FROM MY FREIND NICK:thumbsup:ENJOY
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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH [/FONT]
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BAD BODY CLOCK SHOWS UP AGAIN IN THE NFL [/FONT]
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A couple of weeks ago I talked in a national publication about how oddsmakers in Las Vegas and Reno are defenseless against “bad body clock” bets. They just can’t put the “right” number on a game like this because not enough people are betting the tendency! [/FONT]
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That was right after California lost at Maryland as a big favorite in college football. I also referenced the big Seattle loss at Buffalo in the NFL that we had already seen. [/FONT]
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This past Sunday, two more jump out as very obvious. Not only were they early kicks for West Coast teams…but they involved flying from one coast all the way over to the other.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego (-6) lost to Miami 17-10, and got drilled by a lot more than the final score indicates. The West Coast sleepy-heads were outgained 390-202, and outrushed 157-60. That’s not supposed to happen with LaDainian Tomlinson in uniform! [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle (+7) lost to the NY Giants 44-6, and arguably lost by more than the final score makes it sound! New York won total yardage 523-187. It didn’t even look like an NFL game. Note that a lot of sharps took a bad hit here. The public bet New York up to 7.5 on game day, and many Wise Guys stepped in big on Seattle figuring that half a point off a key number was too good to pass up. Even the Wise Guys forget about the bad body clock sometimes. [/FONT]
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(Oh, while we’re on that game, the sportsbooks took a big hit even though the Wise Guys lost because the public LOVED the Giants. That means they included them in a lot of parlay and teaser plays that typically cashed. It was a big Sunday for the squares thanks to the G-men). [/FONT]
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Those are both double digit misses from the market spreads, with San Diego missing by 13 points and Seattle missing by a whopping 31 points. Note how both teams started slowly and just never got going. [/FONT]
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FIRST QUARTER
New York 14, Seattle 3
Favored San Diego 3, Miami 3 [/FONT]
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HALFTIME SCORE
New York 27, Seattle 6
Miami 17, San Diego 3 [/FONT]
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The games were pretty much over in the first 30 minutes. In fact, the home teams had covered the full game spreads by two touchdowns or more at halftime! [/FONT]
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So, the guys betting the “bad body clock” theory on quarters and halves also cashed their tickets. There just wasn’t much to sweat here. Unless you’re a bookmaker! [/FONT]
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How can the oddsmakers put up the right number in a game like this? [/FONT]
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If Seattle no-shows, like they did in Buffalo too, then you could probably argue that the “right” line is something like 17-21 points. Normally spreads like that are reserved for the very best against the very worst. Well, the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champs, and Seattle playing at 10 in the morning with jet lag might well be one of the worst. [/FONT]
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Imagine that the sportsbooks DID put a line like 17-21 on the game! If the sharps came in heavy at +7.5, the action would obviously have been ridiculously one-sided on the Seahawks. Sportsbooks will accept a level of risk, but not THAT much risk. [/FONT]
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What about the other game. Can you make Miami a favorite over San Diego? The Chargers were playing their second straight road game after a road divisional win. Situational handicappers might argue Miami WAS the true favorite in the game (I heard some guys make that very point last week). But, if the sportsbooks even drop it to -3 or pick-em for the Chargers, the public action is so heavy that the books aren’t remotely balanced. A perfect balance is rare. Sportsbooks don’t what THAT big a position on any one team, no matter what eventually happens in the game. [/FONT]
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Because hardly anyone is betting the “bad body clock” angle aggressively, the market prices just don’t incorporate it right now. [/FONT]
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Should you be looking at the system when the Oakland Raiders visit the New Orleans Saints this weekend? The kneejerk answer would be yes, of course! But, let’s remember that:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oakland busted the system with a near upset at Buffalo a few weeks ago. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oakland also won an early kick at Kansas City, though that was only a trip halfway across the country. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oakland had a bye last week (though Seattle was coming off a bye and it didn’t help them). [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New Orleans has a short preparation week after a Monday Night game. [/FONT]
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It’s not the ideal go-against situation. Oakland has established success in this kind of spot, and could be helped by the bye week. It’s also a trip only halfway across the country. Personally, I think the approach is best when the West Coast teams have to go all the way to the East Coast (which we saw in both examples last Sunday). I do know some guys who also include the Mountain Time Zone teams (Arizona and Denver) when they start early…and guys who only focus on the clock and not the geography. To each his own. Pick an approach you’re comfortable with. [/FONT]
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Just don’t ignore this factor! It’s a proven winner. And, it’s also something to look for in non-conference college basketball. The season starts in November, and the first 4-6 weeks is when opportunities like this pop up on Saturdays in hoops. [/FONT]
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Let me leave you with a list of possibilities for the next few weeks: [/FONT]
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SUNDAY
Oakland at New Orleans (not ideal) [/FONT]
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OCTOBER 19TH
San Diego at Buffalo (horrible spot for the Chargers off New England)
San Francisco at the NY Giants [/FONT]
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OCTOBER 26TH
Oakland at Baltimore (Raiders might as well move East!)
San Diego at New Orleans (no break for the Bolts)
Arizona at Carolina (if you play the Mountain teams too) [/FONT]
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NOVEMBER 2ND
Arizona at St. Louis (early, but not much of a trip) [/FONT]
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NOVEMBER 9TH
Seattle at Miami (3rd cross country trip of the year for Seattle) [/FONT]
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NOVEMBER 16TH
Denver at Atlanta
Oakland at Miami (Raiders really racking up frequent flyer miles) [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
I’m not saying all of the Eastern teams will win and cover these games. You have to handicap each game as it comes. But, they will have a potential edge that you should be aware of as you study the possibilities. I don’t think we’ve seen the last body clock blowout of 2008. [/FONT]