Matchups: Dez's Destiny
1:00PM ET Games
Buffalo @ Dallas
Miles Austin will miss 2-4 games with a right hamstring strain, the leg opposite the hamstring that cost him practice time in August and three weeks earlier this season. Dez Bryant stands to benefit as Dallas' clear No. 1 receiver during an upcoming string of favorable matchups. Three of the Cowboys' next four opponents rank in the bottom eight against the pass, beginning with the No. 25 Bills in Week 10. Bryant leads Dallas in targets over the past month, and Tony Romo has re-found his stroke after an early-year rib injury, no longer needing painkillers to play on Sundays. Perhaps fantasy football's finest second-half trade target, Bryant is headed for a breakout finish. ... Bryant was battling a quad injury at the time, but it's worth noting that Jason Witten led Dallas in receiving (14-154-1) and targets (19) when Austin missed Weeks 3-4. Austin, by nature, is a possession receiver, and Witten is now Dallas' best possession threat left. In their last six games, the Bills have surrendered 33 receptions for 449 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends, good for nearly a six-catch, 75-yard weekly average. Bryant is the best bet to lead the Cowboys in receiving yards this Sunday, but Witten is the favorite for receptions. They're both must-starts.
Chris Wesseling recommended Laurent Robinson as this week's top waiver pickup at receiver. Robinson will be an every-down player in Austin's absence, primarily playing outside at flanker. Though he barely knew Dallas' offense at the time after signing on September 20, Robinson racked up 15 targets in Austin's two missed games earlier in the year. Since, Robinson has become a staple in the Cowboys' receiver rotation with touchdowns in back-to-back games and over 100 yards in two of the last five. Robinson will be a worthwhile WR3 until Austin gets back. ... Now past the rib injury, Romo displayed improved pocket presence in Week 9 against Seattle, particularly in the final two quarters. He connected with Witten on a pair of deep seam routes for long gains, the first for a 33-yard touchdown and the second for 23 on a third-and-six play. Like Bryant, Romo has an incredibly favorable schedule for the next month. He's going to get hot. ... DeMarco Murray is earning more trust from the Cowboys every week. Generating Jerry Jones' comparisons to Eric Dickerson, Murray is now averaging 170 total yards and 8.47 YPC in three starts. He's also playing more on passing downs. Felix Jones (ankle) won't return as better than a change-of-pace/third-down back, and it won't be this week. The Bills rank 20th against the run, permit 4.62 yards per carry, and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the AFC.
I'm taking the over on Vegas' projected 48 points for Buffalo-Dallas. The Cowboys will again be minus top CB Mike Jenkins (hamstring), and Ryan Fitzpatrick's quick release will pose matchup problems for a defense that relies heavily on sack production. Fitzpatrick has taken just eight sacks, 33rd most in the league. This isn't to call Fitz a fantasy starter, but I'd feel good about him in two-QB settings and his pass catchers' chances of recording adequate stat lines in a sleeper shootout game. ... Donald Jones' return from an ankle injury is positive news for David Nelson, because it moves him back into the slot. Nelson led all Bills receivers in Week 9 targets and has 50 on the year to rank second on the team. Nelson offers limited week-to-week upside because he's not a featured player in a spread-the-wealth offense, but he'll continue to be on the WR3 radar. Look for Nelson (6'5/220) to match up often with Orlando Scandrick (5'10/191) on Sunday. ... Fitzpatrick's weak arm won't be deterred in the comfortable confines of JerryWorld Stadium, which figures to be enclosed for this game. It's good news for Stevie Johnson, who beat Darrelle Revis for 84 yards last week and has a much friendlier Week 10 matchup with Terence Newman.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jones played 58-of-59 snaps in Week 10, confirming that he's over his high ankle sprain. Jones was targeted just four times, however, securing one for six yards. Jones may have a couple of decent games down the stretch, but they'll be impossible to predict. He's prone to getting stuck running clear-out routes ala Lee Evans in Chan Gailey's offense last season. ... Dallas opened the year playing run-tough defense, but has sprung leaks of late. Seahawks and Eagles rushers have touched up the Cowboys for 401 yards and three scores on 68 carries (5.90 YPC) over the last two games. Perhaps ILB Sean Lee's return will help, but he's playing with a cracked, dislocated wrist. No. 2 fantasy back Fred Jackson should be used confidently. ... You know the drill with Scott Chandler by now. He's scored a TD in four games this season. In the other four, Chandler has seven catches combined for 33 yards. Good luck. ... C.J. Spiller has lost his part-time slot receiver job with Jones back, and Spiller's lone two Week 9 touches came when Jackson was nursing a short-lived "stinger" at the start of the second half. Spiller played 5-of-59 snaps (8.5%) and has no fantasy appeal without an F-Jax injury. ... Naaman Roosevelt can also be returned to waiver wires as the No. 5 or 6 option in Buffalo's passing game.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Bills 24
Tennessee @ Carolina
The Panthers appeared to turn away from DeAngelo Williams and toward Jonathan Stewart before their Week 9 bye, giving J-Stew 27 carries in Weeks 7-8 compared to 17 for D-Will. The off week should have kept the coaches' lean in Stewart's direction, because the per-play stats and game tape are heavily in his favor. Stewart also now has nine red-zone touches to Williams' three since Week 5. If I had to pick one running back to target for pre-fantasy deadline trades, it would be Jonathan Stewart. He's going to lead this backfield in carries and catches, and the Panthers face just two defenses ranked higher than 24th against the run in their final eight games. The Titans are No. 24. ... Having failed to top 3.7 YPC in three straight games, Williams has reached "handcuff" status in fantasy leagues. He's simply not usable with one touchdown on the season and an average of 53 total yards a week. ... In their last five games, the Titans have allowed 30 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends. It's weekly average of 6-72-1. Greg Olsen is a top-nine tight end in fantasy points per game, and this is a favorable matchup.
Throw out a Week 8 date with Curtis Painter, and Tennessee has allowed opposing QBs to complete 64-of-96 passes (66.7%) for 741 yards (7.72 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and one interception in their last three games. This is a favorable matchup for both Cam Newton and Steve Smith, who are locked in as every-week fantasy starters. ... Brandon LaFell is worth picking up in 14- and 16-team leagues in hopes that the Carolina coaching staff increased his role during the bye. He's been an inconsistently-used part-time receiver to this point, but has significantly more playmaking ability than "starter" Legedu Naanee. LaFell is averaging 16.2 yards per reception with two touchdowns on the season, compared to no scores and a 10.9 average for Naanee. Per Pro Football Focus, LaFell has not dropped a pass since Week 1, while Naanee has two drops in the last five games. Neither is a Week 10 fantasy option, of course, but LaFell at least has potential.
I re-watched all 14 of Chris Johnson's Week 9 runs, and I still think his struggles are a matter of effort. Johnson has no interest in grinding out tough yardage inside the tackles, and was a total non-factor in the final two quarters with nine yards on five second-half rushing attempts. Earlier in the season, I surmised that Johnson's explosion was gone. I'm now convinced that his heart isn't in it. Perhaps a date with Carolina's No. 27 run defense will provide Johnson more lanes and long-run chances, but I still wouldn't feel comfortable considering him more than a flex option. Be it consciously or subconsciously, Johnson has thrown in the towel. ... Javon Ringer has a limited skill level, struggling to make defenders miss and almost never breaking into the open field. He hits the hole with considerably more ferocity than Johnson, but received only five Week 9 touches and is averaging 3.41 yards per carry on the season. Ringer is an RB4. ... Jared Cook missed practices with a knee injury this week, which won't help his chances of playing more on Sunday. In Week 9, he played 33-of-69 offensive downs (47.8%) and lost a fumble to seal the Titans' loss.
There's not much reason for optimism in the Titans' passing game. Nate Washington figures to match up often with Panthers top CB Chris Gamble, who's been a legit shutdown cornerback this season. Washington is also coming off a hip injury. Look elsewhere. ... Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins have traded off weeks leading Tennessee in receiving. Of course, neither has more than 63 yards in either game. Both offer little upside, though Williams remains the slightly better fantasy bet. ... Matt Hasselbeck is the No. 26 fantasy quarterback in points per game over the last five weeks (The post-Britt era). He's a QB2 against Carolina's 13th-ranked pass defense.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Titans 21
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Saints-Falcons has Sunday's highest over/under with 50 projected points in a pick-'em game. Shy not from this one. ... Both Atlanta wideouts should be locked into fantasy lineups, but it's worth wondering if Julio Jones might overtake Roddy White to be Matt Ryan's preferred option down the stretch. In Jones' last three full games played, he leads Atlanta in receptions (20) and yards (373), and is coming off a 164-total yard, two-score destruction of Indianapolis. White still comfortably paces the Falcons in targets, but has exhibited decreased explosiveness en route to a career-low 11.7 yards per catch. Jones is riding a 17.5-yard clip. ... White has been held to an average of 3.3 receptions for 51 yards in his last three meetings with New Orleans. As the Falcons' flanker, he has a tougher Week 10 matchup than Jones. White will spend the majority of this game in LCB Jabari Greer's coverage. Jones will face off with a combination of RCB Patrick Robinson and slot CB Leigh Torrence with Tracy Porter (neck, chest) out for Sunday's game. ... Red-zone scores can keep Tony Gonzalez's fantasy value afloat, but he's slowing down with a 43.5-yard average since Week 2. Gonzalez ranks 16th among tight ends in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks.
In his last three games against the Saints, Matt Ryan has completed 53-of-101 passes (52.5%) for 665 yards (6.58 YPA), four touchdowns, and three interceptions. A shootout may buoy Ryan's Week 10 numbers, but that's two-QB league production. ... While Michael Turner will have a hard time running strong for the season's duration with so much wear on his tires, he has a favorable matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing the league's highest yards-per-carry average (5.33). Long term, keep in mind that Turner has led the NFL in rushing attempts in two of the past three seasons, ranks fifth in carries per game this year, and turns 30 in three months. His legs petered out late in 2010, averaging 3.42 YPC in the final four games despite facing a string of weak run defenses. A year older now, Turner's demise could happen sooner. Owners should start shopping him around before fantasy trade deadlines. ... Jacquizz Rodgers received a season-high 11 touches in Week 9, but seven came after Atlanta had already built a 28-7 fourth-quarter lead in a blowout win over the 0-9 Colts. It's almost certainly not a sign of things to come. Rodgers isn't a recommended late-year stash because he'd share time with Jason Snelling if Turner went down.
The Saints attacked the Bucs with a smash-mouth approach in Week 9, only using three-receiver sets on 27-of-64 snaps (42.2%) and finishing with a 28:36 run-to-pass ratio. It was obviously out of character for a team that leads the NFL in pass attempts, and game planned specifically for a Tampa defense that can't stop the run. I would therefore struggle to hold Marques Colston (5-52) and Drew Brees' (258 yards, two touchdowns) relatively mediocre stats against them. Whereas the Bucs' weakness was run stoppage, the opposite can be said for the Falcons' defense. Atlanta ranks seventh against the run, compared to 19th against the pass. ... Brees has averaged 40 pass attempts per game in his last four matchups with the Falcons, completing 121-of-160 throws (75.6%) for 1,271 yards (7.94 YPA), and nine touchdowns. In terms of yardage, it's a per-game average of 318. ... Brees' updated target distribution since Colston returned from his Week 1 collarbone fracture to become a full-time receiver in Week 6: Jimmy Graham 34, Darren Sproles 30, Colston 29, Lance Moore 19, Devery Henderson 11, Robert Meachem 8. ... Henderson and Meachem have become almost total non-factors and can safely be sent to fantasy waiver wires.
On pace for 11 all-purpose touchdowns and 1,410 total yards, Sproles has settled in as an every-week flex regardless of format. He's a perfect fit for this offense. ... Jimmy Graham leads all tight ends in targets (82), receptions (55), yards (791), and standard league fantasy points. Matchups don't matter anymore. ... Moore has a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, but his targets and snaps are too inconsistent for comfort. He's a dicey WR3/flex. ... As for the Saints' running backs behind Sproles, it's ideally a fantasy situation to avoid because of the role uncertainty and tough matchup. They aren’t playing the Bucs anymore. Pierre Thomas is at least healthy. Mark Ingram (heel) and Chris Ivory (hamstring) were both limited in practice all week and are questionable to play against Atlanta.
UPDATE: Ingram is listed as probable and Ivory questionable. In his first game back after a two-week heel (Achilles?) injury, Ingram would be a very shaky fantasy play in a tough matchup. Ivory is not expected to be active for the game.
Score Prediction: Saints 31, Falcons 23
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Houston @ Tampa Bay
Ben Tate has over 100 yards in two of Houston's last three games, both coming in blowout wins over Tennessee (41-7) and Cleveland (30-12). In each case, the Texans jumped out to a two-score lead and were able to rack up rushing attempts with their backup tailback. Only four of Tate's 12 carries occurred in the first half last week, though he took them for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. As to whether Tate will stay in the rotation when games are still in doubt, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said Wednesday that it'll be determined based on in-game "feel." Added Gary Kubiak after last week's win, "It's fun to watch right now. It's almost like a competition because they just go back and forth." This still creates a difficult situation for fantasy leaguers, because in all likelihood Tate won't get the ball much unless Houston is spanking its opponent -- an unpredictable scenario. For owners dying to use Tate, this matchup should be as good as any. The Bucs rank 26th against the run and have lost DT Gerald McCoy for the season to a torn bicep. In McCoy's previous two missed games this season, Tampa Bay was dismantled by Saints and Bears running backs for 233 yards and three touchdowns on 31 rushing attempts (7.52 YPC). Arian Foster will obviously burn this defense, and it's conceivable that Tate will, too.
Kubiak is calling Andre Johnson (hamstring) a "weekend decision," but he isn't going to play until after the Week 11 bye. ... Owen Daniels' production has been in the gutter because Houston is destroying defenses with the run. In their last three games -- all wins by two scores or more -- the Texans have compiled a 125:76 run-to-pass ratio. Houston leads the league in rushing attempts, and it's not close. Here is Matt Schaub's updated target distribution with Johnson out for the last five games: Jacoby Jones 31, Daniels 29, Kevin Walter 28, Derrick Mason 8. Daniels, Jones, and Walter are all in the rather awkward position of needing their opponents to play better in order to produce at a worthwhile rate. Make sense? ... Schaub is effectively managing games, turning the ball over just twice with only two sacks taken during Houston's dominant, three-game win streak. The Bucs are 28th against the pass, but the Texans will almost certainly employ another run-dominated game plan Sunday, attempting to impose their will with Foster and possibly Tate. It's been the case all season and has not changed: Schaub is a borderline, low-ceiling fantasy starter.
The Texans rank first in total defense, second against the pass, and fourth against the run. In a game that the Bucs could easily lose the time-of-possession battle in a lopsided manner, there isn't a single confident fantasy starter on Tampa Bay's side. ... Josh Freeman is showing no signs of turning his season around, compiling an 8:10 TD-to-INT ratio with just one 300-yard effort through eight games this season. Freeman has thrown for 300 yards only twice in 33 career starts. ... LeGarrette Blount's every-down back audition failed in Week 9, so he will continue to need the Bucs to stay competitive or have the lead in games to generate substantial fantasy stats. On the season, Blount is averaging 11 touches for 53.3 yards without a touchdown when Tampa loses (three-game sample). In Tampa's three wins with Blount in the lineup, he's scored three touchdowns and is averaging 21 touches for 102 yards. Start Blount if you think the Bucs can get a lead in this game. ... Mike Williams is coming off a thigh injury and a season-low snap percentage. He's also likely to receive the Johnathan Joseph treatment. He's a low-end WR3. ... Preston Parker has struggled against man-coverage defenses this season, and the Texans play a lot of man. ... Arrelious Benn has now been out-produced by Dezmon Briscoe in two games straight. From a fantasy perspective, Benn and Briscoe are canceling each other out.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Bucs 17
St. Louis @ Cleveland
Rams-Browns has Week 10's lowest over/under, so avoid this game where possible. ... Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty's (calf) injuries have forced Chris Ogbonnaya into the starting lineup, and he's promptly overtaken Chris Johnson and Marshawn Lynch as the worst running back in football. Ogbonnaya has 65 yards and two fumbles on 24 carries (2.71 YPC) in his last two games. The Rams' run-defense ranking still looks bad, but they've held far the more skilled backs of Arizona and New Orleans to a combined 32 rushing attempts for 89 yards (2.78 average) over the past two weeks. Ogbonnaya has entered rare must-not-start territory. He’s fantasy trash. ... Greg Little is still being heavily targeted -- he led Cleveland with eight in Week 9 -- but the Browns may soon have to turn away from him. Little has simply failed to capitalize on his opportunity, dropping six passes over the last five games with two drops apiece in Weeks 8 and 9. The Rams' pass defense obviously presents a favorable matchup, but Little is playing far too poorly to be trusted in fantasy leagues. In my own league, I dropped Little last week to stash Kendall Hunter for the stretch run. Even at his peak this year, Little has bobbled WR3/4 value. He's not going to suddenly turn into a legit fantasy starter.
Even in perhaps the best matchup they'll get all year, there isn't another Cleveland pass catcher worthy of Week 10 consideration in standard fantasy leagues. Colt McCoy's target distribution since the Week 5 bye: Little 38, Joshua Cribbs 19, Ben Watson 17, Evan Moore 13, Mohamed Massaquoi 10, Jordan Norwood 7. ... Massaquoi's lingering concussion problems are notable for return-yardage leaguers because Cribbs will get another start. ... Watson is scoreless with a 32.5-yard average since Week 4. ... The Rams have allowed the fourth most passing scores in football with a 15:6 TD-to-INT ratio against. Colt McCoy is still a two-QB league option only with 18-24 MPH winds in the Sunday forecast for Browns Stadium. McCoy's weak arm has held Cleveland's passing offense hostage this season, and it's not going to get better with the weather worsening.
The Browns opened the season playing respectable run defense, but the unit is collapsing with first-round DT Phil Taylor hitting a rookie wall. Pro Football Focus has graded Taylor negatively in back-to-back games. It's no coincidence, then, that 49ers and Texans backs have run rampant on the Browns during that span, piling up three rushing scores and 421 yards on 71 carries (5.93 YPC) in Weeks 8-9. On the other side, Steven Jackson is piping hot with a 133-total yard average, 5.06 yards-per-carry clip, and three touchdowns over the past month. Cleveland will have lots of trouble stopping him. ... Accuracy is Sam Bradford's calling card, but he was clearly out of sync with his receivers in Week 9 after barely getting in any practice time while nursing a two-week high ankle sprain. In charting Bradford's throws at Arizona, I considered 17-of-36 (47.2%) to be inaccurate -- either too far ahead of or behind Bradford's intended target, or off the mark entirely. That percentage will rise on a weekly basis as Bradford gets healthier and practices more with Brandon Lloyd, but he'll be a very low-end QB2 against Cleveland's top-ranked pass defense.
Here is the Rams' target distribution since Lloyd was acquired: Lloyd 38, Greg Salas 17, Brandon Gibson 11, Austin Pettis and Danario Alexander 6, Lance Kendricks 5. ... Bradford targeted Lloyd 13 times in his Week 9 return, just narrowly missing mammoth gains on several play-action bomb attempts. There's no question that playcaller Josh McDaniels has made sure to feature Lloyd in the passing game. Lloyd plays the vast majority of his snaps on the offensive left side, so he'll mostly avoid LCB Joe Haden's coverage if the Browns don't use a shadow technique. I suspect they will, but it's not a guarantee and would consider Lloyd a WR2 regardless. After this game, the Rams don't face a pass defense ranked in the top 17 until Week 15. Lloyd is headed for a hot run. ... Pettis will replace Salas (fractured fibula) as St. Louis' slot receiver the rest of the way and should be owned in all PPR leagues. Bradford loves to check it down to slot receivers, targeting Danny Amendola more than any Rams pass catcher last season and Pettis and Salas a combined 11 times in Week 9. Pettis doesn't have a whole lot of big-play ability, but will be a safe bet for 5-7 weekly receptions. ... Alexander is the Rams' other starter, but has missed the last two games with a hamstring strain. Gibson has filled in with seven receptions for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Gibson struggles to create separation and hasn't found the end zone since Week 3.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Browns 16
Washington @ Miami
Roy Helu was installed as Washington's every-down tailback in Week 9 (64-of-67 snaps played), and the fourth-round rookie promptly totaled 146 yards on 24 touches while setting the Redskins' franchise record with 14 receptions. Helu can't be counted on for double-digit catches each week, but John Beck has shown enough check-down tendencies for Helu to maintain RB2 status in PPR leagues so long as he keeps the job. 31 of Beck's 131 passes (23.7%) on the year have targeted running backs. The Skins are throwing 37 times a game, so if the percentage holds the backs can expect roughly nine targets per week. Just be aware that Washington may have the league's toughest remaining run defense schedule. Here's a look: @ MIA, vs. DAL, @ SEA, vs. NYJ, vs. NE, @ NYG, vs. MIN (Week 16). Helu is unlikely to have much rushing success, rendering his fantasy value far greater in leagues that award points for receptions. In their last four games, the Dolphins have allowed 359 yards on 102 carries (3.52 YPC) to enemy tailbacks, none of whom has scored. ... Here's the rest of Beck's target distribution among at least somewhat relevant fantasy players: Fred Davis 28, Jabar Gaffney 22, Terrence Austin 15, Leonard Hankerson 10.
Despite the Skins' poor passing attack, the fact that Davis is the clear No. 1 option makes him an every-week fantasy starter. In terms of points per game, Davis is the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end. ... Gaffney complained about his role following last week's four-catch, 40-yard performance, primarily because Beck refuses to even make an attempt at a vertical passing attack. Per Pro Football Focus, just 14 of Beck's 131 throws this season have traveled further than 20 yards downfield. He's completed three. Even as a possession receiver, Gaffney will have a hard time generating worthwhile fantasy production. He's a WR5, and favorable matchups don't make much of a difference. ... Hankerson's role has increased by the week. The third-round rookie played two snaps in Week 7, ten in Week 8, and was promoted into a starting job in Week 9, playing 68-of-69 offensive downs. Hankerson has considerably more big-play ability than Gaffney. If you're dying to use a Redskins wideout against Miami's No. 27 pass defense, Hankerson would be your best bet.
Reggie Bush has done his best to earn Miami's feature back job with 262 total yards and a 6.96 YPC average over the last two games, but he will be difficult to rely on for consistently substantial workloads with Daniel Thomas healthy. Getting wins isn't going to be the organization's priority in the season's second half, and Bush probably won't be a Dolphin in 2012 with $4.75 million due to him in salary and bonuses. The coaches have always preferred Thomas between the tackles, and he has the potential to be the club's long-term bell-cow runner. In all likelihood, this will be a 50:50 carry split going forward. Off the injury report after battling a nagging hamstring pull during the first nine weeks, Thomas is still the better stretch-run fantasy hold. Both are flex options only against Washington's top-12 run defense. ... It's fair to wonder if Davone Bess is in coach Tony Sparano's doghouse. Sparano publicly questioned the slot receiver's study habits leading up to Week 9, and Bess proceeded to play a season-low nine snaps in the 31-3 win. Perhaps Bess' playing time died only because he plays on passing downs and Miami had fewer of them due to the lead, but it's certainly still a concerning situation for fantasy owners. Rookie Clyde Gates played just as much.
Matt Moore played his best game since the end of the 2009 season in Week 9, completing 17-of-23 passes for 244 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. Moore capitalized on near-perfect pass protection from Miami's O-Line, which held Kansas City without a sack. Whereas the Chiefs rank 21st in pass defense and last in the NFL in sacks, the Redskins are third in sacks and 11th in pass defense. This is a significantly tougher matchup, and I'd be far more inclined to chalk up Moore's big game to a fluke than bet it continues. ... Moore resumed peppering Brandon Marshall with footballs against the Chiefs, targeting him a team-high 11 times. Marshall secured eight for 106 yards and a TD. Now on pace for 92 catches and 1,288 yards, Marshall is a top-15 fantasy receiver in standard scoring and 13th in PPR. In their last four games, the Skins are allowing an average of six receptions for 90 yards to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. It doesn't hurt that both of the Redskins' safeties, LaRon Landry (Achilles) and O.J. Atogwe (knee), are questionable to play.
Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Dolphins 17
Arizona @ Philadelphia
Coming off a let-down loss to the Bears, the Eagles' passing game should be quickly remedied by a Cardinals defense that has been destroyed all season by vertical passing attacks. Joe Flacco, Rex Grossman, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning have all dropped 290 or more yards on Arizona, which combines a mediocre pass rush with a secondary that lets wideouts and tight ends run freely through the back end as often as any defense in football. No NFC team has given up more 20-yard pass plays, and the Cards rank in the bottom ten in passing yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating allowed. DeSean Jackson has been quiet more often than not this year, clearing 50 receiving yards in just 5-of-8 games. He couldn't ask for a better slump buster. Jackson has the Eagles' second most targets since their Week 7 bye, so it isn't as if Michael Vick has stopped trying. ... Speaking of targets, Brent Celek leads Philadelphia with 27 in the last three games. He appears to have overtaken slot receiver Jason Avant (12 targets) as Vick's preferred option over the middle, capitalizing on improved pass protection that frees Celek up from blocking. Celek has limited talent and is averaging just 10 yards a catch, but at least based on recent games, it wouldn't be fair to characterize him as the Eagles' No. 4 passing-game option anymore.
Jeremy Maclin is coming off a slow game in the 30-24 loss to Chicago, but is still on pace to finish as a top-ten fantasy receiver. He leads the Eagles in receptions (44), receiving yards (606), and receiving touchdowns (4), all by healthy margins. ... Like Jackson, Maclin, and Celek, Vick has a favorable Week 10 matchup. Arizona is too slow at outside linebacker to contain Vick when he breaks the pocket, and gets burned relentlessly by deep shots. ... The Cardinals eked out a Week 9 win over the Rams, but in the process were gutted by the Steven Jackson-Cadillac Williams running back duo for 147 yards on 32 carries (4.59 YPC). Ray Rice touched up Arizona for three touchdowns the week before. Leading the NFL in rushing yards per game, rushing scores, and non-passing touchdowns, LeSean McCoy is about as confident a Week 10 fantasy play as it gets.
If I'm alive in an Eliminator, there isn't a Week 10 team I'd feel better about than the Eagles. The box score doesn't do justice to how poorly John Skelton played against the Rams. In terms of giving receivers run-after-catch chances, Skelton's ball placement is a major work in progress, even if his pocket poise and arm are upgrades on injured starter Kevin Kolb's. In my Week 9 game review, I charted 17 of Skelton's 35 passes (48.5%) as "inaccurate" -- either too far ahead of or behind his intended target, or totally off the mark. Skelton showed zero awareness on back-to-back third-quarter safeties, nearly fumbling the ball away on a James Hall sack, and standing carelessly in the end zone after a short scramble on the second. Skelton has a long way to go. ... To his credit, somewhat, Skelton peppered Larry Fitzgerald with a team-high 12 targets, of which Fitz secured four for 43 yards and a game-tying touchdown that sent the game to overtime. The Cards are doing a commendable job of keeping Fitzgerald roaming around the formation so that defenses have a tougher time keying up to stop him. He has at least 78 receiving yards and or a touchdown in six of the last seven games. Fitzgerald should see plenty of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Joselio Hanson in this one to make up for his time against Nnamdi Asomugha.
Andre Roberts has now posted the two highest yardage totals of his career (5-110-1, 5-55) in starts by Skelton. This may be relevant news for deep leaguers. ... The Cardinals are using a shotgun-heavy, four- and five-receiver offense with Skelton at the helm, similar to the system he played in at Fordham. It translated to slot receiver Early Doucet playing 35-of-59 downs in Week 9, his second highest snap rate (59.3%) of the season. Doucet is averaging over five catches for 55 yards with two touchdowns in his last four games and will continue to be the second best bet for receiving production in Arizona. As a slot receiver, he's got a better matchup than both Fitz and Roberts in this game. Doucet won't tangle with Asomugha or Asante Samuel. ... Beanie Wells is dealing with what is believed to be loose cartilage in his right knee, the same knee on which Wells had meniscus surgery last preseason. Still running hard and playing his heart out, Wells showed no ability to get the edge or accelerate through oncoming defenders against St. Louis. The Cardinals would probably do Wells a service by holding him out for a game or two, but coach Ken Whisenhunt has been clear that there are no plans to do that. It leaves fantasy owners in a bind, because Wells is so difficult to bench against terrible run defenses like the Rams and Eagles'.
Score Prediction: Eagles 37, Cardinals 17
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Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Passing-game production will be tough to come by for the Colts in this one. Jacksonville ranks eighth against the pass and has surrendered the NFL's second fewest 20-plus yard completions, preventing long bombs with a strict Cover-2 zone. The Jags have held Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez all to 200 passing yards or fewer, and Curtis Painter is far worse than all of the above. Tanking over the past month, Painter has completed 71-of-127 passes (55.9%) for 603 yards (4.75 YPA) in his last four games, with a 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio and sixth turnover on a lost fumble. With a quarterback playing terribly in an unfavorable matchup, expectations have to be low for Indy's receivers. ... Jacob Tamme will replace Dallas Clark (leg) as the Colts' slot tight end for the foreseeable future, maybe the rest of the season. Tamme was targeted a team-high seven times in Week 9, although two of them came via Dan Orlovsky after Painter was benched in the fourth quarter. An ordinary talent whose 2010 numbers were inflated by Peyton Manning's extremely efficient aggressiveness, Tamme may post a decent game or two down the stretch, but will almost certainly be unreliable in a passing "attack" that doesn't generate enough yards and touchdowns to support a single stable fantasy receiver, let alone a newcomer.
Painter's updated target distribution among wide receivers this season: Pierre Garcon 53, Reggie Wayne 43, Austin Collie 30. ... Garcon is still the best fantasy bet of the bunch, but his stats have circled the drain along with Painter's over the past month, averaging 43 yards during that span without a touchdown. Garcon is quickly losing WR3 appeal. ... Wayne has been nearly as bad, failing to find pay dirt since the opener and averaging 46 yards in the last four games. In his contract year, Wayne is playing like he knows this lost season will be his last in Indianapolis. ... For the second straight game in Week 9, Joseph Addai (hamstring, knee) was active but did not play. The Colts have had a different player lead the team in rushing in each of the last three games, and none of them is Addai. Fantasy owners' best option is to simply look elsewhere. Not helping matters is the fact that the Jags' front seven is fresh off a bye after holding Arian Foster and Ray Rice to a combined 140 yards on 41 carries (3.41 YPC) in their previous two games.
Indianapolis is getting slaughtered by the pass, but not even the friendliest matchup possible can spark Jacksonville's passing "offense." Blaine Gabbert shouldn't be playing. In his last five starts, the top-ten pick has completed an unthinkably poor 62-of-146 throws (42.5%) for 716 yards (4.90 YPA) with four touchdowns and five turnovers. No Jaguar has exceeded 63 receiving yards since Week 5. Jason Hill is the definition of a tease, and Marcedes Lewis is just barely a top-40 tight end. Yes, top forty. He's 39th in scoring at the position. ... These are Mike Thomas' three career stat lines against the Colts: 3-63, 5-68-0, 2-20-1. Indianapolis' smallish defense matches up well with little slot receiver types. Thomas is 60th in fantasy scoring among wideouts, so move along. ... His legs fresh after a Week 8 bye, Maurice Jones-Drew remains the Jags' best option for ball movement. Jones-Drew has 12 touchdowns in 10 career matchups with the Colts. He's also averaging 5.16 yards per carry in those games, and Indy's run defense is as bad as it's ever been.
Score Prediction: Colts 16, Jaguars 10
Denver @ Kansas City
Tim Tebow has been a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2-of-3 starts and is averaging 20 standard league points per game. In Week 9, Tebow ranked third behind only Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. Safe from an in-game benching after leading Denver to a 2-1 record thus far, Tebow will continue to be a high-upside QB1 at Arrowhead. If he holds this job for the season's duration, I'd be willing to guarantee Tebow will be a top-ten quarterback the rest of the way. This is a particularly favorable matchup for Tebow because the Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in sacks. ... Maybe just to keep the Raiders guessing, the Broncos didn't come out running a read-option offense in Week 9. Tebow took seven of his first 13 snaps from center, and save for two early QB keepers, it wasn't until the second half that the Urban Meyer-like spread morphed into Denver's base attack. In the final two quarters, the Broncos ran 19 plays out of the shotgun compared to nine from center. All told, they racked up 316 yards and three touchdowns on 39 offensive snaps from the 'gun (8.18-yard average) compared to 90 yards and one TD on 19 pro-style plays (4.74 average). Perhaps the read-option is a Wildcat-like fad to which NFL teams will eventually catch up, but for now it's a big-play creating force. Healthy again, feature back Willis McGahee scored a 60-yard touchdown on a third-quarter option run and is a fantasy must-start. In Week 10, he'll take on a Kansas City defense that ranks 19th versus the run and allowed 142 total yards to Reggie Bush last week.
The plight of Denver pass catchers is much different. The Broncos finished Week 9 with a 38:21 run-to-pass ratio, and Tebow has yet to exceed 172 passing yards through three starts. Eric Decker once again appears to be Denver's best bet for targets, but he's proven to be a weekly roll of the dice. Tebow doesn't play favorites in the pass game and is an incredibly inefficient passer, leaving little volume to go around. ... Here is Tebow's target distribution on the season: Decker 22, Eddie Royal 22, Demaryius Thomas 15, Knowshon Moreno 9, Daniel Fells and Matt Willis 7. ... The Broncos' preferred change-of-pace back behind McGahee is Lance Ball, leaving Moreno with a third-down only role. Moreno played 16 snaps in Week 9, while Ball had 13 and McGahee 39.
Some observers may have earmarked Matt Cassel for a Weeks 9 through 11 hot run with three straight matchups against bottom-ten pass defenses, but he couldn't have started it more slowly than last week's miserable effort against Miami. Cassel rarely kept his feet in Week 9, taking five sacks and nine hits while failing to lead a touchdown drive. Cassel's pass protection has been up and down this season, and he just isn't a good quarterback. In his last three games, Cassel is 54-of-101 (53.5%) for 675 yards (6.68 YPA), one touchdown, and five turnovers. After Elvis Dumervil got off the snide with two sacks of Carson Palmer last week, I'd worry that Cassel will again be under heavy duress. He's just a QB2. ... In his last three meetings with Dwayne Bowe, Bailey has held Kansas City's No. 1 receiver to lines of 0-0, 1-6, and 13-186-2. The outlier occurred when Denver built a 35-0 second-quarter lead in Week 10 of last season, and a playing-hurt Bailey gave Bowe all kinds of cushion. Denver won the game 49-29. Bowe has been too productive in his contract year to bench, but owners need to be aware of Bailey's capability of shutting him down.
The possibility of Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston swapping big games back and forth was mentioned in this space last week. In Week 9, it was Breaston on top (7-115) with Baldwin (1-12) taking a backseat. The week before, Baldwin led the Chiefs with five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown; Breaston managed 42 yards on three scoreless grabs. Breaston is the safer fantasy bet in that he plays more snaps (75-of-84 in Week 9). Baldwin is a part-time player (38 snaps), but has more talent. While both have favorable Week 10 matchups with Bailey likely to shadow Bowe, neither Breaston nor Baldwin should be counted on for consistency. ... Jackie Battle's Week 9 numbers were down because K.C. fell behind 14-3 at the half and was forced into pass-heavy comeback mode. More alarming is Battle's weekly yards-per-carry decline. His YPC average has dipped in four straight games, bottoming out at 2.86 against the Dolphins. Battle maintains low-end RB2/flex appeal for a Week 10 game in which his workload figures to increase, but it's worth remembering that he hasn't been a feature back since college. His body isn't used to this many carries.
Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Camp darling Antonio Brown failed to score or clear 70 yards in each of the first six games, but he's maximizing his opportunity at a larger role. Whereas Brown played 46.7% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in the first month and a half, his snap rate has jumped to 59.8% in the last three games with Hines Ward (ankle/concussion) and Emmanuel Sanders (personal/knee) in and out of the lineup. Brown leads the team in targets during that span with 35 -- the next closest Steeler is Mike Wallace with 27 -- and only Wallace, Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson have scored more fantasy points among wideouts over the last three weeks. Brown is the real deal, and his role will only expand with Sanders rehabbing from in-season knee surgery. ... While Brown has added a new dimension to Pittsburgh's offense, Wallace has a more favorable Week 10 matchup. Brown plays split end in most personnel groupings, lining up to the offense's left side. He'll square off with Bengals top cornerback Leon Hall for the majority of this game, leaving 32-year-old Nate Clements on Wallace. "60 Minutes" will have a clear upperhand when the two go mano-a-mano.
Ward is catch-less since Week 7 with five targets in the last three games. Injuries have plenty to do with it, but he's not a fantasy option. ... Since Week 3, the Bengals have held opposing tight ends to an average of four catches for 40 yards per game, with Dallas Clark scoring the lone touchdown in Week 6 garbage time. Heath Miller is running more pass routes, but this is a tough matchup. ... With no teams on a bye, Ben Roethlisberger is more of a high-end QB2 facing Cincinnati's top-ten pass defense. Bengals DC Mike Zimmer has had Roethlisberger's number recently, holding him to a combined 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio in their last five meetings on 97-of-161 passing (60.2%) for 1,112 yards (6.91 YPA). It's a pedestrian 222.4-yard average. ... With the Steelers leaning on a pass-heavy, spread-type offense that has been much discussed previously in this space, Rashard Mendenhall has three straight games of 16 touches or fewer. While Mendenhall has continued to play well on decreased opportunities, he is an RB2 only at the moment. He's not getting the rock enough, and the Bengals rank first in the AFC in run defense.
The Steelers' 2011 run defense hasn't been the shutdown unit of seasons past, but it's creeping back up the NFL rankings since five-time Pro Bowl NT Casey Hampton returned from a shoulder injury. Whereas Pittsburgh's defense allowed 272 yards and two touchdowns on 67 carries (4.06 YPC) without Hampton in Weeks 5-7, opposing rushers' stats have plummeted to 110 yards and one score on 39 carries (2.81 average) with Hampton in the lineup for Weeks 8-9. The Steelers now rank sixth in the league against the run. Cedric Benson resumed his normal workload coming off suspension last week, seeing 20 carries to change-of-pace back Bernard Scott's six, but this will be a difficult matchup for Cincinnati's feature runner. Benson has averaged 3.13 yards a carry in his last three games, and his downhill, straight-ahead style has never given the Steelers much trouble. Benson has faced Pittsburgh six times in his career, all as a Bengal over the last three seasons. In those games, Benson has never topped 76 rushing yards, managing 258 combined on 79 carries (3.26 YPC). In other words, this is a good week to sit Cedric Benson. ... Jermaine Gresham will apparently return from his hamstring injury in Week 10, but he could easily get stuck as an in-line blocker against James Harrison. Gresham is on pace for under 500 receiving yards.
With Pittsburgh's run defense stiffening and the pass defense playing at an elite level, the Bengals may struggle for ball movement on Sunday. Andy Dalton has proven a pro-ready game manager and Cincinnati is 6-2, but the stats should be kept in perspective. The Bengals' wins have come against teams with a combined 16-33 record (.326), and Dalton has faced just two top-14 pass defenses. The Steelers' defense is easily the best he'll see all season. ... I'll be interested to see whether A.J. Green gets the Ike Taylor treatment this week, and I wouldn't consider it a given because Green is a rookie and Jerome Simpson isn't a slouch. Green's position in the base offense is flanker (RWR); Taylor is an RCB in the base defense. If the Steelers play sides, Green will avoid Taylor's coverage on the heavy majority of snaps. Green is the No. 7 fantasy receiver, so I'd want him in my fantasy lineup every week. ... If anything, the threat of Taylor staying at right corner makes Simpson more risky. I'd look elsewhere for my Week 10 WR3. ... William Gay is the Steelers' weakest defensive back in coverage and plays in the slot when opponents go three-wide. Bengals slot man Andre Caldwell is a worthwhile deep sleeper. Caldwell played 51-of-77 snaps in Week 9 (66.2%) and ranked second on the team with nine targets. With Gresham likely to block more often than not, Caldwell should be open and Dalton's go-to guy over the middle.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
4:05PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Seattle
In a clash of two juggernaut run defenses, the Ravens hold a clear edge because they generate better ball movement than Seattle via the air. Since a painfully slow start, Joe Flacco has a 60.2% completion rate in his last two games and 300-plus yards in each. Flacco isn't a fantasy starter, but his improvement -- even if only incremental -- bodes well for surrounding skill players. ... In terms of pass defense rankings, the Seahawks are in the bottom ten in completion rate and QB rating allowed, and they rank 29th in sacks. Flacco should have time to throw, and Anquan Boldin has a commanding lead among Ravens receivers in targets; his 73 are 19 more than second-place Ed Dickson's. Still looking fresh since Baltimore's Week 5 bye, Boldin is averaging 6.5 catches for over 101 yards in his last four games. Be wary of Boldin slowing down during the stretch run like last year, but he is an every-week WR2 until the slippage begins with added value in PPR leagues. ... I really want to like Torrey Smith. He gets open with more consistency than any other Baltimore wideout and has been a few dropped passes away from back-to-back 100-yard games. Smith may take a playing-time hit when Lee Evans (ankle) returns, but he can have a big day against Seattle's stiff-hipped secondary if he holds onto the ball. Smith separates with ease.
As alluded to above, Dickson is getting a fair amount of looks but isn't capitalizing. He hasn't scored since Week 1 and is averaging 9.2 yards per catch. Seattle has allowed an average of 65 yards to tight ends over the past month, but Dickson simply hasn't been good enough for serious fantasy consideration. ... Seattle's typically run-tough defense sprung a Week 9 leak, getting gashed by Dallas rushers for 163 yards on 29 attempts (5.62 YPC) while giving up another 47 receiving yards to DeMarco Murray. Even with a difficult matchup, Ray Rice is a top-ten fantasy running back. The Ravens should be in scoring position enough for Rice to get ample red-zone opportunities, and he's been too hot for even the NFL's best run defenses to handle in the pass game. Among tailbacks, only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte have more receiving yards this year.
Tarvaris Jackson was the worst quarterback in the league last week, completing 17-of-30 passes for 221 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Coach Pete Carroll has acknowledged that T-Jack's right (throwing) pectoral strain still isn't healed, and it's hard to imagine using him even in a two-QB league against Baltimore's top-five pass defense. ... The Ravens have limited opposing No. 1 receivers to an average of under three catches for 58 yards and one score over the last three games during a stretch that included Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald. It's not promising news for Sidney Rice. ... In Jackson's last three full games played, slot receiver Doug Baldwin has a combined 11 catches for 142 yards and no touchdowns. It'a scoreless average of 35.5 yards on four catches. ... As expected, Big Mike Williams' (3-41) return to the lineup in Week 9 rendered Ben Obomanu (2-6) fantasy obsolete. Obomanu actually got the start, but the two shared time evenly. Williams played 30 snaps; Obomanu 29. It might be the least attractive fantasy situation going. ... I'd say there's about a 98% chance that Marshawn Lynch's 23-135-1 line from Week 9 proves a fantasy tease. The Cowboys' run defense was an absolute sieve without ILB Sean Lee, and Lynch entered the game having exceeded 33 rushing yards just twice in his previous six 2011 appearances. The Ravens have the NFL's third-ranked run defense, permitting 3.35 yards a carry.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Seahawks 13
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4:15PM ET Games
Detroit @ Chicago
The Week 9 bye couldn't have come at a better time for Matthew Stafford, who was nursing knee and ankle injuries before the off week. He's back to 100 percent now. Stafford touched up these same Bears for 219 yards and two touchdowns on 19-of-26 passing (73.1%) in Week 5, seeing a reduction in attempts because Jahvid Best (12-163-1) ran wild on Chicago. Best, of course, won't play this time around, and Stafford's passing volume is certain to rise. The No. 6 overall fantasy quarterback through nine weeks, Stafford is a locked-and-loaded every-week starter. ... In his last six meetings with the Bears, Calvin Johnson has tortured Lovie Smith's Cover-2 defense for 554 yards and four touchdowns on 34 catches, good for a six-catch, 92.3-yard average. ... Brent Celek became the latest tight end to bust Chicago's zone in Week 9, securing an Eagles-high seven catches for 60 yards. Jermichael Finley (7-85-3), Greg Olsen (5-50-1), Brandon Pettigrew (4-39-1), Jimmy Graham (6-79), and Tony Gonzalez (5-72) are the others. The Bears allow more fantasy points to tight ends than any team in football. Pettigrew is a recommended Week 10 play.
Until we see substantive production from the Nate Burleson-Titus Young-Tony Scheffler group, it's going to be hard to believe in any of the three. In the Lions' last game, Scheffler and Young both scored touchdowns, Young's on terribly blown coverage by the Broncos. Scheffler had two catches for 15 scoreless yards the week before, while Young didn't catch a pass and played only 14 offensive snaps. Burleson gets the most playing time of the bunch, but is averaging 15.3 yards per game since Week 2. Someone needs to permanently emerge here in order to become useful, and I'm not sure anyone will. ... The Bears' defense is serving up 5.21 yards per carry on the season, so this would theoretically be a favorable matchup for Lions backs. Here is Detroit's backfield breakdown in touches and yards since Best went down two games ago: Maurice Morris 25-128, Keiland Williams 21-77. Kevin Smith has now been added back into the mix. Morris did score on a goal-line carry before the bye and would be a fantasy owner's best bet, but he's an extremely low-end flex option. Williams and Smith are of zero use in fantasy leagues for Week 10.
NFL teams are 9-3 coming off bye weeks over the past month, while clubs playing after Monday Night Football are 4-6. While the Bears have seemingly turned around their season with three straight victories, this is another awfully tough matchup for Jay Cutler and the passing game. Fresh after the off week, the Lions rank fourth in sacks and sixth in overall pass defense. Tread very lightly when considering starting Cutler in a fantasy league, and his outside receivers (Roy Williams, Devin Hester) remain non-factors. ... Bears slot receiver Earl Bennett had a nice night against Philadelphia in Week 9, but the last time Bennett cleared 90 receiving yards he regressed to 3-53-0, 3-37-0, 1-14-0 lines in his next three games. Bennett is worth PPR consideration, but he's not going to be a fantasy difference maker. ... The Bears would still be far better off attacking the Lions with the run, keeping Stafford and Megatron off the field and targeting the leakiest part of Detroit's defense with Chicago's best player. The Lions rank 28th against the run and are giving up 5.24 yards per rushing attempt. In seven career meetings with the Bears, Matt Forte has six touchdowns and is averaging 129.7 total yards per game. ... Marion Barber can't be trusted for consistent workloads or yardage, but he's at least worth rostering in touchdown-heavy leagues and as a Forte handcuff. Barber has found pay dirt in four of his five appearances this season.
Score Prediction: Lions 21, Bears 20
NY Giants @ San Francisco
Opposing feature backs' stat lines against San Francisco this season: LeSean McCoy 9-18-0, Jahvid Best 12-37-0, LeGarrette Blount 10-34-0, Cedric Benson 17-64-0, Felix Jones 9-25-0, Marshawn Lynch 13-33-0, Roy Helu 10-41-0, Chris Ogbonnaya 11-37-0. Combined, they have a 3.18 YPC average. The 49ers are the lone team left that has yet to allow a rushing score. In other words, Ahmad Bradshaw's (foot) continued inactivity doesn't do much for Brandon Jacobs' fantasy appeal. The Giants will absolutely have to throw to move the chains. ... The Niners aren't nearly as bad in pass defense as their No. 22 ranking suggests, but this game sets up well for Eli Manning to rack up attempts. In his last seven games, Eli has completed 158-of-248 passes (63.7%) for 2,023 yards (8.16 YPA), 15 TDs, and five picks. He's locked in as a QB1. ... When the 49ers line up to adjust for three-receiver sets, LCB Carlos Rogers kicks to the slot with Tarell Brown staying at right cornerback and rookie Chris Culliver on the left. Rogers is playing like a legit shutdown corner in a contract season, and he's going to square off early and often with Victor Cruz. I've always been a big Cruz fan and own him in a Dynasty league, but I would not start him this week.
Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is expected to start and will be in Brown's coverage for most of this game. Brown has been the 49ers' weakest cover man, so get Nicks into your lineup. ... Just like last season, Mario Manningham is poised for a fast finish. He'll match up with the rookie Culliver and is a rock-solid WR2. ... In their last six games, the 49ers have held starting tight ends to just one touchdown and a 42.5-yard weekly average. With no teams on a Week 10 bye, burly Giants starter Jake Ballard will safely resume TE2 status. He may have to block Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith for much of Sunday. Smith has 6.5 sacks over his last five games.
In LE Justin Tuck's four games played this season, the G-Men have allowed opposing tailbacks to rush for 389 yards and two scores on 91 carries (4.27 YPC). In four games without Tuck, running backs have 94 attempts for 472 yards (5.02 average) and six rushing touchdowns. This matchup isn't quite as favorable for Frank Gore as New York's No. 25 run-defense ranking indicates, but it isn't prohibitive, either. ... The Giants have been far tougher in pass than run defense all year, racking up a league-high 28 sacks and allowing only nine passing touchdowns while intercepting ten throws. The Niners had better hope they don't have to throw much on Sunday, something coach Jim Harbaugh has been averse to anyway because his quarterback is Alex Smith. This is a difficult matchup for Michael Crabtree and Braylon Edwards, and Smith is no better than a low-end QB2. ... Because of the Giants' NFL-best pass rush, I'd be concerned that Vernon Davis could get stuck on the line blocking in this game. Glass-half full fantasy owners can note that the Giants gave up 12 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns to Patriots tight ends last week.
Score Prediction: Giants 20, 49ers 14
Sunday Night Football
New England @ NY Jets
Patriots-Jets games are always difficult to predict because the teams specifically game plan for each other. It's not a situation where Bill Belichick or Rex Ryan approaches the matchup thinking, "We're going to do what we do, and see if they can stop us." Each side caters its personnel groupings and playcalls to attack areas it deems the opponent's weakness. Believe it or not, this is rare around the stubborn, old-school NFL. When the Jets and Pats play, you never know what you're going to get. ... Of course, all we have to work with is historical data. We know that New England has held Santonio Holmes to a combined seven catches for 80 yards in their last two meetings, though Holmes has a touchdown in both. I'd still want to start Holmes because the Pats' pass defense stinks. ... One thing we can count on is the Jets at least making an attempt at a run-heavy approach. Shonn Greene had a 41-yard gain called back by penalty in Week 9 that otherwise would've turned his 19-76 line into a much more impressive 20-117 day. Greene is a low-end RB2 and offers little week-to-week upside, but he is not a bad fantasy start because he's going to get the rock a lot, and New England plays mediocre run defense.
Joe McKnight had nine Week 9 carries, but generated only 27 yards (3.0 YPC) and got just three of them when the game was still in doubt. The Jets beat the Bills 27-11. McKnight has a toe injury this week, and his offensive role is guaranteed to decrease, if he even plays at all. ... Plaxico Burress had three catches for 42 scoreless yards in the Jets' Week 5 loss to New England. Plax has looked better recently, but I'd want to see more than two decent games from a 34-year-old receiver with chronic back problems before plugging him into my fantasy lineup. I'm not a Burress believer. ... Mark Sanchez has either been really bad or really good in each of his five career games against New England. He has a three-interception game, a four-INT game, and three pick-less games against the Pats, in the latter combining for six touchdown passes. My bet is always going to be on Sanchez playing poorly rather than well. That may sound simplistic, but the bottom line is that I wouldn't get cute trying to use Sanchez in a standard fantasy league. He's a QB2.
In the Jets' last game against Tom Brady, they dropped seven or eight defenders into coverage on virtually every snap. Brady threw 33 times -- his second lowest attempt total of the season -- while BenJarvus Green-Ellis capitalized on the soft fronts for season highs in carries (27), rushing yards (136), YPC average (5.0), and touchdowns (2). Brady still had 321 yards and a TD, though, and in his last five meetings with Ryan's defense has completed 122-of-184 passes (66.3%) for 1,504 yards (8.17 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. It's a 300.8-yard average. Chris Wesseling and Gregg Rosenthal rank Brady as a top-five quarterback this week for good reason. ... An ESPN report this week suggested that Darrelle Revis will shadow Wes Welker into the slot Sunday, though we've heard that before and it hasn't happened. Seeing is believing at this point. These are Welker's last four lines against the Jets with Ryan as head coach: 5-124, 7-80-1, 6-38-1, 15-192. Start 'em. ... The Patriots pass catcher to be most concerned with in this matchup is Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has not found pay dirt or exceeded 65 yards in four career games against New York, including playoffs. Gronkowski should be near the bottom of this week's TE1 rankings.
Aaron Hernandez, on the other hand, has given the Jets more fits. He's averaging five catches for nearly 70 yards in three regular season contests against New York and will be a better bet for production than Gronkowski this week. ... Deion Branch is struggling mightily to create separation, which perhaps should be expected from a 32-year-old receiver eight games into the NFL season. His yardage total has dropped in each game over the past month and Branch should be benched until he picks it back up. ... Kevin Faulk is tentatively expected back from his lingering knee injury this week, but it's not a sure thing and he won't be a fantasy option. ... Danny Woodhead has no fantasy relevance when Faulk is in the lineup. Woodhead is waiver material. ... Rookie Stevan Ridley's sleeper status is in the gutter with Green-Ellis healthy and a sharp drop in weekly snaps over New England's last four games. ... Green-Ellis is touchdown-less since the aforementioned Jets game, but remains the best bet for carries and goal-line scores in the Patriots' backfield. "Law Firm" is just a flex option, however, with the Jets' run defense stiffening in recent games.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 20
Monday Night Football
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Adrian Peterson's value has actually risen during the season, which is a rare but welcomed development. Not only has Christian Ponder sparked the Vikings' offense by increasing chain movement and sustaining drives, Peterson is benefiting from expanded usage in the passing game. Peterson capitalized on more targets in Week 8 by hauling in a season-high five receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown at Carolina. The passing plays put him in space, where Peterson's open-field running ability can be put to greater use. On Monday night, it helps Peterson's fantasy matchup that the Packers have struggled all year with backs that catch passes. They've yielded 472 yards on 50 catches to running backs through eight games, good for a five-catch, nearly 60-yard weekly average. ... Percy Harvin had a slow first half of the season, playing limited snaps that were further curbed by a rib injury. Harvin is back to 100 percent after Minnesota's Week 9 bye, and coach Leslie Frazier has pledged to increase his playing time. Harvin can be a legitimate threat for 10 touches per game the rest of the way. If you didn't pick up Denarius Moore or trade for Dez Bryant this week, Harvin is an excellent value target for the fantasy stretch run.
A stiff, straight-line wide receiver, Michael Jenkins has topped 45 yards in just 2-of-8 games this season. For a player with such a limited talent level, we need to see sustained production before even considering betting on him in a fantasy league. Usually, the consistency never comes. ... Ponder's target distribution since replacing Donovan McNabb: Jenkins 14, Visanthe Shiancoe 13, Devin Aromashodu 13, Harvin 10. With Harvin now healthy, the rest of the Vikings' pass catchers should be considered hands-off fantasy commodities. ... Ponder has decent two-quarterback league potential because he's entrenched as the starter the rest of the way, is athletic enough to bolster his fantasy value with rushing stats, and now has his top receiver back at 100%. Green Bay's defense has been big on creating turnovers this season, but is allowing lots of yardage and touchdowns.
Unless they dial up a season-best game with the pass rush, the Vikings simply aren't equipped to slow Green Bay's roll. Minnesota doesn't match up well in this game. The Vikes can stop the run (No. 5 ranking) but not the pass (No. 30), and even the most casual observer is aware that Green Bay's greatest strength is the passing game. Aaron Rodgers has a 23:3 TD-to-INT ratio in his last six home games, including two rushing scores. ... The Vikings are expected to get back Antoine Winfield from a neck injury on Monday night, but they typically use him to cover the slot when opponents go three-wide. Burnable Cedric Griffin and Asher Allen play outside cornerback in the nickel. Split end Greg Jennings notoriously abuses Griffin, racking up lines of 7-147-1, 7-152-3, 6-74-1, and 8-88-1 in his last four meetings with Minnesota. ... While Jennings is the No. 6 wideout in fantasy points per game, flanker Jordy Nelson ranks No. 11 despite seeing just over five targets a week. Atoning with playmaking ability, Nelson is averaging a career-high 19.7 yards per reception and is on pace for ten touchdowns.
Coming out of their Week 8 bye, the Packers made a concerted effort to get Jermichael Finley more involved. Rodgers threw Finley's way on three of his first six pass attempts at San Diego, and Finley ultimately capitalized with five catches, 44 yards, and a touchdown. Finley has scored in each of his last two meetings with the Vikings and is the best second-half tight end trade target in fantasy football. ... James Jones has been targeted six times in the Packers' last three games. He has caught all six, but the efficiency is likely to decrease and his week-to-week role isn't significant enough for fantasy reliability. ... Green Bay did emerge from its bye giving James Starks 14 touches compared to Ryan Grant's four, but the Packers are continuing to use the run game on change-of-pace plays only. Neither Starks nor Grant is likely to have per-play success against a Vikings defense that ranks fifth in the league against the run and is permitting just 3.81 YPC. Starks is a very low-end flex option and Grant won't be usable barring a Starks injury.
Score Prediction: Packers 29, Vikings 20
1:00PM ET Games
Buffalo @ Dallas
Miles Austin will miss 2-4 games with a right hamstring strain, the leg opposite the hamstring that cost him practice time in August and three weeks earlier this season. Dez Bryant stands to benefit as Dallas' clear No. 1 receiver during an upcoming string of favorable matchups. Three of the Cowboys' next four opponents rank in the bottom eight against the pass, beginning with the No. 25 Bills in Week 10. Bryant leads Dallas in targets over the past month, and Tony Romo has re-found his stroke after an early-year rib injury, no longer needing painkillers to play on Sundays. Perhaps fantasy football's finest second-half trade target, Bryant is headed for a breakout finish. ... Bryant was battling a quad injury at the time, but it's worth noting that Jason Witten led Dallas in receiving (14-154-1) and targets (19) when Austin missed Weeks 3-4. Austin, by nature, is a possession receiver, and Witten is now Dallas' best possession threat left. In their last six games, the Bills have surrendered 33 receptions for 449 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends, good for nearly a six-catch, 75-yard weekly average. Bryant is the best bet to lead the Cowboys in receiving yards this Sunday, but Witten is the favorite for receptions. They're both must-starts.
Chris Wesseling recommended Laurent Robinson as this week's top waiver pickup at receiver. Robinson will be an every-down player in Austin's absence, primarily playing outside at flanker. Though he barely knew Dallas' offense at the time after signing on September 20, Robinson racked up 15 targets in Austin's two missed games earlier in the year. Since, Robinson has become a staple in the Cowboys' receiver rotation with touchdowns in back-to-back games and over 100 yards in two of the last five. Robinson will be a worthwhile WR3 until Austin gets back. ... Now past the rib injury, Romo displayed improved pocket presence in Week 9 against Seattle, particularly in the final two quarters. He connected with Witten on a pair of deep seam routes for long gains, the first for a 33-yard touchdown and the second for 23 on a third-and-six play. Like Bryant, Romo has an incredibly favorable schedule for the next month. He's going to get hot. ... DeMarco Murray is earning more trust from the Cowboys every week. Generating Jerry Jones' comparisons to Eric Dickerson, Murray is now averaging 170 total yards and 8.47 YPC in three starts. He's also playing more on passing downs. Felix Jones (ankle) won't return as better than a change-of-pace/third-down back, and it won't be this week. The Bills rank 20th against the run, permit 4.62 yards per carry, and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the AFC.
I'm taking the over on Vegas' projected 48 points for Buffalo-Dallas. The Cowboys will again be minus top CB Mike Jenkins (hamstring), and Ryan Fitzpatrick's quick release will pose matchup problems for a defense that relies heavily on sack production. Fitzpatrick has taken just eight sacks, 33rd most in the league. This isn't to call Fitz a fantasy starter, but I'd feel good about him in two-QB settings and his pass catchers' chances of recording adequate stat lines in a sleeper shootout game. ... Donald Jones' return from an ankle injury is positive news for David Nelson, because it moves him back into the slot. Nelson led all Bills receivers in Week 9 targets and has 50 on the year to rank second on the team. Nelson offers limited week-to-week upside because he's not a featured player in a spread-the-wealth offense, but he'll continue to be on the WR3 radar. Look for Nelson (6'5/220) to match up often with Orlando Scandrick (5'10/191) on Sunday. ... Fitzpatrick's weak arm won't be deterred in the comfortable confines of JerryWorld Stadium, which figures to be enclosed for this game. It's good news for Stevie Johnson, who beat Darrelle Revis for 84 yards last week and has a much friendlier Week 10 matchup with Terence Newman.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jones played 58-of-59 snaps in Week 10, confirming that he's over his high ankle sprain. Jones was targeted just four times, however, securing one for six yards. Jones may have a couple of decent games down the stretch, but they'll be impossible to predict. He's prone to getting stuck running clear-out routes ala Lee Evans in Chan Gailey's offense last season. ... Dallas opened the year playing run-tough defense, but has sprung leaks of late. Seahawks and Eagles rushers have touched up the Cowboys for 401 yards and three scores on 68 carries (5.90 YPC) over the last two games. Perhaps ILB Sean Lee's return will help, but he's playing with a cracked, dislocated wrist. No. 2 fantasy back Fred Jackson should be used confidently. ... You know the drill with Scott Chandler by now. He's scored a TD in four games this season. In the other four, Chandler has seven catches combined for 33 yards. Good luck. ... C.J. Spiller has lost his part-time slot receiver job with Jones back, and Spiller's lone two Week 9 touches came when Jackson was nursing a short-lived "stinger" at the start of the second half. Spiller played 5-of-59 snaps (8.5%) and has no fantasy appeal without an F-Jax injury. ... Naaman Roosevelt can also be returned to waiver wires as the No. 5 or 6 option in Buffalo's passing game.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Bills 24
Tennessee @ Carolina
The Panthers appeared to turn away from DeAngelo Williams and toward Jonathan Stewart before their Week 9 bye, giving J-Stew 27 carries in Weeks 7-8 compared to 17 for D-Will. The off week should have kept the coaches' lean in Stewart's direction, because the per-play stats and game tape are heavily in his favor. Stewart also now has nine red-zone touches to Williams' three since Week 5. If I had to pick one running back to target for pre-fantasy deadline trades, it would be Jonathan Stewart. He's going to lead this backfield in carries and catches, and the Panthers face just two defenses ranked higher than 24th against the run in their final eight games. The Titans are No. 24. ... Having failed to top 3.7 YPC in three straight games, Williams has reached "handcuff" status in fantasy leagues. He's simply not usable with one touchdown on the season and an average of 53 total yards a week. ... In their last five games, the Titans have allowed 30 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends. It's weekly average of 6-72-1. Greg Olsen is a top-nine tight end in fantasy points per game, and this is a favorable matchup.
Throw out a Week 8 date with Curtis Painter, and Tennessee has allowed opposing QBs to complete 64-of-96 passes (66.7%) for 741 yards (7.72 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and one interception in their last three games. This is a favorable matchup for both Cam Newton and Steve Smith, who are locked in as every-week fantasy starters. ... Brandon LaFell is worth picking up in 14- and 16-team leagues in hopes that the Carolina coaching staff increased his role during the bye. He's been an inconsistently-used part-time receiver to this point, but has significantly more playmaking ability than "starter" Legedu Naanee. LaFell is averaging 16.2 yards per reception with two touchdowns on the season, compared to no scores and a 10.9 average for Naanee. Per Pro Football Focus, LaFell has not dropped a pass since Week 1, while Naanee has two drops in the last five games. Neither is a Week 10 fantasy option, of course, but LaFell at least has potential.
I re-watched all 14 of Chris Johnson's Week 9 runs, and I still think his struggles are a matter of effort. Johnson has no interest in grinding out tough yardage inside the tackles, and was a total non-factor in the final two quarters with nine yards on five second-half rushing attempts. Earlier in the season, I surmised that Johnson's explosion was gone. I'm now convinced that his heart isn't in it. Perhaps a date with Carolina's No. 27 run defense will provide Johnson more lanes and long-run chances, but I still wouldn't feel comfortable considering him more than a flex option. Be it consciously or subconsciously, Johnson has thrown in the towel. ... Javon Ringer has a limited skill level, struggling to make defenders miss and almost never breaking into the open field. He hits the hole with considerably more ferocity than Johnson, but received only five Week 9 touches and is averaging 3.41 yards per carry on the season. Ringer is an RB4. ... Jared Cook missed practices with a knee injury this week, which won't help his chances of playing more on Sunday. In Week 9, he played 33-of-69 offensive downs (47.8%) and lost a fumble to seal the Titans' loss.
There's not much reason for optimism in the Titans' passing game. Nate Washington figures to match up often with Panthers top CB Chris Gamble, who's been a legit shutdown cornerback this season. Washington is also coming off a hip injury. Look elsewhere. ... Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins have traded off weeks leading Tennessee in receiving. Of course, neither has more than 63 yards in either game. Both offer little upside, though Williams remains the slightly better fantasy bet. ... Matt Hasselbeck is the No. 26 fantasy quarterback in points per game over the last five weeks (The post-Britt era). He's a QB2 against Carolina's 13th-ranked pass defense.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Titans 21
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Saints-Falcons has Sunday's highest over/under with 50 projected points in a pick-'em game. Shy not from this one. ... Both Atlanta wideouts should be locked into fantasy lineups, but it's worth wondering if Julio Jones might overtake Roddy White to be Matt Ryan's preferred option down the stretch. In Jones' last three full games played, he leads Atlanta in receptions (20) and yards (373), and is coming off a 164-total yard, two-score destruction of Indianapolis. White still comfortably paces the Falcons in targets, but has exhibited decreased explosiveness en route to a career-low 11.7 yards per catch. Jones is riding a 17.5-yard clip. ... White has been held to an average of 3.3 receptions for 51 yards in his last three meetings with New Orleans. As the Falcons' flanker, he has a tougher Week 10 matchup than Jones. White will spend the majority of this game in LCB Jabari Greer's coverage. Jones will face off with a combination of RCB Patrick Robinson and slot CB Leigh Torrence with Tracy Porter (neck, chest) out for Sunday's game. ... Red-zone scores can keep Tony Gonzalez's fantasy value afloat, but he's slowing down with a 43.5-yard average since Week 2. Gonzalez ranks 16th among tight ends in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks.
In his last three games against the Saints, Matt Ryan has completed 53-of-101 passes (52.5%) for 665 yards (6.58 YPA), four touchdowns, and three interceptions. A shootout may buoy Ryan's Week 10 numbers, but that's two-QB league production. ... While Michael Turner will have a hard time running strong for the season's duration with so much wear on his tires, he has a favorable matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing the league's highest yards-per-carry average (5.33). Long term, keep in mind that Turner has led the NFL in rushing attempts in two of the past three seasons, ranks fifth in carries per game this year, and turns 30 in three months. His legs petered out late in 2010, averaging 3.42 YPC in the final four games despite facing a string of weak run defenses. A year older now, Turner's demise could happen sooner. Owners should start shopping him around before fantasy trade deadlines. ... Jacquizz Rodgers received a season-high 11 touches in Week 9, but seven came after Atlanta had already built a 28-7 fourth-quarter lead in a blowout win over the 0-9 Colts. It's almost certainly not a sign of things to come. Rodgers isn't a recommended late-year stash because he'd share time with Jason Snelling if Turner went down.
The Saints attacked the Bucs with a smash-mouth approach in Week 9, only using three-receiver sets on 27-of-64 snaps (42.2%) and finishing with a 28:36 run-to-pass ratio. It was obviously out of character for a team that leads the NFL in pass attempts, and game planned specifically for a Tampa defense that can't stop the run. I would therefore struggle to hold Marques Colston (5-52) and Drew Brees' (258 yards, two touchdowns) relatively mediocre stats against them. Whereas the Bucs' weakness was run stoppage, the opposite can be said for the Falcons' defense. Atlanta ranks seventh against the run, compared to 19th against the pass. ... Brees has averaged 40 pass attempts per game in his last four matchups with the Falcons, completing 121-of-160 throws (75.6%) for 1,271 yards (7.94 YPA), and nine touchdowns. In terms of yardage, it's a per-game average of 318. ... Brees' updated target distribution since Colston returned from his Week 1 collarbone fracture to become a full-time receiver in Week 6: Jimmy Graham 34, Darren Sproles 30, Colston 29, Lance Moore 19, Devery Henderson 11, Robert Meachem 8. ... Henderson and Meachem have become almost total non-factors and can safely be sent to fantasy waiver wires.
On pace for 11 all-purpose touchdowns and 1,410 total yards, Sproles has settled in as an every-week flex regardless of format. He's a perfect fit for this offense. ... Jimmy Graham leads all tight ends in targets (82), receptions (55), yards (791), and standard league fantasy points. Matchups don't matter anymore. ... Moore has a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, but his targets and snaps are too inconsistent for comfort. He's a dicey WR3/flex. ... As for the Saints' running backs behind Sproles, it's ideally a fantasy situation to avoid because of the role uncertainty and tough matchup. They aren’t playing the Bucs anymore. Pierre Thomas is at least healthy. Mark Ingram (heel) and Chris Ivory (hamstring) were both limited in practice all week and are questionable to play against Atlanta.
UPDATE: Ingram is listed as probable and Ivory questionable. In his first game back after a two-week heel (Achilles?) injury, Ingram would be a very shaky fantasy play in a tough matchup. Ivory is not expected to be active for the game.
Score Prediction: Saints 31, Falcons 23
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Houston @ Tampa Bay
Ben Tate has over 100 yards in two of Houston's last three games, both coming in blowout wins over Tennessee (41-7) and Cleveland (30-12). In each case, the Texans jumped out to a two-score lead and were able to rack up rushing attempts with their backup tailback. Only four of Tate's 12 carries occurred in the first half last week, though he took them for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. As to whether Tate will stay in the rotation when games are still in doubt, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said Wednesday that it'll be determined based on in-game "feel." Added Gary Kubiak after last week's win, "It's fun to watch right now. It's almost like a competition because they just go back and forth." This still creates a difficult situation for fantasy leaguers, because in all likelihood Tate won't get the ball much unless Houston is spanking its opponent -- an unpredictable scenario. For owners dying to use Tate, this matchup should be as good as any. The Bucs rank 26th against the run and have lost DT Gerald McCoy for the season to a torn bicep. In McCoy's previous two missed games this season, Tampa Bay was dismantled by Saints and Bears running backs for 233 yards and three touchdowns on 31 rushing attempts (7.52 YPC). Arian Foster will obviously burn this defense, and it's conceivable that Tate will, too.
Kubiak is calling Andre Johnson (hamstring) a "weekend decision," but he isn't going to play until after the Week 11 bye. ... Owen Daniels' production has been in the gutter because Houston is destroying defenses with the run. In their last three games -- all wins by two scores or more -- the Texans have compiled a 125:76 run-to-pass ratio. Houston leads the league in rushing attempts, and it's not close. Here is Matt Schaub's updated target distribution with Johnson out for the last five games: Jacoby Jones 31, Daniels 29, Kevin Walter 28, Derrick Mason 8. Daniels, Jones, and Walter are all in the rather awkward position of needing their opponents to play better in order to produce at a worthwhile rate. Make sense? ... Schaub is effectively managing games, turning the ball over just twice with only two sacks taken during Houston's dominant, three-game win streak. The Bucs are 28th against the pass, but the Texans will almost certainly employ another run-dominated game plan Sunday, attempting to impose their will with Foster and possibly Tate. It's been the case all season and has not changed: Schaub is a borderline, low-ceiling fantasy starter.
The Texans rank first in total defense, second against the pass, and fourth against the run. In a game that the Bucs could easily lose the time-of-possession battle in a lopsided manner, there isn't a single confident fantasy starter on Tampa Bay's side. ... Josh Freeman is showing no signs of turning his season around, compiling an 8:10 TD-to-INT ratio with just one 300-yard effort through eight games this season. Freeman has thrown for 300 yards only twice in 33 career starts. ... LeGarrette Blount's every-down back audition failed in Week 9, so he will continue to need the Bucs to stay competitive or have the lead in games to generate substantial fantasy stats. On the season, Blount is averaging 11 touches for 53.3 yards without a touchdown when Tampa loses (three-game sample). In Tampa's three wins with Blount in the lineup, he's scored three touchdowns and is averaging 21 touches for 102 yards. Start Blount if you think the Bucs can get a lead in this game. ... Mike Williams is coming off a thigh injury and a season-low snap percentage. He's also likely to receive the Johnathan Joseph treatment. He's a low-end WR3. ... Preston Parker has struggled against man-coverage defenses this season, and the Texans play a lot of man. ... Arrelious Benn has now been out-produced by Dezmon Briscoe in two games straight. From a fantasy perspective, Benn and Briscoe are canceling each other out.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Bucs 17
St. Louis @ Cleveland
Rams-Browns has Week 10's lowest over/under, so avoid this game where possible. ... Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty's (calf) injuries have forced Chris Ogbonnaya into the starting lineup, and he's promptly overtaken Chris Johnson and Marshawn Lynch as the worst running back in football. Ogbonnaya has 65 yards and two fumbles on 24 carries (2.71 YPC) in his last two games. The Rams' run-defense ranking still looks bad, but they've held far the more skilled backs of Arizona and New Orleans to a combined 32 rushing attempts for 89 yards (2.78 average) over the past two weeks. Ogbonnaya has entered rare must-not-start territory. He’s fantasy trash. ... Greg Little is still being heavily targeted -- he led Cleveland with eight in Week 9 -- but the Browns may soon have to turn away from him. Little has simply failed to capitalize on his opportunity, dropping six passes over the last five games with two drops apiece in Weeks 8 and 9. The Rams' pass defense obviously presents a favorable matchup, but Little is playing far too poorly to be trusted in fantasy leagues. In my own league, I dropped Little last week to stash Kendall Hunter for the stretch run. Even at his peak this year, Little has bobbled WR3/4 value. He's not going to suddenly turn into a legit fantasy starter.
Even in perhaps the best matchup they'll get all year, there isn't another Cleveland pass catcher worthy of Week 10 consideration in standard fantasy leagues. Colt McCoy's target distribution since the Week 5 bye: Little 38, Joshua Cribbs 19, Ben Watson 17, Evan Moore 13, Mohamed Massaquoi 10, Jordan Norwood 7. ... Massaquoi's lingering concussion problems are notable for return-yardage leaguers because Cribbs will get another start. ... Watson is scoreless with a 32.5-yard average since Week 4. ... The Rams have allowed the fourth most passing scores in football with a 15:6 TD-to-INT ratio against. Colt McCoy is still a two-QB league option only with 18-24 MPH winds in the Sunday forecast for Browns Stadium. McCoy's weak arm has held Cleveland's passing offense hostage this season, and it's not going to get better with the weather worsening.
The Browns opened the season playing respectable run defense, but the unit is collapsing with first-round DT Phil Taylor hitting a rookie wall. Pro Football Focus has graded Taylor negatively in back-to-back games. It's no coincidence, then, that 49ers and Texans backs have run rampant on the Browns during that span, piling up three rushing scores and 421 yards on 71 carries (5.93 YPC) in Weeks 8-9. On the other side, Steven Jackson is piping hot with a 133-total yard average, 5.06 yards-per-carry clip, and three touchdowns over the past month. Cleveland will have lots of trouble stopping him. ... Accuracy is Sam Bradford's calling card, but he was clearly out of sync with his receivers in Week 9 after barely getting in any practice time while nursing a two-week high ankle sprain. In charting Bradford's throws at Arizona, I considered 17-of-36 (47.2%) to be inaccurate -- either too far ahead of or behind Bradford's intended target, or off the mark entirely. That percentage will rise on a weekly basis as Bradford gets healthier and practices more with Brandon Lloyd, but he'll be a very low-end QB2 against Cleveland's top-ranked pass defense.
Here is the Rams' target distribution since Lloyd was acquired: Lloyd 38, Greg Salas 17, Brandon Gibson 11, Austin Pettis and Danario Alexander 6, Lance Kendricks 5. ... Bradford targeted Lloyd 13 times in his Week 9 return, just narrowly missing mammoth gains on several play-action bomb attempts. There's no question that playcaller Josh McDaniels has made sure to feature Lloyd in the passing game. Lloyd plays the vast majority of his snaps on the offensive left side, so he'll mostly avoid LCB Joe Haden's coverage if the Browns don't use a shadow technique. I suspect they will, but it's not a guarantee and would consider Lloyd a WR2 regardless. After this game, the Rams don't face a pass defense ranked in the top 17 until Week 15. Lloyd is headed for a hot run. ... Pettis will replace Salas (fractured fibula) as St. Louis' slot receiver the rest of the way and should be owned in all PPR leagues. Bradford loves to check it down to slot receivers, targeting Danny Amendola more than any Rams pass catcher last season and Pettis and Salas a combined 11 times in Week 9. Pettis doesn't have a whole lot of big-play ability, but will be a safe bet for 5-7 weekly receptions. ... Alexander is the Rams' other starter, but has missed the last two games with a hamstring strain. Gibson has filled in with seven receptions for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Gibson struggles to create separation and hasn't found the end zone since Week 3.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Browns 16
Washington @ Miami
Roy Helu was installed as Washington's every-down tailback in Week 9 (64-of-67 snaps played), and the fourth-round rookie promptly totaled 146 yards on 24 touches while setting the Redskins' franchise record with 14 receptions. Helu can't be counted on for double-digit catches each week, but John Beck has shown enough check-down tendencies for Helu to maintain RB2 status in PPR leagues so long as he keeps the job. 31 of Beck's 131 passes (23.7%) on the year have targeted running backs. The Skins are throwing 37 times a game, so if the percentage holds the backs can expect roughly nine targets per week. Just be aware that Washington may have the league's toughest remaining run defense schedule. Here's a look: @ MIA, vs. DAL, @ SEA, vs. NYJ, vs. NE, @ NYG, vs. MIN (Week 16). Helu is unlikely to have much rushing success, rendering his fantasy value far greater in leagues that award points for receptions. In their last four games, the Dolphins have allowed 359 yards on 102 carries (3.52 YPC) to enemy tailbacks, none of whom has scored. ... Here's the rest of Beck's target distribution among at least somewhat relevant fantasy players: Fred Davis 28, Jabar Gaffney 22, Terrence Austin 15, Leonard Hankerson 10.
Despite the Skins' poor passing attack, the fact that Davis is the clear No. 1 option makes him an every-week fantasy starter. In terms of points per game, Davis is the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end. ... Gaffney complained about his role following last week's four-catch, 40-yard performance, primarily because Beck refuses to even make an attempt at a vertical passing attack. Per Pro Football Focus, just 14 of Beck's 131 throws this season have traveled further than 20 yards downfield. He's completed three. Even as a possession receiver, Gaffney will have a hard time generating worthwhile fantasy production. He's a WR5, and favorable matchups don't make much of a difference. ... Hankerson's role has increased by the week. The third-round rookie played two snaps in Week 7, ten in Week 8, and was promoted into a starting job in Week 9, playing 68-of-69 offensive downs. Hankerson has considerably more big-play ability than Gaffney. If you're dying to use a Redskins wideout against Miami's No. 27 pass defense, Hankerson would be your best bet.
Reggie Bush has done his best to earn Miami's feature back job with 262 total yards and a 6.96 YPC average over the last two games, but he will be difficult to rely on for consistently substantial workloads with Daniel Thomas healthy. Getting wins isn't going to be the organization's priority in the season's second half, and Bush probably won't be a Dolphin in 2012 with $4.75 million due to him in salary and bonuses. The coaches have always preferred Thomas between the tackles, and he has the potential to be the club's long-term bell-cow runner. In all likelihood, this will be a 50:50 carry split going forward. Off the injury report after battling a nagging hamstring pull during the first nine weeks, Thomas is still the better stretch-run fantasy hold. Both are flex options only against Washington's top-12 run defense. ... It's fair to wonder if Davone Bess is in coach Tony Sparano's doghouse. Sparano publicly questioned the slot receiver's study habits leading up to Week 9, and Bess proceeded to play a season-low nine snaps in the 31-3 win. Perhaps Bess' playing time died only because he plays on passing downs and Miami had fewer of them due to the lead, but it's certainly still a concerning situation for fantasy owners. Rookie Clyde Gates played just as much.
Matt Moore played his best game since the end of the 2009 season in Week 9, completing 17-of-23 passes for 244 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. Moore capitalized on near-perfect pass protection from Miami's O-Line, which held Kansas City without a sack. Whereas the Chiefs rank 21st in pass defense and last in the NFL in sacks, the Redskins are third in sacks and 11th in pass defense. This is a significantly tougher matchup, and I'd be far more inclined to chalk up Moore's big game to a fluke than bet it continues. ... Moore resumed peppering Brandon Marshall with footballs against the Chiefs, targeting him a team-high 11 times. Marshall secured eight for 106 yards and a TD. Now on pace for 92 catches and 1,288 yards, Marshall is a top-15 fantasy receiver in standard scoring and 13th in PPR. In their last four games, the Skins are allowing an average of six receptions for 90 yards to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. It doesn't hurt that both of the Redskins' safeties, LaRon Landry (Achilles) and O.J. Atogwe (knee), are questionable to play.
Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Dolphins 17
Arizona @ Philadelphia
Coming off a let-down loss to the Bears, the Eagles' passing game should be quickly remedied by a Cardinals defense that has been destroyed all season by vertical passing attacks. Joe Flacco, Rex Grossman, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning have all dropped 290 or more yards on Arizona, which combines a mediocre pass rush with a secondary that lets wideouts and tight ends run freely through the back end as often as any defense in football. No NFC team has given up more 20-yard pass plays, and the Cards rank in the bottom ten in passing yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating allowed. DeSean Jackson has been quiet more often than not this year, clearing 50 receiving yards in just 5-of-8 games. He couldn't ask for a better slump buster. Jackson has the Eagles' second most targets since their Week 7 bye, so it isn't as if Michael Vick has stopped trying. ... Speaking of targets, Brent Celek leads Philadelphia with 27 in the last three games. He appears to have overtaken slot receiver Jason Avant (12 targets) as Vick's preferred option over the middle, capitalizing on improved pass protection that frees Celek up from blocking. Celek has limited talent and is averaging just 10 yards a catch, but at least based on recent games, it wouldn't be fair to characterize him as the Eagles' No. 4 passing-game option anymore.
Jeremy Maclin is coming off a slow game in the 30-24 loss to Chicago, but is still on pace to finish as a top-ten fantasy receiver. He leads the Eagles in receptions (44), receiving yards (606), and receiving touchdowns (4), all by healthy margins. ... Like Jackson, Maclin, and Celek, Vick has a favorable Week 10 matchup. Arizona is too slow at outside linebacker to contain Vick when he breaks the pocket, and gets burned relentlessly by deep shots. ... The Cardinals eked out a Week 9 win over the Rams, but in the process were gutted by the Steven Jackson-Cadillac Williams running back duo for 147 yards on 32 carries (4.59 YPC). Ray Rice touched up Arizona for three touchdowns the week before. Leading the NFL in rushing yards per game, rushing scores, and non-passing touchdowns, LeSean McCoy is about as confident a Week 10 fantasy play as it gets.
If I'm alive in an Eliminator, there isn't a Week 10 team I'd feel better about than the Eagles. The box score doesn't do justice to how poorly John Skelton played against the Rams. In terms of giving receivers run-after-catch chances, Skelton's ball placement is a major work in progress, even if his pocket poise and arm are upgrades on injured starter Kevin Kolb's. In my Week 9 game review, I charted 17 of Skelton's 35 passes (48.5%) as "inaccurate" -- either too far ahead of or behind his intended target, or totally off the mark. Skelton showed zero awareness on back-to-back third-quarter safeties, nearly fumbling the ball away on a James Hall sack, and standing carelessly in the end zone after a short scramble on the second. Skelton has a long way to go. ... To his credit, somewhat, Skelton peppered Larry Fitzgerald with a team-high 12 targets, of which Fitz secured four for 43 yards and a game-tying touchdown that sent the game to overtime. The Cards are doing a commendable job of keeping Fitzgerald roaming around the formation so that defenses have a tougher time keying up to stop him. He has at least 78 receiving yards and or a touchdown in six of the last seven games. Fitzgerald should see plenty of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Joselio Hanson in this one to make up for his time against Nnamdi Asomugha.
Andre Roberts has now posted the two highest yardage totals of his career (5-110-1, 5-55) in starts by Skelton. This may be relevant news for deep leaguers. ... The Cardinals are using a shotgun-heavy, four- and five-receiver offense with Skelton at the helm, similar to the system he played in at Fordham. It translated to slot receiver Early Doucet playing 35-of-59 downs in Week 9, his second highest snap rate (59.3%) of the season. Doucet is averaging over five catches for 55 yards with two touchdowns in his last four games and will continue to be the second best bet for receiving production in Arizona. As a slot receiver, he's got a better matchup than both Fitz and Roberts in this game. Doucet won't tangle with Asomugha or Asante Samuel. ... Beanie Wells is dealing with what is believed to be loose cartilage in his right knee, the same knee on which Wells had meniscus surgery last preseason. Still running hard and playing his heart out, Wells showed no ability to get the edge or accelerate through oncoming defenders against St. Louis. The Cardinals would probably do Wells a service by holding him out for a game or two, but coach Ken Whisenhunt has been clear that there are no plans to do that. It leaves fantasy owners in a bind, because Wells is so difficult to bench against terrible run defenses like the Rams and Eagles'.
Score Prediction: Eagles 37, Cardinals 17
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Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Passing-game production will be tough to come by for the Colts in this one. Jacksonville ranks eighth against the pass and has surrendered the NFL's second fewest 20-plus yard completions, preventing long bombs with a strict Cover-2 zone. The Jags have held Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez all to 200 passing yards or fewer, and Curtis Painter is far worse than all of the above. Tanking over the past month, Painter has completed 71-of-127 passes (55.9%) for 603 yards (4.75 YPA) in his last four games, with a 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio and sixth turnover on a lost fumble. With a quarterback playing terribly in an unfavorable matchup, expectations have to be low for Indy's receivers. ... Jacob Tamme will replace Dallas Clark (leg) as the Colts' slot tight end for the foreseeable future, maybe the rest of the season. Tamme was targeted a team-high seven times in Week 9, although two of them came via Dan Orlovsky after Painter was benched in the fourth quarter. An ordinary talent whose 2010 numbers were inflated by Peyton Manning's extremely efficient aggressiveness, Tamme may post a decent game or two down the stretch, but will almost certainly be unreliable in a passing "attack" that doesn't generate enough yards and touchdowns to support a single stable fantasy receiver, let alone a newcomer.
Painter's updated target distribution among wide receivers this season: Pierre Garcon 53, Reggie Wayne 43, Austin Collie 30. ... Garcon is still the best fantasy bet of the bunch, but his stats have circled the drain along with Painter's over the past month, averaging 43 yards during that span without a touchdown. Garcon is quickly losing WR3 appeal. ... Wayne has been nearly as bad, failing to find pay dirt since the opener and averaging 46 yards in the last four games. In his contract year, Wayne is playing like he knows this lost season will be his last in Indianapolis. ... For the second straight game in Week 9, Joseph Addai (hamstring, knee) was active but did not play. The Colts have had a different player lead the team in rushing in each of the last three games, and none of them is Addai. Fantasy owners' best option is to simply look elsewhere. Not helping matters is the fact that the Jags' front seven is fresh off a bye after holding Arian Foster and Ray Rice to a combined 140 yards on 41 carries (3.41 YPC) in their previous two games.
Indianapolis is getting slaughtered by the pass, but not even the friendliest matchup possible can spark Jacksonville's passing "offense." Blaine Gabbert shouldn't be playing. In his last five starts, the top-ten pick has completed an unthinkably poor 62-of-146 throws (42.5%) for 716 yards (4.90 YPA) with four touchdowns and five turnovers. No Jaguar has exceeded 63 receiving yards since Week 5. Jason Hill is the definition of a tease, and Marcedes Lewis is just barely a top-40 tight end. Yes, top forty. He's 39th in scoring at the position. ... These are Mike Thomas' three career stat lines against the Colts: 3-63, 5-68-0, 2-20-1. Indianapolis' smallish defense matches up well with little slot receiver types. Thomas is 60th in fantasy scoring among wideouts, so move along. ... His legs fresh after a Week 8 bye, Maurice Jones-Drew remains the Jags' best option for ball movement. Jones-Drew has 12 touchdowns in 10 career matchups with the Colts. He's also averaging 5.16 yards per carry in those games, and Indy's run defense is as bad as it's ever been.
Score Prediction: Colts 16, Jaguars 10
Denver @ Kansas City
Tim Tebow has been a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2-of-3 starts and is averaging 20 standard league points per game. In Week 9, Tebow ranked third behind only Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. Safe from an in-game benching after leading Denver to a 2-1 record thus far, Tebow will continue to be a high-upside QB1 at Arrowhead. If he holds this job for the season's duration, I'd be willing to guarantee Tebow will be a top-ten quarterback the rest of the way. This is a particularly favorable matchup for Tebow because the Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in sacks. ... Maybe just to keep the Raiders guessing, the Broncos didn't come out running a read-option offense in Week 9. Tebow took seven of his first 13 snaps from center, and save for two early QB keepers, it wasn't until the second half that the Urban Meyer-like spread morphed into Denver's base attack. In the final two quarters, the Broncos ran 19 plays out of the shotgun compared to nine from center. All told, they racked up 316 yards and three touchdowns on 39 offensive snaps from the 'gun (8.18-yard average) compared to 90 yards and one TD on 19 pro-style plays (4.74 average). Perhaps the read-option is a Wildcat-like fad to which NFL teams will eventually catch up, but for now it's a big-play creating force. Healthy again, feature back Willis McGahee scored a 60-yard touchdown on a third-quarter option run and is a fantasy must-start. In Week 10, he'll take on a Kansas City defense that ranks 19th versus the run and allowed 142 total yards to Reggie Bush last week.
The plight of Denver pass catchers is much different. The Broncos finished Week 9 with a 38:21 run-to-pass ratio, and Tebow has yet to exceed 172 passing yards through three starts. Eric Decker once again appears to be Denver's best bet for targets, but he's proven to be a weekly roll of the dice. Tebow doesn't play favorites in the pass game and is an incredibly inefficient passer, leaving little volume to go around. ... Here is Tebow's target distribution on the season: Decker 22, Eddie Royal 22, Demaryius Thomas 15, Knowshon Moreno 9, Daniel Fells and Matt Willis 7. ... The Broncos' preferred change-of-pace back behind McGahee is Lance Ball, leaving Moreno with a third-down only role. Moreno played 16 snaps in Week 9, while Ball had 13 and McGahee 39.
Some observers may have earmarked Matt Cassel for a Weeks 9 through 11 hot run with three straight matchups against bottom-ten pass defenses, but he couldn't have started it more slowly than last week's miserable effort against Miami. Cassel rarely kept his feet in Week 9, taking five sacks and nine hits while failing to lead a touchdown drive. Cassel's pass protection has been up and down this season, and he just isn't a good quarterback. In his last three games, Cassel is 54-of-101 (53.5%) for 675 yards (6.68 YPA), one touchdown, and five turnovers. After Elvis Dumervil got off the snide with two sacks of Carson Palmer last week, I'd worry that Cassel will again be under heavy duress. He's just a QB2. ... In his last three meetings with Dwayne Bowe, Bailey has held Kansas City's No. 1 receiver to lines of 0-0, 1-6, and 13-186-2. The outlier occurred when Denver built a 35-0 second-quarter lead in Week 10 of last season, and a playing-hurt Bailey gave Bowe all kinds of cushion. Denver won the game 49-29. Bowe has been too productive in his contract year to bench, but owners need to be aware of Bailey's capability of shutting him down.
The possibility of Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston swapping big games back and forth was mentioned in this space last week. In Week 9, it was Breaston on top (7-115) with Baldwin (1-12) taking a backseat. The week before, Baldwin led the Chiefs with five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown; Breaston managed 42 yards on three scoreless grabs. Breaston is the safer fantasy bet in that he plays more snaps (75-of-84 in Week 9). Baldwin is a part-time player (38 snaps), but has more talent. While both have favorable Week 10 matchups with Bailey likely to shadow Bowe, neither Breaston nor Baldwin should be counted on for consistency. ... Jackie Battle's Week 9 numbers were down because K.C. fell behind 14-3 at the half and was forced into pass-heavy comeback mode. More alarming is Battle's weekly yards-per-carry decline. His YPC average has dipped in four straight games, bottoming out at 2.86 against the Dolphins. Battle maintains low-end RB2/flex appeal for a Week 10 game in which his workload figures to increase, but it's worth remembering that he hasn't been a feature back since college. His body isn't used to this many carries.
Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Camp darling Antonio Brown failed to score or clear 70 yards in each of the first six games, but he's maximizing his opportunity at a larger role. Whereas Brown played 46.7% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in the first month and a half, his snap rate has jumped to 59.8% in the last three games with Hines Ward (ankle/concussion) and Emmanuel Sanders (personal/knee) in and out of the lineup. Brown leads the team in targets during that span with 35 -- the next closest Steeler is Mike Wallace with 27 -- and only Wallace, Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson have scored more fantasy points among wideouts over the last three weeks. Brown is the real deal, and his role will only expand with Sanders rehabbing from in-season knee surgery. ... While Brown has added a new dimension to Pittsburgh's offense, Wallace has a more favorable Week 10 matchup. Brown plays split end in most personnel groupings, lining up to the offense's left side. He'll square off with Bengals top cornerback Leon Hall for the majority of this game, leaving 32-year-old Nate Clements on Wallace. "60 Minutes" will have a clear upperhand when the two go mano-a-mano.
Ward is catch-less since Week 7 with five targets in the last three games. Injuries have plenty to do with it, but he's not a fantasy option. ... Since Week 3, the Bengals have held opposing tight ends to an average of four catches for 40 yards per game, with Dallas Clark scoring the lone touchdown in Week 6 garbage time. Heath Miller is running more pass routes, but this is a tough matchup. ... With no teams on a bye, Ben Roethlisberger is more of a high-end QB2 facing Cincinnati's top-ten pass defense. Bengals DC Mike Zimmer has had Roethlisberger's number recently, holding him to a combined 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio in their last five meetings on 97-of-161 passing (60.2%) for 1,112 yards (6.91 YPA). It's a pedestrian 222.4-yard average. ... With the Steelers leaning on a pass-heavy, spread-type offense that has been much discussed previously in this space, Rashard Mendenhall has three straight games of 16 touches or fewer. While Mendenhall has continued to play well on decreased opportunities, he is an RB2 only at the moment. He's not getting the rock enough, and the Bengals rank first in the AFC in run defense.
The Steelers' 2011 run defense hasn't been the shutdown unit of seasons past, but it's creeping back up the NFL rankings since five-time Pro Bowl NT Casey Hampton returned from a shoulder injury. Whereas Pittsburgh's defense allowed 272 yards and two touchdowns on 67 carries (4.06 YPC) without Hampton in Weeks 5-7, opposing rushers' stats have plummeted to 110 yards and one score on 39 carries (2.81 average) with Hampton in the lineup for Weeks 8-9. The Steelers now rank sixth in the league against the run. Cedric Benson resumed his normal workload coming off suspension last week, seeing 20 carries to change-of-pace back Bernard Scott's six, but this will be a difficult matchup for Cincinnati's feature runner. Benson has averaged 3.13 yards a carry in his last three games, and his downhill, straight-ahead style has never given the Steelers much trouble. Benson has faced Pittsburgh six times in his career, all as a Bengal over the last three seasons. In those games, Benson has never topped 76 rushing yards, managing 258 combined on 79 carries (3.26 YPC). In other words, this is a good week to sit Cedric Benson. ... Jermaine Gresham will apparently return from his hamstring injury in Week 10, but he could easily get stuck as an in-line blocker against James Harrison. Gresham is on pace for under 500 receiving yards.
With Pittsburgh's run defense stiffening and the pass defense playing at an elite level, the Bengals may struggle for ball movement on Sunday. Andy Dalton has proven a pro-ready game manager and Cincinnati is 6-2, but the stats should be kept in perspective. The Bengals' wins have come against teams with a combined 16-33 record (.326), and Dalton has faced just two top-14 pass defenses. The Steelers' defense is easily the best he'll see all season. ... I'll be interested to see whether A.J. Green gets the Ike Taylor treatment this week, and I wouldn't consider it a given because Green is a rookie and Jerome Simpson isn't a slouch. Green's position in the base offense is flanker (RWR); Taylor is an RCB in the base defense. If the Steelers play sides, Green will avoid Taylor's coverage on the heavy majority of snaps. Green is the No. 7 fantasy receiver, so I'd want him in my fantasy lineup every week. ... If anything, the threat of Taylor staying at right corner makes Simpson more risky. I'd look elsewhere for my Week 10 WR3. ... William Gay is the Steelers' weakest defensive back in coverage and plays in the slot when opponents go three-wide. Bengals slot man Andre Caldwell is a worthwhile deep sleeper. Caldwell played 51-of-77 snaps in Week 9 (66.2%) and ranked second on the team with nine targets. With Gresham likely to block more often than not, Caldwell should be open and Dalton's go-to guy over the middle.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
4:05PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Seattle
In a clash of two juggernaut run defenses, the Ravens hold a clear edge because they generate better ball movement than Seattle via the air. Since a painfully slow start, Joe Flacco has a 60.2% completion rate in his last two games and 300-plus yards in each. Flacco isn't a fantasy starter, but his improvement -- even if only incremental -- bodes well for surrounding skill players. ... In terms of pass defense rankings, the Seahawks are in the bottom ten in completion rate and QB rating allowed, and they rank 29th in sacks. Flacco should have time to throw, and Anquan Boldin has a commanding lead among Ravens receivers in targets; his 73 are 19 more than second-place Ed Dickson's. Still looking fresh since Baltimore's Week 5 bye, Boldin is averaging 6.5 catches for over 101 yards in his last four games. Be wary of Boldin slowing down during the stretch run like last year, but he is an every-week WR2 until the slippage begins with added value in PPR leagues. ... I really want to like Torrey Smith. He gets open with more consistency than any other Baltimore wideout and has been a few dropped passes away from back-to-back 100-yard games. Smith may take a playing-time hit when Lee Evans (ankle) returns, but he can have a big day against Seattle's stiff-hipped secondary if he holds onto the ball. Smith separates with ease.
As alluded to above, Dickson is getting a fair amount of looks but isn't capitalizing. He hasn't scored since Week 1 and is averaging 9.2 yards per catch. Seattle has allowed an average of 65 yards to tight ends over the past month, but Dickson simply hasn't been good enough for serious fantasy consideration. ... Seattle's typically run-tough defense sprung a Week 9 leak, getting gashed by Dallas rushers for 163 yards on 29 attempts (5.62 YPC) while giving up another 47 receiving yards to DeMarco Murray. Even with a difficult matchup, Ray Rice is a top-ten fantasy running back. The Ravens should be in scoring position enough for Rice to get ample red-zone opportunities, and he's been too hot for even the NFL's best run defenses to handle in the pass game. Among tailbacks, only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte have more receiving yards this year.
Tarvaris Jackson was the worst quarterback in the league last week, completing 17-of-30 passes for 221 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Coach Pete Carroll has acknowledged that T-Jack's right (throwing) pectoral strain still isn't healed, and it's hard to imagine using him even in a two-QB league against Baltimore's top-five pass defense. ... The Ravens have limited opposing No. 1 receivers to an average of under three catches for 58 yards and one score over the last three games during a stretch that included Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald. It's not promising news for Sidney Rice. ... In Jackson's last three full games played, slot receiver Doug Baldwin has a combined 11 catches for 142 yards and no touchdowns. It'a scoreless average of 35.5 yards on four catches. ... As expected, Big Mike Williams' (3-41) return to the lineup in Week 9 rendered Ben Obomanu (2-6) fantasy obsolete. Obomanu actually got the start, but the two shared time evenly. Williams played 30 snaps; Obomanu 29. It might be the least attractive fantasy situation going. ... I'd say there's about a 98% chance that Marshawn Lynch's 23-135-1 line from Week 9 proves a fantasy tease. The Cowboys' run defense was an absolute sieve without ILB Sean Lee, and Lynch entered the game having exceeded 33 rushing yards just twice in his previous six 2011 appearances. The Ravens have the NFL's third-ranked run defense, permitting 3.35 yards a carry.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Seahawks 13
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4:15PM ET Games
Detroit @ Chicago
The Week 9 bye couldn't have come at a better time for Matthew Stafford, who was nursing knee and ankle injuries before the off week. He's back to 100 percent now. Stafford touched up these same Bears for 219 yards and two touchdowns on 19-of-26 passing (73.1%) in Week 5, seeing a reduction in attempts because Jahvid Best (12-163-1) ran wild on Chicago. Best, of course, won't play this time around, and Stafford's passing volume is certain to rise. The No. 6 overall fantasy quarterback through nine weeks, Stafford is a locked-and-loaded every-week starter. ... In his last six meetings with the Bears, Calvin Johnson has tortured Lovie Smith's Cover-2 defense for 554 yards and four touchdowns on 34 catches, good for a six-catch, 92.3-yard average. ... Brent Celek became the latest tight end to bust Chicago's zone in Week 9, securing an Eagles-high seven catches for 60 yards. Jermichael Finley (7-85-3), Greg Olsen (5-50-1), Brandon Pettigrew (4-39-1), Jimmy Graham (6-79), and Tony Gonzalez (5-72) are the others. The Bears allow more fantasy points to tight ends than any team in football. Pettigrew is a recommended Week 10 play.
Until we see substantive production from the Nate Burleson-Titus Young-Tony Scheffler group, it's going to be hard to believe in any of the three. In the Lions' last game, Scheffler and Young both scored touchdowns, Young's on terribly blown coverage by the Broncos. Scheffler had two catches for 15 scoreless yards the week before, while Young didn't catch a pass and played only 14 offensive snaps. Burleson gets the most playing time of the bunch, but is averaging 15.3 yards per game since Week 2. Someone needs to permanently emerge here in order to become useful, and I'm not sure anyone will. ... The Bears' defense is serving up 5.21 yards per carry on the season, so this would theoretically be a favorable matchup for Lions backs. Here is Detroit's backfield breakdown in touches and yards since Best went down two games ago: Maurice Morris 25-128, Keiland Williams 21-77. Kevin Smith has now been added back into the mix. Morris did score on a goal-line carry before the bye and would be a fantasy owner's best bet, but he's an extremely low-end flex option. Williams and Smith are of zero use in fantasy leagues for Week 10.
NFL teams are 9-3 coming off bye weeks over the past month, while clubs playing after Monday Night Football are 4-6. While the Bears have seemingly turned around their season with three straight victories, this is another awfully tough matchup for Jay Cutler and the passing game. Fresh after the off week, the Lions rank fourth in sacks and sixth in overall pass defense. Tread very lightly when considering starting Cutler in a fantasy league, and his outside receivers (Roy Williams, Devin Hester) remain non-factors. ... Bears slot receiver Earl Bennett had a nice night against Philadelphia in Week 9, but the last time Bennett cleared 90 receiving yards he regressed to 3-53-0, 3-37-0, 1-14-0 lines in his next three games. Bennett is worth PPR consideration, but he's not going to be a fantasy difference maker. ... The Bears would still be far better off attacking the Lions with the run, keeping Stafford and Megatron off the field and targeting the leakiest part of Detroit's defense with Chicago's best player. The Lions rank 28th against the run and are giving up 5.24 yards per rushing attempt. In seven career meetings with the Bears, Matt Forte has six touchdowns and is averaging 129.7 total yards per game. ... Marion Barber can't be trusted for consistent workloads or yardage, but he's at least worth rostering in touchdown-heavy leagues and as a Forte handcuff. Barber has found pay dirt in four of his five appearances this season.
Score Prediction: Lions 21, Bears 20
NY Giants @ San Francisco
Opposing feature backs' stat lines against San Francisco this season: LeSean McCoy 9-18-0, Jahvid Best 12-37-0, LeGarrette Blount 10-34-0, Cedric Benson 17-64-0, Felix Jones 9-25-0, Marshawn Lynch 13-33-0, Roy Helu 10-41-0, Chris Ogbonnaya 11-37-0. Combined, they have a 3.18 YPC average. The 49ers are the lone team left that has yet to allow a rushing score. In other words, Ahmad Bradshaw's (foot) continued inactivity doesn't do much for Brandon Jacobs' fantasy appeal. The Giants will absolutely have to throw to move the chains. ... The Niners aren't nearly as bad in pass defense as their No. 22 ranking suggests, but this game sets up well for Eli Manning to rack up attempts. In his last seven games, Eli has completed 158-of-248 passes (63.7%) for 2,023 yards (8.16 YPA), 15 TDs, and five picks. He's locked in as a QB1. ... When the 49ers line up to adjust for three-receiver sets, LCB Carlos Rogers kicks to the slot with Tarell Brown staying at right cornerback and rookie Chris Culliver on the left. Rogers is playing like a legit shutdown corner in a contract season, and he's going to square off early and often with Victor Cruz. I've always been a big Cruz fan and own him in a Dynasty league, but I would not start him this week.
Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is expected to start and will be in Brown's coverage for most of this game. Brown has been the 49ers' weakest cover man, so get Nicks into your lineup. ... Just like last season, Mario Manningham is poised for a fast finish. He'll match up with the rookie Culliver and is a rock-solid WR2. ... In their last six games, the 49ers have held starting tight ends to just one touchdown and a 42.5-yard weekly average. With no teams on a Week 10 bye, burly Giants starter Jake Ballard will safely resume TE2 status. He may have to block Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith for much of Sunday. Smith has 6.5 sacks over his last five games.
In LE Justin Tuck's four games played this season, the G-Men have allowed opposing tailbacks to rush for 389 yards and two scores on 91 carries (4.27 YPC). In four games without Tuck, running backs have 94 attempts for 472 yards (5.02 average) and six rushing touchdowns. This matchup isn't quite as favorable for Frank Gore as New York's No. 25 run-defense ranking indicates, but it isn't prohibitive, either. ... The Giants have been far tougher in pass than run defense all year, racking up a league-high 28 sacks and allowing only nine passing touchdowns while intercepting ten throws. The Niners had better hope they don't have to throw much on Sunday, something coach Jim Harbaugh has been averse to anyway because his quarterback is Alex Smith. This is a difficult matchup for Michael Crabtree and Braylon Edwards, and Smith is no better than a low-end QB2. ... Because of the Giants' NFL-best pass rush, I'd be concerned that Vernon Davis could get stuck on the line blocking in this game. Glass-half full fantasy owners can note that the Giants gave up 12 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns to Patriots tight ends last week.
Score Prediction: Giants 20, 49ers 14
Sunday Night Football
New England @ NY Jets
Patriots-Jets games are always difficult to predict because the teams specifically game plan for each other. It's not a situation where Bill Belichick or Rex Ryan approaches the matchup thinking, "We're going to do what we do, and see if they can stop us." Each side caters its personnel groupings and playcalls to attack areas it deems the opponent's weakness. Believe it or not, this is rare around the stubborn, old-school NFL. When the Jets and Pats play, you never know what you're going to get. ... Of course, all we have to work with is historical data. We know that New England has held Santonio Holmes to a combined seven catches for 80 yards in their last two meetings, though Holmes has a touchdown in both. I'd still want to start Holmes because the Pats' pass defense stinks. ... One thing we can count on is the Jets at least making an attempt at a run-heavy approach. Shonn Greene had a 41-yard gain called back by penalty in Week 9 that otherwise would've turned his 19-76 line into a much more impressive 20-117 day. Greene is a low-end RB2 and offers little week-to-week upside, but he is not a bad fantasy start because he's going to get the rock a lot, and New England plays mediocre run defense.
Joe McKnight had nine Week 9 carries, but generated only 27 yards (3.0 YPC) and got just three of them when the game was still in doubt. The Jets beat the Bills 27-11. McKnight has a toe injury this week, and his offensive role is guaranteed to decrease, if he even plays at all. ... Plaxico Burress had three catches for 42 scoreless yards in the Jets' Week 5 loss to New England. Plax has looked better recently, but I'd want to see more than two decent games from a 34-year-old receiver with chronic back problems before plugging him into my fantasy lineup. I'm not a Burress believer. ... Mark Sanchez has either been really bad or really good in each of his five career games against New England. He has a three-interception game, a four-INT game, and three pick-less games against the Pats, in the latter combining for six touchdown passes. My bet is always going to be on Sanchez playing poorly rather than well. That may sound simplistic, but the bottom line is that I wouldn't get cute trying to use Sanchez in a standard fantasy league. He's a QB2.
In the Jets' last game against Tom Brady, they dropped seven or eight defenders into coverage on virtually every snap. Brady threw 33 times -- his second lowest attempt total of the season -- while BenJarvus Green-Ellis capitalized on the soft fronts for season highs in carries (27), rushing yards (136), YPC average (5.0), and touchdowns (2). Brady still had 321 yards and a TD, though, and in his last five meetings with Ryan's defense has completed 122-of-184 passes (66.3%) for 1,504 yards (8.17 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. It's a 300.8-yard average. Chris Wesseling and Gregg Rosenthal rank Brady as a top-five quarterback this week for good reason. ... An ESPN report this week suggested that Darrelle Revis will shadow Wes Welker into the slot Sunday, though we've heard that before and it hasn't happened. Seeing is believing at this point. These are Welker's last four lines against the Jets with Ryan as head coach: 5-124, 7-80-1, 6-38-1, 15-192. Start 'em. ... The Patriots pass catcher to be most concerned with in this matchup is Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has not found pay dirt or exceeded 65 yards in four career games against New York, including playoffs. Gronkowski should be near the bottom of this week's TE1 rankings.
Aaron Hernandez, on the other hand, has given the Jets more fits. He's averaging five catches for nearly 70 yards in three regular season contests against New York and will be a better bet for production than Gronkowski this week. ... Deion Branch is struggling mightily to create separation, which perhaps should be expected from a 32-year-old receiver eight games into the NFL season. His yardage total has dropped in each game over the past month and Branch should be benched until he picks it back up. ... Kevin Faulk is tentatively expected back from his lingering knee injury this week, but it's not a sure thing and he won't be a fantasy option. ... Danny Woodhead has no fantasy relevance when Faulk is in the lineup. Woodhead is waiver material. ... Rookie Stevan Ridley's sleeper status is in the gutter with Green-Ellis healthy and a sharp drop in weekly snaps over New England's last four games. ... Green-Ellis is touchdown-less since the aforementioned Jets game, but remains the best bet for carries and goal-line scores in the Patriots' backfield. "Law Firm" is just a flex option, however, with the Jets' run defense stiffening in recent games.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 20
Monday Night Football
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Adrian Peterson's value has actually risen during the season, which is a rare but welcomed development. Not only has Christian Ponder sparked the Vikings' offense by increasing chain movement and sustaining drives, Peterson is benefiting from expanded usage in the passing game. Peterson capitalized on more targets in Week 8 by hauling in a season-high five receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown at Carolina. The passing plays put him in space, where Peterson's open-field running ability can be put to greater use. On Monday night, it helps Peterson's fantasy matchup that the Packers have struggled all year with backs that catch passes. They've yielded 472 yards on 50 catches to running backs through eight games, good for a five-catch, nearly 60-yard weekly average. ... Percy Harvin had a slow first half of the season, playing limited snaps that were further curbed by a rib injury. Harvin is back to 100 percent after Minnesota's Week 9 bye, and coach Leslie Frazier has pledged to increase his playing time. Harvin can be a legitimate threat for 10 touches per game the rest of the way. If you didn't pick up Denarius Moore or trade for Dez Bryant this week, Harvin is an excellent value target for the fantasy stretch run.
A stiff, straight-line wide receiver, Michael Jenkins has topped 45 yards in just 2-of-8 games this season. For a player with such a limited talent level, we need to see sustained production before even considering betting on him in a fantasy league. Usually, the consistency never comes. ... Ponder's target distribution since replacing Donovan McNabb: Jenkins 14, Visanthe Shiancoe 13, Devin Aromashodu 13, Harvin 10. With Harvin now healthy, the rest of the Vikings' pass catchers should be considered hands-off fantasy commodities. ... Ponder has decent two-quarterback league potential because he's entrenched as the starter the rest of the way, is athletic enough to bolster his fantasy value with rushing stats, and now has his top receiver back at 100%. Green Bay's defense has been big on creating turnovers this season, but is allowing lots of yardage and touchdowns.
Unless they dial up a season-best game with the pass rush, the Vikings simply aren't equipped to slow Green Bay's roll. Minnesota doesn't match up well in this game. The Vikes can stop the run (No. 5 ranking) but not the pass (No. 30), and even the most casual observer is aware that Green Bay's greatest strength is the passing game. Aaron Rodgers has a 23:3 TD-to-INT ratio in his last six home games, including two rushing scores. ... The Vikings are expected to get back Antoine Winfield from a neck injury on Monday night, but they typically use him to cover the slot when opponents go three-wide. Burnable Cedric Griffin and Asher Allen play outside cornerback in the nickel. Split end Greg Jennings notoriously abuses Griffin, racking up lines of 7-147-1, 7-152-3, 6-74-1, and 8-88-1 in his last four meetings with Minnesota. ... While Jennings is the No. 6 wideout in fantasy points per game, flanker Jordy Nelson ranks No. 11 despite seeing just over five targets a week. Atoning with playmaking ability, Nelson is averaging a career-high 19.7 yards per reception and is on pace for ten touchdowns.
Coming out of their Week 8 bye, the Packers made a concerted effort to get Jermichael Finley more involved. Rodgers threw Finley's way on three of his first six pass attempts at San Diego, and Finley ultimately capitalized with five catches, 44 yards, and a touchdown. Finley has scored in each of his last two meetings with the Vikings and is the best second-half tight end trade target in fantasy football. ... James Jones has been targeted six times in the Packers' last three games. He has caught all six, but the efficiency is likely to decrease and his week-to-week role isn't significant enough for fantasy reliability. ... Green Bay did emerge from its bye giving James Starks 14 touches compared to Ryan Grant's four, but the Packers are continuing to use the run game on change-of-pace plays only. Neither Starks nor Grant is likely to have per-play success against a Vikings defense that ranks fifth in the league against the run and is permitting just 3.81 YPC. Starks is a very low-end flex option and Grant won't be usable barring a Starks injury.
Score Prediction: Packers 29, Vikings 20
