Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Brady, Hernandez sharp at Patriots camp

Stephania Bell

What a great night for football in Foxborough, Mass.! Temperatures in the low 70s, excited fans in attendance, practice taking place under the lights inside Gillette Stadium, complete with referees, stadium announcer and JumboTron. It just felt like there was an extra bounce in everyone's step -- the coaches, the staff, the players -- as if everyone was happy -- no, thrilled -- to be on the field. This is just not how training camp usually feels. Something is different this year and it makes the prospect of the season ahead that much more enticing …
And yet there's the usual business of preseason football to tend to. Players added, players released and, my personal favorite, players on the mend from injury.

The New England Patriots are not dealing with the return-from-injury drama that has been their custom the past two years. In 2010, it was receiver Wes Welker returning from a torn ACL and MCL, surprising everyone with his rapid progress but keeping us guessing until the last minute as to whether he'd be ready to start the season. In 2009, quarterback and face-of-the-franchise Tom Brady was coming off a combined ACL/MCL surgery and many wondered whether he could return to form. Both players, it's safe to say, have indeed proven that these major injuries are behind them.
But there were a couple of health questions heading into the offseason. Brady had a right foot injury (stress fracture) last season which, although he managed to play through it, required surgery after the season. Tight end Aaron Hernandez had a right hip injury that cost him two games late in 2010. He, too, needed surgery to address the injury. With athletes rehabbing away from team facilities as a result of the lockout, it has really come down to seeing exactly how they are functioning in practice to appreciate their progress.
If there were any doubts about Brady's health, those can be put to rest immediately. Brady was heavily involved in Wednesday night's workout, sporting a lightweight knee brace on his left leg as is customary for him. He moved fluidly to both sides and his passes were on the mark. Brady made the work look effortless, another trademark of his, but it also sent a signal that his body was cooperating. He threw several nice passes to a recent Patriots acquisition, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who appeared to be working hard (even diving for a catch in the end zone!) and making himself at home.
One of the most interesting notes on the evening was the amount of work Hernandez did. Considering he started on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and only began practicing within the past few days, he looked less rusty than expected. Most importantly, he ran both soft and hard routes, decelerating hard and cutting to either side without apparent limitation. At one point, he leaned in an attempt to make a catch (he did not succeed) and went to the ground, face down, only to pop up quickly and get back in line for the next round. That dive was perhaps the most confidence-inspiring move he made all night, showing he could hit the dirt and get right back up afterward. Hernandez was a frequent target, including in red zone drills, and while there's work to be done, his movement was encouraging. His counterpart, Rob Gronkowski, looked especially strong Wednesday night, as well, making impressive catches in the red zone.
A few other observations on the night:
• Veteran left tackle Matt Light spoke to the media before practice about being back in New England and having the lockout behind him. As a player rep he was very in tune with the happenings of the past few months. He noted that Patriots owner Robert Kraft brought "leadership and experience" to the negotiation process, something that benefited everyone involved. Light indicated that he felt many of his teammates had stayed in great shape working out on their own and added that given the shortened practices, increased "mental reps" are much more important this year.
• Rookie running back Shane Vereen looked speedy-fast. Quick bursts. Impressive. And then he left with an apparent injury. No word on the specifics or the severity, although he appeared to stop short during a drill as if he strained a hamstring. Certainly everyone is hoping it's nothing serious.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis spoke to reporters before practice and quietly said how glad he is to be back with this team. He is not able to practice with the team until tomorrow after the CBA is ratified but he was present on the sidelines, saying he's "itching to get back on the field."
• Ochocinco got the loudest crowd cheers whenever he made a big catch (especially a 40-yard beauty down the sideline early in practice), with Welker coming in second on the applause-o-meter.
• Brady has cut his hair. No more Justin Bieber references for him.
• Ryan Mallett is long and tall and can sling the ball. Both he and Brian Hoyer landed a couple of balls in an empty garbage can from more than 25 yards out, showing they could snag the extra-large toy at the proverbial carnival. It didn't seem to threaten Brady's starter status even though he failed to get the hole-in-one.
• After the group sessions were over, Ochocinco did some extra work on pass routes with Brady and Welker, with a lot of three- way dialogue going on throughout. Practice. Teaching. Learning. This is a good sign if you're looking for fantasy points (or just Patriots points) from these three.
• And finally, as the workouts ended, members of the Patriots circled the stadium and, as it should be on Fan Night, signed autographs and shook hands with those who came to watch them practice. But somehow, on this night, it just felt different, as if everyone was happy -- no, thrilled -- to be back playing football.

 

[HacheMan]

Who will emerge in Redskins backfield?

By Eric Karabell

Perhaps I was a bit harsh in referring to new Washington Redskins running back Tim Hightower as a "wasted pick" in my mock draft reaction blog Wednesday. I do think it was a smart move by the beleaguered Redskins -- it really might be a wasted season for them -- to acquire the former Arizona Cardinals back on the cheap (if you view a late draft pick and defensive end Vonnie Holliday as cheap) and add to their questionable depth. After all, in his three seasons in the NFL, Hightower has produced a double-digit touchdown season, had another season with 63 receptions and last season averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Wow, if only all three of those things could have happened in one glorious campaign!


In truth, the reason why I could see myself not sticking with Hightower in a fantasy league is the uncertainty surrounding him, given Mike Shanahan's "go-with-your-gut" system of choosing whom he trusts to run the football. Honestly, it's been tough to tell in recent (all ?) seasons what the guy is thinking. In his Denver Broncos days, Shanahan seemed to go with a different running back each season after the Terrell Davis era ended (Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell), and his first season in Washington was no different. Former Bronco Ryan Torain was the surprise choice after Clinton Portis flamed out, Keiland Williams blew his chance and … remember when people thought James Davis was also in the mix?
So my evaluation of Hightower as a wasted 13th-round pick in a mock draft doesn't really do the guy justice; rather, it speaks more to his situation. Hightower is not a bad player, though he has done his best work catching the ball and finding the end zone, and doesn't project as a lead back. That 4.8 yards-per-carry thing can't be described as a total fluke, but it would be hard to see him do it again. And he did it on 153 carries, which leads me to think if he had 50 more, that average probably drops quite a bit. Hightower also has had trouble holding on to the football, an issue that will not ingratiate him with his new coach. But I can't argue against him getting opportunity.
I think Torain, currently dealing with a hand injury that doesn't figure to be a big deal, is the first choice for the most carries in Washington, but it needs to be said that he hasn't been the most durable fellow in his career. In fact, he hasn't played very much at all, whether it's because of his bruising running style or simply bad luck. Rookie Roy Helu is talented and speedy, but he has a lot to learn. Could he end up as Shanahan's top choice? Of course, Shanahan has gone with rookies before. In fact, Helu is a sleeper in part because of his coach, because the overall situation -- it's crowded, the QB deal might be really bad -- isn't positive. Hightower and Helu aren't bad picks in a standard draft as long as it's late -- after the 12th round perhaps?  and your expectations are in check. They have ability. And they might have the right coach, someone who is willing to try anything. The very first Redskins player chosen in the recent mock draft was Torain in Round 8. A round later, top wide receiver Santana Moss came off the board, and Helu went in the 10th round. Personally, I think Helu is just as likely to be a wasted pick -- or a significant one, if things break right -- as Hightower is. Hmm, you know what? I feel a bit better about my 13th-round choice, pick No. 130 overall. What a pick! Or not. Depends how Shanahan is feeling.

 

[HacheMan]

Brown no threat to McCoy's value

Christopher Harris
ESPN.com


The Eagles certainly are going for it.


Let's list the big names they've acquired this summer. Vince Young. Nnamdi Asomugha. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Cullen Jenkins. Jason Babin. And now they've picked up Ronnie Brown.

Listen, Brown is never going to be a golden god in fantasy. The days of his big-time potential are gone. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry in his final season with the Dolphins, and managed exactly one 1,000-yard season in six years. He was often an injury waiting to happen. Yes, he was a linchpin in the ascension of the Wildcat offense, tormenting the big, bad New England Patriots one September afternoon in 2008 to the tune of four TDs, but defenses figured out that formation rather quickly, and by '10 it was but a footnote in the Miami offense.


But as a backup in Philadelphia? Sure, I'm on board with that. Before the Eagles signed Brown Monday afternoon, rookie Dion Lewis was nominally LeSean McCoy's backup, and that was never going to fly, as Lewis is approximately the size of Winona Ryder. Brown would be able to pick up the slack for a game or two if McCoy gets hurt. Plus he's a very good pass catcher, and thus will be hailed as a natural fit in Andy Reid's offense. That sounds all well and good, but the fact is that McCoy is a much better pass catcher (he registered an NFL-high 78 grabs in '10, compared to Brown's career high of 39 in '07), so he's not getting yanked much in favor of Ronnie.


And that's why I don't view this roster move by the Eagles as any kind of death blow to McCoy's fantasy value. Where exactly is Brown going to lunge forward and steal a ton of looks? On third downs? It's possible, but McCoy is probably better in that role. On first and second downs? The Eagles aren't ever going to be a run-straight-at-you kind of squad with the speed they've got at QB and on the outside, and I'm not sure Brown has much left in the tank as a power back anyway. At the end zone? That's a possibility, but was anyone projecting many short TDs for McCoy anyway?


Do I think Brown is a worthy late-round handcuff to McCoy owners? I can see that logic. Shady is a pretty small guy himself and toughed through some minor injuries last year; one good shot and he could miss time. Outside of that, though, I think this is a good insurance move by the Eagles, and not much else. If you were anticipating taking McCoy late in the first round of your fantasy draft later this month, I don't think this does anything to alter your plans.

 

[HacheMan]

Kyle Orton to win Broncos gig?

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

So much for Tebowmania?


According to multiple reports from Broncos beat writers, Tim Tebow has been thoroughly outplayed by Kyle Orton in training camp, to the extent that team officials are now proclaiming that not only will Orton not be traded, but he's the team's clear No. 1 quarterback. That's a huge reversal from the accepted party line all summer, which proclaimed that the Broncos would get a midround draft pick for Orton and give Tebow a shot at translating his running and leadership skills into being an NFL starter.

Now, let me pump the brakes here a minute. The Dolphins were reportedly relatively close to trading for Orton a week or so ago, although they claim that no official offer was made. That could just be semantics; insiders suggest the biggest sticking point to a deal wasn't draft-pick compensation, but rather contract negotiations between the Dolphins and Orton. The Dolphins have subsequently hitched their wagon to Matt Moore's star (Moore will likely back up Chad Henne), which sounds awful to me. They or some other team could easily still come calling, either during August or once the season begins. Those who say an Orton trade is definitively dead are, I think, overstating the case. Orton will absolutely not get traded right up until the moment he does (if he does). I don't believe it's an impossibility, and so Tebow isn't completely out of the running here.


Still, it's foolish to ignore observers who claim Tebow isn't throwing well, so for the moment let's take the news at face value: Orton is the No. 1 QB in Denver, and Tebow will battle with Brady Quinn for backup duties. What does this mean for fantasy?


Orton was on his way to a very nice season with Josh McDaniels at the helm last year: He began with five straight games of at least 295 yards passing, and through Week 10 was legitimately still in the Pro Bowl conversation. But he crashed and burned thereafter, and lost his starting job. It's tempting to say he could build on 2010's fine start, only I'm not so sure John Fox wants it that way. No, Fox isn't Bud Grant or Chuck Noll. He's not an archconservative playcaller. But he's not a wild-and-crazy passing guy, either: He plays as close to the vest as his defense will allow him. The Broncos will still probably give up a lot of points this year, so they'll have to throw some. But I think it's fair to say Fox's tendencies don't allow him to throw down the field nearly as much as McDaniels'.


Because of this, and because of the specter of Tebow jumping in at any time, I'd hesitate to consider Orton anywhere near a fantasy starter even in a 12-team league. But in today's NFL, with a passel of ugly QB situations, he probably is a top-20 option. Tebow, on the other hand, is nothing but a (very) late-round gamble. He could rush for some TDs in specialty packages. He could take over the job at some point and play passably well. But it's often difficult to carry an inexperienced backup QB on a standard-league fantasy roster.


The real question ESPN standard-league players have about the Broncos' offense may be: Does this news make Brandon Lloyd any more attractive? After all, this was fantasy's No. 1 wideout last season, and as a group our panel of experts ranked him 17th at his position. Does this news make a repeat of last season more likely? My short answer is: No.


Lloyd derived much of his '10 value from running down the field and catching bombs. His 15.9 yards-at-the-catch average was the highest for any receiver with at least 40 grabs last year. Though he and Orton made some sweet music together, that came under McDaniels. I don't see Fox authorizing the same throw-it-up-in-the-air-and-let-Brandon-go-get-it playbook. In his very best season, Carolina's Steve Smith's top yards-at-the-catch average was 12.6, and his second-best was 10.0. Heck, according to STATS, Inc., no Panthers receiver under Fox ever beat that 12.6 mark.


Add to the fact that Lloyd still has the whiff of a "one-year wonder" about him (he'd been in the NFL seven seasons before his breakout '10 campaign), and I think a No. 17 ranking among WRs is frankly generous. Personally, I don't think I'd have him in my top 20, regardless of whether Orton stays the starting QB all year.

 

[HacheMan]

Are we underrating Seattle's offense?

By Eric Karabell

I admit I might be wrong about new Seattle Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. My theory is that Jackson is probably never going to be a terrific player, because we've seen enough of a sample size from his Minnesota Vikings days. Thus some of the impressive moves the Seahawks have made around him, notably in getting weapons at wide receiver and tight end and improving the offensive line, might not make quite the fantasy impact we would hope. For example, I like Kevin Kolb. Had the Philadelphia Eagles traded Kolb to Seattle instead of the Arizona Cardinals, I believe we'd all be viewing Sidney Rice, Tuesday acquisition Zach Miller and probably even running back Marshawn Lynch in a different way.

The truth is it's been hard to be impressed by Jackson. He hasn't been playing in a poor organization, either. Jackson always had a top running back -- perhaps the top running back -- and wide receiver weapons. The Vikings were competitive if not NFC contenders during his stay. Jackson has made 20 starts over a five-year period and -- I probably don't need to quote the numbers here -- hasn't been exceptional. But the Vikings saw something in him … and now Pete Carroll and the Seahawks do.
Perhaps Jackson is better than we think?
<OFFER>Today, in early August, I won't be moving Jackson into my top 20 among quarterbacks. ESPN Fantasy currently ranks Jackson No. 31 at the position, worse than Carolina Panthers rookie Cam Newton, who might not even start now that the awesome Derek Anderson has been acquired. San Francisco 49ers annual disappointment Alex Smith is ranked better. Not one but two Denver Broncos passers are better! Suffice to say, we're not big fans of Jackson, who is described as "a gifted runner, but Jackson just doesn't have the throwing accuracy or decision-making chops to be an above-average signal-caller." From everything I've seen, I have to concur.
And let's also be clear: Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Marshawn Lynch aren't exactly Jerry Rice, Dwight Clark and Roger Craig, either. Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst are probably never going to be Joe Montana and Steve Young. It is still possible Whitehurst, whom the Seahawks traded quite a bit in terms of draft picks to acquire from the San Diego Chargers, starts over Jackson. I have to say, and I don't mean to be negative, Whitehurst didn't exactly impress last season, either. Just because a team trades multiple draft picks to get a fellow doesn't make him good.
We've pretty much established that the Seahawks might not be any better at quarterback than they were last season, which is why I have to admit I would have liked Sidney Rice and Zach Miller a bit more had they remained on their old teams. Miller was the guy with the Oakland Raiders, leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and targets. He caught nearly a third of the team's 18 touchdown passes. Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski weren't Pro Bowlers, either, but Miller seemed to be in a good spot. The Raiders didn't have anyone like Sidney Rice to share the football with. They have a better running game. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing Miller did, choosing the money and a team that did, um, win a division title, but his fantasy prospects didn't improve.
Miller is probably a borderline top-10 tight end now. He is a terrific deep-pattern option, but the Seahawks are probably going to keep incumbent John Carlson employed as well, which doesn't help. I'd choose Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley over Miller; as a Raider I might not have. And I like Greg Olsen in Carolina, too. Miller is good, but if Jackson/Whitehurst can't be, I'm a bit more skeptical than I would have been.

 

[HacheMan]

Making sense of the NFL frenzy
Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie is right: Philadelphia doesn't have a "dream team." They aren't even the NFC favorites.

Vegas oddsmakers may disagree, but Green Bay and New Orleans look more likely to make the Super Bowl from this laptop. Throw Atlanta into the mix and the NFC appears awfully top-heavy. The rich got richer over the last two weeks.

While the Eagles aren't some super team, they certainly are fascinating. And they didn't have to pay a lot to improve their roster.

Coach Andy Reid picked up a Pro Bowl cornerback (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in exchange for a backup quarterback (Kevin Kolb). They replaced Kolb with a more talented backup quarterback. (Vince Young.) Top free agent prize Nnamdi Asomugha came in at a price barely higher per-year than recent deals for vastly inferior players like Stanford Routt and Champ Bailey.

The Eagles improved their defensive line depth with Cullen Jenkins without paying a lot of guaranteed money. They picked up two of the better offensive line bargains in Ryan Harris and Evan Mathis. Even the big deal for Jason Babin could be a short-term affair if he doesn't produce.

It looked like Philly spent like crazy, but they mostly made smart low-cost bets. Lurie, President Joe Banner, and G.M. Howie Roseman didn't mortgage the future to go for it just this year. They are in a position to remain aggressive in the long run.

This isn't the NBA; a couple players don't necessarily put you over the top. The Eagles know better than anyone that their pickups are only a small piece of the complex, ever-surprising puzzle that is an NFL season.

The players that were on the Eagles last year (hello, Mr. Vick) will make a far bigger difference. The Eagles have a shot. A lot of teams have a shot.

If offseason headlines translated to wins, Redskins owner Dan Snyder would be drowning in Lombardi trophies.

Editor's Note:It's draft guide season. We are updating our rankings and projections every day and adding content all month. So check it out, won't you?

[SIZE=+1]Winning the NFC West[/SIZE]

The worst division in football looks more confusing than ever. Pete Carroll's Seahawks took a step back with Tarvaris Jackson signed to start at quarterback. The Cardinals upgraded at quarterback with Kevin Kolb, but their offensive line and defense are full of holes.

The 49ers stuck with Alex Smith, slightly upgraded at cornerback going from Nate Clements to Carlos Rogers, and gambled on Braylon Edwards. They are counting on new coach Jim Harbaugh to make all the difference.

The Rams are the team with the clearest plan and look like the division favorites. They built around a strong pass rush and young quarterback Sam Bradford last year. This offseason, they filled in positions of need with sensible under the radar signings. Speaking of which ...

[SIZE=+1]5 teams that quietly got better. [/SIZE]

1. St. Louis: Guard Harvey Dahl from Atlanta will add nastiness to the Rams running attack. Safety Quintin Mikell shores up a shaky secondary, and coach Steve Spagnuolo knows just how to use him from their days together in Philly. Defensive tackle Justin Bannan adds a capable body for the team's interior line. Wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker adds a low-cost burner to a receiver group needing someone to emerge.

This is how you succeed in free agency: Bring in contributors without paying them like stars. G.M. Billy Devaney and coach Steve Spagnuolo have done a nice job re-making this roster.

2. Atlanta: All offseason, we wondered how the Falcons would replace their three free agent starting linemen. It turns out they were able to keep their two youngest guys – right tackle Tyson Clabo and guard Justin Blalock – at fair prices.

Because of the depressed market, they were able to keep both players and have leftover money for pass rusher Ray Edwards. The former Viking is exactly the type of player that usually gets overpaid in free agency. But Atlanta brought in the solid starter for less than half Carolina paid Charles Johnson. Atlanta attacked their two biggest areas of need without breaking the bank.

3. Kansas City: The Chiefs improved their wideout depth and team speed with Steve Breaston. His five-year, $9 million contract was among the best values in free agency. Fullback Le'Ron McClain adds more toughness to an excellent running game. Nose tackle Kelly Gregg adds leadership to an underrated defensive line, and linebacker Brandon Siler has plenty of upside for a low price.

There was value out there in free agency this year, and G.M. Scott Pioli found it.

4. New Orleans: The Saints were in a tough spot with the most free agents (29) of any team. They let a few unnecessary pieces go, and aggressively re-signed key guys like safety Roman Harper, wideout Lance Moore, and tackle Jermon Bushrod.

Replacing Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles at running back was a win on the field that saved money and drama off the field. Nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin was the best run-stopper available in free agency and the Saints got him at a reduced price. Pair him with February pickup Shaun Rogers, along with incumbent Sedrick Ellis, and the Saints defensive line looks scary.

They won't get the attention of the Eagles or Packers, but the Saints should be viewed right next to them as NFC favorites.

5. Green Bay: It was comical to hear some Packers fans gripe about G.M. Ted Thompson staying quiet in free agency. What did you expect?

Thompson's discipline to rely on drafting and developing works. Bringing back wideout James Jones was a pleasant surprise, and the Packers didn't have room for many more free agents.

That's because Green Bay gets back starters Jermichael Finley, Ryan Grant, Mike Neal, and Brad Jones from injury last year, among others. That's just as strong as any free agent class.

[SIZE=+1]Buyer's market[/SIZE]

The free agent market was flooded with talent, and teams didn't have time to sign players and integrate them into their systems. That led to a lot of cheap short-term deals for quality players.

High end rookies were the sacrificial lambs of this new CBA, but the free agent classes of 2010 and 2011 got a raw deal. They took one for the team.

[SIZE=+1]Trouble spots[/SIZE]

1. Miami quarterback: The Dolphins said all offseason they wanted true competition for quarterback Chad Henne. Instead, they got Matt Moore. Miami didn't go all in on Kyle Orton trade talks, betting Henne would be enough.

2. Bears offensive line: The Bears sniffed around the tackle market, but never closed a meaningful deal. They will move untested second year player J'Marcus Webb to the left side and start rookie Gabe Carimi on the right. Meanwhile, franchise mainstay Olin Kreutz left the team after a contract standoff and there is no great option to replace him.

Fear not Bears fans: You guys did win the Roy Williams and Vernon Gholston sweepstakes.

3. Lions cornerback: They wanted to get Johnathan Joseph, but came up short. Detroit has the makings of a contending team, but their secondary looks shaky at best. Signing Eric Wright from Cleveland was a worthwhile gamble.

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[SIZE=+1]Shaky Strategies[/SIZE]

1. Jacksonville: The Jaguars gave $37 million guaranteed and $99.5 million overall to pick up three defensive starters: linebacker Paul Poslusnzy, linebacker Clint Session, and safety Dawan Landry.

The Jaguars overpaid because it's "go time" in their three-year rebuilding process. G.M. Gene Smith has drafted very well, but paying big signing bonuses to middling starters rarely pays off. The three players above will never make a Pro Bowl and they are all getting paid like stars. That creates salary structure problems now and in the future.

It's telling that the Ravens didn't try to keep Landry. Former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan didn't try to bring him to New York. He's just another safety, and those guys were out there for one-year, $3 million contracts.

2. Washington: There is a misconception that the Redskins didn't spend. They spent plenty, just not well.

Stephen Bowen was a backup in Dallas and got more than $10 million guaranteed. Barry Cofield was a good, not great rotation player in New York. He got paid $12.5 million guaranteed on a big six-year deal.

Offensive linemen Chris Chester and Jammal Brown were coming off poor seasons and got big money. The Redskins wanted Santonio Holmes and struck out. They wanted Ravens guard Marshall Yanda and came up short.

Oh, and John Beck is still the starting quarterback. This is happening. He has the worst combination of wideouts and running backs in football to support him.

3. Raiders: They kept the wrong guys, for too much. Cornerback Stanford Routt got more-per-year in March than our No. 2 overall free agent Johnathan Joseph got from the Texans. Oakland spent so much to retain Richard Seymour, Michael Huff, and Kamerion Wimbley that they couldn't afford to keep Zach Miller, their most consistent offensive player.

The offensive line oddly got short shrift and looks like a mess. Deals with Jared Gaither and Mario Henderson blew up because of weight problems and failed physicals. I like what coach Hue Jackson is selling, but his front office did him no favors: The Raiders lost their best player (Nnamdi Asomugha), best offensive lineman (Robert Gallery), and offensive leader (Miller).

[SIZE=+1]Are the Colts vulnerable? [/SIZE]

The Colts were more active in free agency than usual, taking low-cost gambles on former first-round picks like Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson. Still, there is a sense this team is vulnerable with Peyton Manning sidelined following another neck surgery.

The Jaguars believe they are ready to compete after carefully building up their roster the last two years under G.M. Gene Smith. We like Houston's chances of emerging better.

Wade Phillips has provided immediate results everywhere he's hired as a defensive coordinator. The cupboard wasn't bare in Houston; there is enough to talent here to be average right away. Average would be a big improvement for the Texans defense, and it would allow a primed offense to win games.

Houston smartly spent their free agent resources on the secondary. Johnathan Joseph was a huge get at cornerback and Danieal Manning will help improve a miserable safety situation from a year ago. The Texans are ready to contend. This time we mean it.

[SIZE=+1]Rolling the dice[/SIZE]

1. Patriots acquire Albert Haynesworth. Adding Chad Ochocinco will be good for Patriots writers, but Haynesworth matters more to the Patriots' success. Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork could wreak havoc on opposing offenses if Good Albert shows in New England. Bill Belichick hasn't had enough premier talent to work with in recent years and Haynesworth's talent is without question.

Nothing would surprise here. Haynesworth could be the most valuable player on the entire defense or he could get cut in training camp. In Bill they trust.

2. Seahawks sign Sidney Rice. Tarvaris Jackson isn't really a risk; he's a stop-gap solution at quarterback with a limited ceiling. Rice is something far different.

The fifth-year player has exactly one productive season as a pro. He's struggled with injuries and he's also flashed top-five receiver skills. The Seahawks have repeatedly wasted money on other teams' wideouts. For the money Rice is making, he has to play like a star.

3. 49ers stick with Alex Smith, sign Braylon Edwards. San Francisco is betting an entire season on the belief coach Jim Harbaugh can get something from Smith that previous coaches haven't. The 49ers are also betting they can control a player in Edwards that even Rex Ryan didn't want to deal with any longer.

4. Jets sign Plaxico Burress. After two years in prison, the Jets signed Plaxico Burress without even seeing him in person. They better hope he doesn't need a year to get his legs back like Michael Vick did.

5. Giants go young on offensive line. Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert were leaders for the Giants during their Super Bowl run, and now they are looking for work. The moves make sense, but that doesn't make this transition any easier for Big Blue.

Football Season has started

The last two weeks have been a blast for football junkies. Now the excitement rolls right into preseason games next week, with no real let-up until the Super Bowl.

It all almost makes the lockout seem worthwhile. Football is one helluva drug.

 

[HacheMan]

The Mispricing Factor: Draft strategies and tactics

By Jeff Brazil


So Seth Klarman is the Bill Belichick of investing. He’s one of those guys whom everybody who’s in the know in investing circles watches and wishes they could be like in their next life. When it comes to investments, he’s a zagger, when everybody else is a zigger. Klarman once loaded up on Texaco bonds after the company filed for bankruptcy. He scooped up the bonds at a heady discount because everybody else was shedding them. But Klarman’s research told him the company would eventually rebound and he was spot-on. More recently, one of the stocks he invested in (a biotech firm called Facet) has increased in value a cool 196 percent in the last year. Klarman’s also like Belichick in that he keeps a low profile and doesn’t reveal much, but his investment strategy pivots mostly around a single theme: mispricings. And it turns out Klarman’s actually a devotee of another investment legend, John Templeton, who started his investment rainmaking during the Depression, and one of the quotes attributed to him is, “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

The takeaway: if you want to pull out all the stops to try to capture a fantasy title in 2011, go back to well-tuned practices that the Bill Belichicks of the investment world use to correctly price future opportunities and adapt them for fantasy football, namely:
• Recognize that the “masses” and the ever-expanding cosmos of so-called “experts” will be wrong a significant portion of the time in their advice (For the latest science on why this is the case in many aspects of life, check out this recent article, Why Experts Get It Wrong: http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/04/why-experts-get-it-wrong/73322/)
• Do the work necessary to identify players who fall on both sides of the “mispricing” ledger – those whose current value is overstated and those whose current value is understated.
• Aggressively sweep up those players who are positioned to perform better than the masses and “experts” predict.
• Be confident in your plan on draft day (and during the season, for that matter), and shake off the weak-minded hordes of doubters, critics, skeptics, haters.
With the time for fantasy drafts here at last, this article aims to help you do all of those things by highlighting three main criteria or tactics to consider as you prepare for your draft:
1. Identifying mispriced players
2. Securing separation from other teams in your league, regardless of your draft position
3. Using “unfair advantage” as a player-selection criterion

DRAFT CRITERION NO. 1: THE MISPRICING FACTOR
Most people don’t get it. They don’t understand how off-the-mark preseason fantasy rankings can be – and always will be. They’re a critical planning tool, and no one does it better and smarter than the team at FantasyGuru.com, whose preseason rankings, analysis, and insights are elite.
But, in 2010, of the 60 players ranked by most preseason publications in the top 20 at QB, RB, and WR, slightly more than half – 35 – actually finished in the top 60.
The list of disappointing mispricings included players like QBs Kevin Kolb(notes) (ranked 12th, finished 36th), Brett Favre(notes) (ranked 8th, finished 29th); RBs Frank Gore(notes) (ranked 6th, finished 20th), DeAngelo Williams(notes) (ranked 8th, finished 61st), Ryan Grant(notes) (ranked 9th, finished 117th), Shonn Greene(notes) (ranked 12th, finished 37th), Beanie Wells(notes) (ranked 14th, finished 57th); WRs Randy Moss(notes) (ranked 2nd, finished 67th), Brandon Marshall(notes) (ranked 5th, finished 28th), Steve Smith-Panthers (ranked 10th, finished 73rd), Steve Smith-Giants (ranked 13th, finished 63rd).
Note: The 2010 rankings above were more general consensus rankings, not necessarily FantasyGuru.com rankings.
Let’s remove the QBs from this list – because, relatively speaking, there was more fantasy stability at QB in 2010 than the other skill positions: Of the 40 players in 2010 ranked by most preseason publications in the top 20 at RB and WR, 22 finished there.
What this also means, of course, is that many players who were not part of the consensus top picks in the preseason cracked that list at season’s end:
The 2010 Mispricing All-Stars
<TABLE width=500><TBODY><TR><TD>Running Backs </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Arian Foster(notes) </TD><TD>23 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Jamaal Charles(notes) </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Peyton Hillis(notes) </TD><TD>63 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Darren McFadden(notes) </TD><TD>38 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR><TD>LeSean McCoy(notes) </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Matt Forte(notes) </TD><TD>21 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) </TD><TD>33 </TD><TD>14 </TD></TR><TR><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis(notes) </TD><TD>96 </TD><TD>15 </TD></TR><TR><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) </TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Tolbert(notes) </TD><TD>88 </TD><TD>19 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Fred Jackson(notes) </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>21 </TD></TR><TR><TD>LeGarrette Blount(notes) </TD><TD>87 </TD><TD>24 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Bush(notes) </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>26 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Danny Woodhead(notes) </TD><TD>107 </TD><TD>28 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ryan Torain(notes) </TD><TD>91 </TD><TD>29 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wide Receivers </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Lloyd(notes) </TD><TD>123 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Dwayne Bowe(notes) </TD><TD>20 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Wallace(notes) </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Hakeem Nicks(notes) </TD><TD>24 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Johnson </TD><TD>87 </TD><TD>10 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Williams (TB) </TD><TD>57 </TD><TD>12 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Terrell Owens(notes) </TD><TD>33 </TD><TD>15 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Mario Manningham(notes) </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>17 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Kenny Britt(notes) </TD><TD>46 </TD><TD>21 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Lance Moore(notes) </TD><TD>68 </TD><TD>27 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Deion Branch(notes) </TD><TD>101 </TD><TD>28 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Quarterbacks </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Vick(notes) </TD><TD>34 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Josh Freeman(notes) </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
In 2010, of the consensus top-10 players at RB and WR in the preseason, only 9 of the 20 players – now we’re actually below 50 percent – finished there. Five WRs (Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald(notes), Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith-CAR, Miles Austin(notes)) and six RBs (Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson(notes), and Maurice Jones-Drew(notes)) all fell short of expectations.
2010 was no oddity. In 2009, of the 30 players ranked by most preseason publications in the top 10 at QB, RB, and WR, 16 finished in the top 30. The list of 14 disappointing mispricings included players like QBs Matt Ryan(notes) (ranked 7th, finished 19th), Matt Cassel(notes) (ranked 8th, finished 20th), RBs Steve Slaton(notes) (ranked 9th, finished 35th), Brian Westbrook(notes) (ranked 10th, finished 59th).
Again, what this also means is that 14 players who were not part of the consensus top 30 when the 2009 season began appeared on that list when the season was over:
The 2009 Mispricing All-Stars
<TABLE width=500><TBODY><TR><TD>Running Backs </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Chris Johnson </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ray Rice(notes) </TD><TD>25 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones(notes) </TD><TD>24 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ricky Williams(notes) </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ryan Grant </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Joseph Addai(notes) </TD><TD>23 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wide Receivers </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Miles Austin </TD><TD>65+ </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>DeSean Jackson(notes) </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Sidney Rice(notes) </TD><TD>61 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Vincent Jackson(notes) </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Quarterbacks </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Brett Favre </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ben Roethlisberger(notes) </TD><TD>13 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Back in 2008, 18 of the top 30 players at QB, RB, and WR – almost two-thirds – didn’t finish in the top 10 at their positions. If you followed most preseason rankings and drafted players like QBs Derek Anderson(notes) (ranked 7th, finished 22nd), Ben Roethlisberger (ranked 5th, finished 18th), or RBs Joseph Addai (ranked 5th, finished 38th), Larry Johnson(notes) (ranked 10th, finished 29th), or WR Plaxico Burress(notes) (ranked 9th, finished 59th), then you know this better than anyone.
There were 18 new names in the top 30 in 2008:
The 2008 Mispricing All-Stars
<TABLE width=500><TBODY><TR><TD>Running Backs </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>DeAngelo Williams </TD><TD>34 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Turner(notes) </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Matt Forte </TD><TD>30 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones </TD><TD>21 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Slaton </TD><TD>75 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>MJD </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wide Receivers </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Jennings(notes) </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Roddy White(notes) </TD><TD>18 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Antonio Bryant(notes) </TD><TD>71 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Calvin Johnson(notes) </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Smith (CAR) </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Quarterbacks </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Aaron Rodgers(notes) </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Philip Rivers(notes) </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Kurt Warner(notes) </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Chad Pennington(notes) </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Let’s go back one more year. In 2007, six of the QBs ranked in the preseason top 10 finished in that tier. The other four (Marc Bulger(notes), Donovan McNabb(notes), Matt Leinart(notes), and Vince Young(notes)) finished anywhere from 12th to 53rd at the QB position. At RB, 40 percent of the top-10 preseason picks in 2007 panned out; the other 60 percent (Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander(notes), Willie Parker(notes), Rudi Johnson(notes), and Travis Henry(notes)) finished between the 14th and 47th best at the RB position in 2007. At WR, 50 percent of the top picks graded out there. Five of the top-10 WR picks ended up in that first tier, while the other half (Steve Smith-CAR, Marvin Harrison(notes), Torry Holt(notes), Donald Driver(notes), and Roy E. Williams) ended up ranked 17th to 101st.
Of the top 30 players in 2007, 15 were not expected to be there prior to the season.
The 2007 Mispricing All-Stars
<TABLE width=500><TBODY><TR><TD>Running Backs </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Adrian Peterson </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>4 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Clinton Portis(notes) </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Jamal Lewis(notes) </TD><TD>24 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Marion Barber(notes) </TD><TD>22 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Willis McGahee(notes) </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Wide Receivers </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Braylon Edwards(notes) </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR><TD>TJ Houshmandzadeh(notes) </TD><TD>14 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Marques Colston(notes) </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>8 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Marshall </TD><TD>49 </TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Quarterbacks </TD><TD>Preseason Rank </TD><TD>Actual Rank </TD></TR><TR><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Derek Anderson </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Brett Favre </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD>Kurt Warner </TD><TD>46 </TD><TD>10 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This is actually the case each and every year. It doesn’t matter how far back you go. Ranking fantasy players before a single regular season snap is a tough game to be in. Only people who don’t understand fantasy football think differently. For one thing, there are numerous variables that cannot be accounted for, with injury being a biggie. For another, preseason rankings, while an essential reference point for any serious fantasy owner, are too heavily influenced by past performance, especially in the case of top-ranked players.
Looking forward to the 2011 season, at least four observations are top of mind as far as the mispricing factor:
1) Safe choice? No such thing – It is a fallacy to think that by drafting the highest ranking players on a cheat sheet, even one that has been “updated,” you’re playing it “safe.” It just isn’t true. This is a good thing, if you ask me. If it were that easy, it wouldn’t be near as much fun. Personally, I love the challenge of studying the new season and trying to spot the next wave of rising players.
• Roughly 50 percent of the time, the preseason top-10 players at RB, WR, and QB will not justify their ranking, come season’s end, whether due to injury or underachievement.
• In fact, if you extend the analysis to the next tier of 10 players for RBs and WRs – the top 20 RBs and WRs – it is not much better.
• Remember, in 2010, only 22 of the top 40 RB and WRs – 55 percent – finished there.
• In 2009, only 14 of the 40 players – 35 percent – ranked in the top 20 at RB and WR met expectations.
• In 2008, it was 22 of the top 40 players, or 55 percent.
• And in 2007, the figure was exactly 50 percent.
So, here again, we’re hovering around a 50 percent fulfillment rate, even for the top 20 at RB and WR.
The QB position has played out somewhat differently the last four years.
If you look at the preseason-versus-actual for the top-10 QBs for 2007, and 2008, they were 60 percent accurate for 2007 and 40 percent on the mark for 2008. Once again, we’re around 50 percent. In 2009, predictions at QB held up pretty well; only three of the top 10 (Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Cassel) did not match expectations. Then last year, in 2010, we were back at 60 percent success (Tony Romo(notes), Brett Favre, Joe Flacco(notes) and Jay Cutler(notes) all disappointed).
If you expand it to include the top-20 ranked QBs, the numbers are stronger yet. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, the number of top 20-ranked QBs who finished in the top 20 improved to 65 percent, 75 percent, and 75 percent, respectively. However, what is important is that in all four years, the second tier of QBs (the ones ranked 11 through 20) produced 11 top-10 QBs. In 2007, three QBs ranked 11-20 at the position were actually top-10 QBs (Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre); four made the leap from Tier 2 to Tier 1 in 2008 (Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, and David Garrard(notes)); two in 2009 (Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger); and two in 2010 (Matt Ryan and Eli Manning(notes)).
The bottom line is that a player’s preseason ranking is an important criterion, but it’s going to be realized only about half the time. It’s an important data point and indicator. But if you lean too heavily on preseason rankings and cheat sheets, you run the risk of missing out on the numerous other factors that go into designing a winning roster on fantasy draft day.
2) Mining the Second Tier – While it’s true that the accuracy of the predictions don’t get a lot better if you include the players ranked 11-20 at QB, RB, and WR, it’s also true that the second tier contains numerous mispricing winners. We can see this in the tables above, the ones listing the mispricing all stars, for each of the last four years.
In 2010, six players ranked in the second tier finished in the top 10 at their positions, including: QBs Eli Manning, Matt Ryan; RBs Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy; WRs Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe.
In 2009, nine players ranked in the second tier finished in the top 10 at their positions, including QBs Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger; RBs Chris Johnson, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones; WRs Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson.
In 2008, 11 players in the second tier performed as tier ones: including QBs Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers; RBs Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew; WRs Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin(notes), Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings.
In 2007, eight players in the second tier of punched through to the top 10, including QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre; RBs Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James(notes), Clinton Portis; WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress.
You can rest assured that in 2011 a number of players ranked in the preseason in the 11-25 range at their positions will put up top-10 stats when it matters most. More specifically, at RB, WR, and QB, the crop of 30 players ranked 11 through 25 are a prime hunting ground for the kind of mispriced players that grease a fantasy title.
3) Matchmaking: Scheme-Team-Player – Every year a few top fantasy performers do explode from the basement of the preseason rankings or come out of proverbial left field. But if you look closely, these players have a few things in common. There is something of a pattern to their ascension. And there is an opportunity for astute fantasy owners to see which players might follow a similar trajectory in 2011.
In 2010, players like RBs Arian Foster (ranked 23rd, finished 1st), Jamaal Charles (ranked 15th, finished 3rd), LeSean McCoy (ranked 17th, finished 7th), Ahmad Bradshaw (ranked 33rd, finished 14th); and WRs Mike Wallace (ranked 26th, finished 6th), Hakeem Nicks (ranked 24th, finished 7th) all played in top-ranked offenses well-suited to their skills.
Ditto for 2009 for players like RBs Ray Rice (ranked 25th, finished 4th), Thomas Jones(ranked 24th, finished 5th) and WRs Miles Austin(ranked 65+, finished 3rd), DeSean Jackson(ranked 19th, finished 4th), Sidney Rice(ranked 61st, finished 8th), Vincent Jackson (ranked 16th, finished 9th).
The same can be said for 2008, when breakout players like RB Chris Johnson (ranked 44th, finished 11th) and WRs Vincent Jackson (ranked 44th, finished 12th), Lance Moore (ranked 118th, finished 14th), Kevin Walter(notes) (ranked 66th, finished 18th), Eddie Royal(notes) (ranked 58th, finished 20th) all played in high quality offenses. The four receivers listed above were embedded in passing offenses that were ranked 7th, 1st, 4th and 3rd, respectively. In Johnson’s case, the Tennessee Titans had the 7th-ranked rushing attack in the NFL in 2008. So these players didn’t really come “out of nowhere.” They were talented players who got an opportunity on talented teams or in offensive systems that were well tuned to their abilities.
We can see a similar pattern in 2007 when RBs Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, and Willis McGahee shot into the top 10 from preseason rankings in the teens and low 20s. All three played for teams (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, and Baltimore Ravens) with offensive systems that thrived on the running game. In the case of McGahee and Peterson, they were new to their teams. So not only were their talents suited to their new opportunities, but their overall situations also matched motivation with excellent opportunity, individual talent, and team quality.
There were three WRs who stole spots in the top 10 in 2007 but who were ranked as WR2s going into the season. In the case of two of them – T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Marques Colston – they joined teams with top-drawer QBs. With the third WR who in 2007 advanced into the top 10 from a preseason WR2 ranking – Plaxico Burress – it was the case of an excellent team giving a talented player a greater role.
So, when looking to generate my list of potential mispricings, I look hard at:
• New players or young, yet unproven players in offensive schemes that play to their strengths
• New players joining quality offenses
• Veteran players getting enhanced roles in quality offenses
• New players on teams with premier QBs
4) A risk versus a gamble – Maybe the toughest part about the mispricing aspect of approaching a fantasy draft is mental. It is believing in the strength of your convictions and being able to pull the trigger on potentially mispriced gems when “safer” choices are still on the board. It’s the willingness to make investments and take positions that, in the moment, seem like gambles.
But there is a world of difference between a risk and a gamble.
A gamble is something that rests on chance and chance alone, like a lottery; no amount of skill, preparation, or analysis can affect the outcome. A risk, however, is a strategy that can be informed by knowledge, experience, analysis, planning, and instinct.
There is a telling moment in entrepreneur extraordinaire Richard Branson’s book, “Screw It, Let’s Do It” that makes this point. In Branson’s words:
“In 2004 I (Richard Branson) made a TV series, The Rebel Billionaire. The final episode had a twist at the end. I offered a prize winner, Shawn Nelson(notes), a cheque for one million dollars – but there was a catch. He could take the cheque or toss a coin for an even bigger mystery prize. If he lost the toss, he would lose it all. I held out the cheque. He took it and saw the long line of zeros. Then I took it back and put it in my hip pocket. I held out a silver coin. ‘Which one will it be?’ I said. ‘The coin or the cheque?’”
“Shawn looked shaken. It was a huge gamble. All or nothing. He asked me, ‘What would you do, Richard?’”
“‘It’s up to you’, I said. I could have told him, ‘I take risks, but they are calculated risks. I weigh up the odds in everything I do. Instead I said nothing. He had to make up his own mind.”
“Shawn walked back and forth, trying to decide. It was tempting to gamble. It would make him look cool. Also, the unknown prize might be amazing. At last, he said he couldn’t risk losing that much money on the toss of a coin … “
” … ‘I’ll take the cheque’, he said.”
“I was pleased. ‘If you had gone for the coin toss, I would have lost all respect for you,’ I said.”
“He made the right choice and didn’t gamble on something that he couldn’t control. He got the million dollars and the mystery prize.”
So, targeting mispriced players on draft day or, better yet, building a draft plan around securing as many mispriced players as possible and possessing the boldness to take those players when other tried and true choices are still there does represent a risk. But if you do your homework, it is in no way a gamble.
The fact is that each and every year fantasy football fortunes rest on precisely this group of players.
POTENTIALLY MISPRICED GEMS FOR 2011
When I am putting together my draft plan for each of my leagues in the next few weeks, I will be zeroing in on players from the list below.
More important, I will devise a round-by-round draft plan that, for each of my leagues, will call for me to snag these players, perhaps even a round earlier than they might otherwise go.
I am willing to take the calculated risk (and weather the doubters, the haters, “experts”, etc.) on these players.
While a number of the players listed below have been tabbed as “sleepers” or “values” for 2011, I will go so far as to formulate draft plans that will result in fantasy rosters populated exclusively with these players. In other words, I won’t be taking a passive response and hoping one or more of these mispriced players fall into my lap. I am looking to marshal as many of them as I can. In almost every case, I view these players as not yet having put up their best year; it’s still ahead of them.
At RB, I will be intentional in creating a customized draft plan for each of my leagues that sees me acquire four to six of the following players: Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount, Ryan Mathews(notes), Mark Ingram(notes), Daniel Thomas(notes), Shonn Greene, Jahvid Best(notes), C.J. Spiller(notes), Mikel Leshoure(notes), Ryan Williams(notes), James Starks(notes), Roy Helu(notes), and Darren Sproles(notes).
At WR, I will be aggressively looking to tab two to three of these mispriced players: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes(notes), Dez Bryant(notes), Pierre Garcon(notes), Johnny Knox(notes), Kenny Britt, Mario Manningham, Mike Thomas(notes), Jacoby Ford(notes), and Lance Moore.
I usually am one of those who holds off on plucking a QB, and this year there is maybe less cause than ever to spend a high pick on a Michael Vick or a Drew Brees(notes). The QB position was fairly predictable in 2010. Remember, four of the top 10 ranked QBs (Romo, Favre, Flacco, Cutler) disappointed. However, if you look at the preseason top-10 ranked QBs for 2007, 2008, and 2009, 16 out of 30 – or 53 percent -actually made it into the top 10. This is true even though, when you look at the lists in hindsight, they seem perfectly legit.
This year, the QB position has a number of players who I believe are mispriced. In my draft plans for 2011, if I am looking to select a mispriced QB in Rounds 4-5, I will be looking at Tony Romo. If my plan calls for targeting a mispriced QB in Rounds 6-7, I will draw a bull’s-eye around Matt Schaub(notes). If my draft plan dictates waiting even a bit longer to reel in a mispriced QB – and my draft plans always factor in the individual tendencies and characteristics of the leagues I play in – my bogeys at QB will be Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, or Eli Manning. Deeper yet, I believe strongly that Matthew Stafford(notes), Jay Cutler, and Matt Cassel will best the consensus of predictions about their performance in 2011.
POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE MISPRICINGS FOR 2011
Don’t forget that roughly half of so-called “safer” choices will underachieve, whether it’s due to injury or some other factor. So, as far as the other category of mispricings (those who are rated higher by the market than what they might actually deliver), personally, I will be taking extreme caution with the players listed below in 2011. It doesn’t mean they won’t produce or have value relative to other players. But it does mean I believe they will struggle to fulfill their preseason expectations, and therefore, will not justify their current average draft position (ADP).
RBs: Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Ryan Torain, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner, Pierre Thomas(notes), and Thomas Jones.
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Chad Ochocinco(notes), Michael Crabtree(notes), Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith (NYG), Michael Williams (SEA), and Earl Bennett(notes).
The negative mispricings at QB seem less glaring, but personally I will avoid Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez(notes).
For illustration purposes, here is what one draft that relied heavily on a mispricing strategy – 10th pick, highly competitive 14-team league, starts 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex, fairly traditional scoring system looked like in 2010:
Round 1 – Ryan Mathews
Round 2 – Greg Jennings
Round 3 – Arian Foster
Round 4 – Jermichael Finley(notes)
Round 5 – Ahmad Bradshaw
Round 6 – Johnny Knox
Round 7 – Michael Bush
Round 8 – Eli Manning
Round 9 – Matthew Stafford
Round 10 – Mike Williams (TB)
DRAFT CRITERION NO. 2: SECURING SEPARATION
A second major criterion to use in crafting a draft plan is to leave your fantasy draft with a team that has a clear competitive advantage at one key position over the other teams in your league.
This comes down to sizing up all aspects of your draft – league tendencies, your draft position, your scoring system, etc. – and then strategizing how to emerge from the draft with distinct leverage at one key position, whether it’s RB, WR, or QB.
There’s no question it is most effective when you can win the positional advantage at RB, but your draft position may preclude that.
While there are never guarantees, at some point in almost every fantasy season, an edge in a key position will likely become an ace-in-the-hole for a highly strategic trade. This can be pivotal because, in addition to waiver wire management and week-to-week start/sit approaches, a single timely trade involving a player in a position where you have deliberately managed to get separation from your league’s “pack” can pave the way to a fantasy title.
Admittedly, this separation tactic can be tough to execute in the heat of the moment. It can feel like you’re putting yourself in a hole at a key position. But if it’s combined with solid pre-draft planning and preparation and an aggressive posture toward targeting and acquiring positively mispriced players, it can help you be one step ahead of the other teams in your league. And when, inevitably, their need arises for a player at a key position, you can have a ton of leverage to improve your own team.
To see what this can look like, here is a relatively successful application of the separation strategy, combined with a bias toward targeting mispriced gems, for one league in 2010 – 9th pick, highly competitive 12-team league, starts 2 RBs, 2 WR/TEs, 1 Flex, combo performance-TD based scoring:
Round 1 – Ryan Mathews
Round 2 – Jahvid Best
Round 3 – Jamaal Charles
Round 4 – Jermichael Finley
Round 5 – Ahmad Bradshaw
Round 6 – Jonathan Stewart(notes)
Round 7 – Ricky Williams
Round 8 – Brett Favre
Round 9 – Eli Manning
That start – loading up on RBs – enabled two trades in Week 2 that paved the way to a title: Ahmad Bradshaw and Derek Anderson for Peyton Hillis and Vernon Davis(notes); and Brett Favre for Michael Vick.
DRAFT CRITERION NO. 3: LEVERAGING “UNFAIR ADVANTAGE”
There’s a school of thought in business that the companies that will do best in the lean, cut-throat times we’re living in are the ones that relentlessly ask themselves, what is the one thing we do better than anyone else, what is our unfair advantage? Once they dial in the answer, they then remove any and all obstacles to doing what they do best and focus on the one thing that makes them preeminent.
This same kind of thinking can be applied to fantasy. It can be highly beneficial during a draft to ask a simple question during every pick of every round: Which player currently on the board is a game-changer, a paradigm-shifter, a high-impact player an NFL defense must account for at all times? In my experience, collecting game-changers on fantasy draft day – combined with an overall approach of targeting mispricings and securing positional separation – can result in a really competitive team, a team that’s fun to root for, and one especially well-suited to take advantage of trades and player acquisitions to bridge any gaps.
Combining all three of these draft criteria – acquiring mispricings, securing positional separation, and steering toward players with talents that give them an unfair advantage even over their peers (and cause insomnia for defensive coordinators), here is what one 2010 draft looked like – 6th pick, competitive 10-team league, 2 RBs, 2 WR/TEs, 1 Flex, standard scoring:
Round 1 – Michael Turner
Round 2 – Ryan Mathews
Round 3 – Miles Austin
Round 4 – Antonio Gates(notes)
Round 5 – Jermichael Finley
Round 6 – Joe Flacco
Round 7 – Reggie Bush(notes)
Round 8 – Ahmad Bradshaw
Round 9 – Johnny Knox
Round 10 – Mike Williams (TB)
POTENTIAL DRAFTS FOR 2011
Okay, a lot of factors contribute to a fantasy title, and it’s seemingly getting more and more competitive each year. But there are certain thoughts I refuse to have when I’m wrapping up my drafts: In hindsight, I wish I would have (FILL IN THE BLANK), or I’m not exactly thrilled with (FILL IN THE BLANK), or I’ll need some breaks, or I think I’ll be able to compete. I want to win, I want to have fun, and I have found that, in order to do both, I have to prepare more thoroughly than my league-mates and be willing to take more risks – not gambles, but legitimate, calculated risks.
With that thought in mind, and with the benefit of the three main draft criteria outlined in this article, here are three draft scenarios that I would consider to be strong drafts that would put a 2011 fantasy owner in a position to excel in a 12-team league with a standard 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 1 FLEX roster requirement:
Picking near the top of Round 1:

1st Pick: Jamaal Charles
2nd Pick: Larry Fitzgerald
3rd Pick: Ahmad Bradshaw
4th Pick: Santonio Holmes
5th Pick: Tony Romo
6th Pick: Daniel Thomas
7th Pick: Jimmy Graham(notes)
8th Pick: Mario Manningham
9th Pick: James Starks
10th Pick: Mike Thomas
Picking near the middle of Round 1:
1st Pick: Ray Rice
2nd Pick: Greg Jennings
3rd Pick: LeGarrette Blount
4th Pick: Dez Bryant
5th Pick: Vernon Davis
6th Pick: Pierre Garcon
7th Pick: Joseph Addai
8th Pick: Josh Freeman
9th Pick: Matthew Stafford
10th Pick: Roy Helu
Picking near the bottom of Round 1:
1st Pick: Calvin Johnson
2nd Pick: Aaron Rodgers
3rd Pick: Antonio Gates
4th Pick: Dez Bryant
5th Pick: Ryan Grant
6th Pick: Mark Ingram
7th Pick: Beanie Wells
8th Pick: James Starks
9th Pick: Deion Branch
10th Pick: Ryan Williams

 

[HacheMan]

Saints RBs: Can we rely on Mark Ingram?

By Eric Karabell

When 2009 Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram was drafted by the New Orleans Saints this spring, it made sense to view him as the long-lost star running back that coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees have been yearning for. I can understand that point of view. But I also understand the statistics don't really support it. Even if the Saints had a stud running back -- and folks, this is a rookie, not Adrian Peterson -- it's no given they would use him the way fantasy owners covet.

The facts don't lie, and those facts say that no Saints running back has rushed for as many as 800 yards in a season since 2006, when franchise icon Deuce McAllister rushed for 1,057 yards. Four seasons have passed since then, and 800 yards really isn't a lot. Sure, perhaps Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mike Bell, Aaron Stecker, Chris Ivory and others weren't worthy of a ton of carries, and I wouldn't argue that point, but Thomas and Darren Sproles -- who essentially assumes the role of Miami Dolphins acquisition Bush -- remain on the Saints, as well as Ivory, last season's top rusher. I really doubt Payton will simply ignore them. It's crowded, folks, and I think that's just fine for Payton, because he has divvied up the running back load for years as a philosophy, not because he lacked a stud.

Thomas hasn't been the most durable running back since arriving in 2007. The most carries he has accumulated in a season are 147. Prior to an injury-interrupted 2010 season, he had averaged 5.1 yards per rush, an impressive number that gives credence to him being used often. He's productive. I don't see how things have changed all that much for 2011. Thomas is presumably healthy after an ankle injury derailed him, and while I doubt he gets more overall touches than Ingram, don't be surprised if it's an even split. Then there's Sproles, a diminutive master pass-catcher, and Ivory, the biggest of the team's potential feature backs and someone who averaged 5.2 yards per rush in 2010.


We've certainly seen how NFL teams love to use timeshare systems at running back, and in New Orleans, Payton has four legit options vying for playing time. I like Ingram. If the right team had drafted him, perhaps we could have seen him really shine as the main guy. But this isn't the right team. Ingram landed in a committee, and there's no indication that will change. Over the past four seasons, no Saints running back has been given as many as 175 carries in a season, and for perspective, 114 running backs have topped that figure in that span (thanks to ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr for that statistic). I don't think anything changes this season, which is why expecting Ingram -- or Thomas, for that matter -- to do so is unrealistic.
In fairness, it's worth mentioning that I rarely rely on fantasy football rookies in the first place, but there's ample reason for that: Consider that over the past two seasons, just one rookie running back has reached 1,000 yards, and that was Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprise LeGarrette Blount (1,007 yards in 2010). Blount wasn't a first-round pick, or even a third-rounder … he went undrafted by NFL teams. Last season Ivory was second among rookie runners with 716 rushing yards. Hey, it's not easy to be a productive NFL skill-position player as a rookie; the trio of 2008 rookies that ran wild (Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson) was likely aberrant. Ingram is currently being selected 26th among running backs in ESPN average live drafts, a seventh-rounder overall, and I consider that a reasonable spot to pick him. In our Wednesday mock draft, Ingram was taken, appropriately, in the seventh round. Thomas is going three rounds later, the 33rd running back. That seems just as reasonable, as he clearly lacks the upside the youngster does. Sproles is a 14th-rounder, and Ivory is going undrafted. I don't think Sproles needs to be selected. If Bush didn't get enough carries, certainly Sproles isn't likely to. Kudos to fantasy owners for not only avoiding the temptation of overrating the first running back chosen in the NFL draft, but keeping expectations for all Saints running backs in check.

 

[HacheMan]

Edwards not a fantasy starter with 49ers

Christopher Harris

When free agency began, Braylon Edwards no doubt had money wheels spinning around where his eyeballs are supposed to be. But it just didn't work out for him. While Sidney Rice got huge dollars and even Steve Breaston made $9 million guaranteed, Edwards got just a base salary of $1 million (and could make $3.5 million if he reaches some lofty incentives) from the 49ers on a one-year contract. His career-long problem with mental consistency and his off-field woes clearly caught up with him. The 28-year-old wideout will try to make bigger money after the 2011 season.

It's actually rather tough to know what to make of this transaction. My instinct is to be very concerned about Michael Crabtree's foot. Crabtree reportedly has an injury timetable that could take him all the way into the regular season, and the Sacramento Bee speculated (and at this point it is pure speculation) that the regular-season PUP list could be a possibility. That would mean Crabtree would miss at least six games that count. The fact the Niners went out and got a clear NFL starter can be taken as a sign of deep worry for Crabtree, and I think fantasy owners are justified in thinking about letting someone else draft him this summer.


On the other hand, the 49ers obviously didn't make a massive financial commitment to the mercurial Edwards. This could absolutely be an insurance move just in case Crabtree can't go early in the year. Edwards may be flighty on the field, but he's a legit concern for opposing defenses, and even if he winds up bumping down the food chain to No. 2 or No. 3 (behind Josh Morgan?), maybe he's worth having around on the cheap. If this winds up being the case, the Crabtree panic will have been for naught, and he'll come at an attractive discount in fantasy drafts.


<INLINE1>Which scenario is the truth? I tend to lean toward the former. Perhaps that's because I was already highly suspicious of drafting Crabtree anyway; I've seen what it looks like when Alex Smith is supposed to be targeting Crabtree a bunch. It's inconsistent and underwhelming. And now there's a chance that Crabtree's foot will keep him out of training camp entirely? Yuck. I think you're far better off just staying away from all elements of the 49ers' passing game not named Vernon Davis. That goes for Edwards, too, regardless of Crabtree's status. Between Braylon's inconsistency and Smith's noodle arm, I'm not envisioning many deep strikes down the sidelines. Oh, Edwards is draftable as a Niner, and I'll admit he'll get more draftable if Crabtree, say, winds up on the PUP list. But is he a fantasy starter even then? I have a hard time seeing it.

 

[HacheMan]

How risky is Jones-Drew?
There are two sides to injuries on fantasy draft day. If your opponents are scared off for unfounded reasons, it's a chance to get a player on the cheap. If we believe an injury entails taking on more risk than there is worth, it's a red flag.

To help us with making these determinations, we chatted with Brian Eckenrode, PT, DPT, MS, OCS and sports rehabilitation specialist for GSPP Penn Therapy and Fitness at the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia. For more info on GSPP and the Penn Sports Medicine Center, head to Phillyrehab.com.

Editor's Note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns, team reports, bold predictions, sleepers, busts and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

MAURICE JONES-DREW
Injury: Underwent surgery to repair a torn right meniscus in January. Didn't start running until June.
Current status: Easing his way into camp, limited reps.
Current average draft position: 9.2

Jones-Drew described his injury as a bone-on-bone condition last season. Is that a red flag to you?
You never like to hear that. When doctors say it to their patients, it just means there is some cartilage degeneration. The cartilage was either worn away in a section or he has torn some cartilage. In this case they're talking about the meniscus.

We don't know the degree of bone-on-bone, but certainly if he had surgery to fix the meniscus there was something going on in there. He's going to probably be more susceptible to a wear and tear type thing.

Can simple running make it worse or does he need to take a hit?
Certainly a bad trauma could make this worse, but also if he pivots and cuts the wrong way that also could make it a little bit worse. Long-term effects are going to be a little more severe. But short-term, if he progresses slowly he should be fine to take some lower-body hits.

ROTOWORLD OPINION: This Jaguars' offense projects to be bad. Without any threatening receivers or tight ends, defenses can focus solely on Jones-Drew. Dr. Eckenrode pointed out that although he thinks Jones-Drew can be effective despite the injury, his knee will need to be "preserved." That could very well lead to more snaps for talented backup Rashad Jennings. At an ADP of 9.2, it's just not worth the risk.


MARQUES COLSTON
Injury: Underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee shortly after the season. It is his fifth known surgery on his knees in the last five years.
Current status: Sat out three straight days of practice last week to rest knee.
Current average draft position: 46.6

Why do athletes get microfracture surgery?
They usually do it because a guy has a cartilage defect, where there is almost like a pothole in the bone. In the microfracture procedure they kind of probe, push into the bone and try to stimulate blood to help fill in cartilage.

How serious is it?
The problem is that it takes such a long time to recover, it takes a long time for your body to regenerate. Patients often need to be protected for a long time from weight-bearing, maybe even a couple months or more. And when they have this procedure, the cartilage that regenerates is different than what your body already has so it's not as strong.

Is Colston certain to regain all his athletic abilities like agility and leaping?
There's a little bit more risk partly because what your body makes in replace of what it had isn't as strong. He'll need to work his way in. He's going to have a decent amount of his ability it's more a matter of how much his knee joint can handle.

ROTOWORLD OPINION: The fact that Colston is reportedly lighting up Saints camp when he's out there gives some hope. But with Jimmy Graham set to steal red zone targets, Robert Meachem seemingly ready for a breakout and the Saints ready to run the ball more with Mark Ingram, Colston's ceiling isn't that high. Let someone else bet that he'll still be elite.

Editor's Note: See where we have Colston ranked in the 2011 Draft Guide!


ANTONIO GATES
Injury: Plantar fasciitis
Status: Has passed his physical, but admitted that he is still feeling pain in his feet.
Current average draft position: 34.1

What exactly is plantar fasciitis and how do you get it?
The plantar fascia is a tissue that goes from your heel up toward your toes. It helps maintain a little bit of the arch. Some people that have really flat feet can stretch it out and people with really high-arched feet, the plantar fascia can get under a lot of stress just from walking on it. People that are heavier tend to have more problems with this, it is an overuse type thing.

Does it surprise you he's still feeling it after a full offseason of rest?
No. This can be pretty nagging. In some bad cases, we've seen the doctor put them in a boot and tell them not to put any weight on that foot for 4-6 weeks. Because every time he steps he may be irritating it. This can be something can become chronic. If he's still complaining about it, it's certainly at the chronic stage. It may be a matter of how much he can play through it.

Is it possible that Gates will just wake up one day and feel great again?
A gradual pace would be more expected. Maybe he will feel a little better, then a little better, and then hey, it's non-existent. There are lots of different things out there you can do to make it better -- orthotics, splints etc.

ROTOWORLD OPINION
As one of the tougher guys in the league, Gates is going to play through this injury. Even if he needs a numbing injection, he will still be the top tight end anytime he takes the field. If you take Gates, be sure to protect yourself with a solid TE2. If you don't want the risk, we certainly don't blame you as the tight end position is deeper than ever this year.

 

[HacheMan]

Which Chris Johnson will show up?

How high should you draft Chris Johnson?

When the NFL owners and players shook hands on a new collective bargaining agreement to end the long lockout, fantasy owners were able to breathe a sigh of relief. At last, arguments over money were going to take a backseat to the game itself. Unfortunately, just because there is now labor peace doesn't mean there aren't still a few players out there unhappy with their current contract situations. With the Tennessee Titans, the unhappy party is none other than Chris Johnson.
The star running back is holding out for a new deal, seeking a huge raise over the $800,000 he is due to make this season. Certainly, if we're still waiting for this stalemate to come to some sort of a conclusion as Week 1's kickoff approaches, it will be safe to say a full slate of games is likely out of the question for Johnson in 2011. But let's assume for the sake of argument that eventually (and sooner, rather than later) cooler heads do prevail and that Johnson and general manager Mike Reinfeldt reach some sort of meeting of the minds where both sides agree on exactly how much money CJ2K is worth.
Whatever answer they settle on, the question for fantasy owners thinking about drafting Johnson will still remain: How high of a draft pick is he worth?
Heading into the 2009 season, coming off a strong debut, Johnson was clearly expected to give fantasy owners first-round value, as evidenced by an average draft position (ADP) of 8.0. Those who were savvy enough to bite on the Titans' back were handsomely rewarded -- and then some -- as he rushed for 2,006 yards and 14 touchdowns, plus an additional 50 catches for another 503 yards and a pair of scores. Not only was he the highest scoring player at any position in fantasy, he also blew Adrian Peterson out of the water, scoring 64 points more than the second-best running back.

Naturally, a performance that good was going to make Chris Johnson a hot commodity on draft day in 2010, and his ADP of 1.4 was not a shock. What was stunning, though, was the back's incredible drop-off in production: only 1,364 yards and 11 scores on the ground, and in the air only one touchdown with barely half as many receiving yards (245) on just six fewer catches than the year before.
The final numbers were certainly disappointing, given the expectations. With only 216 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) for the season, we're talking a drop of 7.1 points per game from the year before. Even so, you can't say that Johnson was a complete bust. After all, he did rank fifth overall among running backs. However, it does raise the question as to which Chris Johnson we're more likely to see in 2011: the return of vintage CJ2K or the far less shiny CJ1.3K?
Johnson's worst performances last season certainly can be explained away. He had only 34 yards versus Pittsburgh, the league's best rushing defense, and managed only slightly better -- 59 yards -- against the third-best run-stoppers, the San Diego Chargers. Then there was the embarrassing five yards on seven carries against the Houston Texans.
But what do you expect when third-stringer Rusty Smith is called into action and throws three picks? The Texans' defense was certainly quite willing to focus all of their energies on Johnson, being more than happy to let the inexperienced quarterback beat them if he could. Clearly, he could not.
This year, the revolving door at quarterback between Vince Young and Kerry Collins has been replaced by Matt Hasselbeck, who will proudly sport Titans blue. Certainly, if the brittle veteran gets injured again (he's been able to start 16 games only once over the past five seasons), Johnson will be back in that same boat of having to carry most of the offensive load all by himself, as rookie Jake Locker would be the only non-Rusty Smith option at the helm.
However, most star running backs would face the same hurdles if their star signal-caller were to miss significant time. At least having a 3,000-yard passer under center gives him a fighting chance.
Jeff Fisher may be gone, but the team's new head coach is not likely to make too many changes to the ground game. Mike Munchak has been Tennessee's offensive line coach for 14 years and he has produced a 1,000-yard running back in 11 of those 14 seasons. Adding free-agent tight end Daniel Graham gives the team an extra blocker to keep Hasselbeck from getting abused and open up more holes for Johnson.
While Johnson's holdout might be frustrating to fans, in the end, it might actually end up helping his stats. Not only is he not risking injury while sitting out, but in his absence, Javon Ringer is getting plenty of reps with the first-team offense. The more comfortable the team is in using Ringer, the more likely it will be that they'll allow him to get him action during the regular season, thus keeping Johnson a little bit fresher over the last month of the schedule, just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Finally, while it is always dangerous to judge a team's strength of schedule based on last season's results, it is interesting to note that the Titans' schedule seems to be tailor-made for Johnson's return to the top of the fantasy leaderboard.
Tennessee has games with Buffalo, Denver, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and its usual two with the Indianapolis Colts. That's six matchups facing teams who ranked in the bottom eight in terms of rushing yards allowed in 2010. Throw in Carolina, Cincinnati and the pair with Jacksonville, and you've got 10 games against the bottom 14.
Not only that, but Johnson's two projected "tough" games -- versus perennial defensive stalwarts Baltimore and Pittsburgh -- will both be over and done with by the time the Titans take their bye in Week 6.
Whether or not Chris Johnson is worth the millions of dollars of guaranteed money is a question only Titans management can answer. But whether or not he's worth taking with one of the top three picks in this year's fantasy drafts? That one, I will happily field for you. Even if he ends up falling just a bit short of a second 2,000-yard season in three years, the answer is still a resounding yes.

 

[HacheMan]

Which Chris Johnson will show up?

By AJ Mass
ESPN.com

How high should you draft Chris Johnson?

When the NFL owners and players shook hands on a new collective bargaining agreement to end the long lockout, fantasy owners were able to breathe a sigh of relief. At last, arguments over money were going to take a backseat to the game itself. Unfortunately, just because there is now labor peace doesn't mean there aren't still a few players out there unhappy with their current contract situations. With the Tennessee Titans, the unhappy party is none other than Chris Johnson.
The star running back is holding out for a new deal, seeking a huge raise over the $800,000 he is due to make this season. Certainly, if we're still waiting for this stalemate to come to some sort of a conclusion as Week 1's kickoff approaches, it will be safe to say a full slate of games is likely out of the question for Johnson in 2011. But let's assume for the sake of argument that eventually (and sooner, rather than later) cooler heads do prevail and that Johnson and general manager Mike Reinfeldt reach some sort of meeting of the minds where both sides agree on exactly how much money CJ2K is worth.
Whatever answer they settle on, the question for fantasy owners thinking about drafting Johnson will still remain: How high of a draft pick is he worth?
Heading into the 2009 season, coming off a strong debut, Johnson was clearly expected to give fantasy owners first-round value, as evidenced by an average draft position (ADP) of 8.0. Those who were savvy enough to bite on the Titans' back were handsomely rewarded -- and then some -- as he rushed for 2,006 yards and 14 touchdowns, plus an additional 50 catches for another 503 yards and a pair of scores. Not only was he the highest scoring player at any position in fantasy, he also blew Adrian Peterson out of the water, scoring 64 points more than the second-best running back.

Naturally, a performance that good was going to make Chris Johnson a hot commodity on draft day in 2010, and his ADP of 1.4 was not a shock. What was stunning, though, was the back's incredible drop-off in production: only 1,364 yards and 11 scores on the ground, and in the air only one touchdown with barely half as many receiving yards (245) on just six fewer catches than the year before.
The final numbers were certainly disappointing, given the expectations. With only 216 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) for the season, we're talking a drop of 7.1 points per game from the year before. Even so, you can't say that Johnson was a complete bust. After all, he did rank fifth overall among running backs. However, it does raise the question as to which Chris Johnson we're more likely to see in 2011: the return of vintage CJ2K or the far less shiny CJ1.3K?
Johnson's worst performances last season certainly can be explained away. He had only 34 yards versus Pittsburgh, the league's best rushing defense, and managed only slightly better -- 59 yards -- against the third-best run-stoppers, the San Diego Chargers. Then there was the embarrassing five yards on seven carries against the Houston Texans.
But what do you expect when third-stringer Rusty Smith is called into action and throws three picks? The Texans' defense was certainly quite willing to focus all of their energies on Johnson, being more than happy to let the inexperienced quarterback beat them if he could. Clearly, he could not.
This year, the revolving door at quarterback between Vince Young and Kerry Collins has been replaced by Matt Hasselbeck, who will proudly sport Titans blue. Certainly, if the brittle veteran gets injured again (he's been able to start 16 games only once over the past five seasons), Johnson will be back in that same boat of having to carry most of the offensive load all by himself, as rookie Jake Locker would be the only non-Rusty Smith option at the helm.
However, most star running backs would face the same hurdles if their star signal-caller were to miss significant time. At least having a 3,000-yard passer under center gives him a fighting chance.
Jeff Fisher may be gone, but the team's new head coach is not likely to make too many changes to the ground game. Mike Munchak has been Tennessee's offensive line coach for 14 years and he has produced a 1,000-yard running back in 11 of those 14 seasons. Adding free-agent tight end Daniel Graham gives the team an extra blocker to keep Hasselbeck from getting abused and open up more holes for Johnson.
While Johnson's holdout might be frustrating to fans, in the end, it might actually end up helping his stats. Not only is he not risking injury while sitting out, but in his absence, Javon Ringer is getting plenty of reps with the first-team offense. The more comfortable the team is in using Ringer, the more likely it will be that they'll allow him to get him action during the regular season, thus keeping Johnson a little bit fresher over the last month of the schedule, just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Finally, while it is always dangerous to judge a team's strength of schedule based on last season's results, it is interesting to note that the Titans' schedule seems to be tailor-made for Johnson's return to the top of the fantasy leaderboard.
Tennessee has games with Buffalo, Denver, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and its usual two with the Indianapolis Colts. That's six matchups facing teams who ranked in the bottom eight in terms of rushing yards allowed in 2010. Throw in Carolina, Cincinnati and the pair with Jacksonville, and you've got 10 games against the bottom 14.
Not only that, but Johnson's two projected "tough" games -- versus perennial defensive stalwarts Baltimore and Pittsburgh -- will both be over and done with by the time the Titans take their bye in Week 6.
Whether or not Chris Johnson is worth the millions of dollars of guaranteed money is a question only Titans management can answer. But whether or not he's worth taking with one of the top three picks in this year's fantasy drafts? That one, I will happily field for you. Even if he ends up falling just a bit short of a second 2,000-yard season in three years, the answer is still a resounding yes.

 

[HacheMan]

Can you trust a Cardinals running back?

By Ken Daube
Special to ESPN.com

After years of disappointing fantasy production, is there any reason to believe that an Arizona Cardinals running back can emerge as a legitimate fantasy threat?

Calling Beanie Wells' 2010 campaign a fantasy disappointment would be akin to calling Bernie Madoff a bad investor. Sure, both analogies begin to sketch the breadth of the subject matter, but the truth is that without further description, neither portrays a complete representation of the disaster that would unfurl upon their victims. Drafted as the 14th running back on average last season, Wells posted just 51 total fantasy points for the total season. To put that into perspective, last season's top fantasy running back, Arian Foster, scored 53 points in the first two weeks of the season. With that said, let's remember there were reasons Wells was drafted so early last season.


The most prominent reason for Wells' high draft position last season was that he was a solid fantasy producer during the last eight games of the 2009 regular season, when he racked up 626 total yards and six touchdowns. Fantasy owners seemed to ignore the plethora of injuries that affected Wells' production at Ohio State and perhaps focused solely on those eight games. The prospects of projecting those numbers over a full season and then adding a mythical growth factor because Wells would be in his second year drove his draft position up to a point where he could likely only return the value of the pick that was used to select him. While that may sound good in practice, you win fantasy football championships by selecting players who overperform their draft slot, not by taking those that produce a neutral or negative value.


While projecting a sample size to a larger body of work might be just as valid a method for predicting future performance as any other, the real risk in Wells' sample size was that it required him to stay healthy enough to maintain his 4.6 yards per carry. Wells suffered a meniscus injury during training camp that would cause him to miss the first two games of the 2010 season. It affected his performance later in the season when swelling became an issue. The injury became a big risk because it both limited his playing time and his production when he was in the lineup. The final result was an almost apocalyptic drop in yards per carry to just 3.4, which, when coupled with Wells' almost complete invisibility in the Cardinals' passing attack, made him one the larger busts of the 2010 season.


Fast forward to the 2011 NFL draft, when the Cardinals shocked many insiders by using the 34th overall selection on Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams. After investing a first-round pick in Wells in the 2009 draft and having the relatively productive Tim Hightower under contract, the move to draft Williams didn't seem to make much sense. That is, until you really analyze how offenses that have been run by head coach Ken Whisenhunt have been most effective.


While the Cardinals have been a primarily two-back offense since 2008, one should realize that split of the carries between multiple backs may not be what Whisenhunt wanted, but rather him playing the hands that were dealt to him. Specifically, in 2008 it was Edgerrin James' lack of production that caused the incorporation of Tim Hightower into the offense. In 2009, rookie Wells sprained his ankle early in training camp, which kept him out of most of the preseason. And, as mentioned before, Wells was injured in 2010 in a manner that also made having one feature back impossible.


Before 2008, offenses were rather different under Whisenhunt. When you look at the three seasons that Whisenhunt served as the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator and the first season he functioned as the Cardinals' head coach, the primary running backs in his offensive schemes averaged almost 292 carries per year. To put that into perspective, only eight running backs achieved that height last season.


Which brings us back to Williams …


ESPN.com NFC West blogger Mike Sando wrote in his recent report from the Cardinals camp, "Williams looks like the better pure runner. Where Wells is more of a downhill runner with straight-line tendencies, Williams has shown he can cut effortlessly, even at high speed. One of Williams' coaches from Virginia Tech told the Cardinals he had never coached a more talented player." While Williams did show a tendency to suffer hamstring issues at Virginia Tech, with a better training regimen and more oversight, one should expect that these issues would be minimized now that he's in the NFL.

When presented with these facts, statistics and observations, you can probably come up with a couple of different scenarios for the Cardinals backfield:


1. The Cardinals continue to utilize a split backfield. In this scenario, Wells would likely be the first-down back, with Williams handling passing-down responsibilities. Both backs would serve as valuable third or fourth backs on most fantasy squads.


2. The Cardinals establish one playmaker as the primary ball handler. Under this scenario, the primary ball handler has to be Williams, as Wells' skill set does not include the prerequisite talent necessary to be an effective pass-catching back.


If you asked me to bet on how this plays out this season, I'd lean toward the Cardinals opening the season with Wells as the early-down back with Williams as the primary third-down back. However, I also expect that Williams will overtake Wells and become a feature back beginning in Week 9. With this in mind, I have no problem using an eighth- or ninth-round selection to ensure that I own Williams in almost every league.

 

[HacheMan]

Expert Draft Recap
Evan Silva represented us in NFL.com's expert league draft on Tuesday. It is a full point per reception (PPR) league and gives us a good idea about changing player values following free agency. Below are the picks with my notes.

Remember, we are updating the 2011 Draft Guide constantly to reflect all the changes going on around the league. More exclusive mocks will be coming there in the next few weeks as we swing into prime drafting season, also known as Fesitvus in August.

ROUND ONE

1.1 Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - ESPN
1.2 Arian Foster, RB, HOU - KFFL
1.3 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Sirius XM
1.4 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - Yahoo
1.5 Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Sports Illustrated
1.6 Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Rotowire
1.7 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB - Barber Boyz
1.8 Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Footballguys
1.9 LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - NFL.com
1.10 Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Fantasy Guru
1.11 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Rotoexperts
1.12 Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)

NOTES: I have seen the first four picks go in all different orders. It's a little surprising that after the Vikings suffered downgrades at wide receiver and offensive line in free agency, Peterson goes first in a full PPR format. ... The Ricky Williams signing in Baltimore is already having an effect. Now that Ray Rice is unlikely to see goal-line work, it's reasonable to take Darren McFadden ahead of him. ... Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't get how Aaron Rodgers consistently goes before Michael Vick. If you're worried about a Vick injury, just take Vince Young late and you're protected with a QB1. The 2011 Draft Guide has Vick No. 5 overall.


ROUND TWO

2.1 Jahvid Best, RB, DET - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)
2.2 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Rotoexperts
2.3 Roddy White, WR, ATL - Fantasy Guru
2.4 Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - NFL.com
2.5 Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Footballguys
2.6 Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Barber Boyz
2.7 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ - Rotowire
2.8 Frank Gore, RB, SF - Sports Illustrated
2.9 Tom Brady, QB, NEP - Yahoo
2.10 Drew Brees, QB, NO - Sirius XM
2.11 Greg Jennings, WR, GB - KFFL
2.12 Steven Jackson, RB, STL - ESPN

NOTES: We see the Mikel Leshoure (Achilles tear) fallout right away with our own Evan Silva. Now a threat for goal-line work and more snaps, Best is going to be extremely expensive in PPR formats. ... The owners in this league have clearly been following the Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) injury saga. Go here for more on why he is slipping. ... Michael Turner is in his decline phase, does not catch passes, Jason Snelling was re-signed and the Falcons are plotting a more aggressive passing attack. There are players with more upside out there. ... Tom Brady's ADP is going to rise now that Chad Ochocinco is in town. A full round-plus ahead of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning is worth noting. ... Frank Gore may have slipped due to lingering concerns over his hip. Note that Gore is fully recovered and set to be the focal point of the Niners' offense.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!


ROUND THREE

3.1 Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
3.2 Miles Austin, WR, DAL
3.3 DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
3.4 Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
3.5 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
3.6 Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE
3.7 Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
3.8 Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
3.9 Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
3.10 Philip Rivers, QB, SD
3.11 Peyton Manning, QB, IND
3.12 Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA

NOTES: Peyton Hillis will go higher in public drafts than "expert" drafts. Even though he figures to catch more passes in the Browns' new West Coast offense, a natural regression in workload and production from last year's breakout is expected. ... Shonn Greene is headed for a major bump in carries, but his lack of passing-game skills is a downer. ... As noted above, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning look like great values considering how high Tom Brady and Drew Brees went. Malcom Floyd returned to the Chargers and Austin Collie (concussions) appears fine. ... Note that Knowshon Moreno is back on the rise after the Broncos merely added Willis McGahee in free agency instead of DeAngelo Williams.


ROUND FOUR

4.1 Wes Welker, WR, NEP
4.2 LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
4.3 Mike Williams, WR, TB
4.4 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
4.5 Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
4.6 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
4.7 Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN
4.8 Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
4.9 Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
4.10 DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
4.11 Tony Romo, QB, DAL
4.12 Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI

NOTES: Notice how far LeGarrette Blount falls in this PPR format. He is reportedly improving on third downs, but is not expected to play in passing situations this season. ... Mike Williams and Dwayne Bowe are both monster talents that posted unsustainable catch-to-TD rates. Some owners will overpay. ... Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt are two of the biggest upside guys that are on everyone's radar. Be prepared to pay high prices for them, even against non-expert opponents. ... Antonio Gates would be a steal here if there weren't lingering concerns about his plantar fasciitis. He comes with risk this high now, especially when the tight end position is so deep. ... Wes Welker is obviously a PPR monster and gets a sizable downgrade in standard formats. The 2011 Draft Guide has him as the No. 10 wideout in PPR.


ROUND FIVE

5.1 Dallas Clark, TE, IND
5.2 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
5.3 Marques Colston, WR, NO
5.4 Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
5.5 Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
5.6 Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
5.7 Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA
5.8 Jason Witten, TE, DAL
5.9 Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
5.10 Vernon Davis, TE, SF
5.11 Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
5.12 Felix Jones, RB, DAL

NOTES: Here comes the tight end run. The first tier of five is really tight, so you will have to get in on this run right away or move on. ... Marques Colston (knee) had missed five straight practices as of Tuesday. Big red flags here. ... Ryan Mathews may have lost more value in the preseason than anyone so far. He was a late first-round fantasy pick last year, but is now a committee back that can't seem to sustain health. ... Even though Reggie Bush has been named the starter, Daniel Thomas goes a full two-plus rounds earlier. Don't let the coachspeak fool you here. ... Mark Ingram should be the first rookie off the board in all formats, even PPR.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

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ROUND SIX

6.1 Austin Collie, WR, IND
6.2 Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
6.3 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
6.4 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
6.5 Ryan Grant, RB, GB
6.6 Chad Ochocinco, WR, NEP
6.7 Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
6.8 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
6.9 Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ
6.10 Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
6.11 Joseph Addai, RB, IND
6.12 Matt Schaub, QB, HOU

NOTES: The more concussions a player suffers, the more severe they typically get. But a player that has had previous concussions is not more susceptible to suffering one. Of course, we are talking about Austin Collie. It's a gamble, but one that aggressive owners will be taking. ... Jonathan Stewart could have been a first-round pick if DeAngelo Williams walked in free agency. Instead, he sinks like a stone. ... Matt Ryan is on the upswing with a new toy in Julio Jones and his offensive line mostly intact. ... Beanie Wells is in the midst of a positive training camp. It's hard to find a potential feature back with more upside this late. Guys like Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch and Ryan Grant just feel like backs owners settle for. ... Check out Chad Ochocinco's new expected value in his new home. He went from Andy Dalton to Tom Brady.


ROUND SEVEN

7.1 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
7.2 Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
7.3 Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
7.4 Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
7.5 Mike Sims-Walker, WR, STL
7.6 Braylon Edwards, WR, SF
7.7 Steve Smith, WR, CAR
7.8 Mike Thomas, WR, JAC
7.9 Danny Amendola, WR, STL
7.10 Ryan Williams, RB, ARZ
7.11 Lance Moore, WR, NO
7.12 Reggie Bush, RB, MIA

NOTES: Manningham is generating tons of buzz as a breakout guy, but his ADP isn't out of control yet. There is still tons of value here. ... Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards and Steve Smith are all talented guys that sink due to quarterback concerns. ... Mike Sims-Walker has the physical build of a No. 1 receiver in a Josh McDaniels offense. Danny Amendola has the look of a solid slot receiver in that same offense. ... Owen Daniels is the sixth tight end off the board, but it's nearly two rounds after that "Big Five" tier. ... Drew Brees begged for the Saints to retain Lance Moore and they did just that. ... The Dolphins are claiming Reggie Bush will get around 15 touches per game. We shall see.


ROUND EIGHT

8.1 Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
8.2 Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
8.3 Roy Williams, WR, CHI
8.4 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NEP
8.5 Josh Freeman, QB, TB
8.6 Santana Moss, WR, WAS
8.7 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
8.8 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NEP
8.9 Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
8.10 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
8.11 Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8.12 C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

NOTES: Matthew Stafford is the No. 1 upside quarterback available after the first two tiers. If it wasn't for his fluky injuries over the last two years, he would be going four rounds earlier. ... Roy Willliams goes from an afterthought in Dallas to a No. 1 receiver in Chicago. That's right, the Bears coaches are running Williams ahead of Johnny Knox and predicting big things for his reunion with Mike Martz. It's a gamble as to whether he is up to the task. ... Michael Crabtree is missing yet another training camp and the Niners signed Braylon Edwards. His ADP should be falling rapidly. ... Note that Fred Jackson is finally the clear starter in Bills camp. Spiller has done nothing to threaten for the job and we project him for just 106 carries.


ROUND NINE

9.1 James Starks, RB, GB
9.2 Mike Tolbert, RB, SD
9.3 Ronnie Brown, RB, PHI
9.4 Packers D
9.5 Darren Sproles, RB, NO
9.6 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
9.7 Terrell Owens, WR, FA
9.8 Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
9.9 Ryan Torain, RB, WAS
9.10 Roy Helu, RB, WAS
9.11 Mike Williams, WR, SEA
9.12 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAC

NOTES: It still boggles my mind that defenses go this early. It's been established repeatedly that there just isn't that much difference between the No. 1 fantasy unit and the No. 10 unit. ... Mike Tolbert is going to at least get half the work, but he goes four rounds after Ryan Mathews. ... We discussed the plight of Johnny Knox earlier. I find it hard to believe that he will play behind Devin Hester, but that is what the Bears' coaches are saying. ... Ryan Torain is the starter in Washington and Tim Hightower may be the backup, but Roy Helu is the best talent. ... Ronnie Brown is not expected to be anything more than a mere handcuff to LeSean McCoy.


ROUND TEN

10.1 Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC
10.2 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
10.3 Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
10.4 Jacoby Ford, WR, JAC
10.5 Joe Flacco, QB, BAL
10.6 Steelers D
10.7 Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
10.8 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
10.9 Mason Crosby, K, GB
10.10 Eagles D
10.11 Kellen Winslow
10.12 Robert Meachem

NOTES: The Maurice Jones-Drew owner didn't lock up Rashard Jennings. He is a good bet to regret that later. ... Brandon Jacobs goes seven rounds after Ahmad Bradshaw. That is too much. ... It's hard to sell me that a defense could be worth more in raw value than a upside sleeper like Robert Meachem. ... Mason Crosby is the first kicker off the board. ... Evan Silva discussed Brandon Pettigrew's outlook in this column. ... Jordy Nelson would have been a mid-round value pick had James Jones walked. Now his upside is capped.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

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ROUND ELEVEN

11.1 Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
11.2 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
11.3 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ
11.4 Sam Bradford, QB, STL
11.5 Jets D
11.6 Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
11.7 Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL
11.8 Patriots D
11.9 Willis McGahee, RB, DEN
11.10 Greg Little, WR, CLE
11.11 Matt Cassel, QB, KC
11.12 Michael Bush, RB, OAK

NOTES: Plaxico Burress will be 34 on Friday and hasn’t played since 2008. His draft position here reflects that. ... The same can be said for another big name without much has left, Tony Gonzalez. We have T-Gonz as the No. 16 fantasy tight end in the 2011 Draft Guide. ... The good news is that Greg Little is headed for a No. 1 receiver role. The bad news is he plays for the Browns. ... If Darren McFadden were to go down, Michael Bush would border on RB1 status.


ROUND TWELVE

12.1 Tim Hightower, RB, WAS
12.2 DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
12.3 Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
12.4 Kevin Kolb, QB, ARZ
12.5 Shane Vereen, RB, NEP
12.6 Matt Bryant, K, ATL
12.7 Giants D
12.8 Delone Carter, RB, IND
12.9 Deion Branch, WR, NEP
12.10 Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
12.11 Eric Decker, WR, DEN
12.12 Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU

NOTES: Tim Hightower is headed for at least a third-down role in Washington. Cheap PPR flier. ... Greg Olsen is firmly on the TE2 radar in Carolina's new TE-friendly scheme. Don't forget he isn't with Mike Martz anymore. ... Jacoby Jones always appears to be on the brink of the light going on. Definitely worth a flier as Kevin Walter gets a year older.


ROUND THIRTEEN

13.1 Ravens D
13.2 Bears D
13.3 Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN
13.4 Zach Miller, TE, SEA
13.5 Jared Cook, TE, TEN
13.6 Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
13.7 Thomas Jones, RB, KC
13.8 Hines Ward, WR, PIT
13.9 Davone Bess, WR, MIA
13.10 Jerome Harrison, RB, DET
13.11 Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN
13.12 James Jones, WR, GB

NOTES: Zach Miller's value took a hit with the move to Seattle, but not this bad. The 2011 Draft Guide still projects him for 64 catches. ... Speaking of tight ends, Jared Cook should be on everyone's sleeper list. Freakish talent, even if he is still raw. ... James Jones goes three rounds after Jordy Nelson for no real reason other than no one wants to deal with this timeshare.


ROUND FOURTEEN

14.1 Lee Evans, WR, BUF
14.2 Steve Breaston, WR, KC
14.3 Saints D
14.4 Chargers D
14.5 Bernard Scott, RB, CIN
14.6 Danny Woodhead, RB, NEP
14.7 Earl Bennett, WR, CHI
14.8 Donovan McNabb, QB, MIN
14.9 Ricky Williams, RB, BAL
14.10 Cadillac Williams, RB, STL
14.11 Javon Ringer, RB, TEN
14.12 Kyle Orton, QB, DEN

NOTES: Ricky Williams projects as a goal-line back and a RB2 if Ray Rice should go down. Nice value here. ... Javon Ringer is worth stashing as a handcuff, but no one really thinks Chris Johnson is going to hold out through actual games. ... Steve Breaston is running behind Jerheme Urban at Chiefs camp. The 2011 Draft Guide has Breaston as just the No. 54 wideout.


ROUND FIFTEEN

15.1 Danario Alexander, WR, STL
15.2 Tarvaris Jackson, QB, SEA
15.3 Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ
15.4 Jason Snelling, RB, ATL
15.5 Marion Barber, RB, CHI
15.6 Ben Tate, RB, HOU
15.7 Steve Smith, WR, FA
15.8 Nate Kaeding, K, SD
15.9 Ben Watson, TE, CLE
15.10 Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT
15.11 Chiefs D
15.12 Dallas D

NOTES: Nate Kaeding is the No. 1 kicker in our rankings, yet he goes five rounds after Mason Crosby. Let that sink in before you take a kicker anywhere other than the last two rounds. ... I'm surprised Emmanuel Sanders slipped this far. His foot injury is healing rapidly and he has plenty of time to win that No. 3 wideout job. ... Danario Alexander is another worthwhile flier. If his knees are right, he can be a difference-maker.


ROUND SIXTEEN

16.1 Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
16.2 Stephen Gostkowski, K, NEP
16.3 Sebastian Janikowski, K, OAK
16.4 Adam Vinatieri, K, IND
16.5 Donnie Avery, WR, STL
16.6 Lions D
16.7 Alex Henery, K, PHI
16.8 David Buehler, K, DAL
16.9 Derrick Mason, WR, NYJ
16.10 Josh Brown, K, STL
16.11 Rob Bironas, K. TEN
16.12 Neil Rackers, K, HOU

NOTES: If there is such a thing, rookie Alex Henery is a kicker sleeper. Hard to see him failing considering he is part of the Eagles' explosive offense and he is the most accurate kicker in NCAA history.

 

[HacheMan]

Industry Draft Recap
Evan Silva represented us in NFL.com's industry league draft on Tuesday. It is a full point per reception (PPR) league and gives us a good idea about changing player values following free agency. Below are the picks with my notes.

Remember, we are updating the 2011 Draft Guide constantly to reflect all the changes going on around the league. More exclusive mocks will be coming there in the next few weeks as we swing into prime drafting season, also known as Fesitvus in August.

ROUND ONE

1.1 Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - ESPN
1.2 Arian Foster, RB, HOU - KFFL
1.3 Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Sirius XM
1.4 Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - Yahoo
1.5 Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Sports Illustrated
1.6 Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Rotowire
1.7 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB - Barber Boyz
1.8 Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Footballguys
1.9 LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - NFL.com
1.10 Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Fantasy Guru
1.11 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Rotoexperts
1.12 Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)

NOTES: I have seen the first four picks go in all different orders. It's a little surprising that after the Vikings suffered downgrades at wide receiver and offensive line in free agency, Peterson goes first in a full PPR format. ... The Ricky Williams signing in Baltimore is already having an effect. Now that Ray Rice is unlikely to see goal-line work, it's reasonable to take Darren McFadden ahead of him. ... Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't get how Aaron Rodgers consistently goes before Michael Vick. If you're worried about a Vick injury, just take Vince Young late and you're protected with a QB1. The 2011 Draft Guide has Vick No. 5 overall.


ROUND TWO

2.1 Jahvid Best, RB, DET - Rotoworld (Evan Silva)
2.2 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC - Rotoexperts
2.3 Roddy White, WR, ATL - Fantasy Guru
2.4 Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - NFL.com
2.5 Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Footballguys
2.6 Michael Turner, RB, ATL - Barber Boyz
2.7 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ - Rotowire
2.8 Frank Gore, RB, SF - Sports Illustrated
2.9 Tom Brady, QB, NEP - Yahoo
2.10 Drew Brees, QB, NO - Sirius XM
2.11 Greg Jennings, WR, GB - KFFL
2.12 Steven Jackson, RB, STL - ESPN

NOTES: We see the Mikel Leshoure (Achilles tear) fallout right away with our own Evan Silva. Now a threat for goal-line work and more snaps, Best is going to be extremely expensive in PPR formats. ... The owners in this league have clearly been following the Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) injury saga. Go here for more on why he is slipping. ... Michael Turner is in his decline phase, does not catch passes, Jason Snelling was re-signed and the Falcons are plotting a more aggressive passing attack. There are players with more upside out there. ... Tom Brady's ADP is going to rise now that Chad Ochocinco is in town. A full round-plus ahead of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning is worth noting. ... Frank Gore may have slipped due to lingering concerns over his hip. Note that Gore is fully recovered and set to be the focal point of the Niners' offense.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!


ROUND THREE

3.1 Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
3.2 Miles Austin, WR, DAL
3.3 DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
3.4 Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
3.5 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
3.6 Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE
3.7 Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
3.8 Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
3.9 Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
3.10 Philip Rivers, QB, SD
3.11 Peyton Manning, QB, IND
3.12 Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA

NOTES: Peyton Hillis will go higher in public drafts than "expert" drafts. Even though he figures to catch more passes in the Browns' new West Coast offense, a natural regression in workload and production from last year's breakout is expected. ... Shonn Greene is headed for a major bump in carries, but his lack of passing-game skills is a downer. ... As noted above, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning look like great values considering how high Tom Brady and Drew Brees went. Malcom Floyd returned to the Chargers and Austin Collie (concussions) appears fine. ... Note that Knowshon Moreno is back on the rise after the Broncos merely added Willis McGahee in free agency instead of DeAngelo Williams.


ROUND FOUR

4.1 Wes Welker, WR, NEP
4.2 LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
4.3 Mike Williams, WR, TB
4.4 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
4.5 Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
4.6 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
4.7 Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN
4.8 Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
4.9 Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
4.10 DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
4.11 Tony Romo, QB, DAL
4.12 Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI

NOTES: Notice how far LeGarrette Blount falls in this PPR format. He is reportedly improving on third downs, but is not expected to play in passing situations this season. ... Mike Williams and Dwayne Bowe are both monster talents that posted unsustainable catch-to-TD rates. Some owners will overpay. ... Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt are two of the biggest upside guys that are on everyone's radar. Be prepared to pay high prices for them, even against non-expert opponents. ... Antonio Gates would be a steal here if there weren't lingering concerns about his plantar fasciitis. He comes with risk this high now, especially when the tight end position is so deep. ... Wes Welker is obviously a PPR monster and gets a sizable downgrade in standard formats. The 2011 Draft Guide has him as the No. 10 wideout in PPR.


ROUND FIVE

5.1 Dallas Clark, TE, IND
5.2 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
5.3 Marques Colston, WR, NO
5.4 Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
5.5 Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
5.6 Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
5.7 Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA
5.8 Jason Witten, TE, DAL
5.9 Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
5.10 Vernon Davis, TE, SF
5.11 Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
5.12 Felix Jones, RB, DAL

NOTES: Here comes the tight end run. The first tier of five is really tight, so you will have to get in on this run right away or move on. ... Marques Colston (knee) had missed five straight practices as of Tuesday. Big red flags here. ... Ryan Mathews may have lost more value in the preseason than anyone so far. He was a late first-round fantasy pick last year, but is now a committee back that can't seem to sustain health. ... Even though Reggie Bush has been named the starter, Daniel Thomas goes a full two-plus rounds earlier. Don't let the coachspeak fool you here. ... Mark Ingram should be the first rookie off the board in all formats, even PPR.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

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ROUND SIX

6.1 Austin Collie, WR, IND
6.2 Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
6.3 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
6.4 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
6.5 Ryan Grant, RB, GB
6.6 Chad Ochocinco, WR, NEP
6.7 Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
6.8 Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
6.9 Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ
6.10 Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
6.11 Joseph Addai, RB, IND
6.12 Matt Schaub, QB, HOU

NOTES: The more concussions a player suffers, the more severe they typically get. But a player that has had previous concussions is not more susceptible to suffering one. Of course, we are talking about Austin Collie. It's a gamble, but one that aggressive owners will be taking. ... Jonathan Stewart could have been a first-round pick if DeAngelo Williams walked in free agency. Instead, he sinks like a stone. ... Matt Ryan is on the upswing with a new toy in Julio Jones and his offensive line mostly intact. ... Beanie Wells is in the midst of a positive training camp. It's hard to find a potential feature back with more upside this late. Guys like Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch and Ryan Grant just feel like backs owners settle for. ... Check out Chad Ochocinco's new expected value in his new home. He went from Andy Dalton to Tom Brady.


ROUND SEVEN

7.1 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
7.2 Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
7.3 Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
7.4 Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
7.5 Mike Sims-Walker, WR, STL
7.6 Braylon Edwards, WR, SF
7.7 Steve Smith, WR, CAR
7.8 Mike Thomas, WR, JAC
7.9 Danny Amendola, WR, STL
7.10 Ryan Williams, RB, ARZ
7.11 Lance Moore, WR, NO
7.12 Reggie Bush, RB, MIA

NOTES: Manningham is generating tons of buzz as a breakout guy, but his ADP isn't out of control yet. There is still tons of value here. ... Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards and Steve Smith are all talented guys that sink due to quarterback concerns. ... Mike Sims-Walker has the physical build of a No. 1 receiver in a Josh McDaniels offense. Danny Amendola has the look of a solid slot receiver in that same offense. ... Owen Daniels is the sixth tight end off the board, but it's nearly two rounds after that "Big Five" tier. ... Drew Brees begged for the Saints to retain Lance Moore and they did just that. ... The Dolphins are claiming Reggie Bush will get around 15 touches per game. We shall see.


ROUND EIGHT

8.1 Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
8.2 Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
8.3 Roy Williams, WR, CHI
8.4 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NEP
8.5 Josh Freeman, QB, TB
8.6 Santana Moss, WR, WAS
8.7 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
8.8 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NEP
8.9 Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
8.10 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
8.11 Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8.12 C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF

NOTES: Matthew Stafford is the No. 1 upside quarterback available after the first two tiers. If it wasn't for his fluky injuries over the last two years, he would be going four rounds earlier. ... Roy Willliams goes from an afterthought in Dallas to a No. 1 receiver in Chicago. That's right, the Bears coaches are running Williams ahead of Johnny Knox and predicting big things for his reunion with Mike Martz. It's a gamble as to whether he is up to the task. ... Michael Crabtree is missing yet another training camp and the Niners signed Braylon Edwards. His ADP should be falling rapidly. ... Note that Fred Jackson is finally the clear starter in Bills camp. Spiller has done nothing to threaten for the job and we project him for just 106 carries.


ROUND NINE

9.1 James Starks, RB, GB
9.2 Mike Tolbert, RB, SD
9.3 Ronnie Brown, RB, PHI
9.4 Packers D
9.5 Darren Sproles, RB, NO
9.6 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
9.7 Terrell Owens, WR, FA
9.8 Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
9.9 Ryan Torain, RB, WAS
9.10 Roy Helu, RB, WAS
9.11 Mike Williams, WR, SEA
9.12 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAC

NOTES: It still boggles my mind that defenses go this early. It's been established repeatedly that there just isn't that much difference between the No. 1 fantasy unit and the No. 10 unit. ... Mike Tolbert is going to at least get half the work, but he goes four rounds after Ryan Mathews. ... We discussed the plight of Johnny Knox earlier. I find it hard to believe that he will play behind Devin Hester, but that is what the Bears' coaches are saying. ... Ryan Torain is the starter in Washington and Tim Hightower may be the backup, but Roy Helu is the best talent. ... Ronnie Brown is not expected to be anything more than a mere handcuff to LeSean McCoy.


ROUND TEN

10.1 Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC
10.2 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
10.3 Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
10.4 Jacoby Ford, WR, JAC
10.5 Joe Flacco, QB, BAL
10.6 Steelers D
10.7 Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
10.8 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
10.9 Mason Crosby, K, GB
10.10 Eagles D
10.11 Kellen Winslow
10.12 Robert Meachem

NOTES: The Maurice Jones-Drew owner didn't lock up Rashard Jennings. He is a good bet to regret that later. ... Brandon Jacobs goes seven rounds after Ahmad Bradshaw. That is too much. ... It's hard to sell me that a defense could be worth more in raw value than a upside sleeper like Robert Meachem. ... Mason Crosby is the first kicker off the board. ... Evan Silva discussed Brandon Pettigrew's outlook in this column. ... Jordy Nelson would have been a mid-round value pick had James Jones walked. Now his upside is capped.

Editor's Note: For updated projections, rankings, exclusive columns, prospect reports, team reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

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ROUND ELEVEN

11.1 Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
11.2 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
11.3 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ
11.4 Sam Bradford, QB, STL
11.5 Jets D
11.6 Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
11.7 Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL
11.8 Patriots D
11.9 Willis McGahee, RB, DEN
11.10 Greg Little, WR, CLE
11.11 Matt Cassel, QB, KC
11.12 Michael Bush, RB, OAK

NOTES: Plaxico Burress will be 34 on Friday and hasn’t played since 2008. His draft position here reflects that. ... The same can be said for another big name without much has left, Tony Gonzalez. We have T-Gonz as the No. 16 fantasy tight end in the 2011 Draft Guide. ... The good news is that Greg Little is headed for a No. 1 receiver role. The bad news is he plays for the Browns. ... If Darren McFadden were to go down, Michael Bush would border on RB1 status.


ROUND TWELVE

12.1 Tim Hightower, RB, WAS
12.2 DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
12.3 Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
12.4 Kevin Kolb, QB, ARZ
12.5 Shane Vereen, RB, NEP
12.6 Matt Bryant, K, ATL
12.7 Giants D
12.8 Delone Carter, RB, IND
12.9 Deion Branch, WR, NEP
12.10 Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
12.11 Eric Decker, WR, DEN
12.12 Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU

NOTES: Tim Hightower is headed for at least a third-down role in Washington. Cheap PPR flier. ... Greg Olsen is firmly on the TE2 radar in Carolina's new TE-friendly scheme. Don't forget he isn't with Mike Martz anymore. ... Jacoby Jones always appears to be on the brink of the light going on. Definitely worth a flier as Kevin Walter gets a year older.


ROUND THIRTEEN

13.1 Ravens D
13.2 Bears D
13.3 Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN
13.4 Zach Miller, TE, SEA
13.5 Jared Cook, TE, TEN
13.6 Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
13.7 Thomas Jones, RB, KC
13.8 Hines Ward, WR, PIT
13.9 Davone Bess, WR, MIA
13.10 Jerome Harrison, RB, DET
13.11 Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN
13.12 James Jones, WR, GB

NOTES: Zach Miller's value took a hit with the move to Seattle, but not this bad. The 2011 Draft Guide still projects him for 64 catches. ... Speaking of tight ends, Jared Cook should be on everyone's sleeper list. Freakish talent, even if he is still raw. ... James Jones goes three rounds after Jordy Nelson for no real reason other than no one wants to deal with this timeshare.


ROUND FOURTEEN

14.1 Lee Evans, WR, BUF
14.2 Steve Breaston, WR, KC
14.3 Saints D
14.4 Chargers D
14.5 Bernard Scott, RB, CIN
14.6 Danny Woodhead, RB, NEP
14.7 Earl Bennett, WR, CHI
14.8 Donovan McNabb, QB, MIN
14.9 Ricky Williams, RB, BAL
14.10 Cadillac Williams, RB, STL
14.11 Javon Ringer, RB, TEN
14.12 Kyle Orton, QB, DEN

NOTES: Ricky Williams projects as a goal-line back and a RB2 if Ray Rice should go down. Nice value here. ... Javon Ringer is worth stashing as a handcuff, but no one really thinks Chris Johnson is going to hold out through actual games. ... Steve Breaston is running behind Jerheme Urban at Chiefs camp. The 2011 Draft Guide has Breaston as just the No. 54 wideout.


ROUND FIFTEEN

15.1 Danario Alexander, WR, STL
15.2 Tarvaris Jackson, QB, SEA
15.3 Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ
15.4 Jason Snelling, RB, ATL
15.5 Marion Barber, RB, CHI
15.6 Ben Tate, RB, HOU
15.7 Steve Smith, WR, FA
15.8 Nate Kaeding, K, SD
15.9 Ben Watson, TE, CLE
15.10 Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT
15.11 Chiefs D
15.12 Dallas D

NOTES: Nate Kaeding is the No. 1 kicker in our rankings, yet he goes five rounds after Mason Crosby. Let that sink in before you take a kicker anywhere other than the last two rounds. ... I'm surprised Emmanuel Sanders slipped this far. His foot injury is healing rapidly and he has plenty of time to win that No. 3 wideout job. ... Danario Alexander is another worthwhile flier. If his knees are right, he can be a difference-maker.


ROUND SIXTEEN

16.1 Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
16.2 Stephen Gostkowski, K, NEP
16.3 Sebastian Janikowski, K, OAK
16.4 Adam Vinatieri, K, IND
16.5 Donnie Avery, WR, STL
16.6 Lions D
16.7 Alex Henery, K, PHI
16.8 David Buehler, K, DAL
16.9 Derrick Mason, WR, NYJ
16.10 Josh Brown, K, STL
16.11 Rob Bironas, K. TEN
16.12 Neil Rackers, K, HOU

NOTES: If there is such a thing, rookie Alex Henery is a kicker sleeper. Hard to see him failing considering he is part of the Eagles' explosive offense and he is the most accurate kicker in NCAA history.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 fantasy football sleepers, busts

Fantasy Staff
ESPN.com


Now that the lockout is over and most of the frantic offseason player movement has subsided, it's time for our ESPN Fantasy analysts to revisit their sleepers and busts for the 2011 season at the primary fantasy football positions of quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.
For the most part, our sleepers and busts reflect what our analysts believe are players who will either break through or underperform based on their current preseason ranking/draft-day value. For additional help, our analysts are also providing deeper sleeper picks at quarterback, running back and wide receiver; these players are mostly being undrafted in ESPN live drafts this summer.
Our analysts providing their picks time around are: Stephania Bell, Matthew Berry, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Shawn Cwalinski, Ken Daube, Christopher Harris, Dave Hunter, Keith Lipscomb, AJ Mass, James Quintong, Nate Ravitz and Brendan Roberts.


Sleepers

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>QB </TH><TH>RB </TH><TH>WR </TH><TH>TE </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>Willis McGahee </TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco </TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Berry </TD><TD>Matthew Stafford </TD><TD>Ryan Williams </TD><TD>Anquan Boldin </TD><TD>Greg Olsen </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Matt Ryan </TD><TD>Beanie Wells </TD><TD>Austin Collie </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cwalinski </TD><TD>Sam Bradford </TD><TD>Shonn Greene </TD><TD>Johnny Knox </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Daube </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>Ryan Mathews </TD><TD>Steve Breaston </TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Joe Flacco </TD><TD>Jahvid Best </TD><TD>Austin Collie </TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller </TD><TD>Jordy Nelson </TD><TD>Kevin Boss </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>Shonn Greene </TD><TD>Mario Manningham </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>Felix Jones </TD><TD>Mario Manningham </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mass </TD><TD>Sam Bradford </TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount </TD><TD>Sidney Rice </TD><TD>Dustin Keller </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Matthew Stafford </TD><TD>Reggie Bush </TD><TD>Malcom Floyd </TD><TD>Tony Moeaki </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller </TD><TD>Roy Williams </TD><TD>Jared Cook </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller </TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco </TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Additional notes on some of the sleepers:
Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams: The Rams added Mike Sims-Walker through free agency, and three of their first four draft picks were spent on potential pass-catchers of the future (Lance Kendricks, Austin Pettis, Greg Salas). If Bradford threw for more than 3,500 yards without any real weapons last season, what will he do with a Josh McDaniels-led arsenal? --AJ Mass
Kevin Kolb, QB, Arizona Cardinals: Regardless of what that Arizona QB Circus in 2010 showed, this is a good offense for a quarterback; the team throws the ball often (561 passes versus a league-low 320 rushes last season) and has a slanting, quick-strike attack that is a perfect fit for the accurate Kolb. --Brendan Roberts
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Last year, the Lions as a team passed for more than 3,800 yards and 26 touchdowns with three different guys, and only two teams attempted more passes than the Lions. This is a prolific passing offense with a lot of playmakers. Stafford needs to stay healthy, but looking at the 26 fantasy points per game he put up in the two full games he played last year, you start to see the possibilities. Well worth a late-round flier. --Matthew Berry
Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets: The Jets will run the ball a lot. Although LaDainian Tomlinson is still going to get carries, he'll get fewer this season than last. Greene won't be a top-10 fantasy running back but will be better than the 25th-best -- his current draft position. --Shawn Cwalinski
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: I was spectacularly wrong on Spiller last year. So what do you do in that case? You double-down. Last year, a strong preseason ended up killing a lot of Spiller's sleeper value, exacerbating a bad rookie season. This year, you can get him in Round 11 or later, and I still believe he's the future of Buffalo's backfield. --Nate Ravitz
Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts: I'm a noted fan of "per-game" players, those whose production in their healthy games matches or approaches that of an elite player. Collie qualifies: In nine games in 2010, he topped 20 points three times, and his 11.9 points-per-game average would've resulted in a 190-point, 16-game season, which would've been fifth among wide receivers. Health is an issue, especially one with a a history of concussions. But what if the summer's rest keeps Collie off the trainer's table more than in 2010? It's a chance worth taking so late. --Tristan H. Cockcroft
<INLINE1>Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants: I was encouraged by the way he finished last season (three straight 100-yard games and four touchdowns), but even more so, I love his big-play ability for a receiver being taken as a No. 3 in fantasy leagues. Only four players had more catches for 25 yards or longer last season (Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson). Even if Steve Smith gets healthy and re-signs with the Giants, Manningham clearly has a place in this offense and a quality QB to get him the ball. --Keith Lipscomb
Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints: Pass on the early tight ends and turn to a sleeper with a prolific passing offense. Drew Brees kept Graham busy from Week 15 on, when he scored four touchdowns. With Jeremy Shockey out of the way, Graham should catch 60 passes and score at least six or seven times. --Eric Karabell


Deep Sleepers

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>QB </TH><TH>RB </TH><TH>WR </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Matt Hasselbeck </TD><TD>Roy Helu </TD><TD>Derrick Mason </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Berry </TD><TD>Jason Campbell </TD><TD>Delone Carter </TD><TD>Arrelious Benn </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Kyle Orton </TD><TD>Roy Helu </TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cwalinski </TD><TD>Kyle Orton </TD><TD>Tim Hightower </TD><TD>Jacoby Ford </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Daube </TD><TD>Matt Hasselbeck </TD><TD>Ronnie Brown </TD><TD>Eric Decker </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Kyle Orton </TD><TD>Shane Vereen </TD><TD>Greg Little </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Colt McCoy </TD><TD>Roy Helu </TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Kyle Orton </TD><TD>Montario Hardesty </TD><TD>Jacoby Ford </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Donovan McNabb </TD><TD>Rashad Jennings </TD><TD>Donnie Avery </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mass </TD><TD>Chad Henne </TD><TD>Javon Ringer </TD><TD>Devery Henderson </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Andy Dalton </TD><TD>Montario Hardesty </TD><TD>Danario Alexander </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Colt McCoy </TD><TD>Delone Carter </TD><TD>Jordan Shipley </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Tim Tebow </TD><TD>Rashad Jennings </TD><TD>Hines Ward </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Additional notes on some of the deeper sleepers:
Colt McCoy, QB, Cleveland Browns: McCoy has the talent to succeed and will be given the chance to lead the Browns all season. He has recovered from shoulder issues, and although there are questions revolving around the Browns' new offense, McCoy's ability to be a leader and his accuracy make him a nice gamble. --Dave Hunter
Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos: Tim Tebow might be the exciting youngster in Denver, but as things stand early in August, Orton is atop the depth chart. It's deserved; Orton had six games of 20-plus fantasy points in his first 11 games in 2010 and primarily lost his job after a two-game slump because the Broncos were out of the race and wanted to look at their rookie. The Broncos are smart to -- at the bare minimum -- showcase Orton for trade, so when you see him in there in Week 1, don't say you were surprised. --Tristan H. Cockcroft

Delone Carter, RB, Indianapolis Colts: If we learned anything from Javarris James last year, it's that anyone can have fantasy value on the Colts. With Joseph Addai's well-documented injury history, Donald Brown's well-documented suckitude and the fact that the Colts spent a fourth-round draft pick on the 225-pound Carter, this tells me he is guy who could easily emerge as the goal-line back with upside for more in a prolific offense. --Matthew Berry
Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns: He was considered a sleeper heading into last season before he suffered a knee injury late in the preseason. I'm not convinced Peyton Hillis can repeat his surprise 2010 campaign (and he did stumble a bit down the stretch), thus opening a spot for Hardesty to contribute sooner rather than later. --James Quintong
Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins: There's no easy road to carries for Helu this season, but with the success that head coach Mike Shanahan has had with running backs in the past, I like Helu's chances to make an impact, especially when you consider the weak competition and history in Ryan Torain and Tim Hightower. --Dave Hunter
Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have been saying this preseason that they want to get Maurice Jones-Drew a lesser workload in 2011. Sure, we've heard that before, but this time around, the Jags have a backup who deserves extra work. Jennings shined when given opportunities last season -- he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and caught 26 passes -- and could even work himself into a time-share if the Jags are serious about cutting back MJD. --Brendan Roberts
Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos: It wasn't uncommon for experts to rank Decker as the third-best collegiate wide receiver in 2009 behind only Dez Bryant and A.J. Green. Decker's rookie season was knocked off track because of an injury, but he still has the skills and work ethic needed to contribute at this level. --Ken Daube
Jacoby Ford, WR, Oakland Raiders: Last season, Ford averaged 18.8 yards per reception and 15.5 yards per rushing attempt -- with two TDs -- and returned three kicks for scores. Ford has what the Raiders love the most in a wide receiver: a ton of speed. Don't be scared off by the broken thumb, Ford will be fine when the season starts and will be a nice late-round pick. --Shawn Cwalinski


Busts

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>QB </TH><TH>RB </TH><TH>WR </TH><TH>TE </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Chad Henne </TD><TD>Jahvid Best </TD><TD>Brandon Marshall </TD><TD>Kellen Winslow </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Berry </TD><TD>Matt Ryan </TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew </TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe </TD><TD>Zach Miller </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Tony Romo </TD><TD>Michael Turner </TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cwalinski </TD><TD>Matt Ryan </TD><TD>Frank Gore </TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks </TD><TD>Owen Daniels </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Daube </TD><TD>Josh Freeman </TD><TD>Darren McFadden </TD><TD>Mike Williams (TB) </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Michael Vick </TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd </TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Peyton Manning </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Matt Cassel </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis </TD><TD>Michael Crabtree </TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Michael Vick </TD><TD>Michael Turner </TD><TD>Marques Colston </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mass </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>Mark Ingram </TD><TD>Lance Moore </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Michael Vick </TD><TD>Steven Jackson </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd </TD><TD>Zach Miller </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger </TD><TD>Ryan Mathews </TD><TD>Dez Bryant </TD><TD>None </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Michael Vick </TD><TD>Frank Gore </TD><TD>Austin Collie </TD><TD>Jermichael Finley </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Additional notes on some of the busts:
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers: He's a tough guy and will play through the injuries that you just know are going to come; when they do, his performance will suffer. No disrespect. He's a winner, but in terms of fantasy, he's a step removed from the elite tier ahead of him, whose team gets into the red zone and takes all the air out of the ball. --AJ Mass
Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Even putting aside the injury risk (which is hard to do), Vick is a terrible candidate to repeat. As defenses put more pressure on him from Week 11 on last year, he became a turnover machine. No quarterback who's rushed for eight or more touchdowns in a season has ever come back and rushed for even five the next year. That includes Vick himself in 2002. --Christopher Harris
<INLINE2>Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns: Even if one argues that Hillis simply wore down and it's the cause of late-season struggles, now he has to deal with a healthy Montario Hardesty and usable third-down back Brandon Jackson. Don't ignore Hillis, but last season's No. 4 overall running back shouldn't be relied on as a sure-thing top-20 player. --Eric Karabell
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons: This is a gut call, because of the Burner's past workload. After all, what's not to like about 39 touchdowns in 43 games the past three seasons? However, he owns two of the top five single-season rushing attempt totals in those three years, and he's just one year from the dreaded age of 30. Truth be told, there aren't even 10 running backs I feel 100 percent sure about, but since I have my reservations about Turner's staying on the field this season, I'm hoping to land someone else as my No. 1 running back. --Keith Lipscomb
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys: During our rankings summit, Stephania Bell rattled off about seven different injuries that have afflicted Bryant in the past ... then hit us with the fact that all were in the previous 12 months. On a team that also has Jason Witten and Miles Austin, I'm supposed to trust Bryant with a fourth-round pick? Why? Because he "looks good in a uniform"? No thanks. --Nate Ravitz
Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos: Lloyd's yards-after-the-catch last year was 15.9. In John Fox's nine years in Carolina, his top wideout averaged 10.2. Even if Kyle Orton really is the QB all year over Tim Tebow (which I doubt), Fox's offense won't go into Josh McDaniels "Jump Ball Mode" in '11. Let someone else draft Lloyd, because he's not sniffing the top 10 wideouts this year. --Christopher Harris


Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars: If you aren't hesitant to group Lewis into the third tier of tight ends, you aren't paying attention. He had just seven touchdowns in 62 games before exploding for 10 last season. Throw in a probable change to a rookie quarterback during the upcoming campaign, and Lewis screams "bust." --Ken Daube

 

[HacheMan]

Mathews off to rough start, out Thursday

By Eric Karabell

is a bit disappointing that San Diego Chargers sophomore running back Ryan Mathews will not dress for Thursday's preseason opener against the Seattle Seahawks (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Mathews, the first rookie selected in most 2010 fantasy drafts and also one of the season's bigger disappointments, missed a few regular-season games last year, as well. Although we shouldn't read too much into his missing an otherwise meaningless August affair, one has to wonder what he'll look like in September.


Mathews will sit with a slight muscle strain in his upper leg, probably not something to worry about. But this is only the latest bit of negative information on Mathews since the lockout ended. He also showed up to camp in less than perfect shape after the long offseason, unable to finish a conditioning test. Mathews told the San Diego Union-Tribune he hadn't been doing much speed work and "there's a couple things I probably should have done differently in the offseason, conditioning my legs."


<OFFER>Well, that's exactly what a fantasy owner looking for a sleeper wants to read, right? Look, it's the second week of August. Coach Norv Turner sprung a surprise conditioning test on the skill players and Mathews struggled. Perhaps that will motivate him. Mathews has more than a month to get his legs -- and sore toe that kept him from a few practices -- in proper shape for the season opener, and although he's in a presumed timeshare with the larger Mike Tolbert, Mathews is the one with the major upside. He's being selected as a top-20 running back in ESPN average live drafts, and in the top 40 overall, so let's just say expectations are high yet again.

It's not a copout to say it's too early to tell which direction Mathews takes. Although there are plenty of real-life, first-round busts, Mathews clearly has ability. He was the 12th pick in the 2010 draft, the second running back off the board (after C.J. Spiller of the Buffalo Bills), and although he finished with only 107 standard fantasy points, good for 32nd among running backs, his 678 rushing yards led all nine drafted running backs (only undrafted LeGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory topped it). Mathews missed games from Weeks 11-13, then produced 12, 5, 13 and a cool 31 fantasy points during the fantasy playoffs, a hopeful precursor for this season.


Let's focus on those numbers, rather than the 46 fantasy points over the first 13 weeks, which includes the missed games with a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 2. In Week 1, Mathews ran for 78 yards before getting hurt. He possesses good speed and size, checking in at 6-foot and 218 pounds, and it's too early to call him brittle, or a fantasy bust. Despite a lack of good news over the past two weeks, he's actually trending up a bit, 13th among running backs in ESPN snake drafts over the past seven days. I'm guessing it's because fantasy owners remember how highly touted he was at this time a year ago. A failed conditioning test and missed preseason game can't change that, certainly not yet. Frankly, after being selected 25th overall in drafts a year ago, he's a bit of a bargain now. Mathews still has the ability that tempted us last August. All that has changed is he had a rough go of things, and we saw the emergence of 243-pound fullback Tolbert, who could share the carries with Mathews, or easily find himself yearning for the football as a blocker and occasional goal-line option. In fact, Tolbert, who was a fantasy stalwart by scoring double-digit touchdowns last season, said he expects Mathews to perform better, noting, "For the amount of time he's had in this offense, and the amount of work he's had, Ryan is doing a good job."


I haven't selected Mathews in any mock drafts yet, but I'd call that circumstance rather than an actual plan to avoid him. We've seen glimpses of the upside, and now we just need to see him play consistently and, as Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune, "we expect him to be outstanding." Although it might appear that choosing him in the fourth round is a bit early, the other options in his range also have question marks, led by Knowshon Moreno, Jonathan Stewart and Jahvid Best. Taking Mathews seems to be a good risk.

 

[HacheMan]

Will Ricky steal Rice's thunders?

Will Ricky Williams deflate Ray Rice's production?
Ray Rice has been drinking plenty of chocolate coconut water while training at his alma mater, New Rochelle High School, this summer.

Routine defined his offseason schedule, as it did for many NFL players, particularly when the lockout left them to tend to their own training regiments. Whether working with heavy ropes, running routes on the beach or simply doing full days of traditional weight and cardio work, work was indeed put in. This proved especially important given that Rice had minor surgery on his knee before the lockout began back in March, an ailment he says he is completely past.
While spending a week in Oregon at Nike's world headquarters in early July covering an elite high school football event, "The Opening," I was able to speak with Rice, who was coaching young tailbacks all week, and his trainer about his offseason and more importantly, the upcoming 2011 season.


"I feel like this is going to be a big year for me for several reasons," said Rice, who is a free agent after this season. "I've trained hard every offseason, but this one is special because I have to prove my value and help lead this offense. I'm going to get a lot of work, and I had to prepare myself to withstand what comes my way."


Rice is coming off of a season in which he tallied 1,776 total yards and scored six touchdowns. In fantasy considerations, despite the gaudy yardage, it was deemed a disappointing season due to Rice's expensive draft price and his languid start to the season that included no scores and just 76 total yards per game in his first four contests. In real football terms, Rice did well to amass so many yards in the face of a lingering knee ailment he incurred in September.

The Ravens have shaken up their tailback corps this offseason. Gone from the backfield mix in Baltimore are the "Mc's" -- touchdown vulture Willis McGahee and versatile fullback Le'Ron McClain, who together accounted for 128 carries and 35 catches out of the backfield. Fullback Vonta Leach and veteran tailbackRicky Williams now join Rice to form the Ravens' rushing attack, a unit which was sixth in the NFL in terms of rush attempts last season.


How will these roster transitions affect Rice as he enters his prime production years?


We'll start with Leach, since it's bound to be a brief evaluation. McClain averaged 58 touches over the past two seasons in Baltimore after compiling more than 1,000 yards of total offense in 2008 on more than 250 touches. Leach, meanwhile, is a truly traditional fullback who has zero rushes in his past two seasons but has 28 receptions (20 of them coming in 2009) in that time. Leach is among the most respected and effective blocking backs in the game, as proved by the consistent lanes he opened last season in Houston for Arian Foster. If anything, this addition only helps the increasingly busy Rice, who topped 300 carries for the first time in 2010, his third season.


The major question, then, is how does Ricky Williams, who posted just under 1,400 total yards and 13 touchdowns in a 2009 renaissance effort, affect Rice's potential as an elite, top-tier fantasy back?


For an anemic Miami running game last season, Williams was the rare bright spot, averaging 4.2 yards per tote to the team's overall 3.7 clip. But if we consider his prolific 2009 season the result of roster circumstance, with incumbent starter Ronnie Brown going down in Week 9 that season, we should then look to what Williams worked with in 2008 and 2010, seemingly more traditional workloads for the veteran.
In 2008, Williams carried the ball 159 times and last season he took on 160 carries. He also hauled in 24 receptions per each of these seasons, putting him at roughly 185 touches per "backup" or "shared" campaigns with Brown in Miami. Let's assume that Williams is in line for the same amount of work in Baltimore, in the 180-touch range. If you consider that McGahee averaged around 115 touches in his past two seasons in Baltimore, with significant goal-line work, that crudely results in 65 more touches for Williams over what we saw McGahee net as Rice's complementary back the past two years. If we also consider the 58 touches McClain was getting per season in Baltimore, and the fact Leach won't get much, if any, work from the ground, then we're looking at a fairly similar dispersal of work in this 2011 backfield, but just with more of it going to Williams in the absence of a busy fullback.


This crude evaluation merely serves to suggest that even with Williams in town, Rice should still get workhorse duties even while ceding 180 or so touches. Backup and complementary backs aren't the premier threats to a starting running back's job security and production, health and production are. Every stud running back needs a reprieve, and Williams is now serving that role for Rice.


The biggest remaining question, one that simply can't be answered until the results on the field bear it out, is how the goal-line work will be divvied up between Rice and Williams. McGahee scored 20 touchdowns the past two seasons, 17 from the ground. If Rice, who is assuredly built well enough to withstand the punishment of goal-line work, can get a larger share of the scoring duties in working with Williams, it only stands to benefit his fantasy production.

I've championed Rice as a top-five selection in fantasy leagues this season. It so happens that I drafted fifth in our first two staff mock drafts, and both times landed Rice at that spot. After Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles, I value Rice as the next best commodity. How many backs going into the 2011 season could arguably, and maybe even likely, get nearly 400 total touches? Rice is one of them.
Given a PPR context, Rice jumps into the second or third spot overall behind Foster and possibly Johnson. In leagues that reward receptions, you can't do much better than Rice, as he was third in the league in targets (82) and receptions (63) for running backs last season and was tops in the NFL in 2009 with 101 targets and 78 receptions.


Total touches, it seems, aren't a concern, even with "Run Ricky Run" competing for carries. Fantasy owners covet touchdowns, especially in standard formats where Rice's receptions go unvalued.


Frankly, there's no way to predict Rice's scoring opportunities, but the departure of McGahee could help to that end. What we can assess is his total yardage baseline, which is among the best in football, and the heavy workload he is in line for, which again is among the highest in football. In the end, Rice claims the requisite ingredients to be an elite fantasy running back.


Forgiveness is rare in fantasy football, but in order to acquire Rice, you'll need to forgive his middling touchdown totals from 2010 and instead focus on the potential of future returns as he enters his prime.

 

[HacheMan]

Thoughts on Ricky, Ronnie, handcuffs

By Eric Karabell

In 2009, then-Miami Dolphins running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 2,131 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. The year prior it was 2,048 total yards and 15 scores. OK, so last season wasn't such a picnic, but these guys certainly mattered from a fantasy football standpoint. Both of them.


Now check out what happened in the past two weeks. The Dolphins made it clear they were moving on to a combination of rookie Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush, so Brown and Williams signed low-cost deals with the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, respectively. Wait, don't those teams currently employ two fantasy-first-round running backs? Why yes they do! Our current ESPN Fantasy projections for Brown and Williams have them combining for less than 1,400 total yards and six touchdowns. Yawn.
Because these fellows have relatively memorable names in the fantasy community, they are likely to be drafted even in ESPN standard leagues. Currently Brown is 49th among running backs and Williams 52nd, each in the 14th round, while Brown's draft position has actually dropped in the past week and Williams' has gone up quite a bit, probably because he found work more recently. Still, while you really can't rip a 14th-round draft pick -- sure, might as well take a shot on upside there, since there's no risk -- I don't see any reason to get excited about either player.
For full disclosure, I can tell you I'm not a big believer in handcuffing backup running backs to my early picks. For one, this practice presumes that if your stud player were to get hurt, the next-in-line option would perform at a rate worth owning in a fantasy league. However, the main reason I don't bother is because I can generally find better draft options. I mean, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are solid first-round picks -- fifth and seventh, respectively, in average ESPN live drafts -- for a reason, and not only thanks to their stalwart production, but their durability as well. What are the chances one of them will miss games? McCoy broke a rib last season and kept on playing. These guys also don't leave the game on third down; they combined for 141 receptions. If choosing between Brown and Williams for your team's fourth or fifth running back slot, I'd go with Williams. Brown had the better statistics a year ago, but I see him as more of a "wildcat" type of player in Philly, someone who will really scuffle to earn touches. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick runs quite a bit himself, and while this could be a prolific offense, I don't see Brown reaching the ESPN projections of 84 standard fantasy points (535 rushing yards, three touchdowns).


The Ravens could be different; a year ago, Willis McGahee received only 100 rushes, but he scored five touchdowns. Williams could be in line for goal-line work, frustrating Rice owners again. And Williams also seems to have fresher legs to me. He averaged 4.2 yards per rush for the 2010 season, and 4.7 yards the year before. Brown has dealt with injury problems, and other than a magical five-touchdown game against the New England Patriots early in 2008, hasn't seemed all that special of late. And I think McCoy is less likely to share touches than Rice.
You want handcuff options? I'm sure I'll be updating/expanding this in future blog entries, but for now I see few running backs I'm viewing as worthy top-150 fantasy picks based on the premise. Look, I can find probably 25 actual handcuff choices. I don't consider Mike Tolbert, Montario Hardesty, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber or any Washington Redskins handcuffs, because to me a handcuff is a backup not likely to get touches, then all of a sudden the main guy is out and he does. These are the five I consider the most interesting handcuffs for Round 13 or later:
Javon Ringer, Tennessee Titans: I think eventually Chris Johnson will show up and play, though. And he should play well.
Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: Whereas Rice and McCoy aren't injury concerns, Maurice Jones-Drew still kind of is.
Anthony Dixon, San Francisco 49ers: I'm not targeting Frank Gore in leagues, but if I got him, I'd consider his injury history.
Jordan Todman, San Diego Chargers: I blogged in a positive light about Ryan Mathews on Wednesday, but this UConn product has skills, too. Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals: The mediocre Cedric Benson returned to Cincy, where he averaged 3.5 yards per rush. Scott averaged 4.9 yards per rush in 2010.

 

[HacheMan]

Time-share or not, Jahvid Best has limits

By Eric Karabell

On Monday, fantasy owners everywhere probably changed their opinion on the draft status of enticing Detroit Lions sophomore running back Jahvid Best. Even I admit I had to reevaluate. Of course, by Tuesday it was again time to change the opinion we had changed in the first place. Let me explain.

When it comes to Best, I think we can all agree there's a wonderfully talented player lurking there, a lightning-quick game-breaker who can be magical in the open field. Best had his moments as a rookie, but not enough of them because turf toe and other ailments caused his performance and availability to fluctuate, seemingly from week to week. Durability was always a concern with the diminutive Best (although the 3.2 yards per rush is another matter for a later date, I suppose). Still, the guy can play.

The Lions hedged their considerable bets -- when teams do things like this, it speaks volumes to fantasy owners -- by drafting the large but still speedy and elusive Mikel Leshoure in the second round out of Illinois to share running back duties with the smaller, faster Best. Naturally, it scared those who had protected Best or were targeting him before fellow owners. It sure looked like a time-share, and that's rarely a good thing in the fantasy/statistical world.
So on Monday morning, we had a time-share between Leshoure and Best.
On Monday afternoon, we learned that Leshoure had ruptured an Achilles' tendon in practice Monday, ending his season.
And less than 24 hours later, the Lions had picked up Jerome Harrison and Mike Bell.
Gee, hope you didn't pick Best in the second or third round on Monday night! Look, I know Best is talented, and I'll get to Harrison and Bell in a moment, but I think this situation is quickly back to some form -- a lesser one, perhaps -- of a time-share, as annoying as it might be. My colleague Christopher Harris is a big Best fan; in his projection of the Lions' back, he wrote, "This is not hyperbole: Best has Jamaal Charles-style upside." Harris knows his stuff, and someday Best might achieve this level of success. Maybe he does it this season. But as soon as Leshoure went down Monday, the Lions filled the role with a few veterans who mattered as recently as 2009. The Lions are telling you that Best is not going to be the every-down running back, and that they are concerned about his health. That's why Best wasn't in my top 20 running backs when Leshoure was healthy, and why Best still isn't.


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Leshoure was probably being a bit "overdrafted" in the ninth round. Now he's being avoided and dropped. But entering Monday, he was being selected ahead of such backs as Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai and even fellow rookie Ryan Williams of the Arizona Cardinals, who also was in line for opportunities. Leshoure was no lock. He's a rookie! And next year he plays the role of Montario Hardesty and Ben Tate, rookies that didn't make it to the field as rookies. It's kind of a shame.
Best is being selected as the No. 21 running back, and that was with the threat of the Leshoure time-share. I think in the past 24 hours, Best's stock went up quite a bit. I'm just not sure it should, even if you don't like the team's new options.
Harrison and Bell are hardly guarantees, either. In fact, it's no lock they even make the Lions, a team that still employs wily veteran Maurice Morris. Both Harrison and Bell are 28. Harrison famously produced some monster performances late in the 2009 season -- he ran for 286 yards and three touchdowns at Kansas City in Week 15 -- but was regarded by the Cleveland Browns as eminently replaceable. He did not impress early in the 2010 season while Peyton Hillis did, and the former was sent to the Philadelphia Eagles, coincidentally enough for this same Mike Bell, now his teammate. How ironic!
Harrison wasn't given much run in Philly, so I don't want to judge him for 40 carries. He did have a 100-yard game, and in Week 17, as the lead running back, he totaled 116 yards from scrimmage. Bell led the New Orleans Saints in carries in 2009 and was a goal-line presence, but he looked completely done last year, averaging 2.1 yards per his 47 rushes. At least Harrison showed something. I'd still draft Best first among the Lions running backs, probably around No. 25 at the position, but don't go too far. Health is an issue, and I could certainly see a scenario in which either Morris or Harrison get as many or more rushing attempts, and Bell gets the goal-line looks. Best stands 5-foot-9 and weighs 190 pounds. I think he'll make a bigger impact catching the football -- he caught 58 passes as a rookie -- and the Lions will try to steer away from giving him the tough carries on the ground. I'd figure Harrison is the handcuff, but there's not a ton of upside in this offense. Maybe he's a 14th- or 15th-round draft pick in standard formats.