Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Week 16 Injury Questions
It’s a bad week for game-time decisions. It’s also a bad week for almost every team to be on a short week.

Fantasy Super Bowls will hinge on a lot of stars that are feeling less than 100 percent. Felix Jones, Vincent Jackson, Roy Helu, Ben Roethlisberger, Chris Johnson and Marion Barber have all thrown wrenches into best-laid plans. It’s turned what is usually a “play your best guys” time of year into an intense management week.

As we get set for Week 16, we’ll have our eye out for all the news on the injury front.

Of course, the Rotoworld News Page will be humming all Sunday morning to bring you official word on all your injured players ahead of kickoff. And to make sure you’re prepared, read every word of these rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Weaseling in combination Evan Silva’s mind-blowing Matchup Column.

If you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft here. And if you don’t have the Rotoworld News App, you are missing an edge.

OK, let’s get to the hurt folks:

SATURDAY 1PM GAMES
BRONCOS at BILLS
* Willis McGahee (hamstring) will be a full go.
* Stevie Johnson (groin) is relatively healthy but expected to see plenty of Champ Bailey.
* Scott Chandler (ankle) is ready to go as a high-risk desperation play.

DOLPHINS at PATRIOTS
* Anthony Fasano (concussion) is out.
* Wes Welker (knee) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (illness) are full gos.
* Deion Branch isn’t an option as a true game-time call.

BROWNS at RAVENS
* Anquan Boldin (knee) is out for the rest of the regular season. Lee Evans and Torrey Smith will start, but expect a run-heavy attack out of the Ravens.
* Colt McCoy (concussion) remains out, giving Seneca Wallace another start.
* Montario Hardesty (calf) is healthy, but is now behind Chris Ogbonnaya on the depth chart.
* Mohamed Massaquoi (foot) will play but is off the fantasy radar.

JAGUARS at TITANS
* Chris Johnson’s (ankle) workload will likely depend on how he performs in the game. If he’s cutting well, he’ll push for 15-20 touches. There’s enough upside here to assume risk.
* Nate Washington (ankle) appears as healthy as he’s been in weeks.
* Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) is coming off a long week and is ready to go.
* Marcedes Lewis (hamstring) isn’t at 100 percent and off the fantasy radar.
* Mike Thomas (concussion) is listed as probable but still may not play. This entire passing game is hands off.

RAIDERS at CHIEFS
* Jacoby Ford (foot) and Darren McFadden (foot) remain out.
* Michael Bush (shoulder) will be fine despite a questionable tag.
* Denarius Moore (foot) appears healthy, but is a high-risk option considering his recent history.

GIANTS at JETS
* Jake Ballard (knee) is out. Travis Beckum gets the nod.
* Mario Manningham (knee) isn’t going to play either. Ramses Barden will move into three-wide sets.
* Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) will start as a weak play. He’ll share the load with Brandon Jacobs.
* Joe McKnight (shoulder) is a game-time call. Yawn.
* Shonn Greene (rib) is practicing in full.

VIKINGS at REDSKINS
* Roy Helu (ankle, toe) is expected to play despite being at less than 100 percent. Barring an in-game setback, 15-20 touches should be in the cards.

BUCS at PANTHERS
* Arrelious Benn (concussion) is back to take his starting job back from Dezmon Briscoe.

CARDINALS at BENGALS
* A.J. Green (shoulder) is ready to go despite last week’s separation. Get him going.
* Kevin Kolb (head) is officially questionable as he‘s still not at 100 percent. The Cards are reportedly leaning toward John Skelton anyway.
* Beanie Wells (knee) will play through yet another questionable tag.

RAMS at STEELERS
* Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is out. Charlie Batch gets the nod, downgrading Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace.
* Sam Bradford (ankle) and A.J. Feeley (thumb) are both out again. It’s the Kellen Clemens show.
* Mewelde Moore (knee) is out. Isaac Redman will get all the work behind Rashard Mendenhall.


SATURDAY 4PM GAMES
EAGLES at COWBOYS
* Felix Jones (hamstring) is headed for a game-time call. Chauncey Washington has been called up from the practice squad. Complicating matters is the fact that the results of the 1pm games could result in the Cowboys not needing to win this game. There’s too much risk here to stomach. Felix can not be in any fantasy lineups.
* Laurent Robinson (shoulder) will play again as the No. 3 receiver.
* Jeremy Maclin (hamstring) is ready to go again.

49ERS at SEAHAWKS
* Ted Ginn (ankle) is a game-time call. Braylon Edwards will be active if Ginn is inactive.
* Doug Baldwin (ankle) apparently had a setback in practice this week. He’s not worth chasing.

CHARGERS at LIONS
* Vincent Jackson (groin) is headed for a game-time call. Owners waiting on him can protect themselves by adding Vincent Brown.
* Kevin Smith (ankle) put in a full week of practice. He’s close to 100 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
BEARS at PACKERS
* Marion Barber (calf) is not expected to play. Kahlil Bell is going to be in for all the work he can handle.
* James Starks (knee) and Brandon Saine (concussion) are ready to go as part of a four-headed monster at running back.
* Greg Jennings (knee), Jay Cutler (thumb) and Matt Forte (knee) are all out.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
FALCONS at SAINTS
* Mark Ingram (toe) is expected to sit again. Chris Ivory gets the call as the power back once again.
* Michael Turner (groin) rested some in practice this week but is fine.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
Is anyone really still alive in Survivor? If so, there are a lot of good options this week.

Baltimore is off a bad loss and home against the Browns. The Steelers similarly off an ugly loss and home against the Rams. And the Titans are also off a crippling loss and now get the Jags’ inept offense at home.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
In the Super Bowl of a 10-team non-PPR league with bloated starting rosters, I’ve got a whole mess going on at the flex spot thanks to game-time calls.

After much thought, it’s come down to one of these four: Vincent Jackson, Felix Jones, Antonio Brown and Laurent Robinson.

I’ve ruled out Jones for reasons stated above. He’s not 100 percent and the Cowboys might not need this game. I’ve ruled out Brown as the Steelers figure to go extremely run-heavy with Charlie Batch at the helm. The good news here is that leaves me with two guys playing at 4 pm.

If Jackson (groin) is active, I’ll roll with his upside in a dome against the Lions’ banged-up secondary. The risk of in-game aggravation is there, but he’ll break off multiple big plays if he can just make it through three quarters. If Jackson is inactive, I’ll have to roll with Robinson even though he’ll likely be seeing plenty of Nnamdi Asomugha when on the field.

 

[HacheMan]

Au Revoir, AP

Good thing most fantasy leagues decided their championship this week, because Saturday’s festivities resulted in a roster-wrecking collection of injuries, none more significant than the torn ACL and MCL suffered by Adrian Peterson on Saturday.

The upshot of that knee injury – beyond obviously ending AP’s season – is that the Vikings RB isn’t guaranteed to be ready for game action when next season begins. In the meantime, Toby Gerhart (11 rush, 109 yds) is slated to start against Chicago in Week 17, and could be the Vikings’ starting RB at the outset of 2012.

In other injury news…

During his least productive day of the season (14 touches, 45 yds), LeSean McCoy limped off the field and went to the locker room for X-rays on his ankle. He was, however, able to return to the game, and the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News quotes Andy Reid as calling it just a “tweaked” ankle. Nevertheless, we could see plenty of Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis if the Eagles decide to exercise caution in Week 17.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Tony Romo left Sunday’s game in the first quarter due to a bruised hand, but is expected to play in Dallas' must-win Week 17 matchup against the Giants. Also exiting early for the Cowboys (who made little effort to win an ultimately meaningless game against the Eagles): Felix Jones (4 rush, 24 yds), who was pulled for precautionary reasons but could be in line for a 20-plus touch workload in Week 17.

Meanwhile, Raiders beat writer Steve Corkran suggested Saturday night that Darren McFadden and Jacoby Ford should both return from their foot injuries in Week 17. Good news for Oakland’s playoff hopes, but little consolation for fantasy owners, who saw McFadden explode for 761 total yards and five TDs through Week 6 before his season gradually spiraled down the commode. Run DMC should enter 2012 as a high fantasy draft pick, but he’ll also continue to be a major injury risk.

Kevin Smith (17 touches, 61 yds, two TDs) produced a useful stat line despite laboring through his lingering right ankle issue, which could result in some increased work for Maurice Morris next week.

Vincent Jackson (2 rec, 41 yds) was visibly hindered by his groin injury on Saturday, and with the Chargers eliminated from the playoffs, there’s a solid chance he'll end up sitting out next week.

Meanwhile, Christian Ponder’s early exit due to a concussion may have prompted a surprise QB controversy for Minnesota,as Joe Webb (4-for-5, 84 yds, two TDs; 5 rush, 34 yds, TD) led the Vikings to a win over Washington, prompting Leslie Frazier to tell ESPN 1500 Twin Cities that “Some of the things he does, man, and what it does to the rest of our team – you can't ignore it. It's something we're going to take a real hard look at as we go forward.” With Ponder’s status iffy, Webb could get an extended audition against the Bears in Week 17.

Jeremy Maclin (5 rec, 72 yds, TD) took a shot to the ribs, but was able to play through it. It’s unclear whether this will be a lingering issue for Maclin, whose touchdown catch on Saturday was his first since Week 8.

Reggie Bush recorded his fourth consecutive 100-yard game (22 rush, 113 yds), but missed the end of Saturday’s game due to a knee injury. However, Bush told the Palm Beach Post that he doesn’t believe the injury is serious, so it sounds like he could attempt to add to his career-high 1,086 rushing yards in a tough matchup against the Jets next week.

Other Injury Notes: James Starks aggravated his right ankle injury on Sunday night … Lance Moore is being called questionable for Monday Night Football after a hamstring injury at practice on Friday … Chris Johnson (15 rush, 56 yds) had a pain-killing injection in his ankle prior to Week 16, but should play in the regular season finale … Maurice Jones-Drew missed a few plays after aggravating his ankle injury, but should be fine for Week 17 … Texans coach Gary Kubiak says that Andre Johnson (hamstring) could return next Sunday … Kevin Kolb told the FOX broadcast team that he’s still dealing with concussion symptoms, suggesting that John Skelton will get another start in Week 17 … Percy Harvin went to the locker room early with an arm injury, but was able to return … Daniel Thomas (2 rush, 3 yds) left with a knee injury in the second quarter … Per beat writer Matt Maiocco, 49ers TE Delanie Walker was hospitalized with what's believed to be a broken jaw … Ben Obomanu left with a knee injury … Lavelle Hawkins sustained an ankle injury … Legedu Naanee left with a foot injury.

Editor’s note: If you want to draft a new fantasy team, check out SnapDraft here.

Defense/Offensive Line Injuries: Dolphins shutdown CB Vontae Davis left with an elbow injury in the fourth quarter … The already depleted Patriots’ offensive line lost LG Logan Mankins to a knee injury, leaving Tom Brady under heavy pressure against Miami … ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that Dolphins LT Jake Long has a torn right biceps … Broncos SS Brian Dawkins’ most recent neck injury could be career-ending, according to the Denver Post … The Steelers lost C Doug Legursky to a shoulder injury … Bills LT Demetrius Bell left with a knee injury … Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson left with a strained Achilles’ … Cowboys LB Sean Lee sustained a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter.

On a Personal Note: I lost the championship match in my main league for the third year in a row, and therefore must name my team The Buffalo Bills in 2012 (though I’m thinking I’ll probably go with the singular -- and far creepier -- Buffalo Bill instead).

 

[HacheMan]

Playoff Permutations

Jonathan Comey of ColdHardFootballFacts.com compares Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 season to the great outlier years of Babe Ruth, Sandy Koufax, Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky, and Michael Jordan.

Whereas the years of 1970-1977 produced just five 5-touchdown games, Rodgers became the fifth QB this season to produce five scores, tying the franchise single-game record against the Bears. It’s the fifth game this season he’s scored at least four times, leaving his 45 touchdowns behind only the magical seasons of Tom Brady (2007), Peyton Manning (2004), and Dan Marino (1984). His 4,643 yards are the most in franchise history, surpassing Lynn Dickey’s 4,458 from 1983.

It gets better. Rodgers’ 9.25 YPA is the highest average by any QB in history with at least 400 pass attempts. His 45:6 TD-to-INT is the best ratio of any QB with 4,000+ passing yards while the 122.5 passer rating tops Manning’s 121.1 as the best ever. Rodgers also moved past Steve Young (1994) and Brady (2010) with a 100+ passer rating in 13 games. If the Packers win the Super Bowl, the 2011 MVP season will top the list of the greatest of all time.

Becoming the first team in 39 years to score at least 30 points in a game while committing no turnovers or penalties, the Packers are the fifth defending champ since 1990 to lock up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. No longer gunning for the perfect season, the Packers can afford to rest their most valuable players versus the Lions in the season finale. We’ll have a better idea on the playing time of Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley later in the week. For now, it’s a good idea for those in Week 17 leagues to grab Matt Flynn and Randall Cobb.

While Green Bay landed homefield advantage, Week 16 saw the elimination of the Eagles, Bears, Chargers, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Chiefs from playoff contention. How does the action from NFL's holiday weekend shake out for Week 17?

Playoff Permutations

The Patriots must beat the Bills to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. As usual, Bill Belichick will play his starters for all -- or at least the majority of -- the game. The Jets need the Bengals to lose (vs. BAL), the Titans to lose (at HOU), and either the Broncos (vs. KC) or Raiders (vs. SD) to lose to earn a wild card berth. Even then, it's certainly not a given that the Jets will go into Miami to knock off a frisky Dolphins squad.

The Bengals can clinch that final wild card spot with a win over the Ravens. Failing that, the door is open for the Titans, Jets, and Raiders while Baltimore locks up a first-round bye. Should the Ravens lose, the Steelers can steal the No. 2 seed with a victory at Cleveland -- likely with Charlie Batch under center again. The Ravens and Steelers will have to play to win.

The Texans are locked into the No. 3 seed, which means the finale versus the Titans is meaningless from their perspective. Arian Foster can't be expected to play a full game. The coaching staff would like to get a "tune-up" in for Andre Johnson, but that now seems unlikely. The safer play is to wait for the playoff opener against the Bengals or Jets -- if not a rematch with Tennessee. Even if the Jets win, the Titans can get in with losses by the Bengals and the Raiders or Broncos. Should Denver and Oakland both win, the Titans can still get in with a loss by the Bengals and Jets.

The Broncos clinch the AFC West title with a win or a Raiders loss. Even if Denver wins, Oakland can land that wild card berth with a win and a Bengals loss plus Titans loss or a Bengals loss plus Jets win.

The NFC East comes down to a winner-take-all bout between the Giants and Cowboys at New York. Both teams will go all out for the win.

The Lions have clinched a wild card berth. The only question is whether will square off against the Saints, Falcons, Giants, Cowboys, or 49ers. Detroit may gun for the No. 5 seed, but they can rest starters if they so choose. Joique Bell was signed off New Orleans' practice squad, perhaps a sign that Kevin Smith's ankle will get a well-deserved rest in Week 17.

The Falcons clinched a wild card berth with the Bears' loss Sunday night. Since Atlanta still has a shot at the NFC South crown with a Monday night win, the Saints-Panthers will be moved to 4:15 p.m. ET to coincide with the Falcons-Bucs game. Even if the Saints prevail Monday night, the season finale still holds meaning. If the 49ers find a way to lose at St. Louis, New Orleans would earn the first-round bye.

As much as San Francisco may want to rest Frank Gore, the Niners still have to win versus the Rams if the Saints emerge victorious on Monday Night Football. Kendall Hunter won't be guaranteed 15 touches in the finale.

Game Balls

Matthew Stafford - The first draft pick of the Jim Schwartz era completed 29-of-36 passes for 373 yards and three TDs as the Lions clinched their first playoff appearance since 1999. It’s fitting that Stafford went to the same high school as Hall of Fame QB Bobby Layne, as he’s set to "launch the best era of Lions football since the 1950s” after tossing a franchise record 36 TDs in his age-23 season. “Did you see the first [offensive] play of the game?” center Dominic Raiola asked, referring to Stafford’s 46-yard bomb to Calvin Johnson. “That was our attitude. It was, ‘You know what – let’s let it all hang out. Let’s not play conservative.’ The kid was on fire [Saturday]. You’re seeing why we drafted him No. 1 overall.”

Cam Newton - To suggest that Andy Dalton was giving Newton a run for rookie of the year honors was laughable at mid-season and absurd now. Newton passed Peyton Manning for the most passing yards (3,893) by a rookie in NFL history and joined Kordell Stewart as the only players with at least 20 passing TDs and 10 rushing TDs. Newton has accounted for 34 touchdowns overall this season, more than double the touchdowns of 2010 No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford’s entire team. Any way you slice it, Carolina’s new team leader has authored the greatest statistical season in rookie history. Expect Newton to follow in Stafford’s footsteps next season, as the Panthers have risen from 2-8 to 6-9 similar to the Lions’ run to close out last season.

Victor Cruz - Give Darrelle Revis credit; he dominated his matchup with Hakeem Nicks on Saturday after continuing the tired NFL trend of feigning like he didn’t know the name of fantasy’s No. 3 receiver. Antonio Cromartie, who spent the week disparaging Cruz as less than a Pro Bowl talent, was the corner charged with covering the breakout star. Cruz went on to burn the vaunted Jets secondary for 164 yards, highlighted by a record-tying 99-yard touchdown where he left Cromartie in the dust with a change-of-direction move. Undrafted and held catchless as a rookie, Cruz’s 1,358 yards moved him past Amani Toomer’s 1,343 as the most by a Giants receiver in franchise history.

Jared Cook - Before Week 15, Cook was an athletic tease calling to mind former Titans second-rounder Ben Troupe. With a skill-set that looks at times like part Antonio Gates and part Jermichael Finley, Cook’s 169 yards versus the Jaguars are the most by a tight end since Dallas Clark’s 183 early in the 2009 season and the 11th-most by a tight end since the 1970 merger. NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi believes Cook “can really be a force in the passing game and should be more consistent each week” in 2012. Cook’s emergence, along with the return of Kenny Britt, leaves explosive rookie Jake Locker as my No. 1 Dynasty “buy” of the offseason.

Steven Jackson - Jackson broke the 100-yard mark against the Steelers shutdown run defense as just the seventh running back in NFL history to top 1,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons. Behind S-Jax’s performance, the Rams became the first team since at least 1940 to get shut out by 27+ points while rushing for 164+ yards and committing no turnovers.

<!--RW-->No Luck for Us

Vikings RB Toby Gerhart, runner-up for the 2009 Heisman Trophy at Stanford, texted Yahoo’s Mike Silver after Sunday’s win over the Redskins: “Yeah, no Luck for us I guess.” The Vikes are out of the race for Cardinal QB Andrew Luck, leaving the Colts and Rams to battle it out in the season finale. If the Colts lost to the Jaguars, the No. 1 pick is theirs. If they win and the Rams lose, St. Louis will have to decide whether to roll with Luck or trade the pick for a windfall to surround Sam Bradford with a much-needed talent upgrade.

Injury Ward

Tony Romo, Cowboys - Hand
Christian Ponder, Vikings - Concussion
Adrian Peterson, Vikings - Knee
LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Ankle
Reggie Bush, Dolphins - Knee
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins - Knee
James Starks, Packers - Ankle
Vincent Jackson, Chargers - Groin
Jeremy Maclin, Eagles - Ribs
Ben Obomanu, Seahawks - Knee
Lavelle Hawkins, Titans - Ankle
Legedu Naanee, Panthers - Foot
Delanie Walker, 49ers - Jaw
Patrick Peterson, Cardinals - Achilles

Check out Matt Stroup’s “Au Revoir AP” for in-depth analysis of Sunday’s M*A*S*H unit fallout.

Awards Section

Stat of the Week: Donald Driver is the first Packers receiver to reach 10,000 yards. As former Packers exec and current NFL Business Analyst for ESPN, Andrew Brandt, points out: “Not bad for a guy who came in as our 10th receiver. Kept passing bigger, stronger guys.”

Runner-Up: Watch for the continued decline of Michael Turner Monday night in New Orleans. Per NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi, the Falcons are last in the NFL at gaining at least four yards rushing on first down. Atlanta also has the NFL’s second-most rushes for negative yardage.

Quote of the Week: Brandon Jacobs in a post-game confrontation with Rex Ryan: "It's time to shut up, fat boy. … You’re talking to the wrong Giant because I’ll kick your ass.” Jacobs said Rex went after him on the field “the way his pops went after Gilbride.”

Runner-Up: Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham on Calvin Johnson’s nickname: “Megatron or whatever, they need to change that name to something different because he probably could kick the crap out of Megatron.”

Second Runner-Up: From NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi: “I don't care where the Vikings drafted Christian Ponder, the best quarterback on the team is Joe Webb. He is a playmaker and should get better and better. The Vikings need to build around Webb, not Ponder."

Tweet of the Week: From @ChrisBurke_SI, during the Giants-Jets game: “Mark Sanchez = Human lump of coal.”

Runner-Up: Suspended Steelers pass rusher and hitman James Harrison during the second of two power outages during Monday Night Football: “If I cant play, then can't nobody play ... Lights out!"

Second Runner-Up: From sports agent and former NFL player @RalphCindrich: “Spent a ton of money of my son's education. Private school, Bucknell U, law school, traveled the world. He's watching ‘Jackass!’ Ugh!#Sick.”

Third Runner-Up: From @bruce_arthur responding to Patriots beat writer @RapSheet: “OK, now it's a holiday party. RT@RapSheet Logan Mankins has taken his pants off on the bench.”

Fantasy MVP of Week 16: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 16: Jared Cook, Titans

Fantasy Rookie of Week 16: Cam Newton, Panthers

Fantasy Disappointment of Week 16: Steve Smith, Panthers

Fantasy Fraud of Week 16: LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers

Fantasy Fluke of Week 16: Dexter McCluster, Chiefs

Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses

1. Patriots
2. Saints
3. Lions
4. Packers
5. Falcons
6. Eagles
7. Cowboys
8. Chargers
9. Giants
10. Panthers
11. Steelers
12. Dolphins
13. Broncos
14. Raiders
15. Ravens

Early Waiver Look

QB: Kyle Orton, Matt Flynn, Joe Webb
RB: Toby Gerhart, Kahlil Bell, Kendall Hunter, Darren McFadden, Evan Royster, Stevan Ridley, Dion Lewis, Ronnie Brown
WR: Malcom Floyd, Hines Ward, Denarius Moore, Randall Cobb, Damian Williams
TE: Jared Cook

 

[HacheMan]

Turner the Decliner

Remember when Michael Turner was known as “The Burner?” That’s almost comical now.

At age 29, Turner is a shell of himself. He’s slow in the open field, can’t cut quick enough and almost always gets taken down by the first defender. Frankly, Turner appears chubby. Tack that on to his annual issue of catching no passes and coming off the field on all third-down plays, and what we have is a typical aging running back situation.

Turner isn’t going to turn his career path around at this point. He’s about to go over 300 carries for the third time in four seasons and his offense will only get better through the air. The artist formerly known as the Burner will be on all my “do not draft” lists once again next year. In fact, he’ll be on my “never draft again” list.

Here are some others running backs on that list as we begin to look to 2012:
* LeGarrette Blount - Runs to contact, can’t catch passes, has fumbling problem and doesn’t play on third downs or when his team is behind.

* Frank Gore - Will be 29 in May, asked to be an exclusive blocker in the pass offense now and quarterback’s limitations creates stacked boxes.

* Maurice Jones-Drew - His unbelievable 2011 campaign defies all logic. He came into the year with a knee injury, plays with the worst passing offense in football, sees eight men in box on every play and is still the league’s leading rusher. The price tag will not be worth the risk going forward. MJD is over 330 touches for the third straight season.

BREES SETS THE RECORD
With a 9-yard touchdown pass to Darren Sproles in the fourth quarter Monday night, Drew Brees set the NFL record for most passing yards in a single season. He passed Dan Marino’s mark of 5,084 yards, set in 1984.

Here’s a crazy thing to think about on Brees: He’s averaging 339.1 passing yards per game this season and has thrown 41 touchdowns. But he’s still fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback, well behind Aaron Rodgers and just back of Cam Newton.

FALCONS at SAINTS RANDOM THOUGHTS
Lance Moore aggravated his hamstring injury in the second quarter and called it a night. … Love the way Julio Jones is willing to go over the middle. He’s explosive and will be better than Roddy White next year. … I don’t know how Tony Gonzalez keeps doing it, but I wouldn’t bet on him doing it again next year. … The Saints figure to be playing to win next week. If they win and the Rams somehow beat the Niners, the Saints will get a first-round bye.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: QUARTERBACKS, WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS
Tony Romo (hand) is going to be fine. … Andre Johnson (hamstring) plans on playing in Week 17. … Mario Manningham (knee) is questionable for Sunday night’s showdown with the Cowboys. … Jake Ballard (knee) admitted he wouldn’t be able to play if the game was Monday. … Anthony Fasano (concussion) still hasn’t been cleared.

INJURY CHART QUICK SLANTS: RUNNING BACKS
Kevin Smith (ankle) appears likely to rest in Week 17. … Chris Johnson (ankle) took an injection to play in Week 16 and figures to do the same Week 17. … James Starks aggravated his ankle. He’ll sit in the season finale. … LeSean McCoy (ankle) is in doubt for the finale.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Lions are expected to play to win in Week 17. They don’t want to go to New Orleans in the first round. … The Lions signed Joique Bell, who would serve as an emergency back if Kevin Smith (ankle) sits Sunday. … Adrian Peterson is a good bet to start the 2012 season on the PUP list after testing revealed ACL, MCL, medial and lateral meniscus damage. … Brandon Saine could be the Packers’ featured back in Week 17 with the Packers resting players. … Stevan Ridley has led the Patriots in carries for two straight weeks. …

WAIVERS
DEFENSIVE SPOT STARTS
Adding a different defense/special teams each week based on matchups is a fine strategy. Here are units that might be on waivers to consider this week for streaming purposes:

1. BRONCOS vs. Chiefs - It’s do-or-die time for the Broncos, who get their old friend Kyle Orton at Mile High. Denver figures to play very aggressively in this one.

2. TITANS at Texans - Houston is locked into the No. 3 seed. They figure to rest most of their plays while the Titans need a win to keep their hopes alive.

3. FALCONS vs. Bucs - The Bucs gave up on their season about a month ago. Going through the motions against this Atlanta defense isn’t going to cut it.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 Waiver Awards

Now a hallowed tradition in Rotoworld's Waiver Wired series, Week 17 brings us the fifth annual waiver awards (for the past few years, click on "Archives" above). To better prepare for the 2012 season, it's fitting that we take a step back and examine the highlights of 2011. It's with that spirit that we bring you this year's award winners.

Readers seeking actual Waiver adds for this week should scroll to the last page of the article for an abbreviated list.

The "Waiver Wired MVP" Award
Goes to … Cam Newton! A recommended pickup in the week preceding the opener -- and again after his sensational Week 1 breakout -- Newton went on to author the best statistical rookie season in NFL history. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft passed Peyton Manning for the most passing yards (3,893) by a rookie in NFL history and joined Kordell Stewart as the only players with at least 20 passing TDs and 10 rushing TDs while finishing behind only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in fantasy points.

The "Enjoy the Playoff Race From Over There, Orton" Award

Goes to … Tim Tebow! After watching Orton stumble to a 4-14 record over his last 18 Denver starts, Tebow was finally inserted into the starting lineup as the No. 1 waiver pickup for Week 6. Along with leading the moribund Broncos to the brink of the playoffs, Tebow has averaged 21 fantasy points per week. That number would place him 11th among QBs for the season, behind only the elite every-week starters.

The "Got Myself Paid" Award

Goes to … Matt Moore! Entering Week 9 with a 1-9 record over his previous 10 NFL starts, Moore turned Miami’s 0-7 season around with five wins in his next seven games. His 89.8 passer rating is behind only Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger among AFC quarterbacks. While Moore is a borderline NFL starter, his strong second-half will keep him in the league for another 7-8 years as at least a high-end backup.

The "Schizophrenic Offense" Award

Goes to … Rex Grossman! The inventor of the fumble-six and master of the pick-six was the most recommended player in this year’s Waiver Wired column, making the list a whopping nine times despite a mid-season benching for John Beck. Despite stretches of ineptitude, Grossman turned in the second-best season of his nine-year career.

The "Billy Volek" Award

Goes to … C.J. Spiller! Moved outside to wide receiver, the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft was off the fantasy radar by mid-season. Spiller was recast as the feature back, though, once Fred Jackson went down with a fractured right fibula in late November. After treading water for a few games, Spiller exploded for 305 yards and three TDs in the all-important Weeks 15 and 16. He finished as fantasy’s No. 2 back, behind only Maurice Jones-Drew, over the final three games.

The “What Took So Long, Shanny?” and “Successful Hype Train” Awards

Go to … Roy Helu! A Rotoworld favorite as far back as the February NFL combine, Helu was hyped relentlessly through the draft process, preseason action, and even as Tim Hightower’s high-upside backup. Helu went to waste on Mike Shanahan’s bench through 11 weeks while Hightower and Ryan Torain combined for 3.64 YPC. Finally anointed as the starter, Helu broke off a trio of 100-yard performances in Weeks 12-14.

The "Where Was His Hype Train?" Award and “Could Have Been a Contender” Awards

Go to … DeMarco Murray! While Helu was hyped from the start of the pre-draft period, Murray was often considered a brittle power back lacking in play-making ability. As soon as Felix Jones went down with a serious ankle injury, though, Murray exploded onto the scene, averaging 170 scrimmage yards and 8.47 YPC in his first three starts. Rather than leading fantasy owners to a championship, Murray ended up being lost for the season with an ankle injury of his own.

The "Outhouse to the Penthouse" Award

Goes to … Donald Brown! After entering the season as a third-stringer and first-round flop lacking toughness and durability, Brown outplayed hot-shot rookie Delone Carter as well as trusted veteran Joseph Addai. The Colts’ lead back throughout the second half of the season, Brown boasts a gaudy 4.9 YPC -- more than a full yard higher than his previous career average.

The "No Jahvid, No Problem" Award

Goes to … Kevin Smith! Waiting for his phone to ring for nine weeks, Smith quickly leapfrogged Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams within two weeks of signing. With Jahvid Best out for the season, Smith stepped right in as a top-10 fantasy back in points per game for the final six weeks.

The "Roster Yo-Yo" Award

Goes to … Stevan Ridley! After a stellar preseason slate, Ridley began outplaying BenJarvus Green-Ellis by early October. It was clear that he possessed more burst and pass-catching ability, but the Pats and Tom Brady trusted Law Firm in pass protection and short-yardage situations. Ridley even fell behind fellow rookie Shane Vereen for a couple of weeks before re-emerging as the top back in Weeks 15 and 16.

The "Voodoo Doll" Award

Goes to … Kendall Hunter! The pint-sized play-maker was recommended six times this season, starting with September when it looked like Frank Gore was washed up. Fantasy owners stashed Hunter throughout the year, sticking pins in Gore’s knee, ankle, and shoulder only to end up bitterly disappointed when the veteran finished a complete season for just the second time in his seven-year career.


<!--RW-->The "Better Late Than Never" Award

Goes to … Laurent Robinson! An injury-prone tease released by the Rams and Chargers after the lockout, Robinson latched on with the Cowboys as Tony Romo’s most trusted receiver in October and November. For a seven-week stretch with eight touchdowns, Robinson was the No. 1 receiver in fantasy.

The “Mario Manningham, We Hardly Knew Ye” Award

Goes to … Victor Cruz! After a slow start, Cruz was the No. 1 pickup for Week 5 on the heels of 110 and 98 yards against the Eagles and Cardinals. He was the hottest fantasy receiver in the league from there, making Manningham an afterthought while breaking Amani Toomer’s single-season receiving yards record.

The "Biggest Tease" Award

Goes to … Denarius Moore! The fifth-round rookie went from training camp sensation to apparent breakout star to Carson Palmer’s top deep threat only to go down with an ankle just as fantasy owners began penciling him in as a high-upside WR2. He still has the talent that inspired this column lede, so don’t be afraid to draft him again next year.

The "Just Pick Him Up Already" Award

Goes to … Jabar Gaffney! A recommended pickup in each of the first three weeks of the season, again at mid-season and twice during the fantasy playoffs, Gaffney finished as fantasy’s No. 23 receiver behind a career-high 919 yards and five touchdowns. Not bad for a role player picked up for the price of Jeremy Jarmon after the lockout.

The "Biggest Waste of a Column Lede" Award

Goes to … Jonathan Baldwin! The troubled first-round rookie drew the lede in our Week 9 column after what appeared to be a breakout game. That Monday night game would turn out to be Baldwin’s only one over 30 yards on his way to a 110th place finish among fantasy receivers.
The "Hoisted with His Own Petard" Award and “I Put Cooley on the Pine” Award

Go to … Fred Davis! Chris Cooley’s nagging knee injury opened the window for Davis to become the best player on the Redskins offense as well as a top-five fantasy tight end through 12 weeks. He was hoist with his own petard by the fantasy playoffs, leaving fantasy owners in the lurch thanks to multiple failed drug tests for marijuana.

The "It's About Friggin' Time" Award

Goes to … Jared Cook! The Titans’ freakishly athletic first-year starter was a recommended pickup six different weeks, starting with the season opener. After back-to-back goose eggs, Cook finally came through 17 receptions and 272 yards in the final two weeks of the playoffs.

I have admittedly suffered more than a few misses along the way as well, but hopefully we served you well with Waiver Wired this season -- if not with one of the award winners above, then with the honorably mentioned Matt Hasselbeck, Jordy Nelson, Nate Washington, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Kahlil Bell, Toby Gerhart, Brent Celek and Jake Ballard. Seasons greetings, and we'll see you here at Waiver Wired next September. For a Cliff's Notes version of waiver options for this week, keep reading.

<!--RW-->QUARTERBACKS

Kyle Orton, Chiefs - Orton has thrown for 299 and 300 yards in back-to-back starts. The Week 17 matchup is inviting against a Broncos defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Matt Flynn, Packers - Both Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy hinted that the Packers will rest key players in Week 17. “As a close friend of Matt, I wouldn’t mind seeing him get an opportunity to play,” said Rodgers, “but I’ll definitely do whatever Mike says.” Our early-week guess is that Green Bay will play its most valuable starters for roughly a quarter before giving way to the backups.

Joe Webb, Vikings - Coach Leslie Frazier raised a few eyebrows with his post-game suggestion that the Vikes will take a “real hard look” at Webb going forward. By Monday afternoon, though, he had backtracked, allowing that Christian Ponder remains the clear starter. The Vikings’ team trainer indicated that Ponder (concussion) is “doing excellent” and “really doesn’t have any symptoms.” Barring a setback, it will likely be Ponder under center in the finale.

RUNNING BACKS

Kahlil Bell, Bears - Starting his first game, Bell racked up 89 yards by halftime while finishing with 159 against the Packers. His fresh legs allowed for impressive burst and tackle-breaking ability after displaying excellent patience at the line of scrimmage. Bell should see every-down work again at Minnesota in the season finale.

Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Just after Adrian Peterson went down with a gruesome injury that will certainly alter his career, the former Heisman runner-up ripped off a 67-yard run on his way to 109 yards on just 11 carries. In three spot starts earlier this season, Gerhart averaged a cool 23.3 touches for 101.6 yards. He’s a top-20 option for Week 17.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots - It looks like a late-season changing of the guard in the Patriots’ backfield. After leading the team in carries in Week 15, Ridley took over the feature back role while playing more snaps than BenJarvus Green-Ellis for the first time all season. He’s even staying in at the goal-line and in passing situations. Averaging 5.0 YPC on the season compared to Law Firm’s 3.7, Ridley is easily the more explosive option as the Pats gear up for the playoffs.

Darren McFadden, Raiders - “Something tells” beat writer Steve Corkran that McFadden and Jacoby Ford will be healthy enough to play against the Chargers in the must-win finale. McFadden’s fantasy viability won’t be known until the Raiders begin practicing on Wednesday. My tentative expectation is that he will be merely a flex option after two months away from the field.

Joique Bell / Maurice Morris, Lions - Locked into a wild card berth, the Lions are expected to rest Kevin Smith’s ankle at Green Bay. Although Morris is the primary backup, Bell was signed off the Saints practice on a two-year deal. If Detroit wants to save the legs of its top two backs, this game would allow for a long look at Bell going into the 2012 season.

Dion Lewis / Ronnie Brown, Eagles - The latest news on LeSean McCoy’s ankle tweak is that coach Andy Reid expects him to play versus the Redskins in the finale. Lewis had passed Brown on the depth chart by the trade deadline only to fall back to third over the final month of the season. While Brown closed out the Week 16 victory with eight rushes for 33 yards, the meaningless finale would represent a prime opportunity for the rookie to showcase his playmaking ability for the 2012 season. I’d roll the dice on Lewis if forced to pick one of the two.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Denarius Moore, Raiders - In his second game back from an ankle injury, Moore racked up nine targets for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. When healthy, he’s been a perfect fit for Carson Palmer’s loose-cannon playing style. Roll him out as a WR3 in a must-win game versus the Chargers.

Randall Cobb, Packers - With the No. 1 seed locked up, it’s fair to believe the snaps of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley will be limited in a meaningless Week 17 matchup with the Lions. Cobb and James Jones should be the primary beneficiaries, leaving both as boom-or-bust WR3 options.

Hines Ward, Steelers - This is purely a speculative move. Ward rejoined the starting lineup in Week 16 in an effort to spoonfeed his quest for 1,000 receptions by season’s end. The venerable veteran needs five more catches to reach the mark against the Browns in Week 17. You can bet it will be high on the list of Mike Tomlin’s priorities for the finale.

TIGHT ENDS

Jared Cook, Titans - The athletic tease finally came through with the 11th-most yards (169) by a tight end since the 1970 merger. He’s followed consecutive shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14 with back-to-back 100-yard performances the past two weeks, sitting at No. 3 among fantasy tight ends in the fantasy playoff weeks of 14-16. Keep him rolling in a must-win game at Houston.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Eagles - Juan Castillo’s crew has a league-leading 20 sacks over the past five weeks and 13 over the past three as a top-five fantasy defense. Only the Steelers have allowed fewer total points than the Eagles’ 36 over the past three weeks. Philly is peaking just in time to face turnover-prone Rex Grossman.

Titans - In a must-win game, the Titans travel to Houston to take on a Texans squad that is already locked into the No. 3 seed. It’s a meaningless game for T.J. Yates, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, so don’t expect to see that trio on the field for more than a series or so.

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy Pro Bowlers

The NFL announced the Pro Bowl selections Tuesday night, generating the usual controversy over who got snubbed and who is undeserving. Yawn.

Let’s get to the fantasy Pro Bowlers, the guys that won owners the cash. Here is my fantasy Pro Bowl team for each conference, based on value -- not raw production:

NFC ALL-VALUE TEM
QB - Cam Newton, Panthers: Aaron Rodgers scored more points, but Newton was a flier pick at the tail end of drafts. It’s a reminder to always invest in a quarterback with elite running ability. The rest is gravy.

RB - Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: Perhaps I need to reassess my evaluation of Lynch’s talent level. He was able to sustain health and power despite carrying the ball 20 or more times in eight straight games.

RB - LeSean McCoy, Eagles: We thought that Michael Vick would serve as the Eagles’ primary goal-line back, thus capping McCoy’s scoring upside. After all, the Eagles historically struggle to grind out tough yards with running backs. Nope. McCoy was dominant inside the 5-yard line, ending up with a league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns.

WR - Jordy Nelson, Packers: When James Jones decided to re-sign with the Pack, Nelson’s sleeper status took a big hit. That allowed him to sneak under the radar while becoming the clear No. 2 receiver opposite Greg Jennings.

WR - Victor Cruz, Giants: While Mario Manningham struggled with inconsistency and health, Cruz emerged as a dominant player out of the slot. It’s not a fluke. Dating back to his preseason glory, the former undrafted free agent always seems to be making big plays.

TE - Jimmy Graham, Saints: Never sleep on ex-basketball players turned tight ends. Especially when their quarterback is Drew Brees. This one was a layup.

AFC ALL-VALUE TEAM
QB - Tom Brady, Patriots: If Tim Tebow would have been given a chance to start the whole year, he would have this honor. Instead, it’s Brady -- who is quietly just 190 yards behind Drew Brees on the season.

RB - Reggie Bush, Dolphins: If you’re betting on players like Bush to transform their careers at age 26, you’ll lose in the long run. But Bush somehow successfully managed to become a feature back and stay healthy in Miami.

RB - Ray Rice, Ravens: Chris Johnson, Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson all were touted ahead of Rice in the preseason. But with Willis McGahee out of the way, Rice predictably cracked double-digit touchdowns and outscored them all.

WR - Wes Welker, Patriots: Who sets career-high numbers at age 30 after tearing an ACL? The slot machine, of course.

WR - A.J. Green, Bengals: Perhaps it was concerns over fellow rookie Andy Dalton that caused Green’s stock to slump on fantasy draft day. Regardless, Green proved to be a steal thanks to remarkable playmaking ability. He easily outscored Julio Jones.

TE - Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: It took some time to wrap our brains around the fact that Gronk and Aaron Hernandez weren’t going to cap each other’s upside. Both play almost every down, serving as the No. 2 and 3 receivers. Of course, Gronk has proven to be unguardable by one mere mortal.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
The Niners’ August signing of Braylon Edwards never made a lot of sense. He didn’t attract any real interest on the open market thanks to his bad knee, declining explosiveness and one-dimensional game. That lone skill -- going deep -- wasn’t going to be utilized by the conservative Niners and check-down captain Alex Smith.

So, Braylon predictably busted, catching just 15 balls for 181 yards and one touchdown in 14 games. He got passed on the depth chart by Kyle Williams and coach Jim Harbaugh didn’t like his practice habits.

Edwards is now subject to waivers, meaning any team can put a claim in for him and have him for the playoffs. It’s unlikely anyone will make the same mistake the Niners did.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) remains a question mark for the finale. The Steelers want him to play 25-30 snaps. … Mewelde Moore (knee) remains out. Isaac Redman will be the backup. … Legedu Naanee (foot) is out for the finale. Brandon LaFell gets the nod. … Kyle Williams sustained a concussion in Week 16. … Lavelle Hawkins (ankle) has a chance to serve as the No. 3 receiver Sunday. … Felix Jones (hamstring) is expected to be a full go for Sunday night’s do-or-die.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Saints aren’t tipping their hand as to if they’ll play their starters Sunday. … Josh McCown will start the finale. … LeGarrette Blount played just seven snaps in Week 16 due to his fumble and ineptitude in the passing game. … The Redskins waived Ryan Torain. … Willis McGahee is vowing to play the whole game Sunday.

 

[HacheMan]

Ranks reax: Tate could shine in odd week

Eric Karabell

Any veteran fantasy football owner playing for a championship in Week 17 knows the drill. Strange things happen this week. You almost need to forget what you know. For example, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is fantasy's top player. He'll likely finish that way. Well, this week his backup appears more valuable. Anyone that owns Houston Texans running back Arian Foster wouldn't think of sitting him, except this week when his backup is more valuable. See what's happening here? Yep, it's odd. We call it Week 17.
I don't fault those who choose to settle their fantasy championships in Week 15 or 16. More power to you. I'm also cool with the leagues that decide to complete things this week. I play in both formats. Congrats to the winners -- and the pending winners! Some people are adamant that this pending week is a joke and cannot be trusted for fantasy normalcy. Well, I don't really agree. You just have to work a bit harder, that's all. No matter how you settle things, there's much to consider. Our Week 17 rankings not only show some oddities, like Matt Flynn being ranked ahead of Rodgers by two staff members (myself included), but we're all over the map in guessing who really will and will not be a factor.

I never speak for colleagues, but I like Ben Tate quite a bit more than others this week. The Texans are set for playoff positioning in the AFC's No. 3 spot, unlike Tom Brady's New England Patriots, three AFC North entrants, a pair of AFC West teams and, I believe, all the NFC playoff-bound teams except the Packers. Yes, Tate hasn't done much the past two weeks. In Week 16, he was provided six rushing attempts against a bad Indianapolis Colts defense, and in sum actually lost one yard. Tate has 15 fantasy points combined since Week 10. But this guy is good, and I don't see the Texans pushing Foster, perhaps not even dressing him for the Sunday game. Tate needs 155 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Say what you will about individual goals for players, but you can't tell me the Texans wouldn't love to get him those yards. Not too many NFL teams get a pair of running backs over 1,000 yards.
Tate is a top-20 running back for me this week, unless we hear later that he too will be limited. It's certainly possible Derrick Ward, a gentleman who knows a bit about multiple rushers reaching 1,000 yards (he and Brandon Jacobs turned the trick for the 2008 New York Giants), will get the chance to show his stuff Sunday. Pay attention to the latest news, even on Sunday morning, and we'll help you the best we can. For now, I like Tate a lot. This has that Week 17 monster performance feel to it, like last season when backups Michael Bush, Joe McKnight and Rashad Jennings produced three of the five 100-yard rushing games in the final week (Foster and Ryan Mathews were the other two).
When it comes to personal accomplishments, fantasy owners shouldn't diminish their potential impact in a week that otherwise means little to some players. For example, look at the running backs who could get to 1,000 rushing yards. There are 13 running backs already there. Shonn Greene of the New York Jets needs one yard. I say he gets it. Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans needs 14 yards. Don't be surprised if he gets 15 and then Jamie Harper gets to have all the fun. Michael Bush of the Oakland Raiders is 89 yards away. I see that Darren McFadden is talkin' about playing this week. Well, I'll believe it when I see it! As any player agent can report, this stuff matters come contract time.
Chris Johnson has been one of the most maddening fantasy options this season, with three games of 130 or more rushing yards, and six others with less than 35 yards rushing. But when he hits 1,000 rushing yards, even though his contract is, ahem, taken care of, it strengthens his considerable résumé. It would be his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season; only the St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson, with seven straight, has more among active folks. I didn't rank Johnson very well this week, but he might be among the best you've got.
Here are some other thoughts I had while ranking for Week 17:

Quarterback: I don't think Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger will play enough to help most fantasy teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers say they want Big Ben to get 20-25 snaps. Awesome. Don't count on 200 passing yards or touchdowns there, especially when the Cleveland Browns are among the best teams at shutting that down. I like both quarterbacks in the Sunday night NFC East title game (Eli Manning over Tony Romo), I think Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer can be trusted and I hedged some on Drew Brees. Will he play the entire game? He's already got the passing yards mark. Don't get too cute and use the Packers' Flynn, either. There are better choices.
Running back: It remains to be seen whether the NFC wild-card teams, the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons, play their studs. I think Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are safe. I think Matt Ryan and Roddy White are safe. I don't think Michael Turner, struggling for a month, necessarily is. I ranked him 16th. I like Toby Gerhart, Cedric Benson and Shonn Greene more than everyone else. Gerhart has been in double digits for fantasy five consecutive weeks. Adrian Peterson isn't in the way. Benson scored two touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. And Greene faces a Dolphins team that hasn't been so dominant against the run lately.
Wide receiver: These rankings are all over the place, but we all agreed you can't trust Andre Johnson on Sunday. He a great player, of course, but I doubt he gets much work. As for Johnson in the actual NFL playoffs, well, I'll have my postseason rankings next week!

 

[HacheMan]

Who Can You Trust?

It’s Week 17, which means that aside from the fact the Bills, Rams and Browns are playing typically meaningless year-end football, the bell has tolled on the large majority of fantasy seasons.

Those who saw the glory are trying to figure out what to do with their winnings, while those who went the way of the buffalo are left wondering what might have been had they not cast their lot with Peyton Manning and Darren McFadden.

But there is a select breed of fantasy footballer who opts to solider on beyond the customary Week 17 deadline, daringly taking their season to the limit in the spirit of true boldness. Either that, or they didn’t examine their league’s settings closely enough in August.

The point is, the season is not over for all fake footballers. Those who are left find a Week 17 landscape akin to a mindfield. Slight injuries will hold out players who’d otherwise go full warrior, while clubs locked into their playoff seed will take many fantasy breadwinners out of the huddle and into over-sized coats on the sideline.

So who can you trust if your league is on the line one week later than it probably should be? Let’s find out.

In: Tony Romo and Felix Jones. The exact kind of players who would be sitting out this week had their team already clinched a postseason berth, Dallas’ run/pass battery can be started with relatively little hesitation against a Giants defense that’s had trouble stopping anyone not named Mark Sanchez of late.

Out: the Green Bay Packers. Both coach Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers have hinted the 14-1 Pack will take it easy against the Lions, and aside from perhaps Brandon Saine and James Jones, there isn’t a safe Packer out there this week. Jermichael Finley (knee), James Starks (ankle) and Randall Cobb (groin) could all see zero snaps.

In: the New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday he plans to go “full speed” against the Panthers as the Saints attempt to earn a first-round bye. His statement can be (mostly) taken at face value, as the Saints took a similar approach to Week 17 last season. Aside from Mark Ingram (toe) and Lance Moore (hamstring), most Saints can be expected to play enough to make a difference in fantasy leagues.

In/out: Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is going to play this weekend after sitting out against the pathetic Rams in Week 16, but will be on a snap count. He’s unlikely to see the field beyond the second quarter. Unless you’re in a two-quarterback league completely devoid of options on the waiver wire, Roethlisberger needs to be affixed to your bench.

Out: Vincent Jackson. Barely able to run in San Diego’s lopsided loss to the Lions last Saturday, the free agent to be has no incentive to soldier through a groin injury that’s going to need weeks, not days, to fully heal.

In/out: Roy Helu (ankle/toe). Helu has said he’ll play against the Eagles, but like he did last week, Washington’s impressive rookie runner is likely to cede a good deal of touches to fellow rookie Evan Royster. If you’re going for a title, you should be looking for a safer bet in your RB2/flex spot.

Out: Arian Foster. Foster should start Sunday, but with the Texans locked into the AFC’s No. 3 seed, he won’t come close to playing a full game.

In/out: Andre Johnson (hamstring). Johnson will be active for the first time since Week 13, but is expected to be limited to 15-20 snaps. If you’re hurting for options at receiver, starting Johnson and hoping for a home run wouldn’t be completely illogical, but it’s not recommended.

In: LeSean McCoy (ankle). McCoy didn’t practice Wednesday, but coach Andy Reid has all but guaranteed McCoy will suit up against the Redskins. McCoy will be someone to monitor closely the next two days, but it sounds like you can count on Shady for Week 17.

In/out: the Atlanta Falcons. Coach Mike Smith has said he won’t rest his starters, but with Atlanta not having a realistic shot at altering its playoff seed and likely to bury the prideless Bucs early, it could be a short afternoon for most Falcons fantasy stalwarts. Julio Jones and Michael Turner, in particular, are poor bets to turn in full days as they nurse minor injuries.

In: the New England Patriots. With the No. 1 seed in the AFC still on the line, coach Bill Belichick will play his starters until the Pats have beaten the Bills into submission, which could be as early as the second quarter. The upside for Tom Brady and his stable of elite pass catchers is high enough, however, that they are worth starting even if they're likely to head to the showers before the fourth quarter.

Out: Kevin Smith (ankle). Smith is practicing fully for the second straight week, but still isn’t 100 percent. If he takes the field against the Packers, it’s unlikely to be for more than a handful of series.

In: Chris Johnson (ankle). CJwhateverK will play through his ankle injury for the second straight weekend, and will do so against a Texans defense likely to pull most of its starters before the second half.

Out: Darren McFadden (foot). Like he’s done every week since Week 9, Oakland’s vexing lead back will watch from the sideline.

 

[The66]

with vincent jackson out...... is vincent brown a fantasy threat? hes been on my bench for weeks

 

[HacheMan]

Week 17 Rankings

If you are still reading this column, you are either a masochist or your league plays in Week 17. Probably both.

I’ve never been a fan of playing this week, when rankings often look crazy because of teams resting starters. The good news is that this season contains fewer situations to worry about than usual. Let’s run through each conferences playoff teams quickly to see whether they are playing their starters.


AFC

1. Patriots: Going all out to win and clinch the No. 1 seed. Play everyone.

2. Ravens: Going all out to get a bye. The Steelers are playing at the same time.

3. Texans: They have nothing to play for, but coach Gary Kubiak says they will approach this game like any other. I believe him. This is a young, growing team looking for confidence. They need to get T.J. Yates snaps. Andre Johnson is expected to be limited because of his injury. Perhaps Arian Foster gets 15 carries instead of 20, but I’d still play him.

4. Broncos: They are playing at the same time as Oakland. Both need to win.

5. Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start, but isn’t expected to finish the game because he’s not healthy. The rest of the team is playing to win. I’d roll with your Steelers wideouts.

6. Insert wild card contender here: They are all going all out of course.


NFC

1. Packers: This is the biggest concern. I don’t expect Aaron Rodgers or a few select starters to play that long. Be wary of your Packers. 2. 49ers: Going all out to get a bye.

3. Saints: New Orleans plays at the same time as the 49ers. They have to try to win. Sean Payton was in the exact same spot last year and played Drew Brees into the fourth quarter. It’s possible they could scoreboard watch and remove Brees if the 49ers get a huge lead in St. Louis. I doubt that will happen.

Payton can’t risk sitting Brees and possibly passing on a bye. The matchup against Carolina makes it easy to play your usual Saints. They could score 30 in the first half. Perhaps sit guys like Pierre Thomas that are on the fence.

4. Cowboys-Giants: Obviously, they are going all out to win.

5. Lions: They will do their best to win the No. 5 seed by beating Green Bay, possibly against backups. Love your Lions.

6. Falcons: This one is interesting. If Detroit wins at 1 p.m. ET, the Falcons will be stuck in the No. 6 seed. If the Lions lose early, the Falcons will be motivated to play all out.

Considering the opponent (Tampa), I’d lean towards playing your Falcons. But a Lions win early in the day makes it a little risky.

On to the final rankings. Thanks to everyone for reading all year. And thanks to Chris Wesseling (@chriswesseling) for his massive contributions to the rankings every week.


Week 17 Quarterbacks


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Cam Newton</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Matthew Stafford</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Tony Romo</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>Probable(hand)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Carson Palmer</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Tim Tebow</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Kyle Orton</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Matt Hasselbeck</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>Probable(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Andy Dalton</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Matt Moore</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Josh McCown</TD><TD>at MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Tarvaris Jackson</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>Probable(pectorals)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Matt Flynn</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Charlie Batch</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Christian Ponder</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>Probable(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>John Skelton</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Dan Orlovsky</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>T.J. Yates</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Seneca Wallace</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Blaine Gabbert</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Kellen Clemens</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


QB Notes: Yes, the Falcons could sit Matt Ryan. Yes, he could put up a game’s worth of stats in one half of action against Tampa. … Aaron Rodgers’ relatively tough matchup and his shoddy offensive line contribute to his low ranking. It’s just a guess, but I doubt he plays past halftime. … I’d worry about Philip Rivers’ protection and Vincent Jackson’s health.

Carson Palmer played well against San Diego last time out. Deion Sanders would call this a “U-Haul” game for the Chargers. Last week took a lot out of that team. … Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw 50 times against arguably the worst secondary in the league. He’s a nice sneaky play. … Tim Tebow isn’t a risky pick. If anything, he’s turned into a safe but low ceiling type of fantasy quarterback. The Chiefs have the defensive talent at cornerback to play man coverage and slow Denver’s offense down.

Big Ben is ranked so low because of reports that he’ll only play 25-30 snaps. … Christian Ponder is back at practice, but you don’t want him in your lineup. … In two QB leagues, Josh McCown isn’t a bad option this week. … Denver’s secondary has holes. Kyle Orton is likely to throw a lot, especially with Jackie Battle hurt. … Last time Alex Smith faced the Rams, San Francisco came out throwing seemingly in an effort to give Smith some confidence. That could happen again.
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Week 17 Running Backs


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Ryan Mathews</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>Questionable(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>Questionable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Probable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Kahlil Bell</TD><TD>at MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Ben Tate</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Probable(finger)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Toby Gerhart</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Evan Royster</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Kendall Hunter</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Chris Ivory</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Mike Tolbert</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Stevan Ridley</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Maurice Morris</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Brandon Saine</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Dexter McCluster</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Lance Ball</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Sammy Morris</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Kevin Smith</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Dion Lewis</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Danny Woodhead</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Joique Bell</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Daniel Thomas</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>Questionable (knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>John Kuhn</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Probable(quadriceps)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Jason Snelling</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Probable(illness)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


RB Notes: Kalhil Bell really showed something against the Packers. He could have a nice future as a primary backup at the very worst. He ran with great patience and surprising burst through the hole. I’d be very confident using him this week. … LeSean McCoy isn’t 100%. This ranking is based on him starting. It could change, so check back over the weekend for an update. … The Chargers struggle against physical opponents. Oakland’s offensive line should manhandle San Diego. Michael Bush is a must start.

Will Arian Foster get 20 carries against the Titans? Probably not. But I’d still have a very tough time sitting him when the Texans plan to play their starters. I’d still expect Foster and Ben Tate to get 15 carries apiece. … Felix Jones ran well in limited work last week. Expect a big workload this time around. The Cowboys say they were just resting him. I’d expect a run-heavy gameplan against the Giants. … Reggie Bush is just about matchup proof these days. And the Jets rush defense isn’t quite as tough a matchup as it used to be.

Chris Johnson would worry me, but he should still be in most lineups. … Evan Royster didn’t blow me away when I re-watched Vikings-Redskins, but he’s capable enough if he gets the ball 20 times. I expect that to happen again this week. … Peyton Hillis is running very well. Well enough to use him as a RB2 if you need help. … It’s tough to trust Stevan Ridley. It’s easy to imagine the Patriots completely going away from him some weeks. … Toby Gerhart was a little better than expected as a starter last time around. You could do worse this week.
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Week 17 Wide Receivers


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Victor Cruz</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Julio Jones</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>A.J. Green</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Stevie Johnson</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>Probable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>Probable(elbow)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Dez Bryant</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Malcom Floyd</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Antonio Brown</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Michael Crabtree</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Laurent Robinson</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>Questionable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Demaryius Thomas</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Denarius Moore</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Darrius Heyward-Bey</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Titus Young</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Plaxico Burress</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>Probable(illness)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Lance Moore</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>Sidelined(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Torrey Smith</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Vincent Brown</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Randall Cobb</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>Questionable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>David Nelson</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Golden Tate</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Doug Baldwin</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Eric Decker</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Damian Williams</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Greg Little</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Brandon LaFell</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Andre Roberts</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Jerome Simpson</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


WR Notes: The Lions have a lot to gain by winning in Green Bay. Don’t worry about starting Calvin Johnson. … Roddy White would be No. 1 if not for the slight chance the Falcons rest their players. I’d still play him in a perfect matchup. … Hakeem Nicks isn’t 100%, but he’s expected to start. … A.J. Green has proven enough times that he can excel in tough matchups to play him this week.

Brandon Marshall had a fine game against Darrelle Revis last time out. The Dolphins aren’t shy about going after Revis. … Malcom Floyd is a great play this week if Vincent Jackson is out, as expected. We’ll add V-Jax to the list if he returns to practice. … Crack NBCSports.com researcher Clifton Pugh points out Eric Decker has only 10 catches in his last seven games. Demaryius Thomas has 22 catches in his last four games. (That kind of exclusive info is why Pugh makes the big bucks.) The Chiefs present a tough matchup for Thomas, but he’s still a decent WR2/3.

Don’t assume the Packers offense will just collapse with Matt Flynn. They have to play someone at wide receiver and James Jones figures to get plenty of snaps. … Jacoby Ford is healthy again, but I can’t imagine using him this week. Denarius Moore is our highest ranked Raiders wideout. … Nate Burleson is a better option than usual, especially if Charles Woodson is out early for the Packers. … DeSean Jackson has earned enough trust back to safely play him. The Redskins have quietly become an easy matchup.
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Week 17 Tight Ends


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Antonio Gates</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Jared Cook</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jermichael Finley</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>Questionable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Jacob Tamme</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>Probable(back)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Todd Heap</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Kyle Rudolph</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Ed Dickson</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Joel Dreessen</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Evan Moore</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


TE Notes: Jared Cook nearly won my office league final for me on his own. It almost made me happy Fred Davis got caught smoking weed 37 times in the offseason. Cook is being featured in a Titans offense desperate for playmakers. He’s a solid start again, even in a tough matchup. … I would like to apologize again to Tony Gonzalez for doubting him at the beginning of the season. I’ll never doubt you again. At least until next year. … Vernon Davis will wrap up one of the more quietly disappointing fantasy seasons of the year in St. Louis. It’s not exactly Davis’ fault, but that doesn’t put any points on the board for his teams most weeks. … Jermichael Finley’s problems with drops have become epic. Look for Aaron Rodgers to get something positive going early for Finley before the playoffs. It’s all in Finley’s head.


Week 17 Team Defense


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Titans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Broncos Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Chargers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Week 17 Kickers


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>at STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Dan Bailey</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>vs. TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>vs. SD</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Alex Henery</TD><TD>vs. WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Jason Hanson</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Nick Novak</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Mike Nugent</TD><TD>vs. BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Matt Prater</TD><TD>vs. KC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Ryan Succop</TD><TD>at DEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Rob Bironas</TD><TD>at HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>at MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>Sidelined(calf)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>at PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>at CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Steven Hauschka</TD><TD>at ARZ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>at MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>vs. CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>vs. TEN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>Questionable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>at JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Dave Rayner</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>I.L.(-)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>vs. NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Jay Feely</TD><TD>vs. SEA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>at NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>vs. PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HacheMan]

One More For The Road

What we said Thursday still goes. Week 17 is a harsh and mysterious place ill-suited for fantasy football. Playoff-bound superstars who have carried your team all season are benched in the interest of good health, while a number of other stalwarts simply aren’t used the same way in games that are devoid of meaning.

But if you've reached Week 17 with something still on the line, you are not alone. Yesterday we took a look at who you can trust in such a tricky landscape (while Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling provided an even more in depth look), but were stuck with incomplete information on a number of critical players. With another day of practice in the books, the status of most has clarified.

In: Ryan Mathews (calf). At least as far as we can tell. The San Diego media seems to believe Mathews’ Wednesday absence was purely precautionary, and there would have been little reason for Mathews to return yesterday were he not planning to suit up against the Raiders. Rotoworld is confident enough Mathews will play that we’ve ranked him third amongst running backs for Week 17. Going up against a Raiders’ run defense allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry, San Diego’s breakout second-year back has a dream matchup. .

Out: Mike Tolbert (hamstring). Again, this is as far as we can tell. The Chargers would love to play spoiler Sunday, but there’s no reason to push their battering ram change-of-pace back if he’s not 100 percent. Tolbert could return to practice this afternoon and be listed as questionable on the injury report, but even if he’s active, he’s is going to be a dicey flex play in all formats.

In/out: Vincent Jackson (groin). We called this one “out” on Thursday, but apparently Jackson and the Chargers have other ideas. Coach Norv Turner has said he’s "as hopeful (this week) as he was last week" that his No. 1 receiver will take the field, and believes Jackson himself wants to suit up. That’s surprising since San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention and V-Jax is gearing up for what figures to be another nasty contract negotiation, but he should now be considered (slightly) better than 50-50 to play. Turner has maintained the fact that the Bolts have nothing to play for will not factor into whether or not Jackson gives it a go.

Out: Mark Ingram (toe). Ingram insisted his case of turf toe was a minor one upon coming down with it in Week 14, but it seemed like wishful thinking. Despite its nonthreatening name, even minor cases of turf toe can linger for weeks, if not months. Ingram found this out the hard way Thursday, where he was unable to practice after his toe responded poorly to the limited session he turned in on Wednesday. Certain to be out for Week 17, Ingram is now in danger of missing the entire postseason. Chris Ivory will continue to take Ingram’s snaps in the Saints’ backfield.

In: Mike Wallace (ankle). Wallace got in a full practice Thursday, confirming that his limited Wednesday session was only precautionary. Even with Ben Roethlisberger unlikely to play more than 25-30 snaps, Wallace is Rotoworld’s 11th ranked receiver for Week 17.

In/Out: Reggie Bush (knee). The local media is split on whether or not Bush will play Sunday after he missed his second straight practice Thursday. Unless he returns today and personally assures that his Wednesday/Thursday no-shows were no big deal, Bush will be too risky to rely on for Week 17.

In: Jacoby Ford (foot). Ford practiced for the second straight day Thursday, and is finally over the hump with the mid-foot sprain that’s sidelined him since Week 10. He’s unlikely to be ready to make much of an impact in Oakland’s must-win game against the Chargers, however.

Out: Kevin Kolb (concussion). Kolb actually practiced Thursday after sitting out on Wednesday, but NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora reports he’s already been ruled out for Week 17. If true, it would mean Kolb ended up attempting only 26 passes in Arizona’s final nine games. Quite a disappointment for someone who fetched an enormous haul for the Eagles and is making approximately $10 million. Although Kolb is due an unseemly $7 million option bonus this offseason, he’s expected back in the desert in 2012.

BIZARRE/ULTIMATELY MEANINGLESS STATS OF THE WEEK
Now 26, Reggie Bush entered 2011 averaging 34.8 rushing yards per game and four yards per carry for his career. Also 26, Chris Johnson — “CJ2K” if you will — entered 2011 averaging 97.8 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry for his career. With one week left to go, Bush is averaging 72.4 yards per game and five yards per carry, while CJwhateverK is averaging 65.7/4.0.

Victor Cruz’s 1,358 receiving yards are a Giants’ franchise record, and just 957 fewer than Mario Manningham has posted in his entire four-year career.

59/1,101/12 and 58/1,077/8. The second line belongs to Vincent Jackson. The first? Jordy Nelson.

Dez Bryant is averaging 61.3 receiving yards per game, tying him with teammate Laurent Robinson and Jabar Gaffney for 31st in the NFL. Bryant’s 858 receiving yards give him a 13-yard edge over Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Mike Williams has eight fewer receiving yards than Doug Baldwin on 16 more catches.

Although he’s often de-emphasized after his lost cause of a team gets down big early, LeGarrette Blount has actually rushed for 71 more yards in the second half this season than in the first.

In three December games, John Skelton has passed for more yards than Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger. Romo has made four appearances, while Vick and Roethlisberger have each made three.

FOUR PICKS FOR WEEK 17
Big game: Giants 27, Cowboys 24
In an all-or-nothing battle between two gaffe-prone teams, the Giants make fewer mistakes as they narrowly edge their hated rival for the second time in four weeks.

Big game II: Bengals 21, Ravens 14
In a “win and in” scenario, the Bengals flat out want it more than the Ravens, who turn in one more road dud heading into the postseason.

Luck Bowl: Jaguars 17, Colts 6
The Colts stay winless on the road, ensuring the right to select whiz kid Stanford QB Andrew Luck No. 1 overall in next spring’s draft.

The I really don’t have a clue but will pretend I do game: Eagles 34, Redskins 7
The Eagles complete their strong finish while the Redskins go out in typically bitter fashion.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2012: Bowl Stock Watch

The 2012 NFL draft is 118 days away.

Focused on their own teams throughout the regular season, NFL decision makers' first opportunity to zero in on draft prospects often occurs during college bowls. GMs and personnel directors will eventually fall back on NCAA regular season tape, but this is a time for first impressions. And those can go a long way.

This year, we've enlisted NFL Draft Scout's Josh Norris to cover the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowl all-star practices and games. Norris spent the past two seasons working in the St. Louis Rams' scouting department and will attend both events in person. You can follow Norris on Twitter here: @JoshNorris. I’m also planning a pre-Senior Bowl interview, possibly of the podcast variety, with ESPN College Gameday’s David Pollack. Stay with us from January through April for comprehensive NFL draft coverage.

As of Friday morning, here is a look at bowl performances from ten prospects for the 2012 NFL draft. I'll do another bowl roundup after the January 9 BCS Championship Game. At that point, we'll have a better idea as to which underclassmen will turn pro. The deadline for juniors and redshirt sophomores to declare is January 15.

1. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III
Bowl Game: Alamo Bowl
Result: Bears 67, Washington 56
Griffin's Stats: 24-33-295-1-0, 18-55-1

The 2011 Heisman winner opened the Alamo Bowl on fire, in the first quarter going 12-of-14 for 118 yards and a touchdown with 36 more yards and another score on the ground. The Huskies' pass rush gave RG3 fits the rest of the way. He took three second-quarter sacks, losing a fumble on one of them, and seemed unwilling to throw the ball away in pressure situations. Too often, Griffin played panicked and small in the pocket in the face of an oncoming rush. He did rebound to connect with sophomore wideout Levi Norwood and senior Kendall Wright for second-half deep shots, but Baylor's Terrance Ganaway-led backfield was the difference in this game. Asked afterwards when he'll announce his NFL plans, Griffin replied "Pretty soon here, probably." Griffin is going to possess the most dynamic quarterback skill set in the 2012 draft, and at least a handful of GMs are expected to grade him higher than Andrew Luck on their draft boards. I think if there is one big concern about Griffin's ability to translate his college success into the pros, it is his pocket presence.

2. Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd
Bowl Game: Champs Sports Bowl
Result: Florida State 18, Irish 14
Floyd's Stats: 5-41-1

The top-rated senior receiver in the country this year, Floyd appeared headed for a monster finish to a decorated career when he returned the game's opening punt 41 yards. Ultimately, Floyd was held in check offensively by Seminoles sophomore CB Xavier Rhodes' physical press coverage, often with safety help over the top. Floyd showed impressive concentration to secure his five-yard touchdown catch after several bobbles, but disappointingly missed most of the second half with an abdominal injury. Floyd measured 6-foot-3, 229 in the spring of 2011 and shed 5-10 pounds for his senior season. He recorded a career-high 100 catches for 1,147 yards and nine touchdowns. With a skill set similar to Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall's, Floyd projects as a first-round and possible top-15 pick. NFL evaluators will investigate his medical (eight games missed in four years due to various injuries) and off-field backgrounds (three alcohol-related incidents in college).

3. Washington running back Chris Polk
Bowl Game: Alamo Bowl
Result: Baylor 67, Huskies 56
Polk's Stats: 30-147-1, 2-8

At halftime of the Alamo Bowl, SI's Tony Pauline reported that word amongst scouts and program insiders is Polk will go pro. A fourth-year junior, Polk turned 22 earlier this month and has an NFL body (5'11/222, listed) with pro-ready tackle-breaking ability and leg drive. In this game, Baylor sold out to stop Polk early by stacking the box with eight defenders until promising sophomore QB Keith Price began lighting up the Bears' secondary. Polk capitalized to break off big plays of 14, 15, and 56 yards, the latter for a score. Polk's long speed has been questioned, but no Baylor defender got within striking distance on the breakout run. Keep in mind Polk plays behind one of the nation's poorest offensive lines, but he was thrown for three negative runs and held to two yards or fewer on 17 of his 32 touches. He also lost a third-quarter fumble. Polk has carried the football 799 times in college, so it would undoubtedly be in his personal best interest to take his game to the next level. While Polk's down-to-down consistency wasn't great against Baylor, he maintains an overall talent base to be a year-one NFL feature back. Polk has top-40 pick potential.

4. Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright
Bowl Game: Alamo Bowl
Result: Bears 67, Washington 56
Wright's Stats: 7-91-1, 4-28

There is some feeling in the draftnik community that Wright -- not RG3 -- is Baylor's top prospect for the 2012 draft, and the fourth-year senior did little do damage that notion in Thursday night's victory. Wright showed his toughness and RAC ability on a short first-quarter red-zone reception, breaking two tackles to battle his way in for an 11-yard touchdown. In the fourth quarter, Wright blew by man coverage to collect an underthrown pass from Griffin for a 48-yard bomb. Though he goes just 5-foot-10, 194, Wright is playmaking downfield threat with a game that has generated comparisons to Panthers All-Pro wideout Steve Smith. A second-team All-American as a senior, Wright will likely run a forty time in the low-4.4s and projects as a possible late first-round pick.

5. Boise State running back Doug Martin
Bowl Game: Maaco Bowl
Result: Broncos 56, Arizona State 24
Martin's Stats: 31-151-1, 3-26

Martin opened the Maaco Bowl with a 102-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, eluding four Sun Devils in the open field and confirming his lethal long speed. Boise scored the game's first 21 points, never looking back as Martin took home game MVP honors. Gaining five yards or more on 16 of his touches, Martin kept the chains moving and made big plays throughout the contest. He had seven double-digit gains. Martin measured 5-foot-9, 213 last spring and ran a 4.48 forty time adjusted for surface. Russ Lande pegged Martin as a late first-round pick in his most recent mock draft for Sporting News. While it ultimately seems unlikely that Martin would be a top-32 selection, he certainly helped his stock on December 22 and projects as a potential every-down back in the pros. In terms of running style, Martin has drawn comparisons to Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw.

6. Temple running back Bernard Pierce
Bowl Game: New Mexico Bowl
Result: Owls 37, Wyoming 15
Pierce's Stats: 25-100-2

Wyoming entered bowl season ranked 115th of 120 nationally in run defense, so a better yards-per-carry average from Temple's first-team all-conference tailback probably should have been expected. In fairness to Pierce, Temple ran one of college football's most predictable offenses this season, amassing 636 rushing attempts compared to 198 passes. In more of a workmanlike effort, Pierce executed back-to-back goal-line carries to kick off the scoring and give the Owls a 14-0 lead from which they wouldn't relent. Against Wyoming, Pierce was held to two yards or fewer on 11 carries. Still a quality early- to mid-round prospect, Pierce goes 6-foot, 218 (listed) and has scored 54 all-purpose touchdowns in his three-year career. He is expected to strongly consider entering the 2012 draft ahead of the January 15 deadline.

7. Utah State running back Robert Turbin
Bowl Game: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Result: Ohio 24, Aggies 23
Turbin's Stats: 20-101, 1-7

Turbin was one of the first "underclassmen" to declare for the 2012 draft, although he's not a true underclassman. A fifth-year junior, Turbin missed the 2007 and 2010 seasons with foot and ACL injuries, respectively. He turned 22 earlier this month. Earning WAC Offensive Player of the Year honors in his bounce-back season, Turbin was a load against the Ohio Bobcats on December 17. Rebounding from an early goal-line stuff and getting stronger as the game went on, Turbin racked up 68 yards on his final ten carries. Though he caught only one pass in the bowl loss, Turbin's 67 career receptions and 12.6 yards-per-catch average are impressive for a big power back who's generated Shonn Greene comparisons. Turbin projects as a middle-round pick in April's draft.

8. San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley
Bowl Game: New Orleans Bowl
Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 32, Aztecs 30
Lindley's Stats: 28-49-413-3-0, 2-6

San Diego State had no running game on December 17, so the Aztecs were forced to lean heavily on their senior quarterback's right arm to stay competitive. Against Louisiana-Lafayette, Lindley stepped up for one of the best games of his career. The 6-foot-4, 232-pound pocket passer threw for gains of double-digit yardage on 21-of-28 completions and positioned SDSU for the win with a 12-yard touchdown strike to sophomore wideout Colin Lockett, only to watch as the Ragin Cajuns nailed a game-winning 50-yard field goal with time expiring. Lindley played in a pro-style offense at San Diego State and has NFL-caliber arm strength. Accuracy and interceptions have been an issue, however. The fifth-year senior completed just 55.5 percent of his career passes with a 90:47 TD-to-INT ratio. Lindley is expected to be a middle- to late-round pick in April's draft.

9. North Carolina wide receiver Dwight Jones
Bowl Game: Independence Bowl
Result: Missouri 41, Tar Heels 24
Jones' Stats: 6-77-1

Jones has physical tools to be a serious threat in the vertical passing game, and in the Heels' bowl loss to Missouri it showed up on his 22-yard first-quarter touchdown catch. The 6-foot-4, 207-pound wideout sprinted downfield and outmuscled his man for the score to put North Carolina up 7-0. Jones ultimately had an up-and-down bowl game performance, however, consistently failing to secure quarterback Bryn Renner's throws with his hands and allowing them to reach his body. Due to this tendency, drops have been an issue for Jones throughout the last two seasons. Still the next excellent prospect from a school fast becoming an NFL factory for wide receivers, Jones finished his senior season with 85 receptions for 1,196 yards and a dozen touchdowns, earning second-team All-ACC accolades. He's been getting second-day grades from NFL scouts.

10. Western Michigan wide receiver Jordan White
Bowl Game: Little Ceasars Bowl
Result: Purdue 37, Broncos 32
White's Stats: 13-265-1

A prolific small-school wideout, White broke several of Greg Jennings' records at Western Michigan and was kind enough to save his best for last. White recorded a career-high 265 yards, opening the scoring with a 49-yard touchdown catch over his shoulder. Early in the fourth quarter, White got wide open on a slot route for a 45-yard gain, picking up 10 additional yards after the catch with a stiff arm. A third-team All-American, White measured 6-foot, 214 last spring and will probably run his forty in the 4.55-4.60 range. He'll be an intriguing late-round flier on draft day.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 17 Injury Questions

It’s never easy for those owners still on the grind in Week 17. Minor injuries can cause players to sit out, the best teams often rest their players and the bad teams can use their finale as a chance to get a look at younger players.

As we get set for Week 17, we’ll have our eye out for 2012 prospects.

Of course, the Rotoworld News Page will be humming all Sunday morning to bring you official word on all your injured players ahead of kickoff. And to make sure you’re prepared, read every word of these rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Wesseling.

If you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft here. And if you don’t have the Rotoworld News App, you are missing an edge.

OK, let’s get to the hurt/resting folks:

1PM GAMES
JETS at DOLPHINS
* Reggie Bush (knee) is out. Daniel Thomas (knee) is a go and suddenly a candidate for 20 touches.
* Anthony Fasano (concussion) has been cleared and will play.

BILLS at PATRIOTS
* Tom Brady’s left (non-throwing) shoulder issue is not a real concern. He’ll be fine in a game the Patriots need to win to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
* Wes Welker (knee) expects to play all four quarters.
* Deion Branch (groin) appears to be in the same shape he was last week.
* Dave Rayner (groin) is out. Brandon Coutu will kick for the Bills.

TITANS at TEXANS
* Chris Johnson (ankle) is ready to go and says he’s feeling much better this week.
* Andre Johnson (hamstring) will return, but is only expected to play a half at most.

COLTS at JAGUARS
* Dallas Clark (neck) is expected to play in what could be his last game as a Colt.
* Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) is fine. He’ll be motivated to protect his status as the league’s leading rusher.

REDSKINS at EAGLES
* Roy Helu (toe) is expected to play, but may rotate with Evan Royster.
* LeSean McCoy’s ankle is not a major concern. He’s going after the rushing crown.

LIONS at PACKERS
* Calvin Johnson (Achilles) is fine. The Lions need to win in order to avoid a potential matchup with the Saints next week.
* Kevin Smith (ankle) practiced in full this week.
* Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers’ starters are not going to play very much, if at all. The Pack has clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
* James Starks (ankle, knee) is out. Brandon Saine is likely in line for a big workload.
* Randall Cobb (groin) is out.

BEARS at VIKINGS
* Marion Barber (calf) isn’t going to play. It’s the Kahlil Bell show again.
* Christian Ponder (concussion) will start.

PANTHERS at SAINTS
* Legedu Naanee (foot) is out. Brandon LaFell is a sneaky play again.
* Mark Ingram (toe) remains out. Chris Ivory is the power back again.
* Lance Moore (hamstring) is out.

49ERS at RAMS
* Kyle Williams (concussion) didn’t practice all week. Look for Brett Swain to start opposite Michael Crabtree.
* Ted Ginn (ankle) may be active, but won’t see many reps at wideout.
* Sam Bradford (ankle) will sit again, giving Kellen Clemens another chance.

4PM GAMES
BUCS at FALCONS
* Arrelious Benn (neck) is very questionable. Look elsewhere.
* Julio Jones (ankle) is going to play. However, the Falcons will be locked into the No. 6 seed if the Lions win their game.

RAVENS at BENGALS
* Anquan Boldin (knee) isn‘t going to play through a doubtful tag. Lee Evans and Torrey Smith will start again.
* Billy Cundiff (calf) remains a question mark.

STEELERS at BROWNS
* Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) is going to start, but may only play a half.
* Colt McCoy (concussion) still hasn’t been cleared. Seneca Wallace gets the nod again.
* Emmanuel Sanders (foot) is ready to return as the No. 3 receiver.

CHIEFS at BRONCOS
* Jackie Battle (foot) is out. Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster and LeRon McClain will share the carries.
* Willis McGahee (hamstring) isn’t even listed on the injury report.

CHARGERS at RAIDERS
* Ryan Mathews (calf) is headed for another game-time call. With the Chargers eliminated from the playoffs, Mathews is unlikely to see a full workload even if active.
* Vincent Jackson (groin) will play at less than 100 percent again.
* Darren McFadden (foot) remains out, but Taiwan Jones (hamstring) may return in support of Michael Bush.

SEAHAWKS at CARDINALS
* Kevin Kolb (concussion) is out. Skeltonmania takes the stage again.
* Beanie Wells (knee) will play through another questionable tag.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
COWBOYS at GIANTS
* Tony Romo (hand) is a full go.
* Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is going to play at less than 100 percent.
* Mario Manningham (knee) is a good bet to play a full game as the No. 3 receiver.
* Felix Jones (hamstring) is expected to handle a full workload despite a questionable tag.
* Jake Ballard (knee) is out.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
Anyone left in Survivor should obviously look toward highly-motivated teams. It’s hard to see the Rams scoring against the Niners’ defense. The Patriots are going all-out to beat the Bills. The Broncos are in a must-win spot at home against the Chiefs.

Some spots I’d avoid include the Eagles, who often seem to struggle against the Redskins. The Saints are also a risky play as they might not have much to play for if the Niners jump out to a big lead.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
None. While the active and energetic owner is certainly rewarded in Week 17, it’s really not an even playing field.

For example, the Vikings plan on giving Jim Kleinsasser goal-line work because he’s retiring after the season. Aaron Rodgers may not even start. Players like Ben Roethlisberger and Andre Johnson may only play a half.

Therefore, none of my leagues play into Week 17.

 

[Michelangelo]

Hache,

I go into the last week of my FF season (no playoff format) in a three way dogfight for 2nd place. I've read this thread top to bottom all season. It has been very helpful (with ATS handicapping as well).

Can't thank you enough for posting this stuff all year.

 

[HacheMan]

Hache,

I go into the last week of my FF season (no playoff format) in a three way dogfight for 2nd place. I've read this thread top to bottom all season. It has been very helpful (with ATS handicapping as well).

Can't thank you enough for posting this stuff all year.

You're very welcome Michel.

And I agree Fantasy News is great handicapping info.

Hope you finish well in your league and see you here next season.

Maybe we can form a league among 10-12 of us here.

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy Playoff Rankings

Below are Rotoworld’s initial playoff ranks for owners participating in early-week drafts. Check back Monday night for full analysis.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
5. Matt Ryan, Falcons
6. Eli Manning, Giants
7. Joe Flacco, Ravens
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions
9. Alex Smith, 49ers
10. Andy Dalton, Bengals
11. Tim Tebow, Broncos
12. T.J. Yates, Texans
13. Jake Delhomme, Texans

Running Backs

1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Darren Sproles, Saints
3. Arian Foster, Texans
4. Pierre Thomas, Saints
5. Isaac Redman, Steelers
6. Frank Gore, 49ers
7. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
9. James Starks, Packers
10. Ryan Grant, Packers
11. Michael Turner, Falcons
12. Chris Ivory, Saints
13. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
14. Cedric Benson, Bengals
15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
16. Kevin Smith, Lions
17. Willis McGahee, Broncos
18. Ben Tate, Texans
19. Ricky Williams, Ravens
20. Kendall Hunter, 49ers
21. Bernard Scott, Bengals
22. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
23. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
24. John Kuhn, Packers
25. John Clay, Steelers
26. Shane Vereen, Patriots
27. Lance Ball, Broncos
28. D.J. Ware, Giants
29. Brian Leonard, Bengals
30. Kevin Faulk, Patriots
31. Derrick Ward, Texans

Wide Receivers

1. Greg Jennings, Packers
2. Jordy Nelson, Packers
3. Marques Colston, Saints
4. Wes Welker, Patriots
5. Mike Wallace, Steelers
6. Calvin Johnson, Lions
7. Roddy White, Falcons
8. Julio Jones, Falcons
9. Victor Cruz, Giants
10. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
11. Antonio Brown, Steelers
12. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
13. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
14. Andre Johnson, Texans
15. A.J. Green, Bengals
16. Lance Moore, Saints
17. Torrey Smith, Ravens
18. Robert Meachem, Saints
19. Deion Branch, Patriots
20. Nate Burleson, Lions
21. James Jones, Packers
22. Donald Driver, Packers
23. Mario Manningham, Giants
24. Titus Young, Lions
25. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
26. Eric Decker, Broncos
27. Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers
28. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
29. Hines Ward, Steelers
30. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
31. Devery Henderson, Saints
32. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
33. Randall Cobb, Packers
34. Ted Ginn, 49ers
35. Kyle Williams, 49ers
36. Harry Douglas, Falcons
37. Kevin Walter, Texans
38. Jacoby Jones, Texans
39. Lee Evans, Ravens
40. Eddie Royal, Broncos

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham, Saints
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers
4. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
5. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
6. Vernon Davis, 49ers
7. Heath Miller, Steelers
8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
10. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
11. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
12. Ed Dickson, Ravens
13. Jake Ballard, Giants
14. Joel Dreessen, Texans
15. Tony Scheffler, Lions
16. Daniel Fells, Broncos
17. Bear Pascoe, Giants

Kickers

1. Mason Crosby, Packers
2. John Kasay, Saints
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Shaun Suisham, Steelers
5. Billy Cundiff, Ravens
6. David Akers, 49ers
7. Matt Bryant, Falcons
8. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
9. Jason Hanson, Lions
10. Neil Rackers, Texans
11. Mike Nugent, Bengals
12. Matt Prater, Broncos

Defense/Special Teams

1. Packers
2. Saints
3. Patriots
4. Ravens
5. Steelers
6. 49ers
7. Falcons
8. Texans
9. Giants
10. Lions
11. Bengals
12. Broncos

 

[HacheMan]

Talent Quest

It’s far too early to project the situations and opportunities that will shape the 2012 fantasy season. Free agency and the draft will have a major say in that. However, it’s not too early to evaluate talent.

Really, talent should be the driving force behind any fantasy draft. We want guys that will absolutely explode when given the opportunity and will force their coach to get them the rock consistently. So before we turn the page on the 2011 season, we need to file away these players.

Here are 10 guys that jumped off the screen as difference-making, elite talents in 2011:

1. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: A midseason hamstring injury was the only thing that could slow down Jones as a rookie. The 4.39 40-yard dash he ran at the NFL Combine was jaw-dropping, but he appeared to be even faster on the Georgia Dome turf. Perhaps more impressive was Jones’ ability to shrug off tacklers near the goal-line, showing a nose for the end zone. In his final four games of the regular season, he scored six touchdowns. Jones’ raw talent makes teammate Roddy White appear ordinary.

2. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins: We knew that Helu would immediately step into the league as one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the league. He backed that up by catching 37 passes in his final eight games. What we didn’t know was that Helu had the ability to bust through NFL arm tackles at will and burst through the hole like a Mike Shanahan one-cut runner should. As seen in this Week 12 highlight, Helu’s agility and power is something that doesn’t come around that often.

3. Jared Cook, TE, Titans: It’s impossible to explain why the Titans didn’t use Cook over the first 13 weeks of their season. He’s 6’5/248, possessing the same massive frame as Antonio Gates. But as seen in this Week 16 play, Cook can line up in the slot and run past a linebacker for a touchdown like Jermichael Finley. It’s a unique skill set that led to 21 catches for 335 yards and a score over the final three weeks of the year.

4. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: Don’t give Calvin Johnson all the credit for Stafford’s obscene 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. Stafford throws the tightest spiral and has the strongest arm in the NFL. Period. In this league, that’s going to take you a long way. Stafford, who played without any semblance of a running game for the majority of the year, was able to fit the ball in tiny windows thanks to his natural ability.

5. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: Being able to track a deep pass, adjust to it and make a play on the ball at the NFL level is a rare skill. Moore has it. He averaged 18.7 yards per catch this season and five of his 33 receptions went for touchdowns. Twelve of his catches went for 20-plus yards and five went for 40-plus yards. Carson Palmer’s strategy of chuck it up and pray works when he’s throwing to Moore.

6. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: When the Bills were ravaged by injury at the wideout spot, they officially moved Spiller to the wide receiver position. And after Fred Jackson went down, they moved Spiller into the feature back role. There’s not many players in the league that can do both jobs effectively. While Spiller doesn’t move the pile and his tackle-breaking in the hole leave something to be desired, it’s his ability to make people miss in the open field and outrun them to the edge that makes him special. Among backs with at least 100 carries this season, only six had a better yards-per-carry average than Spiller.

7. Jake Locker, QB, Titans: When a quarterback is able to combine a really powerful arm with elite running ability, we need to take notice. It’s what has made Michael Vick, Cam Newton and even Aaron Rodgers to a certain degree so special. Although Locker saw significant action in just three games this year, we saw plenty. Check out this touchdown run against the Saints in Week 14.

8. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Bowe isn’t a newcomer to the party like a lot of guys on this list, but it’s impossible not to notice him on the film. Consistently jumping out as the best player on the field, Bowe muscled his way to 81 catches this season despite playing with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. He’s finally gotten “it” over the last two seasons, showing meticulous route-running and consistency.

9. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: It’s impossible to watch a Panthers game and not call them crazy for dropping the Brinks truck off at DeAngelo Williams’ house. Stewart’s 5.35 yards-per-carry average this season could be considered a fluke if he didn’t come into the year sporting a 4.69 mark. More importantly, Stewart made major strides in the passing game this year as the Panthers recognized the need to get the ball in his hands as often as possible. Stewart racked up 47 catches compared to 16 for Williams.

10. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: Even Bill Belichick knows that Hernandez is a rare breed. At various points this season, they handed the ball off to him as a true running back, ran reverses for him and got him the ball on bubble screens. There aren’t many tight ends getting that kind of usage. And when in the open field, Hernandez makes sharp cuts like an elite wideout.

 

[HacheMan]

Matchups: Wild Card Round

Cincinnati @ Houston
Saturday 4:30ET

Cincinnati Must: Limit Houston's run game. This, obviously, is more easily said than done. The Texans finished second in the league in regular-season rushing offense as one of just two teams to produce two 900-plus yard backs. Change-of-pace runner Ben Tate is the thunder to feature back Arian Foster's lightning, displaying aggressive, punishing power and surprising speed en route to a 5.4 yards-per-carry average. Foster is the home-run hitter, ranking fifth in the NFL in rushing despite missing three games. Exceptionally versatile, Foster also ranked third among running backs in receiving yards. With rookie T.J. Yates at quarterback, Tate and Foster are the Texans' offensive foundation. If the Bengals take that away, they'll stay competitive throughout.

Houston Must: Make Andy Dalton beat them -- without A.J. Green. After an impressive start to the year, Dalton faded as defenses figured him out down the stretch. Whereas the rookie completed 61.5% of his passes with a 12:7 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in Cincinnati's first nine games, Dalton's completion rate fell to 54.8 with eight TDs and eight turnovers in the final seven. The Texans are equipped to check Green with top cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who routinely shadows opposing top receivers. When the Bengals and Texans met in Week 14, "J-Jo" held Green under 60 yards, and Green got most of his 59 on a 50-50 third-quarter jumpball for a gain of 36. Houston's defense ranks third against the pass, so will be a very tough matchup for Dalton.

X-Factor: Ben Tate. In these teams' aforementioned Week 14 meeting, the Bengals held Foster in check (41 yards, 15 carries) but were burned by his "backup" Tate for 97 total yards on 11 touches, including an explosive 44-yard first-quarter burst to set up an early field goal. Houston's game plan entering most weeks is typically to get Foster 20 carries and Tate 10, though the latter may pose more matchup problems for Cincinnati's quick but relatively smallish front seven. Yates separated his left shoulder in Week 17, so the Texans will likely make an effort to limit his number of pass drops. This could lead to more opportunities for Tate off the bench.

Why the Texans will win: Even with Yates struggling, Houston possesses more big-play ability on offense than Cincinnati and has a more well-rounded defense. Andre Johnson's return to a near full-time player gives the Texans a weapon the Bengals didn't have to sweat in Week 14. At home, I like Houston to hold Cincinnati to two TDs or fewer, and cover the three-point spread.

Prediction: Texans 23, Bengals 17

Detroit @ New Orleans
Saturday 8:00ET

Detroit Must: Establish their running game early, and stay with it. Coordinator Scott Linehan's Lions offense was the most lopsided in football this season, leading the league in pass attempts but ranking 31st in runs. Linehan needs to veer from his usual game plan in the Wild Card round. The Saints' primary weakness is run defense after opponents averaged nearly five yards per regular-season carry against Gregg Williams' unit. Williams blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the NFL, often resulting in over-pursuit by linebackers and safeties. As well as being a way to create ball movement, running the ball consistently and successfully would be an effective means to keep Drew Brees off the field. Brees usually wins pass-happy shootouts.

New Orleans Must: Keep Calvin Johnson in check. The Saints executed a take-away-Megatron defense in their Week 13 matchup with these same Lions, double and triple teaming Johnson and holding him under 70 yards. Williams used cornerbacks in press coverage with safeties over the top and linebackers in a "cut" technique, jumping in the way of Johnson's slant routes. Detroit's other pass catchers, such as Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson, are largely possession threats with limited playmaking skills. Johnson can single-handedly dominate a game.

X-Factor: Lions tailback Kevin Smith. In addition to Williams' constant blitzing, the Saints' run defense has suffered due to middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma's decline. Battling chronic knee problems in his eighth season, Vilma no longer possesses sideline-to-sideline range and was never an elite run stuffer. The Vilma liability is especially problematic because the Saints insist on using him as an every-down linebacker, playing on all base downs and in nickel and dime packages. In Vilma's 11 starts this season, New Orleans has allowed 1,170 yards and nine touchdowns on 228 carries (5.13 YPC). In backup Jo-Lonn Dunbar's five starts inside, the numbers allowed fall to a more passable 568 yards on 123 rushing attempts (4.62 YPC) and only two scores. The Lions can best attack this weakness by running Smith directly at Vilma.

Why the Lions will win: I'm aware the Saints are 10.5-point favorites and did not lose a home game all season. Playing to win, Detroit was lit up for six touchdown passes by Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn in Week 17. I think this game will be a 50-50 shootout, however, and the Lions' superior pass rush will be the difference. Detroit can pressure Drew Brees and make him one-dimensional in terms of vertical passes to a far greater extent than New Orleans' defense can do to Matthew Stafford. In what is almost certain to be a high-scoring affair (59-point over/under), I like the Lions to pull out the road upset and head to Lambeau Field for Week 19.

Prediction: Lions 37, Saints 34
<!--RW-->

Atlanta @ NY Giants
Sunday 1:00ET

Atlanta Must: Keep Matt Ryan upright. Atlanta's O-Line played better down the stretch, but part of that was due to weak opponents. In their final seven games, the Falcons faced one defense ranked higher than 19th in the league in sacks. Ryan took only eight sacks during that span after absorbing 18 in the first nine weeks. The Giants finished the regular season third in the statistic, despite 11 missed games from star ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Osi and Tuck are healthy now, while Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as the club's best pass rusher. In terms of run and pass yardage rankings, the Giants' defense may appear to be vulnerable on paper. But there isn't a more fearsome pass rush left in the playoffs.

New York Must: Get Ahmad Bradshaw going. The Falcons ranked sixth in regular-season run defense, but sprung leaks during the final month. In the last four games, Panthers, Jaguars, Saints, and Bucs backs combined to rush for 398 yards on 65 carries (6.12 YPC) against Atlanta, which also lost strong-side linebacker Stephen Nicholas to a lingering knee injury. Nicholas won't play against the G-Men. Bradshaw struggled to stay healthy for much of the season, but overtook Brandon Jacobs to be New York's lead back in the last three games and is integral to the Giants' chances on Sunday. Big-play receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham can be deadly off play-action fakes, but need opponents to fear New York's running game to execute.

X-Factor: Giants safety Kenny Phillips. Phillips hasn't been recognized with a Pro Bowl berth in his four-year career, but he's on his way after a breakout season. In addition to setting career highs in tackles (82), pass breakups (11), and picks (4), Phillips graded out as the NFL's sixth-best safety by Pro Football Focus. Phillips spends a lot of time "in the box" supporting the run, and will be key to New York's defense of Michael Turner. In coverage, Phillips' responsibilities will likely include guarding Tony Gonzalez and providing "help" against Roddy White. A terrifically versatile, well-rounded safety, expect Phillips' name to be called often by Sunday's broadcasters.

Whey the Giants will win: I think they will have more success running the ball, throwing it, and rushing the passer than Atlanta. Ryan's career home-away splits are also a bit startling when assessing the Falcons' chances. In 30 career home games, Ryan has a 26-4 record, 64.8 completion rate, 7.55 yards-per-attempt average, and 49:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 32 road affairs, Ryan is 17-15, completes 58.1% of his passes, averages 6.66 YPA, and has 46 TD passes compared to 29 picks. This will be Atlanta's second game played outdoors since Week 4.

Prediction: Giants 30, Falcons 21

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Sunday 4:30ET

Pittsburgh Must: Keep Tim Tebow confined to the pocket. Tebow has been at his most dangerous in shotgun-spread formations, from which he can break off large yardage chunks when opposing back sevens play deep to defend four receivers' "go" routes. In terms of classic rushing offense, Denver is likely to struggle. Over their final nine regular-season games, the Steelers permitted just 817 yards and two touchdowns on 232 rushing attempts (3.52 YPC). Particularly after losing Pro Bowl right guard Chris Kuper to a broken leg in Week 17, the Broncos probably won't even stay competitive Sunday without dramatically altering their ultra-conservative offensive mentality, an approach that has emphasized ball control over putting points on the scoreboard.

Denver Must: Have its best game of the season in pass coverage. Aside from Champ Bailey, every member of Denver's back end has struggled this year. 33-year-old right cornerback Andre' Goodman has been consistently picked apart by opposing passing games, rookie strong safety Quinton Carter is clearly best suited to play in the box, and David Bruton would be a special teamer-only on a team with a good secondary. Brian Dawkins won't play due to a neck injury. The Steelers have been a throw-first team all year, racking up a franchise high for pass attempts since the 2002 season. If Denver can't put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and cover Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders, the Steelers are going to pour points on the Broncos.

X-Factor: Steelers tailback Isaac Redman. While much was made by the media this week of Rashard Mendenhall's torn ACL, it's conceivable that the Steelers will be better with Redman at feature back. Redman lacks home-run speed, but is a superior receiver and pass blocker than Mendenhall, better fitting Pittsburgh's new style of offense. Redman has also been an upgrade in terms of per-play production. Whereas Mendenhall averaged 4.07 yards per carry this season, Redman posted a 4.35 mark and is arguably a preferred option at the goal line with a more decisive, no-nonsense running style. Mendenhall too often danced around the line of scrimmage.

Why the Steelers will win: I don't trust Denver's offensive staff to formulate an attack for which the Steelers' defense isn't prepared. Pittsburgh also plays with more aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. Tebow's apparent loss of confidence isn't helping, either. He was tentative throwing downfield last Sunday following a four-turnover Week 16 game. This week, the Broncos' front office publicly criticized Tebow for refusing to take chances. In his previous ten starts, Denver coaches did as much as possible to minimize Tebow's impact and discourage him from "low-percentage" plays. From top to bottom, the Broncos are a divided team and organization.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Broncos 13

 

[HacheMan]

Overall impressions from 2011

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Here are some overall, seasonlong impressions as we close up shop on an exciting 2011 fantasy football season that, you might remember, was long-threatened by a labor action. Fortunately, we got in all 17 weeks and had some thrills, chills and spills. Here are a few things I learned:


• Good quarterbacks certainly make a difference, but the importance of grabbing an elite one will almost certainly be overstated in advance of next season's fantasy drafts. The top five scorers in fantasy this year were QBs. Eight of the top 10 were QBs, as were 13 of the top 20. The twosome of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees was excellent, and Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford weren't too shabby, either. Each of those five players scored more fantasy points than any single player did last season. But you know what? Despite scoring 385 fantasy points, Rodgers did not have the best relative season of 2011. Using the principles of Value-Based Drafting, we find that Ray Rice actually had a slightly more valuable season than Rodgers, and that LeSean McCoy barely outdid Brees. I'm not diminishing how awesome it was to own the best QBs, because it was awesome, except when Rodgers sat out Week 17 (the only game any of the top five signal-callers missed). As I've contended for a couple seasons now, Rodgers and Brees regularly deserve consideration as first-round picks. But are you positive Stafford can repeat his 41 TD passes next season? How about Newton? If they don't, they'll slink back down to the great QB morass: Valuable, but not worth reaching for. I'll have way more on VBD as the offseason progresses.

• But let's give a shout-out to Stafford, shall we? When I planted a flag on Stafford this summer, I wrote this: "I vividly recall our '09 rankings summit. I could get no traction for Matt Schaub. I pushed for him as our No. 6 fantasy quarterback because he looked awfully good when he was healthy, and while he missed big chunks of '07 and '08, I wasn't going to accuse the guy of lacking toughness. It wasn't a case of him being brittle; he took shots. Anyway, Schaub wound up outside our group top 10, but subsequently led the NFL in passing yards, completions and attempts in '09." My logic in endorsing Stafford was similar. He'd played in only 13 out of a possible 32 NFL games, but that didn't necessarily make him injury-prone. It just meant he was human. There's no way I would've said Stafford would wind up with more than 5,000 yards passing this season, so I'm not saying all this to pat myself on the back. Instead, there's a lesson to be learned here: All injured players shouldn't be regarded the same. If a guy missed time because he got thumped, don't overreact.


• A couple of guys sure did go wacky with touchdowns this year. I'm specifically thinking of Newton -- who rushed for a QB-record 14 in his rookie campaign -- and Rob Gronkowski, who scored 18 (17 receiving, one rushing, on what turned out to barely be a lateral), setting a record for tight ends and becoming the first man at the TE position ever to lead the NFL in receiving TDs outright. Listen, both Newton and Gronk were more valuable than expected even without their personal scoring chops; without a single rushing TD, Newton still would've finished seventh in fantasy points among all QBs (those 706 rushing yards sure did come in handy), and Gronkowski would've finished fourth among TEs even without a single trip to the end zone. But clearly, what made these guys elite was the unbelievable consistency with which they ran to paydirt. The repeatability of this phenomenon is going to be a leading topic this spring and summer. If you could guarantee each man would generate even three-quarters as many rushing/receiving TDs in '12 as they did in '11, you'd probably have to consider them first- or second-round picks.


• Speaking of repeatability, one Michael Vick proved why we shouldn't overreact to a single spectacular season of TD glory. Vick famously rushed for nine scores in '10 and wound up a first-rounder (if not first overall) on many draft lists. I'll admit, I also fell for Vick a little too hard, as I rated him sixth among QBs to begin the year. He finished 11th, thanks in part to his all-too-predictable midseason rib injury, but also because he rushed for a single TD. This is a stunning drop (give Vick eight more scores and suddenly he's seventh in fantasy points among QBs, and finishes with only 30 points fewer than his 2010 total), but also entirely predictable. Vick might actually wind up being a value play next year, one season after being a bloated selection. Whether or not Vick's Law (newly coined phrase) applies to Newton is a fascinating question.


• My top 10 RBs for this season were: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall and Darren McFadden. I nailed only 50 percent. Gulp. Rice, McCoy, MJD and Foster were the actual top-four finishers, and other than Foster's early hamstring problem and McCoy unexpectedly sitting out Week 17, they were the picture of consistency. Peterson was also terrific until he hurt an ankle in Week 11, whereupon he missed three killer games, and then of course suffered his catastrophic knee injury. The others? Charles tore an ACL, so we'll cut him some slack. Gore flat-out stopped catching the ball, Mendy got stuck in a pass-first offense that didn't need him on the goal line, and Run-DMC was electric until he suffered what turned out to be a teasing, mocking, season-ending foot injury in Week 7. (Unlike Stafford, it is eminently fair to fret that McFadden will always be injury-prone.) But of course, it was CJ1Kb (the "b" is for "barely") who makes headlines as the season's biggest fantasy bust. Johnson tied Matt Forte for 16th among fantasy RBs, despite the fact that Forte missed most of the season's final six games. Johnson failed to top 100 yards rushing in three-quarters of his games, and scored only four times. If we'd known that his contract holdout would be such a massive distraction, none of us would've drafted him. What a nightmare.


• Those top four RBs of '11 -- Rice, McCoy, MJD and Foster -- figure to be the highest-ranked RBs of '12, too, in some order. What about the unexpected (to me) top-10 interlopers? Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews and Steven Jackson were (again, to me) surprise top-10 finishers in fantasy points. I worried Turner and Jackson were due to fall apart, and I still have that worry for next season. Sproles is an utter enigma, perhaps unmatched in NFL history. Mathews stayed healthy, and followed through on his rookie promise. And Lynch? I have no explanation. In fact, I was the slowest adopter of Lynch you could imagine as the season, and his TD streak, wore on. How does a guy with a below-average QB, an injury-decimated offensive line and a recent history of mediocrity suddenly rush for a career-high 1,204 yards and 12 TDs? Um, Beast Mode? Lynch is a free agent in '12, and I don't know what to make of him. I find it hard to believe he'll be in my top 10 RBs next season, but we'll see. Mathews is the only one of these five interlopers who's a lock.


• Yes, what about that pesky Sproles, who as a Charger had never eclipsed 343 yards rushing or 520 yards receiving, but went on to total 1,313 yards from scrimmage and also set a record for the most total yards (including special teams) in NFL history? Back in October, I made kind of a production about what I deemed to be the unsustainability of Sproles' early-season magic. And indeed, after scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the Saints' first four games, Sproles posted single digits in six of his final 12 contests. But he still was awesome; in fact, he almost became the first back in more than a decade to catch more passes than he had carries and still score more than 100 fantasy points. (Sproles wound up with 87 carries and 86 catches.) Producing 1.01 fantasy points per touch is just incredible, and gave Sproles the third-most-efficient fantasy season of the past decade among players who touched it at least 150 times from scrimmage. Can he do it again? My instinct tells me no. Mark Ingram will be a larger factor, and defenses simply have to do a better job on the mighty-mite Sproles going forward (don't they?). But as I learned the hard way, you underestimate Sproles at your peril.

• Alas, fantasy football continues to be defined as much by its running back carnage as by anything else. In most leagues, you still need to select very good RBs to field a strong team, but doing that seems to be getting harder and harder. Charles, McFadden, Forte, Peterson, Fred Jackson, DeMarco Murray, Jahvid Best, Knowshon Moreno and Tim Hightower all suffered season-ending injuries after providing their fantasy squads with hope. And of course, NFL teams realize this more than ever and roll with platoons almost reflexively. Only two running backs, Jones-Drew and Turner, exceeded 300 carries this season. Seven RBs eclipsed that mark in '10; the league hadn't seen as few as two men with 300-plus carries since 1993. (And no RB hit 400 touches from scrimmage, which in the past I've posited as an alternative to the "Curse of 370.") Before you go off about how it's a pass-first league and teams don't run as much, realize that the average team had 27.3 rush attempts this year (compared to 34.0 pass attempts), and 27.2 rush attempts in '10 (compared to 33.7 pass attempts). No, this is platoon football, and it ain't going anywhere.


• Calvin Johnson is good. He's just really, really good. I owned him in several leagues, and except for a five-week blip from Week 10 to Week 14, Megatron was impossible to stop, both on the field and on fantasy teams. But give it up for Victor Cruz, too, my nominee for the Most Valuable Player of 2011, provided you accept the definition of "value" as "outperforming your draft slot." Cruz, of course, was drafted neither in standard 10-team fantasy leagues nor in the NFL draft back in '10, but he finished fourth in fantasy points among WRs and rendered Mario Manningham (a favored preseason sleeper of mine) valueless even before a knee injury ruined his season. And we should also nod in Laurent Robinson's direction, for he shrugged off getting cut by the Rams and Chargers to sign with the Cowboys and replace a hobbled Miles Austin, becoming a fantasy darling for half the season. Robinson was a favorite of mine ahead of the '10 season, which bit me in the butt. Better late than never, I suppose.


• Rookie WRs lived up to their hype this year, too. Standing around the ESPN newsroom back in August, I remember telling Herm Edwards I thought A.J. Green would be Rookie of the Year, and having Herm nearly bite my head off. "Rookie receiver! Rookie quarterback! Are you crazy?" Well, I was eternally down on Newton, so let's not pronounce my rookie radar flawless, but I was right on Green. What a stud. He wound up with 65 grabs for 1,057 yards and seven TDs, and on a per-game basis, Julio Jones was even better. Jones managed 959 yards on 54 catches with eight TDs, and missed four contests with hamstring injuries. The standard Mike Williams warning applies here; Williams finished the 2010 season as fantasy's No. 12 WR and suckered us all in, then faded to No. 51 in 2011. So you're allowed to proceed with a bit of caution next year.


• I'd say the biggest wideout bust of '11 was DeSean Jackson, and I'm not sure it's close. Sure, we had Andre Johnson rated No. 1 among WRs, and he finished the year tied for 69th (when you tie with Roy Williams and Devin Hester, you have problems), but injuries happen, and AJ appeared in only seven games. Otherwise, the best wideouts pretty much played like the best wideouts. My top 10 before the season began was: AJ, Megatron, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson and Dez Bryant. Except for AJ and DeSean, everyone else ended up 18th or higher in fantasy points. But oh, D-Jax. After two seasons of up-and-down fantasy glory, Jackson forgot the "up" part in '11. Gone were the deep strikes. (After averaging 14.7 yards at the catch in '10, Jackson averaged 12.2 in '11.) Gone were the TDs. (He's gone from nine to six to four the past three seasons.) And D-Jax himself might be gone, as he groused about his contract all year, becoming a poster child for the Eagles' failures. If Philly re-signs him, it's crazy. And depending on where Jackson lands, he might be a fantasy afterthought in '12.

• Philip Rivers finished the year ninth in fantasy points among QBs, but that doesn't come close to describing the dog-like nature of his season. From Weeks 7 through 12 (in other words: when you needed him most), Rivers produced exactly one above-average fantasy outing, and averaged 13.6 fantasy points in that six-week span. Mark Sanchez averaged 15.0. Considering Rivers was believed by some to be an MVP candidate this season, and was drafted as a surefire fantasy starter, that's not good enough. If there's a silver lining, it's that by coming on strong after his fantasy owners were dead, Rivers proved that he wasn't lying when he told folks he wasn't hurt. And the surprising news that pass-friendly Norv Turner will return for another season as Chargers head coach means Rivers is a bounce-back candidate.

Finally, here are some fun facts I'm guessing you wouldn't have believed when the season began. Thanks for a great year!


• After throwing for 25 TDs and 6 INTs in '10, Josh Freeman had 16 TDs and 22 INTs this season.


• Tim Tebow rushed for 71 yards more than Vick.


• Sam Bradford had more lost fumbles (7) than TD passes (6).


• Darren Sproles' 111 targets would've made him a top 25 WR in that category.


• Chris Johnson finished 40th in yards per carry among qualifying RBs, one spot behind Jackie Battle.


• Michael Turner finished third-worst among qualifying RBs in the percentage of his carries on which he was tackled behind the line of scrimmage. It happened on 15 percent of his totes.


• Cam Newton led every qualifying NFL player in percentage of runs that went for 10-plus yards (21.4 percent).


• Peyton Hillis was next-to-last (52nd) in that same category.


• Cruz tied Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald for the most receiving plays of 25 yards or more.


• Chad Ochocinco tied for 102nd among qualifying WRs in catches per game, with 1.0.


• Percy Harvin's 52 carries from scrimmage were second-most for a WR since '94 (and most for a fantasy-relevant player, since only Josh Cribbs from '09 was higher, with 55).


• Jimmy Graham finished fifth in targets among players at all positions, with 149.


• Brent Celek led every qualifying non-RB in yards after the catch per reception, with 8.1.


• David Akers' 166 scoreboard points were the most recorded by a kicker in NFL history, and the third-most recorded by any player at any position since the merger. Of course they were.

 

[HacheMan]

Playoff rankings: Wild card and beyond

Eric Karabell

The fantasy football season has ended, but if you're like me and are already a bit bored without lineups to set and injury reports to dissect, you'll compete in an NFL postseason pool. Why not try ESPN's Gridiron Playoff Challenge? Look, you're going to be watching the playoffs anyway, so why not have some fun on the side?


In Gridiron Playoff Challenge, entrants choose a pair of quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, plus a tight end, kicker and defense using mostly standard fantasy scoring in a salary cap-style format. The game is free, and you can change lineups after each of the first two playoff weekends. Or you might choose to compete in draft pools with pals, and what you draft is what you get; the statistics fall where they may. Either way is a blast, so below I have provided two sets of rankings, one for each format. Happy New Year, good luck to all and Go Eagles … um, well, enjoy the playoffs!

Quarterbacks: Entire playoffs



1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
4. Eli Manning, New York Giants
5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
8. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
9. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
10. Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos
11. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
12. T.J. Yates/Jake Delhomme, Houston Texans

Quarterbacks: Weekend of Jan. 7-8 only


1. Drew Brees, Saints
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions
3. Eli Manning, Giants
4. Matt Ryan, Falcons
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
6. Andy Dalton, Bengals
7. Tim Tebow, Broncos
8. T.J. Yates, Texans


Analysis: Remember, the goal here is to accumulate the most points for the entirety of the postseason, not merely win the first weekend. Even in Gridiron Playoff Challenge, where salaries play a role, one can lock in salaries before they rise. If Tebow throws for 320 yards and three scores in a win Sunday, his salary will go up. Of course, he probably will not do this. Regardless, in GPC make sure you initially choose players in action this weekend. You can always add Packers, 49ers, Patriots and Ravens next week.
When choosing players for this week and the entire playoffs, you'll find the quantity of games is not always more important than quality. For example, is one game from Stafford -- and it should be a good one! -- better than two for the Bengals-Texans winner? It could be. Also note that in GPC, the scoring does not penalize for interceptions or fumbles. That could make a difference in your decision-making.
The main reason I'd go with Brees over Rodgers is not a reflection of one's skill over the other. Simply put, Brees plays this Saturday; Rodgers does not. I think Brees will win this Saturday. Those 20-25 fantasy points make for a great start. Get your points where you can, because Rodgers is no lock to advance, either. I can't help but think every NFC team is so vulnerable in the first place. Are the Packers really that much better than the Saints, or the 49ers, Lions, Falcons and Giants for that matter? Three of the past four top NFC seeds haven't even won a single playoff game! Go all in on Packers and you could very easily get only one game. Of course, the same is true with the Saints.
Eric's Gridiron Challenge roster

Note: Eric Karabell's current roster in ESPN's Gridiron Playoff Challenge game. Create your own roster by clicking here. QB: Drew Brees, Saints (price: 6.9)
QB: Matthew Stafford, Lions (6.7)
RB: Darren Sproles, Saints (5.8)
RB: Isaac Redman, Steelers (4.8)
WR: Marques Colston, Saints (5.1)
WR: Victor Cruz, Giants (5.5)
TE: Jimmy Graham, Saints (5.3)
K: Shaun Suisham, Steelers (3.9)
DEF: Pittsburgh Steelers (5.1)


For this weekend, it's irrelevant. The Saints and Lions figure to score many points, with their NFC brethren in Northern New Jersey doing the same. I don't see many points being scored in the two AFC wild-card contests this weekend. I could have gone either way with Ryan versus Manning, but at some point you need to predict winners, too. If the Saints win, the Ryan/Manning winner could really give the Packers fits the following weekend. Points will be scored at Lambeau Field against that Packers defense. Then again, I'm not too concerned about Brees & Co. going to San Francisco, though the 49ers are the only NFC team still alive anywhere near the top 10 defensively. In the AFC, there are four teams that were top 10 in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks this season still playing. The Patriots, ahem, were not one of them. Go with NFC players over AFC options, in general.
Here are a few other thoughts: Spend early picks and/or salary cap money on quarterbacks. Running backs were far less reliable this season. … Don't dismiss Tebow. Yes, his minus-1 in Week 17 cost any owner relying on him, but he was a double-digit fantasy machine prior to that. I don't like his price in GPC, not in comparison to Dalton, who could win and get the Patriots. Lock in Dalton. He's a better value, though one must be a bit concerned about his rookie status and the Bengals being 0-7 this season against teams that made the playoffs. Then again, the Texans, this week's opponent, haven't been the same sans Matt Schaub. … I like San Francisco's Smith over Baltimore's Flacco. For one, Smith's games won't be against tough defenses, and his only road contest would be at the Packers. Flacco has tougher matchups defensively, and he can't meet the Patriots until the second game, if it happens at all. Also, Smith actually outscored Flacco this season. Flacco might have the better chance to play multiple games, but if he scores eight points in each, so what? … If Roethlisberger wins, he will get the Patriots only if the Texans win. Then again, I ranked him as the AFC's No. 2 quarterback because he's a playoff-tested option with prior success, and after Brady the next three AFC quarterbacks for standard season scoring are all playing golf (Philip Rivers, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick). After New England, the big points will be scored by NFC teams. … I'm not officially avoiding Brady in my picks, but the Patriots didn't beat a team that finished with a winning record all season, and the 2010 Patriots, top-seeded and 14-2, didn't win a playoff game. Watch out for the Steelers.
Running backs: Entire playoffs



1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Darren Sproles, Saints
3. Arian Foster, Texans
4. Isaac Redman, Steelers
5. Frank Gore, 49ers
6. Michael Turner, Falcons
7. Pierre Thomas, Saints
8. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
9. Chris Ivory, Saints
10. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
11. Cedric Benson, Bengals
12. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
13. Kevin Smith, Lions
14. James Starks, Packers
15. Willis McGahee, Broncos
16. Ryan Grant, Packers
17. Ben Tate, Texans
18. Ricky Williams, Ravens
19. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
20. Maurice Morris, Lions
21. John Kuhn, Packers
22. Kendall Hunter, 49ers
23. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
24. Bernard Scott, Bengals
25. John Clay, Steelers
26. D.J. Ware, Giants
27. Jason Snelling, Falcons
28. Keiland Williams, Lions
29. Lance Ball, Broncos
30. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
31. Shane Vereen, Patriots
32. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
33. Brandon Saine, Packers
34. Derrick Ward, Texans

Running backs: Weekend of Jan. 7-8 only


1. Arian Foster, Texans
2. Darren Sproles, Saints
3. Isaac Redman, Steelers
4. Michael Turner, Falcons
5. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
6. Pierre Thomas, Saints
7. Chris Ivory, Saints
8. Kevin Smith, Lions
9. Cedric Benson, Bengals
10. Willis McGahee, Broncos
11. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
12. Ben Tate, Texans
13. Maurice Morris, Lions
14. John Clay, Steelers
15. Bernard Scott, Bengals


Analysis: Not such an enticing group, is it? Hey, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch and most of the top 20 running backs didn't make it. Instead we get much uncertainty. Top seeds Green Bay and New England have timeshares and don't run the ball much. The Saints run enough to make three running backs (Mark Ingram is done for the season) relevant. But the No. 2 running back here received only 87 rushing attempts all season. The No. 4 running back averaged four fantasy points per game! Yep, make sure you spend on a quarterback!
I do like Redman of the Steelers quite a bit, as he replaces Rashard Mendenhall. The toughest AFC run defense he'd likely have to face would be the Ravens, though it could happen in Round 2. … McGahee has to run on the Steelers, which will be difficult. … Houston's Foster reminds me a bit of Detroit's Stafford; what if the Texans don't win a game? Then again, Rice and Sproles are a lot like Brees and Rodgers in that they appear to be head and shoulders above others at their position. … As for sleepers, I don't see many. There's risk surrounding Ridley, for example. What if Bill Belichick goes heavy on the Law Firm, recent struggles and all? … Who's the guy in Green Bay? I think it's Starks, as he should be rested by now. Ricky Williams feels like a sleeper to me.
Wide receivers: Entire playoffs



1. Marques Colston, Saints
2. Jordy Nelson, Packers
3. Mike Wallace, Steelers
4. Wes Welker, Patriots
5. Greg Jennings, Packers
6. Calvin Johnson, Lions
7. Victor Cruz, Giants
8. Roddy White, Falcons
9. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
10. Antonio Brown, Steelers
11. Julio Jones, Falcons
12. Robert Meachem, Saints
13. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
14. Andre Johnson, Texans
15. A.J. Green, Bengals
16. Deion Branch, Patriots
17. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
18. Lance Moore, Saints
19. Torrey Smith, Ravens
20. James Jones, Packers
21. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
22. Donald Driver, Packers
23. Mario Manningham, Giants
24. Nate Burleson, Lions
25. Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers
26. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
27. Devery Henderson, Saints
28. Titus Young, Lions
29. Eric Decker, Broncos
30. Kevin Walter, Texans
31. Hines Ward, Steelers
32. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
33. Kyle Williams, 49ers
34. Randall Cobb, Packers
35. Lee Evans, Ravens
36. Harry Douglas, Falcons
37. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
38. Jacoby Jones, Texans
39. Ted Ginn, 49ers
40. Brandon Tate, Bengals

Wide receivers: Weekend of Jan. 7-8 only



1. Marques Colston, Saints
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions
3. Victor Cruz, Giants
4. Roddy White, Falcons
5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
6. Mike Wallace, Steelers
7. Andre Johnson, Texans
8. Antonio Brown, Steelers
9. Julio Jones, Falcons
10. Robert Meachem, Saints
11. Nate Burleson, Lions
12. A.J. Green, Bengals
13. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
14. Lance Moore, Saints
15. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
16. Mario Manningham, Giants
17. Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers
18. Devery Henderson, Saints
19. Titus Young, Lions
20. Eric Decker, Broncos
21. Kevin Walter, Texans
22. Hines Ward, Steelers
23. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
24. Harry Douglas, Falcons

Analysis: I wouldn't say I'm necessarily scared off by Green Bay's Jennings, who last played in Week 14 before hurting a knee, but I would hardly refer to him as safe. I like the receivers in the Falcons-Giants game; one of those sets will get two games, perhaps more. Guess right on Cruz and he could be fantasy's top wide receiver in the playoffs. Lance Moore would rank better if we knew he was healthy enough to play. I think he sits a week, but don't exalt Meachem too much; the Saints do have running backs that catch passes, and a strong tight end. Finally, there's more playoff depth at wide receiver than at running back, so consider that in drafts.
Tight ends: Entire playoffs



1. Jimmy Graham, Saints
2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
3. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
4. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
5. Heath Miller, Steelers
6. Jermichael Finley, Packers
7. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
8. Vernon Davis, 49ers
9. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
10. Owen Daniels, Texans
11. Ed Dickson, Ravens
12. Jake Ballard, Giants
13. Joel Dreessen, Texans
14. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
15. Tony Scheffler, Lions
16. Delanie Walker, 49ers
17. Bear Pascoe, Giants
18. Daniel Fells, Broncos

Analysis: Graham over Gronk? Hey, it's not like there was a massive difference even in the regular season, and again, get your points this week. In GPC, I'd call Graham perhaps a must-get for this weekend, along with his quarterback and probably Sproles. In drafts I would consider Graham on par with the top wide receivers, too. Remember in GPC to wait a week on Patriots and Packers.
Kickers: Entire playoffs



1. John Kasay, Saints
2. Mason Crosby, Packers
3. Shaun Suisham, Steelers
4. David Akers, 49ers
5. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
6. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
7. Matt Bryant, Falcons
8. Billy Cundiff, Ravens
9. Mike Nugent, Bengals
10. Neil Rackers, Texans
11. Jason Hanson, Lions
12. Matt Prater, Broncos

Analysis: Don't overthink this position. Kasay should get his points, but he's not likely to get many field goal opportunities, either. That's what Akers does. C'mon, they're kickers. I've already said too much.
Defenses: Entire playoffs



1. Packers
2. Saints
3. Steelers
4. Ravens
5. 49ers
6. Patriots
7. Bengals
8. Texans
9. Giants
10. Falcons
11. Broncos
12. Lions

Analysis: Well, clearly I think the Steelers are a nice play here, since they could start outplaying Tebow and Flacco. But even if they face Brady, they've kept him in check before. You might be asking why the Packers and Saints rank so well when they aren't exactly juggernaut defenses. Well, I do think one of these teams is Super Bowl-bound -- I have the Saints versus the Steelers, personally -- and quantity of games matters. Plus, any defense is capable of forcing turnovers in January. Good luck this weekend and for the entire playoffs!