Matchups: Play Palmer
1:00PM ET Games
Dallas @ Washington
If the Redskins keep this game close, Dallas' recent defensive performance suggests Washington has the potential -- emphasis on potential -- to enjoy rushing success. Falling from No. 1 in the NFL's run defense rankings to No. 11, the Cowboys have served up an eye-popping 536 yards and three TDs on 85 carries (6.31 YPC) over their last three games. ILB Sean Lee's Week 10 return didn't help much, as Fred Jackson dropped 114 rushing yards on Dallas. Don't count on knowing the Redskins' starting tailback until just before game time, but if it's Roy Helu he'll be worth flex consideration, particularly in PPR. ... Ryan Torain has fallen off a cliff since his 135-yard effort in Week 4. In the ensuing five games, Torain has a pathetic 53 yards on 31 rushing attempts (1.71 YPC). During that same span, Helu has 87 yards on 19 carries (4.58 average). If Mike Shanahan goes with the tailback who gives him the best chance to win Sunday, he will turn back to Helu.
Rex Grossman threw two picks and didn't lead a touchdown drive in his return to the lineup last week, but he at least showed an ability to threaten defenses downfield. The incredibly turnover-prone Grossman is barely a two-QB league option, but I'd feel a bit better about Washington's pass-catching corps with Rex at the helm, as opposed to John Beck. ... Here is Grossman's target distribution on the season among fantasy-relevant players: Santana Moss 39, Jabar Gaffney 37, Fred Davis 36, Chris Cooley 13, Helu 11. ... It's a reminder that Moss should be picked up for the stretch run. He's going to push Davis for the Redskins' team lead in targets over the season's final 5-6 weeks. Shanahan says Moss (hand) could return as soon as Week 12. ... Davis' target total with Grossman is somewhat skewed by the fact that Cooley was still playing when Rex started the first five games. Davis should be fine long term, but it's worth remembering that the Cowboys sold out to stop him in Week 4, double teaming Davis on the majority of snaps and particularly in the red zone. Davis finished with year lows in catches (1) and yards (23). He's a risky TE1 this week.
Tony Romo is on a tear since having fully overcome his cracked ribs. Off the injury report and no longer needing painkillers to play, Romo has completed 42-of-57 passes (73.7%) for 549 yards (9.63 YPA) with five touchdowns and no turnovers in his last two games. These are my personal QB rankings for Week 11: 1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Tom Brady 3) Cam Newton 4) Romo 5) Carson Palmer. ... The Cowboys' passing game could have racked up prolific Week 10 stats if they hadn't taken the air out of the ball in the second half against Buffalo. Dez Bryant led the team in catches and receiving yards during the first two quarters and is a legit top-five fantasy receiver for Week 11. ... As mentioned in this space last week, Jason Witten leads Dallas in targets, catches, and yards when Miles Austin (hamstring) has missed games this season. He again led the team in targets last Sunday. In his last four meetings with the Redskins, Witten has averaged over six receptions for 86 yards a game. ... Romo only targeted Laurent Robinson three times in Week 10, at least partially due to the Cowboys' blowout win. But Robinson secured all three for 73 yards and two touchdowns, showing vertical speed on a 58-yard second-quarter scoring bomb. Robinson is the No. 3 option in the passing game until Austin returns, but he will continue to see constant single coverage and play all of the offensive snaps in an on-fire offense. He's a strong WR3 start.
The Redskins just can't score any points, so it's reasonable to believe that the Cowboys can grab an early lead and rack up rushing attempts with feature back DeMarco Murray in the third and/or fourth quarters. Even throwing out his 253-yard breakout game in Week 7 against the Rams, Murray has pounded his last three opponents for a combined 348 yards on 50 carries (6.96 YPC) and is averaging 143 total yards per game. ... Felix Jones is due back from his high ankle sprain on Sunday, and figures to share change-of-pace back work with rookie Phillip Tanner. These comments from Dallas owner Jerry Jones were especially telling this week: "One thing that comes to my mind is that Murray looks like the more he carries, the more effective he gets. ... Felix has always been a guy that looks like the best way for him to be his best is to inject him in spots."
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 13
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
The Browns rank 30th in offense and the Jags 32nd, so it shouldn't be surprising that this game easily has the lowest projected over/under (34.5 points) of Week 11. Avoid where possible. ... A good NFL running back would have generated far more than the 90 yards on 19 carries Chris Ogbonnaya managed against the Rams in Week 10. The Browns' O-Line consistently cleared mammoth holes on St. Louis, but Ogbonnaya lacks burst to exploit them. Ogbonnaya got a big chunk of his production on a third-quarter run for 32 yards, but has no second gear in the open field and was brought down from behind by Rams SLB Brady Poppinga, who is 32 years old and coming off a torn ACL. Ogbonnaya averaged a typical 3.2 YPC on his other 18 attempts. The expected absence of Jaguars NT Terrance Knighton (ankle) does improve his matchup slightly, but ultimately Ogbonnaya lacks the sheer talent to be more than a desperation fantasy option.
The Browns are getting the Jags at a good time with "Pot Roast" Knighton unlikely to play and top cornerback Rashean Mathis going on injured reserve this week. Cleveland's lone passing-game fantasy consideration remains Greg Little, who's coming off his most productive performance of the season (6-84) and continues to maintain a stranglehold on Colt McCoy's targets. Here is McCoy's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 5 bye: Little 44, Joshua Cribbs 24, Ben Watson 22, Evan Moore 13, Mohamed Massaquoi 10, Jordan Norwood 10. Little again led the Browns in targets in Week 10. ... Massaquoi's anticipated return from post-concussion symptoms would cut into Cribbs' playing time. ... Moore did not receive a single Week 10 target. ... Watson hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4 and is averaging 32 yards a game during that span.
The Jaguars rank dead last in the league in passing offense, and it's not even close. They're 32nd in completions, completion rate, passing yards per game, yards per pass attempt, 20-plus yard completions, and quarterback rating. And this week, they are facing the NFL's No. 1 pass defense. It's very difficult to imagine using any Jaguars pass catcher in this game. ... Jason Hill has a total of five yards on one reception in the last two weeks. I am aware that Hill had a fluky little run where he scored a touchdown in three of four games between Weeks 5-8. I also think you are pretending if you believe he's a fantasy option. ... Over the past three games, Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas have combined for 87 yards on 11 catches. Combined. Neither has scored a touchdown, and Lewis finished Week 10 with -4 yards. ... The forecast is brighter for Maurice Jones-Drew. Opposing tailbacks have touched up the Browns' collapsing run defense for 549 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 98 carries (5.60 YPC) across the last three games.
Score Prediction: Browns 17, Jaguars 7
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Bengals' loss of top CB Leon Hall to a ruptured Achilles' figures to weaken their pass defense significantly, but not enough to push Joe Flacco into QB1 territory. I watched Ravens-Seahawks twice this week, and came away with the impression that Flacco has lost his confidence. He was wildly inaccurate outside the numbers, consistently missing Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin down the sidelines. Flacco's 29 completions consisted largely of dump-offs to Ed Dickson (10-79-2), Dennis Pitta (4-49), and running backs in the flats. Flacco didn't make a single big-time throw the entire game. Ultimately, he targeted Smith and Boldin a combined 17 times. Together, they produced five catches for 50 yards. Flacco is a two-QB league option only, and I'm skeptical he'll ever make the leap to fantasy starter without a major surge in downfield accuracy. ... For Dickson, the question is whether this can become a trend. Dickson saw a career-high 14 targets at Seattle, with Flacco throwing a season-most 52 times. In this game, my bet would be against Dickson. Since Week 3, the Bengals have held opposing tight ends to an average of four catches for 40 yards per game. Only one tight end has scored a touchdown against Cincinnati during that span.
It's fair to be wary of Boldin and Smith after Week 10, but they should at least be open frequently on Sunday. Hall was easily Cincinnati's top cover corner, and the Bengals will now resort to some combo of Pacman Jones and Kelly Jennings opposite declining veteran Nate Clements. Boldin remains WR2/3 material, while Smith is a low-end WR3. Even if Lee Evans (ankle) finally returns, he'd be eased into three- and four-receiver sets. ... Ravens playcaller Cam Cameron ought to be embarrassed after getting Ray Rice only 13 offensive touches in Week 10, although Rice saved his fantasy day with a touchdown pass to Dickson. The last time Cameron ignored his top playmaker -- in Week 6 at Jacksonville -- Rice bounced back with 25 touches in the next game. While the Bengals' No. 2-ranked defense has been stout against the run this season, Rice has had historical success against it. In his last four matchups with Cincinnati, Rice has three touchdowns and a robust 4.53 YPC average. All told, he has averaged 118 total yards per game.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Cedric Benson was held to 131 yards and no touchdowns on 44 carries (2.98 YPC) in two matchups with Baltimore last year. This season, the Ravens' top-four run defense is allowing an NFL-low 3.27 yards a carry. Ray Lewis' (toe) absence wouldn't present enough of a downgrade to make Benson trustworthy; the Ravens still have 340-plus pounders Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody to clog the middle. ... A.J. Green is not expected to play after hyperextending his knee on last week's touchdown catch over Troy Polamalu. The Bengals lack consistency throughout the rest of their passing game, so this is going to have a big impact. Even on plays where Green has not caught passes this year, he has commanded a safety over the top. The Bengals' offense isn't going anywhere this week. ... Andy Dalton gets another brutal matchup against Baltimore's No. 6 pass defense. No NFL team has allowed fewer passing touchdowns, and only the Jets and Texans are holding opposing quarterbacks to lower passer ratings. Without Green, Dalton will struggle to keep his pass catchers afloat. ... No tight end has found pay dirt against the Ravens all season, and they've held players at the position to just 297 combined yards on 28 receptions through nine games. It's a three-catch, 33-yard average. I'd have very little faith in Jermaine Gresham this week. ... Held catch-less in Week 10, Jerome Simpson was outplayed by Andre Caldwell and undrafted free agent fourth receiver Andrew Hawkins. Avoid the situation.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 3
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Oakland @ Minnesota
Here is Carson Palmer's target distribution since replacing Kyle Boller in the third quarter of Week 7: Denarius Moore 22, Jacoby Ford 10, Michael Bush 8, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marcel Reece, and Louis Murphy 6. ... Moore has emerged as Palmer's go-to guy, securing 10 of the targets for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Oakland may have to throw to move the ball in this game because Minnesota's run defense is so stout, and Moore's matchup was always going to be favorable against a Vikings secondary that will be minus its top two corners (Antoine Winfield -- clavicle, Chris Cook -- suspension). Start Moore and don't look back. ... As the targets suggest, the rest of the Raiders' pass catchers are hands-off fantasy commodities until one separates from the pack. In terms of receiver-cornerback matchups, my guess would be that Heyward-Bey starts at split end and faces off with RCB Cedric Griffin for most of this game. As Oakland's starting flanker, Moore figures to draw oft-burned LCB Asher Allen. Heyward-Bey's matchup isn't poor, but it's hard to rely on wideouts coming off zero-target games. DHB has one target in Palmer's two starts.
Palmer has shown enough velocity and downfield accuracy to be considered a high-end QB1 in what might be his most favorable matchup all season. Having gone 33-of-55 (60%) for 631 yards (11.47 YPA) and five touchdowns through two starts, I wouldn't be opposed to rolling with Palmer the rest of the way while trading my "old" QB1 for lineup help elsewhere. Palmer has been extremely impressive. ... Rotating slot receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chaz Schilens have combined for 55 yards on four catches and no scores over the past two games. Avoid. ... Kevin Boss and Brandon Myers are non-factors to an even greater extent. Palmer rarely threw to tight ends in Cincinnati, and nothing has changed so far in Oakland. ... The Vikings rank sixth against the run and permit just 3.69 yards per carry, so this will be the toughest matchup Michael Bush has faced since replacing Darren McFadden (foot) as the Raiders' top tailback a month ago. It is worth nothing, though, that the Minnesota run defense has not yet faced a top-seven rushing offense, and the Raiders are No. 4. Bush is averaging 28 touches whenever he gets a start under Hue Jackson, so the volume is sure to be there. In spite of the difficult opponent, Bush is a borderline RB1 following a 10-day layoff to rest his legs after last Thursday night's 30-carry effort.
While Oakland's front seven returns fresh from a long layoff after last Thursday’s win, the Vikings are on a short week following a blowout Monday night loss. Christian Ponder got beat up in Green Bay, absorbing three sacks and six hits via Clay Matthews & Co. Ponder has flashed long-term promise through three starts, but he's completing just 50.5% of his throws with a 6.70 per-attempt average and has yet to clear 240 yards. The Vikes will likely remain light on passing-game volume going forward, hurting wideouts Devin Aromashodu and Michael Jenkins' chances of reaching fantasy viability. ... Aromashodu turned in a Berrianesque Week 10 effort, catching none of his six targets. He's not worth owning in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Jenkins has cleared 50 receiving yards in 2-of-9 games. Ponder isn't throwing to Jenkins much. ... Here is Ponder's target distribution over the past two games: Percy Harvin 13, Aromashodu 12, Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph 8, Jenkins and Adrian Peterson 6. ... Shiancoe and Rudolph might be worth a look in fantasy leagues if they were one player, but they're canceling each other out at this point.
Harvin played 32-of-62 snaps (51.6%) at Green Bay, in part because he missed some action with an in-game rolled ankle. While Harvin would offer significantly more upside if he were a full-time player, the Vikings can at least be counted on to get him the rock. Harvin received nine Week 10 touches, taking them for 70 total yards. He's a WR3 with WR2 upside for the stretch run, pending good health. ... Peterson's 14-51-1 line may not have secured many Week 10 fantasy wins, but the season-low carry total bodes well for his stamina and explosiveness in a matchup that's ripe for the picking. The Raiders rank 25th against the run and are permitting an AFC-high 5.16 yards per carry. In four home games on the Mall of America Field turf this season, Peterson has racked up seven TDs and 495 yards on 95 carries (5.21 YPC) with a 134-total yard average. With Arian Foster on a bye, Peterson is fantasy football's premier running back play for Week 11.
Score Prediction: Raiders 27, Vikings 20
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay
As noted in this space last week, the Bucs have been annihilated by the run without DT Gerald McCoy this season. The trend continued in Tampa's 37-9 home loss to Houston. In McCoy's three missed games so far, Bears, Saints, and Texans backs have torched the Buccaneers for 416 combined yards and six touchdowns on 72 carries (5.78 YPC). If James Starks is finally going to have a breakout game, there's a strong chance it will happen this week. Since the Packers' Week 8 bye, Starks has 30 touches compared to Ryan Grant's 13. Starks' yards-per-carry average is 4.96 during that span; Grant's 1.83. The Packers are destroying opponents at Lambeau, winning all four home games by at least eight points with an average score of 40-17. If this game plays out as it theoretically ought to, Starks should rack up carries in keep-the-lead mode. I like Starks as a solid flex play with upside in Week 11. ... In Green Bay's previous three games against the Cover-2 defenses of Minnesota (twice) and Chicago, Jermichael Finley scored four touchdowns and caught 12 passes for 165 yards. Finley's reception and yardage totals have been underwhelming this season, but he has a favorable matchup this week against the Bucs' Cover 2-style scheme.
Aaron Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes, yards per attempt, completion rate, and passer rating. In his last seven home games, Rodgers has accounted for 30 touchdowns -- an average of 4.3 per game. He's unstoppable. ... The Bucs rank 27th against the pass, 31st in sacks, and last in yards-per-pass attempt allowed. Whereas this is a nightmare matchup for Tampa, it's a dreamy one for Green Bay passing-game members. ... Jordy Nelson is averaging under six targets per game, but rare is the occasion that he's not open. He's on pace for over 1,125 yards and 12 scores. ... The Bucs have kept Aqib Talib at left corner only lately, with Ronde Barber at his usual RCB spot on early downs and guarding the slot in the nickel. Greg Jennings runs most of his routes at LWR and in the slot, so he's going to spend a lot of time in Barber's coverage. Appearing to fall off a cliff this season, the 36-year-old is Pro Football Focus' 103rd-rated cornerback in coverage, out of 105. ... James Jones entered last Monday night with just six targets in his last three games. He'd caught all six. Jones was targeted once against the Vikings, and caught it for a gain of nine. He has zero chance at fantasy reliability on this kind of usage.
After another clunker last week, LeGarrette Blount is averaging 9.5 touches for 48.5 yards with no touchdowns when the Bucs lose (four-game sample) this season. He's scored three TDs and is averaging 21 touches for 102 yards when Tampa wins (three games). Start Blount if you believe the Bucs can maintain a lead in this game. ... Since Week 3, Josh Freeman is 158-of-266 (59.4%) for 1,672 yards (6.29 YPA) with a 7:11 TD-to-INT ratio. They're bottom-barrel QB2 numbers. The Packers lead the NFL in interceptions, so this is a poor matchup for a turnover-prone quarterback. It is a good matchup for Green Bay's fantasy defense. ... Mike Williams was shut down by Johnathan Joseph last week and has not scored a touchdown since Week 1. He's cleared 60 yards once since the season's first month. Williams is a low-end WR3 option. ... Playing 43-of-63 snaps (68%) in Week 10, Arrelious Benn caught two balls for 47 yards. Dezmon Briscoe played 19 downs (30%) and didn't catch a pass after out-producing Benn in the Buccaneers' previous two games. Neither is a desirable fantasy wideout. ... Preston Parker is averaging 32 yards in his last five games. He has clearly overtaken Sammie Stroughter as Tampa Bay's full-time slot receiver, but is barely worth owning in fantasy leagues. ... Kellen Winslow is averaging a career-low 9.1 yards per reception and ranks 19th among tight ends in fantasy scoring. Aim higher in Week 11.
Score Prediction: Packers 38, Bucs 16
Carolina @ Detroit
The Panthers didn't make any lineup changes coming off their Week 9 bye. DeAngelo Williams continued to start despite Jonathan Stewart's superior performance and per-play production, and Brandon LaFell remains a part-time player behind Steve Smith and Legedu Naanee. Stewart has a favorable matchup against the Lions' No. 27 run defense, a unit yielding 4.94 yards per carry, but "Daily Show" will need a sudden and perhaps unforeseen increase in role to fulfill his fantasy potential. He's just a flex option. ... Williams is averaging 51 total yards per week with one touchdown on the season. It's hard to imagine using him at all, even against the NFL's poorest defenses. ... In Week 10 against Tennessee, LaFell managed one 18-yard catch on two targets. Seeing nine targets, Naanee caught eight balls for 75 yards, a significant chunk of which came in late-game garbage time of Carolina's 30-3 blowout loss. Naanee benefited both from the Titans' defensive strategy on Smith and lopsided score. You'd have to be convinced a similar scenario will play out in this game to give Naanee any Week 11 fantasy consideration. LaFell is a WR5.
Lions coordinator Gunther Cunningham runs an extremely aggressive, up-tempo defense that won't necessarily use the same bracketing tactics employed by Tennessee to stop Steve Smith. Only Packers-Bucs has a higher Week 11 over/under than Panthers-Lions, and Green Bay is a 14.5-point favorite. In other words, this is the best bet for a shootout among Sunday's games. As the NFC's leader in receiving yardage and league leader in 20-plus yard catches, Smith is set up nicely for a bounce-back effort. ... This game will be played beneath the Ford Field dome. Maybe it's a personal preference thing -- there's only debatable statistical evidence to back it up -- but I love using fantasy players indoors during the winter months. The Lions' No. 4 pass defense poses a tough matchup for Cam Newton on paper, but Newton has solidified himself as an every-week starter by ranking third among quarterbacks in fantasy points through nine weeks. Shake off last Sunday's clunker and confidently play Newton as a top-five quarterback in a potentially high-scoring affair.
After watching, then re-watching Detroit's Week 10 loss to Chicago, I tend to agree that Matthew Stafford's four-interception game was more attributable to high winds and poor decision making than his broken right (throwing) index finger. Seven dropped passes certainly didn't help, and as a Chicagoan I can attest that Sunday's winds were swirling with gusts in the 30-45 MPH range. Stafford now returns to the friendly confines of Ford Field, where he's collected a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 247-yard average in four games this season. The Panthers do rank a solid-looking 14th in pass defense, but that's in large part due to the fact that they've faced the third fewest pass attempts football. Detroit's offense is second in pass attempts, so tendencies suggest the Lions will keep on airing it out. Stafford may not be a top-five quarterback play this week, but he's definitely in the top ten. ... Calvin Johnson figures to draw Chris Gamble for most of this game, three weeks after abusing Champ Bailey for a 6-125-1 line. With at least 81 yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-9 games this season, Megatron has proven matchup-proof and is the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver.
Titus Young (7-74), Nate Burleson (8-83), and Tony Scheffler's (3-37-1) Week 10 stats were all inflated by Stafford's franchise record-setting 63 pass attempts at Soldier Field. While it's not crazy to believe one of the trio will have a big week in this potential shootout, nothing has changed in terms of their usage and lack of fantasy reliability. Young, Burleson, and Scheffler's temporarily increased roles did affect Brandon Pettigrew (5-38), with an emphasis on temporarily. Keep in mind that the Panthers have been particularly generous to tight ends, allowing opponents at the position to rack up an average of five receptions for 73 yards per week. My money would be on Pettigrew ranking second on the Lions in receiving in this game, much as he has all season. ... Newly re-signed Kevin Smith leapfrogged Keiland Williams for the Lions' No. 2 backfield spot last week, playing 28 snaps compared to Williams' six. Starter Maurice Morris was in for 44 plays, also leading the way with 11 touches. The Panthers rank 27th against the run and have allowed an NFL-high 12 rushing touchdowns, so this is as good a week as any to use Morris in a flex spot. Smith is worth monitoring in fantasy leagues. Williams can be safely sent back to waiver wires.
Score Prediction: Lions 30, Panthers 24
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Buffalo @ Miami
Predictably crashing back to earth after his short-lived hot start, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the No. 20 fantasy quarterback over the past five weeks. In his last six games, Fitz has a 7:9 TD-to-INT ratio while being held under 200 yards four times. This matchup is favorable on paper against Miami's No. 25 pass defense, but the Dolphins' secondary is much tougher with top CB Vontae Davis back in the lineup. Fitzpatrick simply isn't playing well for QB1 usage, settling in as a two-quarterback league option only. ... Also working against Fitzpatrick is No. 1 receiver Stevie Johnson's shoulder injury. Johnson is tentatively expected to play, but may not be 100% healthy. It's worth recalling that, like Fitzpatrick, Johnson's numbers fell off a cliff down the stretch last season. After averaging six catches for 81 yards with nine touchdowns in Fitzpatrick's initial nine starts, Johnson dwindled to an average line of 5-55 with one score in the final five. Particularly with Bills offensive linemen dropping like flies, I wouldn't hold out hope for a resurgence from Buffalo's passing game.
David Nelson and Donald Jones could experience expanded roles if Johnson is limited against Miami. While neither is a reliable, high-upside fantasy contributor, they'd both be solid bets to lead the Bills in Week 11 targets. Nelson is the No. 33 overall fantasy receiver and has been a more consistent presence in Buffalo's offense than Jones. ... The Dolphins haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 7, and Denver's Daniel Fells is the only tight end who's scored on Miami since Week 2. This bodes poorly for Scott Chandler, who needs TDs to matter in any given week. ... The Fins are defending the run well lately, but Fred Jackson has confirmed himself matchup-proof. In three previous games against top-11 run defenses this season, Jackson has two touchdowns and 254 rushing yards on 42 carries (6.05 YPC), averaging 125 total yards a game.
The Week 10 box score may indicate that the Dolphins' backfield has resumed committee status with Daniel Thomas seeing 17 carries and Reggie Bush 14 (plus four catches). Thomas, however, received six of his rushing attempts in fourth-quarter clock-killing mode, after a Bush touchdown run put Miami ahead for good, 20-9. Bush got the backfield's first five touches of the game. The Dolphins may get Thomas more and more involved as the season winds down, but there's little doubt that Bush is currently the lead back when games are in doubt. Over the last three weeks, Bush has averaged 18 touches for 105 total yards with three touchdowns. Thomas is averaging a pathetic 2.66 yards per carry since Week 3. Bush is the Fins' lone fantasy-relevant running back at the moment, and he's worth a long look as an RB2/flex against Buffalo's 23rd-ranked run defense.
In four career matchups with Buffalo, Brandon Marshall has racked up 340 yards and two scores on 34 receptions, good for an 8.5-catch, 85-yard average. With Matt Moore turning in back-to-back solid games, Marshall is teetering on WR1 status. He's also lapping the field in targets among Miami pass catchers with Moore under center: Marshall has 55 and Davone Bess is next closest with 33. In other words, when Moore drops back to throw, there's about a 35% chance he's going to Marshall. It's no surprise, then, that Marshall leads the league in "target rate." ... Here is the rest of Moore's target distribution: Bush 18, Brian Hartline 17, Anthony Fasano 15, Charles Clay 10. Beyond Marshall, there's nary a Fins pass catcher worth rostering in fantasy leagues, let alone starting. ... Moore has historically been incapable of sustained success, but he's now completing 63% of his passes, and that's all Marshall owners can ask. Two-quarterback leaguers could do worse than Moore against Buffalo, though. The Bills rank 27th versus the pass.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 21, Bills 17
4:05PM ET Games
Seattle @ St. Louis
Marshawn Lynch leads the NFL in touches over the past two weeks, and this matchup is right for another heavy, productive workload. As explained in the Browns-Jags breakdown, the St. Louis front seven allows massive holes through which even the league's worst running backs can glide unscathed. Lynch is worth flex consideration because of his Week 11 opponent; just don't count on long-term success. The Seahawks lost the entire right side of their line (RG John Moffitt, RT James Carpenter) to year-ending knee injuries this week, and continuity is pivotal for OL coach Tom Cable's zone-blocking scheme. ... Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin were both concussed in Week 10, but have been medically cleared to play. With Al Harris (knee) the latest to land on I.R., St. Louis has lost four of its top five cornerbacks since August. Set to square off with Rams LCB Justin King -- Pro Football Focus' 105th-rated corner out of 105 -- Rice is a WR2 in this matchup. ... Baldwin remains the second best bet on Seattle's roster for receiving stats, but he's hard to trust with a 38.5-yard average and no TDs since the Week 6 bye. ... Ben Obomanu and Big Mike Williams aren't worth fantasy roster spots. ... Tarvaris Jackson may be most adversely affected by Carpenter and Moffitt's losses. Their replacements will be Paul McQuistan and severe protection liability Breno Giacomini. Rams sack leader Chris Long will square off with Giacomini.
Here is Sam Bradford's target distribution since returning from his high ankle sprain two games ago: Brandon Lloyd 22, Austin Pettis 9, Greg Salas 9, Brandon Gibson 8, Steven Jackson 5. ... Bradford targeted Lloyd a team-high nine times last week despite Browns lockdown CB Joe Haden's shadow coverage. The Rams are forcing Lloyd the rock, and he will go from facing one of the NFL's top corners to one of the worst in Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner. I'd think of Lloyd as a legit top-five fantasy receiver in Week 11. ... Mark Clayton was not targeted in his 2011 debut last week, playing 10-of-63 snaps. He won't be a fantasy option until his role grows. ... Danario Alexander (hamstring), Gibson (groin), and Lance Kendricks (foot) have all been banged up and unproductive lately. Behind Lloyd, Pettis is the only Rams pass catcher worth a look in fantasy leagues. It's worth noting that the middle of Seattle's defense was open for much of last week's matchup with Baltimore, as Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta combined for 21 targets, 14 receptions, 128 yards, and two touchdowns. As a slot receiver, Pettis runs virtually all of his routes over the middle. ... It's well known by now that Seattle has a run-tough defense, but it's also fair to wonder if they're springing some leaks. Over the past two games, Ravens and Cowboys rushers have tagged the Seahawks for 238 yards on 41 carries (5.80 YPC). S-Jax is playing too well to bench.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 17
Arizona @ San Francisco
Three weeks ago, it was reasonable to worry that John Skelton's inaccuracy would negatively impact Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy stats. Time has calmed those concerns, and Fitzgerald is now coming off his most high-scoring effort since the Kurt Warner era. Whereas Fitz managed an average of under five catches for 86 yards with two touchdowns in Kevin Kolb's seven starts earlier this season, the All-Pro wideout is averaging 6.3 catches for 89.5 yards with four TDs in Skelton's six career starts. Skelton is 2-0 so far and figures to continue to start over Kolb until he loses. ... Touched up for 311 yards, two touchdowns, and a 65.0 completion rate by Eli Manning last week, the secondary has been San Francisco's defensive weakness. Skelton isn't a realistic standard-league fantasy option, but he is aggressive with a big enough arm to be worth a look in two-QB leagues. ... Slot receiver Early Doucet will get the Carlos Rogers treatment on the heavy majority of his Week 11 snaps. Doucet plays more when Arizona falls behind, but ultimately both he and Andre Roberts offer little upside. ... Having failed to average 4.0 YPC in every game since Week 4, Beanie Wells is a flex option only against San Francisco's top-ranked run defense. He'd need to be healthier and playing far better in order to be a confident fantasy play in this matchup.
A matchup with Arizona's 24th-ranked pass defense might look good for Alex Smith on paper, but he simply lacks talent and passing volume to enter the QB1 realm. Weak armed and ineffective as realized by his own coach, Smith ranks 24th in pass attempts, 23rd in yards, and is tied for 18th in passing touchdowns. He's strictly a game manager, and that's never going to lead to top-15 quarterback stats. ... Vernon Davis is prone to getting stuck on the line blocking when the 49ers face elite pass rushers, but the Cardinals haven't got one. He'll give SS Adrian Wilson fits down the seam. ... Michael Crabtree's yardage numbers have dropped in four straight weeks, and he's scored once all year. While this is a favorable matchup in theory, Crabtree has proven unreliable even as a WR3 since Braylon Edwards returned from knee surgery. ... The last time we were worried about Frank Gore's (knee) availability for a game, the 49ers announced Kendall Hunter as their Week 4 starter. Gore promptly came "off the bench" to pound Philadelphia for 127 yards and a touchdown on 15 rushing attempts, also catching two passes for 12 yards. Hunter totaled 100 scoreless yards on 11 touches. In my view, the lesson learned is to always bet on Gore as opposed to against him. Hunter would be a low-end flex option with Gore fully expected to start.
Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Cardinals 17
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4:15PM ET Games
Tennessee @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan didn't play nearly as well in Week 10 as his 351 yards and two touchdowns suggest, and he'll now square off with a Titans secondary that thoroughly shut down Cam Newton and Steve Smith last Sunday. Ryan was 10-of-18 for 122 yards and no scores at halftime, before no-huddle, hurry-up mode translated to 34 second-half pass attempts. While Tennessee's defense has seemed up and down this season, the play of the pass defense has been consistently good, particularly at cornerback. As he's been all year, Ryan is just a borderline starter. He's the No. 11 overall fantasy quarterback. ... In four home games, Michael Turner has five touchdowns and is averaging 21.5 carries for over 101 yards. Tennessee plays the pass far better than the run, ranking 22nd in rush defense and surrendering nearly 4.4 yards a carry. Be sure to sell Turner high immediately after this game. His next two matchups are against Houston and Minnesota's top-six run defenses, and if this season ends anything like the last, Turner will be out of gas by the fantasy playoffs.
Julio Jones has battled pulls to both of his hamstrings this season, and the Falcons' actions this week indicate they plan to hold him out against Tennessee. Jones hasn't participated in a single practice. Said coach Mike Smith, "We have to make sure we make the right decision for putting a player back out on the field for a short-term goal and hurt us for a long-term goal." Harry Douglas racked up 133 yards on eight Week 10 catches, though he had just one reception at halftime, before Ryan's pass attempts spiked in the final two quarters. Douglas plays often in the slot, so he figures to match up frequently with Cortland Finnegan on passing downs. Finnegan is playing at a borderline All-Pro level. ... Roddy White has the best matchup among Falcons receivers. White plays the majority of his snaps at flanker and will face LCB Jason McCourty for much of Sunday. McCourty has been solid, but overall is still the Titans' weakest corner in coverage. ... Whereas Tennessee's defense gets consistently effective cornerback play, the safeties are often exposed. It shows up statistically in opposing tight ends' production. Over the last six games, the Titans have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends and 35 catches for 472 yards. It's a weekly average of 79 yards on just under six receptions, and bodes well for Gonzalez’s Week 11 matchup.
I re-watched Titans-Panthers in hopes of seeing increased explosiveness from Chris Johnson in his season-best fantasy game (27-130-1, 4-44). I came away disappointed. While Johnson ran hard after contact on a few occasions, ultimately his speed and quickness are ordinary, and his effort remains inconsistent snap to snap. Johnson benefited from the widest lanes he's witnessed all year against Carolina's No. 28 run defense, in addition to clock-killing, blowout mode after the Titans surged to a 17-0 halftime lead. Now facing a Falcons defense that ranks third against the run and hasn't allowed a rushing score since Week 6, don't be surprised if Johnson goes back in the tank on Sunday. Consider him a risky, low-end RB2/flex. ... Here is Matt Hasselbeck's target distribution over the past three games: Damian Williams 19, Johnson 18, Nate Washington 16, Lavelle Hawkins and Jared Cook 13, Javon Ringer 11. ... It's fair to wonder if Williams has passed Washington as Tennessee's No. 1 receiver. In addition to the edge in targets, Williams has more yards than Washington in each of the last three weeks. He's also got a more favorable Week 11 matchup. Williams will spend most of this game in burnable RCB Dunta Robinson's coverage, while Washington deals with LCB Brent Grimes. ... Whereas Atlanta ranks third against the run, the Falcons' pass defense is a vulnerable 23rd. Hasselbeck is a respectable two-QB league play.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Titans 17
San Diego @ Chicago
The Bears' in-season offensive transformation is commonly discussed, but their sudden defensive dominance has played the biggest role during a four-game win streak. In the last month, Chicago has limited quarterbacks to 111-of-194 passing (57.2%) for 1,082 yards (5.58 YPA), three passing scores, and nine interceptions. And it isn't as if the Bears are playing chump opponents. They've faced Matthew Stafford, a healthy Michael Vick, and Josh Freeman consecutively, and that trio has accounted for all nine picks. Particularly with the elements threatening to be an issue at Soldier Field, this will be a daunting matchup for NFL interceptions leader Philip Rivers. Rivers is playing terribly, and won't have LT Marcus McNeill (neck) to guard against Julius Peppers. If you've seen replacement left tackle Brandyn Dombrowski play this season or last, you'll know Rivers is best left on Week 11 fantasy benches. ... This is obviously a concern for Vincent Jackson, who is worth starting only because he's a freakish talent with legit week-winning fantasy upside. ... Vincent Brown will make another start in place of Malcom Floyd, who has bypassed Chaz Schilens as the most brittle wide receiver in football this season. Brown is gaining Rivers' trust, graduating from comeback-mode option in Week 9 to the Chargers' target leader in Week 10. He's a viable WR3.
While the Bears' pass defense has been a shutdown force, Chicago is permitting the third highest yards-per-carry average (5.11) in the league. With Rivers struggling, San Diego's best game-plan approach would be to attack the Bears with the run. Ryan Mathews' legs should be as fresh as they've been all season after receiving a year-low six carries in Week 10, followed by a ten-day layoff after a Thursday night game. The Chargers' offense has functioned at optimal levels only when Mathews has gotten the football 20-plus times per game. San Diego is 3-0 when Mathews gets at least 21 touches, compared to 1-4 when he doesn’t clear that benchmark. ... Mike Tolbert has been a third-down and goal-line back only with Mathews at 100%. Tolbert should receive 8-12 touches against the Bears, but will probably need a short touchdown plunge to be a worthwhile fantasy start. He's a low-end flex play. ... Since returning from his foot injury after the Chargers' Week 6 bye, Antonio Gates is averaging 5.5 receptions for nearly 70 yards per week with two touchdowns in four games. The Bears have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any defense in the league.
Over the Chargers' last five games, Michael Bush, Jackie Battle, Shonn Greene, James Starks, and Willis McGahee have lit them up for a combined for 530 yards on 98 carries (5.41 YPC). It's one of the most favorable matchups Matt Forte will get all season. ... Jay Cutler's impact has been minimized with Forte and the Bears' defense playing lights out football. Cutler hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games, and coach Lovie Smith would probably like to keep it that way. Cutler is only a two-QB league option. ... With passing attempts and overall efficiency way down in Chicago, Earl Bennett has been the Bears’ sole productive fantasy receiver. The slot man has caught all 11 of his targets for 176 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. Bennett will likely never evolve into a non-PPR difference-maker, but he's a respectable WR3 in PPR. ... Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams haven't been getting enough targets or receptions in the Bears' revised offense for any hint of fantasy confidence. None of them is even worth owning.
Score Prediction: Bears 21, Chargers 20
Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Vince Young has not been a top-25 quarterback in fantasy points per game since his rookie year in 2006, and I'd be hard pressed to consider him better than a top-20 QB play in Week 11. While Young's supporting cast would appear to be the best he's ever played with, fantasy owners should note that Jeremy Maclin (shoulder) won't play, and DeSean Jackson has struggled to beat two-deep safety coverage all season. Not helping matters is the fact that the Giants generate more pressure than any team in football, leading the NFL in sacks despite nine combined missed games from Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. I still believe Young is better than 7-10 current starting quarterbacks around the league, and that the Redskins should have signed him to start over Rex Grossman and John Beck. But I wouldn't use him in a fantasy league this week. ... My pick to lead Eagles in catches Sunday is Brent Celek. Young loves to check it down to tight ends, dating back to David Thomas at the University of Texas and Bo Scaife during their time in Nashville. Celek also leads Philly in targets over the past four games (34).
The Eagles' skill player likely to be least affected by the insertion of V.Y. is LeSean McCoy. As he did with Vick under center, McCoy will benefit from Young's run threat, which keeps linebackers on their heels and lanes open up the middle. While coach Andy Reid's offensive philosophy has long been pass heavy, it's also quite possible that he'll install a run-first approach for this particular game. It will be Young's first career start in a West Coast system, and there's little doubt that leaning heavily on McCoy would be Philadelphia's best option. ... Without a touchdown or a game over 46 yards since Week 5, Jackson needs to be considered strictly a WR3 until he picks it up. While it's difficult to put D-Jax's big-play ability on the bench in fantasy leagues, he just hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt with his recent performance. ... Riley Cooper, a 6-foot-3, 224-pound red-zone specialist, will get the start for Maclin at split end. Cooper has flashed field-stretching ability in exhibition games, but has just seven catches through two NFL seasons. ... Jason Avant will return to his slot receiver duties with Steve Smith seeing scant playing time against the G-Men. Cooper, despite limited pro experience, would be a higher-upside fantasy bet than both.
Practicing fully again after a lingering hamstring injury, Hakeem Nicks is off the injury report and has resumed full-time receiver duties. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Nicks as the fourth-best fantasy wide receiver for Week 11. ... Eli Manning lit up this same Eagles defense for 254 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3. Through the season’s initial two and a half months, Manning is the No. 6 fantasy quarterback and an every-week starter. ... Mario Manningham missed the aforementioned Eagles-Giants game with a concussion, leading to a monster (3-110-2) day for Victor Cruz. Mario has been near or at 100% over the last three weeks, finding pay dirt in three straight games. He will be a recommended WR3 going forward. ... Behind Nicks, here is the Giants' target distribution during that three-week span: Cruz 31, Manningham 26, Jake Ballard 18.
I've had a difficult time coming to terms with the fact that Cruz can be a consistent fantasy scorer as the No. 3 receiver behind two marquee talents. But his production speaks for itself, and the Giants' passing game is playing at an efficient enough level for Cruz to stay consistent. He plays in all passing formations and has at least 84 yards in six of his last seven games. The Eagles' Achilles' heel in pass defense has been the slot, where Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is out with a high ankle sprain. Cruz is the Giants' slot receiver. ... Ballard has cooled off since a hot run during Weeks 4-6, averaging four catches for 52 yards in his last three games. He's a fantasy backup with byes ending in Week 12. ... Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) will miss one more week, setting up Brandon Jacobs for another feature back workload. Jacobs has 42 touches over the last two weeks, and the Eagles' undersized front seven doesn't match up well with his bulldozing, downhill running style. The Giants should successfully keep the chains moving in this game, setting up Jacobs for red-zone carries. He'll be a good bet for at least 80 yards and a touchdown or two.
Score Prediction: Giants 28, Eagles 17
Monday Night Football
Kansas City @ New England
Coming off a 37-16 throttling of the division-rival Jets, New England is poised for a red-hot finish. Only one of their remaining seven opponents has a winning record -- the reeling Bills, in Week 17 -- and combined they are 21-43 (.328). At the forefront is sure to be Tom Brady, and last week's three-touchdown, 329-yard performance reconfirmed Tom Terrific as matchup-proof. Kansas City ranks dead last in sacks and has allowed the third most 20-plus yard pass plays in football. Brady is a lead-pipe lock for a big Monday night. ... After a two-game lull in Weeks 4-5, Rob Gronkowski is on an absolute tear. He's caught at least seven passes in four straight games, averaging 95.5 yards with three TDs during that span while once again pushing Jimmy Graham for top billing among fantasy tight ends. K.C. might have the league's weakest safety duo in Jon McGraw and Kendrick Lewis, so there should be enough openings for both of New England's tight ends to exploit. ... Here is Brady's target distribution since the Patriots' Week 7 bye: Gronk 35, Wes Welker 26, Deion Branch 21, Aaron Hernandez 14, Chad Ochocinco 8. ... The Pats have tried to give Ochocinco opportunities at Branch's expense, but Ocho has failed to capitalize. Branch is never a good bet for high receiving yardage totals, but has four touchdowns in his last six games.
Welker leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and has at least six catches in all but one game this season. The Chiefs "play sides" in coverage, always leaving Brandon Flowers at left corner with Brandon Carr on the right and Javier Arenas inside. Welker will square off with Arenas for the majority of this game. ... The Patriots' backfield has been maddening from a playing time and touches standpoint since Kevin Faulk came off PUP in Week 8. Faulk, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley are barely worth owning in fantasy leagues, but this game has the potential to set up well for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. New England should whip the Tyler Palko-led Chiefs from start to finish, and Green-Ellis' role always increases in "keep-the-lead" mode. Shake off Law Firm's slow four-game stretch and use him as an RB2/flex against the Chiefs' No. 26 run defense.
Matt Cassel's hand surgery leaves the Chiefs with little hope on offense. Essentially a poor man's Bruce Gradkowski, Palko will be Kansas City's starting quarterback until Todd Haley inevitably benches him for rookie Ricky Stanzi. In 2007, Palko went undrafted out of Pittsburgh due to severe talent limitations, standing just 6-foot-1, running a 4.83 forty, and possessing an incredibly weak arm. He was a noodle-armed scrambler in college. Palko is also left-handed, meaning protection liability Barry Richardson will be on his blind side. Through nine games, Pro Football Focus has graded Richardson 70th out of 74 tackles in pass blocking. In five career preseasons, Palko has completed 133-of-243 passes (54.7%) for 1,423 yards (5.86 YPA), five touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He has also fumbled 10 times, losing four. Fire up the Patriots’ fantasy defense.
Kansas City's backfield also needs to be avoided. Jackie Battle receives substantial workloads only when the Chiefs are out in front, and his carry totals have dropped in three straight weeks. The Patriots figure to control this game, limiting Battle's playing time. ... It is perhaps conceivable that Palko could check down to Dexter McCluster relentlessly with a weak arm and what projects as awful pass protection. It's just not a bankable fantasy situation. ... Dwayne Bowe is still worth WR3 consideration because New England was playing the pass so poorly even before top CB Devin McCourty separated his right shoulder. ... Passing-game efficiency is a lock to dwindle in Kansas City, however, leaving very little appeal for secondary targets Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin. Even in the most favorable matchups, Palko will have trouble clearing 200 passing yards.
Score Prediction: Patriots 45, Chiefs 3
1:00PM ET Games
Dallas @ Washington
If the Redskins keep this game close, Dallas' recent defensive performance suggests Washington has the potential -- emphasis on potential -- to enjoy rushing success. Falling from No. 1 in the NFL's run defense rankings to No. 11, the Cowboys have served up an eye-popping 536 yards and three TDs on 85 carries (6.31 YPC) over their last three games. ILB Sean Lee's Week 10 return didn't help much, as Fred Jackson dropped 114 rushing yards on Dallas. Don't count on knowing the Redskins' starting tailback until just before game time, but if it's Roy Helu he'll be worth flex consideration, particularly in PPR. ... Ryan Torain has fallen off a cliff since his 135-yard effort in Week 4. In the ensuing five games, Torain has a pathetic 53 yards on 31 rushing attempts (1.71 YPC). During that same span, Helu has 87 yards on 19 carries (4.58 average). If Mike Shanahan goes with the tailback who gives him the best chance to win Sunday, he will turn back to Helu.
Rex Grossman threw two picks and didn't lead a touchdown drive in his return to the lineup last week, but he at least showed an ability to threaten defenses downfield. The incredibly turnover-prone Grossman is barely a two-QB league option, but I'd feel a bit better about Washington's pass-catching corps with Rex at the helm, as opposed to John Beck. ... Here is Grossman's target distribution on the season among fantasy-relevant players: Santana Moss 39, Jabar Gaffney 37, Fred Davis 36, Chris Cooley 13, Helu 11. ... It's a reminder that Moss should be picked up for the stretch run. He's going to push Davis for the Redskins' team lead in targets over the season's final 5-6 weeks. Shanahan says Moss (hand) could return as soon as Week 12. ... Davis' target total with Grossman is somewhat skewed by the fact that Cooley was still playing when Rex started the first five games. Davis should be fine long term, but it's worth remembering that the Cowboys sold out to stop him in Week 4, double teaming Davis on the majority of snaps and particularly in the red zone. Davis finished with year lows in catches (1) and yards (23). He's a risky TE1 this week.
Tony Romo is on a tear since having fully overcome his cracked ribs. Off the injury report and no longer needing painkillers to play, Romo has completed 42-of-57 passes (73.7%) for 549 yards (9.63 YPA) with five touchdowns and no turnovers in his last two games. These are my personal QB rankings for Week 11: 1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Tom Brady 3) Cam Newton 4) Romo 5) Carson Palmer. ... The Cowboys' passing game could have racked up prolific Week 10 stats if they hadn't taken the air out of the ball in the second half against Buffalo. Dez Bryant led the team in catches and receiving yards during the first two quarters and is a legit top-five fantasy receiver for Week 11. ... As mentioned in this space last week, Jason Witten leads Dallas in targets, catches, and yards when Miles Austin (hamstring) has missed games this season. He again led the team in targets last Sunday. In his last four meetings with the Redskins, Witten has averaged over six receptions for 86 yards a game. ... Romo only targeted Laurent Robinson three times in Week 10, at least partially due to the Cowboys' blowout win. But Robinson secured all three for 73 yards and two touchdowns, showing vertical speed on a 58-yard second-quarter scoring bomb. Robinson is the No. 3 option in the passing game until Austin returns, but he will continue to see constant single coverage and play all of the offensive snaps in an on-fire offense. He's a strong WR3 start.
The Redskins just can't score any points, so it's reasonable to believe that the Cowboys can grab an early lead and rack up rushing attempts with feature back DeMarco Murray in the third and/or fourth quarters. Even throwing out his 253-yard breakout game in Week 7 against the Rams, Murray has pounded his last three opponents for a combined 348 yards on 50 carries (6.96 YPC) and is averaging 143 total yards per game. ... Felix Jones is due back from his high ankle sprain on Sunday, and figures to share change-of-pace back work with rookie Phillip Tanner. These comments from Dallas owner Jerry Jones were especially telling this week: "One thing that comes to my mind is that Murray looks like the more he carries, the more effective he gets. ... Felix has always been a guy that looks like the best way for him to be his best is to inject him in spots."
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Redskins 13
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
The Browns rank 30th in offense and the Jags 32nd, so it shouldn't be surprising that this game easily has the lowest projected over/under (34.5 points) of Week 11. Avoid where possible. ... A good NFL running back would have generated far more than the 90 yards on 19 carries Chris Ogbonnaya managed against the Rams in Week 10. The Browns' O-Line consistently cleared mammoth holes on St. Louis, but Ogbonnaya lacks burst to exploit them. Ogbonnaya got a big chunk of his production on a third-quarter run for 32 yards, but has no second gear in the open field and was brought down from behind by Rams SLB Brady Poppinga, who is 32 years old and coming off a torn ACL. Ogbonnaya averaged a typical 3.2 YPC on his other 18 attempts. The expected absence of Jaguars NT Terrance Knighton (ankle) does improve his matchup slightly, but ultimately Ogbonnaya lacks the sheer talent to be more than a desperation fantasy option.
The Browns are getting the Jags at a good time with "Pot Roast" Knighton unlikely to play and top cornerback Rashean Mathis going on injured reserve this week. Cleveland's lone passing-game fantasy consideration remains Greg Little, who's coming off his most productive performance of the season (6-84) and continues to maintain a stranglehold on Colt McCoy's targets. Here is McCoy's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 5 bye: Little 44, Joshua Cribbs 24, Ben Watson 22, Evan Moore 13, Mohamed Massaquoi 10, Jordan Norwood 10. Little again led the Browns in targets in Week 10. ... Massaquoi's anticipated return from post-concussion symptoms would cut into Cribbs' playing time. ... Moore did not receive a single Week 10 target. ... Watson hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4 and is averaging 32 yards a game during that span.
The Jaguars rank dead last in the league in passing offense, and it's not even close. They're 32nd in completions, completion rate, passing yards per game, yards per pass attempt, 20-plus yard completions, and quarterback rating. And this week, they are facing the NFL's No. 1 pass defense. It's very difficult to imagine using any Jaguars pass catcher in this game. ... Jason Hill has a total of five yards on one reception in the last two weeks. I am aware that Hill had a fluky little run where he scored a touchdown in three of four games between Weeks 5-8. I also think you are pretending if you believe he's a fantasy option. ... Over the past three games, Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas have combined for 87 yards on 11 catches. Combined. Neither has scored a touchdown, and Lewis finished Week 10 with -4 yards. ... The forecast is brighter for Maurice Jones-Drew. Opposing tailbacks have touched up the Browns' collapsing run defense for 549 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 98 carries (5.60 YPC) across the last three games.
Score Prediction: Browns 17, Jaguars 7
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The Bengals' loss of top CB Leon Hall to a ruptured Achilles' figures to weaken their pass defense significantly, but not enough to push Joe Flacco into QB1 territory. I watched Ravens-Seahawks twice this week, and came away with the impression that Flacco has lost his confidence. He was wildly inaccurate outside the numbers, consistently missing Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin down the sidelines. Flacco's 29 completions consisted largely of dump-offs to Ed Dickson (10-79-2), Dennis Pitta (4-49), and running backs in the flats. Flacco didn't make a single big-time throw the entire game. Ultimately, he targeted Smith and Boldin a combined 17 times. Together, they produced five catches for 50 yards. Flacco is a two-QB league option only, and I'm skeptical he'll ever make the leap to fantasy starter without a major surge in downfield accuracy. ... For Dickson, the question is whether this can become a trend. Dickson saw a career-high 14 targets at Seattle, with Flacco throwing a season-most 52 times. In this game, my bet would be against Dickson. Since Week 3, the Bengals have held opposing tight ends to an average of four catches for 40 yards per game. Only one tight end has scored a touchdown against Cincinnati during that span.
It's fair to be wary of Boldin and Smith after Week 10, but they should at least be open frequently on Sunday. Hall was easily Cincinnati's top cover corner, and the Bengals will now resort to some combo of Pacman Jones and Kelly Jennings opposite declining veteran Nate Clements. Boldin remains WR2/3 material, while Smith is a low-end WR3. Even if Lee Evans (ankle) finally returns, he'd be eased into three- and four-receiver sets. ... Ravens playcaller Cam Cameron ought to be embarrassed after getting Ray Rice only 13 offensive touches in Week 10, although Rice saved his fantasy day with a touchdown pass to Dickson. The last time Cameron ignored his top playmaker -- in Week 6 at Jacksonville -- Rice bounced back with 25 touches in the next game. While the Bengals' No. 2-ranked defense has been stout against the run this season, Rice has had historical success against it. In his last four matchups with Cincinnati, Rice has three touchdowns and a robust 4.53 YPC average. All told, he has averaged 118 total yards per game.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Cedric Benson was held to 131 yards and no touchdowns on 44 carries (2.98 YPC) in two matchups with Baltimore last year. This season, the Ravens' top-four run defense is allowing an NFL-low 3.27 yards a carry. Ray Lewis' (toe) absence wouldn't present enough of a downgrade to make Benson trustworthy; the Ravens still have 340-plus pounders Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody to clog the middle. ... A.J. Green is not expected to play after hyperextending his knee on last week's touchdown catch over Troy Polamalu. The Bengals lack consistency throughout the rest of their passing game, so this is going to have a big impact. Even on plays where Green has not caught passes this year, he has commanded a safety over the top. The Bengals' offense isn't going anywhere this week. ... Andy Dalton gets another brutal matchup against Baltimore's No. 6 pass defense. No NFL team has allowed fewer passing touchdowns, and only the Jets and Texans are holding opposing quarterbacks to lower passer ratings. Without Green, Dalton will struggle to keep his pass catchers afloat. ... No tight end has found pay dirt against the Ravens all season, and they've held players at the position to just 297 combined yards on 28 receptions through nine games. It's a three-catch, 33-yard average. I'd have very little faith in Jermaine Gresham this week. ... Held catch-less in Week 10, Jerome Simpson was outplayed by Andre Caldwell and undrafted free agent fourth receiver Andrew Hawkins. Avoid the situation.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 3
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Oakland @ Minnesota
Here is Carson Palmer's target distribution since replacing Kyle Boller in the third quarter of Week 7: Denarius Moore 22, Jacoby Ford 10, Michael Bush 8, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marcel Reece, and Louis Murphy 6. ... Moore has emerged as Palmer's go-to guy, securing 10 of the targets for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Oakland may have to throw to move the ball in this game because Minnesota's run defense is so stout, and Moore's matchup was always going to be favorable against a Vikings secondary that will be minus its top two corners (Antoine Winfield -- clavicle, Chris Cook -- suspension). Start Moore and don't look back. ... As the targets suggest, the rest of the Raiders' pass catchers are hands-off fantasy commodities until one separates from the pack. In terms of receiver-cornerback matchups, my guess would be that Heyward-Bey starts at split end and faces off with RCB Cedric Griffin for most of this game. As Oakland's starting flanker, Moore figures to draw oft-burned LCB Asher Allen. Heyward-Bey's matchup isn't poor, but it's hard to rely on wideouts coming off zero-target games. DHB has one target in Palmer's two starts.
Palmer has shown enough velocity and downfield accuracy to be considered a high-end QB1 in what might be his most favorable matchup all season. Having gone 33-of-55 (60%) for 631 yards (11.47 YPA) and five touchdowns through two starts, I wouldn't be opposed to rolling with Palmer the rest of the way while trading my "old" QB1 for lineup help elsewhere. Palmer has been extremely impressive. ... Rotating slot receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chaz Schilens have combined for 55 yards on four catches and no scores over the past two games. Avoid. ... Kevin Boss and Brandon Myers are non-factors to an even greater extent. Palmer rarely threw to tight ends in Cincinnati, and nothing has changed so far in Oakland. ... The Vikings rank sixth against the run and permit just 3.69 yards per carry, so this will be the toughest matchup Michael Bush has faced since replacing Darren McFadden (foot) as the Raiders' top tailback a month ago. It is worth nothing, though, that the Minnesota run defense has not yet faced a top-seven rushing offense, and the Raiders are No. 4. Bush is averaging 28 touches whenever he gets a start under Hue Jackson, so the volume is sure to be there. In spite of the difficult opponent, Bush is a borderline RB1 following a 10-day layoff to rest his legs after last Thursday night's 30-carry effort.
While Oakland's front seven returns fresh from a long layoff after last Thursday’s win, the Vikings are on a short week following a blowout Monday night loss. Christian Ponder got beat up in Green Bay, absorbing three sacks and six hits via Clay Matthews & Co. Ponder has flashed long-term promise through three starts, but he's completing just 50.5% of his throws with a 6.70 per-attempt average and has yet to clear 240 yards. The Vikes will likely remain light on passing-game volume going forward, hurting wideouts Devin Aromashodu and Michael Jenkins' chances of reaching fantasy viability. ... Aromashodu turned in a Berrianesque Week 10 effort, catching none of his six targets. He's not worth owning in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Jenkins has cleared 50 receiving yards in 2-of-9 games. Ponder isn't throwing to Jenkins much. ... Here is Ponder's target distribution over the past two games: Percy Harvin 13, Aromashodu 12, Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph 8, Jenkins and Adrian Peterson 6. ... Shiancoe and Rudolph might be worth a look in fantasy leagues if they were one player, but they're canceling each other out at this point.
Harvin played 32-of-62 snaps (51.6%) at Green Bay, in part because he missed some action with an in-game rolled ankle. While Harvin would offer significantly more upside if he were a full-time player, the Vikings can at least be counted on to get him the rock. Harvin received nine Week 10 touches, taking them for 70 total yards. He's a WR3 with WR2 upside for the stretch run, pending good health. ... Peterson's 14-51-1 line may not have secured many Week 10 fantasy wins, but the season-low carry total bodes well for his stamina and explosiveness in a matchup that's ripe for the picking. The Raiders rank 25th against the run and are permitting an AFC-high 5.16 yards per carry. In four home games on the Mall of America Field turf this season, Peterson has racked up seven TDs and 495 yards on 95 carries (5.21 YPC) with a 134-total yard average. With Arian Foster on a bye, Peterson is fantasy football's premier running back play for Week 11.
Score Prediction: Raiders 27, Vikings 20
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay
As noted in this space last week, the Bucs have been annihilated by the run without DT Gerald McCoy this season. The trend continued in Tampa's 37-9 home loss to Houston. In McCoy's three missed games so far, Bears, Saints, and Texans backs have torched the Buccaneers for 416 combined yards and six touchdowns on 72 carries (5.78 YPC). If James Starks is finally going to have a breakout game, there's a strong chance it will happen this week. Since the Packers' Week 8 bye, Starks has 30 touches compared to Ryan Grant's 13. Starks' yards-per-carry average is 4.96 during that span; Grant's 1.83. The Packers are destroying opponents at Lambeau, winning all four home games by at least eight points with an average score of 40-17. If this game plays out as it theoretically ought to, Starks should rack up carries in keep-the-lead mode. I like Starks as a solid flex play with upside in Week 11. ... In Green Bay's previous three games against the Cover-2 defenses of Minnesota (twice) and Chicago, Jermichael Finley scored four touchdowns and caught 12 passes for 165 yards. Finley's reception and yardage totals have been underwhelming this season, but he has a favorable matchup this week against the Bucs' Cover 2-style scheme.
Aaron Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes, yards per attempt, completion rate, and passer rating. In his last seven home games, Rodgers has accounted for 30 touchdowns -- an average of 4.3 per game. He's unstoppable. ... The Bucs rank 27th against the pass, 31st in sacks, and last in yards-per-pass attempt allowed. Whereas this is a nightmare matchup for Tampa, it's a dreamy one for Green Bay passing-game members. ... Jordy Nelson is averaging under six targets per game, but rare is the occasion that he's not open. He's on pace for over 1,125 yards and 12 scores. ... The Bucs have kept Aqib Talib at left corner only lately, with Ronde Barber at his usual RCB spot on early downs and guarding the slot in the nickel. Greg Jennings runs most of his routes at LWR and in the slot, so he's going to spend a lot of time in Barber's coverage. Appearing to fall off a cliff this season, the 36-year-old is Pro Football Focus' 103rd-rated cornerback in coverage, out of 105. ... James Jones entered last Monday night with just six targets in his last three games. He'd caught all six. Jones was targeted once against the Vikings, and caught it for a gain of nine. He has zero chance at fantasy reliability on this kind of usage.
After another clunker last week, LeGarrette Blount is averaging 9.5 touches for 48.5 yards with no touchdowns when the Bucs lose (four-game sample) this season. He's scored three TDs and is averaging 21 touches for 102 yards when Tampa wins (three games). Start Blount if you believe the Bucs can maintain a lead in this game. ... Since Week 3, Josh Freeman is 158-of-266 (59.4%) for 1,672 yards (6.29 YPA) with a 7:11 TD-to-INT ratio. They're bottom-barrel QB2 numbers. The Packers lead the NFL in interceptions, so this is a poor matchup for a turnover-prone quarterback. It is a good matchup for Green Bay's fantasy defense. ... Mike Williams was shut down by Johnathan Joseph last week and has not scored a touchdown since Week 1. He's cleared 60 yards once since the season's first month. Williams is a low-end WR3 option. ... Playing 43-of-63 snaps (68%) in Week 10, Arrelious Benn caught two balls for 47 yards. Dezmon Briscoe played 19 downs (30%) and didn't catch a pass after out-producing Benn in the Buccaneers' previous two games. Neither is a desirable fantasy wideout. ... Preston Parker is averaging 32 yards in his last five games. He has clearly overtaken Sammie Stroughter as Tampa Bay's full-time slot receiver, but is barely worth owning in fantasy leagues. ... Kellen Winslow is averaging a career-low 9.1 yards per reception and ranks 19th among tight ends in fantasy scoring. Aim higher in Week 11.
Score Prediction: Packers 38, Bucs 16
Carolina @ Detroit
The Panthers didn't make any lineup changes coming off their Week 9 bye. DeAngelo Williams continued to start despite Jonathan Stewart's superior performance and per-play production, and Brandon LaFell remains a part-time player behind Steve Smith and Legedu Naanee. Stewart has a favorable matchup against the Lions' No. 27 run defense, a unit yielding 4.94 yards per carry, but "Daily Show" will need a sudden and perhaps unforeseen increase in role to fulfill his fantasy potential. He's just a flex option. ... Williams is averaging 51 total yards per week with one touchdown on the season. It's hard to imagine using him at all, even against the NFL's poorest defenses. ... In Week 10 against Tennessee, LaFell managed one 18-yard catch on two targets. Seeing nine targets, Naanee caught eight balls for 75 yards, a significant chunk of which came in late-game garbage time of Carolina's 30-3 blowout loss. Naanee benefited both from the Titans' defensive strategy on Smith and lopsided score. You'd have to be convinced a similar scenario will play out in this game to give Naanee any Week 11 fantasy consideration. LaFell is a WR5.
Lions coordinator Gunther Cunningham runs an extremely aggressive, up-tempo defense that won't necessarily use the same bracketing tactics employed by Tennessee to stop Steve Smith. Only Packers-Bucs has a higher Week 11 over/under than Panthers-Lions, and Green Bay is a 14.5-point favorite. In other words, this is the best bet for a shootout among Sunday's games. As the NFC's leader in receiving yardage and league leader in 20-plus yard catches, Smith is set up nicely for a bounce-back effort. ... This game will be played beneath the Ford Field dome. Maybe it's a personal preference thing -- there's only debatable statistical evidence to back it up -- but I love using fantasy players indoors during the winter months. The Lions' No. 4 pass defense poses a tough matchup for Cam Newton on paper, but Newton has solidified himself as an every-week starter by ranking third among quarterbacks in fantasy points through nine weeks. Shake off last Sunday's clunker and confidently play Newton as a top-five quarterback in a potentially high-scoring affair.
After watching, then re-watching Detroit's Week 10 loss to Chicago, I tend to agree that Matthew Stafford's four-interception game was more attributable to high winds and poor decision making than his broken right (throwing) index finger. Seven dropped passes certainly didn't help, and as a Chicagoan I can attest that Sunday's winds were swirling with gusts in the 30-45 MPH range. Stafford now returns to the friendly confines of Ford Field, where he's collected a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 247-yard average in four games this season. The Panthers do rank a solid-looking 14th in pass defense, but that's in large part due to the fact that they've faced the third fewest pass attempts football. Detroit's offense is second in pass attempts, so tendencies suggest the Lions will keep on airing it out. Stafford may not be a top-five quarterback play this week, but he's definitely in the top ten. ... Calvin Johnson figures to draw Chris Gamble for most of this game, three weeks after abusing Champ Bailey for a 6-125-1 line. With at least 81 yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-9 games this season, Megatron has proven matchup-proof and is the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver.
Titus Young (7-74), Nate Burleson (8-83), and Tony Scheffler's (3-37-1) Week 10 stats were all inflated by Stafford's franchise record-setting 63 pass attempts at Soldier Field. While it's not crazy to believe one of the trio will have a big week in this potential shootout, nothing has changed in terms of their usage and lack of fantasy reliability. Young, Burleson, and Scheffler's temporarily increased roles did affect Brandon Pettigrew (5-38), with an emphasis on temporarily. Keep in mind that the Panthers have been particularly generous to tight ends, allowing opponents at the position to rack up an average of five receptions for 73 yards per week. My money would be on Pettigrew ranking second on the Lions in receiving in this game, much as he has all season. ... Newly re-signed Kevin Smith leapfrogged Keiland Williams for the Lions' No. 2 backfield spot last week, playing 28 snaps compared to Williams' six. Starter Maurice Morris was in for 44 plays, also leading the way with 11 touches. The Panthers rank 27th against the run and have allowed an NFL-high 12 rushing touchdowns, so this is as good a week as any to use Morris in a flex spot. Smith is worth monitoring in fantasy leagues. Williams can be safely sent back to waiver wires.
Score Prediction: Lions 30, Panthers 24
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Buffalo @ Miami
Predictably crashing back to earth after his short-lived hot start, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the No. 20 fantasy quarterback over the past five weeks. In his last six games, Fitz has a 7:9 TD-to-INT ratio while being held under 200 yards four times. This matchup is favorable on paper against Miami's No. 25 pass defense, but the Dolphins' secondary is much tougher with top CB Vontae Davis back in the lineup. Fitzpatrick simply isn't playing well for QB1 usage, settling in as a two-quarterback league option only. ... Also working against Fitzpatrick is No. 1 receiver Stevie Johnson's shoulder injury. Johnson is tentatively expected to play, but may not be 100% healthy. It's worth recalling that, like Fitzpatrick, Johnson's numbers fell off a cliff down the stretch last season. After averaging six catches for 81 yards with nine touchdowns in Fitzpatrick's initial nine starts, Johnson dwindled to an average line of 5-55 with one score in the final five. Particularly with Bills offensive linemen dropping like flies, I wouldn't hold out hope for a resurgence from Buffalo's passing game.
David Nelson and Donald Jones could experience expanded roles if Johnson is limited against Miami. While neither is a reliable, high-upside fantasy contributor, they'd both be solid bets to lead the Bills in Week 11 targets. Nelson is the No. 33 overall fantasy receiver and has been a more consistent presence in Buffalo's offense than Jones. ... The Dolphins haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 7, and Denver's Daniel Fells is the only tight end who's scored on Miami since Week 2. This bodes poorly for Scott Chandler, who needs TDs to matter in any given week. ... The Fins are defending the run well lately, but Fred Jackson has confirmed himself matchup-proof. In three previous games against top-11 run defenses this season, Jackson has two touchdowns and 254 rushing yards on 42 carries (6.05 YPC), averaging 125 total yards a game.
The Week 10 box score may indicate that the Dolphins' backfield has resumed committee status with Daniel Thomas seeing 17 carries and Reggie Bush 14 (plus four catches). Thomas, however, received six of his rushing attempts in fourth-quarter clock-killing mode, after a Bush touchdown run put Miami ahead for good, 20-9. Bush got the backfield's first five touches of the game. The Dolphins may get Thomas more and more involved as the season winds down, but there's little doubt that Bush is currently the lead back when games are in doubt. Over the last three weeks, Bush has averaged 18 touches for 105 total yards with three touchdowns. Thomas is averaging a pathetic 2.66 yards per carry since Week 3. Bush is the Fins' lone fantasy-relevant running back at the moment, and he's worth a long look as an RB2/flex against Buffalo's 23rd-ranked run defense.
In four career matchups with Buffalo, Brandon Marshall has racked up 340 yards and two scores on 34 receptions, good for an 8.5-catch, 85-yard average. With Matt Moore turning in back-to-back solid games, Marshall is teetering on WR1 status. He's also lapping the field in targets among Miami pass catchers with Moore under center: Marshall has 55 and Davone Bess is next closest with 33. In other words, when Moore drops back to throw, there's about a 35% chance he's going to Marshall. It's no surprise, then, that Marshall leads the league in "target rate." ... Here is the rest of Moore's target distribution: Bush 18, Brian Hartline 17, Anthony Fasano 15, Charles Clay 10. Beyond Marshall, there's nary a Fins pass catcher worth rostering in fantasy leagues, let alone starting. ... Moore has historically been incapable of sustained success, but he's now completing 63% of his passes, and that's all Marshall owners can ask. Two-quarterback leaguers could do worse than Moore against Buffalo, though. The Bills rank 27th versus the pass.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 21, Bills 17
4:05PM ET Games
Seattle @ St. Louis
Marshawn Lynch leads the NFL in touches over the past two weeks, and this matchup is right for another heavy, productive workload. As explained in the Browns-Jags breakdown, the St. Louis front seven allows massive holes through which even the league's worst running backs can glide unscathed. Lynch is worth flex consideration because of his Week 11 opponent; just don't count on long-term success. The Seahawks lost the entire right side of their line (RG John Moffitt, RT James Carpenter) to year-ending knee injuries this week, and continuity is pivotal for OL coach Tom Cable's zone-blocking scheme. ... Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin were both concussed in Week 10, but have been medically cleared to play. With Al Harris (knee) the latest to land on I.R., St. Louis has lost four of its top five cornerbacks since August. Set to square off with Rams LCB Justin King -- Pro Football Focus' 105th-rated corner out of 105 -- Rice is a WR2 in this matchup. ... Baldwin remains the second best bet on Seattle's roster for receiving stats, but he's hard to trust with a 38.5-yard average and no TDs since the Week 6 bye. ... Ben Obomanu and Big Mike Williams aren't worth fantasy roster spots. ... Tarvaris Jackson may be most adversely affected by Carpenter and Moffitt's losses. Their replacements will be Paul McQuistan and severe protection liability Breno Giacomini. Rams sack leader Chris Long will square off with Giacomini.
Here is Sam Bradford's target distribution since returning from his high ankle sprain two games ago: Brandon Lloyd 22, Austin Pettis 9, Greg Salas 9, Brandon Gibson 8, Steven Jackson 5. ... Bradford targeted Lloyd a team-high nine times last week despite Browns lockdown CB Joe Haden's shadow coverage. The Rams are forcing Lloyd the rock, and he will go from facing one of the NFL's top corners to one of the worst in Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner. I'd think of Lloyd as a legit top-five fantasy receiver in Week 11. ... Mark Clayton was not targeted in his 2011 debut last week, playing 10-of-63 snaps. He won't be a fantasy option until his role grows. ... Danario Alexander (hamstring), Gibson (groin), and Lance Kendricks (foot) have all been banged up and unproductive lately. Behind Lloyd, Pettis is the only Rams pass catcher worth a look in fantasy leagues. It's worth noting that the middle of Seattle's defense was open for much of last week's matchup with Baltimore, as Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta combined for 21 targets, 14 receptions, 128 yards, and two touchdowns. As a slot receiver, Pettis runs virtually all of his routes over the middle. ... It's well known by now that Seattle has a run-tough defense, but it's also fair to wonder if they're springing some leaks. Over the past two games, Ravens and Cowboys rushers have tagged the Seahawks for 238 yards on 41 carries (5.80 YPC). S-Jax is playing too well to bench.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 17
Arizona @ San Francisco
Three weeks ago, it was reasonable to worry that John Skelton's inaccuracy would negatively impact Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy stats. Time has calmed those concerns, and Fitzgerald is now coming off his most high-scoring effort since the Kurt Warner era. Whereas Fitz managed an average of under five catches for 86 yards with two touchdowns in Kevin Kolb's seven starts earlier this season, the All-Pro wideout is averaging 6.3 catches for 89.5 yards with four TDs in Skelton's six career starts. Skelton is 2-0 so far and figures to continue to start over Kolb until he loses. ... Touched up for 311 yards, two touchdowns, and a 65.0 completion rate by Eli Manning last week, the secondary has been San Francisco's defensive weakness. Skelton isn't a realistic standard-league fantasy option, but he is aggressive with a big enough arm to be worth a look in two-QB leagues. ... Slot receiver Early Doucet will get the Carlos Rogers treatment on the heavy majority of his Week 11 snaps. Doucet plays more when Arizona falls behind, but ultimately both he and Andre Roberts offer little upside. ... Having failed to average 4.0 YPC in every game since Week 4, Beanie Wells is a flex option only against San Francisco's top-ranked run defense. He'd need to be healthier and playing far better in order to be a confident fantasy play in this matchup.
A matchup with Arizona's 24th-ranked pass defense might look good for Alex Smith on paper, but he simply lacks talent and passing volume to enter the QB1 realm. Weak armed and ineffective as realized by his own coach, Smith ranks 24th in pass attempts, 23rd in yards, and is tied for 18th in passing touchdowns. He's strictly a game manager, and that's never going to lead to top-15 quarterback stats. ... Vernon Davis is prone to getting stuck on the line blocking when the 49ers face elite pass rushers, but the Cardinals haven't got one. He'll give SS Adrian Wilson fits down the seam. ... Michael Crabtree's yardage numbers have dropped in four straight weeks, and he's scored once all year. While this is a favorable matchup in theory, Crabtree has proven unreliable even as a WR3 since Braylon Edwards returned from knee surgery. ... The last time we were worried about Frank Gore's (knee) availability for a game, the 49ers announced Kendall Hunter as their Week 4 starter. Gore promptly came "off the bench" to pound Philadelphia for 127 yards and a touchdown on 15 rushing attempts, also catching two passes for 12 yards. Hunter totaled 100 scoreless yards on 11 touches. In my view, the lesson learned is to always bet on Gore as opposed to against him. Hunter would be a low-end flex option with Gore fully expected to start.
Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Cardinals 17
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4:15PM ET Games
Tennessee @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan didn't play nearly as well in Week 10 as his 351 yards and two touchdowns suggest, and he'll now square off with a Titans secondary that thoroughly shut down Cam Newton and Steve Smith last Sunday. Ryan was 10-of-18 for 122 yards and no scores at halftime, before no-huddle, hurry-up mode translated to 34 second-half pass attempts. While Tennessee's defense has seemed up and down this season, the play of the pass defense has been consistently good, particularly at cornerback. As he's been all year, Ryan is just a borderline starter. He's the No. 11 overall fantasy quarterback. ... In four home games, Michael Turner has five touchdowns and is averaging 21.5 carries for over 101 yards. Tennessee plays the pass far better than the run, ranking 22nd in rush defense and surrendering nearly 4.4 yards a carry. Be sure to sell Turner high immediately after this game. His next two matchups are against Houston and Minnesota's top-six run defenses, and if this season ends anything like the last, Turner will be out of gas by the fantasy playoffs.
Julio Jones has battled pulls to both of his hamstrings this season, and the Falcons' actions this week indicate they plan to hold him out against Tennessee. Jones hasn't participated in a single practice. Said coach Mike Smith, "We have to make sure we make the right decision for putting a player back out on the field for a short-term goal and hurt us for a long-term goal." Harry Douglas racked up 133 yards on eight Week 10 catches, though he had just one reception at halftime, before Ryan's pass attempts spiked in the final two quarters. Douglas plays often in the slot, so he figures to match up frequently with Cortland Finnegan on passing downs. Finnegan is playing at a borderline All-Pro level. ... Roddy White has the best matchup among Falcons receivers. White plays the majority of his snaps at flanker and will face LCB Jason McCourty for much of Sunday. McCourty has been solid, but overall is still the Titans' weakest corner in coverage. ... Whereas Tennessee's defense gets consistently effective cornerback play, the safeties are often exposed. It shows up statistically in opposing tight ends' production. Over the last six games, the Titans have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends and 35 catches for 472 yards. It's a weekly average of 79 yards on just under six receptions, and bodes well for Gonzalez’s Week 11 matchup.
I re-watched Titans-Panthers in hopes of seeing increased explosiveness from Chris Johnson in his season-best fantasy game (27-130-1, 4-44). I came away disappointed. While Johnson ran hard after contact on a few occasions, ultimately his speed and quickness are ordinary, and his effort remains inconsistent snap to snap. Johnson benefited from the widest lanes he's witnessed all year against Carolina's No. 28 run defense, in addition to clock-killing, blowout mode after the Titans surged to a 17-0 halftime lead. Now facing a Falcons defense that ranks third against the run and hasn't allowed a rushing score since Week 6, don't be surprised if Johnson goes back in the tank on Sunday. Consider him a risky, low-end RB2/flex. ... Here is Matt Hasselbeck's target distribution over the past three games: Damian Williams 19, Johnson 18, Nate Washington 16, Lavelle Hawkins and Jared Cook 13, Javon Ringer 11. ... It's fair to wonder if Williams has passed Washington as Tennessee's No. 1 receiver. In addition to the edge in targets, Williams has more yards than Washington in each of the last three weeks. He's also got a more favorable Week 11 matchup. Williams will spend most of this game in burnable RCB Dunta Robinson's coverage, while Washington deals with LCB Brent Grimes. ... Whereas Atlanta ranks third against the run, the Falcons' pass defense is a vulnerable 23rd. Hasselbeck is a respectable two-QB league play.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Titans 17
San Diego @ Chicago
The Bears' in-season offensive transformation is commonly discussed, but their sudden defensive dominance has played the biggest role during a four-game win streak. In the last month, Chicago has limited quarterbacks to 111-of-194 passing (57.2%) for 1,082 yards (5.58 YPA), three passing scores, and nine interceptions. And it isn't as if the Bears are playing chump opponents. They've faced Matthew Stafford, a healthy Michael Vick, and Josh Freeman consecutively, and that trio has accounted for all nine picks. Particularly with the elements threatening to be an issue at Soldier Field, this will be a daunting matchup for NFL interceptions leader Philip Rivers. Rivers is playing terribly, and won't have LT Marcus McNeill (neck) to guard against Julius Peppers. If you've seen replacement left tackle Brandyn Dombrowski play this season or last, you'll know Rivers is best left on Week 11 fantasy benches. ... This is obviously a concern for Vincent Jackson, who is worth starting only because he's a freakish talent with legit week-winning fantasy upside. ... Vincent Brown will make another start in place of Malcom Floyd, who has bypassed Chaz Schilens as the most brittle wide receiver in football this season. Brown is gaining Rivers' trust, graduating from comeback-mode option in Week 9 to the Chargers' target leader in Week 10. He's a viable WR3.
While the Bears' pass defense has been a shutdown force, Chicago is permitting the third highest yards-per-carry average (5.11) in the league. With Rivers struggling, San Diego's best game-plan approach would be to attack the Bears with the run. Ryan Mathews' legs should be as fresh as they've been all season after receiving a year-low six carries in Week 10, followed by a ten-day layoff after a Thursday night game. The Chargers' offense has functioned at optimal levels only when Mathews has gotten the football 20-plus times per game. San Diego is 3-0 when Mathews gets at least 21 touches, compared to 1-4 when he doesn’t clear that benchmark. ... Mike Tolbert has been a third-down and goal-line back only with Mathews at 100%. Tolbert should receive 8-12 touches against the Bears, but will probably need a short touchdown plunge to be a worthwhile fantasy start. He's a low-end flex play. ... Since returning from his foot injury after the Chargers' Week 6 bye, Antonio Gates is averaging 5.5 receptions for nearly 70 yards per week with two touchdowns in four games. The Bears have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any defense in the league.
Over the Chargers' last five games, Michael Bush, Jackie Battle, Shonn Greene, James Starks, and Willis McGahee have lit them up for a combined for 530 yards on 98 carries (5.41 YPC). It's one of the most favorable matchups Matt Forte will get all season. ... Jay Cutler's impact has been minimized with Forte and the Bears' defense playing lights out football. Cutler hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games, and coach Lovie Smith would probably like to keep it that way. Cutler is only a two-QB league option. ... With passing attempts and overall efficiency way down in Chicago, Earl Bennett has been the Bears’ sole productive fantasy receiver. The slot man has caught all 11 of his targets for 176 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. Bennett will likely never evolve into a non-PPR difference-maker, but he's a respectable WR3 in PPR. ... Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams haven't been getting enough targets or receptions in the Bears' revised offense for any hint of fantasy confidence. None of them is even worth owning.
Score Prediction: Bears 21, Chargers 20
Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Vince Young has not been a top-25 quarterback in fantasy points per game since his rookie year in 2006, and I'd be hard pressed to consider him better than a top-20 QB play in Week 11. While Young's supporting cast would appear to be the best he's ever played with, fantasy owners should note that Jeremy Maclin (shoulder) won't play, and DeSean Jackson has struggled to beat two-deep safety coverage all season. Not helping matters is the fact that the Giants generate more pressure than any team in football, leading the NFL in sacks despite nine combined missed games from Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. I still believe Young is better than 7-10 current starting quarterbacks around the league, and that the Redskins should have signed him to start over Rex Grossman and John Beck. But I wouldn't use him in a fantasy league this week. ... My pick to lead Eagles in catches Sunday is Brent Celek. Young loves to check it down to tight ends, dating back to David Thomas at the University of Texas and Bo Scaife during their time in Nashville. Celek also leads Philly in targets over the past four games (34).
The Eagles' skill player likely to be least affected by the insertion of V.Y. is LeSean McCoy. As he did with Vick under center, McCoy will benefit from Young's run threat, which keeps linebackers on their heels and lanes open up the middle. While coach Andy Reid's offensive philosophy has long been pass heavy, it's also quite possible that he'll install a run-first approach for this particular game. It will be Young's first career start in a West Coast system, and there's little doubt that leaning heavily on McCoy would be Philadelphia's best option. ... Without a touchdown or a game over 46 yards since Week 5, Jackson needs to be considered strictly a WR3 until he picks it up. While it's difficult to put D-Jax's big-play ability on the bench in fantasy leagues, he just hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt with his recent performance. ... Riley Cooper, a 6-foot-3, 224-pound red-zone specialist, will get the start for Maclin at split end. Cooper has flashed field-stretching ability in exhibition games, but has just seven catches through two NFL seasons. ... Jason Avant will return to his slot receiver duties with Steve Smith seeing scant playing time against the G-Men. Cooper, despite limited pro experience, would be a higher-upside fantasy bet than both.
Practicing fully again after a lingering hamstring injury, Hakeem Nicks is off the injury report and has resumed full-time receiver duties. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Nicks as the fourth-best fantasy wide receiver for Week 11. ... Eli Manning lit up this same Eagles defense for 254 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3. Through the season’s initial two and a half months, Manning is the No. 6 fantasy quarterback and an every-week starter. ... Mario Manningham missed the aforementioned Eagles-Giants game with a concussion, leading to a monster (3-110-2) day for Victor Cruz. Mario has been near or at 100% over the last three weeks, finding pay dirt in three straight games. He will be a recommended WR3 going forward. ... Behind Nicks, here is the Giants' target distribution during that three-week span: Cruz 31, Manningham 26, Jake Ballard 18.
I've had a difficult time coming to terms with the fact that Cruz can be a consistent fantasy scorer as the No. 3 receiver behind two marquee talents. But his production speaks for itself, and the Giants' passing game is playing at an efficient enough level for Cruz to stay consistent. He plays in all passing formations and has at least 84 yards in six of his last seven games. The Eagles' Achilles' heel in pass defense has been the slot, where Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is out with a high ankle sprain. Cruz is the Giants' slot receiver. ... Ballard has cooled off since a hot run during Weeks 4-6, averaging four catches for 52 yards in his last three games. He's a fantasy backup with byes ending in Week 12. ... Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) will miss one more week, setting up Brandon Jacobs for another feature back workload. Jacobs has 42 touches over the last two weeks, and the Eagles' undersized front seven doesn't match up well with his bulldozing, downhill running style. The Giants should successfully keep the chains moving in this game, setting up Jacobs for red-zone carries. He'll be a good bet for at least 80 yards and a touchdown or two.
Score Prediction: Giants 28, Eagles 17
Monday Night Football
Kansas City @ New England
Coming off a 37-16 throttling of the division-rival Jets, New England is poised for a red-hot finish. Only one of their remaining seven opponents has a winning record -- the reeling Bills, in Week 17 -- and combined they are 21-43 (.328). At the forefront is sure to be Tom Brady, and last week's three-touchdown, 329-yard performance reconfirmed Tom Terrific as matchup-proof. Kansas City ranks dead last in sacks and has allowed the third most 20-plus yard pass plays in football. Brady is a lead-pipe lock for a big Monday night. ... After a two-game lull in Weeks 4-5, Rob Gronkowski is on an absolute tear. He's caught at least seven passes in four straight games, averaging 95.5 yards with three TDs during that span while once again pushing Jimmy Graham for top billing among fantasy tight ends. K.C. might have the league's weakest safety duo in Jon McGraw and Kendrick Lewis, so there should be enough openings for both of New England's tight ends to exploit. ... Here is Brady's target distribution since the Patriots' Week 7 bye: Gronk 35, Wes Welker 26, Deion Branch 21, Aaron Hernandez 14, Chad Ochocinco 8. ... The Pats have tried to give Ochocinco opportunities at Branch's expense, but Ocho has failed to capitalize. Branch is never a good bet for high receiving yardage totals, but has four touchdowns in his last six games.
Welker leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and has at least six catches in all but one game this season. The Chiefs "play sides" in coverage, always leaving Brandon Flowers at left corner with Brandon Carr on the right and Javier Arenas inside. Welker will square off with Arenas for the majority of this game. ... The Patriots' backfield has been maddening from a playing time and touches standpoint since Kevin Faulk came off PUP in Week 8. Faulk, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley are barely worth owning in fantasy leagues, but this game has the potential to set up well for BenJarvus Green-Ellis. New England should whip the Tyler Palko-led Chiefs from start to finish, and Green-Ellis' role always increases in "keep-the-lead" mode. Shake off Law Firm's slow four-game stretch and use him as an RB2/flex against the Chiefs' No. 26 run defense.
Matt Cassel's hand surgery leaves the Chiefs with little hope on offense. Essentially a poor man's Bruce Gradkowski, Palko will be Kansas City's starting quarterback until Todd Haley inevitably benches him for rookie Ricky Stanzi. In 2007, Palko went undrafted out of Pittsburgh due to severe talent limitations, standing just 6-foot-1, running a 4.83 forty, and possessing an incredibly weak arm. He was a noodle-armed scrambler in college. Palko is also left-handed, meaning protection liability Barry Richardson will be on his blind side. Through nine games, Pro Football Focus has graded Richardson 70th out of 74 tackles in pass blocking. In five career preseasons, Palko has completed 133-of-243 passes (54.7%) for 1,423 yards (5.86 YPA), five touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He has also fumbled 10 times, losing four. Fire up the Patriots’ fantasy defense.
Kansas City's backfield also needs to be avoided. Jackie Battle receives substantial workloads only when the Chiefs are out in front, and his carry totals have dropped in three straight weeks. The Patriots figure to control this game, limiting Battle's playing time. ... It is perhaps conceivable that Palko could check down to Dexter McCluster relentlessly with a weak arm and what projects as awful pass protection. It's just not a bankable fantasy situation. ... Dwayne Bowe is still worth WR3 consideration because New England was playing the pass so poorly even before top CB Devin McCourty separated his right shoulder. ... Passing-game efficiency is a lock to dwindle in Kansas City, however, leaving very little appeal for secondary targets Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin. Even in the most favorable matchups, Palko will have trouble clearing 200 passing yards.
Score Prediction: Patriots 45, Chiefs 3
