Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

HacheMan · Aug 8, 2013

[h=1]Who will sustain a fantasy spike?[/h][h=3]Which players with a 20 percent yardage leap can maintain that increase?[/h]
By Chris Sprow | ESPN Insider

It's rare that I get to jump into the fantasy realm, but 'tis the season, and this doubles as a look at key fantasy players and an education in just how hard it is to predict sustainability. If you think of the times you've won a fantasy league, your final roster was almost surely an imperfect blend of (A) guys you relied on who lived up to expectations, (B) good health and (C) a couple of players who outperformed expectations by a fair margin. Think of Sidney Rice in 2009, Jamaal Charles in 2010 or Jordy Nelson in 2011. Each could have been the difference (I still love you, Jamaal) in a fantasy winner; a late-round grab that performs to the level of an RB1 or WR1.

In each of those cases, however, we saw a player who could crush you the following season if you bet too big. Rice got dinged and fell off by over 1,000 yards; Charles got hurt in Week 1 and was out for the year; Nelson dipped by 25 catches and over 500 yards. With that in mind, where do you have Reggie Wayne this year? Was the leap from Curtis Painter to Andrew Luck the difference, or do you assume a dip for a 34-year-old who just spiked in totals by about 40 percent?

Let's make some predictions on the 2013 Spike's class.

A few rules:

1. Players must be ranked within the top 20 in yardage by position for 2012. Yardage is a better indicator balance of real and fantasy performance than the alternative, which is total fantasy points. It better incorporates usage. Points can be skewed by bad luck on touchdowns (and TD vultures). Consider Calvin Johnson in 2011 versus Calvin Johnson in 2012. The 2012 version might have been a better receiver, but had bad touchdown luck. (The Lions really should have a statue of Megatron being tackled at the 1-yard line to memorialize their 2012 season.)

2. Spikes must top 20 percent. Meaning the yardage jump was at least 20 percent more than the previous season.

3. No exceptions for injuries … except at QB. Health is an NFL skill. Just as you choose fantasy players based on a track record of health, teams value them based on their best assumptions of health. But at QB, only Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer saw yardage spikes of 20 percent or more in 2012, and Bradford and Schaub jumped purely on health, Palmer because he actually played football. (Colin Kaepernick doesn't qualify based on No. 1 and almost No. 4.)
4. No rookies. There must be a previous NFL performance from which a player can spike.
With that said, let's take a look.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
The running back yardage combines total running PLUS receiving yardage, just as it does in fantasy football.

Jamaal Charles
2012 yards: 1,745 | 2011 yards: 92 | Spike: 1,896.7%

Sustainable: No. Three reasons. One, last year Charles carried the ball 280 times. That total is 50 carries more than his previous career high (2010). Two, new head coach Andy Reid has never had a runner carry the ball more than 280 times, except for 1999, when Duce Staley did during Reid's first season in Philadelphia -- that team went 5-11. It's notable because Reid from there basically coached winning teams, and didn't allow a runner to pile up a ton of carries even as his team milked leads. He simply loves to throw the ball. Third, the Chiefs drafted Knile Davis to help take some of the load off Charles who, while a brilliant runner, should never be confused for a 300-carry workhorse. If healthy, Charles should get close, but I wouldn't assume he'll top his 2012 total.

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Stevan Ridley
2012 yards: 1,314 | 2011 yards: 444 | Spike: 196.0%

Sustainable: Yes. Not only did Ridley establish himself as a clear No. 1 for the Patriots last season, he didn't have an unusually great year in terms of yards per carry -- his 4.4 yards per rush attempt tied for 20th among qualifying backs. The Patriots also could be more reliant on the run this year -- I didn't say "establishing the run" -- as they look to create space for a new group of pass-catchers. As well, Ridley could benefit from running with the lead if New England is more reticent to throw while ahead with those receivers.

Adrian Peterson
2012 yards: 2,314 | 2011 yards: 1,109 | Spike: 108.7%

Sustainable: No. Aside from All Day, six other RBs have run for more than 2,000 yards in a single season. Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson and O.J. Simpson averaged 1,071 yards in the following year. Secondly, Peterson piled up an extraordinary 1,184 yards on runs of 15-plus yards last season, and he had 40 such runs, 16 more than any other back. That's the definition of an outlier, and will be hard to replicate based on both luck and the fact that defenses will be more prepared than ever to force Christian Ponder to beat them. That said, even with, say, a 20 percent dip, Peterson is still a good No. 1 pick in fantasy leagues. There's also the very real chance we're dealing with a superhuman, or at least a full-fledged Jedi.

C.J. Spiller
2012 yards: 1,703 | 2011 yards: 830 | Spike: 105.2%

Sustainable: Yes. Spiller won't be confused with Christian Okoye, even though his per-carry stats look like something out of Tecmo Bowl. Problem is, in 2012 Spiller carried the ball 75 fewer times than even the similarly built Charles. Secondly, the Bills would be wise to target Spiller as a receiver more than the 55 times he was targeted in 2012. He's a perfect example of where checkdowns can turn into touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis
2012 yards: 1,198 | 2011 yards: 826 | Spike: 45.0%

Sustainable: No. The Law Firm's 2012 totals weren't that prodigious, but I'd expect a drop in production given the presence of Gio Bernard. Bernard was drafted specifically to give the Bengals a better pass-catching threat out of the backfield, which could limit Green-Ellis' roll in obvious passing situations.

Ahmad Bradshaw
2012 yards: 1,260 | 2011 yards: 926 | Spike: 36.1%

Sustainable: No. Bradshaw was picked up by the Colts to supplement a backfield that already includes the now-established Vick Ballard as well as Donald Brown, and he derives a great deal of value from his ability as a blocker on pass plays, where he's one of the NFL's best among running backs. He'll get his touches, but 1,260 total yards is a bit more than we'd expect.

Marshawn Lynch
2012 yards: 1,786 | 2011 yards: 1,416 | Spike: 26.1%

Sustainable: No. Lynch can probably handle it -- Beast Mode is still just 27 entering his seventh NFL season -- but he has 600 carries over the past two seasons, and Seattle drafted Christine Michael who, along with Robert Turbin, will help ease the load. And remember, the Seahawks are a lot more comfortable throwing the ball than they were entering Week 1 in 2012. This offense has evolved and doesn't need the same from Lynch.

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
A good mix of veterans and youth.

Andre Johnson
2012 yards: 1,598 | 2011 yards: 492 | Spike: 224.8%

Sustainable: No. Don't expect a big drop-off, but Johnson is 32, was mostly healthy last season after missing a total of 10 games in 2010 and 2011, and was targeted a whopping 61 more times than any other Houston pass-catcher in 2012. He's still great, but 2012 also quietly represented Johnson's career high in receiving yards, and DeAndre Hopkins was drafted in Round 1 to help take some pressure off. Hopkins is actually a reason Johnson should still succeed, but a dip is a reasonable expectation.

Demaryius Thomas
2012 yards: 1,434 | 2011 yards: 551 | Spike: 160.3%

Sustainable: Yes. Thomas seems to have experienced the effect of a slight upgrade at quarterback, is coming into his own as a technician, and was targeted at just the 13th-highest rate in the NFL despite putting up the fourth-highest receiving yardage total. Even with the presence of Wes Welker, Thomas should get his share of targets. (Welker should, in fact, open up space for Thomas.) Last year, no receiver in the NFL delivered a higher passer rating on balls thrown to him than Thomas, at 126.2, per Pro Football Focus.

Brian Hartline
2012 yards: 1,083 | 2011 yards: 549 | Spike: 97.3%

Sustainable: Yes. Even with Mike Wallace around, it's not unreasonable to think Hartline can crack the 1,000-yard mark again. In fact, Walllace should get Hartline some better matchups, just as he has fellow wide receivers in Pittsburgh over the past two seasons. Combine that with a fair expectation of increased efficiency and accuracy from Ryan Tannehill and it could be a repeat year of effective sleeper status for Hartline.

Eric Decker
2012 yards: 1,064 | 2011 yards: 612 | Spike: 73.9%

Sustainable: No. As prodigious as Manning is, the last time he had three different pass-catchers pile up 1,000 yards was in 2004. Decker should still pile up a decent total, but I'd expect a slight dip in yardage. Welker will get some of his targets, and he's not the deep threat that Thomas is.

Lance Moore
2012 yards: 1,041 | 2011 yards: 627 | Spike: 66.3%

Sustainable: Yes. He has been overshadowed, but is a favorite of Drew Brees, and New Orleans will throw it all over.

Dez Bryant
2012 yards: 1,382 | 2011 yards: 928 | Spike: 48.9%

Sustainable: Yes. He increased his target total by 35 last season from 103 to 138, and was targeted no fewer than six times in any of the Cowboys' last seven games of 2012, a period in which he became one of the NFL's toughest covers. Last season, Dallas QBs had a traditional passer rating of 123.2 when throwing to Bryant, behind only Decker and Thomas. What that creates is a situation where a player sees benefit-of-the-doubt targets while decently covered. Bryant gets the benefit now.

Reggie Wayne
2012 yards: 1,355 | 2011 yards: 960 | Spike: 41.2%

Sustainable: No. I don't expect Wayne to dip in terms of performance, I expect a shift in the offense. Pep Hamilton, Indy's new offensive coordinator who comes from Stanford, loves to use his tight ends. Last season, Cardinal tight end Zach Ertz led the team in receptions by 36 catches. The year before, no Stanford wide receiver caught more than 56 passes, and Coby Fleener -- now a Colt and a tight end on that 2011 Stanford team -- averaged six more yards per catch than the leading receiver. Wayne will have a big role, he'll just be relied upon a little less as Indy diversifies and builds the offense from the inside out.

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]None of the following names are fantasy studs, but they'll get the job done.

Brandon Myers
2012 yards: 806 | 2011 yards: 151 | Spike: 81.3%

Sustainable: Yes. This is a leap of faith, but if Myers becomes a favorite target at tight end, it's possible he could come close or maybe even surpass that 806-yard total. Think of what kind of matchups he might see when defenses have to focus on Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and the emerging Rueben Randle. It's going to be interesting to see how Myers is deployed. He may not become a traveling emcee with Eli, but they could form a bond.

Martellus Bennett
2012 yards: 626 | 2011 yards: 144 | Spike: 77.0%

Sustainable: Yes. Jay Cutler loves to use tight ends and work the windows in the middle of the field. Kellen Davis got 44 targets last season for the Bears. Bennett should exceed that, and help soak up some of the ridiculous 194 throws directed at Brandon Marshall last season.

Heath Miller
2012 yards: 816 | 2011 yards: 631 | Spike: 22.7%

Sustainable: No -- but that's only because Miller is currently recovering from a torn ACL. When fully healthy, Miller will absorb more targets given the absence of Wallace, and Pittsburgh hates to take him off the field anyway because he's a tremendous pass-blocker. He saw over 1,000 snaps last season. If he is healthy, I'd say he'll sustain it, which is a reason to grab him late.

Jermaine Gresham
2012 yards: 737 | 2011 yards: 596 | Spike: 19.2%

Sustainable: Yes. Surprised? I mean, didn't the Bengals draft Tyler Eifert in part because of dissatisfaction with Gresham? Well, we've now seen plenty of cases where teams with two good tight ends get plenty of production from both; cracking 700 yards again isn't exactly a leap of faith on a player of Gresham's great physical skills; and Eifert's presence (not to mention that A.J. Green fella) will only open up more space for Gresham. (And yes, I broke the 20 percent rule, barely, but Gresham's worth spending a few extra pixels on.)

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2013

[h=1]Valuing fantasy's intriguing RBs[/h][h=3]Steven Jackson poised for a monster year in Atlanta[/h]By Tim Hasselbeck | ESPN Insider

As I got ready to throw my first go route at the 2001 NFL scouting combine, I looked to my left and saw an unfamiliar wideout dressed in long yellow spandex pants, lined up ready to take off. Playing on the East Coast for Boston College, there were a number of players at the combine with whom I wasn't familiar, and this guy was one of them. I'd never met him, had never seen him play before and didn't know how fast he would be. About five seconds later, he was slowing his sprint down to a jog in response to my underthrown pass.
That wideout? Chad Johnson (or Ochocinco, as he was once known). While I should have known by the way he was dressed that he was probably going to be faster than anyone with whom I had played in college, it was the unknown that doomed me (and probably had some scouts thinking I didn't have much of an arm).
It's a similar feeling of the unknown that I get in preparation for my fantasy drafts later this month when taking a look at some of the top running backs. Some are joining a new team, entering a new role or facing new competition. Here are my takes on these guys, after the lessons I learned from underthrowing Chad Johnson.

[h=3]1. Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons[/h]

In the 2012 season, Jackson and departed Falcons RB Michael Turner put up similar fantasy point totals (150 for Jackson, 146 for Turner), and consider that Jackson did this in a much less advantageous situation. Due to the supporting cast, the Rams were in scoring position less (as evidenced by Turner's 10 touchdowns to Jackson's four). Jackson had only four carries last season from the 3-yard-line or closer, compared to 17 such opportunities for Turner; in fact, from 2009 through 2012, Turner led the NFL in carries from that range (61). The Falcons like to get the running backs involved near the goal line, and now it'll be Jackson enjoying all of those goal-line touches with Matt Ryan & Co.
But Jackson is also a great pass-catcher. In the 2006 season, he had 90 catches. 90! Meanwhile, Turner has never had more than 19 in a season. Atlanta will move Jackson around to get the best matchups for him, and that won't be hard considering some of its other offensive firepower. Put it all together and it's not crazy to think that he can put up 1,000 yards rushing, 40 receptions and double-digits in touchdowns (a feat he hasn't achieved since that 2006 campaign).
There has been a lot of love for Jackson in ESPN drafts thus far. On average, he has been going late in the second round as the 11th RB off the board, about half a round later than LeSean McCoy. That may be too rich for some people, but not for me.

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[h=3]2. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans[/h]

To put it bluntly, the addition of Shonn Greene is a huge blow to CJ's value. Despite all of Johnson's skills in the open field, the Titans don't believe that he is a capable short-yardage and goal-line runner. He had just four carries from the 3-yard-line or closer last season (and just one TD), as the team would opt instead for Jamie Harper in those spots. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this means that Johnson won't even be on the field in some situations -- including those oh-so-important ones near the goal line. Don't get me wrong: Johnson is still an explosive runner who could have a top-5 RB season in fantasy, but he could also turn out to be a Flex play most weeks.
The key point will be whether the addition of Greene will serve as a wake-up call for Johnson. One of the ways that he could improve his game is eliminating the negative plays caused by always looking for the big run that might not be there. Having a strong player behind you can inspire that improvement, especially if that other player is being paid like a legitimate contributor. (Tennessee gave Greene a three-year, $10 million contract this offseason.)
I'm generally staying away from CJ in my fantasy leagues, but there does come a point in the second half of Round 3 where the gamble could be worth it due to his upside.

[h=3]3. Montee Ball, Denver Broncos[/h]

Before we get to Ball, let's have a look at what Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno did last year in the Broncos' offense (aka Year 1 of the Peyton Manning experience in Denver). If we combine Moreno and McGahee from a season ago -- both missed some time due to injuries -- they scored close to 200 fantasy points while getting around 20 touches per start.
My takeaway from that? The running back in this offense is going to get the ball a fair amount of the time, and he will get to run against good looks. Peyton doesn't run plays into a stacked box -- or at bad angles for his offensive linemen -- and this eliminates negative runs. Did Moreno suddenly get better out of the blue last season, or was he in a better situation to succeed? I'd go with the latter.
Moreno and Ronnie Hillman are still around, but the early reports on Ball have been quite positive. He has shown better hands than some scouts believed he had and offers a much bigger frame than Hillman, which means he'll likely be the man on the field in red zone and goal-line situations even if he isn't the early-down starter at the beginning of the season.
Ball has been going in the late fourth or early fifth round in most drafts so far, and I think he's well worth the investment even a little earlier than that.

[h=3]4. David Wilson, New York Giants[/h]

There will be no excuse if Wilson does not end up as a top-15 RB in fantasy at the end of the season. He'll play in most regular situations for the Giants' offense, and as long as he shows a willingness to improve in pass protection, he won't be leaving the field on third down.
The Giants hope Wilson will be a Tiki Barber-type player in their offense; Tiki wasn't much of a pass protector, but he knew whom to block and gave great effort, which kept him on the field on third down and gave him more opportunities for big plays. The Giants have a good RB coach in Jerald Ingram; during his nine-year tenure with the team, it's gotten eight 1,000-yard seasons from the running backs. Ingram should be able to get Wilson up to speed in pass protection and other facets of the position.
Andre Brown is back in the mix, and he was a more productive fantasy RB (when healthy) last season than Wilson. Brown is also a big, strong back who is already very good in pass protection. But the Giants aren't convinced Brown can stay healthy this season, and that's why Wilson is the guy to own in fantasy. I see him landing in the top 15 at the end of the season, and he should be drafted accordingly.

[h=3]5. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots[/h]

Typically, the Patriots' situation at running back is somewhat muddled, but this year it is as clear as it's been in quite some time, especially after the departure of Danny Woodhead. Sure, this is generally a passing-oriented offense -- I think we'll see Tom Brady throw the ball more than 600 times -- and sure, the team will continue to rotate in multiple running backs, but Ridley will be the featured back, at least as much as there is a featured back in a Brady-led offense.
Fellow third-year pro Shane Vereen will play a fair amount this season and will help to fill the hole created by Aaron Hernandez's departure, but the guy who will take the majority of the snaps will be Ridley.
Last season, Ridley had double-digit carries every week except one (against San Francisco, and nobody ran the ball that much against San Francisco), and he will continue to benefit from the fast tempo of the offense and its ability to move the ball up the field with relative ease. Double-digit touchdowns are certainly a possibility again, as he'll play a huge role operating in the red zone, and a healthy increase in yardage -- I'm thinking around 1,450 -- would not be a surprise either. I have little doubt that Ridley will be a top 10 back again this season.

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2013

[h=1]Bullish on Colin Kaepernick[/h][h=3]With a full offseason as the starting QB under his belt, expect more growth[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Where does Colin Kaepernick rank with Michael Crabtree out?

When San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree suffered a torn Achilles tendon on May 21, fantasy players took notice. Not only had Crabtree blossomed into a legitimate No. 1 receiver, he was clearly the 49ers' only real receiving option once Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting quarterback. This injury now has Kaepernick's fantasy value in question, so let's analyze how much Crabtree meant to the 49ers' offense last season once Kaepernick was installed as the starter, and how other changes may shape the offense.

Last season, when Kaepernick was the starter, Crabtree amassed 41 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. He caught 67 percent of his targets, which was surpassed by only five wide receivers who had at least 30 receptions during that same time period (Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and Dez Bryant). He was particularly productive out of the slot, gaining 278 yards when lining up in that role. His 41 grabs during that time period accounted for 59 percent of the catches made by 49ers wide receivers, with none of the other wideouts surpassing 13 catches. Obviously, Crabtree's level of production was significant and would be difficult to replace on most teams. This year's 49ers are not most teams.

Kaepernick enters the season as the unquestioned starter in San Francisco. This presents the obvious benefit of him having a full offseason of repetitions with the rest of the 49ers starters, which should result in greater familiarity with all of his weapons. Many speculate that it was this lack of familiarity with tight end Vernon Davis that led to Davis' virtual disappearance from box scores once Kaepernick was installed as the starter.

While speculative, the fact that Davis' reception rate per route run plummeted from 14 percent to below 9 percent surely indicates there is truth to that assumption. Furthermore, that the rate improved significantly to better than 16 percent during the playoffs, which followed a 49ers bye in the wild-card round, only promotes that idea. Because early reports out of training camp indicate Davis is continuing to be a focal point of the offense -- with the coaching staff frequently lining Davis up as a wide receiver -- it's safe to assume that the 2013 version of Davis will be much closer to 2012 playoff form than that of the regular season.

Davis won't be the only receiving option. Anquan Boldin was acquired via trade this offseason, and he couldn't be a better fit to replace Crabtree, who is 25. Although Boldin is 32, his size (6-foot-1, 220 pounds) is almost identical to Crabtree's (6-1, 215 pounds) and once the Ravens began to utilize Boldin in the slot last season, he dominated. During the regular season, Boldin had 65 catches for 921 yards and four touchdowns, including 29 receptions (45 percent) from the slot. During the playoffs, the Ravens increased Boldin's usage in the slot. He grew from running a little more than 60 percent of his routes from the slot during the regular season to more than 67 percent for the playoffs.

The result was that Boldin's yardage totals grew by more than 50 percent per game, from 61 yards per game in the regular season to 95 in the playoffs. Obviously, he performs well in that role and should ably fill the void left by Crabtree.

That brings us to Kaepernick, himself.
Let's start with a trivia question: Can you name all of the quarterbacks in the NFL who surpassed Kaepernick's 8.3 yards per pass attempt last season? It's a trick question, because the inexperienced Kaepernick led the league. Yes, better than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Better than everyone. Additionally, his 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio placed him fifth in the league, behind the aforementioned trio and Robert Griffin III. It's because of those two metrics that it's safe to predict a slight rise in the number of attempts Kaepernick gets per game as he gains more experience, so let's try to quantify that.
During his weeks as a starter in the regular season, Kaepernick averaged a solid 31 passes per game. For perspective, nine quarterbacks averaged more than 36 passes per game last season: Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Brady, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning. You'll notice that there isn't a good scrambler in that bunch, so the inexperienced Kaepernick was being trusted quite a bit already. But I think there's room for significant growth in his passing numbers.

Last season, the 49ers had 173 offensive possessions, which was eight fewer than the league average. I think it is reasonable to expect them to return to average, as in 2011, when they had 184 possessions versus the league average of 183.8. Since 49ers offensive drives averaged 33 yards last season, an increase in possessions to the 2012 league average would net 264 more total yards. And because 57 percent of their yardage came through the air last season, that's a gain of 150 passing yards. At 8.32 yards per attempt, that's worth a little more than one attempt per game, which accounts for the first 4 percent of the increase.

The rest of the increase I anticipate in passing attempts comes from the team putting even more of the offense on his shoulders, because he's shown how dynamic he can be in the passing game, reaching at least 233 yards in each of his final five games, including the postseason. With a growth of four or five attempts per game, Kaepernick's passing statistics should increase in the neighborhood of 15 percent, which just screams fantasy goodness.

The other part of Kaepernick's dynamic game is his rushing capability. While many view Kaepernick's fantasy usefulness as reliant on the run, he scored only three fewer fantasy points as the starter than Peyton Manning. During those weeks, Kaepernick averaged 34 rushing yards per game and managed two rushing touchdowns. Those numbers prorate to 544 rushing yards and fewer than five touchdowns for a complete season, which I find eminently achievable in 2013, so it's not as if Kaepernick's rushing capabilities skewed his fantasy production last season. That means that last season should form the baseline for what to expect from Kaepernick.

When you take into account that he ranked as the ninth-best quarterback as a starter last season; that Davis is poised to produce at a higher level than he did last season with Kaepernick as a starter; that Boldin should fill any void left by Crabtree; and that Kaepernick likely will see an increase in passes attempted, it's safe to project Kaepernick finishing as a top-seven fantasy quarterback this season. I have no hesitation with drafting Kaepernick as your lone quarterback in 10-team leagues, or as your primary quarterback in larger leagues.

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2013

Is Arian Foster the slam-dunk No. 2 pick?

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

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We can all agree that Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is the top pick in fantasy football drafts this season. What we apparently cannot agree on for sure is who is second. A month or so ago, I was confidently on board with Houston Texans running back Arian Foster as a really strong consolation prize if you don’t get the first pick. After all, Foster finished the 2012 season tied with Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie Doug Martin for second in standard running back scoring, and did so despite his yards per carry declining to an average level. Backup Ben Tate is younger, faster, somewhat healthier … and here we are in August and Foster is still my No. 2 pick.

I’ve considered moving Foster down several spots, as I’m just a bit less confident in health, workload and to some degree performance, leaving some doubt that he’s a no-brainer No. 2 choice. I’ve seen in several drafts recently, and in the rankings of colleagues at ESPN and beyond, that he’s hardly everyone else’s No. 2 pick. To be honest, the main issue I have with moving this touchdown machine down in the top 10 is mainly about the other options that would supplant Foster.
For example, Martin is of course awesome, but the Oakland Raiders aren’t on the schedule this season (51 of his fantasy points, or 20.6 percent, came in that Week 9 embarrassment). Marshawn Lynch always seems nicked up, is approaching 1,500 career carries and he’s bound to be abused again this fall. Ray Rice is likely to see fewer touches, though that doesn’t concern me much. Finally, whether we like it or not, durability and potentially time-sharing remains an issue for Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller and last year’s top-three pick, LeSean McCoy. Don’t ask me about taking a quarterback or wide receiver in Round 1. Foster keeps the No. 2 spot for now, but even the most optimistic fantasy owner has to have some level of concern.
For one, Foster has that annoying little asterisk next to his name in ESPN’s leagues, denoting an injury, in his case a right calf strain. Player and team have repeatedly denounced the serious nature of said injury, but Foster was on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, meaning he was not a full participant at practice. Perhaps all is well now, perhaps the issue lingers into September, so while it’s brushed off as no big deal in July and early August, it does bear watching.
It would probably bear less watching if Foster hadn’t dealt with several episodes of an irregular heartbeat in the past, including Week 16 of last season, and if he hadn’t received more than 1,100 touches the past three seasons, easily the heaviest workload in the game. His role in the passing game has clearly lessened, dropping from 47 receiving yards per game in 2011 to 13 per game in 2012. And oh yeah, after averaging 4.9 yards per tote in 2010, that number slipped to 4.4 in 2011 and 4.1 last season. This is a trend many seem to ignore as long as Foster piles on more than a touchdown per contest, but what if that particular gift of end zone magic ceases?

The only tangible change I’ve made in my rankings with regard to this situation is to exalt Tate, who was terrific in 2011 though largely quiet last season, well ahead of his current ADP slot (13th round) and into my top 100. Not only is he the most obvious handcuff in a football world with plenty of them, but my rationale is that if we knew Foster was out for a few months or more, like Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Percy Harvin, then Tate would receive first-round consideration from me immediately. I can’t say this about any other backup running back. Tate is potentially that good. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie and nearly reached 1,000 rushing yards, despite being a clear backup. Last year, he dealt with nagging injuries, but don’t let that sway you from how much you liked him last summer. The Auburn product rushed for 100 yards four times as a rookie, and knowing how much the Texans love to run and how effective their zone blocking system generally is, it’s a perfect fit for anyone with size and speed.
Perhaps Tate wouldn’t score touchdowns at the same rate Foster has, but once you get past the top 10 running backs there are questions everywhere, and Tate’s upside is pretty clear. Frankly, owning Foster already is irrelevant to considering whether to choose Tate or not, and it’s not about torturing a league-mate. If you’re in the eighth or ninth round and want a running back with a chance to be great, grab Tate. It’s not a typical handcuff running back situation. Nobody other than the Peterson owner wants Toby Gerhart, for instance.
Foster isn’t done yet, and he remains my No. 2 pick for keeper/dynasty formats as well. He turns 27 in a few weeks, so he’s not at that cringing age of 30 for the position. And while he’s been awfully busy for three years and seemed to wear down a bit in December, injury is the lone worry when it comes to long-term value. Foster can be elite for a few more seasons. My worry is that he’ll miss games this fall, or his yards per carry will drop a little bit more, Tate will see a major upgrade in touches and the 2012 No. 1 overall pick ends up in the No. 1 time-share in the league. I do not have concerns that Matt Schaub will suddenly be asked to throw considerably more just because Foster is dinged up and the team drafted a shiny new toy in Clemson’s DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans love to run the ball near the goal line. In a backwards way, I’m not here to bury Foster. Only one amazing running back outscored him last season, and this current injury really does seem like no big deal. But I’ll be watching the rest of this month and if I ever get the No. 2 pick.

HacheMan · Aug 11, 2013

[h=1]WRs with poor fantasy matchups[/h][h=3]Why Calvin Johnson and other WRs could have diminished value[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

In a recent article for ESPN Insider, we took a look at how favorable cornerback schedules can help fantasy wide receiver candidates.

The flip side of this equation is that wideouts with tough matchup schedules can sometimes have their in-season value muted below what it would be under better circumstances.

So which wide receivers have the least favorable matchup schedules in 2013? And are they capable of beating those matchups to post points in spite of the personnel difficulties?

As we start, it helps to take a quick look at how schedule strengths are measured. In my 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, cornerbacks are graded with a color-coded matchup rating system. Red-rated cornerbacks are among the top third at their position and thus tend to be matchups one wants to avoid if possible. Yellow-rated cornerbacks rate in the middle third of the league and are solid positional battles for wideouts. Green-rated cornerbacks are those in the bottom third of the league and therefore are the most favorable matchups from a wide receiver's perspective.

The guide then reviews which cornerback a wide receiver is slated to face each week and assigns a point total based on the color grade. Red-rated matchups give zero points, yellow-rated matchups award one point and green-rated matchups provide two points. This means the higher the wide receiver's matchup total, the more favorable his schedule is likely to be. Anything close to 10 points is considered a very difficult schedule, and 18-20 points serves as the bar noting an extremely positive set of matchups.

Let's take a closer look at the candidates to see which wideouts have the toughest matchups in 2013.

[h=3]Calvin Johnson (11 matchup points)[/h]
<OFFER></OFFER>
Megatron is hands down the best wide receiver in the NFL, but he has a brutal schedule slate this season. Johnson is due to face seven red-rated cornerbacks, a total that is tied for the second-highest in the league. Making things worse is there are three games in which Johnson is due to face either a yellow- or green-rated cornerback but the Lions' other wideout has a red-rated cornerback due to face him. In those games, it would not be a surprise to see the opposing defense move that red-rated cornerback to match up against Johnson.

This is not to say Johnson is anything less than the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, as his 8.8 yards per attempt mark against red-rated cornerbacks last year ranked 10th in the league and proves he can deal with this caliber of competition. The takeaway should instead be that this is another factor pointing toward Johnson not being able to quite match his record-setting 2012 season.

[h=3]Josh Gordon (11 matchup points)[/h]
(Gordon's matchup points total is actually a measurement of his season-long positional matchup total, as he is due to be suspended for the first two weeks of the NFL season.)

Gordon doesn't have a terribly hard start to his 2012 campaign as he is due to face only one red-rated cornerback through Week 11. After that, his schedule becomes one to be avoided as he has four red-rated cornerbacks in the last six weeks of the season. That makes him a subpar start prospect in the fantasy postseason, and his 6.4 YPA last year when facing red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks (ranked 58th) suggests he might have some problems even before that time of year.

[h=3]Tavon Austin (11 matchup points)[/h]
Austin is very much like Percy Harvin in that he is a speed running back playing wide receiver, but even those types of players can be negatively affected by matchups -- and no slot wide receiver has a tougher schedule than Austin. Fifteen of his season-long projected cornerback battles are against red- or yellow-rated defenders. St. Louis also faces a number of very physical secondaries (Houston and Chicago, plus Seattle and San Francisco twice each), and all of them will aim to test Austin to see whether his 5-foot-8, 174-pound frame can deal with pro-caliber punishment.

[h=3]Emmanuel Sanders (11 matchup points)[/h]
There are three matchup-based issues for Sanders. First, he is due to square off against red-rated cornerbacks in two of the first four weeks of the season. Second, he has a four-game stretch of red-rated matchups in Weeks 13-16. Third, he had only two passes last year against red-rated cornerbacks, so he is basically unproven against that caliber of competition. He might be up to the task, but, if he isn't, Sanders might not offer very much in the way of quality wide receiver bench depth.

[h=3]Danny Amendola (12 matchup points)[/h]
Dink-and-dunk passes are his specialty, so Amendola isn't going to be as affected by tough matchups as some of the other wideouts on this list. Having noted that, though he does face back-to-back red-rated cornerbacks in Weeks 15 and 16, so his fantasy value could take a hit during the fantasy football playoffs.

[h=3]Torrey Smith (13 matchup points)[/h]
Last year, Smith posted a 5.1 YPA mark on passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks, a total that placed tied for 71st in that category. He also had a 7.6 YPA versus any level of rated cornerback competition (a total that ranked tied for 49th), so pretty much any type of competition can somewhat hinder his progress. That could be an issue all season and could be especially troublesome in Weeks 6-13, when he faces red-rated cornerbacks in five of the Ravens' seven games (they have a bye in Week 8).

[h=3]A.J. Green (13 matchup points)[/h]
Green is in many ways only a step from challenging Calvin Johnson for the title of most dominant wide receiver in the NFL, yet he does have a potential weakness when facing red-rated cornerbacks. Last year, he averaged only 6.6 YPA on 20 pass attempts versus red-rated cornerbacks, a mark that ranked tied for 31st. That number was only slightly higher than his 6.3 YPA versus red-rated cornerbacks in 2011 (ranked tied for 41st) and offers evidence that top-flight coverage defenders can impede his progress to some extent. That could be a hindrance versus a schedule that has five red-rated cornerbacks, with four of those matchups occurring in Weeks 9-17.

[h=3]Jordy Nelson (13 matchup points)[/h]
Nelson has been one of the more matchup-proof wideouts in the NFL. His 10.9 YPA versus red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks finished tied for 19th in 2012, and his 9.6 YPA placed him 12th in that category in 2011. He does have three red-rated cornerbacks in his first seven games, but these numbers indicate that that shouldn't diminish his value in fantasy drafts.

[h=3]Andre Johnson (13 matchup points)[/h]
Andre Johnson finished second only to Calvin Johnson in terms of number of pass attempts against a red- or yellow-rated cornerback (75 for Andre Johnson, 103 for Calvin Johnson). This indicates defenses go all out to try to stop him with top-level coverage. His 7.7 YPA against that caliber of cornerback ranked tied for 32nd in that metric, and Johnson scored only two touchdowns on those throws. This type of coverage was partially responsible for Johnson having five games with five or fewer fantasy points and why he was held under double digits on nine occasions. Look for more of the same hit/miss type of performances this year.

[h=3]Reggie Wayne (13 matchup points)[/h]
Wayne has a reputation for getting more of his value from quantity than quality at this point of his career. His 7.2 YPA and two touchdown passes on 51 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks last year offers evidence that reputation is accurate. Consider him a workhorse WR2 because of this.

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2013

Weekend Wrapup: Givens, DeSean shine

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

It's always dangerous when fantasy owners watch August preseason action a bit too closely and get excited about the possibilities of big statistics carrying over to September. After all, a year ago the preseason statistical stars were … Kirk Cousins, William Powell, Nate Eachus and Travaris Cadet. Still, football returned this past weekend and hey, I enjoyed watching some of it. As long as nobody gets too carried away, there is information to be gleaned, especially for those excited about the potential the St. Louis Rams' offense brings.

I've never been a particularly big fan of former No. 1 pick Sam Bradford, but the young quarterback certainly appears to have enough weapons to become fantasy-relevant. On Thursday night, Bradford completed 5-of-8 passes for 102 yards and found the underrated Chris Givens for a short touchdown. I can't say I'm moving up Bradford in my rankings from his current No. 17 slot among quarterbacks yet, as the fellows directly ahead of him (Michael Vick, Joe Flacco) are more accomplished and possess their own degrees of statistical upside. But my interest is getting piqued a bit more each week by a few of his weapons.

<OFFER>Givens, for one, seems to be getting overlooked in relation to hotshot rookie Tavon Austin, according to ESPN's live draft results; Austin is going four rounds earlier. Givens is a major deep threat who in one five-game stretch last season caught a 50-yard pass each week. He turned a short pass into a 59-yarder Thursday and was also targeted in the red zone for a 3-yard score. It's only the preseason, but it's a nice harbinger of things to come. Austin is immensely talented, but I tend to shy away from rookies, at least in relation to where they're usually drafted. Sure, the Rams will use Austin, but the fact that the Rams traded up in the draft to get him means little at this point. He's good, but Givens is, too. Austin should see ample time out of the slot. He saw a mere one target Thursday, which I'm not reading into.

With Steven Jackson now a slightly overrated member of the Atlanta Falcons -- he just turned 30, and that's the only info I need to leave him out of my top 15 running backs -- there's an opening to receive Bradford's handoffs. Most people think Isaiah Pead earns the starting job. Perhaps he will, but Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been talking up Daryl Richardson the past few weeks, and Thursday it was Richardson starting and averaging six yards per his four carries, plus catching two passes. Richardson looked quick hitting the holes and, unlike Pead, isn't suspended for Week 1. I'm ready to switch the order of Richardson and Pead in my rankings, making the former an eighth- or ninth-round gamble.

One more thing on the Rams: I've been eschewing the tight end position pretty regularly in drafts, and I keep ending up with Jared Cook, the former Tennessee Titans athlete reunited with Fisher. Cook saw no targets Thursday, but I don't care. He's strong and fast and the Rams can line him up inside and out. I'll probably move Cook into my top 10 tight ends soon. Last year Lance Kendricks was the main tight end, and he's still in St. Louis, but Cook can be so much better.

Here are a few other thoughts from a busy first preseason weekend:

• The Baltimore Ravens produced 44 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the first touchdown coming on a Bernard Pierce 20-yard scamper. Pierce was hurt on the play, suffering a sprained left knee that doesn't appear serious. Could this result in Pierce falling in drafts? It shouldn't, though I think people are overrating how he and Ray Rice will split touches.

• More Ravens: With tight end Ed Dickson on the shelf -- fellow tight end Dennis Pitta is gone for the season, so don't draft him -- former Minnesota Vikings option Visanthe Shiancoe was signed, and he caught a team-high three passes Thursday. Before the weekend was done, the team also signed former Peyton Manning target Dallas Clark. I think this means Dickson, a sleeper for many, won't return from his hamstring injury anytime soon, not that Clark or Shiancoe becomes relevant. The Ravens also signed Brandon Stokley, now 37, but if you believe Jacoby Jones is a sleeper, this shouldn't change that. Not yet anyway.

• I saw way too much of the New England Patriots-Philadelphia Eagles clash Thursday, but hey, the new Chip Kelly offense could pay major dividends in fantasy. I had to look! The Eagles moved the ball fairly well, but Kelly was more cautious with the play-calling than he figures to be in September. Michael Vick looked sharp, connecting on four of five passes, including an electric touchdown bomb to DeSean Jackson. Vick has to start in Week 1. My original thought on the Jeremy Maclin season-ending injury was that Jackson's value wouldn't rise, but the oft-bitter Philly media has been raving about Jackson's ability and motivation for months. I doubt we learn much about the Philly offense in the next few weeks, but watch the running back battle behind LeSean McCoy, who missed the game with a sore knee. Bryce Brown will have to fend off Chris Polk. Brown looked better Thursday.

• I'm not going out of my way to draft inconsistent Titan Chris Johnson, but he turned his second carry into a 58-yard touchdown jaunt, a reminder of his ample potential. (I do rank Johnson ahead of the Falcons' Jackson, by the way.) Then again, former New York Jets plodder Shonn Greene turned in a 19-yard touchdown run of his own. Tennessee revamped its offensive line, which shouldn't be overlooked. For now I still want no part of Greene.

• With so much quarterback depth this season, it's tough to make a case for Buffalo Bills rookie EJ Manuel, despite his solid outing Sunday at Indianapolis. But what about his receivers after Stevie Johnson? Marcus Easley caught 94 yards worth of passes, but he's precisely the type of player who gets overrated from August games. Rookie Robert Woods seemed to have little trouble getting open, and he caught four of his five targets, though all were short passes.

• I was hoping to see how Pittsburgh Steelers rookie running back Le'Veon Bell looked in his debut against the New York Giants, but a day after being proclaimed the starter for the preseason opener, he was scratched with a sore left knee. Perhaps it's a good thing, indicative that Bell is so safe as the overall starter, he needn't be risked in August. Veteran Jonathan Dwyer, who according to reports weighs considerably less than he did last season, rushed six times for a measly 15 yards.

HacheMan · Aug 12, 2013

Robert Griffin III injury update

Stephania Bell

The sheer number of fans present at the Bon Secours Washington Redskins Training Center in Richmond, Va., where the Redskins are holding their 2013 training camp, speaks to the excitement that surrounds this team. The percentage of those fans wearing Robert Griffin III jerseys and shrieking his name with excitement as he exited the practice field speaks to their adoration of -- and expectations for -- their young star quarterback.
The buzz all summer has surrounded whether Griffin will or won’t be ready to start Week 1 following January surgery to reconstruct the ACL and repair the LCL in his right knee. Based on his conversation with the media on Monday, there is no question in Griffin’s mind.
“There is no doubt that I’m playing Week 1,” Griffin said. “That’s just the way I feel about it.”

Perhaps Griffin can see the light at the end of the tunnel, given that he is about to increase his participation in practice, albeit on a gradual basis. Thus far in camp, he has been limited to 7-on-7 drills, combined with individual work simulating pocket activity and the associated footwork (including dropbacks, pivots, cross-body throws and throws on the run), but he has yet to face any true pressure forcing him to react on the fly.
On Wednesday, Griffin will begin working in 11-on-11 drills, although a source tells ESPN that it will only be against the scout team. Still, that represents progress and can be considered yet another step toward returning to play. As to how this will be different from what he’s done so far, Griffin said, “[It’s] just live action, getting guys flying at you. I don’t think it’s a huge step. I just think it’s time to get back out there with my teammates.” He later added, “I’ve been ready for this. I think that’s well-documented.”
The formal ramping up of activity makes sense. Griffin has been able to gradually increase the intensity and speed of his work through the early part of camp and has suffered no setbacks in the form of soreness or swelling. He credited his mom and dad with having something to do with not needing a day off (“I am proud that I have good genes”) and is eager to get back in the mix. “I’d just like to see the look on the guys’ faces when I step in the huddle,” Griffin said. “They laugh and joke about it that they haven’t seen me in a while, but I think the guys are happy to have me back out there.”
From a timing standpoint, the Redskins have a full practice week here before camp closes, followed by a Monday night preseason game. There will be a short week before the third preseason game the following Saturday. This week then becomes a good time to gradually increase Griffin’s full team activity and for the coaches and medical staff to get a good look at how he is responding.
Although Griffin is not expected to participate in any preseason game action, it doesn’t mean he won’t continue to try. He’d like to get some reps in the third preseason game, but as Griffin indicated, Shanahan has told him it’s a “hard no” right now. The concerns about Griffin setting foot on the field before the start of the regular season are obvious. Even if he is physically ready to perform, the risk of him suffering an injury -- any injury -- and the associated fallout, may not be worth the reward of a test run for a single series. The natural concern about not returning to competitive action is that Griffin isn’t forced to truly react to an oncoming rush against an opponent whose intent it is to bring him to the ground, without regard for his recently reconstructed knee. As for how he’s preparing in the absence of that pressure, Griffin said he tries to mimic it as much as he can, “making movements without thinking about them, breaking and escaping from the pocket, stopping [and] starting really fast. … You just react, and you trust that you’re going to be OK.”

Much has been made about the fact that this is Griffin’s second ACL reconstruction on the same knee, as the success rates for a revision procedure are slightly lower, but there are some positives. First, his graft for this surgery was taken from the patellar tendon of the opposite knee (his first graft was from the right knee, and thus it could not be the source of the graft this time). Using the opposite knee eliminates some potential for issues with the tendon anchoring the large quad muscle on his right knee, possibly one of the reasons he has not experienced any tendinitis or stiffness.
Perhaps most importantly, Griffin carried the experience of his first rehab into this second round, removing much of the anxiety athletes typically endure when they suffer such a significant injury.
“I was more ready for it,” Griffin said of this reocovery process. “I knew what parts of the rehab were going to be the most difficult. I knew where you were going to have the most pain, which is early on in the process. I know that every time you do a new exercise, it might not feel right the first time, but once you do it again, you get that confidence back.”
Confidence is one area where Griffin is not lacking. It is likely to serve him well when he does return to competition, because that aspect of recovery is typically the hardest thing for an athlete to regain after an injury such as this. And yet it is such a critical element of returning to an elite level of performance.
In medicine, the standard for gauging success following rehabilitation is a return to the prior level of function which, for Griffin, means returning to the field as an NFL quarterback. He says his prior experience recovering from ACL surgery is what has prepared him for success this time.
“Just having the confidence to know I can go back out there and play at a high level like before, and even better than before,” Griffin said, adding, “I did that in college, and I know I can do that in the NFL.”

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

Revised sleepers and busts

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Fantasy owners are always on the lookout for sleepers and busts. Remember, a big to key winning your league is finding the best value with your draft picks. Landing a star in the later rounds can give your lineup a boost or become a trade chip to land an elite player. Meanwhile, dodging a highly ranked player in the preseason who fails to live up to expectations can put you in better situations as the season progresses.

So, we're back to update our sleeper and bust picks for the 2013 fantasy football season. We originally published our list back in June when our draft kit first launched. However, plenty of things have changed since then, whether it be injuries, surprising performances in training camp and/or preseason games, shifting coaching philosophies, or other news. Some of our analysts have overhauled their sleepers and busts; others stayed the same.

For the purposes of this exercise, our sleepers are players not likely to be drafted as a starting option in ESPN standard leagues, according to our consensus preseason rankings, but who could be solid contributors or even become superstars this season. Conversely, most of our busts are players likely drafted as starting options, according to our consensus preseason rankings, but who could fail to live up to expectations.

Our analysts (Matthew Berry, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Shawn Cwalinski, Ken Daube, Christopher Harris, Dave Hunter, KC Joyner, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, AJ Mass, Jim McCormick, James Quintong and Field Yates) were asked to provide one sleeper candidate and one bust candidate each at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. They then offered up analysis of some of their choices.

Sleepers by position: QB | RB | WR | TE

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
[h=4]Quarterback[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Alex Smith	Andrew Luck
Cockcroft	Ryan Tannehill	Peyton Manning
Cwalinski	Ryan Tannehill	Matt Ryan
Daube	EJ Manuel	Matt Ryan
Harris	Sam Bradford	Michael Vick
Hunter	Ryan Tannehill	Colin Kaepernick
Joyner	Carson Palmer	Andy Dalton
Karabell	Ryan Tannehill	Michael Vick
Lipscomb	Alex Smith	Tom Brady
Mass	Ryan Tannehill	Colin Kaepernick
McCormick	Alex Smith	Colin Kaepernick
Quintong	Ryan Tannehill	Cam Newton
Yates	Carson Palmer	Robert Griffin III

Sleepers
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: Palmer posted 16 or more points in eight games last year. That per-game scoring pace is roughly the productivity level one seeks in a starting fantasy quarterback, and Palmer tallied those numbers on an Oakland Raiders offense that had across-the-board pass-game personnel issues. He now joins an offense with a vertically inclined play-caller in Bruce Arians and a top-flight caliber wideout in Larry Fitzgerald. The schedule will preclude Palmer from being a QB1, but he will provide a strong spot-start/QB2 option for what likely will be an incredibly low draft-day price. (KC Joyner)
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Expectations for Tannehill won't be too high this season, but adding the young quarterback as your No. 2 or bye week fill-in is a decent risk. Tannehill should cut down on his turnovers with a year of seasoning and added maturity under his belt, and the addition of Mike Wallace will give him a more permanent downfield passing option. (Dave Hunter)

Busts
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers: The loss of his best wideout in Michael Crabtree, along with an already-thin depth chart at the position, could make Kaepernick's first full season as the starter a bit more trying than his sensational first run through the league. I could still see some strong numbers emerge when you add up the ground production and dangerous playmaking ability, but given how amazingly deep quarterback is, I find it difficult to endorse Kaepernick as a top-eight option when guys such as Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have more fertile statistical situations with similar -- or quite a bit lower -- price tags. (Jim McCormick)

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: I'm not saying Manning is a bad pick, but his value in fantasy is his relentless year-over-year consistency, not his ability to win you ballgames on his own. The problem, however, is that he's going to cost you the price of the latter; and, in a year like this, rich in quarterback depth, that is not a smart buy. Manning is 37 years old and had two sub-15-point fantasy games in his final four last season; it's fair to wonder whether the age curve has sapped him of any future upside. (Tristan H. Cockcroft)

[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
[h=4]Running Backs[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Andre Brown	DeMarco Murray
Cockcroft	Zac Stacy	Frank Gore
Cwalinski	Ronnie Hillman	Montee Ball
Daube	Zac Stacy	Montee Ball
Harris	Shane Vereen	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Hunter	Eddie Lacy	David Wilson
Joyner	Daryl Richardson	Fred Jackson
Karabell	Joseph Randle	Darren McFadden
Lipscomb	Shane Vereen	Frank Gore
Mass	LaMichael James	C.J. Spiller
McCormick	Joseph Randle	Matt Forte
Quintong	Justin Forsett	LeSean McCoy
Yates	Danny Woodhead	David Wilson

Sleepers
Justin Forsett, Jacksonville Jaguars: Remember when he once entered the season ranked near the top 20 among running backs? He's not there now, but he did average 5.9 yards a carry as a backup for the Houston Texans last year, and he's familiar with the zone-blocking scheme the Jaguars are looking to employ. With Maurice Jones-Drew still recovering from a foot injury, Forsett could be in line for chances and actually thrive, at least in short bursts. (James Quintong)

Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys: A highly productive collegiate career, soft hands and a nose for the end zone are just a few of the positives you'll find on Randle's scouting report. The most promising element for Randle's rookie season in Dallas, however, has less to do with his skill set and everything to do with the fragile back ahead of him on the depth chart, DeMarco Murray. Given Murray's issues staying on the field, the potential for Randle to earn a handful of 2013 starts, if not more, is pretty high here. (McCormick)

Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams: As noted in my recent article on the 10 most undervalued running backs, Richardson does a superb job of gaining yards when given good blocking. Add that to his 36 targets in part-time play last year and his currently being listed as the Rams' No. 1 back and it makes him the best candidate to possibly replicate Alfred Morris' come-out-of-nowhere dominant 2012 season. (Joyner)

Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers: Did you know that Woodhead had more fantasy points and a higher yards-per-carry mark than Ryan Mathews last season? Woodhead also had 194 more receiving yards on one more reception. Woodhead did all that with a top-10 fantasy back starting ahead of him; Mathews is not a top-10 fantasy RB. Woodhead might not be worth starting at RB every week, but he is at least a solid flex consideration. (Shawn Cwalinski)

Busts

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: The ESPN.com NFL draft profile for Ball includes these comments about his blocking ability: swings and misses a bit too often ... doesn't anchor well ... an average cut blocker. Ball must overcome those negatives to be the clear starter for the Broncos, who won't put Peyton Manning's health in the hands of a rookie running back who is lacking in pass protection. (Ken Daube)

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: Let me know when McFadden plays a full season. Even when he did play last season, he certainly wasn't very good. (Eric Karabell)

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: Doug Marrone certainly is talking up Spiller as Buffalo's lead back. In an offense that won't shy away from the ground game, there's every reason to be excited about a guy who was pigeonholed into being used only as a "role player" in the past. That said, I think the hype needle has gone too far in the other direction and Marrone is just as likely to use Fred Jackson for quarters at a time. (AJ Mass)

David Wilson, New York Giants: Talent didn't limit Wilson to 75 carries as a rookie in 2012; reliability issues and veterans ahead of him on the depth chart did. And, although he's the leading candidate to start for the Giants this season, we all know Tom Coughlin has little tolerance for missed assignments as a pass-blocker and fumbles. If Wilson has issues with either thing early (which he did last year), it wouldn't come as a surprise to see his role decrease. Also, Andre Brown likely will get the bulk of the goal-line carries, as he did last season. (Field Yates)

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
[h=4]Wide Receivers[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Emmanuel Sanders	Mike Wallace
Cockcroft	Alshon Jeffery	Reggie Wayne
Cwalinski	DeAndre Hopkins	Danny Amendola
Daube	Justin Blackmon	Cecil Shorts
Harris	Rueben Randle	Wes Welker
Hunter	Brian Quick	Mike Wallace
Joyner	Cecil Shorts	Danny Amendola
Karabell	Vincent Brown	Danny Amendola
Lipscomb	Ryan Broyles	Danny Amendola
Mass	Aaron Dobson	Victor Cruz
McCormick	Chris Givens	Mike Wallace
Quintong	Mohamed Sanu	Randall Cobb
Yates	Julian Edelman	Mike Wallace

Sleepers

Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars: I completely understand the perceived value impact of Blackmon's suspension to start the season, but it shouldn't scare you. You can easily draft Blackmon as your fourth or fifth wide receiver, which means there's almost no chance you'd plan on playing him until bye weeks roll around anyway. He'll be back and well rested by then, which gives you a wide receiver with top-15 upside and virtually no downside. (Daube)

Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers: I kept waiting for Brown to get healthy last season and it didn't happen, but he's been lining up with the first team on occasion this summer, a nod to his tremendous upside and clear health. Brown showed glimpses of his exceptional ability in 2011, and the broken ankle cost him 2012. Don't forget his name later in drafts, for there's room for a new No. 1 target to emerge. (Karabell)

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: Someone has to catch all those passes from Tom Brady, and, although Edelman was missing from action to start training camp, he has returned and already looks up to speed coming off of a foot injury. Creativity has long been a staple of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' résumé, and look for him to find ways to manufacture touches for talented but injury-prone Edelman. Whether it's replicating some of what Wes Welker did (which Danny Amendola will be counted on to do, too), taking carries from the backfield or even working on the perimeter as a receiver, Edelman is in line for his biggest pro season yet. We're hedging our bets on his health, but the possible return is too savory to ignore. (Yates)

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: Part of this is that I'm simply not a believer that Brandon Marshall can eat as large a slice of the Bears' receiving pie as he did last year; at 41 percent, Marshall's targets-per-route ratio last year was the highest of any receiver in the past four seasons. The rest is that Jeffery is more than talented enough to be a viable No. 2 NFL wideout, having averaged 15.3 yards per catch in limited time in 2012. I think he could realize borderline WR2/3 potential -- if he can just stay healthy. (Cockcroft)

Busts

Danny Amendola, New England Patriots: Yes, he's inheriting the Wes Welker go-to receiver role in the offense, but he's no Wes Welker. He definitely will catch his share of balls, but his seven career TDs in four years and the fact that he has missed 20 of 32 games the past two years don't inspire confidence as a No. 2 WR. (Keith Lipscomb)

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins: Because of the big contract and Ryan Tannehill's solid completion numbers on deep balls (37 percent, eighth-best among QBs with at least 35 attempts of 21 yards or greater), I know some people are expecting big things in Florida this year. I'm not one of them. Too inconsistent for me. He had seven games last year with five or fewer fantasy points, including four games with zero or one point. Going from Big Ben to Tannehill is a downgrade, and, when your yardage goes from 1,257 to 1,193 to just 836, you're heading in the wrong direction. Wallace is not a top-20 WR. (Matthew Berry)

Wes Welker, Denver Broncos: Let me paint you a picture. The great Welker -- who has the NFL's most catches over the past six years -- comes to Denver and continues to play well out of the slot. But the workload isn't quite there; with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker around, Peyton Manning relies less on Welker's middle-of-the-field brilliance than Brady did in New England. Instead of 11 targets per game, now Welker sees eight. Instead of 18 red zone targets in a season, he gets 10. As a result, instead of his standard 1,300-yard, seven-TD season, Welker puts up a perfectly reasonable 80 catches, 1,100 yards and five TDs. But instead of being a borderline top-10 WR, now he's borderline top 20 and not worth his average draft position. (Christopher Harris)

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
[h=4]Tight Ends[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Rob Housler	Vernon Davis
Cockcroft	Fred Davis	Kyle Rudolph
Cwalinski	Jordan Cameron	Rob Gronkowski
Daube	Fred Davis	Kyle Rudolph
Harris	Jordan Cameron	Greg Olsen
Hunter	Jordan Cameron	Jason Witten
Joyner	Brandon Myers	Martellus Bennett
Karabell	Fred Davis	Vernon Davis
Lipscomb	Coby Fleener	Rob Gronkowski
Mass	Travis Kelce	Vernon Davis
McCormick	Dwayne Allen	Owen Daniels
Quintong	Zach Miller	Kyle Rudolph
Yates	Heath Miller	Kyle Rudolph

Sleepers

Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns: Cameron has all of 26 catches in two NFL seasons, so he's far from a sure thing. But the pieces add up. He's big and athletic, and his new play-callers are Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, who've spent their NFL lives turning their tight ends into fantasy stars. Relying on Brandon Weeden might be a sucker bet, but, in a deeper league, I like the idea of drafting Cameron late. (Harris)

Fred Davis, Washington Redskins: Don't listen to anyone who says Davis and RG III didn't have chemistry last year. Through the first six weeks of the 2012 season, Davis averaged 52 receiving yards per game. Since Tony Gonzalez averaged just 60 receiving yards per game over the entire season, did he have lousy chemistry, too? Of course not. The chemistry misconception is caused by the abnormality of Davis not having any touchdowns. That's not going to repeat; take advantage of the undervaluing of Davis on draft day. (Daube)

Rob Housler, Arizona Cardinals: I've just always liked him from a skill stand point. He's 6-foot-5 and athletic, moving fast for a big guy. His problem, of course, is that he has never had a quarterback. Now he does in Carson Palmer, who last year targeted Brandon Myers 105 times, the fourth-most targets by a tight end. If you decide to wait on tight end, a flier at the end of your draft on Housler could pay big dividends. (Berry)

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: I loved Kelce at the University of Cincinnati. He has the size and tenacity to take any reception and turn it into a huge payday. We all know Andy Reid's offense doesn't shy away from getting the tight end involved (Brent Celek, anyone?). Plus, Kelce is athletic enough to line up at wide receiver from time to time, as well as jump in as a Wildcat option under center should the mood strike. (Mass)

Busts

Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears: Last year, Bennett was on a New York Giants offense that does a fantastic job of getting maximum performance from its tight ends and he still managed to post only 86 fantasy points (tied for 13th). Now he goes to an offense that is hoping it can turn around a long history of getting subpar performances out of its tight ends. There are too many fantasy tight end prospects who are just as talented and have better situations to consider Bennett a potential starter. (Joyner)

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: The talent is definitely there, but the consistency is not. Although the nine touchdowns last year were nice, he also had three games with no receptions and seven games with two or fewer points. With Greg Jennings around to catch more passes, and Adrian Peterson doing his thing at the goal line, can Rudolph continue to be a red zone/TD factor, especially with the quarterback situation still less than optimal? (Quintong)

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: Is it a coincidence that Witten's TD production has gone down each season since 2010 and wide receiver Dez Bryant's has gone up? With increased looks toward Bryant and fewer red zone targets for Witten, expect much of the same: good yardage totals with limited TDs. Use the draft slot where Witten would normally go on another RB or WR, and wait for a better value a few rounds later. (Hunter)

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

Reason to know Chiefs' Knile Davis

Eric Karabell

The first Monday morning tweet from ESPN’s respected Adam Schefter was not a positive one, sending the fantasy football community into an immediate panic:
“RB Jamaal Charles has left the field on a motorized cart after an apparent injury, per reporters at Chiefs practice.”
<OFFER>Well, talk about starting the week on a downer! Charles is kind of a big deal, you know, going sixth overall in ESPN ADP, but the general public wasn’t sure at the time how bad the injury was or even what was injured. Other than Charles’ name, what I saw from the tweet was motorized cart. Ugh.
</OFFER>
Thoughts of another ACL tear started to run rampant. Charles blew out a knee in Week 2 of the 2011 season, ruining many a fantasy season, although he rebounded remarkably well in 2012 -- not Adrian Peterson-remarkably well, but, for normal people, really well -- for more than 1,700 total yards. Oh, and Charles is still averaging 5.8 yards per carry in his career, which is easily the best of any running back ever and frankly quite ridiculous. The guy is good.
Alas, the news doesn’t seem so bad on the surface and he might even practice this week; Charles, the magnificent Kansas City Chiefs running back I’ve seen drafted as high as second overall in several drafts, had suffered a foot strain, and X-rays were negative. Coach Andy Reid called the cart and Charles’ removal precautionary and basically provided little information, which is no surprise. Schefter discussed ominously on "SportsCenter" that the Chiefs were privately worried about this becoming a bigger problem, but really, even now, there’s just not much information. Well, that’s not true. There is one piece of critical information: Learn the name Knile Davis.
The NFL season remains more than three weeks away, and, for all we know, Charles will be fine by then and darting and dashing all over the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense the opening Sunday. After all, Charles is really good and this could be a minor speed bump, so he remains in the middle of my first round pending more updates. Whoever gets to run the ball for the Chiefs this season gets to do so for a new coach in a new offense, and Reid generally doesn’t underuse his running backs, making them a major part of the passing game, as well.
However, it does seem like an appropriate time to point out that former Arkansas star Davis, one of the Chiefs’ recent third-round picks, might really be in the right place at the right time, and, even if this is just no big deal and not a real opportunity yet, I’ve already moved Davis into draft range for standard formats after the more popular handcuff running backs such as Ben Tate and Bryce Brown but near the likes of Joseph Randle and Roy Helu. Davis picked up the snaps that would have gone to Charles in Monday’s practice after Charles left, over Shaun Draughn, who mattered a bit last season. Davis has a good 30 pounds on Charles, but retains impressive breakaway speed and pass-catching ability. Honestly, any starting Chiefs running back will be coveted in a Reid system, but Davis clearly seems to be next in line.
Of course, if Davis were so perfect, he would have been a first-rounder, and there were no running backs chosen in the first round of the 2012 draft. Davis had his big college season way back in 2010, totaling more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage and scoring 14 touchdowns. He missed 2011 with an ankle injury and was ineffective last season, dealing with health and fumbling issues. On Monday morning, he was merely the backup, the guy who ran the football five times for 7 yards in the team’s preseason opener, although he also caught four passes (love that Reid West Coast offense!). By Monday afternoon, his name mattered more, which is mainly to say the fantasy community started to learn he existed.
Time will tell whether Davis really will matter, but I chose him in a few mock drafts Monday anyway. It just felt better than going with a retread who probably wouldn’t do much even if awarded opportunity, someone such as Pierre Thomas or Bilal Powell or even still-unemployed Michael Turner, who doesn’t appear any closer to finding either work or the fountain of youth. Davis is an upside play, and, if I had a real draft this week, I’d take a flier in the 12th or 13th round, just in case.

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

[h=1]My secret fantasy football stars[/h][h=3]Ten players you should draft in fantasy football this season[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

As in the real NFL draft, maximizing value is critical to success in fantasy football. Every year, there are players who inexplicably are drafted far lower than their expected production warrants. But there also certain players I think are due for a big season whom you should draft higher than their average draft position (ADP) just to get them on your team. Combining those two concepts made narrowing this list to 10 players a very difficult exercise, but the result is my list of fantasy players you need on your team this season.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 28.4

If you can draft Graham with an early third-round pick in a 12-team league, you should do it every time. I am very high on Graham's ability and think he is light-years ahead of every other tight end available (other than a healthy Rob Gronkowski, of course). I would strongly consider drafting him at the turn between Round 1 and Round 2. Having him in your starting lineup is like being allowed to start another high-end wide receiver; it's a tremendous advantage.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 68.7
<OFFER>This year, I believe the right move is to wait on taking your top fantasy quarterback. There are enough to go around, so there is no reason to be anxious. But with Luck, I am willing to take him higher than where he is currently going. I expect him to lead one of the league's best offenses in his second season behind a better offensive line and with more experience under his belt. Also, look for Luck to supplement his passing output with quite a bit of scrambling yardage and short touchdown runs.

I am surely in the minority, but the only quarterbacks I prefer over Luck for fantasy are Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Luck will be one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL very soon, and he will be elite for fantasy owners even sooner.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 97.4

I love Williams this year in Carolina. As evidenced by the show he put on in Week 17 last season (210 yards rushing on 21 carries), Williams still has plenty left in his tank. He has not had to endure a heavy workload in some time, but he still moves almost as well as he did when tearing up the league a few years back. Even in 2011, Williams averaged a whopping 5.4 yards per carry -- and he has never averaged less than 4.1 in any season. The Panthers are looking to lean more on a conventional running game this season, and I don't think Jonathan Stewart is the man for the job. Even though Williams might not garner a lot of short touchdowns with Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert around, grab Williams a round before his ADP and, by Week 3, you will be starting him every week. This guy can still play.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 106.6

Finley is my next target at tight end behind Graham and Gronkowski. He is in an elite offense, is dripping with talent and is at a pivotal point of his career (as for Kenny Britt below, this is the final year of his contract). That tends to light a fire under immensely talented players. Finley could be the Packers' best red zone option, as well, especially with Jordy Nelson's injury situation.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 109.6

As I mentioned last week in an article detailing the Saints' rushing attack, I have high hopes for Ingram this year. His health is better than at any previous point of his career, and I feel as if having Sean Payton calling the plays again in New Orleans will pay off well for Ingram's fantasy production. He should score plenty of touchdowns, but also realize that Ingram has noticeably more value in standard scoring leagues versus PPR scoring. Let's not forget so quickly why many of us were so high on Ingram when he was coming out of Alabama.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 112.8

Britt is a very talented player who has put up big numbers (when healthy) in this league, but he is at a crossroads in his career. Due to become a free agent after this season, Britt can make himself a lot of money if he plays up to his talent level this season. The Titans now have a lot of weapons on offense, and even though their quarterback situation is worrisome, the offensive line is vastly improved. The asking price for Britt, who could easily be a WR2 if everything goes right, is minimal right now. Take a shot on him because he has huge potential.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
ADP: 133.7

I am expecting a lot from Chicago's offense under Marc Trestman. Trestman's quick-hitting West Coast offense might not be the most natural fit with Cutler, who is best throwing deep downfield and improvising. But Cutler put up big numbers in Mike Shanahan's West Coast scheme in Denver and has a far better supporting cast in Chicago now than he did last year. The offensive line is clearly better, and the addition of Martellus Bennett is huge. And, of course, Cutler can make any throw and is an above average runner, as well. Cutler very well could end up as a QB1 when all is said and done.

Ravens D/ST
ADP: 137.0

The Ravens are the 10th D/ST coming off the board, but I see this unit as one of the best five defenses in the game in 2013. It is vastly improved from last season in nearly every defensive area. You should always wait on selecting a defense in fantasy, but it's probably worth it to grab Baltimore's a round or two before you usually would pull the trigger on this position. Elvis Dumervil should aid the pass rush, and Terrell Suggs will be back healthy and motivated to prove he is still an elite pass-rusher.

LaMichael James, RB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 143.3

James certainly will be more attractive in PPR formats, but he is an explosive player and I imagine Jim Harbaugh spent time this offseason finding more ways to get him involved in the offense. With Michael Crabtree out of the equation for a while, there are more pass targets to go around, and James is very capable of producing big plays as a runner and in the passing game. Expect James to see many more passes thrown his way in 2013, but he also could get 8-10 rushes per game in the NFL's best rushing attack.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions
ADP: 150.2

This outrageous ADP will correct itself and soon you won't be able to select Broyles this low in any draft. By all accounts, Broyles' recovery has gone extremely well and he should be a major part of Detroit's pass-happy offense in Week 1. Of course Calvin Johnson will dominate targets, but there are more than enough scraps for Reggie Bush and sure-handed Broyles, who is a superb route runner. Matthew Stafford will love this guy. But of course, there's one obvious caveat. Can he stay healthy?

Honorable mentions: Carson Palmer, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Justin Forsett, Sidney Rice, Michael Floyd, Rueben Randle, Martellus Bennett, Dwayne Allen, Dolphins D/ST

HacheMan · Aug 13, 2013

Malcom Floyd has strained knee

ESPN.com news services

SAN DIEGO -- Chargers wide receiver Malcom Floyd strained his right knee in a collision with cornerback Shareece Wright during practice Monday.
The team confirmed the injury Monday night but didn't release any other details. Sources earlier told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that the team initially feared Floyd had torn his anterior cruciate ligament.
Floyd had an MRI exam Monday night. A Chargers source texted ESPN's Ed Werder overnight regarding the test's results, saying "good news" without elaborating further.
The team's other starter at wide receiver, Danario Alexander, was lost for the season after he tore the ACL in his right knee in a collision with Wright last Tuesday.
Floyd went down after his collision during one-on-one drills and was in obvious pain. At one point, several teammates knelt around Floyd as he was tended to by trainers.

Asked to describe the play, rookie coach Mike McCoy, who's been loath to discuss injuries, said: "I'm not going to get into all the little details of that. He went down. I'm not going to put it on any player or anything like that. He went down."
Recovery time could be two to six weeks, depending on the severity of the strain.
Last Tuesday, McCoy downplayed the injury to Alexander in his post-practice news conference. A few hours later, the team announced Alexander had a torn ACL.
Floyd has been solid during his Chargers career but also has been slowed by injuries. He has played in 16 games only once, in 2009. He missed two games with an ankle injury last year but still led the Chargers with a career-high 56 catches, for 814 yards and five touchdowns.
After Floyd got hurt, Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown were working with the first team. Royal was slowed by injuries last year, his first with San Diego, and Brown missed all of 2012 after breaking his left ankle in a preseason game.
"It's the bad part of the game, but it's all part of it," McCoy said. "It gives other people opportunities, whatever the situation is, and they've got to step up. We'll move on, see what happens."
Quarterback Philip Rivers said it was a tough injury.
"You hate it happening to anybody, obviously, but Malcom, there's not much better than him on and off the field," he said. "Obviously we don't know the extent of the injury. It didn't look good. There's been a lot that didn't look bad and ended up real bad and some that looked real bad and ended up OK. We'll just hope for the best."
Also Monday, rookie linebacker Manti Te'o said his sprained right foot is getting better. He was hurt in Thursday night's exhibition loss to Seattle. McCoy said Te'o will be out this week, including Thursday night's game at Chicago.
"I just stepped a little wrong. I just felt something at the end of the game so I went to get it checked," Te'o said. "When you're in the middle of the game, you don't really think about what's going on."
Te'o played in two series and didn't have a tackle.
"I did all right. I didn't do as well as I wanted to, but I think I did all right," he said. "It was my first time out there. It was OK. ... It was good to get the first-game jitters out, and now I can relax and just realize that it's just football.
"As rookies, when you first get out there, no matter how much you try to relax, it's something you've worked your whole life, and to not be nervous is kind of impossible."
Te'o said it'll be disappointing missing the Bears game since it's so close to Notre Dame.
"Any time I don't get to play it's very disappointing, especially playing in Chicago and knowing a lot of people there, with Notre Dame being right there," he said.
"It was definitely something I was looking forward to but thankfully Coach McCoy allowed me to go so I'll still be there. I just won't be able to play."
Running back Danny Woodhead, meanwhile, danced around several questions about the mysterious injury that has sidelined him. He did some work on the side Monday.
"Honestly, I'm just doing everything Coach is telling me and everything that I'm supposed to do and try to get better," said Woodhead, who apparently learned the code of silence from Bill Belichick while playing for the New England Patriots the past three years. Now he's playing for McCoy, who gets curt when asked about injuries.
Asked for an example of one thing he's trying to get better at, Woodhead said: "Being a better friend to Darrell Stuckey."
Stuckey is a fourth-year safety.
Practice ended a few plays earlier than normal when star tight end Antonio Gates made a nice catch of a pass from Rivers.
"I made a little side bet with somebody if the last play worked, we'd take two to three plays out of practice," McCoy said. "We had a short-yardage period, and I said if we hit the big one, we'll cut it down, and Philip hit Antonio for the big play so we said, 'That's enough.'"
Asked who the bet was with, McCoy said, "It doesn't matter."

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2013

[h=1]Flag-planted players for 2013[/h][h=3]Colin Kaepernick, Giovani Bernard, Danny Amendola have great draft-day value[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Daryl Richardson, RB, St. Louis Rams: This isn't an indication that I've "figured out" how the Rams' backfield is going to go. I'm always highly dubious when beat reporters declare camp battles over in the second week of August, and I'm not invested in reading exhibition-game tea leaves. But what I won't undervalue is the fact that Isaiah Pead, Richardson's primary RB competition, is suspended for Week 1. In my mind, that gives Richardson a chance to put up a strong first game against the Arizona Cardinals and wrest the headliner's job for himself. Certainly, there's a reason Richardson saw time in Pead's stead behind Steven Jackson last year. This is still likely to be some manner of platoon (potentially with rookie Zac Stacy involved, too), but I've changed my mind about which half I like best. And, for a 12th-round pick (Richardson's ADP as of this writing), I'm willing to put Richardson on my bench and hope for great things. Rating: 2.5 Flags (out of 5).

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: I know. I'm not breaking new ground on Shady. But breaking new ground isn't the point of this column; I'm looking for value. And if I'm picking toward the end of the first round, I think McCoy gives you the kind of value others don't. On average, he's the 13th player getting selected in ESPN drafts, and the 10th rusher. On my board, he's the No. 8 RB, but, more importantly, is also the No. 8 overall player. I'd take McCoy before I'd take Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees (in addition to Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris). I suppose folks feel burned after the final year of the Andy Reid Experience in Philly, in which Shady was on pace for a crummy season even before he got concussed. But there's a new sheriff in town, and Chip Kelly doesn't have Reid's aversion to the run game. (If the Eagles run on only 40 percent of their plays, as they did last season, I'll be shocked.) No, you'll never get the ridiculous 20 total TDs McCoy scored in 2011, but I'm not that worried about Bryce Brown (or, rather, I think Kelly wants to run it so much that there will be plenty of work for McCoy and Brown). Richardson's injury concerns ding him a bit; Morris doesn't play on third down; and RB is so scarce that, as long as there are strong options left on the board, I can't go QB or WR. McCoy is my guy late in the first. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).

Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants: I look at Randle and I see his fellow LSU alum Dwayne Bowe: not an elite speedster, not among the hugest WRs, but a ridiculous leaper who can be a red zone threat even if he's not his team's top wideout. (Randle also has the benefit of better hands than Bowe had at the same age.) Add the fact that Hakeem Nicks is a leg injury waiting to happen and Randle has a legit chance to be more than Eli Manning's No. 3 guy. Obviously, Nicks and Victor Cruz will be drafted an hour before Randle will. But that's the point: Randle is essentially undrafted in ESPN leagues at the moment but absolutely should be taken in all leagues. There are multiple routes to fantasy relevance for him, which means he's the kind of lottery ticket worth scratching. Rating: 3 Flags (out of 5).
It's that time again. Flag time.

If there's one column I write each year that elicits more anticipation than all others, you're reading it. This piece was born six years ago when I realized how easy it is to fall into the trap of being in love with too many players. When you become as familiar with NFL personnel as I get from watching film, you can find something nice to say about lots and lots of players. You can see everyone's upside. And your advice tends to get a little vague. Six years ago, I was doing a radio interview when the host asked me to name a couple of favorite sleepers. I rattled off about 20, and realized I had a problem.

So the "Planting My Flag" column was born to generate discipline.

I'm allowed 10 names here, and 10 names only; the 10 players about whom I'm most excited for 2013. Now, it's important to note that I'm not saying these "Flag Players" will be the best at their respective positions. I'm saying that, given their respective risks, I really like the potential rewards. In other words, I think these 10 players represent the greatest available draft-day value.

Last year's column was a mixed bag. I endorsed C.J. Spiller, Stevan Ridley and Percy Harvin, but I unfortunately also listed Peyton Hillis, Philip Rivers and Titus Young. Oh, Titus! Of course, I still maintain that a player with Young's skills with a different man's maturity level would've thrived in 2012, but alas, that's simply raging against the sky. In the past, this column has also predicted breakout seasons for Jamaal Charles, Mike Wallace and Matthew Stafford, and hopefully I'll knock a few more out of the park below. Without further ado, let's get to the Flag Players:

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots: Let's start out with a controversial selection, shall we? You know the story: Amendola played in 12 of a possible 32 games with the St. Louis Rams over the past two seasons, but he gets a great chance in a Pats offense that lost Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez this offseason. It comes down to this: If Amendola stays healthy, he's dramatically undervalued as a late fifth-round pick in ESPN standard drafts. It's true that rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have been nice stories, and I'm personally of the mind that Rob Gronkowski will miss minimal time in September. But someone has to be Tom Brady's workhorse, and I believe Amendola will be that guy. He can run Welker's slot routes, but he can also play outside, get deep and produce breakaway plays. Listen, taking Amendola is about wagering on his health, but I've come around here a little bit. Remember when Stafford was utterly hands-off because he "always got hurt?" Remember when Frank Gore couldn't stay healthy? That's the question for Amendola: Is he one of those guys, or is he Darren McFadden? Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).

Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago Bears: Through four games with the New York Giants last year, Bennett had 16 catches for 187 yards and three TDs, but he hyperextended his left knee in Week 5 and played hurt after that. The Giants didn't want to pay him big money this winter, so he left for Chicago, where he'll rely on the party line: Marc Trestman is going to fix everything that ever ailed Jay Cutler and the Bears' offense! To say the least, I'm skeptical of that; Trestman isn't going to play offensive line. But Bennett is a terrific blocker, and that could help. More importantly, though, he's a value play in the great tight end middle class. I rank 6-foot-6, 270-pound Bennett as my No. 7 TE, and he's being drafted as fantasy's No. 13 TE, but the larger point is that it's basically a wash from No. 6 to No. 14. So, why be the fantasy owner who grabs one of these guys first? Wait, wait and wait some more, then draft Bennett, a player with as much weekly freak-athlete upside as anyone who plays the position. He'll get you 600 yards and six TDs, with the same number of ebbs and flows as tight ends drafted six rounds before him. Rating: 2 Flags (out of 5).

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: BenJarvus Green-Ellis is going to lead the Bengals in rushing TDs, and I don't care. Bernard is the player you want to own here. Where "the Law Firm" is plodding, Gio is fast. Where the Law Firm makes nobody miss, Gio is electric. A rookie out of the University of North Carolina, Bernard buckles knees in the style of C.J. Spiller; his collegiate game tape is filled with examples of elite change-of-direction skills and ridiculous acceleration. I'm also heartened to hear that Bernard has started training camp well in pass protection, which can be a rookie rusher's downfall. Listen, his ceiling is firmly capped. He's probably not a top-20 fantasy RB by season's end. But, as a 10th-round pick in standard leagues, he's a steal nonetheless. Feel great about him as a top-end bench player, and watch the highlights come. And if Green-Ellis gets hurt, look out. Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).

Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions: Viva Titus! The logic behind drafting Titus Young last year is even stronger in '13, considering Stafford just set the single-season record for pass attempts in a season. The Lions desperately need another wideout to emerge opposite Calvin Johnson, where single coverage should be plentiful. Broyles certainly would've been that man if he hadn't torn his right ACL in December. Amazingly, though, the recovery time for this once career-killing injury keeps getting shorter, and Broyles reportedly looks tremendous in training camp. Nate Burleson has a good pair of hands but can't run well anymore, so I expect Broyles to flirt with 100 targets this season. Of course, he has to stay healthy; he has torn each ACL in the past two years. But, at the price of a very late-round pick (on average in standard leagues, he's been undrafted), Broyles is well worth it. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams: Givens made my "Super-Deep Sleepers" list last season (the '13 version of that column will arrive next week) and rewarded me with a five-game stretch in which he made at least one play of 50-plus yards. That wasn't enough to make him an every-week fantasy starter, but it certainly helped him emerge from a jumbled Rams receiving corps. Now paired with rookie jitterbug Tavon Austin, Givens has a chance to diversify his game, much as Mike Wallace did in his second year. When you have 4.41 wheels like Givens, you're a threat to take one deep every week. But more important is whether he has added precision to his cuts and footwork; early word out of Rams camp indicates he has. It takes a leap of faith to imagine that Sam Bradford is ready to produce two fantasy-relevant WRs, but fortunately Givens comes at the price of a 12th-round reserve. He'll be on my fantasy bench in a whole lot of leagues in '13. Rating: 3.5 Flags (out of 5).

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Sometimes you look at a player who bursts onto the scene midway through the previous season and say, "I'm not buying high on this guy." Other times you say, "I can still get in on the ground floor." I'm in the latter camp when it comes to Kaepernick. I know seven regular-season starts is a small sample size. I know losing Michael Crabtree has sent the Niners scrambling for solutions opposite Anquan Boldin in their WR corps. And I know the 49ers were the third run-heaviest team in the NFL last season. Plus, I'm in agreement with those who say defenses will begin to catch up with the read-option. But the fact is that the 49ers didn't really even use the read-option much until the playoffs last year, and Kaepernick was still deadly running the ball. I grant that any running QB has injury risk, but Kaepernick is 6-4, 230 pounds. He can approximate Cam Newton with his legs and is already more accurate than Newton as a passer. Doubters ask me why I downgrade Russell Wilson for his so-so receiving corps while letting Kaepernick slide. My answer? One of these guys has the size, power, arm strength and freakish athletic talent to take over a game every time he's on the field. That guy is Kaepernick. Rating: 4.5 Flags (out of 5).

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers: A second rookie rusher? Oh, boy. There's a danger in loving the new bright shiny players too much, because we haven't seen them fail yet. But Bernard and Lacy were my No. 1 and 2 dynasty league players this spring, and I give them each a chance of contributing as first-year options. Clearly, you'll have to invest more in Lacy than Bernard (they have a 39-pick difference in average draft position), but that reflects Lacy's extreme upside. No, the Packers haven't featured a dominant fantasy rusher in any of the past three seasons, but I don't believe that's because of a systemic disdain for them. Mike McCarthy was the team's head coach from 2006 to 2009 when Ahman Green and then Ryan Grant were top-20 fantasy backs. Lacy is a stud. He's 231 pounds of power with elusiveness that belies his size, and I'd take him before players such as Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles, who on average get drafted 1 1/2 rounds before Lacy. Doubters will contend that, inside an opponent's 5-yard line last year, the Pack threw it 15 times and handed it to RBs just five times. I say that happened because Lacy wasn't on the team yet.
Rating: 4 Flags (out of 5).

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2013

Revised sleepers and busts

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Fantasy owners are always on the lookout for sleepers and busts. Remember, a big to key winning your league is finding the best value with your draft picks. Landing a star in the later rounds can give your lineup a boost or become a trade chip to land an elite player. Meanwhile, dodging a highly ranked player in the preseason who fails to live up to expectations can put you in better situations as the season progresses.

So, we're back to update our sleeper and bust picks for the 2013 fantasy football season. We originally published our list back in June when our draft kit first launched. However, plenty of things have changed since then, whether it be injuries, surprising performances in training camp and/or preseason games, shifting coaching philosophies, or other news. Some of our analysts have overhauled their sleepers and busts; others stayed the same.

For the purposes of this exercise, our sleepers are players not likely to be drafted as a starting option in ESPN standard leagues, according to our consensus preseason rankings, but who could be solid contributors or even become superstars this season. Conversely, most of our busts are players likely drafted as starting options, according to our consensus preseason rankings, but who could fail to live up to expectations.

Our analysts (Matthew Berry, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Shawn Cwalinski, Ken Daube, Christopher Harris, Dave Hunter, KC Joyner, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, AJ Mass, Jim McCormick, James Quintong and Field Yates) were asked to provide one sleeper candidate and one bust candidate each at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. They then offered up analysis of some of their choices.

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
[h=4]Quarterback[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Alex Smith	Andrew Luck
Cockcroft	Ryan Tannehill	Peyton Manning
Cwalinski	Ryan Tannehill	Matt Ryan
Daube	EJ Manuel	Matt Ryan
Harris	Sam Bradford	Michael Vick
Hunter	Ryan Tannehill	Colin Kaepernick
Joyner	Carson Palmer	Andy Dalton
Karabell	Ryan Tannehill	Michael Vick
Lipscomb	Alex Smith	Tom Brady
Mass	Ryan Tannehill	Colin Kaepernick
McCormick	Alex Smith	Colin Kaepernick
Quintong	Ryan Tannehill	Cam Newton
Yates	Carson Palmer	Robert Griffin III

Sleepers
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: Palmer posted 16 or more points in eight games last year. That per-game scoring pace is roughly the productivity level one seeks in a starting fantasy quarterback, and Palmer tallied those numbers on an Oakland Raiders offense that had across-the-board pass-game personnel issues. He now joins an offense with a vertically inclined play-caller in Bruce Arians and a top-flight caliber wideout in Larry Fitzgerald. The schedule will preclude Palmer from being a QB1, but he will provide a strong spot-start/QB2 option for what likely will be an incredibly low draft-day price. (KC Joyner)
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Expectations for Tannehill won't be too high this season, but adding the young quarterback as your No. 2 or bye week fill-in is a decent risk. Tannehill should cut down on his turnovers with a year of seasoning and added maturity under his belt, and the addition of Mike Wallace will give him a more permanent downfield passing option. (Dave Hunter)

Busts
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers: The loss of his best wideout in Michael Crabtree, along with an already-thin depth chart at the position, could make Kaepernick's first full season as the starter a bit more trying than his sensational first run through the league. I could still see some strong numbers emerge when you add up the ground production and dangerous playmaking ability, but given how amazingly deep quarterback is, I find it difficult to endorse Kaepernick as a top-eight option when guys such as Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have more fertile statistical situations with similar -- or quite a bit lower -- price tags. (Jim McCormick)

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: I'm not saying Manning is a bad pick, but his value in fantasy is his relentless year-over-year consistency, not his ability to win you ballgames on his own. The problem, however, is that he's going to cost you the price of the latter; and, in a year like this, rich in quarterback depth, that is not a smart buy. Manning is 37 years old and had two sub-15-point fantasy games in his final four last season; it's fair to wonder whether the age curve has sapped him of any future upside. (Tristan H. Cockcroft)

[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
[h=4]Running Backs[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Andre Brown	DeMarco Murray
Cockcroft	Zac Stacy	Frank Gore
Cwalinski	Ronnie Hillman	Montee Ball
Daube	Zac Stacy	Montee Ball
Harris	Shane Vereen	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Hunter	Eddie Lacy	David Wilson
Joyner	Daryl Richardson	Fred Jackson
Karabell	Joseph Randle	Darren McFadden
Lipscomb	Shane Vereen	Frank Gore
Mass	LaMichael James	C.J. Spiller
McCormick	Joseph Randle	Matt Forte
Quintong	Justin Forsett	LeSean McCoy
Yates	Danny Woodhead	David Wilson

Sleepers
Justin Forsett, Jacksonville Jaguars: Remember when he once entered the season ranked near the top 20 among running backs? He's not there now, but he did average 5.9 yards a carry as a backup for the Houston Texans last year, and he's familiar with the zone-blocking scheme the Jaguars are looking to employ. With Maurice Jones-Drew still recovering from a foot injury, Forsett could be in line for chances and actually thrive, at least in short bursts. (James Quintong)

Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys: A highly productive collegiate career, soft hands and a nose for the end zone are just a few of the positives you'll find on Randle's scouting report. The most promising element for Randle's rookie season in Dallas, however, has less to do with his skill set and everything to do with the fragile back ahead of him on the depth chart, DeMarco Murray. Given Murray's issues staying on the field, the potential for Randle to earn a handful of 2013 starts, if not more, is pretty high here. (McCormick)

Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams: As noted in my recent article on the 10 most undervalued running backs, Richardson does a superb job of gaining yards when given good blocking. Add that to his 36 targets in part-time play last year and his currently being listed as the Rams' No. 1 back and it makes him the best candidate to possibly replicate Alfred Morris' come-out-of-nowhere dominant 2012 season. (Joyner)

Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers: Did you know that Woodhead had more fantasy points and a higher yards-per-carry mark than Ryan Mathews last season? Woodhead also had 194 more receiving yards on one more reception. Woodhead did all that with a top-10 fantasy back starting ahead of him; Mathews is not a top-10 fantasy RB. Woodhead might not be worth starting at RB every week, but he is at least a solid flex consideration. (Shawn Cwalinski)

Busts

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: The ESPN.com NFL draft profile for Ball includes these comments about his blocking ability: swings and misses a bit too often ... doesn't anchor well ... an average cut blocker. Ball must overcome those negatives to be the clear starter for the Broncos, who won't put Peyton Manning's health in the hands of a rookie running back who is lacking in pass protection. (Ken Daube)

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: Let me know when McFadden plays a full season. Even when he did play last season, he certainly wasn't very good. (Eric Karabell)

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: Doug Marrone certainly is talking up Spiller as Buffalo's lead back. In an offense that won't shy away from the ground game, there's every reason to be excited about a guy who was pigeonholed into being used only as a "role player" in the past. That said, I think the hype needle has gone too far in the other direction and Marrone is just as likely to use Fred Jackson for quarters at a time. (AJ Mass)

David Wilson, New York Giants: Talent didn't limit Wilson to 75 carries as a rookie in 2012; reliability issues and veterans ahead of him on the depth chart did. And, although he's the leading candidate to start for the Giants this season, we all know Tom Coughlin has little tolerance for missed assignments as a pass-blocker and fumbles. If Wilson has issues with either thing early (which he did last year), it wouldn't come as a surprise to see his role decrease. Also, Andre Brown likely will get the bulk of the goal-line carries, as he did last season. (Field Yates)

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
[h=4]Wide Receivers[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Emmanuel Sanders	Mike Wallace
Cockcroft	Alshon Jeffery	Reggie Wayne
Cwalinski	DeAndre Hopkins	Danny Amendola
Daube	Justin Blackmon	Cecil Shorts
Harris	Rueben Randle	Wes Welker
Hunter	Brian Quick	Mike Wallace
Joyner	Cecil Shorts	Danny Amendola
Karabell	Vincent Brown	Danny Amendola
Lipscomb	Ryan Broyles	Danny Amendola
Mass	Aaron Dobson	Victor Cruz
McCormick	Chris Givens	Mike Wallace
Quintong	Mohamed Sanu	Randall Cobb
Yates	Julian Edelman	Mike Wallace

Sleepers

Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars: I completely understand the perceived value impact of Blackmon's suspension to start the season, but it shouldn't scare you. You can easily draft Blackmon as your fourth or fifth wide receiver, which means there's almost no chance you'd plan on playing him until bye weeks roll around anyway. He'll be back and well rested by then, which gives you a wide receiver with top-15 upside and virtually no downside. (Daube)

Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers: I kept waiting for Brown to get healthy last season and it didn't happen, but he's been lining up with the first team on occasion this summer, a nod to his tremendous upside and clear health. Brown showed glimpses of his exceptional ability in 2011, and the broken ankle cost him 2012. Don't forget his name later in drafts, for there's room for a new No. 1 target to emerge. (Karabell)

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: Someone has to catch all those passes from Tom Brady, and, although Edelman was missing from action to start training camp, he has returned and already looks up to speed coming off of a foot injury. Creativity has long been a staple of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' résumé, and look for him to find ways to manufacture touches for talented but injury-prone Edelman. Whether it's replicating some of what Wes Welker did (which Danny Amendola will be counted on to do, too), taking carries from the backfield or even working on the perimeter as a receiver, Edelman is in line for his biggest pro season yet. We're hedging our bets on his health, but the possible return is too savory to ignore. (Yates)

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: Part of this is that I'm simply not a believer that Brandon Marshall can eat as large a slice of the Bears' receiving pie as he did last year; at 41 percent, Marshall's targets-per-route ratio last year was the highest of any receiver in the past four seasons. The rest is that Jeffery is more than talented enough to be a viable No. 2 NFL wideout, having averaged 15.3 yards per catch in limited time in 2012. I think he could realize borderline WR2/3 potential -- if he can just stay healthy. (Cockcroft)

Busts

Danny Amendola, New England Patriots: Yes, he's inheriting the Wes Welker go-to receiver role in the offense, but he's no Wes Welker. He definitely will catch his share of balls, but his seven career TDs in four years and the fact that he has missed 20 of 32 games the past two years don't inspire confidence as a No. 2 WR. (Keith Lipscomb)

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins: Because of the big contract and Ryan Tannehill's solid completion numbers on deep balls (37 percent, eighth-best among QBs with at least 35 attempts of 21 yards or greater), I know some people are expecting big things in Florida this year. I'm not one of them. Too inconsistent for me. He had seven games last year with five or fewer fantasy points, including four games with zero or one point. Going from Big Ben to Tannehill is a downgrade, and, when your yardage goes from 1,257 to 1,193 to just 836, you're heading in the wrong direction. Wallace is not a top-20 WR. (Matthew Berry)

Wes Welker, Denver Broncos: Let me paint you a picture. The great Welker -- who has the NFL's most catches over the past six years -- comes to Denver and continues to play well out of the slot. But the workload isn't quite there; with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker around, Peyton Manning relies less on Welker's middle-of-the-field brilliance than Brady did in New England. Instead of 11 targets per game, now Welker sees eight. Instead of 18 red zone targets in a season, he gets 10. As a result, instead of his standard 1,300-yard, seven-TD season, Welker puts up a perfectly reasonable 80 catches, 1,100 yards and five TDs. But instead of being a borderline top-10 WR, now he's borderline top 20 and not worth his average draft position. (Christopher Harris)

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
[h=4]Tight Ends[/h]

Analyst	Sleeper	Bust
Berry	Rob Housler	Vernon Davis
Cockcroft	Fred Davis	Kyle Rudolph
Cwalinski	Jordan Cameron	Rob Gronkowski
Daube	Fred Davis	Kyle Rudolph
Harris	Jordan Cameron	Greg Olsen
Hunter	Jordan Cameron	Jason Witten
Joyner	Brandon Myers	Martellus Bennett
Karabell	Fred Davis	Vernon Davis
Lipscomb	Coby Fleener	Rob Gronkowski
Mass	Travis Kelce	Vernon Davis
McCormick	Dwayne Allen	Owen Daniels
Quintong	Zach Miller	Kyle Rudolph
Yates	Heath Miller	Kyle Rudolph

Sleepers

Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns: Cameron has all of 26 catches in two NFL seasons, so he's far from a sure thing. But the pieces add up. He's big and athletic, and his new play-callers are Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, who've spent their NFL lives turning their tight ends into fantasy stars. Relying on Brandon Weeden might be a sucker bet, but, in a deeper league, I like the idea of drafting Cameron late. (Harris)

Fred Davis, Washington Redskins: Don't listen to anyone who says Davis and RG III didn't have chemistry last year. Through the first six weeks of the 2012 season, Davis averaged 52 receiving yards per game. Since Tony Gonzalez averaged just 60 receiving yards per game over the entire season, did he have lousy chemistry, too? Of course not. The chemistry misconception is caused by the abnormality of Davis not having any touchdowns. That's not going to repeat; take advantage of the undervaluing of Davis on draft day. (Daube)

Rob Housler, Arizona Cardinals: I've just always liked him from a skill stand point. He's 6-foot-5 and athletic, moving fast for a big guy. His problem, of course, is that he has never had a quarterback. Now he does in Carson Palmer, who last year targeted Brandon Myers 105 times, the fourth-most targets by a tight end. If you decide to wait on tight end, a flier at the end of your draft on Housler could pay big dividends. (Berry)

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: I loved Kelce at the University of Cincinnati. He has the size and tenacity to take any reception and turn it into a huge payday. We all know Andy Reid's offense doesn't shy away from getting the tight end involved (Brent Celek, anyone?). Plus, Kelce is athletic enough to line up at wide receiver from time to time, as well as jump in as a Wildcat option under center should the mood strike. (Mass)

Busts

Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears: Last year, Bennett was on a New York Giants offense that does a fantastic job of getting maximum performance from its tight ends and he still managed to post only 86 fantasy points (tied for 13th). Now he goes to an offense that is hoping it can turn around a long history of getting subpar performances out of its tight ends. There are too many fantasy tight end prospects who are just as talented and have better situations to consider Bennett a potential starter. (Joyner)

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: The talent is definitely there, but the consistency is not. Although the nine touchdowns last year were nice, he also had three games with no receptions and seven games with two or fewer points. With Greg Jennings around to catch more passes, and Adrian Peterson doing his thing at the goal line, can Rudolph continue to be a red zone/TD factor, especially with the quarterback situation still less than optimal? (Quintong)

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: Is it a coincidence that Witten's TD production has gone down each season since 2010 and wide receiver Dez Bryant's has gone up? With increased looks toward Bryant and fewer red zone targets for Witten, expect much of the same: good yardage totals with limited TDs. Use the draft slot where Witten would normally go on another RB or WR, and wait for a better value a few rounds later. (Hunter)

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

Fantasy football lists galore!

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Things change. Year to year, week to week, game to game, things change. Fantasy sports value, strategy and evaluation change consistently and constantly.

The one thing that never changes? The lists. The people, they love the lists. They particularly like top 10 lists.
So here, once again, are 10 of them.
[h=3]List One: 10 stats that I couldn't fit into my 100 Facts to Know Before You Draft[/h]1. From Week 12 to 17 last season, Russell Wilson had 139 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring, second most among all players (Cam Newton was first, with 148) and he averaged 23.2 points per game. Week 12 of last year was the first week the Seahawks started using the zone read.
2. Speaking of Cam Newton, he has the most rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and third-highest rushing yards per game by a quarterback in his first two seasons in the Super Bowl era.
3. Newton is also one of only four quarterbacks in NFL history to attempt more than 1,000 passes in his first two seasons. The other three? Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe and ... Andy Dalton.
4. Last year, in 13 games under Cam Cameron, Ray Rice averaged 20.8 touches per game, including 2.4 red zone touches and 1.1 goal-to-go touches. In six games Jim Caldwell, including the playoffs, Ray Rice averaged 20.0 touches per game, 3.3 red zone looks and 1.7 goal-to-go touches.
5. If he had enough carries to qualify, Chris Ivory's yards after contact average over the past three years would be third best in the NFL.
6. Once Pierre Garcon came back in Week 12 last year, only Brandon Marshall and Michael Crabtree had more regular-season pass targets per passing routes run than Garcon.
7. Since becoming a full-time starter, Reggie Bush has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per reception on grass. On turf? He averages 5.0 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per reception.
8. Last season, the Lions targeted running backs 129 times and completed 99 passes to them.
<B<>9. Robert Griffin III had 10 games where he threw for 221 yards or fewer.</B<>
10. Last season, Ryan Mathews had 184 rushing attempts. Only two of them were inside an opponent's 10-yard line. Two.
[h=3]List Two: 10 wide receivers going in the 15th round or later on ESPN.com who could make you look really smart if you take a chance on them.[/h]1. Ryan Broyles, Lions: Stafford's going to throw over 700 times. They're not all going to Calvin.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings: Percy who?
3. Vincent Brown, Chargers: Oddly, the healthiest wide receiver they have.
4. Rueben Randle, Giants: Only a heartbeart away. Or a hammy. Or a hip. Or a knee. Or an ankle.
5. Austin Collie, 49ers: If healthy, it's not as if they have a full corps of receivers to throw to.
6. Andre Roberts, Cardinals: Actually led Arizona in touchdown receptions last year, such as it was, and the Cardinals are going to throw a lot under Bruce Arians. Carson Palmer told the Cardinals' official team site: "I expect Andre to have a huge year." Well, Carson would know.
7. Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots: Believe the hype.
8. Rod Streater, Raiders: Going to start now and it's not like this is a team that'll be grinding out 10-7 games. They'll be down and throwing. A lot.
9. Jeremy Kerley, Jets: Had 827 yards last year and there's no way the Jets offense can be as bad as it was last year, right? Right?
10. Aldrick Robinson, Redskins: I just like him.
[h=3]List Three: 10 things I've read that I'm buying[/h]1. That the Zach Sudfeld thing is real. (Boston.com)
2. That Alfred Morris is going to be "instrumental in our passing game." (Redskins.com)
3. That Ronnie Hillman is going to have value this year. (ESPN.com AFC West blog)
4. That Kenny Britt is healthy. (The Tennessean)
5. That Danny Woodhead is going to be at least half of the Chargers' RBBC. (U-T San Diego)
6. That DeAndre Hopkins is something special. (Houston Chronicle)
7. That Mark Ingram is going to be a post-hype sleeper. (Times-Picayune)
8. That Mike Wallace and his owners should be concerned. (NBC Miami)
9. That Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy and will be a steal in any draft where he goes outside the top 12 picks. (Florida Times-Union)
10. That Daryl Richardson is going to be a real nice flex fantasy back for someone this year. (ESPN NFC West blog)
[h=3]List Four: The 10 most common fantasy football team names on ESPN.com.[/h]
In other words, no, you're not the only one to think of it. Try again. 1. Victorious Secret
2. Prestige Worldwide
3. Team Awesome
4. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe
5. Stafford Infection
6. Da Bears
7. Password is Taco
8. Beast Mode
9. The Brady Bunch
10. Cruz Control
[h=3]List Five: 10 things I've noticed in the preseason games I've seen so far[/h]1. Forget the LeGarrette Blount thing, but New England not only wants to run, but they can run at will. Stevan Ridley is going to have a top-10 fantasy running back type season; he's a lock for double-digit touchdowns. And the play in the first game where Shane Vereen went out wide and got matched up on a linebacker? Expect to see that more often. He's going to be a really nice PPR RB2 in a 12-team league or a solid flex in a standard league.
2. Thanks to the rushing yards (28 yards in the first game on three rushes), if EJ Manuel becomes the starter in Buffalo, he has top-15 fantasy quarterback upside.
3. Improving the offensive line in the offseason was a priority for the Titans. It's very early, but so far I'd say they accomplished that. I like Chris Johnson a lot in the middle of the second round this year and don't be surprised if Shonn Greene winds up with eight touchdowns or so.
4. In his second game, Matt Forte had eight carries for 74 yards, which is fantastic, but it's preseason and it was against the Chargers. What was most impressive to me was that the Bears got to San Diego's 11-yard line and they gave the ball to Forte three straight times, including twice inside the 5-yard line. The second of those runs from the 5, he punched in for a score. If Forte is going to get goal-to-go rushes in Marc Trestman's offense, you're looking at a top-10 back.
5. I know, I know, I probably shouldn't be allowed to put Michael Vick's name in print anymore, but he has looked very good. My belief is that he wins the starting job and obviously, health is always the concern. But 13-of-15 for 199 and a score? Even if it was the preseason and despite not starting the second game ... he's going 16th among quarterbacks in the 12th round. Name another 12th-rounder who has top-five upside.
6. Either way, LeSean McCoy is going to have a monster year. Chip Kelly wants to run, run, run and even in preseason against the Panthers, averaging 5.9 yards per carry is nice.
7. Now do you believe the Jordan Cameron hype? The Cleveland Plain-Dealer has discussed how often Cameron is getting looks in practice, you saw the result of that with his two-touchdown game against the Lions and it's not an accident. Antonio Gates is the most obvious example, but Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski love to use the tight end. In fact, per ESPN Stats & Information, in Chudzinski's nine seasons as an NFL coach, his team's starting tight end has ranked in the top eight among tight ends in targets in six of them, with at least 100 targets in five of them.
8. Cleveland also wants to get Josh Gordon involved and he's going to have a really nice year. I love the stat I used in Love / Hate: Over the past five years, only the Colts attempted more passes 15 yards or more downfield than Norv Turner's San Diego Chargers. Norv's calling the plays in Cleveland now and the suspension has lowered Gordon's draft-day stock.
9. One last Browns nugget: The Browns defense is a lot better than you think. Could sneak into the top 10 as a fantasy defense, yet another reason there's no need to draft one until the final two rounds.
10. So much for the concerns of Jay Cutler spreading it around. In Game 2, he attempted five passes. All five of them to Brandon Marshall.
[h=3]List Six: 10 players who are at least one or two rounds more valuable in PPR than in standard scoring.[/h]Suggested by Alex Fuller on my Facebook page 1. Giovani Bernard
2. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell
3. Jason Witten
4. Wes Welker
5. Danny Amendola
6. Danny Woodhead
7. Calvin Johnson (he's top five overall in PPR).
8. Shane Vereen
9. Brandon Myers (and his former teammate Marcel Reece).
10. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders.
[h=3]List Seven: 10 funniest (that I can print!) team names suggested to me by my followers on Facebook and Twitter.[/h]I will say that Carlos Danger was a popular choice, as were plays on Manti Teo's imaginary girlfriend and the Mark Sanchez Butt Fumble. The TV show "The League" and the off-the-field issues of Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper were popular inspirations. If I don't list a person by the team name, it means multiple people suggested it. I was just as surprised as you that so many people suggested No. 10, incidentally, but there it is.
1. Spiller Me Timbers - @c_dickey
2. Addai late, Amendola short - @BenKors
3. Pop a Kaep - @dcrines
4. The SchaubNado - @camronfaulkner
5. Good Schaub, Good Eifert
6. Luck Dynasty
7. Everyday I'm Russelin'
8. Badonkagronk
9. 1.21 JJ Watts – Brandon Doner
10. I blame Matthew Berry
[h=3]List Eight: 10 completely unsexy guys who no one will be impressed with when you draft them, but will give solid production.[/h]1. Ahmad Bradshaw: Good pass-catcher and run-blocker who will be the Colts every-down back.
2. Dwayne Bowe: Going to be a top-10 wide receiver this year.
3. Steve Johnson: Three straight 1,000-yard seasons.
3. Miles Austin: Had double-digit fantasy points in eight games. I get the injury concern but by comparison, Mike Wallace had five such games last year and is going five rounds before Austin.
4. Rashard Mendenhall: Going to be a starting running back with a coach he's had success with in the past. Going in the ninth round.
5. DeAngelo Williams: I'm not a fan, but Jonathan Stewart's injury is serious and, in the 10th round, the price is right.
6. Lance Moore: Always underrated.
7. Malcom Floyd: Assuming health, someone's got to catch it in San Diego. I like Vincent Brown more, but Floyd is going in the 14th.
8. Jason Witten: If you don't want to wait and play tight end Russian Roulette, Witten is very reasonable in the sixth round.
9. Denarius Moore: He's going undrafted in some leagues. Just because they are bad doesn't mean they're not going to throw.
10. Matthew Berry: If you use my advice to win, you can claim you knew it all along, and if it doesn't work out, you can blame me. Perfect setup.
[h=3]List Nine: 10 Guys who never wind up on my team in any of the mock drafts I do.[/h]1. Aaron Rodgers: I just never take a QB early enough to get him.
2. Julio Jones: Super-talented but too pricey given he still disappears from time to time. Six games last year with six or fewer fantasy points.
3. Frank Gore: Think he'll be fine but there's always someone who believes in him more than I do.
4. Darren McFadden: But only because I don't want to hate my team.
5. DeMarco Murray: Injury prone and he's a Cowboy? No thanks.
6. Marques Colston: More than half his points last year came in four games.
7. Vernon Davis: I never own him.
8. Mike Wallace: See List Three, No. 8.
9. Anquan Boldin: Going ahead of guys such as Greg Jennings, Tavon Austin, Cecil Shorts ... insane. Hasn't had a 1,000-yard season since 2009.
10. Andre Johnson: He's not going to score very much (they run when they get close), so hate to count on his health, especially when he's going ahead of guys such as Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker, Randall Cobb and others I like more.
[h=3]List 10: More of the best team names (that I can print!) suggested to me on Twitter.[/h]1. The Pitta Despair and My Name is Inigo MonteeBall - @itsbenrealfun
2. Gronk if you love Breesus - @JZollman1
3. Tavon in 60 seconds - @JAdamBrooks
4. Football on my phone - @CodyKeyser
5. Martin Scorecrazy - @RavenNation21
6. As long as I got my suit and T.Y. - @DaNasty21
7. What Would Jones Drew - Josh Halilel
8. My Jim Schwartz are dirty - Robert Arthur Green
9. Julio I Ate The Bones
10. Matthew Berry's Book Plug - Matt Riddle

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

[h=1]Contract-year myth[/h][h=3]The motivation is real, but improved production is another matter[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Show me the money … or don't. Doesn't make much difference to me.

This column begins with that clichéd quote for an important reason: When it comes to the topic of "contract-year players" -- players destined for big years as they play out their final seasons before free agency -- those four words are a fantasy analyst's crutch. Go ahead, do a quick web search; you'll find countless columns praising the merits of the contract-year theory that begin with that quote.

[h=4]2013-14 FREE AGENTS-TO-BE[/h]The following 27 players, all of whom are top-200 picks in terms of ADP (through Aug. 15), will become unrestricted free agents at season's end.

Player	<CENTER>Pos</CENTER>	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Age</CENTER>
Anquan Boldin	WR	SF	32
Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	Ind	27
Kenny Britt	WR	Ten	24
Austin Collie	WR	SF	27
Jay Cutler	QB	Chi	30
Fred Davis	TE	Was	27
Eric Decker	WR	Den	26
Ed Dickson	TE	Bal	26
Jermichael Finley	TE	GB	26
Josh Freeman	QB	TB	25
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	26
Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	Ind	26
Jacoby Jones	WR	Bal	29
James Jones	WR	GB	29
Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	Jac	28
Dustin Keller	TE	Mia	28
Darren McFadden	RB	Oak	26
Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Ari	26
Santana Moss	WR	Was	34
Brandon Myers	TE	NYG	28
Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	25
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Det	28
Andre Roberts	WR	Ari	25
Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Pit	26
Ben Tate	RB	Hou	25
Golden Tate	WR	Sea	25
Michael Vick	QB	Phi	33

It's therefore somewhat appropriate that such a cliché -- and one from an overrated movie, at that -- is so frequently attached to a crutch argument.

Let's face facts: There is a significant gap between contract-year motivation and contract-year production. Every impending free agent is driven by the former. Not every one enjoys the latter.

You might think players like Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden and Jermichael Finley, each of whom is headed for free agency at season's end, warrant the extra buck in an auction merely because they're playing for a payday. Jones-Drew, in particular, should be a popular such example. He's 28 years old with more than 1,500 career carries on his legs, meaning he's likely facing his final big payday. He's also coming off a disappointing campaign during which he was limited to a career-low six games due to a Lisfranc fracture that eventually required surgery. There's every reason to believe he'll be plenty motivated as he plays for a new deal.

The unfortunate truth, however, is that, in the past eight seasons, "draftable" contract-year players -- we'll define these as top-150 players going by ADP (average draft position) -- suffered a 6.9 percent drop in fantasy production comparative to their previous three seasons' average.

That number might not mean anything to you, as any experienced fantasy owner is familiar enough with the laws of regression to understand that any select player sample is at risk for an overall drop in production. But this number might: Non-free agents during that same span suffered a 3.2 percent drop in fantasy production compared to their previous three seasons' average.

Now, those same experienced fantasy owners might also understand that these two samples are of rather different sizes: There were more than six times as many in the latter group than the former group. Point taken, but if there was any validity to this "theory," wouldn't you have expected starker contrast in favor of the contract-year group, even as small as it is?

Fantasy analysts are correct to point out contract-year standouts of the past: Randy Moss (2007), Mike Anderson (2005), Brandon Jacobs (2008), Ray Rice (2011), Ahmad Bradshaw (2010), Drew Brees (2011), Marshawn Lynch (2011) and Shaun Alexander (2005) all managed at least 150 fantasy points, as well as an increase of at least five points per game compared to their previous three seasons' average, in seasons before becoming unrestricted free agents. There are many historical success stories in the contract-year class.

The contract-year busts list, however, is every bit as extensive. Larry Johnson (2009), Moss (2010), Willie Parker (2009), Ahman Green (2005), Rudi Johnson (2008), Brett Favre (2010), Jamal Lewis (2005), Steve Smith (2010) and Ronnie Brown (2010) were all top-60 picks -- that's an ADP in the first six rounds of a standard ESPN league -- who suffered a decline of five or more fantasy points per game comparative to their previous three seasons' average. And if you're counting, that's one more bust than success story.

You can see further details of this study in the chart below, with statistics broken down by different positions, ADPs and types of free agents.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

	<CENTER>Previous 3 seasons' AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>Previous season</CENTER>	<CENTER>Contract year</CENTER>
Type	<CENTER>No.</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPPG</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPPG</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPPG</CENTER>
All free agents	145	13.1	108.1	8.2	13.7	122.6	8.9	13.8	106.0	7.7
Restricted FAs	22	10.5	73.9	7.0	14.5	124.7	8.6	14.4	111.5	7.8
Top 50 ADP	40	13.6	145.7	10.8	14.7	173.1	11.8	14.2	147.9	10.4
Quarterbacks	8	14.7	198.0	13.5	15.3	217.6	14.3	14.3	186.5	13.1
Running backs	64	12.6	111.3	8.9	13.1	123.5	9.4	13.3	103.7	7.8
Wide receivers	56	13.2	100.0	7.6	13.8	117.3	8.5	14.2	102.4	7.2
Tight ends	11	13.6	54.4	4.0	14.2	68.6	4.8	13.8	77.4	5.6

The lesson is clear: There is no such thing as a blanket "contract-year theory."

There is only contract-year motivation; and that is subjective -- not objective -- fantasy analysis. In short, you shouldn't be using lists of prospective free agents to blindly identify values; you should be using them as yet another tool, and a small one, preferably one coupled with better tools for identifying values.

That's where we return to Jones-Drew.

Jones-Drew isn't a potential fantasy value merely because he's playing for a new deal. Flash back to two sentences above, which explain why he fits the description: "He's 28 years old with more than 1,500 career carries on his legs, meaning he's likely facing his final big payday. He's also coming off a disappointing campaign during which he was limited to a career-low six games due to a Lisfranc fracture that eventually required surgery." Couple these facts with his contract status and then, and only then, does the argument make sense.

He's not the only such example … but again, before we get to the list of this season's prominent impending free agents, remember that it is a subjective list:

Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants: He's coming off the worst campaign of his young, four-year career -- his 82 fantasy points in 2012 were actually fewer than his 109 from his rookie season of 2009 -- and it was one marred by knee issues that eventually required surgery. Groin issues have also hampered him throughout camp, but you can be sure that if Nicks can possibly push through any pain, he will … maybe even to his own detriment (now or later). Here's one way in which contract-year motivation counts: If you're betting on an injury risk, bet on one playing for a payday.

Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints: He suffered a 43-point decline last season, and he led the NFL in drops (13), so Graham does have room to improve. He's also coming off wrist surgery, and, unsurprisingly, he has worked hard to get back to full speed in time for camp. Graham also has another factor working in his favor: With fellow tight end standout Rob Gronkowski an injury risk himself, Graham has a chance to steal the position's spotlight for himself; that's important as he sets his market value.

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans: Take a look at Britt and it's difficult not to see a potential fantasy stud. He has the size and speed to break out, and he'll enter free agency as one of the youngest players available. But here's the problem: Britt has had trouble staying on the field, having suffered significant knee injuries in back-to-back seasons, and off the field he has had his issues in the past. With renewed focus, he might finally be ready to realize his potential … in NFL season No. 5.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: He's the forgotten man among quarterbacks this season, mostly because of the richness in talent at the position, but among No. 2 options in two-quarterback leagues (or backups in standard formats), his ceiling ranks among the highest. Sure, blocking has been a problem for Cutler in Chicago, but knowing that he's playing for a new deal, perhaps he'll put his worries to rest and fling it with confidence in Marc Trestman's offense. After all, the team should have a healthy, developing Alshon Jeffery and free-agent signing Martellus Bennett as weapons.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy QB draft debates[/h][h=3]Cam or Tom? Ryan or Kaepernick? Stafford or RG III?[/h]
By Tim Hasselbeck | ESPN Insider

"Get ready for Hassel-Vick!"
That's what my New York Giants teammates on the defensive side of the ball joked as I got ready for practice. Believe it or not, out of the QB options on the roster, I was the best fit as a stand-in for Michael Vick. Yep, comb-over and all, it was me.
The other option was the "Hefty Lefty" Jared Lorenzen, and while he was left-handed like Vick and could fire a pass as hard as Vick, let's put it nicely and say that the running advantage was mine.

So I prepared as much as possible to get through practice without injuring myself. I ran around like crazy doing my best impersonation and immediately hit the cold tub after practice.
Back then, Vick was the only true runner at quarterback that anyone feared. Nowadays, there seems to be one in almost every division. The running quarterback has become somewhat commonplace, and so has its fantasy value and success. Let's face it: Having a QB who can deliver fantasy production with his feet has become the great equalizer.
That brings us to this season's fantasy draft. When faced with a decision between a classic drop-back guy and one of the running QBs, which direction should you go? Here is my take on some particularly interesting debates between three pairs of QBs with contrasting styles that are being drafted in similar spots thus far.

[h=3]The Debates[/h]

Tom Brady, New England Patriots
ADP: 22.9, No. 4 QB
vs.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 31.3, No. 5 QB

<OFFER></OFFER>
While it's been popular to beat up on the Patriots offense this offseason in regard to all of Brady's pass-catchers either being on another team (Wes Welker), injured (Rob Gronkowski) or no longer in the picture (Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd), let's remember that this is Tom Brady. In case you've forgotten since last seeing him in action, he's only one of the best passers this league has ever seen. Though we all got a brief scare when Brady was knocked out of a preseason practice, the injury turned out to be minor, so I'm not concerned.

Brady is going to throw at least 600 times this year, he's going to finish around 4,500 yards, and he's going to have more than 30 TDs, because that is his new normal in an offense that runs more plays than any other team in the league. For all the talk about how bad the supporting cast is, I believe the Patriots have a group that is more than capable of getting it done. Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola, Gronk (whenever he returns) and Zach Sudfeld will create matchup problems because of their versatility. And remember, Brady hasn't always had the greatest supporting cast on paper but he's delivered elite production no matter who was on the other end of his passes.

A year ago, I was banging the drum for Cam. Based on the way that he had been used his rookie season, his rushing stats were not a fluke. In fact, during both his first and second seasons as a Panther, he was absolutely their best goal-line back. With designed goal-line carries, designed carries in between the 20s and "Cam being Cam" when things would break down on a passing play, his rushing numbers remained fairly consistent between Year 1 and Year 2.
But this offseason, there has been a strong desire to change all of that. As Mike Shula has taken over play-calling duties, the Panthers have not been shy about their desire to limit the number of times Cam is the featured runner on a designed run. They have three running backs who are quite capable when healthy and would much rather see Cam develop more as a passer and less as a runner. As a result, I think there will be a drop-off in his rushing numbers (and TDs) this season. Around 35 percent of Cam's fantasy points came on the ground last season, so you can see how this is a problem.
Bottom line, the Brady-Josh McDaniels offense isn't going to look all that different from what we've seen in the past, while Newton's rushing numbers may take a significant hit. Verdict: Brady.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 37.4, No. 6 QB
vs.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 40.7, No. 7 QB

Over the course of the 2012 season, Ryan put up 291 fantasy points, and tell me again how the Falcons aren't even more dangerous this season?
This guy simply gets better every year, with more than 4,700 passing yards and 32 TDs in 2012, all while completing more than 68 percent of his passes. He's entering elite company -- if he's not already there.

Atlanta also offers an outstanding supporting cast, and if it wasn't hard enough for defenses to corral Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez in seasons past, they now have to deal with Steven Jackson out of the backfield. Atlanta's coaches trust Ryan to have complete command at the line of scrimmage to be in the right play and to make adjustments if he sees an opportunity. This is a bigger deal than some people realize.
Ryan threw the ball 615 times in 2012, which is around 38 times per game. That many passes to a collection of playmakers like that sounds like an equation for fantasy riches.
I think Kaepernick is a star, and I think he is going to get better. I liked him coming out of college, and I liked the Niners' decision to go with him over Alex Smith. But truth be told, there are flaws in his game as a passer and he has lost his best wideout (Michael Crabtree) to an Achilles injury. Now his No. 1 guy is a player who is well past his prime (Anquan Boldin) and is no longer a big-play threat because he can no longer create separation from defensive backs.
We will see a consistent theme in how defenses deal with Kaepernick this year. They will do everything they can to make him throw from the pocket as much as possible, and while he should improve in that area, there will be some struggles. As with Cam, reducing his production on the ground will have a big impact on Kaepernick's fantasy value, as 71 of his 164 points last season came from rushing yards and TDs.
There is less of a chance for this pick to be a bust, considering that these players are generally going in Round 4, when they're being taken by teams that have probably already addressed WR and RB (and probably multiple players at RB). However, I'm sticking with the conservative drop-back guy, because I think there's less risk and he could easily be in the running to be the best at the position in fantasy points any given week. Verdict: Ryan.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
ADP: 57.4, No. 9 QB
vs.
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
ADP: 48.1, No. 8 QB

With Stafford, let's turn up the volume, as in number of passing attempts. Over the past two seasons, Stafford has almost 1,400 attempts. Seriously, he's close to averaging 700 attempts a year over that time. Those are insane numbers.
Also working in his favor is how this team is built. They have the best wide receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson, good complementary WRs, two athletic tight ends (Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler) and Reggie Bush, who caught 161 balls his first two years in the NFL. I wouldn't be shocked if Stafford throws it 750 times this season and gets near (or over) 5,000 yards again.

Stafford had, let's face it, some pretty bad luck in 2012. There were 10 times in 2012 when a player caught a pass from Stafford and was tackled inside the 10-yard line only to have the Lions run the ball in with someone else (or kick a field goal). That's a lot of points going elsewhere, and with better luck, his TD total will go up.
Here's a stat for you: RG III threw for fewer than 210 yards in eight games a year ago. It's his running ability that makes him special -- his rushing yardage and TDs produced 123 fantasy points last season -- and it just seems as if there is going to be such an emphasis on protecting the guy this year.
Whether it's limiting the number of designed runs for Griffin or his eagerness to get down or out of bounds once things break down, I think we are going to see the number of those big running plays reduced compared to a year ago. There's also the health issue: He didn't finish two games he started and didn't play in another at all, and the Redskins don't plan on playing him during the preseason.
With his good supporting cast, better luck and a ridiculous number of attempts for one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the game, I'll take him over the oft-injured runner a round later, no question. Verdict: Stafford.

[h=3]Extra Point[/h]
Carson Palmer is undervalued right now, based on a number of factors.
In his first year in the NFL, Andrew Luck threw the ball more than 620 times in Bruce Arians' offense. Carson is now going to be running that offense, and he'll be surrounded by more perimeter talent than Luck had a year ago -- and way more talent than he was used to in Oakland.
Protection will be an issue. He'll get hit a lot, which no doubt will lead to interceptions as the mental impact of all that pressure is tougher than some people realize. But Carson will throw for more than 4,200 yards and more than 25 touchdowns in this offense, and I think those are somewhat conservative numbers considering he had more than 4,000 yards in Oakland last season.
Palmer is currently being taken in the 14th round alongside Sam Bradford. Really? I think he's undervalued here. With Larry Fitzgerald as his main target, there are going to be weeks where Carson finishes as a top-10 QB in fantasy, and I believe he'll be a top-15 fantasy QB when we look up at the end of the year. This late in the draft, Carson is a steal and great insurance.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

[h=1]Fantasy value of Packers RBs[/h][h=3]Where to draft Eddie Lacy, Johnathan Franklin and the rest[/h]
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider

Just when we thought we had a feel -- or at least a loose grip -- for how the Green Bay Packers' running back rotation would work in 2013, head coach Mike McCarthy uttered six words whose impact was felt throughout the fantasy football world, "I view him as our starter."
After impressing at an intrasquad scrimmage, and showing a penchant for gaining tough yards that had been missing from the team's backs in recent seasons, second-round pick Eddie Lacy must've been the subject of McCarthy's designation. After all, he was viewed by many during the pre-draft process as the closest thing to an every-down back in the class.
Guess again.
Perhaps instead McCarthy was alluding to fourth-round pick Johnathan Franklin, another favorite among draft gurus, particularly for his abundant receiving skills and vision.
Nope.
Alas, McCarthy was actually speaking of a running back who was removed from the physically unable to perform list on Monday, one who was selling used cars in Jacksonville prior to being signed to the Packers practice squad in October of 2012.
DuJuan Harris was a late-season revelation for Green Bay, providing a spark for a running game that needed it down the stretch. Though not a star, Harris showed an ability to impact both the running and receiving game (he had 100 total yards in a playoff win over Minnesota), a welcomed addition to the often-imbalanced (and yet unequivocally potent) Packers attack.
But it's uncommon for a team to invest in two players at the same position within the top 125 picks of the draft if it feels fully comfortable with its current group, leading many to suspect that the starting job would come down to the superior performer during training camp between Lacy and Franklin.

We shouldn't take McCarthy's words to mean that the race for the starting job is over; after all, Harris needs to get fully healthy (knee), and few position battles are decided more frequently during preseason games than those at running back.
And we shouldn't expect the starter to be named sometime soon, either. This may not happen until the week leading up to the regular-season opener.
But before we get any further on how fantasy owners should invest in these Packers backs, let's examine the merits of each from a scouting perspective.

Harris, although undersized at 5-foot-9 and 208 pounds, is unafraid to duck a shoulder at the point of contact and take on an oncoming defender. He has good decisiveness, the quickness to stick a foot in the ground and cut and, as previously mentioned, he's a reliable pass-catcher.
Lacy, the star of last season's BCS Championship Game, has the brightest long-term outlook, particularly with his ability to gain yards both with his power and ability to make defenders miss in the hole. He caught the ball well in the aforementioned title game against Notre Dame, and he's already making use of his muscle this preseason (concerns about his weight stemming from an unflattering photo early in camp have also cooled).
Franklin, meanwhile, has strong vision and can carry a heavy load, catch the football and make players miss in space. He's not an elite player from a speed standpoint, but he's faster than Lacy and has similar lateral elusiveness. The drawbacks on his game include his inability to churn through tacklers on a consistent basis, pass protection and whether or not the fumbling issues that bothered him early on at UCLA have been entirely rectified.
The sample size of NFL game action for the rookies is small, as Franklin recorded eight touches during Green Bay's preseason opener, while Lacy missed the contest altogether with what sounds like a mild hamstring pull.
So, at least for now, we're in the business of role projection, a fitting exercise for a game -- fantasy football -- rooted in projection.
The fantasy staff of ESPN.com has Lacy ranked 25th among running backs entering the season, with Franklin further behind at 34th. Harris, meanwhile, is buried down at 79th, a ranking that was determined well in advance of McCarthy's comments.
The question becomes: How much stock should be put into McCarthy's words? Or, perhaps just as important, is the threat of a running back-by-committee approach in Green Bay too severe to invest in any of them as a consistent producer?
Let's start with McCarthy's remarks (which he reinforced upon Harris being lifted from the PUP list).
A deceptive ploy?
No, that's probably not it. Rather, he could believe that it's just too soon to hand a job over to one of his rookies, particularly with a player still in the mix who performed at a decent clip at the tail end of last season.
But the potential for a committee approach in Green Bay bears monitoring. Even those who weren't counting on Harris making noise had to deal with the reality that Franklin and Lacy -- to some degree -- would offset each other. If, for example, it was Lacy -- and not Montee Ball or Le'Veon Bell -- who had been drafted by Denver or Pittsburgh this year, we might be promoting him as a top-15 running back option. When the Packers made Lacy their own second-round choice, speculation of him becoming the feature back in Green Bay quickly made the rounds, only to be tempered just as swiftly when Franklin was drafted by the team a day later.
As if the balance of Lacy, Franklin and Harris wasn't enough with which to contend for potential fantasy owners, consider this: The Packers gave 19 combined carries during the preseason opener to James Starks and Alex Green, each of whom the team at one point thought enough of to invest a draft pick. The backfield options in Green Bay are, in a word, voluminous.
So let's cut to the chase: All these backs, what to do?
The discussion begins with Lacy. He's the most talented of the group and, based off of practice report write-ups, has been the most impressive on the field. He has the requisite tools to be a load carrier for an offense, and while we're not counting on a Green Bay offense rooted in the I-formation, the Packers were 16th in the league in 2012 with 433 rushing attempts as a team.
Our bet is on Lacy to lead the Packers in carries and also in goal-line opportunities. That part is good, but good enough to invest in him as a starter on a fantasy team? I think so, as the talent is obvious, and the opportunity to push for double-digit scores (hey, even short-yardage scores count for six points), is too good to pass up. The Packers rushed for just nine scores as a team last season. That's a figure Lacy could surpass on his own. Should Harris prove to have more of a role than originally anticipated, it's more likely to impact Franklin (whose skill set is more similar to Harris') than Lacy. By that logic, 25th among running backs -- in the range of the likes of Chris Ivory and Lamar Miller -- makes sense for the Alabama product.
On Franklin, there's an element of wait-and-see. My view is that he's sliding down toward the fringe of being a bench player, but you could do worse as a low-end flex. Assuming he gets the chance to catch the football (perhaps in a third-down role), he could have PPR relevance. As with Lacy, those with a long-range scope should consider Franklin in dynasty leagues. Eventually, these two could be a one-two punch in Green Bay without distraction from the others. For this season, Franklin is worth a late-round flier.
As for Harris, though McCarthy's endorsement carries some weight, we're not ready to buy in. He's a nice player (and better story), but he's not on the fantasy radar entering 2013. The same goes for Starks and Green, who have all of two rushing touchdowns on 371 combined attempts.
For those drafting closer to the start of the regular season, keep an eye on the progress of this running back competition in the coming weeks. For those needing to make a decision sooner, hedge your bets on Lacy and consider Franklin later, as you fill out your roster and begin to build your bench.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2013

Scouring the Chargers for sleeper options

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

For a franchise that has delivered fantasy superstars of varying high-end degrees over the years, things have really changed for the San Diego Chargers. I was trying to figure out if there is any NFL team with players whom fantasy owners are less enthusiastic about drafting, and I couldn't come up with one. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars have starting fantasy-caliber running backs and wide receivers. The Cleveland Browns have a fantasy first-round running back, the Arizona Cardinals a potential top-10 wide receiver. And the Chargers have … Ryan Mathews and Vincent Brown?

That's not to say the Chargers will be terrible this season. They're never terrible. The Chargers tend to disappoint, especially in the early months of the season, but it has been a decade since the franchise won fewer than the seven games it won in 2012. In terms of the individuals and their fantasy prowess, wow, think about what used to be: LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and yes, even Philip Rivers used to be dominant fantasy options as Chargers.

Now we're stuck with a turnover-prone Rivers, the brittle and underachieving Mathews, a 54-year-old Gates (or so it seems) and a bunch of wide receivers nobody has heard of. Perhaps that's a tad mean, but are you really coveting any Chargers this season? Think about it.

<OFFER>A Charger has indeed been on my sleeper list for months, but that was back when I thought Vincent Brown, who missed all of 2012 because of an ankle injury, was a true draft-day bargain. It was when everyone had forgotten about him and hadn't considered he would leap over Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd to become Rivers' top target. Alexander blew out his knee a few weeks ago; Floyd hurt a knee earlier this week, though it's unclear how much of September he'll miss. That essentially vaults Brown, who is still mighty unproven, into a larger role, perhaps the largest role. He was so underrated that he'll perhaps soon become overrated for fantasy purposes.

Ultimately, someone has to catch the passes that Rivers throws, and while the veteran quarterback is no longer anywhere near a fantasy starter and probably doesn't even make the cut in two-quarterback formats, he still threw the ol' pigskin enough to reach 26 touchdown passes, a top-10 statistic, in 2012. He also turns the ball over a lot, doesn't pile on the yards and offers little running the ball, but the point is, he needs people to throw to, and so far August hasn't been kind in that respect.

I still like the talented Brown to step up and emerge. He's not a burner and he's not big-bodied, but he's known for his route-running and reliable hands. Hopefully he's healthy. We're not talking about a 75-catch season or 1,000 yards, but there is upside since opportunity has clearly presented itself. Floyd's situation remains a bit cloudier; it was initially feared that he had torn his right ACL during Monday's practice, but the team is calling it a knee strain. Regardless, it's not likely Floyd is playing the first few weeks of the season. Brown was on my sleeper list because he was being initially undrafted, but I see enough talent here for him to become a relevant fantasy option for deeper leagues. Now he's one of the fastest-rising options in ESPN drafts, yet he's owned in barely a third of standard leagues.

Rookie Keenan Allen, a third-rounder in the 2013 draft, has more size and bulk than Brown, and remains off the fantasy radar. It could be that Allen is the better value pick if Brown moves too far up the draft boards. This could be the starting wide receiver tandem for an NFL team in three weeks! It has to be the most unheralded in the NFL. Mind you, ESPN Fantasy doesn't project any Chargers player to catch more than 50 passes, with Gates, whom I'd consider after the top 10 tight ends, leading the way. It's possible no Chargers receiver truly steps up, but I'd still take Brown late in a 10-team standard format, and Allen and Floyd in a 12-teamer. By the way, in a PPR format, I'd take a close look at running back Danny Woodhead late. He could end up leading the Chargers in receptions! As for Mathews, who had more broken collarbones than touchdowns last season, I've had enough of him.

The Chargers boast precious little depth, prompting calls from some for them to sign a proven veteran free agent such as Brandon Lloyd or Laurent Robinson. Sure, they'd become instantly relevant for bench roles in fantasy should the Chargers sign them, but it hasn't happened yet. I hope it doesn't. Let's see what Brown and Allen can do. Meanwhile, Eddie Royal is slated to handle the slot role for Rivers, and former New Orleans Saints wideout Robert Meachem remains on the team, which, based on his uninspiring 2012 campaign, might be the most positive thing we can say about him. Fourteen receptions in 15 games? Not good at all.

Brown is going to exceed expectations, and I say he catches 57 passes for 828 yards. Nothing special, but not the worst bye-week fill-in option. Woodhead will catch 59 passes. Remember, only one quarterback threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage last season than Rivers, and since Woodhead is so good at catching the ball and Mathews has performance and health issues, it's reasonable to like Woodhead. I'll give Allen 50 catches and Floyd 45 over, say, 13 games. This is not a proven corps of wide receivers, but someone has to step up. Seems to me it's gotta be Vincent Brown.

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2013

Officially concerned about Arian Foster

Eric Karabell

It was an exciting second preseason weekend in the NFL, with performances large and small, important injuries and still, my biggest takeaway -- and I suspect I’m hardly alone -- is the fact Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak finally acknowledged the Arian Foster situation is becoming a problem. "It’s something that’s going to take some time for him to get through," Kubiak said of Foster’s back injury, which has required injections. "The running back picture is concerning."
Well then! Foster, who did not appear in the team’s Saturday night win against the Miami Dolphins, might not appear in practice this week as well, and with the season quickly approaching, it seems only fitting he moves down from being my No. 2 overall pick. I don’t need to get hit over the head by one of the many red flags!

Foster, arguably the hardest-working running back the past few seasons, is clearly hurting, and the Texans can’t pretend -- and aren’t -- that it’s nothing to worry about. Foster dealt with a calf injury earlier in the summer and was on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Now the problem is back soreness causing pain in his legs, with an "injection process" attacking the issue. Look, I’m hoping Foster will be fine for Week 1 and Week 17 and all the other weeks in between. This isn’t me exalting backup Ben Tate, whom I have been touting all along, into Round 2. (Not yet, at least.)
Foster still has time to get healthy for the games that count. But how can fantasy owners simply ignore this critical risk any longer? Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice and others -- like Jamaal Charles -- could be hurt right now or tomorrow, but I’m not worried about their Week 1 availability. The Foster situation bears more than watching at this point. Ten days ago I was sticking by Foster, despite mild performance and workload concerns. The risk is too great now.
Similarly, Tate keeps moving up in my rankings, though it is worth pointing out he too has missed time with a groin injury and, other than a 9-yard scamper in Saturday night’s 24-17 win over the Miami Dolphins, was pretty quiet, finishing with 12 rushing yards on four totes. Deji Karim, the former Jacksonville Jaguars reserve, has apparently impressed in camp and picked up nine carries Saturday, turning them into 55 yards. It would appear that he’s next in line after Foster and Tate, and while I wouldn’t consider him with a pick yet for standard drafts, that day could be coming. The Texans run the ball a ton -- in part because they have Foster, of course -- but also because their offensive line is terrific, and the zone-blocking system thrives for them. Well, Tate could be a first-round talent if Foster needs to miss significant time, and Karim could matter, too. Hopefully Foster is fine, but back injuries scare me, enough at this point to move Martin, Lynch, Rice and Charles ahead of him, and I admit LeSean McCoy and C.J. Spiller are thisclose to passing him as well.
Injuries continue to play a major role across the league, though nobody of Foster’s fantasy caliber was hurt. Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker, perhaps a bit too trusted as a mid-fourth-rounder in ESPN ADP, suffered a sprained right ankle, though it does not appear to be the dreaded high ankle sprain, which could cost him a month. The durable Welker is not expected to miss more than a day or two of practice, if that. Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kendall Wright sprained a knee in Saturday’s game and is expected to miss the rest of the preseason, perhaps regular-season games. Wright was certainly worth drafting before the weekend -- he was my No. 45 wide receiver -- and while I moved him down a bit, the fact is he wasn’t starting for your fantasy team anyway, so the risk of taking him versus Welker as your top wide receiver isn’t comparable. Finally, the Miami Dolphins lost tight end Dustin Keller to a gruesome knee injury, ending his season before it started. I didn’t have Keller ranked, but he was among my top 20 tight ends. I’m keeping my eye on rookie Dion Sims, but the position is so deep, we’re far away from seeing him become fantasy relevant.
Here are more thoughts from yet another busy preseason weekend:

• Broncos rookie running back Montee Ball is clearly talented, more so than Ronnie Hillman, but he must be able to block well enough to protect Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning. On Saturday, he was overpowered on a blitz and Manning was hammered. I’m not moving Ball in my rankings yet, but face it, if Knowshon Moreno can block, he’ll play over the kids who cannot. Moreno was already in my rankings, but late.
• The New York Jets scored 37 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Former Chicago Bears reserve Kahlil Bell signed with the Jets a week ago, and rushed for two third-quarter touchdowns, but Bilal Powell impressed with his 68 rushing yards on seven carries, including a 37-yarder that was furnished with a hole so large I think Mark Sanchez could have run through it. Powell isn’t special, and Chris Ivory is the starter when healthy, but don’t we have to at least acknowledge that point seems unlikely?
• The other New Jersey team saw its top wide receiver, the solid Victor Cruz, leave Sunday night’s game prematurely with a bruised heel, but it didn’t even necessitate a walking boot during or after the game, so file this under “no big deal.” The Giants' first-team offense looked well against the Indianapolis Colts, especially running backs David Wilson and Andre Brown. This really could be a thriving running back tandem, though Wilson is being drafted as the surefire No. 1 guy. I’m guilty of this as well, but I moved Brown up a bit.
• I’ll have more on sleeper tight ends soon, but Cleveland Browns athlete Jordan Cameron was one of the weekend stars for his pair of touchdown catches Thursday night. We’ve said it before and will again, but offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a history of relying on tight ends, and Cameron has the skills to crack the top 10, in part because after the first five or so tight ends most everyone else is lumped together.
• As for the rookie running backs, Eddie Lacy looked tough and strong for the Green Bay Packers, gaining 40 yards on eight carries. Diminutive Giovani Bernard ran for 37 yards while Cincinnati Bengals starter (for now) BenJarvus Green-Ellis sat. And Arizona Cardinals fifth-rounder Stepfan Taylor, while still third on the depth chart, is behind players battling injury. With each practice Ryan Williams and potentially Rashard Mendenhall misses, you’ll hear more about the Stanford product Taylor.
• Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel isn’t a factor in standard redraft leagues yet, though it’s easy to see how with his running prowess he could be for deeper formats. Regardless, Manuel will miss the rest of the preseason after a minor left knee procedure. Kevin Kolb, I think we’d all admit, is not very good, and is not blocking a healthy Manuel. If your league is deep or it’s a dynasty format and you’ve already chosen Manuel, don’t drop him because of this news.

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2013

Arian Foster, Houston Texans: It might not be a preseason without an Arian Foster soft tissue injury. We all remember the infamous hamstring MRI image Foster tweeted two years ago, which sent fantasy owners into a panic. No MRI images this time, but the sight of Foster on crutches in May might have had the same effect. The crutches help offload the calf so he is not forced to push off through the leg while walking, allowing the muscle to recover with the goal of minimizing any risk of worsening the situation. No panic is necessary this time, but it does remind us that Foster's body is a finely tuned machine. The same physical qualities that make him such a talented back may also make him susceptible to intermittent soft tissue strains. Still, despite a heavy workload as a starter, he has played in all 16 games two out of three seasons. Foster should be ready for the season, even if the team opts to lessen his workload during training camp, and the one place it won't shy away from using him is in the red zone. As long as he stays healthy, he will be highly productive, but a bit of risk comes with the territory.

Addendum: It's Aug. 19, and Foster, still on the PUP list, has yet to participate in a team practice. Now should fantasy owners be worried? They wouldn't be unjustified in being a little apprehensive, but it might be a mistake to panic. While Foster's situation bears monitoring, it's not yet clear whether the back ailment currently sidelining him (yes, his back, not his calf, is keeping him out of practice at the moment) will present a problem for him once the regular season arrives.

Here's the information we have. On Aug. 18, head coach Gary Kubiak acknowledged that Foster's back soreness -- which cropped up during the preseason -- is still present. Kubiak said Foster has been receiving injections as a measure of treatment for the back soreness but noted, "It's causing some discomfort and it's something that's going to take some time for him to get through." Kubiak said that Foster has more recently experienced some soreness into his legs, a byproduct of his injection treatment. When asked if there was concern about nerve damage with Foster, Kubiak said, "No, they've done numerous MRIs and everything looks fine. They're just trying to make sure that he's comfortable with how he is feeling and where we're at before we say 'go.'"

Although he said he believes players need to get practice reps to be ready to play, Kubiak conceded that doing whatever it takes to get Foster back healthy for the season is the priority. "We've got to do the smart thing here," said Kubiak, adding, "… when he's ready to go, I know Arian can make up a lot of time very quickly."

There are a couple of takeaways from Kubiak's comments that should be considered positives. The first and most obvious is that all the imaging studies done on Foster's back look "fine." The interpretation then is that there is no large herniated disk impinging on a nerve, no significant bone spur or any other obvious structural finding that would pose a bigger cause for concern. Also, it is not uncommon for individuals to experience soreness both locally (in the area of the initial problem) and referred (in another area related to but removed from the original site of the symptoms) following spinal injections. The expectation, if all progresses well, is that those symptoms will resolve in time for the start of the season, as long as no activity provokes them in the interim. This may be the reason the medical staff wishes to grant Foster some additional downtime. While it would be nice for Foster to get some reps and work at game speed before Week 1, especially to provide peace of mind for all interested parties that he is indeed healthy, he has shown in the past that he can ramp up his activity quickly and be successful.

It would seem the biggest potential concern with Foster would be for him to return to action too quickly, not only because his back soreness could spike but also because it could translate to a problem for his hamstrings. Low back pain and hamstring strains can be interrelated; one consequence of back pain can be guarding or protective spasm in the hamstring muscles which, in turn, can make the hamstrings more susceptible to injury. Even if Foster could forcibly push through discomfort in practice, the Texans would not want him to return only to leave with a more serious hamstring strain that could sideline him for multiple weeks.

The Texans plan to re-evaluate Foster on Tuesday, at which point the outlook for his health should become a bit clearer. If he is indeed able to return to practice within a few days and ease his way back into action, there would be little doubt about his availability for Week 1. This back injury might then translate to a slightly increased risk for Foster going forward, but it wouldn't significantly affect his value. If, however, Foster is not cleared to return to practice for the remainder of the preseason, the questions about his health -- and the apprehension -- should justifiably increase.

Information from ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli was used in this report.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: When Jones-Drew injured his left foot last year, no one knew it would be season-ending. In fact, the team went from one week to the next expressing hope Jones-Drew could return. Unfortunately, some midfoot injuries are tricky, in that they are not serious enough to warrant immediate surgery yet ultimately fail to respond to conservative treatment. Such was the case for Jones-Drew and after he was unable to progress during the season, he underwent surgical stabilization in December. After several months of being in a boot, Jones-Drew is on the rehab train and making progress. Although he is not participating in June minicamps, the expectation is that he will be on the field when the Jaguars' training camp begins in late July. While the increase in his activity will be gradual, if there are no setbacks he should open the season on time. The relatively uncomplicated repair of Jones-Drew's injury bodes well for him going forward, and it's worth keeping in mind he is still only 28 years old. To date, he has one of the best track records as far as health for a running back, playing all 16 games in four of his seven seasons. Last year was the first season in which he played fewer than 14 games. While this injury takes him down a notch in terms of percentage of games played in a year, it shouldn't lessen his overall draft stock significantly, especially given that his knees benefited from some additional rest last year. As long as his football conditioning improves along with his foot, there is little reason for concern with Jones-Drew.

Addendum (Aug. 2): Jones-Drew was on the field with his teammates when training camp opened, albeit on a limited snap count. Still, he has been participating in both running and passing plays and introducing his foot to cutting maneuvers. The Jaguars maintain they will ease him back into action, but so far, so good for a target of Week 1.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts: It took a while for Bradshaw to find a home, but by the second week of June he had landed in the Midwest. The Colts obviously felt his talent outweighed the risk of resurgence of foot problems which have plagued Bradshaw for several years. Should fantasy owners feel the same way? In a word, yes. Bradshaw underwent another surgical procedure on his foot to address a chronic non-union in his fifth metatarsal (it had been surgically repaired with a screw once in 2010, then addressed with a paste when he began having troubles due to a stress injury, but ultimately required a second surgery to replace the screw). Now that Bradshaw has had a more extensive stabilization combined with adequate time to recover, the stress fracture should no longer be an issue. He expects to be ready to participate in training camp in late July. His feet and ankles may not be perfect, but even last year Bradshaw showed his willingness to play through pain. He also sustained a neck injury in 2012 which kept him out for a game and does raise a concern of potential recurrence. With only a one-year contract, however, Bradshaw needs to make the most of his time and should see his fair share of action in Indianapolis.

Addendum (Aug. 2): Bradshaw opened the preseason on the Colts' PUP list and remains in a walking boot on his surgically repaired right foot. This is not overly alarming, though, given that the goal is to have a healthy Bradshaw for the regular season, not the preseason. There is no need to subject his foot to excess work out of the gate, and the Colts had previously indicated they planned to ease him into the mix in camp. The expectation is still that Bradshaw will be ready by Week 1.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Peterson put any and all critics to rest with his dominating performance in 2012 fresh off ACL/MCL surgery on his left knee. He was so fresh off the injury, in fact, that the Vikings did not confirm his Week 1 playing status until hours before kickoff, torturing fantasy owners far and wide. But the pain of the uncertainty heading into the season wore off quickly, as Peterson delivered week in and week out in a way no one could have predicted. Unfortunately, he has set the bar for performance following ACL surgery at a virtually unattainable level for all those who come after him; his recovery was the exception, not the rule. While no one is concerned about his knee heading into this season, Peterson did undergo a different offseason procedure this year, specifically a core muscle surgery (formerly known as a sports hernia repair). Somehow, Peterson continued to perform well despite the presence of the injury late last season and once the Vikings were finished, he took care of the issue via an operation. After going through intensive rehab last year, Peterson has indicated this recovery is like a walk in the park. Any doubters out there in fantasy land? Didn't think so.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: Unlike in 2011, Lynch was not scratched from a game during warmups in 2012, but his back did continue to bother him occasionally. Despite appearing on the injury report for multiple weeks last season, Lynch played in all 16 games for the first time in his professional career. The back troubles are not likely going away, but neither are Lynch's touches.

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns: One thing you have to acknowledge about Richardson: He knows how to play through pain. Richardson played in 15 games in his rookie year, despite entering the season fresh off of arthroscopic knee surgery and suffering a significant rib injury in Week 6 (the only game he did not play was in Week 17 due to a high-ankle sprain). Alarm bells sounded during OTAs when the Browns announced Richardson was dealing with a shin injury which would sideline him until training camp. The shutdown here is proactive, as the concern would be progression toward a tibial stress fracture, which could ultimately sideline him for multiple weeks. Early rest should allow him the opportunity to heal before the season begins. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Browns do expect him to be ready for camp in July. His workload in his final college season at Alabama, along with his rookie year in Cleveland, have some worried -- especially given his injury history -- that he will not hold up for long. They might be right in terms of all-out NFL longevity, especially if he remains an every-down back. But, if his toughness is any indication, it will take something substantial to sideline Richardson on any given Sunday.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Last year, there was some uncertainty about what to expect from Charles heading into the 2012 season, as he was coming off of ACL reconstruction in his left knee. Fortunately for Charles, his injury happened so early in the 2011 season (Week 2) that he was itching to play by Week 1 of 2012. Despite playing in a mediocre offense, Charles had seven games in which he totaled more than 100 yards and ended up with more than 1,500 rushing yards on the season. Given that most football players have better statistics in their second year following ACL surgery, Charles should be primed for a big season. And with new head coach Andy Reid at the helm and quarterback Alex Smith under center, Charles may have even more reason to smile. He seems to be aware of the opportunity, telling the Kansas City Star in June, "This offense might be the best thing that ever happened to me." Charles did have his toe stepped on in OTAs in late May, but X-rays revealed no fracture and he resumed practice within three days. Fantasy owners have much to like here.

Addendum (Aug. 16): On Aug. 12, Charles went down with a foot injury in practice, and the social media world went into a panic. Now that the term "Lisfranc" is familiar to fantasy football audiences - it's often associated with ending seasons prematurely, as was the case with Santonio Holmes and Maurice Jones-Drew -- the worst was immediately assumed in Charles's case. It turns out that was a bit premature. Not only did Charles sustain a relatively minor injury, his pain wasn't even in the same area of the foot Lisfranc-type damage occurs. Charles experienced pain on the outside of his foot. As Chiefs' athletic trainer Rick Burkholder told reporters, "There's a tendon that attaches right at that spot and that's what is sore. … That's why they call it a strain and [now] he is sore up his leg, which is natural and we expected to see that."

Burkholder went on to say that Charles had also seen two orthopedic surgeons, noting, "We agree that he has a mild foot strain, and he is day-to-day." (Strain refers to a muscle or tendon injury, sprain refers to a ligamentous injury.) Charles will not play in the Chiefs' second preseason game as a precaution, but this should not threaten his status for Week 1.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys: Murray insists he isn't injury-prone. His history thus far in his young career suggests otherwise. In 2011, Murray played in 13 games before his season ended prematurely as the result of a fractured right ankle and high-ankle sprain. Last year, the number of games played dropped to 10 after a left foot sprain sidelined him for Weeks 7-12. When Murray returned to play, he never looked back and was able to run without issue the remainder of the season. Still, there are questions as to how he will hold up in this his third professional season. Given that he was largely held out of spring OTAs due to a hamstring strain, the worries remain, particularly since hamstring injuries have plagued him at various times since his college years at Oklahoma. For his part, Murray waved off the early preseason concerns, telling the Dallas Morning News, "I am going to play all 16 this year." I like the confidence and the talent but need the proof.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers: There is so much talent there that you want to believe in his potential. But there is also so much apparent fragility it's impossible to overlook the risk. When the number of broken clavicles in a season (two) outnumbers the touchdowns scored (one) for a running back, there is no denying the injury concerns. After a rookie year that was marred by a high-ankle sprain which seemed to linger, perhaps the result of attempting to return too quickly, subsequent soft tissue ailments in 2011 were significant enough to result in continued missed time for Mathews, even in the form of early exits if not entire games. The hope was that 2012 would be different, as the team looked to be leaning toward him for primary-back production. Then, on the first carry of the first preseason game, Mathews' first injury of the year happened; seemingly routine contact resulted in a broken right collarbone. The second clavicle fracture came in Week 15 against the Panthers and resulted in Mathews being placed on injured reserve. In between the two fractures, Mathews dealt with a minor ankle issue and neck stiffness, although neither kept him from playing, along with fumble challenges. Mathews is healthy as of this preseason writing, but given his history the question in everyone's mind is not so much can he stay healthy, but how long until the first injury crops up. Until he shows he can endure an entire season in the NFL, or even the majority of one, the risk appears to outweigh the reward.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: The 12 games McFadden played in 2012 were a big improvement over the seven he played the prior season, but he still has yet to post a full slate of games in the NFL. In 2011, a foot sprain turned from a week-to-week injury to a season-ender and it's hard to blame McFadden for something that should have been acknowledged sooner by the team. To his credit, he returned strong in 2012 and looked in the preseason as if it could be a banner year. The regular season disappointed, however, and a high-ankle sprain midway through did not help. Leg injuries have been McFadden's nemesis and are too numerous to ignore heading into this season. It's hard to believe he'll be only 26 years old when the season gets underway, but it suggests he's still got potential. That said, the injury frequency remains a worry for fantasy owners.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: Foot and ankle problems have been a sore spot for Stewart since he entered the league, but prior to 2012, Stewart had played in all 16 games in three of his four professional seasons. In fact, he had missed only two games in 2010. That changed in 2012 when Stewart was sidelined for seven games with a finicky high-ankle sprain, which ultimately required January surgery. The good news for Stewart is that Dr. Bob Anderson, his surgeon, is also a Panthers team physician and knows him and his history well, so he can be carefully monitored. His activity will be controlled throughout the summer, but the expectation is that Stewart will gradually increase his participation during camp. In Stewart's case, he largely has been able to stay on the field in his career, which bodes well, but the bigger question may be how the Panthers will view his role this season.

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: Jackson was as unlucky as any running back in 2012. After ending his 2011 season on injured reserve due to a fractured right fibula, Jackson worked hard to ensure he'd stay healthy the following year. Unfortunately, an awkward play in Week 1 resulted in a lateral collateral ligament (LCL) sprain in his right knee, which, he later told the Bills' official website, never fully recovered in-season. Jackson went on to sustain a concussion in Week 10, which caused him to miss a game, then sustained a Grade 2 medial collateral ligament (MCL) sprain (also to his right knee) in Week 14, ending his season. Although he's 32 years old, his route to the NFL actually resulted in less mileage during his earlier years and Jackson could still post a strong season in 2013, although that may depend on how much the Bills lean on C.J. Spiller.

2013 injury outlook: Running backs

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

preseason injury outlook on fantasy-noteworthy running backs. This column will be updated throughout the summer, and the latest information will appear toward the top of the column:

Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions: After serving a two-game suspension, Leshoure participated in the remaining 14 games of the 2012 season, despite entering the season coming off Achilles surgery and dealing with a variety of other ailments throughout the fall. Hamstring, groin and calf strains were all part of his in-season injury list and may have been associated, at least in part, with his return from serious injury. Power and explosiveness are usually lacking the first year following Achilles tendon repair and Leshoure's running should be improved heading into this season. For what it's worth, a hamstring ailment kept Leshoure out of early OTAs this spring, leading one to wonder whether that's a signal of more soft tissue injuries on the horizon. Now that Reggie Bush is in the mix in Detroit, Leshoure will have to show he can stay healthy enough to command more carries.