Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

HacheMan · Aug 25, 2011

Favorite Fliers
One day around this time last year, an owner in your league called out Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay in Round 11. Everyone brushed it off and got back to drafting their defenses, kickers and washed up veterans. Big mistake.

Far too often, the final rounds of drafts are wasted simply because we don't have a purpose. The idea is not to aimlessly flail for a familiar name, which often turns out to be a dustball. The goal should be to acquire talented players that could be fantasy starters -- or even studs -- if a couple breaks go their way. Merely securing a "get me by," low-upside option is for the weak.

Let's define a flier as a position player taken after starters and quality depth has been established. In a 16-round draft, it's the guys between Rounds 11 and 14. That's four chances to spin the wheel and hope we hit something big, like Williams or Marcedes Lewis from a year ago. Because we are investing so little in these fliers, we can swing for the fences and cut bait at any time if it doesn't work out.

Before we get to the list, let's go over the ground rules. These players must have an average draft position of 110.0 or higher. If you think Mario Manningham or Matthew Stafford or Beanie Wells is a flier, I want an invite to your league.

Players such as Lance Moore, Danny Amendola, Brandon Jacobs and Mike Sims-Walker just missed the cut due to their rising ADPs. I also left off a lot of handcuffs I mentioned in this column last week. Javon Ringer and Rashad Jennings made the list as players with standalone value. But if I own Darren McFadden or Ray Rice, you can be sure I am grabbing their handcuffs just before the flier range.

There are also some guys that have found their way off my flier list. There's a good chance Roy Williams simply isn't that good. Danario Alexander's knees are a mess, Shane Vereen is buried on the depth chart and Jerome Simpson has no quarterback.

So, here are the top-15 guys I'm targeting as my fliers. They are ranked in order of how intensely I fantasize about them on my squad:

1. Jared Cook, TE, Titans - ADP 147.5
Cook continues to fly under the radar because no one seems to know who he is. But Matt Hasselbeck certainly does: "I watched Cook run by this guy, just run by him, and I was like, 'OK Cook can run.' It's nice to know what your tight ends can do. I think the eight ends are really the focal point of any offense." New offensive coordinator Chris Palmer has made similarly raving comments. With uncanny athleticism and two years of experience now under his belt, Cook is a strong bet to have TE1 value before the dust settles. Ace beat writer Jim Wyatt believes Cook will lead the Titans in receptions.

Editor's Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, exclusive columns, ADP reports, mock drafts and much more, check out the 2011 Draft Guide!

2. Robert Meachem, WR, Saints - ADP 134.7
The wildly inconsistent Meachem is finally stringing together health after offseason surgery on his troublesome left ankle. Meanwhile, No. 1 receiver Marques Colston has injury red flags all around him thanks to yet another knee surgery. And with Devery Henderson possibly not making the roster, Meachem stands to at least pick up extra snaps this season. In a best-case scenario, he takes over for Colston and capitalizes on his first-round talent.

3. Johnny Knox, WR, Bears - ADP 119.8
The Bears inexplicably handed Knox's starting split end job to Roy Williams. Somewhat predictably, Williams has crashed and burned. But in the meantime, Knox's stock has slipped way under the radar. He added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and is having a strong camp by all accounts. Once he snags his job back from Williams, Knox will be a steal for savvy owners that have followed the roller coaster.

4. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers - ADP 165.0
The foot woes Sanders is dealing with yields a double-edged sword. The bad news is he hasn't been able to establish himself as the No. 3 receiver. The good news is his ADP has sunk to low-flier levels. Even though Antonio Brown has handled himself well with the opportunity, he isn't on the same talent level as Sanders. And Jerricho Cotchery is in the decline phase of an unspectacular career. If and when Hines Ward cliffdives to unplayable levels, Sanders will be the one the Steelers want on the field.

5. Javon Ringer, RB, Titans - ADP 146.8
At this point, we are all well aware of Chris Johnson's holdout. Not only is he in danger of missing Week 1, but he could also be more susceptible to muscle strains and pulls upon his return. Ringer has averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a pro. There is standalone value here, even for non-CJ2K owners. Rookie Jamie Harper projects as the mere passing-down back.

6. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers - ADP 117.5
For the third straight preseason, Crabtree is not participating. This time, it's due to a left foot injury. Combine that with an apparent lack of chemistry with Alex Smith and we have a well-known, extremely talented guy in the flier zone. It's a chance to take a low-risk gamble on a player that has significant upside if the light switch ever turns on.

7. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders - ADP 125.7
Ford shredded the Chiefs for 148 yards in Week 9 last season and then put 108 yards and a touchdown on the Dolphins in Week 12. Now he has the backing of new head coach Hue Jackson as he is listed as a starting wideout. With world-class speed and a few return touchdowns thrown in, the ceiling here is high.

8. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars - ADP 127.2
The concerns over Maurice Jones-Drew's knee have been well documented throughout the offseason. If MJD does go down, Jennings would immediately become an every-down back staring at 18-25 touches per game. He has the talent to do a lot of damage with that kind of workload.

9. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers - ADP 116.0 AND 10. James Jones, WR, Packers - ADP 150.9
Nelson gets the slight nod over Jones because he is listed directly behind Donald Driver on the official depth chart. Jones is listed behind the younger, better Greg Jennings. Nelson also finished ahead of Jones last season thanks to the latter's brutal drops in big spots. Either way, these two will need an injury to be consistent fantasy plays, especially with Jermichael Finley healthy. That said, Driver's steep decline makes both moderately appealing fliers.

11. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots - ADP 157.9
Ridley's impressive preseason has him on the radar. In two games, the third-round rookie has racked up 148 rushing yards on 30 carries to go with 10 catches and three total touchdowns. He is way ahead of fellow rookie Shane Vereen and it could be argued that Ridley is simply more talented than starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

12. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins - ADP 127.1
Tim Hightower is screaming up draft boards right now as the Redskins' clear starter. But Helu is quietly holding his own, racking up 101 rushing yards on 14 carries and four catches in the second preseason game. Hightower's inability to make people miss and Ryan Torain's frail body should eventually lead to starts for Helu at some point this season.

13. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots - ADP 143.3
A uniquely talented pass-catcher with Tom Brady as his quarterback should never be going this late. While Rob Gronkowski is the obvious red-zone option, the five-round gap between the two tight ends' ADP is stunning. Hernandez averaged 54.5 yards a day through the first eight games of last season and won't be 22 years old until November. Nice upside.

14. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers - ADP 144.0
The Panthers have no legit No. 2 receiver, which is just fine by them. That's because new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski loves to feature the tight end in the passing game and they acquired Olsen after the lockout. While the raw skills of Cam Newton caps Olsen's upside, he still is a strong bet to reach 60 catches.

15. Greg Little, WR, Browns - ADP 148.1
Little isn't officially listed as a starting wideout yet, but that will come sooner rather than later. Brian Robiskie is among the least productive players in the league and Josh Cribbs is not a receiver. Little was drafted to be the physical, run-after-catch receiver that Colt McCoy's weak arm needs in the West Coast offense. His target count figures to grow as the year goes on.

HONORABLE MENTION
* Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders - Making big waves at Raiders camp. If they ever bail on Darrius Heyward-Bey like they should, Moore looks like a player.

* Arrelious Benn, WR, Bucs - Dezmon Briscoe is impressing as Benn continues his recovery from a torn ACL. These two could be battling for reps and targets into the season.

* Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans - He can't beat out Kevin Walter, so he'll need an injury to be relevant.

* Tony Moeaki, TE, Chiefs - Excellent pass-catcher, but the Chiefs' run-first offense quiets major buzz.

* Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams - One of the biggest standouts at Rams camp, Kendricks is being used all over the field in a variety of roles. Exciting prospect.

HacheMan · Aug 27, 2011

Ten super-deep sleepers to watch

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

I am about to give you 10 names of NFL players who have an outside chance of doing something interesting in 2011.
Do not draft these players.
If you're in a standard 10-team fantasy football league, the term "sleeper" applies to guys like Shonn Greene and Robert Meachem, and rightly so. A maximum of 140 position players (i.e., not defenses or kickers) get drafted in 10-team leagues; considering roughly 1,700 guys will make NFL rosters once final cuts are made in a couple of weeks, you're drafting only the true cream of the crop in standard fantasy leagues. Even for folks in 12-team leagues, it's generally unwise to reach for players who are third, fourth or fifth on their NFL team's depth chart.
But this is pro football. It is violent. Depth charts will get massacred by injuries. Veterans will drop off precipitously. New blood will make itself known in sudden and unexpected ways. That's why it pays to be prepared.
That's the motto of this annual column of mine: Be prepared. (I believe that is also the motto of another American institution.) My mission here isn't to give you draftable players. It's to put a bug in your ear, or rather, to tune your hearing so that when the inevitable surprises begin to ransack NFL box scores come September, you'll have a head start on which potential breakout players might actually be for real. These are, in my parlance, "Super-Deep Sleepers."
This is the fourth year I've written this column. The results of such an enterprise are always going to be variable. Many of the guys I've mentioned didn't do diddely-squat, and heck, some of 'em were even cut before the season began. But some have presaged relatively valuable fantasy careers. Here's the roll call of the players I've selected the past three years:

2008: Anthony Alridge, David Clowney, Will Franklin, Roy Hall, Tim Hightower, Jason Hill, Jalen Parmele, Antonio Pittman, Marcus Thomas, Mike Sims-Walker.
2009: Andre Caldwell, Austin Collie, James Davis, Jermichael Finley, Arian Foster, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Marko Mitchell, Bernard Scott, Danny Ware.
2010: Andre Brown, Deon Butler, Kareem Huggins, Chris Ivory, Jeremiah Johnson, Steve Johnson, Legedu Naanee, Isaac Redman, Brian Robiskie, Keiland Williams.
You may be asking yourself, "Who the heck is Marko Mitchell?" But I'm betting you have heard of Arian Foster and Steve Johnson. Anyway, let's hope there's at least one home run among the players on this list, none of whom currently rank among ESPN.com's top 200. Away we go:

Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Buccaneers

Mike Williams is in the top 20 among receivers in our fantasy rankings, and teammate Arrelious Benn was the 39th overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft. But Briscoe has had the best camp of any Tampa Bay wideout. He's a big guy and a great leaper, though these talents (plus his lack of ideal speed) make Briscoe somewhat redundant with Williams. If Benn can get healthy from his torn ACL, he offers deep speed that Briscoe doesn't, and that would probably make for a more balanced Bucs pass attack. But Briscoe, a sixth-round pick last year whom the Bengals tried to sneak onto their practice squad only to see the Bucs pluck him away much in the manner they stole LeGarrette Blount from Tennessee, has a shot to be a Week 1 starter and potential single-covered target while opposing defenses try to stop Williams. Even if he doesn't earn that role, however, we're talking about a super-productive collegiate player (a University of Kansas-record 3,240 receiving yards and 31 TDs) with enviable size and hands. There's certainly potential here.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts

It's usually dangerous to draw conclusions from preseason games, so I'll try to avoid doing so. But so far I've seen evidence of a no-nonsense rookie who brings a bit of a heavier load than Joseph Addai, though I'm not positive Carter offers any more longer-speed explosiveness than Addai does (which isn't much at all). Neither Addai nor Donald Brown has gotten extensive preseason work yet, though that might change in Friday night's game against Green Bay, but I wouldn't be surprised if Carter was already ahead of Brown on the depth chart. He's not a Brown-esque spinner/dancer at the line; rather, he's a 5-foot-9, 225-pound jackhammer, a slightly bigger (yet slower) version of Maurice Jones-Drew. If Addai wasn't also a very good short-yardage back, maybe I'd be even more excited about Carter's prospects. But Addai has missed 13 games the past three years combined. If he gets hurt again, Carter would have a good chance of inheriting a valuable fantasy role.

Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

Decker suffered a Lisfranc (foot) fracture his senior year at the University of Minnesota, or he might've been as high as a first-round pick in the 2010 draft. As it was, Decker lasted until the third round and was essentially "redshirted" his rookie season. Now healthy, the 6-3, 220-pounder appears to be a natural flanker, a possession receiver who doesn't have great deep speed but can really jump and has superb hands. Decker also aced the Wonderlic a couple of years back, generating an image as a heady player and a coach's favorite. Brandon Lloyd comes first in Denver's offense, but Decker looks like a strong bet to play in three-receiver sets, with Eddie Royal running out of the slot. Whether new coach John Fox is willing to throw enough to allow more than one Broncos receiver to be a fantasy factor is an open question, but odds are that Decker will finish third or fourth in targets among Denver pass-catchers. If the team is significantly better than many believe, I can see the kid tickling high single digits in touchdowns.

Jamie Harper, RB, Titans

I'm guessing you don't need another ink-stained wretch weighing in on the Chris Johnson contract fiasco; that's a saga unto its own. And Javon Ringer is clearly in the mix as well, though he has been bothered by a hip injury during the preseason. Harper is clearly third on the Tennessee depth chart, and Ringer is the man fantasy owners will want to handcuff to CJ2K. But it wouldn't be a terrible thing to file Harper's name away, too. Harper and fellow rookie Delone Carter (discussed above) share many of the same attributes: They're big, no-nonsense bangers who, in the right situation, could wind up being TD-makers. Harper is the better pass-catcher, and Titans beat reporters have floated his name as the potential third-down back in Tennessee even with Ringer aboard, though Harper needs to prove he's reliable in pass protection before that happens. While Ringer is a nice, consistent player, he's significantly lighter than Harper and no faster. If Johnson's holdout is for the long haul (which I don't believe it will be), Harper just might lead the team in touchdowns.

Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers

Hunter was headed for this list even before his 53-yard scoring scamper against the Raiders last week. In fact, my regular readers know I hyped Hunter all the way back to the NFL combine, and wrote him up with great affection after April's draft. Skills-wise, I believe he's akin to Ray Rice, though in his rookie season questions linger about ball security -- he had 10 lost fumbles in 771 career touches at Oklahoma State -- and his pass blocking. For some reason, when folks think of Hunter, I believe they confuse him for a "waterbug" type, but this is a 200-pound player at 5-7, not exactly a banger but an instinctive, elusive open-field runner with the burst to take it the distance. Frank Gore is the man in San Fran for as long as he lasts and Hunter is no guarantee to be his handcuff, considering Anthony Dixon is still around. If Gore does get hurt, I'm betting Hunter would lead the team in carries, but Dixon would get lots of work and perhaps be a favorite for touchdowns. Still, this guy was my favorite value pick among rookie running backs in April's draft, and I like his landing spot. I won't be shocked to find him ownable in all leagues by this December.

Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders

I'm not breaking new ground here. Moore was the cause celebre of Raiders camp, vaulting from a relatively unknown fifth-round pick into the conversation to start for Oakland in Week 1. Moore ran a brisk 4.37 40 at the combine, which made him a natural Raiders draft pick, but unlike a few more-heralded draftees over the past few years, Moore has backed up Al Davis' faith by catching everything in sight in camp and looking elusive as well as straight-ahead fast. There's actually quite a bit of deep-sleeper hype surrounding Moore, which is always a bit dangerous; expecting a rookie receiver to crash through an entire depth chart and become a fantasy factor is almost always folly. But with Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens both hurt badly enough that they probably won't be ready to play the season opener, at worst Moore looks like Oakland's No. 3 receiver right away, and unreliable Darrius Heyward-Bey is one of the men ahead of him (the more reliable Jacoby Ford is the other). Moore isn't big like DHB, but he runs good routes already, is terrific when called upon in the return game and has prototypical deep speed. Just know the name.

Jordan Norwood, WR, Browns

Norwood kicked around with the Eagles for parts of a couple of seasons, even earning action in three-receiver sets on occasion after being an undrafted rookie back in 2009. Then he spent most of last year on Cleveland's practice squad, before shining during Pat Shurmur's first training camp this summer. Norwood is just about the exact opposite of the kind of wideout I typically try to identify for fantasy purposes. He's listed at 5-11 and 180 pounds and might be even smaller than that, and he lacks long speed. But the Browns have made him their starting slot receiver. Danny Amendola, Shurmur's slot guy in St. Louis last year, caught 85 passes (albeit for "only" 689 yards and three scores), and there's just as much receiving-corps chaos in Cleveland this season as there was for the Rams in '10. (Those of you who believe Mohamed Massaquoi and/or Brian Robiskie are finally ready to break out, raise your hands.) Rookie Greg Little is getting more hype as a midrange sleeper in Cleveland's offense, but I consider him slightly too "big" a name for this list. (In other words, I think Little is draftable in all leagues, even 10-teamers.) Norwood is the unknown guy here who could surprise, especially in a PPR league.

Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos

Thomas is an inheritor of the redefinition Antonio Gates has given the tight end position. Another former basketball player without tons of football experience, Thomas is part of an ultra-crowded depth chart in Denver, where Daniel Fells, Dante Rosario, Virgil Green and Dan Gronkowski are also around. Fells might be the favorite to start Week 1, but Thomas is more intriguing. When they were drafted this spring, Green was considered the favorite to have an immediate receiving impact while Thomas was more of a project, but those roles have clearly been reversed in training camp. Thomas has been a regular in two-tight-end sets for a couple of weeks, and also got some time in the slot (or, more accurately, in the "wingback" role in Denver's version of single-wing), from which he looked deadly running down the seam. Fells looks like the starter but doesn't feel exciting from a fantasy perspective. If things click for Thomas early, it wouldn't be a shock to see him take over the pass-catching role in John Fox's new Broncos offense.

Johnny White, RB, Bills

In his month-long NFL career, White's biggest headlines have come from a scary scene last week when he banged his head on the turf and had to be carried off the field on a backboard. Fortunately, White escaped relatively unscathed, though he won't see any more action in Buffalo's final two preseason games. A star of Bills camp, White is a converted collegiate cornerback who first became a wideout then finally landed at halfback at North Carolina. He lasted until the fifth round of this April's draft, at least in part because he was (understandably) considered a very raw rushing prospect. But day-to-day observers were consistently impressed by some very instinctive every-down-back skills. Obviously, as long as Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are healthy and on this roster, White has only a distant chance at any sort of playing time. But Jackson is in his age-30 season, and nobody really knows if Spiller's health and toughness are ready to catch up with his insane natural ability. White smells like one of those guys who could come out of nowhere and be a waiver-wire craze come midseason.

Damian Williams, WR, Titans

The best news for Williams would have been the Titans cutting ties with Nate Washington or Justin Gage (or both). But as of this writing, that doesn't appear likely. Williams hasn't had a stellar second training camp -- he was a third-round pick in the 2010 draft -- so the similarities folks have seen between him and another USC receiving product, the Eagles' Steve Smith, haven't been on display. Still, Williams has fine size and can play a physical game when corners press him, plus he regularly displayed good open-field instincts in college. Kenny Britt could begin the regular season on suspension, and if Williams has passed Gage in his new coaches' minds, he could be a Week 1 starter. I don't see true No. 1 wideout potential in Williams, but if his routes stay polished, and if he's as tough on his feet as he has looked in the past, he could be a valuable supplemental playmaker nonetheless.

HacheMan · Aug 27, 2011

Are Giants players overrated?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com

Are New York Giants players overrated in fantasy?

Overrated is probably not the right word for it. The correct description is probably the following phrase: In need of tight roster management.

If you look at the Giants during the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, a stark trend becomes apparent. This is a team that bursts quickly out of the gate but cools as temperatures do, often falling flat on its face in December.

Manning once almost entirely absorbed the blame for this trend. During his first two full seasons as an NFL starter, in 2005-06, Manning averaged almost exactly 20 yards per game fewer in his final eight games of a season (209.0) than during his first eight (228.9). What was a 29-14 touchdown-interception split in the first eight slipped to 19 and 21 in the final eight. Then something happened: He defeated the up-until-then-perfect New England Patriots to win Super Bowl XLII.

That afforded Manning some leeway for his shortcomings, more so within the fan base than the fantasy community. It was leeway he deserved, because in the subsequent three seasons it became obvious that the annual December swoon was not solely a Manning problem; it was a team-wide trend:

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<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER></CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>W-L
record</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Points
scored</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Points
allowed</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Pass yds
for</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush yds
for</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Pass yds
against</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush yds
against</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">First 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>18-6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>27.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>234.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>152.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>169.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>93.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Final 8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>24.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>227.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>121.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>244.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>111.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Typically speaking, this is a team that plays like one of the NFL's best in September and October but is merely average in November and December. They have won 59 games the past six seasons combined for a .615 winning percentage. That's a substantial difference from a mere .500.

What's the reason? It's perhaps no simpler than their schedule. During those three seasons, the Giants faced nine teams that finished their seasons .500 or better in their first eight games and 19 teams that finished at .500-plus in the second half.

That's a problem when projecting the Giants in 2011, because a quick look at their schedule reveals a similarly treacherous second half:

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<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; align: right">Week</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Opponent</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; align: right">Week</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Opponent</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; align: right">Week</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Opponent</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; align: right">Week</TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom">Opponent <CENTER></CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@WAS</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">SEA</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>10</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@SF</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>14</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@DAL</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">STL</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">BUF</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>11</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">PHI</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>15</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">WAS</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@PHI</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">MIA</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@NO</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@NYJ</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@ARI</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">@NE</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>13</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">GB</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=right>17</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">DAL</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Save for the San Francisco 49ers (Week 10) and Washington Redskins (Week 15), each of the Giants' final nine foes is a tough cookie. The natural reaction fantasy owners should have is that on Halloween -- Monday night of Week 8 -- they should skip the trick-or-treating and make sure they've sold high on all their Giants skill players, because after that point, it might be all tricks, zero treats.

There are five desirable skill-position players on the Giants' roster, and here are their average draft positions in ESPN live drafts: Hakeem Nicks (22.5, 22nd), Ahmad Bradshaw (35.5, 33rd), Mario Manningham (68.3, 69th), Manning (82.8, 79th) and Brandon Jacobs (98.9, 94th). With one notable exception, all of them might be overrated.

Let's take a look at how the swoon potentially threatens each:

Hakeem Nicks

(Statistics are broken down by quarter-seasons, games 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16 from the 2008-10 seasons combined.)

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<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=5><CENTER>2008-10</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=2><CENTER>2010</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec
ypc</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Scrimmage
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>58.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>83.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

There's little doubt that Nicks is one of the most talented wide receivers in football, having scored the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (11) and finishing 12th in receptions (79) and 13th in receiving yards (1,052) in 2010 despite missing three games, two due to compartment syndrome in his leg and one due to a broken toe. He's as much of a red-zone threat as anyone in football. His 15 end-zone targets were seventh-most in the NFL, and his nine touchdowns in those situations were second-most, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

For all the positives surrounding Nicks, his injuries were a negative, and the chart shows that his numbers directly suffered because of them. That he battled multiple leg/foot issues bears watching, and in no way can we assume that he's a lock to stay healthy for 16 games, especially accounting for the fact that, with Steve Smith approximately 100 miles away, Nicks will be asked to be the leading man in the receiving game.

Nicks could feast on some softer competition during those early weeks, just as he did when he managed his four best fantasy performances of 2010 during the season's first nine weeks against the Nos. 11 (Carolina Panthers), 32 (Houston Texans), 26 (Dallas Cowboys) and 27 (Seattle Seahawks) pass defenses -- Nos. 30, 2, 1 and 3 in terms of most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. But if you want to build the case that he's going to continue performing at an elite level later in the year simply because the Giants will trail often and resort to the air, you're mistaken. In 2010 he didn't have a single 100-yard game after Week 9 and caught fewer passes in his final five games (28) than his first five (33).

The upshot: Don't overdraft, consider selling high midseason.

Ahmad Bradshaw

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=5><CENTER>2008-10</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=2><CENTER>2010</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush
ypc</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Scrimmage
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>72.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>53.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>64.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>51.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>63.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>3.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>37.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>54.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Like Tiki Barber before him, Bradshaw's most frustrating weakness is a penchant for fumbling. His seven fumbles tied for second in the league among running backs, and his six lost fumbles tied for the lead at any position. Whether that's an issue that can be addressed remains to be seen -- Barber eventually corrected his -- but the decline in Bradshaw's performance late in the year is disconcerting.

Sure, his team trailing more frequently during the season's second half resulted in fewer carries, but Bradshaw's yards per carry noticeably dropped from quarter-season to quarter-season. He's 5-foot-11, 195 pounds and has a "bow-legged and heavy-cutting running style," one which he told ESPNNewYork.com likely was responsible for minor injuries that dogged him throughout the past two seasons.

About those injuries: What you see are the 16 games that Bradshaw played in 2010 and 15 in 2009. What you don't see are the injuries he has played through, including cracked bones in his feet and bone spurs in his ankles, injuries that led to three separate surgeries after the 2009 season. In 2010, ankle problems landed him on the injury report twice, and he eventually succumbed to another surgery on his ankle in February.

Perhaps Bradshaw can grit it out and provide his owners another 16 games, even if he's playing at less than 100 percent. But considering his history of injuries and late-season swoons, it's unwise to pick him as a high-level No. 2 running back.

The upshot: Midseason sell-high.

Mario Manningham

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=5><CENTER>2008-10</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=2><CENTER>2010</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec
ypc</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Scrimmage
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>61.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>31.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>56.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>16.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>46.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>45.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

His numbers are the most skewed toward late-season success of this quintet, but there's a good reason for it. Manningham never truly got a "starter's" chance in New York until Week 10 of 2010, when Smith succumbed to a pectoral injury followed by season-ending knee surgery a few weeks later. When you look at Manningham's upward late-season trend, especially in 2010, consider that his opportunity was substantially larger during those few games.

That said, Manningham's 56 fantasy points during the final four weeks of 2010 were the second-most of the five Giants profiled in any of the past three seasons and should not be understated. They matched Eli Manning's final four games of 2009 and fell one point shy of Manning's 2010, and quarterback is a position typically known for high point totals. In the final three games, Manningham managed at least 100 yards receiving against the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins, who ranked 18th, 29th and ninth in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. In short, he was a standout during a challenging portion of the schedule, as everyone around him was struggling.

Manningham has committed memorable gaffes -- season-killing fumbles in the Week 16 loss to the Panthers in 2009 and Week 15 loss to the Eagles in 2010 -- but that should hardly overshadow what is an impressive set of skills. He's as much the big-play threat as Nicks, ranking sixth in the NFL with 19 catches of 20-plus yards and 11th with four catches of 40-plus. He's speedy, actually besting Nicks in yards after the catch (347-308) and YAC per reception (5.8-3.9). Plus he has good hands, with his 96.8 catch percentage (2 drops, 60 catches) ranking 17th in the NFL, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Manningham might not be any less likely to have the better fantasy season among Giants receivers than Nicks, especially with word that he might be the slot receiver, the position at which Smith thrived two years ago. But there's a key difference between the two: Manningham is being drafted, on average, four rounds and 47 spots later than Nicks. That's a potential steal.

Not to say that it keeps Manningham free of a potential swoon. It's merely that his perceived value is lower than his actual value, and that means that, barring the two shifting into alignment mid-year, you'd be making a smart investment for the long haul.

The upshot: Buy low, keep high.

Eli Manning

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=5><CENTER>2008-10</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=2><CENTER>2010</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Pass
ypa</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Pass
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Pass
TDs</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>INTs</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>256.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>215.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>15</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>19.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>238.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>7.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>227.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>17</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>14.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Manning's second-half issues are detailed above, both in the opening and this chart, but to boil it down to half seasons over the course of his career, he has averaged 222.2 yards per game with 92 touchdowns to 55 interceptions in the first eight games but 208.8 passing yards per game with 64-58 numbers in the final eight. Remember that he has more career starts during the second half, having captured his job in Week 11 of 2004, meaning that he had seven additional games to pad his second-half numbers. That Manning has 28 more first- than second-half touchdowns during his career is nothing short of remarkable.

It is, however, hardly a positive. Manning has wilted facing softer schedules than he will in 2011, and his arsenal of weapons has been whittled down over the years, underscored by the captivating battle for No. 3 wide receiver between Victor Cruz and Domenik Hixon. Manning might make this work initially, but he was unraveled last season by poor performances by his receivers; tipped passes contributed to his league-leading interception total (25).

The upshot: Obvious midseason sell-high.

Brandon Jacobs

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=5><CENTER>2008-10</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" colSpan=2><CENTER>2010</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush
ypc</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rush
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Scrimmage
ypg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Games</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>FPTS/G</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>66.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>71.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1-4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>65.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>70.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5-8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>10.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>12.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>5.0</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>59.9</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>73.6</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>9-12</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>55.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>57.1</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>13-16</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

His physical style puts him at tremendous risk of being a second-half stiff, assuming the Giants don't carefully manage his workload. Fortunately, that's what they did in 2010, dropping his number of touches per game from 16.1 two years ago to 9.6 last season. Jacobs rewarded them with a more productive campaign from a per-carry angle. He set a yards-per-carry career high at 5.6.

The problem is that if his 2010 workload represents the appropriate amount for him -- and it likely does -- then any potential benefit he'd get by an increase in carries due to a Bradshaw injury would be negated by his wearing down over the course of the year. It means that fantasy owners who select Jacobs have to accept more modest contributions; he finished 22nd in points at his position. If they're hoping for more, they'll have to live with the possibility that he's going to wear down late in the year, becoming a clear sell-high candidate.

The upshot: Low upside, sell-high.

That makes four out of five in the "worry" category, meaning those who lean heavily on the Giants during the draft should prepare to be active on the trade market. It doesn't mean they're overrated. It just means you shouldn't be left holding the bag once the calendar page turns to November.

HacheMan · Aug 27, 2011

Most underrated fantasy QBs

Eli Manning's fantasy value is getting incorrectly overlooked

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

Picking running backs and wide receivers for the "blackjack" fantasy draft series (covering those players who are worth taking a gamble on a round early) was a challenging proposition, but the relatively wide variations of perceived player value at those positions assisted in unearthing high-value candidates.

That isn't the quite the case with quarterbacks, because their perceived values do not have anywhere near the variations that those other positions have.

This reduces the field of potential undervalued players, but after a deep metric and matchup review, there are still six quarterbacks who fit the bill of a blackjack candidate.

Eli Manning

There are a myriad of fantasy positives in Manning's game. He was one of only five quarterbacks to throw for either 4,000 yards or 30 touchdown passes last year. His 557 pass attempts (if penalty plays are included) were more than all but six other passers.

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It wasn't just volume, either. Manning had high rankings in overall yards per attempt (YPA) (7.5, ranked ninth), vertical YPA (11.7, ranked sixth) and stretch vertical YPA (13.3, ranked 12th). (Note: vertical passes are those thrown 11 or more yards downfield, while stretch verticals are thrown 20 or more yards). That is the direct result of throwing to two of the NFL's most talented wideouts, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.

That's more than enough to warrant near-elite fantasy quarterback consideration, but there is more. According to the matchup strength charts in the 2011 TFS Draft Guide, Manning has the second-most favorable set of pass-coverage matchups in the NFL. He also should see a significant reduction in interceptions and has started 16 games for six straight years.

Add this up and it certainly equals a top-10 fantasy quarterback, and yet Manning is currently being taken as the 12th quarterback on average in ESPN drafts. Taking him in the fifth or sixth round would be one of the best value picks of the draft.

Jay Cutler

The Cutler negatives are easy to spot, and if one concentrates solely on those, it is easy to see why he is currently the 17th quarterback taken in the average ESPN fantasy draft room.

Before writing him off, however, consider his pluses. Cutler's 7.7 overall YPA total last year ranked sixth in the league. It also turned around what had been a three-year YPA slide (7.5 in 2007, 7.3 in 2008, 6.6 in 2009) and shows that he adapted well in Year 1 of working in Mike Martz's offense.

He could do even better in Year 2 because of improved conditioning and footwork. ESPN "Monday Night Football" analyst Ron Jaworski even went so far recently as to call Cutler's preseason footwork "textbook," which is definitely high praise coming from someone as exacting as Jaws.

Another reason to think there is fantasy upside here is that, as superb as Cutler's YPA total was last year, it was achieved largely through his 7.3 YPA on short passes (those thrown 10 yards or fewer downfield). His 9.9 vertical YPA ranked tied for 23rd and his 10.5 stretch vertical YPA was 28th.

Those route depth YPA numbers are quite important because they indicate that (A) Cutler's downside is limited because of this offense's ability to dink and dunk, and (B) his yardage ceiling is very high. Combine these items with his underrated rushing skills (232 yards last year, sixth-best among quarterbacks) and it equals someone who has top-10 potential at this position.

Donovan McNabb

He is on his third ballclub in three years and is joining a run-first Vikings offense on a team that lost its best wide receiver (Sidney Rice) in free agency. A perfect recipe for a fantasy football dud, right?

Not exactly. McNabb actually posted some superb metrics last season in certain areas, including an 11.8 vertical YPA (fifth-best in the league) and a 16 stretch vertical YPA (fourth-best).

One may wonder if McNabb will be able to replicate those figures with a wide receiving corps that includes Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian, but it should be noted that McNabb posted those totals last year with a wide receiving corps consisting of an aging Santana Moss, 28-year-old rookie Anthony Armstrong and an over-the-hill Joey Galloway. He has that rare ability to coax top-line vertical numbers out of less-than-stellar pass-catchers, and that ability makes him worth much more than the 132nd-pick price he is currently commanding.

Tony Romo/Matt Schaub/Ben Roethlisberger vs. Peyton Manning

The best way to illustrate this is via a fantasy point comparison.

Last year, Roethlisberger played in only 12 games and scored 201 points. Prorate that point total over the course of a 16-game schedule and it equals 268 points.

Now do the same for Romo based on his first five games last year (leaving Game 6 out because he played only a portion of it before being lost for the season with a collarbone injury). Romo tallied 90 points in those contests, which prorates to 288 points in a 16-game season.

For Schaub, take his point total for the last eight games of the year (139) -- it equals 278 points in a 16-game season.

Now contrast those figures to Peyton Manning's 279 fantasy points last year in a season where he threw 699 passes (if penalty plays are included). That is by far the most he has thrown in a single season and is a number he is very unlikely to replicate in 2011 given how his rehab from his neck surgery is reportedly progressing.

Now ask this -- why is Manning being selected an average of 26th in draft rooms while Roethlisberger, Romo and Schaub are being picked 43rd, 45th and 53rd respectively? It is simply a matter of people underestimating their value while concurrently overestimating Manning's.

HacheMan · Aug 27, 2011

Christopher Harris' fantasy football top 200

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

It's go time.

I don't have the data to back this up, but my sense from all your Twitter and Facebook posts is that this coming weekend will see the most live fantasy football drafts of any time all year. After all, the following weekend is Labor Day and blessed regular-season football starts after that, so it's now or never. (In fact, my very own league, the legendary 16-team League of American Recreational Gridiron Enthusiasts -- or L.A.R.G.E. -- will be drafting from Las Vegas this Saturday afternoon.) So in the spirit of fulfilling many requests -- see, we at ESPN.com really do listen to your social media queries sometimes -- here are my rankings for standard-scoring leagues. Unfortunately, there aren't enough hours in the day for me to crank out point-per-reception or any other scoring format rankings, but fortunately in our Draft Kit, our group rankings have you covered in that regard. Just slide your mouse to the right to find the link.

So how did I arrive at these rankings? Art and science, my friends, art and science. Certainly, the fact that I'm the fellow who writes all the player capsules you see when you click on any player on our fantasy football site helps. I did a whole lot of film and statistical research starting way back in March, getting our game ready. I don't tend to rely particularly heavily on looking at NFL schedules before the season begins, nor do I typically let myself be swayed by preseason action. I'm looking at skills first and foremost, closely followed by opportunity. Surely you'll see some overlap between my rankings below and ESPN.com's group rankings, because I'm heavily involved in making the adjustments as news filters in all summer. But the differences, I believe, will be telling.

Remember, you also can find my 10 best value plays (aka 10 flag-planting players) for this season, and 10 super-deep sleepers. In addition, I've added to our Draft Kit my rankings for keeper league drafts, a list that began with the rankings you see below, then accounted for a three-year window for all players. Enjoy! (And to all my co-owners in L.A.R.G.E.: Stop reading this! Make your own draft list! You should be ashamed of yourselves!)

Christopher Harris 2011 Fantasy Football Top 200

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Positional Rank </TH><TH>Bye </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>Adrian Peterson, MIN </TD><TD>RB1 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>Arian Foster, HOU </TD><TD>RB2 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>Jamaal Charles, KC </TD><TD>RB3 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>Ray Rice, BAL </TD><TD>RB4 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>Chris Johnson, TEN </TD><TD>RB5 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers, GB </TD><TD>QB1 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>LeSean McCoy, PHI </TD><TD>RB6 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC </TD><TD>RB7 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>Frank Gore, SF </TD><TD>RB8 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall, PIT </TD><TD>RB9 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11 </TD><TD>Andre Johnson, HOU </TD><TD>WR1 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12 </TD><TD>Calvin Johnson, DET </TD><TD>WR2 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13 </TD><TD>Darren McFadden, OAK </TD><TD>RB10 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14 </TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald, ARI </TD><TD>WR3 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15 </TD><TD>Michael Turner, ATL </TD><TD>RB11 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16 </TD><TD>Greg Jennings, GB </TD><TD>WR4 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17 </TD><TD>Drew Brees, NO </TD><TD>QB2 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18 </TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks, NYG </TD><TD>WR5 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19 </TD><TD>Roddy White, ATL </TD><TD>WR6 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20 </TD><TD>Matt Forte, CHI </TD><TD>RB12 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21 </TD><TD>Tom Brady, NE </TD><TD>QB3 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22 </TD><TD>Mike Wallace, PIT </TD><TD>WR7 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23 </TD><TD>Philip Rivers, SD </TD><TD>QB4 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24 </TD><TD>Vincent Jackson, SD </TD><TD>WR8 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25 </TD><TD>DeSean Jackson, PHI </TD><TD>WR9 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26 </TD><TD>Michael Vick, PHI </TD><TD>QB5 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27 </TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG </TD><TD>RB13 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28 </TD><TD>Steven Jackson, STL </TD><TD>RB14 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29 </TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams, CAR </TD><TD>RB15 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30 </TD><TD>Jahvid Best, DET </TD><TD>RB16 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31 </TD><TD>Dez Bryant, DAL </TD><TD>WR10 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32 </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis, CLE </TD><TD>RB17 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>33 </TD><TD>Miles Austin, DAL </TD><TD>WR11 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>34 </TD><TD>Peyton Manning, IND </TD><TD>QB6 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>35 </TD><TD>Reggie Wayne, IND </TD><TD>WR12 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>36 </TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe, KC </TD><TD>WR13 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>37 </TD><TD>Felix Jones, DAL </TD><TD>RB18 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>38 </TD><TD>Mike Williams, TB </TD><TD>WR14 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>39 </TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount, TB </TD><TD>RB19 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40 </TD><TD>Shonn Greene, NYJ </TD><TD>RB20 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>41 </TD><TD>Tony Romo, DAL </TD><TD>QB7 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>42 </TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno, DEN </TD><TD>RB21 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>43 </TD><TD>Matt Schaub, HOU </TD><TD>QB8 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>44 </TD><TD>Antonio Gates, SD </TD><TD>TE1 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>45 </TD><TD>Santonio Holmes, NYJ </TD><TD>WR15 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>46 </TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart, CAR </TD><TD>RB22 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>47 </TD><TD>Dallas Clark, IND </TD><TD>TE2 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>48 </TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin, PHI </TD><TD>WR16 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>49 </TD><TD>Marques Colston, NO </TD><TD>WR17 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>50 </TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE </TD><TD>RB23 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>51 </TD><TD>Kenny Britt, TEN </TD><TD>WR18 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>52 </TD><TD>Brandon Marshall, MIA </TD><TD>WR19 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>53 </TD><TD>Wes Welker, NE </TD><TD>WR20 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>54 </TD><TD>Austin Collie, IND </TD><TD>WR21 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>55 </TD><TD>Beanie Wells, ARI </TD><TD>RB24 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>56 </TD><TD>Jermichael Finley, GB </TD><TD>TE3 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>57 </TD><TD>Mario Manningham, NYG </TD><TD>WR22 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>58 </TD><TD>Anquan Boldin, BAL </TD><TD>WR23 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>59 </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd, DEN </TD><TD>WR24 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>60 </TD><TD>Ryan Grant, GB </TD><TD>RB25 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>61 </TD><TD>Percy Harvin, MIN </TD><TD>WR25 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>62 </TD><TD>Steve Johnson, BUF </TD><TD>WR26 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>63 </TD><TD>Vernon Davis, SF </TD><TD>TE4 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>64 </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger, PIT </TD><TD>QB9 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>65 </TD><TD>Jason Witten, DAL </TD><TD>TE5 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>66 </TD><TD>Sidney Rice, SEA </TD><TD>WR27 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>67 </TD><TD>Steve Smith, CAR </TD><TD>WR28 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>68 </TD><TD>Cedric Benson, CIN </TD><TD>RB26 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>69 </TD><TD>Owen Daniels, HOU </TD><TD>TE6 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>70 </TD><TD>Josh Freeman, TB </TD><TD>QB10 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>71 </TD><TD>Ryan Mathews, SD </TD><TD>RB27 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>72 </TD><TD>Mark Ingram, NO </TD><TD>RB28 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>73 </TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch, SEA </TD><TD>RB29 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>74 </TD><TD>Santana Moss, WAS </TD><TD>WR29 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>75 </TD><TD>Pierre Garcon, IND </TD><TD>WR30 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>76 </TD><TD>Matt Ryan, ATL </TD><TD>QB11 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>77 </TD><TD>Fred Jackson, BUF </TD><TD>RB30 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>78 </TD><TD>Mike Tolbert, SD </TD><TD>RB31 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>79 </TD><TD>James Starks, GB </TD><TD>RB32 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>80 </TD><TD>Pierre Thomas, NO </TD><TD>RB33 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>81 </TD><TD>Joseph Addai, IND </TD><TD>RB34 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>82 </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller, BUF </TD><TD>RB35 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>83 </TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco, NE </TD><TD>WR31 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>84 </TD><TD>Robert Meachem, NO </TD><TD>WR32 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>85 </TD><TD>Eli Manning, NYG </TD><TD>QB12 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>86 </TD><TD>Daniel Thomas, MIA </TD><TD>RB36 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>87 </TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs, NYG </TD><TD>RB37 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>88 </TD><TD>Michael Bush, OAK </TD><TD>RB38 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>89 </TD><TD>Lance Moore, NO </TD><TD>WR33 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>90 </TD><TD>Tim Hightower, WAS </TD><TD>RB39 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>91 </TD><TD>Mike Thomas, JAC </TD><TD>WR34 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>92 </TD><TD>Joe Flacco, BAL </TD><TD>QB13 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>93 </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis, JAC </TD><TD>TE7 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>94 </TD><TD>Willis McGahee, DEN </TD><TD>RB40 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>95 </TD><TD>Green Bay Packers, GB </TD><TD>DEF1 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>96 </TD><TD>Malcom Floyd, SD </TD><TD>WR35 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>97 </TD><TD>Reggie Bush, MIA </TD><TD>RB41 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>98 </TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT </TD><TD>DEF2 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>99 </TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ </TD><TD>RB42 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>100 </TD><TD>Matthew Stafford, DET </TD><TD>QB14 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>101 </TD><TD>Ryan Torain, WAS </TD><TD>RB43 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>102 </TD><TD>Braylon Edwards, SF </TD><TD>WR36 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>103 </TD><TD>Jordy Nelson, GB </TD><TD>WR37 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>104 </TD><TD>James Jones, GB </TD><TD>WR38 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>105 </TD><TD>Plaxico Burress, NYJ </TD><TD>WR39 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>106 </TD><TD>New York Jets, NYJ </TD><TD>DEF3 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>107 </TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles, PHI </TD><TD>DEF4 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>108 </TD><TD>Johnny Knox, CHI </TD><TD>WR40 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>109 </TD><TD>A.J. Green, CIN </TD><TD>WR41 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>110 </TD><TD>Sam Bradford, STL </TD><TD>QB15 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>111 </TD><TD>Kellen Winslow, TB </TD><TD>TE8 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>112 </TD><TD>Greg Olsen, CAR </TD><TD>TE9 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>113 </TD><TD>Julio Jones, ATL </TD><TD>WR42 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>114 </TD><TD>Jerome Harrison, DET </TD><TD>RB44 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>115 </TD><TD>Thomas Jones, KC </TD><TD>RB45 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>116 </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham, NO </TD><TD>TE10 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>117 </TD><TD>Lee Evans, BAL </TD><TD>WR43 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>118 </TD><TD>Rashad Jennings, JAC </TD><TD>RB46 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>119 </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb, ARI </TD><TD>QB16 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>120 </TD><TD>Jacoby Ford, OAK </TD><TD>WR44 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>121 </TD><TD>Danny Woodhead, NE </TD><TD>RB47 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>122 </TD><TD>Michael Crabtree, SF </TD><TD>WR45 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>123 </TD><TD>Roy Helu, WAS </TD><TD>RB48 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>124 </TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens, BAL </TD><TD>DEF5 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>125 </TD><TD>Jay Cutler, CHI </TD><TD>QB17 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>126 </TD><TD>Darren Sproles, NO </TD><TD>RB49 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>127 </TD><TD>Ben Tate, HOU </TD><TD>RB50 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>128 </TD><TD>Ronnie Brown, PHI </TD><TD>RB51 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>129 </TD><TD>Mike Williams, SEA </TD><TD>WR46 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>130 </TD><TD>Chicago Bears, CHI </TD><TD>DEF6 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>131 </TD><TD>Montario Hardesty, CLE </TD><TD>RB52 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>132 </TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew, DET </TD><TD>TE11 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>133 </TD><TD>Jason Snelling, ATL </TD><TD>RB53 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>134 </TD><TD>Mark Sanchez, NYJ </TD><TD>QB18 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>135 </TD><TD>Zach Miller, SEA </TD><TD>TE12 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>136 </TD><TD>Deion Branch, NE </TD><TD>WR47 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>137 </TD><TD>Hines Ward, PIT </TD><TD>WR48 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>138 </TD><TD>Roy Williams, CHI </TD><TD>WR49 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>139 </TD><TD>Ricky Williams, BAL </TD><TD>RB54 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>140 </TD><TD>Davone Bess, MIA </TD><TD>WR50 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>141 </TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker, STL </TD><TD>WR51 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>142 </TD><TD>Chris Cooley, WAS </TD><TD>TE13 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>143 </TD><TD>New Orleans Saints, NO </TD><TD>DEF7 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>144 </TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons, ATL </TD><TD>DEF8 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>145 </TD><TD>Donald Driver, GB </TD><TD>WR52 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>146 </TD><TD>Danny Amendola, STL </TD><TD>WR53 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>147 </TD><TD>Greg Little, CLE </TD><TD>WR54 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>148 </TD><TD>New England Patriots, NE </TD><TD>DEF9 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>149 </TD><TD>San Diego Chargers, SD </TD><TD>DEF10 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>150 </TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders, PIT </TD><TD>WR55 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>151 </TD><TD>Nate Kaeding, SD </TD><TD>K1 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>152 </TD><TD>Neil Rackers, HOU </TD><TD>K2 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>153 </TD><TD>Josh Brown, STL </TD><TD>K3 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>154 </TD><TD>Rob Bironas, TEN </TD><TD>K4 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>155 </TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski, NE </TD><TD>K5 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>156 </TD><TD>Garrett Hartley, NO </TD><TD>K6 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>157 </TD><TD>Billy Cundiff, BAL </TD><TD>K7 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>158 </TD><TD>Mason Crosby, GB </TD><TD>K8 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>159 </TD><TD>Alex Henery, PHI </TD><TD>K9 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>160 </TD><TD>Nick Folk, NYJ </TD><TD>K10 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>161 </TD><TD>Nate Burleson, DET </TD><TD>WR56 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>162 </TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez, NE </TD><TD>TE14 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>163 </TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski, NE </TD><TD>TE15 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>164 </TD><TD>Derrick Mason, NYJ </TD><TD>WR57 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>165 </TD><TD>Bernard Scott, CIN </TD><TD>RB55 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>166 </TD><TD>DeMarco Murray, DAL </TD><TD>RB56 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>167 </TD><TD>Anthony Dixon, SF </TD><TD>RB57 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>168 </TD><TD>Matt Cassel, KC </TD><TD>QB19 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>169 </TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez, ATL </TD><TD>TE16 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>170 </TD><TD>Jerome Simpson, CIN </TD><TD>WR58 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>171 </TD><TD>Mike Goodson, CAR </TD><TD>RB58 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>172 </TD><TD>Jacoby Jones, HOU </TD><TD>WR59 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>173 </TD><TD>Toby Gerhart, MIN </TD><TD>RB59 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>174 </TD><TD>Marion Barber, CHI </TD><TD>RB60 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>175 </TD><TD>Justin Forsett, SEA </TD><TD>RB61 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>176 </TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs, KC </TD><TD>DEF11 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>177 </TD><TD>Dustin Keller, NYJ </TD><TD>TE17 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>178 </TD><TD>Steve Breaston, KC </TD><TD>WR60 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>179 </TD><TD>Cadillac Williams, STL </TD><TD>RB62 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>180 </TD><TD>Delone Carter, IND </TD><TD>RB63 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>181 </TD><TD>Bernard Berrian, MIN </TD><TD>WR61 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>182 </TD><TD>Andre Roberts, ARI </TD><TD>WR62 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>183 </TD><TD>Tony Moeaki, KC </TD><TD>TE18 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>184 </TD><TD>Derrick Ward, HOU </TD><TD>RB64 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>185 </TD><TD>Javon Ringer, TEN </TD><TD>RB65 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>186 </TD><TD>Stevan Ridley, NE </TD><TD>RB66 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>187 </TD><TD>Kendall Hunter, SF </TD><TD>RB67 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>188 </TD><TD>Isaac Redman, PIT </TD><TD>RB68 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>189 </TD><TD>Detroit Lions, DET </TD><TD>DEF12 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>190 </TD><TD>Jared Cook, TEN </TD><TD>TE19 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>191 </TD><TD>Ben Watson, CLE </TD><TD>TE20 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>192 </TD><TD>Brandon Gibson, STL </TD><TD>WR63 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>193 </TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney, WAS </TD><TD>WR64 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>194 </TD><TD>Earl Bennett, CHI </TD><TD>WR65 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>195 </TD><TD>LaRod Stephens-Howling, ARI </TD><TD>RB69 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>196 </TD><TD>Anthony Armstrong, WAS </TD><TD>WR66 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>197 </TD><TD>Kyle Orton, DEN </TD><TD>QB20 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>198 </TD><TD>Denarius Moore, OAK </TD><TD>WR67 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>199 </TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri, IND </TD><TD>K11 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>200 </TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski, OAK </TD><TD>K12 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Rankings based on 10-team ESPN standard league with 16-player rosters, starting one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one running back/wide receiver, a tight end, a team defense and a kicker.

HacheMan · Aug 27, 2011

Top 20 Recommended Targets
Fantasy leaguers should enter drafts with an aggressive approach. You've tracked offseason player movement, read camp reports, and watched exhibition games (or at least counted on us to do it for you). The heavy lifting is done, and now's the time to pick your league-winning roster. It's cliché by now, but trust your gut and don't worry about drafting a player you've targeted a round or two early if necessary.

These are the players we'll be targeting on draft day. They've been signed off on by Gregg Rosenthal, Chris Wesseling, Adam Levitan, and myself. (Or at least two of us.) You obviously won't be able to draft every one of them. But you've done well if you've got about eight.

Based on Average Draft Position, an impressive preseason showing, and/or training camp developments that spiked their value, these are our top-20 fantasy players to pursue in 2011 drafts.

1. Raiders RB Darren McFadden - Hue Jackson is the biggest McFadden supporter in the building, and as offensive coordinator last year gave DMC 18 or more touches in 10 of 13 games. Now head coach, Jackson will feature McFadden as his workhorse and offensive centerpiece. "This past year he had a tremendous season," Jackson said as camp opened. "I'm expecting him to just build on that." McFadden's 11 games of 114 or more total yards last season bettered Chris Johnson (8), Ray Rice (8), and Adrian Peterson (6). And McFadden missed three weeks.

2. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson - Rejuvenated after a holdout-ruined 2010 season, V-Jax is lighting up the preseason with acrobatic catches. Jackson has lined up in the slot and both outside positions, hauling in five of his seven targets for 117 yards (23.4 average). "Vincent Jackson being here at the start ... it's big," said coach Norv Turner after San Diego's exhibition opener. "He's one of the best big-play receivers in the league." Jackson is worth a second-round pick in standard scoring leagues and is likely headed for the best PPR season of his career.

3. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant - Ex-NFL scout Bryan Broaddus calls Bryant as a "sandlot player" whose lone obstacle is "the mental part." Bryant will be the freelancing complement to technical mavens Miles Austin and Jason Witten, creating physical mismatches in the vertical passing game while often drawing opponents' No. 2 corners and frequent single coverage. Bryant won't contend for the NFL lead in catches -- he has a long way to go in terms of route running and system comprehension -- but Vincent Jackson 2008-2009 yard and TD numbers are within reach.

4. Saints RB Mark Ingram - Ingram won't lead the league in carries, and he may not even reach 250 all-purpose touches in a three-way committee with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. But Ingram will get an awful lot of scoring chances. Through two preseason games, Thomas hasn't played a single snap inside the opposing 20-yard line. Ingram has scored touchdowns from one and 14 yards out while operating as the Saints' primary red-zone back. As the designated rushing touchdown scorer in an offense that moves the chains at will, Ingram has 15-TD upside.

5. Vikings WR Percy Harvin - Brad Childress miscast Harvin as an outside receiver last season, resulting in only one game over 65 receiving yards in the first five weeks. Moved to the slot after the Randy Moss trade (and, later, Sidney Rice's return), Harvin exploded for an 80-yard average from late October on -- 1,285 yards if extrapolated over 16 weeks. Donovan McNabb has compared Harvin to DeSean Jackson, saying "there's no reason (Harvin) can't be a perennial Pro Bowler ... with over 1,000 yards receiving, 90-100 catches." Harvin hasn't had a migraine in eight months and will stay in the slot this season between Bernard Berrian and Michael Jenkins.

6. Falcons QB Matt Ryan - The point guard for what projects as a more up-tempo Atlanta attack, Ryan comes with Wesseling's approval as a dark-horse candidate to lead the league in touchdown passes. "The playcalling is going to be aggressive," described Roddy White of the new-look offense, patterned after Green Bay and New Orleans. OC Mike Mularkey has captained a short passing game to this point in Ryan's career, mostly because his pass catchers were predominantly of a possession variety. NFL-ready rookie Julio Jones and revitalized slot receiver Harry Douglas have broadened Mularkey's horizons. Ryan is a steal in the sixth round of drafts.

7. Cowboys RB Felix Jones - With Tashard Choice and brittle rookie DeMarco Murray nursing bum hamstrings for all of training camp, Jones hasn't just established himself as the lead back in a committee. He's an every-down back. "Ideally, you want to have a bell cow," coach Jason Garrett said this week. "I think (Jones) has proven that he's able to do that, over the last half of last year into the start of this training camp. He's playing awfully well." Jones has been in for every snap Dallas has taken inside the opposing 10-yard line during the preseason. His carry total and touchdowns will spike this season, and Jones only costs a mid to late fourth-round pick.

8. Lions QB Matthew Stafford - The Lions were a top-three team in pass attempts last season, and their philosophy will remain decidedly pass-heavy. Through two exhibition games, the Detroit first-team offense has been in the shotgun and/or no-huddle on 17-of-31 snaps (nearly 55 percent) with nine runs out of a pro-style set and just five traditional pass plays. This is a shotgun-spread offense, and Stafford has extremely high-quality pass catchers at receiver, tight end, and tailback. Health is obviously Stafford's biggest obstacle, but he's due for some good luck.



9. Cardinals RB Beanie Wells - The real Beanie averaged 4.51 yards per carry with seven TDs -- four from ten or more yards out -- as a rookie in '09. The playing-hurt Beanie sank to 3.42 YPC and two scores -- neither from further than two yards -- in last year's sophomore slump after early-September knee surgery. Now handed what may prove one of the NFL's biggest workloads following Ryan Williams' knee injury, Wells is setup to approach and maybe surpass 300 carries if he stays healthy. Even if Wells splits the 2009-2010 difference in terms of per-carry average on 275 rushing attempts, he'll flirt with 1,100 yards. And he has the potential for much, much more.

10. Giants WR Mario Manningham - We've touted Manningham since the winter, and folks are no longer sleeping on him. His ADP is up to the early sixth round, a reasonable target area for a player with 1,200 yards in his future if he stays healthy. Hakeem Nicks will command the double teams while Manningham feasts on man coverage downfield in a vertical-based Giants passing attack. On passing downs, the G-Men are giving Manningham a look in the slot in order to increase his run-after-catch opportunities. Manningham is still being drafted behind Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Lloyd, and Chad Ochocinco, and he's a fair bet to out-produce them all.

11. Texans TE Owen Daniels - Daniels is a testament to the depth available at tight end. Typically still on the board in the late-sixth and seventh rounds, a healthy Daniels will be the No. 2 option in Houston's passing game this year. You probably know he closed out last season strong, but less talked about is the fact that Daniels played 75 percent of the snaps in the final four games and has been even more of a first-team fixture this preseason. For such a blocking-deficient tight end, the Texans find creative ways to keep Daniels on the field as a playmaking pass catcher.

12. Redskins RB Tim Hightower - Washington opened camp with its starting O-Line named, and the unit hasn't missed a day of practice in August. That's enviable continuity, and it's showed up this preseason. Hightower has stared at massive, gaping holes with Mike Shanahan's zone-blocking system hitting on all cylinders. Hightower is effective in all facets of the passing game, so we're talking about a potential every-down back here. Three of the Redskins' first three opponents (STL, ARZ, DAL) also project as mediocre-to-bad run defenses. Expect a fast start.

13. Falcons WR Julio Jones - We knew about Jones' physicality and ability to make plays in traffic from his time at Alabama. What we discovered this preseason is that Jones' timed speed at the Combine is more indicative of his skill set than college tape. Jones played in a deliberate offense for the Crimson Tide, quarterbacked by weak-armed, late-round talent Greg McElroy. In exhibition games, Jones has been the fastest player on the field more often than not. He's going to push for WR2 numbers as a rookie, and suck some life out of Roddy White's counting stats.

14. Rams QB Sam Bradford - The Rams' first-team preseason pass-to-run ratio has been balanced (28:23), but the vanilla looks will turn pass-heavy when real games begin. Bradford has "only" lined up in the shotgun on 19-of-51 snaps (37 percent), and we know from Josh McDaniels' history that St. Louis will have more of a spread than pro-style look. Behind one of the NFL's top young offensive lines, Bradford will air it out early and often. A candidate to lead the league in attempts, Bradford is an ideal QB2. The supporting cast may be unproven, but there isn't enough of a talent shortage to prevent Bradford from posting top-10 QB stats if the volume is there.

15. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski - While Aaron Hernandez remains a situational passing-down tight end, Gronkowski has emerged as a full-time player in his second season, seeing 95.1 percent of New England's first-team offensive snaps this preseason. The playing-time leap actually began late last year with Alge Crumpler banged up. "Gronk" took over as the Pats' lead player at the position with just three snaps of rest in the final three games (including playoffs). He racked up 14 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns in those contests. Having separated from Hernandez with a beastly training camp, Gronkowski is a steal at his current middle-of-the-tenth-round ADP.

16. Saints WR Lance Moore - Moore only played 50.7 percent of the Saints' offensive downs last year. During the 2011 preseason, New Orleans has played 39 first-team snaps, and Moore has been in for 33 (84.6 percent). With Marques Colston sidelined for the Saints' opener, Moore was a perfect 20-for-20. He'll be looking at an every-down receiver role if Colston's knees act up during the season, which is certainly a possibility after the fifth knee surgery of his career. Even if Colston makes it 16 games, Moore is in store for a heavily increased role this year.



17. Jaguars RB Rashad Jennings - Whether or not Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) makes it through a full season, the Jaguars' coaching staff has big plans for its backup tailback. Jennings has earned it. Excellent in pass protection and as a receiver, Jennings is averaging 6.28 yards per touch in his last six games, and for good measure tacked on 4.67 yards per carry against the Patriots' first-team defense in the preseason opener. This isn't a player to be taken lightly. Because of his three-down tools, it's not crazy to think Jennings will make the Jags' backfield a committee this year. He's that good, and the team must find a way to lighten Jones-Drew's load.

18. Texans RB Ben Tate - If you watched Houston's second preseason game, you know already: Tate is a powerful tackle breaker with surprising speed. Last year's 58th pick in the draft, Tate gives the Texans more of a bulldozer off the bench than Derrick Ward, making him a better fit as a change-up back for elusive Arian Foster. Tate has a ways to go to lock down the No. 2 back job, but early momentum is swinging in his favor. The Texans have arguably the best run-blocking line in football. If Tate beats out Ward and Foster gets injured, here's your new RB1.

19. Patriots RB Stevan Ridley - You look for lottery ticket RB5s in the late rounds, and Ridley is as good a bet as any. New England's backfield is awfully muddled, but Ridley has had the best preseason of all the backs and he's a more gifted, versatile version of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Should Green-Ellis get hurt or the Pats turn over the reins to a more skilled option, Ridley will become a borderline every-week starter with double-digit scoring potential. Through two exhibition games, Ridley has 222 total yards, 10 receptions, three touchdowns, and a 4.93 YPC average.

20. Titans TE Jared Cook - Cook's playing time skyrocketed in the second preseason game, leaping from 33 percent of the snaps played in the opener to 61 percent last week. Often lining up in the slot or out wide, Cook also more than held his own as a blocker -- a trait that will lead to increased action. Cook was an immature 22- and 23-year-old in his first two seasons, but he's a man now at 24. Jake Locker already locks onto Cook, and Matt Hasselbeck will soon, too.

Bonus Three-Pack:

** 49ers RB Kendall Hunter - Take this to the bank: Lots of NFL teams will be kicking themselves in a few years -- or possibly a few months -- for passing on Hunter in the draft. A big-play back with dangerous acceleration and a second gear in the open field, Hunter easily beat Raiders CB Walter McFadden (4.39 40) to the house on his 53-yard TD in the second preseason game. Current Frank Gore backup Anthony Dixon is no slouch, but Hunter is likely to receive the majority of the touches should Gore go down. He's good enough to be worth a pick in all leagues.

** Falcons WR Harry Douglas - Facing first-team defenses, Douglas has compiled 134 yards and two TDs on five receptions through two weeks of preseason. We've seen the games, and Douglas is for real. He'll offer sneaky WR3 value in an offense that skews more toward the pass, and potentially flirt with every-week starter status if Julio Jones or Roddy White goes down.

** Eagles QB Vince Young - Don't laugh. Michael Vick was in a similar situation last year, and exploded on the scene as -- by far -- the highest scoring fantasy quarterback in points per game after Kevin Kolb got hurt. V.Y. has been expectedly slow to pick up Philly's West Coast offense, but his talent will ultimately win out over Mike Kafka. We're looking at a top-ten fantasy QB if Vick gets hurt.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Industry Draft Analysis
It's final exam time. With the third week of the preseason nearly in the books, evaluations of talent, role and scheme should be finalized. Now, we draft.

The following is an analysis of a 12-team, non-PPR (point per reception) industry draft. It began on August 22 and is still in progress. The goal here is to see how late-breaking news and trends have affected player values as we near the end of the preseason.

ROUND ONE
1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - Rotowire
1.02 Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Fleaflicker
1.03 Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Bruno Boys
1.04 LeSean McCoy, RB, PHL - Fantasy Knuckleheads
1.05 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - Draft Sharks
1.06 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Rotoworld
1.07 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Fantasy Football Xtreme
1.08 Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - KFFL
1.09 Michael Vick, QB, PHL - The Huddle
1.10 Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Fantasy Sharks
1.11 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Yahoo
1.12 Frank Gore, RB, SF - Fantasy Pros 911

NOTES: The Chris Johnson holdout has owners in a panic. A surefire top-3 pick a couple weeks ago, I wasn't going to let him slip past No. 6. Even if the holdout costs him a game or two and he's sluggish in another, I want him for the end of the year. I'm confident I'll be in the mix at winning time. ... The Ray Rice pick is not as crazy at it seems. He is a three-down back that is getting goal-line work in the preseason and has Vonta Leach as his fullback. ... LeSean McCoy this high in a non-PPR is strange. Rule No. 1: Know your scoring system. ... Maurice Jones-Drew has not played in a preseason game yet, but has not had a setback. He's still a major risk, but someone seems likely to take the bait in the first round now. ... This round was held before Arian Foster's hamstring aggravation. He is now a major risk, but the upside is still too great for me to pass.

Editor's Note: Now you can bring Rotoworld with you to your draft on your iPhone or iPad. The 2011 Draft Guide app is up and running with rankings, player outlooks, depth charts, projections and more!

ROUND TWO
2.01 Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Fantasy Pros 911
2.02 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ - Yahoo
2.03 Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Fantasy Sharks
2.04 Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - The Huddle
2.05 Roddy White, WR, ATL - KFFL
2.06 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB - Fantasy Football Xtreme
2.07 Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - Rotoworld
2.08 Miles Austin, WR, DAL - Draft Sharks
2.09 Greg Jennings, WR, GB - Fantasy Knuckleheads
2.10 Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Bruno Boys
2.11 Drew Brees, QB, NO - Fleaflicker
2.12 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Rotowire

NOTES: With all the questions at running back in the secondary tier, it's not surprising that the second round is turning into a wide receiver run. Vincent Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald are gaining major preseason buzz and are very strong picks -- not reaches -- here. ... We are always preaching not to draft off last year's stats. Taking Greg Jennings and Dwayne Bowe this early is a case of owners doing just that. Jermichael Finley is back and hogging targets in Green Bay while Matt Cassel has looked mediocre in limited preseason action. ... Note that Matt Ryan attempted 42 passes in the first half of the third exhibition game. Good news for Roddy White. Meanwhile, Michael Turner is averaging 3.0 yards-per-carry in the preseason. Giant red flags everywhere for artist formerly known as "The Burner."

ROUND THREE
3.01 Mike Williams, WR, TB
3.02 Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
3.03 Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
3.04 Tom Brady, QB, NE
3.05 Tony Romo, QB, DAL
3.06 Steven Jackson, RB, STL
3.07 Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE
3.08 Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
3.09 Jahvid Best, RB, DET
3.10 Philip Rivers, QB, SD
3.11 Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
3.12 Wes Welker, WR, NE

NOTES: In a non-PPR format, it is hard to justify Mike Williams over Mike Wallace. Or Dwayne Bowe over Mike Wallace, for that matter. ... We see Reggie Wayne drop here, at least partially due to Peyton Manning's injury. It's good value, but with Wayne losing a step and becoming more of a possession receiver, I'm still avoiding him in non-PPR. ... In a standard 12-team league, waiting on a quarterback after the first two come off the board is fine. There is much more of a premium on receivers and backs in the third and fourth rounds. ... Brandon Jackson's turf toe could potentially be big news for Peyton Hillis. He has proven himself as a very good receiver out of the backfield and will now be playing on all third downs. ... We see here how much buzz Dez Bryant is getting. The hype has reached astronomical levels -- and it's warranted.

ROUND FOUR
4.01 DeSean Jackson, WR, PHL
4.02 Felix Jones, RB, DAL
4.03 Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
4.04 LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
4.05 Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
4.06 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
4.07 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
4.08 Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA
4.09 Joseph Addai, RB, IND
4.10 Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
4.11 Reggie Bush, RB, MIA
4.12 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG

NOTES: Felix Jones has been perhaps the most impressive player in the entire league over the last month. Now locked into a three-down role, the fourth round looks like a steal. ... Ryan Mathews' up-and-down camp hasn't scared off everyone. But it's hard to see his talent shining through barring a Mike Tolbert injury. ... The LeGarrette Blount luster has worn off quickly. He had a second-round ADP just a few weeks ago. ... Antonio Gates has proven that he is over his plantar fasciitis by participating in all but one practice over the last two weeks. His ADP should be rising. ... Mark Ingram is another riser thanks to an impressive rookie camp. It's looking like he will split work with Pierre Thomas, but is a lock for the majority of red-zone carries. ... We can see here how hot Reggie Bush has become, even in non-PPR formats. This is really high for a guy that has never proven he can handle a major workload or run between the tackles. ... Ahmad Bradshaw is rightfully sinking as Brandon Jacobs continues to impress.

ROUND FIVE
5.01 Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN
5.02 Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
5.03 Peyton Manning, QB, IND
5.04 Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
5.05 DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
5.06 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
5.07 Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
5.08 Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
5.09 Dallas Clark, TE, IND
5.10 Marques Colston, WR, NO
5.11 Ryan Grant, RB, GB
5.12 Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ

NOTES: The fallout from the Peyton Manning injury strikes. It's possible that even when Peyton gets back, he will have some weakness in his arm to work out. There is still risk, even in Round 5. ... As mentioned earlier, Jermichael Finley looked nothing short of excellent in the third preseason game. He is ready to go. ... Those following the Ryan Grant saga closely probably would have let him sink much further. We found out last week that he has accepted a paycut and has looked sluggish at camp. ... Marques Colston is back practicing but those knee woes remain a red flag to observers. ... I am a little surprised Beanie Wells did not go higher considering this is non-PPR and the draft was after Ryan Williams' season-ending injury.

Editor's Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, exclusive columns, ADP reports, sleepers, busts and much more, check out the 2011 Draft Guide!

ROUND SIX
6.01 Jason Witten, TE, DAL
6.02 Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE
6.03 Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
6.04 Lance Moore, WR, NO
6.05 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
6.06 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
6.07 Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
6.08 Vernon Davis, TE, SF
6.09 Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
6.10 Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHL
6.11 Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
6.12 Jimmy Graham, TE, NO

NOTES: Kenny Britt is not going to be suspended. Tremendous value here for the mega-talent. ... The cat is out of the bag on Lance Moore, apparently. Was stunned to see him go this high, but I get it. ... Matthew Stafford's preseason numbers: 24-of-31. 356 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions. I want him on all my teams. ... Jeremy Maclin is a major risk/reward pick given his mysterious condition. This isn't like recovering from an ankle sprain, where we know a timetable. ... I know Cedric Benson is a bell cow and it's late, but I could never bring myself to draft him. There's just no chance of a bounceback in that offense.

ROUND SEVEN
7.01 Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
7.02 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
7.03 Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA
7.04 Austin Collie, WR, IND
7.05 Tim Hightower, RB, WAS
7.06 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE
7.07 Santana Moss, WR, WAS
7.08 Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
7.09 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
7.10 Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
7.11 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
7.12 Pierre Garcon, WR, IND

NOTES: Aside from Mark Ingram, Julio Jones is clearly the fastest-rising rookie. Showing unique athletic skills throughout the preseason, Jones figures to take a whole bunch of targets away from Roddy White. ... As mentioned earlier, Daniel Thomas' disastrous rookie training camp must be noted. This even feels high for a guy his own team does not appear to trust. ... Tim Hightower has won the starting job and is looking at a three-down role. He's a steal this late in a Mike Shanahan rushing attack. ... Matt Ryan has major upside as the Falcons are showing a commitment to spreading the field more this year. As metioned earlier, he attempted 42 passes in the first half on Saturday night. ... Brandon Jacobs looks like his old self in the preseason. It's possible that he got so overrated he became underrated.

ROUND EIGHT
8.01 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
8.02 Mike Tolbert, RB, SD
8.03 Josh Freeman, QB, TB
8.04 Mike Sims-Walker, WR, STL
8.05 Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
8.06 Sam Bradford, QB, STL
8.07 Mike Thomas, WR, JAC
8.08 Robert Meachem, WR, NO
8.09 Danny Amendola, WR, STL
8.10 Steve Smith, WR, CAR

NOTES: Mike Sims-Walker's usage in the preseason is getting interesting. He lined up in most two-wide sets with the starters in the third exhibition game and is more talented than starter Brandon Gibson. ... Mike Tolbert is looking at most goal-line and third-down work based on preseason action. But he goes four rounds after Ryan Mathews. ... The Jags did nothing to upgrade their receiving corps this month. Mike Thomas is still a value here as their No. 1 wideout. ... We see how much people like us hyping Robert Meachem has affected his ADP. Even though I love him as a flier, he would need a Marques Colston injury to be worth a pick this high. ... Danny Amendola has not been playing very much outside of three-wide sets. Since this isn't a PPR league, it's a reach.

Editor's Note: This is a "slow" draft is still ongoing. Once it's wrapped, an analysis of the final eight rounds will appear in the Draft Guide.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Don't overreact to Arian Foster injury

By Eric Karabell

By Eric Karabell

Although I didn't actually tweet this past week, trying to enjoy a vacation that ended early thanks to angry, bitter Hurricane Irene, I did, of course, check Twitter. (Hopefully, my East Coast brethren are safe.) We get loads of information -- and entertainment -- from social media these days, including the thoughts of injured Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, who created some unwanted attention in the fantasy world with this short Sunday missive:

"4 those sincerely concerned, I'm doing ok & plan 2 B back by opening day. 4 those worried abt your fantasy team, u ppl are sick"
I'm no psychologist, but Foster seems a tad angry to me, maybe even bitter. In truth, it means little to me how he feels about the great game known as fantasy football, which in turn feeds interest in the great game of real football. He's entitled to his now-public thoughts. I just want to know how his balky left hamstring feels. Whether I'm sick or not, well, I guess that depends whom you ask! Look, it's Monday morning. I'm trying to be positive, but there's always time for perspective. The reality is millions of people are without power and/or have flooded basements. Fantasy football doesn't compare. But let's face it, football fans and fantasy owners do want to know what's going on with the athletes, and it certainly doesn't necessarily label them sick, selfish or uncaring about someone's health. Call us inquisitive. Just don't call the Texans offices, please! That doesn't make anyone look good.

At this point, I feel Foster's sore hammy isn't a big issue. In fact, if your draft is quickly approaching and you're holding a top-three pick, I say you go ahead and pretend he's perfectly healthy and there's nothing to worry about. That is not entirely the case, of course, but we should view this realistically. To me, the first-round depth this year isn't exactly strong. In fact, I struggle to find 10 players my gut considers actual top-10 draft-day options, at least in standard leagues. Foster was fantasy's top player last season, its top running back by a monstrous 81 fantasy points. Absolutely he could do it again. Until Foster reinjured his hamstring this week, I had him tabbed as my No. 2 player overall, tucked neatly between Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. Should this injury -- not the last line of Foster's tweet -- drastically change things? I'm just not there yet, though injury news in the next week could adjust that stance, of course.
What if Foster does miss Week 1? Well, those of you ready to exalt Ben Tate to top-30 running back status are likely erring. Texans coach Gary Kubiak has had multiple chances to discuss his running back hierarchy, and enticing Tate is not even second on the depth chart; Derrick Ward is. Yes, the same Ward who once upon a time topped 1,000 rushing yards as a New York Giants reserve, though he has disappointed since. Yes, Tate was the first Texans running back selected in ESPN average live drafts a season ago before suffering a season-ending injury. And yes, Tate ranks fifth in the league in the rather meaningless preseason rushing yards so far -- he has averaged a cool 7.4 yards per tote -- and Ward has done little. Still, I don't think Foster will miss time, so Tate is merely a borderline standard-league pick. My main issue with dropping Foster down in Round 1 or even out of it altogether is the lack of other reliable choices. I'm serious. It's the same with currently absent Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson. He's a risk, too. He and his "lowly" contract might opt to sit Week 1. In fact, I think it's more likely Johnson will sit than Foster. But the season is longer than just September, folks, and these fellows should be among fantasy's best again. I can't bypass them at, say, the fifth or sixth overall pick for lesser -- and still flawed, I might add -- running backs. I can't definitively say the surgically repaired left knee of Jacksonville Jaguars star Maurice Jones-Drew is 100 percent healthy, and we're not likely to know for sure this preseason, either. I can't drop Foster or Johnson below Jones-Drew, and I certainly don't want to go all the way down to Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden or Peyton Hillis territory. Those guys all feel like second-round picks to me.

If drafting today, Peterson and Charles are the first two players off my draft board. Don't sell Charles short. Yes, Thomas Jones is still there and Matt Cassel will find a challenging schedule hardly to his liking, but Charles is a dynamic player. Foster and Johnson are next, coming in at Nos. 3 and 4. Perhaps in the next week or so, the Baltimore Ravens' Ray Rice and Philadelphia Eagles' LeSean McCoy will pass them, but they're not free of risk, either. They certainly could see goal-line opportunities infringed upon by former Miami Dolphins Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, respectively. Bottom line is there's risk everywhere in Round 1, including with a certain Eagles quarterback many choose to throw in there. So, for those who have asked (and even if you haven't), here's my updated (yet constantly changing) first-round rankings: Peterson, Charles, Foster, Chris Johnson, Rice, McCoy, Jones-Drew, Rashard Mendenhall, Gore, Michael Turner. Take Michael Vick in the first round if you prefer, or a wide receiver such as Andre Johnson or Roddy White, but I'm sticking with the running backs, even the ones who aren't 100 percent healthy (or happy, in Johnson's case).

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Projecting Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com

Can Ben Roethlisberger make Mike Wallace the next great fantasy receiver?
You have to hand it to Mike Wallace; he's ambitious.
He even has a prediction for you: "I plan to get 2,000 yards."

Two thousand yards! Such is a single-season total never reached by any receiver in NFL history -- Jerry Rice holds the record with 1,848 yards -- but Wallace's rationale is sound. "I figure that if I average 20 yards a catch this year and catch 100 balls, that will be 2,000 yards," he told the Beaver County Times in mid-August.
Wallace did average 21.0 yards per reception as a sophomore in 2010, second in the NFL (DeSean Jackson averaged 22.5), which followed up the league-leading 19.4 yards per catch he posted as a rookie the year before. On a per-catch basis, Wallace absolutely has the ability to make a run at 2,000 yards.
The problem, of course, is Wallace's assumption that he'll get 100 receptions. He didn't even have that many targets in 2010 (he had 99) and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a seasoned possession receiver in Hines Ward primed to gobble up a healthy slice of the receptions pie. Even deeper on the roster, they have Jerricho Cotchery, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown prepared to contribute. And this is a team that completed just 298 passes last season, 21st out of 32 teams.
But even if Wallace falls short of his projection, as he almost certainly will, there are two compelling reasons to expect him to improve, and perhaps even make a run at his goal.
One of them is the prospect of a full, uninterrupted season working with Ben Roethlisberger. A year later, it's easy to forget this, but Roethlisberger missed the first four games of 2010 while suspended, meaning the two worked together for only 12 of 16 games. One year ago at this time, the buzz surrounding Wallace as a breakout candidate was quelled by the thought that Byron Leftwich would be his quarterback for a quarter of the season.
These are Wallace's per-game numbers from 2010, separating the four games Roethlisberger was suspended from the 12 in which the two both played:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Tgt</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Yds</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Avg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>TD</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>*YAC</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">First 4 G</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>2.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>52.8</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>23.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>0.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle">Final 12 G</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>6.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>4.3</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>87.2</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>20.5</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>0.7</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>28.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>*YAC: yards after catch.

The sample sizes are not equal, which skews the results somewhat, but the hints are there: Roethlisberger looked to Wallace noticeably more often than either Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon, who took over for an injured Leftwich, and he was more apt to consider Wallace than either of those two on shorter routes.
For another statistical perspective, take a look at Wallace's numbers in his past 16 regular-season games played in which Roethlisberger was his quarterback:

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<TABLE style="MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 100%"><THEAD><TR><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Tgt</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Rec</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Yds</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>Avg</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>TD</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>YAC</CENTER></TH><TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER>*Y@C</CENTER></TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>96</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>60</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>1283</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>21.4</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>11</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>388</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle" align=middle>260.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>*Y@C: yards at catch.

In the 31 NFL seasons that have run 16 games, 85 receivers have managed a season of at least 1,200 yards and 10 scores, an average of 2.7 per year. In the past 10 seasons, it has been done 38 times (including by Wallace) or 3.8 times per year. Those are exclusive benchmarks, and Wallace is in his prime at 25 years old. There's little doubt he'll soon become the 14th player in NFL history to have reached those benchmarks multiple times in a career, and if he does it this year, he'll become the third youngest in history to have done it at least twice (Randy Moss, 22 in 1999, and Larry Fitzgerald, 24 in 2007, were younger when they did it for the second time).

The second reason to expect improvement is what stacks up as a favorable schedule, at least on paper, for the 2011 Steelers. Strength of schedule might be an overrated factor in fantasy analysis -- I am in complete agreement with Christopher Harris' assessment on that -- but it's a factor nevertheless, especially when we're talking extreme shifts in the year-to-year strength-of-schedule stats.
Specifically, I'm referring to the annual rotation of interdivision and interconference games. In 2010, the Steelers played the AFC East and NFC South, divisions which included four of the 10 best teams and only two of the worst at preventing wide receivers fantasy points, and six of the top 11 defenses but only one of the bottom 11 defenses in terms of passing yards allowed.
This season the Steelers play the AFC South and the NFC West. To compare, those eight games include four against the 10 worst teams and only two of the best at preventing wide receivers fantasy points, and six of the 11 worst defenses and not a single member of the top 11 in terms of passing yards allowed.
Granted, the problem with such schedule analysis is that it relies on 2010 numbers, and those stats can vary wildly from season to season. Still, that we ranked six of those eight Steelers opponents among our 10 worst fantasy defenses, another 21st and the eighth 16th, somewhat supports the claim.
Last season, Wallace might have had only two cakewalk matchups on his entire schedule. This season, he might have as many as five.
The final, and most compelling rationale for Wallace's improvement is his own skill set, one clearly on the rise to Pro Bowl levels.
Statistically speaking, Wallace was already a worthy candidate in 2010. He led the league in 20-yard receptions (26) and was second only to Jackson in 50-yard receptions (five). Five of his touchdowns were of 43 yards or more. Wallace, who runs a 4.33 40, easily ranks among the speediest players in the game.
But it's his improved route-running skills that made the difference during his sophomore season. Having previously been described as a "one-trick pony" by coach Mike Tomlin, Wallace entered last season motivated to prove his all-around game, ambition underscored by his lofty prediction this preseason. Wallace's yards-at-catch numbers working with Roethlisberger late last year exhibited his improvement and diversification as a receiver -- the decreased "Y@C" number indicates he wasn't just a deep threat, he could catch short passes, too -- and he's only eager to take another step forward in 2011.

And what of the impact on Roethlisberger?
Well, "Big Ben" tends not to be a top fantasy quarterback in terms of reputation, but his numbers the past two seasons make him a candidate. Project his 12-game fantasy production to a full 16 contests and he'd have amassed 268 points, which would have ranked him sixth at the position. In his past 16 regular-season games he has 273 fantasy points. Between 2009-10 combined, despite his having missed five games out of 32, he has 458 fantasy points -- 17.0 per game, or 271 per 16 games -- which ranks him seventh at his position.
That 298 completion number might have you hesitant to declare the Steelers a pass-friendly offense, but remember that Roethlisberger's four missed games suppressed that number somewhat. This is still a team that projects to 500-plus passes per year, and it's one with an in-his-prime Wallace, two wily veterans in Ward and Cotchery, and up-and-comers in Sanders and Brown.
Could this be the year Wallace manages 1,500 yards -- 500 shy of his prediction -- and 12 scores, while Roethlisberger throws for 4,250 yards and 30 scores? The pieces are there for it to happen.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Can you trust Bengals rookies?

By AJ Mass
ESPN.com

What can we expect from the Cincinnati Bengals' rookie passing combo of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green?

When the sun set on the Cincinnati Bengals' 2010 season, it looked like things would remain fairly dark for quite some time. After all, if the team could manage to scrape out only four wins with veterans like Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco in the huddle, then what chance would there be for a new batch of drafted recruits to do any better in 2011?

What can we expect from the Cincinnati Bengals' rookie passing combo of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green?

When the sun set on the Cincinnati Bengals' 2010 season, it looked like things would remain fairly dark for quite some time. After all, if the team could manage to scrape out only four wins with veterans like Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco in the huddle, then what chance would there be for a new batch of drafted recruits to do any better in 2011?

What can we expect from the Cincinnati Bengals' rookie passing combo of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green?

Starting from scratch, the team drafted wide receiver A.J. Green out of Georgia with the No. 4 overall pick, and then used Round 2 to bring TCU quarterback Andy Dalton into the huddle to help get the ball to him. Under the best of circumstances, it would be asking an awful lot of this pair to have standout rookie seasons, but Dalton and Green simply have far too many things working against them.
First of all, they are not simply coming into a stable system with a supporting cast that can help ease the transition from the college game to the pro ranks. Jay Gruden, who is also a rookie of sorts as he makes his debut as an NFL offensive coordinator, plans on running his spin on the "West Coast offense" -- a far more complicated playbook than simply "hand it off to Cedric Benson twice and then throw it to the open guy" would be.
Now add in the lockout, which prevented either newbie from even taking more than a cursory glance at the playbook before being thrown to the wolves of live game action, and we're talking about even more of an uphill climb for this pair to struggle with than any QB-WR combo in recent memory.
Historically speaking, how hard is it for a rookie combo at these key offensive positions to make a splash? Since 1980, only 17 rookie quarterbacks had a debut in which they threw for 2,500 yards. Of that select group, just seven also managed to throw at least 16 touchdowns.

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player </TH><TH>Year </TH><TH>Team </TH><TH>Yds </TH><TH>TD </TH><TH>Int </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Sam Bradford </TD><TD>2010 </TD><TD>STL </TD><TD>3,512 </TD><TD>18 </TD><TD>15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Matt Ryan </TD><TD>2008 </TD><TD>ATL </TD><TD>3,440 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Carson Palmer </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>CIN </TD><TD>2,897 </TD><TD>18 </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>PIT </TD><TD>2,621 </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Peyton Manning </TD><TD>1998 </TD><TD>IND </TD><TD>3,739 </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jim Kelly </TD><TD>1986 </TD><TD>BUF </TD><TD>3,593 </TD><TD>22 </TD><TD>17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dieter Brock </TD><TD>1985 </TD><TD>LA Rams </TD><TD>2,658 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>13 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Certainly, we've got some elite talent in this group, and yes, four of these quarterbacks are of recent vintage. However, let's add some perspective to this discussion. The bar we are setting here is quite low.
Which NFL quarterback threw for just a little bit more than 2,500 yards with 16 touchdowns last season? Shaun Hill of the Detroit Lions. Yes, in the past three decades, only seven rookie quarterbacks have managed to be as good as Shaun Hill.
How about rookie wide receivers? Looking back over the same time, we find that only 37 neophytes were able to reel in 800 receiving yards in their first seasons. If we add in a required minimum of just six touchdowns, we're down to 21 players.

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player </TH><TH>Year </TH><TH>Team </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Yds </TH><TH>TD </TH><TH>0 </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Mike Williams </TD><TD>2010 </TD><TD>TB </TD><TD>65 </TD><TD>964 </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Marques Colston </TD><TD>2006 </TD><TD>NO </TD><TD>70 </TD><TD>1,038 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lee Evans </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>BUF </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>843 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Roy Williams </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>DET </TD><TD>54 </TD><TD>817 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michael Clayton </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>TB </TD><TD>80 </TD><TD>1,193 </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Anquan Boldin </TD><TD>2003 </TD><TD>ARI </TD><TD>101 </TD><TD>1,377 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Chambers </TD><TD>2001 </TD><TD>MIA </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>883 </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kevin Johnson </TD><TD>1999 </TD><TD>CLE </TD><TD>66 </TD><TD>986 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Randy Moss </TD><TD>1998 </TD><TD>MIN </TD><TD>69 </TD><TD>1,313 </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eddie Kennison </TD><TD>1996 </TD><TD>STL </TD><TD>54 </TD><TD>924 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Marvin Harrison </TD><TD>1996 </TD><TD>IND </TD><TD>64 </TD><TD>836 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Keyshawn Johnson </TD><TD>1996 </TD><TD>NYJ </TD><TD>63 </TD><TD>844 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Terry Glenn </TD><TD>1996 </TD><TD>NE </TD><TD>90 </TD><TD>1,132 </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chris Sanders </TD><TD>1995 </TD><TD>HOU </TD><TD>35 </TD><TD>823 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Joey Galloway </TD><TD>1995 </TD><TD>SEA </TD><TD>67 </TD><TD>1,039 </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bill Brooks </TD><TD>1986 </TD><TD>IND </TD><TD>65 </TD><TD>1,131 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eddie Brown </TD><TD>1985 </TD><TD>CIN </TD><TD>53 </TD><TD>942 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Anthony Carter </TD><TD>1985 </TD><TD>MIN </TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>821 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Louis Lipps </TD><TD>1984 </TD><TD>PIT </TD><TD>45 </TD><TD>860 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Willie Gault </TD><TD>1983 </TD><TD>CHI </TD><TD>40 </TD><TD>836 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cris Collinsworth </TD><TD>1981 </TD><TD>CIN </TD><TD>67 </TD><TD>1,009 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Again, this isn't exactly a Mount Everest milestone we've set here. Last season, reaching this tier meant you were in the neighborhood of Pierre Garcon and Deion Branch, basically a borderline third wide receiver in a 10-team PPR-league. And keep in mind that neither of those guys had a rookie gunslinger under center. Garcon had Peyton Manning, and Branch, after languishing with the Seattle Seahawks at the start of the season, got most of his fantasy value once Tom Brady starting heaving the ball his way.
Having a rookie quarterback makes it nearly impossible for a rookie wide receiver to have a huge impact. In the list above, only two had rookies throwing them the ball: Eddie Kennison (Tony Banks) and Kevin Johnson (Tim Couch).
In fact, only four other rookie connections had both the quarterback and wide receiver start even 10 games over the course of that first season for the pair. The results were not all that impressive.

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Year </TH><TH>Team </TH><TH>QB </TH><TH>Yds </TH><TH>TD </TH><TH>INT </TH><TH>WR </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>Yds </TH><TH>TD </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1993 </TD><TD>NE </TD><TD>Drew Bledsoe </TD><TD>2,494 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>Vincent Brisby </TD><TD>45 </TD><TD>626 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>1996 </TD><TD>STL </TD><TD>Tony Banks </TD><TD>2,544 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>Eddie Kennison </TD><TD>54 </TD><TD>924 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>1998 </TD><TD>IND </TD><TD>Peyton Manning </TD><TD>3,739 </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>Jerome Pathon </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>511 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>1999 </TD><TD>CLE </TD><TD>Tim Couch </TD><TD>2,447 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>13 </TD><TD>Kevin Johnson </TD><TD>66 </TD><TD>986 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2002 </TD><TD>HOU </TD><TD>David Carr </TD><TD>2,592 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney </TD><TD>41 </TD><TD>483 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2010 </TD><TD>CAR </TD><TD>Jimmy Clausen </TD><TD>1,558 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>David Gettis </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>508 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>*2011 </TD><TD>CIN </TD><TD>Andy Dalton </TD><TD>1,930 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>A.J. Green </TD><TD>56 </TD><TD>722 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=10>*ESPN.com projections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Given the steep learning curve ahead, the historical unlikelihood of immediate impact, and not to mention a second-half schedule that features the usual four games with defensive stalwarts Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, perhaps the projected stat lines for Green and Dalton are even a little too optimistic.
Still, this team is going to throw the ball, and Green is certainly the best downfield option in a very young huddle, with Jordan Shipley, Andre Caldwell and Jermaine Gresham all 26 years of age or younger. Even lead running back Cedric Benson, for all his years in the league, hasn't yet reached the ripe old age of 30.
This team could well be an excitingly fun "wing it and fling it" offense that has weeks when it lights up the scoreboard. Of course, that style of play also may yield a string of goose eggs just when your fantasy team can least afford them.

I'd pass on the passer here, except in the deepest of leagues (or perhaps if you have the roster room in a dynasty league). As for Green, how can I completely ignore a fellow A.J.? While I certainly would want to make sure I had a pair of trustworthy wide receivers in the fold before considering Green, once the draft moves into the territory of Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards and even former Bengals star Chad Ochocinco himself, it may well be time to give the kid a chance.
After all, sometimes rookies -- especially ones with as much raw talent as A.J. Green -- actually do manage to make history.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Can Tony Romo join class of elite QBs?

By Jim McCormick
Special to ESPN.com

What can we expect from the Dallas Cowboys' passing attack?
In the fantasy football cafeteria, six quarterbacks sit together at an exclusive table. The coveted elites in this clique are Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning.

We can find Tony Romo sitting at the next table over, but he just might deserve to be with the cool kids. He is currently being drafted 11 picks past the end of the "six-pack," going 41st overall and seventh among signal-callers in ESPN live drafts.
Although the six elite quarterbacks seemed fixed as the top tier just a few weeks ago, a significant shift is occurring in drafts. In the top tier of the position, a pronounced gap is forming. Rivers has an ADP of 18.7, with Manning drifting into his own draft space at 30.1, while Romo has an ADP of 41.2. Matthew Berry -- never one to shy away from a bold ranking or belief -- has Romo ranked 24th overall, just one slot behind Rivers, while Manning checks in at 51st overall, just after Mike Tolbert, in his Top 250 player rankings. Berry isn't just including Romo at the table here; he's replacing Manning in the group. Growing concerns over the Colts' cornerstone has his draft status in limbo, which equals deflation. Meanwhile, several elements suggest that Romo might be the better value given his ADP (average draft position).
Romo has been out of the discussion in both real and fantasy football for some time given his absence from the field last season and his team's absence from contention. But now that he's healthy and flush with a dynamic arsenal of receiving talents, just what kind of production can we expect from him and his passing crew in 2011?

Just based on our projections, Romo is estimated to tally 4,329 yards and 26 touchdowns with 13 interceptions to go with 77 yards on the ground and one rushing score. In his past two full seasons of play, Romo has averaged 4,347 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. If we take the projections of his top-five expected targets -- Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Felix Jones and Martellus Bennett -- the sum of their yardage and touchdown totals is 4,133 yards and 24 touchdowns. We seem to have found a reasonable range for projecting Romo's production given what he's accomplished before.
A fractured collarbone prematurely ended Romo's '10 season, one in which he had been on pace for 4,280 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 18 interceptions and an impressive 69.5 completion percentage. Although the sample size was small, he didn't put the ball on the carpet once last season in six games after losing 11 total fumbles in the previous two seasons. If there is a newfound uptick in accuracy with Romo, he's helping to confirm the trend with a 70.3 percent clip so far in the preseason.
With offensive-minded head coach Jason Garrett at the helm, there will be no shortage of vertical work for the talented wideouts with Miles averaging 16.2 yards per catch in his career, while Bryant assuredly has big-play potential. Over the middle there are few better workers than Witten, who is projected to haul in more than 90 catches and 1,000 yards once again. Bennett has yet to live up to his potential but remains a cog in the system. Rookie Dwayne Harris out of Eastern Carolina is showing flashes of big-play potential in the preseason. Jones represents the best receiving back Romo has ever had regularly at his side and could emerge as a PPR maven thanks to an effective screen game.
Although this reads like, and possibly reeks of, a glowing appraisal of this passing game, these are simply the facts. Bryant is a star in the making whom we are projecting to be a borderline No. 1 wideout; Austin is a proven star who has lost some luster (likely due to recent fantasy results); Witten is a perennial Pro Bowler. Jones looks to become the star that fellow Razorback Jerry Jones tabbed him to be, and he showed some life and with solid production when given the requisite work last season. The Dallas passing game is one of the most talented in football as well as one of the most proven in the past several seasons. The baseline for Romo this season is 4,200 yards, and the ceiling is in the career-best range, while a return to the 30-touchdown threshold is quite possible. To remind you of subjectivity here, I am a devout Philadelphia Eagles fan, and even I can't deny that the talent and timing is here for a career year for Romo and a stellar campaign from the offense in whole.

ESPN's Scouts Inc. recently published a list of the top quarterbacks in the league with Romo coming in at 10th overall, detailing that he possesses "above-average arm strength and deceptive athleticism." The article also confirmed the six-pack premise, "Based on our scouting, there are just six elite quarterbacks in the NFL. That's it; just six, and the drop-off after that is clear."
This is where scouting and fantasy scoring disagree: Romo's production puts him right with the top six in fantasy regards. Even better is that you can net him a round later in most drafts. If the scouting report finds a distinct drop-off after the top six in real terms, there isn't such a dip in the fantasy market, with Romo and his ADP peers Matt Schaub (42.5) and Ben Roethlisberger (48.4) providing statistical security beyond the front six. Of these three, I find Romo to be the strongest candidate to produce a monster statistical season.
This is not a referendum on Manning, since his stock is unstable solely because of his health, but rather a confirmation that Romo should be considered as an elite quarterback. And that they need to make room for him at the table.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2011

Tim Hightower leads PPR sleepers

Five players who aren't getting the respect they deserve in PPR leagues

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

The fantasy "blackjack" series (covering those players whom it makes sense to gamble on a round or two earlier than is generally expected) has reviewed undervalued running backs, wide receivers and quarterbacks.

This week, the series shifts from specific positional overviews to a look at undervalued point-per-reception (PPR) league candidates.

The key in ascribing value to PPR draft picks is to strike the right balance between standard fantasy performance metrics (i.e., yards and touchdowns) and the point bonus that comes with the additional receptions (typically one point in most leagues).

This balancing act is not always an easy road to navigate, and it can lead many players to fit into the PPR "blackjack" category.

Here are five candidates who fit that bill best this season.

Tim Hightower

Hightower's overall upside was covered in the blackjack running back article, but he is being included here as well because of a false perception about Redskins coach Mike Shanahan's use of running backs and pass-catching.

The belief is that Shanahan doesn't throw a ton of passes to his lead ball carrier, and there is more than a grain of truth to that. In the 16 full seasons Shanahan has coached, his lead back posted 40 or more receptions only twice (Terrell Davis on both occasions -- 49 in 1995 and 42 in 1997).
<OFFER>That historical cap on running back receptions might lead a fantasy owner to shy away from selecting Hightower, but let's put some perspective on this.

First, Hightower has superb pass-catching skills (he caught 63 passes in 2009), so the odds that he can reach the 40-reception mark should be pretty good.

Then consider this: Last year, only 12 of the 23 running backs who ran the ball 200 or more times posted at least 40 receptions.

Hightower certainly has the ability to post 200 or more carries, so he has a shot at being one of those relatively rare high-volume rushers and pass-catchers. If that happens and he performs anywhere near as well as some of the metrics say he is capable of doing, he easily will be a top-20 PPR running back.

Santana Moss

What does Moss have to do to get more fantasy football respect? Last year he ranked fifth in wide receiver targets, third in receptions (93), 10th in yards and 19th in standard points.

The standard points alone should give him top-20 consideration in any type of league, but the 93 receptions should make him a candidate for a top-10 spot in a PPR environment. Even if one factors that rating downward for the Redskins' change at quarterback, it still wouldn't justify the sixth-round -- or lower -- value being placed on him in many leagues.

Julio Jones

Jones may be a rookie wide receiver, but the odds are quite good that he will be the best pass-catching threat on short passes on the Atlanta Falcons' roster this season. As noted in this Insider article from May, all of the Falcons' four main wide receivers and tight ends averaged less than six yards per attempt (YPA) on short passes last year (short passes defined as those thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). A 6-yard mark is a mediocre showing in that category, and Atlanta's pass-catchers weren't able to manage even that level of performance.

Jones excelled at that route depth level for Alabama last season. His 8.1 YPA in a 10-game breakdown sample that included a slew of tough SEC and out of conference games was impressive enough, but his showing on individual route types (15-for-16 for 160 yards on screen passes being the most notable) provides evidence that he will be able to contribute to the Falcons' offense immediately. That should mean a considerable number of targets and receptions that add up to top-25 or higher PPR wide receiver value for Jones.

Danny Amendola and Davone Bess

One of the most useful types of wideouts to have on a PPR team is the insurance policy pass-catcher. These are the high-volume dink-and-dunk receivers who don't post enough yardage or touchdowns to be considered true starter options but who are invaluable when it comes to filling in during bye weeks or injuries.

These players are also great to have around when a fantasy owner knows that this upcoming week's matchup is so favorable that it can be lost only if some of the team's players post the dreaded goose egg.

In that instance, the owner doesn't need to play for upside but wants a pass-catcher who is almost a certainty to post a quality point total.

Wes Welker would be the prototype for this, but Amendola and Bess fared nearly as well as insurance policies last year.

The evidence for this can be found in the number of double-digit PPR point games each posted.

Welker had nine of these in the 15 games he played in last year. Bess had 12 in 16 games, and Amendola had 10 in 16.

This isn't to say that Bess or Amendola should be drafted ahead of Welker, but consider the price each would draw in a PPR draft. Welker likely would command a fifth-round pick, Bess an eighth-round pick and Amendola a 13th-round pick. Welker is an every-week start candidate who is capable of posting big numbers (he had three games with 21 or more PPR league points last year), but the other two can provide nearly as much insurance value for a fraction of the price.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2011

Sam Bradford ready for next step, but ...

By Brian Gramling
Special to ESPN.com

When will Sam Bradford be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback?
Ask just about anybody who has seen Sam Bradford play, and they can't help but be impressed. He's smart, accurate, poised and is a great physical specimen at 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds. He's coming off an NFL rookie-record 3,512 passing yards, and despite durability concerns when he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2010, he took every snap under center in his first season. He did all this without his top receiver, Donnie Avery, who missed the entire season because of an ACL injury.

This year, Bradford is a solid No. 2 quarterback in standard fantasy leagues. The Rams stockpiled receivers this offseason and hired a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, who piloted the 2007 Patriots to a record-setting offensive season. McDaniels brings a spread offense with a lot of four-receiver sets, which will allow Bradford to throw the ball downfield more. Last year with Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense, the rookie attempted only 35 fewer passes behind the line of scrimmage (113) as he did beyond 10 yards (148). It has been reported that about 60 percent of the playbook is new, so the learning curve won't be as steep for an entirely new volume of plays.

Some pundits are concerned that Bradford could fall victim to the "sophomore slump." I don't know who invented this farcical label, especially as it relates to NFL quarterbacks, but most signal-callers feel much more comfortable in their second season after all the adjustments needed during a rookie campaign. Bradford has admitted that most of the time during his rookie season he never looked beyond his first and second options, and he was still sacked 34 times. If you look at some of the quarterbacks who have gotten significant playing time as a rookie in recent years, most of them improved their passing yards per game and TD/INT ratio in Year 2. (One exception is Matt Ryan, whose sophomore stats were a mere 7 passing yards per game below his rookie campaign.)

Notable QB second-season stat differentials
Josh Freeman: +30 pass YPG, +3.6 TD/INT ratio
Michael Vick: +98 pass YPG, +1.3 TD/INT ratio
Peyton Manning: +24 pass YPG, +0.8 TD/INT ratio
Eli Manning: +119 pass YPG, +0.7 TD/INT ratio
Mark Sanchez: +43 pass YPG, +0.7 TD/INT ratio
Joe Flacco: +40 pass YPG, +0.6 TD/INT ratio
Donovan McNabb: +131 pass YPG, +0.5 TD/INT ratio
Matt Ryan: -7 pass YPG, +0.1 TD/INT ratio
Bradford was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2010, posting strong numbers: 60 percent completion rate, 220 passing yards per game, 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions (1.2 TD/INT ratio). These statistics were even more remarkable when you consider his top three receivers were a trio that the majority of fantasy owners couldn't pick out of a lineup: Danny Amendola (689 receiving yds), Brandon Gibson (620 yards) and Daniel Fells (391 yards).

Bradford has better receivers this year thanks to the free-agent signing of Mike Sims-Walker and return of Donnie Avery, who appears to be back at full strength. Sims-Walker posted a combined 1,431 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 2009 and 2010, while Avery has 100 grabs for 1,263 yards and eight touchdowns in his two NFL seasons. Rookie receivers Austin Pettis and Greg Salas, as well as rookie tight end Lance Kendricks, are also expected to contribute. Kendricks had eight catches and two touchdowns in his first three preseason games. Amendola will continue to run the tough underneath routes, while running back Steven Jackson remains one of the better pass-catching backs in the league.

Bradford also had some interesting splits as a rookie, though some were a tad alarming. For instance, his passer rating dropped in each quarter of play, going from 91.1 in the first quarter to a dreadful 55.7 in the fourth quarter (he had 3 TDs and 10 INTs in fourth quarters). After he threw 30 times in a game, Attempts 31 and beyond were downright ugly; he went 68-for-120 (56.7 percent) for 704 yards, 1 TD and 8 INTs for a 48.7 QB rating. And he certainly didn't play well down the stretch, posting just one touchdown (and six interceptions) over his final five games.

Bradford also didn't light up the weak NFC West opponents as expected, throwing more picks (six) than scores (five) in division play. His 6.0 yards-per-attempt average for the season was the second lowest in the league among qualifying NFL quarterbacks. Only Jimmy Clausen (5.2) was worse.

There were some favorable splits, though. He was better outdoors (8 TDs, 3 INTs, 84.4 passer rating) than indoors (10 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.5 rating), which could be key this year because the Rams could play all eight road games outdoors (if the Cowboys and Cardinals decide to open their retractable roofs). The conservative play-calling also played a role here, as Bradford didn't have to worry about throwing many long passes through the cold air.

The schedule for St. Louis will be much tougher this year, as the Rams go from the easiest schedule in the league in 2010 to the 11th-easiest slate in 2011. That still sounds like a cakewalk, but their horrendous division skews this number. The Rams face many elite NFL teams, including the Packers, Eagles, Steelers, Saints, Cowboys and Ravens.

Bradford has looked decent this preseason in McDaniels' new system, completing 24 of 43 passes (55.8 percent) for 278 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs. That said, his yards per attempt is a mere 6.5 despite having an 83-yard touchdown pass. In his third game against Kansas City, he started 8-of-8 for 76 yards and 2 TDs, but completed just one of his final eight pass attempts.

ESPN.com projects Bradford for 3,899 passing yards, 21 TDs and 14 INTs. The yardage seems about right, but I'd project something more like 25 TDs and 18 INTs. I see St. Louis having to play catch-up in a lot of those matchups with the NFL beasts, allowing Bradford to average close to 40 pass attempts per game, which would be a significant jump from 36.9 last season.

Many of the above reasons will prevent Bradford from producing elite fantasy quarterback numbers this year. He'll be a solid backup, though, especially for owners of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, who all have Week 11 byes while Bradford's Rams host Seattle. Bradford lit up the Seahawks at home for 289 yards and two touchdowns in last year's 20-3 victory.

Next year, look for Bradford to be firmly in the next tier of fantasy quarterbacks with veterans such as Schaub, Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning, and fellow youngsters Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.

Bradford might have the most upside of any of this second tier, considering he's just 23, and most every other skill-position player for the Rams is 30 or younger (although Jackson is an old 28, with more touches than any other running back in football since 2005). Bradford will spend 2011 building a rapport with his young supporting cast, which will be orchestrated by youthful offensive coordinator McDaniels. If all goes as planned, Bradford should be ranked in the 10-12 range among fantasy quarterbacks entering 2012.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2011

Top rookie fantasy sleepers

Rookies don't typically offer a lot of value, but these are names to keep an eye on

By Mel Kiper Jr.
ESPN Insider

According to the overall point totals, Sam Bradford was the top rookie for fantasy football last year. That's not a big surprise -- Bradford started in Week 1 -- but it also provides a harsh reality: He was No. 41 in the rankings. In other words, even when you like a rookie's prospects, he may not be worth much on the fantasy side of things.

That said, nabbing a rookie late in your draft can mean some points later in the year, when the games often matter more. These guys could also be useful to stash away for those in keeper leagues. Since there is only one quarterback -- Andy Dalton -- who figures to start right away, let's jump into the position groups:

Running backs

Daniel Thomas
The acquisition of Reggie Bush does nothing to diminish Thomas' role. He should still pile up carries and will get the bulk of goal-line work for the Dolphins.
<OFFER>Mark Ingram
I think expectations for Ingram need to be tempered a little. He has the makings of a feature back, but the Saints just don't do that, and with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles around, the carries will be spread and the looks varied. Still, not a bad late-round flyer.

Kendall Hunter
Frank Gore's contract is unsettled (and he's coming off an injury). Without Gore, Hunter could get starter carries, as he has been better than Anthony Dixon so far this preseason.

Jordan Todman
If you've seen any of the Chargers in preseason, you may have done a double-take, thinking Sproles was still around. Todman is stashed behind Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert, but could be a big-play threat. Another interesting player to stash away.

Roy Helu
Currently stuck behind Tim Hightower and Ryan Torain, keep an eye on Helu, who's the type of one-cut runner Mike Shanahan likes. And let's not forget that Shanahan has spread out carries before.

Notables: Stevan Ridley could put up some decent totals and be a sleeper in the same way a guy ahead of him on the depth chart, Danny Woodhead, was last year. Jacquizz Rodgers won't be seeing much action early, but he offers a different look than either Michael Turner or Jason Snelling. I can see the Falcons getting him a lot of looks late this year.

Wide receivers

Greg Little
People seeing Little for the first time would be shocked that he fell to the third round. If he had gotten the game reps at North Carolina last year, he would have been a first-round talent. He's probably the most talented wideout on the roster, and the one guy who looks capable of stretching the field for the Browns, but he needs to be more consistent.

A.J. Green
I wouldn't hesitate to put Green high up among wide receivers if Carson Palmer was throwing the passes, but Green's value will be hurt as he waits for Dalton to get a feel for the NFL. Still, not a bad guy to stash away. If Cincy stretches the field, Green is the target.

Julio Jones
Jones is probably No. 1 among rookie wideouts in terms of assumed production. I can see him as a solid No. 2 fantasy option pretty quickly. He'll draw throws because he'll constantly draw good matchups with Roddy White demanding attention from the opposing teams' top corner.

Jeremy Kerley
I can see Kerley becoming the No. 3 man for Mark Sanchez pretty quickly, behind Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. If they use him in the Wildcat in the role Brad Smith held, he's an interesting guy to watch.

Randall Cobb
He has a sore knee, but Cobb could soon become a slot dynamo for the Packers. Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers already know this is a guy who is dangerous with the ball -- they'll find a way to get it to him.

Notables: When healthy, Titus Young is going to have an impact for the Lions, there's no way around it. Dallas may have a steal in sixth-rounder Dwayne Harris. Look for him to get a lot of looks this year. Tandon Doss looks to be a steal for the Ravens. They have a decent situation now with Lee Evans in town, but Doss could be one to watch for down the road.

Tight ends

Kyle Rudolph
If the Vikings use a lot of two-tight end looks this year, Rudolph will be a big part of the equation. Not a fantasy starter, but another sleeper.

Lance Kendricks
Bradford should develop an early rapport with Kendricks, who could be dangerous down the seam and be a red zone target.

Rob Housler
He's a project as a typical tight end, but Housler is as fast as a lot of pretty good receivers and is another difficult matchup for any linebacker who has to track him.

Julius Thomas
The Broncos may have a steal in Thomas, another player in the Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham mold, who played hoops at Portland State.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2011

How risky is Gore entering 2011?

By Stephania Bell
ESPN.com

Is Frank Gore a health risk entering this season?

This just in: The San Francisco 49ers' offense is suspect. With inconsistency at the quarterback position, a struggling offensive line and foot injury to wide receiver Michael Crabtree, this team likely will be challenged in the point-scoring department. Add to the mix new coach Jim Harbaugh, who brings his style and a fresh playbook, and the offseason lockout, and it complicates the challenge of preparing to face a new football season.

Thankfully, there is one constant. The running back who was third in the league last year in average total yards per game, the back responsible for more rushing yards in 2010 than everyone else on his team combined, a quiet, stoic, hardworking fellow and two-time Pro Bowler Frank Gore. Whereas the Niners defense has made vast improvements over the last few years and includes recognizable names such as Patrick Willis, Gore remains the only standout on the offensive unit. Sure, Crabtree made a splash when he was drafted -- and has potential -- but he missed the first five games of 2009 with a foot injury and has missed all of the preseason thus far with another one. Then there's the addition of Braylon Edwards, who has made some impressive grabs this preseason, but how his season plays out is yet to be determined.
At the end of the day, Gore, 28, is old reliable. Gore is the one Niners player who consistently presents an offensive threat. Gore can run and catch the ball, and he poses a danger to defenses by simply being on the field so much that other teams have to constantly account for his whereabouts. Shortly after joining the 49ers, Harbaugh announced his plan to keep Gore as a key member of the offense, perhaps even trying to get the ball into his hands more frequently in passing situations. In other words, Gore could get even more work.
But then there are the injury concerns. Everyone's heard them; most everyone has expressed an opinion on them. Gore has racked up his share of injuries and has had more surgeries than most of us will likely ever endure. Over the course of his collegiate and professional careers, Gore has undergone bilateral ACL reconstructions and bilateral shoulder surgeries. He has endured groin and ankle injuries. Last year, his season ended prematurely as the result of a relatively rare hip fracture that did not require surgery, but did result in him missing the last five games of the season.

Perhaps the perception is not quite the reality in this case. The number of injuries is significant. The missed time? Maybe not. It's true Gore has played in all 16 games just once in his NFL career (in 2006). However, he played in 15 games the subsequent season, meaning he's missed just one game during that 2006-07 stretch. Three of the other four seasons, he played in 14 games. If you subtract 2010 (in which he played in 11 games, his fewest in a single season), he has played in 91 percent of games within a five-year span. That's an A-minus. Far above average.
But if one factors into the injury equation Gore's exposure rate in games alone (the number of plays for which he is on the field in games, not practice plays), his injury rate per exposure is less than, for instance, Reggie Bush, who even without counting 2010 (when he played in only six games, his fewest in a single season) played in just 81 percent of games within a four-year span. In his first four years in the league, Bush had 488 rush attempts; Gore had 939 in his first four. Bush admittedly also served as a punt returner, a punishing role, but the point nonetheless is that Gore had many more opportunities on the field in which he could sustain an injury compared to a number of his peers.
It's hard to imagine once the season begins that the Niners will be running a Gore-less offense. For now we will assume he will remain the every-down back who pounds away for the bulk of the team's yardage on the ground, scoring not overwhelmingly but regularly.

And there is no reason to think the fantasy outlook on Gore changes significantly from what it has been over the last few years. He is consistent and productive but comes with an expectation of some risk involved. The mileage is adding up; when a team relies on a single player so extensively week in and week out, it is bound to take a physical toll. Just how that will manifest itself is hard to quantify, but it would hint at making it increasingly difficult for Gore to stay on the field as the season progresses. That said, he works diligently to maintain excellent physical conditioning. He has also been unique in the world of football in that he has returned from injury in a prior year without a subsequent drop-off in performance.
For now, within the 49ers offense Frank Gore remains the one constant.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2011

QB Stock Watch: Why no love for Orton?

By Eric Karabell

As soon as it became obvious the Denver Broncos were not only keeping veteran quarterback Kyle Orton and then proclaiming him the starter, I expected to see Orton's stock rise in fantasy football circles. I mean, Orton isn't Aaron Rodgers by any means, but last season, when he was the starter, he and Brandon Lloyd were a fantastic team. It wasn't just Lloyd putting up big numbers; Orton produced six 20-point fantasy games in his first 11 games. He was easily a top-10 guy. And then, through no fault of his own, he was watching Tim Tebow play.

Orton will not be watching Tebow play anytime soon, and that's why I remain surprised that Orton remains on the outside looking in for top 20 quarterback status in ESPN average live drafts. For Orton to be going after rookie Cam Newton is just ridiculous. Have you seen Newton in action this preseason? He's making some plays, but when you watch him, you often grimace. And the stats aren't quite there.
Now, I would never recommend anyone try to pry meaning out of August stats, but Orton is looking good. Real good. And we do occasionally see how the preseason numbers affect drafts. But in Orton's case, nothing is happening. That's odd to me. Over the past seven days, five quarterbacks have improved in average draft position (in ESPN standard leagues) more than Orton, and one of them is Jason Campbell of the Oakland Raiders? Really? Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buffalo Bills? A rookie (Newton)?
So while I want to call this blog entry a stock watch for quarterbacks, the fact is that Orton's stock hasn't been changing much. I don't know if people are watching. Perhaps they are scared. Think Brandon Lloyd was a fluke? Um, I don't. He moved up my list the minute Tebow dropped to second- … um, make that third-string. The running game should be productive enough. Orton always seems to be productive. I'm not calling him a starter in 10-team leagues, but he's showing up on my teams as a backup. I have him ranked 15th overall at the position, certainly ahead of all rookies, Raiders and old Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks.
Here are a few quarterbacks whose stock is actually rising in fantasy drafts, and a few more passers whose stock is falling.
Rising

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: The biggest mover upward in the past week, I have little problem with people gravitating to the oft-injured Lion. Stafford has game. And last week he torched the otherwise indifferent New England Patriots -- honestly, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, all of them, they couldn't have cared less -- for 200 yards, two scores and only two incomplete passes out of 14. Stafford looked good, I admit. He's in my top 20, I admit. But when he unfortunately gets hurt, I will also admit I'm not surprised.

Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: His stock hasn't risen much in the past week, but he's already the No. 16 quarterback in drafts, so there's not much room for him to rise. He's just behind Stafford and Sam Bradford. Personally I would take Kolb over both of them, because he is going to reach 4,000 passing yards and probably 26 or 27 touchdowns. Bradford could do this as well, and I feel each is safe and reliable. How can I say that about Kolb when he hasn't played? Well, I like the system he's in, the lack of a running game and the awesome Larry Fitzgerald. You know, it's not such a bad idea to bypass all the top 12 quarterbacks and take some combo of Kolb, Bradford and Stafford, and then play the matchups.
Others moving up: Really, you want to hitch your fantasy wagon to Donovan McNabb? I don't see it. With Fitzpatrick I'll admit he had some moments until midseason last year, but I think the second half is more indicative. And let me repeat: You don't want a rookie quarterback.
Falling

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: I am a bit concerned he could miss a week or two of the season, but that doesn't bother me one bit. Nor does it make me shy away from Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark. Kerry Collins is fine in small doses. If that's what allows me to get Manning in the fourth or fifth round, when he should be going in the top 30, I'm all for it. Manning's numbers might be a bit misleading from last season, but he's going to be busy and productive. His neck injury is making it possible for fantasy owners to get suitable running backs and wide receivers and still get him. I might even get him! I think the fact Manning's stock has dropped the second-most among quarterbacks in the past week is predictable, but also ill-advised.
Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans: This guy is dropping the most of any quarterback, to the point he isn't being drafted in most leagues. On the surface, I'm fine with that. But to judge Hasselbeck on preseason numbers is a bit odd. Yes, I'd rather own Fitzpatrick and McNabb, but I never had Hasselbeck in my top 25 quarterbacks to begin with. He actually opens the season with a favorable matchup at Jacksonville, making me think his stock won't be dropping for long. Others moving down: Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick are falling a bit, but don't read into that. It probably means owners are realizing what I've been preaching, that you can wait on the position. Tom Brady and Josh Freeman are falling as well. Really, other than Tebow, no quarterback should be dropping much these days, because not much else has happened.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2011

Down with ADP: WRs & TEs
With training camps wrapping up and three exhibition games in the books, depth charts are solidifying and clear drafts trends are starting to emerge. Using Fantasy Football Calculator's Average Draft Position tool, I've focused in on players to target and others to avoid in this year's drafts. Below is a breakdown of the wide receivers and tight ends. I deconstructed the quarterbacks and running backs last week.

Editor's Note: Get Rotoworld's updated rankings, projections, and fantasy analysis in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

[SIZE=+3]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]First-Second Round ADP[/SIZE]

Andre Johnson, 1.07
Calvin Johnson, 1.11
Roddy White, 1.12
Larry Fitzgerald, 2.03
Vincent Jackson, 2.06
Hakeem Nicks, 2.07
Greg Jennings, 2.09

Andre Johnson has led the NFL in receiving yards per game in three of four years with Matt Schaub as his quarterback. He's a beast. That much is indisputable. This year's problem with Johnson as a mid-first round pick is that the situations of Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald have improved to the point that Andre is no longer a great value at his ADP. Rotoworld has the three studs in a virtual three-way tie at the end of the first round.

On my own list, I have Fitz as the No. 1 receiver. Pro Football Focus' "normalization" scores from 2010 show Fitzgerald's stat line at 110/1,460/14 with a league-average QB and schedule instead of the unholy law firm of Anderson, Hall & Skelton. It's also worth pointing out that Fitz couldn't take advantage of his 7/105.5/1 average without Anquan Boldin in the lineup (from 2005-2009) for the same reason. He's going to be a target hog this season with Andre Roberts and Early Doucet on the opposite. Last but certainly not least, Fitzgerald has double-digit touchdowns in four of the past six seasons -- that's four more than Andre Johnson.

White is severely overvalued as a first-round pick. His 115 receptions from 2010 are a whopping 27 more than his previous career-high. The Falcons added a superstar-level talent in Julio Jones while a revitalized Harry Douglas has emerged as a weapon out of the slot. More of a volume receiver than the elite three above, White has 20 more targets than any other NFL wideout over the past two years. While his effectiveness will increase, those targets will decrease substantially this season. White isn't a top-five receiver in my rankings.

Megatron and V-Jax are in for monster seasons this year. It's rare that Gregg Rosenthal, Evan Silva, and I are all on board the same player for a true breakout, but the three of us agree Jackson will be a top-five receiver in a contract year. … Nicks is borderline top-five as long as he can stay healthy.

Greg Jennings is being drafted as if nothing has changed in Green Bay since the end of the season. It has. Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver are healthy. Jennings' magical mid-season run came with Finley out of the lineup and Driver rendered useless by a quad injury. Packers coaches game-planned to get the ball in Jennings' hands after a slow start, but there's no escaping the fact that his production spike coincided with Finley's season-ending injury. In the five early-season games with Finley, Jennings averaged 2.8 receptions and 36.6 yards. The rest of the way without Finley, Jennings averaged 5.5 receptions and 92.3 yards.

[SIZE=+1]Third-Fourth Round ADP[/SIZE]

DeSean Jackson, 3.01
Mike Wallace, 3.01
Miles Austin, 3.05
Reggie Wayne, 3.07
Dwayne Bowe, 3.11
Dez Bryant, 4.02
Mike Williams (TB), 4.03
Brandon Marshall, 4.05
Wes Welker, 4.06
Santonio Holmes, 4.12

Wallace led the NFL in receiving yards the second-half of the season while emerging as more than just a deep threat once Ben Roethlisberger returned from an early-season suspension. Rotoworld has Wallace ranked as a top-six receiver. … Austin averaged 6.6 catches and 97.2 yards with Tony Romo under center the first five games of last season. After Romo's shoulder injury, those numbers plummeted to just 3.2 catches for 50.4 yards. He's a logical bounce-back candidate. … Teammate Bryant is the best candidate for a true breakout of any player in football. His ceiling is more than a dozen touchdowns. In my eyes he's a top-10 receiver. … I don't trust the young Bucs offense against a considerably tougher schedule this season. I'd let someone else try to duplicate Williams' double-digit scores from last season.

Stifled by high-end cornerbacks late last season, Wayne has unquestionably reached his decline phase. His career-high 111 receptions were the result of injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie combined with abnormally high pass attempts from Peyton Manning. Wayne may be a relatively safe pick, but his numbers are going to take a major hit this year. … Bowe has legitimately emerged as a top talent, but his 2010 numbers were bolstered by the easiest pass defense schedule in the league. He also has more competition for targets this season with Steve Breaston in town. … Welker owners can't bank on 100+ catches in the Patriots' new spread-the-wealth offense. The Pats tight ends are too dangerous to ignore.

[SIZE=+1]Fifth-Sixth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Chad Ochocinco, 5.01
Brandon Lloyd, 5.01
Marques Colston, 5.04
Steve Johnson, 5.07
Anquan Boldin, 5.07
Mario Manningham, 5.11
Percy Harvin, 5.12
Jeremy Maclin, 6.04
Kenny Britt, 6.09
Julio Jones, 6.11
Austin Collie, 6.11

With a slow transition to New England's offense, Ochocinco has "sucked" thus far in the preseason. We don't expect that to be the case all season, but he's hands-off early in the fifth-round regardless. Tom Brady simply has too weapons, and Ochocinco isn't the threat that Aaron Hernandez is. … As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Lloyd Lloyd arrived at a career year in 2010 through the confluence of outstanding play-design and play-calling from Josh McDaniels. It's easy to forget the Broncos were the best play pass offense in the NFL for a long stretch of last season. That won't be the case under conservative-minded coach John Fox. Lloyd has plenty of talent, but he won't come close to last year's numbers. … Johnson will have to prove he can beat double teams this year in an offense that threatens to be done in by the worst O-Line in the NFL. … Boldin has new life with Lee Evans stretching defenses. … Colston has several red flags: A fifth knee injury (second microfracture), the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore, and a more run-heavy offense.

Manningham has averaged 5.3 receptions, 84.8 yards, and nearly a touchdown per week in nine games missed by Hakeem Nicks and/or Steve Smith the past two years. Over a full 16-game schedule, those numbers project to 85 receptions, 1,356 yards, and 12.5 TDs. That's not how it works in real life, of course, but you get the point. Manningham is still a player to target in the fifth round. … As Evan Silva pointed out last week, Harvin is a threat for 85-90 catches as Donovan McNabb's go-to receiver. He absolutely has Pro Bowl talent. … Britt has been a top-15 receiver from the very start of our projections in May. Now that he's avoided a suspension and practicing fully (hamstring), he's once again a steal in the sixth round.

Three weeks ago, I noted that Julio Jones may be the most explosive size/speed package after the catch in the NFL. That sentiment still stands. The Rookie of the Year favorite is a bigger version of Hakeem Nicks or Miles Austin -- calling to mind T.O.'s RAC ability. Rotoworld has never been crazy about rookie receivers, but Jones has the talent and the offense to merit WR3 status with WR2 upside. … Collie and Maclin are the quintessential boom-or-bust picks. Do you feel lucky, punk?

[SIZE=+1]Seventh-Ninth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Plaxico Burress, 7.02
Sidney Rice, 7.09
Malcom Floyd, 7.12
Santana Moss, 8.01
Pierre Garcon, 8.02
Mike Sims-Walker, 8.03
Steve Smith (CAR), 8.10
A.J. Green, 8.10
Mike Thomas, 9.01
Hines Ward, 9.04
Michael Crabtree, 9.08
Johnny Knox, 9.11
Danny Amendola, 9.12

Plax is an intriguing player, sure. But don't draft him as a WR3 expecting 2007 numbers. Not only is he not the same player four years later, he's also more of an injury risk facing a long history of disappointing production for 34-year-old receivers. … Rice is a Seahawk. That's more than enough to keep him off my roster. … Floyd is being drafted as if V-Jax is still in a contract squabble. That's obviously not the case. He's a WR4 at best this year. … The Redskins' aerial attack will run into plenty of issues this season, but Moss is still a nice target in the early eighth round. … Garcon exploded at the end of last season when Collie and Clark were sidelined. Don't expect a repeat.

Sims-Walker is a perennial fantasy tease. I'd still target him as the receiver most likely to go "boom" in St. Louis, but he may also be the one most likely to go "bust." … Former teammate Thomas is still a bargain in PPR leagues, but his upside is limited by a looming mid-season QB change. … Ward is no more than a WR4 with Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown emerging. … Knox will get his job back from Roy Williams. There's upside here. … Amendola will catch plenty of passes -- and do nothing with them after the catch. … Crabtree is a roster millstone early in the season. Let someone else carry that dead weight.

Steve Smith calls to mind Fitzgerald's 2010 season. For the second time in four years, the Panthers had to drag an out-of-work QB off his couch at mid-season because the situation under center was so dire. It's no coincidence that Smith went through stretches where he was utterly useless to fantasy leaguers for the second time in four years. Smith has proven that he will produce WR1 numbers with any QB who isn't historically awful. Weinke, Testaverde, St. Pierre, Clausen, and the last gasps of Delhomme were among the worst QBs ever to start in the NFL. Is Cam Newton that bad? Possibly. But it's worth a late eighth-round pick to find out.

[SIZE=+1]Tenth-Thirteenth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Braylon Edwards, 10.02
Jacoby Ford, 10.02
Lance Moore, 10.03
Lee Evans, 10.04
Roy Williams, 10.07
Jordy Nelson, 10.10
Donald Driver, 11.02
Nate Burleson, 11.07
Steve Smith (PHI), 11.07
Robert Meachem, 12.01
Greg Little, 12.03
Deion Branch, 12.07
Steve Breason, 12.10
Antonio Brown, 12.11
Emmanuel Sanders, 12.12
Mike Williams (SEA), 12.12
Bernard Berrian, 13.07
James Jones, 13.08
Dexter McCluster, 13.08
Davone Bess, 13.09

The 49ers threaten to be one of the most sunk offenses in the league. … Ford has breakout potential, but may be best left for those in return-yardage leagues. … A perfect fit in Baltimore's offense, Evans is well worth the 10th-round price tag. … Little's early-season value is on the decline following the return of Mohamed Massaquoi. … Don't touch Roy Williams. Seriously. Just don't do it. … Nelson is the Green Bay receiver to own behind Greg Jennings. … Steve Smith (PHI) won't play early in the season. With Maclin back, I'm having a devil of a time trying to figure out where his targets will come from once he does return to the lineup. … Big Mike Williams is a Seahawk; ergo, he will not be on my roster. … Berrian is a washed up deep threat. … Now a RB, McCluster touches the ball less than five times per game. … Bess is strictly PPR material, though a much better receiver than Danny Amendola.

Lance Moore is one of our favorite wide receiver bargains this year. As Silva pointed out, Moore played nearly 85 percent of the first-team snaps in the first two preseason games compared to 51 percent in 2010. His production has always sky-rocketed with Reggie Bush out of the lineup. Considering Colston's injury history, Meachem also has breakout appeal. Of the two, we prefer the more reliable Moore.

Antonio Brown vs. Emmanuel Sanders? Brown was training camp MVP even before his impressive preseason performances. With a knack for making the big play, Brown has taken full advantage of Sanders' absence. Unfortunately, Sanders returned to practice Tuesday. The bet here is that Brown will be more productive as the No. 3 receiver in September only to be overtaken by Sanders in mid-October. Draft accordingly.



[SIZE=+3]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Fourth-Fifth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Antonio Gates, 4.01
Jermichael Finley, 4.08
Dallas Clark, 5.06
Jason Witten, 5.07
Vernon Davis, 5.12

Gates averaged nearly a touchdown more per week than any other tight end as the first-half fantasy MVP last season before foot injuries stopped him cold. He entered training camp still battling plantar fasciitis, though recent signs suggest he's improving steadily. Taking Gates in the early fourth-round is a matter of risk tolerance, but I would never want to discourage a Rotoworld reader from drafting a weekly difference-maker as long as you're comfortable with the risk.

Finley may be the biggest mismatch for opposing defenses in the NFL. There's a bit of a health risk here, too, but he's a good bet for 85 receptions and 1,000 yards if he stays healthy. His ceiling is even higher. … Clark's 100/1,106/10 season in 2009 was an outlier. He's fine to draft as a top-three tight end; just don't expect that production again at age 32 coming off a wrist injury. … Witten owes a great deal of his 2010 success to Tony Romo's injury, increasing his fantasy points by almost five per week with Jon Kitna. There's no way he'll repeat as the top fantasy tight end with Romo and Dez Bryant healthy. … Davis would reasonably be pushing for the No. 2 spot on this list if not for the possibility of Colin Kaepernick taking over at QB coming out of the Week 7 bye. Other than Gates, he remains the best bet for double-digit scores.

[SIZE=+1]Sixth-Seventh Round ADP[/SIZE]

Owen Daniels, 6.11
Jimmy Graham, 7.02
Tony Gonzalez, 7.11

Finally over knee and hamstring injuries by December, Daniels led NFL tight ends in targets while averaging 5.5 receptions and 68 yards over the final four weeks of the 2010 season. … Conservatively listed at 6'6/260, former power forward Graham looks like Cleatus the FOX Football Robot. If Sunday's game was any indication, the Saints will move Graham around like the Packers use Finley to take advantage of mismatches. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson believes Graham could end up leading the Saints in receptions. He's also one of the best red-zone weapons in the game. … Anyone taking Gonzalez in the seventh round hasn't watched a Falcons game since the 2009 season. The future first ballot Hall of Famer can no longer elude defenders after the catch, as evidenced by his disturbingly low 9.4 yards per reception last season. Julio Jones and Harry Douglas will steal targets, leaving Gonzalez will zero upside as a fantasy tight end.

[SIZE=+1]Ninth-Twelfth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Marcedes Lewis, 9.03
Rob Gronkowski, 9.11
Kellen Winslow, 10.10
Zach Miller, 11.06
Brent Celek, 11.11
Brandon Pettigrew, 12.02
Visanthe Shiancoe, 12.03
Greg Olsen, 12.04
Aaron Hernandez, 12.10

Lewis is legitimately one of the best all-around tight ends in the game, but he's not going to repeat last season's touchdowns numbers with Blaine Gabbert threatening to take over for David Garrard by mid-season. … Gronkowski, unguardable in training camp, is the better bet to repeat that touchdown total with Tom Brady under center. … Winslow lost a step last season, but training camp reports suggest he may have regained it after avoiding his annual surgery this year. … Miller is a Seahawk, which makes him an untouchable on my cheat sheet. … Celek may have had a chance of fulfilling Michael Vick's expectations for a bounce-back year before Jeremy Maclin (illness) returned and Steve Smith signed. That's no longer the case. … Shiancoe has been held back by a hamstring injury since camp opened. He may be losing ground to Kyle Rudolph. Regardless, don't draft him.

In 10 games started by Shaun Hill last season, Pettigrew averaged 5.6 receptions and 61.5 yards. In three games started by Matthew Stafford, Pettigrew averaged 2.0 receptions and 10.7 yards. … Olsen is a legit breakout candidate after leaving Mike Martz's death-to-tight-ends offense. He could threaten for the team lead in receptions as Cam Newton's safety blanket.

Don't be mislead by Hernandez's listing as a tight end behind Gronkowski. More accurately, he plays the receiver-tight end hybrid role in New England's offense. The Patriots defense hasn't stopped him in training camp practices, so it's no surprise that he's been constantly open against other teams in preseason action. Between the 20s, he's the most dangerous weapon Tom Brady has at his disposal. Rotoworld ranks Hernandez as a TE1. He's a steal at this ADP.

[SIZE=+1]Thirteenth-Fourteenth Round ADP[/SIZE]

Jared Cook, 13.10
Dustin Keller, 13.11
Chris Cooley, 14.02
Lance Kendricks, 14.04

Cook and Keller are better breakout candidates than the majority of the tight ends in the previous tier. Consider both borderline TE1s. … It's nice to see Cooley's ADP falling. We wouldn't touch him this year after his slow recovery from offseason knee surgery. Fred Davis is lurking in the shadows as an early-season waiver star. … Kendricks has been one of the most impressive rookies even going back to player-organized workouts. Josh McDaniels is using him like old boss Belichick uses Hernandez. It's hard to trust a rookie tight end, but Kendricks has the ability to be an impact player right off the bat.

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2011

Quarterback Tiers of Heaven

Serious fantasy leaguers enter drafts with store-bought magazines, online printouts, and top-200 cheatsheets. Unprepared owners use pre-set rankings on Yahoo or ESPN. At Rotoworld, we are often asked our personal preference for pre-draft approach. Our answer is a system of tiers organized to maximize value with every pick in every round of a draft.

Draft Guide subscribers have access to our complete tiering system at each fantasy position. Every year, we like to provide free site-only readers with a taste of the tiers.

Entering your draft, think of yourself as a talent collector with a big-picture outlook. Magazines are outdated the instant they hit shelves. Cheatsheets don't keep value in proper perspective. Online printouts can be too cumbersome, especially in a fast-moving draft.

Our Tiers of Heaven are the way to go. Here's why:

Your late third-round pick is approaching. Drew Brees is high in your Top 200, and you haven't drafted a quarterback. It looks like a no-brainer.

Looking at your tiers, however, you notice that many other quarterbacks from Brees' tier, such as Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning, are still available.

You already have two starting running backs, but a flex position open. Checking your tiers, you notice that Felix Jones is the only player available from the third tier of backs. You don't necessarily need another one, but there is a huge drop-off after Jones. Taking a rare every-down running back maximizes value, and you should have a realistic shot at one of the remaining second-tier quarterbacks with your next selection.

Felix is the choice.

Don't enter your draft with some sort of positional strategy (e.g. RB-WR, RB-RB). Take the best player available and max out the value. Onto the quarterback tiers.

Tier One: Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers

In a standard league (4 points for passing TDs), these are the two quarterbacks we'd seriously consider in round one. Vick has a cannon arm and is surrounded by playmakers in a pass-first offense. He could probably be one of the NFL's better running backs if he changed positions. The most dangerous offensive player in football, Vick is worth consideration in the top-five picks.

As good as Vick's is, there isn't a better supporting cast in the league than Rodgers'. Green Bay's offensive line is more trustworthy than Philadelphia's, and Jermichael Finley's return puts him over the top. Rodgers will put up similar passing stats to Brady, Brees, Rivers, Manning, and Romo, although it's his running ability that gives Rodgers a big leg up. He's scrambled for 13 touchdowns across the past three seasons, and averaged more than 20 rushing yards per start over the past two.

One nice thing about drafting Vick or Rodgers is that you don't necessarily have to spend a mid-round pick on a QB2 to protect against injury. Vince Young and Matt Flynn would both be plug-and-play QB1s if the starter went down, and they go undrafted in standard leagues. For owners that pick first-round quarterbacks, it isn't at all crazy to use your last-round pick on V.Y. or Flynn.



Tier Two: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo

The rest of the surefire every-week starters. You draft these QBs in the second to fifth rounds and start them regardless of opponent. They're all weekly threats for 300 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Romo is our favorite value of the group. He has two No. 1-caliber wide receivers, the best all-around tight end in the game, and an offense rearing to feature the pass. Romo can often be found available in the early portion of round five.

Brady's Average Draft Position is the late second round. He has perhaps the league's best pass-protecting line to keep him upright, and an intriguing mix of youthful and veteran pass catchers to throw to. Brady gets a bump in leagues that penalize more heavily for turnovers. His touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past three seasons is 114:25. Reduced, that's 4.56-to-1.

Rivers is typically a third-round fantasy pick. His chemistry with Vincent Jackson this preseason has been extraordinary. Malcom Floyd returns, and Antonio Gates is looking healthy.

Brees is going in the middle of round three. His pass attempts will drop with a better defense and running game, but he'll be more efficient. We'd probably still hope he dropped to round four before drafting him.

Manning's neck injury has pushed his ADP all the way to the end of round four. Our money is on Manning starting the season opener. If he does, that value is ripe for the picking.

Tier Three: Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford

These quarterbacks all have upside to jump into the top two tiers, particularly Ryan and Stafford. If the third preseason game was any indication (42 first-half pass attempts), the Falcons will run a no-huddle, shotgun attack with an extremely aggressive mentality. Michael Turner is slowing down and Atlanta's best talent is now in the pass game, so the new approach makes too much sense.

Fantasy leaguers are wary of Stafford's durability, but there's nothing to suggest he's injury prone. He's been a victim of bad luck. The Lions will be forced to rely heavily on Stafford's arm after losing power back Mikel Leshoure, and they were already a top-three team in pass attempts. We'll go ahead and guarantee 30 passing scores and 4,000 yards if Stafford stays healthy. Last year, Lions quarterbacks (also Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton) combined for 3,810 yards and 26 TDs. Stafford only played three games.

Roethlisberger is a wildcard. He was the No. 4 fantasy QB in 2007, No. 18 in 2008, No. 9 in 2009, and No. 7 in points per game last season after returning from suspension. But he's still frequently overlooked in fantasy circles. The 2010 emergence of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown's 2011 preseason stardom give Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians plenty of reason to air it out. Yet Roethlisberger is often available as a seventh- to eighth-round QB2.

We have a lot of faith in all three of the above, though Stafford and Roethlisberger may require quality QB2 protection due to injury and/or offensive line concerns.



Tier Four: Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford

These are the borderline, low-end QB1s. Schaub's fantasy ranking is likely to drop for a second straight season as Houston evolves into a running offense coordinated by former line coach Rick Dennison. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are a dynamic duo, and the Texans won't play from behind as much with improvement on defense. Don't draft Schaub thinking he's a top-ten quarterback.

To this point in his career, Flacco's big arm has gone to waste surrounded by possession receivers in a run-heavy offense. Baltimore has ranked 30th, 25th, and 24th in pass attempts during Flacco's three years as a starter. There is reason to believe Flacco could turn the corner with Lee Evans lighting up the preseason, but it's a "prove-it" year for Flacco in fantasy terms.

Freeman will hit tough sledding with a far more difficult schedule than he faced last season. Until the Bucs remove the training wheels and open up the offense, Freeman will be a better real-life NFL than fantasy quarterback. He's the most commonly overdrafted QB.

Manning hasn't finished better than No. 9 among fantasy quarterbacks in six years, and struggled throughout camp and preseason. The Giants' offense would operate much more smoothly getting back to its run-heavy approach of 2007 and 2008. Like Freeman, Eli is often overdrafted.

Bradford may have the highest ceiling in this group. He'll be top five in pass attempts assuming good health, and the Josh McDaniels factor could help push Bradford into the top-ten QBs. We see the St. Louis supporting cast as limiting, but we could be wrong. He's our favorite QB2.

One of our favorite quarterback pairings is Stafford as a fantasy starter backed up by Bradford, drafting them consecutively in the middle rounds after loading up early on receivers and backs.

Tier Five: Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez

Mid-range to low-end QB2s. Sanchez and Cassel play in run-heavy offenses and lack QB1-caliber talent. Cutler has all the skill in the world, but a horrible situation from a fantasy perspective. Kolb has one proven playmaker in his pass-catching corps, and an offensive line that threatens to tank.

Tier Six: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Donovan McNabb, Cam Newton, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, John Beck, Alex Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Andy Dalton

Bottom-barrel QB2s and Week 1 starters. Fitzpatrick, McNabb, and Orton are draft-able, but still undesirable. McNabb does have more security than anticipated with Christian Ponder struggling in August. The change from Josh McDaniels' pass-happy offense to John Fox's prehistoric approach is a death knell for Orton. Keep a close eye on Newton, McCoy, and Beck from this group.

Tier Seven: Tim Tebow, Vince Young, Charlie Whitehurst, Rex Grossman, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Bruce Gradkowski, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Matt Flynn, Tyler Thigpen, Seneca Wallace, Jon Kitna, Jake Locker, Matt Leinart, Caleb Hanie, Jimmy Clausen, Chase Daniel, Sage Rosenfels, Tyrod Taylor, Kerry Collins, Brian Hoyer

All of these players are expected to be backups in Week 1, though Tebow, Young, Daniel, Flynn, and Hoyer would all be intriguing if they fell into playing time. Leinart, Kitna, and Rosenfels could be buoyed by enough surrounding talent to qualify as QB2s in the event of a starter's injury.

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2011

Can Reggie Bush break through?

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Is this finally Reggie Bush's time to shine?

I was checking out ESPN.com's live draft results, specifically the page where you can see which players have taken the biggest fall in the past seven days. And I was met with a shock. As of Aug. 30, just behind Ryan Grant, Jonathan Stewart and Ryan Torain, is one Mr. Reggie Bush: Heisman winner and Heisman giver-backer, 2006 No. 2 overall pick, and relatively disappointing professional running back. On average, he has seen his average draft position drop 5.4 slots.

That's an intriguing development in a week when Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano named Bush his starting running back. Now, I'm not so callow as to say just because a guy is the "starter," that means he's not in a platoon. Rookie Daniel Thomas is on hand, and he's going to play some. Nor does Sparano's endorsement ("I would think he's going to have the most touches and the most carries," courtesy of The Miami Herald) automatically mean he's the most valuable running back on Miami's roster. But it certainly doesn't mean his fantasy value drops, does it?

It's easy to bash Bush. He might have done some pretty questionable things in college, at a university that was dominant in football at the time of his attendance. He's a rich, handsome, well-spoken guy who carries a public perception that things have come easy. And he never lived up to the hype in New Orleans; after two productive committee seasons with the Saints in 2006 and '07, he was hurt for a good portion of the subsequent three years and didn't look particularly comfortable with contact, often choosing to evade tacklers rather than taking them head on. But let's be honest, much of the problem we fantasy folks have with Reggie Bush is that his name is Reggie Bush. If he were a veteran fifth-round pick who had averaged 59 catches and 846 yards from scrimmage per season in his NFL career and was going to a run-first offense where his only competition was a rookie, we'd be touting him as a sleeper. Instead, his ADP is going down.

Listen, I've led the charge on Bush critiques. He hasn't represented himself on the field as an elusive guy or a tough guy. Whereas theoretically he was supposed to be a breakaway runner of the Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles mold, only three of his 524 career carries have gone for 40 or more yards; CJ2K had four such runs last year, and Charles had three. Charles averages 6.0 yards per carry for his career and Johnson averages 5.0; Bush averages 4.0. And, of course, there are the injuries. Bush has played in 60 of a possible 80 games, including just 32 of his last possible 48.

Does Bush deserve his "soft" label? Let's look at those injuries. He broke his right leg last year, something for which we shouldn't hold him accountable. It's a broken bone. His left knee has been a constant source of problems; it has suffered meniscus damage and sprained ligaments and has required surgery. Again, I would argue that's not a "toughness" issue but rather bad luck. However, Bush has faced a few calf pulls and hamstring strains -- possibly related to his left knee troubles -- that fall in a grayer area. Let me put it this way: I do consider Bush's left knee perpetually at risk because of his persistent injuries, and that diminishes his fantasy value. But I can't say, "He'll definitely get hurt."

The larger question is: Is Bush simply much less talented than we all believed when he was lighting up the USC backfield? I don't think he is. The guy I saw run in the second preseason game, against the Carolina Panthers, looked elusive and dynamic, bursting up through lanes between the tackles. He was impressive. Of course, the very next week, Bush had five carries for minus-1 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so it's not likely he'll be a superstar. Still, I don't think this is a matter of a man severely lacking talent.

And then there's the matter of Thomas, the rookie I thought looked best-positioned to have fantasy impact as a rookie. By most accounts, he's been a preseason disappointment. The most damning evaluation came from The Palm Beach Post, which reported that Thomas looked as if he was regularly tiptoeing at the line of scrimmage. Anyone whose mind instantly flashes to Ron Dayne is forgiven. If Thomas had come into Dolphins camp and grabbed the starting gig by the neck, would the team have felt compelled to give Larry Johnson a look-see? And would the Fins be talking up Bush to this degree? Heck, glorified fullback Lex Hilliard could conceivably be a better bet for Week 1 goal-line carries than Thomas at this point.

Of course, you're not playing fantasy in Week 1 only. Bush's legs have been injured enough that it's legit to be concerned that he won't hold up to 15 or 20 touches per week. And Thomas can't be completely flushed away; countless good NFL backs have made less-than-favorable first impressions, then figured things out later. Heck, I still think I'd draft Thomas before I'd take Bush, just for the bruising, 230-pound upside and the chance he'll get himself straightened out. But if you don't have to take Bush to be a starter on your fantasy team (and you don't), he's worth a draft choice, too. It sure sounds for all the world as though Bush is going to get a chance to be the lead dog. He's going to line up all over the place, and Chad Henne should look for him an awful lot in the passing game. For a game or a month or half a season, there's a chance the guy will become a fantasy story. The left knee -- and the soft-tissue leg injuries -- concern me enough that if Bush does start strong, I would consider dealing him away. But as an 11th-rounder in 10-team drafts? That's absolutely a risk worth taking.

HacheMan · Aug 31, 2011

Bush to start, but what of Thomas?

The news out of Miami Dolphins camp that coach Tony Sparano intends to use Reggie Bush more than anyone has seen him used in the past few seasons is wishful thinking, of course, because it's unlikely Bush's body can hold up. But the bigger story here, considering I'm not the biggest fan of the former Heisman Trophy winner from a fantasy standpoint, is yet another highly touted rookie -- what position he plays is almost irrelevant -- appears to have been overrated.

Yes, Daniel Thomas was a second-round pick a few months ago, and fantasy owners saw him as a real draft-day winner in terms of landing on a team without other top running backs. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams weren't asked back, forced to sign deals to back up fantasy first-rounders. Bush has averaged a mere 70 rushing attempts over the past three seasons. Now he's the main guy? Say what you will about Bush, but this is a clear indictment of the rookie so many people thought would be terrific from the get-go.

The book on Thomas' rookie season is far from written, of course, but the fact that he's currently being selected 32nd among running backs and in the ninth round overall in ESPN average live drafts likely means fantasy owners are buying into his immediate upside. And there is upside. In fact, I kind of think we'll see Bush get a whole lotta touches the first month of the season, with Thomas being worked in more and more with each passing week. But relying on either one of these running backs is dangerous.
For what it's worth, Sparano also has told reporters he expects Bush "to have the most touches and carries" in the team's backfield this season. Sure, that sounds great. Bush is extremely talented. He's also fragile. Bush's health will absolutely impact how busy Thomas is, but don't assume Thomas will jump right in there and be a workhorse back if Bush gets hurt early in the season. Sparano has publicly said the rookie has been tip-toeing at the line of scrimmage, rather than boldly hitting the holes, and has called him tentative. Thomas hasn't done much to prove otherwise; he's averaging barely three yards per carry this preseason (not that preseason stats matter much). But Thomas should be good eventually, and he should be better than Bush as a pure running back (in terms of catching the ball out of the backfield, Bush might have no peer). These guys should be working in tandem.
And they will be. But it is dangerous to pump up Bush's value in pending fantasy drafts when we know so much about his disappointing career. We also know that no rookie running back has rushed for more than 1,000 yards in either of the past two seasons, save for the undrafted (in real-life and fantasy) LeGarrette Blount. I think that's telling. Thomas is not likely to rush for 1,000 yards this season. Sparano is telling all of us that. But when you're dropping the rookie down on your rankings, try not to do the inverse on the former Heisman winner. I'm betting neither of them even approaches 200 rushing attempts this season. In fact, now might be the right time to point out that sitting at No. 3 on the Miami running back depth chart is former fantasy monster Larry Johnson … no, I can't go there. Not yet, and maybe not ever again.