Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Elite QBs offer best value with early picks

As we close the book on the 2011 fantasy football season, let's remember the lessons we learned so we set ourselves up for success in 2012 (season fantasy point totals do not include Week 17).

Quarterbacks are king
Many of us make the same mistake year after year. We grab running backs in the first two rounds because we're so scared of the supposed limited supply. But in doing so, we ignore the fact that quarterbacks are our greatest point producers and offer the safest return on our investment.

• MORE: Fantasy playoff rankings

In order, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady were the top three scoring players of 2011. The top running back —LeSean McCoy— was 168 points behind Brady.
So why did McCoy have an average draft position (ADP) of eighth while Brady had an ADP of 20th? Brees, who shattered the single-season passing yardage record, typically wasn't selected until the 31st pick — after disappointments such as Rashard Mendenhall (ninth), DeSean Jackson (24th), Peyton Hillis (25th) and Reggie Wayne (30th).
The argument that taking an elite back gives you an advantage because of "relative dominance" is outdated.
Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, the player most often taken No. 1, finished third at his position in overall points because he missed a couple of games. His average of 19.01 points in games played, however, was the best, slightly better than McCoy's 18.63.
For Foster to provide a 10-point advantage in your lineup, you would have to go all the way down the list to Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers, who finished with an 8.85 average — 31st among running backs.
But only Brees, Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford were within 10 points of Rodgers' best 35.19 average.
Those popular "value picks" owners thought they were getting in the mid-rounds when selecting Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Freeman didn't come within 12 points of Brady's third-best 29.85 average.
Since the goal is to generate the most points for your team, it just doesn't make mathematical sense to focus on positions that don't provide you the greatest differential between elite and the merely good.
And consider where the top quarterbacks finished in fantasy points over the last four seasons starting in 2008.
•Rodgers was third, first, second and first.
•Brees was first, second, ninth and second.
•Brady was injured in 2008, but eighth in '09 and third in each of the past two seasons.
That consistency is why picking one of them in the first round is the soundest investment strategy for building your team.
And with the arrival of Newton, who should only improve with time and a better supporting cast, I'd argue the first four picks of 2012 should be quarterbacks.
Go with the system at running back
As a fan, it's hard not to love McCoy, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. Rice (second) and Jones-Drew (fourth) joined Foster and McCoy at the top of the list for fantasy points by running backs. All four have a solid history for staying healthy. Foster is the one most known for keeping his owners on edge with nagging injuries. But it's players who are in situations like his that owners should focus on on draft day.
Teams that have rushing attacks with a history of success can make life a lot easier for owners when it comes to dealing with injuries. Even though it requires committing draft picks to backups while your fellow owners are drafting players with starting gigs, the reward is well worth it.
The trick is focusing on teams with proven success and players with similar skill sets. The Texans are going to run well with Foster or Ben Tate. Once the Detroit Lions picked up shifty veteran Kevin Smith, he was a fantasy force similar to injured Jahvid Best.
Even though he is 20 pounds lighter than veteran teammate Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller proved he could handle the load of a feature back. He was fifth in fantasy points at the position in December.
And no one will confuse Minnesota Vikings backup Toby Gerhart with superstar Adrian Peterson, but hard-charging Gerhart showed he can get it done between the tackles, producing more than 14 points a game during the stretch run with Peterson out.
The problem (if you could call it a problem) with owning a unique player such as McCoy or Jones-Drew is that the drop-off between them and their backups is so significant, you'll have to look to another team for a replacement, which will be costlier than drafting a backup from a running powerhouse.
Receivers can answer call late
I'd have a hard time criticizing anyone for taking Calvin Johnson early in the draft. The Lions' stud was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and — let's face it — provides a cool factor that can't be ignored. (Remember, fantasy is supposed to be a fun, social affair.)
But after Johnson and maybe Larry Fitzgerald, there really are no wide receivers who demand being taken early.
Point-per-reception league owners can make an argument for Wes Welker, but most of us play in standard leagues, and Welker has never recorded double-digit touchdowns in a season.
There's a greater turnover each season with the leaders at wide receiver than at any other position. And finding difference makers off the waiver wire and late in drafts is far easier, too.
Last season, Brandon Lloyd was the best fantasy wideout despite being a waiver pickup in nearly every league. This season, Green Bay Packers No. 2 receiver Jordy Nelson had an ADP of 117 as the 45th wideout off the board, but he finished second in fantasy points.
The New York Giants' Victor Cruz was another waiver-wire wonder, coming in as the fourth-best receiver in fantasy. Nelson and Cruz also shine a light on the fact that you don't even need to be your team's best receiver to have the biggest fantasy impact.
While starting quarterbacks and running backs often are opposing defenses' first priority, Nos. 2 and 3 receivers get the luxury of fewer and less-talented defenders covering them. While Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys get big contracts and Pro Bowl consideration, journeyman Laurent Robinson was the player from the team's receiving corps to average 10 fantasy points over the last five weeks of the season.
So when prepping for your 2012 draft, put receivers under quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends on your shopping list.

 

[HacheMan]

Final Target Watch

To wrap up the 2011 NFL season I thought I’d take a look at some of the final usage numbers for the 2011 season. And also look at the top totals from the 2010. Join me?


2011/2010 Target Leaders



<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>2011 Rank</TD><TD>Receiver</TD><TD>Targets</TD><TD>2010 Rank</TD><TD>Receiver</TD><TD>Targets</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>177</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>2</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>173</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>175</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>172</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>4</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>153</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>153</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>146</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>6</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>148</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>145</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>142</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Stevie Johnson</TD><TD>142</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>8</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>142</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Terrell Owens</TD><TD>139</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Stevie Johnson</TD><TD>134</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>137</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>10</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>134</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>136</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Victor Cruz</TD><TD>132</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>131</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>12</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>132</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>130</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>128</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>14</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>129</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>128</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>Mike Williams (TB)</TD><TD>128</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>16</TD><TD>Mike Williams (TB)</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>Chris Cooley</TD><TD>126</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>Davone Bess</TD><TD>126</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>18</TD><TD>Antonio Brown</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco</TD><TD>124</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>121</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>123</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>20</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>120</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>123</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Greg Little</TD><TD>120</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>Danny Amendola</TD><TD>123</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Eleven of the top 21 target mongers repeated their top 21 finish this season so that means there were 10 newcomers to the list and 10 that fell off the list. The newcomers are what we are most interested in. Out with the old, in with the new I always say. Hey, did I just make that up? Someone call the patent office.

Jimmy Graham led all the new guys with 147 targets, catching 99 of those for the third most receptions for a tight end in NFL history and woo hoo! He also broke Kellen Winslow's record for most yards for a tight end in a season with 1,310. Oh wait, he done got Gronk’d. Yes, Rob Gronkowski beat Graham to the punch and finished the season 17 yards richer.

The two most successful surprises on the list are Victor Cruz and Antonio Brown. Both were on sleeper lists to start the season but not many would have bet on them finishing 3rd and 13th in wide receiver receiving yards.


Target Effeciency

One name you won’t see on the above list is Jordy Nelson and that is due to the efficiency of Aaron Rodgers. That takes us into the next stat, yards per target. Here are the top receivers in yds/tgt with 50 or more targets.

1. Jordy Nelson -- 13.3
2. Malcom Floyd --12.2
3. James Jones -- 11.8
4. Victor Cruz -- 11.6
5. Brandon LaFell -- 10.9
6. Steve Smith -- 10.8
7. Laurent Robinson -- 10.7
8. Rob Gronkowski -- 10.7
9. Mike Wallace -- 10.6
10. Johnny Knox -- 10.5
11. Calvin Johnson -- 10.5
12. Marques Colston -- 10.5
13. Julio Jones -- 10.2
14. Robert Meachem -- 10.2
15. Devery Henderson -- 10.1
16. Jake Ballard -- 9.9
17. Vincent Jackson -- 9.7
18. Andre Johnson -- 9.6
19. Greg Jennings -- 9.6
20. DeSean Jackson -- 9.4
21. Jared Cook -- 9.4

As you can see Nelson is the clear leader and his teammate James Jones is not far behind with Greg Jennings slacking down at 19th. These guys are good no doubt, but Aaron Rodgers elevates their game. You’ll also see another trio of receivers on this list from another team, the New Orleans Saints. Mr. Drew Brees does a pretty good job of making the most out of his attempts. If you look at these top receivers in this category you’ll notice Rodgers, Rivers, Manning and Newton are the men behind the receivers. That Cam Newton was efficient enough with his attempts toward LaFell and Smith to give them 10 yards a target says a lot for the rookie. Not one of these other receivers’ quarterbacks was a rookie or even considered a sub-par quarterback.

And here I’ll return to the recording duo of Rodgers and Nelson. Of Nelson's 68 receptions 22 percent of them went for touchdowns. That led the league of course unless you count Ricardo Lockette’s 100 percent, but you really shouldn’t.


On the other end of this efficiency spectrum we can see some sad numbers, especially if these guys were on your fake team.

1. Mike Thomas – 4.6
2. Andre Caldwell – 4.7
3. Jonathan Baldwin – 5.0
4. Dane Sanzenbacher – 5.1
5. Mohamed Massaquoi – 5.2
6. Austin Collie – 5.4
7. Marcedes Lewis – 5.4
8. Dallas Clark – 5.4
9. Devin Aromashodu – 5.6
10. Ben Watson – 5.8
11. Jarett Dillard – 5.8
12. Visanthe Shiancoe – 5.8
13. Greg Little – 5.9
14. Ed Dickson – 5.9
15. Andre Roberts – 6.0
16. Hines Ward – 6.0
17. Greg Olsen – 6.1
18. Brandon Gibson -- 6.1
19. Santana Moss – 6.1
20. Mike Williams (TB) – 6.2
21. Lance Kendricks – 6.2

I’ll raise you 3 Blaine Gabbert’s and 3 Colt McCoy’s in this QB inefficiency card game from hell. Now I’m not saying these wide receivers are all the greatest things since sliced bread, but as a whole if you look at the quarterbacks that get their receivers to 10 yards per target compared to the guys that get their receivers to 5 yards per target, well, there’s a difference. Think of The Godfather (Aaron Rodgers) and White Chicks (Blaine Gabbert) . You don’t really need an Academy Award (MVP) to tell you which one is better.


<!--RW-->Running Back Targets

I took a stroll down receiving running back memory lane and found a couple facts that interested me. One is that there are only three running backs with over 1,000 yards receiving since the merger and secondly that two of those came in the same season, 1985. That year there were also only 11 players overall that had over 1,000 yards receiving! Anyway, Roger Craig and Lionel “Little Train” James were the two running backs that topped 1k that year. And not until The Greatest Show on Turf and Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk came on the scene was the 1k barrier breeched again. This season we saw two running backs perform well in the passing game with both Darren Sproles and Ray Rice topping 700 yards. Let’s take a look at how they stacked up in the targets and yards per target department.

1. Darren Sproles – 107/6.6
2. Ray Rice – 104/6.8
3. Mike Tolbert – 79/5.5
4. Chris Johnson -- 79/5.3
5. Matt Forte – 75/6.5
6. Arian Foster – 72/8.6
7. LeSean McCoy – 69/4.6
8. Dexter McCluster – 65/5.1
9. Maurice Jones-Drew – 64/5.8
10. LaDainian Tomlinson – 60/7.5
11. Jonathan Stewart – 60/6.9
12. Roy Helu – 60/6.3
13. Ryan Mathews – 59/7.7
14. Pierre Thomas – 59/7.2
15. Steven Jackson – 58/5.7
16. C.J. Spiller – 54/5
17. Kregg Lumpkin – 53/5.5
18. Reggie Bush – 52/5.7
19. Fred Jackson – 49/9.0
20. Michael Bush – 47/8.9
21. Ahmad Bradshaw – 44/6.1
22. Felix Jones – 44/5

Fred Jackson, Arian Foster and Michael Bush made the most out of their targets but Darren Sproles was the clear aerial king with his 7 receiving touchdowns. Ryan Mathews and Chris Johnson combined for a healthy 138 targets, 107 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns. Dexter McCluster finished higher than I expected and with a lower yards per target than I expected. All in all it is hard to assign much meaning to running back receiving yards since the sample sizes are usually pretty low, but Sproles and Rice were the cream of the receiving-back crop this year and there’s no reason, other than the many obstacles that football throws at them, that they can’t repeat similar numbers next season.


Running Back Workload

There is always much debate on how an excessive workload will affect running backs in subsequent years. Personally I don’t believe there is any formula you can insert here to help you predict the future but getting hit over and over probably isn’t the best thing for the human body. Here are the running backs and how heavily they were relied upon by their team. The numbers are number of touches/percentage of the team’s plays the running back was targeted.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew -- 386/0.43
2. Ray Rice -- 367/0.39
3. Arian Foster -- 331/0.35
4. LeSean McCoy -- 321/0.34
5. Chris Johnson -- 319/0.36
6. Michael Turner -- 318/0.31
7. Marshawn Lynch -- 313/0.34
8. Steven Jackson -- 302/0.33
9. Frank Gore -- 299/0.33
10. Michael Bush -- 293/0.31
11. Cedric Benson -- 288/0.30
12. Shonn Greene -- 283/0.30
13. Ryan Mathews -- 272/0.28
14. Willis McGahee -- 261/0.33
15. Reggie Bush -- 259/0.28
16. Matt Forte -- 255/0.30
17. Beanie Wells -- 255/0.28
18. Rashard Mendenhall – 246/0.26
19. Adrian Peterson -- 227/0.24
20. Fred Jackson -- 209/0.22

As you can see the top guys miraculously are the guys that didn’t suffer injuries. Maurice Jones-Drew was easily the most used running back and also one of the biggest preseason risks due to his knee problems. With a rookie quarterback who played like a rookie and not much in the way of help from backup running backs, tight ends or receivers MJD had to carry the load game in and game out.

In 2010, the top 10 work horses were:

1. Arian Foster 393/.41
2. Steven Jackson 376/.38
3. Ray Rice 370/.4
4. Chris Johnson 360/.42
5. Cedric Benson 349/.35
6. Rashard Mendenhall 347/.38
7. Michael Turner 346/.33
8. Maurice Jones-Drew 333/.33
9. Peyton Hillis 331/.4
10. Ahmad Bradshaw 323/.33

You can see there is some major overlap here with 7 running backs repeating their top 10 workload numbers. Yes, it’s okay to look at workload and wear and tear on a running back when assessing their season outlook but don’t make it your sole criteria in downgrading a player.


Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham -- 148
2. Brandon Pettigrew -- 125
3. Rob Gronkowski -- 124
4. Kellen Winslow -- 119
5. Jason Witten -- 117
6. Tony Gonzalez -- 116
7. Dustin Keller -- 115
8. Aaron Hernandez -- 113
9. Brent Celek -- 98
10. Vernon Davis -- 95
11. Jermaine Gresham -- 92
12. Jermichael Finley -- 92
13. Greg Olsen -- 89
14. Ed Dickson -- 89
15. Antonio Gates -- 88
16. Fred Davis -- 87
17. Marcedes Lewis -- 85
18. Owen Daniels -- 84
19. Jared Cook -- 81
20. Heath Miller -- 73
21. Ben Watson -- 71

This was the year of the tight end with both Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski going all old-school Chargers tight ends on us but on the whole there wasn’t a huge jump in targets to tight ends. Graham and Gronk are both special players and showed why this season. On the whole though it is apparent the trend toward showcasing elite tight ends in the offensive game plan is becoming a more than viable option.

 

[HacheMan]

Sunday's Wild Card Matchups

Atlanta @ NY Giants
Sunday 1:00ET

Atlanta Must: Keep Matt Ryan upright. Atlanta's O-Line played better down the stretch, but part of that was due to weak opponents. In their final seven games, the Falcons faced one defense ranked higher than 19th in the league in sacks. Ryan took only eight sacks during that span after absorbing 18 in the first nine weeks. The Giants finished the regular season third in the statistic, despite 11 missed games from star ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Osi and Tuck are healthy now, while Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as the club's best pass rusher. In terms of run and pass yardage rankings, the Giants' defense may appear to be vulnerable on paper. But there isn't a more fearsome pass rush left in the playoffs.

New York Must: Get Ahmad Bradshaw going. The Falcons ranked sixth in regular-season run defense, but sprung leaks during the final month. In the last four games, Panthers, Jaguars, Saints, and Bucs backs combined to rush for 398 yards on 65 carries (6.12 YPC) against Atlanta, which also lost strong-side linebacker Stephen Nicholas to a lingering knee injury. Nicholas won't play against the G-Men. Bradshaw struggled to stay healthy for much of the season, but overtook Brandon Jacobs to be New York's lead back in the last three games and is integral to the Giants' chances on Sunday. Big-play receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham can be deadly off play-action fakes, but need opponents to fear New York's running game to execute.

X-Factor: Giants safety Kenny Phillips. Phillips hasn't been recognized with a Pro Bowl berth in his four-year career, but he's on his way after a breakout season. In addition to setting career highs in tackles (82), pass breakups (11), and picks (4), Phillips graded out as the NFL's sixth-best safety by Pro Football Focus. Phillips spends a lot of time "in the box" supporting the run, and will be key to New York's defense of Michael Turner. In coverage, Phillips' responsibilities will likely include guarding Tony Gonzalez and providing "help" against Roddy White. A terrifically versatile, well-rounded safety, expect Phillips' name to be called often by Sunday's broadcasters.

Why the Giants will win: I think they will have more success running the ball, throwing it, and rushing the passer than Atlanta. Ryan's career home-away splits are also a bit startling when assessing the Falcons' chances. In 30 career home games, Ryan has a 26-4 record, 64.8 completion rate, 7.55 yards-per-attempt average, and 49:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 32 road affairs, Ryan is 17-15, completes 58.1% of his passes, averages 6.66 YPA, and has 46 TD passes compared to 29 picks. This will be Atlanta's second game played outdoors since Week 4.

Prediction: Giants 30, Falcons 21

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Sunday 4:30ET

Pittsburgh Must: Keep Tim Tebow confined to the pocket. Tebow has been at his most dangerous in shotgun-spread formations, from which he can break off large yardage chunks when opposing back sevens play deep to defend four receivers' "go" routes. In terms of classic rushing offense, Denver is likely to struggle. Over their final nine regular-season games, the Steelers permitted just 817 yards and two touchdowns on 232 rushing attempts (3.52 YPC). Particularly after losing Pro Bowl right guard Chris Kuper to a broken leg in Week 17, the Broncos probably won't even stay competitive Sunday without dramatically altering their ultra-conservative offensive mentality, an approach that has emphasized ball control over putting points on the scoreboard.

Denver Must: Have its best game of the season in pass coverage. Aside from Champ Bailey, every member of Denver's back end has struggled this year. 33-year-old right cornerback Andre' Goodman has been consistently picked apart by opposing passing games, rookie strong safety Quinton Carter is clearly best suited to play in the box, and David Bruton would be a special teamer-only on a team with a good secondary. Brian Dawkins won't play due to a neck injury. The Steelers have been a throw-first team all year, racking up a franchise high for pass attempts since the 2002 season. If Denver can't put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and cover Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders, the Steelers are going to pour points on the Broncos.

X-Factor: Steelers tailback Isaac Redman. While much was made by the media this week of Rashard Mendenhall's torn ACL, it's conceivable that the Steelers will be better with Redman at feature back. Redman lacks home-run speed, but is a superior receiver and pass blocker than Mendenhall, better fitting Pittsburgh's new style of offense. Redman has also been an upgrade in terms of per-play production. Whereas Mendenhall averaged 4.07 yards per carry this season, Redman posted a 4.35 mark and is arguably a preferred option at the goal line with a more decisive, no-nonsense running style. Mendenhall too often danced around the line of scrimmage.

Why the Steelers will win: I don't trust Denver's offensive staff to formulate an attack for which the Steelers' defense isn't prepared. Pittsburgh also plays with more aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. Tebow's apparent loss of confidence isn't helping, either. He was tentative throwing downfield last Sunday following a four-turnover Week 16 game. This week, the Broncos' front office publicly criticized Tebow for refusing to take chances. In his previous ten starts, Denver coaches did as much as possible to minimize Tebow's impact and discourage him from "low-percentage" plays. From top to bottom, the Broncos are a divided team and organization.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Broncos 13

 

[lax_gunman]

Hache, you have any espn insider info on the gridiron challenge for this week?

 

[HacheMan]

Hache, you have any espn insider info on the gridiron challenge for this week?

Sorry I missed that lax

 

[HacheMan]

Sunday's Divisional Matchups

Houston @ Baltimore

Sunday 1:00ET

Texans Must: Throw successfully on first down. Houston finished the regular season tied for the league lead in rushing attempts, and posted a 35:20 run-to-pass ratio in the Wild Card round. The Ravens will expect the run. The Texans can gain a step on Baltimore by using play-action fakes to set up early-down passing plays, be it of the deep variety to Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones, or higher-percentage crossers to possession receiver Kevin Walter. It will be important for T.J. Yates to establish rhythm and confidence early on. This projects as perhaps the closest of this weekend's Divisional round affairs, and the Texans won't topple teams tougher than the Bengals without an extended period of strong performance from their rookie quarterback.

Ravens Must: Delete Houston's running game. This is where Baltimore's first-round bye will come in particularly handy. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis got a week off to rest his ailing toe, an injury that has affected both his performance and availability since Week 10. Run-stopping LE Cory Redding (ankle), ILB Dannell Ellerbe (head), and DT Arthur Jones (illness) are all recovered from late-year injuries. The Ravens fielded the AFC's toughest regular-season run defense and are now at full strength. It's an intimidating development for Wild Card round star Arian Foster, who was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries and held out of the end zone in Houston's Week 6 regular-season meeting with these same Ravens. Despite Foster's mammoth statistical line against the Bengals, he also appeared to be a step slower than usual in terms of acceleration.

X-Factor: Anquan Boldin. Boldin played the first 14 games with a torn meniscus, missing the final two after December 22 surgery. This week, Boldin declared himself the healthiest he's been all year. During the aforementioned Week 6 meeting with Houston, Boldin abused Texans top corner Johnathan Joseph for 132 yards on a season-high eight catches as Joseph shadowed him throughout the game. Boldin's return makes the Ravens' passing attack considerably more dangerous because his physicality creates mismatches in the slot while deep threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans man the outside. The Texans will likely focus their defensive efforts on stopping Ray Rice and Baltimore's ground game, so the wideouts should all see plenty of single coverage.

Why the Ravens Will Win: Beating the Bengals in Week 17 was crucial for Baltimore because it bought them much-needed time. Team leader Lewis will have his legs back after the playoff bye, and a healthy Boldin appears to have Joseph's number. The Texans' offensive staff will likely do what it can to relieve any and all pressure from Yates, but I'm betting against a rookie quarterback visiting the Ravens far more often than not. If the Texans do pull the upset -- they're 7.5-point dogs -- it will be because Yates had easily the best game of his young pro career.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 21

NY Giants @ Green Bay
Sunday 4:30ET

Giants Must: Attack Chad Clifton. After tearing his left hamstring in October, the Packers' 35-year-old left tackle recovered slower than expected, not returning until Week 17. Clifton has played just 25 snaps since Week 5, and Sunday will mark the first time the Packers have started Clifton and RT Bryan Bulaga together since Week 2. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jason Pierre-Paul most often lines up against left tackles and is key to the Giants' chances of containing Aaron Rodgers. Sub-package DEs Osi Umenyiora and Dave Tollefson also play Pierre-Paul's spot in certain sets, so New York can send a wave of defenders in Clifton's direction.

Packers Must: Not waste opportunities. In their Week 13 regular-season meeting with New York, Packers would-be receivers combined to drop six passes, "led" by Jermichael Finley's three. With Umenyiora and left defensive end Justin Tuck healthier, the Giants' pass rush has been souped up since. Green Bay's margin for error is likely to be slimmer against a red-hot New York team that has decisively beaten three straight tough opponents. Amid the Michael Philbin tragedy, this may come down to a matter of game preparation for Packers coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy rested many starters in Week 17, followed by a playoff bye. When they take the field Sunday afternoon, Green Bay first-teamers will be playing together for the first time in 21 days.

X-Factor: B.J. Raji. After emerging as one of the league's most dominant nose tackles last season, Raji took a step back this year as his playing time increased. Used as an every-down player for most of the season's first half, the 337-pounder has worn down while opponents have averaged 4.67 yards per rushing attempt against Green Bay, the seventh highest average in the NFL. Surprisingly, Raji was among the Packers starters who did see a full complement of Week 17 snaps as many first-teamers rested. An impact performance will be needed from Raji if Green Bay plans to halt a Giants ground game that rushed for 172 yards in the Wild Card round.

Why the Packers Will Win: Because I picked them before the season to repeat. Just kidding. Sorta. The Giants are the NFL's hottest team north of Louisiana and pose a stiff test for the defending champs. To me, it's a talent issue. Green Bay is the most skilled and deepest team in football, and I'm going to bet on them every single chance I get -- especially at home. I think Finley will have a monster game, making up for his embarrassing Week 13 effort. Defensively, Raji will benefit from the week off. I do like the Giants to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 24

 

[HacheMan]

NFL Free Agent Master List

The 2011 free agent class was the deepest, most talent-rich in league history. The 2012 class comes pretty close.

With transactions disallowed during last year's lockout, NFL teams and agents had significantly less time to broker long-term contracts. When the lockout was lifted in late July, negotiators had just over a month to strike agreements before the start of the season. A large chunk of talented players was forced to settle for one-year arrangements. Contract-year players who normally would've received multi-year deals played out their final seasons.

Unlike most other sites, Rotoworld has NFL Players Association access and can produce the most accurate free agent lists on the web. Chris Wesseling, Pat Daugherty, and myself will soon begin delving deeper into the 2012 free agent class, but this is a preliminary look at the inventory. The unsigned players are loosely ranked in the order we expect them to be valued on the open market.

2012 free agency opens on the afternoon of March 13.

* = likely will be franchise tagged.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees *
Matt Flynn
Kyle Orton
Chad Henne
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
David Garrard
Vince Young
Josh Johnson
Shaun Hill
Byron Leftwich
Sage Rosenfels
Brady Quinn
Drew Stanton
Donovan McNabb
Chad Pennington
Rex Grossman
Dennis Dixon
Chris Redman
Josh McCown
Charlie Whitehurst
Luke McCown
Charlie Batch
Jake Delhomme
J.P. Losman
Dan Orlovsky
Derek Anderson
A.J. Feeley
Caleb Hanie
David Carr
Kellen Clemens
Kyle Boller
Mark Brunell
Jeff Garcia
Kevin O'Connell

Running Backs

Ray Rice *
Matt Forte *
Michael Bush *
Marshawn Lynch
Peyton Hillis
Cedric Benson
Mike Tolbert
Kevin Smith
Jason Snelling
Justin Forsett
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Tim Hightower
Steve Slaton
Cadillac Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Ronnie Brown
Ryan Grant
Jackie Battle
Sammy Morris
Mewelde Moore
Maurice Morris
Earnest Graham
Chester Taylor
Kevin Faulk
Tashard Choice
Derrick Ward
Thomas Jones
Jerious Norwood
LenDale White
Rock Cartwright
<!--RW-->

Fullbacks

Le'Ron McClain
Jacob Hester
Michael Robinson
Spencer Larsen
Owen Schmitt
Ahmard Hall
Moran Norris
Jerome Felton

Wide Receivers

Vincent Jackson
Dwayne Bowe *
Wes Welker *
Brandon Lloyd
Marques Colston
DeSean Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Robert Meachem
Mario Manningham
Pierre Garcon
Laurent Robinson
Braylon Edwards
Early Doucet
Ted Ginn
Plaxico Burress
Roscoe Parrish
Jerome Simpson
Jerricho Cotchery
Eddie Royal
Steve Smith (PHI)
Mark Clayton
Harry Douglas
Andre Caldwell
Josh Morgan
Donte' Stallworth
Legedu Naanee
Eric Weems
Terrell Owens
Deion Branch
Chaz Schilens
Devin Aromashodu
Mike Sims-Walker
Lavelle Hawkins
Derek Hagan
Patrick Crayton
Donnie Avery
Domenik Hixon
Greg Camarillo
Devin Thomas
Ruvell Martin
Maurice Stovall
Anthony Gonzalez
Kevin Curtis
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Matt Slater
Micheal Spurlock
Courtney Roby
Bernard Berrian
Roy Williams
Rashied Davis
David Anderson
Bryant Johnson
Jerheme Urban
Michael Clayton

Tight Ends

Jermichael Finley *
Fred Davis
Martellus Bennett
John Carlson
Jacob Tamme
Scott Chandler
Kellen Davis
Craig Stevens (Signed 4-year deal on 1/13)
Visanthe Shiancoe
Jeremy Shockey
Joel Dreessen
Daniel Fells
Bo Scaife
Leonard Pope
Randy McMichael
Alex Smith
Dante Rosario
Kris Wilson
Donald Lee
Reggie Kelly
Anthony Becht
Stephen Spach
John Gilmore
Justin Peelle
Billy Bajema
Tory Humphrey

Offensive Linemen

Carl Nicks
Jared Gaither
Ben Grubbs
Evan Mathis
Chris Myers
Jeff Backus
Kareem McKenzie
Jake Scott
Chilo Rachal
Samson Satele
Bobbie Williams
Max Starks
Scott Wells
Nick Hardwick
Demetrius Bell
Matt Birk
Jeff Saturday
Mike Brisiel
Jeremy Zuttah
James Lee
Jacob Bell
Dan Connolly
Todd McClure
Sean Locklear
Deuce Lutui
Mike Pollak
Vernon Carey
Casey Wiegmann
Will Montgomery
Guy Whimper
Derrick Dockery
Ryan Diem
Anthony Collins
Andre Gurode
Leonard Davis
Mike McGlynn
Brandon Keith
Montrae Holland
Nate Livings
Mike Otto
Stephon Heyer
Mackenzy Bernadeau
Dennis Roland
Adam Snyder
King Dunlap
John Greco
Stacy Andrews
Tony Moll
Breno Giacomini
Barry Richardson
Dan Koppen
Mark LeVoir
Khalif Barnes
Trai Essex
Geoff Hangartner
Robert Turner
Adam Goldberg
Scott Mruczkowski
Russ Hochstein
Tony Wragge
Artis Hicks
Kirk Chambers
Pat McQuistan
Mike Gibson
Paul McQuistan
Jamey Richard
Oniel Cousins
Ryan O'Callaghan
Scott Kooistra
D'Anthony Batiste
Steve Vallos
Quinn Ojinnaka
Brett Romberg

Manuel Ramirez
<!--RW-->

Defensive Linemen

Calais Campbell *
Mario Williams
Robert Mathis
Sione Pouha *
Jason Jones
Cliff Avril
John Abraham
Paul Soliai
Mark Anderson
Kendall Langford
Jeremy Mincey
Brodrick Bunkley
Matt Roth
Andre Carter
Aubrayo Franklin
Red Bryant
Trevor Laws
Cory Redding
Israel Idonije
Jarvis Moss
Kroy Biermann
Tony Brown
Colin Cole
Marcus Thomas
Phillip Merling
Letroy Guion
Pat Sims
Antonio Garay
Derek Landri
Trevor Scott
Dave Ball
Dave Tollefson
Rocky Bernard
Shaun Rogers
Anthony Hargrove
Juqua Parker
Jamaal Anderson
Amobi Okoye
Adam Carriker
Wallace Gilberry
William Hayes
Andre Fluellen
Raheem Brock
Brandon McKinney
Jovan Haye
Tommie Harris
Howard Green
Frostee Rucker
Aaron Smith
Tim Bulman
Jason Hunter
Turk McBride
Kelly Gregg
Kedric Golston
Jimmy Kennedy
Eric Foster
Vonnie Holliday
Derrick Harvey
Eric Moore
Igor Olshansky
Gary Gibson
C.J. Mosley
Shaun Ellis
Jeff Charleston
Fred Evans
Tyler Brayton
Darrion Scott
Gerard Warren
Amon Gordon
Jonathan Fanene
Ronald Fields
Victor Adeyanju
Daniel Muir
Jimmy Wilkerson
Chris Hoke
Victor Abiamiri

Linebackers

Curtis Lofton
Dan Connor
D'Qwell Jackson
David Hawthorne
Anthony Spencer
Stephen Tulloch
London Fletcher
Joe Mays
Ahmad Brooks
Jarret Johnson
Philip Wheeler
Quentin Groves
Jameel McClain
Manny Lawson
Jo-Lonn Dunbar
Leroy Hill
E.J. Henderson
Barrett Ruud
Geno Hayes
Rocky McIntosh
Larry Grant
Wesley Woodyard
Channing Crowder
Brandon Johnson
Jonathan Goff
Mario Haggan
Bryan Thomas
Ernie Sims
Kirk Morrison
Erin Henderson
Clark Haggans
Lofa Tatupu
Darryl Blackstock
Xavier Adibi
Bryan Kehl
Bobby Carpenter
Chase Blackburn
Bradie James
Reggie Torbor
Erik Walden
Chris Chamberlain
Gary Guyton
Blake Costanzo
Heath Farwell
David Vobora
Antwan Applewhite
Kevin Bentley
Keyaron Fox
Andra Davis
Ikaika Alama-Francis
Ricky Brown
Keith Brooking
Mike Peterson
Tracy White
Brady Poppinga
Marvin Mitchell
Tavares Gooden
Matt McCoy
Tim Shaw
Jordan Senn
Brendon Ayanbadejo
Patrick Bailey
Tim Dobbins
Ben Leber
Na'il Diggs
Omar Gaither
Isaiah Ekejiuba
Stephen Cooper
<!--RW-->

Cornerbacks

Brent Grimes
Cortland Finnegan *
Brandon Carr
Carlos Rogers
Terrell Thomas
Rashean Mathis
Aaron Ross
Eric Wright
Richard Marshall
Tracy Porter
Marcus Trufant
William Gay
Tim Jennings
Jason Allen
Kelvin Hayden
Kelly Jennings
Justin Tryon
Corey Graham
Pacman Jones
Zackary Bowman
Will Allen
Benny Sapp
Dimitri Patterson
Ronde Barber
Alan Ball
Phillip Buchanon
Patrick Lee

Jonathan Wilhite

Elbert Mack

Donald Strickland
Justin King
Michael Coe
David Jones
Reggie Corner
Roderick Hood
Travis Daniels
Cletis Gordon
Frank Walker
Will Blackmon
Brandon McDonald
Leigh Torrence
Anthony Madison



Safeties

Tyvon Branch
LaRon Landry
Dashon Goldson
Michael Griffin
Dwight Lowery
Thomas DeCoud
Jim Leonhard
Brandon Meriweather
Reggie Smith
Sean Jones
Mike Adams
Chris Harris
Reggie Nelson
Brodney Pool
Husain Abdullah
Tom Zbikowski
Jordan Babineaux
Madieu Williams
James Sanders
Steve Gregory
Abram Elam
Deon Grant
Tyrell Johnson
Dominique Barber
Jarrad Page
Craig Steltz
Erik Coleman
Bob Sanders
Haruki Nakamura
Anthony Smith
Jarrett Bush
Derrick Martin
Chris Hope
Craig Dahl
Atari Bigby
Corey Lynch
Gibril Wilson
Bryan Scott
Quintin Demps
Paul Oliver
Matt Giordano
Nathan Jones
James Ihedigbo
Courtney Greene
Hamza Abdullah
Antwaun Molden
Jon McGraw
Sean Considine
Sabby Piscitelli
Lito Sheppard
Randy Phillips
C.C. Brown
Myron Rolle

Kickers

Matt Prater
Neil Rackers
Jay Feely
Josh Scobee
Connor Barth
Phil Dawson
Rian Lindell
Dave Rayner
Mike Nugent
John Kasay
Nick Folk
Rhys Lloyd

Punters

Mat McBriar
Donnie Jones
Steve Weatherford
Dave Zastudil
Nick Harris
Daniel Sepulveda
Brad Maynard
Ben Graham
Matt Turk

Top Restricted Free Agents

Mike Wallace
Arian Foster
Lardarius Webb
Aaron Maybin
Brian Hoyer
Desmond Bryant
Keenan Lewis
Michael Bennett
Antonio Dixon
Danny Amendola
DeAndre Levy
Geoff Schwartz
Greg Toler
Kory Lichtensteiger
Kahlil Bell
La'Rod Stephens-Howling
Marcel Reece
Steven Hauschka
William Middleton
Cary Williams
Chase Daniel
Lydon Murtha
Fernando Velasco
Corey Hilliard
Tony Fiammetta
Marcus Benard
Sammie Lee Hill
Demar Dotson
Kory Sperry
C.J. Spillman
Doug Legursky
Ramon Foster
Rashad Johnson
Dannell Ellerbe
Lex Hilliard
Graham Gano
Adrian Arrington
Vance Walker
Ryan Mundy
Chad Rinehart
C.J. Ah You
Jovan Belcher
David Johnson
Russell Allen
Ashlee Palmer
Reggie Walker
Jamon Meredith
Nick Hayden
Jason Phillips
Kraig Urbik
Byron Westbrook
Dan Skuta
Brandyn Dombrowski
Lorenzo Booker
Titus Brown
Bear Pascoe
Kregg Lumpkin
Roy Lewis
Thomas Williams
Leger Douzable
Ryan McBean
Matthew Mulligan
Chris Pressley
Jake O'Connell
Ryan Baker
Jamaal Westerman
Marquice Cole
Brock Bolen
Kevin Ogletree
Kenny Onatolu
Jacob Lacey
William Robinson
Patrick Turner
Brit Miller

 

[HacheMan]

<table border="0" cellSpacing="0" cellPadding="0" width="940"><tbody><tr vAlign="top"><td width="843" align="left">Draft '12: Shrine Game Preview
Stuck between the BCS National Championship and the Senior Bowl is the less publicized East-West Shrine Game, held on Saturday, January 21 in Tampa Bay. Although the highest profile NFL-bound senior prospects attend the Senior Bowl, the East-West Shrine annually graduates solid mid-round talents that produce early in their rookie seasons. Last year's alumni include Giants DT Marvin Austin (52nd overall), Panthers DT Terrell McClain (65th), Bengals DE/OLB Dontay Moch (66th), Jaguars G Will Rackley (76th), Ravens OT Jah Reid (85th), and Titans DT Karl Klug (142nd), just to list a few.

The 2012 roster is made of former transfers that left larger schools for starting opportunities, Canadian or Division II and III stars with physical tools, players that had down senior seasons due to injury/production, or top performers that find themselves playing a deep position in the '12 draft class (RB, WR, CB). The full roster can be found here.

Throughout the game's week of practices, I will be posting articles here, tweeting observations from the field, and giving input on every player on the roster, so follow me @JoshNorris. For now, here are some of the top prospects sorted by position. All heights, weights, and forty times are projected until weigh-ins take place on Monday.

Quarterback

With San Diego State QB Ryan Lindley called up to replace Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill (foot) at the Senior Bowl, focus shifts to Florida QB John Brantley (6-3/220/4.89), who never performed to expectations in college. Despite his underwhelming play, Brantley is one of the few college players comfortable from under center with fluid footwork that stays in the pocket -- even too long at times despite above average mobility. Brantley's arm talent does not match his poise, starting with a windup release that drops below his shoulder and ending with inconsistent accuracy. A below the radar quarterback to watch is University of Chattanooga's B.J. Coleman (6-3/220/4.93). A Tennessee transfer, Coleman holds the ball in ideal position for a quick release with little wasted movement. Practices will be crucial to see if he has NFL-level arm talent against stiffer competition. Southern Mississippi's Austin Davis (6-1/221/4.78), the Burlsworth Trophy winner as the nation's top former walk-on, also has scouts wondering if he has enough strength to consistently make sideline throws 12-15 yards down the field but is ahead of others when reading coverages pre-snap.

Running Back/H-Back/Fullback

Temple’s Evan Rodriguez has a large fullback’s frame (6-2/250/4.67) but led the Owls in receiving yards in 2011. Versatility is great, but it will be interesting to see if Rodriguez's lack of a dedicated position limits him in practice this week. He needs to show encouraging blocking or receiving skills to be more than a utility H-Back. Tennessee's Tauren Poole (5-10/215/4.56) is a balanced runner with average athleticism whose physical, but technical style picks up large chunks of yardage. Poole's former teammate, Lennon Creer (6-0/215/4.57), transferred to Louisiana Tech and projects as an inside zone blocking scheme runner with the ability to hit cutback lanes.

Wide Receiver/Tight Ends

A deep squad is led by Arkansas' Jarius Wright (5-10/180/4.34), a slot prospect that played outside frequently in a speedy Razorbacks receiver group. Wright is a true vertical threat that creates distance on crossing routes but needs to show he has the footwork to run NFL caliber inside routes while making catches in traffic. Michigan's Sugar Bowl star Junior Hemingway (6-1/222/4.54) is great at working back towards the QB when plays break down and catching passes at their highest point in traffic, but needs to prove he is a consistent receiver that can create separation on short to intermediate routes. Michigan State's B.J. Cunningham (6-2/216/4.59) has strong hands and always seems to make catches away from his body. He is one of the nation's most underrated receivers but is limited in his straight line speed. Despite receiving only a handful of targets at Michigan, TE Kevin Koger (6-4/258/4.78) could shine in practice. Koger is a comfortable blocker and was held back as a receiver due to the Wolverines' offensive style; his best football might be ahead of him.

Offensive Line

Preseason national media favorite Matt Reynolds (6-4/305/5.28) played left tackle in college but may be moved inside if he struggles against top outside pass rushers. After drop stepping into a nearly straight-up posture, Reynolds allows quick rushers to beat him around the edge or physical rushers to beat him with a counter move. However, his reaction timing and active hands project well when shifting to guard. Colorado's Ryan Miller (6-7/298/5.32) may be doing the opposite, as he has the size to shift to right tackle after playing guard in his senior year. Miller has issues with flexibility and bends at the waist too often, but his long arms will help his ability to anchor. Ole Miss transfer G Rishaw Johnson (6-4/308/5.18), who finished his career at California (PA), offers much more in the running game with quickness off the snap and looks fluid getting to the second level. UConn's Moe Petrus (6-1/302/5.04) has a squatty build, but rarely gets beaten from the center position after a swift initial punch and is constantly readjusting his hand placement.

Defensive Line

The defensive tackles have the edge in terms of talent, with USC's DaJohn Harris (6-4/310/5.16) leading the way. His first contact is low and powerful but occasionally is pushed back on second and third efforts. Harris plays the run well, always looking for contact through his hands but needs help shedding with proper timing. He lacks closing speed and ability to quickly change direction when closing on the quarterback. Miami's Micanor Regis (6-2/305/5.20) is a bit overlooked, mainly due to an inconsistent ability to anchor and hold his lane. Regis is best when penetrating, shedding quickly with strong hands and splitting a gap. He has experience at both nose tackle and 3-technique. Dependable West Virginia DE Julian Miller (6-3/268/4.76) sticks to his assignment and holds the point of attack well with length and upper body strength. His sacks come from hustle and persistence more than pass rush skills but he projects as a mid-round high motor left defensive end.

Linebackers

3-4 defenses will be intrigued by Pittsburgh's Brandon Lindsey (6-2/250/4.68). He has a great get off and always looks to slap the blocker's hands away. He gets sacks just from his quick first step, but if his upfield momentum is stopped, Lindsey has little success with a counter move and seems satisfied staying outside the tackle's reach. Much has been made about Vontaze Burfict's recklessness on the field, but Canadian prospect Shawn Loiseau (6-2/238/4.68) is a wild man himself. He lays out for every tackle and is a punishing hitter; however, he tends to overrun plays and get out of position even against lower competition. Tank Carder (6-2/237/4.67) played in a 4-2-5 scheme at TCU and always seemed to be at the right place at the right time. He is a sure tackler in open lanes but has poor technique when fighting off blocks, leading to difficulty when disengaging. Carder lacks some upper body bulk but should not put on much weight as his cover skills are more than adequate.

Defensive Backs

Very few corners can play both inside and out, therefore scouts will be looking at specific qualities that help a CB fit either spot. Notre Dame's Robert Blanton (6-0/200/4.53) is best on the outside versus the run or screens, beating blocks with his length and wrapping up on tackles. At times he has stiff hips in off coverage, but Blanton watches the passer well and drives underneath for breakups. UNC's Charles Brown (5-9/205/4.49) was part of the group that was suspended for the entire 2010 season, and despite his shorter build Brown does not shy away from getting physical at the catch point. He's shown he can shadow receivers sideline to sideline as well as climb the ladder to disrupt catches. Brown has zone coverage experience, which is always necessary for a slot corner. Duke safety Matt Daniels (6-0/210/4.53) is fluid in open areas and interchangeable as a free or strong safety, but needs to win every one-on-one tackling situation as well as respect play-action fakes.

Top Ten Players at the East-West Shrine:

1. WR Jarius Wright (5-10/180/4.34) Arkansas - It is easy to go vertical from the slot, but other than crossing patterns, Wright has little experience with quick-step routes. He needs to flash ability after the catch to possibly move into the draft's second day.

2. S Aaron Henry (6-0/210/4.52) Wisconsin - In a shallow safety class, Henry may have the most to gain. Speed is not an issue for the former cornerback, but Henry needs to be more aware of deeper routes to not allow big plays over top.

3. CB Shaun Prater (5-10/185/4.49) Iowa - Prater predominately lined up in off coverage at Iowa, but will be asked to play closer to the line in Tampa. He is fluid in a zone scheme and has the ability to turn his hips and run in the pocket of a receiver. One-on-ones in practice will be telling.

4. WR B.J. Cunningham (6-2/216/4.59) Michigan State - Always seemed to be the go-to guy in crunch time at Michigan State. Cunningham is a deceivingly solid downfield target that should out-physical smaller defensive backs.

5. LB Josh Kaddu (6-3/236/4.67) Oregon - The versatile linebacker could be in for a rise during the draft season. Kaddu has a very athletic frame and has had success rushing the passer to go along with consistent run defense.

6. C Quentin Saulsberry (6-2/300/5.16) Mississippi State - Saulsberry played right tackle, guard, and center in college. He held his own against LSU's stud front seven, giving up little ground thanks to a thick lower body and violent hands.

7. DE Julian Miller (6-3/268/4.76) West Virginia - A rotational LDE at the next level that will improve pass rush by learning leverage techniques. Consistent play versus the run makes Miller a safer mid-round pick with expectations in check.

8. QB B.J. Coleman (6-3/220/4.93) UT-Chattanooga - Has a similar story to Joe Flacco, transferring from a large school in search of more playing time. His completion percentage is not where it should be (60.9 % this year), but Coleman already seems destined for coaching after his playing days are over.

9. S Duke Ihenacho (6-0/205/4.60) San Jose State - Once Ihenacho makes a decision he plants in one step and closes quickly. Ihenacho makes tackles at full speed, not waiting for the running back to hit the second level. However, these aggressive angles leave him susceptible to quick lateral moves and cutbacks.

10. G/T Markus Zusevics (6-5/300/5.08) Iowa - Overshadowed by likely top-10 pick Riley Reiff, Zusevics is a self-made player (has added over 75 pounds) that shows versatility as a guard or right tackle. He’s comfortable in his big frame but needs to refine his technique a bit. NFL teams love players that come from Iowa. They never lack physicality and are responsive to coaching.

​

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[lax_gunman]

Sorry I missed that lax

NP Hache...I ended up picking Brady, Welker, Gronk, Ridley over Colston, Graham, Brees and Sproiles. Normally I wouldn't ask but it s a money pool. I am in 2nd out of forty as I have been pretty lucky in these pools. Really the only choices i have at this point is to decide between Smith and Eli. I think rosters lock before this weeks games, but i will be looking for any posts you might have this week. Thanks again for your work. I'll send you a PM for any future pools.

 

[HacheMan]

Ranks for remainder of the playoffs

Eric Karabell

Raise your hand if you thought oft-maligned San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith would have the best game of his disappointing career Saturday against the New Orleans Saints. No, my hand isn't raised, either. I did think Smith was a smart pick in the ESPN Gridiron Playoff Challenge game, though, because his price was right and the Saints hardly resemble a strong defensive squad. But for him to outscore, from a fantasy aspect, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning is quite surprising. Smith accounted for four touchdowns, two in the final 2:11 of an exciting, memorable win.


The questions for fantasy owners as the NFL playoffs shrink to four teams is whether Smith's performance was merely a byproduct of the wretched defense he faced, or whether he can succeed again this coming weekend and, of course, long-term. It's not like the New York Giants, Smith's NFC title game foe, had one of the top defenses during the 2011 regular season, either, though they did keep the mighty Rodgers in check Sunday. And from a larger standpoint, is Smith, whose individual statistics brought some value to fantasy owners this season but were still underwhelming, still emerging as a legitimate fantasy weapon?
I don't think we're near the point of comparing Smith to the top-10 fantasy signal-callers yet, though clearly he is capable of producing good numbers on occasion, at least in a home playoff game against the Saints. In Gridiron Playoff Challenge scoring, those 31 points were quite impressive. During the season, the run-first, mistake-free 49ers didn't ask Smith to do much. As such, he never reached as many as 20 standard fantasy points in a game, though he was in double digits 11 weeks and finished 14th in quarterback scoring, a shade ahead of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, a potential February opponent.
Smith and Flacco are half of the starting quarterbacks remaining, and with favorable matchups -- certainly more so than their opponents -- they absolutely warrant our attention. Yes, Tom Brady threw six touchdown passes in embarrassing the Denver Broncos, but I don't see him coming anywhere close to that against Ray Lewis and the Ravens. And Eli Manning picked apart the defending-champ Green Bay Packers, as he should have, but the 49ers represent a different challenge.
Ah, that's part of the fun of Gridiron Playoff Challenge; can you afford Brady and Manning plus a pair of top running backs, wide receivers and Rob Gronkowski, while still leaving room for a defense and kicker? No, it's not likely you can. So for the final time this NFL playoff season, we rank the remaining players and wish you the best of luck!
Quarterbacks


1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
2. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
3. Eli Manning, New York Giants
4. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Analysis: Surely, Flacco is a better pocket passer than Tim Tebow, the misunderstood Broncos (occasional) wizard that was shut down at Foxborough. I gotta be honest: Flacco isn't exactly a star, either, and my expectations aren't great for this Sunday. I do think he'll fare better than Tebow did (nine completions, 136 yards), but the Patriots really turned on the pass rush, and despite atrocious overall regular-season numbers defensively, this unit hasn't been so bad the past few games. In the January 2009 postseason, Flacco and pals went to Foxborough and whipped the Patriots 33-14, but the quarterback attempted only 10 passes that day. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee went nuts running the ball. I think Brady should be good for three touchdown passes; he looks unstoppable. Flacco looks eminently stoppable, however. I wouldn't choose the stoppable one just because he's affordable.
In addition to Brady, I chose Smith. I like Manning better than Smith for this week, and he should perform well (Drew Brees had no issues against the Niners, really), but Smith represents considerable cost savings (6.7 to 6.1) and is my pick to play in the Super Bowl. As for this week, I think Smith and Manning will fare comparably, but neither will approach 30 fantasy points. Then again, who would have guessed we'd be discussing Alex Smith at all?
One final thing: Those participating in Gridiron Playoff Challenge should note that lineups can be changed this week, but not once Sunday's action begins. In other words, you can't wait until we know the Super Bowl teams and then choose those players for the finale. So while picking players, one must also pick the teams they think will win. You can see my picks to win this week's games from my GPC roster (my quarterback selection is the most telling), but I just wanted to explain why two teams are mostly represented, not a better cross-section as in prior weeks. In the case of one running back and the kicker, it's not really hedging, but the running back is the clear top choice, and he could do well enough this week -- as opposed to two games for Stevan Ridley, for example -- to warrant a roster spot, and with the kicker, it was simply about cost, which was locked in the prior week. My GPC lineup is right at the 50.0 cap.
Running backs


1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Frank Gore, 49ers
3. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
5. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
6. Kendall Hunter, 49ers
7. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
8. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
9. Ricky Williams, Ravens
10. D.J. Ware, Giants

Eric's Gridiron Challenge roster



Note: Eric Karabell's current roster in ESPN's Gridiron Playoff Challenge game. Create your own roster by clicking here.
QB: Tom Brady, Patriots (price: 7.1)
QB: Alex Smith, 49ers (6.1)
RB: Ray Rice, Ravens (6.5)
RB: Frank Gore, 49ers (6.1)
WR: Michael Crabtree, 49ers (4.9)
WR: Deion Branch, Patriots (5.2)
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (5.5)
K: Lawrence Tynes, Giants (3.8)
DEF: Patriots (4.8)


Analysis: While quarterbacks produced well last weekend, running backs did not. Arian Foster, Darren Sproles and Willis McGahee, the top three performers in terms of fantasy points Saturday/Sunday, saw their seasons end, and none of them produced monster numbers anyway. Other than Baltimore's Rice, who has produced 152, 126 and 159 total yards in three career games against the Patriots, there aren't any slam-dunk choices for this pending weekend. In other words, make sure you get Rice. He serves as Baltimore's best chance to avoid what Brady did last week, and I think it's worth it even if his team loses. If he totals 20 fantasy points, I still think that likely will top perhaps all of the Patriots' eligible running backs combined in two games.
I mean, look at what those crazy Patriots introduced against the Broncos: Tight end Aaron Hernandez not only lined up behind Brady but he broke off a 43-yard run, which seemed wise, smart, cunning and clever. Then the team gave him four other rushing attempts. It wasn't a one-play fluke. However, Hernandez does not bring running back eligibility to this week! I wouldn't trust any Patriots running backs; at least Law Firm could find the end zone while accumulating his 35 rushing yards. I wouldn't get cute and think Ridley gets opportunity, though. I do like Frank Gore, however, especially if he gets multiple games.
Wide receivers


1. Wes Welker, Patriots
2. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
3. Victor Cruz, Giants
4. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
5. Deion Branch, Patriots
6. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
7. Mario Manningham, Giants
8. Torrey Smith, Ravens
9. Kyle Williams, 49ers
10. Lee Evans, Ravens
11. Ted Ginn, 49ers
12. Brett Swain, 49ers
13. Ramses Barden, Giants
14. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots

Analysis: I wouldn't call any wide receivers must-haves, because the really good options --Welker, Nicks and Cruz -- don't have the same matchups they did last week. That said, I don't see the 49ers totally shutting down the Giants' passing game, but unlike the Saints, I'd think the Giants want to establish a running game. After choosing the quarterbacks, running backs and Gronkowski (some of them locked in at cheaper prices from the previous week), I couldn't afford Giants wide receivers this time around. But I was able to secure my Nos. 4 and 5 options. Remember, you're picking winners at this point as well, but this still is a deeper crew than at running back. One final note: Nice catch, Lee Evans!
Tight ends



1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
3. Vernon Davis, 49ers
4. Ed Dickson, Ravens
5. Jake Ballard, Giants
6. Delanie Walker, 49ers
7. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
8. Travis Beckum, Giants
9. Bear Pascoe, Giants
Analysis: Here it came down to choosing the guy providing the best tight end season of all-time, and continuing it during the playoffs, or a guy named Bear (Pascoe). I did go back and forth on this. Well, have you ever owned a guy named Bear? OK, let's get serious: Gronkowski and Davis each reached 30 fantasy points this past weekend. That's insane! Basically, you need to leave room at tight end for one of the top three options, though I feel compelled to point out that during the regular season, in terms of keeping tight ends in check for fantasy goodness, the Patriots and Ravens ranked second and third, respectively, at fewer than five points per game. Hmm, perhaps San Francisco's Davis is the wisest choice! I still went with Gronk. I see the Patriots playing two games. By the way, no team stopped tight ends like the St. Louis Rams. Interesting.
Kicker


1. David Akers, 49ers
2. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
3. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
4. Billy Cundiff, Ravens

Defense


1. 49ers
2. Patriots
3. Ravens
4. Giants

 

[HacheMan]

Matchups: Conference Round

Baltimore @ New England
Sunday 3:00ET

Ravens Must: Get big-time throws from Joe Flacco. In terms of physical skill set, Flacco is capable of shouldering an offensive load and pouring points on opponents with the pass game. Flacco's stumbling blocks have been deliberate in-pocket decision making and a wide receiver corps that struggles to create separation. No defense this season has shown the ability to stop New England's passing attack; double teaming Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker has resulted in monster games for Aaron Hernandez. The Ravens will have to rack up yards and points to keep pace, and the best way to do it against New England's porous secondary will be via Flacco's arm.

Patriots Must: Take away Ray Rice. The Ravens make it no secret that the rushing attack is their offensive foundation, and that Flacco is most effective managing games. Including the playoffs, Flacco has averaged just 26 pass attempts in his last eight contests while Rice has been Baltimore's offensive centerpiece. New England's run defense has stiffened lately, holding a Broncos rushing offense that ranked first in the league during the regular season to 144 yards on 40 Divisional round carries (3.6 YPC). The Pats were stuffing the run late in the game, even up by several touchdowns. Stopping Rice would effectively remove the Ravens from their comfort zone.

X-Factor: Patriots DT Kyle Love. A 6'1/310-pound fire hydrant, Love has emerged as arguably New England's top run defender a year removed from going undrafted out of Mississippi State. Teaming with more well-known Vince Wilfork, Love gives the Patriots two immovable big-bellied pluggers on the interior. Generating push against Ravens linemen Marshal Yanda, Matt Birk, and Ben Grubbs will be vital for New England's chances of containing Rice. When Rice gets to the perimeter, weak-side 'backer Jerod Mayo and safety Pat Chung must be there to clean up.

Why the Patriots Will Win: The Pats have the poorest defense left, but I still think they're capable of stopping what the Ravens do best offensively. Historically, Flacco has struggled in the second season. In eight career playoff games, he is 112-of-211 (53.1%) for 1,226 yards (5.81 YPA) with a 6:7 TD-to-INT ratio. While this isn't necessarily indicative of future performance, I think New England can score enough points and plug the run with enough efficiency to force the Baltimore offense to lean on Flacco. And Flacco has routinely come up short on the big stage.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23

NY Giants @ San Francisco
Sunday 6:30ET

Giants Must: Make Alex Smith play without Vernon Davis. Assigning safety Kenny Phillips to Davis may be coordinator Perry Fewell's best bet. While they've gotten better in the playoffs, it's worth noting that New York struggled mightily in tight end coverage to end the regular season. In their final nine games, the Giants allowed league highs in receptions (63) and touchdowns (8) to opponents at position, along with a weekly average of over 76 yards and seven catches. The stats suggest Davis will have a very big night if the Giants defend as they did for much of 2011, and loudmouthed Antrel Rolle did his team no service by lashing out at Davis in the media this week.

49ers Must: Keep forcing takeaways. The Niners set the tone in last week's Divisional round upset, as safety Donte Whitner delivered a fumble-causing blow to Pierre Thomas to kill a promising Saints first drive. All told, San Francisco created five turnovers against New Orleans. The 49ers can't count on Smith to repeat his career-best performance, but can control the game with their physical, aggressive defense. Individual matchups to watch include Tarell Brown on Hakeem Nicks, Carlos Rogers versus Victor Cruz in the slot, and Mario Manningham against rookie Chris Culliver. As a unit, the Niners' secondary played its best game of the year last week.

X-Factor: Giants center David Baas. 49ers defensive end Justin Smith was a one-man wrecking crew throughout the regular season, and finally caught national attention with a dominant showing against the Saints. Credited with a sack, tackle for loss, and five hurries, Smith was the most ferocious lineman of the Divisional round. On passing downs, Smith often rushes from the interior, where he'll attempt to split double teams from Baas and left guard Kevin Boothe. A former 49er, Baas lined up against Smith in practice for three seasons before defecting to New York in 2011. More so than any center in the league, Baas is familiar with Smith's moves and bull rush.

Why the Giants Will Win: The G-Men have been the best team in football for the past month. They've won each of their last four games by at least 15 points, defeating teams with a combined record of 41-20 (.672) and eliminating all four from the playoffs. To a far greater extent that the Saints did, I think New York's defense can affect Alex Smith and force him to make bad decisions. Expect a hard-fought, relatively low-scoring game with plenty of bone-crunching hits.

Prediction: Giants 20, 49ers 17

 

[HacheMan]

Perception vs. Reality: RBs

Each offseason and preseason we watch the news reports and slowly start to piece together our rankings and draft strategies. Across the fantasy football landscape, mock drafts accumulate into an Average Draft Position for each player. Of course, these vary list to list, but for the most part, the fake football world comes to some sort of a consensus that becomes enshrined into the acronym ADP.

I’m going to take a look at the 2011 ADP and compare it to what happened in the real world.

The first two columns are self explanatory but the third is less so. I’ve taken the statistics from each running back’s starts and extrapolated them to 16 games. It’s not an exact science by any means, but it allows us a different perspective when looking back at the season. The asterisk denotes players with less than eight starts, so their numbers are even more skewed than the others.

<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Top 20 ADP</td><td>Actual Top 20</td><td>Extrapolated Top 20</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1. Adrian Peterson</td><td>1. Ray Rice</td><td>1. Arian Foster</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>2. Ray Rice</td><td>2. LeSean McCoy</td><td>2. LeSean McCoy</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3. Arian Foster</td><td>3. Maurice Jones-Drew</td><td>3. Ray Rice</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>4. Chris Johnson</td><td>4. Arian Foster</td><td>4. Darren McFadden</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5. Jamaal Charles</td><td>5. Michael Turner</td><td>5. Fred Jackson</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>6. LeSean McCoy</td><td>6. Marshawn Lynch</td><td>6. Maurice Jones-Drew</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7. Rashard Mendenhall</td><td>7. Adrian Peterson</td><td>7. Adrian Peterson</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>8. Maurice Jones-Drew</td><td>8. Darren Sproles</td><td>8. C.J. Spiller*</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9. Darren McFadden</td><td>9. Ryan Mathews</td><td>9. Marshawn Lynch</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>10. Michael Turner</td><td>10. Steven Jackson</td><td>10. Jahvid Best*</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11. Frank Gore</td><td>11. Michael Bush</td><td>11. Michael Bush</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>12. Steven Jackson</td><td>12. Reggie Bush</td><td>12. Matt Forte</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13. Matt Forte</td><td>13. Frank Gore</td><td>13. Michael Turner</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>14. Peyton Hillis</td><td>14. Fred Jackson</td><td>14. Kevin Smith*</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15. LeGarrette Blount</td><td>15. Beanie Wells</td><td>15. Ryan Mathews</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>16. Felix Jones</td><td>16. Chris Johnson</td><td>16. Ahmad Bradshaw</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17. Shonn Greene</td><td>17. Matt Forte</td><td>17. Toby Gerhart*</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>18. Ahmad Bradshaw</td><td>18. Rashard Mendenhall</td><td>18. DeMarco Murray*</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19. Jahvid Best</td><td>19. Shonn Greene</td><td>19. Beanie Wells</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>20. Ryan Mathews</td><td>20. Ahmad Bradshaw</td><td>20. Steven Jackson</td></tr></tbody></table>
Adrian Peterson: All Day didn’t last all season but still managed to finish 7^th overall after missing four games and change due to injury. He was No. 1 on most ADP charts, but even with a full season, he would have finished out of the top-5. The pass- catching backs dominated this year, and AP didn’t get many receiving looks this season. But whether he’ll get receptions or not next season won’t be fantasy players' major concern. The concern will be how long it takes before he’s healthy enough to play again.

Ray Rice: Mr. Rice averaged out over the three lists the highest, and he was No. 1 in that all important real fake points list. He gained over 700 yards receiving, 1300 yards rushing, and without any goal line vultures hovering around, he finished with a career high 15 touchdowns. He was the complete package this season, and that plus a completely healthy year is how you become the champion fantasy back.

Arian Foster: Foster would have been the No. 1 ADP player if it wasn’t for a preseason hamstring injury. I mean really, why do people leave those hamstrings lying around for people to trip right over? He ended up missing three games total and left another early but still managed to finish fourth overall. If you took a risk on him after his injury, it very much paid off. He also averaged the most fantasy points per game which would have trumped even our man Mr. Rice in a perfect world. He is my frontrunner for the No. 1 pick next season.

Chris Johnson: His holdout dropped his ADP to No. 4 overall, and those who drafted him wished they’d gone ahead and waited until never to draft him. His season was about as pitiful as they come from someone who was healthy for the most part. He finished as the No. 16 fantasy running back, but on a per game basis, he was around No. 25, not even hitting double digit fantasy points per game in a standard format. His ADP will plummet next season, but will it fall far enough?

Jamaal Charles: He had 12 carries for 83 yards and five receptions for nine yards and a touchdown. What else do you want!? A full season? Well, you didn’t get it, but at least you didn’t have to watch him tentatively tiptoe up to the line and then fall down with the flick of a linebacker’s pinky like Chris Johnson owners were forced to endure every Sunday. Will JC be back at full force? I have no clue, but he did get his injury out of the way early, and he’s too talented not to take a risk on next season.

LeSean McCoy: Holy capitalized letters, this dude had a year. He only missed getting into the end zone in two of his starts, and he also missed Week 17 so in 13 games he scored 20 touchdowns. Here, let me figure this, carry the four, that’s 13 touchdowns a game! Wow! Oh wait, no, just 1.5. After he totaled 14 in his first two seasons, 20 wasn’t exactly on many people’s radars. And frankly, it won’t be again. He’s an unbelievably talented running back, but don’t ink 20 in for him next season.

Rashard Mendenhall: This was an odd season for Mendenhall. His rare every down back status led him to be ADP’d all the way at No. 7 overall, but he didn’t end up being used all that much as the Steelers relied on their real weapons – Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. The troubling news is this wasn’t an oversight by Tomlin and his staff because Mendenhall just hasn’t shown that he has the stuff and now will be coming off ACL surgery.

Maurice Jones-Drew: What can you say about MJD? The guy had one of the most amazing seasons I’ve ever seen. His numbers weren’t earth-shattering, but when you think of the offense he had to strap to his back, they certainly were. Blaine Gabbert averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game. That is by far the worst in the league. Really, if you want to check the bottom of the passing stats, you’re going to find the Jaguars firmly entrenched. With that kind of support, you’ll usually see any running back falter, but Jones-Drew finished first in rushing yards and third in fantasy points. Many doubted his knee coming into the season, including myself, but he was one of the few backs to play all 16 games. He’ll be 27 and still has some risk, but he proved a lot to me this season.

Darren McFadden: When you hear the term “upside” the person speaking is probably speaking of McFadden because he’s got a ton of it and sometimes it gets smacked upside his fantasy owner’s collective heads. If Run DMC had played all 16 games which is about as hypothetical as hypothetical gets he would have been a top 5 back. But we know that he did not play in those 16 games and that he rode a lot of teams’ benches for much of the season because he was going to be back any day now! And just like this season, next season I’ll draft him early again because I love getting hit over the head with upside.

Michael Turner: The Burner somehow continues to stay lit, and after dropping all the way to the No. 10 running back taken this season, he told y’all (and me too) that he still had some fuel left in the tank and finished as the fifth best fantasy back. That was largely due to the fact that he played all 16 games because his average per start drops him to No. 12 overall. He’ll be 30 next month, and even though in his first four seasons with San Diego he didn’t get much use, he does have three 300-carry seasons with the Falcons, and the eye test wasn’t too kind to him toward the end of this season.

Fred Jackson: We’ve looked at the top 10 ADPers from this season and how they fared, so I’m going to move on to Mr. Jackson. He was the No. 29 running back taken on average in drafts, and even with six games missed, he finished as the No.14 fantasy running back. He just keeps getting better with age. In only 10 games, he topped his numbers from last season on 52 less carries! With a full season, he would have been a top-5 fantasy back and been poised to continue into next season, but now he has a broken leg, is turning 31 next month and will be splitting time with C.J. Spiller who finally showed he can play after Jackson went down. That isn’t the best turn of events.

Marshawn Lynch: Lynch was taken just behind Fred Jackson in most drafts as the No. 30 running back. If you grabbed both of them in the middle rounds, you are probably smiling smugly right about now. Lynch scored a touchdown in 11 straight games and finished with 13 overall to go along with more than 1200 rushing yards and 200 receiving. This was a contract year for Lynch, and it showed Beast Mode style. Will his mode be less beastly after getting paid? Hard to say, but he’s only turning 26 this spring and looks to still have some anger to take out on defenders.

Darren Sproles: I’m really not sure how a Saints running back can finish as the No. 9 fantasy back in non-PPR leagues. Let me take another look. It says here he rushed 87 times for 603 yards and two touchdowns. Pfft! I could do that! (Not really, Darren. Nobody tell him I said that). Hmm, it does show this wide receiver that is also named Darren Sproles had 86 receptions for 710 yards and seven touchdowns. You know, if you put those two guys together, you’d have a lot of fantasy points. Both of the Sproles went off the fantasy boards as the No. 44 running back. Yes, No. 44.

Ryan Mathews: The often injured Mathews was able to cobble together a nice fantasy season. His preseason status was hotly debated. Could he stay healthy? How many TDs would Mike Tolbert steal from him? Can he live up to his potential if he does stay healthy? His ADP of 20 shows that the doubters outnumbered the believers. His week-to-week stats were all over the place due to nagging injuries and being Tolbertized, but when you add them all up, he finished with 1546 total yards and six TDs. If he can stay healthy enough to permanently relegate Mike Tolbert to backup status, he has the skills to be a top-5 back, which isn’t all that big a leap from his No. 9 finish this year.

Jahvid Best: This one was the hardest for me. I loved Best and all the Lions coming into this season, and he started out on fire, averaging more 13 fantasy points a game in standard leagues, but unfortunately, his multiple concussions caught up with him. With Mikel LeShoure and Kevin Smith in the mix, plus the concussion issues, it’s very difficult to project how he’ll do next season. As long as it looks like he’ll play, he’ll be worth a grab in PPR leagues, but I’ll be wary.

Michael Bush: Bush was selected mainly as McFadden insurance, and those that did so have hurt themselves by the non-stop back-patting. He was the No. 40 running back taken, which was just ahead of Ben Tate, Willis McGahee, C.J. Spiller, Darren Sproles and Roy Helu. Bush finished the season as the No. 11 fantasy back, and if he goes to a team that looks like they’ll give him 300 looks, he’ll be flying off draft boards much earlier next season.