Dynasty Rankings
Early in the summer I promised some of the more die-hard devotees of my old Sons of the Tundra blog that I would produce updated Dynasty rankings before the start of the season. Between Rotoworld news shifts, Draft Guide updates, and preseason articles, however, I just haven't found the time to unchain myself from the redraft focus.
As Lou Holtz would say, "People don't care how rocky the ocean is, they just want you to bring the ship in."
With that in mind, I forced myself to stay in on a Saturday night and finish what I started and re-started about two dozen times in the past month and a half. Quick guidelines for the rankings below:
The ranks are for standard scoring leagues not PPR.
The ranks are aimed at leagues with rosters between 20 and 25 players and no flex in the starting lineup.
The ranks are weighted more toward competitors than builders; the current season is always three times as important as any future season. Remember: championship banners fly forever. If you are taking over someone else's deserted team and rebuilding, please adjust young talented players upward while demoting aging players.
I'm not a big believer in rebuilding. If you're forced to blow up your roster later this season, though, please keep in mind that nucleus players carry far more value than draft picks. One of the biggest mistakes Dynasty leaguers make is selling stable, elite young talents for the allure of draft picks.
[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]
Tier one
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Peyton Manning, Colts
4. Tony Romo, Cowboys
Notes: Rodgers is the easy choice at the top considering his age, talent level, and arsenal. ... Manning is good for five more top-six finishes. ... Romo hasn't earned elite status quite yet, but he's the one member of the group with two dominant talents at receiver.
Tier Two
5. Tom Brady, Patriots
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
7. Matt Schaub, Texans
8. Joe Flacco, Ravens
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Notes: I'd rather have Flacco than Schaub for the next five years, but I'd take the latter for the next two years. ... I'm still bullish on Ryan as a future elite QB. ... It's a great time to buy low on Bad Ben. Just don't let his owner get away with charging you anything close to full price.
Tier Three
11. Matthew Stafford, Lions
12. Kevin Kolb, Eagles
13. Jay Cutler, Bears
14. Eli Manning, Giants
15. Sam Bradford, Rams
Notes: Kolb's weapons are ridiculously explosive, but he is the next Rob Johnson or the next Aaron Rodgers? I haven't seen enough to be sold on his pocket presence. ... Stafford's weapons aren't far behind, and he has a major advantage in pedigree. ... Cutler's fundamentals are a mess right now. Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger excelled under Mike Martz. They also had Orlando Pace guarding their blindside, not Chris Williams. ... Glowing reports on Bradford's accuracy are legit.
Tier Four
16. Donovan McNabb, Redskins
17. Mark Sanchez, Jets
18. Carson Palmer, Bengals
19. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
20. Vince Young, Titans
21. Chad Henne, Dolphins
Notes: McNabb isn't even a QB1 in redraft leagues in his age-34 season. ... Palmer's arm may never be the same. ... Freeman appears to have more passing potential than V.Y. ... I was beginning to wonder what everyone else was seeing in Chad Henne that was so special. It turns out I'm not the only one.
Tier Five
22. Brett Favre, Vikings
23. Tim Tebow, Broncos
24. David Garrard, Jaguars
25. Kyle Orton, Broncos
26. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
27. Jason Campbell, Raiders
Notes: It's a tier full of quarterbacks that could go either way this season. ... Favre could end up a top-10 fantasy QB once again, or he could finally come to the ugly end. ... Garrard, Orton, Cassel, and Campbell could finally make the leap to solid starter with job security, or they could prove beyond a doubt that they're pure backups at this level. ... I'm higher on Tebow than most are. His fantasy potential is exciting if he can develop under Josh McDaniels.
Tier Six
28. Jimmy Clausen, Panthers
29. Max Hall, Cardinals
30. Michael Vick, Eagles
31. Alex Smith, 49ers
32. Matt Moore, Panthers
33. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
34. Dennis Dixon, Steelers
35. Derek Anderson, Cardinals
36. Trent Edwards, Bills
37. Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks
Notes: I like Moore, but his contract is up after this season and Clausen is lurking as the future starter. ... I have zero confidence in Smith finishing the season as the 49ers' starter. ... Vick has a chance to be a weekly fantasy asset if he lands a job in 2011. ... Dixon is about to audition for the rest of the league. ... Hall is the best quarterback in Arizona right now. I think he takes that job and runs with it by midseason.
Tier Seven
38. Seneca Wallace, Browns
39. Colt McCoy, Browns
40. John Skelton, Cardinals
41. Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins
42. Chad Pennington, Dolphins
43. Matt Flynn, Packers
44. Jake Delhomme, Browns
45. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
46. Sage Rosenfels, Giants
47. Matt Leinart, Texans
48. Luke McCown, Jaguars
49. Marc Bulger, Ravens
Notes: McCoy is a future backup, and Delhomme is a poor bet to carry over his preseason success. ... Thipgen needs a spread offense. If he gets an opportunity in one, he's a fantasy asset. ... It's too early to bury Pennington, but the odds are stacked against him. ... Leinart is now the successor to Dan Orlovsky after flunking out as the successor to Kurt Warner.
Tier Eight
50. Josh Johnson, Buccaneers
51. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders
52. Mike Kafka, Eagles
53. Chase Daniel, Saints
54. Brian Brohm, Bills
55. Byron Leftwich, Steelers
56. Billy Volek, Chargers
57. Shaun Hill, Lions
58. Joe Webb, Vikings
59. Brian Hoyer, Patriot
60. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
61. Jon Kitna, Cowboys
62. Brady Quinn, Broncos
63. Troy Smith, 49ers
64. David Carr, 49ers
65. Chris Redman, Falcons
66. Kerry Collins, Titans
67. Tony Pike, Panthers
68. Dan LeFevour, Bengals
69. Stephen McGee, Cowboys
70. Rex Grossman, Redskins
Notes Kafka drew raves for his accuracy in OTAs but laid a preseason stinker. ... If Brohm can't be out Trent Edwards, he's not worth rostering. ... Daniel is turning into a decent prospect. ... Webb is an athletic freak. ... Quinn's window has closed.
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[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]
Editor's Note: To get exact projections for every player in addition to early rankings, Chris Wesseling's Dynasty report, Target Reports, the Running Back report and much more, get the Season Pass!
Tier One
1. Chris Johnson, Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Notes: It's time to drop the silly notion that CJ2K will have a short career because of his "slight build." He missed just one practice all of last season, and he gets behind his pads better than any back in the league while rarely taking direct hits. ... I've moved Rice ahead of Jones-Drew due to his dramatic edge in surrounding talent.
Tier Two
5. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
6. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
7. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
8. Frank Gore, 49ers
9. Steven Jackson, Rams
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
11. Jahvid Best, Lions
12. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
Notes: Stewart is easily a top-five talent. His value skyrockets if Williams leaves in a contract year. In the meantime, he's a fine RB2. ... Mendenhall and Mathews have every-down back skills in quality offenses. They're also entering their primes just as Gore and Jackson are about to leave theirs. ... Best is my choice to take the league by storm this year. ... Keep the faith in Charles; you will be rewarded.
Tier Three
13. Michael Turner, Falcons
14. C.J. Spiller, Bills
15. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
16. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
17. Shonn Greene, Jets
Notes: Turning 29 after the season, Turner is worth a lot more to contenders than builders. ... Spiller is oozing talent, but I have him as a clear third among rookie backs. I'm still not convinced he can run between the tackles. ... Beanie and Moreno are both quality buy-lows. ... Greene doesn't catch passes and will have to hold off a reinvigorated LaDainian Tomlinson all season.
Tier Four
18. Pierre Thomas, Saints
19. Arian Foster, Texans
20. Ryan Grant, Packers
21. Matt Forte, Bears
22. Cedric Benson, Bengals
23. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
24. Felix Jones, Cowboys
25. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
Notes: Thomas could be in for a career year, but he needs a long-term contract for stability in New Orleans. ... Foster is not only the present but also the future of the Houston backfield. The light flipped on early this offseason, and he's not going to be replaced after racking up numbers in the neighborhood of 1,300 yards and 10-15 touchdowns this year. ... Jones, Bradshaw, and McCoy are intriguing playmakers, but there's a very good chance that they have committee-back ceilings. ... Grant and Benson have more present value than future.
Tier Five
26. Donald Brown, Colts
27. Darren McFadden, Raiders
28. Joseph Addai, Colts
29. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
30. Marion Barber, Cowboys
31. Michael Bush, Raiders
Notes: Brown could be fantasy gold if Addai leaves as a free agent, but he's not yet shown that he can handle feature-back responsibilities. ... I was never a McFadden fan coming into the league, but his trade value is obscenely low right now. ... Addai, Brown, and Barber have major questions about their value beyond this season.
Tier Six
32. Tashard Choice, Cowboys
33. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
34. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
35. Reggie Bush, Saints
36. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
37. Jerome Harrison, Browns
38. Ben Tate, Texans
39. Montario Hardesty, Browns
40. Fred Jackson, Bills
41. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
Notes: Choice deserves a bigger slice of the pie in Dallas, and he may get it as soon as 2011. ... Lynch needs a trade to matter, but he's still just 24 years old. ... Hardesty's history of knee woes doesn't bode well for a starting job in 2011. ... Tate is taking a backseat to Arian Foster. ... Caddy is still a poor bet to stay healthy, but he has a decent shot at RB2 value for 2010. ... Maroney needs to get out of New England.
Tier Seven
42. Bernard Scott, Bengals
43. Justin Forsett, Seahawks
44. Willis McGahee, Ravens
45. Ricky Williams, Dolphins
46. Anthony Dixon, 49ers
47. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
48. Clinton Portis, Redskins
49. Steve Slaton, Texans
50. Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
51. Tim Hightower, Cardinals
52. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
53. Leon Washington, Seahawks
54. Darren Sproles, Chargers
55. Thomas Jones, Chiefs
56. Chester Taylor, Bears
Notes: Forsett, Slaton, Huggins, Hightower, Washington, and Sproles have committee-back ceilings. Scott may be in that group as well. ... McGahee has a shot at a starting job next season, once he's released by the Ravens. ... Tomlinson is showing life in his legs after all.
Tier Eight
57. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
58. Deji Karim, Jaguars
59. Brian Westbrook, 49ers
60. Brandon Jackson, Packers
61. James Starks, Packers
62. Larry Johnson, Redskins
63. Javon Ringer, Titans
64. Jason Snelling, Falcons
65. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
66. Kevin Smith, Lions
67. James Davis, Browns
68. Chris Ivory, Saints
69. Jeremiah Johnson, Texans
70. Correll Buckhalter, Broncos
71. Mike Bell, Eagles
72. Fred Taylor, Patriots
Notes: Westbrook can still play, but he can't stay on the field. ... Karim, Starks, and Ivory are my favorite down-the-road stashes in the group. ... Jackson is unlikely to be the successor to Ryan Grant.
Tier Nine
73. Keiland Williams, Redskins
74. Joe McKnight, Jets
75. Andre Brown, Broncos
76. Derrick Ward, Texans
77. Peyton Hillis, Browns
78. Isaac Redman, Steelers
79. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
80. Mike Goodson, Panthers
81. Tyrell Sutton, Panthers
82. Lex Hilliard, Dolphins
83. Julius Jones, Seahawks
84. Danny Ware, Giants
85. Sammy Morris, Patriots
86. Jalen Parmele, Ravens
87. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
88. Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers
89. Keith Toston, Rams
90. Mewelde Moore, Steelers
91. DeShawn Wynn, Saints
92. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
93. Le'Ron McClain, Ravens
94. Leonard Weaver, Eagles
95. Maurice Morris, Lions
96. Charles Scott, Giants
97. Aaron Brown, Lions
98. Kenneth Darby, Rams
99. Cedric Peerman, Bengals
100. Mike Tolbert, Chargers
Notes: Riffraff, dregs, and bums. ... Williams is worth a stash for the sole reason that he's in a Mike Shanahan offense with two washed-up backs in front of him.
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[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]
Tier One
1. Andre Johnson, Texans
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
3. Calvin Johnson, Lions
Notes: Exhaust all avenues to deal for Calvin Johnson as soon as possible. Just do it. ... I still believe Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the game, but Andre Johnson's advantage in situation is undeniable. That said, Max Hall has everything Matt Leinart did not.
Tier Two
4. Miles Austin, Cowboys
5. Roddy White, Falcons
6. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
7. Randy Moss, Patriots
8. Greg Jennings, Packers
9. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Notes: Moss is in for a monster year, but his Patriots future is up in the air at age 33. ... While Jackson is a unique talent, he's banged up too much for my tastes. ... Jennings has stability with Aaron Rodgers, but Jermichael Finley is emerging as the true No. 1 receiver. ... Bryant is special. It's better to realize that now than find out later. Multiple offenses have supported two elite fantasy receivers in the recent past (Fitzgerald/Boldin, Moss/Welker, Ocho/Housh, Harrison/Wayne, Holt/Bruce), and it's going to happen for the next few years in Dallas.
Tier Three
10. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
11. Reggie Wayne, Colts
12. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
13. Steve Smith, Panthers
14. Marques Colston, Saints
15. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
Notes: Smith South and V-Jax are elite talents being treated as red-headed step children by Dynasty owners. Buy now! ... Coming off a second hip surgery, head-case Marshall is going to a run-heavy offense with quarterback questions. Feel free to give him a major bump in PPR leagues. ... Wayne is beginning the slow fade.
Tier Four
16. Percy Harvin, Vikings
17. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
18. Sidney Rice, Vikings
19. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
20. Mike Wallace, Steelers
21. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
22. Steve Smith, Giants
23. Wes Welker, Patriots
Notes: Rice has now had two season-killing injuries in three years, and the quarterback questions in 2011 and beyond affect him more than Harvin. ... Nicks is a future top-10 receiver. ... Feel free to ignore anyone who tells you that Wallace is the next Nate Washington. They have no idea what they're talking about. ... Smith and Welker are obviously worth more in PPR leagues; I see 2009 as Smith's career year.
Tier Five
24. Johnny Knox, Bears
25. Santonio Holmes, Jets
26. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
27. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
28. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars
29. Pierre Garcon, Colts
30. Kenny Britt, Titans
31. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
32. Robert Meachem, Saints
Notes: Knox is more talented than you think he is. ... Holmes is a knucklehead going to a run-first offense with a major quarterback downgrade. ... Sims-Walker's injury history shakes his stability. ... Britt is one of the best buy-lows going right now.
Tier Six
33. Jacoby Jones, Texans
34. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
35. Braylon Edwards, Jets
36. Hines Ward, Steelers
37. Santana Moss, Redskins
38. Lee Evans, Bills
39. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
40. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns
41. Devin Aromashodu, Bears
42. Austin Collie, Colts
43. Devin Hester, Bears
44. Louis Murphy, Raiders
45. Donald Driver, Packers
46. Eddie Royal, Broncos
47. Golden Tate, Seahawks
48. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
Notes: Jones is a breakout waiting to happen. ... Ward and Moss are this year's undervalued aging players that will produce WR2 value all season. ... Evan is easily a top-20 talent, but I've been burned by his situation for too many years. ... Floyd can thank V-Jax's absence for his value. ... Collie is one of the most underappreciated players in the league. ... Hester isn't a great bet for long-term value. ... Murphy is another breakout candidate.
Tier Seven
48. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
49. Laurent Robinson, Rams
50. Steve Breaston, Cardinals
51. James Jones, Packers
52. Eric Decker, Broncos
53. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers
54. Mike Thomas, Jaguars
55. Jordy Nelson, Packers
56. Bernard Berrian, Vikings
57. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
58. Early Doucet, Cardinals
59. Stephen Williams, Cardinals
60. Brandon Tate, Patriots
61. Terrell Owens, Bengals
62. Mario Manningham, Giants
63. Jabar Gaffney, Broncos
64. Julian Edelman, Patriots
65. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
66. Deon Butler, Seahawks
67. Jordan Shipley, Bengals
68. Devery Henderson, Saints
69. Victor Cruz, Giants
70. Mike Williams, Seahawks
Notes: Let's keep the Big Mike Williams love in perspective. Is he going to start for the Seahawks, perhaps even as the No. 1 receiver? Yes. But he's a borderline WR3, not a fantasy difference-maker. ... I'd prefer to carry Decker, Stephen Williams, Brandon Tate, or Victor Cruz. In fact, I prefer Butler in Seattle.
Tier Eight
71. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ravens
72. Roy Williams, Cowboys
73. Derrick Mason, Ravens
74. Mardy Gilyard, Rams
75. Chaz Schilens, Raiders
76. Devin Thomas, Redskins
77. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
78. Antonio Bryant, Free Agent
79. Josh Morgan, 49ers
80. Legedu Naanee, Chargers
81. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
82. Taylor Price, Patriots
83. Nate Burleson, Lions
84. Chris Chambers, Chiefs
85. Donnie Avery, Rams
86. Davone Bess, Dolphins
87. Danny Amendola, Rams
88. Lance Moore, Saints
89. Mark Clayton, Rams
90. Antonio Brown, Steelers
91. Kevin Walter, Texans
92. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
93. Joshua Cribbs, Browns
94. Harry Douglas, Falcons
95. Armanti Edwards, Panthers
96. Steve Johnson, Bills
97. Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers
98. Ramses Barden, Giants
99. Damian Williams, Titans
100. Ted Ginn Jr., 49ers
101. Greg Camarillo, Vikings
102. Brian Robiskie, Browns
103. Nate Washington, Titans
104. Justin Gage, Titans
105. Earl Bennett, Bears
106. Jarett Dillard, Jaguars
107. Andre Roberts, Cardinals
108. Kevin Ogletree, Cowboys
109. Patrick Crayton, Chargers
110. Anthony Armstrong, Redskins
Notes: It's a grab-bag. Find the one that suits your roster (building vs. contending, deep vs. shallow at receiver, old vs. young at receiver) and your league specifics (PPR vs. standard, deep rosters vs. shallow rosters, flex vs. two receivers, trades vs. no trades).
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[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]
Tier One
1. Jermichael Finley, Packers
2. Antonio Gates, Chargers
3. Dallas Clark, Colts
4. Vernon Davis, 49ers
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys
Notes: As perhaps the toughest matchup in the league at age 23, Finley is the easy choice at No. 1. ... Davis would be third, but his long-term quarterback situation is a concern and Clark is a guaranteed stud.
Tier Two
6. Brent Celek, Eagles
7. Zach Miller, Raiders
8. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
9. Owen Daniels, Texans
Notes Miller is still under 25 years old, and he may be the best value right now at any position. ... Daniels' recent production merits a higher ranking, but he's at contract crossroads and coming off a third ACL surgery.
Tier Three:
10. Dustin Keller, Jets
11. Heath Miller, Steelers
12. Chris Cooley, Redskins
13. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
14. John Carlson, Seahawks
15. Greg Olsen, Bears
16. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
17. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
18. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
Notes: Olsen is docked for the Martz effect. ... Builders can't be blamed for valuing Gresham and Hernandez quite a bit higher than contenders. ... I'd rather have another guaranteed top-10 finish out of Gonzo than wait for Carlson to finally break out only to have quarterback issues pop up in 2011. ... Miller is coming off a career year, but his role doesn't figure to diminish with Santonio Holmes out of the picture.
Tier Four
19. Fred Davis, Redskins
20. Tony Scheffler, Lions
21. Jared Cook, Titans
22. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
23. Jimmy Graham, Saints
24. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
25. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Notes: The whole group belongs in the third tier on talent alone, but opportunity, consistency, and a prominent offensive role have proven elusive.
Tier Five
26. Ed Dickson, Ravens
27. Todd Heap, Ravens
28. Ben Watson, Browns
29. Kevin Boss, Giants
30. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
31. Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams
32. Martellus Bennett, Cowboys
33. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
34. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
35. Gary Barnidge, Panthers
36. Evan Moore, Browns
37. James Casey, Texans
Notes: Shockey's after-the-catch ability is gone. Try to trade him next time he has a decent fantasy week. ... Boss, Watson, and Heap lack upside. ... Hoomanwanui was mislabled as a blocking specialist. ... Barnidge, Moore, and Casey have loads of potential as receivers but lack blocking ability.
Tier Six
38. Zach Miller, Jaguars
39. Shawn Nelson, Bills
40. Fendi Onobun, Rams
41. Bo Scaife, Titans
42. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
43. Garrett Graham, Texans
44. Cornelius Ingram, Eagles
45. David Thomas, Saints
46. Andrew Quarless, Packers
47. Dante Rosario, Panthers
48. Travis Beckum, Giants
49. Clay Harbor, Eagles
50. Anthony McCoy, Seahawks
Notes: Miller has to stay healthy and dramatically improve his blocking. ... Onobun, a former basketball player, is a tremendous athlete. ... Scaife and Fasano are as good as they'll ever be, and they're not worth much now.