goodson still hasn't reported to camp following an arrest of drug and gun charges in the spring, further thinning the ranks.

Even if Goodson shows up, the numbers among this foursome back Ivory pretty strongly, since he averages better than a half-yard per rush more than the other three for his career. Since entering the league in 2010, Ivory has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. How many of the 62 active running backs with at least 200 rushes have a better average than Ivory? Three: Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller and Adrian Peterson. That's it. Shonn Greene's 4.0 ranks 42nd over that span, while neither Goodson, McKnight or Powell average better than 4.5 yards per rush in their careers.

It's not finesse running, either, which will no doubt please Rex Ryan and fantasy owners alike. Ivory's 2.4 yards after contact per rush ranks fifth among the aforementioned backs with at least 200 career carries.

His style of running has been effective moving the chains, though some of that may be attributed to letting defenses focus on Drew Brees. Still, Ivory has rushed for a first down on 28.1 percent of his career totes. Neither Powell, Goodson nor McKnight is even at 20 percent. Provided Ivory gets healthy, he's the man to watch in this backfield.

Pierre Garçon, Washington Redskins

It's not hard to see the risk involved with Garçon. He was nagged by a foot injury suffered in the first quarter of the first game of the season, and offseason shoulder surgery only adds to the possible headaches for fantasy owners.

Just don't forget the upside.

Garçon averaged 1.2 receptions for 17.1 yards per quarter played last season, which translates to 76.8 catches for 1,094.4 yards and 6.4 touchdowns for a full season. That brings Garçon to 147.8 fantasy points in a standard scoring league, a projection that would move him from 32nd among wide receivers in ESPN's current projected points to 18th.

Now let's factor in what Garçon played through last season. Garçon tore a plantar plate in his right foot, making accelerating and sprinting difficult. This reportedly affected him all season, meaning he put up those numbers playing through an injury that affected his biggest asset: Speed.

Garçon's injury may not be fully healed by Week 1, but the offseason of rest certainly didn't hurt. His production last year when playing through pain not only demonstrated his skill, but helped him build an obvious rapport with quarterback Robert Griffin III. RG III looked for Garçon often when he was on the field, targeting him 67 times on 190 routes run last season (35.3 percent). That ranked him third in the league among qualified wide receivers, with only Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin targeted on a higher percentage of routes run.

Garçon had receptions on 23.2 percent of those 190 routes, fifth-best in the league among qualified wide receivers. The only players better than Garçon were Harvin, Marshall, Michael Crabtree and Andre Johnson. Garçon's five catches on 17 red-zone routes bodes well, too. That 29.4 percent rate is best among 74 qualified receivers, showing how Griffin was not looking for Garçon to be just a big-play threat.

Choosing Garçon on draft day is undoubtedly a gamble. However, if the reports from training camp are positive as August wears on, Garçon's potential production is worth it.

[h=3]Bound to disappoint[/h]Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

The days of "Antonio Gates, fantasy superstar" are long behind him. Gates finished 12th among tight ends last year, and a closer examination makes it a surprise he wasn't lower.

There were 10 games last year in which Gates was active and had three catches or fewer. Of the 32 qualified tight ends last season, only Zach Miller, Lance Kendricks, Anthony Fasano, Joel Dreessen and Benjamin Watson finished with three catches or fewer in more games than Gates.

Gates averaged 3.3 catches for 35.9 yards and 0.47 touchdowns per game last season, his lowest averages since his rookie season of 2003 (1.6 catches, 25.9 yards and 0.1 TD). The problems Philip Rivers had last year affected Gates (more on that below), but this is no isolated season.

Gates' involvement with the Chargers' offense has decreased each year since 2009. He was targeted on 17.2 percent of his routes last year, ranked 31st among 32 qualified tight ends. That's been steadily declining from 27.3 percent in 2009, 22.0 percent in 2010 and 20.6 percent in 2011. In addition, his 11.2 catch percentage ranked 30th among qualifiers. Given the inconsistent involvement, Gates needs to do significant damage in the end zone to salvage top-10 value.

That's where it gets even more troubling, though. From 2009-11, Gates was targeted on 31.1 percent of red-zone routes, trailing only Jimmy Graham among tight ends. Last year, Gates was targeted on 21.3 percent of red-zone routes, 22nd among tight ends.

At least Gates made the most of his targets, catching 7-of-10 for six touchdowns. There still may be a little value to owning Gates, whose preseason projection ranks seventh among tight ends, but there should be plenty more than six tight ends who finish better than Gates this season.

Danario Alexander, San Diego Chargers

The physical tools keep making Alexander so tantalizing, but he just can't stay on the field. Alexander has never appeared in more than 10 games in a season, and enters his fourth year as more untapped potential than reliable option.

Alexander arrived in San Diego as a cost-effective replacement option for Vincent Jackson last year, but the Chargers couldn't replicate the downfield success they had with Jackson. Alexander's 7.0 drop percentage was the eighth-worst among 76 qualified wide receivers.

Part of Alexander's problem lies with Philip Rivers. In 2010, Rivers ranked second in the league with a 43.6 completion percentage on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield, averaging a league-high 16.3 yards per attempt. He's regressed in each of the past two seasons, tying for 15th with a 33.3 completion percentage in 2012, while his 10.7 yards per attempt ranked 22nd.

Due to the ineffectiveness, Rivers threw downfield less and checked down more. Rivers had 54 attempts deeper than 20 yards downfield, his fewest in the past five years. He also threw 156 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, most in the league and at least 50 more than he had thrown in a season since 2008.

Even in a Norv Turner offense last season, Rivers threw 56.4 percent of his throws five yards downfield or shorter. The only quarterbacks who threw short more often were Christian Ponder and Brandon Weeden. He threw 297 passes five yards or fewer downfield, his highest total in the past five seasons and sixth-most in the league. Rivers flat-out missed (over or underthrown) on 14.9 percent of those attempts. The only quarterbacks with higher off-target percentages on short throws than Rivers were Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Ryan Tannehill.

Short passes do not play to the strength of the 6-foot-5 Alexander. He's dropped six of the 49 targets (12.2 percent) in his three-year career on passes five yards or less downfield, the second-highest rate among 94 receivers with at least 40 such targets during the past three years.

[h=1]Top breakouts, busts for 2013[/h][h=3]Peripheral stats portend improvement for Garcon, more decline for Gates[/h]
By John Parolin | Special to ESPN.com

Alexander's injury history and drop problems, plus regression from Rivers, are a lot to overcome for Alexander to live up to his projection as the 28th wide receiver.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]10-team, PPR mock draft[/h][h=3]Pass-catching backs shoot up the board, while QBs still wait to be selected[/h]
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Practice makes perfect. Rome wasn't built in a day. Pick whatever cliché you'd like, but the truth remains. If you jump into your fantasy draft without taking advantage of ESPN's Mock Draft Lobby, you may end up looking a lot like Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller did on Miami's first handoff of this past Sunday's Hall of Fame Game. It won't look pretty.

With the preseason officially underway, the ESPN.com fantasy staff once again dove into the process of sorting out the NFL into our own personal fantasy rosters. This time, it comes in the form of a 10-team PPR league. The participants for 2013's Mock Draft 4, in a randomly determined first-round order, were: Keith Lipscomb, Shawn Cwalinski, Christopher Harris, Pierre Becquey, James Quintong, Jim McCormick, KC Joyner, Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft and yours truly.

Were mistakes made? Probably so. Do some of the participants already regret some of their selections, even with only a minor amount of hindsight? Isn't that always the case? The truth is there's still a lot of change ahead of us before the games start to count for real. In fact, since this draft was completed on Aug. 2, the San Francisco 49ers signed Austin Collie to a contract and news came out that Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson (hamstring) will miss most of the preseason, and Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson (knee surgery) will miss all of the preseason.

However, the more mocks you do, the better prepared you will be to adjust your plans on the fly. Expect the unexpected as we go through a round-by-round overview of Mock Draft 4.

[h=4]ROUND 1[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	1	Lipscomb	Adrian Peterson, Min	RB1
2	2	Cwalinski	Doug Martin, TB	RB2
3	3	Harris	Arian Foster, Hou	RB3
4	4	Becquey	Ray Rice, Bal	RB4
5	5	Quintong	Jamaal Charles, KC	RB5
6	6	McCormick	C.J. Spiller, Buf	RB6
7	7	Joyner	Marshawn Lynch, Sea	RB7
8	8	Karabell	LeSean McCoy, Phi	RB8
9	9	Cockcroft	Calvin Johnson, Det	WR1
10	10	Mass	Trent Richardson, Cle	RB9

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Things start off in typical fashion at No. 1 with Adrian Peterson going to Lipscomb. After all, Peterson has been the top dog in terms of ADP in ESPN live drafts so far in 2013. But it took only one more pick for Cwalinski to flip the script. He took Doug Martin, which certainly raised a few eyebrows in the room, but defended the move in one word: safety.

"Arian Foster has been dealing with injuries and his YPC (yards per carry) has declined for a couple of years. Ray Rice is going to lose some touches to Bernard Pierce. C.J. Spiller has durability issues. Marshawn Lynch had the back problems last season, and does not catch many passes," Cwalinski explains.

While the decision on which running back to select was an interesting one, the decision to take a running back was certainly one shared by most first-round participants. Calvin Johnson, at No. 9, was the only first-round selection to play any other position.

Personally, I was really hoping Megatron would have lasted one more pick so I could select him at the bookend spot. However, knowing I was going to have to wait for 18 more players to get taken off the board before I made my next two picks, there was no way to avoid my following the crowd and taking a running back of my own. We know Trent Richardson will get the ball as long as he can stay healthy, but we also know that was a bit of an issue last season. I am not thrilled with the No. 10 spot.

[h=4]ROUND 2[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	11	Mass	A.J. Green, Cin	WR2
2	12	Cockcroft	Steven Jackson, Atl	RB10
3	13	Karabell	Matt Forte, Chi	RB11
4	14	Joyner	Dez Bryant, Dal	WR3
5	15	McCormick	Brandon Marshall, Chi	WR4
6	16	Quintong	Darren Sproles, NO	RB12
7	17	Becquey	Aaron Rodgers, GB	QB1
8	18	Harris	Reggie Bush, Det	RB13
9	19	Cwalinski	Jimmy Graham, NO	TE1
10	20	Lipscomb	Alfred Morris, Wsh	RB14

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After I kicked the round off with A.J. Green and his 100-reception potential, we had a veritable mixed bag of positions being covered by the panel. Our first quarterback went to Becquey at No. 17. Given his allegiance to the Green Bay Packers, we weren't all that stunned by the selection, yet it was far from Becquey's plan: "I went in with a clear RB/RB mindset, and did not expect Rodgers to be available with this pick, though with this gang, that's not all that surprising. I grabbed Rodgers over Reggie Bush and Frank Gore thinking I'd start the QB run and have either a premier WR or one of Bush/Gore fall to me at No. 24." We'll see how that plan worked out in a moment.

Darren Sproles, a PPR darling, went to Quintong one pick prior to Rodgers. If it were just yardage, there's no way you could justify taking him before Round 4 or 5, but with an extra 80 points or so thanks to his pass-catching expertise? There's no way he should still be on the board following Round 2. His New Orleans Saints teammate Jimmy Graham gets taken three picks later, breaking the seal on tight ends. With the season-ending hip injury to Dennis Pitta, the number of "elite" tight end options continues to dwindle, and Graham's relative value to the "rest of what's left" rises with every name we cross off the draft board.

Harris, who had coveted Sproles, opted for former Saints running back Bush, now in Detroit: "I took him as the No. 13 RB, which obviously in a standard format would be a crazy-reach, but I'm biting on Bush in a PPR. I think 90 catches is in play."

[h=4]ROUND 3[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	21	Lipscomb	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari	WR5
2	22	Cwalinski	Chris Johnson, Ten	RB15
3	23	Harris	Andre Johnson, Hou	WR6
4	24	Becquey	Frank Gore, SF	RB16
5	25	Quintong	Roddy White, Atl	WR7
6	26	McCormick	Demaryius Thomas, Den	WR8
7	27	Joyner	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac	RB17
8	28	Karabell	David Wilson, NYG	RB18
9	29	Cockcroft	Darren McFadden, Oak	RB19
10	30	Mass	Drew Brees, NO	QB2

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Back to Becquey, who did indeed end up with Gore at No. 24. Not only does that rhyme, but it also validates his reasons for grabbing Rodgers in Round 2. The gamble paid off. Maurice Jones-Drew's health is something that Joyner finally gambled on at No. 27. If MJD returns to form, this is the kind of pick that can win a fantasy league. Cwalinski had thought seriously about grabbing Jones-Drew at No. 22, but eventually went with Chris Johnson, citing 2012 as the receiving anomaly: "Last year was the first time Johnson had fewer than 40 receptions in a season. He's averaged 46 per year for his career. He's just a little bit safer than MJD."

McCormick didn't love what was left at running back in this round, so he went with Demaryius Thomas and the upside of a wide receiver working with Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and one who finished as the No. 5 player at his position last season.

Cockcroft played some "draft defense" here, as he feared Darren McFadden and Stevan Ridley would both be gone after I made my next two picks, and he didn't want to get stuck drafting a back with far lesser value. I probably would have grabbed Ridley in Round 3, but with Drew Brees still on the board and uncertainty as to whether any of the "top tier of five" quarterbacks would be there for me at No. 50, I passed. As it turns out, Cockcroft could have ended up with Brees and McFadden, but the alternative had he taken Brees and I did grab his two RBs would have likely been far worse a final result for him.

[h=4]ROUND 4[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	31	Mass	Wes Welker, Den	WR9
2	32	Cockcroft	Stevan Ridley, NE	RB20
3	33	Karabell	Julio Jones, Atl	WR10
4	34	Joyner	Vincent Jackson, TB	WR11
5	35	McCormick	Lamar Miller, Mia	RB21
6	36	Quintong	Peyton Manning, Den	QB3
7	37	Becquey	Randall Cobb, GB	WR12
8	38	Harris	Reggie Wayne, Ind	WR13
9	39	Cwalinski	Victor Cruz, NYG	WR14
10	40	Lipscomb	Montee Ball, Den	RB22

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[h=4]ROUND 5[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	41	Lipscomb	Dwayne Bowe, KC	WR15
2	42	Cwalinski	Jordy Nelson, GB	WR16
3	43	Harris	Shane Vereen, NE	RB23
4	44	Becquey	DeMarco Murray, Dal	RB24
5	45	Quintong	Marques Colston, NO	WR17
6	46	McCormick	Cam Newton, Car	QB4
7	47	Joyner	Mike Wallace, Mia	WR18
8	48	Karabell	Steve Smith, Car	WR19
9	49	Cockcroft	Danny Amendola, NE	WR20
10	50	Mass	Ryan Mathews, SD	RB25

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Call it the round of the Denver Broncos, as I took Wes Welker at No. 31, Quintong took Peyton Manning at No. 36, and Montee Ball went at No. 40 to Lipscomb. Although Ronnie Hillman currently sits atop the Broncos depth chart, Lipscomb sees the tea leaves going his way: "I expect Ball to be the most productive back in Denver, as I feel he'll be able to pass-protect and benefit from getting plenty of touches in an offense led by Peyton Manning."

Becquey completes his Green Bay double-dip with Randall Cobb at No. 37 and expresses no concern about loading up his basket with so many eggs. "It was too much value to pass up in the fourth round. I'd have done the same with Megatron and Matthew Stafford or Peyton Manning and either Welker or Thomas. I love Cobb in a PPR this season; he earned Rodgers' trust last season and became more and more of a weapon as the season wore on (almost 20 percent more receptions per game after the bye). Rodgers has a lot of mouths to feed, but Cobb's versatility will keep him near the top of the pecking order." Of course, had Becquey known about the Bryan Bulaga injury at the time, he might have felt differently about this particular case (though he just as easily may not have), but this draft took place before the lineman tore his ACL and was declared out for the season.

The Carolina Panthers also get more love at this stage of the draft than do the New England Patriots. McCormick takes Cam Newton at No. 46, elevating him over Tom Brady, not because of any doubts with Brady's receiving corps but because "Newton just stood out at this point given the awesome potential his legs provide. I just love how often Newton cashes in on the ground."

Karabell took Steve Smith at No. 49, just ahead of Danny Amendola. "I thought Smith was the best wide receiver available at the time, PPR or not. I certainly considered Amendola, but only one of those two guys is likely to play a full season. After taking running backs with my first three picks, I certainly wasn't looking at any other position except wide receiver here."

As for me, it's the reverse, having to worry almost exclusively about building up my running back corps. Ryan Mathews is certainly not going to see a lot of third downs on a team that has Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead, but if he can get 7-9 yards on each set of downs before he gets the hook, he'll still have value. Le'Veon Bell, assuming he wins the job in Pittsburgh, certainly is a big enough back that he might well get those lucrative goal-line carries and the touchdowns that go along with them.

[h=4]ROUND 6[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	51	Mass	Le'Veon Bell, Pit	RB26
2	52	Cockcroft	Tom Brady, NE	QB5
3	53	Karabell	Hakeem Nicks, NYG	WR21
4	54	Joyner	Tony Gonzalez, Atl	TE2
5	55	McCormick	Chris Ivory, NYJ	RB27
6	56	Quintong	Rob Gronkowski, NE	TE3
7	57	Becquey	Antonio Brown, Pit	WR22
8	58	Harris	Eddie Lacy, GB	RB28
9	59	Cwalinski	Ahmad Bradshaw*, Ind	RB29
10	60	Lipscomb	Pierre Garcon, Wsh	WR23

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[h=4]ROUND 7[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	61	Lipscomb	Jason Witten, Dal	TE4
2	62	Cwalinski	Matt Ryan, Atl	QB6
3	63	Harris	Eric Decker, Den	WR24
4	64	Becquey	Vernon Davis, SF	TE5
5	65	Quintong	Giovani Bernard, Cin	RB30
6	66	McCormick	DeSean Jackson, Phi	WR25
7	67	Joyner	Robert Griffin III, Wsh	QB7
8	68	Karabell	James Jones, GB	WR26
9	69	Cockcroft	Torrey Smith, Bal	WR27
10	70	Mass	Steve Johnson, Buf	WR28

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By this point in the draft, Harris was already loading up his bench spots, prepared to wait on other open spots in his starting lineup as long as possible, this being a 10-team league. "Eddie Lacy and Eric Decker were my sixth- and seventh-round picks … and meh, they're bench players and I took the best available. If you're asking why I didn't go QB and TE, it's because they're deep, and I figured I'd just wind up getting Colin Kaepernick and Martellus Bennett, since I always seem to get Colin Kaepernick and Martellus Bennett."

(Spoiler alert: Harris eventually gets Colin Kaepernick and Martellus Bennett.)

Tom Brady falls out of the top 50, though not by much, to Cockcroft at No. 52. It might be the lowest Brady has fallen in a mock draft since he was backing up Drew Bledsoe. Fellow Patriot Rob Gronkowski goes at No. 56, and even though the presumption is that he'll miss a few games, once he does return to action, he still could outscore all other tight ends from that point forward, if not pass a few who got a few games' head-start on him.

Joyner actually passed on Gronkowski and selected Tony Gonzalez at No. 54, but in his case, the timing was not right to go with a player who was going to miss some time. "Gonzalez is actually ranked one notch below Gronkowski on my TE board, but by the time this pick rolled around, my team included Dez Bryant and Maurice Jones-Drew. Those two have some built-in risk, so it seemed like a safer choice to pass up the player who could start the season on the PUP list." Tight ends certainly ruled this portion of the draft, as Jason Witten and Vernon Davis also went off the board in these two rounds.

Quintong's pick of Giovani Bernard drew a few moans of disappointment. "I think Bernard is going to be the pass-catching part of the Bengals backfield, so even if he doesn't get the big numbers on the ground, he'll be valuable enough in PPR leagues through the air," explains Quintong. So even though BenJarvus Green-Ellis may get the bulk of the carries, in a PPR league, he gets selected nine spots after his young new teammate.

[h=4]ROUND 8[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	71	Mass	Andre Brown, NYG	RB31
2	72	Cockcroft	Johnathan Franklin, GB	RB32
3	73	Karabell	Cecil Shorts, Jac	WR29
4	74	Joyner	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin	RB33
5	75	McCormick	Greg Jennings, Min	WR30
6	76	Quintong	Anquan Boldin, SF	WR31
7	77	Becquey	Rashard Mendenhall, Ari	RB34
8	78	Harris	Colin Kaepernick, SF	QB8
9	79	Cwalinski	Mike Williams, TB	WR32
10	80	Lipscomb	Matthew Stafford, Det	QB9

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[h=4]ROUND 9[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	81	Lipscomb	DeAngelo Williams, Car	RB35
2	82	Cwalinski	Daryl Richardson, StL	RB36
3	83	Harris	Vick Ballard, Ind	RB37
4	84	Becquey	Tavon Austin, StL	WR33
5	85	Quintong	Danario Alexander, SD	WR34
6	86	McCormick	Isaiah Pead, StL	RB38
7	87	Joyner	Miles Austin, Dal	WR35
8	88	Karabell	Ben Tate, Hou	RB39
9	89	Cockcroft	Greg Olsen, Car	TE6
10	90	Mass	Andrew Luck, Ind	QB10

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[h=4]ROUND 10[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	91	Mass	T.Y. Hilton, Ind	WR36
2	92	Cockcroft	Chris Givens, StL	WR37
3	93	Karabell	Russell Wilson, Sea	QB11
4	94	Joyner	Josh Gordon, Cle	WR38
5	95	McCormick	Pierre Thomas, NO	RB40
6	96	Quintong	Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl	RB41
7	97	Becquey	Ryan Williams, Ari	RB42
8	98	Harris	Sidney Rice, Sea	WR39
9	99	Cwalinski	Lance Moore, NO	WR40
10	100	Lipscomb	Emmanuel Sanders, Pit	WR41

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I'm not immune to the double-dip myself, and I wanted to make sure I grabbed a decent enough backup quarterback who did not share a bye week with Drew Brees. With a lot of question marks hanging over some of the wide receivers still on the board (Josh Gordon, Sidney Rice), I decided to just go all-in on the Indianapolis Colts and the Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton combo. And if the new offense in Indianapolis "lacks Pep," well, these are backups anyway.

A bevy of St. Louis Rams went off the board in this part of the proceedings. Daryl Richardson (No. 82) and Isaiah Pead (No. 86) could be in a time-share once Pead comes back from his one-game suspension. And if Sam Bradford is going to throw for upwards of 3,700 yards, somebody is going to catch those passes. Hence, Tavon Austin (No. 84) and Chris Givens (No. 92) also get snatched up, even if Bradford himself remains unlikely to get a sniff from most fantasy football owners in a one-QB league.

[h=4]ROUND 11[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	101	Lipscomb	Rueben Randle, NYG	WR42
2	102	Cwalinski	Jonathan Stewart, Car	RB43
3	103	Harris	Michael Floyd, Ari	WR43
4	104	Becquey	Mikel Leshoure, Det	RB44
5	105	Quintong	Mark Ingram, NO	RB45
6	106	McCormick	Bernard Pierce, Bal	RB46
7	107	Joyner	Robert Turbin, Sea	RB47
8	108	Karabell	Tony Romo, Dal	QB12
9	109	Cockcroft	Alshon Jeffery, Chi	WR44
10	110	Mass	Seahawks D/ST	DEF1

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[h=4]ROUND 12[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	111	Mass	Danny Woodhead, SD	RB48
2	112	Cockcroft	49ers D/ST	DEF2
3	113	Karabell	Bryce Brown, Phi	RB49
4	114	Joyner	Eli Manning, NYG	QB13
5	115	McCormick	Aaron Dobson, NE	WR45
6	116	Quintong	Kenny Britt, Ten	WR46
7	117	Becquey	Kendall Wright, Ten	WR47
8	118	Harris	Ronnie Hillman, Den	RB50
9	119	Cwalinski	Fred Jackson, Buf	RB51
10	120	Lipscomb	Shonn Greene, Ten	RB52

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[h=4]ROUND 13[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	121	Lipscomb	Ryan Broyles, Det	WR48
2	122	Cwalinski	Vincent Brown, SD	WR49
3	123	Harris	Zac Stacy, StL	RB53
4	124	Becquey	Andre Roberts, Ari	WR50
5	125	Quintong	Texans D/ST	DEF3
6	126	McCormick	Bears D/ST	DEF4
7	127	Joyner	Brian Hartline, Mia	WR51
8	128	Karabell	Joseph Randle, Dal	RB54
9	129	Cockcroft	Brandon Myers, NYG	TE7
10	130	Mass	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou	WR52

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Now that most teams have stocked their benches with running back and wide receiver options, the first few of the more reliable defenses finally start to get selected, spearheaded my Seattle pick at No. 110 and Cockcroft's grab of San Francisco at No. 112.

Becquey got caught in a deadly game of cat-and-mouse, stealing Harris' handcuff with his selection of Mikel Leshoure at No. 104, only to find his own cuff snatched up by McCormick two picks later, much to his chagrin: "That's the risk you take with cuff-blocking; stealing the Bush handcuff cost me my own. I took Leshoure because I thought I could wait another round on Bernard Pierce to handcuff to Rice. I don't think Leshoure can be started if he's not getting carries between the 20s, so I'm counting on a Bush injury to give him value, which is preferable but riskier than hoping Rice stays fully healthy and that I don't need Pierce."

Perhaps surprisingly, there are still some value picks remaining at running back, even at this late stage of the draft. After all, Ronnie Hillman (No. 118) is technically the starter for Denver at the present time and Fred Jackson (No. 119) could well establish himself as the short-yardage back for Buffalo, a role that could lead to a glut of touchdowns. Karabell's déjà vu continues, as he selects Dallas running back Joseph Randle at pick No. 128. He explains, "I feel like I'm always getting Randle after Round 12 or so, because I have no confidence in DeMarco Murray's health. Randle doesn't figure to catch many passes even if the job is his, but it was worth the risk late."

[h=4]ROUND 14[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	131	Mass	Marcel Reece, Oak	RB55
2	132	Cockcroft	Denarius Moore, Oak	WR53
3	133	Karabell	Kyle Rudolph, Min	TE8
4	134	Joyner	Justin Forsett, Jac	RB56
5	135	McCormick	Michael Bush, Chi	RB57
6	136	Quintong	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit	QB14
7	137	Becquey	Brandon Lloyd, FA	WR54
8	138	Harris	Martellus Bennett, Chi	TE9
9	139	Cwalinski	Patriots D/ST	DEF5
10	140	Lipscomb	LaMichael James, SF	RB58

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[h=4]ROUND 15[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	141	Lipscomb	Broncos D/ST	DEF6
2	142	Cwalinski	Justin Blackmon, Jac	WR55
3	143	Harris	Bengals D/ST	DEF7
4	144	Becquey	Steelers D/ST	DEF8
5	145	Quintong	Robert Woods, Buf	WR56
6	146	McCormick	Jermichael Finley, GB	TE10
7	147	Joyner	Rams D/ST	DEF9
8	148	Karabell	Packers D/ST	DEF10
9	149	Cockcroft	Michael Vick, Phi	QB15
10	150	Mass	Jared Cook, StL	TE11

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[h=4]ROUND 16[/h]

Pick	Overall	By	Player	Pos Rank
1	151	Mass	Greg Zuerlein, StL	K1
2	152	Cockcroft	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	K2
3	153	Karabell	Blair Walsh, Min	K3
4	154	Joyner	Justin Tucker, Bal	K4
5	155	McCormick	David Akers, Det	K5
6	156	Quintong	Sebastian Janikowski, Oak	K6
7	157	Becquey	Steven Hauschka, Sea	K7
8	158	Harris	Matt Bryant, Atl	K8
9	159	Cwalinski	Matt Prater, Den	K9
10	160	Lipscomb	Phil Dawson, SF	K10

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As usual, the majority of the final rounds consisted of the remaining defenses and the mandatory selection of kickers, who made up the entirety of Round 16. There's really no reason to take one any sooner, as not only are kickers unpredictable from season to season, but also the gap between the top five and the subsequent 10 at this position is pretty much negligible.

Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger were both taken here, as backup quarterbacks. The truth is that in 10-team, one-QB leagues such as this one, you simply do not need to panic if there ends up being a quarterback run at any point of an ESPN standard league draft. You can wait a long, long time and still avoid ending up with Blaine Gabbert as your No. 1 signal-caller.

Tight ends and lottery tickets are also par for the course in the final few rounds of the draft. McCormick waited all the way to No. 146 to grab Jermichael Finley. With few owners liable to select more than just one tight end, why not wait? "I feel like after the top say five or six tight ends that there is little reason to invest in the position until the very end of drafts. Finley has a nice enough role in a potent passing offense and doesn't come with any real draft risk," McCormick posits.

Heck, even Quintong, who will likely, at the very least, need a Gronkowski fill-in for Week 1, didn't draft a second TE. He'd much rather work the waiver wire when the time comes and use his final bench spot on a "lottery ticket" that goes by the name of Robert Woods. "Woods is in a prime situation to produce as the Bills' potential No. 2 wideout -- and maybe even No. 1, given Steve Johnson's injury. He's worth at least a speculative pick very late in the draft, and if he doesn't pan out, he could get dropped for the next big thing off the waiver wire."

 

[HacheMan]

On Love, Hate and Howard Stern

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Howard Stern did the impossible.

For anyone who has followed the King of All Media's career closely, as I have for more than two decades, that shouldn't be a shock. He has consistently done the impossible. But even for me, as big and as huge a fan of his as I am, I was impressed and surprised he accomplished it because I didn't think anyone could. But let's hold that thought. And let's back up to a few weeks ago. I was on the phone with Gary Dell'Abate, known as "Baba Booey" to millions of fans, the longtime executive producer of SiriusXM's "The Howard Stern Show." He's also been a friend of mine for a number of years, ever since we did a fantasy football event together a while back.
"So," I say to him. "I wrote this book ..." I'm a little nervous. Like any author, I'd love to be on Howard's show to pitch the book, but more importantly, I know this might be my only shot to be on his show. A show I've loved for more than 20 years. The thing about Howard is there's no such thing as a casual Howard Stern fan. If you're a Stern fan, you're a hard-core fan. He inspires that kind of passion, and I'm among the many millions who count themselves as faithful.
So getting on the show would be a total bucket list moment for me in many ways. I have a book publicist who pitches me for most of my media appearances, but given my friendship with Gary, I thought that would be weird for him to get a call about me from someone who isn't me. So I picked up the phone, trying to ignore how awkward I felt, and made the call myself.


I apologize for putting him in the position, but Gary, bless him, quickly puts me at ease. "Hey, I wrote a book, I get it. I hear pitches all the time, no worries, let me hear what you got." So I tell him about "Fantasy Life." I know Howard isn't a huge sports fan, I say, but the book is all about the craziest and best parts of fantasy. You don't have to be a sports fan to know that a guy losing a fantasy league and being forced to get a Justin Bieber tattoo is funny. Like all of my columns, the book also mixes in stories from my life, and I know Howard enjoys Hollywood gossip, so I tell him the expanded story of what happened when I co-wrote "Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles" and the ensuing drama with Paul Hogan. It's the best thing I've ever written, I tell him; it's getting great reviews, and it even made the best-seller list. I am self-promoting like never before (and that's saying something), hoping something, anything will resonate.
Gary says, "I'll be honest with you. It's a long shot." He explains what I already know as a longtime fan. That Howard isn't really a sports fan and doesn't play fantasy sports. In addition, there are only so many shows in the summer, and they've already booked a number of big-name stars. Even if he's into it, they don't even have many open slots, period. But, Gary says, he knows a lot of Howard's audience plays fantasy football, and he personally likes the idea, so they'll discuss.
I knew it was a long shot when I made the call, but a long shot is still better than no shot, and I thank him for even considering it. I then pick his brain on his experiences when he was out doing his book, and as always, he is gracious with his time and advice.
As I hang up and start hoping, I quickly dismiss it, thinking there is no way it will happen. And maybe it's better this way. It's hard to put into words what Howard means to me. Howard was different. As a human being, I mean. Awkward as a kid, awkward as an adult, and he admitted everything, flaws and all, to his huge audience every day. Like many others, I found humor and solace in that. And admired the hell out of his guts and ability to communicate that in a wildly entertaining way that made you understand and root for him, to embrace his outsider status and find solidarity in it.
Before you non-fans roll your eyes right out of your head, understand that even if you are not a fan of his edgy brand of humor, he is an unbelievably smart businessman and a pioneer. The number of things that he created or was the first to accomplish is staggering and too long to list here, but one thing that often gets overlooked about Howard is that he redefined what it meant to be a morning DJ. Before the books, movie, TV shows, celebrity friends and huge national radio show, he was, like thousands of others, just a local morning DJ. Playing songs, introducing traffic and weather, reacting to the day's news. A morning DJ. There are thousands of them all across America and the world.
But Howard said, I don't care what everyone else says a morning DJ is supposed to be, I'm gonna do it how I want. And the way Howard did it was, among other things, being totally honest and making everything he could all about himself. Brilliantly.
You ever see the movie "Private Parts"? Based on Howard's best-selling book of the same name, there's a scene where the disbelieving program director, "Pig Vomit," is being told by a researcher that Howard Stern has hit No. 1 in the ratings.

RESEARCHER: The average radio listener listens for 18 minutes. The average Howard Stern fan listens for -- are you ready for this? -- an hour and 20 minutes.
PIG VOMIT: How can that be?
RESEARCHER: Answer most commonly given? "I want to see what he'll say next."
PIG VOMIT: OK, fine. But what about the people who hate Stern?
RESEARCHER: Good point. The average Stern hater listens for two and a half hours a day.
PIG VOMIT: But ... if they hate him, why do they listen?
RESEARCHER: Most common answer? "I want to see what he'll say next."
I thought there were a lot of lessons in that little scene. When I was starting out in the fantasy sports industry, I quickly realized I was different from everyone else, a theme that had resonated throughout my life. I've always been different from everyone else. Sometimes in a good way, sometimes in a painful way, but always, consistently, never failing ... I was different. If you've ever read me before, you know that, and if you never have, well, we're 1,000 words into a fantasy football article and I have yet to talk about a player, so it should be hitting you any minute now.
And people don't always react favorably to different.
Howard's bravery to be his own man, to stick to his convictions of how he thought radio should be done, to keep plowing on in the face of criticism or bosses who didn't understand him inspired me. I was a 35-year-old screenwriter who was miserable, and the thing that made me happiest was my dumb little fantasy sports websites I had started. I wanted to chase happiness by trying to make a full-time living at fantasy sports at a time when only a few people actually did that.
Howard's journey gave me the confidence to hang tough, as I heard "no" a lot, and others in the fantasy sports industry even questioned my sanity as I started down my own path. I had no idea whether I had the talent, the appeal, the luck, the ability and everything else that goes into making it full time in this or any other industry. And in the dark places of my mind, the small crevices of my psyche that I held tight and never let anyone see, my honest feeling was ... no way.
Other people had been in the business longer, had more of a track record, had more of a head start. I'm a decent writer, and I had some solid predictions. That was pretty much it. It couldn't possibly be enough to make a full-time living at this ... could it? And when I would lie awake at night and doubt myself, I would cling to the thought of "Well, Howard did it."
So yeah, I'm not just a fan of Howard Stern the entertainer. The entirety of his story means a great deal to me. His influence on me is significant. Which is why I flipped out when I got the email from Gary.
"You're on with Howard. July 30th, 7 a.m. Will be in touch soon with details."
ARE. YOU. FREAKING. SERIOUS?????
I didn't tell anyone for two days. I didn't believe it was real. I thought for sure I was going to get bumped or Howard would wake up and be like "Wait? We're having a fantasy football guy on? Scratch that."
But no, apparently Howard was into it. He thought my show-business-to-fantasy-sports story was interesting, he wanted to hear dish on Paul Hogan and the cast of "Married... With Children" and he couldn't believe what was going on with the guys who work on his show. I'm in a league with Gary, Jon Hein, Jason Kaplan, Will Murray, JD Harmeyer, Steve Brandano, Scott Salem, Ben Barto and David Heydt, all members of the Stern show and many of them well-known to listeners. There's lots of infighting among us, so Howard wanted to hear more about that.
The day of the show I am probably as nervous as I have ever been before an on-air appearance. I've been on live national TV in front of millions of people; I've done radio in various forms since I was 14 years old; I've had 45-second hits that would determine my future (or lack thereof) at ESPN. All nerve-racking, yet none of them compared to what I feel as I approach the SiriusXM building at 6:45 a.m. that Tuesday with Ronnie Mund, Howard's head of security and driver, standing there with the door open, ready to take me up. I shake hands with Ronnie and I'm like ... Holy crap, this is really happening.
Obviously, I'm nervous because the platform of the show is huge. I'm nervous because although Howard's unpredictable nature is what makes him great to listen to, it also makes you nervous when you realize you'll be sitting across from him. I have such tremendous respect for him and the show, I don't want to be a bad guest. I know that for me to get on the show, Gary, Jason, Will and Jon had to go to bat for me in a big way, so I don't want to make them look bad. So I'm nervous about all that.
But I'm probably most nervous about meeting him. I've listened to this man for more than two decades. I have built him up in my mind to a standard that is unfair to hold anyone to. Thanks to my careers in Hollywood and at ESPN, I've met a lot of athletes and celebrities in my life. And not often, but sometimes, I come away disappointed. Because they are rude, or not what they seem, or I catch them on a bad day; there have definitely been times when I have approached someone as a fan and left never wanting to see or hear from that person again.
I'm thinking about all of that as my wife and I are shown to the green room. I have a green room. Whoa. I find the room is next to a room with the woman who exchanged text messages with Anthony Weiner. Huh. You mean all that paparazzi wasn't for me? Well, this should be an interesting show.
Gary is the first to stop by, giving me a few last-minute notes and wishing me well. Jason and Jon stop by to wish me luck. Howard TV (Howard's terrific on-demand cable channel) interviews me about what I am about to do. I have no idea what I am saying. My palms are basically small lakes with a layer of skin under them.
I'm brought in, and there he is. He smiles and says hello. The first thing I notice are his eyes. Alert. So intense and alert. But kind. I'm gonna be OK.


I was on for 45 minutes, but it seemed like two. It just flew by, and the whole thing was really surreal. Almost as though I wasn't actually there but watching someone who looked like me talking to Howard. Listening back to it, if you know me, it's clear I'm nervous at first, speaking a little fast. Despite not knowing anything about fantasy sports, Howard of course asked all the right questions -- he's truly the greatest interviewer of our time -- and we covered my Hollywood life, with me telling stories about Paul Hogan and Ed O'Neill. I'll just say this: I was actually kind to both guys. We got into the dynamics of the show league, with Will trying to throw me under the bus (semideservedly, if I am being honest) and Jason, Gary and JD defending me. At the end, Howard brought in my wife, saying she was way too hot for me. Which, of course, happens to be true. Howard jokingly asked her for her Facebook, which she gave out on the air. She now has more friend requests than actual friends.
I wish I had been more relaxed during the interview. There are a couple of responses to questions that I wish I had back, hindsight giving me better lines or answers than I had in the moment. Knowing Howard hates self-plugs, I had just wanted to be real and had been overly quiet about the book, but hey, it is a huge audience, so I wish I had mentioned the book a little more. At one point, I brought up the book and he laughed and said, "You have a book? I didn't know why the hell you were here!"
But ultimately, it was a blast, and I couldn't believe I was really there the whole time. And then just like that, it was over. They broke for commercial, I took a picture with him, he took one with my wife and me, and we made small talk for a few moments.
And it was then, in a quiet moment, with the lights and microphones off, with other show members moving around preparing for the next segment, that Howard Stern did the impossible.
He exceeded my impossibly high expectations.
Like I said, thanks to my different careers (and having a brother who's a big-time talent manager), I've met a ton of celebs and athletes in my time. I've had the few minutes of small talk with more than enough to see through the celeb filter and get a decent read on a person.
As we took photos and talked, Howard was completely and totally present. He was happy with the segment and complimented me on it (whew!), we discussed photography and "America's Got Talent" and who knows what else, but he was focused on me and my wife in a completely genuine way. Remember, he's in the middle of working. This is a show, he has just a few minutes to prepare for the next hour of entertaining he has to carry, and yet he's right there with us.
People were very kind about the appearance, and a few days later, I got a note at home. From Howard. Thanking me for being on his show. I am sure he sends it to all his guests, but in all the years I've been interviewed by every type of show, it's the first time I have ever gotten a personal note like that. The whole thing, start to finish, was a complete and total class act. I didn't think it was possible, but I became a bigger Howard fan in those few moments off air than I had been in 20 years.
Before your fantasy football draft, you spend a long time thinking about everything, but in the moment you have just a few precious seconds before the clock runs out, and you have to make a quick call. Lots of buildup for one brief moment that will ultimately determine how you will feel about your team for the next six months. Which brings us, meandering very slowly, into this year's edition of Love/Hate. Here's hoping your quick moments are ones to remember for a lifetime ...
[h=3]The truth behind Love/Hate[/h]For the new kids in class or those with short memories, and for those who always seem to skip this part but have decided to finally read it … allow me to explain the premise, so you can use (or ignore) this column properly. We start with this: I hate the terms "sleeper" and "bust." I believe there are no such things. Or rather, that there are such things, but whether a player can be a "sleeper" or a "bust" is entirely dependent on what it costs to acquire said player.


Not to get all business-y on you (or all non-English-y), but a common and basic business term that gets bandied about in fantasy is return on investment, or ROI. Let's say you were a company that made two products but had to downsize to making just one. If one product sells for $1.05 and the other sells for 50 cents and you're selling as many of the first as you are of the second, you'd think you'd want to keep producing the $1.05 product, right? But if it costs $1.00 to produce the $1.05 item and just 10 cents to make the 50-cent one, well, now you're changing your tune.
Fantasy is the same way. Every player has value. It's simply about what it costs to get him. This column is all about players who, based on ESPN.com draft results for standard 10-team leagues, cost too much (or not enough) to acquire.
So please use this column as intended. It is not a sleepers-and-busts column. Rather, it's a market-inefficiency column. With puns.
It's a market, as I view it, and a market you will understand in greater detail after you read my Draft Day Manifesto. If you don't have the time, do me a favor and just click on it. I really care only about your clicks. In return, here's the super-abridged "CliffsNotes" version: You want to go running back early and often. Quarterback is deep. There are four elite wideouts, and after that there's a lot of sameness. I want to be either the first or the last guy in my league to grab a tight end. And you should really get around to watching (or rewatching) "The Princess Bride" when you get a chance.
Back to this year's Love/Hate. Not only is it not a sleepers-and-busts list, it's also not a comprehensive list of players I really like or don't like. For example, I absolutely love David Wilson this year and am on board with all the hype. But I have him ranked as an early fifth-rounder, which is exactly where he's going in ESPN.com drafts. So he doesn't make the list.
If you want a comprehensive list of whom I value and where, please check out my top 200 rankings, which will be updated throughout the preseason.
The reason for this entire preamble is the way I am formatting the column this year. I did this last year and it worked well, so I'm doing it again. Based on the ESPN Live Draft Results as of the week of Aug. 6, I'm going to go round by round and pick one or two players who are going a little too late (the "loves") or are going a little too early (the "hates") for my taste.
Hopefully, the round designations will stop questions such as, "You hate Frank Gore and love Ronnie Hillman, which one should I draft?" But I'm not holding my breath. Use your brain. It's by round. With each player, I tell you the round he is going in and the round when I would take him (based on my rankings), but use your common sense. If a guy is going in the 12th and I say he's an eighth-round guy for me, but you feel as though he'll last until the 10th or 11th in your draft, take him then. It's just that I feel that player is going to return an eighth-round value. The less you invest in terms of your pick, the better the return on the investment.
Addressing the last (fingers crossed) of the questions I get every year, people wonder why there are so many more loves than hates. That's just the nature of the beast. It doesn't do you any good to say I hate Blaine Gabbert. His value and rank already reflect that he is not highly thought of. I'm still going round by round, and, in a standard ESPN league, there are 16 rounds, so you're getting at least 16 hates. But be aware that, in general, I am from the "no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" school of thought. So you're really choosing "hate" only from the guys who are considered at a high enough level to be drafted with big expectations, which pretty much eliminates most guys in the lower rounds.
Finally, please remember this is being written in the first week in August. Other than the Hall of Fame Game, no preseason games have been played; camps haven't been open that long; much can and will change in the next month. Fantasy value changes all the time. Roles and opportunities, information about players and schemes, draft trends, health and results in the preseason all play a factor, and if you refuse to keep your mind open and are unwilling to change an opinion on a player once you get new info, that's a quick way to lose. And this next month is the most crucial.
So follow me on Twitter, become my friend on Facebook, listen to the podcast, watch "Fantasy Football Now" on Sundays at 11 a.m. on ESPN2 starting Sunday, read all the articles and ranking updates until it's time to draft, then make the decision. Or, if you choose to ignore that, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tool. That's all I am, your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke four years in a row now. Huh. Ah, what are you gonna do? I used all the good jokes in the book and on Stern. But whatever. You've read this far, clearly your threshold for entertainment is low. Let's get it on.
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[h=3]Players I Love for 2013[/h]C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills (going 9th overall, I'd draft in top 5): An obvious name, of course, but I have him in the upper half of the first round and most are letting him fall into the second half. This isn't your first rodeo, so you know he's fast (ran a 4.3-second 40-yard dash) and you know he has big-play ability (only Adrian Peterson had more 20-plus yard rushes last season), but did you know he's a tough tackle? Of running backs with at least 200 rushes last season, he was third in the NFL in yards after contact. A higher YAC average than, among others, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson. He was the seventh-best fantasy running back in 2012, so whatever, it's not like you need me to tell you he's good, but here's the thing: Spiller had just 250 offensive touches last year. By comparison, Mikel Leshoure had 249. Vick Ballard had 228. Now, with a coach who wants to run the ball (Doug Marrone's Syracuse was in the top 25 in rushing attempts in the Football Bowl Subdivision last season) and isn't going to screw around with Spiller (who had six games last year in which he had single-digit carries!), Spiller is taking the leap into fantasy superstardom.
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (going in the 2nd round, I'd draft in the 1st): I've heard all the anti-Morris arguments. You can't trust Mike Shanahan. Morris isn't involved in the passing game. "ALF" is the name of a lame puppet, not an NFL running back. Heard them all, and respectfully disagree, except for the part about the lame puppet. Very overrated sitcom. I have no fears about Shanny -- when he finds a back he loves, a la Terrell Davis -- he sticks with him. Secondly, Morris has spent all offseason working on improving his pass-catching skills; his being on the field on third down is important to both Morris and Washington. But most importantly, the Redskins want to run the ball (only Seattle had a lower percentage of passing plays last season), and when they run the ball, they don't want Robert Griffin III to be the one running it; his designed runs in 2012 were reduced over the course of the season (from seven a game to 5.1 a game after the Atlanta game to just four a game after the Browns game that Griffin missed). And now he's coming off ACL surgery. So they want to run more overall, but less with their QB. What does that mean, class? Who gets the extra carries? Exactly. Like Morris more than Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy or any non-running back.



Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons (going late 2nd, take early 2nd): I have written a ton about Jackson and have multiple board bets with my Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast co-host Nate Ravitz about Jackson for this season, but just want to go on record one more time. Big season coming for Jackson. Big.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints (3rd, 2nd): "The King of All Tight Ends"? When you're that much better than everyone else, you get to make up a nickname. He's currently going in the third, but I'm putting him here because the advantage he'll give you on a weekly basis at tight end, especially given depth at other positions, is too great to pass up in the latter part of the second.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots (3rd, late 1st/2nd): Last season, the Patriots had more rushing touchdowns than anyone else in the NFL. That's rushing touchdowns. And that's not a fluke. Over the past three years, no other team in the NFL has more rushing touchdowns or rushing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line than the New England Patriots. They were second in rushing yards last year and seventh in rushing attempts, and, with question marks around the passing game, they're going to be running more this year, not less. I get the whole "Ridley doesn't play on third down" thing, but Ridley is as good a lock for double-digit touchdowns as there is and he'll put up top-10 running back numbers without costing you a top-10 pick.
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (3rd, 2nd): New coordinator, improved offensive line; as bad as he was last season, he still finished as the 13th-best fantasy running back and averaged 4.5 yards per carry, and yes, I have him in a deep dynasty league, so I kinda need to talk myself into this. But you know what? Screw it, I'm back in on Johnson as a second-rounder.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (3rd, 2nd): He's washed up, he's coming off an injury and the Jaguars are a terrible offensive team that has switched offensive schemes. On the other hand, he's in a contract year a year after a failed holdout for more money, he was the leading rusher in the NFL less than 12 months ago and he called my book, "Fantasy Life," a must read. Let's face it: My love is for sale, and he bought it.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (4th, 3rd): Have him above Julio Jones, so yeah, I'm a superfan. In fact, I think he can be a 100-catch guy. The Packers haven't had that in a while, but he can do it. He's a special player. As long as he can stay healthy, he's going to be a big-time star for the Packers. Don't believe me? That's fine. Because the words from "I think" to "big-time star for [the Packers]," aren't me, they're a quote from Aaron Rodgers to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this summer. Cobb caught 80 balls last season, and if the guy in charge of getting him the ball thinks he can get to 100 this season, sign me up. Take note, PPR-leaguers.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (5th, early 4th): You think Reggie looks at Kanye and just laughs and laughs? Me too. It's the kind of self-satisfied, living-the-high-life-having-dodged-a-bullet kind of laugh you'll have after you pass on guys such as Darren McFadden and wait a round or two for ol' Reggie. Did you know Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell caught 86 balls between them last season? He's going to be the focal point of the part of an offense that isn't called "So what if there are three guys around Calvin? Throw it anyway!"
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (6th, 6th): In general, I think quarterbacks are going way too early in drafts given the depth of the position. But 23 times last season, a Lions pass-catcher was tackled inside an opponent's 5-yard line. Stafford threw it more than 720 times. They added Reggie Bush and get Ryan Broyles for a whole season. They are going to throw, throw, throw, and Stafford represents a great value if you miss out on the top QBs.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (7th, 5th): In his best-selling book "They Call Me Baba Booey," "The Howard Stern Show" executive producer Gary Dell'Abate describes a moment early in his career when he had just joined the Stern show on a temporary basis. When it came time for a full-time job, someone from his station basically pulled him aside and told him he had a bright future if he would just stop working on that "terrible show." Gary had worked on the show for only a little while at that point, he was young and worried about a career, and certainly, Howard was controversial. But Gary had seen enough to know the upside was huge and he'd rather go down with the Stern ship than play it safe. So he stayed with Howard, and the rest is history. That's a long way of saying I don't have much here in terms of Lamar Miller. He has that 4.9-yards-per-carry average from last season, but it's on just 51 carries. Reggie Bush is gone, and I've seen Daniel Thomas play. Miller ran a 4.4 40, the Dolphins were tied for 14th in rushing attempts last season, it's an improving offense ... but mostly, I just have optimism and belief that the upside is worth it. Love what I see. Baba Booey to you.


Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (7th, 4th/5th): Whatever you think of Alex Smith, he is the best quarterback Dwayne Bowe has ever played with. I pointed this out in my 100 Facts column, but it's worth repeating. Over Bowe's career, Chiefs quarterbacks have completed 57.8 percent of passes. Smith completed more than 70 percent of his passes last season and more than 64 percent the past two years. You know Andy Reid wants to throw; over the past nine seasons, a Reid offense has been in the top 10 in the NFL in passing yards eight times. But this is the part John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information and I both love: From Week 1 of 2004 to Week 8 of 2005, Terrell Owens, playing for Reid, was targeted 214 times, fourth-most in the NFL during that time frame. Owens had an injury in Week 8 of 2005, but from Week 1 of 2004 until that injury, he also had 1,963 yards (third-best in the NFL during that time frame) and 20 touchdowns (tied for most in the NFL). Owens was listed at 6-foot-3, 226 pounds. Bowe? He's listed at 6-2, 221 pounds. Been a while since Andy has had a wide receiver of Bowe's size. Dwayne Bowe, fantasy stud. Get used to it.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jets (7th, 6th): Death, taxes, Shonn Greene is a terrible running back. Some things are not in dispute. And yet Greene was still the 15th-best fantasy running back last season. The Jets have a lot of issues (what's your favorite? mine's fear of intimacy) but they can still run the ball. Health is always a concern, but when Ivory gets the ball, he's effective (5.1 yards-per-carry career average after last season) and he's a tough tackle: His 2.45 yards after contact over his career would be third-best in the NFL over the past three years, if he qualified. Getting a legit No. 2 running back, this year, in the sixth? Better than Eric the Actor with balloons, I'll tell you that much.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (7th, 6th): Had 106 targets last season in just 13 games and, after returning from an ankle injury, had a score in each of his final four games. And, oh yeah, no Mike Wallace. Brown's ability to get yards after the catch is a nice fit for what Todd Haley wants to do.
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (8th, 7th): It's not about being the best-looking guy at the bar; a lot of the time, it's about being the best-looking guy left at the bar.
James Jones, WR, Packers (8th, 6th) and Eric Decker, WR, Broncos (7th, 6th): Putting them together because I think the regression hate has gone too far. Do I expect double-digit touchdowns again? No. But both are on pass-happy offenses that will score a lot and have plenty of opportunity for both. Jordy Nelson is no bet to stay healthy, and as Tristan H. Cockcroft wrote in this story, Jones' snap total did not really fluctuate last season based on whether Greg Jennings was in or out of the lineup. He has Rodgers' trust in the red zone, and that, as the kids say, is worth something. Meanwhile, the Broncos will run more three-wide sets than any other team in football.
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (8th, 6th): Apparently there's a lot of good wide receiver value in the eighth. Just want to go on record as saying I don't care if you're the one throwing to him, Shorts is going to produce. Cecil Shorts is truth, justice and the American Way.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals (9th, 8th): There's absolutely nothing exciting or sexy about him, he's not even that good of a football player and absolutely no one will be jealous of you when you draft him. But he had his most success under Bruce Arians in Pittsburgh, he's now reunited with him, the Cardinals have improved the offensive line (at least in theory) and Carson Palmer's presence means defenses have to respect the pass somewhat, instead of just snickering about it on the sidelines. Lots of competition in Arizona, but at the end of the day, Rashard Mendenhall is going to be a starting running back in the NFL and get the ball at the goal line, which, in the eighth or ninth round, has some value. You don't have to watch him; just enjoy his flex-level production at below flex-level price.
Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers (9th, 8th): Sixth in targets among tight ends last season and fourth in yards, and, over the second half of the season (when Cam got his groove back, now a major motion picture), he was second in fantasy points, third in yards and fifth in receptions. I'm of the belief that if you're not the first guy to get a tight end in your league, you should be the last, but there are a few tight ends I like more than others, and Olsen is one of them.
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots (9th, 7th): Excuse me, yes, pardon me, oops, sorry, didn't mean to grab that! If I can just squeeze over here, just to the left, one more step ... ugh ... ah. Whew. OK. I don't know what anyone's talking about. Plenty of room left on the bandwagon.


T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (10th, 7th): Top 11 in the NFL last season in yards after catch, yards per reception and yards after catch per reception. Expect new Colts coordinator Pep Hamilton to use his West Coast passing game to get the ball to Hilton in space and let him fly. I thought Nate put it best on our Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast: Andrew Luck is going to make someone a star, and that guy is T.Y. Hilton.
Andre Brown, RB, Giants (10th, 8th): I'm on the David Wilson hype train as much as the next conductor, but Brown is going to be the goal-line back for a team that has had the fifth-most rushing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line the past three years. Brown averaged better than 5 yards a carry and was 8-of-12 in scoring inside an opponent's 5-yard line, and while I like Wilson a lot, I've also been known to be wrong. Brown is flex worthy with upside for more at a very nice price.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers (12th, 9th): When you've got Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger fighting over you, it means one of two things: You're a good wide receiver or you're the last piece of chicken. And the more I think of it, Ben and Tom don't really eat together all that often. And both are paid very well. In fact, if they were at a dinner together for some reason and there was a sudden run on chicken, both could afford to order another helping. I suppose they could be at someone's house and the host's chef ran out of chicken, but whose house would it be? And seriously, don't you think personal chefs prepare for that sort of thing? Like, they buy tons of extra chicken when football players are on the guest list? It's not their money; it's some rich quarterback's cash. They're buying the extra chicken. I guess what I am saying is that Emmanuel Sanders is another good fit for the Haley offense and will benefit from Wallace's absence and moving into Antonio Brown's role. And that I could go for some chicken right about now.
Chris Givens, WR, Rams and Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (13th, 10th): Two speedsters whom I have higher than the consensus ranks, they have big-play ability and questionable quarterbacks. I tend not to like guys who are big-play dependent, but in both cases, their talent is evident and the price is right. Because of the Rams drafting Tavon Austin, people seem to be forgetting that Givens had six games (out of 12 played) in which he had at least eight fantasy points, and now the Rams have improved the offensive line so that maybe a deep play or two could actually develop. Meanwhile, over the past five years, only the Colts attempted more passes of at least 15 yards downfield than Norv Turner's Chargers, and Turner is now the Browns' offensive coordinator. A suspension and immaturity issues have driven down Gordon's draft stock, but once he comes back, they're going to be throwing to him deep and often.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills (13th, 10th): He's not dead; he's just in Buffalo. There is too a difference. As much as I love Spiller, Jackson is going to get some work, too, including the goal-line stuff. They want to run in Buffalo. Apparently until people start losing their lunches.
Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown and Ben Tate, RBs, Ravens, Eagles and Texans (13th/14th, 10th/11th): Quite simply, these three need to be the first "true" handcuffs off the board, and I'd especially reach for them if I owned one of Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy or Arian Foster. Should something happen to one of those guys, such as an injury or Scott the Engineer drafting them, any one of these backups would be a top-10 guy.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos (13th, 8th): We -- and by we, I mean the collective ESPN ranks -- are way too low on Mr. Hillman. Hillman is currently running with the first team in practices, and while I believe (assuming health) Montee Ball will have the most fantasy points of any Broncos running back this season, Hillman is going to be involved. We'll see how this plays out, but at worst he's part of a running back by committee on one of the highest-scoring teams in football. At best, you just got a starting running back in the eighth.
Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (13th, 8th): Speaking of starting running backs ... he's going to be the guy on a team that will run, and he's going late.
Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers: (15th, 13th): I like Brown more than Floyd from a talent perspective, but both guys are being severely under-drafted, and that was before the injury to Danario Alexander.
Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions (16th, 11th): See Stafford, Matthew. Love Broyles late.
Others receiving votes:
Here are some guys who might not even be drafted in standard leagues but whom I like and I wanted to mention for slightly deeper leagues or in case some of the guys above are already gone in the late rounds.


Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: I mean, I know the guys ahead of him are iron men and everything, but ...
Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers: But only because I've seen Ryan Mathews play.
Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: Talented, and only Hakeem Nicks ahead of him. Value in deeper leagues as a No. 3 even if Nicks is healthy.
LaMichael James, RB, 49ers: Either they limit Gore's touches this year or he breaks down. Either way, James gets a shot.
The Backup Cowboys Running Back: Hopefully you have some clarity on this before you draft. As of this writing, I'd say Lance Dunbar has a slight edge over Joseph Randle, but it feels like they want Randle to win it. Whoever it is, I want.
Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders: I don't believe in McFadden staying healthy; Reece is a great pass-catcher, and every time he gets a chance, he produces. I know Rashad Jennings is there, too; I don't care. I just like Marcel Reece.
The Trendy Tight Ends: You won't get this far into the tight end list, but count me among the Jordan Cameron believers. I've been talking about Rob Housler for more than a year now, and he finally gets a QB who likes to throw to the tight end (Brandon Myers was fourth in TE targets last season with Palmer throwing him the ball). Also, Dwayne Allen is going to have a very nice year in Indy as Pep Hamilton installs more two-tight end sets, and Zach Sudfeld in New England is all sorts of interesting for a variety of reasons.
Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots: If you're going to gamble on a rookie, why not make it one who has Tom Brady throwing to him on a team with no deep threat?
EJ Manuel, QB, Bills: If he wins the starting job, he could easily be a top-15 guy or so, with rushing yards.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Not every pass can go to Brandon Marshall.
Kendall Wright, TE, Titans: I just like his talent.
Kai Forbath, K, Redskins: Sleeper kicker pick? Sleeper kicker pick. Missed only once all last season, good kicker on a good but not great offense.
[h=3]Players I Hate for 2013[/h]Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (going in the 1st round, I would take in the 2nd): Make no mistake, I think Calvin Johnson is going to have a crazy monster year. Love the entire Lions offense this year, think it was a fluke how much he was tackled inside the 5 and the 1 last year, I'm on board. But it's all about roster construction. You want a running back in the first round of a 10-team league, and Calvin Johnson is not a running back. That simple. I wrote all about what happens to your team if you take Calvin first in the Draft Day Manifesto, if you want to read more.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (1st, 2nd): Same thing here as with "Megatron." I actually love Rodgers as the No. 1 quarterback this year, and he was my No. 1 overall last year. But this is just about roster construction. In a 10-team league with standard scoring (four points for a touchdown pass), I want a running back, not a QB, in the first round. That changes in a deeper league or a league in which you get six points for a TD pass. But in general, assume that every quarterback is on the "hate" list just because of where they are going. The position is the deepest it has ever been.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons (2nd, 3rd): He's going one spot ahead of Brandon Marshall. That would be the same Brandon Marshall who had 64 more targets than Jones. I get that Jones is amazingly gifted, but he had seven games last season with single-digit fantasy points, six of which were six points or fewer. With everything back in place for the Falcons this season, there will be some monster games for Jones and some games in which it's all Roddy White. I just can't see spending a second-round pick on a guy at a deep position when he had only two games last season with more than six catches.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (3rd, 4th): Hey, he stayed healthy! For once! Look, he's great, but he also doesn't get any red zone looks (71 players had as many red zone targets as Johnson or more last season), he's never had double-digit touchdowns in his career and if DeAndre Hopkins is all they say he is, there might be even fewer balls to go around on a run-heavy team. Some scouts say he's lost a step, and while the Texans will continue to use play-action effectively, it's still a run, run, run offense that makes me nervous about taking him as a No. 1 receiver in the third round.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons (4th, 7th): Two first names is usually a crowd-pleaser, but the Falcons still run when in close, there are too many good quarterbacks out there, last season was close to the ceiling for Ryan and, as good a season as he had, at the end of the day, Ryan was less than two points per game better than Tony Romo, who is going in the eighth.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (4th, 7th): Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock! On a terrible team, has never played all 16 games, was bad last season even when healthy. Maybe the Raiders' going to more of a power-run scheme will help, because, let's face it, it can't get worse. I'm fine with a flier based on hope. Just not when you're bypassing solid guys such as Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush.


DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (5th, 6th): Why, yes, that is a photo of DeMarco Murray and Stephania Bell. Why do you ask?
Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins (5th, 7th): Yeah, yeah, Ryan Tannehill is improving and is actually pretty good on deep balls. I know. But going from Big Ben to Tannehill is a downgrade, no matter how you slice it. And starting after the Arizona game in 2011, when Antonio Brown emerged, Wallace has two, count 'em, two 100-yard games in his past 24. So feast or famine -- he had 11 games last season with single-digit fantasy points. His 54.2 percent reception-per-target rate last season was 61st in the NFL, and that's not going to improve with Tannehill. All the stats are heading in the wrong direction, and early reports out of Miami have Dolphins coaches less than impressed with Wallace.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers (6th, 9th): Forget the playoffs for a second. You know that once Colin Kaepernick took over, Davis wasn't even the best fantasy tight end on his own team last season, right? Delanie Walker had more fantasy points from Week 11 on. Now Walker is with the Titans, and I reserve the right to change my mind on this if the Niners do start lining Davis up wide, but he is just so inconsistent. The 49ers are still going to be a run-first team, and maybe with no Michael Crabtree, Davis will get a little more love, but check out his fantasy point totals in the regular season when Kaepernick took over: 14, zero, one, zero, one, two, zero. He'll have five or six great games this year and stink for the rest. And you know who else will have that kind of season? A ton of tight ends going six rounds later.
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts (7th, 10th): I laid out the majority of this case in 100 Facts, but while I think he's a great NFL quarterback who will actually have a really good football season, I don't see him having as good a fantasy season. Between a revamped defense (health, free agency, draft) and Chuck Pagano being there all year, I expect a better defense, meaning fewer shootouts. Sixty percent of Luck's passing yards last season came when he was behind. And he had five rushing touchdowns. In the past 10 seasons, the only quarterbacks with at least five rushing touchdowns one season who had five or more the following season were Cam Newton and Tim Tebow. Both of them had designed runs at the goal line that Luck just doesn't have. Pep Hamilton, with Luck as his QB in college, ran the ball 55 percent of the time. Bruce Arians ran it just 37 percent of the time. The more conservative offense and improved blocking should cut down on the 18 interceptions, five fumbles and seven dropped interceptions, but is it enough to move Luck into the top 10 fantasy QBs? I don't think so.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers (7th, 9th): Two first names? Always a crowd-pleaser. Two last names? Often a crowd-pleaser. Two names that could be either first names or last names? Never cross the streams! It's actually not a terrible price for him; he could easily be a top-20 running back, and I know a lot of folks like him because the hate has gone too far. And maybe it has. But what can I say? I'm a slave to tradition. Also, this is not a great offense or offensive line, and the coaching staff and front-office folks in San Diego these days are not the people who drafted him. No, those guys have been fired, in part because their former No. 1 pick has, like the rest of the team, been bad. Plus, hating on Ryan Mathews has paid off for me before, so I'm doubling down on him being terrible again. Feels like a safe bet.
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers (8th, 13th): Seven touchdowns. In two years. After "never pay for a career year," "never pay for a career postseason" is right up there in the fantasy tenets. (Another popular one: The minute you give up on and drop a player, your opponent will pick him up and use him against you.). With Boldin on a run-first team and on the downside of his career, the people thinking he is the new Crabtree are going to be very disappointed. He's not fast enough to beat defenders deep, and I'd expect Vernon Davis to get more red zone looks than him. And you know how I feel about Davis. Bleah. Daniel Radcliffe once called him "Fantasy Voldemort." You really gonna go against Harry Potter? I didn't think so.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (9th, 11th): I might have to seriously rethink this whole "two first names" thing. Too touchdown-dependent for his fantasy scoring. Did you know that on his way to being a top-10 fantasy tight end, Rudolph also had seven games with two or fewer fantasy points? As our player card notes, Rudolph's 3.7 yards-at-the-catch average was 32nd among qualified tight ends. He needs to score to have fantasy value, and if you read the Manifesto, you know touchdowns are hard to repeat and even harder to predict. Rudolph is like what I wrote about Davis. Lotta tight ends who will have some good games and crush you in others. Why waste a ninth-rounder on it when you can get the same soul-crushing performance a few rounds later?
Texans, D/ST, (9th, 15th): In a 10-team league, you take a defense in the 15th round. Not before. Especially not the Texans' defense, which is good but not at the level of a Seattle or a San Francisco. Every year I have to do a defense. ...
Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots (10th, 16th): ... And every year, I also have to hate on a kicker, even though it's been statistically proved that the difference between the No. 1 kicker and the No. 10 is maybe a point or two a game. And that's if you can predict who will be the No. 1 kicker. Every year there's some guy like Scott DePace who won't listen to reason and drafts a kicker early, but if you won't trust me, how about Blair Walsh, last season's No. 1 fantasy kicker? The official kicker of the 06010 podcast, Walsh came on the show last year to explain that he plays fantasy football and even he doesn't draft a kicker until the last round. Meanwhile, defenses tend to fluctuate from year to year and defensive touchdowns are impossible to predict. As our positional preview notes, 40 percent of the defenses that were drafted in the top 10 last year actually finished in the top 10. I like Seattle and San Francisco as fantasy defenses, but then again, I liked the Ravens, Eagles and Jets at this time last year, and none of them finished in the upper half. You can stream defenses so easily in a 10-team league that it's not worth anything more than the second-to-last round pick to snag your Week 1 D/ST.
Jared Cook, TE, Rams (12th, 16th): Wake me when we're done waiting for this guy.
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans (12th, Not gonna be on my team): Unless you get points for handing off, he should be undrafted in one-QB, 10-team leagues.
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (14th, Nope): Another guy I wouldn't draft. Losing his best wide receiver from last season, Danario Alexander, is only one of many reasons. He's going ahead of guys such as Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, all of whom will have better seasons than Rivers and have more upside. One year is a fluke; two is a trend. Three years, and I have to ask, why do you hate your team?
There you have it. This season's Love/Hate is in the books, for better or for worse. And I'm pretty sure the next note I get from Howard will be a restraining order. But I'm willing to live with that.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]30-year-old RBs to trust[/h][h=3]While many experience declines, Jackson, Gore, Sproles poised for success[/h]
By Brian Gramling | Special to ESPN.com

Most football fans realize that a 30-year-old running back doesn't have much time left. They point to Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, Jerome Bettis and LaDainian Tomlinson as long-time fantasy football monsters who all declined at (or before) the age of 30. I've read loads of historical data with charts and graphs to support the decline, and this table compiled by the Sultan of Stat, my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, most succinctly shows this decline really hits around 28 or 29. These numbers represent the averages of all 47 running backs to score at least 1,250 career fantasy points, by age. Active players are not counted on this list.

Age	Gms	Fantasy Pts	Fantasy PPG
22	10.1	112.4	11.2
23	12.7	151.8	11.9
24	14.4	188.1	13.1
25	13.5	189.6	14.1
26	14.6	203.3	14.0
27	14.4	193.0	13.4
28	13.3	168.8	12.7
29	13.0	153.4	11.8
30	11.7	118.9	10.1
31	10.2	92.6	9.1
32	8.3	60.0	7.2
33	5.8	35.7	6.2

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I'm not one to discount such telling information that age 30 signals a decline in playing time, total fantasy production and fantasy points per game. However, I can't just dismiss the three 30-year-olds ranked among the top-20 running backs in the ESPN.com preseason rankings -- Steven Jackson, Frank Gore and Darren Sproles.

Obviously modern-day football players still take a beating on a weekly basis, but unlike running backs before 1990, they do have a bye week to recover, often toward the middle of the season. Also, nutrition, fitness and training regimens are much more advanced these days, helping players to recover more quickly from injuries. When USA Today asked Jackson how the age 30 will affect him, his response was: "That's laughable to me. This is not the '70s or the '80s, when it was just hard-nosed football. The game has changed. Certain people in certain generations do well. Why not me?"

Well said, Mr. Jackson. The game has certainly changed, becoming a much more pass-happy league for sure. Last season, there were nearly as many 1,000-yard wide receivers (19) as there were RBs with 1,000 total yards from scrimmage (20). Compare that to 2010 and 2011 when 50 RBs totaled 1,000 yards and just 33 WRs reached 1,000 receiving yards.

So with the 1,000 yards from scrimmage baseline in mind to determine what a top-20 fantasy running back should produce this season, consider this. In the past 10 years (2003-12), there have been 24 seasons of 1,000 yards from scrimmage by running backs who were at least 30 years old before that season ended:

[h=3]Most Yds From Scrimmage, Age 30 or Older
Single Season, Past 10 Years[/h]

Player	Year	Age	Team	Games	Scrim Yds
Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	16	2390
Tiki Barber	2006	31	NYG	16	2127
Priest Holmes	2003	30	KC	16	2110
Curtis Martin	2004	31	NYJ	16	1942
Corey Dillon	2004	30	NE	15	1738
Warrick Dunn	2005	30	ATL	16	1636
Curtis Martin	2003	30	NYJ	16	1570
Thomas Jones	2008	30	NYJ	16	1519
Thomas Jones	2009	31	NYJ	16	1460
Fred Taylor	2006	30	JAC	15	1388
Ricky Williams	2009	32	MIA	16	1385
Fred Jackson	2011	30	BUF	10	1376
Warrick Dunn	2006	31	ATL	16	1310
LaDainian Tomlinson	2010	31	NYJ	15	1282
Fred Taylor	2007	31	JAC	15	1260
Willis McGahee	2011	30	DEN	15	1250
Mike Anderson	2005	32	DEN	15	1226
Eddie George	2003	30	TEN	16	1194
Warrick Dunn	2008	33	TB	15	1116
Marshall Faulk	2003	30	STL	11	1108
Marshall Faulk	2004	31	STL	14	1084
Priest Holmes	2004	31	KC	8	1079
Emmitt Smith	2004	35	ARI	15	1042
Thomas Jones	2010	32	KC	16	1018

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While three of these 15 players are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame -- Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk and Emmitt Smith -- there are some others here with virtually no chance of ever donning the yellow blazer, such as Mike Anderson, Fred Jackson, Priest Holmes and Thomas Jones, who accomplished this feat three times in his 30s. And while injuries are certainly more prevalent to older backs, consider that half of these players were able to reach four figures without playing a full 16 games. By the law of averages, two or three such players should reach that mark this season, something that both Jackson and Gore did last season, with Sproles falling just 89 yards short of the mark. The other significant 30-something among fantasy backs, DeAngelo Williams, gained 924 yards from scrimmage last season, so he could certainly dent this list as well.


Let's take a look at Jackson first. His career has been remarkably consistent, topping 1,000 rushing yards and 1,250 total yards in eight straight seasons despite logging 16 games in only three of these eight campaigns. Since entering the NFL in 2004, he has 217 more carries than any other player, averaging 266 carries per season and 18.3 per game. He has also caught 407 passes (3.1 per game), putting him at 21.4 touches per contest.

Despite this boatload of on-field action, Jackson got just 15 carries inside the 10-yard line last season, which was a big reason he finished with a career-low-tying four scores. The man he's replacing in Atlanta's more potent offense, Michael Turner, had 26 carries inside the 10 last season, which is how he miraculously scored 10 touchdowns. This is why Jackson has a great chance to reach double-digit TDs for the first time since 2006.

As for Gore, his workload has also been abundant in his excellent eight-year career. Since he played his first down for the San Francisco 49ers in 2005, Gore has the third-most carries in the NFL (1,911) behind only Jackson and Thomas Jones. Tack on his 315 career receptions and you have a player with a hefty 19.2 touches per game. Like Jackson, Gore has also been a consistent source of fantasy production, tallying at least eight TDs in four of his past five seasons, with the exception being 2010 when he missed five games. Gore is not just a TD-only guy, though, as he averaged 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) last season. This included an amazing 5.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter (54 carries), with many of those carries coming when his team had already sealed a victory; he produced 5.9 YPC on 40 carries when his team was ahead by 9-16 points.

According to ProFootballReference.com, Jackson and Gore are very similar to one another in terms of "quality and shape" to their careers. The two other similar RBs to this pair in the past decade are Corey Dillon and Jerome Bettis. Dillon (6-foot-1, 225 pounds at age 29) is an interesting comparison to Jackson (6-foot-2, 240 pounds). In similar fashion to Jackson's low TD total in his final season with the St. Louis Rams, Dillon scored a career-low two TDs in 13 games in his last hurrah with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2003 at age 29 before joining the New England Patriots, racking up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns the following year. He finished his career with 914 and 959 yards from scrimmage with the Pats in 2005 and 2006, respectively. I'm sure Jackson fantasy owners wouldn't complain if his next three seasons played out like Dillon's.

I see Gore (5-foot-9, 217 pounds) as more similar to Bettis (5-foot-11, 250 pounds at age 29), not in stature but as a compact runner boosting fantasy scoring with a multitude of red-zone opportunities, rushing 35 times in the red zone last year. It's hard to be less of a receiving threat than Bettis late in his career, but Gore's declined involvement in the passing game has been rather dramatic, making those red-zone touches that much more necessary to maintain his fantasy value. After averaging 3.6 receptions per game in his first five seasons as a full-time starter, Gore has averaged a paltry 1.4 per game the past two seasons combined.

Bettis was a player who fell off the map from his age-29 season (1,072 rushing yards, 4.8 YPC) to age 30 (666 rushing yards, 3.6 YPC), but was still a serviceable fantasy RB2 in his first three seasons after turning 30, racking up 29 touchdowns and an average of 869 yards from scrimmage. Nothing in fantasy football, or life for that matter, is guaranteed, but I'll definitely like my chances with an RB2 that will reach 1,000 total yards and work as the top goal-line back, like Jackson and Gore will this season.

Comparing Sproles to a past player is difficult, as he doesn't have too many equals as a running back whose fantasy value has come mostly as a pass-catching threat, particularly in the past five years. In the past two seasons, Sproles was targeted 215 times, catching 161 of those balls. Dating all the way back to 1990, only three other NFL running backs tallied 75-plus receptions in an age-30 season: Charlie Garner (91 catches in 2002), Larry Centers (81 in 2000, 80 in 2001) and Herschel Walker (75 in 1993).

Centers was a pass-catching monster in the mid-'90s, but he finished his career with just 3.6 yards per carry. Sproles has averaged 5.2 yards per carry in his career and plays within a New Orleans Saints offense that attempted 41.9 passes per game last season. Sproles also has a lot less wear and tear on his 5-foot-6, 190-pound frame than most 30-year-olds. He has had 140 touches from the line of scrimmage in a season just once in his career (173 in 2011, his first season with Sean Payton and the Saints). As long as QB Drew Brees stays healthy -- and remember Payton is back in charge after a year away -- Sproles is a strong fantasy RB2 in PPR formats and a lower-end RB2/solid flex play in 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Giovani Bernard's fantasy value[/h][h=3]In a split backfield, Bernard has more value in 2014 than this season[/h]By Field Yates | ESPN Insider

The 2013 offseason brought closure -- at least in a couple of ways -- to the already infamous Carson Palmer-to-Oakland trade that altered the landscape for a pair of franchises.

Raiders fans don't need to be reminded of their depleted draft capital following the Palmer exchange, nor will Palmer take any more snaps under center in Oakland, as he was shipped to the Arizona Cardinals for a pair of late-round draft picks in early April.

The Bengals, meanwhile, had already turned the keys over on offense to Andy Dalton before the Palmer deal (the veteran had entered temporary retirement), and also managed to pluck a pair of upside prospects with the draft choices netted in the transaction.

The latter of those picks came in the second round of this year's draft, used on North Carolina running back Giovani Bernard, considered by many to be the best player at his position in this year's class (he was the first running back taken, No. 37 overall).

The initial plan for Bernard, at least according to his offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden, was to engage in a timeshare of sorts with incumbent starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis, "He can be a 10-, 15-carry guy, catch eight balls, whatever it is, to help us out and make us more diverse," Gruden said in May.

Bernard reinforced as much to the NFL Network later that month, saying, "I think it's more so a complementary kind of thing. I think we are both going to help each other out."

As Bernard has had the chance to prove himself to his coaches, the narrative has evolved, suggesting that he could be in line for a bigger role than originally perceived. So what is Bernard's fantasy value both this season and in the future?
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"Having evaluated him and watched every game he played this year and had a chance to work him out, and having spent a lot of time with him," Bengals running backs coach Hue Jackson said of Bernard, "he has that skill set where I think he could play and be an every-down player."

The take-home from this all is -- in time -- Bernard will be the Bengals' starting running back. How soon he assumes that role is another question.


Green-Ellis, nicknamed "The Law Firm" during his time in New England, finished 19th among running backs in standard fantasy scoring in 2012, despite a career-high in carries, catches and yards.

The rub? His diminished touchdown total, as he went from 13 and 11 in 2010 and 2011, respectively, to just a half dozen last season (The average length of those six touchdowns? Just 2 yards). Green-Ellis was a borderline RB1 during the 2010 season, eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing to go along with his robust touchdown total. But, aside from that statistical anomaly, he's proven much closer to a low-RB2 or even a flex play.

And yet, despite his low ceiling and lack of explosive plays (his longest of 181 carries in 2011 went for just 18 yards), Green-Ellis is ranked ahead of Bernard entering the 2013 season, with a steady stream of logic behind that thinking.

Green-Ellis redefined dependability during his time as a Patriot, fumbling precisely zero times during four pro seasons. He got a case of the butterfingers, albeit a small one, during his first year in Cincinnati, uncharacteristically losing a pair of fumbles.

And yet, his toughness, ability to tote a heavy workload (he finished eighth in total carries last season) and dependability make him a reasonable bet to once again see 150-175 carries during the 2013 season. Assuming he continues to hog the goal-line carries (as he should), Green-Ellis is a sufficient flex play entering the season.

But back to Bernard, who has been generating buzz, both among the Bengals coaches and fantasy football owners setting up their draft boards.

Put on the North Carolina tape from last season and it's easy to see what the Bengals coaches are witnessing in person now. Bernard is an elusive, shifty, dual-threat back who catches the football with ease. Though his timed-speed was just sufficient at the combine (4.53 in the 40), he has big-play ability and won't often be caught from behind when he gets a step on a defender in the open field.

He has an arsenal of tackling-avoiding maneuvers -- including a dependable spin move -- that allows him to break through tight spaces, and some power despite his 5-foot-8 frame. Not only is Bernard an adept receiver, he's an explosive returner who has the confidence to flag down even errant punts and attempt a return. Jackson, by the way, also recently noted that Bernard could align from a receiver position at times this season, paving the way for both backs to be on the field at the same time.

As mentioned, Green-Ellis is likely to play a prominent role in the Bengals running game this season, the second of three years on his contract. If Bernard, as we expect, provides the dynamic element from the backfield the team has recently lacked, he should see an uptick in his workload as the season wears, setting up at least a running-back-by-committee approach.

Looking back at the 2012 season, only one team had two running backs finish among the top 27 scorers: the Patriots, with Danny Woodhead joining Stevan Ridley (ninth). Andre Brown, 29th, and Joique Bell, 30th, were other running backs to join their teammates among the top 30 backs in standard scoring leagues.

Point is, it's rare for the second-stringer in a split-workload backfield to rise above flex status, even in a PPR league. So for now, banking on Bernard as more than a flex is banking on him winning the starting job from Green-Ellis sooner rather than later. Conceivable? Yes. Likely? Hard to say.

One factor working against Bernard is that Green-Ellis is a strong bet to earn goal-line carries. That's an area in which he's always been productive, and he earned 14 of the Bengals' 21 goal-line carries (from the 5-yard line or closer) in 2012.

So what to make of Bernard as your draft rolls around the corner? He's comfortably sitting at 36th in our ESPN.com Fantasy Staff rankings, meshed among the likes of Brown, Shane Vereen, Vick Ballard and other time-sharers for their respective teams.

When flushing out your roster after the run on clear-cut starters is complete, Bernard is the type of player I'd have no problem buying low and hoping to aim high with. At best, he's a starter with explosive upside; at worst, he's a compelling flex play.

For those looking through a longer-range telescope, Bernard ranks among the top rookies for dynasty leagues. We recently examined the merits of Broncos back Montee Ball, arguing that the case can be made for Ball, Bernard and even Marcus Lattimore as the top rookie running back to invest in for your dynasty league.

Bernard is perhaps less talented than Lattimore, but Lattimore's recent major knee injury gives owners caution. He can do more and edges Ball in dynamic ability, though Ball looks primed to start sooner than Bernard.

You can pound the table for any of the three as the top rookie runner in dynasty leagues, particularly if you can afford to wait for 2014 to feel more comfortable about Bernard or Lattimore as a starter (Lattimore may need to wait even longer in a crowded San Francisco backfield).

Given that Green-Ellis' contract doesn't contain any guaranteed money for the 2014 season, he's an expendable commodity following this year if the Bengals see enough during Bernard's inaugural campaign.

So while it's still too soon to count on inserting Bernard into your starting lineup for this season, keep his name on the radar as a rising commodity entering 2014. If his time comes sooner, those who are shrewd enough to use a mid-to-late round pick on Bernard this season will be rewarded.