Matchups: Juicy One for Jamaal
The objective of this column is to appeal to readers willing to consider, more deeply, those factors that may or may not cause fantasy players to have favorable or unfavorable matchups. This article is not for the casual fantasy leaguer. It's for the owner looking to gain an extra edge.
24-plus hours per week go into formulation of the Matchups breakdown. I place an emphasis on statistics, re-watching of games, tendencies, injuries, and roster turnover, and will often refer to the analysis-based website Profootballfocus.com, which presents in-depth charting data for each player in the league, offensive and defensive.
This is the Matchups column's third year, and it received consistently positive reviews in the first two seasons. My goal is to continue to make it better and more accurate each year. For questions, arguments, and suggestions, contact me on my Twitter account, @evansilva.
1:00PM ET Games
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Ravens OC Cam Cameron announced in camp that Ray Rice will be his goal-line back this year, and that's going to make Rice difficult to bench even in tough matchups like this. Rice will touch the ball 20 times and probably gain between 70 and 90 total yards Sunday. With Willis McGahee vulturing all short-yardage scores last year, I recommended to sit Rice twice against the Steelers. Admittedly hampered by a season-long knee injury, Rice didn't top 50 yards or find the end zone in either game. Owners need to start Rice this week. His scoring potential has increased sizably, Rice's explosiveness has returned (preseason 4.92 YPC) along with his health, and the Ravens' run blocking is much better off with Michael Oher at right tackle and Marshal Yanda at right guard.
You wouldn't have known it from last year's second-half slump, but Anquan Boldin has plenty left in the tank. The Ravens' lack of a complementary outside threat allowed defenses to double team Boldin on virtually every snap down the stretch, particularly when Boldin was lined up in the slot. Lee Evans' addition will be a difference maker for Boldin. Keep in mind that two of Boldin's biggest games (7-68, 5-118-1) came against Pittsburgh in last year’s regular season. ... Whereas Boldin shouldn't have trouble continuing to burn slot CB William Gay and LCB Bryant McFadden, Evans will match up with physical Steelers RCB Ike Taylor. Evans might hit a big play downfield, but he's a risky WR3 in this matchup. ... The Ravens don't have a third receiver, so sure-handed TE Dennis Pitta will man the slot when Boldin and Evans line up in two wide-sets. It's good news for Joe Flacco that the Ravens have depth and versatility at tight end. Pitta isn't a fantasy option, but helps Flacco qualify as a low-end QB1 this week. The Steelers' pass defense is unimposing with OLB James Harrison running on fumes after two back surgeries.
Steelers OC Bruce Arians has spoken openly of his desire to air it out this year, and he's got weapons to spread the field following Antonio Brown's August explosion and Emmanuel Sanders' quick return from foot surgeries. Neither Brown nor Sanders has earned enough snaps in the base offense to be fantasy viable yet, but these are promising developments for Ben Roethlisberger. In last year's playoffs, Roethlisberger completed 19-of-32 passes (59.4%) for 226 yards, two TDs, and no interceptions against Baltimore. The Ravens stifle the run and are breaking in two new starting corners (Cary Williams, rookie Jimmy Smith). The best way to attack them is through the air. Expect Big Ben to approach 35 attempts as a rock-solid QB1. He's a better start than Flacco.
Mike Wallace is coming off a quiet preseason (3 catches, 19 yards), but he's a must-play against a Baltimore secondary starting as many as three new defensive backs. (SS Tom Zbikowski has been pushed by Bernard Pollard, who's a disaster in coverage.) Wallace finished as the No. 5 fantasy receiver in 2010, just his second NFL season. He'll be fine. ... Heath Miller will remain a sixth lineman this year, blocking his tail off and rarely running pass routes. He's barely on the TE2 radar. ... Rashard Mendenhall is impossible to bench because he's always such a good bet to score, but yardage expectations should be limited this week. In his three Ravens matchups last year, including playoffs, Mendenhall averaged 70 total yards. At the same time, he dropped four TDs on Baltimore and averaged 24 touches a game. ... Hines Ward offers little upside as a WR3, but he's still a better bet for receptions and targets than Brown and Sanders. You could do worse.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Atlanta @ Chicago
Marion Barber's rejuvenated preseason (4.6 YPC) was worrisome for Matt Forte owners hoping their second-round pick would get goal-line carries in Chicago. Barber is expected to miss Week 1 with a calf injury, setting up Forte for a heavier workload. He'll play more snaps on third down, and get the carries in scoring position. Squaring off with an undersized Atlanta front four, Forte is a strong RB1 play and a solid bet for a touchdown. ... Whereas the Falcons project to get pushed around against the run, they'll be awfully difficult to throw against. RE John Abraham and LE Ray Edwards are double-digit sack threats on the edges, and both DTs (Peria Jerry, Jonathan Babineaux) can collapse the pocket on the interior. This will give a Bears offensive line that can't pass protect fits. Jay Cutler and most Chicago pass catchers should be on fantasy benches. LCB Brent Grimes and RCB Dunta Robinson quietly form one of the NFL's better cover duos outside.
The Bears' wideout with the best Week 1 matchup is Earl Bennett. Bennett is a situational, No. 3 receiver, but his primary opponent in coverage will be burnable Atlanta nickel back Chris Owens. Whereas Pro Football Focus rated both Grimes and Robinson as top-22 cover corners last season, Owens would've ranked in the 90s had he played enough snaps to qualify. A crisp route runner, Bennett will get open against him. ... Roy Williams and Devin Hester would be fourth and fifth receivers on a team that didn't base its lineup on favorites and contracts. Consider Bears wideouts non-factors until Johnny Knox overtakes Williams. Williams is the starter for now.
Chicago will continue to field one of the better defenses in football, at least until one of their aging stars gets hurt. The Bears stayed unsustainably healthy last year. 29 1/2 years old to open the season, Michael Turner is worth an RB2 start based strictly on the fact that he gets goal-line work for an offense that will move the chains. Clearly losing a step after offseason groin surgery and an NFL-leading carry total in two of the past three seasons, Turner is averaging a paltry 3.52 YPC on his last 139 rushing attempts, including playoffs and preseason. Of course, he's got seven TDs over that span. Just be aware that you'll take a gut-punch in your fantasy matchup if Turner doesn't find the end zone. He offers little yardage upside barring a monster workload and doesn't catch passes. Turner was someone to avoid in fantasy drafts outside of touchdown-heavy leagues.
Roddy White has 13 catches for 168 yards and two touchdowns in his past two meetings with the Bears. ... We covered Julio Jones' impressive preseason extensively in August. Jones and White have played on both sides of the formation, so they'll likely square off evenly with RCB Charles Tillman and LCB Tim Jennings. From a matchup perspective, the 5-foot-8, 185-pound Jennings is the Bears' corner to target. Jones has seven inches and 35 pounds on him. He's a recommended WR3. ... With Turner running out of gas and Chicago returning a top-2 run defense, the Falcons may have to throw to move the sticks in this one. Matt Ryan attempted a whopping 42 first-half passes in Atlanta's third preseason game, further confirming the team's plan to throw the ball more this season. Ryan won't have 80 attempts a game in the regular season, but he could easily approach 40 against Chicago. Start 'em. ... Declining at age 35, Tony Gonzalez is a TE2. Slot receiver Harry Douglas is a WR4, but will be a fantasy starter if Jones or White goes down.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Bears 14
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Bengals-Browns has Vegas' lowest Week 1 over-under at 35.5 points. You'll want to avoid this game where possible. The lone solid start on Cleveland's side is Peyton Hillis. Poised for a monster workload to open the season, Hillis will dominate early-down carries ahead of Montario Hardesty, and take on increased passing-down snaps following Brandon Jackson's year-ending toe injury. It's still fair to be concerned with Hillis' ability to sustain effectiveness and health on so many carries with a contact-inviting run style. On the bright side, it doesn't hurt that the Bengals' defense looks less stout following run-stuffing WLB Keith Rivers' (elbow) placement on PUP and undersized DT Geno Atkins' rise to the starting lineup.
Colt McCoy finished preseason 28-of-46 (60.9%) for 320 yards (7.0 YPA), four touchdowns, and one pick. The completion rate and perhaps the yards-per-attempt can carry over into real games, but the TD ratio won't. As much as McCoy's stock has risen since camp opened, he's just a QB2. The Bengals' pass defense will at least be league average with a formidable pass rush (Carlos Dunlap, Atkins, Michael Johnson) and solid corner play (Leon Hall, Nate Clements). ... Mohamed Massaquoi is listed as the Browns' flanker, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a five-way rotation of Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Greg Little, slot man Jordan Norwood, and Joshua Cribbs. Avoid Cleveland wideouts until some semblance of playing time is established. ... Evan Moore is the Browns' tight end to own, but he and Ben Watson could just as easily cancel each other out. It's a week to wait on Cleveland pass catchers, see how they're used, and perhaps start one in Week 2.
I mentioned that this game projects as the lowest scoring of Week 1. Like on Cleveland's side, there is only one surefire fantasy starter for Cincinnati. Cedric Benson, fresh out of jail, will be the centerpiece of the Bengals' offense and is in line for upwards of 25 carries. Throughout the preseason new OC Jay Gruden emphasized power-I formations -- prehistoric football. It's a power-running team that won't even attempt to spread out defenses. Benson's recent yards-per-carry averages indicate he's lost a step, and the loss of mauling RG Bobbie Williams to a four-game suspension certainly won't help. That said, the workload supports Benson as an RB2, and he has a good matchup against a Cleveland defense breaking in three first-time starters in the front four.
Perhaps a basic offense is the right approach with the Bengals' bevy of first-year starters, rookie QB, and scheme change. We'll take it, because it makes matchups easy to predict. A.J. Green is the Z receiver on virtually all snaps, lining up on the offensive right side. He'll meet most often with LCB Joe Haden. "He lines up to my side a lot, so it should be like the good old days," confirmed Haden this week. Haden, who flashed shutdown potential as a rookie, held Green to a scoreless 50 yards on three catches the last time they met. (Georgia-Florida watchers know A.J. struggled to get open in that game.) Green will make some big plays this year, but he's a dicey WR3. ... One preseason observation that surprised me was Jermaine Gresham's usage as strictly an old-school, in-line tight end. He mostly blocks and never lines up in the slot or out wide. ... X wideout Jerome Simpson is the third or fourth (also Jordan Shipley) option in a putrid passing attack. Move along.
Score Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 7
Indianapolis @ Houston
"I can't imagine trying to learn something as complicated as this (offense) in a short period of time," were C Jeff Saturday's comments this week when asked about Kerry Collins' readiness for the opener. Peyton Manning (neck) is out indefinitely, and Indy's offensive philosophy will shift dramatically. Top-five in pass attempts for each of the past three years, the Colts will strive for balance on offense, evidenced by this week's addition of lead blocker Chris Gronkowski (the Colts never used fullbacks before), and keeping four tailbacks on the 53-man roster. It's a bad situation all around. The Colts were built to throw first, second, and third, and run the ball as a change of pace. Joseph Addai's strengths are blitz pickup and receiving, and the line won't open holes. Even if this were a favorable matchup -- it isn't -- Addai would be a low-end RB2. ... Look for Delone Carter in change-up situations, getting 8-10 carries. He needs to be effective on limited early-season opportunities to earn a bigger role. My guess is Addai is still the favorite for goal-line work.
This would be a favorable passing-game matchup if it were still last year. Unfortunately for Colts skill players, it isn't. You didn't draft Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in the early rounds to sit them in Week 1, but Wayne is much more WR3 than WR1, and Clark drops to the 8-12 range among tight ends. Yes, it's that bad. The Colts won't throw nearly as much, and when they do, execution will dip significantly. ... The Texans' defense is a highly recommended play. Chris Wesseling ranked them in the top six for Week 1 starts, and I agree. ... In his lone preseason appearance, Collins went 5-of-10 for 45 yards, took a sack, and lost a fumble. He's not ready to play in this offense. The Colts didn't even let him work with the first-team skill players. ... With the focus now on running the ball, one of the Colts' pass catchers is going to get weeded out of the offense in favor of a blocker, probably TE Brody Eldridge. My early guess is slot receiver Austin Collie (Indy can't go four wide anymore), but it could just as easily be flanker Pierre Garcon. Avoid them both.
Anything can happen in any week, but this game is a mismatch on paper. Wayne, Clark, and Collie will look much more pedestrian in a Manning-less offense; remember, even Jacob Tamme and Blair White produced at similar levels to Clark and Collie last year. Houston should dominate time of possession, leaning on the run game while remaining aggressive with the vertical pass. I could cite a bunch of stats explaining why Arian Foster (hamstring) would be a good fantasy play, but this has quickly become a situation to avoid based on late-week reports from the Houston Chronicle and Adam Schefter. Check back with Rotoworld on Sunday morning. Should Foster miss the game, Ben Tate will be a must-start RB2 in fantasy leagues. ... Owen Daniels has regained health and TE1 status. He racked up six catches for 57 yards and a touchdown in the third preseason game.
The Colts' top three corners are Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey, and Justin Tryon. Lacey is the biggest of the group at 5-foot-10 and 177 pounds. It is hard to imagine these fellas stopping Andre Johnson (6'3/226). Only Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha can do that. ... The Texans have the top run-blocking offensive line in football, and the Colts one of the worst run defenses. With Johnson and Daniels hogging what figure to be limited targets in the passing game, Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are hardly worth fantasy roster spots, let alone Week 1 starts. ... The Texans are transitioning to a run-oriented offense under old line coach Rick Dennison. The team's pass attempts ranking fell dramatically last season despite having to play from behind so frequently due to a terrible defense. It will continue its freefall this year with the defense likely to improve exponentially under Wade Phillips. Matt Schaub is not a top-10 QB.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 10
<!--RW-->Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Some Chris Johnson owners are concerned about his Week 1 workload. I'm not. Javon Ringer's preseason hip injury has led to back "tightness," and he's questionable to be active against the Jags. The Titans have discussed adding Herb Donaldson from the practice squad to compensate, indicating legitimate concern with Ringer's health. Next on the depth chart is Jamie Harper, who performed admirably in August but is a fourth-round rookie and unlikely to receive more than 8-10 touches in his NFL debut. Once Johnson gets rolling on the first drive, the Titans' staff will have to leave him in. 24-25 carries and 5-6 catches wouldn't be surprising. The Jags finished 22nd in run defense last season and allowed the second most yards per carry. ... Jared Cook isn't a full-time player just yet, but his usage with the first-team offense increased on a weekly basis in exhibition games, and he led Tennessee in preseason targets and receptions. Cook plays in the slot and out wide, ala Jermichael Finley with similar athleticism. Fantasy owners are understandably hesitant to use Cook out of the chute, but he'll be a top-ten tight end scorer when all is said and done.
Let me know when the Jaguars are going to take their pass rush seriously. They have finished the regular season 32nd and 30th in sacks over the past two seasons, and again brought up the NFL rear with two sacks in the 2011 preseason. Matt Hasselbeck will have a clean pocket on Sunday, which should translate to plenty of deep-ball fun for Kenny Britt. Britt certainly won't face a worse secondary all year. ... Nate Washington has more of a "rapport" with Hasselbeck because of his healthy August (Britt was nagged by a hamstring pull), but it's hard to imagine using him as a WR3 in Week 1. He's the No. 4 option behind Johnson, Britt, and Cook in a balanced offense.
New starting quarterback Luke McCown has attempted 20 regular season passes as a Jaguar, so it's a pretty small sample size. Here's McCown's target distribution anyway: Marcedes Lewis (5), Mike Sims-Walker (5), Rashad Jennings (3), Mike Thomas (2), Kassim Osgood (2), Others (the remaining 3). Lewis is easily the safest bet for catches and pass targets in the Jacksonville pass-catching corps. ... The scouting report on McCown is that he's a shaky if aggressive passer, and that shows up in his 7.85 YPA over the last two preseasons. It's good news on paper for Mike Thomas, who will play outside more after focusing on the slot in his first two years. He'll run more deep routes, though I’m a bit skeptical that the new role suits Thomas’ skills. We saw Percy Harvin flunk the test when the Vikings tried something similar with him early last year. ... Jason Hill is Jacksonville's split end, but McCown hasn't completed a pass to him in his life outside of the practice field. Lock in Lewis, consider Thomas as a WR3, and pass on Hill.
It's no secret by now that Maurice Jones-Drew underwent offseason surgery in an attempt to fix a "bone-on-bone" condition in his right knee. MJD's lone preseason appearance (one 14-yard run with a huge hole, 0-yard net on his other four carries) wasn’t enough for a viable evaluation, so I'll withhold judgment until seeing Jones-Drew in a real game. You're not going to sit him in the opener, but should be concerned about what's left of his explosiveness, the offense, and possibility of re-injury. The good news is Jones-Drew will receive a huge workload with Rashad Jennings out for the year. He's also facing a banged-up Titans front four with heavy transition in terms of both system and personnel. ... With Jennings on I.R., Deji Karim is MJD's backup. He's an extremely raw talent, but 4.6 YPC on his last 53 rushing attempts in regular and preseason suggests Karim can be an explosive playmaker. He's worth stashing in all leagues behind an injury-risk starter.
Score Prediction: Titans 21, Jaguars 14
Buffalo @ Kansas City
There is one elite fantasy start in this game, and he was my No. 1-ranked player for 2011 drafts. Jamaal Charles finished the 2010 season as the No. 4 overall fantasy back despite 230 rushing attempts (14th in the league) and five rushing scores (25th in the league), and he didn't even lead his own team in carries. My bets are on Charles' talent, the Chiefs' mauling offensive line (I love new RG Jon Asamoah), AFC West run defenses, and an offense that will have to lean heavily on the ground game to move the sticks. My bet is squarely against a totally ineffective and 33-year-old Jones. The carries will be there for Charles because they will have to be. Charles has faced the Bills three times in his career, and ripped off 162 total yards per game, two touchdowns, and a 7.77 yards per carry average. And he only received two carries in one of those games.
The K.C. pass game is headed for regression this year, especially with the departure of offensive mastermind Charlie Weis, who coaxed career years out of Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn at Notre Dame before doing the same with Matt Cassel last season. Dwayne Bowe has found the end zone in both of his two career matchups with Buffalo, but the rest of the Chiefs' pass catchers can safely be avoided. Typically, teams game plan to attack the Bills with the run, which is in large part why Buffalo annually finishes high in the league's pass defense rankings. Expect a ton of Charles, some Jones, and 7-10 targets for Bowe. Steve Breaston is a waste of a roster spot this week and going forward. Drop him for a wide receiver or running back with more potential.
I believe in the Chan Gailey system, but points will be hard to come by in Buffalo this season. There isn't a less talented O-Line in football, the starting tailback is 30 1/2 years old, and there's no No. 2 receiver to speak of. At least Lee Evans commanded defensive attention on clearing routes. In the backfield, the Bills are toying with the idea of using an even timeshare in terms of overall touches. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both poor bets to get the ball more than 12-15 times, and they won't have running lanes. The Chiefs already weren't slouches against the run, and have an upgrade at nose tackle in the form of ex-Baltimore space eater Kelly Gregg. You should feel confident avoiding Jackson and Spiller as more than desperation flex plays for most of the year.
Steve Johnson has a tough matchup with shutdown LCB Brandon Flowers, but Gailey will move Johnson around enough to see snaps against the Chiefs' sub-package corners. There simply isn't another Bills receiver to command targets. In my estimation, Johnson was a bit undervalued in 2011 drafts. He'll see double teams, sure, but Gailey is smart enough to get Johnson in motion when possible. An excellent short-to-intermediate route runner, Johnson remains the ideal fit for Ryan Fitzpatrick's weak arm. Johnson is a WR2 against the Chiefs. ... Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish are expected to open the year as Buffalo's No. 2 and 3 receivers. My money is still on David Nelson emerging as the second most targeted Bill by season's end. Nelson acquitted himself well with 31 catches for 353 yards and three touchdowns as an undrafted rookie last season, and no other Bills wideout can match his size-speed combo at 6'5/220 with a 4.45 forty.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Bills 13
Philadelphia @ St. Louis
Always a fast starter, Michael Vick has a career 18:5 TD-to-INT ratio in the month of September with five more rushing scores and a 7.54 yards-per-carry average. The Rams' defense is better than given credit, but Vick is the best quarterback play in the league this week. He's exceptionally dangerous on turf. ... The sample size is admittedly small (two games), but LeSean McCoy also rips it up in a dome. He racked up 249 rushing yards and three scores on 32 indoor carries (7.78 YPC) last season, with seven receptions. The Rams are too slow to contain McCoy on the edges with 32-year-olds Ben Leber and Brady Poppinga starting at outside linebacker. ... Jeremy Maclin should eventually regain every-week starter status, but he's a wait-and-see WR3 against St. Louis after battling a mysterious illness all winter and spring, and failing to record a preseason catch.
I hope you like dome stats. In four career indoor games, DeSean Jackson averages five catches for 126 yards, with two touchdowns. Jackson will match up with Ronald Bartell for most of this one, and he's much quicker than the Rams' left corner. You'll want to start D-Jax. ... Vick spoke of throwing to Brent Celek more in the offseason, but St. Louis' tight end coverage is stout under Steve Spagnuolo. Opposing top tight ends managed just 41 catches for 490 yards in 16 games against the Rams last season, "good" for an average of under three receptions and 31 yards. They held Antonio Gates to 12 yards and Vernon Davis out of the end zone twice. The only tight ends to score on the Rams all year were Leonard Pope, Justin Peelle, and Brandon Pettigrew.
During the 2010 season, Raiders opponents attempted 470 passes. 249 were complete, but just 13 against now-Eagles RCB Nnamdi Asomugha. Brandon Gibson worked as the Rams' starting LWR all preseason, so you'll want to look elsewhere for a Week 1 sleeper. ... Slot man Danny Amendola remains the best bet for targets and catches in St. Louis' receiver corps. On Sunday, he'll square off with Eagles nickel back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. DRC was exclusively an outside corner in Arizona and is just now learning to cover the slot. ... Mike Sims-Walker hasn't cracked the starting lineup, but plays in all three-receiver sets, which will be used plenty by new coordinator Josh McDaniels. MSW will be in Asante Samuel's coverage for most of Sunday's game.
Bulky workloads should buoy Steven Jackson's value, but he's lost a significant amount of speed off his prime. S-Jax lumbered through August, failing to make defenders miss and outrunning no one. Jackson has the fourth most carries among active backs, and RBs Nos. 1-3 (Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson) are late-career role players. Still a safe bet for 20 touches, Jackson is a low-end RB2 against an Eagles front seven sputtering at linebacker and undersized on both ends. ... Sam Bradford might flirt with 35 pass attempts Sunday, but he's just a QB2 against one of the NFL's most talented pass defenses. ... Lance Kendricks generated hype by leading the Rams in preseason receiving and TDs. Philly is historically burned by tight ends, but we'd like to see the rookie block well enough to earn regular snaps before recommending him.
Score Prediction: Rams 27, Eagles 24
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Bucs GM Mark Dominik spoke Tuesday of employing "a committee approach" in the backfield to save LeGarrette Blount from "workhorse" carries. That sounds nice in theory, but Tampa is fooling itself if it believes plodding backups Kregg Lumpkin and Earnest Graham pose any danger to defenses. The Bucs need to control this game on the ground, keeping Matthew Stafford and Detroit's high-flying offense off the field. Trouble is, if Tampa falls behind, Blount won't be playing because he's not part of the passing offense. And that's the risk you took when drafting Blount: The Bucs aren't as good as their 10-6 2010 record indicated. Blount is going to really hurt you when he doesn't get 17-20 carries a game, and the Buccaneers will be behind in more of them than they were last season. Start Blount as a non-PPR RB2 and hope this one stays close.
Late in his rookie season, Mike Williams lit up the Lions for six catches, 96 yards, and a score. Detroit's pass defense will improve this year, but not enough to consider Williams less than a WR2. Williams will see Lions RCB Eric Wright in primary coverage, and Wright was one of the least effective corners in football last year. It was a confidence issue. Williams is a good test to see if it's back. ... The Bucs put training wheels on Arrelious Benn in camp after last year's ACL tear. Don't be surprised if Benn and Dezmon Briscoe rotate evenly at the "Z" receiver position to open the season. ... Kellen Winslow has lost steam in recent years, but you could do worse as a conservative TE1. He's Tampa's second safest bet for targets. ... Josh Freeman is an interesting play in a sleeper shootout game, but all season the risk with him is going to be opportunities. The Bucs ranked 23rd in pass attempts last year, helping to result in seven games under 200 passing yards for Freeman. And they've been clear that no change in offensive philosophy is forthcoming.
I spent the last few days trying to contemplate a non-injury scenario in which Stafford wouldn't tear the cover off the league this season. The Lions might have the pass-happiest offense in the NFL, no inside run threat, an absolutely loaded pass-catching corps, and literally the strongest-armed quarterback in the game. You can dismiss preseason stats all you want, but the good players tend to play good in August (Aaron Rodgers) and bad players bad (Tarvaris Jackson). Stafford went 25-of-33 (75.8%) for 395 yards (12.0 YPA), five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He took one sack in 34 dropbacks. This is going to be a dynamite fantasy quarterback. ... The Lions' backfield pecking order behind Jahvid Best has yet to be established, but for now we can probably expect 16-18 touches for Best (5-7 in the form of catches), with 8-12 carries going to some combination of Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris. We'll know more about the backup situation next week. Best is an every-week starter in PPR leagues. He's much less of a factor in non-PPR formats.
The Bucs use CB Aqib Talib to shadow opposing top wide receivers, and he is usually a matchup nightmare. Talib missed preseason and the majority of camp with a hamstring injury, however, and it's unclear if he'll be 100 percent for the opener. Lock in Calvin Johnson. ... Bucs CB Ronde Barber covers opposing split end and slot receivers, so he'll be on Nate Burleson for most of this one. Despite his age, Pro Football Focus graded Barber as a top-four corner in the league last year. Burleson doesn't have an easy matchup. ... Unlike Shaun Hill, Stafford won't key in on burly tight end Brandon Pettigrew, instead attacking defenses with vertical passes. When Stafford does check down, it will be to Burleson in the slot or Best out of the backfield. Pettigrew will be a fantasy disappointment in an offense far different than what Detroit fielded for much of last season.
Score Prediction: Lions 28, Bucs 23
<!--RW-->4:15PM ET Games
Carolina @ Arizona
Newly acquired Chester Taylor didn't begin practicing as a Cardinal until Tuesday, and poses no threat to Beanie Wells' Week 1 workload. There is even chatter that Taylor will be inactive for the game. A darkhorse to lead the league in carries this season, Wells should start quickly against a Panthers first-team defense that was gashed for 216 yards and two TDs on 38 preseason carries (5.68 YPC) by opposing first-team backs. MLB Jon Beason may play after missing all of camp with an Achilles' injury, but Carolina's linebackers aren't the problem. Wells and the Cardinals' interior line will have their way with Panthers rookie DTs Sione Fua and Terrell McClain on Sunday.
The Panthers may field the poorest cornerback depth chart in the league with Captain Munnerlyn, Josh Thomas, R.J. Stanford, and newly acquired draft bust Darius Butler behind Chris Gamble. The worst of it, however, is that Gamble's time as a viable NFL corner may be up. Benched late last season for performance (not John Fox "doghouse" reasons, as was speculated at the time), Gamble looked headed for possible revival when Ron Rivera tasked him with shadowing opposing top receivers. Gamble was subsequently torched by rookie A.J. Green for 45 yards and a touchdown in limited snaps during the third preseason game, not including another 27-yard Andy Dalton-Green hookup that was called back. Green separated with ease from Gamble all game. Larry Fitzgerald has faced Gamble and the Panthers seven times in his career, averaging eight catches for 115 yards with three touchdowns. This one could get ugly.
New coordinator Ray Horton will need to work magic this season, because the Cardinals' defense has a problematic look to it. The back end has nightmare potential with SS Adrian Wilson playing through a partially torn bicep and two first-year starters at corner. 2010 first-round disappointment Dan Williams was handed the nose tackle job unearned, and there isn't an older, slower, less effective pair of OLBs in the league than Clark Haggans and Joey Porter. Unless Horton gets his unit to overachieve, this will be a Grade-A fantasy matchup all year. ... DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rotated by possession with the first-team offense in the third preseason game. They both play on third downs, and there is no favorite for goal-line carries. Williams, the starter, projects to receive more touches and is a mid-range RB2 play. He should finish with at least 16 rushing attempts. Stewart should flirt with 15 touches, but struggled in August. He's a risky flex.
It would be unreasonable to expect Cam Newton to consistently complete passes after he finished preseason with a 42.1 completion rate. Just realize that there's a good chance Steve Smith will be consistently open on Sunday. An "X" receiver, Smith runs most of his deep routes down the left sideline, meaning he'll face off with Cardinals RCB Patrick Peterson for the majority of the game. At 219 lbs., Peterson is the heaviest corner in football. Highly explosive in and out of cuts, Smith will run circles around the hefty rookie in his first NFL start. Smitty is a boom-or-bust WR3, but this may be his most favorable matchup all season. ... Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotate at Z in Carolina's offense, with Naanee manning the slot on third down. They have favorable matchups with LCB A.J. Jefferson and slot CB Richard Marshall, but just aren't on the fantasy radar. Keep in mind Arizona's secondary going forward. ... Wilson will match up with Greg Olsen for most of this one. Unfortunately, Carolina won't score or throw much. Olsen is a blind roll of the dice as a TE1.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Panthers 17
Minnesota @ San Diego
The Minnesota secondary will have its hands full with the San Diego passing attack. The Vikings' first-team nickel defense starts 34-year-old Antoine Winfield in the slot, a real waste with Patrick Crayton not expected to play. The LCB is Chris Cook (Vincent Jackson, usually), and RCB Cedric Griffin (Malcom Floyd). Griffin has blown out both ACLs over the past two seasons, and Cook has struggled with chronic knee issues of his own. At safety, the Vikes are breaking in new starter Jamarca Sanford. It's tough to imagine this unit slowing down Philip Rivers, who ended August 31-of-45 (69%) for 377 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick. ... There wasn't a more impressive-looking receiver than V-Jax in preseason. He and Rivers picked right back up where they left off in 2009, when Jackson was the No. 12 overall fantasy wideout. Gregg Rosenthal has pegged V-Jax to lead all receivers in non-PPR scoring. I'll agree and pencil him in for a career-best PPR season.
Antonio Gates avoided the Week 1 injury report after a healthy camp, and he'll be the strongest fantasy tight end play in the league until he proves otherwise. ... Floyd went surprisingly early in drafts for a guy who benefited so much from Gates and V-Jax's 2010 absences. He will struggle for more than 5-6 targets on a weekly basis. ... We devoted a lot of preseason time to covering the Ryan Mathews-Mike Tolbert situation. I can say this with certainty: Mathews will explode if Tolbert gets injured, and you saw a glimpse of it in Week 17 last season. As is, however, Mathews is losing all goal-line and passing-down work to Tolbert. Even with this matchup improved by Vikings DT Kevin Williams' four-game suspension, Mathews is a mid-range RB2 in non-PPR leagues and only a flex consideration in PPR. The RBBC is an upside-sapping fantasy situation.
The Vikings' problematic line will likely catch up to Adrian Peterson at some point this season, but he's a lock for 25 Week 1 touches, particularly with the coaching staff talking up Peterson as a receiver. He's a no-brainer top-five running back play. San Diego has also experienced notable front-seven turnover. Three of the Chargers' starting linebackers are new, as is rookie RE Corey Liuget. This will be a tough run defense in time, but it may struggle a bit out of the chute. ... The Vikings field perhaps the least effective duo of outside receivers in the NFC. Bernard Berrian and Molasses Michael Jenkins combined for a 10.97 yards per catch average and two touchdowns last season. They both struggle to beat man coverage, so look for Percy Harvin to dominate Donovan McNabb's targets. A sleeper to catch 90 passes, Harvin was a steal in fantasy drafts.
McNabb is a clear QB2 in an offense that will focus heavily on the run, and lacks a pass-catching threat on the perimeter. An effective play-action game could translate to a nice week for McNabb here and there, but don't look for it against a Chargers team that led the league in pass defense last season and returns 3-of-4 secondary starters. The turnover is at strong safety, where Bob Sanders is an upgrade on the Paul Oliver-Steve Gregory rotation. ... The Bolts annually stink in tight end coverage, but Kyle Rudolph is a rookie and Visanthe Shiancoe missed camp with a bum hamstring. Look elsewhere for a Week 1 tight end sleeper. They will cancel each other out.
Score Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 17
Seattle @ San Francisco
An early preview to the Suck-4-Luck race, the 49ers host Seattle in what projects as an ugly, low-scoring game. Tarvaris Jackson finished the preseason 32-of-55 (58.2%) for 269 yards (4.9 YPA), one touchdown, two interceptions, and seven sacks taken. Alex Smith came pretty close to out-awfulling T-Jack by going 20-of-36 (55.6%) for 198 yards (5.5 YPA), no scores, two picks, and four sacks. The Seahawks are expected to be without Sidney Rice (shoulder), leaving Ben Obomanu to start opposite Big Mike Williams. Williams and Zach Miller will contend to lead the team in targets from an erratic quarterback. If T-Jack struggles in the first half, don't be surprised to see Charlie Whitehurst replace him at intermission. This is going to be a disaster offense.
Cohesion is integral to a zone-blocking run scheme like Seattle's, but the Seahawks didn't have a hint of it in August. LG Robert Gallery (knee) is expected to miss Week 1, the right tackle situation is up in the air, and LT Russell Okung is just now getting back from his third high ankle sprain in two years. Marshawn Lynch did nothing to ease concerns about his lack of starting-caliber talent by running six times for 10 yards (1.7 YPC) in the preseason. He isn't going to have holes, he doesn't make anyone miss, and he doesn't play on third downs. Avoid Lynch.
After an ugly start to preseason, the 49ers' O-Line got it together a bit late in August. The Niners start four former top-40 picks and added a 2009 Pro Bowler in C Jonathan Goodwin, so talent isn't the issue. They should open holes for Frank Gore. Don't be surprised to see a lopsided run-to-pass ratio out of San Francisco, leaning heavily on the former. Preseason rushing leader Kendall Hunter is screaming up the depth chart, and Jim Harbaugh needs to find ways to get him the ball. Harbaugh has a history of going extremely run-heavy, dating back to his Stanford and University of San Diego teams. Gore should easily hit 20 touches, and Hunter will probably be a hot Week 2 waiver pickup when he gets 8-12 himself. Described as a "carbon copy" of Brian Westbrook during his Philadelphia prime by NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Hunter is going to be very good.
Smith's preseason was alarming, but rookie Colin Kaepernick was far worse and should give the starter a long leash. That's good news for Vernon Davis, easily Smith's favorite target in the pass game. Davis has dropped lines of 5-70-1, 8-73, 6-111-1 in his last three meetings with Seattle. Heavy-legged Seahawks SS Kam Chancellor was projected as a linebacker by teams coming out in the 2010 draft, and Davis should have his way with Chancellor. ... Braylon Edwards will square off for most of Sunday's game with Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner, who was in the CFL last year. The Niners would be smart to pepper Browner with deep pass attempts. Edwards has a good matchup. ... Seahawks LCB Marcus Trufant is declining, but has the size and physicality to keep Josh Morgan in check. Shy away from Morgan, as he also may rotate with Michael Crabtree. Crabtree is expected to play limited snaps after missing training camp with a foot injury.
Score Prediction: 49ers 13, Seahawks 10
NY Giants @ Washington
For the price of a seventh- or eighth-round fantasy pick, you'll get more than your money's worth out of Tim Hightower this season. Hitting on all cylinders behind an offensive line that didn't miss a single training camp practice together -- critical to a zone-blocking scheme -- Hightower rang up 170 yards and a score on 25 preseason carries (6.8 YPC). Hightower faced first-team defenses of the Steelers and Ravens, so this was no fluke. And he will start hot against a Giants front seven reeling with injuries. Sixth-round pick Greg Jones has gone from third-stringer to first-team middle linebacker in a matter of four days. LE Justin Tuck, a beastly run defender, is questionable with a stinger. New starting NT Linval Joseph is 22 years old and lost his rotation partner when Marvin Austin tore his pectoral muscle in camp. The Redskins' coaching staff is well aware that Rex Grossman is a game-blowing error waiting to happen, which is why they wanted John Beck to win the quarterback starting job. Beck didn't, and they'll open the year gashing opponents with the run.
Redskins slot man Santana Moss is one of the least sexy receiver plays going, but he's got an awfully favorable matchup against a Giants team that lost CB Terrell Thomas to a torn ACL in the preseason. Thomas was projected to cover the slot this year, and that's where Moss plays his snaps in three-receiver sets. New York even lost backup slot corner Bruce Johnson to a torn Achilles'. Start Moss. ... In terms of targets, helping to clear the way for Moss is Chris Cooley's balky knee. The coaches won't say whether Cooley will play, and he may be on a snap count if he does. Avoid Cooley and keep an eye on Fred Davis. ... Jabar Gaffney is even less exciting than Moss, and he's likely to spend most of this game in Giants top CB Corey Webster's coverage.
Washington overhauled its secondary in the offseason, acquiring more playmakers (O.J. Atogwe, Josh Wilson) with suspect cover skills. Wilson can run with any receiver, but he's a diminutive gambler at 5-foot-9, 192. Atogwe excels at stripping runners and making plays on the ball, but he's burnable in the back end. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham need to be locked into lineups. Nicks is a top-five receiver and Manningham top-20 with the potential to flirt with top-10 stats. The Giants have no threat of an inside pass game, so Eli Manning will pepper his outside receivers with targets. Nicks and Manningham are both legit candidates for 100 receiving yards.
Manning should complete enough throws to keep Manningham and Nicks fed, but his awful camp and preseason are causes for serious concern. Eli looked uncomfortable throughout August without slot receiver Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss, consistently missing easy throws over the middle. He finished the exhibition season 27-of-55 (49.1%) for 314 yards (5.7 YPA), no scores, and two interceptions. We'd call it no big deal if Manning was better in practices, but he wasn't. Eli may be exposed this season as the mediocre NFL quarterback he always has been. ... Not enough was made over the past month of the fact that the Giants are moving toward an even timeshare in the backfield. While it's too early to say how well the revamped Redskins front seven will jell as a run defense, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are more low-end RB2/flex types than surefire fantasy starters. Bradshaw isn't going to approach last year's 323 touches.
Score Prediction: Redskins 21, Giants 20
<!--RW-->Sunday Night Football
Dallas @ NY Jets
I always felt Santonio Holmes was underrated in drafts. He'll show up big in this one. Cowboys LCB Terence Newman (groin) has been ruled out, moving slot corner Orlando Scandrick outside. Scandrick is routinely burned in space, and the Jets' dangerous rushing attack will prevent Dallas from bracketing Holmes out of the pass game. Holmes will set career highs in targets, receptions, and fantasy rank this year. It begins on Sunday Night Football. ... Cowboys NT Jay Ratliff slimmed to 285 pounds this offseason, a questionable move from a run defense standpoint. Jets All-Pro C Nick Mangold and RG Brandon Moore should manhandle Ratliff at the point of attack. During the preseason, Dallas' first-team defense allowed 175 yards and a TD on 33 carries (5.30 YPC) to opposing first-team backs, perhaps due in no small part to Ratliff's melting body. Shonn Greene is ticketed for 20+ carries.
I wouldn't bet against Plaxico Burress scoring a touchdown in prime time, but he needs to prove himself a full-time player before he's inserted into fantasy starting lineups. You probably drafted him as a WR4. Let's see the 34-year-old receiver make it through four quarters before using him. ... Dustin Keller would've been a lot more intriguing from a fantasy standpoint had the Jets not signed Derrick Mason. Keller's weekly targets will be inconsistent, and his snaps may be as well. When Burress or Mason goes down -- and, considering their age, one of them probably will -- Keller could emerge as one of Mark Sanchez's go-to receivers. For now, he's TE2 material.
The Cowboys will field one of the NFL's most explosive offenses this season. And they'll have to, because their secondary won't stop anyone. Underrated in 2011 fantasy drafts, Tony Romo will reap the rewards. Romo can be expected to target Jason Witten and Dez Bryant relentlessly on Sunday night, attacking the Jets over the middle and deep downfield. Miles Austin is an excellent receiver, but he needs to be on benches. Darrelle Revis will approach Nnamdi Asomugha status this season as a cornerback against whom offenses just don't throw. Revis shadows all opposing No. 1 receivers, and it certainly doesn't help Austin's chances that he typically plays on the right side of the offensive formation. Revis, in nature, is an LCB. ... Bryant and Cromartie will be the matchup of the night. It is impossible to predict things with certainty in this business, but by all appearances, Bryant is on the hook for a big game. The Cowboys need him, because Austin won't be a factor.
Someone told me in the spring that Jason Witten was overrated in fantasy. After a double take, I hit the internets for Witten's career stats. Witten has finished either No. 1 or No. 2 in fantasy scoring among tight ends in three of the past four seasons. He has never missed a game in his career due to injury, and enters Week 1 as the favorite to lead the Cowboys in catches and yards. Romo will need to get it out quick to Witten with RT Tyron Smith nursing a hyperextended knee, and it can't hurt Witten's target total that No. 2 TE Martellus Bennett is out for the game with a high ankle sprain. ... The Jets are annually tough in run defense, but Felix Jones is setup for 20 touches in this one. While he's not an especially good bet for a true breakout game, 100 total yards are within reach. I watched every preseason snap taken by Jones. Notable: When Dallas' first-team was on the field, Jones was in for each play inside the opposing 10-yard line. He will get goal-line carries.
Score Prediction: Jets 24, Cowboys 23
Monday Night Football
New England @ Miami
The Patriots' backfield will become muddied over the course of the season, but in Week 1 expect it to open like it finished 2010. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the clock-killing early-down back, and Danny Woodhead the rich man's version of Kevin Faulk as a receiver, slot man, occasional inside carrier, and blitz protector. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are the future, but there is no reason to believe they are the present. At least not yet ... Green-Ellis has scored in three of his four career meetings with Miami. This is a game setup well for "Law Firm" because he dominates when New England has the lead. And the Fins look like a pushover opponent. ... Woodhead can be expected to receive 10-12 touches. I personally would be looking for an option with more upside. ... Wes Welker has at least eight catches in each of his last four games against the Fins. Start 'em, especially in PPR.
The Dolphins field one of the better outside corner duos in football with Vontae Davis on the left and Sean Smith on the right. The Pats' three-receiver set is comprised of Chad Ochocinco, Welker, and Deion Branch. Branch and Ochocinco are the outside receivers on most of the snaps. Perhaps one of them will score a fluky touchdown, but neither has a good-looking matchup. I'd like to know more about the Patriots' receiver rotation before investing in it, anyhow. ... Rob Gronkowski caught six balls for 102 yards and a TD in his last meeting with the Dolphins. I'm just not sure how the Fins are going to stop him, barring a game plan that employs Gronkowski as a blocker. ... Aaron Hernandez is coming off a big August and has rare athleticism for a tight end. The TE position is just so deep in fantasy, and Hernandez plays about 50 percent of the snaps. He's too boom or bust for my liking.
The Pats-Fins over-under is the second largest of Week 1. If there ever was one, this is the week to play Reggie Bush. Daniel Thomas came down with an in-practice hamstring pull, and the coaching staff has never shown faith in Lex Hilliard. Bush is in line for 18-20 touches, opening the season as a true feature back. ... Especially in a PPR league, I'll take these averages against New England from Brandon Marshall: Seven catches for 74 yards with two touchdowns in four games. Marshall is a shoo-in WR2. He looked as athletic and fast as ever in the preseason. ... Davone Bess is never a sexy start, but he gets open and catches passes. He's a borderline every-week WR3 in PPR.
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Dolphins 13
Oakland @ Denver
The Broncos are rushing back NT Brodrick Bunkley from a knee injury that cost him over two weeks of camp and the preseason finale. New to the system, Bunkley is likely to be at least somewhat behind the curve and perhaps a bit out of shape. Even if Bunkley were in top condition, Denver was going to contend for the worst run defense in football. Darren McFadden, legs fresh after a carry-less preseason, has faced the Broncos six career times. He's averaged an otherworldly 6.16 yards per carry with six touchdowns. McFadden also averages 98 total yards per game against Denver, though that's only on an average of 15 touches. He'll get the rock 25 times on Monday night. ... Jacoby Ford is going to be much better than his fantasy draft slotting indicated, but this is a week to wait and see. Don't mess with Champ Bailey. ... Jason Campbell is basically in the same boat. Oakland needs to pound the Broncos with the run, shying away from an underrated pass defense.
The Raiders have lost 11 straight prime-time games, seven of them on Monday night. So Broncos fans have something to get excited about; it certainly won't be their team's offense. All indications from the Denver preseason were that John Fox will install a heavily run-oriented attack, as expected according to his history. Knowshon Moreno will get the vast majority of the work between the 20s and is a candidate for 18-plus weekly touches. Willis McGahee is a roll of the dice as a goal-line back who will kill you if he doesn't score. ... Brandon Lloyd should've been the happiest guy in the room when Nnamdi Asomugha left Oakland in free agency. Lloyd struggled against a healthy Asomugha last season, and Stanford Routt isn't quite as intimidating. Lloyd is the Broncos' pass catcher to start in this one. ... Kyle Orton's attempts will be down, and he did not fare well in his lone 2010 meeting with the Raiders, going just 12-of-29 for 198 yards. That's a 41.4 completion rate.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Broncos 17