Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

There's a Lot More Left

The post-lockout frenzy is in full swing, and Adam Levitan got you up to speed on Wednesday's moves in his late-night column.</B> Now, let's look ahead to Thursday.
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While some of the top free agents already reached "agreements in principle", there is plenty of elite talent left on the board. Here are the top-ten remaining unsigned veterans:

1. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha

Cornerback is free agency's deepest position, but there's a holdup. It's because Asomugha hasn't agreed to terms yet. The Jets and 49ers have been his most ardent pursuers, and the Texans also remain in the mix. Look for Asomugha's agent to broker a deal by this afternoon.

Prediction: Jets on a five-year, $65 million contract.

2. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph

Joseph is a ball-hawking "off-man" corner with elite talent but a checkered injury history. The Texans consider him a viable fall-back option if they don't land Asomugha, and it's reasonable to think the 49ers feel the same way. When Asomugha agrees to terms, Joseph will soon follow.

Prediction: Texans on a four-year, $33 million contract.

3. Nose Tackle Aubrayo Franklin

Rumors have been scant about Franklin's suitors, but 320-pound, true 3-4 nose tackles are hard to find. The Chiefs lost incumbent Ron Edwards to the Panthers on Tuesday, creating a hole inside. Kansas City has been active in free agency and needs to prioritize signing Franklin quickly.

Prediction: Chiefs on a four-year, $30 million contract.

4. Running Back Ahmad Bradshaw

The Dolphins and Giants are in hot pursuit of Bradshaw, who runs angry for a small back and excels in the passing game. One report claimed Bradshaw priced himself out of the Fins' range on Wednesday. The G-Men should swoop in today, because he's a necessity in their offense.

Prediction: Giants on a five-year, $37 million contract.

5. Defensive Tackle Brandon Mebane

Mebane is a classic "three-technique," pass-rushing tackle who played out of position in new Seattle coach Pete Carroll's system last year. The Seahawks have considered keeping him, but the Broncos are strongly in the mix. There's a bigger need and better fit for Mebane in Denver.

Prediction: Broncos on a five-year, $28 million contract.

6. Defensive End Ray Edwards

The media has touted Edwards as a better pass rusher than he actually is; he was single blocked throughout his time as a starter in Minnesota. Character concerns have also affected Edwards' market. He won't get Charles Johnson money, but the Titans, Browns, and Eagles have sniffed around him enough to suggest Edwards will emerge from free agency very well compensated.

Prediction: Titans on a four-year, $40 million contract.

7. Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards

Edwards confirmed via Twitter on Wednesday that the Jets haven't even contacted him about a contract. New York's focus is elsewhere. It's fair to wonder if Edwards will even approach Santonio Holmes and Sidney Rice money, because there have been more reports of teams having "no interest" than in pursuit. A deep-pocketed, free-spending owner can change that.

Prediction: Redskins on a six-year, $40 million contract.

8. Offensive Guard Davin Joseph

Pro personnel departments have mixed opinions on Joseph because 1) He only fits power-blocking schemes and 2) He's been so injury prone that there's limited recent film on the 27-year-old. The Bucs are smartly slow-playing Joseph's market, which hasn't developed quickly.

Prediction: Buccaneers on six-year, $30 million contract.

9. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie

Cromartie can be a head case on the field and only fits defenses that run a lot of press-man coverage. He was a perfect match for Rex Ryan, but the Jets are targeting bigger fish. The Raiders and Seahawks have both been mentioned as teams with interest. At 6-foot-2, 210 with reported 4.3 speed, this is the kind of player Al Davis covets in his back end.

Prediction: Raiders on a four-year, $32 million contract.

10. Outside Linebacker Matt Roth

The 3-4 outside linebacker market is plodding along. Roth, Manny Lawson, and Mathias Kiwanuka all remain unsigned and have been sparingly connected to teams. Perhaps Roth is the domino that must fall in order for this position to generate more buzz. A terrific edge setter with underrated pass-rushing skills, Roth could be New England's next Mike Vrabel.

Prediction: Patriots on a five-year, $27 million contract.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Fallout: DeAngelo stays
The dominoes are falling. Wednesday's free agency sweepstakes brought much stronger punches than Tuesday's moves as we saw major fantasy pieces change uniforms. More than 30 stories were worthy of Rotoworld headlines, including Panthers GM Marty Hurney pulling off another forehead-slapper:

* Note: All deals will not be official until Friday night

DEANGELO WILLIAMS RE-SIGNS WITH PANTHERS
DeAngelo Williams is 28 years old and has missed 13 games over the last two seasons due to injury. The Panthers have beastly Jonathan Stewart raring to go as a potential feature back, but have gaping holes all over the rest of the field. So what does Hurney do? How about hand Williams five-year, $43 million contract with $21 million guaranteed. Of course.

The fantasy impact is clear. Stewart, who would have been a borderline first-round pick without Williams, has his upside capped once again. In the six games that the two played together last season, Williams averaged 14.5 carries per game while Stewart saw just 8.5 totes. While that split should be closer this year, I will be reaching higher.

Meanwhile, Knowshon Moreno dodged a bullet. The Broncos will seek a cheaper complement, with Jason Snelling and Willis McGahee reportedly possibilities. Although Moreno's value has taken a hit over the last month, he's very relevant.

MATT HASSELBECK SIGNS WITH TITANS
This is big news for the entire Titans offense. Even though Hasselbeck is no longer anything more than average at age 35, he's a much better bet to move the ball than Jake Locker was. The box will be more open for Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt will benefit from the more accurate veteran and Jared Cook's arrow continues to point straight up. Johnson is certainly a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in all fantasy formats.

CHIEFS SNAG STEVE BREASTON FROM CARDINALS
The Chiefs are building quite the offense around Matt Cassel. They used their first-round pick on WR Jonathan Baldwin and now have Steve Breaston as a slot candidate. And as long as Breaston is healthy, we suspect he'll line up ahead of Baldwin in most two-wide sets. Breaston already knows Todd Haley's offense from their time together in Arizona and knee woes can be blamed for his late-season decline last year. We'll have to see how Breaston's ADP reacts to the scenery change before truly evaluating his value.

The addition of Breaston shouldn't hurt Dwayne Bowe too much, but it's just another reason to let someone overdraft last year's breakout stud. As I mentioned in the Draft Guide, Bowe's catch/TD rate is unsustainable.

As for Arizona, they didn't seem too worried about losing Breaston at all. Perhaps that's because they know something about Andre Roberts that the rest of the world doesn't. They've been talking up the 2010 third-round pick and he's already been projected as the starter opposite Larry Fitzgerald. With Kevin Kolb en route, Roberts qualifies as a sleeper. Oft-injured Early Doucet is also on the radar.

SIDNEY RICE FOLLOWS TARVARIS JACKSON TO SEATTLE
The Seahawks weren't willing to pay for a quarterback, but they forked over $41 million to land an elite receiver in Rice. They didn't even wait to bring him in for a Friday physical despite Rice's hip issues. It makes for a nightmare situation for Rice's fantasy prospects. We saw what Jackson could do in Minnesota and it wasn't pretty. Rice's arrow is way down.

SANTONIO HOLMES RE-SIGNS WITH JETS
Holmes' talent and impact on the game is undeniable. The question is if the Jets' run-first offense makes him a reliable fantasy player. The answer is unclear, but now that he's expected to be playing without Braylon Edwards, his targets figure to rise. The Jets will also likely loosen the leash on Mark Sanchez. At Holmes' current average draft position (ADP) of 53.6, there's upside.

QUICK SLANTS
Donte' Stallworth agreed to a one-year deal with the Redskins, where his quarterback will likely be John Beck. Yawn. ... Kyle Orton is tentatively expected to be traded to the Dolphins any minute now. Give Brandon Marshall a little boost. ... The Kevin Kolb trade to Arizona is going down. All Cardinals get a big bump, especially Larry Fitzgerald. ... The Saints re-signed slot man Lance Moore to a five-year deal. He's more important to the Saints than fantasy teams. ... Donovan McNabb was traded to the Vikings. The sad part is I'm not sure he's an upgrade on Christian Ponder. Still, McNabb's strong arm should keep defenses somewhat honest when they try to shut down Adrian Peterson.

STOCK WATCH
Three guys not mentioned above that have seen a bump in value over the last two days:

1. Dez Bryant: Roy Williams wasn't going to beat out Bryant for a starting gig, but it would have been a little fuzzy. Now that Williams is out, the mega-talented Bryant sees the No. 2 WR gig clearly and has a healthy Tony Romo coming back.

2. Ray Rice: In his first three seasons in the league, Rice has scored just 14 touchdowns in 45 games. That was largely due to the vulture presence of Willis McGahee. The Ravens still may add talent to the running back position, but Rice's goal-line opportunities figure to rise either way.

3. Tim Tebow: Despite a regime change, the Broncos are putting their eggs in Tebow's basket by moving on from Kyle Orton. And as I mentioned in the Draft Guide's Bold Predictions, Tebow has the tools to be a fantasy monster. In three starts last season, Tebow racked up 10.3 carries per game and three rushing touchdowns. The passing stats will be a bonus.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Kevin Kolb 'Fitz' the bill in Phoenix

Archive 
Larry Fitzgerald can pretend last year was just a bad dream.

Realizing the massive mistake they made in 2010, the Cardinals have shored up their starting quarterback position, trading Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2012 second-round draft pick to the Eagles in exchange for Kevin Kolb.

There was no way Arizona was going to let John Skelton or Max Hall be its Week 1 starter, and Derek Anderson has long been released. So Kolb steps into the breach, finally gaining the unquestioned starting job we all thought he had last season in Philly, before a Week 1 injury gave Michael Vick the opportunity he needed to win the gig. Suffice to say there's no Vick on the Cardinals' roster. Kolb will be working without a net.

How good is he? Opinions are mixed. Some remember his strong fill-in work a couple seasons ago, when Donovan McNabb was injured. They see an accurate thrower with a quick release, a guy who is a natural for today's West Coast offense-influenced NFL game plans. Others (including myself) are more circumspect. We see Kolb get flustered in the pocket, often failing to make secondary and tertiary reads when he feels pressure. At the moment, with his current skill set, I view Kolb as almost exactly a league-average QB, and he turns only 27 in August, so he can get better. His strengths -- accuracy and intelligence -- are hard to teach. But I think it's a mistake to assume everything is instantly hunky-dory for the Cardinals under center. Kolb will struggle some. He'll have good days and bad, and that makes him a fantasy backup, not a starter, for 2011.

<CITE>Bruce Kluckhohn/US Presswire</CITE>Larry Fitzgerald averaged 1,310 yards and 12.5 touchdowns in the three seasons prior to last year's debacle.

This move's biggest favorable impact is most certainly on Fitzgerald. Even with a battalion of awful and/or inexperienced signal-callers pumping him the ball every week last season, Fitz managed his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season, but it was a huge struggle, and his six touchdowns tied a career low. Expect Fitzgerald to leap back into double-digit-TD territory. When I ranked him this spring, I baked in the assumption that Arizona would provide a major upgrade at QB, and this qualifies as that. Accordingly, I'm only bumping Fitz one spot, to No. 6 in my personal receiver ranks, one place ahead of Mike Wallace.

As for what's left behind in Philly, the Eagles almost certainly have a plan for the backup spot behind Vick. All spring and summer we've read stories about how much Andy Reid likes Mike Kafka (On The Shore), but he's taken exactly zero regular-season snaps. Given Vick's proclivity for taking big hits and missing games, the team has to think bigger when it comes to a backup. Of course, that veteran to be named will only be fantasy relevant if and when Vick gets hurt.

Finally, there's DRC coming to the Eagles' secondary. Last year, there was one weakness in the Philly defense so glaring you needed only a paper towel tube to look at it: The team had no good corners to play opposite Asante Samuel. Rodgers-Cromartie has great physical ability but made too many mental mistakes for Arizona last season and became known by Cardinals coaches as a guy who coasted and didn't study or practice hard. Presumably, exposure to Samuel will help, but you can expect that DRC will see a heck of a lot of passes thrown his way in '11, because he's got much more to prove than Samuel does. Still, this is a huge net positive for the Philly D/ST and even gives DRC some interesting IDP-league value. He's a super-talented corner who'll see a bunch of targets. That smells like interceptions potential to me.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Matt Hasselbeck makes Titans better

By Eric Karabell

I can't proclaim that quarterback play for the Tennessee Titans during the 2010 season was played at a particularly high level, even in the final few weeks when it might have appeared that way, and the pending addition of former Seattle Seahawks veteran Matt Hasselbeck won't solve all ills.

However, I do like the offense better now. Perhaps that's more an indictment of the Vince Young/Kerry Collins/Rusty Smith mess than expecting big things from Hasselbeck, but then again, this isn't an offense that covets Peyton Manning, either. It's all about running back Chris Johnson, and that's not going to change anytime soon.

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The fact is that having a quarterback threat -- and when upright, Hasselbeck can be a threat -- can be good for everyone, from the running back to fantasy owners. While Hasselbeck finished 26th among quarterbacks in standard league scoring last season, for the first 12 weeks of the season he was certainly more of a factor: He reached double digits in fantasy points in eight of 10 starts until producing a grand total of 16 fantasy points the final five weeks. In January, Hasselbeck played well in a playoff win over the New Orleans Saints and a competitive loss at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears, totaling seven touchdown passes and one interception.

While I don't doubt that he's healthy today and ready for action, it's difficult to project a full 16-game campaign for Hasselbeck, now 35 and a veteran of 12 seasons. However, Hasselbeck does have a few things going for him that he didn't in Seattle: Opposing defenses will be paying a lot more attention to Johnson than the team's passing game. In Seattle, the offensive line was putrid, and running back Marshawn Lynch was generally disappointing until breaking off one memorable playoff jaunt. The Seahawks also didn't feature much at wide receiver; only Mike Williams caught more than 36 passes.

In fact, I'd venture to say that Hasselbeck has never had a wide receiver threat like Kenny Britt at his disposal (Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson, Bobby Engram have been the best in his days). Britt clearly has some issues, most of them off the field, but he's extremely talented, ranking fourth in the league in yards-at-the-catch average and capable of owning the red zone seemingly at will. The Titans don't feature a dominating offensive line, but it's better than Seattle's, and the weapons around Hasselbeck are certainly an upgrade. If only he could get that NFC West schedule back!

I'm not going to call Hasselbeck a top-20 fantasy quarterback, or close to it. That would be a bit wild. For perspective, rounding out our top 20 quarterbacks are young pups with upside like Matthew Stafford, Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez. Those are fantasy backups at this point. The Titans want Hasselbeck to mentor draft pick Jake Locker and manage football games, avoiding the interceptions that plagued him in recent seasons in Seattle. I think Hasselbeck can do that, but I don't expect 300-passing games. I have Johnson ranked third among all options for fantasy drafts, and I'm not adjusting that. Britt's volatility scares me some, which is why he's not a top-20 wide receiver in drafts, but certainly he's in better hands, so to speak, with a veteran passer than a raw rookie.

Hasselbeck should be under consideration for backup duty for those in 12- or 14-team leagues or multi-quarterback formats. As of this writing, a lot can still change -- at ESPN Fantasy, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Vince Young and Carson Palmer are currently ranked ahead of Hasselbeck as a Titan, and it's possible that none of them will get to start -- but I'm thinking Hasselbeck will settle in around the 25-27 range at the position for me. He's got a starting job. He's got weapons. Don't rely on him, but don't be surprised if he's an occasional helper.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Donovan McNabb good for Adrian Peterson

Eric Karabell

The Minnesota Vikings' acquisition of Donovan McNabb is similar to how the Tennessee Titans improved their offense by picking up Matt Hasselbeck (blog entry here). In terms of investing fantasy attention in McNabb or Hasselbeck, I don't think there's too much there to excite us, but it's the respective offenses for these teams that should improve merely due to the upgrades.
<OFFER>Like the Titans with Chris Johnson, the Vikings are going to be led by Adrian Peterson, the awesome running back that myself and ESPN Fantasy regard as fantasy's top draft pick this season. Peterson has produced no fewer than 1,600 yards from scrimmage in each of his four NFL seasons, and he's reached double digits in touchdowns every season as well. He's safe, and other than one mercurial season when Brett Favre played like a stud, the team has been led by sketchy quarterback play during Peterson's time as a Viking: Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Kelly Holcomb, Joe Webb and a bad Favre (2010). Yet Peterson has always produced. He will again.

McNabb is an upgrade on Jackson, I believe, and that should help Peterson and the team's wide receiving weapons, whomever they may be (Sidney Rice, for example, would look really good back with the Vikings now). McNabb can still make plays, and while his accuracy and decision-making aren't strengths, he was a productive player in his final seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles. Certainly some of the blame for McNabb's poor 2010 season -- he had more interceptions than touchdowns -- needs to be directed at the team around him, as the Washington Redskins surrounded him with a leaky offensive line, an unproven running game and, let's face it, differing messages in terms of trusting him as a starter.
Nevertheless, McNabb made Santana Moss very relevant, tight end Chris Cooley bounced back well, and youngster Anthony Armstrong averaged nearly 20 yards per reception. I'm not going to credit backup Rex Grossman for these things. McNabb delivered a 21-point fantasy game in Week 2 against the Houston Texas (426 passing yards, TD pass) and three other games with 17 fantasy points. He threw a touchdown pass in 12 consecutive starts. Hey, it could have been far worse. There were times when fantasy owners loved McNabb. There were times they did not.
Now McNabb gets a new start with the Vikings, and I think it's reasonable that he can reach 20 touchdown passes and lower his interception rate, perhaps even throw for 4,000 yards. Even in 2010, McNabb threw for 3,377 yards, and the team benched him for the final three games. He likely would have reached 4,000 passing yards. In other words, while he's not exactly a fantasy sleeper, he should be relevant.
Like the Titans, the Vikings have a rookie passer in Christian Ponder who needs seasoning, and perhaps McNabb isn't the perfect choice to act as teacher, but the Vikings aren't bringing in McNabb for 2013, either. He might get only one season. Will he be like Favre, circa amazing 2009? I don't see that happening, but I've got McNabb barely on the outside of my quarterback top 20, not quite as good as younger, upside-laden choices like Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, but ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy and Hasselbeck. In deeper leagues you'll have to look his way, and if he stays healthy, he should be better than he was in 2010.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Santonio Holmes' upside limited with Jets

Eric Karabell

New York Jets wide receiver Santonio Holmes has elected to remain with the club, agreeing to a lucrative five-year contract, and although fantasy owners could have envisioned considerable stats befitting one of the top 10 options at his position had he chosen a pass-happy offense, he didn't. He's on the Jets. They run a lot. Their quarterback hands off a lot. Deal with it.
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Still, Holmes is an electrifying talent worthy of ownership in any fantasy format, and he's likely to be a No. 2 wide receiver option for many fantasy teams. Looking at his 2010 statistics doesn't tell the whole story, as he finished with 102 standard scoring points, 35th among wide receivers. Holmes missed the first four games while serving a suspension -- we all hope for the best off the field -- but afterward he was productive. Holmes reached double digits in fantasy points from Weeks 9 through 12, highlighted by a 126-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Houston Texans, and scored touchdowns in each of the final two games.
Still, I can't place Holmes among my top 20 wide receivers for upcoming drafts, despite the talent and upside. After all, Holmes was not a top-20 wide receiver for the 12 games he played (10 starts) last season, or close to it. The Jets offense and the erratic tendencies of quarterback Mark Sanchez -- does restrict the potential here, but this remains a wide receiver worthy of attention in the fifth or sixth round. ESPN Fantasy ranks him 18th among wide receivers, just a tad generous for my liking, but I see the point. I'd still choose Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Sidney Rice and Kenny Britt first, because ultimately it's about the stats.
This is one of those spots where real football and the fantasy version don't quite jibe. Holmes is a better player now than when he was with the Pittsburgh Steelers, more focused and with fewer drops, and it's difficult to question his speed and breakaway ability. But it's worth mentioning again: It's certainly possible Holmes can reach 75 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and flirt with double-digit touchdowns as a Jet, but I wouldn't call any of it likely. Whether former teammate Braylon Edwards sticks around or not is somewhat irrelevant to Holmes' plight statistically, because the Jets have the funds to replace him (Randy Moss? Yikes) and keep Holmes away from too many double teams. Ultimately, fantasy owners should remember this is a game about statistics, and Holmes should deliver them, but the decision he made to return to the Jets may restrict his production.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Carolina RB committee still in effect

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

It's perhaps the worst fantasy football news of the summer. DeAngelo Williams is still a Carolina Panther.

D-Willy agreed to sign a five-year deal with a whopping $21 million guaranteed, a massive contract that indicates the team probably is committed to him as its lead rusher. Of course, Jonathan Stewart is also still around, with two seasons remaining on his rookie contract. And we all know how frustrating that dynamic duo has been from a fantasy perspective over the past three seasons.
<INLINE1>Ironically, for all the concerns that dogged him coming out of the University of Oregon, Stew Beef's health has been much better than D-Willy's over the past two years. Williams has missed 13 games the past two seasons, while Stewart (who admittedly has been less than full speed in some games because of lingering foot issues) has missed only two contests in his three-year career. But the fact remains: Neither of these rushers belongs on a list of the safest health bets in the NFL.

And that's where the randomness factor comes in. You see, whichever guy gets hurt, the other leaps to the fantasy forefront. As full-fledged starting backs, there's little doubt Williams and Stewart would border on being top-10 fantasy RBs. New Carolina coach Ron Rivera figures to bring that prototypical "smashmouth" mindset, and considering Cam Newton might be starting from Week 1, the running game is going to be a significant portion of the team's offensive attack. Add in an offensive line that should get right tackle Jeff Otah back to full health (and which has produced huge fantasy seasons for both Williams and Stewart in the recent past), and you understand the upside. But if this is just one more split job, well, prepare yourself for week-to-week aggravation.

Last season, in the six games before Williams got hurt, the workload broke down like this:

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Weeks 1-6, 2010

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Running back </TH><TH>Rush </TH><TH>RuYd </TH><TH>RuTD </TH><TH>Rec </TH><TH>ReYd </TH><TH>ReTD </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Williams </TD><TD>87 </TD><TD>361 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>61 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Stewart </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>148 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>4 </TD><TD>77 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

That's nearly a two-thirds/one-third split in D-Willy's favor, and that's why I'd rate Williams above Stewart. However, remember that Stewart had 10 TDs apiece in both '08 and '09 (and Williams dropped from 18 in '08 to seven in '09), and you can understand why Stewart has his proponents.

You have to believe that Williams' injured foot from last year checked out, considering the Panthers just spent so much money on him. But do you feel confident he won't get hurt again? For that matter, do you believe Stewart's toe issues are fully a thing of the past? Yeah, me neither. You're playing Russian roulette to draft either of these guys high (to say nothing of the death blow this move serves to Mike Goodson's value). For the moment, I put Williams' value somewhere in the middle of the pack of No. 2 fantasy rushers and Stewart somewhere in the 20 to 30 range. Obviously, though, if either one ducks out because of injury, the other's value skyrockets.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Breaston's value changes little with Chiefs

By Eric Karabell

New Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Steve Breaston knows what it's like playing alongside a stud wide receiver. For years, he played second fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald with the Arizona Cardinals. Now Breaston joins up with uber-talented Dwayne Bowe, who is also capable of controlling football games whenever he seems to want to. One could surmise that Breaston's value doesn't really alter much, and while I'd like to be more positive, and certainly Breaston should enjoy better quarterback play than in 2010, I'm not sure Kansas City is such a perfect fit for him statistically.

We've seen in the past how Breaston has been able to use his quickness and above-average speed as a downfield threat, though playing with the worst quarterback situation in the league last season, he didn't get many chances. The Chiefs feature Matt Cassel slingin' the football, surely an upgrade, but the former Patriot was able to accrue a healthy portion of his misleading statistics while taking advantage of a cake schedule, and he's not exactly an ace in the vertical passing game. Not that the Chiefs will face top teams every week in 2011, but it's not going to be so easy for Cassel, Bowe and the most utilized running game in the league this time around.
Frankly, I think Breaston's numbers would have looked about the same in Arizona, if not better, if he stayed and if the Cardinals do in fact acquire quarterback Kevin Kolb. I mean, they might have a decent running game with rookie Ryan Williams pushing Beanie Wells to the side, but it's a bit premature to know. The Chiefs run a lot and they run well. How can a No. 2 wide receiver thrive?
<OFFER>In general, the Breaston signing is a good thing for the Chiefs' offense, though, because Bowe saw constant double-teams last season, and I don't think rookie Jonathan Baldwin or sophomore Dexter McCluster would draw too much attention as the No. 2. While Cassel needs work stretching the field, Breaston and Baldwin should help. Whether that will mean much statistically is another thing. As good as Bowe was last season, when he finished second among all wide receivers in standard fantasy scoring, he does tend to take plays/games off, reaching double digits in fantasy scoring in only eight games. Some of this was due to the schedule and Cassel's erratic ways, but the point is that it opens up the opportunity for Breaston to have big games. He certainly won't be seeing double-teams. I just don't know if that's enough to make him one of the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy. He's in the 40-45 range for me.
Ultimately, the Chiefs are still going to lean heavily on a quality running game led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Last season, the Chiefs ran more than half the time, leading the league in attempts, yards, attention. When the team did throw, it was pretty much Cassel to Bowe, with rookie tight end Tony Moeaki and Charles the only other players to catch more than 22 passes. Breaston should catch at least 50 passes, and I can see him reaching 800 yards, perhaps four or five scores. Those numbers don't quite match his breakout 2008 season when Kurt Warner was king, but they should get him drafted in fantasy leagues and the occasional spot start for bye weeks or when injuries crop up. Just don't expect big things.
As for the Cardinals, don't worry, Fitzgerald and Kolb will be fine (should the deal go down), and whether it's Early Doucet, Andre Roberts or a current free agent still to be acquired, Kolb will have options to throw to. Frankly, Roberts is someone I'm inclined to call a sleeper if he's given the opportunity, and it wouldn't be a shock if he looked quite similar to Breaston, statistically. Now consider the difference in what round they'll be drafted.

HacheMan · Jul 28, 2011

Rice's pain will be Harvin's gain

Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

The Seahawks continue to piece together a weird, patchwork offense. They drafted polarizing right tackle James Carpenter in the first round of April's draft, and figure to throw him right into the starting lineup, along with right guard and fellow rookie John Moffitt. They signed former No. 2 overall pick Robert Gallery to a free-agent deal and will plug him in at left guard. They let Matt Hasselbeck go and apparently replaced him at quarterback with Tarvaris Jackson, fresh off a massively disappointing five seasons with the Vikings. And to cap it off, they spent $18 million guaranteed on wide receiver Sidney Rice.

Rice, of course, came out of nowhere to become Brett Favre's binky in Minnesota two seasons ago, racking up 83 grabs, 1,312 yards and eight TDs as a terrific all-around receiving threat. Unfortunately, he missed much of '10 with a hip injury, and thus was as responsible as anyone for the Vikings' crash-and-burn season. This is a guy who turns 25 in September, runs a 4.5-second 40 at 6-foot-4 and has shown a propensity to make big plays in the recent past. He'd be a No. 1 NFL wideout no matter where he landed.

But frankly, he couldn't have landed in a worse place for his fantasy value. I have absolutely no faith in Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst as potential starting QBs in Seattle. Yes, Jackson (the favorite to start) is familiar with Darrell Bevell's offensive system, considering Bevell was Jackson's only offensive coordinator in Minny. But what do the Hawks see that the rest of us are missing? This kid has terrible footwork and accuracy problems, and shows minimal instinct for standing in the pocket or placing the ball where it needs to go. He's a really good athlete and he can occasionally make a throw that gives you goose bumps, but he'll make more than enough mistakes to kill you. So although Rice got his money, I'd actually like him more if he'd stayed in with the Vikings to catch passes from Donovan McNabb alongside Percy Harvin. He's still in my top 30 wideouts, but barely.

Big Mike Williams also suffers here. No, he was never a wise man's idea of a No. 1 wideout, because he doesn't have good speed or separation, but he was what passed for a top receiver last year in Seattle. With Rice aboard, BMW becomes an obvious possession receiver, meaning his targets are going to come down significantly from last year's 110. I do think he's probably due for more TDs (he had only two in '10) because he's such a large target and can box out effectively in the end zone. But in my personal ranks, I lowered him from 38 to the mid-40s among wide receivers based on this transaction.

In Minnesota, Percy Harvin owners are smiling. Although I don't believe the Vikings are done building their receiving corps, I have to believe Harvin is now in clear position to lead the team in targets. True, he's not a prototypical No. 1 receiver. In his two NFL seasons, Harvin has been most comfortable out of the slot; part of the reason he's been such a yards-after-catch beast (his 6.5 average last year put him fifth among all NFL WRs) is that he tends to be a low-risk outlet. But hey, McNabb showed last year that he's comfortable with that kind of arrangement, as he fed Santana Moss pass after pass out of the slot. Add in the fact that the ultra-quick Harvin gets backfield carries and creative red-zone looks, and I think Rice's departure is a net gain for his fantasy value. He's not quite a top-20 WR for me, but I'd probably put him in that 21 to 25 range at the moment.

As for what else is left in Minnesota? Bernard Berrian and newly signed Devin Aromashodu do nothing for me, but if the Vikings fail to acquire anyone else, those two underachievers would duel for the team's No. 2 job. I don't think that will happen. Expect the Vikes to look hard at Braylon Edwards, James Jones and/or Malcom Floyd in the next few days, in the search for a more reliable field-stretcher to keep defenses honest on Harvin.

HacheMan · Jul 29, 2011

Fallout: Ocho is a Patriot
This week is different than any the NFL has ever seen, or likely will ever see again. It's not just that months of free agency are getting crammed into a tiny window. It's that all the trades teams have had bottled up all summer are going down too. Rookie signings have to be done. Undrafted free agents need to find a home. And, of course, training camps are opening simultaneously. That means we're finding out about injuries we only had hazy details on earlier.

We're three days into this beast and still feeling strong. The Rotoworld News Page isn't going to slow down (ever?) and the Draft Guide is up and running.

Let's quickly dive into the fantasy impact of Thursday's big stories:

1. PATRIOTS TRADE FOR CHAD OCHOCINCO
There's no doubt that Chad Ochocinco is a clown off the field. But on it, he still projects as a force at age 33. If he didn't, Bill Belichick wouldn't be taking a chance here. Ocho immediately becomes the No. 1 target for Tom Brady on all intermediate routes while Wes Welker pounds the underneath patterns. Deion Branch slides off the fantasy radar.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are going to roll just how we thought they would. Rookie A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson are locked in as the starters, with Jordan Shipley working the slot. If their quarterback wasn't the two-headed monster of Bruce Gradkowski and Andy Dalton, maybe we could get excited.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns from the Rotoworld Staff, projections, rankings, target reports and much more, get the 2011 Draft Guide!

2. PANTHERS TRADE FOR GREG OLSEN
As if the tight end position needed to get any deeper. Olsen goes from one of the worst situations in the league for a pass-catching tight end to one of the best. Panthers offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski is a former tight end that is notorious for getting production out of the position. He worked with Antonio Gates in San Diego and we all saw how that has turned out.

Head coach Ron Rivera is also on the record saying he wants to develop his tight ends to be a big part of the passing game, which makes perfect sense when your quarterback is a rookie. Olsen will quickly kick Jeremy Shockey to the curb, become the No. 2 option for Cam Newton and be a viable TE1.

3. DOLPHINS TRADE FOR REGGIE BUSH
The Dolphins finally decided that they drafted Daniel Thomas for a reason and blowing a wad of cash on Ahmad Bradshaw wasn't worth it. So they turned to Bush as a versatile complement to the rookie. Bush is expecting around 15 touches per game in Miami, but make no mistake here: Thomas is the feature back and will push for 250 carries. Bush's name will still carry more weight than his game, even in PPR circles.

4. CARDINALS TRADE FOR KEVIN KOLB
The deal that had been talked about all lockout long finally went down just as expected. The biggest winner is Larry Fitzgerald, who is now a top-5 fantasy receiver with ease. Personally, I would rank him third behind Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson.

As for Kolb, he'll find that putting up numbers outside of the Eagles' explosive offense is harder than it seems. While he was throwing to a multitude of weapons in Philly, he only has Fitzgerald now. Consider Kolb a QB2.

5. VINCE YOUNG RELEASED BY THE TITANS
We knew this was coming, but the real news here is that he is reportedly on the verge of a deal with the Eagles to be Michael Vick's backup. From a fantasy perspective, this makes Vick an even safer pick. Vick owners can handcuff Young with their final pick and then if Vick gets hurt, we still have a QB1 in Young. Yes, with VY's skills, legs and weapons, he'd be a QB1 anytime he starts in Philly.

QUICK SLANTS
Michael Crabtree is expected to be out at least a month due to a foot injury. He's basically undraftable. ... Steve Smith changed his tune Thursday, saying he wants to be a Panther for life. His upside is capped by rookie quarterback Cam Newton. ... Darren Sproles signed on with the Saints to replace Reggie Bush. He'll be the passing-down back, leaving Pierre Thomas without a role. ... Chris Ivory (foot) is still two weeks away from practicing. Mark Ingram is the early-down man here. ... The Packers paid Ryan Grant his bonus, meaning he's going to be on the team and will likely be the starter. James Starks is headed for a complementary role.

HacheMan · Jul 29, 2011

Don't expect Ochocinco to be Moss

Veteran wide receiver has value with Patriots but isn't a fantasy superstar anymore

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.comc

Things just got much chattier in Massachusetts. The New England Patriots have acquired that mouthy entrepreneur himself, Chad Ochocinco, from the Cincinnati Bengals, ESPN's John Clayton reports. Ochocinco accepted a restructured three-year contract from the Patriots to get the deal done. Meanwhile, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Bengals will receive late-round draft picks in 2012 and 2013 for Ochocinco.

It's no secret Bill Belichick has been a big fan of EightFive for years, right down to an exhibition game in '09, when "Esteban" Ochocinco booted an extra point and Belichick gushed. Now the Pats take another low-risk look at a veteran who talked his way out of a prior NFL home. Can it work? Will Ochocinco kindle memories of Randy Moss in '07?

I don't think so. First of all, The Ocho might need a new number. Tight end Aaron Hernandez already owns 85. (Could another name change be in the offing? Or will Ocho simply buy Hernandez a bunch more tattoos?) More importantly, the Ochocinco I watched on game film from Cincinnati last year looked like he was shying away from contact. Great wheels were never his game, even when he was in his prime, so he needs physical route running and spectacular hands to be effective. I saw alligator arms galore in '10 and too many flamboyant displays of on-field frustration.

That's not to say this is a bad acquisition by New England. It took a look at Torry Holt last year and decided Holt had nothing left. Now the Patriots will try out Ocho, after a small investment. If he's sharp, he gets into the mix with Wes Welker and Deion Branch (in particular serving as injury insurance for Branch, whose knees aren't likely to make it through a full season), and lets kids such as Brandon Tate and Taylor Price continue to develop. If he's not, he's gone. But make no mistake: Ocho is not a Moss-like deep threat. He's not going to produce a double-digit TD season. And he's not going to lead the team in catches, targets or receiving yards. He's a complementary piece who almost certainly won't influence the values of Welker or the two tight ends (Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski). Branch could be due for a slight value dip. But Ocho himself is still only borderline ownable in most leagues.

As for what's left behind in Cincinnati, we're looking at an entirely new aerial attack. Newly acquired Bruce Gradkowski is probably the Week 1 starter with rookie Andy Dalton waiting in the wings; Carson Palmer is evidently retired. Terrell Owens is out for a good long while with a torn knee ligament, and Ochocinco is a Patriot. That leaves behind rookie A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley, and some combination of Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell. If that doesn't sound like a well-oiled offensive machine to you, well, it probably isn't. Jay Gruden's attack will be conservative. This is a caretaker year, designed to get experience for the many young players on this team. Nobody in this Bengals pass offense is going to be a fantasy starter this year.

HacheMan · Jul 29, 2011

RBBC in the Big Easy

Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

For about 24 hours, we thought we knew what was what in the Big Easy. But then Sean Payton had to go on being Sean Payton, and now everything is a mess again.

When Reggie Bush was traded to the Dolphins, it seemed pretty clear in New Orleans: Pierre Thomas and rookie Mark Ingram would split lead-back duties, and Chris Ivory would get his injured foot well and possibly contribute as the season progressed. But then, late Thursday night, the Saints signed Chargers castoff Darren Sproles to fill the role Bush left behind. Great. We're right back where we started.

As I mentioned when discussing the Bush deal, the Saints haven't given any running back more than 230 total touches from scrimmage in any of the past four seasons, and only one guy -- Bush in '07 -- has gotten more than 186. That's just Payton's M.O. Expecting anything different here in '11 is almost certainly folly. Sure, we all like Ingram's potential: He's not a huge guy and he's not blazingly fast, but he's got great in-the-box quickness, vision and instincts, and, in a different situation, would be a true breakout candidate. Although the skills of Thomas and Sproles overlap some (both are good pass-catchers and are dangerous in space), Ingram is more of a potential bruiser, and as such is probably the team's best bet for short TDs. But face it: Payton never shied away from using Bush and/or Thomas in short-yardage situations. He loves funky, counterintuitive matchups. He loves to go around the edge when you expect him to go up the middle. He loves to run when you expect him to pass.

Nor do I buy it when people say Sproles is mostly a direct shot across Thomas' bow. Sure, there's lots of competition to be on the field on third downs now, as there was when Bush toiled in the Big Easy. But Thomas does a reasonable impression of a first- and second-down back at times, too. He's a really good all-around running back who simply doesn't have the durability to make it through a season as a No. 1. If his past is any indication, he's perfectly capable of converting, say, 170 touches into 1,000 total yards and 10 TDs. No, I don't think his TD total this year will be quite that high because Ingram will score some. But the notion that Payton won't play to Thomas' strengths seems ill-founded. If Sproles is Bush, there's no reason Thomas can't have the same kind of per-play impact he was having when Bush himself was actually around.

If this move speaks to one thing most conclusively, it's that Ivory's foot simply might not be close to ready for prime time. As you'll recall, he hurt a hamstring late last year, then tore up his foot by season's end and needed Lisfranc surgery. Early word out of Saints camp is that Ivory won't be ready for action for at least a couple of weeks, and that might simply be polite talk for, "This guy is injury-prone, and we're flat-out not counting on him." At this point, Ivory doesn't look draftable, but the other three Saints guys do. I expect Ingram and Thomas to have pretty similar value on a week-to-week basis, with Sproles chipping in occasionally and providing a bit more value in PPR leagues. But Sean Payton being Sean Payton, this isn't going to be the fantasy gold mine it has the potential to be.

HacheMan · Jul 29, 2011

Willis McGahee a handcuff and TD vulture

<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>espn.core.init.tools('6816269','http://insider.espn.go.com/sports/fantasy/blog?name=karabell_eric_football%26id=6816269');</SCRIPT>By Eric Karabell

Word from the land of the Denver Broncos this offseason had the organization wanting to upgrade its running back situation, as Knowshon Moreno, as many fantasy owners are well aware of, has been a relative disappointment. We heard about DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw and perhaps even Ronnie Brown as options. So excuse me if I can't muster up much excitement over veteran Willis McGahee being given a three-year deal. Frankly, I think this could be implied as good news for Moreno; certainly it could have been worse for him in a pure platoon situation, like the one new coach John Fox seemed so fond of in Carolina, or by flat-out being the backup.<OFFER> The fact is that Moreno, as talented as he is and should look statistically, has a few obstacles in becoming a top-10 -- and perhaps even remaining a top-20 -- fantasy running back. One is his coach, who might not be any more kind to Moreno in terms of touches than former coach Josh McDaniels was. Two, there's the goal-line angle. McGahee doesn't figure to get much work between the 20-yard lines, but he has done some fine work in recent seasons close to the end zone. He wasn't as much of a factor in hurting Ray Rice's value last season as most people think, but check out 2009. I'd bet he and speedy quarterback Tim Tebow get touchdown chances, perhaps more of them than Moreno. Finally, there's Moreno's ability to stay healthy. He hasn't missed many games, but he has seemed limited in more than a few of them.
Add it all up and I'd say Moreno got a bit of a break that a soon-to-be 30-year-old running back was the one brought in to help him out. Of course, that doesn't really make me like him more. Moreno has a lot to prove after averaging just four yards per carry through two seasons, falling short of a seemingly reachable 1,000 rushing yards each time. Moreno is going to be hard-pressed to put up big touchdown numbers with McGahee on board and Tebow running around. I could see Moreno being a usable No. 2 running back, and I'm not fully giving up on him realizing his upside … but be careful here unless it's the fourth round.

As for McGahee, it wouldn't be a stunner if he reached double digits again in touchdowns, but there is ample evidence that 30-year-old running backs just don't thrive. Argue that McGahee hasn't been used much in recent seasons -- 209 rushing attempts the past two seasons -- and I'll remind you there's a reason why that happened, and it wasn't merely because Ray Rice is good. This is a backup running back. Don't draft him among the top 40 running backs, unless it's a touchdown-heavy league, and even then, make sure you won't need him much.
However, just by the sheer fact he's clearly the No. 2 running back on a team with a running back perhaps lucky to still be a No. 1, McGahee deserves attention along with others that could, in theory, emerge as fantasy factors. It might be more of an indictment of the No. 1 than confidence in the old No. 2, mind you, but that's fine for these purposes. Thomas Jones need not apply, since Jamaal Charles is awesome. We're looking for shaky No.-1 types here.
In Carolina, certainly I'm skeptical DeAngelo Williams can remain upright for all 16 games. Then again, you'll need to draft Jonathan Stewart well before McGahee territory. In Arizona, I think rookie Ryan Williams will get the nod as starter, but Beanie Wells hasn't shown much. Mike Tolbert could be used as a McGahee-type in San Diego, or more if Ryan Mathews disappoints again. Buffalo Bills sophomore C.J. Spiller could matter if Fred Jackson stumbles. And we still don't know for sure how things are going to work out in Green Bay, where James Starks could be the starter or the backup. As of this writing, no official signings have even taken place! Be on alert for more McGahee-type situations, and we'll be here to chronicle things for you.

HacheMan · Jul 31, 2011

How will recent moves help players

Burress, Olsen have value in new homes; be wary of new Bears Williams, Barber

Burress

• Plaxico Burress to the New York Jets. Nobody really knows how much the 34-year-old Burress has left in the tank, but there's no reason to suspect he's completely cooked. For that reason, I think there's a decent chance Plax becomes the outside receiver who starts opposite Santonio Holmes, while Jerricho Cotchery stays in a No. 3 WR role. Of course, the Jets have one of the league's run-heaviest offensive mixes, and Mark Sanchez still has accuracy problems that tend to cap the value of his wideouts. Holmes will be fed first in this passing game; the best Burress will be is second. But he's always been a good red-zone threat and there should be enough week-to-week targets available for Plax to make him draftable in some leagues. In last year's final 12 regular-season games (after Holmes had returned from his suspension), Braylon Edwards averaged just fewer than seven targets per game. That's not a scintillating number, but it's not horrible.

Olsen

• Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers. Free at last! Martz simply was never going to use the tight end as a receiver much in Chicago, so Olsen's talents were going to waste. I think you can easily make the case that in terms of ability, Olsen is one of the 10 best receiving tight ends in the business, so his ascension to a system that seems ready to value his skills is good news. Of course, it's also been a long time since the Panthers have featured an elite fantasy tight end (the name Wesley Walls comes to mind), and the Week 1 starting QB may very well be rookie Cam Newton, so it's tough to say Olsen immediately becomes a fantasy starter in shallow leagues. But he's much more draftable than he was as a Bear. In other news, this transaction tells us all we need to know about how much Jeremy Shockey has left in the tank as a receiver. He's going to be a glorified offensive lineman in his first season in Carolina.

Barber

• Marion Barber to the Chicago Bears. Barber may only be 28, but his whirling-dervish running style has more than caught up with him. He faded badly in his final couple seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, and last year averaged 3.3 yards per carry as not one of his 113 totes went for more than 25 yards. He's good in pass protection and has always been a bull near the goal line, so Chicago does have a role for him. But it would be foolish, I think, to say that Matt Forte's fantasy owners should be concerned. Forte will continue to be The Man, while Barber will pitch in and could help a short-yardage rushing game that's struggled for years. Yes, it's possible Barber snatches away a few bunny TDs. But that doesn't make him a handcuff to Forte and it doesn't make him draftable; it makes him a nuisance. The guy who really needs to worry here is Chester Taylor. He's probably on the Bears' roster bubble now.

Williams

• Roy Williams to the Chicago Bears. The last good season Williams had was '06, and Mike Martz was his offensive coordinator. Perhaps that gives a flicker of hope that Williams might deliver on what once looked like an All-Pro type of career. But he'd have to change his stripes pretty massively for that to happen. His two-plus years in Dallas were marked by inattention to detail, mental errors, a loss of deep speed and QB chemistry concerns. The guy still only turns 30 in December, and it's not like he's coming to a team with an established excellent receiving corps. In theory, Williams could wind up Chicago's No. 1 wideout. Certainly his presence means Devin Hester basically goes back to being a return man, while Earl Bennett may wind up operating more out of the slot. Williams is a big guy who in theory can be a good end-zone target. But Johnny Knox is the dynamic player here, the guy who'll break big gains and rack up higher-value targets. If Williams beats out Bennett and lines up as the flanker, he's fairly ownable as a speculative pick. But I'm not expecting a ton.

Jenkins

• Michael Jenkins to the Minnesota Vikings. Really? This is how the Vikings will try and replace Sidney Rice? Yuck. Jenkins is a terrific downfield blocker, but averaged just 2.2 yards after the catch last season, 97th-best among NFL receivers. He just doesn't make plays. Heck, there's absolutely no guarantee that Jenkins will beat out Bernard Berrian for the spot opposite Percy Harvin, and the recently signed Devin Aromashodu also has an outside shot of getting in the mix. I have to believe there's still a chance the Vikes will sign a bigger-name free-agent WR (as of this writing, Malcom Floyd, James Jones and Braylon Edwards were all still available), in which case Jenkins' fantasy value will be absolutely nil. Yes, if Minnesota's roster stays as currently constituted, it's possible Jenkins catches a few touchdowns from Donovan McNabb. But I wouldn't dream of owning him in a 10-team league.

Sims-Walker

• Mike Sims-Walker to the St. Louis Rams. Oh, goodie, another wide receiver in St. Louis. Josh McDaniels is obviously collecting them. Let's run through the group: Danny Amendola, Danario Alexander, Donnie Avery, Brandon Gibson, Mardy Gilyard, Austin Pettis, Greg Salas, maybe Mark Clayton and now MSW. Amendola, Alexander, Pettis and Salas aren't going anywhere, though Pettis and Salas are rookies, so they don't need to contribute right away to justify their roster spots. That means Avery, Gibson, Gilyard and Sims-Walker (Clayton's surgically repaired knee apparently isn't ready for prime time yet) are competing for what? Two roster spots? The third-receiver gig? I mention all this by way of saying: Don't be fooled into thinking MSW has been brought to St. Louis as a presumptive starter. He got a one-year, short-money contract after a disastrous '10 season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Could he make the team and wind up Sam Bradford's top target? Sure. But could he get hurt yet again? Could he find himself buried on the depth chart? Could he get flat-out cut? Yup.

HacheMan · Aug 2, 2011

Ahmad Bradshaw not a top fantasy RB

Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

There's a lot to like about Ahmad Bradshaw. He's only 25 years old. He's coming off a breakout season during which he surprisingly won the Giants' starting tailback job from Brandon Jacobs in training camp and mostly held onto it all year, racking up 1,549 yards from scrimmage and eight TDs. And he plays for a team that (despite the fact that Eli Manning has thrown for 4,000 yards in back-to-back years) likes to pound the football.

But Bradshaw, who re-signed with the Giants Monday after shopping his wares around the NFL as a free agent, should be regarded as little more than a mid-level No. 2 fantasy RB. Why is that?

First off, there are the injuries. He's had multiple stress fractures in his feet, and this winter had surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. I guess you might say the dude is an old 25, or at least his lower legs are. Fantasy owners made it through 2010 with Bradshaw staying mostly healthy, but relying on that to happen again after he easily eclipsed his prior high-usage season may be playing with fire.

Next, there's the fumbling. Bradshaw was benched for parts of a couple games in November last year for dropping the football; he wound up with seven fumbles, which was second-most among all running backs last year, and he lost six of those, which was the most of any RB. We all know Tom Coughlin is an old-school type who likes to send messages to players he believes can do better. Bradshaw must hold onto the ball to guarantee a high workload again this season.

Finally, there's Jacobs himself. The big backup will return with the Giants in '11 and is favored to get his share of the short-yardage work again. Now, Bradshaw does sometimes stay in during TD-rich situations. He got 12 carries inside an opponent's 5 last season, converting five of those for scores. But Jacobs had 11 carries from that same short distance and also converted five, and frankly, if that big body of his is good for anything, it's good for shielding the smaller Bradshaw from the car crashes that come on an opponent's goal line. Plus, Jacobs probably has a better overall handle on his role in '11, and will be less likely to pitch fits as he did early in 2010; if I had to guess, I'd say Bradshaw will probably fall short of the whopping 323 touches from scrimmage he managed last year.

Now, none of this is to say you shouldn't draft Bradshaw on your fantasy team. You should. He's a dynamic player, and I have a feeling that the formerly-aging Giants O-line will be better this year. David Diehl looked cooked at left tackle at the end of last season and will play guard this season, as William Beatty takes over Manning's blind side; Chris Snee is one of the best guards around and David Baas is a big upgrade at center. But as I say, Bradshaw isn't a No. 1 fantasy back, and he's not without substantial risk. Pump the brakes on your excitement over this re-signing, and team him with a more week-to-week reliable No. 1 back in your draft later this month.

HacheMan · Aug 2, 2011

Weekend Recap: Losing Value
Bang it here for the 2011 Rotoworld Football Draft Guide.

1. 49ers WR Michael Crabtree

Crabtree has been ruled out for the preseason after aggravating the same foot injury that he had surgically repaired as a rookie in 2009. There is some speculation Crabtree may open the season on the PUP list, costing him the first six games. The 49ers have confirmed their concern by making bids on free agent Malcom Floyd and Chad Ochocinco, before his trade to New England.

2. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson

Minnesota had one of the NFL's poorest run blocking lines in 2010, so it's perplexing that the lone veteran lineman they've added is 31-year-old journeyman Scott Kooistra. They'll also field one of the league's slowest wideout corps with Michael Jenkins bookending Bernard Berrian, whom the Vikes have apparently decided to keep. Berrian and Jenkins combined for a dreadful 10.97 yards-per-reception average and two touchdowns last season on 69 catches. Percy Harvin is an explosive inside target, but Peterson can expect 8-9 in the box on every snap as defenses single cover Jenkins and Berrian outside with ease.

3. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews

Already the favorite for goal-line carries, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Mike Tolbert is also likely to be the Chargers' primary passing-down back. Mathews is left as the primary ball carrier out of scoring position, and didn't help his cause by reporting to camp out of shape. His conditioning and speed should return before the season, but Mathews doesn't offer as much upside as meets the eye. Tolbert's maintenance of a significant role caps Mathews' ceiling.

4. Free agent WR Steve Smith

The Giants hope to re-sign Smith, but GM Jerry Reese has confirmed he won't be ready for Week 1 after December microfracture surgery. Giants players are under the impression that Smith will miss "at least" the first month, making him a PUP candidate. Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks are the Giants' receivers to target in fantasy drafts this season. Don't bother with Smith.

5. Packers WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson looked primed for an every-down wideout role before the Packers re-signed James Jones to a three-year contract. Jones, Nelson, and Driver will resume their rotation, rendering each other inconsistent scorers. Greg Jennings also continues to be over-drafted in fantasy leagues.

6. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray

Murray was incredibly injury prone at Oklahoma. He's now on the shelf in Dallas, reportedly set to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring strain. We already had doubts about Murray holding up as an NFL player. Early indications aren't promising, and he needed this time after missing all OTAs.

7. Free agent WR Mark Clayton

Coach Steve Spagnuolo conceded that Clayton "isn't ready yet" after rupturing his right patella tendon in Week 5 of last season. The Rams may have already moved on, signing free agent Mike Sims-Walker last Friday night. Clayton should be scratched off your sleepers list for now.

8. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson

LT was forced to take a huge salary cut, slicing his 2011 pay from $2.625 million to $1.1 million. It's an indication that the Jets aren't at all bullish on keeping Tomlinson, particularly after drafting promising early-down rookie Bilal Powell. Tomlinson's role will be dramatically reduced this season, operating behind Shonn Greene and perhaps only sharing snaps with young third-down back Joe McKnight.

9. Bengals RB Bernard Scott

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis semi-promised to get Scott more involved this season, but he's got no shot at a feature back role after the team re-signed Cedric Benson. Passing-down specialist Brian Leonard also returns, leaving Scott with 5-8 carries per game tops barring a Benson injury.

10. Colts RB Delone Carter

Peyton Manning lobbied the Colts to re-sign Joseph Addai, and the $90 million man got his wish Saturday. Carter possesses more fantasy upside in the Indy backfield, but his lack of passing-game value and Manning's adoration of Addai won't make Carter's path to playing time easy.

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2011

Draft Guide Sneak Peek

The NFL's Wild West approach to trades and free agent signings led to an all-hands-on-deck for the Rotoworld news team last week. With @evansilva, @adamlevitan, and @RotoPat keeping the frenzied signings under control this weekend, I was finally afforded the opportunity to update projections and rankings to reflect the week's changes.

Below are the major adjustments made to the 2011 Rotoworld Draft Guide based on fallout from the post-lockout player movement. Rankings, tiers, and projections will be regularly updated throughout the next 5-6 weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. Available soon as an iPhone and iPad app, the Draft Guide also includes Draft Master, custom scoring, ADP report, strength of schedule, team outlooks, player profiles, and Dynasty coverage.

[SIZE=+3]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

Kevin Kolb: If you'll recall, Kolb was regarded as a fantasy breakout candidate last summer due to the Eagles' weapons -- not his own talent. He has a few interesting pieces in Arizona, but we'd feel better about a major leap ahead of Jay Cutler or Joe Flacco if the Cardinals added a left tackle and vertical receiver.

Donovan McNabb: The wind came out of high-end QB2 sails when Michael Jenkins replaced Sidney Rice. McNabb has moved up, but he's just a low-end QB2 in the Vikes' run-first offense.

Matt Cassel: The signing of Steve Breaston is another sign that the Chiefs plan to open up the offense this season. Cassel gets just a slight bump.

Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck will enjoy a better offensive line, ground game, and receiving corps in Tennessee. He moved up just one spot.

Tarvaris Jackson: Opened camp as the starter after reuniting with coordinator Darrell Bevell.

Bruce Gradkowski: Signed with the one team that would give him the best chance to start considering his knowledge of coordinator Jay Gruden's offfense.

Matt Moore: Has a theoretical shot to start over an underwhelming Chad Henne.

Tyler Thigpen: Thigpen's only shot at regaining fantasy value was another round with the pistol spread offense. He landed in the right spot with Chan Gailey calling the plays.

Matt Leinart: Now just a Matt Schaub injury away from taking the reins of a fantasy friendly offense.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Could lose red-zone snaps to new toy Brad Smith. Will also have to spend the season fending off Tyler Thigpen, who has a history with coach Chan Gailey.

Christian Ponder, Joe Webb: Both youngsters will hit the pine with McNabb running the offense.

Vince Young: Still has plenty of late-round value as a handcuff to Michael Vick, but we can't project starter's numbers.

Alex Smith: We have little confidence that Smith will hold off Colin Kaepernick beyond the Week 7 bye.

Charlie Whitehurst: Yesterday's news with Jackson in town.

Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton: Palmer can't earn fantasy points from his couch. Dalton is behind the 8-ball considering Gradkowski's history with coordinator Jay Gruden.

John Beck: Will have to hold off Rex Grossman for the starting job.

Jake Locker: Not likely to see significant playing time barring a Hasselbeck face-plant.

Marc Bulger: Left standing in the QB musical chairs.

Mike Kafka: The No. 2 job was fun while it lasted.

[SIZE=+3]Running Backs[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

Knowshon Moreno: What could have been DeAngelo Williams ended up as a past-his-prime Willis McGahee. After arriving at camp in phenomenal shape, Moreno has regained low-end RB2 value as the Broncos' starter.

Ryan Grant: Grant entered camp as the clear favorite in the Packers backfield after the team picked up his $1.75 million bonus. Coach Mike McCarthy is not expected to use a 50-50 split in the ground game.

Reggie Bush: Bush was seeking a feature back role, and coach Tony Sparano's comments suggest a major increase in weekly touches. Bush is back on the radar as a potential 60-catch back.

Darren Sproles: Sproles should be even more electric on turf, and his workload is due for a slight uptick in the Reggie Bush role.

Delone Carter: We have no confidence in Donald Brown (neither do the Colts). The bull-dozing rookie should enter the season behind only Joseph Addai, a poor bet to stay healthy and effective.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Goodson: Stewart goes from potential RB1 to low-end RB2/flex with Williams back under a monster contract. Williams' upside is limited by the presence of the most talented "1-B" back in the league. Goodson will be lucky to see a handful of touches per game.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Just a slight downgrade, as we don't project Bradshaw to touch the ball as much as he did last season.

James Starks: Will need to severely outplay Grant to open as the starter.

Pierre Thomas: The Saints coaching staff has been tight-lipped about the backfield plans. We have a hard time envisioning a major role for P.T. with Mark Ingram in line for early-down carries and Sproles taking over passing downs.



[SIZE=+3]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

Chad Ochocinco: He's not going to go 2007 Randy Moss on the league, but Ochocinco does regain WR3 status with a major QB upgrade.

Dez Bryant: No longer looking over his shoulder pads at Roy Williams, and reportedly the best player not named DeMarcus Ware early in Cowboys camp.

Mario Manningham: GM Jerry Reese concedes Steve Smith is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. Manningham will be tough to unseat if he streaks out of the gates.

Brandon Lloyd: Kyle Orton has a chance to stick with the Broncos after all.

Robert Meachem: Breakout candidate in better shape than he's ever been as a pro.

Lance Moore: Re-signing in NOLA was best-case scenario after his second top-30 fantasy finish in three years.

Mike Sims-Walker: Could be anywhere from Sam Bradford's top target to off the roster in a month. Risk-reward WR3 option.

Roy Williams: Goes from fourth or fifth target in Dallas to potential No. 1 receiver in Chicago.

Eddie Royal: Back to full health, lining up opposite Brandon Lloyd early in camp.

Early Doucet, Andre Roberts: Slated to battle it out for the No. 2 job with Steve Breaston in Kansas City.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

Steve Smith South: Smith had legitimate WR1 potential in San Diego or Baltimore. He's back to an inconsistent WR3 option with Carolina's iffy QBs.

Michael Crabtree: Re-injured his foot, could miss the start of the season. 49ers now looking at veteran receivers as insurance.

Sidney Rice, Big Mike Williams: Big Mike is the very definition of a volume receiver. That volume figures to decrease with a far more talented Rice as Tarvaris Jackson's go-to target. Catching passes from T-Jack was Rice's worst-case scenario in free agency.

Wes Welker, Deion Branch: Welker is losing a handful or receptions in our projections while Branch's upside is capped with a better receiver in the mix.

Steve Breaston, Jonathan Baldwin: Breaston didn't get $25 million to sit behind Baldwin, but he is going from a pass-heavy offense to a more conservative approach.

Leonard Hankerson: Path to playing time cluttered with Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, and Donte' Stallworth.

Devin Hester: Already losing offensive snaps in the second half of last season, Hester is now fourth in the pecking order with Roy Williams on board.

Brandon Tate: Could be the fifth receiver following the Ochocinco trade.

Editor's Note: Get 2011 rankings, projections, sleeper lists, strategy articles, statistical tools, and Dynasty coverage with Rotoworld's Draft Guide!

[SIZE=+3]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

Jared Cook: Cook gets a slight bump over Tony Gonzalez with the upgrade to Matt Hasselbeck at QB. Gonzalez will fall behind Julio Jones in the Falcons offense.

Greg Olsen: Rotoworld has never been anti-Olsen, just anti-Martz tight ends. Jeremy Shockey has lost his RAC ability, leaving Olsen as the clear favorite for production at tight end in Carolina.

Ed Dickson: Dickson is the favorite for the starting job following Todd Heap's exit. He's more of a downfield threat than Heap, but won't see as many receptions.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

Aaron Hernandez, Rob Grokowski: Both Patriots tight ends lost a couple of receptions after the Chad Ochocinco trade, but their ranking remains the same.

[SIZE=+3]Kickers[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Moving Up[/SIZE]

Jason Hanson: High-scoring dome offense, and the competition with Dave Rayner is Hanson's to lose.

Shaun Suisham: Steelers re-signed Suisham as the favorite to handle kicking duties over Swayze Waters.

Mike Nugent: Bengals released Clint S tits

er, leaving Nugent as the only kicker in camp. Still a bottom-tier fantasy kicker.

[SIZE=+1]Moving Down[/SIZE]

David Akers: The Philadelphia offense was largely responsible for Akers' league-high 115 field goal attempts the past three years. He's headed to a subpar offense in San Fran.

John Kasay: Released by Panthers.

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2011

Zach Miller should thrive with Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks nabbed one of the more underrated tight ends in the league on Tuesday, signing free agent Zach Miller, formerly of the Oakland Raiders, to a five-year, $34 million contract.

But don't the Seahawks already have a pass-catching tight end?
Apparently one is not enough. First-year offensive line coach Tom Cable was adamant that the Seahawks will use both Miller and incumbent John Carlson at tight end.
"We now have two fantastic tight ends," Cable told The News Tribune. "They're going to complement each other the right way.
There is no argument, though, that there was a decline in Carlson's production in 2010, a year removed from a 500-plus-yard, seven-touchdown campaign.
Meanwhile, by the bay, Miller proved to be the Raiders' most reliable receiver. A career-high five touchdowns in 2010, Miller has caught more than 56 passes the past three years, and has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end despite the carousel of quarterbacks throwing to him.
Enter Darrell Bevell, the Seahawks offensive coordinator who spent the previous five seasons with the Minnesota Vikings. Bevell can be credited for transforming Visanthe Shiancoe from a backup tight end into a touchdown machine. In 2008, Shiancoe reeled in seven touchdowns after three in the previous five seasons. A year later he caught 11 touchdowns, second only to Vernon Davis among tight ends.
As the wide receiving corps improved during the Bevell's tenure in Minnesota, Shiancoe found began to be targeted more and more. From 2007 to 2010, Shiancoe was targeted 43 times in 2007, then 59 times in 2008, 79 times in 2009 and 90 times in 2010. Shiancoe was the third in targets on the Vikings in 2008 and 2009, and second last year behind Percy Harvin.
With the attention Shiancoe received under Bevell, expect Miller to have an even higher ceiling in Seattle. Consider the crop of talent, or lack thereof, under center in Oakland: Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper – quarterbacks who've combined to throw 310 touchdowns and 283 picks.
In Seattle, though, it's not as if Peyton Manning is waiting to throw passes for Miller. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll anointed newly-signed Tavaris Jackson, a former starter under Bevell with the Vikings, as the team's starting quarterback.
Jackson is 10-10 in his career, to go along with a 58.7% completion rate, 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. Four of his touchdowns have been thrown to tight ends.
Throw Miller into the mix, and the Seahawks' offense has real potential. With Sidney Rice, Big Mike Williams, Golden Tate and fantasy surprise Benjamin Obomanu flanked out as receivers, Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch in the backfield and Miller likely getting the nod at tight end – not to mention Jackson's ability to run – it will be no easy task for opposing defenses to account for everybody.
Miller could be in store for yet another 50-plus-catch season, likely exceeding the 500-yard mark and grabbing anywhere from three to seven scores. A candidate for a sneaky good season, Miller will finish right outside the top five tight ends in 2011.

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2011

2011 fantasy football mock draft 2.0

By Jim McCormick
ESPN.com

They finally found the key and unlocked the door. Although most rosters around the NFL still aren't exactly firm, we do know a lot more about the landscape of the league today than we did a week ago.

The stagnant summer saw mock draft lobbies idle and inactive, with just a few dedicated nerds (ahem) assessing an incomplete market for talent in nearly empty applets. Suffice it to say, it was an exercise in futility to draft while the league and its players drafted a new deal.
Now that football is back, so is the value of mocking it up and preparing to dominate your league come early September. With this in mind, several members of the ESPN Fantasy staff conducted a mock draft on Aug. 2, using ESPN standard league settings and rules.
Use this draft as a reference tool for when you mock draft in the coming weeks. Or, simply have fun mocking it. You can see the team-by-team results by clicking here, or follow along for the round-by-round breakdown below.
ROUND 1

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>1 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Adrian Peterson, Min RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>2 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Chris Johnson, Ten RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Arian Foster, Hou RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>4 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Jamaal Charles, KC RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Ray Rice, Bal RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Andre Johnson, Hou WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Michael Vick, Phi QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>LeSean McCoy, Phi RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>10 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: I also had the fifth pick in our initial mock draft of the summer, and I selected Ray Rice. My stance hasn't changed in the past several weeks, as Rice bodes to get a workhorse workload in a contract year for a Baltimore offense that will continue to rely on him to move the chains. The addition of fullback Vonta Leach, arguably the best road grader in the game, can only help the total yards maven (a patriotic 1,776 from scrimmage in 2010) add some more touchdowns to his résumé.
The rest of the round: Not many surprises here. After the top five, which for me includes Rice, the debate over Andre Johnson, Michael Vick and a number of tailbacks begins. Nate Ravitz knowingly gambled on the dynamic Vick: "Tons of risk with the Vick pick. But I felt the next four backs (Rashard Mendenhall, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore and Michael Turner) were all about the same."
Eric Karabell, a Philly guy himself, felt that the patience on signal-callers shown in the draft removed value from the Vick pick: "I thought the only quarterback that really wasn't a value was first-rounder Michael Vick."
ROUND 2

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Frank Gore, SF RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers, GB QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>13 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Michael Turner, Atl RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>14 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Roddy White, Atl WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Steven Jackson, StL RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Calvin Johnson, Det WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>17 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>18 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Greg Jennings, GB WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Darren McFadden, Oak RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>20 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: Larry Fitzgerald and even Hakeem Nicks factored in here, but I'm admittedly down with "Megatron" mania. Fitzgerald affords a safer and more consistent option, with arguably just as much scoring upside, but I enjoy the gamble of rolling for a career campaign. If Matthew Stafford can stay on the field (big if), I could see some stellar statistics come from the talented duo.
The rest of the round: As was the case last year, the second round is particularly receiver heavy, with half of the round going to wideouts. Ravitz felt his risk was rewarded with Turner lasting to his second pick: "Actually, I might even like Turner … best of all the running backs I had to choose from when I selected Vick."
Christopher Harris staked his claim in Darren McFadden for another strong season and might just get a value if his health can hold up, and resident medical expert Stephania Bell must believe in Steven Jackson's health holding up for an improving St. Louis offense.
ROUND 3

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>21 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Vincent Jackson, SD WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>22 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Mike Wallace, Pit WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>23 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Drew Brees, NO QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>24 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Reggie Wayne, Ind WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>25 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis, Cle RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>26 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Miles Austin, Dal WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Tom Brady, NE QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>DeSean Jackson, Phi WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>29 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Dez Bryant, Dal WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>30 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Matt Forte, Chi RB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: I wasn't wowed by several options; call it the curse of the middle pick. In the end, Peyton Hillis represented netting two stud backs to start my team, and the wide receivers on the board came with their own definitive risks. I might be paying a bit for what he did last season, but, given how consistent he was, I'm confident I'll get some solid returns on this investment. And no, I'm not aware of that concept that rhymes with "The Nadden Purse."
The rest of the round: The third frame was even more receiver heavy, with six of the selections lining up outside. When asked about his "riskiest" pick, Tristan H. Cockcroft looked straight to his Dallas diva: "Dez Bryant, but I don't dislike the guy, and it was strategic. I knew Eric, who picked after me, had gone RB-RB in the first two rounds, so the chances were that he'd have gone Dez and Dwayne Bowe, and then I'd have been stuck with Mike Williams or Santonio Holmes as my No. 1 wideout, and I just don't see either's upside being as great."
ROUND 4

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>31 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe, KC WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams, Car RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>33 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>34 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Ryan Mathews, SD RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>35 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno, Den RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Peyton Manning, Ind QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount, TB RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>38 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Mike Williams, TB WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>39 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Jahvid Best, Det RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>40 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Philip Rivers, SD QB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: Quarterbacks often fall in these staff leagues, as they are treated like closers in baseball, with more attention paid to positional talent, given that just 10 quarterbacks will start in a given week in this format. I was fine with this deflated market, landing Manning this late, sandwiched by names such as Knowshon Moreno and LeGarrette Blount.
The rest of the round: Two elite signal-callers are surrounded by a series of risks in the running back ranks. Ravitz feels he netted considerable value after taking on early risk: "The gamble of taking Vick in Round 1 (and passing on Gore, McCoy, Mendenhall) seemed to pay off, and I ended up still getting Ahmad Bradshaw, the best value for me. I'd have him as a borderline top-20 guy."
Harris believes Jahvid Best is well and one of the best upside investments to consider: "I think Best has a chance to be healthier this year, and his talent is completely off the charts. Sneak preview: He's going to be one of my 'flag-planted' players later this month."
Dave Hunter saw the QB run going too far when Keith Lipscomb landed the San Diego slinger: "Philip Rivers slipping to Keith Lipscomb at No. 40 overall was a major bell-ringer for me. Wow. Waiting on QB is always the norm with these guys, but I got sucked right into snagging Brees two rounds earlier."
ROUND 5

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>41 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Felix Jones, Dal RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>44 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Tony Romo, Dal QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>45 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>46 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Jermichael Finley, GB TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>47 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Cedric Benson, Cin RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Antonio Gates, SD TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>49 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Marques Colston, NO WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd, Den WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: Mono be damned, Jeremy Maclin has all the signs for a breakout campaign. He's entering the vaunted third year for a wide receiver and is on a particularly dynamic offense. As a fifth-round selection, even if he just repeats the 70 receptions, nearly 1,000 yards and 10 scores from last season, I'm earning a value here -- one with considerable upside.
The rest of the round: Some interesting running back investments were made, and the tight end run started, beginning with a man not named Gates (which speaks to the health concerns).
"I was happy to get Felix Jones at 41," Lipscomb said, "He has big-play potential, which often times can win you a week or two. In addition, he is set up to get more opportunities than he's ever received before, which intrigues me. For whatever reason, Jones became a greater factor when offensive coordinator Jason Garrett added "head coach" to his résumé. In those final eight games of the season, he averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage per game. I'm feeling the breakout."
Karabell thinks the Broncos' murky quarterback situation can be of value in drafts: "I think Brandon Lloyd is a terrific value; the threat of the team going to Tim Tebow has scared everyone off, but I think Lloyd is just a late bloomer that will thrive -- to a degree -- with either Tebow or Kyle Orton again. Fantasy owners have a tendency to hear that someone has bust potential and then just ignore him. Lloyd is falling too far."
Brendan Roberts on selecting Cedric Benson: "I've never been able to explain the weakness I have for this guy. I mean, if I'm gonna have a weakness, why can't it be for a better player? No worries, I'm going to therapy for it. But apparently it didn't work on this day. I was captured by his status as one of the few remaining workhorse backs and his 1,111-yard rushing season in 2010, but the Bengals will be terrible, meaning Benson's TDs, and probably touches, will be affected."
Meanwhile, Hunter explains his affinity for the New England tailback: "I may have reached a bit on BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but looking at the rest of the running back field at that point, I have more confidence in BJGE putting up good No. 2 back numbers than I do Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant and now Jonathan Stewart. To me, it was more about the TD chances with BGJE than anything. He may lose a good amount of touches to Danny Woodhead, Sammy Morris and others, but he's still the Patriots' TD guy. I'm not expecting a repeat of last year yardage-wise, but I see double-digit TDs for the 'Law Firm' in 2011."
ROUND 6

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>51 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Matt Schaub, Hou QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>52 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart, Car RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>53 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Mario Manningham, NYG WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>54 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Dallas Clark, Ind TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>55 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Ryan Grant, GB RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>56 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Shonn Greene, NYJ RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>57 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Jason Witten, Dal TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>58 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Fred Jackson, Buf RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>59 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Vernon Davis, SF TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>60 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Percy Harvin, Min WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: Risk met reward here with Shonn Greene, who reeled me in again this year if only because of his middle-round price tag. LaDainian Tomlinson still looms, but he clearly wore with the workload last season, and one would think the team would look to run often, as the passing offense remains a work in progress. Fred Jackson was a consideration, but I went with the better offense.
The rest of the round: The risks really start in these rounds, but so do the payoffs. Here is what some of our analysts had to say about their investments.
"As long as Percy Harvin can manage his migraine issues," Lipscomb explained, "I was thrilled to get him as my flex. With Sidney Rice gone and Donovan McNabb under center, I expect Harvin to have a strong season."
Cockcroft consolidated the Carolina running game like Monopoly properties, "I didn't have any intention of landing either of the Panthers' backs and then when it came to value points at those picks, those were easily the best on my board, which is awfully convenient because I wasn't even actively trying to handcuff the Carolina backfield. It just worked out, and I have to say, I'm pretty happy about it. As for the QBs? Yeah, they stink. But think about this: They stunk something awful in 2009, yet both backs ran for 1,000-plus yards. And in 2008, Jake Delhomme was certainly average if not below it (my opinion is that he was below average), and DeAngelo had a career year. All I need is for Cam Newton to steal that job -- not hard to imagine -- and, with an arm like his, he should keep defenses just honest enough that my backs won't be completely shut down. I'm hopeful."
ROUND 7

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>61 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Daniel Thomas, Mia RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>62 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>63 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Steve Johnson, Buf WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>64 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Kenny Britt, Ten WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>65 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Brandon Marshall, Mia WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>66 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Josh Freeman, TB QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>67 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Mark Ingram, NO RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>68 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>69 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Wes Welker, NE WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>70 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Sidney Rice, Sea WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: This one just jumped out at me. I know that the Miami quarterback situation remains underwhelming, especially after the team didn't acquire Kyle Orton, but Brandon Marshall's talent surfaced as the best of the seventh for me.
The rest of the round: Karabell seems to have been similarly motivated by Rice, who -- despite a questionable quarterback situation -- has the talent to produce big dividends this late. If Kenny Britt can stay on the field and out of trouble, James Quintong might have netted a legitimate steal. Miami's Daniel Thomas should only rise as draft day approaches.
"Steve Johnson at No. 63 overall in the draft was the best value for my club," Hunter said, "especially since he should've gone an entire round or two earlier. Although being the Bills' No. 1 WR isn't saying much, he's still a talented kid. I love his brash attitude and his incredible downfield speed. Sure, defenses might [give him more attention], but give me the talent in Johnson every time."
Said Cockcroft: "I was particularly pleased with Wes Welker, who I judge a little better than a seventh-rounder."
ROUND 8

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>71 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco, NE WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>72 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>James Starks, GB RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>73 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Anquan Boldin, Bal WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>74 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Pierre Thomas, NO RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>75 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Ryan Torain, Wsh RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>76 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Mikel Leshoure, Det RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>77 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Joseph Addai, Ind RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>78 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Pierre Garcon, Ind WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>79 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Austin Collie, Ind WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>80 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Plaxico Burress, NYJ WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: I went with upside and the somewhat unknown here with Mikel Leshoure, who just entered my spell check. My thinking is that even if Best holds up, as Harris believes is possible, the touchdown vulture potential alone in a burgeoning offense could return this level of investment. Harris isn't as enthused as I am, "I can't get terribly worked up about Mikel Leshoure yet. Listen, he was a TD machine in college, but he's never touched a professional football yet, and we're already ceding him a huge role?"
The rest of the round: A Plaxico Burress sighting, and the Indy boys go back-to-back in a somewhat surreal round.
"As far as Burress is concerned," Lipscomb explained, "because I already had three receivers, I felt I could take a chance on Plax with one of my two wraparound picks in the eighth and ninth rounds. I didn't expect him to be there at 100, so I took a shot on him over Steve Smith and Santana Moss. While it's hard to guess what Burress will provide, I think 900 yards and 7 TDs is a reasonable expectation, but clearly I felt the upside was worth it."
"For where you get to draft them, I actually think Austin Collie is a smarter pick," Harris said. "Yes, of course, there's tons of risk with his concussions. But if he wasn't a health risk, don't we think he'd be rated quite a bit above Pierre Garcon? And considering in a 10-team league you don't need to draft either of those guys to be a starting player, I'll take the guy with the higher best-case scenario. It's true that Dallas Clark may cannibalize Collie's production in the middle of the field, but I still love Collie to approach double-digit TDs if his head's OK."
"As for Joseph Addai," Quintong said, "I suppose most of the Colts' options at the position are still iffy overall, but he is still the main guy, and they will have to use the backs somewhat. Addai doesn't have a ton of upside, and I suppose he might've been a better No. 4 running back, but on the other hand, I probably trust him as much (or more than some of the other options that went around the same spot)."
ROUND 9

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>81 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Owen Daniels, Hou TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>82 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Beanie Wells, Ari RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>83 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller, Buf RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>84 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Steve Smith, Car WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>85 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Santana Moss, Wsh WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>86 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Jordy Nelson, GB WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>87 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Braylon Edwards, FA WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>88 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Ryan Williams, Ari RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>89 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Zach Miller, Sea TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>90 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Matt Ryan, Atl QB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: Moss just stood out as a known commodity. The quarterback situation could be scary in D.C., but Moss is the man there and continues to produce at a level comparable to, or above, where he lands in drafts.
The rest of the round: In regards to the best pricing of his draft, Harris believes that Wells is in a position to provide value, "I'll say Beanie Wells. Not that I believe everything that comes out of Ken Whisenhunt's mouth, but with Tim Hightower gone from Arizona, I do think Ryan Williams is the only real pass-catching option the Cardinals have, which means Wells has a decent chance to play on early downs. Listen, I'm not hyping Beanie as a must-start, must-draft guy. But I think the needle is pointing too far down on him … he's good value where you can get him, and pray for the upside to come true."

ROUND 10

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>91 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Mike Tolbert, SD RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>92 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>A.J. Green, Cin WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>93 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Johnny Knox, Chi WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>94 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Michael Crabtree, SF WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>95 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Lance Moore, NO WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>96 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs, NYG RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>97 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>98 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Roy Helu, Wsh RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>99 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Michael Bush, Oak RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>100 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Ronnie Brown, Phi RB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My pick: The big bruiser appeared to be a value as a backup back capable of scoring in any given week, with multiple scores a distinct possibility.
The rest of the round: "As for A.J. Green," Cockcroft said, "of any rookie wideout, that's the guy to get. The No. 1 option has the skills to back it up. The pick was more of an upside-plays strategy on my overall team than it was personal interest in Green; this was a case of seeing where I was picking, what was falling to the pick and just loading up on high-ceiling players. Green? He could be a sneaky top-30 guy. I could see it."
Lipscomb was had by the clock, "Ronnie Brown signed with the Eagles about two hours after the draft was over, which makes me feel not as good about his prospects. Let's just say Philly doesn't exactly represent the "run-heavy" outfit I had hoped for.
Karabell enjoys landing Southern California's favorite bowling ball, "I'm starting to wonder about second-year running back Ryan Mathews and his ability to stay healthy. He's off to a bad start in camp, and we know Tolbert is a bowling ball capable of scoring touchdowns even if Ryan Mathews is the main guy, which is no sure thing. Tolbert is a bye-week fill-in for this team I drafted, someone unlikely to produce better numbers, but a nice value in Round 10."
ROUND 11

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>101 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Steelers D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>102 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Matthew Stafford, Det QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>103 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Malcom Floyd, SD WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>104 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Reggie Bush, Mia RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>105 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker, StL WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>106 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Willis McGahee, Den RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>107 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Thomas Jones, KC RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>108 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Roy Williams, Chi WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>109 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Julio Jones, Atl WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>110 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>James Jones, GB WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ROUND 12

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>111 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Montario Hardesty, Cle RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>112 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Rashad Jennings, Jac RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>113 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Marion Barber, Chi RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>114 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Mike Thomas, Jac WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>115 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Steve Breaston, KC WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>116 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Donald Brown, Ind RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>117 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Mike Williams, Sea WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>118 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Ben Tate, Hou RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>119 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Deion Branch, NE WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>120 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Darren Sproles, NO RB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

My picks: Two somewhat upside selects that could just as easily be waiver-wire material a month into the season. Mike Sims-Walker was sitting there, and it seems that Sam Bradford has some star-maker in him and that "The Hyphen" has some production pedigree to bank on. Donald Brown is simply in the mix in a good offense, and that's about the best thing you can say about him fantasy-wise.
The rest of the round: Harris thinks Roberts got an absolute steal, "I like Mike Thomas in the 12th; he was going to be my pick later in the round, when I took Deion Branch. Thomas' upside probably isn't that high, but I think his downside is pretty low; the Jags seem convinced that he can be their No. 1 receiver, and there's really no competition for him."
"Marion Barber was sort of an 'I can't find anyone I really like here, so I guess I'll take him in the blind hope he's got something left' pick," Ravitz said.
"I think I panicked a bit getting Reggie Bush where I did," Quintong admitted, "but my depth-at-running-back strategy was thrown off slightly when Brandon Jacobs went one pick before me in the 10th round. I have no problem with LaDainian Tomlinson, but was really stuck between Bush and Montario Hardesty, whom I still like as a sleeper."

ROUND 13

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>121 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Eli Manning, NYG QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>122 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Packers D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>123 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Chris Cooley, Wsh TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>124 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Jets D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>125 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Kellen Winslow, TB TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>126 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Sam Bradford, StL QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>127 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Eagles D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>128 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb, Ari QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>129 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis, Jac TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>130 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Tim Hightower, Wsh RB </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ROUND 14

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>131 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham, NO TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>132 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Ravens D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>133 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Bears D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>134 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Hines Ward, Pit WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>135 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Patriots D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>136 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Javon Ringer, Ten RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>137 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Jay Cutler, Chi QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>138 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Joe Flacco, Bal QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>139 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>140 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Donnie Avery, StL WR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ROUND 15

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>141 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Randy Moss, Ten WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>142 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Jacoby Ford, Oak WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>143 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>Chargers D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>144 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Danario Alexander, StL WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>145 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Giants D/ST D/ST </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>146 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski, NE TE </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>147 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Tim Tebow, Den QB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>148 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Danny Amendola, StL WR </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>149 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Shane Vereen, NE RB </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>150 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Lions D/ST D/ST </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ROUND 16

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Pick </TH><TH>Overall </TH><TH>By </TH><TH>Player </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>151 </TD><TD>Karabell </TD><TD>Nate Kaeding, SD K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>152 </TD><TD>Cockcroft </TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski, NE K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>153 </TD><TD>Ravitz </TD><TD>Neil Rackers, Hou K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>154 </TD><TD>Roberts </TD><TD>Garrett Hartley, NO K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>155 </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Josh Brown, StL K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>156 </TD><TD>McCormick </TD><TD>Rob Bironas, Ten K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>157 </TD><TD>Quintong </TD><TD>Mason Crosby, GB K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>158 </TD><TD>Hunter </TD><TD>David Akers, SF K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>159 </TD><TD>Harris </TD><TD>Alex Henery, Phi K </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>160 </TD><TD>Lipscomb </TD><TD>Ryan Longwell, Min K </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The final four rounds: Cockcroft summarizes the twilight rounds well, "Those Rounds 11-14 picks, when I'd be doing a heck of a lot of sleeper hunting, were largely a crapshoot, a smattering of still-free agents and maybe second- and third-tier guys on the depth chart, and I felt like, at any given time, I wanted to toss a dozen names into a hat and pick one that way. I think that partly explains why a lot of running backs we have ranked much lower than where they got picked went sooner, why defenses didn't wait generally until Round 15, and I know my own approach was not to sweat it with either of those things. Don't get married to your 11th-14th rounders this year was kind of my takeaway. Usually it's only the 14th- and 15th-rounders that I'm prepared to cut instantaneously (if needed)."
In kicker territory, we found a recently retired, Canton-bound diva. "The Randy Moss selection was a lottery ticket on the possibility he doesn't stay retired," Lipscomb said, "because if he returned, he'd do it only with a championship contender and, therefore, he'd be motivated. If he doesn't come back, I'll gladly hit the waiver wire once we know more about position battles late in camp."

HacheMan · Aug 4, 2011

Recent QB signings: winners and losers

By Eric Karabell

I'm probably not going to draft Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick in any leagues, mainly because, as I've noted before, I don't view him as fantasy's top quarterback this season, and others do. Thus, while I think he'll perform well, it's unlikely he will fall to me. Vick is not only going in the first round, but with the No. 5 pick in ESPN average live drafts! Wow. Just, wow. But hey, I am rooting for him to stay healthy and productive.

However, in case Vick doesn't remain upright, the Eagles brought in former Tennessee Titans talent Vince Young as the No. 2 guy, and if we're talking winners and losers among quarterbacks over the past week or so, I have to call Young a winner. He found a nice situation. It was obvious he was leaving Tennessee, and he didn't end up with a starting job, but still, this is a pretty sweet place to land. Full disclosure, I've never been a fan of Young from a statistical standpoint, but if he gets a chance to play, there's fantasy value to be had, and he'll be available in most every league.
Basically, similar to Monday's blog topic about how I trusted the professionally run New England Patriots and thus am buying what they're selling with Chad Ochocinco, I also feel that Young's abilities will be more likely to come to fruition in Philly with strong coaching and able weapons -- if he's given the chance, of course. Let's face it, although most people probably think he can't play, he most assuredly can play. He's had his moments. The tools are there.
Now, I'm not saying Young is close to draftable in a standard 10-team league, but if I was drafting Vick in a deeper league, Young wouldn't be a bad late-round pick, especially knowing the kind of injury-risk Vick is. It's kind of like a third quarterback for deeper leagues, after the Matthew Stafford-type of backup. If Young plays, it means Vick isn't. And I can see a scenario in which Vick is hurt, Young steps in and performs well enough to be a short-term fantasy addition for deeper leagues, thanks in no small part to the talent around him.
The biggest winner for fantasy football among quarterbacks over the past week is not Young, though he is a winner. The notable top guy also had Philly ties. With that, let's discuss some winners and losers:
Winners

Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: I was actually beginning to feel badly for the guy. He's Arizona's starter now, and I can see him reaching Eli Manning-type numbers -- 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns -- though there's obviously no way to know for sure until he plays regularly. I don't feel like we've learned a thing from Kolb's occasional play as an Eagle. Draft Kolb in the 15-17 range among quarterbacks, not as a starter, but a worthy sleeper/backup. Frankly, I consider him pretty much on par with Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford, but they're experienced, so I take them first. There's value here on Kolb.

Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings: I'm not a big fan of McNabb, but he really isn't as bad as he showed last year. It was a poor situation, and now he's in a better one, with a top running back -- the top running back -- and certainly the realization that he's running out of time. McNabb was motivated a year ago, and now he must really be motivated. Plus, he's on a better team. I could see McNabb as a top-15 quarterback this season, though I can't draft him quite that high. A week ago, who knew if he'd play?
Losers

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos: The lack of a Kyle Orton trade really alters the situation in Denver. I think Tebow can be a usable starting quarterback in the NFL, and he brings sleeper possibilities in the fantasy world, but if the Broncos don't agree, forget it. Orton has the better arm. He's proven it before. If he gets dealt, I'm sticking with Tebow as a sleeper. I think he can play. But it sure isn't looking like Orton is going to get dealt. And if Orton stays, he probably starts, and he's in that McNabb range of useful backups. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: I won't draft a rookie quarterback. Not sure I ever have, in fact. And I have concerns about Newton. The fact the Panthers signed the dismal Derek Anderson, and have been talking him up like they intend to use him initially, doesn't clear a path for Newton to play sooner. Do we want him playing sooner in fantasy? Probably not, but I still think the experience would be helpful. Frankly, if the Panthers think Anderson is a good fit, it makes me wonder about the state of the franchise.