Fantasy Football News 2010/2011

[HacheMan]

PPR Mock Draft Analysis
The following industry draft took place throughout the month of July (and when I say "throughout," I mean it -- it was done over email) for a league that will not be played out. The scoring format is points per reception, and quarterbacks are awarded four points per passing touchdown. All other TDs are worth six points. It's a 12-teamer with 18 rounds (216 picks), so we had to show our depth of player knowledge in the latter portion of the draft.

Editor's Note: Get updated player projections in the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide.

I received the second overall pick. Here's how it went down:

Round One

1.1. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
1.2. Rotoworld - Titans RB Chris Johnson
1.3. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew
1.4. Ravens RB Ray Rice
1.5. 49ers RB Frank Gore
1.6. Texans WR Andre Johnson
1.7. Patriots WR Randy Moss
1.8. Falcons RB Michael Turner
1.9. Rams RB Steven Jackson
1.10. Colts WR Reggie Wayne
1.11. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
1.12. Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall

Comments: The top five is the same in every draft, regardless of format. ... It's not surprising that three receivers went in round one of a PPR draft, but just one of the three selected here rank in our PPR top three. It's disappointing to see Larry Fitzgerald continue to be undervalued. Unless you're the guy getting him in the second round. ... With rookie Jonathan Dwyer showing nothing in camp, Mendenhall is gaining steam. Capable of flirting with 400 touches, Rocket Rashard is a rock-solid first-round pick.

Round Two

2.1. Cowboys WR Miles Austin
2.2. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald
2.3. Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams
2.4. Lions WR Calvin Johnson
2.5. Falcons WR Roddy White
2.6. Packers WR Greg Jennings
2.7. Saints WR Drew Brees
2.8. Chiefs RB Jammal Charles
2.9. Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall
2.10. Colts QB Peyton Manning
2.11. Rotoworld - Saints RB Pierre Thomas
2.12. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews

Comments: No major surprises in this round. Austin comes closest, but he's in our top-five PPR wide receivers, so I can't argue. Dez Bryant's anticipated slow start due to a high ankle sprain works in Austin's favor. ... I was hoping for Jennings or Marshall, but had to opt for "RB-RB" despite the PPR scoring. Pierre Thomas has plenty of upside for a late second-round pick. Make no mistake: Lynell Hamilton's season-ending ACL tear significantly increases Thomas' touchdown potential. Undrafted backs P.J. Hill and Christopher Ivory are practice squad material at best. Ivory couldn't even start at Washington State, leaving the D-I college in 2009 for D-II Tiffin with four career rushing scores in three seasons.

Round Three

3.1. Saints WR Marques Colston
3.2. Rotoworld - Vikings WR Sidney Rice
3.3. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson
3.4. Giants WR Steve Smith
3.5. Cardinals RB Chris Wells
3.6. Packers RB Ryan Grant
3.7. Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno
3.8. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy
3.9. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart
3.10. Ravens WR Anquan Boldin
3.11. Jets RB Shonn Greene
3.12. Cowboys QB Tony Romo

Comments: I wasn't as concerned with Rice's hip injury in early July as I am now. I still think he's worth a fifth- or sixth-round pick, but would've went with Jackson or Steve Smith of the Panthers if I could redo it. ... I'm still not bullish on McCoy's talent, and certainly would've drafted Stewart, Moreno, and even Jahvid Best over him. The PPR factor does make McCoy a safer bet.

Round Four

4.1. Bengals RB Cedric Benson
4.2. Bears RB Matt Forte
4.3. Texans QB Matt Schaub
4.4. Panthers WR Steve Smith
4.5. Patriots WR Wes Welker
4.6. Lions RB Jahvid Best
4.7. Colts TE Dallas Clark
4.8. 49ers WR Michael Crabtree
4.9. Patriots QB Tom Brady
4.10. Colts RB Joseph Addai
4.11. Rotoworld - Cowboys RB Felix Jones
4.12. Jaguars WR Mike Sims-Walker

Comments: Benson, unsurprisingly, only received two carries in the Hall of Fame game, but it was hard not to be impressed with his flashes of and power and quick cuts in the small sample size. He went too early here with the PPR scoring, but it was promising to see Benson run well after his late-season hip injury last year. ... Welker's ADP is deservedly on the rise. He's continued to surge up our rankings. ... Chris Wesseling's concerns about Felix Jones are warranted, but my pick came down to Jones versus Dwayne Bowe. I thought I had a better chance of snagging Bowe in the fifth, and ...

Round Five

5.1. Chargers TE Antonio Gates
5.2. Rotoworld - Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe
5.3. Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco
5.4. 49ers TE Vernon Davis
5.5. Giants WR Hakeem Nicks
5.6. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown
5.7. Chargers QB Philip Rivers
5.8. Saints WR Robert Meachem
5.9. Steelers WR Hines Ward
5.10. Seahawks RB Justin Forsett
5.11. Vikings WR Percy Harvin
5.12. Packers TE Jermichael Finley

Comments: ... I got him. To me, Bowe stands out as the best value of round five. ... Of course, there were a lot of questionable picks here. Nicks is a tremendous talent, but probably won't top 75 receptions. ... Rivers is relying on a rare sixth-year breakout from Malcom Floyd and a makeshift left tackle (Brandyn Dombrowksi). Let someone else draft him. ... Meachem (toe) still hasn't practiced in training camp, and continues to lose ground to Devery Henderson. He just isn't good value in the fifth. ... Wesseling summed up Forsett's 2010 outlook nicely in this column.

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Round Six

6.1. Colts WR Pierre Garcon
6.2. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs
6.3. Redskins RB Clinton Portis
6.4. Cowboys TE Jason Witten
6.5. Eagles TE Brent Celek
6.6. Steelers WR Mike Wallace
6.7. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant
6.8. Bears QB Jay Cutler
6.9. Saints RB Reggie Bush
6.10. Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez
6.11. Rotoworld - Redskins WR Santana Moss
6.12. Seahawks WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Comments: The owner who drafted Cutler smartly pointed out that the league's scoring negates just one point for an interception. Many leagues take away two points. Cutler was the 11th overall quarterback in this format last season. ... The sixth round took place before Bryant's high ankle sprain. The Bryant owner would probably like that one back. ... I like Moss as my WR3 as long as I have a high-upside WR4. I'd get one (Johnny Knox) later on.

Round Seven

7.1. Ravens QB Joe Flacco
7.2. Rotoworld - Eagles QB Kevin Kolb
7.3. Cardinals WR Steve Breaston
7.4. Bengals WR Terrell Owens
7.5. Titans WR Kenny Britt
7.6. Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin
7.7. Cowboys RB Marion Barber
7.8. Bears WR Devin Hester
7.9. Vikings QB Brett Favre
7.10. Packers WR Donald Driver
7.11. Texans TE Owen Daniels
7.12. Chargers WR Malcom Floyd

Comments: Most pundits are down on T.O., but I believe he's a fine seventh-round pick, and wouldn't be surprised if he outscored Chad Ochocinco. If the Hall of Fame game was any indication -- and I'm not saying it is -- Carson Palmer will look to Owens early and often. ... Picks I didn't like: Breaston, Driver, and Daniels. Daniels isn't a lock to be ready for Week 1, Driver is already dealing with a knee surgery-related injury, and Breaston's gone too early in every draft I've done.

Round Eight

8.1. Patriots WR Julian Edelman
8.2. Bears WR Devin Aromashodu
8.3. Raiders TE Zach Miller
8.4. Dolphins RB Ricky Williams
8.5. Giants QB Eli Manning
8.6. Texans RB Ben Tate
8.7. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson
8.8. Lions QB Matthew Stafford
8.9. Bucs RB Carnell Williams
8.10. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson
8.11. Rotoworld - Bears WR Johnny Knox
8.12. Raiders RB Darren McFadden

Comments: It's difficult to see what the Edelman drafter was doing with all signs pointing to Wes Welker being ready for Opening Day. Edelman won't have a significant role barring a Welker setback. The pick would've made more sense if the owner was "handcuffing" Welker with Edelman, but he wasn't. ... Knox was the third Bears receiver drafted, and indications out of Bourbonnais are that he'll be Chicago's featured offensive player. I'm biased, but this reeks of value. ... In contrast, Tate was the first Texans back picked. The owner who drafted Tate apparently doesn't read Rotoworld. ... Other picks I didn't like: L.T., and Eli Manning and Stafford before Matt Ryan.

Round Nine

9.1. Texans RB Steve Slaton
9.2. Rotoworld - Bills RB C.J. Spiller
9.3. Colts RB Donald Brown
9.4. Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw
9.5. Raiders RB Michael Bush
9.6. Bills RB Fred Jackson
9.7. Bucs TE Kellen Winslow
9.8. Browns RB Montario Hardesty
9.9. Cardinals RB Tim Hightower
9.10. Redskins QB Donovan McNabb
9.11. Browns RB Jerome Harrison
9.12. Patriots RB Laurence Maroney

Comments: Spiller is my RB4. Too bad this won't be played out. ... Bradshaw's ADP will inevitably rise due to news he may start ahead of Brandon Jacobs. It's going to be a 50:50 split, but Bradshaw has emerged as the obvious value pick in New York's backfield. ... Hardesty is currently listed as a fourth-stringer in Cleveland. He should open the season as the Browns' No. 3 back at worst, but Hardesty isn't noticeably a better talent than Jerome Harrison or James Davis.

Round Ten

10.1. Ravens WR Derrick Mason
10.2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes
10.3. Bucs WR Arrelious Benn
10.4. Broncos WR Jabar Gaffney
10.5. Broncos RB Correll Buckhalter
10.6. Texans RB Arian Foster
10.7. Falcons QB Matt Ryan
10.8. Bills WR Lee Evans
10.9. Jets WR Braylon Edwards
10.10. Chiefs WR Dexter McCluster
10.11. Rotoworld - Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
10.12. Broncos WR Eddie Royal

Comments: Another ugly round. How far has Lee Evans fallen? The No. 7 fantasy receiver in 2006, Evans hasn't finished better than the WR27 over the past three seasons. Good news: the talent is still there, and the Bills don't have anyone else to throw to. ... The 10th round is the soonest I've seen McCluster off the board after about 10 preseason drafts. ... Roethlisberger is my Kevin Kolb insurance. I also drafted Michael Vick in the 18th in case Kolb flops.

Round Eleven

11.1. Bengals QB Carson Palmer
11.2. Rotoworld - Redskins TE Chris Cooley
11.3. Chargers RB Darren Sproles
11.4. Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe
11.5. Seahawks TE John Carlson
11.6. Chiefs RB Thomas Jones
11.7. Dolphins QB Chad Henne
11.8. Texans WR Jacoby Jones
11.9. Panthers QB Matt Moore
11.10. Lions RB Kevin Smith
11.11. Colts WR Austin Collie
11.12. Bears RB Chester Taylor

Comments: Palmer didn't have much time to throw in Sunday's Hall of Fame game, but he sure didn't have much zip on his passes, either. The entire Rotoworld crew remains skeptical that Palmer still has the arm power to be worth any more than a late-round fantasy pick. ... I've gotten Cooley in countless preseason drafts. Along with Carlson (who also went in this round), he's one of the best values entering the 2010 fantasy season.

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Round Twelve

12.1. Bengals RB Bernard Scott
12.2. 49ers QB Alex Smith
12.3. Jaguars WR Mike Thomas
12.4. Seahawks WR Golden Tate
12.5. Jaguars QB David Garrard
12.6. Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery
12.7. New York Jets Defense
12.8. Minnesota Vikings Defense
12.9. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel
12.10. Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez
12.11. Rotoworld - Rams WR Laurent Robinson
12.12. Redskins WR Devin Thomas

Comments: Thomas' stranglehold on a starting job in Jacksonville arguably gives him the highest upside of any player picked in this round. While I'm not touting him for a true statistical breakout, he's worth a serious look. At Arizona, Thomas drew comparisons to Panthers receiver Steve Smith for his deceptively physical style and game-breaking speed. ... Defenses are starting to go, and it's too early with six rounds left. The Jets seem to be the consensus No. 1 fantasy defense this year, but I don't see it. There's not a double-digit sack threat on the roster.

Round Thirteen

13.1. Ravens RB Willis McGahee
13.2. Rotoworld - Bucs WR Mike Williams
13.3. Redskins RB Larry Johnson
13.4. Bills RB Marshawn Lynch
13.5. Lions WR Nate Burleson
13.6. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas
13.7. Packers WR James Jones
13.8. Steelers TE Heath Miller
13.9. Jets TE Dustin Keller
13.10. Chiefs WR Chris Chambers
13.11. Seahawks RB Leon Washington
13.12. Raiders QB Jason Campbell

Comments: McGahee was my 13th-round target, but he went one spot before me. I "settled" for the No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay. We moved Williams up our rankings Wednesday night. The Syracuse product won't be consistent, but is bound to have some big games as the Bucs' go-to wideout. ... Owners drafting Lynch in the latter rounds are still hoping for a preseason trade. There are no indications coming out of Buffalo that that's a possibility.

Round Fourteen

14.1. Browns WR Mohamed Massaquoi
14.2. Philadelphia Eagles Defense
14.3. Baltimore Ravens Defense
14.4. Vikings WR Bernard Berrian
14.5. Bucs RB Derrick Ward
14.6. Green Bay Packers Defense
14.7. Saints WR Lance Moore
14.8. Bears TE Greg Olsen
14.9. Cowboys WR Roy Williams
14.10. Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
14.11. Rotoworld - Vikings RB Toby Gerhart
14.12. Cowboys RB Tashard Choice

Comments: With Sidney Rice's injury continuing to linger, Berrian's fantasy stock is on the rise. Berrian averaged 20.1 yards a catch in 2008 and is only 29 years old. He'll be a fantasy starter if Rice misses regular season action. ... I didn't draft Adrian Peterson, but went with Gerhart anyway. Albert Young isn't a serious contender for the No. 2 running back job in Minnesota. If Peterson blows out a knee, Gerhart will be an every-week RB2.

Round Fifteen

15.1. Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson
15.2. Rotoworld - San Francisco 49ers Defense
15.3. Cardinals QB Matt Leinart
15.4. Saints K Garrett Hartley
15.5. Packers RB James Starks
15.6. Dolphins RB Lex Hilliard
15.7. Eagles RB Mike Bell
15.8. Rams WR Donnie Avery
15.9. Packers RB Brandon Jackson
15.10. Seahawks RB Julius Jones
15.11. Dallas Cowboys Defense
15.12. Texans WR Kevin Walter

Comments: Out with a hamstring injury since May, Starks no longer looks like a lock to make Green Bay's roster. It's a shame because he is a promising long-term prospect and would've been an explosive upgrade over Brandon Jackson on third downs.

Round Sixteen

16.1. Lions TE Tony Scheffler
16.2. Raiders K Chaz Schilens
16.3. Patriots RB Kevin Faulk
16.4. New York Giants Defense
16.5. Miami Dolphins Defense
16.6. Giants WR Mario Manningham
16.7. Falcons RB Jason Snelling
16.8. Dolphins WR Davone Bess
16.9. Chargers K Nate Kaeding
16.10. Dolphins WR Brian Hartline
16.11. Rotoworld - Bears K Robbie Gould
16.12. Chicago Bears Defense

Round Seventeen Manningham is a great 16th-round pick. Steve Smith is already banged up, and Manningham is talented enough to be a usable WR3 if Smith or Hakeem Nicks suffers an in-season injury.

17.1. Chargers WR Legedu Naanee
17.2. Rotoworld - Titans RB Javon Ringer
17.3. Saints RB Lynell Hamilton
17.4. New Orleans Saints Defense
17.5. Packers K Mason Crosby
17.6. Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski
17.7. Titans K Rob Bironas
17.8. Cincinnati Bengals Defense
17.9. Vikings K Ryan Longwell
17.10. Titans TE Bo Scaife
17.11. Giants TE Kevin Boss
17.12. Indianapolis Colts Defense

Round Eighteen

18.1. Dolphins K Dan Carpenter
18.2. Eagles K David Akers
18.3. Giants K Lawrence Tynes
18.4. Titans WR Damian Williams
18.5. Cardinals K Jay Feely
18.6. Redskins TE Fred Davis
18.7. Cardinals WR Early Doucet
18.8. Steelers RB Jonathan Dwyer
18.9. San Diego Chargers Defense
18.10. Cowboys K David Buehler
18.11. Rotoworld - Eagles QB Michael Vick
18.12. Ravens K Shayne Graham

 

[HacheMan]

Donald Brown poised to be a sleeper
http://insider.espn.go.com/sports/fantasy/blog?name=karabell_eric_football&id=5460789#comments
By Eric Karabell

A year ago at this time, Indianapolis Colts then-rookie running back Donald Brown seemed to be on many fantasy football sleeper lists. Brown was the team's first-round pick out of Connecticut for a reason, and incumbent running back Joseph Addai looked poised to lose playing time after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Instead, Addai bounced back with a very impressive season, finishing ninth among running backs in fantasy scoring, and Brown was neither healthy nor productive.

It's funny how perception can change on two players in one season, but fantasy owners shouldn't be so quick to either dismiss Brown or presume Addai is totally safe. I've read positive news about the healthy Brown recently, how he's come to camp in terrific shape and with something to prove. I also read the always-outstanding work of colleague KC Joyner, who reinforced the notion Addai isn't exactly a normal, top-shelf running back by pointing out his deficiencies even as he gets good blocking. Brown, on the other hand, despite his seemingly poor season, thrived in this area, though in a smaller sample size.

<OFFER>

I blogged about notable handcuff running back situations earlier this week, but I don't think the Colts fit that mold. If both their backs are healthy, they're more likely to share the load in this unusual offense (the Colts pass so much), rather than one of them hogging the attention. Of course, they aren't being drafted that way. Addai, despite finishing in the top 10 of running backs last season, isn't regarded that highly in ESPN average live drafts, but he's still being selected 43rd overall and 20th among running backs. Brown is being treated better than I thought he would, based on his rookie numbers, going just outside the top 100. I'd argue that's a pretty nice spot for someone who ran for only 281 yards as a rookie and wasn't a factor in the passing game or in goal-line situations ... so I say good for fantasy owners for realizing some of fantasy's top sleepers are sophomores who were disappointing rookies.
For the second consecutive season, Addai failed to average 4 yards per carry, though obviously the Colts aren't built to thrive in the run game. It's Peyton Manning's offense. Still, one wonders for how long Manning will have to carry the load. In the 2009 season, Addai's top rushing total was 79 yards, and he's topped that figure only once since Week 8 of 2007. That's a telling stat, that a starting running back has rushed for 100 yards once in 38 games. Addai reached the top 10 for running backs because of the touchdowns he scored and his fine work catching the ball. It's certainly likely a healthy Brown cuts into both of those areas.
Addai is a good player, though he remains injury prone and ripe to become a third-down back at some point, if the Colts had a big, bruising runner to handle the tough yards, which they don't. Brown is bigger than Addai, faster and more likely to break big plays, which is why it's important for us to follow his progression this preseason. I still expect Addai to start in Week 1 and do his normal thing, but Brown will be a factor, as well. That would make Brown a bit of a steal in Round 11, and really hurt Addai's value as a fantasy owner's second running back, and sure-fire starter. For now I'll wait and see what comes from Colts camp before dropping Addai in my rankings, because Brown still has yet to prove himself in the NFL. If you take Addai, however, even in Round 5, don't worry so much about handcuffing Brown later as well, but be sure to have proper running back depth.

 

[HacheMan]

Top five RB handcuffs for 2010 season

By Eric Karabell
In every fantasy football draft, there comes the time to start selecting backup running backs. I'm not talking about the numerous players in potential time-shares -- Jonathan Stewart, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones -- but those who aren't expected to start or provide many fantasy points. Most of these fellows possess value. They're just one tweaked ankle away from being very, very important. I'm talking about players like Minnesota Vikings rookie Toby Gerhart, this season's prime example of a handcuff.
I must admit I don't generally seek out running back handcuffs for my own starters, because I believe in most cases that even in ideal conditions, with a run-first offense, a strong offensive line and an injury-prone starter, there are still no guarantees. I'm still looking for the best player available, and if that player happens to have no connection to my top running backs, so be it. For years, I've seen people seek out handcuffs for Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson -- the top running backs -- with little success, doing so in Round 5 or so. Talk about fruitless.
However, if you've drafted properly and have the key starters on your team sewn up by Rounds 10 or 11, then it becomes handcuff stealin' time! I'm talking about either your handcuffs or the ones others should covet.
<OFFER>Here are the top five running back handcuffs for this season and -- in a vacuum -- in which round I'd choose them. To me, one can't be a handcuff unless the starting running back is a legit fantasy starter … I'm not real concerned about who backs up Cadillac Williams in Tampa Bay, you know?
Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings: The Heisman Trophy runner-up rushed for 1,871 yards and scored 27 touchdowns last season at Stanford. Everyone in the league has skills, of course, but few youngsters bring credentials like these. The Vikings feature arguably the top offensive line, serious wide receiver weapons and their Hall of Fame quarterback -- he will return -- does throw to his running backs. I don't think it's likely Gerhart gets a chance to shine, since Adrian Peterson is so good and so durable, but I'd still select him in Round 13, or three rounds earlier than his ESPN average live draft spot.
Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: While Chester Taylor was able to accrue 70 fantasy points as Peterson's Minnesota handcuff, Jennings managed only 26 points working behind Maurice Jones-Drew last season. The Jaguars keep saying they want to ease the workload on MJD, but then again, he has only one season of more than 200 rushing attempts. I've got Jennings pegged for Round 15, and since I generally leave my defense and kicker for Rounds 15 and 16 of standard drafts, that means I'd be fine letting him be a free agent.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills; Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens: These guys could have been teammates with the Bills, but McGahee was traded to the Ravens a bit before Lynch was drafted. Now they find themselves in unenviable yet similar situations, apparently needing an injury to get them playing time. I view Fred Jackson as a top-25 running back in Buffalo, and of course Ray Rice is a consensus top-5 pick. Still, because Lynch and McGahee are accomplished players with five 1,000-yard seasons between them, and each could figure into the goal-line chances, I'd look at them near Round 10.

Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons: Just because I ranked Michael Turner in my overall top 10 hardly means I don't have doubts. Turner missed most of six games last season a year after being the league's breakout performer, and while I'd give Turner the benefit of the doubt, Snelling is clearly next in line. Jerious Norwood just isn't built for big-time carries, and Snelling proved himself with four games of 15 or more fantasy points. I have Snelling ranked in the 14th round, but I think I need to move that up a round or two.


Javon Ringer, Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson is the top player in most fantasy drafts, and no other Titans running back is being selected in ESPN average live drafts. Ringer is the No. 67 running back off the board, but he's owned in a mere 3.4 percent of leagues. Why the difference between him and Gerhart? For one, Ringer wasn't a Heisman candidate. Two, the Titans wouldn't likely call the same number of plays for Ringer that they do for Johnson, should the league's top rusher get hurt. Since I rank Ringer off the board for 16-round drafts, I wouldn't select him at this point.
Other names to know: Rashard Mendenhall isn't the most proven fellow, which makes Mewelde Moore interesting. Then again, Moore averaged 3.4 yards per carry last season. I have a feeling the team would sign someone if Mendenhall got hurt … I kind of like Brandon Jackson in Green Bay behind Ryan Grant and think he could handle 15-plus carries per game, and do something with them. … Are you buying another huge workload for Cedric Benson in Cincinnati? If you draft Benson in Round 2, then invest in Bernard Scott 10 rounds later.

 

[HacheMan]

Top five RB handcuffs for 2010 season

By Eric Karabell
In every fantasy football draft, there comes the time to start selecting backup running backs. I'm not talking about the numerous players in potential time-shares -- Jonathan Stewart, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones -- but those who aren't expected to start or provide many fantasy points. Most of these fellows possess value. They're just one tweaked ankle away from being very, very important. I'm talking about players like Minnesota Vikings rookie Toby Gerhart, this season's prime example of a handcuff.
I must admit I don't generally seek out running back handcuffs for my own starters, because I believe in most cases that even in ideal conditions, with a run-first offense, a strong offensive line and an injury-prone starter, there are still no guarantees. I'm still looking for the best player available, and if that player happens to have no connection to my top running backs, so be it. For years, I've seen people seek out handcuffs for Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson -- the top running backs -- with little success, doing so in Round 5 or so. Talk about fruitless.
However, if you've drafted properly and have the key starters on your team sewn up by Rounds 10 or 11, then it becomes handcuff stealin' time! I'm talking about either your handcuffs or the ones others should covet.
<OFFER>Here are the top five running back handcuffs for this season and -- in a vacuum -- in which round I'd choose them. To me, one can't be a handcuff unless the starting running back is a legit fantasy starter … I'm not real concerned about who backs up Cadillac Williams in Tampa Bay, you know?
Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings: The Heisman Trophy runner-up rushed for 1,871 yards and scored 27 touchdowns last season at Stanford. Everyone in the league has skills, of course, but few youngsters bring credentials like these. The Vikings feature arguably the top offensive line, serious wide receiver weapons and their Hall of Fame quarterback -- he will return -- does throw to his running backs. I don't think it's likely Gerhart gets a chance to shine, since Adrian Peterson is so good and so durable, but I'd still select him in Round 13, or three rounds earlier than his ESPN average live draft spot.
Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: While Chester Taylor was able to accrue 70 fantasy points as Peterson's Minnesota handcuff, Jennings managed only 26 points working behind Maurice Jones-Drew last season. The Jaguars keep saying they want to ease the workload on MJD, but then again, he has only one season of more than 200 rushing attempts. I've got Jennings pegged for Round 15, and since I generally leave my defense and kicker for Rounds 15 and 16 of standard drafts, that means I'd be fine letting him be a free agent.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills; Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens: These guys could have been teammates with the Bills, but McGahee was traded to the Ravens a bit before Lynch was drafted. Now they find themselves in unenviable yet similar situations, apparently needing an injury to get them playing time. I view Fred Jackson as a top-25 running back in Buffalo, and of course Ray Rice is a consensus top-5 pick. Still, because Lynch and McGahee are accomplished players with five 1,000-yard seasons between them, and each could figure into the goal-line chances, I'd look at them near Round 10.

Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons: Just because I ranked Michael Turner in my overall top 10 hardly means I don't have doubts. Turner missed most of six games last season a year after being the league's breakout performer, and while I'd give Turner the benefit of the doubt, Snelling is clearly next in line. Jerious Norwood just isn't built for big-time carries, and Snelling proved himself with four games of 15 or more fantasy points. I have Snelling ranked in the 14th round, but I think I need to move that up a round or two.


Javon Ringer, Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson is the top player in most fantasy drafts, and no other Titans running back is being selected in ESPN average live drafts. Ringer is the No. 67 running back off the board, but he's owned in a mere 3.4 percent of leagues. Why the difference between him and Gerhart? For one, Ringer wasn't a Heisman candidate. Two, the Titans wouldn't likely call the same number of plays for Ringer that they do for Johnson, should the league's top rusher get hurt. Since I rank Ringer off the board for 16-round drafts, I wouldn't select him at this point.
Other names to know: Rashard Mendenhall isn't the most proven fellow, which makes Mewelde Moore interesting. Then again, Moore averaged 3.4 yards per carry last season. I have a feeling the team would sign someone if Mendenhall got hurt … I kind of like Brandon Jackson in Green Bay behind Ryan Grant and think he could handle 15-plus carries per game, and do something with them. … Are you buying another huge workload for Cedric Benson in Cincinnati? If you draft Benson in Round 2, then invest in Bernard Scott 10 rounds later.

 

[HacheMan]

The perils of Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco leads the list of fantasy sleepers who don't deserve that hype
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider


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One of my wife's (Mrs. Scientist's) favorite television characters is Barney Stinson from the CBS sitcom "How I Met Your Mother." Stinson is a custom-tailored-suit-wearing, catchphrase-spewing, hyperconfident womanizer whose willingness to accept any challenge puts him into a constant set of hilarious corners.


Stinson is also known as the progenitor of The Bro Code; this code details a wide variety of rules for bros to follow -- and also contains a set of warnings for dealing with women.


One of these admonitions is The Cheerleader Effect. This rule states that certain groups of women will look attractive as a group, but taken individually they will look like, in Stinson's words, "sled dogs."


That same rule can apply to certain fantasy football picks: There are a number of players whose 2010 fantasy scoring prospects look good because of their surroundings, but a closer look shows that they could be benefiting from the aforementioned effect -- and therefore should not be valued as highly as they will be in most draft rooms.


Here are four such guys.

<OFFER>

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens QB



Logically, it seems Flacco's fantasy stock is about to skyrocket. Last year, the Ravens showed they were willing to let him drop back to pass at least 500 times over the course of a full season; that is a magic number for fantasy quarterback value. The addition of Anquan Boldin certainly helps the receiving corps and Ray Rice gives Baltimore an elite running game.


Those positive traits have some pundits listing Flacco as a top-10 quarterback, but they obscure the negatives of the situation. Boldin's history says he is a dink-and-dunk receiver and therefore isn't likely to help Flacco improve much upon his 9.9 vertical yards per attempt (YPA) total from last season (a vertical pass being defined as an aerial thrown 11 or more yards downfield).


To put that total into perspective, the 9.9 YPA ranked tied for 19th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks; he tied with Mark Sanchez, who few would call a vertical threat in his rookie year. The two quarterbacks he finished one-tenth and two-tenths of a yard ahead of were Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton.


Having that type of company in a downfield passing metric shows just how bad the Ravens' vertical game was last year. Since Boldin isn't the likely solution to the problem, it will fall on the shoulders of Donte Stallworth to turn this around. Given Stallworth's durability issues, it is quite a risk to assume he will be successful in this endeavor.


If he isn't, Flacco will once again post mediocre vertical numbers. Add that weakness to a tough schedule (the toughest of any top-flight quarterback, according to the schedule rankings in my draft guide) and they equal too much risk to consider Flacco a safe top-10 quarterback selection.


Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts RB



Addai's fantasy calling card last year was being the goal-line finisher back on one of the most high-powered offenses in the league; it helped him score 10 TDs on the ground and add three through the passing game.

Addai's issue is simple: He really isn't a very good ball carrier. He gained only 5.5 yards per attempt in the good blocking YPA (GBYPA) metric; this statistic measures how well a runner does on plays where he receives quality blocking (which is loosely defined as having every blocker on a play win his point-of-attack blocking battle). That total ranked tied for 38th for running backs with 100 or more rushes last year.


That isn't the first time Addai has struggled in GBYPA, and it is almost certainly the reason Indianapolis drafted Donald Brown last season. Brown had some issues in his rookie campaign, but his 7.5 GBYPA would have ranked in the top 10 if he had posted 22 more rush attempts. This means Indianapolis will do all it can to move carries from Addai to Brown, and the reduced workload will cause Addai's value to plummet.


Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles WR



Anyone who is the No. 2 wide receiver on an Andy Reid-directed offense is bound to be considered a highly prized fantasy football commodity. Throw in his superb physical skills and it is easy to see why Maclin is being touted as a top-25 pick.


The problem here is that Maclin has the toughest 2010 schedule of any wide receiver in the league. He is due to face nine "red-rated" cornerbacks; "red-rated" means they gave up fewer than 7 yards per attempt last year, which is the barometer for superb play at that position.


Then add this: In Week 1, right out of the gate, Maclin has to face Al Harris; later in the season, he faces Rashean Mathis and Cortland Finnegan. None of those CBs were "red-rated" by my metrics, but each one of them has top-flight coverage ability. Maclin has a tough road in virtually every game this fall. That type of schedule difficulty dramatically lowers the percentage chance that this will be his breakout campaign.


Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons TE



The combination of Gonzalez, QB Matt Ryan, WR Roddy White and a healthy Michael Turner (at RB) is a quartet that could be considered among the finest in the NFL.


The fallacy in that line of thinking is that the numbers show Gonzalez is easily the weakest member of that group. He used to dominate the league on downfield passes -- but last season, his 7.6 vertical YPA ranked 32nd at his position. At this point in his career, he is more of a dink-and-dunk pass-catcher than a wide receiver playing tight end. He will still be viewed as one of the elite tight ends, but it isn't worth it to pay a premium for someone whose best receiving skills are of the short-pass variety.

 

[HacheMan]

Scheduling for Success
There's a lot of stuff piled up in the back of my mind: Sporkle answers, certain scenes from the movie "Wild Things" and fantasy cheatsheets. At this time of year, I always shove one more thing back there: NFL schedules during the fantasy playoffs.

I understand why many of my esteemed colleagues don't pay any attention to the schedules in Weeks 15 and 16 when drafting. We all know how hard it is just to get to those weeks and the potential effectiveness of NFL defenses can be quite unpredictable.

That said, I believe that winning your league's championship is the only goal because that's where the money is (entertainment purposes only, of course). So just getting to the playoffs and then finding atrocious matchups is not something that interests me. I'm not Karl Malone or the Buffalo Bills.

And although we don't have an exact idea of which defenses will be Swiss cheese and which will be steel curtains, we can make some very educated guesses. For example, we knew before last season that the Lions, Browns, Rams, Chiefs and Bucs were going to be bad defensively. They ended up being the worst five defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed. We thought the Ravens, Steelers and Vikings would be matchups to avoid. They finished 3rd, 5th and 6th respectively.

Editor's Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, cheatsheets, tiers and more, get the 2010 Draft Guide!

Of course, there will be surprises among defenses. The Giants were decimated by injuries last year and surprisingly ended up as a unit to attack weekly. The Packers took huge leaps forward out of the 3-4 and were impossible to run against. The Titans were an absolute sieve for much of the year. But by in large, we can prognosticate accurately here. After all, that's what this whole thing is about anyway.

I'm NOT recommending altering your draft strategy or scratching players off your board because of playoff schedules. But if you find yourself in a close decision on draft day, it's at least an excellent tiebreaker.

<BIG>FIVE FANTASY PLAYOFF SCHEDULES THAT SCARE ME</BIG>
1. BROWNS: Week 15 at Bengals, Week 16 vs. Ravens
Don't sleep on Cincy's defense. The corner duo of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph is really underrated and Antwan Odom (Achilles) is reportedly very healthy. I can't see a single Brown on any one of my rosters right now.
2. BEARS: Week 15 at Vikings, Week 16 vs. Jets
The Vikings' secondary is a question mark, but the defensive line will put Jay Cutler under plenty of pressure. Then, a potentially freezing cold home game against the vaunted Jets is a nightmare.
3. GIANTS: Week 15 vs. Eagles, Week 16 at Packers
Again, two really cold games against two really aggressive defenses.
4. EAGLES: Week 15 at Giants, Week 16 vs. Vikings
We're expecting a big bounce-back from the Giants' defense now that they've shored up their safety spot and are much healthier along the defensive line.
5. VIKINGS: Week 15 vs. Bears, Week 16 at Eagles
With a healthy Brian Urlacher and new toy Julius Peppers, expect significant improvement from the Bears' D this year.

Editor's Note: Create your own fantasy league at myfantasyleague.com!

<BIG>FIVE FANTASY PLAYOFF SCHEDULES TO PREY ON</BIG>
1. BUCS: Week 15 vs. Lions, Week 16 vs. Seahawks
It's hard to get excited about the Bucs with such a young quarterback and receiving corps, but there's a chance they'll show significant development by this time.
2. SEAHAWKS: Week 15 vs. Falcons, Week 16 at Bucs
Will Matt Hasselbeck still be under center by this time? Also, Deion Branch and Julius Jones should at least be phased out by the time these great matchups roll around.
3. COLTS: Week 15 vs. Jaguars, Week 16 at Raiders
It's always worth noting that the Colts are notorious for resting players late in the season.
4. RAVENS: Week 15 vs. Saints, Week 16 at Browns
Career years from guys like Darren Sharper won't happen for the Saints again.
5. DOLPHINS: Week 15 vs. Bills, Week 16 vs. Lions
Two home games in sunny South Florida in December -- lucky break for Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall.

 

[HacheMan]

The secret art of WR screens
Wide receiver screens are the fantasy equivalent of money found at the bottom of the dryer. Receivers get a catch and some easy yardage, all for what amounts to a long handoff. In point-per-reception leagues, receiver screens make great investment protection: in a pinch, you know Julian Edelman is going to do something if you have to throw him out there.

At Football Outsiders, we keep track of receiver screens: which teams throw a lot of them, which teams don't, and which receivers get the most gimmies. A quick look through the 2009 data should help us predict who'll benefit from some easy catches and yards this year.

First, here are the 10 teams that threw the most receiver screens last year:

Team - Screens
Patriots - 45
Broncos - 36
Bears - 33
Colts - 33
Seahawks - 32
Niners - 31
Rams - 31
Texans - 27
Cardinals - 25
Jaguars - 25

When you think of receiver screens, you think of Wes Welker, who caught 23 of the 25 thrown to him last year for 185 yards. If Welker is limited at the start of the season, you can count on Edelman to pick up some of the slack: Edelman caught 12 screens for 92 yards in Welker's absence.

Josh McDaniel brought the screens with him from New England to Denver, using them to get the ball into Brandon Marshall's impatient hands. Marshall caught 17 of the 20 screens thrown to him, dropping two. Marshall gained 125 yards on the screens, though 49 of them came on one play. Four of the screens came against the Colts, when Marshall caught 21 passes; two came in the fourth quarter, when he was gunning for a record. Marshall is gone, but McDaniels' love of screens should continue: Eddie Royal is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and rookie Demaryius Thomas has both the speed to turn a screen into a touchdown and the blocking ability to spring Royal.

Colts screens are usually the result of Peyton Manning audibles; if he sees a defender playing off, he'll toss a quick one to pick up some easy yards. As a result, the screens were spread about evenly among Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Bears screens were often direct attempts to make Devin Hester or Earl Bennett do something fun. Hester caught 11 of 12 screens thrown to him, but except for one 33-yard run against the Browns, he didn't do much with them. Bennett, meanwhile, caught 12 of the 13 screens thrown to him for 129 yards, including 23, 29 and 30 yard runs. Rest assured that with Mike Martz coaching the Bears offense, all receivers will get ample opportunities.

The Niners used receiver screens the way other teams use draw plays: as 3rd-and-long surrender flags. Michael Crabtree was a 11-of-12 on screens for a whopping 28 yards; many of the screens came on 3rd-and-16 plays just after he joined the team, so they should be filed in the "let's get the rookie a touch" category. Josh Morgan was 10-of-12 on receiver screens for 64 yards. The Niners may want to rethink how they use this particular tactic.

Many of the teams near the bottom of the list used screens in an attempt to jump-start their passing games or protect their quarterbacks; the Rams, in particular, called a lot of screens because nothing else worked. The Cardinals, like the Colts, threw screens to keep defenders honest. The Texans, of course, threw a lot of screens to Andre Johnson (he was 13 of 15, with 25 and 59 yard completions), but they also liked to hide running back Steve Slaton as a wideout in trips packages and toss screens to him; Slaton caught 5-of-6 screens thrown to him as a wideout, amassing 83 yards. Chances are, the Texans will keep plays like these in the gameplans, whether Slaton or some other back benefits.

For a complete list of WR rankings, check out Rotoworld's Draft Guide by clicking here.

On the other side of the spectrum are the teams that rarely use receiver screens:

Team - Screens
Raiders - 1
Titans - 3
Packers - 4
Bills - 6
Panthers - 6

Screens aren't vertical, of course, so Al Davis probably forbids them. It's surprising to see the Packers on this list, and the Bills will probably bring back the screens with Chan Gailey running the show, but the lack of screens is a reason to lay off Titans receivers and Panthers receivers not named Steve Smith when filling out the bottom of a roster. Kenny Britt looks like a good player, but I would like him a lot better if I thought he'd get another 10-12 catches and 90-100 yards purely because of the scheme.

Create your own fantasy team

At Football Outsiders, we also keep track of tight end screens; that is, screens thrown to a player who is actually lined up at tight end, not Dallas Clark in the slot. The Redskins led the league with 11 tight end screens, seven of them to Fred Davis, four to Chris Cooley. The Broncos were second with 10 screen passes, nine to Daniel Graham. Long story short: if you are looking for some cheap PPR screen production, look no further than Denver.

 

[HacheMan]

AFC Projected Carries
I'm so used to playing in keeper leagues that my outlook often defaults toward a long-term view where talent trumps situation. It's a mandatory mindset in Dynasty leagues, but it can be dangerous to look at redraft leagues through that distorted coke bottle. In this era of committee backfields, situation and expected workload are often a better predictor of fantasy production. Pure talent is worthless without the ball in its hands.

This column, and its NFC cousin to follow next Wednesday, will project the workload for every team. Consider it advanced draft preparation. Remember, the average rushes per year for each coach is only at their current job. For coaches with four years or more at their current locale, the past two years have been weighted against the previous average. We are only counting attempts from running backs

Baltimore Ravens
Coach: John Harbaugh | Average Rushes/Year: 470
Projected 2010 Carries: 415

This offense belongs to one of the league's premier coordinators in Cam Cameron. He's ready to take the reins off third-year signal caller Joe Flacco, now with Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth at his disposal. Cameron still leans toward the run, though, and his stellar track record with LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, and now Ray Rice speaks for itself.

Ray Rice: 255
Willis McGahee: 105
LeRon McClain: 45
Jalen Parmele: 10

I'm not buying the McGahee trade talk. His $3.6 million salary is prohibitive and contenders aren't typically in the business of trading quality depth. I expect Rice, McGahee, and McClain to return in the same roles as last season. Why mess with the fifth most successful ground attack in the game? The offensive line has been in flux throughout training camp, but it remains one of the top ten units in the league.

Buffalo Bills
Coach: Chan Gailey | Average Rushes/Year: 450
Projected 2010 Carries: 445

The Bills have one of the most bleak offensive outlooks in the league, but there is a silver lining here. Gailey has been a football nomad since his first stint as the Steelers' offensive coordinator in 1994, and he's been successful with moderate talent at every stop. It's true that Gailey has a strong history of saddling up one workhorse as the primary back. It's even more true that Gailey has a knack for adapting his philosophy to his personnel.

Fred Jackson: 190
C.J. Spiller: 150
Marshawn Lynch: 105

F-Jax is "shooting for" for a return from his broken hand by the season opener, which is on the optimistic end of the scale. I took 10 carries from his projection and split them between Spiller and Lynch. Jackson should remain the primary inside runner. He's clearly outplayed Lynch for two years, and Spiller doesn't run between the tackles.

Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 399
Projected 2010 Carries: 435

Lewis always wanted a smashmouth offense to go with a hard-hitting defense, and it finally came together in 2009. It was just in time, too, as it coincided with Carson Palmer's fall from elite quarterback status. The upgrades at receiver and tight end bode well for a slight bounceback from Palmer, but this will remain a run-heavy attack.

Cedric Benson: 310
Bernard Scott: 110
Brian Leonard: 15

Benson will hit that mark if he stays healthy, but that's a big "if." He's never played a full 16-game season, and he was one of the most overused backs in the NFL last season. Scott has earned a bigger role in a change-of-pace capacity, and that total marks an increase of 36 carries.

Cleveland Browns
Coach: Eric Mangini | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 401
Projected 2010 Carries: 415

The Browns ran the ball 55 times more than they passed the ball in Mangini's first season, largely because they were the one team in the league that could commiserate with the Raiders' quarterback situation. If Jake Delhomme manages to hold onto the starting job, it's not going to be much different in Mangini's final season.

Montario Hardesty: 175
Jerome Harrison: 170
James Davis: 35
Peyton Hillis: 35

Hardesty's recent knee "tweak" killed his offseason momentum, leaving Harrison as the favorite to open the season as the starter. Ultimately, this figures to be a "hot hand" situation. Mangini spent all of last year looking for reasons not to crown Harrison as the feature back, and he loves the way Hardesty is "slapped together" at 220-230 pounds. Don't expect weekly reliability out of either back.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!

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Denver Broncos
Coach: Josh McDaniels | Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2010 Carries: 395

The Broncos were a pass-first team in McDaniels' first year, but the defense's dominant start did allow him to lean on a strong ground game through November. That won't be the case this year with All-Pro Elvis Dumervil taking nearly 50 percent of the team's sacks to the sidelines. Kyle Orton will be playing catch-up all season long.

Knowshon Moreno: 260
Correll Buckhalter: 95
Justin Fargas: 25
LenDale White: 15

Moreno (hamstring) is expected to be fully healthy by the end of preseason action. On the heels of an impressive offseason, he gets a slight uptick in touches at Buckhalter's expense. Buck is nursing a wonky upper back/neck as he enters his age-32 season. Neither Fargas nor White is a threat to Moreno's weekly touches. He's a rock-solid RB2.

Houston Texans
Coach: Gary Kubiak | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 371
Projected 2010 Carries: 370

Kubiak has presided over one of the league's more pass-friendly offenses over the past few seasons while maintaining at right around 370 rushing attempts per year. New coordinator Rick Dennison has a background in the ground game, but the personnel (Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Jacoby Jones) dictates a continued reliance on the aerial attack.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year's draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate's season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster's sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

See Arian Foster's projection and rank in our online draft guide.

Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Jim Caldwell | Average Rushes/Year: 338
Projected 2010 Carries: 355

Only one team in the league (Cardinals) ran the ball less than the Colts in Caldwell's debut season. Indy's 3.5 yards per carry was also the second most futile mark in the NFL. Team president Bill Polian laid the blame squarely at the feet of his offensive line, yet he did nothing substantive to upgrade the unit. This will remain the Peyton Manning Show.

Joseph Addai: 190
Donald Brown: 140
Mike Hart: 25

Brown's assorted injuries and pass-protection woes ("God damn-it, Donald!") led to Addai hogging 65 percent of the carries last season. That won't happen again this year. Addai is due to hit free agency in 2011, and the Colts want to see what they have in their explosive 2009 first-rounder. Addai is being overdrafted as a reliable RB2.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 390
Projected 2010 Carries: 390

Over the last two seasons, David Garrard's pass attempts have skyrocketed while the Jags' rushing attempts have plummeted. That's not by design. Del Rio wishes he could return to the glory days of 2007 (522 rush attempts vs. 469 pass attempts), but his defense keeps putting him behind the eight-ball.

Maurice Jones-Drew: 300
Deji Karim: 50
Rashad Jennings: 40

As long as he stays healthy, Jones-Drew is one of the handful of backs in the league that can be counted on for 300 carries. Possibly the most well-rounded player at his position, MJD rarely comes off the field. Keep an eye out for rookie Karim, who turned heads in offseason practices. He should give Jennings a run for the primary backup job while picking up occasional third-down work.

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Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Todd Haley | Average Rushes/Year: 377
Projected 2010 Carries: 390

Haley and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis are both steeped in the passing game, but they also believe in running the ball more than enough to keep the defense honest. Haley's lead back garnered at least 14 carries in all but two games last year.

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs' MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it's enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Miami Dolphins
Coach: Tony Sparano | Average Rushes/Year: 432
Projected 2010 Carries: 425

Make no mistake, Sparano and coordinator Dan Henning both love a run-heavy, ball-control offense. Chad Henne's increased pass attempts over the second half of the season can be traced to Ronnie Brown's Lisfranc fracture, turning the potent 1-2 punch into a leg-draining one-man Ricky show.

Ronnie Brown: 210
Ricky Williams: 185
Patrick Cobbs: 30

Brown was pronounced 100 percent upon entering camp, and he immediately opened the first preseason game as the starter. He carried the ball 214 times in 16 games two years ago, and that's a good model for this season provided he stays healthy. Even at age 33, Williams may be able to approach last season's impressive percentage numbers. His carries, though, will drop back down to the 10-12 range per week.

New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 415
Projected 2010 Carries: 410

Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker are as respected as any trio in the game, so the running game gets left behind in the Patriots' heavy-spread offense, right? Not so much. The four-man backfield committee has finished in the top-10 in the league in rushing attempts in each of the past two seasons.

Laurence Maroney: 155
Fred Taylor: 80
Sammy Morris: 80
Kevin Faulk: 50
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 45

Maroney is the favorite for carries if only because he has the youngest legs by nearly a decade. If we've learned anything about Bill Belichick, though, we know that he plays to his personnel depending on matchups. The game plan is a guessing game from week to week, and Maroney could very well start out behind Taylor and Morris for a second straight season. I wouldn't count on any of the backs topping a dozen carries in a game if they're all suited up and healthy.

New York Jets
Coach: Rex Ryan | Average Rushes/Year: 533
Projected 2010 Carries: 475

We knew going in that Ryan would hitch his wagon to the running game. Throw in a rookie quarterback and a dominant run-blocking line, and you have the makings of the most skewed run-to-pass ratio in the league. With Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes now in the Big Apple, Mark Sanchez's training wheels will begin to come off this year. Ryan is on record as suggesting the "ground 'n' pound" will balance out in 2010.

Shonn Greene: 285
LaDainian Tomlinson: 140
Joe McKnight: 50

Greene, Ryan's new bell cow, will be the primary runner on early downs, but there will be a concerted effort to keep him healthy after the bumps and scrapes of his rookie season. Even if we expect the Jets' rushing attempts to decrease, there are still enough carries around for Tomlinson to touch the ball 10 times a week in a passing-down role.

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Oakland Raiders
Coach: Tom Cable | Average Rushes/Year: 395
Projected 2010 Carries: 390

It's hard to get a read on Cable's tendencies. He's been hamstrung with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback and a patchwork offensive line. One would think the former line coach's loyalty would be to the ground game, but last year saw a tremendous dropoff in both rushing attempts and ratio. He should have a better shot at balance this year with Jason Campbell and an improved defense.

Michael Bush: 190
Darren McFadden: 170
Michael Bennett: 30

Cable has given mixed signals on his intentions for the backfield, mentioning both a tandem attack and a "best man wins" competition. Bush is clearly a stronger inside runner while McFadden operates much better in space. My gut tells me McFadden is in for a breakout season, but Bush is the safe bet to lead this team in carries. Create your own fantasy league.



Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin | Average Rushes/Year: 413
Projected 2010 Carries: 410

Team president Art Rooney II wants to return to the Steelers' blue collar roots by running the ball more. Tomlin wants to run the ball more. Even Hines Ward wants to run the ball more. The man with the keys to the offense, coordinator Bruce Arians, isn't so sure that's the answer. There will be an effort to lean on the ground game until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but Arians' pass-heavy unit finished as the most dominant offense in franchise history last year. And he knows it.

Rashard Mendenhall: 300
Mewelde Moore: 45
Isaac Redman: 40
Jonathan Dwyer: 25

Job security. Mendenhall has it. By my count, the Steelers' starter is one of only seven every-down backs in the NFL heading into the 2010 season. Moore is a pure backup, best utilized as a two-minute drill specialist. Dwyer's training camp has been just short of disastrous. Redman is picking up buzz for the second straight August, but he didn't even make the team after starring in preseason action last year. This is Mendenhall's backfield. He's a strong RB1 with star potential.

San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 413
Projected 2010 Carries: 400

Turner has traditionally boasted a stellar ground game with a designated feature back carrying the load. LaDainian Tomlinson's decline phase and a poor run-blocking offensive line were difficult hurdles to overcome last season. We should start to see a turnaround this year with fresh legs in the backfield.

Ryan Mathews: 270
Darren Sproles: 75
Mike Tolbert: 45
Shawnbrey McNeal: 10

Mathews was drafted as the successor to franchise icon Tomlinson, and he'll step right in as the lead back and a borderline RB1. Sproles is arguably the most effective and explosive passing-down back in the league, so his role figures to stay the same. Keep an eye on Tolbert as a short-yardage vulture. He ran as the first-team tailback at the goal-line in the preseason opener.

Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 428
Projected 2010 Carries: 430

The NFL's longest-tenured head coach is a throw-back in facial hair and offensive philosophy. Johnson isn't a prototypical smashmouth back in the vain of "three yards and a cloud of dust" Eddie George, but he held up just fine to a league-leading 358 carries. The O-Line, already one of the league's elite units, actually upgraded on the interior.

Chris Johnson: 335
Javon Ringer: 70
LeGarrette Blount: 25

Johnson's transformation from exciting RB1 to "CJ2K" coincided with Vince Young's ascension to the starting lineup and LenDale White's banishment to the bench. With White out of the picture altogether, Ringer is more of a pure backup as opposed to a battering ram complement. Johnson is a good bet to the lead the NFL in carries for a second straight season. Be sure to grab Ringer as a "handcuff."

 

[HacheMan]

The Upside Index: WRs, TEs

This is the second part in a series that ranks fantasy starters according to upside. As explained in the first installment, The Upside Index considers talent, surrounding talent, opportunity, coaching tendencies, age, and any possible injury impact to identify the statistical ceilings of top players at each fantasy-relevant position.

So let's be clear: These are not Rotoworld's 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings. Those can be found here. The Upside Index aims higher.

[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

1. Calvin Johnson - He's the biggest, fastest receiver in football, but talent is not the sole reason Megatron gets the "upside" nod over Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. The Lions dedicated their offseason to improving the passing game. The result will be more single teams and looser double coverage for Johnson, as opponents are forced to account for deep threat tight end Tony Scheffler, explosive pass-catching back Jahvid Best, and second receiver upgrade Nate Burleson. In what now has the look of a pass-happy attack, Johnson has 1,600-yard, 15-score potential.

2. Andre Johnson - The NFL's leading receiver in back-to-back seasons, Johnson also led the league in catches of 20-plus yards last year, set a touchdowns career high, and averaged an astounding eight catches for 116 yards per game with five TDs in Weeks 9-16. A.J. doesn't top this list because odds are he won't finish second in the league in targets again. The Texans' ground game will improve, Jacoby Jones has earned more snaps, and Johnson's sensational late-season run occurred after the year-ending loss of tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels is back.

3. Randy Moss - The Patriots' decreased usage of spread formations and age (33) work against Moss' upside, but he's safely in the top-three receivers. The contract-year wideout has enjoyed the best offseason of his life, by all accounts, and it isn't like the Pats are a strong bet to run more while returning last year's same backfield. New England's offense will remain pass-first, and Moss will be relied on more heavily as Wes Welker gets up to speed early in the season.

4. Larry Fitzgerald - The loss of Kurt Warner is a far bigger blow to Arizona's offense as a whole than it is to Fitzgerald. He's more than buoyed by Anquan Boldin's departure. Since 2005, Fitz has averaged seven catches for 106 yards and a TD per game with Boldin out of the lineup, and his weekly averages fall by just one catch and seven yards going from Warner to Matt Leinart. Fitzgerald finished as the No. 2 fantasy receiver when Josh McCown started six games in 2005. Elite receivers overcome mediocre QBs, and Fitzgerald is now a threat to lead the NFL in targets.

5. Greg Jennings - He's been Green Bay's best receiver three years running. The deep threat Jennings couldn't capitalize on his significant talent edge over Donald Driver last year due to faulty pass protection, but the Packers solved those problems this offseason. The No. 4 overall fantasy receiver as recently as 2008, Jennings will reemerge as the go-to guy for the best young quarterback in football as Aaron Rodgers gets more time to throw. If his performance in Green Bay's preseason opener was any indication, Rodgers is a serious candidate for 40 touchdowns.

6. Roddy White - Tony Gonzalez definitely doesn't hurt. Despite the Hall of Fame tight end's addition in 2009, White tied Andre Johnson for second in the league in targets while fighting off a year-long knee injury and Matt Ryan's debilitating turf toe. The Falcons honed their downfield passing attack this spring, and White is their only deep threat. His upside is bolstered by Atlanta's intent to keep Michael Turner under 300 carries, as well as Michael Jenkins' severe shoulder injury.

7. Miles Austin - Dallas' selection of Dez Bryant and plan to use Jason Witten in the red zone more slightly cap Austin's scoring upside, but let's not forget that the fourth-year receiver is entering just his first season as an every-down player. He started all of nine games last year and finished as the No. 3 fantasy wideout. His quarterback has the quickest release in football, and we love Austin's new role as a slot receiver on passing downs. He's a threat for 100 receptions.

8. DeSean Jackson - If the preseason opener was any indication, the Eagles have two QBs capable of filling the stat sheet. Michael Vick's resurgence makes the possibility of an already-unlikely Kevin Kolb flop that much less concerning. Though Philly's spread-the-wealth offense may prevent D-Jax from ever catching 100 balls, his unmatched big-play ability will make him a consistent threat to lead the league in receiving yards. He's an extremely dangerous player.

9. Brandon Marshall - No, Marshall probably won't top the receptions century mark for a fourth straight season. He now plays for a team that is built to run the ball. But we can safely expect his typically mediocre yards-per-catch average to rise, and there's certainly no better red-zone receiver on Miami's roster. He's still a candidate for 1,200 yards and double-digit scores.

10. Reggie Wayne - Wayne ranks relatively low due to pass protection concerns that may decrease deep-ball chances, his age (32 in November), and the expected growth of second-year starters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. As explained in The Upside Index's first installment, Indianapolis is also likely to run the ball more, and more efficiently. Wayne is a safe fantasy pick, but lacks the upside of younger options in offenses that project to force feed their top receiver.

11. Dwayne Bowe - Each player in the top ten will be gone by round three of your draft. Bowe is consistently available in the mid-fourth to fifth, making him the best value of The Upside Index's top-11 receivers. And there are plenty of reasons to have faith: new OC Charlie Weis' history of coaching up wideouts, Bowe's participation in Larry Fitzgerald's summer camp, and his sterling preseason. Bowe has bought into coach Todd Haley's philosophies and has explosion potential.

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12. Michael Crabtree - The next step is becoming the No. 1 receiver on his own team, and we expect Crabtree to "pass" Vernon Davis for that distinction this season. Crabtree proved NFL-ready immediately after ending his six-week holdout last year, earning a starting job in Week 7. He's now had a full training camp and half-season to take in Jimmy Raye's offense. Crabtree's quarterback and the 49ers' run-first mindset do hold him back a bit. His upside is not quite elite.

13. Sidney Rice - He'd be much higher if he was healthy. One of the youngest players selected in the 2007 draft, Rice is entering just his age-24 season, was the No. 8 fantasy receiver in 2009, is in a contract year, and will continue to profit from Brett Favre's return. Unfortunately, his hip injury has lingered deep into camp. Rice remains a terrific value/upside pick in the fifth round of drafts.

14. Marques Colston - His pre-camp knee scope no longer a concern, Colston returned to the practice field with a vengeance. He led all receivers in catches and yards in the Saints' early-August Black & Gold Scrimmage, before drawing rave reviews last week from none other than Boston reporters during intersquad practices with the Patriots. Robert Meachem might overtake Colston to be New Orleans' No. 1 receiver in a year or two, but it's not happening this season.

15. Johnny Knox - Being the go-to guy in a Mike Martz offense has perks. Just once has Mad Mike coached a No. 1 receiver who finished outside the top-ten fantasy wideouts ('02 -- Torry Holt, who ranked 15th with a 91/1,302/4 line) so long as as Martz has had full control of the offense. Knox looked every bit the Martz receiver in Chicago's exhibition opener at San Diego, creating insane separation by getting in and out of his breaks with devastating quickness.

[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

1. Jermichael Finley - Don't think Finley can be the top fantasy tight end? Too late: He already has been. After recovering from a midseason knee injury last year, Finley paced the position in scoring from Week 13 on, not including a six-catch, 159-yard demolition of Arizona's safeties in January's playoff loss. No Packer was targeted more over the final nine games, and Finley did it all as a backup. Since promoted to the starting lineup, the 23-year-old is poised to pass Donald Driver as Aaron Rodgers' first read underneath.

2. Antonio Gates - Aside from perhaps Malcom Floyd, no Charger benefits from Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson's holdouts as much as Gates. McNeill's absence will force Philip Rivers to take fewer shots downfield, making Gates his primary over-middle or check-down target. Gates also "inherits" the top red-zone receiver role from V-Jax. He's 30, but last season's career highs in yards, yards per catch, and yards-after-catch average show Gates hasn't slowed down.

3. Dallas Clark - Clark returns from a season in which he finished second to just Vernon Davis in fantasy points and joined Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends in league history to catch 100 passes. With left tackle Charlie Johnson (foot) out indefinitely and problems across the Indy front five, Clark stands to capitalize underneath as Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon suffer.

4. Brent Celek - While the depth at tight end makes us wary of selecting Celek as early as he's going in drafts, he definitely offers elite fantasy upside. The 25-year-old averaged eight grabs for 104 yards per game in Kevin Kolb's two 2009 starts, and Andy Reid hasn't coached an offense that finished outside the top ten in pass attempts since 2003. Kolb's decreased arm strength in comparison to Donovan McNabb's could also translate to more short passes to Celek, as opposed to vertical throws to split end Jeremy Maclin.

5. Jason Witten - Witten's two-touchdown 2009 season stands out as fluky considering he approached career highs in receptions (94) and yards (1,030). Roy Williams undeservingly caught seven scores with Dallas' coaching staff constantly force feeding the $54 million flop. The Cowboys' trade up for Dez Bryant confirms that they'll no longer go all-out to make things happen for Williams, and they've made a concerted effort to design more red-zone pass plays to Witten.

6. Vernon Davis - There wasn't a bigger fantasy breakout than Davis last year. (We'll politely take a bow.) But there are plenty of things working against the reigning No. 1 tight end this year. Michael Crabtree is the 49ers' go-to pass catcher of the future, Alex Smith's training camp has left a lot to be desired, and we'll see lots less of the spread formations from which Davis did the bulk of last year's damage. The ability is still there, but Davis is certainly a poor bet to repeat his tight end record-tying 13 touchdowns, and will likely see his yards and catches decline as well.

7. Zach Miller - Jason Campbell started games in D.C. from 2006-2009. It took a year-ending injury for his tight end to rank worse than eighth at the position in fantasy during that span. Miller's knack for finding defensive soft spots is similar to Chris Cooley's, and the Raiders' tight end has a solid three inches on the Redskins'. It can't hurt that Campbell has no Santana Moss to throw to in Oakland, or that Tom Cable's staff has designs on featuring Miller in scoring position.

8. Tony Gonzalez - Gonzo's move to a run-first offense that actually had other weapons hardly took a chunk out of his production. He ranked fifth among fantasy tight ends in 2009. Gonzalez's decline is nearing as he enters his age-34 season, however, and the return of explosive slot receiver Harry Douglas could cut into his targets over the middle. He's being overdrafted.

9. Chris Cooley - At the opposite end of the spectrum is Cooley, who routinely lasts into the double-digit rounds of drafts. Gonzalez goes in the fifth or sixth. Are we missing something? Cooley has the best quarterback of his life, a gaping zero at No. 2 receiver to "contend" with for targets, and a new role reminiscent of Dallas Clark's in Indianapolis. He was Donovan McNabb's favorite target in the preseason opener, and it should stay that way into the regular season.

10. Tony Scheffler - As alluded to in the Calvin Johnson blurb, the Lions have the look of a pass-heavy offense. Their best player (Johnson) is a receiver, their tailback (Jahvid Best) is a killer pass catcher, and their signing of Nate Burleson was designed to open up the field for others. Enter Scheffler, whose strength is catching the football, and who will serve as an every-down player for the first time in his career due to Detroit's constant use of two-tight end sets. They don't have a third receiver.

 

[HacheMan]

10-Team Mock Draft
When a prior commitment forced Gregg Rosenthal to bow out of the August 12 National Football Post Expert's League draft (standard-scoring) at the last minute, I was more than happy to pinch hit. This draft will be played out, and the winner receives a flat-screen TV. Incentive won't be an issue.

I don't have a wealth of experience in 10-team leagues, but one thing I have learned is that fielding a strong starting lineup with no weaknesses is far more important than acquiring depth. With more quality players available via the waiver wire, the in-season fishing hole stays stocked with prime catches on a weekly basis. Owners can scare up a legit flex option with very little trouble.

As a corollary, it's crucial to draft a reliable weekly asset at quarterback and tight end rather than waiting to cherry pick a trendy breakout player such as Kevin Kolb or John Carlson.

If I'm going to score that flat-screen TV, I do have one hurdle to clear: I drew the eighth draft slot out ten. Starting with the first Rotoworld magazine's mock draft back in May, I've been calling the last third of this year's first round "Death Valley." It's where even successful owners go to have their bones picked clean by the vultures. The players available at No. 8 aren't appreciably more appetizing than those available at No. 14 or even No. 18. Habitual winners like to have the odds stacked in their corner, not the other way around. Stay out of the back end of the first-round this year if at all possible.

Create your own fantasy league.

Round One

1. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN - Hardcore Sports Radio
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - National Football Post
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX - NFL Gridiron Gab
4. Ray Rice, RB, BAL - Just a Bit Outside
5. Michael Turner, RB, ATL - CBS Sports
6. Frank Gore, RB, SF - Yahoo!
7. Randy Moss, WR, NE - ESPN
8. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU - Rotoworld
9. Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Sports Illustrated
10. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: My pre-draft plan was to target Steven Jackson or Rashard Mendenhall with the No. 8 pick, but that was assuming the consensus top fantasy receiver would be gone. I couldn't pass up Johnson. ... It's hard to fault ESPN for the Moss stunner, though. His three-year average in New England is 83/1,255/16.

Round Two

11. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC - Fantasy Sharks
12. Cedric Benson, RB, CIN - Sports Illustrated
13. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Rotoworld
14. Ryan Mathews, RB, SD - ESPN
15. Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ - Yahoo!
16. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI - CBS Sports
17. Roddy White, WR, ATL - Just a Bit Outside
18. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB - NFL Gridiron Gab
19. Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN - National Football Post
20. Drew Brees, QB, NO - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: Two surprises kick off the second round. Charles went 11th overall in a non-PPR league. Fantasy Sharks may be drinking our Charles kool-aid at a time when much of the fantasy world has cooled on the Chiefs' backfield. ... Benson went ahead of Mendenhall, Mathews, and Greene -- three backs ranked a full tier higher in our projections. ... Mendenhall ended up coming back to me after all, so I'm off to a better than expected start.

Round Three

21. Ryan Grant, RB, GB - Hardcore Sports Radio
22. Peyton Manning, QB, IND - National Football Post
23. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI - NFL Gridiron Gab
24. Wes Welker, WR, NE - Just a Bit Outside
25. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - CBS Sports
26. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND - Yahoo!
27. Miles Austin, WR, DAL - ESPN
28. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - Rotoworld
29. Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Sports Illustrated
30. Dallas Clark, TE, IND - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: As the draft snaked back around, I had my eye on two players: Calvin Johnson and Austin. Both went off the board just before my pick, forcing me to switch gears and target the best available running back with Thomas. ... I was shocked to see Welker gone by the 24th pick, which was earlier than he went off the board in most drafts last year -- when his knee was not a factor.

Round Four

31. Tony Romo, QB, DAL - Fantasy Sharks
32. Chris Wells, RB, ARI - Sports Illustrated
33. Tom Brady, QB, NE - Rotoworld
34. Matt Forte, RB, CHI - ESPN
35. Greg Jennings, WR, GB - Yahoo!
36. Marques Colston, WR, NO - CBS Sports
37. Matt Schaub, QB, HOU - Just a Bit Outside
38. Felix Jones, RB, DAL - NFL Gridiron Gab
39. Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - National Football Post
40. Steve Smith, WR, NYG - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: I entered the round with Romo, Brady, and Steve Smith (Carolina) highest on my list. After Romo was picked, the scarcity of elite QBs pushed me toward Brady. I figured I had a shot at Smith next round, knowing that I value him quite a bit higher than his ADP. ... Committee backs Forte and Jones were both surprising picks here. Rotoworld has them ranked several spots below Jonathan Stewart and Jahvid Best.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!

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Round Five

41. Antonio Gates, TE, SD - Hardcore Sports Radio
42. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI - National Football Post
43. Sidney Rice, WR, MIN - NFL Gridiron Gab
44. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - Just a Bit Outside
45. Joseph Addai, RB, IND - CBS Sports
46. Jahvid Best, RB, DET - Yahoo!
47. Steve Smith, WR, CAR - ESPN
48. Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Rotoworld
49. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Sports Illustrated
50. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: My most regrettable pick in the draft. I entered the round crossing my fingers for Smith, with Stewart and Best as fallback flex options. After the two backs went off the board, it looked like Smith was all mine -- until the World Wide Thiever snatched him out of my hands at the last minute. I went the safe route with Ocho even if Carson Palmer gives me the willies. ... Addai and McCoy are two more backs I would steer clear of in a non-PPR league. ... In a minor upset, Steve Smith North went off the board before Steve Smith South.

Round Six

51. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - Fantasy Sharks
52. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI - Sports Illustrated
53. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB - Rotoworld
54. Brett Favre, QB, MIN - ESPN
55. Philip Rivers, QB, SD - Yahoo!
56. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA - CBS Sports
57. Jason Witten, TE, DAL - Just a Bit Outside
58. Hines Ward, WR, PIT - NFL Gridiron Gab
59. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAX - National Football Post
60. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: Back on track. With Crabtree, Bowe, and Nicks gone, I see a sizable gap before the next receiver on my list. The best player available is my tight end of choice this year, Finley. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him atop the fantasy rankings at season's end. ... Rivers fell behind Cutler and Favre in this draft as the ninth QB. ... Despite the recent Ahmad Bradshaw love in Giants camp, Jacobs still went off the board two rounds higher.

Round Seven

61. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - Hardcore Sports Radio
62. Marion Barber, RB, DAL - National Football Post
63. Vernon Davis, TE, SF - NFL Gridiron Gab
64. Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - Just a Bit Outside
65. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA - CBS Sports
66. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI - Yahoo!'
67. Clinton Portis, RB, WAS - ESPN
68. Johnny Knox, WR, CHI - Rotoworld
69. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA - Sports Illustrated
70. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: It's now time to address my third receiver, and I love where I'm sitting as I target Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, and Dez Bryant -- all in the mid-20s on my cheatsheet. I pounced on Knox, Rotoworld's favorite breakout receiver. ... Barber, the Cowboys' starter, is offering good value three rounds after Felix Jones. ... I'd advise staying away from committee backs Forsett and Portis if this is the going rate.

See Johnny Knox's projection and rank in our online draft guide.

Round Eight

71. Devin Hester, WR, CHI - Fantasy Sharks
72. Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Sports Illustrated
73. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF - Rotoworld
74. Vincent Jackson, WR, SD - ESPN
75. Michael Bush, RB, OAK - Yahoo!
76. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL - CBS Sports
77. Donald Brown, RB, IND - Just a Bit Outside
78. Robert Meachem, WR, NO - NFL Gridiron Gab
79. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG - National Football Post
80. Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: With my three top receiver targets still available, I can afford an upside "swing for the fences" pick on Spiller as my third back. ... V-Jax went off the board one round ahead of Malcom Floyd. I think you'll see that reversed in the coming weeks. ... Bradshaw looks like a nice bargain here with Jacobs long gone. ... Harrison is drafted as the presumed starter in Cleveland; even if he does hold off Montario Hardesty, I'm not sure that's going to last into October.

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Round Nine

81. Jets Defense, D/ST, NYJ - Hardcore Sports Radio
82. Santana Moss, WR, WAS - National Football Post
83. Eli Manning, QB, NYG - NFL Gridiron Gab
84. Thomas Jones, RB, KC - Just a Bit Outside
85. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL - CBS Sports
86. Malcom Floyd, WR, SD - Yahoo!
87. Arian Foster, RB, HOU - ESPN
88. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL - Rotoworld
89. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN - Sports Illustrated
90. Carnell Williams, RB, TB - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: The Jets defense, fourth in Rotoworld's rankings, flies off the board with pick No. 81 -- more than four rounds before the next defense. ... One of my receiver targets is gone (Moss), but impact rookie Bryant slips to me as a WR4 thanks to his ankle sprain. Yes, I'm giddy. ... Arian Foster was the first Texans back drafted, and this was before Ben Tate's season-ending injury. Nice work by ESPN, pushing through the Slaton and Tate hype coming from all corners of the internet.

Round Ten

91. Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI - Fantasy Sharks
92. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF - Sports Illustrated
93. Mike Wallace, WR, PIT - Rotoworld
94. Ben Tate, RB, HOU - ESPN
95. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA - Yahoo!
96. Steve Breaston, WR, ARI - CBS Sports
97. Devin Thomas, WR, WAS - Just a Bit Outside
98. Owen Daniels, TE, HOU - NFL Gridiron Gab
99. Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI - National Football Post
100. Terrell Owens, WR, CIN - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: Deep in the middle of "best player available" mode, I'm happy to grab Wallace -- one of the receivers I had targeted all the way back in the seventh round. Santonio Holmes' replacement is projected as a low-end WR2 in Rotoworld's rankings, and I'm fully on board. ... Devin Thomas' standing as a third-stringer didn't deter Just a Bit Outside from grabbing him as a breakout candidate. ... Kolb may be unproven, but this is good value as the 12th QB drafted. His weapons rival those on the Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Saints and Vikes as the best in the game.

Round Eleven</STRONG

101. Dexter McCluster, WR, KC - Hardcore Sports Radio
102. Reggie Bush, RB, NO - National Football Post
103. Laurence Maroney, RB, NE - NFL Gridiron Gab
104. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Just a Bit Outside
105. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ - CBS Sports
106. Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU - Yahoo!
107. Chad Henne, QB, MIA - ESPN
108. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL - Rotoworld
109. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ - Sports Illustrated
110. Willis McGahee, RB, BAL - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: With my receiver shopping done, I have my eyes on the best QB available. One of my plans in all leagues this year is to land Big Ben as my backup, but I was forced to fall back on Ryan. Not a bad consolation prize. I was surprised to see Henne go just before him. ... Tomlinson and McGahee were gone before the Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners could apply the "handcuff." ... Jacoby Jones, another one of our favorite breakout candidates, may no longer be available at a "sleeper" price tag. ... McCluster is more of an in-season waiver possibility.

Round Twelve

111. Carson Palmer, QB, CIN - Fantasy Sharks
112. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET - Sports Illustrated
113. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - Rotoworld
114. Chris Cooley, TE, WAS - ESPN
115. Steve Slaton, RB, HOU - Yahoo!
116. Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS - CBS Sports
117. Donald Driver, WR, GB - Just a Bit Outside
118. Garrett Hartley, K, NO - NFL Gridiron Gab
119. Kellen Winslow, TE, TB - National Football Post
120. Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: How did this happen? I wasn't high on McFadden coming into the NFL, but I've ended up with him in every draft this year as a RB4. He has fewer career carries and a higher per-carry average than Knowshon Moreno, yet he's considered a colossal bust. To anyone with a gambler's sense of possibility, it's crazy not to spend a 12th round pick on a player of his talent competing for a wide-open starting job. ... Rotoworld isn't wild about Driver this year, but it's hard to argue with him in the 12th round as a WR5. ... It's nice to see someone else loves Hartley. It's still at least two rounds too early for a kicker.

See Darren McFadden's projection and rank in our online draft guide.

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Round Thirteen

121. Nate Kaeding, K, SD - Hardcore Sports Radio
122. Chaz Schilens, WR, OAK - National Football Post
123. Ryan Longwell, K, MIN - NFL Gridiron Gab
124. Cowboys Defense, D/ST, DAL - Just a Bit Outside
125. Zach Miller, TE, OAK - CBS Sports
126. Heath Miller, TE, PIT - Yahoo!
127. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK - ESPN
128. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE - Rotoworld
129. Packers Defense, D/ST, GB - Sports Illustrated
130. Lee Evans, WR, BUF - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: While two more kickers go off the board, I have my eye squarely on a player who might be the best value available at any position this year -- Zach Miller. Unfortunately, he and Heath Miller are snatched up right before my pick. ... I still see one more potential running back starter available, so Hardesty joins my team as a RB5. Has his training camp knee tweak really dropped him below DHB and three kickers? ... If the Bills can muster any semblance of a passing offense, Evans is a steal this late in the draft. ... Did you notice that one team drafted a kicker in back-to-back rounds? It certainly caught my eye.

Round Fourteen

131. Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE - Fantasy Sharks
132. Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ - Sports Illustrated
133. Eagles Defense, D/ST, PHI - Rotoworld
134. Larry Johnson, RB, WAS - ESPN
135. Vikings Defense, D/ST, MIN - Yahoo!
136. Derrick Mason, WR, BAL - CBS Sports
137. Chester Taylor, RB, CHI - Just a Bit Outside
138. Mason Crosby, K, GB - NFL Gridiron Gab
139. Steelers Defense, D/ST, PIT - National Football Post
140. Alex Smith, QB, SF - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: There are still plenty of TE2 options available, but Rotoworld's top fantasy defense is sticking out like a sore thumb. I'm loving the Eagles this year. ... Even with the suspension, Holmes is fantastic value here. ... I'd much rather take my chances with Larry Johnson in the 14th round than Clinton Portis in the seventh round.

Round Fifteen

141. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE - Hardcore Sports Radio
142. Kevin Smith, RB, DET - National Football Post
143. Ravens Defense, D/ST, BAL - NFL Gridiron Gab
144. Mike Williams, WR, TB - Just a Bit Outside
145. 49ers Defense, D/ST, SF - CBS Sports
146. Golden Tate, WR, SEA - Yahoo!
147. Chargers Defense, D/ST, SD - ESPN
148. John Carlson, TE, SEA - Rotoworld
149. Rob Bironas, K, TEN - Sports Illustrated
150. Bengals Defense, D/ST, CIN - Fantasy Sharks

Notes: In the second-last round, I've found quality Jermichael Finley insurance with Rotoworld's 12th ranked tight end. ... Bucs playmaker Mike Williams was a consideration as well, but I feel like I'm set at wide receiver. ... The Bengals are an interesting fantasy defense this year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them finish in the top five.

Round Sixteen

151. Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - Fantasy Sharks
152. Laurent Robinson, WR, STL - Sports Illustrated
153. David Akers, K, PHI - Rotoworld
154. Lawrence Tynes, K, NYG - ESPN
155. Dan Carpenter, K, MIA - Yahoo!
156. David Buehler, K, DAL - CBS Sports
157. Ryan Succop, K, KC - Just a Bit Outside
158. Julius Jones, RB, SEA - NFL Gridiron Gab
159. Giants Defense, D/ST, NYG - National Football Post
160. Darren Sproles, RB, SD - Hardcore Sports Radio

Notes: For the majority of the owners, it's kicker time. I'll call it a night with Akers, who has finished as a top-three fantasy kicker in each of the past two years.

Team Rotoworld

QB - Tom Brady, Matt Ryan
RB - Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas, C.J. Spiller, Darren McFadden, Montario Hardesty
WR - Andre Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant
TE - Jermichael Finley, John Carlson
K - David Akers
D - Eagles

 

[HacheMan]

Donovan McNabb a risky fantasy starter

By Eric Karabell

While it seems like nearly all the talk surrounding the Washington Redskins this offseason/preseason has been about new quarterback Donovan McNabb and the bevy of options he'll be able to hand off the ball to (the latter being a very overrated topic, incidentally), the fact is I'm still not impressed by the team's receiving corps. I ranked McNabb outside my top 10 quarterbacks at No. 12, and part of the reason, other than his age, lack of durability and sketchy offensive line is the lack of weapons at his disposal.


McNabb is coming off a fine season, finishing 10th in standard quarterback scoring (223 points) despite missing two games. But he doesn't have a DeSean Jackson-like option in his new home, or really anything close to it. Frankly, I'm not even sure he has a Jeremy Maclin either, and the tight end he left behind in Brent Celek is one of the best in the league. And at running back, are Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker going to haul in receptions at a rate even remotely similar to what LeSean McCoy/Brian Westbrook did?
McNabb is an upgrade over Jason Campbell, but I think he's going to find the going rough with potential starting wide receivers Santana Moss and Joey Galloway trying to get deep. What is this, 2005? Anyway, let's break down the wide receivers on this team: It might convince you that McNabb really isn't a fantasy starter for 10-team leagues, maybe not even in deeper leagues than that.
Santana Moss: He could be a bit underrated, I admit, but considering he has scored 18 touchdowns in four seasons, is there any real upside left? Moss averaged 12.9 yards per catch in 2009. Surely Campbell and the offensive line were part of the problem, but McNabb has rarely been described as accurate in his own right, and the line remains an issue. Other than a monster game against the hapless Detroit Lions, Moss had a quiet 2009 season, topping 100 yards in only that game. I suppose you could do worse for a No. 3 wide receiver, because it's possible he'll threaten 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. But don't expect anything more than that. I ranked Moss 31st, meaning he's not quite a WR3 to me.
Joey Galloway: The guy is 38. I don't want to be accused of any age bias, but Galloway caught 20 passes the past two years combined. Now he's starting in the slot? Maybe coach Mike Shanahan is just having some fun putting him behind only Moss on the wide receiver depth chart. I'm hearing Galloway is in great shape and impressed everyone in the workouts, but someone should eventually move past him on the depth chart. Even if he does start, I'd be skeptical he can stay healthy, let alone be productive.
Devin Thomas: We've been waiting a few years for Thomas, and ultimately he deserves to start over Galloway, but like Moss, he delivered just one big game last season. Two of his three touchdowns came in Week 13. Thomas has 40 receptions in two seasons, and I suspect he'll top that figure in 2010 alone, but I won't go above 700 yards or five scores, not until we see more from him. The fact he might end up returning kicks -- there's that depth chart thing again -- doesn't make me like him at wide receiver more. Thomas hauled in a 44-yard touchdown from Rex Grossman this weekend, but then again, he was playing with Grossman. Let's see how he works with the first-team offense.
Malcolm Kelly: Hmm, I see a trend; he had one big game in 2009 as well, the Week 17 finale when he caught five passes for 109 yards (but no touchdowns). Kelly couldn't overcome a thumb injury last year, and now it's a hamstring costing him practice and game time. He didn't play this weekend. It's tough to be positive here. Bobby Wade: Maybe he doesn't make the team, but the former Bear/Titan/Viking/Chief certainly has experience as a slot receiver and he made fantasy owners look closer at him when he scored touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4 last season. He didn't score again. Look elsewhere. It would be an upset if he starts.

 

[HacheMan]

Sidney's Mystery
As we approach the peak of fantasy football drafting season, average draft positions (ADPs) are affected severely by current bumps and bruises. Injured players almost always have sinking ADPs, opening up two paths for owners to follow: A chance to grab an excellent player at a discount, or the opportunity to avoid a potential headache all year.

We chatted with Dr. Brian Eckenrode, a board-certified orthopedic clinical specialist and the sports team leader for GSPP Penn Therapy and Fitness at the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia, to get a better handle on some of the big-name players currently sidelined.

Check out his earlier thoughts on injuries like [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"]Steve Smith[/URL]'s fractured arm[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3739"]Leon Washington's leg here[/URL].

Editor's Note: To see where the injured folks rank this season, check out the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide!

<BIG>SIDNEY RICE</BIG>
Injury: Lingering hip pain
Timetable: Questionable for Week 1

The Vikings and Rice have both declined to specify the exact nature of Rice's injury even though this has lingered for seven months. What could be going on here? It could be anything from a hip pointer to a sports hernia to a bad bruise or bursitis. We don't know if it's something internal like a labrum type of thing or something external related to soft tissue.

Rice reportedly saw three specialists and two recommended surgery. What does that tell you? If he has labrum damage or cartilage damage in his hip, that's where they'd probably come in and do surgery. But if you have that type of surgery, you're looking at several months off from sports.

So if he has labrum damage as suspected, will he be limited when he tries to play through it? Well, it might just be pain. He'd get an injection and be able to play. I don't think he's going to suffer any gross weakness or gross instability. Hockey players and goalies have this all the time. You can argue that 10 years ago that no one was really doing this kind of surgery. That type of procedure was very uncommon but players did function.

Rotoworld opinion: We've dropped Rice to 15th in our wide receiver rankings. There's real concern here.


<BIG>KNOWSHON MORENO</BIG>
Injury: Hamstring strain
Timetable: Expected to be ready for Week 1

How can we tell how severe this is? Hamstring strains are something that are common because it crosses over the hip joint and crosses the knee joint. The demand on it is more than other muscle groups. Someone who has a Grade 1 hamstring strain is usually walking that day. Grade 3, they're probably on crutches for a little bit because it hurts just to walk. Completely rupturing a hamstring is a rare thing.

Moreno is expected back at practice shortly, but what are the chances this will linger? If he comes back too fast, certainly it can linger. These hamstring things can become chronic. But since it's the preseason and they can take it slow, he should be fine. It's nothing where a hit is going to affect it.

How will he get ready for Week 1? When he first returns, it's all just having him testing. Have him go at 85, 90 percent and then next week have him push it to make sure it's not going to come back. Once the season gets going, as long he maintains his flexibility and strength, he should be good.

Rotoworld opinion: Draft Moreno as you normally would. He'll be at 100 percent before Opening Day.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!

<BIG>LARRY FITZGERALD</BIG>
Injury: Sprained MCL in right knee
Timetable: Done for preseason, but expected to be ready for Week 1

What exactly is a sprained MCL? Your knee has four main ligaments to help control its stability. The MCL is the ligament on the inside part of your knee. When he's pushing off, this will partly control that.

How does MCL damage compare with ACL damage? An MCL injury is definitely less severe than an ACL. It will be rare that they have to do surgery for an MCL, unless someone has really gross instability. Fitzgerald's injury sounds like a Grade 1 sprain where he's got pain but it's not loose or gives way on him.

Is there any risk of aggravation for Fitzgerald? Essentially not. If he's back playing, the doctors and medical staff feel that he's comfortable enough to play on it. I don't think he should have a problem, considering how mild it sounds. He might not even be braced.

Could it affect his speed or cutting at all? No, especially because we have a couple weeks before the season starts. This is not major.

Rotoworld opinion: Draft Fitzgerald as you normally would. He could probably even play through this if he really needed to suit up tomorrow.

Editor's Note: Create your own fantasy league at myfantasyleague.com!

<BIG>RYAN GRANT</BIG>
Injury: Concussion
Timetable: Already back on field

Are you surprised he came back on the field just a couple days after suffering a concussion? If they're sending him back this quick, his symptoms and his injury weren't severe. Concussions are graded on different levels, a lot of times it depends on how much time unconscious you are and also depends on how quickly you can return to baseline and don't have any symptoms.

What are the risks going forward? Now that we know he's had one concussion, if he has another one his symptoms might be extended a little bit longer.

Is he more likely to suffer another concussion? Not if he's 100 percent back to baseline. You used to see that in hockey a lot more, but now they're a lot more cautious where they scan these guys and they make sure they're back to baseline.

Rotoworld opinion: Draft as you normally would.


The Upenn rehab specialists interviewed in this story have not examined the athletes discussed. Their statements are general guidelines regarding their experience with injured athletes, and should not be taken as medical opinions.

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy life begins at the one
It's first-and-goal at the one-yard line, and life is good. Your fantasy running back is in the game, and he's sure to pick up six easy points. Unless there's a goal line stand. Or a fumble. Or – worst of all – one of those play-action passes to the third string tight end in the back of the endzone.

Editor's Note: For the latest RB rankings, projections and more get the 2010 Draft Guide!</EM>

There are no sure things in football, even at the one-yard line. There were 351 plays from the one last year, and only 150 of them produced touchdowns. That's less than a 50 percent success rate, pretty paltry since the offense is just trying to gain one measly yard.

As you might expect, teams prefer to run at the one-yard line. There were 256 running plays and just 95 passes from the one last year. Of those runs, 171 were plunges right up the middle (from left guard to right guard in the Football Outsiders database). Goal line offense isn't particularly exotic. The success rate on runs was 54 percent, on passes 41 percent. The best way to move the ball in most circumstances is to pass, but at the one-yard line, smashmouth tactics still prevail.

Four teams tied for the league lead with 15 carries inside the one last year: the Vikings, Dolphins, Patriots and Chargers. The Vikings, Dolphins, and Patriots were 9-of-15 on those runs, the Chargers 7-of-15. That's just another reason to think twice before you rush out to buy that LaDainian Tomlinson Jets jersey. LT2 wasn't a great goal line runner last year, just an often-used one. Overall, he scored just nine touchdowns in 28 attempts inside the five. Also, Darren Sproles scored one of those short touchdowns.

A quarterback sneak is always an option from the one-yard line, but the Patriots are the only team to regularly send the quarterback into the pile. There were only 13 sneaks from the one last year, and the Patriots ran six of them. Tom Brady was 1-of-4, Brett Hoyer 1-of-2, and you have to figure that no matter what Bill Belichick thinks of Laurence Maroney, he has to be a safer goal line alternative than Brady, if only for Brady's well being (Maroney scored on 5-of-7 attempts but fumbled once). Ronnie Brown got most of the one-yard carries for the Dolphins before getting hurt. Ricky Williams took over, scoring four times on six one-yard attempts, once on a Wildcat play.

The most pass-happy teams at the one-yard line were the Vikings and Bears, with eight attempts each. Yes, the Vikings led the league in both runs and passes from the one, so both Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre had plenty to do. Favre threw three one-yard touchdowns to Visanthe Shaincoe and attempted a fourth; overall, Favre was 4-of-8, with one 14-yard loss on a sack. Jay Cutler found Greg Olson twice and Desmond Clark once, but also threw four incompletions and (of course) an interception.

The Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers all threw just two passes from the one-yard line, though it should be noted that they weren't at the one very often. There's some randomness at work when analyzing one tiny part of the field, and it just so happens that the Steelers only executed six plays at the one compared to the Vikings 23. Sure, offense quality is a factor, but some teams just have a habit of scoring from the two or three-yard line and never reaching the one. The Jaguars ran 10 times at the one and passed just twice, so Maurice Jones-Drew fans can feel more confident at the one than Peterson fans: Favre may eat into Peterson's opportunities, but David Garrard isn't going to eat into anything.

As for turnovers, there were six fumbles lost at the one-yard line last year and three interceptions: one each by Cutler, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo. There were three sacks, of Favre, Carson Palmer (for 18 yards!) and Matt Cassel, and nine penalties: eight false starts and a delay of game. (These penalties don't count among the other totals). There were three fumbled snaps. That's a lot of bumbling for just 351 plays.

As for those tight end "surprises," I combed through the FO database and eliminated all passes from the one-yard line intended for wide receivers, halfbacks or any tight end who could reasonably be considered a fantasy option (everyone from Antonio Gates down to guys like Shiancoe and Brandon Pettitgrew). This informal study found 37 "silly" passes to unknown tight ends, fullbacks like Madison Hedgecock, linebackers like Mike Vrabel, and other mystery performers. These plays yielded 16 touchdowns. We may have nightmares about Naufahu Tahi touchdowns when we need a score from Peterson, but these oddball plays amount to less than half a touchdown per team in a year.

 

[HacheMan]

NFC Projected Carries
This week we bring you projections for all backfields in the NFC after we tackled the AFC last Wednesday.

Arizona Cardinals
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt | Average Rushes/Year: 333
Projected 2010 Carries: 375

Whisenhunt comes from ground 'n' pound roots with Bill Cowher's Steelers teams, but he's been one of the most pass heavy coaches in the league the past three years. Expect that to change this season. Beanie Wells is far more talented than Tim Hightower or a washed up Edgerrin James while the Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson duo is inspiring no confidence in the aerial attack.

Chris Wells: 240
Tim Hightower: 120
LaRod Stephens-Howling: 15

The Hightower "starting" concerns are severely overblown. The passing of the backfield torch already took place last season when Wells garnered two-thirds of the carries after Thanksgiving. ESPN's John Clayton is boldly predicting 75 percent of the carries for Wells this year, but I'm standing by the two-thirds ratio. Hightower isn't going away on passing downs, which will keep Beanie from RB1 territory.

Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Mike Smith | Average Rushes/Year: 448
Projected 2010 Carries: 425

Smith and coordinator Mike Mularkey began their Atlanta tenure with an offense heavily skewed toward the run while breaking in Matt Ryan. They're incrementally increasing the pass attempts, however. The offseason was spent focusing on the deep passing attack while adding to the no-huddle repertoire. Expect a balanced attack.

Michael Turner: 300
Jerious Norwood: 65
Jason Snelling: 60

Multiple offseason reports suggest the Falcons want to keep Turner at 300 carries this year with Snelling emerging as a capable backup. Look for Turner's workload to be dependent on game momentum. As long as it's a close contest, the starter will be on the field on running downs. Snelling is the "handcuff" here, but Norwood could top his touches in a change-of-pace role.

Carolina Panthers
Coach: John Fox | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 460
Projected 2010 Carries: 485

Fox is slightly to the right of Bill O'Reilly on the conservative scale. While the rest of the league dabbles in spread formations, Fox is more than happy to saddle up two of the league's scariest backs 30+ times per game. After watching Jake Delhomme last season, it's hard to blame him. Expect more of the same with Matt Moore sporting training wheels as a first-time starter.

DeAngelo Williams: 250
Jonathan Stewart: 215
Mike Goodson: 10
Tyrell Sutton: 10

Williams has been the 1A to Stewart's 1B for two years, and there's no reason to believe that will change now. Fox's veteran fetish is well documented, and he's mindful of Stewart's nagging foot woes . Stewart is truly one of the top talents in the league, but he's going to need a Williams injury to reach RB1 status.

Chicago Bears
Coach: Lovie Smith | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 381
Projected 2010 Carries: 345

Smith's average rushes figure is skewed due to the 2005-06 seasons when he had the league's most dominant defense/special teams, a strong ground attack, and a scattershot headcase at quarterback. The Jay Cutler trade brought a dramatic shift away from the running game, and the arrival of passing-game "genius" Mike Martz as play-caller will do nothing to reverse that trend.

Matt Forte: 230
Chester Taylor: 105
Garrett Wolfe: 10

There's tendency among fantasy leaguers in all sports to place too much weight on the previous year's stats. Forte was overrated coming off a productive fantasy season as a rookie, and he's being overlooked coming off a injury-plagued fantasy disappointment in 2009. Don't get caught up in Taylor's contract; teams are more willing to pay for committee backs in today's NFL. Taylor will play a role similar to the one he played in Minnesota.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!

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Dallas Cowboys
Coach: Wade Phillips | Average Rushes/Year: 381
Projected 2010 Carries: 395

Phillips has been sitting on the most talented backfield trio in the league for two years now, but coordinator Jason Garrett tends to fall back on Tony Romo's arm. As of a former QB himself, it's his area of expertise. Even if all three backs manage to stay healthy this season, it's going to be an uphill battle to combine for 400 carries. There's simply too much talent in the passing game.

Marion Barber: 170
Felix Jones: 160
Tashard Choice: 65

Cowboys watchers spent the offseason hyping Jones as the feature back only to fall back on old reliable Barber once training camp rolled around. Jones' role does figure to grow this season, but he's not going to make Barber dispensable. Choice needs injuries to both backs for a shot at fantasy value. He's a borderline RB1 in that scenario.

Detroit Lions
Coach: Jim Schwartz | Average Rushes/Year: 352
Projected 2010 Carries: 360

Schwartz is rooted in Jeff Fisher's ball control philosophy. With a broken down offensive line and a porous defense, though, he never got his chance to run the ball and stop the run in his first year. The secondary remains perhaps the weakest in the league, so don't expect much change this time around. The Lions added the passing-game weapons to keep pace with opposing aerial attacks instead.

Jahvid Best: 235
Kevin Smith: 95
Maurice Morris: 30

Schwartz, the Titans' defensive boss in Chris Johnson's rookie year, targeted Best in this year's draft with visions of CJ2K dancing in his head. Best's offensive role will be modeled on Johnson's rookie season, and he'll be similarly hard to pull off the field as the engine that makes the Lions offense go. Target him with confidence as a RB2. Smith, a far more pedestrian talent, is no more than a "handcuff" this year.

See Jahvid Best's projection and rank in our online draft guide

Green Bay Packers
Coach: Mike McCarthy | Average Rushes/Year: 372
Projected 2010 Carries: 370

McCarthy's greatest strengths lie in the passing game as a master game-planner, play-caller, and QB-developer. With Ryan Grant the past three years, he's found a bell cow to keep defenses just honest enough to allow Aaron Rodgers to operate at peak form. This offense will skew toward the pass as long as the coaching expertise and personnel tip the scales in that direction.

Ryan Grant: 285
Brandon Jackson: 60
James Starks: 25

Grant may be one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL, but he's kept his job by plugging away for 4-5 yards a pop on first and second downs. Perhaps more important to the contending Packers, he's gotten stronger as the season has gone along for three straight years. Grant is locked into the feature back role with Jackson entering on third downs.

Minnesota Vikings
Coach: Brad Childress | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 432
Projected 2010 Carries: 430

Childress leaned heavily on Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor for three years entering last season. It took just three games before Brett Favre turned the offense into a gunfight at the O.K. Corral. With No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice out for half the season, we should see the pendulum start swinging back slightly in the other direction.

Adrian Peterson: 345
Toby Gerhart: 65
Albert Young: 20

Chris Johnson stole the headlines all season, but Peterson is poised for a monster year of his own. With Taylor out of the picture and Gerhart not ready to handle third downs, Peterson is expected to be the do-everything back for the first time in his career. He has the difference-making talent to put the offense on his shoulders if the passing game stumbles without Rice.

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New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 395
Projected 2010 Carries: 390

Payton has traditionally thrown the ball to win and run the ball to kill the clock, but he began to pay more attention to his ground game last year. Much like the Patriots, the Saints use a mix-and-match backfield approach depending on game situation.

Pierre Thomas: 205
Reggie Bush: 130
Ladell Betts: 35
Chris Ivory: 20

Payton has utilized a three-headed monster in each of the past three seasons, but he's missing that third head with Mike Bell in Philly and Lynell Hamilton on I.R. Provided they can stick to minor nicks and scrapes as opposed to multi-week injuries, Thomas and Bush will both see a marked increase in carries. Thomas should flirt with RB1 value while Bush bounces back to reliable flex status.

New York Giants
Coach: Tom Coughlin | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 435
Projected 2010 Carries: 430

Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride had championed a ball control approach until the league's most dominant run-blocking line stopped opening holes last year. It didn't help that their 265-pound sledge hammer played through a season-long knee injury while the explosive change-of-pace back battled injuries to both feet and one ankle. With the top two backs healthy again this year, expect a sharp decline in Eli Manning's pass attempts.

Ahmad Bradshaw: 200
Brandon Jacobs: 190
Andre Brown: 30
D.J. Ware: 10

After taking the majority of first-team camp reps, Bradshaw also started the first preseason game. The momentum is unquestionably in his corner as the season draws near, but this coaching staff has been hesitant to put a heavy workload on his shoulders in the past. Look for the Giants backfield to feature a fairly even timeshare no matter which back starts in Week 1.

Philadelphia Eagles
Coach: Andy Reid | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 334
Projected 2010 Carries: 345

Reid and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg have traditionally placed less emphasis on the running game than any other team in the league. They were in the bottom five again last year with Brian Westbrook unavailable for the majority of the season and LeSean McCoy not ready to carry the load.

LeSean McCoy: 185
Mike Bell: 95
Leonard Weaver: 55
Charles Scott: 10

McCoy failed to grab hold of the lead back job late last season due to his struggles in pass protection, ball protection, and between-the-tackles running. Reports suggest he's made tangible progress throughout the spring and summer, but Bell and Weaver remain superior options on inside runs and in short-yardage situations.

San Francisco 49ers
Coach: Mike Singletary | Average Rushes/Year: 332
Projected 2010 Carries: 375

Singletary's average rush numbers are rather misleading. As a rookie coach in 2008, he inherited mad Mike Martz for the final nine games of the season. Last year, new coordinator Jimmy Raye experimented with a spread formation as a way to minimize Alex Smith's struggles under center. Singletary's 2010 draft, featuring two first-round offensive linemen and a late-round bruiser, suggest a concerted effort to change gears and return to the basics.

Frank Gore: 280
Brian Westbrook: 60
Anthony Dixon: 35

Though the Niners have made incremental improvements to the passing attack, Gore remains the offensive focal point. Westbrook is no more than a bit part at this stage of his career, best utilized as a change-of-pace option in passing situations. Should Gore go down with an injury, it's a good bet that Westbrook would split touches with bulldozing rookie Dixon.

Create your own fantasy league.

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Seattle Seahawks
Coach: Pete Carroll | Weighted Average Rushes/Year: 365
Projected 2010 Carries: 355

Carroll tended to saddle up one feature back in his first stint as a head coach with the Jets and Patriots back in the late '90s. That philosophy changed during his dominant run at USC, preferring instead to mix and match with a committee attack. After considering the Seahawks' personnel, he and his coaching staff have already settled on a three-headed approach this year.

Justin Forsett: 145
Julius Jones: 115
Leon Washington: 95

Is Jones the NFL's new Rasputin? No matter his level of ineffectiveness, he simply can't be killed. Jones started the first preseason game with Forsett coming on in relief. The two switched roles in the second game, only to watch Washington outplay them both. Forsett has been the most impressive back in camp, but he's the very definition of a role player and the coaching staff knows it. Expect inconsistency with a "hot-hand" approach -- and major hair pulling for fantasy owners. If I had to target a Seattle back, I would grab the more talented Washington as a late-round flier rather than reaching for Forsett.

St. Louis Rams
Coach: Steve Spagnuolo | Average Rushes/Year: 378
Projected 2010 Carries: 375

Spags would ideally lean on a ball-control rushing attack and a smothering defense. Unfortunately, his vision as a defensive guru is impossible with a team still lacking in talent and identity. Common sense calls for a Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco/Mark Sanchez approach to developing Sam Bradford in a conservative offense, but Spags and Pat Shurmur won't have the luxury of playing with the lead and taking the air out of the ball.

Steven Jackson: 315
Chris Ogbonnaya: 45
Kenneth Darby: 15

S-Jax needed only a few plays last weekend to demonstrate that he's fully recovered from offseason back surgery. After the Rams were spurned by Brian Westbrook, he literally has zero competition for carries. Jackson basically comes off the field only when he's tired or when the game has gotten out of hand. Draft him with confidence late in the first round, and don't worry about backing him up Ogbonnaya as a "handcuff."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Raheem Morris | Average Rushes/Year: 344
Projected 2010 Carries: 355

Morris entered last season with every intention of using a head-scratching "2-2-1" backfield rotation of Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward, and Earnest Graham. It didn't last long. Graham was pushed into a lead-blocking role while Williams leapfrogged free agent signee Ward, garnering 60 percent of the backfield touches in an unlikely comeback season.

Carnell Williams: 170
Kareem Huggins: 95
Derrick Ward: 80
Earnest Graham: 10

Morris is no longer planning a rotation, but he did suggest that he'll ride whichever back develops the "hot hand" throughout the season. Williams will enter the season as the starter, but this year the heat is coming from Huggins instead of Ward. Look for Huggins to emerge in the change-of-pace role, offering speed and big-play ability as a complement to Williams' grinding style. Outside of late-round fliers on Huggins and Mike Williams, this is an offense for fantasy leaguers to avoid.

Washington Redskins
Coach: Mike Shanahan | Average Rushes/Year: 433
Projected 2010 Carries: 400

Shanahan has been arguably the brightest offensive mind in the game over the last 20 years, but it's worth asking if he's even the best play-caller on his own team or in his own family. His son Kyle came over from Houston where he masterminded the No. 1 passing offense in the league. Throw in an underwhelming stable of backs and a possible "Favre factor" with a veteran quarterback used to playing in a pass-first offense, and the elder Shanahan should swing back toward the passing game in his first season in the nation's capital.

Clinton Portis: 160
Larry Johnson: 115
Ryan Torain: 55
Keiland Williams: 50
Willie Parker: 20

I don't trust Portis to stay healthy and effective, and neither should you. Feeling the aftereffects of four seasons with 325+ carries, Portis has been plagued by a laundry list of leg injuries over the past two seasons. Worse, he was forced to forfeit football activities for four months(!) following a career-threatening concussion. Despite speculation that Johnson could be on the roster bubble, trustworthy Redskins insider Chris Russell emphasized that he'd be stunned if L.J. was released. Since this a Shanahan team, we can't rule out trial runs for Torain and Williams, either.

 

[HacheMan]

The potential 'touchdown vultures' are ...

By Eric Karabell


Tennessee Titans running back Samkon Gado scored a pair of short third-quarter touchdowns in Monday's win over the Arizona Cardinals, which on the surface might not mean very much. It's merely the preseason, Chris Johnson is "the man" in Tennessee, and hey, it is Samkon Gado, a journeyman, we're talking about. I hear you. However, in this case, knowing how Titans coach Jeff Fisher divided the rushing attempts near the goal line in 2008, when LenDale White was a force, let's just say Gado could be someone to consider in the late rounds. He could be a -- prepare yourself, because these words are fantasy evil -- a touchdown vulture.
Naturally, players like Gado don't have much fantasy reliability. After all, he could be unemployed by Week 1. He became a Titan barely a week ago, and unlike many of the speedy, young and relatively unknown running backs fighting for jobs, this just happens to be a name we know. Surely you remember Week 13 in 2005, when Gado, then on the Green Bay Packers, rumbled for 171 yards and a touchdown. Many a fantasy owner flocked to him. Gado scored six touchdowns in a six-week span that season. Since then he has been, uh, well-traveled, and frankly not very good, averaging just 1.9 yards per rush with the St. Louis Rams last season. But he's a Titan now, and he absolutely could matter.


Fisher knew Johnson, a rookie in 2008, was a star in the making -- that proved true last season -- but he also wanted to protect him with the bigger, sturdier White, who scored 15 rushing touchdowns that season. White is listed at 6-foot-2, 240 pounds (conservatively, some would say). Gado isn't quite that big, but he's bigger than Johnson and second-year man Javon Ringer, the likely backup. I'm not saying Gado will score 15 rushing touchdowns this season, but certainly the role of touchdown vulture can matter in fantasy football.
I'll admit I am not a big fan of owning or activating running backs based solely on touchdown potential. Certainly there are leagues, and I've been in them, in which touchdowns are worth more points. One of my leagues was touchdown-only, with 10 points per score. The yards didn't matter. In general, I think fantasy owners are much more interested in how the touchdown vultures affect their starting running backs rather than using the specialists. For the record, White was more than a specialist in 2008; he gained 773 yards in 2008, so it's not like he was Jerome Bettis in his waning seasons. Bettis rushed for 368 yards in 2005 but scored nine times. To some, that was awesome.
I'll still take the under on Gado doing that, and I'm not ready to toss him into my RB rankings just yet (or even remotely consider moving Johnson out of the No. 1 draft spot). But Fisher has done this before, and it's certainly in his and the team's best interests to protect Johnson, who is coming off a season of more than 400 touches. Goal-line carries tend to be the most brutal for a running back, especially when defenses are on guard. Ringer remains the Johnson handcuff in case an injury occurs … but with 210-pound rookie Stafon Johnson dislocating an ankle a few weeks ago, Gado might have found a role as the team's short-yardage back.
With "Touchdown Tommy" Vardell now on my mind, I've tried to find other possible touchdown vultures for this season, players way off the fantasy radar. Ricky Williams isn't a touchdown vulture. Neither is Jonathan Stewart or Marion Barber. Willis McGahee and Mike Bell are going to steal touchdowns from Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, but you're drafting them anyway. Frankly, there were no true vultures last season, except for maybe McGahee. All 25 running backs who rushed for six or more touchdowns also accrued more than 500 rushing yards. The four players below could change that this season. To be included, the criteria was to be outside my top 200 (like Gado).
Jerome Felton, Detroit Lions: Rookie Jahvid Best is of rather slight build and brings a checkered injury past. Kevin Smith isn't durable, either. Felton is a fullback by trade and a large one who scored a ton of touchdowns in college at Furman. Kareem Huggins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He's not a real big guy, but he's having a nice preseason and has probably leapfrogged Derrick Ward as the primary backup to Cadillac Williams. Knowing Williams' long injury history, Huggins could be the third-down and goal-line option.


Ladell Betts, New Orleans Saints: Hey, the Saints did it last season with Mike Bell. It doesn't change how I view Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush, either, because there are just so many opportunities for this offense.
Keiland Williams, Washington Redskins: Just a hunch that he will not only make the team, but also play a key role. Clinton Portis is certainly not young … and Williams is bigger, wider and, unlike Larry Johnson and Willie Parker, owns fresh legs. Mike Shanahan seems like he'd be open to just about anything.
Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns: I really don't think rookie Montario Hardesty will matter in September. Hillis is the fullback and he scored a bunch for Denver in 2008.
A few other notes about my status this week:
• I will be chatting today at 3 p.m. ET. Stop on by and pose a question by clicking here! • I will be tweeting often starting today, sharing my thoughts in that forum. You can find me at www.twitter.com/karabellespn

 

[HacheMan]

Who will get Sidney Rice's touches?

By Eric Karabell


I'll be honest, I laughed when I heard the news that former Pro Bowl wide receiver Javon Walker was going to sign a contract to play with old Green Bay Packers teammate Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. I mean, how long has it been since Walker was a relevant fantasy option? Let's face it, 31-year-old receivers who have barely played over a three-year period don't often make for fantasy sleepers.


Well, as a Sidney Rice owner -- I just paid what I thought was a sweet $18 for him in a mock auction Monday -- I'm not laughing anymore. It's pretty clear now, following the news that Rice reportedly had hip surgery Monday, that Walker could play a role on the Vikings. Then again, I'm kind of still laughing about this. Javon Walker? Really?
The real news here is Rice, because a guy who many consider to be a top-10 wide receiver -- he did come from nowhere to finish No. 8 in wide receiver scoring last season -- all of a sudden drops off the proverbial face of the fantasy earth. Not to be cruel, but if reports are correct that Rice had surgery on the balky hip and will miss at least half of the season, then he's not worth drafting. I'm not talking about a drop from his No. 13 spot in my rankings to 30 or so, but completely off the board for standard formats, which is the top 60 or so. Yes, Rice is a very talented player, but you can't tell me he'll be out running routes like new in Week 9. In many leagues the fantasy playoffs are less than a month from Week 9 … there's no way I hold a roster spot for Rice in standard leagues, where there are only seven bench spots and more than half of them will be used by running backs and a reserve quarterback, for a guy who might not contribute at all.
I'll wait for colleague Stephania Bell to break down Rice's physical situation, but to me, it comes down to games missed. Following news that he had surgery, you can forget about him until November, and that just doesn't work for me. In a 10-team league, I wouldn't draft him. In a deeper format, I'd use a late pick on him, at best.
Here are my thoughts on what the Rice/Walker situation means to other Vikings: Brett Favre: The wily veteran made Rice his top target, but I have to be honest, I think Favre made Rice the star, not the other way around. I think Favre can still be very productive without Rice. It's not like Bernard Berrian is a scrub. I have Favre ranked ninth among quarterbacks, and that comes at a discount anyway. I assume he falls short of last season's stunning statistics. For now, I'm leaving Favre where he is and not dropping him behind Eli Manning, Kevin Kolb and Joe Flacco, my quarterbacks ranked 10-12.


Percy Harvin: The second-year man has his own problems, dealing with migraines that briefly hospitalized him last week. I didn't adjust Harvin's rank for when I (foolishly) thought Favre was going to retire, because I think the speedster can thrive no matter who's at quarterback, even Tarvaris Jackson. Can he thrive being the team's No. 1 target? Oh yeah. Harvin is less of a deep threat than Rice, but he's a dangerous slot receiver the Vikings used in a number of creative ways. Harvin, ranked 25th in my wide receiver rankings before the Rice news, moves up past Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin and Hakeem Nicks to just outside the top 20.
Bernard Berrian: Here's the big winner statistically. Berrian was supposed to be Favre's top target a year ago but he couldn't stay healthy. He's healthy now, and he's an underrated deep threat. While it would be folly to think Berrian will produce the numbers that Rice accrued in 2009, he is capable of double-digit touchdowns and 1,000 yards. I'll stop short of those projections, but certainly he needs to be selected even in shallow leagues. I had Berrian 45th at wide receiver. I believe Harvin will mostly remain in his same role and Berrian will be asked to do what Rice did. I moved Berrian up 15 spots at wide receiver, just past Braylon Edwards, Derrick Mason and Kevin Walter. And frankly, that might not be nearly enough. This is a nice sleeper. Javon Walker: Well, at least he's back in the league, right? It would be silly to think Walker won't play a role on this team. He has worked extensively with Favre in the past, after all. I can't pretend to know what kind of shape he's in, but I will view him the way I do other clear-cut No. 3 wide receivers, which is to say he's barely draftable, if at all. Yes, I had Berrian 45th at wide receiver, but how can I give Walker the same love when he has caught just 41 passes in 19 games the past three seasons? Let's assume the Vikings use him more than Greg Lewis, but that's not saying much. Lewis caught eight passes in '09. The Vikings have a top running back in Adrian Peterson, who also catches passes, and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe hauled in 56 receptions. For now, Walker doesn't make my top 60 at wide receiver.

 

[HacheMan]

QB notes: Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford ...

By Eric Karabell

As I've blogged a few times already this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense definitely has some fantasy sleepers, including running back Cadillac Williams and rookie wide receiver Mike Williams. But does the fact that starting quarterback Josh Freeman fractured the tip of the thumb on his throwing hand this weekend, placing the start of his season and his effectiveness into question, change things?

Not one bit. I still like "Williams & Williams," as well as top-10 tight end Kellen Winslow, just as much.


Freeman isn't listed among my top 25 quarterbacks at this point, but I'm not going to drop him in the rankings, either. A fantasy owner would draft Freeman for his potential, not his reliability. He's certainly not someone fantasy owners can count on -- not yet, at least -- as a starter or reliable backup, but for those in multiquarterback or deep leagues, this might drive his value down a bit. I see Freeman as more of a work in progress, an athletic specimen who will make mistakes. Who knows; maybe he'll emerge into a top-10 quarterback someday. I'd actually like to see him play and grow … but it might be painful statistically.
The point is, if Freeman needs to miss a few weeks of the season -- for now the Bucs are saying he will not practice but should be ready for Week 1 -- I believe backup Josh Johnson, another tantalizing athlete, can keep his weapons relevant. Cadillac Williams is currently being selected 42nd among running backs in ESPN average live drafts, which is awfully low for a starter. Sure, the Buccaneers don't have a great offensive line or much of a threat at quarterback and will trail a lot (necessitating more passing), plus Williams hasn't been the most durable fellow. But he is starting. It's not Derrick Ward. (Can't believe I fell for that a year ago.) For Williams to be going in Round 12, after clear backups Darren Sproles, Donald Brown and Steve Slaton, not to mention LaDainian Tomlinson, seems odd. I have Williams No. 30 at running back. If the Freeman injury drops Caddy's draft value more, so be it. I still want him.
Mike Williams caught three passes for 44 yards in Saturday's win over the Kansas City Chiefs, including a 16-yarder from Freeman on a third down to set up the Buccaneers' first points. One of the bigger fallacies in fantasy football is that a wide receiver cannot thrive unless the quarterback does. Check out colleague Christopher Harris' 32 questions article on the viability of St. Louis Rams wide receivers for proof it can be done. In this case, Winslow and the two Williamses can do well no matter the quarterback.
Freeman's injury reminds us the preseason is more about the injuries -- who gets hurt, who avoids it -- rather than the actual statistics. Here are some other quarterbacks in the news from this weekend:
Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings: What? One pass attempt and only four plays in his preseason opener? How can he be ready for Week 1, you might be wondering. Well, don't wonder. Favre is a thousand years old and doesn't need August games to get ready. He'll be fine for Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. I have Favre in my top 10 at quarterback (No. 9), and he'll surely be there in Week 1. Eli Manning, New York Giants: A knee, a groin or an elbow injury -- those are things I would worry about. Stitches in his head from a fluke accident in which his helmet was knocked off do not concern me. Manning might or might not play this preseason weekend, but it doesn't matter. He remains my No. 10 quarterback.


Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Like Freeman to some degree, it's very difficult to trust Bradford for fantasy prowess this season. We have seen rookie quarterbacks emerge earlier than normal in recent seasons (Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan), but those guys seemed to be in better overall situations. Bradford might be needed to start Week 1 now that A.J. Feeley is battling a thumb injury, but that might have happened anyway. For the record, I do rank Bradford ahead of Freeman … but neither made my top 25. Bradford made a few decent throws Saturday against the Cleveland Browns, but 24 passing yards on 14 attempts is just not very good. Other notes: Washington Redskins newbie Donovan McNabb was seen wearing a precautionary walking boot Monday. He should be fine for Week 1, but let this be a reminder to you that he is not someone who generally plays all 16 games in a season. … Don't get too excited, but the Miami Dolphins' Chad Henne played very well against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend, leading three scoring drives to start the game. I have him ranked as a reliable backup at No. 17. … Ben Roethlisberger threw eight passes Saturday night, but I admit to being more interested in how Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon did. One of them will presumably start the first four (or six) games. Leftwich found Mike Wallace for a pretty 68-yard touchdown play. I can't see ranking Leftwich as a top-20 quarterback for the first two weeks (versus the Atlanta Falcons, at the Tennessee Titans), but maybe Week 3 at Tampa Bay.

 

[HacheMan]

Top 15 Preseason Risers
The first two weeks of the preseason are considered meaningless, at least relative to the third exhibition game (and real ones that begin on September 9).

But we are a full month of two-a-day practices removed from the start of training camp. There have been numerous injuries. Each team has issued a depth chart, then updated it. Rotoworld has watched the first two preseason games extensively and, in some cases, repeatedly. We know how players coming off surgeries are recovering, and have formed a pretty good idea of who's winning which camp battle where.

Editor's Note: Get the Rotoworld Draft Guide by clicking here.

So with a month of contact drills behind us, let's take a look at which players' fantasy stocks have improved.

1. Texans running back Arian Foster

Foster entered camp with a tenuous grip on the starting tailback job in Houston. It tightened with Ben Tate's year-ending injury, and Foster's preseason performance has made it a stranglehold. Averaging a crisp 5.9 yards per carry on ten rushes, Foster is rightfully screaming up fantasy draft boards as a top-24 running back. Steve Slaton will be the third-down specialist and return kicks.

2. Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker

After offseason knee and shoulder reconstructions, the vast majority of Pats observers anticipated that Welker might return at midseason. Staying in line with his life story, Welker beat the odds. The NFL's receptions leader since 2006 resumed practicing in full pads on August 5, and progressed to preseason action two weeks later. He caught two balls for 20 yards at Atlanta, including a tough, twisting grab on a throw behind him from Tom Brady. Welker will start Week 1.

3. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson

You can't get much higher than the No. 2 fantasy player -- as he was last year -- but Peterson's cross-league value has been solidified. Rookie Toby Gerhart and in-house option Albert Young were unable to secure passing-down duties, positioning Peterson to set another receptions career high. In his preseason debut last Sunday, three of the Vikings' first five completions were good to A.P. Already a favorite to lead the NFL in rushing scores, "All Day" can no longer be downgraded in PPR leagues. Only Ray Rice is a safe bet for more catches among the top-five fantasy picks.

4. Raiders running back Michael Bush

Easiest way to win a camp battle: Player you're battling gets hurt. Especially when that player was already brittle. Darren McFadden, who's missed seven games in his first two seasons, sat out over two weeks of training camp with a hamstring injury. Bush hasn't set the world on fire with a 3.8 yards-per-carry preseason average, but it's not like he's feeling much heat. The Raiders' offense has also flashed signs of being able to move the ball with Jason Campbell under center.

5. Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw

Brandon Jacobs hasn't helped himself this preseason, blowing an assignment to get Eli Manning's face lacerated in the opener and showing no burst, before missing the second game with a neck injury. But the Giants' tailback job might've been Bradshaw's even before all that. Fully recovered from his offseason foot surgeries, Bradshaw has received the majority of first-team snaps since camp began and averaged 7.7 yards per touch on nine preseason chances. He's a better player than Jacobs. Bradshaw will never be a true workhorse, but he's going to be the Giants' lead back.

6. Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens

T.O. wasn't even a surefire starter just before camp, but Antonio Bryant's roster spot-threatening knee injury secured his first-team role. And Owens has been Carson Palmer's go-to receiver through three preseason games. T.O. has accounted for Palmer's only big passing play (a 43-yard bomb) while catching nine balls for 103 yards compared to Chad Ochocinco's three for 33. T.O. has plenty of talent left, and will pay dividends for owners selecting him in the middle rounds.

7. Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Williams

Josh Freeman's broken thumb takes some air out of Williams' ballooning stock, but only a little. Freeman is expected back for Week 1. While the rest of the receiver corps fights to a stalemate opposite him, Williams has run away with the Bucs' split end job. The Syracuse product has been a big-play magnet this preseason, hauling in passes of 30, 16, and 15 yards -- all from different spots on the field. Don't be surprised if Williams is used sparingly in the final two weeks. The Bucs would be smart to prevent the rest of the league from getting any more tape on this kid.

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8. Bears wide receiver Johnny Knox

We considered Knox the favorite to start at split end entering camp, but had no idea he'd beat out incumbent 16-game starter Earl Bennett so convincingly. The biggest question mark we had about Knox was with regard to the crispness of his route running -- a necessity in Mike Martz's offense -- and he's already the best route runner on the team. Knox has three preseason catches. The first two came against Chargers No. 1 corner Quentin Jammer for gains of 33 and 14, and the third was good for a 22-yard score against the Raiders. Confidently expect big things.

9. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe

A quiet training camp for Dwayne Bowe is a productive training camp for Dwayne Bowe. It's been a quiet camp. Since reporting to St. Joseph at 210 pounds (he weighed 240 in August of 2009), Bowe hasn't missed a snap with the first-team offense while generating sterling reviews for his consistency and big-play ability in practice reports. The Chiefs' defense won't stop anyone this year, so expect a lot of passing. Just a little improvement from Matt Cassel is all Bowe needs to explode.

10. Broncos wide receiver Jabar Gaffney

Gaffney would rank higher on this list if he was a dynamic talent, because his preseason couldn't be going better. Not to mention on fire (68.6-percent completion rate, 261 yards, four TDs), Kyle Orton is entrenched as Denver's quarterback with Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn failing to impress. Orton easily provides Broncos receivers with their best chance to produce. With Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas still low on the depth chart, Gaffney will enter the season as a No. 1 wideout.

11. Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks

We entered August anticipating a position battle between the rising upstart Nicks and incumbent starter Mario Manningham. It hasn't even been a competition. While Nicks is locked in as the first-team split end, Manningham has been pushed by Ramses Barden and rookie Victor Cruz for third receiver duties. Nicks is a strong bet to lead the Giants in touchdowns, and he's not too poor a choice to overtake Steve Smith for the receiving yardage lead. He's a value in the fifth round.

12. Bills running back C.J. Spiller

Injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch expedited Spiller's rise up the depth chart, and his highlight-reel 31-yard TD in the second preseason game gave it another nudge. The No. 9 overall pick was a third-stringer slated for a Reggie Bush-type role to open August, but now appears to be the favorite to start Week 1. Spiller can continue to separate himself with another strong showing Saturday against Cincinnati. The Bills won't get big offensive plays from elsewhere on the roster.

13. Raiders tight end Zach Miller

Who else is Jason Campbell going to throw to? Darrius Heyward-Bey has literally been too tired to practice, Chaz Schilens (knee, foot) is out for the foreseeable future, and the Raiders will pick from an ugly group consisting of Johnnie Lee Higgins, Todd Watkins, and Nick Miller when they anoint a No. 3 receiver for Week 1. Miller is suddenly a sleeper to lead all tight ends in targets. Slated to start in place of Schilens, wideout Louis Murphy's fantasy outlook has also improved.

14. Chargers wide receiver Malcom Floyd

Vincent Jackson's holdout is for real, and a trade out of San Diego would only serve to solidify Floyd's stock. In his preseason debut, Floyd whipped Cowboys Pro Bowl cornerback Terence Newman for a 16-yard gain, fellow Pro Bowler Mike Jenkins for a 13-yarder, and then dime back Cletis Gordon for 18 yards to lead San Diego's first-team offense in receiving. Legedu Naanee is worth a look in PPR leagues, but Floyd will replace V-Jax as Philip Rivers' go-to guy downfield.

15. Browns running back Jerome Harrison

The Browns traded up for Montario Hardesty because they didn't think Harrison was a carry-the-load type back. But Hardesty suffered a bone bruise on his knee in July, and a month later is only able to practice in individual drills. Maybe the Browns should be concerned that Hardesty can't carry the load. After all, he's had knee problems dating back to college. Perhaps Harrison won't keep the job all season, but he'll get the chance to make himself irremovable as an Opening Day starter. And as Harrison showed late last year, sometimes a chance is all you need.

 

[HacheMan]

Play Ball! Mock draft style
The previous drafts discussed here and here were of the "expert" variety. They featured owners inside the industry that have dreams (or nightmares) about the effects of Sidney Rice's surgery and late-round fliers.

This is a different beast. Well, somewhat different. The draft analyzed below mostly featured members of the Rotoworld baseball crew: Guys that are very in tune with the fantasy landscape, but don't deal with football on a day-to-day basis. In other words, it's a top-notch, highly competitive league that is full of owners on top of their game, but don't have football on the brain 24/7. Hopefully this is what a lot of your leagues look like.

One caveat is that everyone in this league reads Rotoworld news blurbs and columns daily. They also have access to the cheat sheets and rankings. As you'll see, many of our favorite players went much higher than they would in a standard public draft.

It's a 12-team, non-PPR (point per reception) league with 15 roster spots. Quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing and four points per passing touchdown. All other scoring is standard. Starting lineups are one QB, two RB, two WR, one TE, one FLEX. The draft began on Aug. 18 and went through Aug. 27. The league will be played out.

Editor's Note: To see average draft positions and complete projections, check out the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide!

ROUND ONE
1. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
4. Ray Rice, RB, BAL
5. Frank Gore, RB, SF
6. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
7. Michael Turner, RB, ATL
8. Steven Jackson, RB, STL
9. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
10. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
11. Randy Moss, WR, NE
12. Drew Brees, QB, NO

Notes: The first seven picks, in some order, should be the same in almost all formats. ... It's been well documented that picks nine through 12 are a very difficult place to draft from. Owners in non-PPR formats aren't crazy or dumb to opt for the safe play and go quarterback there. ... I'd go with Michael Turner over Andre Johnson or Frank Gore in non-PPR, but I'm extra high on The Burner this year.

ROUND TWO
1. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
2. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
3. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
4. Roddy White, WR, ATL
5. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
6. Peyton Manning, QB, IND
7. Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
8. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARZ
9. Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
10. Tom Brady, QB, NE
11. Tony Romo, QB, DAL
12. Philip Rivers, QB, SD

Notes: You likely won't have to spend this high of a pick on Jamaal Charles in your league. His current ADP in ESPN leagues is 37.2. Same goes for Pierre Thomas, whose ESPN ADP is 37.1. ... Roddy White may very well outperform Fitzgerald this year, but it won't be because of Fitz's knee. That's a non-issue. I also think Derek Anderson is a better fit for Fitz than Matt Leinart. ... Avoid the second-tier QB run if it happens this high in your league.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!

ROUND THREE
1. Greg Jennings, WR, GB
2. Ryan Grant, RB, GB
3. Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA
4. Miles Austin, WR, DAL
5. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
6. DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
7. Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
8. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
9. Jahvid Best, RB, DET
10. Chris Wells, RB, ARZ
11. Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
12. Sidney Rice, WR, MIN

Notes: Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson and Chris Wells all get significant boosts in non-PPR. Beanie clearly has the most upside of the three. ... This draft obviously took place before the Sidney Rice hip news broke. ... Miles Austin and Reggie Wayne look like terrific values this late. ... Knowshon Moreno's hamstring pull isn't a concern this far away from the season. ... I'm not crazy about DeSean Jackson this early, but he is surely a better pick in non-PPR.

ROUND FOUR
1. Matt Forte, RB, CHI
2. Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
3. Marques Colston, WR, NO
4. Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
5. Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL
6. Steve Smith, WR, CAR
7. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
8. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
9. Arian Foster, RB, HOU
10. Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA
11. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
12. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

Notes: Matt Schaub, who led the league in passing yards last year, goes 1 1/2 rounds after that QB run started. ... Jay Cutler this high is a real reach, but someone has been reading articles about what Mike Martz can do for quarterbacks. ... The cat is wayyyy out of the bag on Arian Foster. I thought that targeting him in Round 5 would be safe, but it looks like I'm going to have go higher. ... Steve Smith (CAR) is good value here. That fractured arm won't be bothering him at all come Week 1.

ROUND FIVE
1. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
2. Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN
3. Ricky Williams, RB, MIA
4. Antonio Gates, TE, SD
5. Dallas Clark, TE, IND
6. Jason Witten, TE, DAL
7. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC
8. Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
9. Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
10. Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
11. Vernon Davis, TE, SF
12. Mike Wallace, WR, Pit

Notes: The tight end run starts here in most drafts I've seen. It's a little surprising to see Jason Witten with the first group, but if he's actually used as a pass-catcher in the red zone this year he will be a beast. ... Jermichael Finley is a can't miss lock that everyone knows about. Be prepared to get him on this first run if you want him. ... Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks and Mike Wallace represent three of our favorite breakout receivers. ... Vincent Jackson trade rumors are heating up a little, but there is still no resolution in sight and he's also suspended for three games. There's just too much reliable talent around to gamble on Jackson this high. ... The owner that took Ronnie Brown a round earlier quickly backs him up with Ricky Williams. I like it, one of them will get hurt at some point.

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ROUND SIX
1. Brent Celek, TE, PHI
2. Steve Smith, WR, NYG
3. Marion Barber, RB, DAL
4. Joseph Addai, RB, IND
5. Pierre Garcon, WR, IND
6. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
7. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
8. Justin Forsett, RB, SEA
9. Johnny Knox, WR, CHI
10. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL
11. Wes Welker, WR, NE
12. Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE

Notes: The Ahmad Bradshaw hype is in full swing now, so getting him a full two rounds after Brandon Jacobs is great value. ... Steve Smith (NYG) takes a big hit in non-PPR leagues, but it's still surprising to see him go after Hakeem Nicks. ... I love Justin Forsett's talent, but this Seattle backfield is heading for a three-headed monster. Upside is capped. ... Brent Celek is Kevin Kolb's best friend. Don't forget it. ... I'm not surprised at all to see Johnny Knox come off the board this early. He's gone from late-round flier to No. 1 breakout candidate in a few short months. Reach to get him.

Editor's Note: For constantly updating rankings, projections, cheatsheets, tiers and more, get the 2010 Draft Guide!

ROUND SEVEN
1. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
2. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
3. Hines Ward, WR, PIT
4. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE
5. Brett Favre, QB, MIN
6. Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
7. Santana Moss, WR, WAS
8. Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
9. Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
10. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
11. Michael Bush, RB, OAK
12. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

Notes: Percy Harvin is a steal here now thanks to Sidney Rice's injury. ... Owners looking for running back help in this range are going to be speculating heavily. Darren McFadden has the most talent in the tier, but continues to show very little. He has a big shot Saturday when he'll start the Raiders' third preseason game. ... Montario Hardesty (knee) has a couple weeks to get his momentum back. ... Kenny Britt is no longer on my list of players to target. The dude just can't keep his head on straight long enough to earn the trust of his teammates/coaches. ... Hines Ward and Santana Moss are two of the rare "veteran sleepers."

ROUND 8
1. Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
2. Robert Meachem, WR, NO
3. Zach Miller, TE, OAK
4. Devin Hester, WR, CHI
5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, SEA
6. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
7. Reggie Bush, RB, NO
8. Clinton Portis, RB, WAS
9. Donald Driver, WR, GB
10. Kevin Kolb, QB, PHI
11. Owen Daniels, TE, HOU
12. Kellen Winslow, TE, TB

Notes: I've seen Zach Miller go as high as the sixth round, so adjust accordingly. He should lead the Raiders in targets and catches this year. ... Owen Daniels and Kellen Winslow are major injury question marks, but Daniels has more upside. ... Reggie Bush should have an expanded red-zone role, but he's tough to swallow in non-PPR. ... Love the value of Kevin Kolb here, more than four rounds after Jay Cutler. ... It's odd to see a clear starting running back like Clinton Portis go so late, but this is the correct range thanks to his eroding skills and brutal offensive line.

ROUND 9
1. Lee Evans, WR, BUF
2. Chris Cooley, TE, WAS
3. Terrell Owens, WR, CIN
4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL
6. Santonio Holmes, WR, NYJ
7. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN
8. Carson Palmer, QB, CIN
9. Laurence Maroney, RB, NE
10. Donald Brown, RB, IND
11. Devin Aromashodu, WR, CHI
12. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ

Notes: If you want to wait on your tight end, Chris Cooley is a great one to target. ... Interesting strategy by Team 4: Take Ben Roethlisberger as your QB1 and back it up with Donovan McNabb for the first five weeks of the season. I can dig it, although I prefer Matthew Stafford over McNabb. ... Terrell Owens is much better value here in Round 9 than Chad Ochocinco was in Round 5.

ROUND 10
1. Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN
2. Eli Manning, QB, NYG
3. Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ
4. Eagles D
5. Carnell Williams, RB, TB
6. Jets D
7. Darren Sproles, RB, SD
8. Thomas Jones, RB, KC
9. Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS
10. Tim Hightower, RB, ARZ
11. Leon Washington, RB, SEA
12. Kevin Walter, WR, HOU

Notes: Bernard Berrian gets a boost thanks to the Sidney Rice news. ... The first defenses come off the board here, and our top-ranked unit goes first. The Jets are a much better choice in real life than in fantasy. ... Kevin Walter remains in front of Jacoby Jones on the depth chart, but it's a little surprising to see the veteran with less upside come off the board first.

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ROUND 11
1. Kareem Huggins, RB, TB
2. Vince Young, QB, TEN
3. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
4. Mike Williams, WR, TB
5. Derrick Mason, WR, BAL
6. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
7. Bernard Scott, RB, CIN
8. Julian Edelman, WR, NE
9. John Carlson, TE, SEA
10. Packers D
11. Vikings D
12. Cowboys D

Notes: Crazy amounts of camp buzz around Kareem Huggins, and it's warranted. He's passed Derrick Ward for the No. 2 job. ... Vince Young and Matthew Stafford represent high-end QB2s with upside. ... The last of the "every-week" defenses come off the board here. After this, I'd mostly play matchups with my defense. ... Great value on John Carlson here as a TE2.

ROUND 12
1. Chad Henne, QB, MIA
2. Chester Taylor, RB, CHI
3. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE
4. Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ
5. Steelers D
6. Jabar Gaffney, WR, DEN
7. 49ers D
8. Donnie Avery, WR, STL
9. Legedu Naanee, WR, SD
10. Ravens D
11. Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN
12. Jason Snelling, RB, ATL

Notes: Jabar Gaffney and Legedu Nannee stand out as great flier picks. ... The handcuffing starts as Adrian Peterson's owner wisely snags Toby Gerhart. ... Mark Sanchez is pretty weak as a QB2, I'd rather roll the dice on a RB or WR here instead.

Editor's Note: Create your own fantasy league at myfantasyleague.com!

ROUND 13
1. Greg Olsen, TE, CHI
2. Saints D
3. Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC
4. Willis McGahee, RB, BAL
5. Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU
6. Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF
7. Austin Collie, WR, IND
8. Garrett Hartley, K, NO
9. Golden Tate, WR, SEA
10. Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
11. Steve Slaton, RB, HOU
12. Heath Miller, TE, PIT

Notes: The first kicker off the board is rightfully Garrett Hartley, who is a lock as a top-5 fantasy kicker this season. ... The luster has worn off on Golden Tate as he's been going the wrong way on the depth chart. ... Jacoby Jones could prove to be the steal of the draft. ... More good handcuffing here with Rashad Jennings and Willis McGahee. ... Greg Olsen is worth a gamble here thanks to his surprising practice usage. But don't take him too much higher in a Mike Martz offense.

ROUND 14
1. Chaz Schilens, WR, OAK
2. Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE
3. Ryan Longwell, K, MIN
4. Nate Kaeding, K, SD
5. Laurent Robinson, WR, STL
6. Rob Bironas, K, TEN
7. David Akers, K, PHI
8. Chargers D
9. Giants D
10. Mason Crosby, K, GB
11. Robbie Gould, K, CHI
12. Bills D

Notes: Chaz Schilens would be a No. 1 receiver if he could ever get on the field, but don't hold your breath. ... With Donnie Avery’s knee injury, Laurent Robinson is locked in as a No. 1 receiver. ... It's impossible to predict which of these kickers will end up best. All are fine picks.

ROUND 15
Coming soon...

 

[HacheMan]

One More Chance
If Jets coach Rex Ryan was watching the battle between Michael Bush and Darren McFadden, he'd likely call it a "pillow fight."

First, McFadden was sidelined by a hamstring injury and Bush was just mediocre. Then, McFadden returned and was expected to start Saturday, but didn't. Bush got the nod against the 49ers and proceeded to break his thumb. McFadden took full advantage of the opportunity by rushing seven times for nine yards. Also, starting quarterback Jason Campbell hurt his right (throwing) wrist. If he misses any time, it would send the whole offense reeling.

This is the Raiders, after all, so we shouldn't really be surprised. They leave behind a wake of wreckage wherever they go. But that doesn't mean we should ignore the situation come draft day.

Most importantly, Bush is questionable for Week 1 after undergoing a procedure on his left thumb. He won't need a cast and may be able to practice with some extra padding on his hand. The real question is if McFadden simply can't play even when healthy? He has shown an inability to break tackles or stay healthy since being the No. 4 overall pick in 2008. Bush has clearly looked more capable of being a feature back.

Despite all of McFadden's faults, he remains tempting because of his open-field skills and naturally "stunning" ability as a receiver out of the backfield. With Campbell (hopefully) under center instead of inept JaMarcus Russell, there should be more space outside for McFadden to operate.

Bottom line: Expect a timeshare, with Bush starting but McFadden being used as a receiver and outside runner often. Bush is a value pick in non-PPR (point per reception) formats, while McFadden is the upside gamble pick in PPR leagues.


Editor's Note: To see exact projections for McFadden, Bush and the rest of the running backs, check out the 2010 Draft Guide!


NEWS OF THE WEEK #1
Percy Harvin (migraines) returned to the field on Saturday night and caught two passes for 30 yards. More encouragingly, he said that doctors have found a primary cause of those migraines.

This is a prime opportunity to get a discount on a player while other owners run for the hills. At this point, it's only a marginal gamble that the migraines will cause Harvin to miss a game this season. With Sidney Rice (hip) out, Harvin is a terrific value in the middle rounds of all formats.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #2
In case you missed it on Saturday night, Arian Foster can really play. This isn't just a case of a guy getting an opportunity and ramming it into the middle of the line 15 times a game like Jamal Lewis circa 2009. Foster is going to make things happen, as evidenced by his 18 carry, 110 yard, 1 TD performance against the Cowboys.

The biggest problem now is that soaring ADP (average draft position). He's been going in the fourth round of all drafts I've seen lately, so adjust accordingly.

NEWS OF THE WEEK #3
The Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson saga is ongoing and Ken Whisenhunt isn't tipping his hand as to when he'll make an announcement. Look for Anderson to be under center come Week 1, and as I mentioned over on Pancake Blocks, I think this helps Larry Fitzgerald. Anderson is more willing to take chances and look down the field with that rocket arm.

Editor's Note: Did you know you can get the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide on your iPhone and iPad? Get our Top 200 rankings, Cheatsheets, Tiers, and more in a convenient on-the-go package!


<BIG>DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS</BIG>

RUNNING BACKS: FIRST DOWN
Brandon Jacobs started Saturday and we can fully expect an even split with Ahmad Bradshaw going forward. ... Leon Washington started on Saturday, but this backfield will almost certainly be situational. ... Laurence Maroney has barely played in the last two exhibition games and appears to be third or fourth on the depth chart. ... Ryan Mathews got two carries from inside the 3-yard line in the second exhibition game.

RUNNING BACKS: SECOND DOWN
Chris Ivory has looked extremely impressive and has his nose in from for the Saints No. 3 RB job. ... Rashad Jennings is the official handcuff to Maurice Jones-Drew. ... Kenneth Darby was the second running back on the field Thursday night, ahead of Chris Ogbonnaya. ... Derrick Ward came to camp out of shape and didn't do much on Saturday. His roster spot remains tenuous.

<!--RW-->

RECEIVERS: FIRST DOWN
There's real concern that John Carlson won't be a major part of the Seahawks' passing game again. ... DeSean Jackson will be the Eagles' primary punt returner. ... Antonio Bryant was cut, locking Jordan Shipley in as the Bengals' No. 3 receiver. ... Johnny Knox and Devin Hester have been the first-team wideouts throughout the entire preseason. ... With Greg Jennings resting, James Jones started on Thursday. ... Sammie Stroughter appears locked in as the starting flanker opposite impressive rookie Mike Williams. ... Coach Gary Kubiak says he has three starting wide receivers, confirming Jacoby Jones will have a major role.

RECEIVERS: SECOND DOWN
Golden Tate has fallen to fifth on the depth chart. ... Laveranues Coles was cut by the Jets and his career could be done. ... Greg Camarillo is already pushing Greg Lewis for the No. 3 WR job. ... Mike Williams appears to have the Seahawks' No. 3 gig locked up. ... Joey Galloway continues to run as a starter, but we don't expect that to last long. ... Davone Bess has won the punt returner job. ... Danny Amendola is getting the first crack at replacing Donnie Avery in the starting lineup. ... Emmanuel Sanders is gaining on Antwaan Randle El for the No. 3 gig. ... The Vincent Jackson situation remains at a standstill.


Editor's Note: Create your own fantasy league at myfantasyleague.com!


QUARTERBACKS
Byron Leftwich will almost certainly start over Dennis Dixon in Week 1. ... David Carr has won the 49ers backup job. ... Jimmy Clausen has moved ahead of Hunter Cantwell for the No. 2 job.


<BIG>INJURY QUICK SLANTS</BIG>

RUNNING BACKS: FIRST DOWN
Clinton Portis (ankle) is expected to be ready for Week 1, but the injuries are starting already. ... Jamaal Charles (arm) just landed awkwardly on his funny bone. He is fine. ... Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) has been ruled out of the final preseason game. ... Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) is experiencing simple soreness and will be held out of the final two preseason games. ... Ronnie Brown (foot) says he feels 100 percent.

RUNNING BACKS: SECOND DOWN
Steve Slaton (turf toe) is questionable for Week 1. ... Jerious Norwood (hip) finally got back in action, but we still prefer Jason Snelling as Michael Turner's handcuff. ... Joseph Addai (concussion) will be fine well before Week 1. ... Marshawn Lynch (ankle) still hasn't resumed full practices. ... Montario Hardesty (knee) did not play on Saturday, but is back at a limited practice. ... Jonathan Dwyer (shoulder) is back at practice but remains behind Isaac Redman for the No. 2 job.

RECEIVERS: FIRST DOWN
Chaz Schilens (knee) is predictably out 3-6 weeks, locking Louis Murphy into the starting flanker gig. ... Donnie Avery (ACL) is out for the year, making Laurent Robinson the No. 1 WR in St. Louis. ... Donte Stallworth (foot) is out until at least Week 9. ... Owen Daniels (knee) will be limited to 15-20 snaps in Week 1, if he even plays. ... Dez Bryant (ankle) has been cleared to play in Thursday's preseason finale. ... Sidney Rice (hip) will be on crutches for at least eight weeks. ... Larry Fitzgerald (knee) was spotted running sprints and will certainly be 100 percent for Week 1.

RECEIVERS: SECOND DOWN
Michael Crabtree (neck strain) sat out again Saturday, but there's still no real concern. ... Early Doucet (abdomen) returned to action on Saturday. ... Demaryius Thomas (foot) avoided a stress fracture but remains hobbled and undraftable. ... Kellen Winslow (knee) got some preseason action this week, confirming he's a full go for Week 1.

QUARTERBACKS
Jason Campbell (wrist) is tentatively expected to be ready for Week 1. ... Donovan McNabb (ankle) is officially questionable for Week 1, but expect him to be out there. ... A.J. Feeley (thumb) is out for the preseason finale, almost certainly locking Sam Bradford in as the Week 1 starter. ... Josh Freeman (thumb) is going to have to play in pain if he returns for the opener.