Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

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hacheman@therx.com
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Ya just never know, mate

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com

It was a few days after Thanksgiving and my writing partner Eric Abrams and I were, once again, unemployed. We had just finished working as semi-low-level writers on a sitcom called "Union Square." Executive produced by the famed director James Burrows ("Cheers," "Friends," "Will & Grace," etc.) among others, it had been an NBC Thursday night show slotted between "Friends" and "Seinfeld." It couldn't miss.

Except, of course, it did. It was not a good show and I learned many lessons on what not to do while working on it.
Anyway, the show was canceled and we had five months or so to kill before "staffing season," as spring is known, and shows would go about the once-a-year process of hiring new writers.
As we were trying to decide what we wanted to do, our agent called with a simple question.
Agent: You guys know who Paul Hogan is?
Me: Of course.
Agent: You ever seen "Crocodile Dundee"?
Me: Of course.
Agent: Well, Paul Hogan is a client here. And he wants to do a third installment of the franchise. I'm one of the agents in charge of putting together writers to pitch him ideas for the film. If you want, I'll throw you guys on the list.
Me: But we've never written a movie before. We don't even have a spec (a sample script).
Agent: I know. You probably won't get the job. But it'll be good practice. And … you never know.
So Eric and I thought about it and were like, What the heck! Let's meet Paul Hogan. It'll be a funny story.
So we rewatched the first two movies. They're charming. They are not laugh-out-loud funny or have large "set pieces" (an elaborate scene, like a car chase through the streets or something very memorable) but they have an easy watchability to them. It's a series of small moments. OK, got it.
The other thing we noticed is that Paul Hogan's character is much funnier reacting. This is an important distinction. Most comedic actors are funnier when they have the punch line or when they are the one forcing the action or doing the funny, outrageous thing. In this case, the comedy comes from this guy from another land (down under!) reacting to things that are normal to us, but obviously not normal to a guy who has lived in the Australian outback. So, easy, right? Film of simple moments, loose plot, need him to react to stuff. Got it.
At this time, "Something About Mary" was the big comedy and R-rated comedies were big. So we're like … this isn't built to compete with movies like that. The people who are seeing that movie aren't seeing this. The only shot it has is if it's a family comedy that people who liked the original can take their kids to. Sounds good enough for us.
We're not getting this job, not even sure we want it, so we don't spend a lot of time.
All we knew was that Linda, Hogan's real-life wife, had to also be in it. And it takes place present-day, which is to say, 16 years after the last movie. OK. Gotcha.
So, like a week later, we meet him and make the pitch. "Look," we tell him, "you did New York in the first two movies and you were dating Linda but never married. But you guys have been together all this time, so let's say you have a kid together. He's a little Croc. She gets a job in L.A. and so the family moves to California, but the kid has never been outside of Australia. You get a job at a movie studio as an animal trainer because you can "talk" to animals. Turns out there's some bad guys there, you save the day. At the end, you decide to marry her, so we end with a wedding. Everyone loves a wedding. But most of the time, you're in Hollywood, there's lots of craziness here, you'll wander around and react to stuff. It's 'Crocodile Dundee.' We'll make it funny."

And there was a long pause as he looked at us. And then he said, in that unmistakable accent, "Ah, you guys are the only ones who get me. You're hired."
As the man said … there's always a chance.
Apparently, he had met with like 30 writers and everyone else had pitched him crazy stuff like "Crocodile Dundee saves the world from a nuclear explosion," "Crocodile Dundee in Space," or really raunchy humor. We were the only ones who were like "Dude, it's not hard. The movies are what they are. Put him in funny situations and let him react. That's the whole movie."
We took the meeting as a lark and now we had to decide if we actually wanted a gig we never thought we'd get. Our agent pitched us on it: Look, this movie will get made. (It's almost impossible to get a movie, any movie, made in Hollywood. Especially from first-time writers.) You've never written a movie before. They will pay you to write one and if it's good, you can use it as a sample. And guess what they want to pay you?
When we heard the amount, we almost choked. If you're gonna sell out, kids, sell out big.
I didn't like how the movie turned out -- it was never going to be great, given we were starting with a sequel to a 16-year-old movie -- but the original script was much more self-referential and snarky. For example, the movie studio where Croc worked made nothing but "useless sequels that are way too old and no one cares about." Lots of jokes like that, making fun of ourselves, that sort of thing. Frankly, I hated the whole process of it. We ended up getting into a legal battle with Paul, which is whole 'nother story. So overall, I didn't enjoy the experience.
But, I made enough money from it to buy my first house and to start a fantasy sports website as a side project, so I will always have a soft spot in my heart for Croc. If I don't get that gig, who knows how my life turns out?
I was thinking of that story this week, as we enter Week 15, which for ESPN standard leagues is the second week of a two-week first-round playoff. Maybe you had DeMarco Murray starting last week and got to watch him limp off the field. Maybe you were the lucky recipient of a three-point game from Calvin Johnson. Perhaps you noticed the Packers threw up 46 points on the Raiders and were shocked to discover that Jermichael Finley had not one catch. Or you just played against Maurice Jones-Drew and the Lions' defense. One way or the other, you are down and you are down big.
Which is why I speak to you now, my down-but-not-out friends. You never know. Just like the story of Eric and me getting to write a sequel to the (at the time) highest-grossing comedy franchise of all time, despite never having written a movie.
Just because it is unlikely does not mean it can't happen. When Eric and I pitched the script, we assumed we weren't getting it, that we were down big to everyone else who had a script on their résumé, so we didn't care and just let it fly. If you are down big, do the same. Throughout today's column, I have replaced the usual "If you're desperate" picks with "Hail Mary" plays.
These are high-risk, high-reward players who could easily put up small numbers but could also go off. You need to swing for the fences here. Don't be shy. Ask anyone who was down by 45 before Michael Vick took the field on Monday night in Week 10 last season.
You never know.
For the rest of you, if you are still playing this week, chances are you have a pretty good team. So I'm focusing on guys who might be on the bubble for you, one way or the other. In general, in the playoffs, I like to be as safe as possible and as risk-averse as possible (if I am only down or up by a few in a two-week playoff). That means, in general, don't get cute. Go safe and conservative when you can. Use the guys who got you where you are now.
It also means that I urge you to realize this is not a pure start/sit list but rather me telling you about the guys whom I think will do better or worse than they normally do. Please consult my rankings on Friday if you really want to know if I'd start Player X over Player Y. That's what those rankings are for.
Week 15 Players I love

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons: Wanna talk about a long shot? The fact that, in Week 15, I've got Matt Ryan in the love list. Never been a big fan of Matt Ryan as fantasy quarterback. Always felt he was a better real-life quarterback, that the Falcons were too run- and ball-control-oriented and that his upside was limited. But, the lord of yards after catch, as Julio Jones is known around TMR HQ, has helped change that, along with Michael Turner's shame spiral into Flexplayville. Since his bye week, Ryan is averaging 298 yards over six games with 14 touchdowns. He gets a home game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has been decimated by injuries.

Tim Tebow, QB, Denver Broncos: He's averaging more than 16 fantasy points a game in the eight games he's been a starter. It's never pretty, but he's consistently been a solid fantasy producer. For all the (deserved) crap I take for Michael Vick, how about some love for the Tebow call? I'm pretty sure I was alone, when, before he started a game this year, I said he'd be a successful fantasy and NFL quarterback. Against a New England Patriots team that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Tebow is a safe choice this week. Also, if he beats Tom Brady, Twitter will shut down.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: If you're looking outside the top 10 this week, you could do worse than Dalton, who has very little downside (at least nine points in 10 straight, averaging 13 points a game over that time frame) and definitely has some upside against a Rams team that has 10 -- count 'em, 10 -- guys from their secondary on IR.
Hail Mary Plays: Rex Grossman is always a better play in leagues that don't count turnovers, but he's averaging 269 yards over his past four contests, with seven touchdowns in that time. The New York Giants are 29th against the pass. … If Matt Moore gets healthy and manages to start, he threw three touchdowns the last time he faced the Buffalo Bills. … T.J Yates is fresh off a 300-yard game and gets the Carolina Panthers, who are tied for the ninth most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. … OK, sure, he got pulled due to performance, but Christian Ponder also averages 18 fantasy points a game at home this year as a starter and I'm saying the New Orleans Saints game is not a low scoring one. … Finally, I'm not sure if Matt Hasselbeck misses this game or not, but I thought Jake Locker looked kinda good last week. If Locker starts, he wouldn't be the first to put up a lot of points against the Indianapolis Colts.
Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders: I think this is an obvious name, but yesterday I was asked about Bush versus Ahmad Bradshaw, so I guess not. Dude may not have a cool name or a fun habit like shoving Skittles down his mouth during a game, but he's been just as Beast Mode as the original. A score in five of the past six games, he's been as consistent as they come. I don't think Darren McFadden is playing the rest of this year, let alone this week, so, even with the return of Ndamukong Suh, you're starting Bush. Don't get cute.
Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: The St. Louis Rams are giving up 160 yards a game and a touchdown to opposing running backs over their past four games. They are 32nd against the run. They made Beanie Wells look like Jim Brown. They are on a short week. The big play they practice is trying to chase down a guy who is breaking toward the end zone. They are mean to nuns and puppies. I guess what I am trying to say is … they aren't very good. Cedric Benson is averaging more than 18 rushing attempts a game. Eighteen shots a game against the Rams? I like my chances.
Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys: OK, so I've mentioned fullback Tony Fiammetta a few times this year. There have been seven games in which Fiammetta has been active this year. In those seven games, DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones have had 952 total yards. Think about that. Almost 1,000 total yards in seven games. More importantly, there have been only three games in which Jones has been the lead back and Fiammetta was active. One was the San Francisco 49ers game, when Jones had just 30 total yards. Fine, no one runs on the Niners. Next was the Washington Redskins game in which he had 155 total yards. And third was this past Sunday against the New York Giants, when he had 137 total yards once Murray went down. Now, he gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed more than 2,200 total yards and 19 touchdowns to opposing running backs. As they say down on the farm, the light don't get any greener, pal. Whatcha waiting for?
Reggie Bush, RB, Miami Dolphins: He had 60 total yards and a score the last time he faced Buffalo, and that was back when the Bills were trying. Here's another long shot for you: Reggie Bush has five touchdowns this year and none of them has been a reception. In fact, those five scores have all come in the past six games. He's averaging 12 fantasy points a game and has racked up three 100-yard rushing performances over his past seven contests, and is definitively better than a pizza. The Bills allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the fourth-most red zone rushing touchdowns, are tied for the third-most total rushing touchdowns, and give up 4.7 yards per carry. They are -- what is the phrase? -- not so good.
Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins: It would be just like Shanahan to pull the rug out on Helu and his owners in the fantasy playoffs, but despite the risk, I like him against the New York Giants. Dude has three straight 100-yard games and is averaging 29 touches a game. It's a no-name offensive line in Washington these days, but Helu is still getting it done and will continue to do so against a Giants team giving up 4.7 yards per carry, 5.33 rushing yards per play on first down (most in the NFL) and 13 rushing touchdowns.
Hail Mary Plays: Ben Tate had better numbers than Arian Foster last week, is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this year and has a great matchup against the Carolina Panthers. … Since their bye week, the Tennessee Titans are allowing 158 total yards per game to opposing running backs, making Donald Brown, who is averaging 14 touches a game over his past six and scored the last time he faced Tennessee a deeper league consideration. … If you were the Chicago Bears, would you trust Marion Barber? Kahlil Bell had 14 touches for 64 yards last week and looks to be in line for at least that many this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who are much more human away from home. … It's a bad matchup with the Minnesota Vikings and we don't know if Mark Ingram is out again, but it's worth noting Chris Ivory had 13 touches (Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles had 12) last week and is available in pretty much every league. Maybe you get a goal-line carry or two. … I'm not holding my breath on Kevin Smith playing this week. If he doesn't, Keiland Williams (14 carries for 60 yards last week), not Maurice Morris (5 for 16) was the guy getting the most work. Good matchup with the Oakland Raiders.

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: If this were a Harry Potter novel, A.J. Green would be one of those guys who was impervious to any spells. Of course, if this were a Harry Potter novel, I'd be writing it while sitting on an actual pile of cash, not this dumb chair. And you wouldn't be reading it. Because I would be retired, living on an island with only a serving staff and the original cast of "Beverly Hills, 90210," whom I have hired to do live performances of every episode, in order. What? I bet that's cheaper than you think. A lot cheaper. In case anyone wants to get their friendly neighborhood TMR a Hannukah present. Just saying. While you look up the information for Joe E. Tata's agent, I'll remind you that Green seems to produce no matter who the opponent is. His 59 yards last week against a very good Houston Texans defense was his lowest output in a game in which he was active since Week 3. He's the 13th-highest-scoring fantasy wideout this year and now he gets the St. Louis Rams, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, who are down to starting Ian Ziering and the guy who played Ray Pruitt in the secondary. How am I the only guy to have him top 10?
Laurent Robinson, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Much will be made this week about the fact that last week, per ESPN Stats and Information, Robinson was on the field for just 30 snaps compared to Miles Austin (59) and Dez Bryant (58). And I acknowledge that. I also don't care. Those 30 snaps were enough for 137 yards and a score. He's got eight TDs in the past seven weeks. Plus, as we go Next Level, check this out:
NEXT LEVEL: Laurent Robinson has caught five of Romo's eight touchdowns in three-plus-wide-receiver sets over the past seven games.
Tony Romo Passing with 3-plus WRs on Field, 2011 Season

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH></TH><TH>1st 6 Games </TH><TH>Last 7 Games </TH><TH>0 </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Completion pct </TD><TD>61.8 </TD><TD>64.4 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Yards/attempt </TD><TD>6.8 </TD><TD>7.9 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>TD-Int </TD><TD>1-2 </TD><TD>8-0 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Total QBR </TD><TD>57.9 </TD><TD>88.3 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In fact, since Week 8, Robinson is tied for 11th in red zone targets, only three players have more red zone receptions (Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates and Percy Harvin) and no one has more red zone scores than Robinson's six (Gronk also has six in that time frame). Given his production and the matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I just don't know how you sit him.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: If Big Ben plays, it's a no-brainer. He's been ridiculous and he is rivaling Tim Tebow for number of consecutive weeks I talk about him. But one thing that gives me hope, even if Charlie Batch plays, is his speed and the ability for yards after the catch. As good as the San Francisco 49ers' defense is, it has given up 1,556 yards after the catch this year (per Stats, LLC) which is the 14th most in the NFL. Since Week 7, among wide receivers, only Harvin and Larry Fitzgerald have more yards after the catch than Brown. So I can see a lot of slants and bubble screens from Batch to get Brown in space and let him do the rest.
Hail Mary Plays: One game is a fluke, two is a trend. So there's hope for owners of Demaryius Thomas, who has 11 receptions, 222 yards and three scores in two games and now faces the New England Patriots, who allow the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. … Santana Moss has 28 targets in the three weeks since returning from injury and the New York Giants allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In that same game, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are clearly a cut above, but it's worth noting that Mario Manningham had 62 yards and a score last week and could have had another if not for a bad drop. … We are all waiting to see who gets the Greg Jennings love in Green Bay now that Jennings is out with an injury, but Donald Driver had been heating up prior to that anyways (at least seven points in three of the past four games) and James Jones certainly has big-play ability. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel suggests Randall Cobb, working out of the slot, could see a big boost. I rank them in the order I listed them, but until we see how it shakes out, it's all high-risk, high-reward. … Finally, if Jake Locker gets the start for the Tennessee Titans, Nate Washington should be happy. Eight of his nine targets last week came with Locker in the game, when he went for a total of 130 yards and a score. He scored the last time he faced Indy as well.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons: He's the anti-Jermichael Finley. At least six fantasy points in every game this year but one, and the Jacksonville Jaguars allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Jake Ballard, TE, New York Giants: If you're outside the top 10 and looking for a guy, he's top 10 in targets among tight ends, he's had at least 40 yards in three straight games, including a score last week, and the Washington Redskins allow the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Plus, when he scores, you can do your best Ricky Bobby and go "Shake and Jake! Shake and Jake!" Anyone? Come on, someone thought that was funny. No? Just me? OK.
Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: Wanna win a bar bet? Ask someone, "Who leads the Eagles in receptions this year?" It's Fantasy Zombie Celek. Hasn't done a ton recently, and frankly, Celek should probably be more of a Hail Mary play. But if you're looking outside the top 10, I sort of like him here. Just a gut call more than anything, but I feel like the New York Jets defend the deep ball so well that Philly will have to do a lot of underneath stuff and that the injury to safety Jim Leonhard hurts a lot more than folks realize.
Hail Mary Plays: Anthony Fasano has at least five fantasy points in four of his past five and scored the last time he faced the Buffalo Bills. … Dallas Clark is back and, um, well, he used to be good. He did have 77 yards against the Tennessee Titans earlier this year, Dan Orlovsky targeted him six times last week and the Titans allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST: Why, look at who is playing offensive lineman for the St. Louis Rams. It's Muntz. And Andrea Zuckerman. That's not a shot at Andrea, by the way, as she's known for having excellent zone technique. But rather a comment on the lack of depth on the Rams' offensive line, as they've had to start nine different linemen, tied for the second most of any team this season. In fact, the Rams are one of only two teams that have not had a single offensive lineman start every game in the same position this year. (The Seattle Seahawks are the other.) Defenses facing the Rams have scored at least 14 points for four straight games. I'm saying it's five. The Bengals are available in 30 percent of leagues.
Detroit Lions D/ST: I recently got the following email here at TMR HQ: "Dear Matthew: I notice how you like to call Rex Grossman 'The Human Turnover.' I take extreme issue with this. I have played in only seven games this year but I already rank seventh in interceptions with 13. I'm the only player with 10-plus interceptions and fewer than 10 TD passes. In fact, my 5.9 interception percentage since Week 7 (minimum 100 attempts) is third highest in the NFL. Please reconsider who you give that nickname to. Best, Carson Palmer."


Hail Mary Plays: The Miami Dolphins had 19 fantasy points the last time they faced Buffalo, are averaging 11 points over their past six and the Bills are reeling. The Arizona Cardinals, believe it or not, are playing really tough these days. It's showing up in the fantasy defense, where they have at least seven points in six of the past seven games. A home game against the Cleveland Browns, who might be without Colt McCoy, seems promising. … Finally, the Tennessee Titans had 16 points the last time they faced Indy and, well, the Colts haven't improved since then.
Week 15 Players I Hate

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets: Averaging just 10 fantasy points a game on the road, he faces an Eagles defense that is actually, shockingly, kinda … good lately. They've allowed an average of just 13 points a game to opposing quarterbacks the past four weeks and that includes a 28-point game by Tom Brady. With all due respect, Sanchez ain't Brady. The Eagles racked up nine sacks last week (Philly is second in the NFL in sacks), so expect him to be under pressure, and Shonn Greene has run well lately. On the road in Philly, I expect a conservative game plan and lots of running, limiting Sanchez's upside.
Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland Raiders: See Defense, Lions.

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers: You didn't care because he scored, but Gore got only 10 carries last week. Ten. Jim Harbaugh has admitted he doesn't think Gore is 100 percent healthy, and now he's got a bad matchup, as the Pittsburgh Steelers give up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Gore hasn't had 100 total yards since Week 9 as teams are starting to slow him down. You're hoping for a touchdown from Gore, but Pittsburgh has the second-best scoring defense in the league. You probably don't have better options, so you have to play him, but man. He's a low-end No. 2 for me.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Insert last week's joke about "insert runner facing 49ers" here.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, New England Patriots: He should sue himself for malpractice! He's in contempt of fantasy court! We need a sidebar to discuss where the end zone is! His corpus has no habeas! See, if someone says there's nothing more annoying than BJGE's lack of fantasy production and inconsistent touches (single-digit fantasy points and carries in five of the past seven games) you just say, "Oh no, I can make a bunch of hacky Law Firm jokes that make no actual legal sense." That'll show him. It's the playoffs. He might go off. He might get five carries. It's not a terrible matchup, but too much risk for me. I'll settle for a continuance and two episodes of any David E. Kelley show in which the law also makes no sense. I think Kathy Bates shoots people in one of them.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: Only on the "hate" list as a running back, he could be usable as a wide receiver in ESPN leagues. But he has three games as the lead back and only one of them has been good. That was against the Titans, who are Buffalo-esque in their run defense. Now they get a Miami Dolphins team that has a new coach but the same run defense. One that is third against the run (less than 90 yards rushing allowed per game), has given up only five rushing touchdowns all year and held Fred Jackson to just 17 yards rushing (and only 67 total yards, well below what he was doing) the last time they played.
Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills: Speaking of guys who struggled the last time they faced Miami. He was held under 20 yards in his first game against the Dolphins. I frankly hope I'm really wrong on this one. I desperately need Stevie on an injury-plagued team that's in a semifinal matchup with Steve Brandano. Props if you know who that is. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' secondary has been inconsistent all year, but I do like its corners.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers: He'll have Ike Taylor all over him and will be against the second-best scoring defense in the league. San Fran allows the sixth-most sacks in the league, so it won't want Alex Smith to stay in the pocket a long time, which means quick throws and short routes, further limiting his upside. This is a low-scoring game, making Crabtree a flex play at best.
Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Jets: They need to score to be useful in fantasy and you already know I'm not crazy about Sanchez in this game. The Philadelphia Eagles have improved recently, allowing less than 100 yards in two straight to opposing wideouts (and only one touchdown per game for three of the past four). One of these guys might get in the end zone, but I'm not comfortable risking my playoffs on it.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Again, just too hit-or-miss for me to risk it, especially considering the New York Jets have allowed only three touchdowns of 20-plus yards, second-fewest in the NFL. He's not a volume guy, he's a big-play guy and I just don't like the odds of him getting one against the Jets.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals: See? And you thought I was all on the Bengals this week. Well, if you want to go double or nothing on the bar bet you already won on Celek, ask which team allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Believe it or not, it's the St. Louis Rams, who have held Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten and Jermichael Finley, among others, below 40 yards receiving this year. They've given up just one touchdown to an opposing tight end (Witten). Gresham has only one game with at least 70 yards this year, so he needs to score to be start-worthy in most leagues. I don't think he gets in the end zone.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers: Prior to last week, he had two fantasy points in four straight games. He's banged up, the Houston Texans allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Cam Newton recently updated his Facebook status to read "In a relationship with Jeremy Shockey."
Houston Texans D/ST: No Wade Phillips calling the plays this week and the Carolina Panthers have allowed only one fantasy defense to score double-digit points against them. Which would you rather bet on: Cam going off or Cam getting shut down? Exactly. They'll be fine -- it's still a very good defense -- but there is potential for damage against Cam and Steve Smith, so I have them outside my top 10.
Denver Broncos D/ST: Yeah, they've been good. They haven't been stop-Tom Brady good. Don't get cute.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Flex ranks: Gronkowski, Greene rate highly

Eric Karabell

Welcome to Week 15 and the latest flex rankings. In case you've forgotten, in this space we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one extra special holiday package to offer advice for your lineup decisions. There are only a few weeks left, but we'll continue to provide flex rankings the rest of the way, including Week 17!
As always, if you need more specific advice, see if your questions have been answered in recent chat sessions. I'll be chatting Thursday afternoon at 3 p.m. ET. Remember this week there are Thursday and Saturday games, along the normal Sunday and Monday action. Anyway, best of luck in Week 15 and beyond!

1. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans: Should have a monster game in a terrific matchup. Only concern might be his backup should be busy, too.
2. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings: You have to figure he returns this week and there's never reason to worry about his production.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Kind of incredible what he's doing when the team can't throw the ball at all.
5. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks: He kept his touchdown streak alive with a late score Monday night, but they still count the same.
7. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans: He's all or nothing at this point, but I think he's all this week.
8. Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
9. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
10. Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders: I mentioned a month ago that Darren McFadden might not return, and now that looks realistic. We shall see.
11. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: Too good a rank for a tight end? This guy has outscored every wide receiver and all but three running backs this season!
12. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions: I can't help but notice he's been in single-digit fantasy points in four of the past five weeks (in ESPN standard leagues).
13. Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets: I'm nearly sure I've never ranked him this well.
14. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
15. Reggie Bush, RB, Miami Dolphins: And I'm definitely sure I've never ranked him this well, either.
16. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers: Not sure what reason there is not to like him.
17. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers: Don't expect a big increase, if any, in production now that Greg Jennings is out. Others will simply step up.
18. Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys: From reserve to getting to face the league's worst run defense. Nice change in fortunes, eh?
19. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: I really don't think Kevin Kolb is the problem, but I'd rank Fitz well regardless.
20. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
21. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
22. Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints: Some concern that the Saints will use him on fewer snaps to keep him relatively healthy, but no matter, you've gotta use him in fantasy.
23. Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins: Way to go, Mike Shanahan! The shame of it is Helu could have been doing well all season.
24. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
25. Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
26. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers: Tough matchup, and it's been a cold month of games for him.
27. Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Love the matchup, but I just can't fully trust the player.
28. Willis McGahee, RB, Denver Broncos: I do, however, trust this player. Hard to believe.
29. Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints
30. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers
31. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams: You know, this guy deserves better than what's around him.
32. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Drop him 10 spots the other way if Ben Roethlisberger doesn't start. Perhaps that's not enough of a drop, though.
33. Marion Barber, RB, Chicago Bears: Looked pretty good against the Broncos but obviously made a few notable mistakes.
34. Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings: When Christian Ponder gets really good, Harvin could emerge as one of fantasy's best.
35. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Green should be one of fantasy's best next season.
36. Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints
37. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
38. Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
39. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A bit too erratic for most at this point but certainly capable of big numbers.
40. Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins: Who would have thought there would be a sizable difference between Matt Moore and his backup?
41. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
42. C.J. Spiller, RB/WR, Buffalo Bills: He's young, so expect him to be a bit up and down. And whatever you think of his wide receiver eligibility, it's not going away. Enjoy it.
43. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans: Hard to know what he's going to do, but this rank is about the worst rank he's received from me.
44. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans: Expect double-digit carries and the potential for a big game.
45. DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Mr. Happy did show some life last week, so that's nice.
46. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants: Not sure we'll see the old Bradshaw the rest of this season.
47. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys: Definitely not the top option he was a month ago.
48. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Blame Shane Falco! Actually, the schedule hasn't helped Bowe and his teammates. This week it could if trash time comes early, which it should.
49. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys: One catch, eight catches, you never know with him.
50. Laurent Robinson, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Every time Tony Romo looks his way in the end zone, it's a touchdown. That's a fact.
51. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
52. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, New England Patriots: It's precisely when you think he's done that Bill Belichick makes sure he isn't.
53. Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
54. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
55. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
56. Brandon Lloyd, WR, St. Louis Rams: I just would have liked to see how this year's version of Tim Tebow would perform with him in Denver, because Lloyd is good. Sam Bradford isn't doing a thing.
57. Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers
58. Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans: Probably doesn't matter much to him who the quarterback is, but I think it's a shame if the rookie Jake Locker doesn't get a shot
59. Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers: If you watched his recent game, he still didn't show great speed. Definite candidate to step back to mediocrity, even if James Starks sits, which seems likely.
60. Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
61. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
62. Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions: Nobody wants to use him in fantasy, but someone has to run the ball for this team.
63. Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins: Always kind of flies under the radar.
64. Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets
65. James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers: It's basically up to Aaron Rodgers. Jones could go for 150 yards, or 15.
66. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers
67. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos: That's a few games now that he's been relevant.
68. Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers: One has to think he'll be more involved in the passing game this week.
69. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints: If he doesn't play, then just insert Chris Ivory here. Not that either is a great option.
70. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Really not someone to rely on with his injury issues.
71. Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions: Of course, that last line makes sense here as well.
72. Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Jets
73. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
74. Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots: He was productive for a while, but now Gronk isn't sharing.
75. Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants
76. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
77. Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
78. Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants: If the Giants hadn't won the Sunday night game, his epic drop would be a bigger issue.
79. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Maybe if this team had won a game, more people would notice he can play a bit.
80. Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins
81. Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots
82. Kahlil Bell, RB, Chicago Bears: I bet if he got 15 touches, he'd get you double-digit fantasy points.
83. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions
84. Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos
85. Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers: Proving that he's not too old to matter, but you don't really need to rely on him, either.
86. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
87. Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns: Can't blame this on a video game.
88. Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Talented guy and a decent sleeper next season.
89. Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions
90. Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego Chargers
91. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets: Nice to see him help the team as a receiver.
92. Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Why isn't he helping the team as a receiver?
93. Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints
94. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Hopefully he gets a trade, because if he's the running back version of Aaron Rodgers and has to wait years to play, that's not good.
95. Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
96. Jabar Gaffney, WR, Washington Redskins
97. Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans
98. Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
99. Kendall Hunter, RB, San Francisco 49ers
100. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Just missed: Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Kansas City Chiefs; Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears; Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans; Jackie Battle, RB, Kansas City Chiefs; Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland Raiders; Sammy Morris, RB, Dallas Cowboys; Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns; Ricky Williams, RB, Baltimore Ravens.
 

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Kevin's Karma

As we’ve written in this space before, perhaps the most remarkable story of 2011 has been the re-emergence of Kevin Smith.


Coming off three frustrating, injury-marred seasons, the former third-round pick was left unsigned during last summer’s frantic, condensed free agency period. After working out for the Patriots in late August, Smith didn’t receive so much as a text from an interested team until the Lions gave him a token (in the words of coach Jim Schwartz) tryout on November 4. One unexpectedly strong workout and three days later, Smith was back in a Lions uniform.

But even then the Lions expected little from their former feature back. He was installed behind plodders Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams on the depth chart, and generally considered unlikely to last long on the active roster.

Then Week 11 happened. After being used sparingly in Detroit’s embarrassing Week 10 loss to the Bears, Smith was unleashed against the Panthers, ripping off 140 yards and two touchdowns on only 16 carries while adding four catches for 61 yards and another score. It wasn’t just a completely out-of-nowhere eruption, but the best game of Smith’s career.

However, if Act I of Smith’s comeback was literally unbelievable, Act II was far too believable. Like he did so many times during his first three years in the league, Smith followed his big step forward with two steps back, severely spraining his ankle against the Packers on Thanksgiving. Not before racking up 57 yards on only 10 touches, but regardless, there he was on a cart instead of in the huddle.

He tried to gut things out against the Saints in Week 13, but after another productive beginning — 80 yards on 12 touches — he was sent to the locker room early after crumpling to the ground untouched in the third quarter. He was held out in Week 14.

Which brings us to Week 15. With fantasy seasons now officially being won and lost, it’s not the time of year to trifle with lineup decisions. The only thing worse than benching the wrong player is starting someone who ends up not playing. The upside for Smith has proven to be tremendous, and facing a Raiders’ run defense allowing a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry, he has a positively mouthwatering matchup. But can you trust him to play, and stay on the field if he does?

With Oakland/Detroit not kicking off until 4:05PM ET, there’s a decent chance you’ll have to decide to start or sit Smith based on incomplete information. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is confident Smith will be able to play after returning to Lions practice in a limited capacity Thursday, but even if Smith turns in a full session today, there's no guarantee he won't be a game-time decision. And even if the decision is he'll play, it's still possible he'll last only one series. That means that in the most important week of the season, you might be facing your most agonizing call of the year.

What to do? Be practical. If you have the better squad in your semifinal matchup, play things safe. Don’t risk a zero that could be the break your opponent needs. Hold Smith out.

If you’re the underdog, though, be bold. Start the player averaging 6.9 yards per carry against the defense giving up 5.2, and hope he hits you a home run. Even if Smith pulls up lame in pre-game warmups or on Detroit's opening drive, would you really have felt better pinning your upset hopes on a Montario Hardesty flex play? No.

If you’re the favorite, act like it. If you’re the underdog, pull out all the stops. When it comes down to it, what it takes to win in fantasy isn’t all that different from what it takes to win in real life.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
While we don’t know the status of one of fantasy’s most mysterious players, we do know the status of one of its best.

After sitting out the past three weeks, Adrian Peterson will return from his high-ankle sprain against the Saints. Peterson personally assured his fantasy owners as much on Thursday, even though he admits he’s still just “85 percent.”

Facing a solid if unspectacular Saints’ run defense, Peterson’s average 2011 day of 18.6 rushes for 87.2 yards should be well within reach. Rotoworld’s fourth-ranked running back for Week 15, you should not hesitate to start your first-round pick.

FANTASY PLAYOFFS PLUG-AND-PLAYS
Demaryius Thomas
Before Thomas was the hero of Denver’s Week 14 win over the Bears, he was the goat. The second-year receiver committed three ugly drops, two of them critical. But for the second straight week he was also Tim Tebow’s most targeted receiver, and has now managed 11 catches for 222 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games. Facing the league’s worst pass defense in a game that figures to be a shootout, Thomas could be in for a positively monster afternoon, regardless of whether or not Eddie Royal returns from his concussion.

James Jones
With Greg Jennings out against the Chiefs, Jermichael Finley figures to be in for more looks, while Randall Cobb is expected to take the majority of Jennings’ slot routes. No one, however, should pick up more of Jennings’ lost snaps than Jones. Talented enough to be a starter on maybe more than a third of the league’s teams, Jones should be able to take his opportunity and run with it.

Rex Grossman
One week after being a Brandon Banks trick play away from a 300-yard day against the Patriots, Grossman gets a 29th ranked Giants’ pass defense coming off three straight thrashings. It’s unlikely to be pretty, but Grossman could come up huge in your two-QB league.

Chris Ivory
Minnesota’s ninth-ranked run defense is a tough matchup, but likely to function as New Orleans’ short-yardage back for the second straight week in the absence of Mark Ingram, Ivory has a 50-50 chance of finding the end zone. That’s all you can hope for sometimes.

Seneca Wallace
One of the best backups in the NFL, Wallace could be a shrewd fill-in in two-QB leagues against Arizona’s 23rd ranked pass defense. The Cardinals have been defending the pass better of late, but the owner of a respectable career 84.0 quarterback rating and 6.5 YPA, Wallace is a surer bet than the T.J. Yates and John Skeltons of the world.

BIZARRE/ULTIMATELY MEANINGLESS STATS OF THE WEEK
Carson Palmer has thrown three more interceptions than Blaine Gabbert in six fewer appearances.

Darren McFadden still has more yards rushing than James Starks, Jonathan Stewart and Mark Ingram.

Peyton Hillis has five fewer rushing yards than Ricky Williams, and seven fewer than Isaac Redman.

Laurent Robinson has six more yards receiving than DeSean Jackson in one less game.

Santonio Holmes’ 564 receiving yards, good for 56th in the NFL, put him between Darren Sproles and Nate Burleson on the league-leader board.

Jermichael Finley’s 600 receiving yards would make him third amongst tight ends if he were on the Patriots.

If Chad Ochocinco were on the Jaguars, his 228 receiving yards would...still be fifth.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Matt Hasselbeck (calf) was limited in Titans practice Thursday, while Jake Locker (ribs) was a full participant. Respected beat writer Jim Wyatt believes Hasselbeck will ultimately get the call, but it could hinge on what each is able to do this afternoon. … Matt Moore (concussion, neck) returned to practice, and is expected to start against the Bills. … According to OC Bruce Arians, Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) would’ve had "no chance" to start had the Steelers been playing on Thursday. He quickly added, “but I've seen him recover in the past.” Roethlisberger may end up a “game-time decision” Monday, but the odds are high he plays through the pain. … Upgraded to a full practice Thursday, Jeremy Maclin assured fantasy owners “I’m playing, baby.” Very well then. … Mark Ingram (turf toe) missed another practice, and is looking doubtful for Week 15. … Kevin Kolb (concussion) was limited in Cardinals practice, and coach Ken Whisenhunt would not commit to Kolb as his Week 15 starter. You can do better in two-QB leagues. … Montario Hardesty (calf) was downgraded to limited in Browns practice Thursday, but remains on track to split carries with Peyton Hillis against the Cardinals. … Sam Bradford (ankle) missed another practice, putting Kellen Clemens in line to start Sunday. … Denarius Moore (ankle) remains on track to return this week, while Jacoby Ford (foot) and Darren McFadden remain on track to sit.

FOUR PICKS FOR WEEK 15
Big game: Patriots 34, Broncos 23
The fun ends as Tom Brady avoids Von Miller and picks apart Denver’s geriatric, banged up secondary.

Big game II: Steelers 28, 49ers 9
San Francisco’s red-zone woes continue as “game-time decision” Ben Roethlisberger keeps the Steelers in the hunt for a first-round bye.

Upset of the week: Bucs 24, Cowboys 17
Tampa looks nothing like the team that got blown out by the Jaguars as the Cowboys lay their biggest egg yet, turning the light on Jason Garrett’s hot seat from “Pre-Heating” to “Ready.”

The I really don’t have a clue but will pretend I do game: Eagles 27, Jets 10
The Eagles leave their fans thinking “what might have been” as the fighting Rex Ryans dig themselves a huge playoff hole.
 

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Matchups: Aaron's Arrival

You've qualified for the semifinals of your fantasy football league, proving yourself to be a cut above the rest of the field. You don't need me telling you to start Arian Foster against the Panthers, or Aaron Rodgers against the sorry Chiefs. You know Legedu Naanee and Jason Avant are weak options on whom you don't want to rely if you're serious about taking home a title.

In this and next week's Matchups columns, I will focus on the one most fantasy-relevant story for each team in the league. We won't waste words discussing whether to start Cam Newton or sit Thomas Jones. You know better.

Saturday Night Football

Dallas @ Tampa Bay

The collapsing Bucs defense has been trounced for an average of 35 points a game over the last five weeks, including last Sunday's 41-point embarrassment in Jacksonville. The Cowboys won't struggle to pour on points Saturday night. While Felix Jones was one of fantasy's biggest early-season disappointments, he couldn't have asked for a more favorable matchup in his return to Dallas' feature back job following DeMarco Murray's year-ending injury. Over their last seven games, the Bucs have been steamrolled for 1,219 yards and 14 TDs on 236 carries (5.17 YPC). Jones will be an every-down back against Tampa because his lone backup is 34-year-old Sammy Morris, who signed off the street Tuesday. Make room for Jones in your fantasy lineup this week.

The Bucs' offense has fallen off to the point that no player on the roster can be played confidently during fantasy semifinals week. LeGarrette Blount would be the best option, but he's squaring off with Dallas' top-eight run defense in a game Tampa Bay threatens to trail early. It's no secret that Blount is worthless when opponents force the Bucs into comeback mode, and it doesn't help that the 247-pound power back's production has gone in the gutter with 93 yards on his last 30 carries (3.1 YPC). Blount is never a terrible bet for a short touchdown, but he certainly has the look of an underwhelming RB2 Saturday night. The aforementioned Jones would be a more appealing bet.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Bucs 16

1:00PM ET Games

New Orleans @ Minnesota

Mark Ingram is expected to miss one more game with a turf-toe injury. The Saints claim Chris Ivory immediately assumes the short-yardage/power-back role when Ingram sits out, but their usage of Ivory has been different from Ingram's in fantasy terms. Whereas Ingram routinely leads New Orleans in red-zone touches when healthy, Ivory is rarely used in scoring position. Here is the team's red-zone distribution in Ingram's three missed games so far: Darren Sproles 5, Pierre Thomas 4, Ivory 2. Thomas has been the Saints' goal-line back, scoring the club's only two red-zone touchdowns from three and nine yards out. Ivory's two red-zone touches have come outside the opposing ten-yard line. No member of the Saints' backfield is an especially desirable fantasy play against Minnesota's top-nine run defense, but based on precedent Thomas is the best bet for TDs, and Sproles for total yardage. Ivory is most likely to post an empty, 11-carry, 50-yard day.

Some Percy Harvin owners have expressed concern that Adrian Peterson's return might cut into their WR1/2's production. It's certainly true that the Vikings' staff pulled out all possible stops to feature Harvin during Peterson's three-game absence. It's also true that Michael Jenkins' year-ending knee injury moved Harvin into the clear-cut featured role in Minnesota's passing game, playing a greater percentage of snaps and operating as Christian Ponder's first read on the vast majority of pass plays. Beneath a dome in a potentially high-scoring affair, I think you can make a fair argument for Harvin as a legit top-five receiver play in Week 15. He's absolutely a must-start.

Score Prediction: Saints 34, Vikings 24

Washington @ NY Giants

While it's likely to be a long day for Washington's passing game as Rex Grossman plays behind an offensive line minus both starting tackles and its left guard, the Redskins' running game should have success in New York. The Giants' No. 22 run defense is fresh off serving up Felix Jones' best performance (16-106) of the season and will be playing with Justin Tuck (toe) at less than 100 percent. Roy Helu has amassed 390 yards on his last 82 carries (4.76 YPC), and last week became the first back in Redskins history to rush for 100 yards in three straight games. It's a good bet that a fourth is in the offing. Over the last three weeks, no NFC running back has touched the football more than Helu. This is a red-hot runner with tremendous volume in a favorable matchup.

The Giants' Week 14 box score is misleading in that Ahmad Bradshaw was benched for the entire first half after missing curfew. Brandon Jacobs operated as New York's feature back before the G-Men resumed their usual timeshare in the second half. Bradshaw is expected to return to the starting lineup this week and will be a superior fantasy option to Jacobs. When Bradshaw and Jacobs have both entered weeks healthy and avoided in-game injuries and suspensions this season (five-game sample), Bradshaw has averaged 22 touches per game compared to Jacobs' 12. While neither Giants back is an overwhelmingly attractive Week 15 fantasy option, the smart money is on Bradshaw getting more touches and yards versus Washington's No. 17 run defense.

Score Prediction: Giants 24, Redskins 20
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Cincinnati @ St. Louis

Cincinnati's No. 7 defensive ranking and St. Louis' No. 30 mark on offense suggest this will be a low-scoring game, at least for the Rams. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL in sacks, which is going to be problematic for replacement quarterback Kellen Clemens, who's exhibited incredibly shaky pocket presence throughout his six-year career. There's no question that the Rams will struggle to pick up first downs and sustain drives on Sunday. The Bengals' run defense held Arian Foster to 41 yards on 15 rushing attempts in Week 14 and presents a difficult matchup for Steven Jackson. Having managed just 187 yards on his last 62 carries (3.02 YPC), Jackson will be worth benching in favor of a higher-upside option such as Felix Jones or Kevin Smith this weekend.

While A.J. Green is the obvious must-start against St. Louis' talent-deprived secondary, Cedric Benson enters Week 15 as the Bengals' best bet for touchdowns. Essentially a non-factor when facing stout run defenses this season, Benson has instead preyed on the weak. In four matchups with bottom-eight units against the run, CedBen has rolled up three TDs and 388 yards on 81 carries (4.79 YPC). He has 495 yards on 141 attempts (3.51 average) and two scores in his other eight games. 32nd against the run and allowing opponents to average 4.96 yards per carry, the Rams have the poorest defense Benson has faced all year. Consider Benson a rock-solid RB2.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Rams 13

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Early-week indications were that Jake Locker would make his first NFL start, but Matt Hasselbeck quickly saw the writing on the wall. Appearing in four games so far, Locker has averaged a Tom Brady-esque 8.68 yards on 50 pass attempts with four all-purpose touchdowns and no turnovers. Hasselbeck rushed back from his calf injury in time to practice Thursday, and the Titans have promised to keep him in the starting lineup as long as he's healthy. Unfortunately, Hasselbeck has been a drag on Tennessee's offense since early in the season and takes the life out of Nate Washington, Damian Williams, and Jared Cook's fantasy appeal. Barring a pre-game reversal in the quarterback decision making, Chris Johnson is Tennessee's only strong fantasy play in Indy.

The Colts' offense showed its true colors at Baltimore in Week 14, as Dan Orlovsky went 17-for-37, absorbed four sacks, and fumbled three times. No Indianapolis receiver cleared 50 yards. Indy's passing game can't be relied upon against a stout Titans pass defense during fantasy semifinals week, but Donald Brown is worth a look in a flex position after leading Indianapolis' backfield in carries and overall touches for the fifth straight game. Tennessee's defense has struggled against the run recently, allowing Bills, Saints, Bucs, and Falcons backs to pile up 430 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 94 carries (4.57 YPC) over the past month. Brown offers limited upside because he has limited talent, but 14-17 touches are likely in a favorable matchup.

Score Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 14

Seattle @ Chicago

Finally in shape during the final year of his rookie contract, Marshawn Lynch will face his toughest test yet when the Seahawks head to Soldier Field for Sunday's matchup with Chicago's shutdown run defense. Over their last five games, the Bears have permitted just one touchdown and 365 rushing yards on 112 carries (3.26 YPC) to opposing tailbacks. Chicago hasn't done it against chump opponents, either, holding in check Michael Bush, Ryan Mathews, and Willis McGahee during the dominant stretch. Lynch is a top-five fantasy running back on the season, but he threatens to finish on a disappointing note against the Bears and 49ers in Weeks 15 and 16. I suspect Lynch will struggle to generate top-20 running back stats in the last two fantasy weeks.

No Week 15 game has a lower over/under than Seattle-Chicago, and Vegas' 35.5-point projection may even be optimistic. This is a matchup to avoid where possible because it won't produce many points or yards. While much was made of Marion Barber's late-game mental errors in last week's collapse at Denver, fantasy owners should be more concerned in Week 15 with the presence of Kahlil Bell and Seattle's stout front seven. Bell already plays in all passing sets and is an oft-used change-of-pace back on early downs. More often than not, Bell appeared to be the Bears' best tailback option in Week 14. The Seahawks rank 11th against the run. Chicago's backfield offers a limited statistical ceiling this week, and both Barber and Bell would ideally be left on benches.

Score Prediction: Bears 17, Seahawks 13

Green Bay @ Kansas City

Greg Jennings' torn MCL will end his fantasy season and leave behind a powder keg of targets for Green Bay's healthy pass catchers. Jennings' 99 targets easily led the Packers through the first 14 weeks, with Jordy Nelson (69) and Jermichael Finley (68) ranking a distant second and third. James Jones and rookie Randall Cobb will see the largest bumps in playing time, as Jones joins the starting lineup and Cobb now plays in the majority of passing situations. Arguably Green Bay's best run-after-catch receiver already, Jones will be a strong WR3 play the rest of the way. The same can be said for Cobb in return-yardage leagues. Despite his Week 14 clunker, Finley will be a top-five Week 15 tight end play with more footballs likely to come his way and the potential to emerge as Green Bay's featured player in the passing game. As for Finley's matchup this week, it's notable that Kansas City has allowed the second most touchdowns in the league to tight ends.

Early deficits and cornerback cushions have something to do with it, but there's no question that Dwayne Bowe has earned an every-week start during the fantasy playoffs. Only four players in the league have been targeted more this season. Playing lights out in his contract year, Bowe's outlook is also improved by interim coach Romeo Crennel's installation of Kyle Orton after the Chiefs suffered through four dead-duck starts under Tyler Palko. Orton has now spent over three weeks in Kansas City's system and is a significantly sharper pocket passer than his predecessor. Bowe is the lone worthwhile fantasy option on the Chiefs, but should be played with confidence.

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Chiefs 20
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Carolina @ Houston

Ben Tate is always a dicey flex option because he needs big leads for worthwhile workloads and satisfactory yardage. While the Panthers have shown the ability to score consistently and stay competitive even when they lose (six of Carolina's nine losses are by eight points or fewer), they are also 23rd against the run, allow over 4.5 yards a carry, and have permitted an average of more than one rushing score per game. The matchup is obviously inviting. The game's outcome is among this week's least predictable. While Tate offers 12-15 carry, 90-110 yard potential, he also presents significant risk. I'd consider him over someone appearing to be short on Week 15 upside like C.J. Spiller or Marion Barber. Fantasy owners just need to be aware that Tate is a gamble.

Appearing on Yahoo's Shutdown Corner podcast this week, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell deemed Houston's Johnathan Joseph the second best press-man cornerback in the league, behind only Darrelle Revis. Joseph has flashed the ability to take No. 1 receivers out of games without safety help over the top. The relatively bad news for Carolina's Steve Smith is that he has a difficult one-on-one Week 15 matchup. The good news is that this might be Smith's best opportunity all year to avoid double teams because of the Texans' confidence in Joseph's man-coverage skills. During the fantasy semifinals, I'd find it awfully difficult to bench the NFC's leader in receiving yardage.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Panthers 21

Miami @ Buffalo

Reggie Bush is the Dolphins' feature back and rookie Daniel Thomas is his change of pace, and those notions couldn't have been reinforced to a greater degree than they were during last week's loss to Philadelphia. Sprinkled in intermittently on early-game possessions, Thomas became an almost complete non-factor as Miami's deficit grew in the 26-10 loss. The touch distribution was 10:2 in Bush's favor from the middle of the third quarter on. Bush piled up 130 yards on 14 carries and five catches, while Thomas managed 13 yards on his nine opportunities to get the football. Thomas is off the radar as a potential Week 15 fantasy play. As Bush squares off with Buffalo's 25th-ranked run defense, he'll be a top-15 running back option with a slight boost in PPR formats.

I've touched on the topic enough in this space that you already know if you read these Matchups columns, but Miami's defense is incredibly difficult to run against. LeSean McCoy has consistently been the best running back in football this season, yet the Dolphins still held him to 38 yards on 27 attempts in Week 14. Now ranked third versus the run, the Fins have allowed 592 yards on 192 carries (3.08 YPC) to opposing tailbacks over their past nine games. McCoy is the only back who's scored against them during that span. Regressing since a respectable start as Buffalo's top back, C.J. Spiller will struggle to find running room and is best left on fantasy benches this week.

Score Prediction: Bills 17, Dolphins 13

4:05PM ET Game

Detroit @ Oakland

The Raiders' run defense has been bad for most of the year, but it's hit rock bottom over the past six games. Dating back to its Week 9 bye, Oakland has silver-plattered 738 yards on 133 carries (5.55 YPC) to opposing tailbacks, along with five rushing touchdowns. While it's reasonable to be somewhat concerned with Kevin Smith's ankle, the facts that he has impressed in practice and is now 14 days removed from his last game appearance should instill some confidence. The cake-walk matchup makes Smith a prime RB2 for fantasy owners in pursuit of Week 15 upside. Smith has been the Lions' every-down back when healthy, so even in the unlikely event he struggles on the ground, Smith can compensate with receiving production. I'd be excited about playing him. The Lions’ offense won’t struggle for ball movement Sunday, setting up scoring opportunities for Smith.

While Oakland's offense is still scuffling to get healthy at the skill positions, the Lions' defense is almost all the way back to full strength. Difference-making inside rusher Ndamukong Suh has returned from suspension and makes everyone around him more effective. LCB Chris Houston (knee) practiced all week and should play in Oakland. Denarius Moore's return from an ankle/foot injury can't hurt, but Carson Palmer is going to be under heavy duress Sunday and is playing too poorly to be trusted in standard fantasy leagues. Here are Palmer's stats from his last three games: 65-of-120 (54.2%) for 821 yards (6.84 YPA), three touchdowns, and six interceptions. All three games were against defenses ranked 25th or worse against the pass. The Lions rank ninth.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Raiders 20

4:15PM ET Games

Cleveland @ Arizona

When NT Dan Williams went out for the season with two fractures in his left arm in Week 11, I expected Arizona's run defense to experience a drop-off. It hasn't happened. The Cardinals have inserted 6-foot-3, 305-pound former Steelers reserve Nick Eason at nose tackle and suddenly have one of the league's most improved defenses. Since Williams' injury, Arizona has held the previously hot running games of Dallas, San Francisco, and St. Louis to a combined 258 yards on 63 carries (4.09 YPC) over the last three weeks. The Cards have allowed just one rushing score during that span. Peyton Hillis is off the Week 15 injury report and expected to start, but I worry about Cleveland generating ball movement against an underrated defense with Seneca Wallace at quarterback. Hillis may also lose touches to Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya. Hillis isn't a terrible flex option, but he's also probably not a great bet to steer you toward a fantasy title.

Beanie Wells has predictably struggled in terms of yards per carry during back-to-back matchups with the Cowboys and 49ers' stout run defenses. This week should get Wells' per-play stats back on track. In their last seven games, the Browns have been roughed up for 1,170 yards and seven touchdowns on 222 rushing attempts (5.27 YPC) by opposing tailbacks. It's an average of over 167 rushing yards and one rushing score per game. Wells' fantasy owners need to shake off his recent sluggish performances and get Beanie into Week 15 lineups. This should be an easy one.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Browns 13
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NY Jets @ Philadelphia

We've touched on it in this space the past two weeks, and coach Rex Ryan discussed it in his Wednesday presser: Shonn Greene has turned his season around. While Greene is never going to be a dynamic NFL runner, he's certainly capable of swallowing up every blocked yard and possesses enough leg drive to carry linebackers and defensive backs after contact. Greene has done that since midseason, amassing 583 yards and four scores on his last 118 carries (4.94 YPC). Perhaps most promising for Greene's value has been his expanded role in the passing game, hauling in three receptions in each of the past three games even with usual passing-down specialists LaDainian Tomlinson and/or Joe McKnight in the lineup. Greene will give a smallish Eagles front seven matchup fits because it's been built to get up field and rush the passer, not plug the run. Over the past two weeks, Philadelphia has allowed 269 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 51 carries (5.27 YPC) to enemy tailbacks. Greene is a rock-solid RB2 and rising.

The Eagles' offensive line was shredded by the Dolphins in Week 14, serving up four sacks and six hits on Michael Vick. Vick conceded this week that his previously cracked ribs still aren't 100 percent, and top receiver Jeremy Maclin's hamstring obviously isn't after it tightened up during last week's second-half break in action, rendering Maclin a non-factor for the final two quarters (0 targets). DeSean Jackson plays when he wants to play. Now facing the league's sixth-ranked pass defense, a unit that has allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns in football, Vick is difficult to support as a QB1. Here are some borderline quarterbacks I'd play over Vick in Week 15: Tim Tebow, Ben Roethlisberger (if he starts), Jake Locker (if he starts), and Christian Ponder.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Eagles 17

New England @ Denver

The Broncos left 120 passing yards and a 55-yard scoring bomb on the field last week due to five blatant drops. Two more of Tim Tebow's throws should have been caught by Matt Willis and Eric Decker. Had Denver converted the most glaring receiver miscues, we would have spent the past week discussing Tebow's first career 350-yard, two-touchdown day and whether to consider him a top-five fantasy quarterback in Week 15. Against the Bears, Denver's coaching staff openly acknowledged that the shotgun-spread is the best way for the offense to create ball movement. 31 of the Broncos' final 33 offensive plays came in the 'gun with three or more wideouts, and they stuck with the wide-open, aggressive formations into and through overtime rather than resuming the usual arch-conservative, ball-control mentality. Be it due to an early deficit or more cognizant game plan from John Fox & Co., I expect Tebow's shackles to be removed in Denver's biggest game to date. The receivers are sure to be open against New England's incompetent defensive backs, and I'd feel very good about Tebow as a standard-league fantasy starter in this matchup. The Broncos are going to need to score points to be competitive in this game.

Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Wes Welker are obvious every-week starters, but this game sets up particularly well for Aaron Hernandez to break out. One of Welker and Gronk is likely to get the Champ Bailey treatment -- we won't know which until kickoff -- and Deion Branch (groin) is in danger of missing Sunday's game. Hernandez will be the heavy favorite for targets outside the numbers. And make no mistake: Hernandez is a wideout, not a tight end, in that he rarely lines up on the line of scrimmage. Offenses have routinely picked on Broncos RCB Andre' Goodman this season, and Hernandez figures to be in his and rookie FS Quinton Carter's coverage for most of the day. Hitting his stride since a midseason knee injury, Hernandez has five-plus receptions in three straight weeks. I like his chances of leading New England in catches and yards in Week 15.

Score Prediction: Patriots 35, Broncos 30

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore @ San Diego

Philip Rivers is playing better football late in the season, as Gregg Rosenthal noted in this week's Rankings column. I just wouldn't bet he'll do well against the Ravens. Be aware that Rivers' back-to-back season-best games came against Jacksonville and Buffalo defenses that rank 23rd and 32nd in sacks, essentially giving San Diego's injury-depleted offensive line a free pass. Both the Jags and Bills played without at least two starters in the secondary. San Diego's front five and its quarterback will be in for a much longer day against a Ravens unit that leads the league in sacks and fields a top-five pass defense. Whereas I was excited about Rivers and his receivers in Week 14, the opposite can be said this Sunday. The Chargers are unlikely to score many points.

Anquan Boldin is slowing down late in the season for a second straight year, managing a 42-yard average in his last five games after averaging over 78 yards in the initial eight. The Chargers are well equipped to keep Boldin in check after the catch with big, physical cornerbacks (Antoine Cason 6'1/195, Quentin Jammer 6'0/204). Per Pro Football Focus, Jammer and Cason have combined to miss just 12 tackles all season. They've made 85 collectively. Ranked 26th among receivers in fantasy scoring, Boldin is just a low-end WR3 in this matchup. San Diego's secondary does struggle with smaller, quicker outside receivers (see Denarius Moore 5-123-2, Deion Branch 8-129, Johnny Knox 3-97-1), so perhaps rookie Torrey Smith is worth a look for deep leaguers.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Chargers 17

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco

This game pits the NFL's No. 2 defense (Steelers) against No. 4 (49ers), and both offenses are dealing with key skill-position injuries. Ben Roethlisberger (high ankle sprain) is a game-time decision. Whether the Niners admit it or not, Frank Gore (knee, shoulder, ankle) isn't at full health. I think it's safe to expect a low-scoring game ala San Francisco's 16-6 loss to Baltimore in Week 12, and Gore's limited recent workloads are working against him in addition to Pittsburgh's shutdown run defense. "He's got some things," explained coach Jim Harbaugh, referring to Gore's injuries this week. "He's not 100%. And we have other backs." Over its last six games, the Steelers' defense has permitted one score and 481 yards on 151 rushing attempts (3.18 YPC). Due to matchup, health, and workload concerns, I’d feel comfortable benching Gore in favor of higher-upside options on Saturday and Sunday.

I think the smart money is still on Big Ben starting Monday night, but several plugged-in national reporters are on the record predicting that he won't play. Hopefully, we'll have more updates and a better read on his status prior to the weekend. While both Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace would have favorable fantasy outlooks in the event Roethlisberger starts, they'll be much less desirable should 37-year-old Charlie Batch get the nod. The 49ers' weakness is in the secondary, but Batch would be considerably less likely to keep the sticks moving and hit big plays than Big Ben. The best advice I can give is to keep a close eye on this situation. Rotoworld will be monitoring closely.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, 49ers 10
 

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Week 15 Injury Questions

It’s winning time. Some people will tell you to “dance with the girl” that brought you to the playoffs. That is not optimal.

Just like we’ve been doing all year, we need to set our lineups based on the best play for this week, and this week alone. Just because Frank Gore carried you midway through the season doesn’t mean you need to play him this week. Antonio Brown is a big reason you’re in the playoffs, but he’s extremely risky if Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) doesn’t start.

As we get set for Week 15, we’ll have our eye out for the best options in a vacuum.

Of course, the Rotoworld News Page will be humming all Sunday morning to bring you official word on all your injured players ahead of kickoff. And to make sure you’re prepared, read every word of these rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Weaseling in combination Evan Silva’s mind-blowing Matchup Column.

If you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft here.

OK, let’s get to the hurt folks:

SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
COWBOYS at BUCS
* Laurent Robinson will play through his shoulder injury as the Cowboys’ No. 3 wideout once again.
* Arrelious Benn (concussion) is out. Dezmon Briscoe gets the start.

SUNDAY 1PM GAMES
BENGALS at RAMS
* Cedric Benson (back) is a full go for this dream matchup.
* Sam Bradford (ankle) and A.J. Feeley (thumb) are not expected to be active. Kelllen Clemens will start.

DOLPHINS at BILLS
* Anthony Fasano (ribs) is fine. So is his quarterback, Matt Moore (concussion, neck).
* Scott Chandler (ankle) is out. Blocker Lee Smith gets the nod.

TITANS at COLTS
* Matt Hasselbeck (calf) is expected to draw the start, leaving the intriguing Jake Locker on the bench.
* Javon Ringer (hand) is out. Jamie Harper will back up Chris Johnson.
* Nate Washington (ankle) is ready to go after returning to a full practice on Friday.
* Dallas Clark (neck) is not expected to play. Jacob Tamme is back in once again.

REDSKINS at GIANTS
* Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) is ready to go. Last week’s suspension is in the rearview mirror.

SEAHAWKS at BEARS
* Matt Forte (knee) and Jay Cutler (thumb) remain sidelined.

SAINTS at VIKINGS
* Jimmy Graham (back) practiced in full all week. He must be in all lineups.
* Adrian Peterson (ankle) will start. Although coach Leslie Frazier says he’ll be cautious with Peterson, it’s impossible to bench him. Peterson says he’s around 85 percent.
* Mark Ingram (toe) remains out. Chris Ivory will function as the power back again.
* Christian Ponder (hip) is a full go after last week’s benching.

PANTHERS at TEXANS
* Andre Johnson (hamstring) remains out. He probably won’t be back until Week 17 at the earliest. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones will start as weak fantasy plays.
* Greg Olsen (back) is fine but just a TE2 in this brutal matchup.

PACKERS at CHIEFS
* Greg Jennings (knee) is out. We’re expecting James Jones to see the biggest boost in production, along with Jermichael Finley.
* James Starks (ankle) is a game-time call. He wants to play, but the 13-0 Packers may err on the side of caution. Meanwhile, Brandon Saine (concussion) is not expected to play. Ryan Grant and John Kuhn are the only healthy backs here.
* Kyle Orton (finger) will start, mercifully sending Tyler Palko back to the bench.

SUNDAY 4PM GAMES
LIONS at RAIDERS
* Kevin Smith (ankle) is expected to start. Barring another aggravation, we’d expect a workhorse role ahead of inept backups Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams.
* Darren McFadden (foot) remains out.
* Denarius Moore (ankle) returns as a WR3 option. He’s expected to start, but not return punts.
* Jacoby Ford (foot) is still out, leaving Darrius Heyward-Bey as the starter again. Chaz Schilens will be the No. 3 receiver.

JETS at EAGLES
* Joe McKnight (elbow) is expected to play as the No. 3 back and return man.
* Jeremy Maclin (hamstring) will play, but has a tough matchup and aggravated his injury last week. There’s a lot of risk here.
* Michael Vick (ribs) is fine despite some missed practice time.

BROWNS at CARDINALS
* Colt McCoy (concussion) is out. Seneca Wallace will start.
* Ben Watson (concussion) is done for the year, putting Evan Moore on the radar as a desperation tight end play.
* Montario Hardesty (calf) is expected to be available as Peyton Hillis’ backup.
* Kevin Kolb (concussion( is not expected to play. John Skelton gets the nod.

PATRIOTS at BRONCOS
* Deion Branch (groin) is looking like a game-time call. We can do better at the WR3 spot.
* Wes Welker (knee) and Danny Woodhead (abdomen) will be fine despite questionable tags.
* Eddie Royal (concussion) will return, but it’s unclear if he’ll get his starting job back. Demaryius Thomas has at least earned a majority of the snaps.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
RAVENS at CHARGERS
* Billy Cundiff (calf) will kick, barring a setback.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
STEELERS at 49ERS
* Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) got back in a limited practice Friday. He’s a true game-time call, with Charlie Batch at the ready. Based on history, we suspect Big Ben will play.
* Emmanuel Sanders (foot) is not expected to be active.
* Frank Gore isn’t on the injury report, but the Niners admitted he was at less than 100 percent. There’s a lot of risk here, especially given the matchup.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
If you’ve made it this far, you’re staring at a tough week. Despite being on the road in Kansas City, the Packers the most likely winner.

I’d also recommend another road play in the Bengals. Kellen Clemens has little chance of moving that offense. Some spots I’d avoid include the Titans, as the Colts feel close to jumping up and biting someone. The Saints are also a risky play as they are on back-to-back road games.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
It’s semifinal week in my 10-team, non-PPR league with bloated starting rosters. My flex spot came down to Frank Gore, Santonio Holmes or Laurent Robinson.

Normally, this would be a no-brainer for Gore. But he got just 10 touches last week as the 49ers admitted he’s playing nicked up. They are trying to preserve their best runner for the playoffs. And now he faces a red-hot Steelers defense that is giving up just 3.18 yards per carry over its last six games. I tried to sell Gore earlier a month ago, and this is why. Matchups matter.

So, the decision comes down to either Robinson or Holmes. Despite playing as the clear No. 3 receiver last week, Robinson racked up 137 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Holmes continues to be an afterthought in the offense despite massive talent. He’s averaging just 6.6 targets per game, less than guys like Jabar Gaffney, Eric Decker and Brandon Pettigrew.

I’ve decided to roll with Robinson.
 

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Grossman, Mathews among best bets

How to handle Giants RBs, Packers WRs, resurgent Marshawn Lynch


By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Five In Depth

This week I'm devoting this column to 10 players about whom my opinion seems to vary compared to the rest of the ESPN.com rankers. You'll notice a pattern in the reasons for my differences throughout this list: I'm relying on the Strength of Schedule metric that I discussed in last week's Hard Count. Often I'll meditate on areas where I think the recent statistics don't back up conventional wisdom, and I'll try and figure out why. And sometimes I'll just go ahead and violate my own logic.


1. The Washington Redskins passing game deserves love. For all the endless media hype about how bad the New England Patriots pass defense is (remember how your humble scribe referred to the Pats as the "Phoenix Suns of the NFL" way back in Week 2?), Rex Grossman "only" managed 14 fantasy points against them last week. The average QB typically nets 14.2 in a given week. So why give Grossman the nod as a possible substitute for, say, Matt Schaub owners in their fantasy playoffs?


Because the New York Giants have actually been an even better foe for opposing QBs over the past five weeks:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Week </TH><TH>Opponent </TH><TH>QB fantasy points allowed </TH><TH>Amount above/below
opponent's 5-week average </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>49ers </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>2.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11 </TD><TD>Eagles </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>0.2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12 </TD><TD>Saints </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13 </TD><TD>Packers </TD><TD>31 </TD><TD>5.8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14 </TD><TD>Cowboys </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>7.8 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Allowing 5.4 fantasy points above average to opposing QBs is worst in the NFL over the past five weeks, worse even than New England's 4.2. (The Carolina Panthers (4.9) and New Orleans Saints (4.3) are also worse than the Patriots in that span.) Jason Pierre-Paul played great against the Dallas Cowboys, but Justin Tuck's toe injury has rendered him a shell of himself, Osi Umenyiora isn't likely to play any time soon, Kenny Phillips has a lingering knee issue, Michael Boley has a hammy, and the secondary is struggling. Grossman is the best fantasy QB option this week of anyone owned in fewer than half of ESPN leagues (he's only owned in 10.3 percent of leagues). And for similar reasons, Jabar Gaffney is an acceptable emergency No. 3 wideout.


2. Ranking Brandon Jacobs ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw. Speaking of the Giants, I was the only ranker to place Big Jake ahead of his more talented backfield compadre. Do I feel good about it? I most decidedly do not. Bradshaw is a favored player of mine, and Jacobs is somebody I go on TV and describe as a "dog" with great regularity. But watching the tape of Giants/Packers from Week 12 and Giants/Cowboys from Week 13, I was left with the conclusion that the big man is playing better than the little man since Bradshaw's return, and the numbers back that up:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player </TH><TH>Carries </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>Catches </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Jacobs </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>160 </TD><TD>0 </TD><TD>0 </TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bradshaw </TD><TD>19 </TD><TD>50 </TD><TD>3 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Yes, of course, I'm aware that Bradshaw was benched for the first half of the Dallas game for missing a curfew; in the second half, Bradshaw outcarried Jacobs 8-6. All three of Jacobs' TDs these past couple of games have come from an opponent's 1, which is heartening in that it seems to mean that he's clearly the short-yardage option. But of course, if you don't happen to get the ball at the 1, what good does that do you?


I think the bottom line, though, is that this looks like a completely split gig. Bradshaw doesn't appear to have the workload advantage he had at the season's outset, probably because the Giants are leery of putting too much stress on his broken foot. And the simple fact is that Jacobs has been the superior player, even if we discount that missed half last Sunday night (omitting those two quarters, Jacobs is still out-averaging Bradshaw, 7.0 to 2.6 yards per carry). The Redskins defense is a slightly negative matchup for opposing RBs, so I don't consider either of these New York rushers must-starts. I rated Jacobs 24th and Bradshaw 28th, making them flexes at best. But for one week, I like Jacobs better.


3. Back aboard the Kevin Smith bandwagon. I'm surprised how quickly everyone seems to be giving up on Smith as a borderline must-start. Well, maybe I'm not surprised. Between him and James Starks, we've seen a couple of "surprise actives" followed almost immediately by "out for the rest of the game" because of continued ankle problems. But Smith is a leap of faith I believe I'm willing to make for Week 15. The Detroit Lions were smart in holding him out versus the Minnesota Vikings, despite the fact that if it had been up to Smith, he'd probably have played. His ankle is reportedly better for the inactivity, and he's expected to start against the Oakland Raiders this week.

Watching the Raiders get eaten up by Reggie Bush and Ryan Grant the past two weeks gives me confidence that Smith can take advantage of this matchup. And the fact that Maurice Morris was greatly limited himself in Week 14 because of a chest injury leads me to believe we could be looking at a similar situation to the Carolina Panthers game back in Week 11, when Smith saw 20 touches from scrimmage compared to eight for Morris.


Frankly, Smith is simply a better player than Morris, is seven years younger, is smarter about setting up blocks (especially on interior runs), and has more power and equal speed. There's a reason that Morris has never exceeded 161 carries in a season, and that he's never had more than 100 in his three years with Detroit. (By contrast, Smith has two years of 217-plus carries.) Keep your ear to the ground this weekend about updates to Smith's ankle, but right now, I think he's a pretty nice start.


4. I heart Miami. Actually, I've never been to the Magic City, though my sister lived there for like nine months. And I know the Miami Dolphins just fired their head coach. But that's no reason not to ride their defense. Heck, the fact that Todd Bowles takes over as interim head coach might be a good thing. Bowles has been assistant head coach and secondary coach this year, and he and Mike Nolan have done a terrific job bolstering a unit that gave up those infamous 517 passing yards against Tom Brady back in Week 1.

The Dolphins D has scored an average of 11.8 fantasy points per game over the past five weeks, which is behind only the Chicago Bears (13.8), Seattle Seahawks (13.2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (13.0). One of those games, back in Week 11, was against this same floundering Buffalo Bills offense, and the Fish racked up two turnovers, two sacks, eight scoreboard points allowed and a blocked punt returned for a TD in a 35-8 win. What do we think has changed in Buffalo since then? In the past five games, the Bills offense has allowed opposing defenses to score an average of 13 fantasy points, which is tied for fourth-most in that span. A coaching change in Miami suddenly means Ryan Fitzpatrick will stop being a bad football player? I'm not so sure.


The Philadelphia Eagles may have won in Miami 24-6 last week, putting the final nail in Tony Sparano's head coaching career, but they gained only 239 total yards from scrimmage, allowed four sacks, and got supremely good field position on back-to-back-to-back first-half possessions as the Dolphins offense turned it over deep in its own territory three straight times. That was a pretty big surprise from a Miami offense that had turned it over just three times in its five previous games. I know Matt Moore had to leave last week's game because of a concussion, but as of this writing, it sounded like he'd be able to play in this game, and the Bills D certainly doesn't strike one as being likely to generate a ton of field-position-switching turnovers right now.


This Dolphins D has produced at least nine fantasy points in five of its past six games; the average fantasy D scores 6.8 per week. I'm sticking with them, and they're unowned in 95 percent of ESPN leagues. For similar reasons, I think our composite ranks are too high on Steve Johnson and C.J. Spiller; the Dolphins D is a bottom-five matchup for opposing RBs and WRs over the past five weeks.


5. Will James Jones pick up for Greg Jennings? The Kansas City Chiefs actually represent a bad matchup for the Green Bay Packers passing game. Specifically, they've been by far the toughest unit for opposing WRs to score fantasy points against over the past five weeks. Part of that, of course, is that they've been among the five easiest teams for fantasy RBs to score against (witness Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson last week), but part also is Tamba Hali rushing the passer well, and part is one of the most underrated pair of corners in the league, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. That said, nobody in their right mind thinks the Aaron Rodgers Express is getting derailed Sunday in Kansas City.


With Jennings out, Jordy Nelson rises to the level of a No. 1 wideout and gets the attendant praise and attention that position entails. He'll see the rolling-over safeties usually reserved for Jennings. And logic dictates that Jermichael Finley, who was shut out in last week's passing romp over the Raiders (though he did nearly catch a 4-yard fade in the end zone), is likely to see an uptick in targets. But even if Nelson and Finley each get double-digit targets, there's still enough work left over for someone else to benefit. (After all, Rodgers averages nearly 34 pass attempts per game.) Here's how the workload for Rodgers' ancillary receivers has looked over the past five contests:


<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player </TH><TH>Targets </TH><TH>Catches </TH><TH>Yards </TH><TH>TDs </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Donald Driver </TD><TD>21 </TD><TD>16 </TD><TD>232 </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>James Jones </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>132 </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Randall Cobb </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>113 </TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



So while Jones has five TDs on the season, Driver has gotten substantially more work of late. That's a pretty strong argument that Driver is at least even with the younger, sprier Jones moving forward, and it sets up a situation where no Packers receiver other than Nelson is a must-start. The Pack plays in three- and four-wide sets a vast majority of the time, so now there's little doubt that these two players will be on the field most of the time (and Cobb will be out there a ton, too). Someone is likely to emerge as a great upset fantasy play this week. I wish I could tell you who.


Five In Brief



6. Pardon me for not loving Jake Locker. It's ironic that I ranked Locker lower than my ESPN compadres, considering I was probably higher on him in April's draft than just about anyone. I liked that the Tennessee Titans "reached" to grab him with the No. 8 overall pick, and I think the accuracy problems that dogged him in college might in fact eventually be fixed. But the dude has 50 big-league attempts and has completed 23 of them. Let's just say he hasn't fixed the accuracy concerns quite yet. Set aside the fact that Matt Hasselbeck might actually be OK to play (he injured a calf last week). Even if Locker is in there, I'm not wild about the Titans passing game. Chris Johnson? I even have a moment's hesitation with him, considering in a "dream" matchup against the Indianapolis Colts back in Week 8, he had 14 carries for 34 yards. But CJ1K has taken advantage of good matchups in better fashion lately, and the Colts still struggle to stop the run. Against the pass, though, this Indy D isn't as bad as you think. In my five-week ratings, they're actually tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the No. 12 spot in preventing the average opposing QB from scoring fantasy points. Given Nate Washington's ongoing ankle issues and a conservative offensive game plan, I think it's reaching to start any Titans passing-game member in a standard league's playoffs.

7. Allow me to embarrass myself over Marshawn Lynch again. A month or so ago, I expressed skepticism that Lynch would keep this up. He'd lost the entire right side of his offensive line, and hadn't really produced against strong run defenses. Well, color me wrong. Lynch has obviously been one of the biggest fantasy stories of the season's second half, exploding with six consecutive games of at least 14 fantasy points, a run that makes him the No. 2 fantasy RB over that time, behind only Maurice Jones-Drew. And yet. I still ranked Lynch No. 15 this week, while my ESPN cohorts put him between sixth and 12th. I'm not doubting Lynch's surrounding cast any longer. I just find this to be a very, very difficult matchup. The Chicago Bears D has been a brick wall against the running game; I have it as the No. 3 defense you'd least like your fantasy RB to face right now, behind only the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons. As much as I think he's sometimes overhyped, Brian Urlacher played a spectacular game against the Denver Broncos last week, and the red-hot Willis McGahee cooled to the tune of 34 yards on 17 carries. Beast Mode is still very startable, even in my disbelieving eyes. But I have him low enough in my ranks that I don't think he's a no-brainer.


8. Ryan Mathews, on the other hand … I'm alone considering Mathews a top-five back. The evidence is strong on the other side of that argument; Mathews has Mike Tolbert as a goal-line vulture (Mathews himself even knows that lingo) and is facing the legendarily indomitable Ravens D. It's true that Baltimore has cracked down on opposing RBs over the past three weeks, but only in one case (Frank Gore) do I find that impressive. Limiting Chris Ogbonnaya and Donald Brown? I can't hand out gold stars for that. In Weeks 11 and 12, Marshawn Lynch and Cedric Benson racked up big fantasy points against Baltimore, and going back farther than that, Beanie Wells and Rashard Mendenhall were also strong. In short, I'm not sold this is a super-elite rush D, and I also get a feeling this San Diego Chargers/Baltimore Ravens game might be a shootout. The Ravens have made a habit of giving up around five receptions to opposing backs each week, and Mathews is a top-10 fantasy back coming off three straight double-digit fantasy days. I'm not sitting him.


9. Will the Detroit Lions defense follow up with another biggie? I know first-hand how not fun it was to face the Detroit D/ST last week; they forced six turnovers, produced two defensive TDs and four sacks, and scored 24 fantasy points in ESPN standard leagues. So why don't I rate them a top-10 play this week against Carson Palmer and the woebegone Raiders offense? Well, look at the four games before they played the Vikings in Week 14. They scored 3, 3, 2 and -2 fantasy points against the Bears, Panthers, Packers and Saints. Granted, Green Bay and New Orleans are several weight classes above the Raiders, but seeing this defense produce nine games of seven fantasy points or fewer this season doesn't inspire faith. I know Ndamukong Suh will return from his suspension, but frankly, his tendency to race upfield looking at the QB was a big part of this defense's problems against the run. Michael Bush isn't the guy you want to face when you have a tough time tackling. I'm not reaching in expecting recent Lions D/ST history to repeat itself.

10. Megatron. Speaking of the Lions, let's end on a curious note, and one where my ESPN co-rankers and I are actually in lockstep. We continue to make Calvin Johnson a top-three fantasy receiver, despite his abysmal (for him) performance over the past five games. When Megatron was still getting double-digit targets, we could forgive a couple subpar outings. But when Matthew Stafford only throws it Johnson's way four times, as he did in a high-scoring win over the Vikings last week? That's truly ugly. And yet. I guess it comes down to personal philosophy, and perhaps this is instructional in any case where you feel tempted to bench your highly drafted "stud" in your fantasy playoffs. If I bench Calvin Johnson against the Raiders this week, and he goes back to his first-half pace (you know, something like five catches for 130 yards and a TD), I simply wouldn't be able to live with myself. If I use him and he falters again? Well, I'll be disappointed, no doubt, and even more so if I had left (for example) Demaryius Thomas on my bench and Thomas goes off. But I'll be able to sleep at night. Maybe that's my litmus test. If the player is so talented and has such a strong track record that I'd lose my mind if I benched him and he produced big? Probably best to just play him and take your lumps.
 

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Injuries: McGahee's Malady

Week 15 appears to have passed without any major injuries to top-tier fantasy players, but Willis McGahee, A.J. Green and Stevie Johnson were among the notable names who checked into the infirmary. Here’s a breakdown of Sunday’s key injuries:

Willis McGahee (7 rush, 70 yds) got off to a fast start, but got just two carries in the second half while dealing with a leg injury. CBSSports.com reports that the injury is to McGahee’s hamstring, and as of Sunday night the severity of said injury was unclear (though we should get an update at John Fox’s press conference on Monday). In the meantime, Lance Ball (13 touches, 105 yds, TD, lost fumble) is positioned as a must-add off waivers if McGahee begins to look like he could be iffy against the Bills. (Monday update: John Fox suggested -- per beat writer Andrew Mason -- that McGahee's absence was more because the Broncos were trailing the Patriots rather than being the result of a significant injury. It sounds like McGahee should be okay for Week 16.)

A.J. Green (6 rec, 115 yds) has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 sprain of his right shoulder, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. However, despite clearly being affected by the injury on Sunday, the rookie called it “nothing serious,” and said “I’m definitely not going to miss these last two games for nothing.” That attitude has to sound pretty encouraging to fantasy owners, and hopefully Green’s lack of concern will be validated when practices resume this week.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Stevie Johnson (5 rec, 82 yds) left in the fourth quarter with what’s being called an aggravation of a minor groin injury, and an update on his status won’t be available until Tuesday (per the Associated Press). Johnson has been fairly gritty in terms of playing through injuries this season, so hopefully this one won’t be any different and he’ll be ready to go against the Broncos in Week 16.

News from one Jay on the topic of another Jay: FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer reported on Sunday that Jay Cutler (thumb) could return in Week 17, with an “outside chance” that the Bears QB will return for a Week 16 matchup with the Packers. The Bears are obviously eager to get Cutler back ASAP after another wretched performance from Caleb Hanie, but at this point it sounds like a Week 16 return is far from guaranteed.

Meanwhile, the Bears lost Johnny Knox to a scary back injury, with beat writer Sean Jensen reporting that the WR is headed for surgery to stabilize a vertebra on Monday. Knox’s season is over, but the injury is reportedly not career-threatening. Earl Bennett and Roy Williams figure to see an increase in targets, but neither one should be anywhere close to your lineup in Week 16.

Roy Helu (23 rush, 53 yds) was seen getting his left leg worked on, but was able to play through it. At this point there isn’t any indication that this is anything significant, but it’s worth watching for updates with a tough Vikings run defense looming in Week 16.

Michael Vick took a number of big hits against the Jets, but Andy Reid (per beat writer Geoff Mosher) confirmed that Vick’s absence in the fourth quarter of the blowout win was simply for rest. There’s a solid chance that Vick will miss some practice time this week, but it’s hard to envision benching him coming off his most explosive statistical performance since Week 8.

Other Injury Notes: Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is expected to start against the 49ers on Monday, according to beat writer Gerry Dulac … (DeSean Jackson (2 rec, 28 yds) sustained an elbow injury, but returned after missing part of the third quarter ... Mark Sanchez suffered a neck/upper body injury in the second half, but was able to play through it … Seattle WR Mike Williams (fractured ankle) is done for the season ... Giants TE Jake Ballard is headed for tests on his injured knee, according to beat writer Mike Garafolo ... Delone Carter left with a forearm injury ... Browns WR Jordan Norwood suffered a head injury ... Colts president Bill Polian confirmed that Peyton Manning (neck) won't play in either of the Colts' final two games.

Editor’s note: If you want to draft a new fantasy team, check out SnapDraft here.

Defense/Offensive Line Injuries: Protection problems for Aaron Rodgers: Adam Schefter reports that Packers RT Brian Bulaga (knee) is headed for a Monday MRI, and Bulaga’s backup, Derek Sherrod, broke his leg on Sunday ... The Panthers' secondary lost Captain Munnerlyn (leg), SS Charles Godfrey (shoulder) and safety Jordan Pugh (head) ... An already decimated Vikings secondary lost Asher Allen to a concussion ... Eagles CB Asante Samuel left with a hamstring injury ... ESPN's Josina Anderson reports that Patriots DE Andre Carter is likely headed for surgery on his injured quad.
 

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Breezing Past Marino

Dan Marino's 1984 record of 5,084 passing yards has stood twice as long as Sammy Baugh's 2,938 yards from 1947-1960. After Drew Brees' 2008 assault fell just 15 yards shy of the record, the Saints QB once again has Marino in the crosshairs thanks to the first performance ever with 400 yards, five TDs and an 80 percent completion rate in one game. Averaging an eye-popping 341.4 yards per game, Brees needs just 305 to break the record. The only question now is whether it will fall next week versus the Falcons or in the season finale against record-breaking rookie QB Cam Newton.

In the middle of the most prolific six-year passing run in NFL history, Brees' average season in New Orleans has gone for 4,616 yards, a 67.8 completion rate, and a 32:15 TD-to-INT ratio. Expertly guiding the most lethal offense of the Sean Peyton era, Brees has thrown for 322 yards or more in five consecutive games, tossing 16 touchdowns without an interception. With a deep, experienced wide receiver corps and matchup nightmares in Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles, Brees has an unfair advantage over defenses every time he breaks the huddle. Among his Week 15 accomplishments:

  • Brees set the NFL record with 11 300-yard games in a season.
  • Brees tied the NFL record with six career games of at least five touchdowns passes.
  • Brees is now tied with Warren Moon and Joe Montana with seven career 400-yard games. Only Dan Marino (13) and Peyton Manning (8) have more.
  • Brees set the Saints franchise single-season record with 37 touchdown passes.
  • Brees' 97.7 Total QBR against the Vikings' injury-riddled secondary is the best game with at least 40 "action plays" in the QBR era.
Aaron Rodgers remains the MVP favorite after breaking Brett Favre's single-season Packers record with 40 passing TDs, but Brees could pull off the upset while breaking not only Marino's record but also his own for passing accuracy.

Game Balls

Matthew Stafford / Calvin Johnson - Thanks to touchdown drives of 71 and 98 yards in the final eight minutes, the Lions became the first team in NFL history with four comebacks from 13 or more points down to win in a single season. Stafford joined Dan Marino (7) and Jeff Garcia (5) as the only quarterbacks with five four-touchdown games in the first three seasons of a career. Marino is the only passer in history to reach 4,000 yards and 30 TDs in a season at a younger age than Stafford’s 23 years and 10 months.

It was Johnson, though, who stole the show against a Raiders defense allowing free access off the line two weeks after the Saints resorted to “gunner” coverage. Stafford realized he couldn’t “dink and dunk” the ball down the field starting at his own 2-yard line with just two minutes left. After an acrobatic 21-yard sideline grab by Johnson, Stafford let loose with a 48-yard lob described as more of a punt than a throw. Johnson had the coverage beat for a score, but ended up landing at the 14-yard line after a nice adjustment. After drawing a 17-yard interference penalty on Stanford Routt, Megatron then beat the shadow corner for the game-winning 6-yard score with 39 seconds left. Responsible for 75 of the 98 yards on the drive, Johnson emerged with a career-high 214, trailing only Cloyce Box (302, 1950) and Richard Johnson (248, 1989) in Lions history. His 81 receptions, 1,335 yards, and 14 TDs are already career-highs across the board with two games to go. The playoffs are now on the horizon, as the Lions need only to win once against the Chargers in Week 16 or a Packers team likely to be resting starters in Week 17.

LeSean McCoy / Brent Celek / Michael Vick - Shady scored three times to break Hall of Fame Steve Van Buren’s (1945) longest-standing team record for touchdowns in one season. Only Tony Dorsett and Fred Taylor have more fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 30+ yards than McCoy’s five in just two seasons. With 239 yards over the final two games, McCoy will break Wilbert Montgomery's Eagles season record of 1,512 set in 1979.

Celek’s 156 yards are the most in a single game by a Philly tight end since Pete Retzlaff’s 204 versus the Redskins in 1965. It’s also the second-highest total by a tight end against the Jets defense, behind Ozzie Newsome’s 191 in 1984. Vick not only scored his first rushing TD of the season, but also had one of his most effective passing games of the year, going 10-of-14 for 251 yards on passes of 10+ yards. As crazy as it sounds, the Eagles can take the NFC East if they win out, the Jets win next week, and the Giants beat the Cowboys in the finale.

Tom Brady / Aaron Hernandez - Controlling the middle of the field as well as any quarterback in the game, Brady was 10-for-12 for 172 yards and a touchdown when blitz-happy Broncos DC Dennis Allen sent at least five rushers. The performance moved Brady into a tie with Brett Favre for the most seasons (3) with 35 or more passing TDs while continuing a pace for a second 40-TD season and first career 5,000-yard campaign. Brady has boasted a 114.2 passer rating on throws to Hernandez this year, and the two connected on 9-of-11 tosses for 129 yards and a score in Denver. Hernandez was 5-of-5 for 96 yards when the Broncos sent extra pass rushers, making good on Evan Silva’s prediction that the Patriots’ “other tight end” would break out with the defense keying on Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker.

Tony Romo / Felix Jones - Against a defense that has been going through the motions for more than a month, Romo produced the third-highest Total QBR (97.5) by any quarterback this season. His 20,283 passing yards through 75 games are also the third-most by any player in NFL history, behind Dan Marino (20,492) and Kurt Warner (20,305). Jones has posted back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time in his career, recording 45.4 percent of his yards after contact. For the season, Jones is in the top-five among all backs in yards per rush after contact.

Reggie Bush - Proving to be a complete back capable of running between the tackles, Bush rolled off his third consecutive 100-yard game. The 76-yard fourth-quarter touchdown was his sixth in the last seven games, moving Bush to within 27 yards of his first 1,000-yard season. “I don't think any of the questions bother me," said Bush, of concerns that he couldn’t handle the feature back role. "It was more of the opportunities that bothered me. I know what I can do when given the right opportunity."

Tim Tebow - Although it was another uneven performance, Tebow continues to make strides as a passer. Per ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, Tebow threw better in the first half than he has all season. NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi agrees, describing the Tebow as “more comfortable with each throw and clearly improved.” Tebow has cleared 8.8 yards per attempt in three of the past four weeks, and Advanced NFL Stats ranked him 12th among QBs in Win Probability Added for Week 15. The Broncos fell to 18-1 all-time in games in which they had at least 250 rushing yards, though Tebow’s 93 yards and two rushing scores enabled him to rack up 26 fantasy points -- fifth among QBs.

Coach John Fox, who Tony Kornheiser has insisted all season “hates” Tebow, even threw his quarterback a back-handed compliment after the game. “He's gotten better every week,'' Fox said. "Six or seven weeks ago people said that he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, but I think he does that.” Fox’s team would have had a better shot at winning had he allowed Tebow to work out of the shotgun spread before the fourth quarter.

<!--RW-->Committee Report

Colts - Donald Brown (17 touches, 163 yards, TD) / Joseph Addai (13 touches, 27 yards)

The Colts continue to run Addai out as the starter in an apparent nod to his experience. Regardless, Brown continues to outplay him on a weekly basis. Addai has just 75 total rushing yards the past three weeks on 26 carries (2.88 yards per) whereas Brown continues to impress in a breakout season. The former first-rounder has an impressive 5.1 yards per carry average on the season to go with three TDs in the past four games.

Saints - Darren Sproles (13 touches, 112 yards, TD) / Pierre Thomas (10 touches, 85 yards, TD) / Chris Ivory (18 rushes, 74 yards)

Sproles could have had a second score on a goal-line attempt, but the call was overturned on replay. Thomas, the primary goal-line back with Mark Ingram out, punched in on the next play. Ivory took over as the lead runner in clock-killing mode down the stretch. For Week 16, Sproles remains a viable RB2 option, Thomas a flex, and Ivory a reach -- dependent on Ingram’s return.

Panthers - DeAngelo Williams (15 rushes, 61 yards, TD) / Jonathan Stewart (13 touches, 51 yards)

Playing with a lead throughout, Williams equaled his season-high in carries while scoring a long touchdown for the second straight game. There’s more where that came from next week against the Bucs’ sorry run defense. Both Williams and Stewart are viable RB2 options for fantasy’s Championship Week.

Patriots - Stevan Ridley (11 rushes 65 yards) / BenJarvus Green-Ellis (12 touches, 49 yards, TD) / Danny Woodhead (8 touches, 52 yards, TD)

Matchups and game momentum rule the day in the Patriots backfield. Although Woodhead and Green-Ellis both took advantage of goal-line opportunities, a more effective Ridley played as the primary runner throughout the second half. Don’t go rushing to add Ridley as a potential fantasy starter for Week 16, as there is very little predictability in usage pattern.

Giants - Ahmad Bradshaw (13 touches, 79 yards, TD) / Brandon Jacobs (8 rushes, 33 yards)

Neither back played particularly well. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for just 19 yards after contact. As has been the case all year, Bradshaw is the lead back in the tandem attack when healthy and not being disciplined.

Chiefs - Thomas Jones (16 touches, 75 yards) / Jackie Battle (11 touches, 44 yards, TD) / Dexter McCluster (7 touches, 25 yards)

This backfield remains hands-off for fantasy purposes. Jones’ 3.2 yards per carry average was his highest in a month, Battle hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards in five games, and alleged playmaker McCluster is averaging a pedestrian 5.6 yards on 38 receptions this season. There’s been no value here since Jamaal Charles went down with the season-ending ACL injury.

Injury Ward

Mark Sanchez, Jets - Neck
Willis McGahee, Broncos - Hamstring
Roy Helu, Redskins - Leg
Delone Carter, Colts - Forearm
A.J. Green, Bengals - Shoulder
Stevie Johnson, Bills - Groin
Johnny Knox, Bears - Back
DeSean Jackson, Eagles - Elbow
Mike Williams, Seahawks - Ankle
Jordan Norwood, Browns - Head
Jake Ballard, Giants - Knee
Asante Samuel, Eagles - Hamstring

Check out Matt Stroup’s “McGahee’s Malady” for in-depth analysis of Sunday’s M*A*S*H unit fallout.

<!--RW-->Awards Section

Stat of the Week: Via @CaptainComeback, John Skelton’s six fourth-quarter/overtime victories in 11 games played represent an NFL record. On a related note, Cardinals “starter” Kevin Kolb is due a $7 million option bonus in 2012.

Runner-Up: Arian Foster became the fifth player in NFL history with 1,000 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons. The other four are Thurman Thomas (1991-92), Marshall Faulk (1998-2001), Priest Holmes (2001-03), and Brian Westbrook (2006-07).

Second Runner-Up: The Seahawks have scored 30 or more points in three consecutive games for the first time since November of 2003. Marshawn Lynch has scored a rushing touchdown in 10 consecutive games, breaking the franchise record he shared with Shaun Alexander.

Quote of the Week: Jesus Sudekis on Saturday Night Live, asked if He helps decide football games: “I just go where people call me the most. Nowadays that’s a lot of football games, also the country music awards -- I decide all of those. I’m right there at any black event where food is served [Laughs]. I’m sorry -- I’m forgiven. … Tebow, I love you. But just take it down a notch, will you buddy?”

Runner-Up: Crazy-as-ever Bill Romanowski in this video: “The Oakland Raiders, Hue Jackson, he’s got a bunch of guys that like bacon. … They go to the grocery store and buy their bacon. I need some damn boar hunters.”

Second Runner-Up: Joe Flacco, capturing the state of ESPN in the 21st century: “I mean look at Tim Tebow. I like Tim, but you have a tendency to want to, I don’t want to see Tim do bad, but look what happens after he wins a football game. If you watched Sportscenter today it was Tim Tebow then something else, Tim Tebow then something else, and Tim Tebow then something else.”

Tweet of the Week: From @KenTremendous after the Packers’ upset loss at Kansas City: “Hey, 1972 Dolphins: as you clink champagne glasses tonight, remember that the 2011 Colts would have beaten you by 48.”

Runner-Up: From @thejuiceisgood, late Sunday night: “With Kim Jong Il's death, Nick Saban becomes the most powerful dictator in the world under 5'5.”

Fantasy MVP of Week 15: Drew Brees, Saints / Calvin Johnson, Lions

Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 15: C.J. Spiller, Bills / Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders

Fantasy Rookie of Week 15: Greg Little, Browns

Fantasy Disappointment of Week 15: Eli Manning, Giants

Fantasy Fraud of Week 15: Vikings, Buccaneers Offenses

Fantasy Fluke of Week 15: Toby Gerhart, Vikings

Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses

1. Patriots
2. Cowboys
3. Falcons
4. Eagles
5. Saints
6. Chargers
7. Lions
8. Packers
9. Giants
10. Panthers
11. Steelers
12. Broncos
13. Ravens
14. Raiders
15. Vikings

Early Waiver Look

QB: Jake Locker, Kyle Orton, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens
RB: Donald Brown, Kahlil Bell, Lance Ball, Stevan Ridley
WR: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney, Randall Cobb, Greg Little, Golden Tate, Lance Moore, Andre Roberts
TE: Jared Cook, Todd Heap, Jacob Tamme
 

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No Power

It was going to be hard to overshadow the latest Ben Roethlisberger injury Monday night. A blown transformer in San Francisco did just that.

The power went out at Candlestick Park twice, delaying the start of the game by about 20 minutes and causing another pause in the action in the second quarter. Strange. And when they were playing ball, the power was out in the Steelers’ offense.

Roethlisberger played at far less than 100 percent, throwing three interceptions for the first time since Week 1. It was very obvious his ankle played a major role in that as he had no velocity on his throws and couldn’t drive off his front foot. More importantly, his trademark mobility in the pocket was reduced to nil.

Thanks to this loss, the Steelers' hopes at a first-round bye in the playoffs took a major hit. It’s very possible that they’ll give Roethlisberger some much-needed rest in fantasy’s Super Bowl week. The Steelers know they can beat the Rams at home with Charlie Batch and a heavy dose of Rashard Mendenhall. Owners of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace need to be on alert.

STEELERS at 49ERS RANDOM THOUGHTS
Rashard Mendenhall played with a ton of energy considering it’s Week 15. If he replicates that against the lowly Rams next week, he’ll have a huge game. … Antonio Brown was robbed of two catches. One by official review and another by a cheap chop-block call. … Braylon Edwards was inactive. Kyle Williams is a better player right now. … Ted Ginn left with an ankle injury. … Ike Taylor shadowed Michael Crabtree and did a good job. … Frank Gore is chugging along at less than 100 percent, but at least he’s showing toughness. The problem is a lack of upside.

Editor’s Note: For early rankings, projections, the Running Back report, the top-200 going forward list and much more, check out the Season Pass!

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: QUARTERBACKS AND WIDE RECEIVERS
Sam Bradford (ankle) is not expected to play again this season. … Colt McCoy’s (concussion) status remains unclear. … Johnny Knox is looking at a 3-4 month recovery after Monday back surgery. … Kevin Kolb (concussion) is still bothered by light and noise. … A.J. Green (shoulder) is expected to play through a shoulder sprain in Week 16. … Stevie Johnson (groin) was held out as a precaution late in Week 15. He should be fine.

INJURY CHART QUICK SLANTS: RUNNING BACKS AND TIGHT ENDS
Chris Johnson popped up with a sore ankle Monday, but is expected to be fine. … The Raiders are still calling Darren McFadden (foot) day to day. Not buying it. … Dallas Clark (neck) did not practice Monday. The Colts play on Thursday. … Jake Ballard (knee) may be done for the year. … Willis McGahee’s hamstring tweak does not sound like a real concern.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Titans will stick with Matt Hasselbeck as long as he’s healthy enough to play. Dumb decision. … Earl Bennett and Roy Williams are expected to be the Bears’ top-two wideouts going forward. … Kyle Rudolph played more snaps than Visanthe Shiancoe for the first time all season in Week 15. … Golden Tate continues to lead the Seahawks’ wideouts in snaps weekly. … Demaryius Thomas is locked in ahead of Eddie Royal. … Caleb Hanie is on thin ice as the Bears’ starter. …

Editor’s Note: Sick of your team? Get a new one and win real cash with SnapDraft!

WAIVERS
DEFENSIVE SPOT STARTS
Adding a different defense/special teams each week based on matchups is a fine strategy. Here are units that might be on waivers to consider this week for streaming purposes:

1. BENGALS vs. Cardinals - The warm-weather Cards aren’t going to like the potentially chilly conditions in Cincy. The Bengals are in all-out must-win mode and figure to play an attacking, desperate style against John Skelton -- who has thrown 10 picks in his last five games.

2. TITANS vs. Jaguars - We’ve attacked the Jags almost every week and it’s paid off. They rank dead last in yards per game and have given up the seventh-most sacks in the league. Titans should be focused as they come home after a road loss in Indy.

3. PACKERS vs. Bears - Don’t get scared off by the Packers’ Week 15 dud in Kansas City. No matter who starts at quarterback for the Bears, there figures to be plenty of chances for turnovers.
 

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It's the Matchup, Stupid

As James Carville might say about the prospects of Redskins fantasy players this week, it’s the matchup, stupid. Rex Grossman and the aerial attack square off against a Vikings defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the third-most to opposing wide receivers.

Since the Week 9 bye, Minnesota’s defense has surrendered an average of 28 fantasy points, 253 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions to quarterbacks. It gets even better. Since the Vikes lost five of the top six players in their secondary, Drew Brees has produced the first ever game of 400+ yards, five TDs, 0 INTs, and an 80 percent completion rate while Tim Tebow has exploded for 35 points and a near 150.0 passer rating.

The matchup is just as promising for Jabar Gaffney, still available in nearly half of all CBSSports.com leagues. Demaryius Thomas (144 yards, 2 TDs) and Lance Moore (91 yards, 2 TDs) have posted monster fantasy games sandwiching Titus Young’s season-best 87 yards and a score. Be sure to get your Redskins into the starting lineup for Championship Week.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 16. Full writeups of each player are below.

Editor’s Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.

Quarterbacks
Kyle Orton
Rex Grossman
Jake Locker
Seneca Wallace
Matt Flynn

Running Backs
Kahlil Bell
Lance Ball
Donald Brown
Stevan Ridley
Sammy Morris
Jason Snelling
Chris Ivory
John Kuhn

Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Jabar Gaffney
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Randall Cobb
Golden Tate
Greg Little
David Nelson
Andre Roberts

Tight Ends
Jared Cook
Todd Heap
Kyle Rudolph
Jacob Tamme

Defense/Special Teams
Titans
Seahawks
Eagles

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Chiefs - It’s no coincidence that Kansas City racked up a season-high 438 yards of offense in Orton’s first start. He’s not only a far sight better than Tyler Palko and a superior passer to Matt Cassel, but also boosted by an above-average wide receiver corps. Orton has excellent matchups the final two weeks against the Raiders and Broncos, allowing the third- and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Rex Grossman, Redskins - Matchups don’t get any better than Grossman’s for Week 16. A Vikings secondary playing without five of its six best players gave up the first ever game of 400 yards, five TDs, zero interceptions, and an 80 percent completion rate two weeks after Tim Tebow exploded for 35 points. Since the Week 9 bye, Minnesota’s defense has surrendered an average of 28 fantasy points, 253 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs to opposing quarterbacks. Grossman is a borderline QB1 option this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jake Locker, Titans - Matt Hasselbeck will start this week as long as his calf injury doesn’t flare up in practices. It’s no long because Hasselbeck gives the Titans a better chance to win, but merely a deference to his position as team leader while a playoff berth remains a slim possibility. If Tennessee gets officially knocked out, Locker could start the season finale at Houston. The impressive rookie sports a 99.4 passer rating, 8.2 YPA, and 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio on 66 attempts in three relief appearances.

Recommendation: Should be owned in two-quarterback leagues.

Matt Flynn, Packers - The upset loss at Kansas City means the Packers have a good reason to rest starters in the season finale versus the Lions provided they secure homefield advantage by beating the Hanie-McCown Bears this week. We won’t have a good read on Flynn’s playing time for another week, but it’s certainly conceivable that he could be playing 3+ quarters against a Lions team that may have already locked up its wild card spot.

Recommendation: Worth a look as insurance.

Seneca Wallace, Browns - Wallace is expected to draw the start over Colt McCoy this week, but it’s a brutal matchup against a Ravens defense sure to be motivated in a home game after being torched in Week 15. It doesn’t get any better for Wallace in the season finale versus a Steelers team likely to be playing for the best possible playoff matchup.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.

Watch List: John Skelton, Chase Daniel, Chris Redman

Skelton’s Week 16 status hinges on Kevin Kolb’s concussion symptoms. … Daniel isn’t likely to get a long look as the Saints must win out and hope for a 49ers loss to land a bye. … Redman could end up with significant playing time in Week 17.

Hold Off: Kellen Clemens, Josh McCown

Always in danger of a faceplant, Clemens squares off against the hard-hitting Steelers and 49ers in the final two weeks. … McCown may be even worse than Caleb Hanie.

Cut Bait: T.J. Yates, Christian Ponder, Caleb Hanie

Yates and Ponder can no longer be trusted as QB2 options after their Week 15 performances. … Hanie is a good bet to get yanked even if manages to hold onto the starting job this week.

<!--RW-->Running Backs

Kahlil Bell, Bears - Week 15 looked like an official changing of the guard in the Bears backfield. Marion Barber only touched the ball twice in the second half while Bell racked up 108 total yards on 20 touches against the Seahawks. Bell ended up playing 43 snaps to Barber’s 17, and the Chicago Tribune suggests Bell will draw the start against the Packers this week. He’s worthy of low-end RB2/flex status in PPR formats.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Lance Ball, Broncos - Coach John Fox downplayed Willis McGahee’s hamstring tweak, but the veteran back reached behind his leg when the injury happened. We won’t have a good read on his status for Saturday’s game until later in the week. Those owners counting on McGahee as a RB2 should have Ball rostered as insurance against a Bills defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Recommendation: Worth a look as injury insurance.

Donald Brown, Colts - Averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season while coming off a career-high 161 yards, Brown remains unowned in more than half of CBSSports.com leagues. Fantasy’s No. 18 back over the past five weeks, Brown is merely a flex option against a Texans defense allowing the 31st-most points to opposing tail backs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots - The rookie led New England’s backfield in carries and yards while outplaying BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 15. The last time that happened, Green-Ellis went right back to the lead-back role. Ridley can’t be counted on for more than a handful of carries in a given week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Sammy Morris, Cowboys - In an interesting scheduling twist, the Cowboys’ 4:00 ET game versus the Eagles could be meaningless to their playoff chances if the Giants beat the Jets in the 1:00 ET game. Under that scenario, Dallas would take the division with a win at New York in Week 17 and surrender the division with a loss. Felix Jones will surely start against Philly, but there’s a chance that Morris could be carrying the load from the second quarter on. He can obviously be counted on as no more than a desperation fantasy play.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Jason Snelling, Falcons - Regardless of the Week 16 outcome at New Orleans, the Falcons could be locked into a wild-card road game by the season finale. That being the case, Michael Turner (groin) could be rested for most or all of Week 17 against a Bucs defense that can’t stop the run.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Chris Ivory, Saints - Unless the Saints fall to the Falcons at home this week, they will be playing to win against the Panthers in Week 17. In which case, Ivory won’t be a good bet for 20+ carries in the finale. Barring a chance in Mark Ingram’s (turf toe) status, Ivory remains a low-upside flex option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

John Kuhn, Packers - Green Bay’s upset loss to the Chiefs significantly increases the odds that coach Mike McCarthy will sit starters in the finale versus Detroit. Kuhn is a prime candidate for carries in Week 17, as James Starks (ankle) and Ryan Grant (age) will need the rest.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Evan Royster, Jamie Harper, Kendall Hunter, Jacquizz Rodgers, Isaac Redman

There’s talk out of Washington that Roy Helu’s workload could be limited over the final two games now that he’s slowed by toe and knee injuries. Royster isn’t a fantasy option unless Helu sits out altogether. … Chris Johnson’s ankle sprain isn’t serious; don’t rush out to grab Harper. … If the Saints and 49ers both win this week, the Niners will still have to play to win versus the Rams in the finale. Hunter can’t count on a heavy workload. … Rodgers and Redman are unlikely to see a major increase in touches.

Hold Off: Toby Gerhart, Thomas Jones

Gerhart’s two touchdowns in Week 15 were a fluke. Now that Adrian Peterson is back, he has no value beyond handcuff. … Jones’ 3.2 YPC last week was his highest total in a month. He’s still running on fumes.

<!--RW-->Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - The NFL’s leader with 338 yards in December, Thomas is still owned in less than 50 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. As the go-to receiver for a primary-read QB, Thomas has 33 targets to Eric Decker’s 13 over the past three weeks. In fact, he’s accounted for nearly 45 percent of Tim Tebow’s pass attempts over that span. "I've been real impressed with him," coach John Fox said Monday. Locked in as a starter, Thomas played 57-of-60 snaps in Week 15 compared to just 28 for Eddie Royal. Run him out there as a top-20 option at Buffalo for fantasy’s Championship Week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Jabar Gaffney, Redskins - “Ever since Florida, he’s been my guy,” Rex Grossman said Sunday of his tight connection with Gaffney. The Redskins’ leading receiver is tied for 23rd in fantasy points, having topped 70 yards in all but the Darrelle Revis game over the past five weeks. Squaring off against an injury-depleted Vikings secondary that has surrendered monster games to Lance Moore, Titus Young, and Demaryius Thomas the past three weeks, Gaffney is a top-25 option for Championship Week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - I’ve covered several of DHB’s big games for Rotoworld this season. Week 15 versus the Lions was the first time in three years that I saw reason to believe the former No. 7 overall pick can be an impact player in this league. Detroit’s secondary is porous at this point, but Heyward-Bey was a tackle-breaking monster after the catch while racking up career-highs in receptions (8) and yards (155). Locked in as Carson Palmer’s No. 1 receiver, Heyward-Bey played 63 snaps last week compared to 35 for Denarius Moore. He’s a legit WR3 option for the final two weeks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Randall Cobb, Packers - The loss at Kansas City should have coach Mike McCarthy thinking twice about playing his starters in the season finale versus the Lions. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver are obvious candidates for rest, which would leave the rookie as Matt Flynn’s top receiver for part -- or perhaps even all -- of Week 17. Cobb is worth stashing in leagues that utilize the final week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Golden Tate, Seahawks - Tate has led Seattle receivers in snaps for all three games and fantasy production in two-of-three since Sidney Rice was placed on injured reserve. Doug Baldwin’s impressive rookie season notwithstanding, Tate is the No. 1 receiver in this offense going forward. His next two opponents, the 49ers and Cardinals, have allowed the 12th-most and 10th-most points respectively to opposing fantasy receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Greg Little, Browns - Perhaps it was no coincidence that Seneca Wallace was under, but the drop-prone rookie finally broke out with a 5/131/1 line at Arizona. Promising as that performance may be, Little draws the Ravens and Steelers in prohibitive matchups over the final two weeks. He’s only an option for the desperate fantasy owner.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

David Nelson, Bills - Nelson’s six receptions and 60 yards against the Dolphins were his most in two months. He’s only a WR3 option -- and an iffy one at that -- if Stevie Johnson experiences a setback with his groin in practices this week. Johnson is optimistic that he’ll play versus the Broncos, but coach Chan Gailey is taking more of a wait-and-see approach.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Andre Roberts, Cardinals - Finally outproducing Early Doucet, Roberts has posted 28 receptions for 354 yards and six catches of 20+ yards over his last seven games compared to 13 receptions for 133 yards and zero catches of 20+ yards over his first seven. He remains a low-upside fantasy option for Week 16 at Cincinnati.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Jerricho Cotchery, Harry Douglas, Danario Alexander

Cotchery played 58 snaps Monday night compared to just nine for Hines Ward. … The Falcons could be resting Roddy White and/or Julio Jones for the majority of Week 17 if the pieces fall into place. … Alexander has regained his starting job from Brandon Gibson.

Hold Off: Lavelle Hawkins, Roy Williams, Earl Bennett, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Louis Murphy

The Titans passed the ball on a ridiculous 51 of Hawkins 54 snaps while playing from behind at Indy. That won’t happen again. Hawkins is clearly behind Nate Washington and Damian Williams in the pecking order. … Williams and Bennett are locked in as the starters with Johnny Knox out and Devin Hester banged up. Neither is trustworthy with poor QB play in Chicago. … Heyward-Bey is the only Raiders receiver worthy of a fantasy start right now.

Cut Bait: Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu

<!--RW-->Tight Ends

Jared Cook, Titans - Those who have been following along for weeks realize there’s very little predictability here. Coming off back-to-back catchless games, Cook exploded for season-highs across the board with 11 targets, nine receptions, and 103 yards against the Colts in Week 15. The Titans are once again looking to get Cook more involved in the offense, but he remains a hit-or-miss fantasy option versus the Jags.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Todd Heap, Cardinals - Finally healthy after battling a hamstring injury for two months, Heap broke out for season-highs in receptions (7) and yards (69) against the Browns in Week 15. The Cardinals were playing from behind and defensive attention was focused on Larry Fitzgerald, so there is plenty of reason to doubt Heap can repeat that performance at Cincinnati. Desperate owners can hang on their hat on the fact that the Bengals have twice given up 100-yard games to tight ends this year.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - This one is a shot in the dark for a player who hasn’t topped 50 yards in a game all year. The sure-handed athletic rookie is a primary red-zone read for Christian Ponder, though, and he played more snaps than Visanthe Shiancoe last week for the first time all season. Those snaps should increase again this week versus the Redskins as the Vikes look to the 2012 season. The Redskins and Bears allow the third- and fifth-most points to opposing tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Jacob Tamme, Colts - Dallas Clark (neck) was listed as a non-participation in Monday’s walkthrough, leaving his status in doubt for Thursday’s game versus the Texans. Tamme is on track to start, though it’s a tough matchup against a defense that allows the 29th-most points to opposing fantasy tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Cut Bait: Jake Ballard

Ballard sustained an injury to his PCL, leaving his status for Week 16 in doubt.

Defense/Special Teams

Titans - Tennessee is hosting a quarterback who had more lost fumbles than net passing yards, first downs, or drives across midfield by early in the third quarter of last week’s game. Blaine Gabbert’s skittish pocket presence and lack of awareness make him a dream matchup for opposing defenses.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Seahawks - This screams “let-down game” for the 49ers on a short week at a Seattle, coming off a big nationally televised win over the Steelers. The Seahawks now boast a Top-10 fantasy defense with 12 interceptions, 15 sacks, and three defensive scores in the past five games.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Eagles - Dropped in many leagues after a disappointing first half of the season, Philly has rejoined the top-five fantasy defenses thanks to a whopping 24 sacks over the past six weeks. It’s a risky play at Dallas with Tony Romo playing at a peak level, but this is now one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a roll of the dice.
 

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Fragile Felix

Felix Jones is at it again.

His season came full circle against the Bucs last week, finally rewarding owners that paid a hefty sum for his services four months earlier. But during the game, he needed an IV and suffered from cramps in the fourth quarter. Sammy Morris got the majority of fourth-quarter snaps. Even more concerning, Jones emerged from those 25 touches with hamstring tightness, causing him to miss Tuesday’s practice.

It’s an all too familiar turn of events for Jones, who has missed 16 games in his four-year career due to hamstring, toe, knee and ankle injuries. None of the ailments are serious, but they are all enough to drive fantasy owners up a wall. That 16 game stat doesn’t include all the times Jones has been limited in games or left them early. He leads the league in nagging injuries.

So what now? In the short term, look for Felix to play against the Eagles in a huge game for Dallas. However, we can’t trust him to finish the game or push for 25 touches again -- leaving him as a high-risk, high-reward RB2.

The long-term outlook for Jones is much worse. Just like everyone else, the Cowboys are enamored with his raw talent. But it’s obvious that he’s not durable enough to be an every-down back, so he’s headed for a kick return/third-down role in 2012. DeMarco Murray (injured reserve, ankle) will be featured as the primary runner.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld is now on your iPhone and iPad with a free app!

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
There’s reason to be a little concerned on Roy Helu this week as well. He was clearly not himself against the Giants last week, failing to burst through holes and break arm tackles like he normally does. In between series, he was getting stretched out on the trainers table. At one point in the second half, he went into the locker room to get re-taped.

Helu sat out Tuesday’s practice with toe and knee issues. This week’s opponent, the Vikings, is much more susceptible to the pass than the run. And the Redskins may want to ease back on Helu’s workload so they don’t wear him out in meaningless games. He’s racked up at least 23 carries in four straight contests.

Helu projects to start against the Vikings, but comes with risk this week.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: QUARTERBACKS AND RUNNING BACKS
Willis McGhee (hamstring) practiced Tuesday on a limited basis. He appears set to start Saturday. … Mark Sanchez (shoulder) is a full go. … Rashard Mendenhall is dealing with some sore ribs, but he should be fine. Meanwhile Mewelde Moore (knee) is done for the year. Isaac Redman is a handcuff add. … Colt McCoy (concussion) still hasn’t gotten medical clearance. Seneca Wallace is expected to start. … Chris Johnson (ankle) is having problems cutting. It’s something to watch. … Darren McFadden (foot) is jogging, but still not close to playing.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: RECEIVERS, TIGHT ENDS AND KICKERS
Owen Daniels (knee) is headed for a true game-time call thanks to the short week. … Stevie Johnson (groin) and A.J. Green (shoulder) both missed practice, but both are fully expected to play Week 16. … Arrelious Benn (concussion) returned to practice. Forget about Dezmon Briscoe. … Scott Chandler (ankle) has been updated to day to day. … Andre Johnson (hamstring) will not play in Week 16. … Dallas Clark (stinger) did not get back in practice.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Chicago Tribune is speculating that the Bears could start Kahlil Bell over Mario Barber. … The Niners confirmed that Braylon Edwards was a healthy scratch Monday night. … Santonio Holmes isn’t going to be punished despite his boneheaded plays in Week 15. … Josh McCown is expected to draw the start over Caleb Hanie this week.
 

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Target Watch: Week 16

The numbers by each name are targets for Weeks’ 9 through 15. And the target totals reflect the last 7 weeks as well. I hope you enjoy!

All snap count data comes from our friends over at Pro Football Focus.


Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald: 12-13-9-9-7-8-8 (66), Andre Roberts: 7-7-9-5-6-5-10 (49), Early Doucet: 6-4-10-1-6-4-9 (40), Chester Taylor: 1-3-3-2-0-2-4 (15), Jeff King: 2-5-0-3-0-4-1 (15), LaRod Stephens-Howling: 1-2-0-1-2-2-2 (10), Todd Heap: 0-dnp-dnp-0-dnp-0-9 (9), Beanie Wells: 2-0-1-0-1-1-1 (6)

Andre Roberts had his second touchdown in as many weeks and his second touchdown of the season as well. That’s good news for him and with 10 targets we know John Skelton likes him. It would probably behoove the Cardinals to start Skelton again and they do have a nice matchup with a Bengals pass defense that’s been less than great of late so maybe Roberts could go for 3 in a row.

Of course Larry Fitzgerald is still the man no matter what we decipher out of the target tea leaves. You don’t sit Fitz.


Atlanta Falcons

Roddy White: 9-7-14-13-15-11-16 (85), Tony Gonzalez: 6-10-6-9-10-11-2 (54), Julio Jones: 4-5-dnp-0-11-8-6 (34), Harry Douglas: 0-14-4-5-5-3-1 (32), Jason Snelling: 0-2-2-1-1-1-4 (11), Michael Turner: 2-2-2-1-0-1-2 (10), Jacquizz Rodgers: 1-2-0-2-1-2-1 (9)

Roddy White is back to his target dominating ways. He has now overtaken Wes Welker as the total target leader with 154 to 143. He has 19 less receptions than Wesley but who’s counting? Roddy also leads in red zone targets on the season with 27 and has been playing up to his fake football draft status of late with 5 touchdowns in his last 4 games and this is with Julio Jones back and producing so I’m not going to worry about R. Dub.


Baltimore Ravens

Ray Rice: 7-10-10-3-3-6-11 (50), Torrey Smith: 9-8-7-3-4-9-7 (47), Anquan Boldin: 10-9-2-9-4-6-3 (43), Ed Dickson: 5-14-3-2-4-2-4 (34), Dennis Pitta: 8-7-0-2-2-4-3 (26), Lee Evans: dnp-dnp-1-1-3-3-4 (12). Ricky Williams: 1-3-2-2-0-0-3 (11), Vonta Leach: 1-1-2-1-3-1-0 (9)

Anquan Boldin hasn’t topped double digit fantasy points in his last 7 games whereas Torrey Smith has 4 double digit games in that same span. Boldin is having trouble getting open and Joe Flacco isn’t going to do him any favors. Smith is just younger and faster and Flacco needs his guy to have quite a bit of daylight between himself and the defender.

Ray Rice is still where the Ravens offense starts and ends and continues and so on and so forth. He is averaging almost 4 red zone looks a game which should keep him flush with fantasy points.


Buffalo Bills

Stevie Johnson: 6-5-8-13-8-10-10 (60), David Nelson: 7-5-4-8-8-6-7 (45), Brad Smith: 0-0-4-7-10-5-5 (31), C.J. Spiller: 0-0-4-3-6-4-12 (29), Scott Chandler: 3-3-6-7-4-dnp-dnp (23), Derek Hagan: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-4-6 (10), Tashard Choice: dnp-dnp-1-0-1-4-3 (9), Ruvell Martin: 0-0-2-1-0-0-4 (7)

Stevie Johnson hasn’t gotten into the end zone the last couple games but continues to get a ton of targets and is at least getting decent yardage totals. Like I’ve mentioned in the past his recent resurgence coincided with the loss of Fred Jackson. As long as he’s healthy he should remain a good play.

C.J. Spiller is a nice story this season, especially for fantasy managers who have been helped late in the season by him. His 12 targets and 9 receptions last week are both highs for him and great for PPR. He’s never going to be the 20-plus carries, between the tackles back but the way they used him last week is perfect for his hybrid receiver/running back skill set.


Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith: BYE-8-10-7-6-8-7 (46), Greg Olsen: BYE-11-9-3-4-6-2 (35), Jonathan Stewart: BYE-7-6-4-2-9-3 (31), Legedu Naanee: BYE-9-5-4-3-5-2 (28), Brandon LaFell: BYE-2-5-6-4-5-5 (27), Jeremy Shockey: BYE-1-dnp-3-1-4-4 (13), DeAngelo Williams: BYE-1-1-0-0-2-0 (4)

Right now there are only two players on the Panthers you can trust and they are Cam Newton and Steve Smith. Smith is the only consistently targeted receiver week in and week out. After Greg Olsen was targeted 20 times in weeks 10 and 11 he only saw 15 targets the next 4 weeks. Don’t risk it.


Chicago Bears

Johnny Knox: 1-2-5-10-8-5-3 (34), Earl Bennett: 5-6-9-4-4-1-1 (30), Roy Williams: 6-2-8-5-1-2-4 (28), Kellen Davis: 3-2-1-2-2-1-3 (14), Kahlil Bell: dnp-dnp-0-0-1-5-6 (12), Devin Hester: 5-0-0-0-4-1-0 (10), Dane Sanzenbacher: 2-0-1-0-1-0-6 (10), Marion Barber: 1-0-0-0-1-4-0 (6)

The injuries and heartache keep piling up for the Bears and there’s not much good to glean from these last few games but the back up to the backup running back Kahlil Bell saw a lot of work in the passing game with 6 targets in which he caught 5 of those including one for a touchdown. His ability to catch passes is really his greatest strength as the Bears limp out of the season.
<!--RW-->Cincinnati Bengals

Jerome Simpson: 10-4-13-5-3-6-5 (46), A.J. Green: 7-2-dnp-4-11-7-9 (40), Jermaine Gresham: dnp-5-6-9-7-7-5 (39), Andre Caldwell: 9-8-9-3-0-3-dnp (32), Andrew Hawkins: 0-6-8-3-2-1-2 (22), Cedric Benson: 0-1-1-5-0-1-2 (10) Bernard Scott: 1-0-1-2-1-2-0 (7), Colin Cochart: dnp-1-2-0-2-0-1 (6)

Even while he was nursing a shoulder injury A.J. Green was the only receiver to top 16 yards for the Bengals last week. He is also currently the 12th ranked fantasy receiver on the season which ain’t too shabby for a rookie! Well, Cam Newton is the third ranked quarterback as a rookie, but still.


Cleveland Browns

Greg Little: 8-6-8-13-7-6-9 (57), Jordan Norwood: 1-3-2-5-5-4-6 (26), Ben Watson: 2-5-4-4-8-3-dnp (26), Mohamed Massaquoi: 1-dnp-2-3-5-7-5 (23), Josh Cribbs: 5-5-3-4-0-2-1 (20), Chris Ogbonnaya: 1-2-3-2-6-2-1 (17), Evan Moore: 2-0-0-1-3-5-0 (11), Peyton Hillis: dnp-dnp-dnp-2-2-1-3 (8), Alex Smith: 0-2-0-0-0-3-3 (8)

It’s been impossible to start Greg Little this season unless you are in a deep, deep league but last week he had a huge game which somehow coincided with not-Colt McCoy at quarterback. This actually may not be a coincidence but since they face Baltimore and Pittsburgh to end the season it might be difficult with or without McCoy to test this hypothesis.


Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant: 9-6-8-6-15-2-4 (50), Laurent Robinson: 5-3-11-12-6-5-3 (45), Jason Witten: 7-7-3-5-6-5-5 (38), Miles Austin: 3-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-7-8 (18), Felix Jones: dnp-dnp-1-1-2-7-4 (15), John Phillips: 1-0-1-2-5-1-0 (10), Kevin Ogletree: 0-1-2-0-5-0-1 (9), Martellus Bennett: 0-1-3-2-0-dnp-3 (9)

Miles Austin was on the field for 66 snaps, Dez Bryant for 50 and Laurent Robinson for 35 against the Buccaneers last week. Amazingly with less snaps and targets, Robinson still has found the end zone the last 2 games but it will be hard to count on that 3 weeks in a row. I’m going to sit him this week if I’m coin flipping between him and someone who gets more looks.


Denver Broncos

Demaryius Thomas: 2-0-6-1-7-13-13 (42), Eric Decker: 5-3-5-6-4-7-2 (32), Eddie Royal: 5-2-4-2-1-dnp-2 (16), Lance Ball: 0-1-3-0-2-6-4 (16), Matt Willis: 0-1-0-3-1-8-2 (15), Jeremiah Johnson: dnp-dnp-1-4-0-2-0 (7)

Demaryius Thomas has been the story of late with Tim Tebow throwing him a target party each week. He is Tebow’s guy and had 13 targets out of a total 0f 22 passes thrown. That’s 59 percent of all of Tebow’s passes. That’s a lot.

Lance Ball has 10 targets in the last 2 games which is good since Tebow hasn’t been throwing to running backs. Even if Willis McGahee is playing Ball should still see plenty of looks.


Detroit Lions

Calvin Johnson: BYE-20-8-8-9-4-14 (63), Nate Burleson: BYE-9-7-7-9-6-11 (49), Brandon Pettigrew: BYE-9-5-8-4-7-11 (44), Titus Young: BYE-10-3-3-2-7-10 (35), Maurice Morris: BYE-2-1-10-7-1-0 (21), Kevin Smith: BYE-2-4-3-8-dnp-3 (20), Tony Scheffler: BYE-7-3-2-3-1-1 (17), Will Heller: BYE-3-3-0-1-0-0 (7), Keiland Williams: BYE-0-0-4-1-2-0 (7), Rashied Davis: BYE-1-2-0-1-0-0 (4)

Matthew Stafford threw the ball 52 times in a come from behind win so there were a ton of targets to go around. A ton equals 52 for all you mathematicians. I figured that was his high for the season but he had 63 in Week 9, so that’s a ton and a quarter.

This is Titus Young’s second big target game in a row but we’ve seen similar numbers before. I’m still not sold that he’ll be anywhere near consistent with Burleson also getting his fair share of targets and doing decently with them. But in what could be another shootout type game against the Chargers this week he could once again see a goodly amount of targets, but beware.


Green Bay Packers

Greg Jennings: 8-5-6-5-13-4-dnp (41), Jermichael Finley: 7-4-3-5-11-1-10 (41), Jordy Nelson: 6-5-7-5-4-7-4 (38), Donald Driver: 2-4-5-2-4-6-4 (27), Randall Cobb: 0-3-1-4-2-2-4 (16), James Jones: 1-1-3-4-0-3-4 (16), James Starks: 1-4-6-1-0-dnp-dnp (12), Ryan Grant: 0-1-0-3-1-1-5 (11), John Kuhn: 1-2-1-1-1-1-1 (8)

After Jermichael Finley’s 10 targets the numbers were spookily even with the receivers getting 4 each. The snap counts may be more telling though. Jordy Nelson had 61 snaps, Jermichael Finley 49, James Jones 46, Randall Cobb 39 and Donald Driver 23. Those numbers are about the way I’d see the target distribution percentages going if all goes well for the Packers.


Houston Texans

Arian Foster: 7-4-BYE-9-4-5-6 (35), Owen Daniels: 4-3-BYE-7-5-10-5 (34), Kevin Walter: 1-1-BYE-2-4-10-4 (22), Jacoby Jones: 4-3-BYE-2-2-6-2 (19), Joel Dreessen: 2-1-BYE-1-1-3-4 (12), Andre Johnson: dnp-dnp-BYE-3-9-dnp-dnp (12), Bryant Johnson: 1-1-BYE-0-0-1-4 (7), Lawrence Vickers: 1-0-BYE-dnp-dnp-1-4 (6), Ben Tate: 1-0-BYE-0-0-3-1 (5), James Casey: 1-0-BYE-2-0-0-0 (3)

T.J. Yates didn’t continue his good play which of course hurt the wide receivers more than the running backs and tight ends as far as targets go. I’m not going to risk starting any Texan not named Arian Foster with Yates at the helm.
<!--RW-->Indianapolis Colts

Pierre Garcon: 6-6-BYE-8-12-12-4 (48), Reggie Wayne: 6-6-BYE-7-6-8-3 (36), Austin Collie: 5-5-BYE-7-8-5-2 (32), Jacob Tamme: 7-8-BYE-3-6-1-2 (27), Donald Brown: 3-4-BYE-1-1-1-1 (11), Dallas Clark: 5-dnp-BYE-dnp-dnp-6-dnp (11), Joseph Addai: dnp-dnp-BYE-1-1-1-2 (5)

The Colts won for the first time this season and their quarterback threw for 82 yards and one touchdown. This was a big change from the pass happy attack of their trying to come from behind days. But of course that doesn’t help anyone besides Donald Brown in fantasy. Wait, Donald Brown is contributing in fantasy?


Jacksonville Jaguars

Marcedes Lewis: BYE-3-11-12-4-7-5 (42), Maurice Jones-Drew: BYE-3-6-6-8-6-1 (30), Jarett Dillard: BYE-2-3-5-7-6-3 (26), Mike Thomas: BYE-1-11-5-6-1-dnp (24), Chastin West: BYE-5-3-0-0-4-7 (19), Jason Hill: BYE-1-7-4-dnp-dnp-dnp (12), Kassim Osgood: BYE-1-0-1-0-6-0 (8), Taylor Price: BYE-dnp-0-dnp-dnp-dnp-3 (3), Montell Owens: BYE-0-0-1-2-0-0 (3), Colin Cloherty: BYE-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-0-2 (2)

Chastin West led the Jaguars with 7 targets and had a touchdown. That is interesting but Blaine Gabbert’s ineptitude is the story here unfortunately.


Kansas City Chiefs

Dwayne Bowe: 10-7-9-11-9-10-5 (61), Steve Breaston: 11-6-8-8-7-6-6 (52), Jonathan Baldwin: 5-5-6-2-4-5-4 (31), Dexter McCluster: 4-8-2-2-5-2-2 (25), Leonard Pope: 2-5-4-1-0-0-2 (14), LeRon McClain: 1-2-0-0-1-0-5 (9), Jackie Battle: 2-0-1-1-0-2-1 (7), Terrance Copper: 0-0-0-0-2-0-3 (5), Anthony Becht: 0-dnp-dnp-1-0-0-2 (3), Thomas Jones: 0-0-0-1-0-0-1 (2)

Kyle Orton did a good job of spreading the ball around and completed passes to 10 different players but he didn’t throw a single touchdown or get any receiver over 49 yards not named Leonard Pope. This was his first game as a Chief and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards and he beat the undefeated Packers, so that’s not a bad start.


Miami Dolphins

Brandon Marshall: 11-9-3-10-6-8-8 (55), Anthony Fasano: 3-4-2-2-6-8-4 (29), Davone Bess: 3-6-3-4-7-4-1 (28), Reggie Bush: 3-5-5-4-2-6-1 (26), Brian Hartline: 0-3-2-5-2-1-5 (18), Charles Clay: 3-2-4-2-2-0-1 (14), Daniel Thomas: 0-0-1-1-0-2-0 (4)

This game was dominated by Reggie Bush and yes that is the first time in his NFL career he has dominated a game. His 203 rushing yards was his 4th 100-plus yard rushing game of the season and his 5th of his career. I need to get on this guy’s workout plan. If it involves egg nog.

The rushing display put on by Bush muted the passing game which wasn’t half bad with Moore connecting for 2 touchdowns on just 10 completions. One of those was to Brandon Marshall who in the last 7 games is outpacing the rest of the Dolphins in targets by 17. They get the Patriots pass defense next.


Minnesota Vikings

Percy Harvin: BYE-8-8-8-9-15-7 (55), Devin Aromashodu: BYE-6-4-5-15-10-7 (47), Visanthe Shiancoe: BYE-4-3-4-7-7-1 (26), Toby Gerhart: BYE-0-1-3-8-3-4 (19), Kyle Rudolph: BYE-3-5-dnp-1-4-2 (15), Greg Camarillo: BYE-3-2-0-0-5-3 (13), Lorenzo Booker: BYE-3-0-0-1-0-1 (5), Jim Kleinsasser: BYE-0-1-0-0-0-1 (2), Adrian Peterson: BYE-1-0-dnp-dnp-dnp-1 (2)

Christian Ponder’s injection of youth has turned this team gangrene all of the sudden. Even Percy Harvin isn’t immune to his ineptitude. After scoring 5 touchdowns in his previous 4 games and not dipping below 15 fantasy points in any of those games, he put up a big zilch against the Saints poor pass defense.

Toby Gerhart was in the game for 24 snaps compared to Adrian Peterson’s 22 snaps and amazingly scored on two passing plays. Besides that fluky fantasy crotch shot it looks like All Day was being eased back with the lesser moniker of Part Day.


New England Patriots

Wes Welker: 10-8-3-12-11-10-6 (60), Rob Gronkowski: 15-11-7-4-6-10-5 (58), Aaron Hernandez: 5-5-7-7-9-7-11 (51), Deion Branch: 5-9-3-10-6-2-dnp (35), Danny Woodhead: 6-3-4-0-1-3-1 (18), Chad Ochocinco: 5-2-0-dnp-2-1-3 (13), BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 1-0-2-0-1-1-2 (7), Tiquan Underwood: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-1-2-2 (6), Kevin Faulk: dnp-0-dnp-0-1-1-2 (4), Julian Edelman: 1-0-0-0-0-0-1 (2)

This was Aaron Hernandez’s week to shine as foretold in Evan Silva’s Week 15 Matchup’s Crystal Ball. His 11 targets led the team and even though he’s been Gronked pretty good he’s still been getting targets. Since Week 11 he hasn’t fallen below 7 targets and he’s only behind Gronkowski by 7 targets in the last 7 weeks. And 7 is a lucky number.


New Orleans Saints

Jimmy Graham: 8-12-BYE-8-9-9-10 (56), Marques Colston: 5-9-BYE-6-10-7-9 (46), Darren Sproles: 6-6-BYE-5-1-8-6 (32), Lance Moore: 3-3-BYE-7-3-6-6 (28), Pierre Thomas: 5-5-BYE-3-2-7-2 (24), Devery Henderson: 3-2-BYE-6-0-4-2 (17), Robert Meachem: 1-2-BYE-0-7-2-4 (16), Mark Ingram: dnp-1-BYE-3-1-dnp-dnp (5), Jed Collins: 1-1-BYE-0-0-2-1 (5), John Gilmore: 2-0-BYE-0-0-1-1 (4)

Drew Brees blew through the Vikings like a pissed off El Nino and then settled on the beach for a nice Bacardi fruit concoction and counted his touchdowns. Anyway, the Vikings have no pass defense and Brees could complete 70 percent of his passes against 11 Deion Sanders.

Lance Moore caught 2 touchdowns and as I mentioned in this here column he leads the Saints’ wide receivers in red zone targets so even though he’s only on the field as the 4th receiver he still has fantasy value. But it makes him boomy and busty.
<!--RW-->New York Giants

Victor Cruz: 11-11-10-12-9-9-9 (71), Hakeem Nicks: dnp-4-7-12-12-10-12 (57), Jake Ballard: 7-4-7-5-6-6-2 (37), Mario Manningham: 7-10-2-dnp-dnp-8-5 (32), Danny Ware: 2-6-3-9-3-4-1 (28), Ramses Barden: 5-0-1-4-3-0-1 (14), Brandon Jacobs: 5-2-4-0-1-1-0 (13), Ahmad Bradshaw: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-5-1-4 (10), Bear Pascoe: 1-3-0-1-0-1-3 (9), Henry Hynoski: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-0-3-2 (6)

All in all this was a disastrous game for all the non-Native American related personnel. Ahmad Bradshaw did at least show back up after 7 weeks of non-existence but he was barely a tick on a tornado.

Hakeem Nicks had another big target day but if you lost in your fake playoffs due to his long touchdown drop you are still cussing him. Those 5 catches for 73 yards and no touchdowns sure would have looked a lot better if he had, you know, caught the damn ball.


New York Jets

Santonio Holmes: 6-8-9-9-8-4-6 (50), Dustin Keller: 7-4-8-8-6-5-6 (44), Plaxico Burress: 5-8-9-7-6-2-3 (40), Shonn Greene: 0-4-1-4-4-3-4 (20), Jeremy Kerley: 5-8-dnp-dnp-1-1-3 (18), LaDainian Tomlinson: 3-5-dnp-dnp-1-4-4 (17), Joe McKnight: 1-0-7-3-2-dnp-1 (14), Patrick Turner: 0-1-4-4-1-1-1 (12)

The other New York team didn’t fare much better as they were thumped by the Eagles. Mark Sanchez could only manage 5.7 yards per pass attempt and his best receiver, Santonio Holmes, let him down by mishandling a pass that was then picked off. All in all you didn’t want to be a fan of New York football on Sunday.


Oakland Raiders

Darrius Heyward-Bey: 1-0-5-10-8-9-9 (42), Michael Bush: 3-4-2-4-6-4-7 (30), Denarius Moore: 12-7-2-dnp-dnp-dnp-5 (26), Kevin Boss: 0-2-6-3-5-7-3 (26), Chaz Schilens: 2-0-2-8-7-2-3 (24), Marcel Reece: 5-1-3-7-1-4-3 (24), Louis Murphy: 1-1-0-4-5-9-2 (22), T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 4-1-0-0-3-3-6 (17), Brandon Myers: 1-3-3-1-6-0-0 (14)

This is Darrius Heyward-Bey’s 4th game in a row with 8 or more targets. This is after being completed shunned, dismissed and dissed just a month and a half ago. I guess you truly do have to have a short memory in this game. With all those targets DHB had a huge game as he caught 8 of his 9 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown.

Denarius Moore returned and had 5 targets but only caught 2 for 13 yards. Of course he was wide open for a touchdown that Carson Palmer just flat out missed him on. Palmer’s 367 yards and a touchdown sounds even crazier after watching him miss some wide open shots. The Detroit pass defense truly is hurting.


Philadelphia Eagles

Brent Celek: 9-7-6-6-4-5-6 (43), DeSean Jackson: 8-dnp-8-10-4-6-2 (38), Riley Cooper: 1-2-12-5-10-3-1 (34), LeSean McCoy: 5-5-4-7-5-6-2 (34), Jason Avant: 3-1-2-14-2-4-2 (28), Jeremy Maclin: 9-5-dnp-dnp-dnp-4-5 (23), Clay Harbor: 1-1-2-1-2-1-2 (10)

With DeSean Jackson getting hurt/not really liking football and Jeremy Maclin still a little banged up, tight end Brent Celek came up big with 5 receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown (just missing another). Celek leads the team in targets and receptions and has been the only consistent receiver. Maclin of course would be if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but it’s good to see Celek getting work after being overlooked for much of last season.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown: 10-6-BYE-6-4-8-9 (43), Mike Wallace: 6-10-BYE-6-5-5-11 (43), Heath Miller: 5-5-BYE-2-3-4-9 (28), Jerricho Cotchery: 6-4-BYE-1-0-3-6 (20), Hines Ward: 1-1-BYE-4-6-1-0 (13), Rashard Mendenhall: 2-3-BYE-2-0-0-4 (11), Mewelde Moore: 2-0-BYE-3-1-0-2 (8)

There were a lot of futile targets in San Francisco Monday night as an immobile Ben Roethlisberger was hurried, pressured and sacked often. It’s always been true but Monday’s game showed just how much Roethlisberger relies on his ability to extend plays. Until he is feeling better this hurts Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace.


San Diego Chargers

Vincent Jackson: 12-7-8-3-5-9-6 (50), Antonio Gates: 11-6-4-10-7-9-2 (49), Mike Tolbert: 9-9-7-4-1-1-2 (33), Vincent Brown: 6-9-4-10-2-0-1 (32), Ryan Mathews: dnp-5-2-1-3-6-2 (19), Randy McMichael: 1-1-3-2-3-1-3 (14), Patrick Crayton: 3-5-0-2-1-3-0 (14), Malcom Floyd: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-4-2-6 (12)

Malcom Floyd and a consistently healthy Ryan Mathews just might have been the missing pieces Philip Rivers needed. Floyd converted his 6 targets into 5 receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown and Mathews had a workmanlike 26 carries for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns against a stout Ravens defense. That 26 carries ties Mathews career high and marks the first time he’s had back to back 20 carry games. And of course this is his first time with 4 consecutive games over 100 total yards.
<!--RW-->Seattle Seahawks

Doug Baldwin: 6-3-5-10-2-8-2 (36), Golden Tate: 1-3-3-3-4-7-7 (28), Mike Williams: 3-1-5-3-2-2-4 (20), Ben Obomanu: 2-2-4-4-2-1-3 (18), Marshawn Lynch: 2-7-2-3-0-2-2 (18), Zach Miller: 0-4-1-2-2-3-5 (17), Justin Forsett: 3-0-1-1-0-5-1 (11), Michael Robinson: 0-0-1-1-4-2-2 (10), Anthony McCoy: 2-2-0-1-0-1-1 (7), Deon Butler: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-0-2-2 (4), Cameron Morrah: dnp-dnp-0-dnp-0-1-2 (3)

The only Seahawk you can trust is Marshawn Lynch and his 10 straight starts with a touchdown. Golden Tate’s emergence is nice to see for dynasty leaguers hoping the Seahawks find a quarterback but that’s about it.


San Francisco 49ers

Michael Crabtree: 5-4-10-9-5-12-7 (52), Vernon Davis: 7-4-10-5-8-3-10 (47), Kyle Williams: 2-1-5-1-2-6-5 (22), Delanie Walker: 2-7-5-0-2-2-1 (19), Ted Ginn: 1-4-0-3-4-6-1 (19), Braylon Edwards: 3-6-4-3-dnp-2-dnp (18), Kendall Hunter: 0-3-1-1-3-3-2 (13), Frank Gore: 3-1-2-2-0-1-3 (12)

Against a tough Steelers defense I think we saw the core 49ers step up with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore leading in targets and touches. It’s pretty straightforward and it has won them a lot of games.


St. Louis Rams

Brandon Lloyd: 13-9-14-10-2-12-9 (69), Austin Pettis: 5-4-5-4-7-4-9 (38), Brandon Gibson: 5-3-7-7-7-1-0 (30), Steven Jackson: 2-3-5-3-1-5-10 (29), Lance Kendricks: 1-dnp-2-5-1-2-4 (15), Danario Alexander: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-2-4-3 (9)

I hope nobody was counting on Kellen Clemens airing it out because he didn’t and I’m not too sure he can. He dinked and dunked his way to a big PPR game for Steven Jackson and that’s about it. That’s good for some of you and maybe those some of you should send him a holiday gift basket of assorted mini muffins.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Williams: 8-5-11-11-9-7-0 (51), Kellen Winslow: 6-6-11-7-5-5-7 (47), Kregg Lumpkin: 6-7-1-3-0-3-8 (28), Arrelious Benn: 2-6-6-5-4-1-dnp (24), Preston Parker: 4-4-2-3-3-3-3 (22), Dezmon Briscoe: 2-2-3-0-2-7-3 (19), LeGarrette Blount: 3-2-1-3-2-2-0 (13)

The Buccaneers were destroyed by the Jaguars two weeks ago. Think about that and then think about how pitiful the Jaguars looked against the Falcons and then last week’s game against Dallas makes a lot of sense. To say that Josh Freeman has regressed would be an understatement.

Mike Williams led all offensive skill players with 42 snaps and saw zero targets.


Tennessee Titans

Nate Washington: 6-4-9-6-6-9-13 (53), Damian Williams: 7-7-11-4-7-10-6 (52), Jared Cook: 8-3-9-7-1-1-11 (40), Lavelle Hawkins: 6-1-4-7-4-4-10 (36), Chris Johnson: 6-7-3-2-1-6-11 (36), Javon Ringer: 2-3-6-5-2-1-dnp (19), Ahmard Hall: 1-0-0-2-2-0-3 (8), Craig Stevens: 1-0-0-0-0-3-1 (5)

It looks like my man Damian Williams had the chance to step up this season but just isn’t doing so in a timely manner. Jared Cook and Nate Washington were the target stars of this game if you can call anybody a star when your team loses to a winless team. I’m pretty sure you can’t.

Cook’s 11 targets and 9 receptions for 103 yards of course coincided with a fumble but this was easily his highest reception total on the year and there is a slight glimmer of hope that they’ll start looking toward him more now. Of course it would help if Jake Locker were the one looking for him. This is the second game in a row he has outplayed Old Man Hasselbeck. It is time.


Washington Redskins

Jabar Gaffney: 5-6-10-7-3-8-9 (48), Roy Helu: 17-3-2-7-6-3-4 (42), Santana Moss: dnp-dnp-dnp-7-12-9-5 (33), Donte Stallworth: dnp-dnp-6-2-2-6-3 (19), David Anderson: dnp-3-3-dnp-6-3-dnp (15), Darrel Young: 2-1-2-2-dnp-2-1 (10), Logan Paulsen: 2-1-2-2-1-0-1 (9), Terrence Austin: 5-1-0-1-dnp-dnp-0 (7)

Since Fred Davis departed Jabar Gaffney has led in targets with 17 to Santana Moss’ 14 and 12 receptions to 5. Moss has scored 2 touchdowns to Gaffney’s 1 but the law of something or other tells me that Gaffney is the safer bet going forward and forward is a horrid Vikings pass defense.


Last 5 Weeks: Target Leaders

Roddy White 69, Hakeem Nicks 53, Steve Johnson 49, Victor Cruz 49, Percy Harvin 47, Brandon Lloyd 47, Dwayne Bowe 44, Greg Little 43, Michael Crabtree 43, Calvin Johnson 43, Nate Washington 43, Wes Welker 42, Darrius Heyward-Bey 41, Devin Aromashodu 41, Aaron Hernandez 41, Larry Fitzgerald 41, Demaryius Thomas 40, Nate Burleson 40, Marcedes Lewis 39, Steve Smith 38
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Ranks reax: Lynch not a top-10 RB?
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Eric Karabell

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is riding one of the best streaks we've seen in recent years, having scored an average of 19 fantasy points per game since Week 9. Since 2001, only two players have had longer stretches than his 10 consecutive games in a season with a touchdown: LaDainian Tomlinson in 2004 and Priest Holmes in 2002. That's pretty good company.


Still, Lynch didn't make it into the top-10 running back rankings for this monumental, holiday-infused Week 16. How can that be? The guy is on fire! Well, it's because an immovable object, if you will, is lining up to stop fantasy's No. 5 running back: the San Francisco 49ers' defense. These guys are good, and they have shut down every running back they've faced this season. Consider that no one has scored a rushing touchdown against the 49ers this season; there are 14 teams that have allowed 14 or more rushing touchdowns. The Niners sport a goose egg. That's impressive.
That's basically my reasoning right there. It has nothing to do with trusting the formerly unreliable Lynch. He'll be back in my top 10 in Week 17! I'm sure I'll be asked about this in Wednesday's chat session and on Twitter and perhaps in the halls of the Worldwide Leader, and it's all right with me. Faced with choosing a dominant running back -- yes, Lynch has been dominant for seven weeks now, like LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice dominant -- I side with the defense. Nobody doubts the importance of Week 16 in fantasy football; it's either your championship round or the semifinals to advance one more time, but I don't buy the theory that you've gotta dance with the players who got you to the dance, either. We're looking for statistics here, not building loyalty in players.
It's likely that Lynch will not have a good game Saturday against the 49ers. Could he get 60 rushing yards and find his way into the end zone? Anything is possible, I suppose, and that's why Lynch ended up as close (at No. 12) to my top 10 as he did. I'm not particularly pleased with extra-erratic Tennessee Titans headcase Chris Johnson either, especially now that he's dealing with a sprained ankle, and he's my No. 13 choice. Ah, but he wants to rush for 1,000 yards this season! Knowing what we've seen from Johnson this season, just watch him get exactly the 70 rushing yards he needs Saturday, then shut it down and sit Week 17, too. At least Lynch won't do that. But these guys are fantasy starters for most of us because there just aren't 20 sure-fire running backs to count on.
Looking back through the season, San Francisco has kept in check Philly's McCoy, Baltimore's Rice, Steven Jackson of the Rams, a then-hot Beanie Wells of Arizona and, way back in Week 1, Lynch himself. Perhaps Lynch is a different player now, or his offensive line is the big differentiator, but I trust the 49ers' D in this case. Don't play the trust game with your fantasy options. Go with your best options, even if it means trusting fantasy's No. 20 running back for the season, Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hey, I like his matchup against the Rams. They don't stop the run. Mendy slots in as my No. 11 running back, just better than Lynch. Here are some other thoughts that jumped out at me when ranking players for Week 16:


New York, New York: Yes, the performances of the New Jersey football teams in Week 15 was kind of atrocious, but that tells me nothing about Week 16 when the Giants and Jets meet in the stadium they share. Eli Manning is surely safe to use, and one must think Hakeem Nicks will be a tad, um, more focused this week. As for the Jets, Mark Sanchez is a borderline fantasy starter as well. Then there's running back Shonn Greene, closing in on 1,000 rushing yards: He's averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 2.3 yards after contact per rush over the past four weeks. I nearly ranked Greene better than Lynch this week. I probably should have, in retrospect.
O is for Orton ... and offense: Kudos to the Kansas City Chiefs for knocking off the unbeaten Green Bay Packers. What changed? Hmm, having a decent quarterback in the lineup sure didn't hurt. Kyle Orton isn't a fantasy starter this week, but I ranked him 17th at quarterback, good enough for use in deep leagues. I really like Dwayne Bowe against an Oakland Raiders defense that stinks. The Raiders are third-easiest for quarterbacks and fourth-easiest for wide receivers to exploit for fantasy goodness this season. I thought about putting Bowe among my top-5 wide receivers this week but settled on ninth. I was kind of on an island with that choice. Ordinary Joe: Sorry, but I've seen way too much of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco this season to trust him in Week 16, and this is a miserable matchup for him against the Browns. The last time the Ravens beat the Browns, a mere three weeks ago, Flacco threw for 158 yards and no touchdowns. I know Torrey Smith has consecutive big games and Anquan Boldin is talented, but c'mon. Use Rice and the Ravens' defense, but avoid the others.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Don't Play CJ2K?

Give Chris Johnson this: the man recognizes a good plot twist.

As if things hadn’t gotten complicated enough with CJwhateverK, the league’s most infuriating player is now dealing with an ankle injury that’s inhibiting his ability to cut. Cutting is, of course, everything for a 5’11, sub-200 pound running back who relies on burst and precise movement to slice through walls of hulking linemen and linebackers.

Throw in the fact that Johnson wasn’t doing a particularly good job of cutting and hitting holes even before coming down with a bum wheel, and you find yourself facing a decision that would have seemed unthinkable in Week 1: should you bench your first-round pick for the fantasy finals? “Bench” because no matter what happens with Johnson in practice this afternoon, he’s expected to at least begin the day as Tennessee’s feature back Saturday.

But is this a man you can trust with everything on the line?

Even after Johnson shredded the Bucs and Bills for a combined 343 yards rushing in Weeks 12 and 13, not everything appeared right. Despite the lofty yardage totals, the former Mr. 2,000 still seemed to mostly be relying on his offensive line and lousy defenses, and never quite displayed the long-form speed that made him famous in 2009.

That’s why it wasn’t shocking when Johnson regressed to his literal midseason form against the Saints in Week 14, gaining only 23 yards on 11 carries. Despite a slightly better line (15/55) one week later against the Colts, Johnson was arguably worse, goosing his stats by reeling off 35 yards on his final carry. On his first 14 totes, he was stopped for two yards or fewer an astounding nine times.

Again, is this a man you really want to go to Week 16 war with?

Benching Johnson for the most important week of the season might seem like an overreaction on the surface. The man does have 930 rushing yards after all. But throw in the fact that coach Mike Munchak has already hinted rookie Jamie Harper is likely to eat into Johnson’s workload regardless of the progress he makes the next two days, and things come into clear focus. Winning it all requires bold moves, and benching a player you originally thought would lead you to the promised land could prove to the boldest — and smartest — move of all.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
The Rams have endured a lot of things in 2011. Historic futility on offense, a lingering injury to their franchise quarterback, the loss of both starting offensive tackles, OC Josh McDaniels’ refusal to use one of the league’s most powerful runners at the goal-line and the complete and utter inability to keep cornerbacks healthy, just to name a few.

One thing the Rams hadn’t had to deal with was a steroid suspension. On Wednesday, Austin Pettis helped them cross it off the list.

Pressed into duty as the Rams’ slot receiver after Greg Salas joined Danny Amendola on injured reserve, Pettis had all the makings of a late-season PPR savior. Not because the third-round pick out of Boise State was unusually skilled, but because he was being thrust into one of the most targeted positions in the league. Since coming into the NFL, Sam Bradford has proven masterful at one thing: checking down to his slot receiver.

Only with Pettis the connection never developed. With Bradford in and out of the lineup with a high-ankle sprain, Pettis averaged just 2.6 catches for 27.6 yards across his six starts. Those numbers pale in comparison to what Amendola and Salas were able to do. In 16 games a year ago, Amendola averaged a weekly 5.3 catches for 43 yards. The yardage stunk, but the catches were PPR gold. In four starts between Weeks 6-9 this season, Salas was even more prolific, averaging 5.5/54. Again, PPR money in the bank.

Unable to tack on anything after the catch or get open with any regularity, Pettis never came close to becoming the PPR plug-and-play his forebears were before receiving his unceremonious four-game ban.

With Salas and Amendola both expected to be 100 percent healthy for training camp next summer and Pettis slated to miss the first two games of the season, he may not even be guaranteed a roster spot in St. Louis, and is off the radar in dynasty leagues.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
If 2011’s first episode of As the Ben Turns had a mixed ending (Ben plays! But Ben also turns the ball over four times!), the second might not even get the chance to be so bittersweet.

After all signs pointed to Ben Roethlisberger playing through his high-ankle sprain in Week 15, all signs are pointing toward him giving it a rest in Week 16.

With the Steelers locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs barring an upset loss from the Ravens one of the two next weeks, the main reason — home-field advantage — to risk their most important player’s health has disappeared.

With Pittsburgh probably believing it’s capable of beating the 2-12 Rams with Charlie Batch under center anyway, expect Roethlisberger to miss just his fourth game with injury since 2006.

TEXANS @ COLTS RUNDOWN
Andre Johnson (hamstring) will miss his third straight game, and ninth of the season. Respected Texans’ beat writer John McClain has reported Johnson is likely to get in a tune-up appearance in Week 17. … The man being counted on to pick up the Texans’ receiving slack in Johnson’s absence, tight end Owen Daniels, is a game-time decision with a knee injury. Barring a setback, he’s expected to be active against the Colts’ bottom-10 pass defense. … Dallas Clark (neck) is officially doubtful, and will give way to Jacob Tamme for the second consecutive week. Tamme is a low-end TE2 for the fantasy finals.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Another day, another no-show from Felix Jones (hamstring). Coach Jason Garrett said he’s “hopeful” Jones will be active against the Eagles, and that it “seems” like he is improving. Not exactly the most confident endorsement of his feature back’s Week 16 status. … Vincent Jackson was a surprise absentee from Chargers practice with a groin injury. Coach Norv Turner has said he expects Jackson to suit up Saturday, but what he’s able to do today will be critical. … Roy Helu (toe, ankle) returned to Redskins practice, getting in a limited session. A “little sore,” he’s unlikely to be in for another 20-carry day Saturday, but should still be an RB2 against the Vikings’ stout run defense. … Stevie Johnson (groin) returned to Bills practice. In the middle of a hot streak, he’ll be a high-end WR2 against the Broncos. … Michael Bush was a surprise entrant on the Raiders’ injury report with a shoulder ailment, but should be near his normal effectiveness against the Chiefs. … Marion Barber (calf) missed Bears practice. He’s expected to be active against the Packers, but likely as Kahlil Bell’s backup. … DeSean Jackson (elbow), Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, hamstring) and Michael Vick (ribs) are all practicing in full this week. … Kevin Smith (ankle) was a full participant in Lions practice, and can be started with confidence this weekend.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Week 16 Rankings

Charlie Batch is 37 years old. He was once teammates with Barry Sanders. The Steelers throw him on the field every season, assuming he’s the same guy he was the year before.

That works with Tim Wakefield, but eventually Batch’s time is going to come up. He’s seriously messing with fantasy championship week if he starts over Ben Roethlisberger.

Batch didn’t look ready when he briefly replaced Big Ben against the Browns. If Batch gets the call Saturday, I’m downgrading Mike Wallace to a WR2/3 with Antonio Brown below that. Pittsburgh will run all day.

The Batch news isn’t the only concern on this Christmas weekend. The Packers could clinch homefield advantage by the time they play Sunday night. If you own Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, I’d root for the 49ers on Saturday.

The Packers say they will go all out regardless, but the injury situation at tackle could change things if they have nothing to play for. I’m sticking with my Packers regardless. I haven’t learned much this year, but I do know that 2-3 quarters of Rodgers is better than a full game from most players.

Merry Christmasukah to all. This week should be a time for celebration. And making some money.


Week 16 Quarterbacks


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Cam Newton</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Matthew Stafford</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Tony Romo</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Tim Tebow</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>Just in case he starts</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Matt Moore</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Carson Palmer</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Kyle Orton</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Andy Dalton</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Tarvaris Jackson</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>Probable(pectorals)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Matt Hasselbeck</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Questionable(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>T.J. Yates</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Christian Ponder</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>John Skelton</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Kevin Kolb</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>Questionable(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Seneca Wallace</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Dan Orlovsky</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Josh McCown</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Blaine Gabbert</TD><TD>at TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Kellen Clemens</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


QB Notes: Only Drew Brees has been hotter than Tom Brady over the last five weeks. Brady is averaging more than 300 yards-per-week with 12 touchdowns and only one pick over that span. He had his best game of the year against Miami in Week 1, but this is a different Dolphins defense. It’s not different enough to worry about. … I wouldn’t expect Carson Palmer to have another big game against a primed Chiefs defense.

Laurent Robinson wasn’t a factor the last time the Eagles and Cowboys played. That will help Tony Romo in this matchup. Asante Samuel’s injury -- even if he plays -- won’t hurt. … Philip Rivers is playing lights out. If you survived his early slump and made it this far, you finally got the guy you expected on draft day just in time for the playoffs. He was more accurate on his deep balls last week. Detroit’s pass rush could give him trouble, but he’s a no-doubt play this week.

Michael Vick seems to have the Ryan brothers’ number. He’s averaged over 10 yards-per-attempt against them this year. The Eagles averaged 39.5 points in those two games. … For the most part the top fantasy starters this week are the same guys that started in Week 1. Tim Tebow is an exception with a great matchup against Buffalo. He should get plenty of rushing yards. … Ben Roethlisberger is ranked as if he’ll play, but prepare alternatives.

I’ve written that Rex Grossman was a sneaky play the last two weeks and it’s even more true against this Vikings secondary. … Matt Moore is another decent option. He’ll be throwing a lot to catch up against New England. … Eli Manning’s rough Week 15 performance and a matchup against the Jets is enough to spook me this week. I barely survived Manning’s stinkbomb last week and will put him on the bench this time. His low ranking has a lot to do with excellent matchups for the top-13 quarterbacks.
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Week 16 Running Backs


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>at TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Ryan Mathews</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>Questionable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>Probable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Sidelined(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>Probable(finger)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Roy Helu</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>Questionable(toe)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Ben Tate</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Kevin Smith</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Probable(illness)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Kahlil Bell</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Mike Tolbert</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Chris Ivory</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>Questionable(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Lance Ball</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Dexter McCluster</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Jackie Battle</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>Probable(-)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Daniel Thomas</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>James Starks</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Stevan Ridley</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Toby Gerhart</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Danny Woodhead</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Questionable(abdomen)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Jason Snelling</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Sammy Morris</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Kendall Hunter</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Maurice Morris</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>John Kuhn</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Montario Hardesty</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>Probable(calf)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


RB Notes: We said last week that Ryan Mathews is playing well enough to be matchup-proof, and he showed it against the Ravens. Injuries and fumbles are the only questions with Mathews, and fumbles don’t matter much in fantasy. He’s a true RB1 heading into next season. … Adrian Peterson is sure to get a bigger workload this week. Don’t get cute and consider sitting him. … The Patriots don’t have a linebacker that can cover Reggie Bush. He could have a nice day receiving.

Keep a close eye on Felix Jones heading into gametime. … Frank Gore has a tough matchup, but I have a hard time sitting him when he’s still running with power. … Marshawn Lynch against the 49ers is the ultimate strength-on-strength matchup. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lynch was the first player to rush for a touchdown on the 49ers all year. He’s not a must-start this week, but he’s not a must-sit either. That’s the kind of season he’s had. … Darren Sproles had an awful game against the Falcons last time. Sean Weatherspoon did a great job against him. I doubt it happens again.

DeAngelo Williams has been getting more of the workload for the Panthers lately, but there should be enough yards to go around against Tampa’s depressing defense. … C.J. Spiller earned the right to start another week, even against the Broncos. Denver’s defense is good, not great. … Keep an eye on Roy Helu’s practice reports. … Cedric Benson and Peyton Hillis have both been running better than their numbers indicate. Benson has the better matchup this week.

Kevin Smith is a very tough call. I still don’t trust the Chargers rush defense, but I also don’t trust Smith to look 100 percent. … Donald Brown has been a great story, but he’s a shaky idea this week against a primed Texans defense. Expect a bounceback effort from Houston. … The Packers are not a good run defending team, but I still wouldn’t consider using one of the Bears backs.
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Week 16 Wide Receivers


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>Questionable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Julio Jones</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>A.J. Green</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Dez Bryant</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Victor Cruz</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Laurent Robinson</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>Questionable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>Probable(elbow)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>Ranked as if Batch starting</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Stevie Johnson</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>Questionable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Michael Crabtree</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Demaryius Thomas</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Malcom Floyd</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Antonio Brown</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Lance Moore</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>Questionable(illness)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Eric Decker</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Darrius Heyward-Bey</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Torrey Smith</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Mario Manningham</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Golden Tate</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Plaxico Burress</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Denarius Moore</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>Questionable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Doug Baldwin</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>Questionable(arm)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Titus Young</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Greg Little</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Kevin Walter</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Sidelined(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Andre Roberts</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>David Nelson</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Damian Williams</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>Sidelined(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Devin Aromashodu</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Jerome Simpson</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>59</TD><TD>Brandon LaFell</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


WR Notes: There has been a lot of talk that the Saints defense has improved of late, but I don’t see it. Falcons-Saints should be a game in the thirties with a ton of wide receiver yards for the top two Falcons. … There’s not a huge gap, but a healthy Miles Austin is the true No. 1 in Dallas, at least for this year. Laurent Robinson is No. 3. His run defies all logic. I don’t think you can take him out of fantasy lineups unless you are truly loaded.

Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney are both great options this week against Minnesota. I did not expect to be recommending Jabar Gaffney this late in the year. …. Kyle Orton absolutely gives Dwayne Bowe new life, especially in this matchup. … Percy Harvin got sucked into a Vikings passing black hole last week. It’s a big concern the way Christian Ponder is playing. Ultimately, Harvin has done too much right all year to give up on him now. He’s still a WR2.

Do not trust Darrius Heyward-Bey after one big game. He’s just as likely to disappear this week, especially against the Chiefs’ physical cornerbacks. … The two Steelers receivers are ranked as if Charlie Batch is starting. You know that you should play them both if Roethlisberger is out there against the Rams. Wallace would be in the top ten, Brown in the top 20. … Hakeem Nicks is a concern this week because he’ll be matched up with Darrelle Revis most of the day. With Nicks, drops are as big a concern as Revis.
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Week 16 Tight Ends


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Antonio Gates</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Jermichael Finley</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Anthony Fasano</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Jared Cook</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Jacob Tamme</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Todd Heap</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>at TEN</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Ed Dickson</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Kyle Rudolph</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>Questionable(quadriceps)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Evan Moore</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Jake Ballard</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Sidelined(knee)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


TE Notes: The tight end position was looking thinner for a few weeks, but a strong finish by Aaron Hernandez and Brent Celek, among others, has made the position deep again. … Hernandez is a strong play again against a Miami team that struggles to cover tight ends. … Vernon Davis has a tough matchup, but I still have a hard time sitting him compared to guys like Kellen Winslow and Anthony Fasano. … You can’t argue with Fasano’s production or his matchup. He’s a fine desperation play. (I’m using him in my office league finals because Fred Davis is long gone.) … Jared Cook has too many o-fers this year to suddenly trust. … Owen Daniels’ injury makes him a shaky option.


Week 16 Team Defense


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Titans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Broncos Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Chargers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Week 16 Kickers


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>vs. ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jason Hanson</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>at SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>at KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Dan Bailey</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Nick Novak</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>at IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Alex Henery</TD><TD>at DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Mike Nugent</TD><TD>vs. ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Matt Prater</TD><TD>at BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>vs. NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Ryan Succop</TD><TD>vs. OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Dave Rayner</TD><TD>vs. DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Steven Hauschka</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>Sidelined(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>at CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>at TEN</TD><TD>Questionable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Matchup: Texans @ Colts

Thursday Night Football

Houston @ Indianapolis

Coming off a letdown loss to Carolina, Houston goes on the road to Indy with plenty to play for. While the Texans have clinched the AFC South, they're still fighting for a first-round playoff bye. A bye is particularly attractive for the Texans because it would give Andre Johnson's hamstring more time to heal, in addition to the obvious advantage of being able to spend two weeks game planning for postseason opponents. ... The centerpiece of Houston's Week 16 plan of attack figures to be Arian Foster and the running game. Even with Foster out against Indianapolis in Week 1, the Texans piled up 41 rushing attempts compared to 24 passes. Ben Tate was the offensive catalyst with 116 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries (4.83 YPC). When a healthy Foster has faced the Colts, he's been a near-unstoppable force. Foster has run for 333 yards and four touchdowns on 48 career attempts (6.94 YPC) against Indy, complemented by ten receptions in two games. ... Unforeseeable events will determine whether Tate accrues enough carries and overall production to post viable fantasy stats on Thursday night. The situation around Tate has been working against him of late because Houston has been unable to consistently blow out opponents with rookie T.J. Yates at quarterback. Tate has not exceeded 11 touches in any game since Week 10. He probably isn't worth the risk in a flex spot during fantasy championship week.

Confirming he's still a wide-eyed rookie, Yates returned to Earth with a no-score, two-pick game in last week's loss to the Panthers. Yates has flashed enough promise to solidify himself as Matt Schaub's long-term backup, but his consistency falls well short of fantasy standards. ... Here is Yates' target distribution in his three starts: Owen Daniels 20, Kevin Walter 18, Arian Foster 15, Jacoby Jones 10, Andre Johnson 9 (one game), Joel Dreessen 8. ... The targets suggest Daniels is worth a look as a TE1 at Indianapolis, but a knee injury suffered against Carolina makes him a roll of the dice as a fantasy starter. The Texans say Daniels will be a game-time decision, and the medical staff will determine his availability in a pre-game workout. If Daniels is active, it's worth noting that the Colts have allowed the most receptions to tight ends in the AFC. ... The Texans are unlikely to rack up many pass attempts in this game, making Walter and Jones unattractive WR3s. Yates has not shown an affinity for throwing low-percentage passes to Jones, as the two have hooked up for just four completions in Yates' three starts. Walter is a trusty possession receiver, but will need Yates to play much better than he did last week. The upside of both wideouts is capped by the fact that Yates may not throw more than 20-25 times Thursday night.

The Colts preyed on a soft Titans defense in Week 15, amassing 34 rushing attempts compared to just 17 passes from Dan Orlovsky. Donald Brown capitalized with a career-best game, breaking off an 80-yard fourth-quarter touchdown clincher on what was essentially a broken play. That's not to take anything away from a strong all-around effort from Brown, who is showing the big-play ability he flashed as a rookie two years ago. Keep in mind that Tennessee ranks 23rd against the run, while Houston is fifth. Brown is undoubtedly the Colts' feature running back and a viable flex option, but his matchup goes from highly favorable last week to borderline prohibitive in Week 16.

The concern for Colts skill players in this game is the possibility of losing the time-of-possession battle in a lopsided, decisive manner. The Texans should be able to pound the football early and often against the Colts' 28th-ranked run defense, a unit that has surrendered the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. Reggie Wayne has cleared 60 receiving yards once in his last six games, and the same can be said for Pierre Garcon. Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph figures to spend most of this game at left cornerback, the position opposite which Garcon most often lines up. While neither Garcon nor Wayne is a desirable Week 16 fantasy play, the latter is a superior bet for Thursday night production. ... Jacob Tamme will get the start in place of Dallas Clark (stinger), but did the same last week and caught one pass for three yards. Houston has allowed the third fewest receptions, third fewest yards, and third fewest touchdowns to tight ends in the league. Projected game flow and a difficult matchup are factors working against Tamme.

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Colts 17
 

hacheman@therx.com
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A Fantasy Football story

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com

So a few weeks back, I mentioned that I was doing a book all about fantasy sports. Some advice and strategy, some personal TMR-type stories and a lot of stories all about fantasy sports. The crazy stuff we've all done in leagues, to draft, as a result of a trade, everything under the sun. And I've gotten some great submissions.

A person who played in a league with a dead person, guys who drafted in a male strip club, people making moves from the emergency room, a league that gives two points for kicker tackles, an outrageous bet for a loser of the league that I don't want to reveal here, and on and on. Lots of great stuff. (And if you want to submit something, you can do so at MatthewBerryTMR@gmail.com. Any fantasy sport, not just football, and any story that is funny or interesting as long as it involves fantasy).
I haven't had a chance to go through all the submissions yet -- I'm saving that for after football season -- but one caught my eye, and I didn't want to save it for the book. So, no wacky stories this week. I just want to print Doug Selmont's story and wish you and yours a happy holidays.
What's up, TMR?

When I was 25 years old, in the spring of 2008, I had been dating a girl for a year and was a high-level athlete, focused on training for my first marathon. That all changed in April of that year when I was diagnosed with an incredibly rare, yet dangerous form of appendix cancer called pseudomyxoma peritonei, or PMP for short. I am in a 10-year-old fantasy football league. I have done it with my college friends, and it's the only time of the year we all get together, regardless of marriage, kids, etc. So, that year in late August, I did my draft and said goodbye to all my friends as I headed one week later from Connecticut to Baltimore for a radical surgery with curative intent for my disease.
The operation was grueling and 14 hours long. I had 30 pounds of tumor removed from my abdomen and lost every non-essential organ I had. This, along with the overall trauma of such an operation, cost me many of my life's goals, including the Hartford marathon I was training for.
In recovery in the hospital, I was not doing well. The first weekend I couldn't set my own lineup, so my girlfriend did it for me. I won that Sunday (no Monday players) and the next day had several tubes and drains removed. It was my first victory coupled with a fantasy victory.
Later that week I got out of the hospital and my friends came down to see me before heading back on Sunday. I won again in fantasy and was released to go home soon thereafter. I don't know if it was fighting spirit, but somehow each victory in fantasy football brought about a victory in life.


Now I faced my biggest challenge: six months of chemotherapy. My lack of real-life competition was replaced by a competition that had terrible effects on my body. But I did it. And while recovering from the infusions, I started to read a lot of articles on fantasy sports. Like, every one I could get my hands on. I made some trades, I ended up making the playoffs and during both of those playoff weeks, [Philip] Rivers went off and won both matchups for me.
So, I won a championship, so far since then have won a battle with cancer, and even more than that, that girl that set my lineup? She is now my wife. And we couldn't be happier together. … Maybe the [point] is that when I needed it the most, when I needed to see victory in something minor to motivate myself for victory in something major, it happened.
I may not ever get to run the Hartford marathon. I may not be able to play on a flag football team anymore. But I will always have that fantasy championship. Most people would laugh at this idea that a fantasy sports team can be important. But, considering it's your passion and job, I can only hope you see how it has affected me positively.
Good luck with the book, keep the love/hate coming, and I'll keep reading.
Take care,
Doug


Thanks for sharing that, Doug. And as we approach the holidays and the championship week for many, I hope folks will take encouragement from this story. As Jimmy V famously said, never give up. Whatever your challenge in life, meet it head on, and hold on to whatever you have that makes you stronger. Even if it's fantasy football. Or a fantasy-football-loving girlfriend. Especially a fantasy-football-loving wife.
Time now for Love/Hate. One more time: A "love" doesn't mean automatically start him, and a "hate" doesn't mean you definitely bench him. Please read my rankings as for whom I think you should play between two players. The ranks will be updated on Friday. What follows is a list of players I think will exceed or fall short of their normal production this week.

Week 16 Players I Love


Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos: "Tebow over Eli Manning, TMR? Really?" That was a Twitter question from someone, unfortunately too far removed from when I wrote this for me to find his name. Whoever you are, dude, sorry for not putting your handle in the bright glare of brief Internet noteworthiness, which -- judging by the number of people who beg "RT please?" -- is a large portion of America.
The point, aside from the fact that I never met a run-on sentence I didn't like, is that my Tebow-over-Eli ranking raised some online eyebrows. All I know is this: Tim Tebow has been a starting QB for nine games. In those nine games, he is averaging 17.6 fantasy points a game. In his past nine games, Eli is averaging 16 points a game. It's not exact because Tebow's first game as a starter was in Week 7, when the Giants were on a bye, but if you put their past nine games up against each other (so Eli's Week 6 start versus the Bills counts against Tim's Week 7 start against the Dolphins), Tim outscored Eli in four of the nine weeks, and they tied at 16 in another. But, three of the four "wins" for Eli were Weeks 12-14, when Ahmad Bradshaw did next to nothing. The Giants want to run more and now, with Bradshaw back, they can.
Last week worried me about Eli; Tebow has never had a single-digit, team-killing scoring day the way Eli did in putting up four points this past Sunday. And things don't get easier with the Jets for Eli (fifth-fewest points allowed to opposing QBs). Meanwhile, Tebow can run. This we know. The Bills allow 4.8 yards per carry, and only two teams allow more rushing touchdowns than Buffalo. Also, only two teams in the NFL have given up more touchdown passes than Buffalo. Against subpar pass defenses Tebow has been solid this year. The Bills also have the fewest sacks in the NFL this year, which means Tebow should have a nice amount of time to decide whether he wants to run or throw.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: How do we know Sanchez will score at home, ignoring the rumors that he's dating Kate Upton? Because he has in every home game so far this year. He has at least two touchdowns in every home game this year and is averaging almost 19 points a game at home this year, and I love the matchup with the Giants. Only the Patriots have allowed more pass completions of 20-plus yards, and I expect the Jets to use play-action effectively to spring Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress deep on a few shots. If you need a guy outside the top 10, I like Sanchez. Except for the whole Kate Upton thing, if it turns out to be true. That I hate him for.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: Playing indoors? Check. Playing against a high-flying offense? Check. Two first names? Yep, still a crowd-pleaser. Threw for 350 yards against opponent earlier this year? You betcha. Do I need Michael Turner to go off to beat Jon Hein in the Howard Stern league championship this week, which means it's guaranteed that Ryan will vulture any goal-line touchdowns? Definitely.
If you're desperate: I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say that you can throw on the Patriots, and Matt Moore has nine scores in his past five games. We've seen Rex Grossman disappoint in good matchups before (cough, last week, cough), but it might not get any easier than at home to Minnesota. The sometimes sexy one is averaging better than 250 passing yards a game over his past five. If you're truly digging deep, Kyle Orton looked competent last week and he threw for more than 300 yards the last time he faced Oakland (in the season opener as a member of the Broncos).
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Jon Hein is starting him against me. Hope I'm jinxing him by putting him here, but I don't think it's gonna work. Stud.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: I'm the highest on him among our rankers and only two of us have him as a top-10 play this week, but fine, I'll say it. I thought Mendy actually looked … kinda good against San Francisco. (Ducks.) Look, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry (the 49ers allow just 3.3 yards per carry on the year), and, with Big Ben banged up (say that five times fast) or, worse, Charlie Batch back there, the Steelers will force the run even more against the Rams and their 32nd-ranked run defense.
Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Averaging more than 96 yards rushing a game this month, Greene is the answer to the question: What running back will continue to do well this month only to make us all overrate him in fantasy drafts next year, when he once again will be terrible for the first half of the season and will be good only once you've given up on him? The Giants allow 4.5 yards per carry. As our Scouts Inc. game preview notes, expect Brian Schottenheimer to pound the rock between the tackles with Greene and stretch the defense on the edges with motion sweeps and reverses.
Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos: Did you read my Tebow essay? Too long? Just skipped it because you're sick of Tebow? I get it. Suffice it to say I quoted a lot of stats to show you Buffalo is bad at run defense. Assuming McGahee is healthy, you're starting him.

If you're desperate: I mentioned Khalil Bell in this space last week, and he had 20 touches with more than 100 total yards and a touchdown in a game when the Bears were down big for most of it. I certainly could see the same scenario this week against the Packers. It might seem counterintuitive to start Peyton Hillis against the Ravens, but they really aren't the Ravens these days. You can run on them. Ryan Mathews, Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch were all productive against them, and Hillis had more than 90 total yards against them a few weeks ago, so I'm not automatically taking him out unless I have options that are clearly better. Roy Helu, Felix Jones and Chris Johnson aren't 100 percent healthy as of this writing. If they can't go, Evan Royster, Sammy Morris and Jamie Harper would be in line for a lot more work.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: If the Patriots upgrade their secondary in the offseason to include healthy guys and players who are not converted wide receivers, I'm going to be really bummed. I do so enjoy them like this.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: A 9-6 field goal battle this will not be.
Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: I'm the only one among the ESPN rankers to have Cruz over Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is the better player, but I think he'll be on Revis Island, which means more looks and at least one big play for Cruz. By the way, did you see this ESPNNY.com article in which Nicks said Revis was "a decent corner"? Yeah, I think Revis did, too.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Since he returned from injury four weeks ago, he has led the team in targets, has scored in back-to-back games, has six red zone targets in the past three weeks and gets the Vikings' 30th-ranked pass defense.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: In the month of December (the past three weeks), only Roddy White and Hakeem Nicks have more targets, only six players have more receptions, and no player has more receiving yards. He has scored in three straight games, and you know I love both the matchup and his quarterback.
If you're desperate: I'm generally not a Santonio Holmes fan, but he has scored in four straight weeks and this is as good a matchup as you get. I mentioned Santana Moss, but his teammate Jabar Gaffney has been almost as good, with more yards and receptions than Moss over the past four games on fewer targets -- with fewer touchdowns, though. Either way, both guys should get a lot of work against the Vikes. With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz getting a lot of attention, I could see a nice little game for Mario Manningham, who has at least 50 yards in the two games since he came back. Malcom Floyd has at least 90 yards and a touchdown in two of the past three, and the Chargers-Lions game has shootout written all over it. I don't know that we gained any clarity in the "Packers wideouts not named Jordy sweepstakes," but Cobb did have more than 50 yards this past week and I could see him work out of the slot to have some success in the middle of the field against the Bears' Cover 2.
Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers: Three touchdowns the last time he faced Chicago, no Greg Jennings and the Bears allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Just because it's obvious doesn't make it any less true.
Brent Celek, TE, Eagles: Listed in my love section last week, I wish I had been wrong about him. Why'd he have to be one of the guys I got right? Sigh. Played against him in two leagues, where he went bonkers (5 catches for 156 yards and a TD). Good times. Now he gets Dallas (7 for 94 and a TD the last time they played), a team that is top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. I expect the Cowboys to bring a lot of pressure with DeMarcus Ware & Co., leading to a bunch of quick dumpoffs to Celek for another good day.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: I hope Miami learned from Denver. You must double-cover Gronkowski! Not that it helps you win, but, as a Hernandez owner in three leagues, I loved it. You're starting Gronk, of course, but both of these guys were very productive the last time they faced Miami (Hernandez 7 for 103 and a TD) and, with Deion Branch banged up (we'll see whether he plays this week), Hernandez should have another solid game in a very nice matchup.
If you're desperate: With A.J. Green not 100 percent, I could see more work for Jermaine Gresham, whom I like a lot from a skills standpoint. Jared Cook had more than 100 total yards and a score this past week and now gets the Jaguars, who are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Anthony Fasano has at least five fantasy points in six of his past seven games, had more than 80 yards the last time he faced New England, scored this past week and has 18 targets the past three weeks.
Green Bay Packers D/ST: They're at home; they're angry; and whichever guy the Bears play at quarterback this week won't be very good.
Denver Broncos D/ST: Ring. Ring. Ring. Hey, could you answer that? It's the Bills, phoning in the season.
If you're desperate: Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou, Romeo? Making the Chiefs respectable again, that's "where." (Apologies to English majors for & well, they know). The team has been playing good defense all year long, averaging 15 fantasy points in its past two home games. Despite the solid performance this past week by Carson Palmer, I'm not convinced he doesn't have a few picks in him. Happiness is any defense playing the Buccaneers, who have allowed an average of 16.5 fantasy points to opposing defenses the past four weeks. This week, it's the Panthers' turn. Given all the issues on the Packers' offensive line, I could see the Bears' defense doing well from a fantasy perspective if you need a defense outside the top 10.

Week 16 Players I Hate


Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: Bonus points for guttiness, but I thought he looked terrible Monday night. Now he's traveling back home on a short week (Pittsburgh played Monday night in SF and will be at home Saturday), so, despite the cushy matchup with the Rams, I'm not expecting a huge game -- if he suits up at all.
Carson Palmer, QB, Raiders: The Chiefs made Big Ben look very human; they held Aaron Rodgers to well below his season average; and only the rushing saved Tim Tebow's fantasy day. Since Week 7 (Carson's first game back), Palmer is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL. That's skewed by the three he threw in his first game against KC, a game he didn't expect to play in, but the fact remains: Careful, he's not. As we go ESPN Next Level, Palmer is 3-for-17 (17.6 percent) on throws more than 20 yards downfield in his past five starts, failing to complete such a pass in three of the five games. A healthy Denarius Moore should help those numbers, but will it be enough in a championship week? I'm not convinced.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Just four points the last time he faced Cleveland, and I have a personal animosity because he was so horrific this past week as I watched my Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin do nothing while Torrey Smith had a huge day. And yes, I was playing against Smith in the same game in which I had Rice and Boldin. Very bitter. Been a long time since I was Wacko for Flacco. Gonna be even longer. Meanwhile, where's the "Fire Cam Cameron" petition? I'll sign that.
Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: Bit of a gut call here, and chances are you don't have better options. But he had zero fantasy points the last time he faced the Falcons, and I expect Atlanta to rush only four and drop seven back to put more guys in coverage and make sure they take care of the flareouts to guys such as Sproles. He's single-digit fantasy points unless he scores, and, although that's always a possibility for anyone on the Saints' offense, I would hate to need to count on a touchdown from Sproles. Again, just six touches for 3 yards the last time he played them, and the Falcons have given up just one receiving touchdown to an opposing running back this year. So if it's going to be a rushing touchdown allowed, I expect that to be Chris Ivory or Pierre Thomas, making Sproles a flex play this week, lower than normal.
Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: Not convinced he's healthy, and I could see Mike Shanahan giving 25 carries to Evan Royster just because he's Shanahan and it makes no sense. Plus, the Vikings are top-10 in run defense, allowing just two touchdowns to opposing running backs in their past six road games.

Marion Barber, RB, Bears: The Bears have a fever. And the only puh-scription is more Khalil Bell. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints: Same thing as Sproles. I believe in Atlanta's run defense. And in the idea that Drew Brees is not going to be handing off a lot.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: Maybe he scores. (He did last time he faced the Dolphins). Maybe he doesn't. But he hasn't had more than 12 touches in three games and, in a playoff week (and championship week at that), I'm just not trusting my team to the whims of Mr. Belichick.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: I know. The Raiders have been lit up in the secondary recently. And Kyle Orton has to give you some sort of hope. But Bowe hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 5 and here's the target distribution this past week in Orton's first game as quarterback: Steve Breaston 6, Dwayne Bowe 5, Jon Baldwin 4, Terrance Copper 3. Orton is spreading the ball around. Good for Kansas City, bad for Dwayne Bowe, whom I have as a flex play this week, nothing more.
Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Not convinced he'll play, but, if he does, he'll be less than 100 percent. Seems as though Buffalo's offense is starting to run through C.J. Spiller the way it used to with Fred Jackson (Spiller led the team in pass targets this past week, not to mention touches), so, along with fewer looks, Johnson also most likely is facing Champ Bailey. Broncos have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past six games, and two of them were to Percy Harvin in that crazy Vikings game. I think Johnson will be OK -- a middle-of-the-road flex play -- but there's more downside than upside here.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Buccaneers: Six straight weeks without a touchdown, and he has topped 60 yards only once since Week 1. Had just four catches for 41 yards the last time these two teams faced off, and Josh Freeman is playing all sorts of awful right now. Incidentally, as Dave Barry would interject, that's a good name for a band: All Sorts Of Awful. Maybe he'll score, but I wouldn't want to be starting him hoping for that.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: Same thing as Winslow. He needs to score to be useful in fantasy. In every game he has played when he has not scored, only once (Week 3 at Cincy) did he have more than 50 yards receiving. So, will he score? I say it's not likely. He has two targets all year -- just two -- inside an opponent's 10-yard line. Only the Rams and Chiefs are worse at red zone touchdown efficiency. As David Akers owners know, this is a team that kicks a lot of field goals.
New York Giants D/ST: Single digits in seven straight games and five or fewer points in four straight. You know I'm high on Sanchez already, and this is a defense too banged up to do much damage.
Dallas Cowboys D/ST: Too little, too late, but, the way the Eagles are playing, I'm not starting a defense against them.
 

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Flex ranks: There's a new sheriff in town
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Eric Karabell

Welcome to Week 16 as we keep on flexing, playoff-style. Below you'll find the latest compilation ranking the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one extra-special holiday package to help you with your lineup decisions. For many of you, this is the final week of the season. Enjoy it!

As always, if you need a bit more specific advice, see whether your questions have been answered in recent chat sessions. Here's the wrap from my Wednesday chat session, and my colleagues will be chatting Thursday and Friday. Remember this week there's a Thursday game, and then most of the Week 16 games will be played on Saturday, with one game scheduled for Sunday night and another on Monday. Phew. So don't wait until Sunday morning to do lineups, or you'll miss it. Best of luck in Week 16 and beyond!

1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Hard to believe this guy has 20 touchdowns and his team might win only half its games. Meanwhile, his contribution has helped fantasy teams win titles.
2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Has run for 333 yards and four touchdowns in two career games against the Colts. Perfect timing!
3. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: He should run all over the terrible Browns. He topped 200 rushing yards against them only three weeks ago.
4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Gotta think his touches go up considerably this week, or why bother having him suit up?
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Gotta love MJD, who is thriving despite the mess around him. He always gets his points.
6. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Averaging 16 fantasy points per game during the past month, he's pretty safe; again, the matchup works.
7. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: His matchup really doesn't matter, does it?
8. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Not having a great second half to the season, but he gets touchdowns.
9. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders: Hopefully you didn't avoid signing this guy earlier this season because you thought Darren McFadden would miss only a week or two.
10. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: If you didn't know about his past, you'd be pretty excited about this guy's future.
11. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
12. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Don't expect another touchdownless game from him.
13. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
14. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: He's here because of the matchup, and it doesn't matter who's handing off to him.
15. Roddy White, WR, Falcons
16. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: Make sure he plays, but if he does, he should have fun with the Patriots' secondary. He did in Week 1.
17. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: The toughest matchup possible, against the 49ers, a team that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Lynch is on such a hot streak, though, that he'll be the first.
18. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Needs only 70 yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and it wouldn't surprise me if he shuts things down for this week and next as soon as he gets there.
19. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
20. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Averaging 4.8 yards per rush in the past month, and the Giants are having defensive breakdowns everywhere.
21. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
22. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Playing better than most expected, including me. But this is not a perfect matchup for him.
23. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: Ordinarily, a tight end at No. 23 in these rankings would be unreal. And Graham is the No. 2 tight end!
24. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
25. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
26. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals
27. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers
28. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: Check back on his progress and, if he does play, hope Mike Shanahan doesn't alter what has been working.
29. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Love the matchup against a Raiders pass defense that has stopped few teams this season. And Kyle Orton can get Bowe the ball.
30. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons
31. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers: Certainly if Ben Roethlisberger sits, it doesn't help Wallace. But it's not like Charlie Batch is Caleb Hanie, either.
32. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Might have a reduced workload but still could find the end zone in what should be a high-scoring affair with Philly.
33. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals
34. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
35. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: Perhaps he needed Greg Jennings on the other side of the field more than anyone thought.
36. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints
37. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: Could use a little stickum for his hands this week. Facing Darrelle Revis won't help, though.
38. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers: Sure, this is an outstanding matchup against a Panthers team that cannot stop the run, but might I remind you that Blount got stopped by this team a few weeks ago?
39. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
40. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Tremendous talent, good matchup. Trust him.
41. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: Also talented, but this is not a good matchup for him.
42. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
43. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
44. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: I think he's the top Dallas wide receiver moving ahead.
45. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: Would be nice if he'd have a big rushing game once in a while.
46. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
47. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
48. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
49. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
50. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: Wouldn't surprise me if he rushed for 100 yards against the Colts, too. Not often you get a reserve running back ranking this well.
51. Kahlil Bell, RB, Bears: Bell probably starts this week, and he has looked good enough for flex duty.
52. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
53. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
54. Donald Brown, RB, Colts: It's a shame he has such a difficult matchup, because he has been on a roll.
55. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets: Stay classy, Santonio. Oh, and check out the scoreboard when you're celebrating.
56. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Can't trust a guy who is about 50/50 to finish a game.
57. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Why can't Batch find him for a deep pass or two?
58. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Why can't Tim Tebow find him for a deep pass or two?
59. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
60. Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers
61. Lance Moore, WR, Saints
62. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Nice matchup against the Vikings for him and Rex Grossman.
63. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
64. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
65. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
66. Nate Washington, WR, Titans: I think he could do more damage with rookie Jake Locker slingin' it, but it sure looks as though the Titans want Matt Hasselbeck to play quarterback. Oh well.
67. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: It's just impossible to get excited about starting Hillis.
68. Laurent Robinson, WR, Cowboys
69. Marion Barber, RB, Bears: Had his chance and did fine with it, but Kahlil Bell is quicker.
70. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: Looks as though he'll play this weekend, but don't get too excited about his Week 15. He's not Pats' the top option or even the second.
71. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Rams
72. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
73. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets
74. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
75. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
76. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens: The Browns are so easy to run on, so why would Joe Flacco throw the ball?
77. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
78. Brent Celek, TE, Eagles: Philly's leading receiver this season, as five Eagles have between 46 and his 54 catches.
79. Jackie Battle, RB, Chiefs
80. Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins: Not a bad play in deeper leagues.
81. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders
82. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
83. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
84. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
85. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints: Probably fills in for Mark Ingram again. Ivory probably could be a 1,200-yard back if he were alone in this backfield, but he's not.
86. Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts
87. Mario Manningham, WR, Giants
88. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos: For a while there, he was a top-10 wide receiver.
89. Evan Royster, RB, Redskins: This Penn State product could step in for an ailing Helu.
90. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings: Don't count on two more receiving touchdowns again.
91. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
92. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts
93. Ricky Williams, RB, Ravens
94. Sammy Morris, RB, Cowboys: Nice insurance in case Felix Jones can't suit up.
95. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
96. Lance Ball, RB, Broncos
97. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets
98. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
99. Donald Driver, WR, Packers
100. Nate Burleson, WR, Lions


Just missed: Maurice Morris, RB, Lions; Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers; Greg Little, WR, Browns; James Jones, WR, Packers; LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets; Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions; Thomas Jones, RB, Chiefs; Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders; Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots; Titus Young, WR, Lions. Best of luck in Week 16 and beyond!
 

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Forget Felix?

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you’re fighting for a championship this weekend. And if you’re fighting for a championship, there’s an even better chance getting there wasn’t easy.

Fantasy football is a maze of injuries and endless series of impossible to answer questions. Oftentimes, it really is better to be lucky than good.

But nevermind all that. It doesn’t matter how you got here — you’re here. Just remember one thing: stick with those who made it possible (unless it’s Chris Johnson).

Benching your WR2 for someone you plucked off the waiver wire last Wednesday (Doug Baldwin anyone?) might seem smart in theory, but almost never works in practice. Football is filled with random acts of...randomness. The ebbs and flows of baseball and rhythms of basketball are nowhere to be found. Those who aren’t the cream of the crop are almost always only as good as their next matchup. Try not to forget that Saturday morning when you’re contemplating benching Dez Bryant for Greg Little.

FELIX JONES FACTS
Felix Jones — and the fact that he hasn’t been able to get on the practice field — has dominated the championship week news-cycle. As you await word on his Week 16 status, you might as well get to know the man.

Jones has 521 yards rushing this season. DeMarco Murray gained 17.5 percent of that on the first carry of his first start.

Jones has rushed for 100 yards in a game four times during his four-year career, or as many times as Reggie Bush has in his past eight games. Bush’s 203 yards in Week 15 were 88 more than Jones has ever gained in one afternoon.

Since coming into the league in 2008, Jones has dealt with hamstring, ankle, shoulder, shin, hip, forearm, knee, thigh and toe injuries, missing 16 of a possible 62 games. His (second) hamstring, ankle, shoulder, shin, hip and forearm injuries have all occurred since the beginning of the 2010 season.

Jones has rushed for eight touchdowns in his 46 career games, or as many as Marshawn Lynch has rushed for since Week 9. John Kuhn has rushed for eight touchdowns in his past 30 games.

Jones has two rushing touchdowns since the beginning of the 2010 season, or as many as Cam Newton scored in one 11-minute span of Carolina’s Week 13 win over the Bucs.

Of Jones’ 95 career receptions, only one has gone for a touchdown. Here is a list of a few other players with at least one career receiving score: Toby Gerhart, Jeff King, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Michael Robinson, Bruce Miller, Charles Clay, Ryan Taylor, Colin Cochart and David Johnson.

THURSDAY NIGHT ROUNDUP
Predictably, the immediate reaction in most quarters to Houston’s last-second loss was, “what’s happened to the Texans?” Last I checked, winning with a fifth-round rookie quarterback making just his fourth NFL start wasn’t easy, particularly when his best options in the passing game are Kevin Walter and a banged-up Owen Daniels. … Coming off easily the best game of his up-and-down career, Donald Brown was rewarded by...being de-emphasized in favor of Joseph Addai. Unless Addai wakes up stiff on Friday — which is a distinct possibility — there will be little reason for those in leagues that go beyond Week 16 to consider starting Brown next weekend. … Reggie Wayne has lost a step, but still has the hands and body control to be an impact receiver. The free-agent-to-be is unlikely to fall off the fantasy map in 2012. … Dan Orlovsky on a game two-game winning streak? C'est la vie say the old folks...

BIZARRE/ULTIMATELY MEANINGLESS STATS OF THE WEEK
Darrius Heyward-Bey has more receptions and receiving yards than Jermichael Finley — and six fewer drops.

The Broncos gained more yards rushing against the Patriots in the first quarter last Sunday than BenJarvus Green-Ellis has in his past four games.

Aaron Rodgers has out-rushed LaDainian Tomlinson this season.

Kenny Britt — who last played in Week 3 — has as many receiving touchdowns as Chad Ochocinco and Hines Ward combined.

Since the Eagles’ Week 7 bye, DeSean Jackson has 230 fewer receiving yards than Laurent Robinson, and 467 fewer than Victor Cruz.

Out since Week 12, Fred Jackson still has two more rushing yards than Adrian Peterson in one fewer game.

Jake Locker has two fewer touchdown passes than Sam Bradford.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Vincent Jackson (groin) missed his second straight practice. Coach Norv Turner is no longer “expecting” his No. 1 receiver to play, but “hoping” he does. Hold your breath. … Chris Johnson (ankle) returned to Titans practice, getting in a limited session. CJwhateverK is still unable to cut with his normal authority, but coach Mike Munchak has said his feature back is “fine and a go” for Saturday. What the Dose recommended on Thursday still stands. … Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is officially a game-time decision. Expect for that decision to ultimately be Roethlisberger propping his ailing left foot up on the sideline while Charlie Batch struggles to lead the Steelers past the 2-12 Rams. … Willis McGahee (hamstring) turned in a full practice, and is expected to be near 100 percent health against the Bills. … Roy Helu (toe, ankle) was limited for the second straight day, but “felt a lot better.” Even in a poor matchup with Minnesota’s stout run defense, he’ll be a rock solid RB2 for the fantasy finals. … Marion Barber (calf) missed his second straight practice. It will be the Kahlil Bell show at running back for the Bears against the Packers. … Deion Branch (groin) was limited for the second straight day. He’s shaping up to be a game-time decision. … Brandon Marshall (knee soreness) returned to practice, and won’t be limited against the Patriots’ 32nd ranked pass defense.

FOUR PICKS FOR WEEK 15
Big game: Saints 31, Falcons 28
The Saints trip Atlanta for the second time this season, putting pressure on the 49ers as Drew Brees closes in on NFL history.

Big game II: Jets 17, Giants 10
The Jets subdue the Giants’ passing attack while generating just enough offense against a defense that’s woefully thin outside of Jason Pierre-Paul.

Upset of the week: Seahawks 23, 49ers 13
The Seahawks continue their late surge while the 49ers’ confidence is further shaken heading into their first postseason since 2002.

The I really don’t have a clue but will pretend I do game: Eagles 41, Cowboys 21
The Eagles continue their “Too Little, Too Late 2011” march while the Cowboys finally convince everybody they’re simply not that good of a team.
 

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Matchups: Stick with Smith

1:00PM ET Games

NY Giants @ NY Jets

Victor Cruz has produced at an elite enough level that it's at least worth pondering whether the Jets might give him the Darrelle Revis treatment in Saturday’s game. Precedent says probably not. All season long, defenses have assigned top corners to Hakeem Nicks' side, along with rolled coverage. Cruz also plays in the slot in three-receiver sets, and Revis rarely covers opposing inside receivers. No Giants wideout moves around as much or is as tough to follow defensively as Victor Cruz. For most of this game, my expectation is that Revis will cover Nicks while Antonio Cromartie plays strictly the outside corner spot opposite them, and Cruz deals with either slot corner Kyle Wilson or dime back Donald Strickland in obvious passing sets. From a matchup standpoint, Cruz will be the favorite to lead the Giants in receiving on Saturday.

Game flow got the best of Shonn Greene in Week 15 as the Eagles jumped out to a 28-0 second-quarter lead. Forced to play from behind, the Jets used the run game as a change of pace only during the final two quarters, while also losing the time-of-possession battle. It wasn't a good recipe for Greene's fantasy stats. He should rebound against the Giants. With a defense designed based on up-field pass rush as opposed to gap control, the G-Men rank 22nd in the NFL against the run and surrender 4.53 yards per rushing attempt. Barring in-game injury, it's almost inevitable that Greene will post solid, RB2-caliber numbers in this matchup. The volume is sure to be there, Greene has played at a high level since midseason, and the opponent struggles to stop the run.

Score Prediction: Jets 21, Giants 20

Cleveland @ Baltimore

The Ravens maintain a slim lead atop the AFC North, but they'll have to win out for things to stay that way. Top division foe Pittsburgh faces 2-12 St. Louis and this same 4-10 Browns squad in its final two games. Baltimore travels to Cincinnati in Week 17, so realistically the Steelers should be considered the slight favorites to win the division. Regardless, a blueprint for stomping Cleveland was established by Baltimore in Week 13. Particularly after losing Anquan Boldin to a multi-week knee injury, there is little reason to believe the Ravens would veer from the distinctly smash-mouth strategy. The Ravens rocked the Browns with a 55:24 run-to-pass ratio, as Ray Rice and Ricky Williams rushed for a season-high 280 combined yards. Some regression off those rushing numbers is inevitable in this game, but the bottom line is that Baltimore's plan of attack is likely to be run-heavy and of the low-percentage variety in the rare instances Joe Flacco drops back to pass. The Ravens can win this game in the trenches. Torrey Smith and Lee Evans are unappealing WR3s. (Smith actually matched up with Joe Haden for most of the aforementioned Week 13 game.) Ed Dickson is off the radar. Flacco is a two-QB league option. Rice is a top-three fantasy running back play.

The Ravens were beaten so soundly in Ray Lewis' Week 15 return that it's fair to wonder if they might be better off starting Dannell Ellerbe at middle linebacker instead. The Chargers gashed Baltimore with the run, piling up 145 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. And make no mistake: Ryan Mathews was the key to San Diego's win. I don't typically condone starting running backs against Baltimore, but Peyton Hillis may have the Ravens right where he wants them. Don't forget that his 2010 breakout game (22-144-1, 7-36) came against Lewis' defense in Week 3 last year, and Seneca Wallace just so happened to be quarterbacking the Browns at the time. Wallace simply creates more ball movement than Colt McCoy, making things happen with his legs and presenting no downgrade in terms of passing skills. Montario Hardesty did not receive a Week 15 touch and is no threat to Hillis' workload after falling behind Chris Ogbonnaya on the depth chart. Three weeks ago, I would've said there's no chance starting Hillis against Baltimore would be a good idea in fantasy title games. It's still not the most desirable move, but I’d feel better about it now.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 17

Miami @ New England

With six straight victories, the red-hot Patriots have catapulted themselves into the driver's seat for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Houston are all one game back, however, so New England must win out to lock it up. They won't take Miami lightly. The Pats attacked the Fins with a pass-first approach in their Week 1 tilt, avoiding Miami's stout front seven and targeting a secondary vulnerable in coverage besides LCB Vontae Davis. New England's final pass-to-run ratio was 48:22, as Tom Brady threw for 517 yards and four touchdowns. Bill Belichick's game plans aren't typically predictable, but this is still the best formula to defeat the Dolphins. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez should be locked into fantasy lineups. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the rest of New England's running game should be on the bench.

The Pats have an edge in this game because they pose so many matchup problems offensively, but the Dolphins can stay competitive because New England's defense simply can't stop anyone. The secondary is as bad as advertised, and losing sack leader Andre Carter for the season will make life even tougher on an already overmatched back end. Brandon Marshall has at least 97 yards in each of his last two meetings with the Patriots. Reggie Bush is running like he was shot out of a cannon, ranking fifth among tailbacks in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks. Healthy again, Matt Moore is a solid two-quarterback league play. His receivers will be open on Saturday.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

The Titans' playoff hopes took a monster hit with last week's loss to the Colts, but they're still hanging by a thread, needing independent wins and Jets and Bengals losses to keep playing into January. Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, coach Mike Munchak is insistent upon starting Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Hasselbeck has thrown one touchdown pass over his last five games and is averaging a pathetic 5.27 yards per attempt. We're left only to speculate that he'll be on a short leash, but the in-game installation of rookie Jake Locker isn't a bankable fantasy situation. Even against a bad Jacksonville team, Hasselbeck is playing so poorly that Titans skill players may struggle for production because ball movement threatens to be scarce. Owners of a scuffling, banged-up Chris Johnson (ankle) can consider benching him with Munchak hinting at an increased workload for Jamie Harper. Tennessee's receivers and tight ends have been incredibly inconsistent fantasy commodities. Barring an unexpected change in Munchak's quarterback plans before game day, it's fair to feel uncomfortable starting Titans during fantasy championship week.

Maurice Jones-Drew tweaked his ankle in last Thursday night's loss to Atlanta, but returned to the game and practiced this week. He will start against the Titans. Tennessee's run defense has been sieve-like of late, as Donald Brown's fantasy owners can attest. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have been roughed up for 452 yards on 71 carries (6.37 YPC) by a combination of Brown, Delone Carter, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller, and LeGarrette Blount. MJD will have fresh legs nine days removed from his last game and is a top-five running back play in Week 16.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 20, Titans 17

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Tampa Bay @ Carolina

The Bucs' defense is getting shredded at an embarrassing clip. Five of their last six opponents have scored at least 30 points, and Tampa's top two defenders (Aqib Talib, Gerald McCoy) are on year-ending injured reserve. It's hard to imagine them having any answers for Cam Newton and Steve Smith. The Bucs' No. 30 run defense makes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both appetizing flex plays. No defense in the league has allowed more rushing scores than Tampa's. Facing a team that seems to have already called it a season, the Panthers' offense shouldn't struggle to rack up yards and points on Saturday. This is a matchup to exploit where possible.

On the flip side, LeGarrette Blount's season has gone downhill in a hurry. He has one touchdown in his last four games and 102 yards on his last 39 rushing attempts (2.62 YPC). In theory, Blount should be a strong RB2 play against a Panthers defense that ranks 25th against the run. But his teammates are killing his fantasy value, and Blount has done nothing to instill confidence with his recent performance. Whereas Carolina is trending up late in the season, the arrow is pointing straight down on Tampa. Owners looking to use Blount in fantasy title week have to hope that the Bucs can keep this game close for at least two quarters. If not, Blount will be staring at another clunker.

Score Prediction: Panthers 30, Bucs 17

Arizona @ Cincinnati

A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson both entered college in 2008 as top-ten recruits. They squared off twice in the SEC, with Green (3-89-1, 5-99-1) getting the better of Peterson's LSU Tigers in both instances. Green's Week 15 shoulder injury won't threaten his status against the Cardinals, and I'd feel confident about his fantasy outlook despite Peterson's recently improved play. There's no doubt that Peterson will be assigned to shadow Green all over the field. Other than Green, the Bengals' passing game is likely to struggle on Saturday. Regressing sharply, Andy Dalton has a 4:6 TD-to-turnover ratio over his last six games and has not cleared 200 yards since November.

Beanie Wells' Week 15 effort was disappointing in that he received only 16 touches and managed 61 yards against a weak Browns defense. Also working against Wells was the fact that Arizona got down 10-0 early, and 17-7 by the third quarter. In my game reviews this week, I still thought Wells looked relatively spry and on the verge of breakout runs on several carries. The early deficit clearly took away from his playing time and workload. Wells isn't playing at 100 percent, but if the Cardinals' O-Line had given him an open-field opportunity, I believe he would have capitalized with a long gain. While the Bengals have defended the run well for the most part, it has not been tough matchups that have stopped Beanie Wells this season. I would want him in my lineup as an RB2.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Bengals 17

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

The Rams will be severely overmatched Saturday at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh will have its pedal on the gas after last Monday's loss to San Francisco, as the AFC North title hangs in the balance. Held out of practice early this week due to illness, Brandon Lloyd will have his hands full with borderline shutdown CB Ike Taylor. Per Pro Football Focus, Taylor has been targeted 84 times this season. He's allowed 36 completions (42.9%) for 416 yards (4.95 YPA) and two touchdowns. Assuming he's at full tilt physically, Lloyd is good enough to make a few acrobatic receptions and post a respectable stat line against the Steelers. Lloyd offers little fantasy upside, however, especially after Kellen Clemens spent most of last week's game throwing dump-off passes to Steven Jackson and slot receivers. Feel free to bench Lloyd if you are stacked at wideout.

Despite several national reports to the contrary, Rotoworld's expectation all last week was that Ben Roethlisberger would play on Monday Night Football. He did. But the feeling has changed this week. Badly inhibited by his high ankle sprain, Roethlisberger's accuracy was brutal in the 20-3 loss at San Francisco. Pittsburgh will turn to Charlie Batch in a game-manager role on Saturday, leaning on Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman to carry the offense. While the Steelers should rack up enough points and all-purpose yardage to keep Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace well fed, Mendenhall projects as the premier Week 16 fantasy start on Pittsburgh's side. St. Louis allows a league-high 153.4 rushing yards per game, and third-down back Mewelde Moore's (MCL sprain) absence will likely lead to more passing-game usage for Mendenhall. Just don't outthink yourself when it comes to Brown and Wallace. They will be open throughout Saturday's game.

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Rams 7

Minnesota @ Washington

Chris Wesseling thoroughly broke down Washington's Week 16 matchup from a passing-game standpoint in this week's edition of Waiver Wired. The Vikings' secondary has been so wrecked by injuries that opposing receivers have no trouble getting open to all areas of the field. More concerning is the start-ability of Roy Helu, who is battling an array of late-season injuries after four weeks of averaging 28 touches per game. With his workload likely to decrease in a matchup against Minnesota's top-ten run defense, Helu should be thought of as more of a flex option than must-start RB2. Evan Royster, who has 16 carries over the past two games, figures to play a more prominent role than usual. This isn't to recommend benching Helu, but there are reasons for concern. Working in Helu's favor is the fact that the Redskins' offense should move the ball consistently against the Vikings, even if it's mostly through the air. He projects to have scoring chances.

The Vikings' Week 15 offensive performance was anemic against the Saints. Minnesota lost the time-of-possession battle 39 to 21, and fell behind 35-13 on the scoreboard by the third quarter. Some fluky box-score numbers resulted, as Toby Gerhart led the Vikings in receiving and scored twice on short grabs. Fantasy owners of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin need to overlook last week's game and start their studs as they normally would. Now off the injury report, Peterson's workload should be restored in what projects as a closer, more competitive game. Gerhart won't be a fantasy option. Harvin is also 100% healthy and remains Christian Ponder's first read on the vast majority of passing plays. Peterson is a top-five running back and Harvin a top-15 receiver.

Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Vikings 20

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Denver @ Buffalo

Coming off what seemed like a boom-or-bust Week 15 throughout fantasy land, several proven studs are in shake-off-last-week mode heading into Week 16. Willis McGahee is among them. A full participant in practice all this week, McGahee's reduced workload in last Sunday's loss to New England was largely attributable to a three-score deficit in the second half. Lance Ball plays more in passing situations, and the Broncos were in shotgun-spread formations for the majority of the final two quarters. McGahee is primed for a breakout week in a game the Broncos should be able to control on the ground. The Bills rank 29th against the run, permit 4.85 yards a carry, and are allowing an average of more than one rushing touchdown per game. There aren't many teams in the league that set up better on paper for a run-oriented Broncos club to pound into submission.

On Buffalo's side, Stevie Johnson is likely to spend the vast majority of Saturday's game in Broncos shutdown cornerback Champ Bailey's coverage. While Johnson's precise route running makes him a difficult cover for even the game’s best corners, Bailey has held several more gifted wide receivers than Johnson to subpar stat lines. Vincent Jackson (2-25, 3-34), Dwayne Bowe (2-17), Santonio Holmes (4-39), and Brandon Marshall (6-61) have all been held scoreless by Bailey this season. Whereas C.J. Spiller has played well enough lately to be a recommended fantasy start against Denver's suspect run defense, Johnson has a matchup to avoid if possible.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 19

Oakland @ Kansas City

Michael Bush's per-play production has slowed in recent games, likely due at least in some part to massive workloads taking a toll on his 245-pound frame. His usage hasn't decreased, though. Bush has at least 25 touches in two straight games and gets one of the most favorable matchups he's seen all year when the Raiders visit Arrowhead. In six career games against the Chiefs, Bush has poured out 497 yards on 86 carries (5.78 YPC), complemented by nine catches for 73 yards. Kansas City has been as susceptible to the run as ever this season, ranking 24th in the league in rush defense. Fantasy owners of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore should be concerned with the Chiefs' press-man coverage that stifled Green Bay's Week 15 passing attack, but Bush is a safe play with plenty of upside. I like Bush as a top-seven running back in fantasy title week.

I'm not mistaking Kyle Orton for Joe Montana, but during last week's Upset of the Year, Orton was as sharp as a quarterback possibly can be less than a month removed from a waiver claim. He spread the ball around generously in his first start with the Chiefs, but history hints that Orton will gradually become smitten with Dwayne Bowe just as he did Brandon Marshall and Brandon Lloyd in Denver. I'd like this matchup for Bowe even if Tyler Palko was still quarterbacking Kansas City. In nine career meetings with the Raiders, Bowe has racked up 60-plus yards and/or scored a touchdown eight times. He's averaging 75 yards in the last four. Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin remain fantasy non-factors for title week, but Bowe comes in as a borderline WR1.

Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Chiefs 20

4:05PM ET Game

San Diego @ Detroit

There aren't five NFL running backs playing at a higher level than Ryan Mathews entering fantasy championship week. Mathews has amassed 595 yards on his last 116 carries (5.13 YPC) and over 100 total yards in four straight games. Running with exceptional balance and acceleration on the edges, Mathews was the key to San Diego's Week 15 win over Baltimore, also finishing with four red-zone touches and executing twice on carries around the goal line. While Mike Tolbert still excels in the change-of-pace back role, Mathews has clearly taken over as the Chargers' feature runner. Detroit ranks 27th versus the run and allows a league-high 5.15 yards per rushing attempt, so this is a favorable matchup for Mathews. He's an easy top-ten running back play in Week 16.

None of Saturday's games has more projected scoring than Bolts-Lions, with Vegas setting the over/under at 52 points. Fire up your San Diego and Detroit skill players. ... Many owners were burned by Kevin Smith in Week 15, but the Lions' coaching staff stuck with him. Smith dominated the workload, receiving 15 carries while no other Detroit back exceeded one. Maurice Morris was a non-factor, playing one solitary offensive snap. Smith was in for 71. Game flow cost Smith some touches and his ankle wasn't 100 percent, but he's six more days removed from the original injury and again has a favorable matchup in a projected high-scoring affair. Fantasy owners still alive need to stick with Smith against San Diego's No. 21 run defense. He's a true every-down back, will be healthier after a full practice week, and offers multi-touchdown upside versus the Bolts.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Chargers 28

4:15PM ET Games

Philadelphia @ Dallas

In a late game, at less than 100%, and perhaps even facing the possibility of being held out altogether, Felix Jones isn't worth the risk in fantasy leagues this week. Eagles-Cowboys will be worthless from Dallas' perspective if the Giants beat the Jets at 1ET. Should the Jets win, on the other hand, the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a defeat of Philly. "We're all interested in how (Giants-Jets) comes out, and that's natural," Jerry Jones said this week. "I'm certainly looking with interest at that ball game." Felix barely practiced this week due to a tight hamstring and is the most likely Cowboy to either be benched or rested early should they enter the game with nothing on the line. If Jones does not play, Sammy Morris would carry the load against the Eagles' No. 17 run defense. We won't know the Cowboys' starting tailback until around 3ET Saturday, but Morris would emerge as a quality flex play if Jones is scratched. My bet is that we will see heavy doses of Morris regardless of Felix's availability. It seems a bit complicated, but if the Giants win and Felix Jones is active against the Eagles, your best fantasy approach would be to simply look elsewhere.

Asante Samuel's (hamstring) is big news for Tony Romo and the Cowboys' passing game because Samuel has been Philadelphia's top defensive back all season. Eagles coach Andy Reid revealed that Samuel suffered a setback with the hamstring on Tuesday, and the team was forced to rule him out on a league-wide short week. "We're trying to rehab it and see how it goes from there," Reid said. Samuel is strictly a left corner, the position opposite which Miles Austin lines up in base formations and Dez Bryant faces in most three-wide sets. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would be a significant downgrade as Samuel's replacement. I like Austin's chances of leading Dallas in Week 16 receiving, and Bryant was already an every-week fantasy starter. Laurent Robinson remains a high-risk WR3. I expect him to see quite a bit of Nnamdi Asomugha in coverage.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24

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San Francisco @ Seattle

We won't pretend to know if Marshawn Lynch will become the first to score a rushing touchdown against the 49ers this season. What we do know is that far better runners than Lynch have been shut down by San Francisco all year. LeSean McCoy (18 rushing yards), Ray Rice (59 yards), Beanie Wells (33 yards), Rashard Mendenhall (64), and Steven Jackson (19) have been among them. Lynch himself was held to 33 scoreless yards on 13 carries by the Niners in Week 1, and his lack of passing-game usage prevents Lynch from compensating in fantasy scoring when he isn't flirting with 100 rushing yards and/or finding pay dirt. Lynch has had a nice contract year, but in all likelihood only another monster workload will buoy his Week 16 fantasy stats. He's not going to average many yards per carry, and I'm betting against Lynch getting into the end zone.

The final in the aforementioned Seahawks-49ers Week 1 game was 33-17 Niners, but 26 of San Francisco's points occurred on special teams. Neither of these teams has enough offense to create a shootout situation, and Vegas showed its awareness by setting a weakling 36.5-point over/under. Frank Gore is a respectable RB2 against Seattle's No. 11 run defense, but otherwise 49ers skill players are hit-or-miss options with low-looking upsides because of a likely low-scoring affair. Rosenthal and Wesseling rank Michael Crabtree 25th among fantasy receivers for Week 16. Vernon Davis is the No. 8 tight end, although I personally prefer him over Brandon Pettigrew.

Score Prediction: 49ers 16, Seahawks 14

Sunday Night Football

Chicago @ Green Bay

After re-watching Packers-Chiefs, I came away convinced that Green Bay's first loss was largely attributable to K.C.'s absolute best game of the season. CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers put clamps on James Jones and Greg Jennings in man coverage. The Packers suffered multiple in-game O-Line injuries and Tamba Hali had Aaron Rodgers on the run and/or seemingly was in his face every other play. I expect the Pack to be out for blood with a take-no-prisoners approach at home versus Chicago. While it's conceivable that Green Bay would rest some starters after a big early lead, keep in mind that Mike McCarthy's team has not yet clinched postseason home-field advantage. They can do so with a victory, or a 49ers loss to Seattle at 4:15ET. Still, McCarthy's game plan will undoubtedly target a Sunday night win. Lest we hear otherwise by Sunday morning, the best advice is to start Packers skill players as you normally would.

Fantasy expectations need to be checked for Kahlil Bell, but his workload should not be a problem at Lambeau. Matt Forte (knee) and Marion Barber (calf) will both miss the game, leaving Bell to operate in every-down fashion with only undrafted rookie Armando Allen available for carries in reserve. Bell is a replacement-level talent, running his forty in the 4.7s. But he is a versatile back, trusted in pass protection and to play in all formations regardless of game flow, down, and distance. Even if the Bears don't keep Saturday night's game particularly close -- and I suspect they won't -- Bell could rack up receptions from Josh McCown in throw-happy comeback mode. Make room for Bell in your PPR league. In standard settings, he's still quite appealing with potential touch the football 30-plus times if Chicago does stay competitive. Workloads like that are incredibly rare.

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Bears 17

Monday Night Football

Atlanta @ New Orleans

This is a Monday game to wait for where possible. Falcons-Saints has an over/under of 52.5, the largest of Week 16. Since Matt Ryan broke into the league in 2008, six of the seven Falcons-Saints games have produced 49 or more points. Roddy White, Julio Jones, Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, and even slumping Michael Turner have favorable outlooks in the fantasy championship. You want to start guys in high-scoring games, and this is the safest bet for one of the week.

In general, the same holds true for the Saints' passing game. Drew Brees, Marques Colston, and Jimmy Graham are fantasy plays to feel very good about in a matchup like this. Lance Moore is worth a long look as a WR3. The backfield is stickier, but at least we know the roles of the players going in. With Mark Ingram (turf toe) still out, Pierre Thomas works the screen game and is the favorite for goal-line opportunities. Darren Sproles has consistently led the group in yards from scrimmage. Chris Ivory does his damage between the twenties, and as a "keep-the-lead" back sees an uptick in workload when the Saints are winning. I like Sproles as a flex option in PPR leagues. I like Thomas as a flex in standard formats. I don't like Ivory's chances of scoring, but he's a safe bet for 50-75 yards.

Score Prediction: Saints 37, Falcons 30
 

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