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hacheman@therx.com
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Foster's Fury

We don’t know exactly when Peyton Manning will be back on the field because no one knows the answer to that. All we can do is look at his reported symptoms and timetables to help us understand what is going on.

To get a better idea of Manning‘s issue and Arian Foster's hamstring, we chatted with Brian Eckenrode, PT, DPT, MS, OCS and sports rehabilitation specialist for GSPP Penn Therapy and Fitness at the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia. For more info on GSPP and the Penn Sports Medicine Center, head to Phillyrehab.com.


PEYTON MANNING

Injury: Neck surgery May 23 to repair a bulging disk
Current status: Not practicing, out indefinitely

Manning reportedly has weakness in his triceps, back soreness and his velocity is down. What does that tell us? Usually that indicates that he had some pressure in there, which is nothing to take lightly. … All, right we have a disc pushing on a nerve, let’s take the disc out and do something to take the pressure off the nerve. Now that the pressure has been removed, it still takes time for that to resolve. Or there’s something else going on that was worse than we thought going into this.

What we don’t know is how weak Manning is compared to his normal strength. If it’s weak enough where it's noticeable, that’s a big deal.

The Colts are saying Manning needs to wait for nerve regeneration. How long could that take? It depends on the extent of how bad it was. They usually say a nerve takes about a millimeter a day to grow. That’s going to take some time. It also depends on where the nerve has been injured. If you kind of think of it like he’s got a kink in a garden hose somewhere along the way where the flow is impaired. So he’s got some nerve conduction going through the muscle but it’s not quite where it needs to be. It could take months, or even a year or two, for that to resolve. It all depends on the extent of it.

Sometimes people have weakness and numbness, some people just have weakness and some people have pain related with this. He can play through a certain amount of pain, but the fact that he doesn’t have a certain amount of strength is concerning.

If Manning were to need yet another procedure on his neck, how long would be out? Oh, he’d be done for the year, or at least a good chunk of the season.


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ARIAN FOSTER
Injury: Aggravation of hamstring strain
Current status: Questionable for Week 1

You’ve had a chance to see the MRI that Foster tweeted last week? You can certainly see the areas of inflammation. The white on the MRI is fluid. So he’s got quite a bit of it. Of course, this is only one slice of an MRI. When they do an MRI, it’s multiple slices. This is only part of the picture. The MRI doesn’t always indicate the severity of the injury. You could have an MRI that looks like this and be fine.

Is a hamstring the worst muscle group for an athlete to strain? I wouldn’t say it’s the worst one, but for someone at his position, the acceleration and cutting and shifting you have to do is a little hard when you don’t have your hamstring at full strength. Now if he was a marathon runner, he might not have an issue because he won't be sprinting and using his power. If Foster does play this week, he’s unlikely to have the same acceleration.

MATT CASSEL
Injury: Cracked rib
Current status: Practicing, fully expected to start Week 1

NFL players can play with cracked ribs all the time, right? Right. It depends on the severity and the location. If Cassel can throw, he’ll be OK. It’s more about pain tolerance than anything else.

Will a flak jacket hinder him at all? It’ll restrict a little bit of motion, but with the way it is cut around the shoulders he’ll be fine. If he takes a hit there, he’ll definitely feel it, but the vest will lessen the blow.


Editor's Note:
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NEWS OF THE DAY #1

We finally have some clarity in the Packers’ backfield. The answer: No clarity…yet.

The coaches have announced that the plan is to give Ryan Grant and James Starks equal reps in Thursday’s opener against the Saints. It’s going to be a hot hand, possession-by-possession kind of committee -- making neither back a great fantasy play.

But thinking long term, Starks is the clear winner here. Grant entered camp as the starter and it was his job to lose. Well, he lost it. Starks is gaining on the declining veteran, who is likely still struggling to regain form off last year’s severe ankle injury. Those that haven’t drafted yet should be moving Starks well ahead of Grant.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
David Garrard’s roster spot -- and $8.075 million contract -- appeared to be safe after Blaine Gabbert showed little in the preseason and cut-down day passed on Saturday. Nope. In a shocker, Garrard was cut Tuesday, just five days before the season opener. Luke McCown will start and Gabbert will back him up.

The outlooks for the Jags’ skill players isn’t affected greatly. In seven career starts, McCown has averaged 203.2 yards passing with a 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio. His record in those games is also 1-6. Nevertheless, McCown isn’t tentative and has had some huge preseasons in Jacksonville for what that’s worth. Mike Thomas, Marcedes Lewis and Maurice Jones-Drew don’t deserve downgrades.

Meanwhile, Garrard could be an upgrade for a team like San Francisco, Seattle or Miami. The outlooks of players such as Michael Crabtree, Sidney Rice or Brandon Marshall could soon be on the rise.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
The Bears released their official depth chart for Week 1 and Roy Williams was listed ahead of Johnny Knox. To me, that doesn’t mean all too much. The Bears are realizing that Knox is the better player and figure to get him in the game quickly. After a few weeks, it will be Knox’s name on top of that depth chart. Devin Hester is the starter at flanker, but isn’t a fantasy option outside of return-yardage leagues.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS: RUNNING BACKS
LeGarrette Blount will not play on third downs as Earnest Graham has won that job. … Delone Carter has beaten out Donald Brown for the backup running back gig. … Ryan Torain enters the season as the No. 3 back behind Tim Hightower and Roy Helu. … Chris Johnson says he already has Chris Palmer’s new offensive scheme down. He’s ready for a full workload. … Fred Jackson has won the starting running back job, as expected. Not much upside though with C.J. Spiller lurking and a woeful offensive line. … Keiland Williams could be headed for a short-yardage and goal-line role in Detroit. He’s their only big back. … DeMarco Murray is ahead of Tashard Choice as Felix Jones’ backup.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS: MISCELLANEOUS
The Niners’ depth chart lists Ted Ginn “or” Braylon Edwards opposite Josh Morgan. And Michael Crabtree (foot) says he’ll be ready by Sunday. In other words, avoid at all costs. … Aqib Talib is expected to shadow Calvin Johnson Sunday. … Andre Roberts has beaten out Early Doucet for the No. 2 receiver gig, but figures to play in a rotation. … Brian Robiskie will start opposite Mohamed Massaquoi. Greg Little will come off the bench for now. … Brady Quinn is ahead of Tim Tebow for the backup gig. … Dan Bailey may give way to David Buehler on long field-goal attempts. It’s a bad fantasy kicking situation. … Brandon LaFell is listed ahead of Legedu Naanee opposite Steve Smith.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Lance Moore (groin) did not practice Tuesday. He’s headed for a true game-time decision Thursday in a poor matchup. … Steve Smith Eagles (knee) will only have a limited package of plays to start the season. He’s off the radar. … Miles Austin (hamstring) continues to be on track to play, but is scheduled to square off with a healthy Darrelle Revis. … Emmanuel Sanders (foot) is a full go as he begins his push for a gradually increasing role.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Early target watch
Each season we devoted faux footballers attempt to read the tealeaves and chicken bones to gain an advantage for our squad of phonies. For this column we are going to look at good old-fashioned numbers.

Offensive coordinators and their quarterbacks are often creatures of habit and that habit usually revolves around giving the ball to players who will help them win football games. I will try my darnedest to figure out from week to week who they want handling the ball, especially in the red zone and goal line where they happen to be closer to where the magic happens.

As you well know preseason stats are mostly skewed, particularly when taken out of context, but looking at the overall targets while the starting offensive players were in can provide a window into the regular season. Let’s take a look:

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Sam Bradford - Rams: Lance Kendricks 12, Danny Amendola 9, Cadillac Williams 7, Brandon Gibson 6, Mike Sims-Walker 4

The Belichick disciple Josh McDaniels is going to throw the ball, but unlike some offensive schemes you can’t automatically say what positions will benefit. Beli-ball is situational and based on personnel. The Rams have a healthy receiving tight end in Lance Kendricks and Sam Bradford is still dinking and dunking for the time being. Kendricks and Amendola will get their looks.

Tom Brady - Patriots: Wes Welker 12, Aaron Hernandez 12, Chad Ochocinco 7, Rob Gronkowski 4

All last season we tried to predict who out of Gronkowski and Hernandez would be the better fantasy starter and it ended up being Gronkowski due to his touchdown production. Hernandez was used much more often in preseason and showed he is a true playmaker. These two will once again be hard to choose between from week to week, but Hernandez is poised to step up.

Drew Brees - Saints: Jimmy Graham 13, Darren Sproles 6, Marques Colston 5, Lance Moore 4, Devery Henderson 4, Robert Meachem 4

Sean Payton and Drew Brees love to spread the ball around. Add to that their receivers tend to be injured and you have a heck of a time figuring out who will get looks any given Sunday. Graham’s numbers are a bit skewed from one half, but if he can stay healthy he could end up being the Saints most targeted receiver.


Jay Cutler - Bears: Earl Bennett 11, Devin Hester 7, Roy Williams 7, Dane Sanzenbacher 4, Johnny Knox 2

Mad Martz has some odd ideas - and the demotion of Johnny Knox was a big one. Knox’s 2 targets should go up as they realize Devin Hester and Roy Williams aren’t that good, but until then we can take away something from Earl Bennett’s 11 targets. Cutler clearly trusts him and if all goes well he’s my pick to be the target hog in Chicago.


Donovan McNabb - Vikings: Bernard Berrian 9, Percy Harvin 7, Michael Jenkins 5

BB lives! The Favre soured on Bernard Berrian and probably for good reason, but he seems to be healthy and McNabb is a good deep ball passer. With no real deep threat, Berrian has a chance to be useful this season.


Kyle Orton - Broncos: Brandon Lloyd 14, Eddie Royal 7, Eric Decker 5, Knowshon Moreno 4, Julius Thomas

Orton knows what he has in Brandon Lloyd. Yes, Fox’s offense is run first, but there should be enough targets for Brandon Lloyd to be useful once again. It’s hard to say that for Eddie Royal and Eric Decker who may end up fighting each other and Julius Thomas for looks.


Tony Romo - Cowboys: Dez Bryant 13, Jason Witten 9, Kevin Ogletree 6, Felix Jones 5

The absence of Miles Austin due to hamstring issues skews these numbers, but it’s good that Dez Bryant was able to see some game time with Tony Romo and bodes well for a fast start. The five targets for Felix Jones just reinforces the hype he’s getting this preseason. He’ll see the ball a lot.


Matt Ryan - Falcons: Julio Jones 16, Roddy White 13, Harry Douglas 10, Tony Gonzalez 10

The Falcons so far have made good on the prediction they would throw more with Julio Jones in the fold. How much this rolls over into the regular season remains to be seen, but a more open offense will help Matt Ryan and all of his receivers, even Harry Douglas. Turner will still get work, albeit less, which may keep him healthy as he loses the battle to old age.


Michael Vick - Eagles: LeSean McCoy 11, DeSean Jackson 7, Jason Avant 5, Brent Celek 5

Jeremy Maclin's return from his run as a guest star on ‘House’ changes these numbers for the regular season, but the trouble surrounding the offensive line and Michael Vick’s trouble finding his receivers down field in a timely manner bode well for the PPR machine Shady McCoy.


Aaron Rodgers - Packers: Donald Driver 9, Greg Jennings 9, Jermichael Finley 9, James Starks 6, Jordy Nelson 5

Donald Driver hasn’t been buried yet, but it’s extremely hard to believe he’ll hold up long enough to keep Jordy Nelson at bay. The true battle for targets and production will be between Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings. The fact that there is a battle at all caps Jennings’ ceiling.
 

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Matchups: Saints @ Packers
New Orleans @ Green Bay

Get your Saints and Packers going on Thursday night. The 47.5-point over-under is the highest of Week 1. ... Aaron Rodgers is primed to start fast after a second straight assassin-like August. In the past two preseasons combined, Rodgers has completed 78-of-100 passes for 865 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Saints return all four secondary starters from last year's top-four pass defense, but are without suspended RE Will Smith and have slowly nursed back RCB Tracy Porter from knee surgery. In the projected shootout, Rodgers is a no-brainer top-two QB play. ... If you own Greg Jennings, you probably drafted him in the second round. Start him, but you'll be disappointed over the course of the year with large drops in touchdowns and yards. ... Jermichael Finley will destroy coverage liability SS Roman Harper. Lock in Finley.

The writing was on the wall this preseason, when Ryan Grant and James Starks rotated with the first-team offense. The Packers announced Monday that their Week 1 blueprint is to give Grant and Starks equal carries, leading either to a "hot hand" situation or "working combination" (i.e. RBBC). While neither back can be counted on to exceed 15 attempts Thursday, the plan is an indirect nod to Starks. Grant entered camp as the starter, was outplayed by Starks, and has now lost his lead back role. Starks is only a low-end RB2/flex against an improved Saints defense, but he is the favorite to lead Green Bay in touches this year. ... James Jones was silent in the preseason and is coming off a knee injury, so he may struggle for snaps out of the chute. Behind Jennings and Finley, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver are neck and neck for third in the targets pecking order.

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Drew Brees is an every-week starter, but expectations should be scaled back Thursday. In Dom Capers' 37 games as Packers defensive boss, just five opposing quarterbacks have passed for 300 yards. It can't help that slot receiver Lance Moore -- headed for an expanded role this season -- is iffy with a groin pull that's lingered for over two weeks. Even if Moore plays, his effectiveness is a question mark. Like the Saints, the Packers fielded a top-five pass defense last season and return all defensive back starters. ... Marques Colston played sparingly in August after offseason microfracture surgery. Like Brees, Colston is a must-start in what should be a high-scoring game. Colston is likely to match up often with Packers shutdown RCB Tramon Williams outside and Charles Woodson in the slot, however. Think of Colston as more of a high-end WR3 than WR2.

The Saints still list Devery Henderson as their starting Z receiver over Robert Meachem. Those two are headed for another consistency-killing timeshare and are WR5s. ... Jimmy Graham is the Saints' pass catcher to be excited about in this one. The third preseason game is when teams play their starters the most, and Graham played 26 of the Saints' 32 first-team snaps in that exhibition. He saw eight targets in less than a half, catching a game-high five passes for 73 yards. The coaching staff is clearly comfortable with Graham's blocking (he blocked on nine plays and ran a pass route on 17), and he'll open the season as an every-down tight end. Make sure to start Graham in this game. ... The Saints' backfield is a three-way committee, but roles are established: Pierre Thomas starts and rotates with Mark Ingram. Darren Sproles plays on passing downs. Ingram has the most fantasy value because he's the heavy favorite for all red-zone work.
 

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Manning's Melodrama

What would the Daily Dose be without another update on everybody’s favorite T.V. pitchman/second best quarterback in the NFL?

Yes, the Peyton Manning rumor carousel continued to spin without cease on Wednesday, and like it has been for most of the past few days, the “news” (read: hearsay and conjecture) was not good.

Although no one can seem to agree on whether or not the four-time MVP is headed for a third operation on his ailing neck, the man who would know best — Colts owner Jim Isray — refused to rule out such a possibility in a typically peculiar tweet last night.

Suddenly, those who thought they were getting the steal of a lifetime when Manning fell into their laps in the sixth round could be staring at a season that’s over before it’s even begun (unless you’re comfortable with your QB2 Luke McCown).

Isray has assured that definitive word on his franchise player’s status will come soon, and though there’s still reason to hope for the best, it’s clear you also need to be prepared for the worst.


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NEWS OF THE DAY #2
Making almost as equally unwanted news as Manning on Wednesday was Arian Foster, who missed practice and admitted he doesn’t know if his troublesome left hamstring will be ready to go against the Colts this Sunday.

If Foster sits out for the second straight day this afternoon, the Ben Tate watch will need to be upgraded to a warning.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
While the status of Manning and Foster grew murkier yesterday, Lance Moore’s was clarified: he’s out for tonight’s season opener against the Packers.

A rock solid WR3 last season, Moore missed the final two weeks of training camp with a groin injury, and suddenly finds himself in a vulnerable situation in the Saints’ receiver corps thanks to the rocket ascension of second-year TE Jimmy Graham.

Graham soaked up looks in Moore’s absence in New Orleans’ final two preseason games, and could ensure Moore is knocked down from second in Drew Brees’ pecking order of favorite targets with a big game against a stout Green Bay defense this evening.

NEWS OF THE DAY #4
Bucs GM Mark Dominik made minor waves on Wednesday when he said on ProFootballTalk Live Tampa is planning to go with "more of a committee approach" in the backfield this season.

In reality, however, nothing has changed. LeGarrette Blount was not a third-down back last year and was not going to be one this season. Blount’s backups, Kregg Lumpkin and Earnest Graham, are nowhere near the downhill runners he is, and are little threat to his early-down and goal-line supremacy. It is indeed a committee in Tampa Bay, but it’s still modeled after the one that netted Blount over 1,000 yards in only 13 games in 2010.

NEWS OF THE DAY #5
A staple of vulture watch lists this preseason, Marion Barber now finds himself on another list he’s all too familiar with: the injury report.

His calf injury was classified as nothing to worry about when he suffered it in Chicago’s third preseason game, but has predictably gone from minor to holding him out of Week 1 practice.

Considered “unlikely” to suit up this Sunday by the Chicago Sun-Times, it could be wise to use this as an opportunity to take a mulligan on your selection of Barber in the final rounds of your draft. Deji Karim, Jonathan Stewart and Ricky Williams all come to mind as backups that either rushed for more than 3.3 yards per carry last season or don't have lengthy histories of leg injuries.

NEWS OF THE DAY #6
David Garrard’s time spent playing for Seahawks QBs coach Carl Smith in 2005-07 made Seattle the early favorite for his services upon his stunning Tuesday release. That connection coupled with Tarvaris Jackson’s miserable play during the preseason conspired to make the move seem like almost a no-brainer.

Alas, we found out on Wednesday Garrard will not be Puget Sound bound. "No. There will be none," was HC Pete Carroll’s response when asked if he was seeking an upgrade for his starting quarterback.

Garrard has reportedly narrowed his list of potential new teams to two, and anecdotal evidence suggests the 49ers are one of them. Although it’s still not clear where Garrard will end up, one thing is: in a league where Jackson, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith and Andy Dalton all currently own starting jobs, there’s no reason Garrard should find himself on the sidelines this season.

NON-NEWS OF THE DAY
The second least compelling backup quarterback drama of the young season took another turn on Wednesday when Panthers HC Ron Rivera shot down reports he’s decided to go with Derek Anderson over Jimmy Clausen as his No. 2 quarterback.

Officially, he’s “still not made a decision.”

The news will be devastating for whomever loses. For Clausen, it would mean that despite being the No. 48 overall pick a little more than 15 months ago, he couldn’t beat out this man to backup a rookie.

For Anderson, it will mean that despite being a 28-year-old man with 43 career starts under his belt, he couldn't beat out this man to, again, backup a rookie.

Perhaps once Rivera finally ends all the breathless speculation, Clausen and Anderson can join up with Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow for a late night Skype session to talk about how unfair life is.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Jeremy Maclin (illness) is “full go” for Philadelphia’s Sunday tilt with the Rams. … The same cannot be said for Sidney Rice (shoulder) and Seattle’s visit to San Francisco. … Michael Crabtree (foot) came close to being a full participant in Niners practice on Wednesday, and is beginning to look likely to suit up this weekend. … Terrence Newman is out for the Cowboys, which means Santonio Holmes should be in the endzone. … Still slowly recovering from a knee injury he suffered in Oakland’s second preseason game, Kevin Boss is unlikely to suit up against the Broncos on Monday. … A one time sleeper candidate, rookie Chargers WR Vincent Brown will be inactive this weekend after missing a large chunk of training camp with a quad injury. … The same should also be true for Jonathan Baldwin, who has yet to resume catching passes after breaking his thumb in a locker-room skirmish last month.
 

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Week 1 Rankings

Week 1 remains my favorite week of the season. We have the most football ahead of us and everything is possible. After the offseason we just endured, opening week feels extra sweet.

Everything was different this offseason, but we’re back to normal now. I’ll be posting Goal Line Stand with rankings and notes every Thursday by 1 p.m. ET. Same as it ever was, since 2003. I’m getting old.

You’ll notice that Chris Wesseling is sharing the byline this year. We combine to put the rankings together and it only felt fair. Wesseling is a huge part of what we do at Rotoworld on the free side and on our Season Pass. You can get the rankings early each week (Tuesday at noon) at Season Pass, along with a ton of other exclusive stat tools, analysis, weekly projections, and top 200 rankings.

Let’s get on to the good stuff. It’s been too long.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Matthew Stafford</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Matt Schaub</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Tony Romo</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Sam Bradford</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jay Cutler</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Kyle Orton</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Kevin Kolb</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Donovan McNabb</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Colt McCoy</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Cam Newton</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Matt Hasselbeck</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Jason Campbell</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Matt Cassel</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Probable(ribs)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Chad Henne</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Luke McCown</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Kerry Collins</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Tarvaris Jackson</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Andy Dalton</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
QB Notes: This is a week where you shouldn’t play the matchups too much. We don’t know what we don’t know yet. We don’t know what teams are truly different or what matchups are truly advantageous. Expect your assumptions to get rocked. In general, that’s why I recommend just playing the guys you drafted to start. You took them early for a reason. Look to the matchups and other factors only when a decision is truly close.

Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman got slight bumps this week. Detroit’s offense couldn’t have looked any better in the preseason. The Bucs offense couldn’t have looked much worse, but this game has the potential to be high scoring. … I don’t trust Michael Vick’s protection at all. That is more of a concern long-term than it is this week, but this is a great test against a vastly underrated Rams front.

I am looking forward to seeing Drew Brees against a top-notch defense Thursday night. Brees got a pass last year for uneven play. He’s safe in fantasy leagues, but people seem to ignore that his 2010 season was a step back from the previous 2-3 years. … The Cowboys defense is banged up. In a perfect world, that would mean Tony Romo plays comeback all night against the Jets and throws 50 passes. Unfortunately, Dallas is without their left tackle and the Jets could control the clock all night. He’s a good, but not great play.

Like Kyle Orton last year, Sam Bradford figures to be a volume thrower. I’m going to rank him as a high QB2 most weeks until he proves me wrong. … Orton is ranked ahead Kevin Kolb because Orton knows the Broncos system down cold. And because I’ve watched the Raiders secondary. Kolb remains a work in progress, even in a good matchup on paper. … Colt McCoy is available in a lot of leagues and could be an interesting spot starter in the right matchup during the year. The same goes for Cam Newton. Love those rushing yards.


<!--RW-->Week 1 Running Backs
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jamaal Charles</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Darren McFadden</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Jahvid Best</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Mark Ingram</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Ryan Mathews</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Mike Tolbert</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>James Starks</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Ben Tate</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Danny Woodhead</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Derrick Ward</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Delone Carter</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Daniel Thomas</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Jerome Harrison</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Kendall Hunter</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>53</TD><TD>Deji Karim</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>54</TD><TD>Tashard Choice</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>55</TD><TD>DeMarco Murray</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>56</TD><TD>Roy Helu</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>57</TD><TD>Leon Washington</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>58</TD><TD>Montario Hardesty</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

RB Notes: Early signs aren’t great for Arian Foster. We’ll update all week on Rotoworld. If he plays, just put him in your lineup. Don’t get cute. Derrick Ward would likely start if Foster is out. Ben Tate will still be ranked higher because of his explosive ability. Expect those two to split carries. They both would be fine RB2/flex options if Foster is out. … Maurice Jones-Drew gets the benefit of the doubt despite his knee surgery and Luke McCown starting. It could take him some time to round into form.

Evan Silva didn’t like what he saw out of Steven Jackson in August. It’s hard to disagree. The burst appears to be waning faster than people realize. Hopefully he’ll get enough carries to make up for it. … Michael Turner is another guy to watch closely this week. It’s a tough matchup on paper against the Bears. Atlanta has more options than ever behind Turner. … The injury to Brandon Jackson could get Peyton Hillis on the field more on third downs early in the year. The question is whether he’ll hold up all year.

DeAngelo Williams may be underrated in these rankings, but the Panthers offensive line looked terrible in the preseason. They couldn’t pass protect, which will create short drives. … LeGarrette Blount won’t be on the field as much as his owners want. He’s poor in pass protection. Blount and Michael Turner have similar profiles as late RB2s that may have been overdrafted.

Both Chargers running backs make good options in this matchup. It’s easy to see San Diego rolling up a big early lead. … James Starks gets the edge over Ryan Grant. Starks is more likely to get catches and big plays. … Michael Bush isn’t a bad deep sleeper for a flex in a great matchup against Denver’s awful banged-up defensive tackles. … I’m very curious to see how the Panthers use Johnathan Stewart after a quiet camp. You get the sense it may be less of a committee with Ron Rivera in town. Stewart’s struggles on passing downs could keep him off the field.

Week 1 Wide Receivers
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>Probable(thigh)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Dez Bryant</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Sidelined(neck)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Kenny Britt</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Mario Manningham</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Steve Johnson</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Mike Thomas</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Julio Jones</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Plaxico Burress</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>A.J. Green</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Austin Collie</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Lee Evans</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Danny Amendola</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Davone Bess</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Braylon Edwards</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Sidney Rice</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>Questionable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Malcom Floyd</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Robert Meachem</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Derrick Mason</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Johnny Knox</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Antonio Brown</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Jason Hill</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Brandon Gibson</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Mohamed Massaquoi</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>60</TD><TD>Eddie Royal</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>61</TD><TD>Kevin Walter</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>62</TD><TD>Earl Bennett</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>63</TD><TD>Jacoby Jones</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>64</TD><TD>Greg Little</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>65</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>66</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>67</TD><TD>Andre Roberts</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>68</TD><TD>Jerome Simpson</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>69</TD><TD>Harry Douglas</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

WR Notes: We’ll get to see where Marques Colston is in his recovery from knee surgery. This should be a Colston game. Lance Moore is out, while Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson could struggle with Green Bay’s physical press coverage. Silva and Wesseling don’t feel me on my Colston love, but I suspect he’ll provide solid top-15 value like he always does. … Mike Wallace would show me something with a strong game against Baltimore. I love the kid, but he was essentially shut down in the AFC playoffs against physical teams like the Ravens and Jets.
Miles Austin figures to draw Darrelle Revis most of the night, although that could change if Dez Bryant does damage to Antonio Cromartie. …I’m convinced Vincent Jackson can finish as the top-ranked WR in non-PPR leagues. He starts with a decent test against Antoine Winfield, but the Chargers are terrific at creating advantageous matchups. … Kenny Britt is safe to play. The matchup looks good on paper, but there is some concern because it’s a new offense and he has to prove he can stay healthy. … I’m a lot higher on Wes Welker this year than Wesseling. Chad Ochocinco will be the Patriots’ No. 3 receiver for a while; Welker is the No. 1. It’s a tough matchup against Miami’s cornerbacks, though.

Perhaps Brandon Lloyd can light up the Raiders on the last game of Week One like Eddie Royal did a few years ago. Oakland’s secondary is shaky. … Plaxico Burress’ size could be a problem for Dallas’ depleted secondary. … I don’t trust Jeremy Maclin this week. He just started practicing and hasn’t taken a hit yet. The team may be conservative with his snaps.

The Colts receivers have obviously been knocked way down without Peyton Manning. None of them are must starts, but I’d still play Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie as WR3s. … Sidney Rice is highly uncertain to play. Stay away this week. … The Rams receivers will be tough to predict on a week-to-week basis. For now, we see Mike Sims-Walker and Danny Amendola as borderline options.



<!--RW-->

Week 1 Tight Ends


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Antonio Gates</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jermichael Finley</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Dallas Clark</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Jared Cook</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Evan Moore</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Zach Miller</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Lance Kendricks</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Visanthe Shiancoe</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Fred Davis</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Ben Watson</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Todd Heap</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Chris Cooley</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

TE Notes: Antonio Gates is healthy. As long as that’s the case, he’s my No. 1 tight end until proven otherwise. … Owen Daniels gets a bump this week against the small Colts secondary that is short on depth. … It’s strange to rank two tight ends from the same team in the top ten. But Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski may really be the No. 2 and No.3 receivers on one of the best offenses in football. I like Hernandez better long-term.

There isn’t much difference between tight ends No. 8-23. I’m not exaggerating. There will be disappointments and breakouts, but the TE2 crop this season ranks as the best ever. It’s staggeringly easy to fill the position. It’s almost like tight end is the new kicker; there will always be a guy available on the waiver wire. … The Evan Moore hype has made it to Rotoworld. He could easily lad the Brown in receptions.

Week 1 Team Defense


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Chargers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Titans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Broncos Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Week 1 Kickers


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Nate Kaeding</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Jason Hanson</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Alex Henery</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Matt Prater</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>at SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>vs. NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Ryan Succop</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Dan Bailey</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Rian Lindell</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>vs. CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Mike Nugent</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Steven Hauschka</TD><TD>at SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Boldly going into Week 1

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com

You heard me!

With a preseason shortened by the lockout, we ran out of time to do all of my normal favorites, including one of my most popular, the bold predictions piece I call "You heard me!" The idea is that we pretend we know each other. And then we pretend that not only do we know each other, but we like each other enough to hang out. And then pretend, instead of talking about my two favorite subjects (me and no, seriously, pretty much just me), we were actually talking sports. And I said something like "I think Tony Romo leads the NFL in passing yards this season." And you'd say "What?!?" And then I'd say, "You heard me! Now, what were you were saying about me?"


So instead of a typical "Love/Hate" intro this week, I thought I'd do a quick version of my bold predictions for the year, before the season kicks off tonight. Keep in mind that in order for a prediction to be bold, it has to go against conventional wisdom. Saying Drew Brees is a top-5 fantasy quarterback this year isn't a bold prediction, it's conventional. Saying injury-prone Matthew Stafford will be? That's bold and unexpected and unconventional. Given the right circumstances (him staying upright for 16 games being a big one), it could happen.


So here, now, is a bold prediction for every other NFL team to go along with my Stafford one, which I'm serious about, with a quick line of why I think, if everything breaks right, it could happen:


Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a top-12 fantasy quarterback. My thinking: He had a stretch last year where he was the hottest fantasy QB out there. Now he's had a full preseason with reps as the No. 1 starter (he was the backup heading into last season) and the whole team has a year's experience in Chan Gailey's system.


Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne throws for more than 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns. My thinking: Looking at next-level stats, he got unlucky last season. A better year out of Brandon Marshall and pass-catching Reggie Bush out of the backfield will help.

New England Patriots: Aaron Hernandez, the 18th tight end being drafted, finishes top-10 at the position. My thinking: He's a matchup problem who can run all sorts of routes and Brady will look for him a lot more often than folks think. This narrowly beats out Randy Moss re-signing with the Pats. Hey, they still need a deep threat.


New York Jets: Shonn Greene is a top-10 fantasy running back. My thinking: If I keep saying it, one of these years it will come true.


Dallas Cowboys: 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns for Dez Bryant. My thinking: I ranked Austin ahead of Bryant because he's safer and proven, but if you told me one Cowboys wide receiver explodes into Andre Johnson territory this season, I'd say it's Dez, who has the physical tools and is in the right system to put up crazy numbers.


New York Giants: Eli Manning has the worst statistical season of his career and becomes not startable in non bye weeks of 16-team leagues. My thinking: Had 30 turnovers last year and he's looked terrible this preseason. Lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in the offseason.


Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick plays all 16 games. My thinking: What the hell. I'm already all in on him as it is.


Washington Redskins: 1,500 total yards for Tim Hightower. My thinking: It hasn't been recently, but Mike Shanahan has stuck with one running back and gotten big seasons out of them before.


Denver Broncos: 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns for Willis McGahee. My thinking: They've already said he's the goal-line back. You know John Fox will run it, and with Moreno's injury history ...


Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles is the No. 1 fantasy running back this year. My thinking: Schedule, schmedule. He was the third-best fantasy running back last year and scored only five rushing touchdowns. If he gets that up to eight or nine ...


San Diego Chargers: Mike Tolbert, who went four rounds later than Ryan Mathews, has more fantasy points at the end of the year. My thinking: Tolbert is the better blocker and will be in on more passing downs, they'll ultimately wind up splitting carries and Tolbert is the goal- line back. Mathews has yet to prove anything.


Oakland Raiders: 1,000 yards for Jacoby Ford. My thinking: Someone's gotta catch it.


Arizona Cardinals: A career high of 120 receptions for Larry Fitzgerald. My thinking: John Clayton brought this point up during the ESPN Radio Chicago fantasy football convention: He had 173 targets last year and caught 90 with the worst quarterback play possible. They're still gonna throw it a ton, especially with no running back depth, and if he just catches two more balls a game ...


San Francisco 49ers: 1,000 yards and seven scores for Michael Crabtree. My thinking: The hate has gone too far.


Seattle Seahawks: 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns for Marshawn Lynch. My thinking: What are they gonna do, let Tarvaris throw it?


St. Louis Rams: Lance Kendricks is a top-10 fantasy tight end. My thinking: Did you see him this preseason? The Rams love him. And so do I.


Baltimore Ravens: 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns for Anquan Boldin. My thinking: He's the best receiver they have and now Lee Evans will help stretch the field.


Cincinnati Bengals: Under 800 rushing yards for Cedric Benson. My thinking: Ever seen 11 men in the box? Because I think Benson's about to.


Cleveland Browns: 3,300 yards, 20 total TDs, 250 yards rushing for Colt McCoy. My thinking: Slightly less than what Josh Freeman put up last year, I just sort of like McCoy. He's gutty.


Pittsburgh Steelers: Over the second half of the season, Isaac Redman is a top-20 fantasy running back. My thinking: Rashard Mendenhall succumbs to the Curse of 370 (playoff edition).


Chicago Bears: Under Mike Martz for a second year, Jay Cutler has an even worse statistical season than last season. My thinking: Was my bold prediction last year and it came true. Why not double down?
Detroit Lions: See Stafford above. All in on the Lions this year.


Green Bay Packers: Jermichael Finley will be the No. 1 tight end in fantasy. My thinking: Antonio Gates' foot is still an issue and Dallas Clark could very well have Kerry Collins throwing to him all season.


Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin has 1,300 total yards. My thinking: They're gonna do everything possible to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, including snapping it directly to him.


Houston Texans: Arian Foster finishes outside the top 10 of fantasy running backs. My thinking: Going against history with a bad hammy is a tough task.


Indianapolis Colts: Double-digit scores for Delone Carter. My thinking: What are they gonna do, let Kerry throw it? Or worse, give it to Donald Brown?


Tennessee Titans: 1,300 yards and 13 scores for Kenny Britt. My thinking: I love Kenny Britt. I just do.


Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew finishes outside the top 10 of fantasy running backs and has the worst statistical year of his career since his rookie season. My thinking: See Benson, Cedric.


Atlanta Falcons: Under 500 yards for Tony Gonzalez. My thinking: He had only 656 last year, so it's not even that bold. Unless you owned him last year, you don't realize how much he's fallen off.


Carolina Panthers: 10 touchdowns for Greg Olsen. My thinking: Tight end-friendly coach, offensive coordinator and a young quarterback looking for a big target in the red zone.


New Orleans Saints: 14 touchdowns for Mark Ingram. My thinking: They run a lot more in the red zone than you realize and if he stays healthy and gets all the carries (no guarantee on either), this offense scores enough that it could happen.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LeGarrette Blount rushes for 1,500 yards. My thinking: Was third in the NFL in rushing yards over the final eight games last season and still has the "something to prove" chip on his shoulder.


And my final bold prediction? Despite explaining the premise of "Love/Hate," there will still be people every week who don't understand the concept. I know. Not that bold.


But here we are, back yet again for another year of Love/Hate. For those who have never read it before or don't remember, this is my weekly column about players I am higher ("love") or lower ("hate") on than the rest of my fellow rankers. For where I view specific players in comparison to every other player, please check out my weekly rankings, published Wednesday and updated Friday.


That's another way of saying "Hey, don't use this purely as a start/sit column." Just because I have Rex Grossman as a love this week and Josh Freeman as a hate does not mean I would sit the Buc for the Washington QB. It does mean, however, that I have Freeman just outside my top 10 this week (all other rankers have him as a must-start) and that, while my fellow analysts don't have Grossman in their top 25, I have him at 20, making him a decent flyer in a two-QB league. Again, always check the rankings, think about the context and use the information to make the best possible decision.


By the way, for Love/Hate this year, I am trying to decide if I should base it off where I differ the most from my other rankers or if I should do it based on where I differ the most from season ranks. Like, if I have a guy who is the 20th-highest scoring RB for the year but have him at 10 that week, he'd be a "love." I've put a poll up on my Facebook page, so please vote. And with that, here we go.



Week 1 Players I Love:

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles (No. 1 in my ranks, average No. 4 by other rankers): All. In.


Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (7, 11): Stafford should have a good game here. Or, should I say, as Bill Simmons joked on my B.S. Report appearance, Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy should have a good game here. That should be his full name. Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy. Anyway, the Bucs had one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL last year (only one team had fewer sacks), so we'll see if they fixed that this season. I expect lots of time for Stafford to throw out of the shotgun in this one and for him to have a big day.


Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (8, 11): I actually thought I was low on Romo, what with the Jets and all. Turns out I'm highest on him. I love the Cowboys this year and while I don't have Romo in my top six like I did in my preseason ranks, I also think, Jets or no Jets, he's a stud and Week 1 is way too early to bench your studs. I just can't see recommending benching him in a standard league, which is what two of my fellow rankers are suggesting by ranking him outside the top 10.


Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (20, NR): Again, only for deeper two-QB leagues, but he did have over 300 yards and two scores against the Giants last season. New York's defense is really banged up, the Redskins are going to have to throw in this game (they'll be down and the Redskins were fourth in pass attempts last year to begin with) and well, um ... that's all I got. What do you want from me? He's Rex Grossman.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots (17, 23): Business is booming for law firms in Miami. Including The Law Firm. See what I did there? Ah, it's the first week. I'm still warming up. Anyway, at least 80 total yards and a score in each game against Miami last year, expect another score and 100 yards as the Dolphins concentrate on stopping Tom Brady.


Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins (20, 25): I think he's a must-start, my fellow rankers think he's more of a flex play. Again, see my Grossman rationalization. Banged-up defense, high-scoring game, lotta throwing (he's their best pass-catching running back and the best in pass protection, too) and, uh, you watched the preseason right?
Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos (33, 40): Do I think the Broncos will score against the Raiders? Yes. Do I think that, under John Fox, touchdowns are more likely to be on running plays than on passing plays? Yes. Do I think that, if they are running in for a score, that it will be McGahee instead of Knowshon Moreno? Yes. Sometimes, it's that simple.


Wes Welker, WR, Patriots (19, 17): We're all high on Welker for probably the same reason. All those underneath routes add up. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Welker leads all receivers in targets 14 yards or less downfield, and his 51 such targets against the Dolphins are the most he's had against any opponent.


Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys (11, 20): Think he's a stud, and you don't bench your studs. Plus, I don't have a lot of confidence in Dallas' defense (already a bit banged up), so I think this will be a higher-scoring game than folks think.


Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots (8, 13): See Predictions, Bold, New Engand Patriots, above.


Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams (13, 20): Philly gave up the second-most points to opposing tight ends last season and I'm not convinced its linebacking corp isn't significantly any better this season. The Rams targeted Kendricks a lot in the preseason and I expect that to continue Sunday.


Denver Broncos D/ST (14, 27): Von Miller is going to be a stud and, under John Fox, this is going to be a much better defense. And at home, season opener, Monday Night Football, I like the Broncos' chances to make some big plays.


Houston Texans D/ST (10, 18): Two numbers for you here: 195 and 24. The 195 is the number of career interceptions for Kerry Collins. 24 is the number of days Kerry Collins will have been with the Colts when he makes his first start for them.


Tennessee Titans D/ST (12, 22): But only because I've seen Luck McCown play.



Week 1 Players I Hate:

Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers (11, 7): I love Freeman like he's a relative. Or a blood donor. Or a former cast member of "Beverly Hills, 90210. " But this is not an offense built for explosiveness. Freeman's fantasy value comes from his consistency and running. And this week, against the Lions, I'm not convinced he's a starter in a 10-team league. Detroit allowed just over 11 points a game in the preseason and yes, it's the preseason and all that, but I believe in the Lions' defense, especially Suh, and in the Lions' line against the Bucs' offensive line. Freeman will be running a lot, which won't be a great thing in this game. He'll be fine, but nothing special.


Eli Manning, QB, Giants (16, 9): He looked terrible this preseason (no touchdowns, under 50 percent completions), and while the Redskins are not a good football team, they do have a decent secondary. Eli had just one touchdown total in two games against the Redskins last season as the Giants ran all over Washington, and I expect a similar game plan here.


Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos (21, 14): Truthfully, I'm probably a bit too down on Orton and might raise him a notch or two in my Friday update, but the Raiders (even without Nnamdi Asomugha) have a better defense than you think. Last year, with Josh McDaniels as his coach and Orton among the hottest QBs in fantasy, he had just under 200 yards, two scores and two turnovers (13 fantasy points). Now again, no Nnamdi, but also no McDaniels. Orton will do what he does. Until I see how Orton plays in the new offense, I'm not super comfortable starting him.


Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins (37, 30): When Reggie runs into Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth, how do you think that'll go? Exactly. And Belichick knows that, meaning he'll be ready to play the outsides.


Jahvid Best, RB, Lions (28, 19): The way you run on the Buccaneers is up the middle. Guess what Best does worst? I fully admit, this one could blow up in my face; he's got that boom-or-bust potential and I like Detroit's offense in this matchup, so beware. But until I see it consistently from him, I'm nervous making him anything more than a flex play in a non-bye week, while my fellow rankers have him as a must start.


Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (38, 30): Think the Panthers get down big in this game and he won't get enough touches before then to rack up points. I also plain don't like him. But again, that's only because I owned him last year.


Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (NR, 41): See Bush, Reggie and then add "all the while, Thomas is sitting on the bench."


Mario Manningham, WR, Giants (24, 14): See Manning, Eli.


Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars (35, 29): Everyone got the memo about Luke McCown starting, right?


Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers (45, 35): Not convinced he's 100 percent healthy, worried that Alex Smith is.


Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars (18, 8): In two games against the Titans last year, he had fewer than 40 yards receiving in each of them and a total of four fantasy points. Tennessee plays the tight end very well and I am not a fan of Luke McCown. I may have mentioned that before.


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons (20, 13): The Bears allowed just two touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season and Gonzo is now just the fourth-best option on that offense.


And there you have it, kids. Love/Hate for Week 1 is in the books. Be sure to check out Fantasy Football Now this Sunday on ESPN2 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Week 1 flex ranks: No worries about MJD
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Eric Karabell

Welcome to Thursday, the day we unveil each week's fantasy football flex rankings. Keep checkin' back each Thursday as I combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and -- hooray! -- tight ends into one cohesive list. We know you have tough decisions to make in your flex position -- for those of you have one -- and we're here to help. Although tight ends are not eligible for the flex spot in ESPN standard leagues, they are in ESPN custom leagues, and there was enough of an outcry that adding them makes sense.


In general, you'll find I favor running backs at the top of the flex rankings, but by the time we get to No. 100, a nearly equal number of wide receivers -- and perhaps as many as 10 tight ends -- will find their way in. And it changes each week. I don't try to get a certain number of any one fantasy position in here. It usually kind of happens on its own. <OFFER>Thanks for showing up, and let's have some fun this season. After this, we have 16 weeks to go!

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Still the best!
2. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: No concerns here, no matter the quarterback.
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: He usually starts out well and will again.
4. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Still questionable to play, but I think he will, and he'll play well.
5. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
7. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
8. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Don't worry about the hotshot rookie joining the offense.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Different quarterback, but don't overrate the "eight-man front" thing. He has seen that in the past, too.
10. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
11. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Huge game coming with his new quarterback. Huge!
12. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
13. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
14. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
15. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Matchup suggests big numbers could be coming, but I also think he'll share some carries.
16. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
17. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: We might be worried about his production in December, but not September, right? That's my stance.
18. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers: Good to have him back for a September game.
19. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
20. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos: Overrated a few months ago, but not anymore with Kyle Orton slingin' it.
21. Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: This is Eli's year.
22. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
23. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
24. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Honestly, even if Peyton Manning were the quarterback, Wayne wouldn't be much higher in these ranks. He'll be fine with Kerry Collins in the short term. And these flex ranks, they're about Week 1.
25. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers
26. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
27. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Still sharing touches even in Week 1.
28. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
29. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: It remains to be seen how Philly plays the run.
30. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs
31. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: Like Hillis, it's not the first month I worry about regarding Gates.
32. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
33. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Not such a bad matchup for him at all.
34. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
35. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Probably getting a bit overrated off his preseason. I still see the 3.4 yards per rush from last year.
36. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: One would assume the motivation is there.
37. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: My pick not to be ranked this low next week.
38. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Also could really change opinions with a big first weekend.
39. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
40. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
41. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
42. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: Not sure the change in quarterbacks helps much, but he's so talented.
43. Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins: Not a great week to expect good numbers, but I sure wouldn't count on him after Thanksgiving.
44. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
45. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
46. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: The "touchdown guy" until Bill Belichick changes his mind. No reason to think he will.
47. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
48. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals: Free at last! Enjoy 24 carries for 88 yards, perhaps a score. Hey, that's not nothing.
49. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
50. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Do you think it matters to him which quarterback starts?
51. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: I think this guy would like a quarterback upgrade, though. Hmm, I hear David Garrard is out there.
52. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
53. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Not the best matchup for this Cowboys trio.
54. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
55. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
56. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
57. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: Had bigger concerns in August. I wouldn't expect a ton in September.
58. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: I'm very interested to see how many rushing attempts he gets.
59. Dallas Clark, TE, Colts
60. Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers
61. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots: His preseason numbers couldn't mean less. Honestly, the Patriots just don't care.
62. Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
63. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: He's still talented but living off his name a bit.
64. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
65. Robert Meachem, WR, Saints: I bumped him up a bit with the news that Lance Moore is out for Week 1. Devery Henderson will step in.
66. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
67. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: Reunited with Tarvaris, and it feels so … well, we shall see.
68. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Everyone's asking which Packers running back to play. The best advice: Neither.
69. Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars: You know, Luke McCown will throw the ball deep, too.
70. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
71. Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts
72. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets: It sure is weird seeing him in that uniform.
73. Johnny Knox, WR, Bears
74. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
75. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Never. Trust. Rookies.
76. James Starks, RB, Packers
77. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: See Ingram, Mark.
78. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
79. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
80. Austin Collie, WR, Colts: Still not a lock that he'll suit up, so check back Sunday morning.
81. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: All indications are Bush gets most of the touches.
82. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
83. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
84. Kellen Winslow, TE, Buccaneers
85. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders
86. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets
87. Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Might be a tad premature, though.
88. Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks: If Sidney Rice doesn't play, Williams moves up these ranks.
89. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
90. Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers
91. Roy Williams, WR, Bears: One of the more overrated fellows in fantasy, it seems.
92. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
93. Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots
94. Lee Evans, WR, Ravens
95. Thomas Jones, RB, Chiefs
96. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans
97. Greg Little, WR, Browns: Kind of a sleeper of mine for this week because I do think Colt McCoy has game.
98. Jerome Harrison, RB, Lions
99. Derrick Ward, RB, Texans: Look, you all love the other guy, but the depth chart still has Ward second. Could that be misleading? Of course. If Foster plays, none of it matters. If Foster does not play, I'd move Ward into the 70s and Ben Tate into the 80s.
100. Delone Carter, RB, Colts: Fun guy to watch.
Best of the rest: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers; Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams; Deion Branch, WR, Patriots; Ben Tate, RB, Texans; Deji Karim, RB, Jaguars.

Good luck in Week 1 and beyond!
 

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Week 1 flex ranks: No worries about MJD
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Eric Karabell

Welcome to Thursday, the day we unveil each week's fantasy football flex rankings. Keep checkin' back each Thursday as I combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and -- hooray! -- tight ends into one cohesive list. We know you have tough decisions to make in your flex position -- for those of you have one -- and we're here to help. Although tight ends are not eligible for the flex spot in ESPN standard leagues, they are in ESPN custom leagues, and there was enough of an outcry that adding them makes sense.


In general, you'll find I favor running backs at the top of the flex rankings, but by the time we get to No. 100, a nearly equal number of wide receivers -- and perhaps as many as 10 tight ends -- will find their way in. And it changes each week. I don't try to get a certain number of any one fantasy position in here. It usually kind of happens on its own. <OFFER>Thanks for showing up, and let's have some fun this season. After this, we have 16 weeks to go!

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Still the best!
2. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: No concerns here, no matter the quarterback.
3. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: He usually starts out well and will again.
4. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Still questionable to play, but I think he will, and he'll play well.
5. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
7. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
8. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Don't worry about the hotshot rookie joining the offense.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Different quarterback, but don't overrate the "eight-man front" thing. He has seen that in the past, too.
10. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
11. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Huge game coming with his new quarterback. Huge!
12. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
13. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants
14. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
15. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Matchup suggests big numbers could be coming, but I also think he'll share some carries.
16. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
17. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: We might be worried about his production in December, but not September, right? That's my stance.
18. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers: Good to have him back for a September game.
19. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
20. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos: Overrated a few months ago, but not anymore with Kyle Orton slingin' it.
21. Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: This is Eli's year.
22. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
23. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
24. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Honestly, even if Peyton Manning were the quarterback, Wayne wouldn't be much higher in these ranks. He'll be fine with Kerry Collins in the short term. And these flex ranks, they're about Week 1.
25. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers
26. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
27. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Still sharing touches even in Week 1.
28. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
29. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: It remains to be seen how Philly plays the run.
30. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs
31. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: Like Hillis, it's not the first month I worry about regarding Gates.
32. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
33. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Not such a bad matchup for him at all.
34. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
35. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Probably getting a bit overrated off his preseason. I still see the 3.4 yards per rush from last year.
36. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: One would assume the motivation is there.
37. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: My pick not to be ranked this low next week.
38. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Also could really change opinions with a big first weekend.
39. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
40. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
41. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
42. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: Not sure the change in quarterbacks helps much, but he's so talented.
43. Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins: Not a great week to expect good numbers, but I sure wouldn't count on him after Thanksgiving.
44. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
45. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
46. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: The "touchdown guy" until Bill Belichick changes his mind. No reason to think he will.
47. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
48. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals: Free at last! Enjoy 24 carries for 88 yards, perhaps a score. Hey, that's not nothing.
49. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
50. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Do you think it matters to him which quarterback starts?
51. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: I think this guy would like a quarterback upgrade, though. Hmm, I hear David Garrard is out there.
52. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
53. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Not the best matchup for this Cowboys trio.
54. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
55. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
56. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
57. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: Had bigger concerns in August. I wouldn't expect a ton in September.
58. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: I'm very interested to see how many rushing attempts he gets.
59. Dallas Clark, TE, Colts
60. Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers
61. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots: His preseason numbers couldn't mean less. Honestly, the Patriots just don't care.
62. Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
63. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: He's still talented but living off his name a bit.
64. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
65. Robert Meachem, WR, Saints: I bumped him up a bit with the news that Lance Moore is out for Week 1. Devery Henderson will step in.
66. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
67. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: Reunited with Tarvaris, and it feels so … well, we shall see.
68. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Everyone's asking which Packers running back to play. The best advice: Neither.
69. Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars: You know, Luke McCown will throw the ball deep, too.
70. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
71. Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts
72. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets: It sure is weird seeing him in that uniform.
73. Johnny Knox, WR, Bears
74. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
75. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Never. Trust. Rookies.
76. James Starks, RB, Packers
77. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: See Ingram, Mark.
78. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
79. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
80. Austin Collie, WR, Colts: Still not a lock that he'll suit up, so check back Sunday morning.
81. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: All indications are Bush gets most of the touches.
82. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
83. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
84. Kellen Winslow, TE, Buccaneers
85. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders
86. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets
87. Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Might be a tad premature, though.
88. Mike Williams, WR, Seahawks: If Sidney Rice doesn't play, Williams moves up these ranks.
89. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
90. Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers
91. Roy Williams, WR, Bears: One of the more overrated fellows in fantasy, it seems.
92. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
93. Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots
94. Lee Evans, WR, Ravens
95. Thomas Jones, RB, Chiefs
96. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans
97. Greg Little, WR, Browns: Kind of a sleeper of mine for this week because I do think Colt McCoy has game.
98. Jerome Harrison, RB, Lions
99. Derrick Ward, RB, Texans: Look, you all love the other guy, but the depth chart still has Ward second. Could that be misleading? Of course. If Foster plays, none of it matters. If Foster does not play, I'd move Ward into the 70s and Ben Tate into the 80s.
100. Delone Carter, RB, Colts: Fun guy to watch.
Best of the rest: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers; Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams; Deion Branch, WR, Patriots; Ben Tate, RB, Texans; Deji Karim, RB, Jaguars.

Good luck in Week 1 and beyond!
 

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The Hard Count: Saints-Packers

Keep close eye on both running back situations, status of Robert Meachem


By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Welcome to The Hard Count, my new column dedicated to finding the most interesting pressure-point players for the upcoming weekend. For those folks who remember The Breakdown (the column I wrote for ESPN.com for each of the past four seasons), the formula should be familiar: I'll use film study and stats to find value and discuss matchups. But rather than tackle every single NFL game (which my schedule found to be all-consuming), here I'll examine ESPN.com's weekly rankings, and find players where I deviate from the pack, so I can explain why. Or, at the very least, I can help explain why all the rankers have taken a perhaps unexpected stance on a player.


I hope you'll enjoy. Let's get to Thursday night's game between the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers:

1. Saints RB flip-flop. Oops, I have may have been too convincing in my passionate summer proselytizing about Pierre Thomas. Overall, the rankers have Thomas 34th and Ingram 35th, while I have Ingram 26th and Thomas 36th. I'm the only ranker with Ingram higher, despite the fact that I planted my flag on Thomas almost a month ago. Has something changed? Not really. Even back then, I believed Ingram was the slightly better fantasy option, but that Thomas was undervalued considering I expected more of a time-share than most pundits did back then. It hasn't even been a month, but it's amazing how the fantasy cognoscenti has come full circle, acknowledging that a Sean Payton offense hasn't produced a single back with more than 230 touches from scrimmage, and none with more than 186 since 2007.


Still, as much as I maintained that Frenchy represented strong fantasy value considering where you could draft him (Ingram's average draft position is 69.2; Thomas' ADP is 93.7), I also recognized that he doesn't have every-down upside. To date, Thomas has shown no ability to hold up to every-down pounding, while in the preseason Ingram -- who admittedly is basically the same size as Frenchy -- looked like more of an inside runner who can thrive in the power game. I absolutely still think Thomas could produce 10 total TDs this year, because that's what he averaged in '08 and '09. But if you're asking me to place money on one of these guys leading the Saints in scores, I'm still going with Ingram. The Packers' D represented a not-terrible matchup for opposing rushers last year, so I imagine you'll see a healthy dose of Ingram, Thomas and Darren Sproles. But Ingram is my favorite to steal a short score.

2. Packers RB mishmash. There's startling agreement among our rankers about Green Bay's running game. We all have Ryan Grant slightly above James Starks, and we all consider the whole situation quite yucky. I guess this could be a case where we get a whole bunch of answers right away. It's not like the Packers have had incentive to be truthful about what they really think of Grant now that he's a year removed from ankle surgery, or whether they really think Starks has a size/speed combo that could one day place him among the NFL's elite. But my guess is that not much information about this time-share will get resolved, and for me the truly interesting factor here is the Saints' defensive line.


It could be really, really good. Granted, Will Smith will (finally) be serving his two-game StarCaps suspension, so the Saints' best pass-rusher will be on the sideline. But what I'm most interested to see is whether any offensive line in the league can push around a defensive tackle rotation that includes Sedrick Ellis, Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. Add ball-hawking middleman Jonathan Vilma, and it could be a long night for Grant and Starks. In fact, once Smith returns, it won't be a shock to see this Saints D become one of the three or four best in fantasy. Between a strong front four and a secondary that might lack superstar appeal but has great depth, plus with a defensive coordinator that puts as many blitzers into play as anyone, turnovers will be plentiful once more, a season after the Saints somehow intercepted only nine passes (lowest in the NFL).

3. Robert Meachem. OK, Bobby, time to shine. I ranked Meachem 28th among wideouts this week, while nobody else put him above 36th. In fact, without my ranking of Meachem, he'd have wound up 45th among receivers. Part of my high assessment for him this week is the fact that Lance Moore is missing the game with a groin injury. That's one fewer mouth to feed. Of course, the Packers' pass rush is impressive, and their top three corners -- Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson and Sam Shields -- are especially impressive (and are possibly a reason to be circumspect).


But I'm choosing to believe we can basically scrap Meachem's 2010 season. After the season, he finally had the ankle surgery he'd needed for a full calendar year, and he has impressed teammates and beat reporters with the return of elite foot speed that made him a first-round NFL draft pick. Yes, Devery Henderson is still on hand, and for as long as his knees hold up, Marques Colston will come first among wideouts in the red zone. Plus, there are so many weapons in New Orleans that it's tough to see anyone from this offense but Drew Brees breaking into the fantasy elite. But if anyone here has the ability to break out of the role we've all ascribed for him, it's Meachem. I think we'll see Colston get a healthy dose of Tramon Williams, the Packers' best cover man. Meachem should see Woodson some, maybe Shields some. Brees needs to get time free from Clay Matthews, no easy task. But if he does, I view Meachem as his best chance for a big play. Hey, I'm not telling you to bench Larry Fitzgerald for the guy. But this is a player who scored nine times a couple of years ago. If his ankle is right and he can return to that kind of form, we're looking at a great value play.
 

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Can Collins keep Colts options relevant?
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Eric Karabell

Well, this latest news on Peyton Manning is pretty disheartening. I mean, if we can't count on this guy, who can we count on? Over the past week or two, it became clear that selecting Manning in the first three or four rounds of a fantasy draft would be a bit risky, knowing he not only could miss a game or two (or three), but his always stellar performance could be affected when he returned.


Now, however, it's tough to make a case to draft the guy at all. Sad, indeed. I could point out all the relevant statistics for the suffering Indianapolis Colts quarterback. He's been the best -- not every year, but for the duration -- for more than a decade. Even last season, at 34 years old, he was fantasy's No. 4 quarterback, setting a personal mark with 4,700 passing yards, and his 33 touchdown passes tied for second-most in his career. Perhaps his statistics were buoyed more by volume -- he set career highs in completions and attempts -- but still, if there were signs of decline, they were slight. And he had never missed a game.


I'm not a doctor and I can't pretend to predict the future accurately, but Manning's latest neck surgery could sideline him for the entire season. The news continues to change as I write this, but optimism is fleeting. On Wednesday, I still felt confident this fantasy Superman would come back to us in early October, replace Kerry Collins, save Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and pals and be worth the fourth- or fifth-round investment fantasy owners had been spending on him. Late last week my initial end-of-season rankings were published, and Manning was easily a top-10 quarterback. Now the news has changed. He's out of my top 10. Out of the top 20, too. Time to move on and hope for the best in 2012.
My advice if you have already drafted Manning is to keep him owned on your bench, until the Colts officially place Manning on season-ending injured reserve. It could happen today, tomorrow, in mid-October or not at all. We don't know. But even if Manning can play only the December schedule, there is value in that, especially if you selected him and your backup doesn't excite you much. Keep him around until we know it's over.
If you haven't drafted yet, ignore Manning unless it's far later in your draft and you've secured at least one starter-worthy option. I'm serious. Take Michael Vick in Round 2, a backup such as Kevin Kolb in the 12th round and, if you feel good about your running backs and wide receivers depth-wise, take a shot on Manning in the 15th round. It can't hurt. But other than that, move on.
I tried to make the comparison on television the other day that Collins could be this year's version of Matt Cassel, referring to when Tom Brady blew up his knee in the 2008 opener, but I don't really believe that. Nobody knew who Cassel was. The guy hadn't played regularly since high school. And then he played really well for the Patriots and fantasy owners, and what shouldn't be forgotten is Cassel kept the other weapons statistically relevant. Can Collins do this? I think that can happen to some degree, and I realize I'm going against conventional wisdom. Collins is no star, but consider the talent around him. A season ago and at age 38, Collins didn't win much for the Tennessee Titans, but in the final four games of the season, he did produce nine touchdown passes, tied with Manning and a few others for the most in the league. Collins wasn't as bad as you might think, and while his weapons were different -- there's no Chris Johnson in Indy -- the cupboard isn't exactly bare. Wayne and Dallas Clark and even a healthy Joseph Addai are good players.


I ranked Collins 17th at quarterback for this week, banking on the old corollary that the veteran Colts will pick up their quarterback and play better. Nothing changes there. Plus, while the opposing Houston Texans did upgrade defensively, no team permitted more passing touchdowns a year ago. Collins isn't the worst option this week. But over the course of a full season, he wouldn't be in my top 20 at the position. Plus, the Colts might try to develop a younger option, especially if they're not a .500 team by November. Personally, I think the Colts can still make the playoffs even without Manning. Collins was 2-11 as the Titans' starter the past two seasons but 12-3 in 2008. He's the same guy.
Wayne was already out of my top 10 wide receivers, but now he goes from 11th to the 16-18 range. I'd take Dallas Cowboys Dez Bryant and Miles Austin first, Tampa Bay Buccaneers stud Mike Williams and I'd certainly think hard about Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson, Mario Manningham (stud!) and Santonio Holmes. But Wayne remains a fantasy starter. I think Pierre Garcon was a bit overrated in the first place, and while Collins can get the ball deep, I feel better about his short game and finding Collie. Still, neither Garcon nor Collie will likely be in my top 30 next week. Clark moves from third to fifth at tight end, again, not a huge drop. If you've got him, keep him and start him. And Addai was always a flex option, at best. The Titans ran just fine with Collins at the helm, but with an elite running back. The change in quarterbacks doesn't help Addai, but I'm inclined to leave him in the 32-35 range. Frankly, I can't wait to see what rookie Delone Carter does this week! If this is truly it for the great Peyton Manning for 2011, we thank him for all the good times and look to 2012. But I think some good times are still ahead for the Colts this season.
 

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Just realized you get the insider and post it. Thanks for that and all the other good fantasy stuff you put up .
 

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Matchups: Juicy One for Jamaal

The objective of this column is to appeal to readers willing to consider, more deeply, those factors that may or may not cause fantasy players to have favorable or unfavorable matchups. This article is not for the casual fantasy leaguer. It's for the owner looking to gain an extra edge.

24-plus hours per week go into formulation of the Matchups breakdown. I place an emphasis on statistics, re-watching of games, tendencies, injuries, and roster turnover, and will often refer to the analysis-based website Profootballfocus.com, which presents in-depth charting data for each player in the league, offensive and defensive.

This is the Matchups column's third year, and it received consistently positive reviews in the first two seasons. My goal is to continue to make it better and more accurate each year. For questions, arguments, and suggestions, contact me on my Twitter account, @evansilva.

1:00PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore


Ravens OC Cam Cameron announced in camp that Ray Rice will be his goal-line back this year, and that's going to make Rice difficult to bench even in tough matchups like this. Rice will touch the ball 20 times and probably gain between 70 and 90 total yards Sunday. With Willis McGahee vulturing all short-yardage scores last year, I recommended to sit Rice twice against the Steelers. Admittedly hampered by a season-long knee injury, Rice didn't top 50 yards or find the end zone in either game. Owners need to start Rice this week. His scoring potential has increased sizably, Rice's explosiveness has returned (preseason 4.92 YPC) along with his health, and the Ravens' run blocking is much better off with Michael Oher at right tackle and Marshal Yanda at right guard.

You wouldn't have known it from last year's second-half slump, but Anquan Boldin has plenty left in the tank. The Ravens' lack of a complementary outside threat allowed defenses to double team Boldin on virtually every snap down the stretch, particularly when Boldin was lined up in the slot. Lee Evans' addition will be a difference maker for Boldin. Keep in mind that two of Boldin's biggest games (7-68, 5-118-1) came against Pittsburgh in last year’s regular season. ... Whereas Boldin shouldn't have trouble continuing to burn slot CB William Gay and LCB Bryant McFadden, Evans will match up with physical Steelers RCB Ike Taylor. Evans might hit a big play downfield, but he's a risky WR3 in this matchup. ... The Ravens don't have a third receiver, so sure-handed TE Dennis Pitta will man the slot when Boldin and Evans line up in two wide-sets. It's good news for Joe Flacco that the Ravens have depth and versatility at tight end. Pitta isn't a fantasy option, but helps Flacco qualify as a low-end QB1 this week. The Steelers' pass defense is unimposing with OLB James Harrison running on fumes after two back surgeries.

Steelers OC Bruce Arians has spoken openly of his desire to air it out this year, and he's got weapons to spread the field following Antonio Brown's August explosion and Emmanuel Sanders' quick return from foot surgeries. Neither Brown nor Sanders has earned enough snaps in the base offense to be fantasy viable yet, but these are promising developments for Ben Roethlisberger. In last year's playoffs, Roethlisberger completed 19-of-32 passes (59.4%) for 226 yards, two TDs, and no interceptions against Baltimore. The Ravens stifle the run and are breaking in two new starting corners (Cary Williams, rookie Jimmy Smith). The best way to attack them is through the air. Expect Big Ben to approach 35 attempts as a rock-solid QB1. He's a better start than Flacco.

Mike Wallace is coming off a quiet preseason (3 catches, 19 yards), but he's a must-play against a Baltimore secondary starting as many as three new defensive backs. (SS Tom Zbikowski has been pushed by Bernard Pollard, who's a disaster in coverage.) Wallace finished as the No. 5 fantasy receiver in 2010, just his second NFL season. He'll be fine. ... Heath Miller will remain a sixth lineman this year, blocking his tail off and rarely running pass routes. He's barely on the TE2 radar. ... Rashard Mendenhall is impossible to bench because he's always such a good bet to score, but yardage expectations should be limited this week. In his three Ravens matchups last year, including playoffs, Mendenhall averaged 70 total yards. At the same time, he dropped four TDs on Baltimore and averaged 24 touches a game. ... Hines Ward offers little upside as a WR3, but he's still a better bet for receptions and targets than Brown and Sanders. You could do worse.

Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Atlanta @ Chicago


Marion Barber's rejuvenated preseason (4.6 YPC) was worrisome for Matt Forte owners hoping their second-round pick would get goal-line carries in Chicago. Barber is expected to miss Week 1 with a calf injury, setting up Forte for a heavier workload. He'll play more snaps on third down, and get the carries in scoring position. Squaring off with an undersized Atlanta front four, Forte is a strong RB1 play and a solid bet for a touchdown. ... Whereas the Falcons project to get pushed around against the run, they'll be awfully difficult to throw against. RE John Abraham and LE Ray Edwards are double-digit sack threats on the edges, and both DTs (Peria Jerry, Jonathan Babineaux) can collapse the pocket on the interior. This will give a Bears offensive line that can't pass protect fits. Jay Cutler and most Chicago pass catchers should be on fantasy benches. LCB Brent Grimes and RCB Dunta Robinson quietly form one of the NFL's better cover duos outside.

The Bears' wideout with the best Week 1 matchup is Earl Bennett. Bennett is a situational, No. 3 receiver, but his primary opponent in coverage will be burnable Atlanta nickel back Chris Owens. Whereas Pro Football Focus rated both Grimes and Robinson as top-22 cover corners last season, Owens would've ranked in the 90s had he played enough snaps to qualify. A crisp route runner, Bennett will get open against him. ... Roy Williams and Devin Hester would be fourth and fifth receivers on a team that didn't base its lineup on favorites and contracts. Consider Bears wideouts non-factors until Johnny Knox overtakes Williams. Williams is the starter for now.

Chicago will continue to field one of the better defenses in football, at least until one of their aging stars gets hurt. The Bears stayed unsustainably healthy last year. 29 1/2 years old to open the season, Michael Turner is worth an RB2 start based strictly on the fact that he gets goal-line work for an offense that will move the chains. Clearly losing a step after offseason groin surgery and an NFL-leading carry total in two of the past three seasons, Turner is averaging a paltry 3.52 YPC on his last 139 rushing attempts, including playoffs and preseason. Of course, he's got seven TDs over that span. Just be aware that you'll take a gut-punch in your fantasy matchup if Turner doesn't find the end zone. He offers little yardage upside barring a monster workload and doesn't catch passes. Turner was someone to avoid in fantasy drafts outside of touchdown-heavy leagues.

Roddy White has 13 catches for 168 yards and two touchdowns in his past two meetings with the Bears. ... We covered Julio Jones' impressive preseason extensively in August. Jones and White have played on both sides of the formation, so they'll likely square off evenly with RCB Charles Tillman and LCB Tim Jennings. From a matchup perspective, the 5-foot-8, 185-pound Jennings is the Bears' corner to target. Jones has seven inches and 35 pounds on him. He's a recommended WR3. ... With Turner running out of gas and Chicago returning a top-2 run defense, the Falcons may have to throw to move the sticks in this one. Matt Ryan attempted a whopping 42 first-half passes in Atlanta's third preseason game, further confirming the team's plan to throw the ball more this season. Ryan won't have 80 attempts a game in the regular season, but he could easily approach 40 against Chicago. Start 'em. ... Declining at age 35, Tony Gonzalez is a TE2. Slot receiver Harry Douglas is a WR4, but will be a fantasy starter if Jones or White goes down.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Bears 14

Cincinnati @ Cleveland


Bengals-Browns has Vegas' lowest Week 1 over-under at 35.5 points. You'll want to avoid this game where possible. The lone solid start on Cleveland's side is Peyton Hillis. Poised for a monster workload to open the season, Hillis will dominate early-down carries ahead of Montario Hardesty, and take on increased passing-down snaps following Brandon Jackson's year-ending toe injury. It's still fair to be concerned with Hillis' ability to sustain effectiveness and health on so many carries with a contact-inviting run style. On the bright side, it doesn't hurt that the Bengals' defense looks less stout following run-stuffing WLB Keith Rivers' (elbow) placement on PUP and undersized DT Geno Atkins' rise to the starting lineup.

Colt McCoy finished preseason 28-of-46 (60.9%) for 320 yards (7.0 YPA), four touchdowns, and one pick. The completion rate and perhaps the yards-per-attempt can carry over into real games, but the TD ratio won't. As much as McCoy's stock has risen since camp opened, he's just a QB2. The Bengals' pass defense will at least be league average with a formidable pass rush (Carlos Dunlap, Atkins, Michael Johnson) and solid corner play (Leon Hall, Nate Clements). ... Mohamed Massaquoi is listed as the Browns' flanker, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a five-way rotation of Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Greg Little, slot man Jordan Norwood, and Joshua Cribbs. Avoid Cleveland wideouts until some semblance of playing time is established. ... Evan Moore is the Browns' tight end to own, but he and Ben Watson could just as easily cancel each other out. It's a week to wait on Cleveland pass catchers, see how they're used, and perhaps start one in Week 2.

I mentioned that this game projects as the lowest scoring of Week 1. Like on Cleveland's side, there is only one surefire fantasy starter for Cincinnati. Cedric Benson, fresh out of jail, will be the centerpiece of the Bengals' offense and is in line for upwards of 25 carries. Throughout the preseason new OC Jay Gruden emphasized power-I formations -- prehistoric football. It's a power-running team that won't even attempt to spread out defenses. Benson's recent yards-per-carry averages indicate he's lost a step, and the loss of mauling RG Bobbie Williams to a four-game suspension certainly won't help. That said, the workload supports Benson as an RB2, and he has a good matchup against a Cleveland defense breaking in three first-time starters in the front four.

Perhaps a basic offense is the right approach with the Bengals' bevy of first-year starters, rookie QB, and scheme change. We'll take it, because it makes matchups easy to predict. A.J. Green is the Z receiver on virtually all snaps, lining up on the offensive right side. He'll meet most often with LCB Joe Haden. "He lines up to my side a lot, so it should be like the good old days," confirmed Haden this week. Haden, who flashed shutdown potential as a rookie, held Green to a scoreless 50 yards on three catches the last time they met. (Georgia-Florida watchers know A.J. struggled to get open in that game.) Green will make some big plays this year, but he's a dicey WR3. ... One preseason observation that surprised me was Jermaine Gresham's usage as strictly an old-school, in-line tight end. He mostly blocks and never lines up in the slot or out wide. ... X wideout Jerome Simpson is the third or fourth (also Jordan Shipley) option in a putrid passing attack. Move along.

Score Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 7

Indianapolis @ Houston


"I can't imagine trying to learn something as complicated as this (offense) in a short period of time," were C Jeff Saturday's comments this week when asked about Kerry Collins' readiness for the opener. Peyton Manning (neck) is out indefinitely, and Indy's offensive philosophy will shift dramatically. Top-five in pass attempts for each of the past three years, the Colts will strive for balance on offense, evidenced by this week's addition of lead blocker Chris Gronkowski (the Colts never used fullbacks before), and keeping four tailbacks on the 53-man roster. It's a bad situation all around. The Colts were built to throw first, second, and third, and run the ball as a change of pace. Joseph Addai's strengths are blitz pickup and receiving, and the line won't open holes. Even if this were a favorable matchup -- it isn't -- Addai would be a low-end RB2. ... Look for Delone Carter in change-up situations, getting 8-10 carries. He needs to be effective on limited early-season opportunities to earn a bigger role. My guess is Addai is still the favorite for goal-line work.

This would be a favorable passing-game matchup if it were still last year. Unfortunately for Colts skill players, it isn't. You didn't draft Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in the early rounds to sit them in Week 1, but Wayne is much more WR3 than WR1, and Clark drops to the 8-12 range among tight ends. Yes, it's that bad. The Colts won't throw nearly as much, and when they do, execution will dip significantly. ... The Texans' defense is a highly recommended play. Chris Wesseling ranked them in the top six for Week 1 starts, and I agree. ... In his lone preseason appearance, Collins went 5-of-10 for 45 yards, took a sack, and lost a fumble. He's not ready to play in this offense. The Colts didn't even let him work with the first-team skill players. ... With the focus now on running the ball, one of the Colts' pass catchers is going to get weeded out of the offense in favor of a blocker, probably TE Brody Eldridge. My early guess is slot receiver Austin Collie (Indy can't go four wide anymore), but it could just as easily be flanker Pierre Garcon. Avoid them both.

Anything can happen in any week, but this game is a mismatch on paper. Wayne, Clark, and Collie will look much more pedestrian in a Manning-less offense; remember, even Jacob Tamme and Blair White produced at similar levels to Clark and Collie last year. Houston should dominate time of possession, leaning on the run game while remaining aggressive with the vertical pass. I could cite a bunch of stats explaining why Arian Foster (hamstring) would be a good fantasy play, but this has quickly become a situation to avoid based on late-week reports from the Houston Chronicle and Adam Schefter. Check back with Rotoworld on Sunday morning. Should Foster miss the game, Ben Tate will be a must-start RB2 in fantasy leagues. ... Owen Daniels has regained health and TE1 status. He racked up six catches for 57 yards and a touchdown in the third preseason game.

The Colts' top three corners are Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey, and Justin Tryon. Lacey is the biggest of the group at 5-foot-10 and 177 pounds. It is hard to imagine these fellas stopping Andre Johnson (6'3/226). Only Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha can do that. ... The Texans have the top run-blocking offensive line in football, and the Colts one of the worst run defenses. With Johnson and Daniels hogging what figure to be limited targets in the passing game, Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are hardly worth fantasy roster spots, let alone Week 1 starts. ... The Texans are transitioning to a run-oriented offense under old line coach Rick Dennison. The team's pass attempts ranking fell dramatically last season despite having to play from behind so frequently due to a terrible defense. It will continue its freefall this year with the defense likely to improve exponentially under Wade Phillips. Matt Schaub is not a top-10 QB.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 10
<!--RW-->Tennessee @ Jacksonville


Some Chris Johnson owners are concerned about his Week 1 workload. I'm not. Javon Ringer's preseason hip injury has led to back "tightness," and he's questionable to be active against the Jags. The Titans have discussed adding Herb Donaldson from the practice squad to compensate, indicating legitimate concern with Ringer's health. Next on the depth chart is Jamie Harper, who performed admirably in August but is a fourth-round rookie and unlikely to receive more than 8-10 touches in his NFL debut. Once Johnson gets rolling on the first drive, the Titans' staff will have to leave him in. 24-25 carries and 5-6 catches wouldn't be surprising. The Jags finished 22nd in run defense last season and allowed the second most yards per carry. ... Jared Cook isn't a full-time player just yet, but his usage with the first-team offense increased on a weekly basis in exhibition games, and he led Tennessee in preseason targets and receptions. Cook plays in the slot and out wide, ala Jermichael Finley with similar athleticism. Fantasy owners are understandably hesitant to use Cook out of the chute, but he'll be a top-ten tight end scorer when all is said and done.

Let me know when the Jaguars are going to take their pass rush seriously. They have finished the regular season 32nd and 30th in sacks over the past two seasons, and again brought up the NFL rear with two sacks in the 2011 preseason. Matt Hasselbeck will have a clean pocket on Sunday, which should translate to plenty of deep-ball fun for Kenny Britt. Britt certainly won't face a worse secondary all year. ... Nate Washington has more of a "rapport" with Hasselbeck because of his healthy August (Britt was nagged by a hamstring pull), but it's hard to imagine using him as a WR3 in Week 1. He's the No. 4 option behind Johnson, Britt, and Cook in a balanced offense.

New starting quarterback Luke McCown has attempted 20 regular season passes as a Jaguar, so it's a pretty small sample size. Here's McCown's target distribution anyway: Marcedes Lewis (5), Mike Sims-Walker (5), Rashad Jennings (3), Mike Thomas (2), Kassim Osgood (2), Others (the remaining 3). Lewis is easily the safest bet for catches and pass targets in the Jacksonville pass-catching corps. ... The scouting report on McCown is that he's a shaky if aggressive passer, and that shows up in his 7.85 YPA over the last two preseasons. It's good news on paper for Mike Thomas, who will play outside more after focusing on the slot in his first two years. He'll run more deep routes, though I’m a bit skeptical that the new role suits Thomas’ skills. We saw Percy Harvin flunk the test when the Vikings tried something similar with him early last year. ... Jason Hill is Jacksonville's split end, but McCown hasn't completed a pass to him in his life outside of the practice field. Lock in Lewis, consider Thomas as a WR3, and pass on Hill.

It's no secret by now that Maurice Jones-Drew underwent offseason surgery in an attempt to fix a "bone-on-bone" condition in his right knee. MJD's lone preseason appearance (one 14-yard run with a huge hole, 0-yard net on his other four carries) wasn’t enough for a viable evaluation, so I'll withhold judgment until seeing Jones-Drew in a real game. You're not going to sit him in the opener, but should be concerned about what's left of his explosiveness, the offense, and possibility of re-injury. The good news is Jones-Drew will receive a huge workload with Rashad Jennings out for the year. He's also facing a banged-up Titans front four with heavy transition in terms of both system and personnel. ... With Jennings on I.R., Deji Karim is MJD's backup. He's an extremely raw talent, but 4.6 YPC on his last 53 rushing attempts in regular and preseason suggests Karim can be an explosive playmaker. He's worth stashing in all leagues behind an injury-risk starter.

Score Prediction: Titans 21, Jaguars 14

Buffalo @ Kansas City


There is one elite fantasy start in this game, and he was my No. 1-ranked player for 2011 drafts. Jamaal Charles finished the 2010 season as the No. 4 overall fantasy back despite 230 rushing attempts (14th in the league) and five rushing scores (25th in the league), and he didn't even lead his own team in carries. My bets are on Charles' talent, the Chiefs' mauling offensive line (I love new RG Jon Asamoah), AFC West run defenses, and an offense that will have to lean heavily on the ground game to move the sticks. My bet is squarely against a totally ineffective and 33-year-old Jones. The carries will be there for Charles because they will have to be. Charles has faced the Bills three times in his career, and ripped off 162 total yards per game, two touchdowns, and a 7.77 yards per carry average. And he only received two carries in one of those games.

The K.C. pass game is headed for regression this year, especially with the departure of offensive mastermind Charlie Weis, who coaxed career years out of Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn at Notre Dame before doing the same with Matt Cassel last season. Dwayne Bowe has found the end zone in both of his two career matchups with Buffalo, but the rest of the Chiefs' pass catchers can safely be avoided. Typically, teams game plan to attack the Bills with the run, which is in large part why Buffalo annually finishes high in the league's pass defense rankings. Expect a ton of Charles, some Jones, and 7-10 targets for Bowe. Steve Breaston is a waste of a roster spot this week and going forward. Drop him for a wide receiver or running back with more potential.

I believe in the Chan Gailey system, but points will be hard to come by in Buffalo this season. There isn't a less talented O-Line in football, the starting tailback is 30 1/2 years old, and there's no No. 2 receiver to speak of. At least Lee Evans commanded defensive attention on clearing routes. In the backfield, the Bills are toying with the idea of using an even timeshare in terms of overall touches. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both poor bets to get the ball more than 12-15 times, and they won't have running lanes. The Chiefs already weren't slouches against the run, and have an upgrade at nose tackle in the form of ex-Baltimore space eater Kelly Gregg. You should feel confident avoiding Jackson and Spiller as more than desperation flex plays for most of the year.

Steve Johnson has a tough matchup with shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers, but Gailey will move Johnson around enough to see snaps against the Chiefs' sub-package corners. There simply isn't another Bills receiver to command targets. In my estimation, Johnson was a bit undervalued in 2011 drafts. He'll see double teams, sure, but Gailey is smart enough to get Johnson in motion when possible. An excellent short-to-intermediate route runner, Johnson remains the ideal fit for Ryan Fitzpatrick's weak arm. Johnson is a WR2 against the Chiefs. ... Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish are expected to open the year as Buffalo's No. 2 and 3 receivers. My money is still on David Nelson emerging as the second most targeted Bill by season's end. Nelson acquitted himself well with 31 catches for 353 yards and three touchdowns as an undrafted rookie last season, and no other Bills wideout can match his size-speed combo at 6'5/220 with a 4.45 forty.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Bills 13

Philadelphia @ St. Louis

Always a fast starter, Michael Vick has a career 18:5 TD-to-INT ratio in the month of September with five more rushing scores and a 7.54 yards-per-carry average. The Rams' defense is better than given credit, but Vick is the best quarterback play in the league this week. He's exceptionally dangerous on turf. ... The sample size is admittedly small (two games), but LeSean McCoy also rips it up in a dome. He racked up 249 rushing yards and three scores on 32 indoor carries (7.78 YPC) last season, with seven receptions. The Rams are too slow to contain McCoy on the edges with 32-year-olds Ben Leber and Brady Poppinga starting at outside linebacker. ... Jeremy Maclin should eventually regain every-week starter status, but he's a wait-and-see WR3 against St. Louis after battling a mysterious illness all winter and spring, and failing to record a preseason catch.

I hope you like dome stats. In four career indoor games, DeSean Jackson averages five catches for 126 yards, with two touchdowns. Jackson will match up with Ronald Bartell for most of this one, and he's much quicker than the Rams' left corner. You'll want to start D-Jax. ... Vick spoke of throwing to Brent Celek more in the offseason, but St. Louis' tight end coverage is stout under Steve Spagnuolo. Opposing top tight ends managed just 41 catches for 490 yards in 16 games against the Rams last season, "good" for an average of under three receptions and 31 yards. They held Antonio Gates to 12 yards and Vernon Davis out of the end zone twice. The only tight ends to score on the Rams all year were Leonard Pope, Justin Peelle, and Brandon Pettigrew.

During the 2010 season, Raiders opponents attempted 470 passes. 249 were complete, but just 13 against now-Eagles RCB Nnamdi Asomugha. Brandon Gibson worked as the Rams' starting LWR all preseason, so you'll want to look elsewhere for a Week 1 sleeper. ... Slot man Danny Amendola remains the best bet for targets and catches in St. Louis' receiver corps. On Sunday, he'll square off with Eagles nickel back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. DRC was exclusively an outside corner in Arizona and is just now learning to cover the slot. ... Mike Sims-Walker hasn't cracked the starting lineup, but plays in all three-receiver sets, which will be used plenty by new coordinator Josh McDaniels. MSW will be in Asante Samuel's coverage for most of Sunday's game.

Bulky workloads should buoy Steven Jackson's value, but he's lost a significant amount of speed off his prime. S-Jax lumbered through August, failing to make defenders miss and outrunning no one. Jackson has the fourth most carries among active backs, and RBs Nos. 1-3 (Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson) are late-career role players. Still a safe bet for 20 touches, Jackson is a low-end RB2 against an Eagles front seven sputtering at linebacker and undersized on both ends. ... Sam Bradford might flirt with 35 pass attempts Sunday, but he's just a QB2 against one of the NFL's most talented pass defenses. ... Lance Kendricks generated hype by leading the Rams in preseason receiving and TDs. Philly is historically burned by tight ends, but we'd like to see the rookie block well enough to earn regular snaps before recommending him.

Score Prediction: Rams 27, Eagles 24

Detroit @ Tampa Bay


Bucs GM Mark Dominik spoke Tuesday of employing "a committee approach" in the backfield to save LeGarrette Blount from "workhorse" carries. That sounds nice in theory, but Tampa is fooling itself if it believes plodding backups Kregg Lumpkin and Earnest Graham pose any danger to defenses. The Bucs need to control this game on the ground, keeping Matthew Stafford and Detroit's high-flying offense off the field. Trouble is, if Tampa falls behind, Blount won't be playing because he's not part of the passing offense. And that's the risk you took when drafting Blount: The Bucs aren't as good as their 10-6 2010 record indicated. Blount is going to really hurt you when he doesn't get 17-20 carries a game, and the Buccaneers will be behind in more of them than they were last season. Start Blount as a non-PPR RB2 and hope this one stays close.

Late in his rookie season, Mike Williams lit up the Lions for six catches, 96 yards, and a score. Detroit's pass defense will improve this year, but not enough to consider Williams less than a WR2. Williams will see Lions RCB Eric Wright in primary coverage, and Wright was one of the least effective corners in football last year. It was a confidence issue. Williams is a good test to see if it's back. ... The Bucs put training wheels on Arrelious Benn in camp after last year's ACL tear. Don't be surprised if Benn and Dezmon Briscoe rotate evenly at the "Z" receiver position to open the season. ... Kellen Winslow has lost steam in recent years, but you could do worse as a conservative TE1. He's Tampa's second safest bet for targets. ... Josh Freeman is an interesting play in a sleeper shootout game, but all season the risk with him is going to be opportunities. The Bucs ranked 23rd in pass attempts last year, helping to result in seven games under 200 passing yards for Freeman. And they've been clear that no change in offensive philosophy is forthcoming.

I spent the last few days trying to contemplate a non-injury scenario in which Stafford wouldn't tear the cover off the league this season. The Lions might have the pass-happiest offense in the NFL, no inside run threat, an absolutely loaded pass-catching corps, and literally the strongest-armed quarterback in the game. You can dismiss preseason stats all you want, but the good players tend to play good in August (Aaron Rodgers) and bad players bad (Tarvaris Jackson). Stafford went 25-of-33 (75.8%) for 395 yards (12.0 YPA), five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He took one sack in 34 dropbacks. This is going to be a dynamite fantasy quarterback. ... The Lions' backfield pecking order behind Jahvid Best has yet to be established, but for now we can probably expect 16-18 touches for Best (5-7 in the form of catches), with 8-12 carries going to some combination of Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris. We'll know more about the backup situation next week. Best is an every-week starter in PPR leagues. He's much less of a factor in non-PPR formats.

The Bucs use CB Aqib Talib to shadow opposing top wide receivers, and he is usually a matchup nightmare. Talib missed preseason and the majority of camp with a hamstring injury, however, and it's unclear if he'll be 100 percent for the opener. Lock in Calvin Johnson. ... Bucs CB Ronde Barber covers opposing split end and slot receivers, so he'll be on Nate Burleson for most of this one. Despite his age, Pro Football Focus graded Barber as a top-four corner in the league last year. Burleson doesn't have an easy matchup. ... Unlike Shaun Hill, Stafford won't key in on burly tight end Brandon Pettigrew, instead attacking defenses with vertical passes. When Stafford does check down, it will be to Burleson in the slot or Best out of the backfield. Pettigrew will be a fantasy disappointment in an offense far different than what Detroit fielded for much of last season.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Bucs 23
<!--RW-->4:15PM ET Games

Carolina @ Arizona


Newly acquired Chester Taylor didn't begin practicing as a Cardinal until Tuesday, and poses no threat to Beanie Wells' Week 1 workload. There is even chatter that Taylor will be inactive for the game. A darkhorse to lead the league in carries this season, Wells should start quickly against a Panthers first-team defense that was gashed for 216 yards and two TDs on 38 preseason carries (5.68 YPC) by opposing first-team backs. MLB Jon Beason may play after missing all of camp with an Achilles' injury, but Carolina's linebackers aren't the problem. Wells and the Cardinals' interior line will have their way with Panthers rookie DTs Sione Fua and Terrell McClain on Sunday.

The Panthers may field the poorest cornerback depth chart in the league with Captain Munnerlyn, Josh Thomas, R.J. Stanford, and newly acquired draft bust Darius Butler behind Chris Gamble. The worst of it, however, is that Gamble's time as a viable NFL corner may be up. Benched late last season for performance (not John Fox "doghouse" reasons, as was speculated at the time), Gamble looked headed for possible revival when Ron Rivera tasked him with shadowing opposing top receivers. Gamble was subsequently torched by rookie A.J. Green for 45 yards and a touchdown in limited snaps during the third preseason game, not including another 27-yard Andy Dalton-Green hookup that was called back. Green separated with ease from Gamble all game. Larry Fitzgerald has faced Gamble and the Panthers seven times in his career, averaging eight catches for 115 yards with three touchdowns. This one could get ugly.

New coordinator Ray Horton will need to work magic this season, because the Cardinals' defense has a problematic look to it. The back end has nightmare potential with SS Adrian Wilson playing through a partially torn bicep and two first-year starters at corner. 2010 first-round disappointment Dan Williams was handed the nose tackle job unearned, and there isn't an older, slower, less effective pair of OLBs in the league than Clark Haggans and Joey Porter. Unless Horton gets his unit to overachieve, this will be a Grade-A fantasy matchup all year. ... DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rotated by possession with the first-team offense in the third preseason game. They both play on third downs, and there is no favorite for goal-line carries. Williams, the starter, projects to receive more touches and is a mid-range RB2 play. He should finish with at least 16 rushing attempts. Stewart should flirt with 15 touches, but struggled in August. He's a risky flex.

It would be unreasonable to expect Cam Newton to consistently complete passes after he finished preseason with a 42.1 completion rate. Just realize that there's a good chance Steve Smith will be consistently open on Sunday. An "X" receiver, Smith runs most of his deep routes down the left sideline, meaning he'll face off with Cardinals RCB Patrick Peterson for the majority of the game. At 219 lbs., Peterson is the heaviest corner in football. Highly explosive in and out of cuts, Smith will run circles around the hefty rookie in his first NFL start. Smitty is a boom-or-bust WR3, but this may be his most favorable matchup all season. ... Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotate at Z in Carolina's offense, with Naanee manning the slot on third down. They have favorable matchups with LCB A.J. Jefferson and slot CB Richard Marshall, but just aren't on the fantasy radar. Keep in mind Arizona's secondary going forward. ... Wilson will match up with Greg Olsen for most of this one. Unfortunately, Carolina won't score or throw much. Olsen is a blind roll of the dice as a TE1.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Panthers 17

Minnesota @ San Diego


The Minnesota secondary will have its hands full with the San Diego passing attack. The Vikings' first-team nickel defense starts 34-year-old Antoine Winfield in the slot, a real waste with Patrick Crayton not expected to play. The LCB is Chris Cook (Vincent Jackson, usually), and RCB Cedric Griffin (Malcom Floyd). Griffin has blown out both ACLs over the past two seasons, and Cook has struggled with chronic knee issues of his own. At safety, the Vikes are breaking in new starter Jamarca Sanford. It's tough to imagine this unit slowing down Philip Rivers, who ended August 31-of-45 (69%) for 377 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick. ... There wasn't a more impressive-looking receiver than V-Jax in preseason. He and Rivers picked right back up where they left off in 2009, when Jackson was the No. 12 overall fantasy wideout. Gregg Rosenthal has pegged V-Jax to lead all receivers in non-PPR scoring. I'll agree and pencil him in for a career-best PPR season.

Antonio Gates avoided the Week 1 injury report after a healthy camp, and he'll be the strongest fantasy tight end play in the league until he proves otherwise. ... Floyd went surprisingly early in drafts for a guy who benefited so much from Gates and V-Jax's 2010 absences. He will struggle for more than 5-6 targets on a weekly basis. ... We devoted a lot of preseason time to covering the Ryan Mathews-Mike Tolbert situation. I can say this with certainty: Mathews will explode if Tolbert gets injured, and you saw a glimpse of it in Week 17 last season. As is, however, Mathews is losing all goal-line and passing-down work to Tolbert. Even with this matchup improved by Vikings DT Kevin Williams' four-game suspension, Mathews is a mid-range RB2 in non-PPR leagues and only a flex consideration in PPR. The RBBC is an upside-sapping fantasy situation.

The Vikings' problematic line will likely catch up to Adrian Peterson at some point this season, but he's a lock for 25 Week 1 touches, particularly with the coaching staff talking up Peterson as a receiver. He's a no-brainer top-five running back play. San Diego has also experienced notable front-seven turnover. Three of the Chargers' starting linebackers are new, as is rookie RE Corey Liuget. This will be a tough run defense in time, but it may struggle a bit out of the chute. ... The Vikings field perhaps the least effective duo of outside receivers in the NFC. Bernard Berrian and Molasses Michael Jenkins combined for a 10.97 yards per catch average and two touchdowns last season. They both struggle to beat man coverage, so look for Percy Harvin to dominate Donovan McNabb's targets. A sleeper to catch 90 passes, Harvin was a steal in fantasy drafts.

McNabb is a clear QB2 in an offense that will focus heavily on the run, and lacks a pass-catching threat on the perimeter. An effective play-action game could translate to a nice week for McNabb here and there, but don't look for it against a Chargers team that led the league in pass defense last season and returns 3-of-4 secondary starters. The turnover is at strong safety, where Bob Sanders is an upgrade on the Paul Oliver-Steve Gregory rotation. ... The Bolts annually stink in tight end coverage, but Kyle Rudolph is a rookie and Visanthe Shiancoe missed camp with a bum hamstring. Look elsewhere for a Week 1 tight end sleeper. They will cancel each other out.

Score Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 17

Seattle @ San Francisco


An early preview to the Suck-4-Luck race, the 49ers host Seattle in what projects as an ugly, low-scoring game. Tarvaris Jackson finished the preseason 32-of-55 (58.2%) for 269 yards (4.9 YPA), one touchdown, two interceptions, and seven sacks taken. Alex Smith came pretty close to out-awfulling T-Jack by going 20-of-36 (55.6%) for 198 yards (5.5 YPA), no scores, two picks, and four sacks. The Seahawks are expected to be without Sidney Rice (shoulder), leaving Ben Obomanu to start opposite Big Mike Williams. Williams and Zach Miller will contend to lead the team in targets from an erratic quarterback. If T-Jack struggles in the first half, don't be surprised to see Charlie Whitehurst replace him at intermission. This is going to be a disaster offense.

Cohesion is integral to a zone-blocking run scheme like Seattle's, but the Seahawks didn't have a hint of it in August. LG Robert Gallery (knee) is expected to miss Week 1, the right tackle situation is up in the air, and LT Russell Okung is just now getting back from his third high ankle sprain in two years. Marshawn Lynch did nothing to ease concerns about his lack of starting-caliber talent by running six times for 10 yards (1.7 YPC) in the preseason. He isn't going to have holes, he doesn't make anyone miss, and he doesn't play on third downs. Avoid Lynch.

After an ugly start to preseason, the 49ers' O-Line got it together a bit late in August. The Niners start four former top-40 picks and added a 2009 Pro Bowler in C Jonathan Goodwin, so talent isn't the issue. They should open holes for Frank Gore. Don't be surprised to see a lopsided run-to-pass ratio out of San Francisco, leaning heavily on the former. Preseason rushing leader Kendall Hunter is screaming up the depth chart, and Jim Harbaugh needs to find ways to get him the ball. Harbaugh has a history of going extremely run-heavy, dating back to his Stanford and University of San Diego teams. Gore should easily hit 20 touches, and Hunter will probably be a hot Week 2 waiver pickup when he gets 8-12 himself. Described as a "carbon copy" of Brian Westbrook during his Philadelphia prime by NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Hunter is going to be very good.

Smith's preseason was alarming, but rookie Colin Kaepernick was far worse and should give the starter a long leash. That's good news for Vernon Davis, easily Smith's favorite target in the pass game. Davis has dropped lines of 5-70-1, 8-73, 6-111-1 in his last three meetings with Seattle. Heavy-legged Seahawks SS Kam Chancellor was projected as a linebacker by teams coming out in the 2010 draft, and Davis should have his way with Chancellor. ... Braylon Edwards will square off for most of Sunday's game with Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner, who was in the CFL last year. The Niners would be smart to pepper Browner with deep pass attempts. Edwards has a good matchup. ... Seahawks LCB Marcus Trufant is declining, but has the size and physicality to keep Josh Morgan in check. Shy away from Morgan, as he also may rotate with Michael Crabtree. Crabtree is expected to play limited snaps after missing training camp with a foot injury.

Score Prediction: 49ers 13, Seahawks 10

NY Giants @ Washington


For the price of a seventh- or eighth-round fantasy pick, you'll get more than your money's worth out of Tim Hightower this season. Hitting on all cylinders behind an offensive line that didn't miss a single training camp practice together -- critical to a zone-blocking scheme -- Hightower rang up 170 yards and a score on 25 preseason carries (6.8 YPC). Hightower faced first-team defenses of the Steelers and Ravens, so this was no fluke. And he will start hot against a Giants front seven reeling with injuries. Sixth-round pick Greg Jones has gone from third-stringer to first-team middle linebacker in a matter of four days. LE Justin Tuck, a beastly run defender, is questionable with a stinger. New starting NT Linval Joseph is 22 years old and lost his rotation partner when Marvin Austin tore his pectoral muscle in camp. The Redskins' coaching staff is well aware that Rex Grossman is a game-blowing error waiting to happen, which is why they wanted John Beck to win the quarterback starting job. Beck didn't, and they'll open the year gashing opponents with the run.

Redskins slot man Santana Moss is one of the least sexy receiver plays going, but he's got an awfully favorable matchup against a Giants team that lost CB Terrell Thomas to a torn ACL in the preseason. Thomas was projected to cover the slot this year, and that's where Moss plays his snaps in three-receiver sets. New York even lost backup slot corner Bruce Johnson to a torn Achilles'. Start Moss. ... In terms of targets, helping to clear the way for Moss is Chris Cooley's balky knee. The coaches won't say whether Cooley will play, and he may be on a snap count if he does. Avoid Cooley and keep an eye on Fred Davis. ... Jabar Gaffney is even less exciting than Moss, and he's likely to spend most of this game in Giants top CB Corey Webster's coverage.

Washington overhauled its secondary in the offseason, acquiring more playmakers (O.J. Atogwe, Josh Wilson) with suspect cover skills. Wilson can run with any receiver, but he's a diminutive gambler at 5-foot-9, 192. Atogwe excels at stripping runners and making plays on the ball, but he's burnable in the back end. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham need to be locked into lineups. Nicks is a top-five receiver and Manningham top-20 with the potential to flirt with top-10 stats. The Giants have no threat of an inside pass game, so Eli Manning will pepper his outside receivers with targets. Nicks and Manningham are both legit candidates for 100 receiving yards.

Manning should complete enough throws to keep Manningham and Nicks fed, but his awful camp and preseason are causes for serious concern. Eli looked uncomfortable throughout August without slot receiver Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss, consistently missing easy throws over the middle. He finished the exhibition season 27-of-55 (49.1%) for 314 yards (5.7 YPA), no scores, and two interceptions. We'd call it no big deal if Manning was better in practices, but he wasn't. Eli may be exposed this season as the mediocre NFL quarterback he always has been. ... Not enough was made over the past month of the fact that the Giants are moving toward an even timeshare in the backfield. While it's too early to say how well the revamped Redskins front seven will jell as a run defense, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are more low-end RB2/flex types than surefire fantasy starters. Bradshaw isn't going to approach last year's 323 touches.

Score Prediction: Redskins 21, Giants 20
<!--RW-->Sunday Night Football

Dallas @ NY Jets


I always felt Santonio Holmes was underrated in drafts. He'll show up big in this one. Cowboys LCB Terence Newman (groin) has been ruled out, moving slot corner Orlando Scandrick outside. Scandrick is routinely burned in space, and the Jets' dangerous rushing attack will prevent Dallas from bracketing Holmes out of the pass game. Holmes will set career highs in targets, receptions, and fantasy rank this year. It begins on Sunday Night Football. ... Cowboys NT Jay Ratliff slimmed to 285 pounds this offseason, a questionable move from a run defense standpoint. Jets All-Pro C Nick Mangold and RG Brandon Moore should manhandle Ratliff at the point of attack. During the preseason, Dallas' first-team defense allowed 175 yards and a TD on 33 carries (5.30 YPC) to opposing first-team backs, perhaps due in no small part to Ratliff's melting body. Shonn Greene is ticketed for 20+ carries.

I wouldn't bet against Plaxico Burress scoring a touchdown in prime time, but he needs to prove himself a full-time player before he's inserted into fantasy starting lineups. You probably drafted him as a WR4. Let's see the 34-year-old receiver make it through four quarters before using him. ... Dustin Keller would've been a lot more intriguing from a fantasy standpoint had the Jets not signed Derrick Mason. Keller's weekly targets will be inconsistent, and his snaps may be as well. When Burress or Mason goes down -- and, considering their age, one of them probably will -- Keller could emerge as one of Mark Sanchez's go-to receivers. For now, he's TE2 material.

The Cowboys will field one of the NFL's most explosive offenses this season. And they'll have to, because their secondary won't stop anyone. Underrated in 2011 fantasy drafts, Tony Romo will reap the rewards. Romo can be expected to target Jason Witten and Dez Bryant relentlessly on Sunday night, attacking the Jets over the middle and deep downfield. Miles Austin is an excellent receiver, but he needs to be on benches. Darrelle Revis will approach Nnamdi Asomugha status this season as a cornerback against whom offenses just don't throw. Revis shadows all opposing No. 1 receivers, and it certainly doesn't help Austin's chances that he typically plays on the right side of the offensive formation. Revis, in nature, is an LCB. ... Bryant and Cromartie will be the matchup of the night. It is impossible to predict things with certainty in this business, but by all appearances, Bryant is on the hook for a big game. The Cowboys need him, because Austin won't be a factor.

Someone told me in the spring that Jason Witten was overrated in fantasy. After a double take, I hit the internets for Witten's career stats. Witten has finished either No. 1 or No. 2 in fantasy scoring among tight ends in three of the past four seasons. He has never missed a game in his career due to injury, and enters Week 1 as the favorite to lead the Cowboys in catches and yards. Romo will need to get it out quick to Witten with RT Tyron Smith nursing a hyperextended knee, and it can't hurt Witten's target total that No. 2 TE Martellus Bennett is out for the game with a high ankle sprain. ... The Jets are annually tough in run defense, but Felix Jones is setup for 20 touches in this one. While he's not an especially good bet for a true breakout game, 100 total yards are within reach. I watched every preseason snap taken by Jones. Notable: When Dallas' first-team was on the field, Jones was in for each play inside the opposing 10-yard line. He will get goal-line carries.

Score Prediction: Jets 24, Cowboys 23

Monday Night Football

New England @ Miami


The Patriots' backfield will become muddied over the course of the season, but in Week 1 expect it to open like it finished 2010. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the clock-killing early-down back, and Danny Woodhead the rich man's version of Kevin Faulk as a receiver, slot man, occasional inside carrier, and blitz protector. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are the future, but there is no reason to believe they are the present. At least not yet ... Green-Ellis has scored in three of his four career meetings with Miami. This is a game setup well for "Law Firm" because he dominates when New England has the lead. And the Fins look like a pushover opponent. ... Woodhead can be expected to receive 10-12 touches. I personally would be looking for an option with more upside. ... Wes Welker has at least eight catches in each of his last four games against the Fins. Start 'em, especially in PPR.

The Dolphins field one of the better outside corner duos in football with Vontae Davis on the left and Sean Smith on the right. The Pats' three-receiver set is comprised of Chad Ochocinco, Welker, and Deion Branch. Branch and Ochocinco are the outside receivers on most of the snaps. Perhaps one of them will score a fluky touchdown, but neither has a good-looking matchup. I'd like to know more about the Patriots' receiver rotation before investing in it, anyhow. ... Rob Gronkowski caught six balls for 102 yards and a TD in his last meeting with the Dolphins. I'm just not sure how the Fins are going to stop him, barring a game plan that employs Gronkowski as a blocker. ... Aaron Hernandez is coming off a big August and has rare athleticism for a tight end. The TE position is just so deep in fantasy, and Hernandez plays about 50 percent of the snaps. He's too boom or bust for my liking.

The Pats-Fins over-under is the second largest of Week 1. If there ever was one, this is the week to play Reggie Bush. Daniel Thomas came down with an in-practice hamstring pull, and the coaching staff has never shown faith in Lex Hilliard. Bush is in line for 18-20 touches, opening the season as a true feature back. ... Especially in a PPR league, I'll take these averages against New England from Brandon Marshall: Seven catches for 74 yards with two touchdowns in four games. Marshall is a shoo-in WR2. He looked as athletic and fast as ever in the preseason. ... Davone Bess is never a sexy start, but he gets open and catches passes. He's a borderline every-week WR3 in PPR.

Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 13

Oakland @ Denver


The Broncos are rushing back NT Brodrick Bunkley from a knee injury that cost him over two weeks of camp and the preseason finale. New to the system, Bunkley is likely to be at least somewhat behind the curve and perhaps a bit out of shape. Even if Bunkley were in top condition, Denver was going to contend for the worst run defense in football. Darren McFadden, legs fresh after a carry-less preseason, has faced the Broncos six career times. He's averaged an otherworldly 6.16 yards per carry with six touchdowns. McFadden also averages 98 total yards per game against Denver, though that's only on an average of 15 touches. He'll get the rock 25 times on Monday night. ... Jacoby Ford is going to be much better than his fantasy draft slotting indicated, but this is a week to wait and see. Don't mess with Champ Bailey. ... Jason Campbell is basically in the same boat. Oakland needs to pound the Broncos with the run, shying away from an underrated pass defense.

The Raiders have lost 11 straight prime-time games, seven of them on Monday night. So Broncos fans have something to get excited about; it certainly won't be their team's offense. All indications from the Denver preseason were that John Fox will install a heavily run-oriented attack, as expected according to his history. Knowshon Moreno will get the vast majority of the work between the 20s and is a candidate for 18-plus weekly touches. Willis McGahee is a roll of the dice as a goal-line back who will kill you if he doesn't score. ... Brandon Lloyd should've been the happiest guy in the room when Nnamdi Asomugha left Oakland in free agency. Lloyd struggled against a healthy Asomugha last season, and Stanford Routt isn't quite as intimidating. Lloyd is the Broncos' pass catcher to start in this one. ... Kyle Orton's attempts will be down, and he did not fare well in his lone 2010 meeting with the Raiders, going just 12-of-29 for 198 yards. That's a 41.4 completion rate.

Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Broncos 17
 

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Week 1's Injury Questions

What a great day to be alive.

That’s the way I feel on the Thursday of March Madness, baseball’s Opening Day, the season premier of Curb Your Enthusiasm and, of course, the NFL’s first Sunday. It’s exhilarating.

As we all know, understanding injuries goes a long way toward success in fantasy football. So it’s fitting that one of the game’s premier players, Arian Foster, is front and center on the report. We’re tentatively expecting veteran Derrick Ward to get the start and talented youngster Ben Tate to be mixed in frequently. Why rush Foster back at less than 100 percent with such impressive backfield depth?

Each week in this space, we’ll bring you the latest line on all the hurt folks. Of course, the Rotoworld News Page will be humming all Sunday morning to bring you official word on all your players ahead of kickoff. To make sure you’re prepared, read every word of these rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Wesseling in combination with Evan Silva’s unprecedented Matchup Column.

And if you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft here.

OK, let’s get to the hurt folks:

1 P.M. GAMES
STEELERS at RAVENS
* Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is unlikely to play. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are ahead of him on the depth chart anyway.

BENGALS at BROWNS
* Mohamed Massaquoi (foot) practiced in full this week. He’s ready to serve as the Browns’ No. 1 receiver but remains a low-upside fantasy option.
* Ben Watson (hip) is going to play and will likely share reps with the emerging Evan Moore.

COLTS at TEXANS
* Arian Foster (hamstring) is officially a game-time decision. However, most observers have predicted that Foster will sit. Derrick Ward is the expected starter and figures to get more touches if he handles himself well early. Ben Tate will come on and projects as the more explosive runner.
* Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know Peyton Manning (neck) is out. Kerry Collins will start.
* Austin Collie (foot) is ready to play but is a high-risk option as the Colts overhaul their offensive scheme without Manning.
* Anthony Gonzalez (hamstring) and Blair White (back) are both nearing health but not fantasy options.

TITANS at JAGUARS
* Chris Johnson (holdout) is fully up to speed and ready to go. Do not sit him under any circumstance.
* Backup Javon Ringer (hip) is a game-time decision, enhancing Johnson’s appeal even more.
* Zach Miller (knee) will probably play but is not a viable pass-catcher even when 100 percent.

BILLS at CHIEFS
* Matt Cassel (rib) is going to strap on a flak jacket and get out there. His performance shouldn’t be limited.
* Steve Breaston (hamstring) was a late addition to the injury report, never a good sign. He’s a very weak fantasy play.
* Jonathan Baldwin (thumb) is out after foolishly dropping the gloves with Thomas Jones a few weeks back.

FALCONS at BEARS
* Roddy White (thigh) is a full go. He picked up a mere bruise way back in the second preseason game.
* Marion Barber (calf) is out. Look for Matt Forte to pick up the goal-line work as Khalil Bell moves into the backup role.

LIONS at BUCS
* Maurice Morris (hand) is ready to go despite an erroneous report in the middle of the week. He’s the backup to Jahvid Best, slightly ahead of Jerome Harrison.

EAGLES at RAMS
* Vince Young (hamstring) is going to sit this one out. Mike Kafka would step in if anything happened to Michael Vick.
*Steve Smith (knee) is expecting to be active for a small package of plays.
* Michael Hoomanawanui (calf) is likely out, but he’s just a blocker anyway. Lance Kendricks’ role is unaffected.


4 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS at REDSKINS
* Chris Cooley (knee) is very questionable. Even if he plays, Fred Davis figures to be worked in plenty. We can do better.
* Travis Beckum (hamstrings) is headed for a game-time decision. Despite pass-catching skills, he has not earned a major role.
* Ryan Torain (hand) is expected to be ready to serve as the No. 3 back.

PANTHERS at CARDINALS
N/A

SEAHAWKS at 49ERS
* Sidney Rice (shoulder) is not going to play and may have a serious injury. Ben Obomanu is going to start.

VIKINGS at CHARGERS
* Visanthe Shiancoe (hamstring) is ready to go despite missing the majority of camp. Yawn.


SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
COWBOYS at JETS
* Miles Austin (hamstring) hasn’t been practicing in full but will play. The bigger concern is that he’s at less than 100 percent and scheduled to do battle with Darrelle Revis.
* Martellus Bennett (ankle) is out.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
PATRIOTS at DOLPHINS
* Daniel Thomas (hamstring) looks like he’ll be a go, but has had a nightmarish preseason. Avoid.
* Taylor Price (hamstring) should be fine for a limited role.
* Shane Vereen (hamstring) and Stevan Ridley (ankle) will both likely be available. Neither are on the fantasy radar yet.

RAIDERS at BRONCOS
* Kevin Boss (knee) is not expected to play, with Brandon Myers starting instead.
* Chaz Schilens (knee) is healthy for now. He’s part of a very muddled receiver rotation behind Jacoby Ford in Oakland.
* Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) is ahead of schedule, but still a few weeks away from playing.


SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK

Week 1 is always a danger spot in Survivor and this year is no different. Vegas lists zero double-digit favorites as they are just as unclear as everyone else about who is elite and who isn’t. Parity rules in the NFL.

I will be taking the Texans for simple reasons. They are at home, they are facing a Colts team starting Kerry Collins and they have made massive upgrades in personnel and coaching defensively. The Colts are obviously going to be a shell of themselves physically, but the mental adjustment of playing without Peyton Manning figures to be jarring.

I strongly considered the Browns this week, but they have the Seahawks at home in Week 7. The Texans next really strong option isn’t until Carolina in Week 15.

I would stay away from some of the “too good to be true” road teams in Week 1. The Patriots and Eagles will have safer spots down the line we can exploit.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
In a 16-team full PPR league, my WR3 choice came down to Austin Collie vs. Mike Sims-Walker. If Peyton Manning was healthy, this would be a simple decision. Instead, I was forced to agonize over it.

The Colts are likely to abandon their four-wide sets, leaving Collie’s snap count in jeopardy. However, I believe Collie is a better talent than Pierre Garcon and Kerry Collins will need to lean on Collie’s skills as a possession receiver. To me, that’s a safer bet than Sims-Walker, who is still establishing his role on the Rams. Also, the Colts figure to be playing from behind, leading to more pass attempts than they want. So the choice is Collie, by the smallest of margins.
 

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The Hard Count: Week 1

Sanchez, Stewart could be early bargains; be wary of Redskins, Moreno


By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Welcome to The Hard Count, my new column dedicated to finding the most interesting pressure-point players for the upcoming weekend. For those folks who remember The Breakdown (which was a column I wrote for ESPN.com for each of the past four seasons), the formula should be familiar: I'll use film study and stats to find value and discuss matchups. But rather than tackle every game (which my schedule found to be all-consuming), here I'll examine ESPN.com's weekly rankings and find players where I deviate from the pack, so I can explain why. Or, at the very least, I can help explain why all the rankers have taken a perhaps-unexpected stance on a player.


Let's look at Week 1, minus Packers/Saints:


Five In Depth:



1. New York Jets' passing game versus Dallas Cowboys' defense. I've been making a case for Mark Sanchez as at least having the opportunity for a breakout season, though whether he makes good on his promise comes down to improving his accuracy substantially. He'll get a nice first matchup. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman (groin) and will start the utterly unimpressive Orlando Scandrick in Newman's place. In addition, Mike Jenkins reportedly hyperextended a knee in practice this week and required an MRI. Jenkins says he'll play, but yikes. Not that we can read too much into year-over-year fantasy defensive numbers, but recall that this Dallas unit allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH><TH>Fantasy Points per Game </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Texans vs. QB </TD><TD>4,359 </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>19.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cowboys vs. QB </TD><TD>3,989 </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>17.7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seahawks vs. QB </TD><TD>4,085 </TD><TD>31 </TD><TD>17.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Redskins vs. QB </TD><TD>4,120 </TD><TD>22 </TD><TD>16.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Broncos vs. QB </TD><TD>3,595 </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>16.6 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



This helps explain why I'm somewhat more bullish on Sanchez this week than our other ESPN.com rankers. Not that I'm entirely convinced that the third-year quarterback is ready to make an accuracy leap. But he looks like a sneaky deep-league starter to me Sunday night, and Santonio Holmes could run wild.


2. Pittsburgh Steelers/Baltimore Ravens blood feud. Although I truly believe that you can't tell much from an NFL team's schedule before the season starts, many folks who drafted Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall looked at Week 1 with nerves aplenty. That's because Pittsburgh and Baltimore regularly feature two of the stingiest rush defenses around. I mean, if you're going to project anything to recur from year to year, it would be that these guys will be tough to run against:


Rush Yards Allowed

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team </TH><TH>2010 </TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH><TH>2009 </TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH><TH>2008 </TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH><TH>2007 </TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH><TH>2006 </TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Steelers </TD><TD>1,004 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>1,438 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>1,284 </TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>1,438 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>1,412 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravens </TD><TD>1,503 </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>1,492 </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>1,302 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>1,268 </TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>1,214 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



So it's fair to treat this game with great trepidation. Steelers LB James Harrison may not be at full strength because of offseason back surgery, but the team otherwise has nearly nonsensical depth along the defensive line, and thumping Troy Polamalu's Achilles is apparently fully healed. The Ravens' cast of defensive characters may look familiar, too, but we have no proof yet that Haloti Ngata, Cory Redding or Ray Lewis, probably the three primary cornerstones of the run defense, are slowing down. Listen, you drafted Rice and Mendy to start. It's going to be mighty tough not to do so in the season's first week. But the numbers aren't pretty from the past five meetings between these teams:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH> </TH><TH>Carries </TH><TH>Rush Yds </TH><TH>Rush TDs </TH><TH>Catches </TH><TH>Rec Yds </TH><TH>Rec TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Rice vs. PIT </TD><TD>15.6 </TD><TD>62.6 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD><TD>3.2 </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mendenhall vs. BAL </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>60.2 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>1.8 </TD><TD>13 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Ouch. The primary difference between the two backs is that Mendenhall has scored five times in these five contests (including last year's playoff game), and Rice has scored only once. But is it possible that FB Vonta Leach's presence -- and the absence of Willis McGahee -- will give Rice a cheapie score Sunday? Yeah, it's possible, but I actually rated Mendy above Rice this week and was the only ESPN.com ranker to do so.

3. Not Peyton's place. What in the wild, wild world of sports are the Indianapolis Colts going to look like without Peyton Manning on Sunday? We have to go back to 1997, when Jim Harbaugh was the starting quarterback, to even envision such a scenario. Kerry Collins is 38 years old and has spent all of 17 days working in Indy's complicated pass offense. In theory, starting Week 1 against a Houston Texans defense that was easily the league's worst against the pass last year would make for a gentle ease-in for Collins. But Wade Phillips took over as defensive coordinator and turned over personnel. Johnathan Joseph is now the top corner, finally serving as an adequate replacement for Dunta Robinson (who left for the Atlanta Falcons before the '10 season). Danieal Manning will play center field as the free safety, another strong move. And first-round pick J.J. Watt will play 3-4 end, freeing up Mario Williams to play the DeMarcus Ware role at outside linebacker. I'm not saying this unit will be great. I'm just saying I'm not positive that this is a field-day scenario for Collins.


Listen, it goes without saying that Collins will have elite skill-position weapons. I think it's probably pretty hard to sit Reggie Wayne, even if he's man-on-man with Joseph all day, and to my eyes, the Texans haven't done much that makes me think they're ready to be significantly better against tight ends (they allowed 915 yards and seven scores to the position in '10), so Dallas Clark is also probably a fantasy starter. But until we see how Collins looks, you probably have to sit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Collins himself rated No. 21 on my QB list for Week 1; not a ringing endorsement, I know. It's not like he didn't make a little sweet music with Kenny Britt last year, though, right? The untold story here is how Peyton has covered for a subpar offensive line for at least a couple of years. His decision-making and release are so quick that he took relatively few hits. Collins isn't that guy. There are real questions about pass protection in Indy. Seat belts? Fastened.


4. The Daily Show. I'm very, very interested to see whether the Carolina Panthers have made any strides. The obvious, media-driven story one way or another will be Cam Newton. If the Panthers win games, Newton will get credit. If he doesn't, we'll all line up to say, "I told you so." But do we forget how bloody amazing the Panthers' run game was until last year?


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>Carries </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>Rush TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>DeAngelo Williams, 2008 </TD><TD>273 </TD><TD>1515 </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jonathan Stewart, 2008 </TD><TD>184 </TD><TD>836 </TD><TD>10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>DeAngelo Williams, 2009 </TD><TD>216 </TD><TD>1117 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jonathan Stewart, 2009 </TD><TD>221 </TD><TD>1133 </TD><TD>10 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Certainly, the drop-off from Jake Delhomme to Matt Moore/Jimmy Clausen/Brian St. Pierre was part of the problem in '10, as was the ever-present skein of injuries these two running backs endure. But also remember that the offensive line suffered a couple of huge medical problems last year: Right tackle Jeff Otah, a terrific run-blocker, didn't play a down after knee surgery, and powerful left guard Travelle Wharton had a serious toe injury that eventually knocked him out for the year. Wharton is certified healthy, and while Otah didn't do much in training camp or the preseason, he's expected to be back in there Week 1, too. Boy, that makes a big difference.


Kevin Kolb (and his effect on Larry Fitzgerald) is the headline story in Arizona, but it's hard to look at the Cardinals' defense and feel stoked. They allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL last season, and I have to say: It looks like kind of the same old crew again out there, except they traded a formerly great veteran corner (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) for a giant rookie corner (Patrick Peterson). D-Willy is a no-doubt starter to begin the year, and this game is no exception. But I've got my eye on Stewart as a sneaky flex. Sure, he'll be battling ankle and foot issues 'til the cows come home, but he always goes out there and plays with 'em, doesn't he? He had 'em in each of his double-digit-TD seasons, after all.


5. The Wes Welker of the Midwest. A couple of ESPN.com rankers seem to believe in Danny Amendola more than I do, and there's a persuasive storyline behind that belief. After all, new Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels presided over Welker's transformation into the Slot Machine and even rediscovered Eddie Royal out of the slot last year in Denver after his ill-fated effort to make Royal an outside guy. And Amendola already finished eighth in the NFL in catches last year, under Pat Shurmur's short-passing tutelage. In fact, let's just look at Amendola's '10 season overall:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH></TH><TH>NFL Rank </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Catches </TD><TD>85 </TD><TD>8th </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Yards </TD><TD>689 </TD><TD>43rd </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Targets </TD><TD>122 </TD><TD>18th </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Red Zone Targets </TD><TD>24 </TD><TD>1st (t) </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>TDs </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>54th (t) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



After you get over the marvel of a player tying for the lead in the NFL in red zone targets and catching 16 of them, and having only three of them go for touchdowns, let's clear our heads. Nobody is claiming Amendola is suddenly going to be a downfield receiver, right? I mean that's not why you'd contemplate using him as a flex. The thought is that McD wants to throw, and Amendola is the only reliable commodity he's got. Which is true.


But the whole reason everyone's getting excited about Sam Bradford this year is the idea that McD will throw it down the field, having created Brandon Lloyd last year from whole cloth. It seems to me that to be excited about Amendola is to believe there will still be a whole bunch of dump-offs in '11. And I'm sure there will be some, absolutely. But to contend in the NFC West, the Rams have to find at least one downfield player with whom they can scare defenses. Who that might be will be a tremendously interesting subplot of Michael Vick's visit to St. Louis. Will it be Mike Sims-Walker or Brandon Gibson, the presumptive outside starting pair? Will it be Danario Alexander, the most talented player in this receiving corps but a knee injury waiting to happen? Will it be one of the rookies, Greg Salas or Austin Pettis? Bradford's fantasy relevance depends on someone emerging from this group. If the Amendola optimists are right, and Danny A. heads for another 85-catch season, I think it might mean bad things for the Rams offense as a whole.


Five In Brief



6. D.C. cover-up? I can't help feeling we're all being hoodwinked by what seemed like a strong preseason for the Washington Redskins. Gosh, Tim Hightower looked great! That offensive line is for real! Maybe Rex Grossman can be enough of a caretaker! The defense has some players! Mike Shanahan knows what he's doing after all! Yeah, maybe. All I know is this defense looks an awful lot like the one that allowed the second-most pass yards and the seventh-most rush yards last season. DeAngelo Hall scares nobody. LaRon Landry is out with leg injuries. The defensive ends are Stephen Bowen and Adam Carriker, and Barry Cofield isn't a true nose guy. The New York Giants' defense is so injury-ravaged it's crazy, so we may not get a true measure of the Redskins' offense Sunday. But I think we'll see their defense give it up in a major way.


7. Short people. I was the only ranker to stay away from Danny Woodhead in Week 1. But you know what? The other guys are probably right: Woody likely will finish the week as a top-50 fantasy RB. So why didn't I give him love? It may be a philosophical thing: This early in the year, I'm trying to locate players who could springboard from the dregs into true fantasy relevance. Woodhead might have less downside than guys like Delone Carter, Roy Helu and Deji Karim, but those guys have significantly more upside. BenJarvus Green-Ellis still looks like the TD maker in New England, Stevan Ridley looks like a viable big-back alternative, and eventually Shane Vereen might be heard from. But yes, Woodhead will get his 8 to 12 touches per week, rain or shine.

8. Say No To Knowshon. John Fox helps a team's running game. I do believe that. I hate when analysis comes down to simple connect-the-dots, but the numbers don't lie. Fox likes ball control, and on average his receivers are significantly less far down the field when they make catches than is standard in the NFL. Still, I'm the only holdout when it comes to Knowshon Moreno numbering among the top 20 running backs. I'm not buying it yet. I remember what Moreno looked like briefly in '10, before his hammies starting barking. He was quick around the corner for a pretty big guy. But overall, I think back on his video body of work the past two years, and I'm underwhelmed. And seriously, what would you put the over/under on Willis McGahee's rushing touchdowns this season? Seven? I might take the over. When Tim Tebow spit the bit during camp, it was a momentary reprieve for Moreno. But McGahee already being named the short-yardage back isn't good.


9. Big targets by the Bay. It's a sudden reversal of fortune for the theoretical top wideouts in San Francisco and Seattle. Michael Crabtree was supposed to be the absent one. Sidney Rice was supposed to play. But now Rice's injured shoulder is so bad, it looks like Mike Williams will once again have to step into the No. 1 receiving role. And Crabtree practiced with the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday and pronounced himself ready to go in a return from foot surgery. You have to bench Rice, which is too bad, because a Carlos Rogers/Tarell Brown/Donte Whitner/Dashon Goldson 49ers secondary is about the best an NFL wideout can hope to run against these days (and Goldson might not go because of a knee injury). But what about Crabtree? Well, somehow the Seattle Seahawks are starting a person I never heard of in the corner spot opposite Marcus Trufant. Brandon Browner? A 27-year-old CFL player? Wow. I mean, I guess it could work out. It would be a Cinderella story. I've literally seen no tape on the guy, so I can't weigh in intelligently, plus we haven't seen Crabtree run yet this year. You probably have to sit the mercurial former Texas Tech star. But if he breaks out, it won't be a shock.


10. Bruised purple. Why do I have a feeling the most lopsided score from this weekend's games will be the San Diego Chargers absolutely throttling the Minnesota Vikings? I fear for Donovan McNabb's mental well-being. He had a bad offensive line in D.C. last year, and he jumps to what looks like a worse one in '11. The biggest problem may be that Charlie Johnson, a perennial disappointment with the Colts who's really best-suited to be a guard, has signed up to be the left tackle and protect Donnie Football's blind side. But right guard Anthony Herrera, who's strong when healthy, is also a real worry, as he tore an ACL late last year and may not be at peak effectiveness. Plus on defense, the Williams Wall is gone (Pat Williams was cut, Kevin Williams is suspended) and underrated end Ray Edwards now labors in Atlanta. Of course, the Chargers are capable of doing myriad dumb things early in seasons, but to me this looks messy. Adrian Peterson, please show us you're superhuman.
 

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Boldly going into Week 1

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com


You heard me!

With a preseason shortened by the lockout, we ran out of time to do all of my normal favorites, including one of my most popular, the bold predictions piece I call "You heard me!" The idea is that we pretend we know each other. And then we pretend that not only do we know each other, but we like each other enough to hang out. And then pretend, instead of talking about my two favorite subjects (me and no, seriously, pretty much just me), we were actually talking sports. And I said something like "I think Tony Romo leads the NFL in passing yards this season." And you'd say "What?!?" And then I'd say, "You heard me! Now, what were you were saying about me?"


So instead of a typical "Love/Hate" intro this week, I thought I'd do a quick version of my bold predictions for the year, before the season kicks off tonight. Keep in mind that in order for a prediction to be bold, it has to go against conventional wisdom. Saying Drew Brees is a top-5 fantasy quarterback this year isn't a bold prediction, it's conventional. Saying injury-prone Matthew Stafford will be? That's bold and unexpected and unconventional. Given the right circumstances (him staying upright for 16 games being a big one), it could happen.


So here, now, is a bold prediction for every other NFL team to go along with my Stafford one, which I'm serious about, with a quick line of why I think, if everything breaks right, it could happen:


Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a top-12 fantasy quarterback. My thinking: He had a stretch last year where he was the hottest fantasy QB out there. Now he's had a full preseason with reps as the No. 1 starter (he was the backup heading into last season) and the whole team has a year's experience in Chan Gailey's system.


Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne throws for more than 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns. My thinking: Looking at next-level stats, he got unlucky last season. A better year out of Brandon Marshall and pass-catching Reggie Bush out of the backfield will help.

New England Patriots: Aaron Hernandez, the 18th tight end being drafted, finishes top-10 at the position. My thinking: He's a matchup problem who can run all sorts of routes and Brady will look for him a lot more often than folks think. This narrowly beats out Randy Moss re-signing with the Pats. Hey, they still need a deep threat.


New York Jets: Shonn Greene is a top-10 fantasy running back. My thinking: If I keep saying it, one of these years it will come true.


Dallas Cowboys: 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns for Dez Bryant. My thinking: I ranked Austin ahead of Bryant because he's safer and proven, but if you told me one Cowboys wide receiver explodes into Andre Johnson territory this season, I'd say it's Dez, who has the physical tools and is in the right system to put up crazy numbers.


New York Giants: Eli Manning has the worst statistical season of his career and becomes not startable in non bye weeks of 16-team leagues. My thinking: Had 30 turnovers last year and he's looked terrible this preseason. Lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in the offseason.


Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick plays all 16 games. My thinking: What the hell. I'm already all in on him as it is.


Washington Redskins: 1,500 total yards for Tim Hightower. My thinking: It hasn't been recently, but Mike Shanahan has stuck with one running back and gotten big seasons out of them before.


Denver Broncos: 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns for Willis McGahee. My thinking: They've already said he's the goal-line back. You know John Fox will run it, and with Moreno's injury history ...


Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles is the No. 1 fantasy running back this year. My thinking: Schedule, schmedule. He was the third-best fantasy running back last year and scored only five rushing touchdowns. If he gets that up to eight or nine ...


San Diego Chargers: Mike Tolbert, who went four rounds later than Ryan Mathews, has more fantasy points at the end of the year. My thinking: Tolbert is the better blocker and will be in on more passing downs, they'll ultimately wind up splitting carries and Tolbert is the goal- line back. Mathews has yet to prove anything.


Oakland Raiders: 1,000 yards for Jacoby Ford. My thinking: Someone's gotta catch it.


Arizona Cardinals: A career high of 120 receptions for Larry Fitzgerald. My thinking: John Clayton brought this point up during the ESPN Radio Chicago fantasy football convention: He had 173 targets last year and caught 90 with the worst quarterback play possible. They're still gonna throw it a ton, especially with no running back depth, and if he just catches two more balls a game ...


San Francisco 49ers: 1,000 yards and seven scores for Michael Crabtree. My thinking: The hate has gone too far.


Seattle Seahawks: 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns for Marshawn Lynch. My thinking: What are they gonna do, let Tarvaris throw it?


St. Louis Rams: Lance Kendricks is a top-10 fantasy tight end. My thinking: Did you see him this preseason? The Rams love him. And so do I.


Baltimore Ravens: 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns for Anquan Boldin. My thinking: He's the best receiver they have and now Lee Evans will help stretch the field.


Cincinnati Bengals: Under 800 rushing yards for Cedric Benson. My thinking: Ever seen 11 men in the box? Because I think Benson's about to.


Cleveland Browns: 3,300 yards, 20 total TDs, 250 yards rushing for Colt McCoy. My thinking: Slightly less than what Josh Freeman put up last year, I just sort of like McCoy. He's gutty.


Pittsburgh Steelers: Over the second half of the season, Isaac Redman is a top-20 fantasy running back. My thinking: Rashard Mendenhall succumbs to the Curse of 370 (playoff edition).


Chicago Bears: Under Mike Martz for a second year, Jay Cutler has an even worse statistical season than last season. My thinking: Was my bold prediction last year and it came true. Why not double down?
Detroit Lions: See Stafford above. All in on the Lions this year.


Green Bay Packers: Jermichael Finley will be the No. 1 tight end in fantasy. My thinking: Antonio Gates' foot is still an issue and Dallas Clark could very well have Kerry Collins throwing to him all season.


Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin has 1,300 total yards. My thinking: They're gonna do everything possible to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, including snapping it directly to him.


Houston Texans: Arian Foster finishes outside the top 10 of fantasy running backs. My thinking: Going against history with a bad hammy is a tough task.


Indianapolis Colts: Double-digit scores for Delone Carter. My thinking: What are they gonna do, let Kerry throw it? Or worse, give it to Donald Brown?


Tennessee Titans: 1,300 yards and 13 scores for Kenny Britt. My thinking: I love Kenny Britt. I just do.


Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew finishes outside the top 10 of fantasy running backs and has the worst statistical year of his career since his rookie season. My thinking: See Benson, Cedric.


Atlanta Falcons: Under 500 yards for Tony Gonzalez. My thinking: He had only 656 last year, so it's not even that bold. Unless you owned him last year, you don't realize how much he's fallen off.


Carolina Panthers: 10 touchdowns for Greg Olsen. My thinking: Tight end-friendly coach, offensive coordinator and a young quarterback looking for a big target in the red zone.


New Orleans Saints: 14 touchdowns for Mark Ingram. My thinking: They run a lot more in the red zone than you realize and if he stays healthy and gets all the carries (no guarantee on either), this offense scores enough that it could happen.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LeGarrette Blount rushes for 1,500 yards. My thinking: Was third in the NFL in rushing yards over the final eight games last season and still has the "something to prove" chip on his shoulder.


And my final bold prediction? Despite explaining the premise of "Love/Hate," there will still be people every week who don't understand the concept. I know. Not that bold.


But here we are, back yet again for another year of Love/Hate. For those who have never read it before or don't remember, this is my weekly column about players I am higher ("love") or lower ("hate") on than the rest of my fellow rankers. For where I view specific players in comparison to every other player, please check out my weekly rankings, published Wednesday and updated Friday.


That's another way of saying "Hey, don't use this purely as a start/sit column." Just because I have Rex Grossman as a love this week and Josh Freeman as a hate does not mean I would sit the Buc for the Washington QB. It does mean, however, that I have Freeman just outside my top 10 this week (all other rankers have him as a must-start) and that, while my fellow analysts don't have Grossman in their top 25, I have him at 20, making him a decent flyer in a two-QB league. Again, always check the rankings, think about the context and use the information to make the best possible decision.


By the way, for Love/Hate this year, I am trying to decide if I should base it off where I differ the most from my other rankers or if I should do it based on where I differ the most from season ranks. Like, if I have a guy who is the 20th-highest scoring RB for the year but have him at 10 that week, he'd be a "love." I've put a poll up on my Facebook page, so please vote. And with that, here we go.



Week 1 Players I Love:

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles (No. 1 in my ranks, average No. 4 by other rankers): All. In.


Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (7, 11): Stafford should have a good game here. Or, should I say, as Bill Simmons joked on my B.S. Report appearance, Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy should have a good game here. That should be his full name. Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy. Anyway, the Bucs had one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL last year (only one team had fewer sacks), so we'll see if they fixed that this season. I expect lots of time for Stafford to throw out of the shotgun in this one and for him to have a big day.


Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (8, 11): I actually thought I was low on Romo, what with the Jets and all. Turns out I'm highest on him. I love the Cowboys this year and while I don't have Romo in my top six like I did in my preseason ranks, I also think, Jets or no Jets, he's a stud and Week 1 is way too early to bench your studs. I just can't see recommending benching him in a standard league, which is what two of my fellow rankers are suggesting by ranking him outside the top 10.


Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (20, NR): Again, only for deeper two-QB leagues, but he did have over 300 yards and two scores against the Giants last season. New York's defense is really banged up, the Redskins are going to have to throw in this game (they'll be down and the Redskins were fourth in pass attempts last year to begin with) and well, um ... that's all I got. What do you want from me? He's Rex Grossman.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots (17, 23): Business is booming for law firms in Miami. Including The Law Firm. See what I did there? Ah, it's the first week. I'm still warming up. Anyway, at least 80 total yards and a score in each game against Miami last year, expect another score and 100 yards as the Dolphins concentrate on stopping Tom Brady.


Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins (20, 25): I think he's a must-start, my fellow rankers think he's more of a flex play. Again, see my Grossman rationalization. Banged-up defense, high-scoring game, lotta throwing (he's their best pass-catching running back and the best in pass protection, too) and, uh, you watched the preseason right?
Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos (33, 40): Do I think the Broncos will score against the Raiders? Yes. Do I think that, under John Fox, touchdowns are more likely to be on running plays than on passing plays? Yes. Do I think that, if they are running in for a score, that it will be McGahee instead of Knowshon Moreno? Yes. Sometimes, it's that simple.


Wes Welker, WR, Patriots (19, 17): We're all high on Welker for probably the same reason. All those underneath routes add up. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Welker leads all receivers in targets 14 yards or less downfield, and his 51 such targets against the Dolphins are the most he's had against any opponent.


Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys (11, 20): Think he's a stud, and you don't bench your studs. Plus, I don't have a lot of confidence in Dallas' defense (already a bit banged up), so I think this will be a higher-scoring game than folks think.


Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots (8, 13): See Predictions, Bold, New Engand Patriots, above.


Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams (13, 20): Philly gave up the second-most points to opposing tight ends last season and I'm not convinced its linebacking corp isn't significantly any better this season. The Rams targeted Kendricks a lot in the preseason and I expect that to continue Sunday.


Denver Broncos D/ST (14, 27): Von Miller is going to be a stud and, under John Fox, this is going to be a much better defense. And at home, season opener, Monday Night Football, I like the Broncos' chances to make some big plays.


Houston Texans D/ST (10, 18): Two numbers for you here: 195 and 24. The 195 is the number of career interceptions for Kerry Collins. 24 is the number of days Kerry Collins will have been with the Colts when he makes his first start for them.


Tennessee Titans D/ST (12, 22): But only because I've seen Luck McCown play.



Week 1 Players I Hate:

Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers (11, 7): I love Freeman like he's a relative. Or a blood donor. Or a former cast member of "Beverly Hills, 90210. " But this is not an offense built for explosiveness. Freeman's fantasy value comes from his consistency and running. And this week, against the Lions, I'm not convinced he's a starter in a 10-team league. Detroit allowed just over 11 points a game in the preseason and yes, it's the preseason and all that, but I believe in the Lions' defense, especially Suh, and in the Lions' line against the Bucs' offensive line. Freeman will be running a lot, which won't be a great thing in this game. He'll be fine, but nothing special.


Eli Manning, QB, Giants (16, 9): He looked terrible this preseason (no touchdowns, under 50 percent completions), and while the Redskins are not a good football team, they do have a decent secondary. Eli had just one touchdown total in two games against the Redskins last season as the Giants ran all over Washington, and I expect a similar game plan here.


Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos (21, 14): Truthfully, I'm probably a bit too down on Orton and might raise him a notch or two in my Friday update, but the Raiders (even without Nnamdi Asomugha) have a better defense than you think. Last year, with Josh McDaniels as his coach and Orton among the hottest QBs in fantasy, he had just under 200 yards, two scores and two turnovers (13 fantasy points). Now again, no Nnamdi, but also no McDaniels. Orton will do what he does. Until I see how Orton plays in the new offense, I'm not super comfortable starting him.


Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins (37, 30): When Reggie runs into Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth, how do you think that'll go? Exactly. And Belichick knows that, meaning he'll be ready to play the outsides.


Jahvid Best, RB, Lions (28, 19): The way you run on the Buccaneers is up the middle. Guess what Best does worst? I fully admit, this one could blow up in my face; he's got that boom-or-bust potential and I like Detroit's offense in this matchup, so beware. But until I see it consistently from him, I'm nervous making him anything more than a flex play in a non-bye week, while my fellow rankers have him as a must start.


Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (38, 30): Think the Panthers get down big in this game and he won't get enough touches before then to rack up points. I also plain don't like him. But again, that's only because I owned him last year.


Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (NR, 41): See Bush, Reggie and then add "all the while, Thomas is sitting on the bench."


Mario Manningham, WR, Giants (24, 14): See Manning, Eli.


Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars (35, 29): Everyone got the memo about Luke McCown starting, right?


Braylon Edwards, WR, 49ers (45, 35): Not convinced he's 100 percent healthy, worried that Alex Smith is.


Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars (18, 8): In two games against the Titans last year, he had fewer than 40 yards receiving in each of them and a total of four fantasy points. Tennessee plays the tight end very well and I am not a fan of Luke McCown. I may have mentioned that before.


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons (20, 13): The Bears allowed just two touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season and Gonzo is now just the fourth-best option on that offense.


And there you have it, kids. Love/Hate for Week 1 is in the books. Be sure to check out Fantasy Football Now this Sunday on ESPN2 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
 

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Analyzing Week 1's injury report

Stephania Bell

This is it! The final designation for injured players is on our doorstep for Week 1 of the NFL season. Each week, this blog entry will be dedicated to looking at the players who appear on the official Friday NFL injury report and how their status may have an impact on your fantasy teams.


A primer for those new to the game: Injury reports provide clues to a player's status for eager fantasy owners. The NFL requires teams to submit injury reports several times per week, identifying the body part that is involved in the injury. Early in the week, these reports will indicate whether a player who has some level of injury is not practicing, is limited in practice or is a full participant. On Fridays, all players on the injury report are assigned one of the following designations by their teams: probable, questionable, doubtful or out.


The explanation for each designation is as follows:


Probable (P): This designation indicates that a player has a greater than 50 percent chance of playing. Most players listed here are expected to play, barring a setback between the Friday injury report and kickoff.


Questionable (Q): This is the fantasy owner's most dreaded player designation. It means a player's status is on the fence and that there is a 50-50 chance he'll be on the field come game time. However, as fantasy owners have come to learn, many teams utilize the questionable designation for any player with a hint of injury. Whether a player ends up active often comes down to a game-time decision based on how he performs during warmups, so it is important for fantasy owners to check status reports leading up to the game.


Doubtful (D): The doubtful designation means a player has less than a 25 percent chance of playing that week. Rarely does a guy labeled as doubtful end up playing unless he experiences a major turnaround before game time. Fantasy owners who need to make roster adjustments before game time can feel fairly confident about sitting a player listed as doubtful.


Out: This is the easy one. The guy's definitely not playing Sunday. As painful as it might be to see this designation next to a player on your fantasy roster, at least you know in advance of the game that he's sitting out and can plan accordingly.


Each week in the Saturday blog, we will run down a list of key fantasy players, by position, who appear in the Friday injury report and analyze their chances for playing Sunday. The primary fantasy positions are covered (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), and this year, a few additional notables at both offensive and defensive positions will be added to the list. We'll cover the players listed as "Out" at the end of the blog as well.


Good luck in Week 1, everyone! May your players stay healthy and win for you.


Quarterbacks



Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs, rib (P):
Cassel suffered what the team referred to as a rib injury in the Chiefs' preseason finale. Any injury to the rib cage area makes it painful to do just about any movement, and performance often comes down to pain management. It appears Cassel is managing any discomfort he might have pretty well, considering he was a full participant in practice throughout the week. The probable designation virtually ensures he will play.


Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings, right wrist (P):
McNabb is bound to have various aches and pains on a weekly basis at this stage of his career. Fantasy owners may remember last year (or may choose to forget) when McNabb often appeared on the injury report and may have missed practice time but played anyway. That appears to be the case here as well. A bruised wrist, suffered in a late preseason game, did not keep him out of practice, and it won't keep him off the field.


Running Backs



Arian Foster, Houston Texans, hamstring (Q):
Foster's status is shaping up as one of the most dreaded in fantasy: game-time decision. Foster did not formally participate in practice all week but did do running on the side, increasing the intensity of his workouts as the week progressed. Coach Gary Kubiak told reporters Friday that Foster "went extremely hard in his rehab and took a big step forward," while acknowledging the final decision would be made before the game.


For his part, Foster indicated the hamstring was feeling better even with the harder workouts, yet he seemed to foreshadow a scenario where he could sit out the first week. According to the Houston Chronicle, Foster said: "The coaches and I both know ... if you rush back a hamstring it's going to bite you again, and it's going to keep biting you." Considering the Texans have depth at the running back position and will be facing a Colts team without quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, it would not be surprising if Foster sits. If Foster does not go, Derrick Ward is in line to get the start with Ben Tate available off the bench.


Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins, hamstring (Monday night):
Thomas injured his hamstring in practice Wednesday and was held out Thursday as a result. Another result of the injury, according to the Miami Herald, was the Dolphins' re-signing of Larry Johnson, cut just days earlier. Thomas was improved enough to participate on a limited basis Friday but given that the team plays Monday night against New England, it is too soon to know whether he will be able to go. (There is no official designation required yet for teams playing Monday night.) Reggie Bush is likely to see more action, anyway, and the Monday night factor combined with the injury makes Thomas a risky play.


Kahlil Bell, Chicago Bears, knee (P):
Given that Marion Barber has been ruled out for this week's contest with a calf injury, Bell is the definitive backup to Bears starting running back Matt Forte. The expectation is that Forte will get the bulk of the work, but the situation certainly makes Bell's health status more notable. Bell reportedly sprained his ankle in the Bears' final preseason game -- although the official NFL report says knee -- but has practiced fully all week and is expected to be available to play.


Wide Receivers



Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks, shoulder (D):
Fantasy owners can take a big clue here that Rice will not play this weekend. The doubtful tag is rarely used, and when it is, it typically follows that the player will not suit up. Although specifics are scarce, the Seattle Times notes that Rice hurt his shoulder during a one-on-one drill in training camp. He has been up and down with the injury since but has not practiced since late August. This will be worth monitoring closely next week.


Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts, foot (Q):
Collie has been bothered somewhat by a foot ailment for a few weeks, but it has not been enough to keep him out of practice. Collie practiced fully each day this week, a good indicator that this is not serious, and despite the questionable tag, he is expected to play. Naturally, fantasy owners should double check the pregame inactive reports to be sure.

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys, hamstring (P):
Austin suffered a hamstring strain in mid-August, and the Cowboys have carefully controlled his activity ever since. Even this week, he was kept to limited practice, but it appears much of the limitation was proactive in nature, guarding against a setback before the opener. Austin is expected to play, and while there is no way of ever knowing just how healthy a hamstring is until it's tested, the probable designation is a good sign.


Santonio Holmes, New York Jets, illness (P):
The "illness" that has Holmes on the injury report does not appear too severe, since he practiced in full Friday. The probable tag tells us that the Jets expect to have him on the field Sunday night.


Plaxico Burress, New York Jets, ankle (P):
Burress sprained his ankle early in camp, but it hasn't kept him off the practice field this week. He is expected to play Sunday night.


Derrick Mason, New York Jets, knee (P):
The veteran Mason is bound to appear on the injury report regularly, but we know from his Baltimore days that he shows up on Sundays. After practicing fully all week, he is expected to do the same again for the Jets.


Steve Breaston, Kansas City Chiefs, hamstring, (P):
One of the things we don't like to see is a late addition to the injury report, which Breaston was this week. He was held to limited practice Friday but is listed as probable, so the presumption is that this is not serious. Still, it does at least raise an eyebrow as to how well he'll be able to run Sunday.


Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons, thigh (P):
White suffered a bruised thigh in a preseason game, hence the injury note. That injury happened before the preseason game where he amassed 100 yards, so there's no major concern. He practiced fully all week and is expected to start Sunday.


Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns, foot (P):
Massaquoi suffered a small fracture in his left foot, which limited him in the preseason, but this week he has been a full participant in practice each day. The probable tag tells us the Browns plan on having him available.


Steve Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, knee (P):
Smith underwent a microfracture surgery in the offseason and moved from the Giants to the Eagles in August. It seemed unlikely coming off this procedure that Smith would be available early on, but his activity has increased recently. The Eagles strongly hint at him being active, designating him as probable, but it seems unlikely he would see extended playing time this soon.


Patrick Crayton, San Diego Chargers, ankle (Q):
Crayton underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his ankle recently and did not officially practice in the latter half of the week. The San Diego Union-Tribune reports he is unlikely to play.


Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts, hamstring (Q):
Gonzalez has dealt with numerous injuries over the past two years, so an early hamstring issue does not help his cause. He practiced on a limited basis all week, but it's unclear just how much action he sees even if he plays.


Tight Ends



Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins, knee (Q):
Cooley had offseason arthroscopic surgery on his knee and dealt with persistent swelling during camp. A visit to Dr. James Andrews led to a decrease in activity to allow the knee some recovery time. Cooley remains optimistic that he will play but acknowledges the pain is likely to be there throughout the year. That's concerning.


As for this week, Cooley was limited daily in practice. Although coach Mike Shanahan told the Washington Post that Cooley was "making strides each day," he indicated a decision would not be made as to his status for the game until the weekend. Even if he plays, Cooley is clearly not 100 percent.


Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings, hamstring (P):
Shiancoe battled a hamstring issue throughout training camp, but he was a full participant in practice this week. Shiancoe told 1500ESPN.com he was "about 100 percent," but it's worth noting that this is not his first round of hamstring injuries. And he has yet to test it in a game. It appears he will play Sunday, and the hope is that he gets through the game without a setback.


Benjamin Watson, Cleveland Browns, hip (P):
Watson dealt with a concussion in early August and lately has been working to overcome a hip ailment. He managed to put in a full practice Friday and, with the probable designation, appears on track to play.


Kevin Boss, Oakland Raiders, knee (Monday night):
Boss took a helmet to his left knee in the preseason game against the 49ers and has not practiced since. It certainly does not appear he'll be ready to join the team on Monday night.


Other notables:



Jeff Otah (T), Carolina Panthers, knee (Q):
Otah has certainly had his share of leg injuries, and he finds himself on the injury bubble again. He did not practice Friday, but according to the Shelby Star, this was a precautionary move and coach Ron Rivera said "without a doubt" Otah would play. Ongoing swelling could present a problem, but it appears, barring a late setback, that the Panthers expect him to be active.


Justin Tuck (DE), New York Giants, neck (Q):
Tuck suffered a stinger in a preseason game against the Jets and has been up and down since. After not practicing Thursday, he put in limited work Friday, but it appears he will be a game-time decision. Given how much the neck has limited him in the past couple of weeks, it would not be a complete surprise if he sits this one out.


Darrelle Revis, New York Jets, hip (P):
Revis strained a hip flexor during the preseason but has insisted that it is no big deal. Last year, a hamstring kept him out at the start of the season, but it does not appear that will be the case this time. Revis practiced fully all week and is listed as probable for the Sunday night matchup against the Cowboys.


DeMeco Ryans (LB), Houston Texans, elbow/ankle (P):
Ryans suffered a bruised elbow during the preseason but believes it is not a major issue, nor is the Achilles on which he had surgery last year. To his point, Ryans has practiced fully all week. He is expected to play, although how much action he sees is uncertain.


Out



This space is intended for a list of key fantasy players (not including those who have been moved to injured reserve status) who are officially listed as "Out" for the upcoming game.


Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts, neck: Manning will be out for several months after undergoing a cervical fusion.


Marion Barber, RB, Chicago Bears, calf: Barber, often the victim of leg injuries, is out with a calf strain for at least this week.


Osi Umenyiora, DE, New York Giants, knee: Umenyiora underwent meniscus surgery and is expected to miss at least this week, perhaps longer.


LaRon Landry, S, Washington Redskins, hamstring: An Achilles injury from last season compounded by a hamstring injury during preseason workouts is not a good combination. The recovery process is going slowly and it is unclear when Landry will return.


Be sure to check out "Fantasy Football Now," Sundays on ESPN2 at 11:30 a.m. ET, and "Fantasy Surround" on ESPN.com starting at 10 a.m. ET Sunday for last-minute inactives, rankings, injury impact and more.
 

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The sneaky pickups heading into Week 1
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Eric Karabell

I'm a planner. Ask the people that know me, from family to friends to co-workers. Not only do I have a pretty good idea what I'm going to do today, but also tomorrow, next week and perhaps even Oct. 17. And that's the way a good fantasy owner -- no matter the sport -- should be. Of course, you're caught up in who to choose in your flex position this first week -- I can help with that! -- and possibly a free-agent defense to replace your current option … but have you started thinking about Week 2? What about Week 10?


Nope, this isn't another Peyton Manning blog entry! But by Friday, my preliminary fantasy lineups are set -- ya know, in case we lose power again for a day or two -- and it's a good time to look ahead to future weeks. There are free agents out there who could be very relevant, not necessarily Michael Vick/Peyton Hillis critical, like last season, but perhaps to the level of Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount. The purpose of this weekly Friday blog entry isn't to stuff more information about the coming weekend in your head; it's to find the potential Blount types who can help you later. In fact, last season before Week 5, Blount was my choice for sneaky pickup, and that worked out well. After all, he had six carries for 27 yards at the time. From Weeks 7-17, he racked up 191 carries for 977 yards. So let's think ahead now to some players who might not necessarily be of worth this weekend, but rather down the line. If you have a bench spot -- or two -- available, and agree there's potential for future fantasy relevance, take a chance before they surprise us with big performances and everyone knows about them. Green Bay Packers rookie wide receiver/returner Randall Cobb is a perfect example; he put on a show Thursday night and is owned in just 2.3 percent of ESPN standard leagues. I don't think he'll do this every week, but certainly by Tuesday he'll be popular. By the way, the soon-to-be-irrelevant James Jones is owned in 88.2 percent of leagues. Probably a topic for a different blog entry.


This week I have my eye on Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. You've probably either read about him on these pages in the past few weeks or seen highlights of the diminutive speedster from Central Michigan who led everyone in the preseason with 230 receiving yards, scoring three touchdowns and averaging more than 25 yards per catch. Preseason stats are often misleading; last August the preseason leaders in receiving yards were Eric Decker, Deon Butler and Victor Cruz. During the regular season they combined for 42 receptions, 36 by Butler.
Well, things will be different for Brown, thanks to talent and opportunity. Hines Ward is closing in on Social Security -- OK, that's an exaggeration, but he is in decline -- and it's up to either Brown or Emmanuel Sanders to step up. Sanders has been hobbled by a foot injury. I seriously doubt former New York Jet Jerricho Cotchery will play a large role. Brown isn't a rookie; he caught three passes for a game-high 75 yards in the playoff win over the Baltimore Ravens -- coincidentally this week's foe -- and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Brown, owned in 16.4 percent of ESPN standard formats (down from 25 percent a week ago, which is odd), has a decent game and becomes one of next week's top free agents. The Steelers play at home against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, and there's an enticing Week 4 game in Houston against the Texans. Brown isn't likely to hurt the production of Mike Wallace, and we have Ward appropriately pegged at merely 57 catches.
Brown is but one of many sneaky names I'll be keeping an eye on. We know many of you play in far deeper leagues, so let's take a look: Quarterback: No, I don't see the next Vick lurking, but I would add Cleveland Browns leader Colt McCoy in a deeper format. Also, just to weigh in on the Redskins' quarterbacks, part of me thinks Rex Grossman is going to have an awful day -- he didn't make my top 25 quarterbacks even after removing the Packers-Saints options -- so perhaps John Beck gets his shot sooner rather than later.


Running back: Jacksonville Jaguars handcuff Deji Karim jumps to mind, and you don't have to own starter Maurice Jones-Drew to want him. Ben Tate in Houston is another name to know, but if Arian Foster is ruled out for Sunday, he'll be added that morning (even if Derrick Ward starts). I am not worried about New England Patriots touchdown-maker BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but I added Stevan Ridley in a deep league the other day, just in case. And anyone that thinks the Beanie Wells backup is Chester Taylor is probably missing the point; LaRod Stephens-Howling might see fewer touches this weekend, but if Wells were to get hurt again, I doubt Taylor would start. And while I don't think you need to act on Miami Dolphins running back Larry Johnson -- yes, he was released, then re-signed -- I can't help but wonder why everyone seems to trust Reggie Bush and a rookie to handle things.
Wide receiver: I doubt Sidney Rice plays for the Seahawks this weekend, so Ben Obomanu should. What if Rice doesn't play next week, either? See my point? Other wide receivers that are interesting to me -- and are owned in fewer than 10 percent of ESPN standard leagues -- include Greg Little in Cleveland, Steve Smith in Philly (DeSean Jackson is not a happy man), Andre Roberts in Arizona (love Kevin Kolb this season), Brandon Gibson in St. Louis (he's starting) and, while I doubt he does much this week, new Cincinnati Bengal (former Patriot) Brandon Tate. He could work his way up the depth chart quickly. Whatever you decide to do with your starting lineups and benches, best of luck and enjoy the weekend!
 

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Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends plummet in value

The possible season-ending loss of Peyton Manning not only hurts Manning's owners, but all of Indianapolis' fantasy players.
No quarterback or player means as much to his team as Manning. The Colts' offense downgrades from one of the NFL's best to one of the weakest. Since the news broke that he will be missing the opener to his latest injury developments, Manning has dramatically dropped from fourth to 12th to No. 30 in my quarterback draft rankings. All of his receivers are significantly hurt by his absence.
His top receiver Reggie Wayne falls from a No. 1 fantasy wideout to a low-end No. 2 fantasy starter; Pierre Garcon drops from a second starter to a third starter; and Austin Collie dips from a third fantasy wideout to a reserve. Dallas Clark falls from one of the top three tight ends to eighth.
Joseph Addai was already in decline after last year's disappointing season. He drops further from a top 20 running back to a third fantasy starter. Addai will likely see fewer scoring opportunities and less running room without Manning.
Adam Vinatieri falls from a top-12 kicker to a top 20 one with the expectation that the Colts will score much fewer touchdowns. Whether Indianapolis will create enough field-goal chances is questionable.
Without a strong offense, the Colts defense continues to slide to No. 26 in my fantasy rankings. It won't have the luxury of a big lead and receive the necessary opportunities to be aggressive in producing sacks and turnovers against opposing team's passing attacks.
Manning's replacement, Kerry Collins, is only worth claiming if Manning's owners need a quarterback. He still needs to learn the offense and hasn't had enough time to establish a rapport with the Colts' receivers. Plus, during his 16-year career, Collins wasn't a proficient fantasy star quarterback. He's never reached 4,000 passing yards and or thrown for more than 22 touchdowns. In fact, he's reached 20 passing scores only three times.
Of note, Manning has achieved 4,000 passing yards 11 times in 13 seasons, has never passed for fewer than 26 touchdowns and has attained 30-plus touchdowns six times.
At age 38, Collins may no longer have the strength, skills and endurance to turn into a productive weekly fantasy starter. Additionally, as an immobile quarterback, he's prone to significant injuries if the Colts continue to pass as frequently as they did with Manning. Collins, however, could improve his stats as the season progresses if he can establish a rapport with the Colts' receivers.
 

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Week 1 Instant Impressions

Temper expectations on Newton; Tate, Bryant look solid at times


By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com


• The Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton looked better than even his staunchest supporter had any right to expect. And I am not his staunchest supporter. There's no question he made throws I didn't think he could make, and the chemistry he has already with Steve Smith is palpable. But please, please, please don't get too carried away. Newton threw to his first read an alarming number of times, often regardless of whether he was covered. And more importantly, the Arizona Cardinals' defense is putrid. I mean, putrid. CB Patrick Peterson, the No. 5 overall pick in April's draft, was thrown at more than a dunking-booth attendant, and Kerry Rhodes couldn't catch a cold. For me, this story is less about whether you're starting Newton going forward (you're not, not yet) than it is about using Rex Grossman against the Cardinals in Week 2.


• In Arian Foster's absence, Derrick Ward was given the first three carries for the Houston Texans on Sunday, but for the rest of the first half he split looks with the more talented Ben Tate. Ward saved his fantasy day with a touchdown but sprained an ankle and didn't play after halftime of the blowout win over the Indianapolis Colts. In a garbage half, Tate carried it 14 more times for 61 yards and lost a fumble. There's no early word on whether Foster will play in Week 2, and Ward's injury doesn't sound serious. I'm tempted to say that this is going to be a weird week-to-week workload situation almost regardless of who plays. I think you'd have to favor a healthy Foster, but Tate looked good enough that he's going to get used.


• I take issue with Michael Vick's statement that he "play(ed) lights-out," but anyone who drafted him in the first round can't be overly disappointed with 22 fantasy points in standard ESPN leagues. Still, the question with Vick wasn't really about his ability (note, though, that he didn't rush for a TD), but rather his staying power. Well, the Rams hit Vick 11 times Sunday (leading to one fumble), and that doesn't include his rush attempts. Some of the shots Vick took were awful. I don't worry any less that the future holds another injury for him.


• Buried under Tony Romo's fourth-quarter meltdown against the New York Jets and Dez Bryant slowing down after his impressive first quarter (three catches for 71 yards and a score, followed by zero catches the rest of the game) is that the Jets' defense changed its plan of attack against the Dallas Cowboys after Bryant's strong start. Darrelle Revis began the game on Miles Austin, but after Bryant scored a 3-yarder over Antonio Cromartie, the Jets switched. Bryant bruised his leg on a punt return and couldn't run well thereafter, so that injury will be something that bears watching. But when a defense changes its focus because a receiver looks so dominant? Time to pay attention. I still feel good about preferring Bryant over Austin this year.

• Boy, was I wrong about the Colts. I still thought they'd be able to score 21 points, even if I didn't pick them to win their opener against the Texans. But Kerry Collins was under siege, and the chicken-and-egg question (would Peyton Manning have suffered such pressure, or do defenses automatically back off against him?) doesn't matter much. The fact is Collins looked shaky whenever a defender got near him. I'm guessing Indy will still roll with Collins next week against the Cleveland Browns, but how can you not downgrade all their offensive weapons?


• We probably saw the very worst of LeGarrette Blount for the season, but I think he'll get close to those same depths a few more times this season. Is he as worthless as five carries for 15 yards indicates? Of course not. Don't drop him, for heaven's sake. However, this was always the concern with him: Blount can't pass block and can't catch it, which means when Tampa Bay falls behind, he's not on the field. Earnest Graham played tons more snaps than Blount in the second half Sunday and out-touched Blount 9-to-1 during that time. In games in which the Bucs are competitive, no problem, Blount will play loads. But that's the reason you downgrade guys such as Blount who don't play in passing situations. There will be games like this.


• So much for Josh McDaniels instantly upgrading the St. Louis Rams offense, eh? Sam Bradford threw for 188 yards and was sacked four times, and no Rams receiver had more than 50 yards. Mike Sims-Walker did his typical MSW routine and had one catch for five yards, and Danny Amendola is potentially out for the season with a dislocated elbow. Plus Bradford hurt a finger and had to come out of the game. Even if Bradford's injury is minor, though, I'm not surprised. I've said it before and I'll say it again: His apprenticeship in a dink-and-dunk offense didn't prepare Bradford to be a downfield stud right away. There will be good games. The Philadelphia Eagles are tough. But the Rams don't have the weapons to create a Brandon Lloyd the way McD did for the Denver Broncos last year. This will be a slow year of incremental advances for Bradford.


• Even if Sidney Rice makes it back soon for the Seattle Seahawks (no sure thing as the team evaluates the shoulder injury he suffered in the preseason), Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers re-emphasized the notion that Tarvaris Jackson is a diminishing tide that sinks all boats. The Seahawks offensive line is terrible, and Jackson is inaccurate. Mike Williams, Zach Miller and Marshawn Lynch should be nowhere near your starting lineup right now. And I'm not yet fooled by undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin, a diminutive slot guy who was Andrew Luck's favorite target at Stanford last year and who managed a 55-yard TD. But if Baldwin and the rest of the Seahawks play their cards right, they may get to catch passes from Luck real soon.


• Thanks for playing, Nate Kaeding. The preseason No. 1 kicker in fantasy may have torn an ACL on the opening kickoff of the San Diego Chargers-Minnesota Vikings game. That brings new meaning to the phrase "kicker instability," doesn't it?
 

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Four Downs: How good is Bills offense?
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Eric Karabell

I had some concerns about the Kansas City Chiefs' passing game for this season, as I'm not the biggest Matt Cassel fan to start with, but I thought the team would still be able to put up decent numbers in Week 1 at home against the beleaguered Buffalo Bills. Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and awesome running back Jamaal Charles should have been productive Sunday. But they weren't.


Instead, the Bills were the ones putting on the show, winning 41-7 behind quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's four touchdown passes, two of them to a tight end few know about and another to exciting wide receiver Steve Johnson, and running back Fred Jackson's 100 rushing yards, which most figured Charles would do.
The Bills don't get a ton of fantasy love. Johnson and Jackson are the only Bills owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard fantasy leagues. Johnson was wisely active in 61.5 percent of leagues for Week 1, but Jackson was at 25.1 percent, meaning he didn't start in three-quarters of ESPN leagues. C.J. Spiller was a huge bust as a rookie, and largely forgotten in 2011 drafts until after the 10th round. Fitzpatrick wasn't drafted as a top-20 quarterback, and the Chiefs figured to present a tough challenge for him. And if I had told you someone named Scott Chandler would deliver 18 standard fantasy points this weekend, chances are you would have asked me what team that guy was on. I still don't think Fitzpatrick is someone to rely on in fantasy, though he did have periods of relevance last season. Fitzpatrick actually had a pair of four-touchdown games in 2010, in road tilts at Baltimore and Cincinnati, so he has done this before. But Fitzpatrick struggled in his final five games last season, with more interceptions than touchdown passes, performance more in line with his skills. It's possible he and Johnson can be more consistent this season -- Johnson also didn't do much the final six weeks -- but for now I'm not willing to change my mind on the quarterback. Johnson will remain safely tucked among my top-20 wide receivers.


What moved the needle for the Bills this weekend was Jackson rushing for 112 yards and this new tight end hitting the fantasy market. Jackson is already universally owned, and he reached 100 rushing yards three times last season, but he likely pushed himself into your flex position thoughts, and I can't say that's a mistake. Spiller scored, but the score was 34-7 by that point. Jackson is far safer.
As for Chandler, I'll play spoiler and tell you the Iowa product, who has bounced around since being drafted in 2007 and had caught one pass in his career before Sunday, won't do this again. But a year ago at this time we were pretty skeptical about Jacksonville Jaguars veteran Marcedes Lewis. He caught two touchdown passes in Week 1 of 2010 and remained relevant all season. Chandler is 6-foot-6 and known as a strong blocker, but the Bills cut his main competition and he ended up with five catches for 63 yards and two scores Sunday. Don't call him a fantasy starter yet, not when there are 20 tight ends I still recommend more, but in a deep league, why not add him and see?
And now, here are a few other things from Sunday's games that interested me for fantasy. The good, the bad and the ugly, if you will. (Speaking of good, Carolina Panthers Cam Newton and Steve Smith are discussed in a separate blog entry.) Second down: Last season's stud running back was Arian Foster, and early Sunday morning he was ruled out for the Texans' enticing matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. It was a shame, of course, but at least Foster's owners were well aware this could happen, so hopefully they sat him. However, the guy many expected to lead the Houston Texans in rushing last season, Ben Tate, put on quite the show Sunday. Tate, who missed his 2010 rookie season because of a broken leg and torn ankle ligaments, rushed 24 times for 116 yards and a touchdown versus the Colts. Derrick Ward started the game, but he left early after rolling his ankle (he scored a touchdown as well). I feel it's obvious that Tate has the brighter future, but if Foster misses Week 2 as well, it's premature to make Tate a top-20 running back. The Colts are just brutal against the run, yet again. I would add Tate this week over Ward, but I still think Foster plays this coming week.


Third down: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount seemed a bit underrated in drafts, but he still went, on average, in the fourth round, which is starter territory. Well, on Sunday he scored only one more fantasy point than the absent Foster did. Blount was given only five carries, producing 15 yards. Earnest Graham got six carries. Fluke, or a harbinger of things to come? The Lions were up a few touchdowns on the Bucs in the third quarter, pushing Josh Freeman to throw quite a bit, but I'd call this turn of events for Blount a great opportunity to buy low on him. Blount won't leave my top-20 running backs from one bad game, because the best is yet to come. Fourth down: The St. Louis Rams passing game struggled Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, and things might not get better for a while. Quarterback Sam Bradford left the game early -- he delivered only five fantasy points -- because of a finger injury, which could be a nerve problem. It's not so much that I worry about him, but rather that his receiving options were not productive, with too many dropped passes, notably rookie tight end Lance Kendricks. Mike Sims-Walker was a no-show. Danny Amendola was busy until a gruesome elbow dislocation ended his day. We probably won't see him for a while. Brandon Gibson figures to be useful in future weeks -- assuming Bradford is the quarterback -- but it's hard to envision him cracking the top-30 wide receivers. It's a shame; Bradford deserves better. Hopefully running back Steven Jackson, who carried the ball twice before leaving because of a quad injury, doesn't miss any games. That won't help Bradford or the underwhelming wide receivers, either.
 

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